SUNDAY AM: Universal's American Gangster was a real monster at the domestic box office this weekend, gunning down all the competition for $46.3 million in gross receipts at 3,054 theaters. The Imagine production filled with Oscar winners & nominees -- written by Steven Zaillian, directed by Ridley Scott and starring Denzel Washington and Russell Crowe -- raked in $16 million Friday and $17.8 million Saturday (up 11%). That makes this biopic drama the 2nd biggest R-rated motion picture opening in history for a movie that's more than 2 1/2-hours long (behind Troy's $46.8M but ahead of Gladiator's $34.8M). It's also Denzel's and Russell's career best opening ever, and the second biggest drama in history to open in November (behind Eight Mile's $51.2M but ahead of Jarhead's $27.7M).

"This is as great as I could possibly have dreamed," a studio source told me. Indeed, there were huge sighs of relief around Universal which had been trying bigtime all week to lower expectations for American Gangster's debut for a myriad reasons. Not the least of which was the sudden appearance of a pirated copy on the Internet, plus a fall slump with many R-rated dramas failing to gain traction. But American Gangster was the highest grossing film of Fall 2007 (ahead of Saw IV's $31.7M), its large gross generated by an audience that was more than 50% over 30 years old. But this weekend ends all that with the biggest anticipated box office from Friday through Sunday since 2007's record-breaking summer. Busy like a bee -- specifically Jerry Seinfeld's PG-rated Bee Movie which opened a big No. 2 this weekend. My sources say the DreamWorks Animation toon distributed by Paramount took in around $10.2 million Friday from 3,928 venues but then really buzzed during Saturday kiddie matinees to take in $17 million (up a whopping 66% that day). This animated pic aimed at a four-quadrant audience enjoyed a honey of a $39.1 million weekend. Still, with a running time of only 90 minutes, Bee Movie was able to squeeze in many more showings than American Gangster which clocks in at 2 hours 38 minutes.

Both big hits had very different marketing strategies. The team behind American Gangster started way back at the very beginning of the summer with only one trailer (tagged to Ocean's Thirteen) and then staying with just that ad until only two weeks ago. This was a major departure for the studio. But a single clip especially resonated -- bad guy Denzel showing what a good son he is by buying his mother a house. "This most talked-about scene was one of many powerful  suggestions of the complexity of the film," a Universal insider told me. The team behind the movie also wanted to draw on all the similarities to last year's Oscar-winner The Departed, which also centered on cops and gangsters, also starred marquee actors and had a famous director, also earned an R rating, and also received stellar reviews (80% positive for American Gangster on Rotten Tomatoes). The Departed not only opened to $26.7 million from almost the same number of theaters but went on to earn $132+M domestically and $289+M worldwide. Icing on American Gangster's cake was when hip hop impresario JayZ personally created an album inspired by it. And its plot about a Harlem crime boss, plus young African American actors in supporting roles, appealed to urban audiences. Moviegoers were ethnically diverse with 44% Caucasians and 36% African Americans.

In contrast, Jerry Seinfeld, who voiced and co-wrote and produced, went anywhere and everywhere promoting his new movie almost to the point of overexposure. (Jerry got busted for his arrogant appearance on Larry King who's part of the pic; the viral video was all over the Internet Friday.)  He also did anything and everything to market it, including pitch MickeyD. As a result, the Bee Movie is that rare toon trying to cash in on both the kid market (with animation) and the adult market (with Seinfeld fans). "There's nothing traditionally family about Jerry's position in the marketplace," an exec told me tonight. So, despite so-so reviews (55% positive) and no records set, Bee Movie did B+ biz. I've learned the pic proved strongest with moviegoers under 25, especially young families and young parents. It skewed slightly more female than male. Across the board, the biggest draw was its type of movie, animation. And the No. 2 reason was Seinfeld himself. "Jerry was so intrinsically linked to the movie," a Paramount insider told me today.

The only other newcomer at the box office was New Line's Martian Child starring John Cusack in what barely qualified as a Lifetime TV movie instead of in 2,020 big screen theaters. It's yet another flop for Bob Shaye's company, coming in only 6th with $1.1 million Friday and dropping to 7th after Saturday's paltry $1.5 million for what was a disastrous $3.5 mil weekend.

The rest of the top 10 were familiar titles. Here's the chart:

1. 1. American Gangster  $16M Fri, $17.8M Sat, [wkd $46.3M], (cume $46.3M)
2. 2. Bee Movie  $10.2M Fri, $17M Sat, [wkd $39.1M], (cume $39.1M)
3. 3. Saw IV  $3.6M Fri, $4.4M Sat, [wkd $10.6M], (cume $50.6M)
4. 4. Dan In Real Life  $2.6M Fri, $3.6M Sat [wkd $8.1M], (cume $22.9M)
5. 5. 30 Days Of Night  $1.2M Fri, $1.6M Sat, [wkd $4M], (cume $34.2M)
6. 6. The Game Plan  $1.0M Fri, $1.9M Sat, [wkd $3.8M], (cume $81.9M)
7. 7. Martian Child  $1.1M Fri, $1.5M Sat, [wkd $3.6M], (cume $3.6M)
8. 8. Michael Clayton  $853K Fri, $1.3M Sat, [wkd $2.9M], (cume $33.2M)
9. 9. Why Did I Get Married?  $751K Fri, $1.3M Sat, [wkd $2.7M], (cume $51.2M)
10. 10. Gone Baby Gone  $687K Fri, $1M Sat, [wkd $2.3M], (cume $14.8M)

 

A foamer on the roof of Jeffrey Katzenberg's house on Malibu's Carbon Beach protects it from burning embers. "It's been very touch and go for the last 24 hours. It was literally right up to the doorsteps yesterday afternoon," Katzenberg, chief executive of Dreamworks Animation, told Reuters today. "I'm in Chicago right now, so I don't know the latest, but it's obviously very, very scary for all of us out there."

Here's some Warner news that Jeff Robinov wouldn't dare deny and Variety wouldn't dare print (if it even knows): he expects his long-delayed promotion to finally come through in January of 2008. That's right, the Warner Bros Pictures president of production is telling people the big announcement which was promised him 3 years ago will be made then. Which means that his nightmare of running in place behind Warner Bros Entertainment Inc President and COO Alan Horn will finally end. Unless, of course, something untoward happens to make his bosses change their mind about him. (I wonder what that could be? Loose lips?)

You'd think that after greenlighting so many films that haven't performed at the box office, making so many unnecessary remakes and readying more, and failing to create any new franchises, that he'd lose his job. His Batman Begins 1 and 2 are just rewarmed Daly-Semel as was his Superman Returns not yet worthy of a sequel. He inherited Harry Potter and Ocean's Eleven. He never saw the Oscar potential of Clint Eastwood's Mystic River or Million Dollar Baby because he knew his boss doesn't like dark films. (Horn likes four-quadrant movies he can sit in his living room and watch with his two daughters. Which doesn't make him a bad movie exec, either. Also, Horn frequently says The Last Samurai was one of his favorite movies of all time, unable to see its obvious flaws because he has a third-degree black belt in karate.)

But loyalty and patience and off-the-balance-sheet financing are more prized at Warner Bros Pictures than performance or creativity. (Which is why I pity those pathetic Time Warner shareholders.) Even successful execs who don't observe the strictly enforced chain of command there are quickly axed. Remember when Lorenzo di Bonaventura went behind his boss's back to complain about Horn to Dick Parsons? Ouch! Remember when Mark Gill began to chafe under Robinov and Horn and exercised independence? Ouch!

"This is a company that wants to look like it's run by a bunch of people who have a creative vision," an insider tells me. "But the truth of the matter is that Jeff will get his promotion because he's in complete submission to quarterly reports and bottom line. Decisions get made on the basis of financial projections without taking into account the actual content. They look at columns of numbers. Nobody ever says, 'Does anyone want to see this movie?'"

Robinov joined Warner Bros Pictures in 1997 from ICM as senior vp for production, then moved up to exec vp for production in November 2000, and landed as president of production in July 2002. When Lorenzo got fired, no one could quite believe that Robinov was given that job because of his personality, or lack thereof. People frequently comment how Robinov has little visible charm and lacks the polish to be a corporate player. "Alan Horn is a gentleman," a source tells me, "and you simply can't find someone who is more the polar opposite in terms of temperament, demeanor, and presentability than Jeff Robinov."

Over the years, Robinov has watched while most of his contemporaries at other studies have been upped or pushed out. Three years ago, Robinov had a succeeding slate of pics and expected to move atop Warner Bros Pictures. But his movies have been failing since 2006, and that's making him increasingly tense and uncommunicative and moody. (He also sweats profusely, running his wet hands along his shaved dome when he gets nervous.) Because he knows full well that his boss Alan Horn hates reading bad press about the studio. And because Robinov himself is terrified of reporters and clumsy dealing with them.

It was always going to be difficult anyway to promote Robinov because of his friction with president of domestic marketing Dawn Taubin, who has long had Horn's ear. But the logjam has taken its toll on widely liked and respected exec vp Kevin McCormick.

It's not that there's pressure from within to promote Robinov so much as there's pressure on boss Alan Horn from the top of Warner Bros. Specifically, Barry Meyer has been urging Horn to take over more of the workload beyond just film. People forget that Alan's job is to be president/COO to Barry's chairman/CEO of Warner Bros Entertainment Inc. That's right: to not just run Warner Pictures, but to run Warner Bros as a whole and help oversee the studio and movies and TV and DVDs and new media and theme parks. But Horn remains too film-centric in Meyer's view. "Alan had to be willing to shift his focus and broaden it and at the same time decentralize the movie side," a source says. "Until he did that, Jeff could never move up to that larger role."

Horn has agreed, so Robinov will be upped. Unless something happens to derail it.

1. The Reality Behind Jeff Robinov's "Denial"
2. Warner's Robinov Bitchslaps Film Women 

Lore has it that, if a sucker is born every minute, all eventually land in Hollywood. After exhausting the German dentist money, then the American tycoon scion money, then the Greenwich hedge fund money, now Tinseltown is exploiting the Abu Dhabi real estate money. Warner Bros announced today a "long-term, multi-faceted strategic alliance" calling for a theme park, hotel, multiplex cinemas and joint fund to finance films, develop video games, and build out the infrastructure for Abu Dhabi's new media. UPDATE: I'm told this is a multibillion dollar deal, with the film and video game funds alone worth $500 million each. The Warner pact is with Abu Dhabi’s leading real estate developer ALDAR and the newly established Abu Dhabi Media Company. According to the studio's PR, the deal was unveiled today by Barry Meyer and Alan Horn with Ahmed Ali Al Sayegh, Chairman and Ronald Barrott, CEO, ALDAR; Mohammed Khalaf Al Mazrouei, Chairman and Riyad Al Mubarak, CEO, Abu Dhabi Media Co.; and Hunt Lowry, who brought the two parties together and will serve as the CEO of the yet-to-be-named film company formed by this venture. For the hotel and theme park project, Warner Bros. Entertainment will draw on select properties from its live-action and animated libraries to provide themes for the overall project as well as individual attractions. The film production fund, a 50-50 venture, calls for the development and production of broad-appeal films, with Warner Bros. retaining worldwide distribution options/rights. Separate from this arrangement, Warner Bros. Pictures International will work with Abu Dhabi Media Company to develop and produce a slate of Arabic-language films for local and pan-Arabic distribution.

Bob Iger can breathe a sigh of relief at today's legal decision. Since the Disney Channel has My Friends Tigger & Pooh, a re-launch of the company's very profitable Winnie The Pooh franchise. Tens of millions of dollars have been poured into the creation of this new CG TV series, all with the hope of making Pooh & pals more appealing to the SpongeBob generation. And the Mouse House has already lined up dozens of licensees to create My Friends Tigger & Pooh merchandise, which is due to hit store shelves this fall. So it's great timing that the Walt Disney Co today won a California appeals court ruling in that 16-year battle with the Slesinger family over hundreds of millions of dollars in Pooh royalties. The judge's panel affirmed a 2004 trial judge's decision to throw out the Slesingers' long running lawsuit against Disney after concluding that the Slesinger side had illegally obtained evidence by hiring a private dick to go Disney dumpster diving.

In case you've forgotten, Stephen Slesinger acquired the rights to the Winnie The Pooh characters in 1930 from author A.A. Milne, and Slesinger's widow licensed the rights to Disney. Slesinger's company filed a 1991 lawsuit claiming Disney hadn't accurately accounted for hundreds of million in unpaid royalties for sales of Pooh merchandise. In turn, Disney has unsuccessfully tried to terminate Slesinger's rights to the Pooh characters by backing a lawsuit filed by the granddaughters of Milne and illustrator Ernest Shepard. The U.S. Supreme Court last year turned away an appeal by Clare Milne that could have ended Disney's obligation to pay Slesinger royalties. Slesinger filed counterclaims in the federal lawsuit, seeking more than $2 billion in damages for trademark and copyright infringement and for underpaid royalties. That counterclaim is still pending. So, no, this isn't over.

1. Bad Timing For Disney's Legal Pooh-Pooh
2. Is Disney Now In Deep Legal Pooh-Pooh?

DreamWorks Animation SKG named Tom Freston to its board of directors today. The former Viacom Inc. president and CEO, who OK'ed the deal to bring DreamWorks into Paramount, was axed by old coot Sumner Redstone a year ago. Nothing like having a common enemy to bring Hollywood types closer together. I should also remind you that, within hours of Freston's firing before his body was even cold, David Geffen called up Redstone and suggested Jeffrey Katzenberg take Tom's place. But Redstone said fuhgeddaboudit.  

Hollywood has no institutional memory. One of the reasons that the vast majority of its execs aren’t in therapy, and should be, is because they don’t want to talk about the past even if it’s prologue. They’re purposefully amnesiac. Otherwise, they’d have to confront the lunatic decisions they make over and over again (since repeating the same behavior and expecting different results is one definition of insanity). Which is why I want to revisit Summer 2007 whose $4.18 billion worth of threequels and blockbusters smashed the May 1st through Labor Day domestic box office gross record. (Not adjusted for inflation or ticket prices, however, which is why Hollywood stats have as many asterisks these days as does baseball.) It’s not that Hollywood denizens started doing everything right. It’s more like they just started doing less things wrong. The product is still terrible. The process is still tainted. The system is still broken. Feed it with praise and its players will never engage in the introspection necessary to ask, “What the hell are we doing even playing this rotten game?” So let me review what Hollywood learned during its summer vacation:

Don’t make threequels with cast and director intact: So the first Spider-Man and Pirates Of The Caribbean and Rush Hour were humongous hits. And the sequels made even more moolah than the originals primarily because original stars Tobey Maguire, Johnny Depp and Chris Tucker were on board as well as repeat helmers Sam Raimi, Gore Verbinski and, yes, even Brett Ratner. The consistency certainly helped make the pics into profitable franchises in the first place. But by the time the threequels rolled around, the budgets became as bloated as the talent's salaries. Chris Tucker shook down New Line for a new pay record on Rush Hour 3, while Brett Ratner brought the studio to its knees when he went wildly overbudget. And both Spidey 3 and Pirates 3 broke the $300 mil cost barrier not counting marketing costs. Then again, directors Raimi and Verbinski respectively were allowed to do pretty much anything they wanted, even making absurdly ass-numbingly long pics, because the studios were so desperate to keep the franchises going. No one wants to get off the gravy train, but if the fourquels are ever going to see the light of day, hire hungrier helmers whom the studios can more easily bludgeon into obedience and/or hotter younger stars to freshen the franchises.

Don’t make expensive comedies: The whole point of greenlighting laughers is supposed to be because they’re cheap. They’re the K-Mart of motion pictures, not the Neiman Marcus (aka Needless Mark-Up). Judd Apatow’s Knocked Up cost only $30 mil. His Superbad was only $20 mil. Constrast that to Evan Almighty’s $210 mil. If a comedy has to rely on CGI for humor instead of spittakes and pratfalls, don’t make that script.

Don’t go after the religious market: There’s no surer guarantee of box office disaster than to make a movie aimed at appealing to The Passion Of The Christ audience. Look, that pic evolved from Mel Gibson’s deeply felt religious beliefs – not from a pitch meeting. Universal moguls dragged out every trick in the Christian playbook to Hail Mary make and market Evan Almighty's tired Noah’s Ark retelling. But the Passion crowd wants stories based on the New Testament. Heathen Hollywood didn’t comprehend that.

Don’t forget that the toys are more important than the toons: Granted, summer kiddie matinees are one of Hollywood’s most profitable traditions. But Sony still lost $50 mil on its underperforming Surf’s Up animated pic this summer. Then again, Pixar films have lost their magic and each keeps earning less than the previous one. At least last summer’s Cars was a merchandising bonanza. Not so with this summer’s Ratatouille because even Disney can't market a kitchen rat. I still don’t understand why Remy wasn’t transformed into Lucy Lapin or Gary Grenouille.

Don’t expect niche audience pics to gross over $200 mil: One of the reasons so many tentpoles did so well this summer is that they appealed simultaneously to several generations of moviegoers. Of course, wide demos went to see Spidey 3 and Pirates 3 and Shrek The Third. But also Transformers whose toys and toons were first introduced back in 1984. So not only did today’s tykes, tweens and teens want to see the bots battle, but so did guys in their 20s and 30s and 40s for whom nostalgia was the big draw.

Don’t bank on stale mythologies: Just as 300 breathed new life into tiresome toga tales, so did Pirates of the Caribbean provide a fresh take on what long hair, eye makeup and nice jewelry can do for a guy at sea. This summer’s handful of original pics helped reinvent the anti-hero, whether robots or Seth Rogan or EPA head Russ Cargill. Of course, I keep waiting in vain for comic book films to flop, but then I don’t do geek.

Don’t think the public wants torture porn: Gore icon Eli Roth is blaming piracy and critics for his Hostel Part II’s lousy box office, warning that the R-rated horror film is in serious jeopardy. But he got it all wrong even before the summer started when he wished in interviews that "hopefully we'll get to a point where there are absolutely no restrictions on any kind of violence in movies”. Horror flicks are alive and well as long as they don’t venture into torture porn hell. Problem is, Hollywood filmmakers are such an inbred bunch that they make films more for each other than for the audience so they always want to push the boundaries set by their rivals. In the case of torture porn, don’t. It’s icky.

Don’t believe in summer counterprogramming: The chances were nil that an adult-oriented downer movie like A Mighty Heart could do well, especially when sexy star Angelina Jolie dresses down and dons a horrible wig, if the alternatives at the megaplex are super robots, super heroes and super sperm. Talk about idiocy. Release those small, important, politically-themed Oscar hopeful films in the fall.

Don’t make chick flicks that even chicks won’t go to see: When I saw the ads for Evening and Georgia Rule and No Reservations and Lucky You, I gagged. Hey, I love a good romance,. But don’t stretch credulity and cast a real-life glamour gal like Catherine Zeta-Jones as a working single mother with boyfriend problems.

Don’t make movies starring Lindsay Lohan: This summer provided proof her act has worn thin. Moviegoers gave an "F" to Lindsay Lohan's horror flick I Know Who Killed Me. And 70-year-old Jane Fonda beat the 20-year-old head-to-head at the box office while starring in the same movie when exit polls showed 53% of the audience for Georgia Rule went to see Jane Fonda (even though she was channeling her father Henry), and only 34% went to see Lindsay Lohan (whose price quote sank by half after this summer).

Don’t make commercial movies with Nicole Kidman: When John Cusack can open a horror film (1408), and Nicole can’t (The Invasion), this actress has officially become box office poison. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: Nicole should be paying film companies to hire her, not the other way around. I don’t care if she can act: she’s the female equivalent of Sean Penn. Let her finance her own films from now on.

Don’t think you can skate with a lousy trailer: Ads will always be the bedrock of a movie’s marketing campaign, and they’ve never been more important because of all the competition and clutter. Rush Hour 3 and I Now Pronounce You Chuck And Larry would have been stillborn had it not been for summer trailers funnier than the pics themselves. Stardust and Balls of Fury had terrible trailers and were flops at the box office.

Don’t forget that Judd Apatow is officially now a mogul: More bowing and scraping to him is therefore called for. And a bigger bonus than the $1 mil Universal forked over. I hear Amy Pascal is serious about having Sony buy him his own country.

Don’t expect the international box office to save Hollywood summers forever: Yeah, French and Russian TV sucks worse than NBC. But one of these days, and probably sooner rather than later, entertainment choices in Bolivia and Bahrain will become as myriad as those in the U.S., and foreigners will find better ways to amuse themselves than sitting through American crap like Daddy Day Camp.

MONDAY AM UPDATE: Here's the official Hollywood announcement today. Note how there's no mention of the money Paramount (I'm told $50 million) and DreamWorks Animation (I'm told $100 million) is receiving for "promotional consideration" from the HD DVD side to continue with what is widely recognized as the losing high-def format. Also note that Fox and MGM right afterwards announced today they were releasing even more Blu-ray titles. Also note that Steven Spielberg is still fence-sitting (although this fall Sony will release in Blu-ray its catalogue title Close Encounters Of The Third Kind, the first of Spielberg's pictures to do so in either format). Sources are telling me these moves are "really out of desperation" by HD DVD and "a cash grab" by the studios. Hollywood was lopsided in favor of Blu-ray: until now, 7 of the 8 major movie studios (Disney, Fox, Warner, Paramount, Sony, Lionsgate and MGM) supported Blu-ray, and 5 of them (Disney, Fox, Sony, Lionsgate and MGM) release their movies exclusively in the Blu-ray format. Only Universal was exclusively HD-DVD. The $100 mil is a huge $$$ infusion for the Shrek-dependent public company DreamWorks Animation -- especially curious because, earlier this year, Jeff Katzenberg told a Bank of America conference that he expected "neither" high-def DVD format to win the war "because they're not going to become the next platform." I have more analysis below:

"Paramount Pictures, a unit of Viacom Inc. and DreamWorks Animation SKG each announced today that they will exclusively support the next-generation HD DVD format on a worldwide basis. The exclusive HD DVD commitment will include all movies distributed by Paramount Pictures, DreamWorks Pictures, Paramount Vantage, Nickelodeon Movies and MTV Films, as well as movies from DreamWorks Animation, which are distributed exclusively by Paramount Home Entertainment. The companies each said that the decision to distribute exclusively in the HD DVD format resulted from an extensive evaluation of current market offerings, which confirmed the clear benefits of HD DVD, particularly its market-ready technology and lower manufacturing costs. Paramount Home Entertainment will launch its exclusive HD DVD program with the release of the blockbuster comedy hit Blades of Glory on August 28th and follow with two of the biggest grossing movies of the year Transformers and Shrek the Third. These three titles alone represent more than $1.5 billion in box office ticket sales worldwide.

'The combination of Paramount and DreamWorks Animation brings a critical mass of current box office hits to consumers with a line-up of live action and animated films that are perfect for HD DVD,' stated Brad Grey, Chairman and CEO of Paramount Pictures, which is currently the leading studio in domestic box office. 'Part of our vision is to aggressively extend our movies beyond the theater, and deliver the quality and features that appeal to our audience. I believe HD DVD is not only the affordable high quality choice for consumers, but also the smart choice for Paramount.'

'We decided to release Shrek the Third and other DreamWorks Animation titles exclusively on HD DVD because we believe it is the best format to bring high quality home entertainment to a key segment of our audience – families,' stated DreamWorks Animation CEO, Jeffrey Katzenberg. 'We believe the combination of this year’s low- priced HD DVD players and the commitment to release a significant number of hit titles in the fall makes HD DVD the best way to view movies at home.'

Paramount Home Entertainment will issue new releases day and date as well as catalog titles exclusively on HD DVD.  Today’s announcement does not include films directed by Steven Spielberg as his films are not exclusive to either format."

SUNDAY PM: I've learned there will be two new developments announced later this week today in the ongoing Blu-ray vs HD-DVD format war: separate HD-DVD deals with Paramount and DreamWorks Animation that involve major millions of dollars. I've got a confidential report from Pali Research managing director Richard S. Greenfield, a media analyst for entertainment and cable, that discussed the deals (see below), spinning them as "the format war is now set to intensify". But sources have given me updated details which show the HD-DVD side is paying through the nose -- I'm told $50 million to Paramount, and $100 million to DreamWorks Animation -- to try to show the strength of what we all know is a dying format. After all, the consumer is already making a decision between formats: even though Toshiba-backed and Microsoft-backed HD-DVD players are far cheaper right now, Sony-backed Blu-ray prices are rapidly coming down. After all, the consumer is already making a decision between formats: even though Toshiba-backed and Microsoft-backed HD-DVD players are far cheaper right now, Sony-backed Blu-ray prices are rapidly coming down. And Blu-ray high-def movie discs outsold films on rival HD-DVD 2-to-1 in the U.S. in the first half of 2007, Home Media Research said last week. Meanwhile, Blockbuster plans to line its shelves with Blu-ray DVDs which are "significantly outpacing" HD-DVD rentals. Here's the Pali Research memo:

"Based on conversations with multiple sources, we believe that Paramount is set to make the vast majority of its catalog available exclusively in the HD-DVD format (unclear whether that includes titles from its sister studio DreamWorks).

While Paramount (owned by Viacom) has some on-going commitments to release new release titles in Blu-ray, it is unclear how long that commitment lasts and how comprehensive the agreement is.

Up until now, Paramount and DreamWorks (live action) were releasing in both Blu-ray and HD-DVD formats. The reason for shifting catalog exclusivity to HD-DVD would appear to be substantial upfront dollars. We expect these dollars could have a meaningfully positive impact on Viacom's film profitability in 2H '07 and full-year 2008.

Separately, it appears that DreamWorks Animation is set to announced that 3-5 key titles (some catalog, some new releases, but details are still fuzzy) over the next several years will be made available exclusively in HD-DVD.

While we are somewhat surprised to see DWA favor a format given its smaller number of releases in a year similar to Paramount, we suspect the driving force of the decision was upfront payments to increase their support of HD-DVD. Given DWA's size, the financial impact on EPS in 2008-2010 could be a positive catalyst for the stock (we are still assuming that Shrek The Third is coming out in both formats in November 2007).

Prior to these revelations, we believe HD-DVD was essentially "dying a slow death," as Universal was the only studio exclusive to HD-DVD (and its box office was not strong enough this year to make a difference), far outweighed by the Blu-ray only studios (Sony, Fox, Disney, MGM, and Lionsgate.) Even though Sony's PS3 has been disappointing from a sales standpoint, Blu-ray DVD sales had begun to notably accelerate based on the content being made available. However, the Paramount/DWA moves alter the landscape meaningfully, as Paramount (Including DW/DWA titles) is the leading theatrical distributor year-to-date (enabling its catalog DVDs to "ride the coattails" of the success of successful theatrical films being released on DVD for the first time.)"

Jim Brooks is saying that The Simpsons Movie screenplay went through 166 drafts. Is that a new record for Hollywood? Or is that a new apocalypse?

SUNDAY AM: Universal told me that #1 The Bourne Ultimatum rocked the North American box office by opening to $24.5 million Friday and $25.4 million Saturday for a $70.1 mil weekend from 3,660 theaters. (Rival studios pegged the total at $69 mil.) That's 42% market share in theaters crowded with summer blockbusters for the near perfectly reviewed pic and a bigger domestic debut than any Bond pic. Though Matt Damon has transformed himself from Pretty Boy to Danger Guy, 57% of moviegoers said he was the main reason for seeing The Bourne Ultimatum, skewing female, while 68% said it was the action, especially among younger males. Other Saturday night exit polling showed the movie attracted an audience 52% male and 48% female, made significant inroads with minorities (13% African Americans, 12% Hispanics, 7% Asians), and skewed age 30 and older (57% vs 43% under 30). The vast majority of the audience (94+%) had seen prior Bourne movies and 60% said that was the main reason for seeing the threequel. It did more than twice the June 2002 original The Bourne Identity (which opened to $27 mil) and way more than the July 2004 sequel The Bourne Supremacy (which debuted to $53 mil). Ratings of the movie broke down to 80% "Excellent/Very Good", 40% "Excellent", and 55% "Definitely Recommend". Another strong sign was this PG-13 pic's per screen average Saturday, a healthy $6,950. The only bad news is that I hear script tweaks and reshoots made the price of this Bourne creep upwards to $110 mil. But its domestic and international ticket receipts should hand Universal a hefty profit, nonetheless.

Bourne doesn't start to roll out until next weekend internationally where The Simpsons Movie continues to dominate the rest of the world. It is still No. 1 in most territories with some of the Industry's best 2nd weekend ever #s (except France and Spain where Disney / Pixar's Ratatouille opened this weekend) and boasts 40% market share. Homer, Marge and the rest of the family made $47.3 mil from 75 overseas markets this weekend for a $187 international total. In North America, 20th Century Fox told me Simpsons raked in another $25.6 mil weekend (-65% from last) from 3,926 theaters for a new gross of $128.5 million in just one week's time. Though a four-quadrant hit, the toon is drawing heavily on kids since it went up 19% from Friday ($8.1 mil) to Saturday ($9.6 mil) when matinees rule.

No. 3 was the live action Underdog, which Disney told me opened to $4.1 mil Friday and $4.3 mil Saturday in 3,013 dates for a $12 mil weekend. Universal's other movie in the Top 10, #4 I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry, the Adam Sandler-Kevin James laugher, had a weekend take of $10.5 mil from 3,290 runs to pull off a 17-day cume of $91.6 mil. No. 5 went to Warner's Harry Potter And The Order Of The Phoenix whose hot new cume is now $260.9 mil after squeezing out another $9.4 mil weekend starting its 4th week in release. In 6th place is New Line's Hairspray, starring John Travolta in drag, which slowed to a $9.1 mil weekend from 3,115 theaters for a new cume of $78.9 mil. Warner's holdover chick flick with Catherine Zeta-Jones, No Reservations, clung to #7 after cooking up only $6.4 mil weekend (-45% from last) from 2,425 plays for a weak new cume of $19.7 mil. 

No. 8 went to the Paramount and DreamWorks pic Transformers, which has finally run out of steam after five incredible weeks at the box office. The battling bots added another $5.9 mil weekend from 2,419 dates for a huge new cume of $296.3 mil, the studio said. It should break the near-impossible $300 mil domestic barrier by next weekend. In 9th place, Paramount's poorly reviewed comedy Hot Rod, starring Saturday Night Live's Andy Samberg as an accident-prone stuntman, barely opened. the studio said it made just $5 mil this weekend from 2,607 theaters. Saturday's per screen average was a pathetic $665, lowest of the Top 10, showing Samberg ain't no young Adam Sandler. And, bringing up the rear of the Top 10, Bratz was the Lionsgate flop everyone thought it would be. The tweener pic barely opened with $1.7 mil Friday and Saturday from 1,509 runs for what was a poor $4.5 mil weekend. 

Finally, El Cantante, starring Jennifer Lopez and husband Marc Anthony in the Picturehouse biopic of Puerto Rican salsa sensation Hector Lavoe, debuted at No. 12. Platforming in just 542 theaters, it scored $1 mil Friday and Saturday for a $2.9 mil weekend. The film did so-so with a Saturday per screen average of 1,990, the 4th highest of the weekend. Only Bourne, Simpsons and Miramax's No. 16 film Becoming Jane (playing in 100 venues) did better per screen. 

 

SUNDAY AM: A toon triumph! I'm told 20th Century Fox says its four quadrant hit The Simpsons Movie shred the competition for No. 1 with a $71.8 million North American weekend, or more than double what the studio hoped. After a stunning $30 million on Friday from 3,922 North American theaters, Homer and the family fell 23% Saturday to take in $23.1 million. The studio projects an $18.7 million Sunday (-17%). Overseas, The Simpsons Movie is also No. 1 by a wide margin with an average 55% market share. The toon grossed a phenomenal $96 million in 71 day and date markets, despite debuting in only 8 of the top 15 markets: UK, Germany, France, Spain, Belgium, Sweden, Australia and Argentina. Opening day records included: biggest industry opening day ever in Australia, Argentina, Columbia and Chile; and biggest animated opening day ever in Australia, Belgium, Finland, Germany, New Zealand, Peru, Sweden, Uruguay, Venezuela. Sources told me that CinemaScore had U.S. audiences giving big screen Simpsons an "A-", with families particularly loving it. There had been early concern inside the studio with tracking showing that the "parents taking their kids" score was lower than execs wanted. But, aided by its brief 87 minute running time, The Simpsons Movie smashed record books for toons. According to Fox, it opened bigger than any Pixar film and bigger than any non-sequel animated film ever. It's also the biggest opening for a non-CGI animated film including sequels (the previous record holder was Disney's The Lion King).

The Simpsons Movie's $30 million Friday was a shock to the Industry because it was more than Transformers made on its opening day and best single day this summer, and good enough for The Simpsons to slot into the Hollywood's Top 17 opening days of all time (right behind the $30.1 mil of Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones). But the well reviewed (a score of 88% positive critiques on Rotten Tomatoes) and wide release (playing in 3,922 North American theaters) pic managed an outstanding per screen average of 7,649 Friday and ended the weekend with a high $18,320 3-day per screen average. Some naysayers didn't believe the movie could pack a punch, given that The Simpsons is all over television on network and in syndication. Hah! The analysts I'm talking to attribute the film's success to Fox's omnipresent marketing (including Homer opening this week's Tonight Show and earlier American Idol as well as that inspired 7-Eleven cross-promotion). Pic insiders have nothing but praise for the year-long marketing and distribution campaign which Fox orchestrated throughout the News Corp empire. "The old saw of synergy within media companies, that was never full realized before, paid off here," a source told me. And remember: Fox says the pic cost only $75 million (without marketing) because so much animation work was done in South Korea.

The No. 2 movie, Universal's buddy comedy with Adam Sandler and Kevin James I Now Pronounce You Chuck And Larry stayed strong (dropping only -44%) and made $19 million this weekend from 3,501 venues. Its new cume is a great $71.6 mil because there haven't been enough laffers at the box office this summer. Warner's Harry Potter And The Order Of The Phoenix scored a big kiddie matinee Saturday and jumped up to No. 3 its 3rd weekend out raking in $17.6 mil from 4,005 runs. Its hot new cume is now a whopping $242.3 mil. New Line's Hairspray slowed for its 2nd weekend (-44%) to No. 4 and took in $15.4 mil from 3,121 runs for a new cume of $59.4 mil. Jumping into 5th place was the DreamWorks and Paramount coproduction Transformers which added another $11.5 mil from 3,349 dates its 4th weekend in release for a blistering new cume of $284.6 mil. Warner's No Reservations, starring Catherine Zeta-Jones, opened in the 6th spot (with a CinemScore of "B+", sources say) with $12 mil this weekend from 2,425 runs.

After five weekends, Ratatouille still managed to rake in $7.4 mil from 2,934 theaters for the 7th spot and a healthy new cume of $179.8 mil. Fox's Live Free Or Die Hard hangs in for a 5th weekend in 8th place, taking in $5.3 mil from 2,271 runs for a new cume of $125.1 mil. Insiders told me that CinemaScore's polling of moviegoers resulted in an "F" to Lindsay Lohan's horror flick I Know Who Killed Me, which opened in 9th place to only $3.4 mil from 1,320 venues. No question she's killing her career with her off-screen behavior. Rounding out the Top 10, horribly reviewed Who's Your Caddy? from The Weinstein Co debuted with $2.9 mil from 1,019 venues.

Here's the Top 10 chart:

1. 1. Simpsons Movie $30M Fri, $23.1M Sat, and est $18.7M Sun. (cume $71.8M)
2. 2. Chuck And Larry $6.2M Fri, $7.2M Sat, and est $5.8M Sun. ($71.6M)
3. 3. Harry Potter Phoenix $5M Fri, $7M Sat, and est $5.6M Sun. ($242.3M)
4. 4. Hairspray $5.2M Fri, $6M Sat, and est $4.5M Sun. ($59.5M)
5. 5. Transformers $3.2M Fri, $4.6M Sat, and est $3.6M Sun. ($284.5M)
6. 6. No Reservations $4M Fri, $4.5M, and est $3.5M Sun ($12M)
7. 7. Ratatouille $2.2M Fri, $2.9M Sat, and est $2.2M Sun. ($179.8M)
8. 8. Live Free Or Die Hard $1.5M Fri, $2.2M Sat, and est $1.5M Sun. ($125.1M)
9. 9. I Know Who Killed Me $1.3M Fri, $1.1M Sat, and est $905K Sun. ($3.4M)
10. 10. Who's Your Caddy?  $950K Fri, $1.1M Sat, and est $850K Sun. ($2.9M)

(more...)

I don't do geek. But that doesn't matter because this weekend most Hollywood studios are pushing ALL their movie and other entertainment product at Comic-Con in San Diego. It's like, let's throw mud against the wall and see what sticks. (Which explains why Owen Wilson's latest comedy Drillbit Taylor to the Get Smart remake are poised for convention traction.) The result is that the true Comic-Con oriented product gets lost in the orgy of all the other stuff being promo-ed. On the other hand, the 120,000+ fans are incredibly grateful since they don't get out much. (Just kidding.) Said one Warner's insider to me, "So cool to see fans respond to content. There's a great energy and makes me proud that I work in this biz. Some days it can feel like I'm just in insurance." Check out my sister paper OC Weekly's Comic-Con blog. In the meantime, here's my studio-by-studio roundup:

SONY
There's a hot ticket screening of Superbad tonight followed by a Q&A with Judd Apatow, Greg Mottola, Seth Rogen, etc. The trailer for Walk Hard will be shown beforehand. On Saturday, Sony's panel starts with footage of Resident Evil: Extinction, with a special appearance by Milla Jovovich as well as the world premiere of the trailer. Sony is also showing footage of 30 Days Of Night with an appearance by producer Sam Raimi. Sony's home entertainment division is hosting a “Blu-ray Experience” event including director Eli Roth and Ray Harryhausen (his legendary 20 Million Miles To Earth is being released on Blu-ray). Imageworks and Sony Online Entertainment divisions hold a panel discussion and screening of special footage of Spider-Man 3. Also, Sony will preview its hottest upcoming games.

DISNEY
Walt Disney Pictures is presenting The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian and Disney / Pixar’s WALL•E in Hall H on Saturday. The Caspian filmmakers will present never-before-seen footage of the second installment of the epic fantasy-adventure series, with appearances by director Andrew Adamson, producer Mark Johnson, WETA Workshop’s Richard Taylor, creature supervisor Howard Berger, visual effects supervisor Dean Wright, and costume designer Isis Mussenden. For WALL•E , Academy Award-winning director Andrew Stanton (Finding Nemo) and Academy Award-winning sound designer Ben Burtt (Star Wars, ET) present exclusive footage of Disney / Pixar’s next adventure.

WARNER
Some people don't realize that Warner Bros owns DC Comics, the ground zero of Comic-Con. So tons of panels and activities around the DC Comics' books and projects are planned. On the movie side, the studio held its theatrical preview featuring The Invasion, One Missed Call, 10,000 BC, Whiteout, Speed Racer, Get Smart, Trick R Treat and Watchman.  Steve Carell and The Rock from Get Smart were huge hits there. Clips played great. (But the studio made the decision early on not to use Comic-Con to present The Dark Knight or its highly anticipated I Am Legend.) Other promos include TV previews of some of Warner's new and returning shows as well as DVD pushes (300 includes a huge screening at Petco Park), animation series and games previews.

PARAMOUNT
Paramount's slate totally killed at Comic-Con. The studio pulled out all the stops promoting its J.J. Abrams' reimagined Star Trek with surprise star Leonard Nimoy as one of two Mr. Spocks (the other is Zachary Quinto, who plays Sylar on Heroes) appearing to wild surprise, Iron Man, and Indy 4 complete via satellite with Harrison Ford and Steven Spielberg who intro'ed Karen Allen with much fanfare. Altogether, Paramount, DreamWorks and Nickolodeon unveiled exclusive movie footage and major casting announcements. First scenes of Iron Man was shown by director John Favreau as was the world premiere trailers for Beowulf and Drillbit Taylor. The afternoon panel included appearances by Hot Rod director Akiva Schaffer and actors Andy Samberg and Jorma Taccone, Neil Gaiman with a clip from the film version of his graphic novel Stardust screened Thursday. A trailer from The Spiderwick Chronicles was followed by a Q&A with the film’s director Mark Waters, Oscar-winning special effects whiz Phil Tippett and authors of the books. And the first poster art for Tim Burton’s Sweeney Todd starring Johnny Depp was revealed.

MGM
MGM is bringing down talent from Pathology for a panel on Sunday with a sizzle reel and Q-&-A. The film stars Milo Ventimiglia, Alyssa Milano, Michael Weston, Lauren Lee Smith, was written and directed by the writers of Crank, Mark Neveldine and Brian Taylor and directed by Marc Schoelermann. There'll be a lot of promotion around Stargate and its various series and titles.

UNIVERSAL 
The studio is staying low-key. There's just a Q&A panel with the cast and filmmakers of The Incredible Hulk including Edward Norton, Liv Tyler, director Louis Leterrier and producers Avi Arad and Gale Anne Hurd as well as Kevin Feige of Marvel.

20TH CENTURY FOX
There were "aw's" when fans heard that 20th cancelled its big theatrical preview without giving a reason to the assembled masses. But Hollywood had already been told one week before the confab kickoff. Problem was the footage Fox wanted to show for several of its pics just wasn't ready or else too violent. So no studio push for Alien vs. Predator 2, Hitman, Jumper, Babylon A.D., The Dark Is Rising and City of Ember. Also no planned Fox montages for R-rated AVP and Hitman. Instead, 20th's home video division, Fox TV, Fox Atomic and Fox Searchlight are presenting.

The Simpsons Movie is still looking at a great opening this weekend with wide distribution domestically (3,922 theaters) and omnipresent marketing. My box office gurus are predicting at least a $50 million and maybe even a $60 million opening -- even though 20th Century Fox internally projects only high $30s. Once again, the studios keep playing this game of lowered expectations. The story here is that Fox is claiming the toon cost just $75 million to make thanks to so much of the animation work being done in South Korea. That's a bargain! As for Warner's No Reservations (2,425 venues), my box office analysts predict an opening of only $10 mil. This is such a predictable chick flick with one of the worst trailers, not to mention miscast with Catherine Zeta Jones, that it defies explanation. Some media have asked me whether Lindsay Lohan's troubles will help her Sony horror flick I Know Who Killed Me (1,320 runs). Nah, it'll be stillborn at the box office making only $3 mil. And The Weinstein Co's MGM-distributed comedy Who's Your Caddy? should eke out only $2.5 mil.

Next weekend (August 3rd), my box office gurus are starting raise their estimates for The Bourne Ultimatum which is getting rave reviews. The Matt Damon quintessential action pic looks more like "mid-$50s at least" now instead of just $40+ mil. One of the film's producers is trying to sucker-bet me that it'll do $60+ mil. As for Lionsgate's Bratz, it looks like a flop.

Sony's summer sleeper Superbad (August 17th) from the Judd Apatow comedy wheel just came on tracking. "With pretty low awarness but high definite interest from the ones who are aware," I'm told.

New Line's Rush Hour 3 (August 10th) is still huge.

Warner's The Invasion (August 17th) came on "soft in all areas".

As I expected, the Los Angeles Times finally swallowed its pride and today posted a "For The Record" correction fixing several facts in its story about the Chicago Films Critics Association and 20th Century Fox. I'm told there will also be a follow-up story. Previous: Chicago Film Critics Assn Says LA Times Story On 20th Fox Wrong 

Wow, those people at Fox sure know how to market a movie. First, Homer Simpson opened American Idol back in May to tease the pic. Now he introduced The Tonight Show this evening before the film's July 27th release -- and the toon did an NBC-bashing, GE-mugging monologue to boot. In the animated intro, Homer quipped that NBC stands for "Never Been Crappier". Homer also said that "GE makes a lot of other bad things. According to my daughter Lisa, GE fills the air with more dangerous hydrocarbon emissions than Rosie O'Donnell". After a few jokes, the toon was led out by security guards while a Simpsonized Leno watched. Later, the real Jay took over the show and said, "I want to thank Homer Simpson for filling in. We had Lindsay Lohan but turns out she was already booked." Then Rob Schneider came out as Lindsay Lohan, with blond wig and ankle bracelet, and stayed in character as Leno's first guest.