There is hope that the country can once again become an Asian economic tiger under President Arroyo, the daughter of a farmer who himself became president.

Latest Political Situational bearing Safety in the Philippines

On this past Monday I attended a meeting held by a faith-based group on this very subject - what is really going on. My guess - maybe 250 people - and yes, I was the only kano [Americano] there.

It was a very organized, detailed description of the current situation - the players and their family interweaving - and probability assessments of various potential outcomes.

The study and presentation was done by a Filipino Jesuit. For those of you not familiar with this priestly order - Jesuits have been the intelligentsia (really smart folks) of the Roman Church for centuries (as well as its radicals - they've been kicked out of several European, South - Central American countries by governments - and sometimes by the Church itself - on and off throughout history - typically, for challenging the status quo on the side of the 'Have Nots' (which is another discussion).

BOTTOM LINE of the Presentation - It appears that the President *will survive* the current storm - but not likely to serve until the end of her term. Currently it is likely the military will stay on the sidelines.

------------------
Dear Ron,

Thank you for the very informative post. That is the way I see it to, as the group you attended sees it.

An interesting tidbit that I was unaware of - many folks do not like the idea of the President leaving because of the second in charge was an employee (and some suspect still is) of one of large economic oligarchy families.

@True, Ron, and he has a lot of political debts and very little experience. As a news caster reading the news he was outstanding: "Magandang Gabi Bayan!", (Good Evening Countrymen!)boom every night from the TV. He was a charmer, cam in first in the Senate race, a perfect pick to go up again Loren Lagarta for VP, a person with a similar background who is screaming election fraud now and did from day one. There are always and there always be claims of election fraud even of the College of Cardinals counted the votes. The loser is always cheated. We see that in life, don't we.
___________________________________

But all bets are off if something 'crazy' happens - a Martin Luther King or Watts scenario. Then the probability of the military becoming involved increases.

@Always a possibility, Ron. But I feel very unlikely unless the opposition can get people stirred up enough to sway the military. If the military stick with her and the constitution as predicted, it will happen. Filipinos really don't want to fight one another. They do love to argue politics.
___________________________________

There is a reasonable probability that something will change to push governing authority down to lower levels - somewhat along the "Manila is not the Philippines" theme - perhaps not the "Republic of" - but more akin to the USA system - States and a Federal government.

@You opinion, "Good idea," is s good one. As it is most provinces only have Representaives in Manila, (the Philippine's Washington's D. C.,actually Quezon City, Metro Manila) It would be good to have at least one senator from each province. But there will always be corruption in any large organization, certainly a government.

MY OPINION - Probably a good idea. My understanding is there are less then a hundred folks in Manila running the whole place (and skim).There appears to be a growing ground swell that 'enough is enough'.
___________________________________

Reportedly, an outline of the Presentation will be available electronically (probably PDF format). I requested one - and if it comes I'll forward to Don - and he can post it somewhere so that List Members here or abroad can access if further interested.
___________________________________

@Thank you Ron for the file if you can get it. And thank you for a very informative and balanced post. Right now we just don't know. But I don't think much will change. Filipinos are Filipinos, forgiving and tolerant. If Senator Lacson, not designated the contender though under indictment for capital offence himself and the united opposition beat Gloria down too far the Filipino people may start feeling sorry for her. There could be a favorable backlash created for the President. Everybody like to see the underdog come back.