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Electorate swings

The table below shows the percentage point swing to/against the ALP in the 2006 State election and the percentage point swing required for each district to change hands at the State election in 2010. The table is based on the two party preferred vote (i.e. ALP vs Liberal/National), and is ranked from safest seat to least safe. Cases where the swing is calculated on another basis are noted.

Labor
Liberal
National
Independents

LABOR: 55 seats

Electoral districtSwing to/against ALP in 2006

Swing required to change district in 2010

Broadmeadows  1.11% 31.9% to Liberal
Thomastown  -0.67% 31.08% to Liberal
Kororoit  0.51% 25.57% to Liberal
Preston  -0.45% 25.31% to Liberal
Footscray  -0.23% 24.68% to Liberal
Derrimut  -3% 24.31% to Liberal
Williamstown  -1.46% 24.26% to Liberal
Pascoe Vale  -1.42% 22.79% to Liberal
Lyndhurst  -3.6% 21.49% to Liberal
Mill Park  -5.99% 20.8% to Liberal
Clayton  -3.57% 20.28% to Liberal
Altona  -4.48% 20.22% to Liberal
Yuroke  -2.69% 20.2% to Liberal
Keilor  1.37% 19.42% to Liberal
Dandenong  -1.64% 18.68% to Liberal
Lara  -4.41% 17.94% to Liberal
Mulgrave  -0.45% 15.78% to Liberal
Bundoora  -2.45% 15.13% to Liberal
Melton  -1.78% 13.55% to Liberal
Tarneit  -4.93% 12.48% to Liberal
Oakleigh  -2.84% 12.38% to Liberal
Essendon  -4.22% 11.71% to Liberal
Cranbourne  0.5% 11.3% to Liberal
Niddrie  -5.38% 11.23% to Liberal
Narre Warren South  -1.66% 10.95% to Liberal
Bendigo West  -5.38% 10.57% to Liberal
Ivanhoe  -2.04% 10.46% to Liberal
Albert Park  -2.81% 9.7% to Liberal
Narre Warren North  -0.47% 9.24% to Liberal
Northcote (1)  0.62% 8.53% to Greens
Geelong  0.23% 8.34% to Liberal
Macedon  -1.08% 8.18% to Liberal
Bellarine  -0.3% 7.96% to Liberal
Yan Yean  -1.62% 7.92% to Liberal
Carrum  -5.45% 6.72% to Liberal
Monbulk  -1.58% 6.69% to Liberal
Seymour  -2.83% 6.67% to Liberal
Ballarat East  -0.97% 6.65% to Liberal
Ballarat West  -2.46% 6.55% to Liberal
Eltham  1.69% 6.49% to Liberal
Bentleigh  1.58% 6.33% to Liberal
Bendigo East  -7.57% 5.4% to Liberal
Ripon  -3.08% 4.36% to Liberal
Burwood  -1.35% 3.75% to Liberal
Richmond (2)  0.55% 3.65% to Greens
Brunswick (3)  -5.66% 3.64% to Greens
Prahran  -0.87% 3.56% to Liberal
Mordialloc  -0.99% 3.55% to Liberal
Frankston  -2.55% 3.23% to Liberal
South Barwon  -2.73% 2.29% to Liberal
Melbourne (4)  0.09% 2.02% to Greens
Mitcham  -5.71% 1.98% to Liberal
Forest Hill  -5.01% 0.78% to Liberal
Gembrook  -0.87% 0.72% to Liberal
Mount Waverley  -1.98% 0.32% to Liberal

(1) Northcote: Swing calculated on ALP vs Greens basis. On ALP vs Liberal basis, 1.97% swing to ALP. Swing required 30.3% to Liberal.
(2) Richmond: Swing calculated on ALP vs Greens basis. On ALP vs Liberal basis, 0.38% swing against ALP. Swing required 28.18% to Liberal.
(3) Brunswick: Swing calculated on ALP vs Greens basis. On ALP vs Liberal basis, 0.19% swing against ALP. Swing required 27.86% to Liberal.
(4) Melbourne: Swing calculated on ALP vs Greens basis. On ALP vs Liberal basis, 0.74% swing against ALP. Swing required 21.94% to Liberal.

LIBERAL: 23 seats

Electoral districtSwing to/against ALP in 2006

Swing required to change district in 2010

Hawthorn  -6.38% 12.27% to ALP
Mornington  -10.03% 11.86% to ALP
Malvern  -1.14% 11.33% to ALP
Scoresby  -7.85% 11.18% to ALP
Brighton  -3.52% 10.94% to ALP
Polwarth  -1.16% 10.7% to ALP
Kew  -3.58% 9.57% to ALP
Nepean  -9.21% 9.39% to ALP
Warrandyte  -2.64% 9% to ALP
Sandringham  -5.65% 8.69% to ALP
Bulleen  -5.79% 8.44% to ALP
Doncaster  -7.35% 8.13% to ALP
Benambra  -3.68% 7.72% to ALP
Caulfield  -5.38% 7.64% to ALP
Bass  -4.88% 5.53% to ALP
Box Hill  -4.13% 5.23% to ALP
South-West Coast  -3.27% 4.02% to ALP
Bayswater  -5.63% 2.9% to ALP
Evelyn  -3.11% 2.79% to ALP
Narracan  -9.47% 2.66% to ALP
Hastings  -1.84% 1% to ALP
Kilsyth  -2.44% 0.36% to ALP
Ferntree Gully  -2.32% 0.05% to ALP

NATIONAL: 9 seats

Electoral districtSwing to/against ALP in 2006

Swing required to change district in 2010

Swan Hill   -9.25% 23.41% to ALP
Lowan  -5% 22.09% to ALP
Murray Valley   -7.87% 21.77% to ALP
Benalla  -15.54% 17.52% to ALP
Shepparton (1)  -9.52% 16.68% to Liberal
Gippsland South   -4.96% 15.82% to ALP
Mildura (2)  -13.98% 6.09% to SAVAGE, Russell
Rodney (3)  -8.39% 4.4% to Liberal
Morwell   -6.98% 2.13% to ALP

(1) Shepparton: Swing required calculated on National vs Liberal basis. On ALP vs National basis, swing required is 24.66% to ALP.
(2) Mildura: Swing required calculated on National vs Savage basis. On ALP vs National basis, swing required is 20.70% to ALP.
(3) Rodney: Swing required calculated on National vs Liberal basis. On ALP vs National basis, swing required is 24.82% to ALP.

INDEPENDENTS: 1 seat

Electoral districtSwing to/against ALP in 2006

Swing required to change district in 2010

Gippsland East (1)  -3.36% 9.12% to Liberal

(1) Gippsland East: Swing required calculated on Ingram vs National basis. On ALP vs Liberal basis, swing required is 13.55% to ALP.
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