Short Synopsis:  Unseasonably warm weather will continue this afternoon and tonight thanks to a moderate wind flow off the Gulf of Mexico.  The temperature should climb into the 80s across much of the region this afternoon.  Overall, the atmosphere is moist but fairly stable.  A slight chance for showers and a few thunderstorms will develop late tonight and Tuesday morning when a Pacific cold front pushes across the area.  Rain amounts will be low.  The threat for rain and storms will end from west to east Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon as the cold front pushes south to the coast.  Dry and breezy conditions will develop Tuesday afternoon behind the front, causing a high risk for wildfires.  Temperatures will turn cooler Tuesday night, with readings falling close to freezing across the Hill Country early Wednesday morning.  The weather still stay dry the remainder of the week and into the weekend as a ridge of high pressure strengthens over the southwestern US.  The temperature will turn cooler this weekend, but milder readings will return early next week.  Today’s long-range solutions call for continued dry weather conditions for most of next week.

Monday’s Report:  The cold temperatures from late last week went away in a hurry over the weekend as southerly winds brought a return of warm, moist air.  The temperature should reach near 80 to 82degrees at most locations this afternoon, readings that are almost 20 degrees above normal.  It will again be very warm and muggy tonight, with lows in the 60s across the eastern half of the region.  A trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere currently located over the Desert Southwest will track east-northeast tonight, reaching the southern Plains states on Tuesday.  The trough will push a Pacific cold front across Texas late tonight and into Tuesday.  Ahead of the front, the atmosphere is very moist but it’s also quite stable.  Despite the stable atmosphere, the front should be strong enough to cause the development of a few light showers across the Hill Country late tonight.  Here, rain amounts will generally be less than 0.10 inches.  Across Central Texas and the coastal plains regions, it appears there will be a slightly better chance for showers and thunderstorms along and just behind the cold front.  The combination of high moisture and somewhat favorable dynamics will cause the development of some showers and storms.  Note most thunderstorms should remain below severe threshold, but a couple of storms across the northern and northeastern counties of Central Texas could become severe, producing large hail and damaging winds.  The main severe weather threat will be well to the north and east of our region.  I expect the threat for rain and storms to occur across the Interstate 35 corridor shortly after sunrise, reaching the coastal plains in the late morning and early afternoon period.  Rain amounts across the area will generally average between 0.25 and 0.50 inches.

Dry and mild air will spread over the area behind the cold front Tuesday afternoon.  Northwesterly winds will increase to a range of 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon.  At the same time, the air will dry out.  Relative humidity levels are forecast to lower to a range of 15 to 25 percent.  The combination of strong winds and low relative humidity readings will cause an increased risk for wildfire danger across the entire region.  The National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag warning for the Central Texas region for Tuesday, from 9 am to 7 pm.  High temperatures Wednesday will range from the mid and upper 60s across the Hill Country to the upper 70s across the coastal plains.  The strong wind will diminish Tuesday evening as temperatures turn noticeably cooler.  Lows Wednesday morning will range include the low 30s across the Hill Country, the mid 30s across Central Texas and near 40 to 42 degrees across the coastal plains.

For the rest of the week and into the weekend, the weather pattern is shaping up quiet and mild.  A dry cold front will sweep through the area early Friday, with another dry front expected late Saturday.  Temperatures will be mild throughout the week, turning cooler this weekend.  High temperatures Wednesday will generally be in the low 60s, rising to the mid and upper 60s on Thursday.  Lows Thursday morning will be in the upper 30s to low 40s.  High temperatures Friday will be in the mid and upper 60s.  Saturday’s front will bring a bit cooler air.  Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the low and mid 60s with lows mostly in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Next week’s weather is shaping up to be dry with warmer than normal temperatures.  The Jet Stream is forecast to lift north as a ridge of high pressure strengthens over northern Mexico and the southwestern US.  I expect mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies throughout the week.  High temperatures throughout the week should generally be in the 70s.  Winter is far from over, but it appears we’re going into a mild period over the next week to ten days.

Bob