Written by Dave Cohen
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Wednesday, 13 February 2008 |
Industrial societies turn their citizens into image-junkies; it is the most irresistible form of mental pollution... Ultimately, having an experience becomes identical with taking a photograph of it. —Susan Sontag Eric Janszen, founder of iTulip, has caused quite a stir with his Harpers' article The Next Bubble: Priming the markets for tomorrow's big crash. Janszen's thesis is that the web and housing overvaluations were not an accident—the American economy must lurch from bubble to bubble to keep the "growth" party going, so another bout of irrational exuberance is required to make everything right now that the housing market has gone belly up. |
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Written by ASPO-USA
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Wednesday, 06 February 2008 |
HOUSTON (Feb. 6, 2008) – A group of businessmen and energy experts who believe that global oil production will soon peak, plateau and decline has issued a $100,000 wager to Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), a prominent oil forecasting group. Members of the challenger group also renewed an invitation to hold a public debate on the issue of peak oil with CERA. The group is betting against CERA’s June 2007 forecast that world oil production capacity will reach 112 million barrels per day (mmb/d) by 2017, which extrapolates* to107 mmb/d of actual production, up from about 87 million barrels today. CERA will hold its annual conference in Houston next week. |
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Written by Steve Andrews
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Monday, 11 February 2008 |
Some readers have been asking questions about the bet. Here, quickly, is a little more flesh for the bones of the CERA challenge. Why the bet? Back in this publication’s January 21* Commentary, Randy Udall and I explained our rationale for the bet. In a nutshell, we highlighted two facts. First, CERA calculated a world decline rate of 4.5%/year; that’s almost 4 million new barrels a day that have to be brought on line just to keep world production flat. Second, CERA then dodged the huge implications of that decline rate, arguing that “our model shows that liquids capacity could climb to 112 million barrels a day by 2017…” The disconnect here left us dumbstruck, hence the challenge. |
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