By Bhagirath Yogi
BBC Nepali service
 

 
The collapse of the Nepalese peace process was not entirely unexpected. But until the last minute both sides were still telling the public they were committed to dialogue.

The government, and the Maoist rebels fighting it, were under pressure to find a peaceful end to a seven-year-old insurgency that has already claimed over 7,000 lives.

But at the third round of talks in western Nepal last week, the two sides failed to find a common position.

Monarch or Mao?
The rebels insisted that elections must be held for a constituent assembly, which would then draft a new constitution and decide the fate of the monarchy in the Himalayan kingdom.

The royal-appointed government, on the other hand, said it did not see any justification for creating the constituent assembly. It said it would allow the existing constitution to be amended or re-written - but no more.

A reconciliation of these positions was never going to be easy, but a large section of the society still hoped that both sides would at least agree to keep talking.

But, analysts say, the Maoist leadership was also under pressure from within its own ranks, with battle-hardened cadres straining to launch fresh offensives against government forces.

The rebels walked out of a ceasefire and earlier peace talks in November 2001, complaining that the government was not paying enough attention to their demands.

After the 11 September attacks in the US, the government at the time in Kathmandu swiftly labelled the rebels as terrorists, imposed a nationwide state of emergency and mobilised the army for the first time to fight the Maoists.

Over 5,000 people were killed in the last year alone, until the rebels agreed to try out a ceasefire again in late January this year.

Under pressure
It is not yet clear how the present government of Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa will deal with the new security challenges.

Some see Wednesday's announcement as just a pressure tactic from the rebels.

The situation, however, comes at an unpredictable time, with parliament dissolved for the summer and major political parties launching street protests against a royal decision last year to sack the popularly elected government.

After dismissing the government on October 4, 2002, King Gyanendra assumed executive powers himself. Not long afterwards, Mr Thapa was appointed as premier, and the king announced that he had vested executive powers in his government.

The days ahead are going to be most difficult for the Nepalese people, who were hoping for a return of peace, however fragile it might be.

The foreign factor
The future seems unpredictable. While the resumption in hostilities is likely to weaken further the democratic process in the country, analysts say neither the government nor rebels are in a position to achieve a decisive victory in their fight spanning the rugged terrain of the country.

Another factor is the added interest of major outside powers in the country's domestic affairs, mainly the US, UK and India.

All three of them have helped the Royal Nepalese Army fight the rebels, but India is said to be apprehensive of growing US influence in its backyard.

Nepal shares common, open borders on three sides with India and the Nepalese Maoists are said to enjoy close links with Indian leftists across the frontier.

There are fears that the insurgency could turn into a conflict whose impact may be felt within the region and beyond.

Hence there is likely to be more pressure on both sides to return to the negotiating table with more flexible positions.