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And the Oscar nominations will (may) go to …

By Eric Robinette | Monday, January 21, 2008, 08:00 AM

The Oscar nominations are at hand, and I’m about as nervous as the Academy right now.

The Academy is concerned about whether their show will go on at all, with the writers’ strike still dogging Hollywood. I’m concerned about these predictions. So if I were you, I’d hesitate to use these in an office pool.

Most years, there are a number of major categories in which I’m pretty confident that I’ve correctly predicted at least four out of the five nominees. This year, few, if any categories inspire such confidence. There are not as many locks as usual. Many of the races have only two or three solid choices, followed by two or three turkey-shoot slots.

Still, I’ve done my best to sort them all out and give you my best guesses for the nomination announcement Tuesday morning. If you hear a loud scream during the Best Actress spot, that will be me cheering on Amy Adams. If you don’t, pass the tissues.

And, as always, remember two sayings. In the words of William Goldman, “Nobody knows anything.” And in the words of William Munny, “Deserve’s got nuthin’ to do with it.”

A * denotes a lock.

BEST PICTURE

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

There Will Be Blood

Alternates: Atonement, Into the Wild, Sweeney Todd

Pretty much everyone agrees that No Country, Juno and Clayton are the safe bets, leaving two open slots. Atonement, the onetime front-runner, has faded badly in the stretch, with almost no mentions from groups with members that overlap with the Academy. Focus Features screwed up by going wide too late. I won’t rule it out, but it’s on very, very shaky ground. But Diving Bell and There Will be Blood have both been on an upswing of late, with both popping up in award list after award list. Not far behind, Sean Penn’s Into the Wild, which has a lot of passionate support, but is it enough? I think it will just miss.

BEST DIRECTOR

Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will be Blood*

Sean Penn, Into the Wild

Alternates: Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd; Sidney Lumet, Before The Devil Knows You’re Dead; Joe Wright, Atonement

The Coens are gimmes here, and although Anderson hasn’t received a director’s nom before, his auterist style appeals strongly to directors, and his film has a lot of heat. Gilroy’s work may not be flashy, but he captured a filmmaking style that was popular in the 70s, so he’s a safe bet. I think this branch will also respond well to Schnabel’s bold use of subjective camera in his movie about a paralysis victim, and to Penn’s passion for Into the Wild. Potential Spoiler: The revered Lumet, although I’m guessing Penn’s film has much more heat. Juno is seen as more of a writer’s film than a director’s film, so Jason Reitman gets left out.

BEST ACTOR

George Clooney, Michael Clayton*

Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

Alternates: Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl; James McAvoy, Atonement, Denzel Washington, American Gangster

Day-Lewis and Clooney are your locks here. The former will almost certainly win, the latter almost certainly will not. Hirsch, I believe will sweep in on a wave of support for Into the Wild. I had earlier predicted Mortensen would not be Oscar nominated, but I will be happy if/when his brilliant, one-of-a-kind performance, proves me wrong. It’s been strong enough to keep him alive. Depp I’m least sure about, but he is well liked, and the performance has gusto that I think will push him in over Gosling, the much more subtle choice - although Gosling is the most likely spoiler.

BEST ACTRESS

Amy Adams, Enchanted

Ellen Page, Juno*

Alternates: Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age; Keira Knightley, Atonement; Laura Linney, The Savages

OK, I’m sure some of you are crying bias over my choice of Adams, but let me explain. Christie, Cotillard and Page are your sure bets. I had been shaky on Jolie, since her film did not do well, but she’s shown up in too many precursor races to be ignored. That leaves three candidates fighting for the last slot. Blanchett is always highly watchable, but her film didn’t do well either, so she’ll get in only if the voters are lazy and nominate her by default, just as SAG did. I’m betting/hoping AMPAS won’t make the same mistake. Knightley is not the major player in Atonement, so her fortunes are falling with the film. Linney hasn’t built enough of a groundswell. Adams, on the other hand, has been in a widely seen film, and everyone who sees it loves her in it. And affection counts for a lot in these races, so I think she’s in. She’d better be.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James …

Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton*

Alternates: Paul Dano; There Will be Blood; Tommy Lee Jones, No Country for Old Men; John Travolta, Hairspray

Bardem is the absolute surest nomination in the whole pack. If he somehow fails to make it in, surgeons will make a mint reattaching jaws everywhere. Wilkinson is another very safe bet with his showy role. From there it gets much cloudier. I think Holbrook has an excellent chance at the “How come we never nominated this vet?” slot with his brief but touching work. The well-respected Hoffman steals scenes left and right in Charlie Wilson’s War, so I like his chances. I’m shakiest on Affleck, since opinion is divided on his film, but he has more across the board support than Jones, so he gets the slot, though I wouldn’t be shocked if Jones sneaks in.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There*

Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

Alternates: Catherine Keener; Into the Wild; Jennifer Garner, Juno; Kelly McDonald, No Country for Old Men; Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement

Blanchett and Ryan are mortal locks, Swinton less so, but still quite likely. Dee’s scenes in Gangster are brief but very memorable, so she stands out, and she, like Holbrook, is another vet who is long overdue for recognition. Many people seem to be going for Keener, but she doesn’t stand out in her film nearly as well as the other candidates do. So for the fifth slot, I’m going to bet that young Ronan is Atonement’s lone above the line nomination. The film belongs to her character, and she has much more attention than the other women who play her, Vanessa Redgrave and Romola Garai. Personally, I’m rooting for the underappreciated Garner to grab a surprise nom.

Below the line pics are after the jump. Do comment and tell me how you think the race is shaping up.

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‘Cloverfield’ delivers

By Eric Robinette | Friday, January 18, 2008, 07:42 AM

I’m not going to tell you what the Cloverfield monster looks like. I’m going to tell you exactly what it is.

It’s Frankenstein’s monster.

No, I don’t mean that the latest creature laying waste to New York City is the big lug with the bolts sticking out of its neck. I mean that this movie is made up of bits and pieces of other movies. It’s part Godzilla, part War of the Worlds (the Spielberg version), and part Blair Witch Project.

However, by seeming a lot like other movies, it ends up feeling not quite like any other movie out there. Cloverfield isn’t a great film, and it’s not exactly original, but it is exciting.

There is one movie it’s not like, however, and that’s Snakes on a Plane. Internet buzz fueled both movies, yes, but SoaP, as it was amusingly abbreviated, didn’t live up to the hype because the hype was more fun than the very low-grade thrills of the actual movie. Cloverfield trumps it by being much more imaginative.

However, I won’t tell you much about the plot. The less you know about Cloverfield going in, the better off you are. It’s teasing, vague ad campaign wasn’t a mask of low quality - it was a necessity.

All you need to know is that a big monster attacks Manhattan, and as in Spielberg’s War of the Worlds, the calamity is shown entirely from the limited viewpoint of the victims, who can’t always see and don’t always know what’s going on, which only adds to the film’s intrigue. Then, Cloverfield takes that viewpoint one step further, telling the entire story from the “eye” of a hand-held digital camera, as it follows a group of friends trying to deal with the chaos.

That means that if the shaky-cam style of movies like Blair Witch or the Bourne sequels doesn’t sit well with you, you should stay far, far, far, far, far away from Cloverfield. By comparison, the camera technique here makes those other movies look like models of restraint.

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April Movies: To shower at a theater near you

By Eric Robinette | Thursday, January 17, 2008, 03:23 PM

Here is the final installment of the winter/spring movie preview. For January/February’s movies, including what comes out on Friday, click here. March’s movies are previewed here. Meanwhile, April actually holds some promise. No fooling.

APRIL 4

Henry Poole is Here: Luke Wilson abandons his fiancée and family business to spend what he believes are his remaining days alone until The discovery of a “miracle” by a nosy neighbor. Hard to know what to make of that premise, but the director is Mark Pellington, who’s shown good visual flare in The Mothman Prophecies and Arlington Road.

Leatherheads: George Clooney stars in directs a sports story/screwball comedy about the good ol’ days of football. Renee Zellweger is the female lead; John Krasinski the comic foil. Here’s one project delayed from last year I’m actually looking forward to.

Nim’s Island: Abigail Breslin and Jodie Foster star in an adventure movie geared towards girls. Sounds fun.

The Ruins: a group of Americans when they head into the jungle to look for the missing brother of a fellow traveler. Jena Malone starring in an adaptation of a story by the author of A Simple Plan has me intrigued.

Shine a Light: I’ve never been a big Rolling Stones fan, but I’m still hot to see this documentary, because Martin Scorsese directed it and appears on camera to hilarious effect, particularly when he’s trying to explain his plans to use cameras.

APRIL 11

College: A wild weekend is in store for three high school seniors who visit a local college campus. One of them is Kevin Covais, the non-singer from season five of American Idol. Ack.

Prom Night: A murderous psycho chases Brittany Snow around. She showed talent in Hairspray, has she nothing better to do?

Smart People: A new love comes Into the life of a widowed professor - and so does a visit from an adopted brother. Dennis Quaid, Sarah Jessica Parker, Thomas Haden Chruch and Ellen Page lead a promising cast.

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Movies come MARCH-ing in: A preview

By Eric Robinette | Wednesday, January 16, 2008, 11:59 AM

And now I continue our preview of winter/spring movies (such as they are). Check back here for January and February’s movies; I tackle March today.

MARCH 7

The Accidental Husband: Radio talk show host Uma Thurman advises one of her listeners to break up with her boyfriend (Morgan), the jilted ex sets about getting his revenge. Hmm. Seems like Uma’s on a vengeful mate kick these days, what with My Super Ex-Girlfriend under her belt. Directed by Griffin Dunne. who seems to specialize in light, indistinct movies like Addicted to Love and Practical Magic.

The Bank Job: A group of criminals are tricked into a heist, thinking they are going to rip off the safety deposit boxes of wealthy citizens. Turns out they’re recruits on a mission to steal photos of a Royal princess who was snapped in some compromising situations. Intriguing premise, good cast (Jason Statham, Safron Burrows) hit-or-miss director Roger Donaldson (Species, No Way Out) - who knows?

College Road Trip: Martin Lawrence mugs his way though a slapstick comedy playing a doofus dad trying to escort his daughter on a (insert title of movie here). The trailer makes me cringe, and to make matters even worse, the director is Roger Kumble, who made The Sweetest Thing, one of the most dreadful excuses for a chick comedy ever to stain a strip of celluloid. Ptooey.

10,000 BC: Roland Emmerich (Independence Day, The Day After Tomorrow) brings us another effects-filled spectacle, this time focusing on wooly mammoths n’ such. Personally, I’m disappointed it’s not an adaptation of the comic strip BC. I’d love to see how Emmerich would shoot a chase on one of those stone-wheel unicycles.

MARCH 14

DOOMSDAY: Neil Marshall, the director of the very nifty little chiller, The Descent, returns with a deadly virus movie starring Bob Hoskins and Rhona Mirtra. Deadly plague is a bit overdone these days (28 Days/Weeks Later, I Am Legend et al), but I’m curious to see what Marshall brings to it.

Horton Hears a Who: I have mixed emotions on this Dr. Seuss adaptation. The trailer has a decent amount of clever gags, but there’s also way too much modern dialogue that’s decidedly un-Seussian. Hollywood hasn’t had very good luck adapting Seuss, ranging from the passable but disappointing Grinch Who Stole Christmas, to the flat-out odious Cat in the Hat. The production company is Blue Sky Studios, which made the overrated Ice Age movies and the disappointing Robots. Hmmmmmmph … we’ll see. The Grinch (AKA Jim Carrey) leads the voice cast.

Never Back Down: A teen (Sean Faris) is lured into an underground fight club, where he finds a mentor in martial arts veteran Djimon Hounsou. I’ve no read on this one.

Pride and Glory: A police family’s moral compass spins when Edward Norton), investigates a case that reveals an police corruption scandal involving his own brother-in-law (Colin Farrell). Directed by Gavin O’Connor, who made Tumbleweeds and Miracle (cool), but co-written by Joe Carnahan, who last made the ugly Smokin’ Aces (uh-oh.)

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Winter/Spring movie preview: January-February

By Eric Robinette | Tuesday, January 15, 2008, 11:33 AM

Today would normally be the day I highlight the DVD releases, but when your choices are Good Luck Chuck with Jessica Alba and Dane Cook, and Mr. Woodcock, the 329th movie with Billy Bob Thornton playing an acid-tongued creep …. honestly, why bother?

So instead, starting today and running through Thursday, I am going to highlight the movies that are coming out between now and April. This ought to be a real adventure, since many films that come out in this time period, kinda, oh - what’s the word …?

Suck! Yeah, that’s it!

Still, since I’ve done previews of summer movies and fall/holiday movies, I guess it’s only fair that the January-April movies get their due. So let’s wade through the muck and see if we can’t find any pearls.

THIS FRIDAY

Cloverfield: What is it about New York City that make filmmakers want to destroy it all the time? Whatever it may be, the City That Never Sleeps gets knocked around some more, courtesy of a giant monster. The action is seen from a small group of people and filmed in hand-held shaky-cam style, a la The Blair Witch Project. Some reviews indicate the film actually lives up to the hype; some don’t.

Mad Money: Three employees of the Federal Reserve — Diane Keaton, Queen Latifah and Katie Holmes — scheme to steal money before it’s due to be destroyed. Does this remind anyone else of Set it Off, another heist movie starring Latifah? Directed, but not written by, Callie Khouri of Thelma & Louise fame.

There Will be Blood: Paul Thomas Anderson’s acclaimed adaptation of Upton Sinclair’s Oil opens locally Friday and is undoubtedly the highlight of the season for me. Daniel Day-Lewis just won a Golden Globe, and he and the overall movie are strong Oscar contenders.

27 Dresses: Always a bridesmaid but never a bride in 27 weddings, Katherine Heigl is aghast as her sister prepares to wed the man she’s secretly in love with (Edward Burns). James Marsden completes the rectangle. This has been going over like gangbusters in sneak previews, making it potentially the first hit of 2008 … and let’s just say I won’t complain if it is.

JANUARY 25

How She Move: Capitalizing on the success of last year’s Stomp the Yard, this movie tells the story of a girl who returns to her old neighborhood, where she eventually rediscovers her love of step dancing.

Meet the Spartans: I’ll just watch 300 again, thanks.

Michael Clayton/No Country for Old Men: Two major Oscar contenders go back into wide release to capitalize on next Tuesday’s hoped-for nominations. That means you have one more chance to see the movies where the filmmakers would prefer that you see them, rather than waiting for DVDs.

Rambo: Let me just ask right now - does Rambo hold the same affection as Rocky does? My guess is no.

Untraceable: Diane Lane plays an FBI agent trying to track down a killer who uses the Internet diabolically. Directed by Gregory Hoblit (Primal Fear, Fracture), who seems to be only as good as his scripts. We’ll see if this is one of the better ones, but it IS January.

February movies after the jump.

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The Golden Globeszzzzzzzzzzzzz ….

By Eric Robinette | Monday, January 14, 2008, 07:39 AM

Zzzzzzz …

Zzzzzzzzzz …

Zzzzzzzzzzzzz …

Oh, I’m sorry. I was writing this post during the Golden Globes “press conference” last night. Ye gods, was that boring or what? People have been talked before about how much better it would be if they simply announced the winners and were done with it, but if that means shows like this, I’ll take the ceremony, thank you very much.

I know NBC got put between a rock and a hard place with the writer’s strike, but did they HAVE to have Billy Bush be one of the “newscasters?” He makes my brain hurt. He wouldn’t notice that effect because he doesn’t have one.

And to add insult to injury, NBC axed some of the minor categories like Best Score and Song. I know a lot of people don’t care about the smaller prizes, but if they’re good enough for the big show, they ought to be good enough for the small one.

Still, awards were handed out, so it’s time for some commentary.

Best Screenplay

The Coens took on their first bona-fide adaptation with No Country for Old Men, faithfully adapting Cormac McCarthy’s novel, but still maintaining their singular voice. That’s the mark of a great adaptation.

Best Score

I wonder: would the score for Atonement have won were the typewriter not providing percussion? Maybe not, but no matter - it’s a fine choice

Best Song

One of Eddie Vedder’s tunes from Into the Wild, “Guaranteed,” wins. I’m not much of a Vedder fan, really - most of his songs sound the same to me. I would have preferred “That’s How You Know” from Enchanted - but I would have really preferred the non-nominated “Falling Slowly” from Once.

Best Supporting Actress

Cate Blachett wins for I’m Not There - no shock there. Gone Baby Gone’s Amy Ryan was thought to be a strong contender, since she’s already won several critics prizes. But Blanchett’s is the kind of very showy performance award-givers love. And it’s deserving to boot - although I thought the pseudo Bob Dylan bio as a whole has been considerably overrated. Blanchett is far and away the best thing about it.

Best Animated Film

Ratatouille won, as it jolly well should have.

Best Actress, Comedy/Musical

Anne Cotillard wins for La Vie en Rose. I would have preferred Amy Adams, as any regular reader of this blog knows, but I’m not at all surprised. Cotillard was playing famed French singer Edith Piaf, and this is the Hollywood FOREIGN press we’re talking about here. I still think when Oscar comes around, the race is between Juno’s Ellen Page or Away from Her’s Julie Christie.

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Nicholson, Freeman sell rusty ‘Bucket List’

By Eric Robinette | Friday, January 11, 2008, 07:56 AM

Watching the dopey but affecting The Bucket List reminded me of the scene in Enchanted when Patrick Dempsey marvels at Amy Adams’ unflagging optimism and says “It’s like you escaped from a Hallmark card or something.” She asks innocently, “Is that a bad thing?”

The Bucket List feels very much like it escaped from a Hallmark card, with all the good and bad that comes with that. The movie is so sweet it’s almost nauseating at times, yet so sincere and endearing in its sentiment that I ultimately bought into it.

That’s primarily due to Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman. The Bucket List is a prime example of a so-so story elevated by considerable star power.

Nicholson and Freeman play terminal cancer patients. Carter Chambers (Freeman) is an eminently decent, hard-working, intelligent man grappling with an uncertain family life. Edward Cole (Nicholson) is the endlessly wealthy owner of the hospital at which he is quite indignant to find himself a patient. Edward fancies himself a wild man who says he likes being married so much he tried It four times, which means his family life is practically non-existent.

So when Carter comes up with the “bucket list” - a roster of last wish-type things to do before you meet your maker - Edward seizes on the idea, taking Carter for the ride of his life - several rides, actually. Do Nicholson and Freeman learn valuable lessons from each other? Does Nicholson act with his eyebrows?

In my preview of films coming out today, I asked if Rob Reiner, who directed this movie, would turn in something as good as When Harry Met Sally… or something as lame as Alex and Emma. For much of The Bucket List, it seems as though the untalented Reiner is at the helm, considering the dull sitcom look of the movie and the ungainly attempts at comedy.

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