MONDAY AM: George Clooney's Michael Clayton only placed 4th after Sunday.

SUNDAY AM: Everyone knew Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married would do well at the box office this weekend. But certainly not $21.5 million, well enough to double the gross receipts of Triple-A List star George Clooney's adult legal drama Michael Clayton. How abundantly clear that Clooney's domestic popularity as an actor isn't what the media or Hollywood thinks it is. After all, his Warner movie is one of the best reviewed this early fall (90% on Rotten Tomatoes). But except for his ensemble movies -- the franchise Ocean's 11, 12 & 13 or A Perfect Storm or Batman & Robin-- not one George Clooney-starring movie has ever opened big at the domestic box office despite plenty of hype. But he keeps getting hired as the top salaried star of pics especially at Warner because he's considered a big name. Such is the decision making of Hollywood.

Producer-director-writer-actor Perry's appeal to African American audiences went from solid to spectacular as the Lionsgate adaptation of his stage play was the No. 1 U.S. movie with the best per screen average ($4,550 Saturday) in its 2,011 theaters. Perry is now one of Hollywood's most reliable box office brands, again able to tap into a deep reservoir of comedic mayhem and melodrama that his moviegoers love seeing. This weekend, he was critic-proof, with reviewers generally rejecting his PG-13 film.

Disney's family fare, The Game Plan started the weekend in 4th place. But The Rock in his 3rd weekend in release overheated Saturday matinees and overtook both Clooney and Phoenix and Wahlberg. The Game Plan's weekend gross was $11.5 million from 3,128 venues, bringing its cume to $59.4 million.

My box office analysts expected Warner's R-rated Michael Clayton, which expanded into 2,511 theaters this weekend, to be the No. 1 film. Instead, this full-frills studio movie with its expensive ad campaign was only #3 (and even #4, according to some studio estimates) after making $11 million from 2,511 runs. 

Neck and neck with it was the R-rated We Own The Night, which Sony at Cannes paid a bargain $11 million for the domestic rights from Mark Cuban's 2929 Productions. This thriller starring Joaquin Phoenix and Mark Wahlberg finished #4 with $11 mil from 2,362 plays. Reviews of the pic were mixed, and awareness so-so despite a sharp ad campaign. I'm told 51% of the audience was male, and 58% were under 30.

After a disappointing debut last weekend, DreamWorks / Paramount's The Heartbreak Kid managed 5th place. The Ben Stiller starrer eked out $7.4 million this weekend from 3,233 dates, down 47%. Its new cume is $26 mill.

In only 6th place, Universal's PG-13 Elizabeth: The Golden Age opened amid media attention and Oscar buzz since Cate Blanchett is one of Hollywood's most celebrated actresses now. The costume drama's opening box office of $6.1 million from 2,001 dates was lower than the studio would have liked but similar to Pride And Prejudice. It attracted an older audience with 2/3 over age 35.

As for the rest of the Top 10, Universal's war thriller The Kingdom with Jamie Foxx placed 7th, entering its 3rd weekend in release taking in $4.5 million from 2,836 theaters for a new cume of $39.9 mil. At No. 8 was Sony / Revolution's Across The Universe, directed by Julie Taymor and featuring The Beatles hit songs (since Sony controls that music catalogue). Thanks to teenage girls seeing the romantic pic, it started its 5th week in release squeezing out another $4 million from just 954 venues for a new cume of $12.9 mil. Resident Evil 3 from Sony / Screen Gems snagged the 9th spot starting its 4th week in release. With a new cume of $48 mil, the sci-fi pic scraped together $2.6 million from 2,249 dates. Fox/Walden's underperforming kiddie fantasy holdover The Seeker climbed up to No. 10 after Saturday matinees to take in $2.1 million from 3,173 theaters for a new cume of only $7.1 million.

Among newscomers, Yari Film Group's The Final Season made $665K from 1,011 runs, Sony Picture Classics' Sleuth took in $50K from 9 dates, and MGM's Lars And The Real Girl ended the weekend with $85K in 7 theaters in 7 venues.

Competition is finally heating up at the megaplex again after the September/October movie box office is way down compared to last year's. (I blame all the sports on TV right now.) This weekend, five movies -- newcomers, holdovers, some going wide -- will compete for gross receipts. Let's look first at what's opening. Sony at the Cannes Film Festival paid $11 million for the domestic rights to We Own The Night (from Mark Cuban's 2929 Productions) and is hoping for at least a $12 million debut this weekend. I hear the tracking for the Joaquin Phoenix and Mark Wahlberg starrer in 2,362 theaters still isn't good, despite a crackling though muted ad campaign and the tempting pairing of those two terrific actors. But reviews of the pic (62% among the Cream Of The Crop critics on Rotten Tomatoes) are only mixed. So it'll probably end up No. 3. Instead, awareness is very high for Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married from Lionsgate opening in 2,011 dates. His films do reliably well so my box office gurus expect this pic to be No. 2. Universal's Elizabeth: The Golden Age is getting a lot of media attention and Oscar buzz but only opening in 1,951 venues. If those are in urban areas and college towns, then its per screen average should be very high. If not...

My analysts forsee Warner's very adult legal drama Michael Clayton, which expands into 2,511 theaters this weekend, as the No. 1 film. If not, then George Clooney's popularity as an actor isn't what the media or Hollywood thinks it is. After all, the movie is one of the best reviewed this early fall: 90% on Rotten Tomatoes. But consider -- except for his ensemble franchise Ocean's 11, 12 & 13 or the similarly ensemble A Perfect Storm, I can't name one George Clooney movie that opened big at the box office. (But you don't hear Warner execs vowing to stop making him the star of their pics...)

Disney's family fare The Game Plan should continue strong thanks to Saturday matinees. And DreamWorks / Paramount's The Heartbreak Kid remake will continue to fall apart.

As for the future, tracking is on overload with so many pics coming up. Looking big: Imagine / Universal's American Gangster (Nov 2nd), Jerry Seinfeld's Bee Movie (Nov 2nd) for DreamWorks / Paramount, and Lionsgate's Saw IV (Oct 26th). 

SUNDAY AM: The Game Plan scored another touchdown for Disney this weekend as The Heartbreak Kid opened to only $14 million from 3,299 theaters. I hear the exit polls were "awful" and the pic received only "C's"' from Cinemascore. No wonder Ben Stiller's R-rated comedy mustered only $4.7 million Friday and $5.5 million Saturday. That's way less than the $20 mil hoped for by Paramount / DreamWorks. "If it's less than $17 million, it's a disappointment," an insider told me before the weekend. Not helping box office, the remake also received lousy reviews (only 34% positive according to Rotten Tomatoes). But what elevated the 1972 original was the intriguing Jewish guy-shiksa goddess subtext, and now it's just slapstick crapola from the Farrelly brothers who didn't strike a There's Something About Mary chord with audiences. Never a good sign when people are way more excited about seeing DreamWorks' Sweeney Todd trailer that's paired with the film. How humiliating for the pic to fall to No. 2 by Sunday since Disney's family fare The Game Plan picked up momentum at the Saturday kiddie matinees for a $16.3 mil weekend. It made $4.4 million Friday and $7.3 million Saturday from 3,205 dates and fell only 29.1% its second weekend out for a new cume of $42.8 mil. Just for the record, The Game Plan was one of only six films this year to get a pure "A" rating from Cinemascore. It also scored well on the college circuit since The Rock is a fave.

In 3rd place, Universal's war thriller The Kingdom fell the normal 45% its second weekend in release, earning $9.3 mil from 2,802 runs. Its new cume is only $31.3 after a disappointing opening of $17.1 mil since the studio had been hoping for at least $20 mil. But now Uni execs acknowledge that it may be too difficult selling war-themed movies this season. (Warner Indie's In The Valley Of Elah is really struggling to find an audience.) One problem was that The Kingdom scored best with older males -- exit polling showed 64% of moviegoers were over 30 -- and not enough young people wanted to see the film. Some think that Jamie Foxx may still not be a serious enough actor to carry this kind of film, Oscar notwithstanding. "He's more Cuba Gooding Jr than Denzel Washington," one insider told me.

Screen Gems / Sony's Resident Evil 3 came in 4th place, taking in $4.3 mil from 2,848 plays for a new cume starting its 3rd week in release of $43.4 mil.

Two newcomers broke into the Top 10. TriStar / Sony's "reggaeton" music and dancing pic Feel The Noise from producer Jennifer Lopez made $3.4 mil Friday from only 1,015 theaters. I'm not at all sure why this movie opened in such a limited release except for the lousy reviews; I think it could have gone wide this weekend because of its very catchy ad campaign. And Fox Walden's The Seeker: The Dark Is Rising is a flop, earning a disastrous $3.7 mil from 3,141 venues. So much for Walden's attempt at a fantasy franchise based on a five-book series Susan Cooper started in the 1960s. (This is the second volume. Walden bought the books and produced the pic, Fox co-financed and distributed it.) Guess Fox has four more books of the beloved series left to get it right.

Meanwhile, George Clooney's legal thriller Michael Clayton opened in limited release. Playing in 15 theaters, it earned $700K for the weekend, with the best per screen average Saturday of $19,136.

Overall, box office was down 26% compared to last year's. Here's the Top 10 chart:

1. 1. The Game Plan $4.4M Fri, $7.3M Sat, and est $4.6M Sun. (cume $42.8M)
2. 2. Heartbreak Kid $4.7M Fri, $5.5M Sat, and est $3.4M Sun. ($14M)
3. 3. The Kingdom $2.9M Fri, $3.9M Sat, and est $2.5M Sun. ($31.3M)
4. 4. Resident Evil 3 $1.2M Fri, $1.8M Sat, and est $1.2M Sun. ($43.4M)
5. 5. The Seeker $1.1M Fri, $1.5M Sat, and est $1M Sun. ($3.7M)
6. 6. Good Luck Chuck $1.1M Fri, $1.4 Sat and est $950K Sun. ($29M)
7. 7. Feel The Noise $1.1M Fri, $1.3M Sat and est $925K Sun. ($3.4M)
8. 8. 3:10 To Yuma $900K Fri, $1.3M Sat, and est $815K Sun. ($48.6M)
9. 9. The Brave One $650K Fri, $1M Sat, and est $550K Sun. ($34.2M)
10. 10. Mr. Woodcock $650K Fri, $925K Sat, and est $475K Sun. ($22.3M)

Welcome to Fall 2007's first official weekend prediction. Lionsgate's 3:10 to Yuma has that incredibly interesting pairing of Russell Crowe and Christian Bale with director James Mangold, but it's causing consternation among my box office gurus. They agree it should be the No. 1 pic, but pessimists are predicting only a $10 mil debut from 2,652 theaters. Even optimists note that, while the tracking to them suggests a generous $12.5 mil opening (and even that is hardly OK for a $50 mil film with over $30 mil in P & A), Yuma's "awareness" number is "disproportionately small. Not a good sign." My analysts predict that MGM / The Weinstein Co's Labor Day record setting holdover, Halloween, should drop a gigantic -70% and muster $8 mil or so from 3,475 runs. Sony's Superbad in 3,069 dates should come in around $7 mil or $8 mill. As for New Line's ridiculous Shoot 'Em Up playing in 2,108 venues, I'm told to expect only $6 mil to $7 mil.

Sony's Superbad should continue as No. 1 this weekend. Down 40% or less would be a big show of strength for this low-cost coming-of-age comedy from producer Judd Apatow (who's now officially a mogul in my opinion). My box office gurus expect a Superbad weekend close to $20 mil from its 2,948 theaters. Next among newcomers comes Lionsgate's War with Jet Li and Jason Stratham which should debut "in the high teens" from 2,277 venues. And No. 3 among freshmen probably goes to The Nanny Diaries starring Scarlett Johansson from The Weinstein Co/MGM in the low teens with 2,629 runs. Really, how irritating that these people took a hot book and made a sitcom instead of a movie (horrible reviews on RottenTomatoes). No one knows quite where Mr. Bean's Holiday (1,713 dates) will end up since his movies are always hard to predict. Instead of the films, the really BIG news this weekend will be the moment that Summer 2007 crosses into the record books. Media By Numbers said yesterday's total is $3.881 billion, close to the precedent-setting $3.95 billion of 2004.

SUNDAY AM: Sony's Superbad did supergood at the domestic box office this weekend as the studio told me Judd Apatow's low-cost coming of age comedy opened with a surprisingly big $31.2 million from 2,948 theaters. "It trounced all expectations," a studio source explained to me. This is the only time a summer movie released after August 15th has gone over $30M. "We started the summer in a record way and are finishing it that way," a Sony exec told me. The breakdown of moviegoers seeing Superbad was 52% male and 48% female, with 60% of the debut weekend audience between the ages of 18-30. "Word of mouth carried this film nicely," an exec said. After weeks when the pic's awareness level was tracking lower than had been hoped, overwhelmingly great reviews from even prestige media like The New York Times made the difference for $12.3 mil Friday and $10.4 mil Saturday and a projected $8.4 mil Sunday. Once again, the comedy wheel from the fertile mind of mogul-in-the-making Apatow and his buddies produced another sweet but raunchy laugher that both young and older moviegoers wanted to see after months of bloated blockbusters. (And my savvy box office gurus predicted back on May 1st that this pic would be the late-summer sleeper.) Instead of hundreds of millions of dollars, Superbad cost only $20M. "So the budget-to-gross ratio on this one could be really something special when we get to the end of the run," a Sony source told me.

Summer to date's domestic box office revenues of $3.82 billion (Media By Numbers) this year already have passed 2006. So the all-time record for May 1st through Labor Day is certain to go down since 2004 was the precedent setter with $3.95 billion. This was the 6th "up" weekend in a row in overall summer box office. But you wouldn't have known it from 5th place newcomer The Invasion from Warner Bros, which tanked even worse than anyone thought. Four directors later, this bomb opened to only $2 million Friday and $2.2 million Saturday from 2,776 runs for only a $5.7 million weekend. (Nicole Kidman and Daniel Craig woke up with fleas from this dog.) And another debut, The Weinstein Co's The Last Legion, finished out of the Top 10 (in 12th)altogether with only $2.6 mil this weekend from 2,002 venues despite those ads making the movie look like a clone of the hit pic 300. (Talk about problems: the horribly reviewed Legion was supposed to be released back in October 2006, then moved down, and moved down again, to April. Finally, an agreement was reached whereby TWC had to distribute The Last Legion in at least 1,500 theaters by August 24th. The P&A money was kept to only a bare minimum, and the word "dumped" has even been used.)

The rest of the Top 10 movies finished in predictable order. No. 2 went to New Line's holdover Rush Hour 3 which took in $6.3 mil Friday and $8.7 mil Saturday from 3,778 dates -- down 56% -- for a new cume of $88.1 mil. Holding up starting three weeks in release, Universal's The Bourne Ultimatum earned $5.7 mil Friday and $8.1 mil Saturday in 3,701 dates for a big new cume of $163.8 mil. Meanwhile, the Matt Damon threequel rolled into the UK this weekend as No. 1 with twice as big an opening day as the franchise's previous two.

Still hanging in at #4 on its fourth Friday, 20th Century Fox's The Simpsons Movie took in $6.6 mil from 3,162 plays for a new cume of $165 mil. Paramount's Stardust continued not to shine, placing 6th with just $5.2 mil from 2,565 theaters for a dismal new cume of $19 mil. (Ouch!) No. 7 went to New Line's Hairspray which took in $4.4 mil from 2,389 venues for a new cume of $100.7 mil. Disney's Underdog at #8 continues to underwhelm with a new cume of just $31.7 mil after a $3.6 mil from 2,551 theaters. No. 9 was Warner's Harry Potter And The Order Of The Phoenix with a giant new cume of $278.8 mil following this weekend's $3.7 mil from 1,955 runs. And, rounding out the Top 10, Universal's I Now Pronounce You Chuck And Larry finished the weekend with $3.5 mil from 2,258 venues for a new cume of $110.3 mil.

It's early still, but I'm told that today's release of mogul-in-the-making producer Judd Apatow's Superbad is already doing better than expected at the domestic box office. After weeks when the pic's awareness level was tracking lower than had been hoped, overwhelmingly great reviews from even prestige media like The New York Times are making the difference. So much so that sources tell me Sony is now projecting a supergood $25 million opening for the low-cost coming of age comedy playing in 2,948 theaters. As of last night, my box office gurus predicted a three-way race for No. 1 this weekend. Expectations were for the trio of films to all finish at $20 mil: New Line's Rush Hour 3 to drop 60%, Universal's The Bourne Ultimatum to go down 40%, and newcomer Superbad to open well. But now the little laugher is pulling ahead. No one's expecting much from Warner's The Invasion which, four directors later, hits 2,776 venues.

Meanwhile, The Weinstein Co's The Last Legion making 2,002 runs should tank despite those ads making the movie look like a clone of the hit pic 300. Oy, talk about problems: Legion was supposed to be released back in October 2006, then moved down, and moved down again, to April. Finally, an agreement was reached whereby TWC had to distribute The Last Legion in at least 1,500 theaters by August 24th. (I've heard differing accounts of whether, if that deadline wasn't met, a $5 mil penalty kicked in or not.) Anyway, insiders have complained to me that the P&A money was kept to only a bare minimum. (The word "dumped" was even used in screaming matches, I'm told.) I understand Dino and Martha De Laurentiis are not exactly happy campers since this film has consumed five years of their lives and now it's barely registering with the moviegoing public in awareness.

There are two things you may not know about Stardust, opening this weekend. 1) Good thing Brad Grey is vacationing in Europe with his family. Because he'll miss the pic's disastrous domestic opening this weekend. Even budgeted without marketing costs at $70 million (which sounds way low to me because of all the special effects excess), director Matthew Vaughn's adventure romance fantasy is tracking horribly for its Friday opening in 2,300 theaters. "The over/under this weekend is at $15 million," one of my box office gurus tells me. Yikes! Plus, the trailers starring Claire Danes, Robert DeNiro, Michelle Pfeiffer and Sienna Miller have to be among the worst I've ever seen. (They remind me of the promos for that huge Terry Gilliam bomb, The Adventures Of Baron Munchausen, though Stardust's producers prefer to compare their pic to Princess Bride on steroids.) Anyway, though it'll do nil biz domestically, Paramount is still "very bullish" on the pic's chances overseas because of the international cast. But, seriously, look at all the Paramount-branded bombs this year: last weekend's Hot Rod, plus Next, Shooter and Zodiac (a leftover from the Sherry Lansing era). Yet the studio is now first place in market share only because of DreamWorks, which is about to cross the $1 billion mark at the domestic box office this year.

2) So here's the silver lining: I'm told Paramount is only into the pic for $35 million because it's distributing worldwide through PPI for the studio's full fee. The other 50% was financed mostly by Peter Morton with Vaughn's UK-based MARV Films and Ingenious Film Partners, one of the biggest UK players in movie financing. Yes, that Peter Morton, of Hard Rock Cafe and Las Vegas hotel fame. You see, Vaughn is a longtime Morton family friend who bussed tables at the Hard Rock Cafe before Peter started him in showbiz. The Layer Cake helmer also is married to supermodel Claudia Schiffer who read Neil Gaiman's famed novel when she was pregnant and thought her husband should make it into a film.

The Simpsons Movie is still looking at a great opening this weekend with wide distribution domestically (3,922 theaters) and omnipresent marketing. My box office gurus are predicting at least a $50 million and maybe even a $60 million opening -- even though 20th Century Fox internally projects only high $30s. Once again, the studios keep playing this game of lowered expectations. The story here is that Fox is claiming the toon cost just $75 million to make thanks to so much of the animation work being done in South Korea. That's a bargain! As for Warner's No Reservations (2,425 venues), my box office analysts predict an opening of only $10 mil. This is such a predictable chick flick with one of the worst trailers, not to mention miscast with Catherine Zeta Jones, that it defies explanation. Some media have asked me whether Lindsay Lohan's troubles will help her Sony horror flick I Know Who Killed Me (1,320 runs). Nah, it'll be stillborn at the box office making only $3 mil. And The Weinstein Co's MGM-distributed comedy Who's Your Caddy? should eke out only $2.5 mil.

Next weekend (August 3rd), my box office gurus are starting raise their estimates for The Bourne Ultimatum which is getting rave reviews. The Matt Damon quintessential action pic looks more like "mid-$50s at least" now instead of just $40+ mil. One of the film's producers is trying to sucker-bet me that it'll do $60+ mil. As for Lionsgate's Bratz, it looks like a flop.

Sony's summer sleeper Superbad (August 17th) from the Judd Apatow comedy wheel just came on tracking. "With pretty low awarness but high definite interest from the ones who are aware," I'm told.

New Line's Rush Hour 3 (August 10th) is still huge.

Warner's The Invasion (August 17th) came on "soft in all areas".

The Simpsons Movie tracking for its July 27th release is looking very strong, with estimates coming in to me of a $50+ opening weekend. I don't see a single misstep by Fox when it comes to marketing this toon so far: the plot is still somewhat secret, the bloggers are overheated, the 7-Eleven reverse product placement is epic. And the pic's appeal, like the TV series, crosses all ages, races, creeds and ethnicities. "Huge hit" is everyone's analysis, and the foreign gross receipts will be massive.

Universal is already anticipating a big new Matt Damon The Bourne Ultimatum for August 3rd. And they're right: my box office analysts are projecting a $40+ million opening for this threequel in the profitable franchise. That's great for a PG-13 thriller light on CGI these days -- and bigger than Bourne #2 (the June 2002 original The Bourne Identity which opened to $27 mil), but not Bourne #1 (the July 2004 sequel The Bourne Supremacy which debuted to $53 mil). The bad news is that a lot of tentpoles will still be going strong in theaters come August, and I hear reshoots made the price of this Bourne creep upwards. With the new pic billed as the last of this Jason Bourne trilogy, it's a veritable must-see. 

Finally, New Line's Rush Hour 3 came on tracking looking "strong" for August 10th. Too early for numbers. But for weeks and weeks, the trailers have been praised for being especially funny.

SUNDAY AM: Paramount says PG-13 Transformers officially made $22.7 million Friday and $25.9 million Saturday and a projected $18.9 million Sunday from 4,011 North American theaters. After a record breaking Fourth Of July mid week opening, I'm told the DreamWorks battle of the bots hauled in a hefty $67.6 million this weekend for a 6 1/2 day cume of $152.5 million. So, in even less time, Transformers now has scored the biggest 7-day opening of all time for a non-sequel, passing Spider-Man 1 ($151.6M), The Passion Of The Christ ($144.6M) and Harry Potter And The Sorcerer's Stone ($129.4). In addition, Transformers has grossed $93.6 million in 29 overseas markets representing 40% of the international business. Paramount estimates the global box office by end of day Sunday at $246.1 mil.

SATURDAY AM: Paramount says PG-13 Transformers made $22.5 million Friday from 4,011 North American theaters and has a new cume of $107.4 million. Box office gurus tell me that, after a record breaking Fourth Of July week opening, the DreamWorks battle of the bots should haul in $60 million this weekend for a 6 1/2-day cume of $150 million. That's 50% more gross receipts than Paramount anticipated, and 20% more than box office gurus predicted. That's also equivalent to the budget of the rock 'em, sock 'em movie without marketing costs. "Word has gotten out to the parents that it's OK to take the kids," a Paramount exec told me Friday. The studio just told me it believes Transformers's first 6 1/2 days of release positions it as one of the biggest non-sequel 7-day openings of all time, alongside Spider-Man 1, The Passion Of The Christ and Harry Potter And The Sorcerer's Stone. Cinemascope gives Transformers an A with "under 18" and "18 to 24 years olds" giving it an A+. Biggest reason why moviegoers went to see it was "subject matter" (63%) and "type of movie" (35%). Other data have showed a strong nostalgia factor for Transformer toys and toons. Paramount also tells me preliminary exit polling shows that, among general audiences, Transformers is playing strongest with general audiences' older females (Moms) and through the roof with kids (90% of boys say they would definitely recommend) and parents (82% say they would definitely recommend). But the studio believes that what is making the big box office difference is not just African Americans flocking to see the film but especially Latino audiences. They attribute this to the casting of Amaury Nolasco, the star of a popular telenovela as well as Fox's Prison Break who in the movie plays ACWO Jorge "Fig" Figueroa. He was recently included in a USA Today list of the 26 guys to watch. Meanwhile, Transformers has smashed one-day records for Tuesday ($27.8M), Wednesday ($29M), and Thursday ($19.1M) as well as for Independence Day. On Monday night, the pic directed by Michael Bay and supervised by Steven Spielberg took in $8.8M.

FRIDAY AM: Transformers makes $19.1 million Thursday for new record.

THURSDAY AM: Paramount's official Transformers number for Wednesday is $29.1 mil from 4,011 North American theaters -- which means the DreamWorks battle of the bots recorded the best gross ever for a Fourth Of July. It also recorded the biggest Wednesday non-sequel of all time, beating The Passion Of The Christ ($26.5M on Wednesday February 25, 2004). So now its cume is $65.7 for the first 2 1/2 days of release since Monday night. Until now, Spider-Man 2 held the record for the holiday ($21.9 mil on July 4, 2004, or down 35% from the previous day). Transformers' receipts actually went up 4.3% from Tuesday to Wednesday, something that never happens on July 4th when outdoor activities usually rule. But rainy weather in the East helped fill seats for the Michael Bay-directed, Steven Spielberg-supervised pic. 

WEDNESDAY PM: I hear unofficially DreamWorks' Transformers made at least $29 million for July 4th from 4,011 North American theaters. That's a lot of moolah for a movie on this U.S. holiday when families are out and about during the day and watching fireworks at night. Paramount won't have the official number until Thursday morning, so stay tuned. But adding $29 mil to the $36 mil in 36 hours the pic already took in, and that's a total $65 mil for this Battle Of The Bots' first 2 1/2 days of release. And the studio still has another four full days to go through Sunday. It's clear that Transformers will have no trouble fulfilling Paramount's lowered expectations of $100 mil, and likely even box office gurus' projections of $125 mil for the 6 1/2 days.

WEDNESDAY AM:  Paramount tells me that DreamWorks' Transformers outgunned the competition to take in $27.4 million during its first full day of release Tuesday in 4,011 North American theaters. This represents the biggest box office in history for a movie on a Tuesday, beating Pirates Of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest ($27,450,000 to $15,731,919). Combined with Monday night's $8.8 million from about 3,000 venues, that's $36.2 mil in the first 36 hours -- a hefty mid-week pre-holiday haul for the Michael Bay-directed, Steven Spielberg-supervised battle bot movie. Considering Tuesday was Fourth Of July getaway day for one of the biggest travel weeks of the year, this was very good business indeed. Again, box office experts expect the rock 'em, sock 'em pic to make $125 mil over the 6 1/2 days Monday night through Sunday; the studio, Paramount / Dreamworks has been lowering expectations to just $100 mil. Reviews for the pic have been mixed (59% positive). But, in a rare occurrence, film critics from bigger media outlets liked the movie better than their colleagues. Nostalgia seems to be the big draw here: most of the moviegoers wanting to see Transformers grew up playing with the toys or watching the cartoons or reading the comic books. 

TUESDAY NOON: Paramount says its DreamWorks' Transformers made $8.8 million Monday night from its North American shows starting at 8 p.m. in about 3,050 theaters. I hear today's matinees were very strong. 

TUESDAY AM: I'm told early unofficial indicators show Transformers made between $8 million and $9 million Monday night, a hefty amount considering the DreamWorks / Paramount pic didn't even start its screenings until 8 p.m. Bizarrely, the studio has not released the official numbers yet, and it's almost noon on Tuesday. (I just got word there'll be a studio announcement of the grosses at 1 p.m. Sheesh. Then the studio forgot to include the Canadian grosses. Double sheesh) Fandango, the major movie ticket seller, is reporting that "dozens" of Monday night Transformers shows were sold out. Nostalgia seems to be fueling the pic's frenzy. In an online survey, several thousand moviegoers told Fandango they were buying tickets to the robot pic because 75% had watched the Transformers cartoons when they were kids, 65% had played with the toys, and 24% had read the comic books. Also, Disney / Pixar's Ratatouille scored an impressive Monday, making $7.5 mil and $7.7 mil.

MONDAY: Nobody I know is predicting less than $125 mil for the  6 1/2-day period starting 8 p.m. tonight through Sunday for rock em, sock 'em Transformers -- except for DreamWorks / Paramount which is lowering expectations to $100 mil. (Note to bloggers picking up my tracking reports: make that $100M to $125M.) Given that the pic has been tracking gigantic for weeks, audiences will eat up this battle of the bots released in a huge number of venues: 4,011 theaters. Granted, Transformers plays like typical Michael Bay macho crap. But Steven Spielberg input his trademark "heart" as well as great special effects. I'm told ILM went overboard to impress because its own George Lucas has teamed up with Spielberg for an Indiana Jones fourquel. 

FRIDAY AM: Yes, it's the start of another nailbiter for gross receipts this summer weekend as blockbusters bust a move in movie theaters. Right now my box office gurus are saying the totals for both films by Sunday look neck-and-neck: between $40 million to $45 million. Naturally, Fox especially is trying to lower 5-day expectations for Live Free Or Die Hard by projecting high $30s (as in millions) since its adult action marketplace is so jammed with high-profile product right now. Disney / Pixar's Ratatouille debuting today also faces a lot of existing family fare yet still managed to score a bountiful 3,940 theaters. And Disney tells me that its toon's tracking has "gotten stronger every day." So ... Will Remy the Rat die hard? Will Bruce Willis get French fried? It's always tough to know what a pic will do from Friday through Sunday when it opens on the Wednesday before. That's the case with Fox's Die Hard 4, which took in $9.1 million Wednesday and $5.9 mil Thursday from 3,408 theaters. While that wasn't anywhere near a record -- only 27th for top single day grosses on a Wednesday -- the studio's exit polls are through the roof for the over the top stunt-filled pic. "Only film that delivers on the hype this summer," is a popular response, and Fox insiders are calling these exit polls the best they've seen since Speed. "These exit polls indicate for the first time this summer that audiences are satisfied and not feeling ripped off," a Fox insider explained to me. The studio knows it won't break daily or weekend records, but could play for a long time. Even the film reviewers have gone ga-ga for the flying cars, huge fireballs, collapsing freeways, and other implausible stunts culminating when a car takes out a helicopter: RottenTomatoes.com is giving Live Free Or Die Hard an overwhelming "fresh" score of 77% from even the snooty critics from major media outlets.

Interestingly, before its debut, the pic had been tracking good but not great, especially doing well with older men and older females who knew the John McClane character well. So I'm told the studio set out to "educate" the under-25 crowd on who was this wise-cracking yippee-ki-yay yelling hero since it had been so long between sequels (back to 1995 when Bruce was still married to Demi). Then again, the Yahoo trailer tested higher than those for any action movie in Fox history. One interesting note: Die Hard 4's premiere at NYC's Radio City Music Hall last Friday was filled with 500 off-duty cops and the audience jumped up and cheered at many moments. Another is that, to make this deal, Willis did not back off his deal which from the start of the franchise has been among the richest. But with a young director, baby-faced co-stars, and little CGI though a lot of analog action, Fox was able to make the film for no more than $125 mil, a veritable bargain this summer of the $300+ mil tentpoles. "We just know how to do that stuff for less," one insider told me. "All our movies are made for less. It's what we do."

In the same vein, Disney / Pixar should have it down to a science by now. But lately this one-two punch of creativity and marketing doesn't pack the box office wallop it once did. Analysts don't expect Ratatouille to equal the $60 mil opening weekend of Cars. But here's another difference between these toons: Cars was a merchandising bonanza while Ratatouille won't be. (What parent wants their kid to hug a plush toy rat?) Still, film reviewers found this toon delicious (an eye-popping 93% fresh reviews on RottenTomatoes.com). No doubt this movie deserves to be seen. Its true financial prospects won't become clear until the Saturday kid matinees. Of course, what appeals to sophisticated film critics may not be accessible to parents or children who can't pronounce the title and don't care about French gourmet repast (unless The Food Network has changed that). Here's hoping the rat doesn't get gout.

Today's Los Angeles Times story finally writes what I've been reporting for the past month about Universal's Evan Almighty, even down to identical language. Theirs: "Saying prayers as Evan Almighty opens to $32 million". Mine: "Moguls at the studio are resorting to just plain prayers." But the LAT didn't even bother to look at the tracking before the pic's release, or the marketing problems, or the exit polling after, as I did, which all tell the story of why the movie opened so weakly. True, Fox's much less expensive, better reviewed, and under the radar Night At The Museum opened to only $30 mil -- but at the end of the Christmas movie season when there was virtually no upcoming competition left for the PG or PG-13 audience. Whereas this crowded summer, blockbuster-branded and critically panned Evan Almighty faces Disney / Pixar's Ratatouille (PG) next week, and future rivalry from Warner's Harry Potter And The Order Of The Phoenix (PG-13), New Line's Hairspray (PG) and Fox's The Simpsons (PG-13). As a result, Night At The Museum went on to make $250 mil domestic. Evan Almighty, I'm told, will have trouble making it much past $100 mil.

1. 'Evan Almighty' Debuts Weak
2. 'Evan Almighty': Going To Heaven Or Hell?
3. Shadyac Mayhem Over 'Evan' Marketing

The summer box office is about to overheat with so many movies racing into theaters, so the studios understandably have a bad case of pre-release flopsweat. Warner's Harry Potter And The Order Of The Phoenix (July 11th) just came onto tracking "huge" which isn't surprising since the next book comes out around the same time. Harry is no longer a cute little tween. He's now an edgy rebellious teen. (This tracking mitigates the talk I've been hearing: that the film had trade screenings in Kansas City, Memphis and New Orleans and reportedly "was considered boring and lacking in magic by teens, who felt that it didn't advance the story or characters. They said it was shorter but felt longer," a source at a rival studio told me.) My sentiment is don't bet against the Harry Potter movies, ever. They're a cut above.

I'm told DreamWorks' Transformers (July 3rd), which was tracking "gigantic" last week, is still "as big as Harry" now. (But not in the Spidey or Pirates stratosphere -- yet.) And its merchandise crap is the hottest in Hollywood. (So maybe Spielberg was right to keep the robots under wraps as long as humanly possible.) My box office gurus keep trying to get their arms around an opening number, but it's next to impossible what with the Paramount pic's debut on a Tuesday. Its roll-out over the Fourth Of July week is also going to wreak havoc with the 3-day number from Friday to Sunday used to compare box office. But from the tracking, this robot pic isn't going to need to break records for PR spin.

Disney's Ratatouille (June 29th) is "usual Pixar big." My analysts forsee a $60 million opening weekend, which would put it on a par with Cars. But here's the difference between these toons: Cars was a merchandising bonanza while Ratatouille won't be. (What parents want to see their kid embrace a plush toy Remy?) I still think that sophisticated film critics are enjoying this movie better than parents and  children will. It's got an unpronounceable title, it's set in Paris (people hate the French), and it's about gourmet cooking (not accessible to America's heartland unless the Food Network has changed that).

Fox's Live Free Or Die Hard (June 27th) continues to track "good but not great." I find this a surprise considering the incredibly well-done ad campaign with special effects that seem to defy gravity. But it's been eons since the last sequel. Expect an opening in the $30+ millions.

After Dark's torture porn Captivity (July 13th) is tracking a big zero even with its Friday The 13th opening which is traditionally favored by horror pics. Hopefully, it'll meet an even worse fate than Lionsgate's torture porn Hostel II. 

There's none of the usual reassuring platitudes. Instead, moguls at the studio are resorting to just plain prayers. Because Universal isn’t even trying to hide its nerves about the opening number this Friday for Hollywood’s most expensive comedy ever, Evan Almighty, or what the movie could make in gross receipts overall. Don't get me wrong, it'll open, either to the $50+ mil my box office gurus are projecting, or the $40 mil the studio is understating. (Every major is a master of lowered expectations this summer.) But, given the $210 mil budget, I'm told it needs $500 million worldwide to be really profitable. Universal, of course, calls this "voodoo math". It claims that the pic's budget is only $175 mil and with no first-dollar gross players thanks to a renegotiation it can see a profit at $250 mil worldwide.

So what's the problem? The parents and kids tracking, which is not included as part of general tracking and therefore not immediately accessible to journalists. I'm told parents were rejecting this big summer film as appropriate family fare because they thought it was the exact sequel to Bruce Almighty and therefore too mature. (Other big four-quadrant PG blockbusters like Night At The Museum didn’t have to contend with this unique "sequel that isn't really a sequel" situation.) "It's awful. It hasn't moved in weeks," a source from a rival studio told me. "Can you tell me how a movie that is PG rated, has 3,000 animals, and boasts God, can't get parents to take their kids?"

It’s not all bad news for the latest Almighty. Many of the other tracking numbers are finally shooting upwards these last days leading to release because of the studio’s Hail Mary marketing onslaught. The "First Choice" numbers for kids doubled over the weekend and and is doubling day by day, while “Want To See” among tweens, teens and young adults keeps rising. But while the movie now has a very high "Awareness" factor, which is a given for a follow-up to a successful film, the crucial indicator of "Unaided Awareness" is still very low. "All our different marketing campaigns are finally starting to really crystallize and accelerate. But we don't have 'Unaided Awareness' yet where we need to see it," a Universal source admitted to me last night. (Today, that figure rose as well.) 

It's a risk when 40% of a studio's movie marketing campaign, by design, is back-loaded like this one. Rightly or wrongly, that strategy was devised for this crowded summer marketplace where tentpole after tentpole is opening weekend after weekend, and moviegoers show signs of sequel fatigue. It saves money (and keeps Universal’s penny-pinching parent company GE from nagging). But it's already pissed off producer/director Tom Shadyac who I previously reported had an explosive meltdown during a Universal marketing meeting about his pic. I'm told Ryan Kavanaugh of Relativity Media, whose tanking Gun Hill Road 2 independent co-financing fund is one of the movie’s principal investors, is among those privately criticizing Evan Almighty's budget and marketing as well. (Kavanaugh is publicly boasting how he capped his share of the costs so the more Evan goes over, the more Uni has to absorb by itself.) Then again, Universal is accustomed to being crapped on for this movie by more than just the animals.

No one would have given a rat’s ass if the movie's budget hadn't done a slow creep way beyond its initial $150 million comfort zone or the film hadn’t been an 89-minute quickie in the comedy genre which is usually cheap to make without the CGI. (Universal’s own R-rated comedy Knocked Up this summer cost a mere $30 mil. And later in the summer, it'll have the PG-13 laugher I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry.) But reporters couldn’t ignore the first smells surrounding a piss-poor combination of animals who didn't want to perform, children who can't work long hours, and weather in Virginia that didn’t cooperate.

Evan Almighty had already been put into production when Marc Shmuger and David Linde entered into their shotgun marriage to run Universal Pictures, with Universal Studios President/COO Ron Meyer playing minister. So don't judge their still brief tenure by this film. There wasn’t much the duo could do for an inadequately budgeted pic in the first place beyond renegotiating profit participation deals so the studio could jettison the first dollar gross players and have at least a prayer of recouping its dough. (There's a "past cash" break now.) In the meantime, the pair have changed the way their studio's film budgets are drawn up and directed, upping Jimmy Horowitz from biz affairs into the newly created role of co-prez of production, aka beancounter as mogul. Even so, few inside or outside the studio initially worried about Evan Almighty’s prospects. Almost everyone thought the pic would be a slam dunk the same way Bruce Almighty was in 2003 when it scored a $68 million opening weekend and went on to nearly $500 million gross receipts worldwide. And this new script had even more God-is-great propaganda than the first one.

Universal moguls have convinced themselves that religious America will turn out for this family fun in droves. I’m not so sure, and I may look like an idiot at the end of the summer by saying so. Even though the studio is dragging out every trick in the Christian playbook, including that PR firm to the religious Grace Hill Media, to convince holy-rollers in fly-over country to see this take-off on the already tired Noah’s Ark tale. I suspect The Passion Of The Christ crowd wants stories based on the New Testament than the Old Testament. Leave it to heathen Hollywood not to comprehend that.

But Evan isn’t so much a Bruce sequel as it is a spin-off, more like an adopted brother than a blood brother with very different DNA in terms of content and audience appeal. And yet the studio marketing still told audiences that Bruce begat Evan. Instead of Jim Carrey, the pic has not-nearly-as-famous Steve Carell (but considering the trajectory of Jim’s career vs Steve’s right now, that could turn out not to be a bad thing except in foreign markets). The rating has gone from PG-13 to PG. A two-quadrant pic became a four-quadrant movie. The boob and toilet jokes are gone in Evan. Instead, the humor has been sacrificed at the altar of heartwarming. Last week, both Variety and The Hollywood Reporter reviews complained about the lack of yucks. 

Still the studio is placing its trust in Shadyac, whose movies (Ace Ventura, The Nutty Professor, Liar Liar and Patch Adams) don’t please snot-nosed critics but satisfy lame-ass audiences. Now, even the long-standing relationship between the director and Universal is frayed. That became evident a few weeks ago when he blew up at a studio marketing meeting, bitch-slapped executives and fired his own long-time marketing consultants Buffy Shutt and Kathy Jones. Even though the director calmed down later and apologized, even though he always gets nervous before his movies open, Shadyac was unusually maniacal because he thought Universal wasn't buying enough TV time. (See my previous: Shadyac Mayhem Over 'Evan' Marketing for more detail.) Since his blow-up, Shadyac is looking right on the money and Universal is looking wrong. 

Warner's Harry Potter commercials were already on the air in May even though it doesn't open until July 11th. But not Evan Almighty. Though TV ads started popping up recently on Nickelodeon and networks, the studio was also marketing the pic in non-traditional ways through 50-city screenings aimed at church groups and religious leaders. Also, movies like Spider-Man 3 and Pirates of the Caribbean 3, which opened on the same day in markets around the world, garnered humongous global marketing budgets, whereas Evan Almighty spent the usual $50 million for a domestic only release. Shadyac wanted the marketing for his $210 million pic to increase accordingly to at least $80 mil. Universal balked. "We're not just going to throw money away because Tom wants to become part of the big summer blockbuster culture," a studio insider told me. Get real. That’s exactly how it’s done.

Whose fault this is, Universal’s or GE’s, is debatable. "It's no secret that GE is looking for ways to cut costs and one of the places those people look first is movie marketing," a Uni source explained. "The parent company keeps asking, 'Why do we have to buy so much network time? And why so early? And why can't we buy it just a week before?' "

Presently, box office gurus expect attendance to fall off sharply Evan's second week out because of this brutal summer. Competing films like Disney/Pixar’s Ratatouille (opens June 29th) is garnering great reviews while Paramount / DreamWork's Transformers (July 3rd) is tracking gigantic. And even though Night At The Museum debuted to only $30 million, it kept going and going for $572 mil worldwide. One of the Universal moguls tells me after some arm-twisting he'd be satisfied with $125 mil before the pic starts opening overseas. To me, that meager figure is Evan Almighty gone to hell, not heaven.

Previous: Shadyac Mayhem Over 'Evan' Marketing