December 2006 - Posts
First Read is taking a little holiday breather. Although we'll be posting here as political news warrants over the next week, we will be back in earnest with our daily morning missive and updates on January 2. We wish everyone happy and healthy holidays --
Huma, Mark and Elizabeth
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
So for John Edwards the day has finally come to say he's in the race. Sure, all the signs have been there as he prepared to launch a new campaign, but one quirky clue goes back to March 2004.
I had been covering Edwards' campaign, tracking him on planes and buses from Iowa's surprise second-place finish through Super Tuesday, when his hope for the nomination fell apart. Those of us in his press corps headed for North Carolina, where Edwards dropped out and threw his support to John Kerry. His speech was in the gym of the high school his late son had attended. It was the end of the line for him and also for those of who wrote about his campaign.
Before heading our separate ways, a bunch of us planned one last dinner together at a Raleigh restaurant. We had a back room to ourselves making it easier to laugh and swap stories. Then came a surprise knock on the door of that back dining room. John and Elizabeth Edwards had the same idea. They had a booth in the restaurant, heard we were there and came by to send us off.
Both seemed upbeat considering very big aspirations had been dashed. They tried to show good humor as they noted how quickly they were back in civilian life. The Secret Service detail was already gone. After brief good wishes to everyone. Elizabeth Edwards turned to her husband and said "Should we tell them?" He nodded in agreement. Elizabeth explained that something unexpected happened when they checked in to their hotel the night before dropping out of the race. She set up the punch line and then delivered the big, foreshadowing hint. Their hotel room number was 2008.
Of course, we saw them again in July when he joined the Kerry ticket. But we already knew he had a key that opened the door to 2008.
From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
Former Sen. John Edwards (D) told NBC's Matt Lauer on TODAY this morning that he's running for president to urge people to take action to change things and make the country better. He rejected the suggestion that his lack of foreign policy experience will be a problem, arguing that the current Administration has a wealth of foreign policy experience and it hasn't helped them figure out what to do about Iraq. And he repeated his earlier repudiation of his vote in favor of the war.
In an e-mail sent to supporters overnight, Edwards emphasized a new approach he's taking in this second attempt to win the presidency: posting video clips of himself on YouTube as he goes about his campaign in an effort to let supporters get a look at him that's unfiltered by the media. One emerging theme of Edwards' is that he spent too much time during his first campaign listening to his paid consultants tell him what to do and say, and not enough time letting people see the real him. This is evident even in Edwards' statement yesterday about the passing of President Gerald Ford: "President Ford once said, 'At times it feels as if American politics consists largely of candidates without ideas, hiring consultants without convictions, to stage campaigns without content… It doesn't have to be this way.' He was right."
It's a theme that could serve Edwards well if he has to campaign for the Democratic nomination against "real, unvarnished" Barack Obama -- and against Sen. Hillary Clinton, who seems to strike some voters as too cautious and politically calculating. From New Orleans, Edwards sets off on a series of town halls in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.
From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
We'll take a wild guess and say that former Sen. John Edwards (D) is about to announce his candidacy for president. Edwards e-mailed his supporters over the holiday weekend, titling the e-mail "The big decision" and writing that he's going to try to "bring Americans together in all fifty states to tackle the big challenges facing our country, from poverty and lack of health care, to energy and global warming." (Edwards didn't talk much about global warming when he ran in 2003-2004, but the topic seems to be a hit among Democrats considering the presidency these days after Al Gore found success with his film "An Inconvenient Truth.")
Edwards also has a live TODAY interview scheduled for tomorrow morning from New Orleans' Lower Ninth Ward. And the New York Times pretty much reports today that he will indeed pull the trigger tomorrow.
With Edwards' entry, the political press corps will have to resist the temptation to cast the Democratic primary as a two-person race between Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, Newsweek covers notwithstanding. The most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows that Edwards, rather than Clinton or Obama, is the only Democratic contender who beats Sen. John McCain (R) in a nationwide head-to-head match-up. Edwards defeats the presumed GOP frontrunner by 43% to 41%. That said, he placed third in the Democratic primary trial heat, with Clinton far ahead at 37%, Obama at 18%, and Edwards at 14%.
From NBC's Ken Strickland
Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson's office has issued a statement on his status. He remains in critical condition in intensive care. He "is recovering as expected from brain surgery and his brain pressures continue to be in the normal range," Anthony Caputy, M.D., Chairman, Department of Neurosurgery, at the George Washington University Hospital. "Senator Johnson is sedated to allow his systems to rest and recover from the hemorrhage and we anticipate no further tests or procedures in the near future," says Vivek Deshmukh, MD, neurosurgeon. "This is expected to continue through the holidays."
From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
After former Gov. Mark Warner (D) abandoned his fledgling bid and Sen. George Allen (R) lost his seat on election day, it looked like Virginia wasn't going to be represented in the 2008 presidential field, after all. But former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R) plans to change that on January 2 when, per a press release from his law office, he expects to form an exploratory committee.
Gilmore is trying to fill the shoes that Allen had intended to fill as the mainstream conservative candidate in the GOP field. "It is my intention to fill that void," he says in the release. "For the Republican party to be successful we need electable candidates who can articulate a positive, mainstream conservative message that can reach all Americans." But it's unclear (to doubtful) whether Gilmore can raise the necessary money and campaign apparatus in what now seems like a relatively short period of time, since rivals John McCain and Mitt Romney have been in the race for months.
Gilmore served as governor of Virginia from 1998 until 2002 after campaigning famously on cutting the state's car tax. The press release also touts that Gilmore, who was governor when the Pentagon was attacked on September 11, 2001, chaired "the Congressional 'Gilmore Commission' from 1999 to 2003 to assess America's terrorism response capabilities." He's also a former chairman of the Republican National Committee.
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell and Elizabeth Wilner
President Bush will hold a news conference this morning just after 10:00 am ET. Topics will include an update on Bush's "consultative process on the new way forward in Iraq" and his "inclination" to increase the size of the US military. He's also certain to be asked about his comment to the Washington Post that the Iraq war is now in a stalemate (after having asserted just recently that the United States is winning the war), and also about Gen. John Abizaid's resignation.
Bush also will discuss the economy and his "commitment" to work in a bipartisan way with the new Congress.
This will be the President's 30th solo news conference and the 18th of his second term. The last was November 8, when he announced the resignation of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.
From NBC's Mark Murray
The biggest political story of 2008, of course, will be the wide-open presidential race. However, a lesser -- yet equally important -- story will be whether Democrats can hold onto their majorities in Congress. The man who will be in charge of keeping control of the House is Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D) of Maryland, whom incoming Speaker Nancy Pelosi today tapped to succeed Rahm Emanuel as chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Van Hollen was elected to Congress in 2002, when he beat incumbent Rep. Connie Morella (R). In the 2008 battle for the House -- Democrats will be holding onto a 233-202 advantage -- Van Hollen will square off against Rep. Tom Cole (R) of Oklahoma, who was elected chair of the GOP House campaign committee last month.
From CNBC's Karin Caifa
Former Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson thinks the most dominant issue in the 2008 presidential campaign, next to the war on terror, will be health care. He adds that those issues along with geography could give him an edge in the race.
"It looks good. It looks very promising and encouraging," Thompson said of a potential bid in an interview with cnbc.com this morning. Thompson announced last month that he would form an exploratory committee and has made about 10 trips to the crucial caucus state of Iowa so far.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC Des Moines affiliate WHO-TV's Dave Price
Outgoing Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) does The Daily Show tonight. "Host Jon Stewart's been poking fun at the Gov's last name. He uses the AFLAC insurance duck's quacks whenever he talks about Vilsack. All that national exposure ain't nothing to quack about (sorry, had to do it). More than a million people tune into the show each night. Expect Vilsack to ruffle a few feathers during his visit, I'm told, both literally and metaphorically. Don't miss the beginning of the show."
From NBC News sources
Former Speaker Newt Gingrich told NBC's Tim Russert yesterday that he may jump into the presidential race this fall if there's still room in the GOP field. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D) told NBC's Meredith Vieira she's still seriously considering a bid and will decide after the first of the year. Another Democrat who also appears to be leaning toward running and says he'll announce next month, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D) hit New Hampshire this weekend.
While his event in New Ipswich didn't quite measure up to the 1,500-strong crowd who gathered to hear Sen. Barack Obama in Manchester a week before, Richardson nevertheless got a strong showing, per one unaffiliated Democratic activist who attended. About 200 people came to the catered party, complete with heated tent, bartenders, and live music. The crowd included not only local Democratic activists but a busload from Manchester and some from as far away as Rye.
"Richardson spoke briefly, the usual talk about how New Hampshire is the best place to have the first primary, etc., and the usual introductory comments," the activist tells First Read. "He spoke about how he had a budget surplus in New Mexico, raised immunization rates of children, and the like. He mentioned that he met with some North Koreans on Friday night ‘to let them talk’ and that we should be talking to everyone, including North Korea, Syria, and Iran. He mentioned that he told President Bush that they should talk to North Korea. Bush said that North Korea is not a moral country," the activist recounted Richardson saying. "Richardson replied that if we were only talking to moral countries, the only country we would be talking to is the Vatican."
From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana, who on paper looked like a formidable presidential contender in 2008 (former red-state governor with sizeable campaign bank account and extensive political network), has announced that he will not, in fact, seek his party's nomination. "After talking with family and friends over the past several days, I have decided that this is not the year for me to run for President and I will not be a candidate for the presidency in 2008. It wasn’t an easy decision but it was the right one for my family, my friends and my state. I have always prided myself on putting my public responsibilities ahead of my own ambitions," he said in a written statement.
Why, if so strong on paper, did Bayh conclude this wasn't in the cards? Probably because three contenders are sucking up so much oxygen: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards, who plans to announce his candidacy in late December, per the AP. (Of these three, Edwards was the only one to defeat GOP Sen. John McCain in a hypothetical match-up in the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.)
"The odds were always going to be very long for a relatively unknown candidate like myself, a little bit like David and Goliath," Bayh goes on to say in his statement. "And whether there were too many Goliaths or whether I’m just not the right David, the fact remains that at the end of the day, I concluded that due to circumstances beyond our control the odds were longer than I felt I could responsibly pursue."
Bayh's considerable campaign apparatus is now up for grabs.
From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
A top aide to Sen. Barack Obama (D) told us that Obama's big appearance in New Hampshire last Sunday would be his final big "testing-the-waters" move of the year. But just because Obama is at home these days doesn't mean he isn't still sending signals about what seems more and more like a presidential campaign. He recently told the editorial boards of both the Chicago Tribune and the Chicago Sun-Times that he believes he'd be a "viable" candidate and can see his way clear to winning the nomination. The Tribune reports that he'll make his intentions known after a two-week family vacation, while the Sun-Times says he's already giving thought to security concerns and how a security detail would conflict with his preference for traveling without much of an entourage.
From NBC's Ken Strickland and Elizabeth Wilner
Democrats nabbed the Virginia governorship in 2005 and one of the state's two Republican-held Senate seats in 2006, but their chances of snagging the other in 2008 will hinge to a large degree on whether Sen. John Warner (R) seeks re-election or not. For several reasons, including his age (he'll be 80 in February) and the fact that he's having to give up the top GOP slot on the Senate Armed Services Committee, Warner was thought to be considering retirement in 2008. But now he has informed his party's leadership in writing that he is "strongly considering" seeking another term -- precisely because Democrats have been racking up wins in his home state.
In a letter to Senate Republican leaders about committee assignments, Warner says the 2006 election results weighed heavily on him: "Given its forceful impact on Virginia, I am now strongly considering running for reelection to the Senate in 2008."
Should Warner seek re-election, we could see a repeat of the Warner-vs-Warner face-off we saw between the Senate Republican and then-tech entrepreneur Mark Warner (D) in 1996. Since then, Mark Warner has gotten a successful term as governor under his belt, as well as a fledgling run for president in 2008, which he ended a few months ago. Such a rematch would be a battle of the titans.
From NBC's Ken StricklandSen. Tim Johnson's office just released this statement: "Admiral John Eisold, Attending Physician of the United States Capitol said, 'Senator Tim Johnson has continued to have an uncomplicated post-operative course. Specifically, he has been appropriately responsive to both word and touch. No further surgical intervention has been required.'"
From NBC's Courtney Kube and Mark Murray
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld has taped a good-bye message to the members of the U.S. military that began airing on the Pentagon channel this afternoon. In it, Rumsfeld thanks the men and women of the U.S. Armed Forces, who he says "define the American spirit." He brings up the elections in Iraq and the seating of the first democratically elected President in Afghanistan. "You made them possible," he says.
The message runs about five minutes, with Rumsfeld looking straight into the camera with an American flag and the Secretary of Defense seal over his shoulders. "You will remain in my thoughts and prayers," Rumsfeld says.
Tomorrow, President Bush heads to the Pentagon to participate in an Armed Forces full honor review that honors Rumsfeld.
From NBC's Jennifer Yuille
Reprising her role as defender-in-chief, Laura Bush stood by her husband's Iraq policy and blamed the media for his low approval ratings this morning. "I understand why those polls are like that because of the coverage that we see every single day in Iraq. And it is not encouraging coverage, for sure, there's no doubt about it," she told NBC's Norah O'Donnell in an interview. She went on to say that "the drumbeat in the country, from the media from the only way people know what is happening unless they happen to have a loved one deployed there. It's discouraging and I know the facts are not as discouraging."
According to the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, 69% of those surveyed say that they are less confident there will be a successful conclusion in Iraq.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Huma Zaidi
Speaking to reporters on the Hill just a few moments ago, Sen. Harry Reid said he feels "confident" that Sen. Tim Johnson will make a "good recovery." Reid, who has been visiting Johnson at the George Washington University Hospital, added, though, that he would not comment further on Johnson's medical condition because no matter what he says it "would not be enough for [the press]."
Asked what Johnson's condition might mean for the balance of power in the Senate, Reid said things are proceeding as normal on the Hill. "There isn't a thing that's changed," Reid said.
From NBC Des Moines affiliate WHO-TV's Dave Price
Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) just turned 56. It turns out December's a crowded month for the crowded prez field. In fact, December's the most crowded month of all. Five candidates or potential candidates have December birthdays: John Kerry (D), Vilsack, Tom Tancredo (R), Wes Clark (D), and Evan Bayh (D).
So what is it with this Sagittarius crowd? Perhaps, it's in the stars. Astrocenter.com says this:
Sagittarius is well-suited to any career in which communication skills, knowledge, and inspiration are important. This is an employee who will be versatile, adventurous, and knowledgeable. They tend to be easygoing and good-natured and able to adapt easily to change.
The Archer enjoys a workplace that is lively and stimulating. They are not temperamentally suited to a job that is boring or with no opportunity for growth and learning. Sagittarius prefers a career that allows them the opportunity to expand their horizons, travel, and explore. Sagittarius natives do not like to be constricted in their daily routine or have to adhere to a lot of rules. Motivated by challenges and the chance to prove their abilities, this sign will become a life-long learner and will always be looking for new avenues to pursue. They may change careers several times in their life.
No rules. No problem. Be president.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Denizens of the political world are getting whiplash as, after five weeks of adjusting to the concept of Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress, the sudden, serious illness of a Senate Democrat raises the prospect that the expected 51-49 chamber in the 110th Congress could instead be 50-50, with Vice President Cheney in position to break a tie vote for Republicans. Along with everyone else in Washington, our hearts go out to Sen. Tim Johnson and his family; at the same time, our minds can't help but turn to the ramifications should Johnson become unable to serve.
Under South Dakota law, in the event of a vacancy, Republican Gov. Mike Rounds would appoint a replacement for Johnson to serve until the next general election, which in this case happens to coincide with the end of Johnson's second term in 2008. Rounds would not be legally or otherwise obliged to appoint a Democrat. Neither state law nor the Constitution provides a course of action in the event of a serious illness, and there is precedent for incapacitated members of the Senate to remain in office. Johnson, who suffered from symptoms of a stroke yesterday, underwent surgery at a Washington hospital last night. At this writing, his condition is critical.
CONTINUED >>
NBC Newschannel's Steve Handelsman hears that Johnson is talking this morning. NBC's Donna Inserra reports that per Johnson's office, he was in the Senate recording studio yesterday talking to South Dakota media when his speech pattern changed, but he recovered and then walked back to his office. He then said he didn't feel very well, a Capitol physician did a quick check, and he was put in a wheelchair and taken to George Washington University Hospital. Johnson's wife happened to be coming to the Capitol for something unrelated yesterday and accompanied him in the ambulance. Reid spent much of yesterday at the hospital and was expected to go back last night.
NBC's Pete Williams notes that Rounds isn't required to fill a vacancy with a Democrat just because Johnson is one. Has it happened that the governor has appointed someone from a different party to fill a vacancy? Secretary of State Chris Nelson tells Williams, "It's been a long time since a vacancy has been filled this way... We're not sure." Here's what the state law says, per Williams: "Temporary appointment by Governor to fill vacancy in United States Senate. Pursuant to the Seventeenth Amendment to the Constitution of the United States of America, the Governor may fill by temporary appointment, until a special election is held pursuant to this chapter, vacancies in the office of senator in the Senate of the United States. The statute contains no partisan limitation."
CONTINUED >>
USA Today: "One of the proposals developed by top U.S. commanders in Iraq would significantly redeploy troops from a combat role to training and advising Iraqi forces, according to four administration officials. The proposal... calls for changing the mission during the next several months."
The Washington Post says the Joint Chiefs "do not favor adding significant numbers of troops to Iraq... but see strengthening the Iraqi army as pivotal to achieving some degree of stability. They also are pressing for a much greater U.S. effort on economic reconstruction and political reconciliation." Although Bush "has made no final decisions on how to proceed in Iraq... the new disclosures suggest that military planning is well underway for a major change."
CONTINUED >>
The new NBC/Journal poll shows that despite media's urge to cast the two open presidential primaries as a pair of mano-a-mano contests (so to speak), both races are more complex than that.
In the Democratic primary, where all the heat and light lately has been between Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, Clinton remains the far-and-away favorite with 37%, with Obama performing half as well at 18%. Close behind Obama, at 14%, is former Sen. John Edwards. Asked which Democrat has the best chance of winning the general election, Clinton still ranks first with 35%, followed by Edwards at 18% and Obama at 13%. (Sen. John Kerry ranked fourth on both questions.) "It would seem that people haven't exactly bolted from Senator Clinton," comments Hart.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ken Strickland, Mark Murray, and Elizabeth Wilner
Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson of South Dakota has apparently suffered a stroke, two sources tell NBC. Unclear how serious it is. Johnson's office confirms that he was not feeling well this morning and was taken to George Washington University Hospital in DC, where he is being evaluated.
The top concern, of course, is for Johnson and his family, with all of Washington wishing them well. From a procedural standpoint, with control of the currently 51-49 Senate hanging in the balance in the event of a vacancy, reporters are doing due diligence and checking into South Dakota law.
Per South Dakota Secretary of State Chris Nelson, the governor of South Dakota may appoint a replacement if a Senate seat is vacant. The appointment would last until the next general election -- in this case, 2008. Johnson's term happens to expire in 2008, so we would be talking about the remainder of his term. The governor of South Dakota is a Republican, Mike Rounds.
However, this is *if* there's a vacancy. Johnson's seat is not vacant at this time, of course. Nelson says there's nothing in state law that deals with whether one of their members of the Senate is incapacitated. He said the answer would likely come from federal law or the US Constitution.
From NBC's Ken Strickland
NBC News has learned that South Dakota Sen. Tim Johnson (D) has suffered an apparent stroke.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
Voters rebuked House Republicans in the 2006 midterm elections one last time yesterday, ousting Republican Rep. Henry Bonilla from Texas' 23rd district in favor of Democrat Ciro Rodriguez, a former member who lost his seat and lost his first attempt to return to Washington. Democrats complete the 2006 cycle without having lost a single seat, and now claim 233 members of the House to Republicans' 202. Bonilla's loss also is another nail in the coffin for former Rep. Tom DeLay's Texas redistricting plan.
Five weeks later, the Democratic wave that struck on election day remains forceful enough to sweep from office a Republican incumbent who had received 49% on November 7 and needed only to break 50% to win the runoff. Compare that to scandal-plagued Democratic Rep. William Jefferson's win in his runoff last Saturday with 57%, despite getting just 30% of the vote on November 7.
CONTINUED >>
Today's presidential meeting on Iraq is with senior officials at the Pentagon, after which Bush will make a statement. The AP reports that "Bush has decided the general direction he wants to take U.S. policy on Iraq and has asked his staff to work out the details as he wraps up a highly public review of the war and its aims." An unnamed defense specialist tells the AP that "Bush is delaying making public his new Iraq policy plan in part to allow officials to work out the funding."
The Chicago Tribune writes that “strong support has coalesced in the Pentagon behind a military plan to ‘double down’ in the country with a substantial buildup in American troops, an increase in industrial aid and a major combat offensive against Muqtada Sadr… Military officials, including some advising the chiefs, have argued that an intensified effort may be the only way to get the counterinsurgency strategy right and provide a chance for victory.”
CONTINUED >>
The new Gallup Poll for USA Today shows "a 54% majority [saying] Bush will be judged as a below-average or poor president, more than double the negative rating given any of his five most recent predecessors... Overall, Republicans rate Bush third, below Reagan and the elder Bush but above Ford and the two Democrats. They rank Clinton last. Democrats rank Clinton first and Carter second, followed by Reagan, Ford and the elder Bush. The current president is last."
The Washington Post's Milbank looks at Tony Snow's increasing reliance upon the response, "I don't know." "When Snow took over as White House press secretary earlier this year, reporters found it refreshing that he was willing to admit when he didn't know something. This has become rather less refreshing as Snow, while claiming access to Bush's sanctum sanctorum, continues to use the phrase -- more than 400 times so far in televised briefings and interviews... Unsurprisingly, this method has done some damage to briefer-questioner relations."
Apart from the color of skin, Sen. Barack Obama also is distinguished by his name, MSNBC.com's Tom Curry notes. Republican operative Ed Rogers recently caused a stir on MSNBC’s Hardball by mentioning Obama’s middle name, “Hussein.” In every speech, Obama brings up his membership in the United Church of Christ. (He also explains that he borrowed the phrase “audacity of hope” from his UCC pastor in Chicago.) Could he be doing this partly to dispel any mistaken notion that some people might have that he’s a Muslim?
Yes, said Michael Fauntroy, who teaches political science at George Mason University and is the author of the new book "Republicans and the Black Vote." Fauntroy said, “The United Church of Christ is among the more liberal churches in America. Obama is saying that he’s a member of that church to make it known that he’s a Christian. And he is also sending a message to Democrats and leftward people that his policies are guided by a leftward interpretation of faith.”
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The New York Times reports that House Democrats “are seriously exploring” creating an independent ethics watchdog. “Senior party officials said Tuesday that Representative Nancy Pelosi of California, the incoming speaker, had consulted with Representative John A. Boehner of Ohio, the minority leader, on forming a bipartisan group to examine outside enforcement. The goal would be to have the group report back in the spring.”
Pelosi announced yesterday that Jefferson will remain on temporary suspension from his Ways and Means Committee seat until his legal issues are resolved, Roll Call says. As we've reported before, a federal judicial panel recently extended the deadline for briefs in Jefferson's case until mid-April, with oral arguments to come after that.
Rep. Artur Davis, an African-American who is considering a Senate bid in his home state of Alabama, has been awarded the vacant committee seat.
CONTINUED >>
"Americans overwhelmingly say the growing gap between rich and poor has become a serious national concern, a sentiment that may bolster Democrats' plans to narrow the income divide when they take control of Congress," says Bloomberg of their new poll with the Los Angeles Times.
Congressional Democrats have named former Clinton economic advisor Peter Orszag to head the Congressional Budget Office, "the nonpartisan agency that provides lawmakers with cost estimates for legislation and other budgetary analyses."
The San Antonio Express writes up Rodriguez’s upset win yesterday over Bonilla. “Andy Hernandez, a political scientist at the University of Texas at San Antonio and a former [DNC] staffer, said Rodriguez's victory was in step with last month's Democratic upheaval. ‘You have to see this as part of the national trend where Republicans lost in swing districts,’ he said. ‘This anti-Republican trend, which Hispanics had a big part in, played out here.’”
As we've written before, voters might have rejected the Republican party in last month's midterm elections, but they weren't exactly giving the Democratic party a ringing endorsement, either. Some pundits who gathered yesterday at a seminar sponsored by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, including Democratic strategist James Carville and Rep. Tom Davis (R), expressed the same sentiments as they conducted a post-mortem of the election.
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From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
Outgoing Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld was at the White House today and has been participating in the President's consultations on Iraq -- making some of his comments from a December 7 interview with Cal Thomas on FOX rather notable. The official transcript was released today. For starters, Rumsfeld said he had not read the Iraq Study Group report:
Q: Yeah. The Iraq Study Group Report -- you've read it, I'm sure.
RUMSFELD: I haven't.
Q: You haven't?
CONTINUED >>
From CNBC's Karin Caifa
As soon as news hit the wires yesterday afternoon that Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D) would make another bid for the presidency in 2008, I was immediately bombarded with e-mails, text messages, and instant messages. Most of them to the tune of, "He's baaaaaaaack," or, "Are you ready for your second tour of duty?"
I covered Kucinich's 2004 campaign for NBC and MSNBC. Hey, everyone has to start somewhere. In retrospect, at 24, I was lucky to be covering any presidential campaign at all. Even one that consistently polled somewhere between zero and 2%.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell and Elizabeth Wilner
Senior officials tell NBC News that the President's address on Iraq will more likely happen in early January. Advisors had said they hoped to be ready before Christmas, but that was not "locked down," and also had indicated that the week between the holidays did not make sense.
This could make two Bush speeches that 2008 presidential candidates will need to work around as a slew of them plan their own campaign announcements for January, since the State of the Union is expected to take place later in the month.
(To watch Kelly O'Donnell's video, click here.)
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
Suicide bombings in Baghdad have killed at least 56 and injured over 200. During day two of his three-day listening tour/policy review on Iraq, President Bush takes part in a video teleconference with military commanders and the outgoing US Ambassador to Iraq, then meets with the Vice President of Iraq. Yesterday, White House spokesman Tony Snow said that while the White House hopes that Bush can deliver his "new way forward plan" before Christmas, the timing is "not locked down" and the various reviews are not yet complete, per NBC's Kelly O'Donnell.
Congress may have left for the holidays, but two House races still remain somewhat less than settled. One is the unusual case of Florida's 13th district, where Republican Vern Buchanan was declared the winner by 369 votes. Democratic candidate Christine Jennings (D) has not only sought a new, court-ordered election, but is asking the soon-to-be Democrat-run House Administration Committee to seat her instead of Buchanan. The committee is expected to make a recommendation in January.
The other race should be decided in a runoff today between Rep. Henry Bonilla (R) and former Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D), in Texas' massive 23rd district. Recent polls suggest that Rodriguez is closing in on Bonilla. The contest has gotten some national attention because the roots of its competitiveness lie in Tom DeLay's controversial Texas redistricting, because it's the last race still technically unsettled, and because it's a close one that could result in one final blow to the GOP in the 2006 midterm elections. The current breakdown in the House, counting Buchanan's win, is 232-202.
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"While seeking a new course in Iraq, President Bush has not changed his tone about the stakes involved in the war, the importance of victory or his definition of success," the AP observes. "His public remarks in recent days have given no hint of the new direction that White House officials expect Bush will announce in a speech before Christmas. The president's comments sound much as they did in the weeks before the November elections."
The New York Times: “Aides said that through this week’s meetings Mr. Bush was ‘approaching the conclusion’ of his deliberations. But officials said the semipublic nature of the meetings - which were put on Mr. Bush’s schedule last week - were also in part intended to show that he is urgently working on a solution to the worsening instability of Iraq at a time of heavy public pressure to show progress there.” More: “A poll released by CBS News on Monday showed Mr. Bush had his lowest approval rating ever on the war:" 21%."
CONTINUED >>
Sen. Hillary Clinton has dinner with Iowa Democrats at her Washington home this evening. Earlier in the day, she gives an interview to NPR on the role of the National Guard and Army Reserve in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The New York Daily News has former Iowa party chair Gordon Fischer offering some advice to her: visit every county and town before the primary, and stop being a "'control freak.'" Fischer, the paper adds, "is a fan of Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, who is already in the White House race."
The Hartford Courant looks at how Obama's surge from out of nowhere into the public's consciousness as a possible leading contender hurts his colleague Chris Dodd's chances. "If Dodd runs for the White House, he will count on strong support from the African American community. He could also suffer because Obama hurts efforts to get attention as well as raise money for his possible presidential bid... Dodd's troops say that whatever moves Obama or anyone else makes will not influence" Dodd's decision, which "he hopes to make next month."
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CBN News blogs about a comment they got from Gov. Mitt Romney’s communications director in response to a 1994 letter in which Romney, who was challenging Sen. Ted Kennedy (D) at the time, "talks about equality for gays and lesbians." Romney's aide: "Over the past four years as governor, Mitt Romney has not implemented new or special rights in this area and he has not advocated or supported any change in the military's policies. As governor, he's been a champion of traditional marriage. He's fought the efforts of activist judges who seek to redefine marriage, and he's testified before the U.S. Senate in support of the Federal Marriage Amendment." CBN adds: "How quick will Romney be to go in front of the cameras on this topic. Family conservative activist groups like Family Research Council and Focus on the Family are not happy."
The Boston Globe's Canellos looks at some of the moves that have made Romney a serious contender for the Republican nomination.
Sen. Sam Brownback meets with grassroots leaders and activists at the Polk County GOP Christmas party.
Part of the challenge facing the Democratic majority: raising the public's estimation of members of Congress. Currently, members rank about on par with insurance salespeople, per the new Gallup Poll.
In a USA Today profile, Reid shrugs off Bush's recent attempt to bond with him over their shared Western roots. "Out here in Reid's wind-blown patch of the Mojave Desert, the Democratic senator from Nevada says he doesn't feel much kinship with the Republican president, regional or otherwise." More: "He hasn't talked with Bush since their White House meeting in early November, but he is encouraged by contacts from Bush's top aides." He also continues to say he did nothing improper in "his handling of a 2004 sale of Las Vegas property that netted a $700,000 gain."
Members of the Congressional Black Caucus are calling for Rep. William Jefferson to get his Ways and Means seat back, possibly putting Pelosi in an awkward position since Rep. Alan Mollohan (D), who also has had some ethical problems, has not been forced from his influential committee seat (though Mollohan did quit the Ethics Committee).
Incoming Senate Minority Leader tells Bloomberg in an interview that he "will work with the Democrats" on proposals "to limit the influence of lobbyists and increase the minimum wage, while demanding some say in crafting those measures" -- but will also "oppose key parts of the Democrats' 2007 agenda, including proposals allowing Medicare to negotiate lower drug prices and repealing oil-industry subsidies." He also "said he wants to work with Reid on bipartisan legislation bolstering the long-term solvency of Social Security and on a measure overhauling immigration law."
The Washington Post looks at the tough sell White House budget chief Rob Portman, a former House member, faces in trying to work with his old Democratic colleagues toward entitlement reform.
Former Rep. Tom DeLay is back in the mix with a new grassroots organization and a blog. The blog "will include DeLay’s comments, input from conservative bloggers and activists, as well as inside information and interviews," per the announcement. "Most importantly, the blog includes the activation of Tom DeLay’s GAIN - Grassroots, Action, and Information Network," which is "a national network of grassroots activists united for the common goal of shaping and motivating the current conservative movement."
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Pelosi plans to offer legislation to reform the House page program, Roll Call says, while the Washington Times cites the recent House ethics report in saying that Democratic campaign operatives pushed the Rep. Mark Foley scandal to the press and that the party's House campaign committee chief knew about the inappropriate e-mails as early as fall 2005.
The Los Angeles Times front-pages a long look at how GOP Rep. Gary Miller "brought his congressional muscle to bear on personal business matters, according to the former staff members and the correspondence from Miller's congressional office." More: "A real estate developer and one of the wealthiest members of Congress, Miller, 58, routinely asked his staff to handle personal errands, such as helping his children with schoolwork, searching for rock concert tickets and sending flowers to family members and friends... Federal law prohibits members of Congress from using their staff for anything other than official work."
CNBC's Patti Domm advises that the Fed is not expected to take action on interest rates at its latest meeting, but its statement this afternoon will be watched closely to see if it reveals new clues about its thinking on inflation and the economy. The
AP says, "“Many economists believe the Fed's first rate cut will occur around June of 2007, and they believe there could be two quarter-point reductions next year.”
From NBC's Huma Zaidi
Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) will make a formal announcement at noon tomorrow in Cleveland that he will run for president in 2008. According to the AP, Kucinich said he's running because he doesn't feel his party is doing enough to get the US out of Iraq.
Kucinich, who ran for president in 2004, received just 1% of the vote in both Iowa and New Hampshire. He was the last candidate to officially drop out of the race before endorsing Sen. John Kerry.
From NBC's Courtney Kube
Pentagon press secretary Eric Ruff provided a quick read-out of outgoing Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's surprise visit to Iraq over the weekend. Per Ruff, Rumsfeld did not meet with any Iraqi officials or receive any briefings while on the ground. He did, however, have dinner with about one dozen US officials in Iraq -- including top generals and Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad. In all, Rumsfeld spent about 26 hours on the ground for his final trip to Iraq.
Ruff maintains that Rumsfeld went to Iraq to speak directly to the troops and thank them for their service. He defended the Pentagon's decision not to take the news media on the trip, explaining that the secretary was "not looking for broad news coverage." Ruff said that Rumsfeld and FOX News' Sean Hannity, who accompanied the secretary, had been talking about a trip together to Iraq for several years, and that all news about the trip was supposed to be embargoed until they landed back in the US Sunday night. He could not explain how they planned to keep the several thousand troops he met with and all of the media in Iraq from reporting about the trip.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Politics abhors a vacuum, especially in the new-media universe without news cycles, and with Democrats fired up by the midterm election results and itching to put the Bush presidency behind them. So it was that 150 political reporters and 10 times that many activists jammed into a Manchester hall to hear the Democrat who is both the most widely anticipated and most inexperienced candidate in the 2008 field, assuming he decides to run. Gov. John Lynch (D) joked to the cheering crowd that the organizers of the event could have gotten the Rolling Stones to appear, but they preferred Sen. Barack Obama.
Unlike many of the others who are considering vying for president this cycle, Obama has a natural ability to fly at 30,000 feet, politically speaking. While several activists in the hall yesterday remarked that his rhetoric isn't as lofty as Bill Clinton's, as an African-American with his unique background, he personifies his own message of hope and optimism even better than Clinton did. It's at 15,000 feet -- the fleshing out of policy proposals, the endurance of incessant questions on the campaign trail -- where the ride could get rough for an inexperienced candidate.
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The Financial Times says of Bush's Iraq meetings this week, "Mr Bush would not receive formal reports during the meetings and the White House did not expect to publish a final review."
Iraq’s president said yesterday that the US plan to train Iraqi security forces has been a failure and that the recommendation to increase the number of US advisors helping the Iraqi army is a threat to the country’s sovereignty. The New York Times says the remarks “amounted to an extraordinarily harsh denunciation of a central American strategy in Iraq and challenged a major recommendation by the Iraq Study Group in Washington.”
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In Manchester yesterday, MSNBC.com's Tom Curry asked if Democrats are moving past the infatuation stage with Obama, and finds that some are. "He still has a lot more to prove to people here," said Dan McKenna, a newly elected state representative, after hearing Obama address the rapturous crowd. "The next time he comes here, people will be looking for more substance."
The huge crowd and media frenzy "tells me he's a rock star, but it's a long way to November," said Bill Shaheen, who chaired both Al Gore's New Hampshire primary campaign in 2000 and Sen. John Kerry's in 2004. Will Obama's momentum force Sen. Hillary Clinton to jump into the race soon? "I don't know if it's imminent, but she's got to make a move quick," Shaheen said. He also said he's been swapping phone messages with Clinton in recent days, but has not talked to her.
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The Los Angeles Times front-pages the "frenzied competition" among Republican presidential candidates over which of them will inherit "a fundraising and vote-getting machine built by the [Bushes] over the years into one of the most valuable assets in modern politics." More: "Adding to the drama, a sibling divide appears to be emerging" as some key members of Gov. Jeb Bush's "tight-knit inner circle have signed up to help Romney, while several of President Bush's senior strategists have gone to McCain."
The New York Daily News covers McCain’s tough speech on Iran to a pro-Israel crowd in Manhattan, Rudy Giuliani’s home turf. “Although he called war with Iran a last resort, he added, ‘There is only one thing worse than a military solution, and that, my friends, is a nuclear-armed Iran.’”
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The Wall Street Journal looks at Democrats' narrow loss last week when they tried to pass a bill that would recoup royalties from oil and gas companies who drill on federal lands, and says the party continues to face the big question of "how to pay for their initiatives and address significant fiscal problems left behind by outgoing Republicans?"
The Los Angeles Times has a lot of details on Pelosi's coming-out party as the first woman Speaker of the House. "The impending inauguration kicks off the contest over who will define Nancy Pelosi: Republicans who see her as a reckless liberal, or Pelosi herself, who wants to be seen as an American Everywoman, leading her party on a steady course to the center."
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While analysts say the GOP-run 109th Congress was the least effective in decades, retiring Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist touts its accomplishments and blames Democrats for obstructing some others in a USA Today op-ed.
Ousted GOP Sen. Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island does The Daily Show tonight.
The financial markets will be running full throttle on news events this week, per CNBC's Patti Domm. The Fed meets Tuesday on interest rates, OPEC gathers on Thursday, and a crew of economic heavyweights from the Bush Administration head to China to discuss all matters economic, including currency issues.
The head of Bush's council of economic advisors tells Bloomberg that Bush "wants to make energy independence a domestic priority next year with an eye to gathering bipartisan support in the Democratic-controlled Congress... House Speaker-elect Nancy Pelosi, a California Democrat, has pledged to make rolling back subsidies for oil companies one of her top priorities when Democrats take over Congress in January. The president also will make immigration reform a top priority, Hubbard said... On another Bush priority, shoring up the Social Security system, Hubbard said it's too early to tell if a Social Security deal is possible."
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Tomorrow brings the final runoff of the 2006 cycle in a district that could change partisan hands. Recent polls suggest that former Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D) is closing in on Republican incumbent Henry Bonilla in Texas' 23rd district, but as the Jefferson race just showed, turnout is the volatile and key X factor in any special election. The
Washington Post says the close race reflects the downside of former GOP Rep. Tom DeLay's mid-decade Texas redistricting.
In her last act on her last day of Congress, Rep. Cynthia McKinney (D), who lost in a primary run off due in part to the fallout from her striking a Capitol Hill police officer, is introducing articles of impeachment against President Bush.
Per a press release, the three articles say Bush deserves impeachment for repeatedly violating both parts of his oath of office, "I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my Ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States," and the Constitutional duty that "he shall take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed." One of the articles also names Vice President Cheney and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice as deserving impeachment.
McKinney's last act won't go anywhere -- after all, the 109th Congress is all but over -- but talk about going out with bang.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Incoming Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) just announced that they will convene a joint caucus meeting on Jan. 4 -- the first such joint meeting since Bill Clinton's impeachment. Per a release, the joint conference will give senators an opportunity to meet before the Senate session begins, in an attempt to foster a better working relationship between Democrats and Republicans.
"We won't always agree," Reid says, "but we can sit down, side by side, and forge consensus on the issues important to the American people."
Skeptics would wonder if such a joint meeting will make any difference in changing the tone in Washington. But you have to start somewhere, right?
From NBC's Ken Strickland
Republican Sen. Gordon Smith says he's tried to be a "good solider" for his party and his president, but has reached "the end of his rope" supporting the Bush Iraq policy and wants to bring the troops home whether it's "cut and run or cut and walk." Smith made his remarks in an emotional speech on the Senate floor last night to an almost empty chamber, feeling the need to "speak from my heart."
His speech covered his problems with the Iraq strategy from the initial invasion to the Iraq Study Group Report. Smith said he would not have voted for the war if he'd known the intelligence was bad, adding that he's tired of seeing 10 or more troops die per day in Iraq. He even echoed the sentiments of Winston Churchill from when the British held Iraq, quoting, "at present we are paying eight millions a year for the privilege of living on an ungrateful volcano."
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From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Congress has held off on giving themselves another raise -- at least for this year. Democrats have insisted that the scheduled congressional cost-of-living adjustment be delayed for the time being until they can hold a vote next month on raising the minimum wage.
Language just negotiated in the "continuing resolution" that will keep the government funded through February 15 delays the raise until one day later, February 16. By that time, Democrats will have presumably passed the first raise in the minimum wage in 10 years.
Members of Congress currently make $165,200. The delayed raise is for $2,800.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
The 109th Congress is winding down. Some big tax and trade measures are likely to pass by tomorrow, while some pork-laden spending bills will get foisted onto the incoming majority. President Bush has a few key meetings, sitting down this morning with the bipartisan Hill leadership to talk about Iraq, and meeting later today with the leaders of the conservative Blue Dog Democrats, who could wind up deciding the fate of some of his legislative priorities.
A handful of Senators are off to politically hotter climes. It's not unusual for Hill lawmakers with certain higher ambitions to cut out of Washington a little early on Fridays. Today is no exception -- but may mark the end of this long tradition. With the new majority party promising longer work-weeks in the next Congress, Friday hooky may become tougher to play. For starters, incoming Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has announced that the Senate will be in session for the first seven weeks of 2007, eschewing the typical two-week break before the State of the Union. And "we will have votes on Mondays and Fridays," one leadership aide tells First Read.
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Democrats are evicting Vice President Cheney from his sumptuous House-side suite, NBC's Mike Viqueira reports. But even more interesting is who he's vacating the office for. Six years ago, Republicans gave Cheney some prime real estate on the House side: a corner office just off the chamber to use on his occasional journeys to the Capitol. He has used it maybe once a week for a few hours at a time whenever Congress is in session. For years, the ornate space was occupied by the Chairman of the Ways and Means Committee -- and that's who Cheney will have to make way for now. Cheney and Rep. Charlie Rangel (D) don't exactly get along. Don't feel too bad for the Vice President, though, since as President of the Senate, he still has a place to hang his hat on that side of the Capitol.
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A new AP-Ipsos poll shows that "Americans are overwhelmingly resigned to something less than clear-cut victory in Iraq and growing numbers doubt the country will achieve a stable, democratic government no matter how the U.S. gets out." Also, "dissatisfaction with President Bush's handling of Iraq has climbed to an alltime high of 71%... Even so, Americans are not necessarily intent on getting all U.S. troops out right away, the poll indicated. The survey found strong support for a two-year timetable if that's what it took to get U.S. troops out."
In his joint press conference with British Prime Minister Tony Blair yesterday, Bush once again "cast the Iraq war as part of a global struggle between violent ideological extremists and defenders of freedom and democracy" -- but "shied away" from embracing many of the Iraq Study Group's key recommendations, per the Los Angeles Times, which also looks at the very mixed reception the report is getting from Congress
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"Lawmakers on Thursday pieced together legislation extending popular tax breaks and saving doctors from a cut in Medicare payments as Republicans prepared to cede control of Congress to the Democrats. The legislation also contained several trade-related measures, including extending normal trade status to Vietnam." The AP also says "Democrats are unhappy that the budget impasse is being dropped in their laps next year, when it promises to clutter their early agenda."
"The Republicans' likely decision today to defer Congress's unfinished budget work to January means the Democrats will be considering the measures, which are loaded with spending projects known as 'earmarks,' at the same time they have promised to consider new ethics rules to make the often-secret earmarking process more open," Bloomberg reminds us. "Republicans and congressional critics say they'll be watching closely to see how the Democrats handle this clash between their promises to root out corruption and the practical politics of pork-barrel spending."
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Bloomberg writes up GOP Gov. Mitt Romney's emergence as the alternative to McCain, noting how Romney has been courting conservatives, has avoided rookie mistakes, conveniently left the country before the Iraq Study Group report came out, and "aims to reconstitute [Bush's] coalition." He wants to attract "evangelical Christians with his support for a gay-marriage ban, and will try to lure economic conservatives with plans to overhaul health care and the tax system." He also seems to be trying to set up sharp contrasts with McCain on immigration reform -- he "stresses tough border enforcement over a new guest-worker plan" -- and possibly on taxes.
But a Boston-based gay newspaper has revived comments Romney "made during his 1994 Senate bid, in which he said the gay and lesbian community 'needs more support from the Republican Party,'" per the Boston Globe. In a 1994 interview with that paper, "Romney said it should be up to states to decide whether to allow same-sex marriage and he criticized Republican 'extremists' who imposed their positions on the party." (He also he personally opposed gay marriage.) Twelve years later, in a recent interview with the DC Examiner, Romney "accused McCain of being 'disingenuous' on same-sex marriage, because McCain says he's against [a constitutional ban of gay marriage] but believes states should decide the issue."
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The Administration is ready to make a big deal out of the November jobs report, which shows a gain of 132,000 jobs, though the unemployment rate edged up to 4.5%. Per the AP, "The increase in payrolls was stronger than the 105,000 jobs that economists were expecting. Analysts were anticipating a rise in the jobless rate, however." CNBC's Patti Domm advises that investors have been heavily focused on the jobs report, hoping to get a clear message on the economy's strength after a batch of mixed signals from recent economic data.
Presidential candidate and incoming Senate Banking chair Chris Dodd said yesterday that he wants Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson "to return from a visit to Beijing with firm progress" on persuading China’s government to revalue its currency, says the Financial Times.
The US Election Assistance Commission met yesterday to conduct its post-mortem of the first elections to be held since the full implementation of the Help America Vote Act. According to a panel that testified before the commission, the midterm elections -- which many in the election reform community expected would produce a cornucopia of problems -- went more smoothly than predicted. Deborah Markowitz, Vermont Secretary of State and the president of the National Association of Secretaries of State, said that "predictions of election day chaos... were overblown." However, data on problems encountered across the country is still being collected and analyzed.
There are some issues to watch out for looking ahead to 2008. R. Doug Lewis, executive director of the Election Center, told the commission that poll workers are expected to know and do too much, which is why his group will organize a national task force to train poll workers in the future. Elizabeth Ensley, a local elections official and director of the International Association of Clerks, Recorders, Election Officials and Treasurers, added that states may be burdened with having to replace or repair costly election equipment for which they may not have the appropriate funds.
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From NBC's Ken Strickland
Possible presidential candidate and GOP Sen. Chuck Hagel says a new strategy for Iraq "must include timeframes." And while not blatantly embracing Democrats' oft-used terms of "timetables," he clarifies that "timeframes are forcing mechanisms that prompt action and define consequences."
Hagel, a Nebraskan and Vietnam veteran, plans to deliver these comments in a speech tonight in Washington. In that speech, he'll also repeat his belief that "substantial withdrawal of American forces must begin next year... Time is not on our side." And he'll dismiss assertions that withdrawal of US military forces would guarantee that Iraq will become "a terrorist haven for al Qaeda. I do not believe it is preordained."
Hagel does take issue with some of the ISG recommendations. On the acceleration of training Iraq's military and police forces, he will say, "We cannot make the training of Iraqi troops a prerequisite for our withdrawal from Iraq." He cites more than $12 billion already spent on on training and that "the Administration has continuously provided unrealistic reports of the success we were having training Iraqi forces." He'll also caution against embedding substantially more US soldiers with Iraqi troops, saying it could make them "dangerously exposed and unsupported in combat and caught in the middle of a civil war."
Hagel is expected to decide sometime between now and early 2007 whether he'll seek the presidency (and he's been keeping his decision-making much closer to the vest than many of his Senate colleagues).
From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Incoming House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer says he didn't mean for people to take literally his comments about the House working five days a week next year. It was widely reported that Hoyer pledged to crack down and have members in Washington each day of what constitutes a normal work week for most working stiffs. The past several years of GOP rule have typically seen the House coming in early evenings Tuesday and splitting town by late afternoon Thursday.
But a great hue and cry ensued. Democrats were accused of not being "family friendly" and that members -- who apparently did not realize when they ran for office that they would be expected to come to Washington every once and a while -- would end up strangers in their own homes. This is said to be especially true of members from rural or West Coast districts.
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From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
It turns out that yesterday not only marked the release of what the Iraq Study Group co-chairs are suggesting is the only bipartisan advice President Bush is going to get on Iraq, but NBC has confirmed that it turned out to be the deadliest day of the year for US forces there, with 11 killed. That grim news adds poignancy and urgency to today's two high-profile meetings: President Bush's sitdown with British Prime Minister Tony Blair, and Jim Baker and Lee Hamilton's testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee.
Everywhere you look today in Washington will be the faces of the fallen, politically speaking: lawmakers and leaders whose influence is waning because of their support for the unpopular Iraq war. Bush and Blair, his chief international ally in the war, no doubt will discuss the Iraq Study Group's findings. These two leaders who are now in their final stretches, and whose popularity and political leverage have been undercut as the situation in Iraq has deteriorated, will hold a joint press availability later this morning.
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As Bush and Blair prepare to meet, the Financial Times says the Iraq Study Group's report "is particularly damaging to Mr Blair, as it highlights the limits of British influence on US policymaking and the fact that the UK premier is inextricably linked with the Bush administration’s battle plan."
The Wall Street Journal says, "Policy makers and the public are likely to view events in Iraq through the lens of the report -- already widely available in paperback form -- well into the coming year. A circuit of congressional hearings, talk shows and lectures featuring the panel members ensures their advice will remain in headlines... Still, a senior administration official said the White House doesn't feel bound by the report and is unlikely to implement many of its recommendations, especially regarding calls for diplomatic outreach to U.S. foes Syria and Iran."
"Except for the recommendations on Iran and Syria, the panel appeared to steer away from language that might inflame the Bush administration," says the Washington Post. "But in language and tone, the 96-page report offered an assessment of the U.S. mission in Iraq that was strikingly different from what has been heard until recently from the White House. There was no mention of the goal of establishing democracy, and no discussion of 'victory' or the centrality of Iraq in 'the war on terror' -- staples of Bush rhetoric."
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Potential presidential candidate and Sen. Barack Obama (D) tells The Hill that there will be "'a push from both sides to craft a meaningful strategy in Iraq... The question is whether the administration will be amenable.'" Obama called the report "'a realistic portrayal of what’s taking place'... Several other Democrats who have begun vying for their party’s presidential nomination placed similar weight on the White House’s next move." Republican Sens. Sam Brownback and Chuck Hagel also found something to support in the recommendations.
Presidential candidate and incoming Senate Foreign Relations chair Joe Biden says the recommendations aren't enough and pushes his own plan for Iraq in a USA Today op-ed. He promises "intensive and extensive hearings, over many weeks. We won't be wedded to any one plan or proposal. Our mission will be to shine a light on what options remain for America in Iraq and to help complete the work that this report has so valiantly begun."
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Gov. Bill Richardson (D) gives a major address on immigration reform at Georgetown today. As we wrote yesterday, he and his aides have been looking for a point of entry for him on this debate, which allows him to showcase his credentials as a border-state governor and as a Latino. Expect more speeches from Richardson between now and January, when he will decide and announce whether he's running for president or not.
Per a Richardson aide, in his speech, Richardson will call out the new Congress to act on immigration now instead of delaying; call for significant and specific increases in the legal immigration quota; call for specific increases in Border Patrol agents to seal the border; call for a verifiable ID system to track workers; specifically discuss how to engage Mexico in the process and say it can't happen without them; and call for enforcement of employer sanctions. He'll also rebut the argument that comprehensive immigration reform amounts to amnesty and will hurt American workers and the nation's economy.
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The news that Vice President Cheney's openly gay daughter Mary is pregnant and expecting a baby with her longtime partner caused dismay among some social conservatives yesterday and was applauded by the pro-gay rights Human Rights Campaign.
The New York Times says the news sparked a debate over the Administration’s opposition to gay marriage.
Gas prices seem likely to head upward, not downward, between now and Christmas.
"Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may be heading for a showdown with congressional Democrats over his warning that wage gains risk causing a jump in inflation," Bloomberg says. "Fed policy makers are threatening to raise interest rates should inflation remain elevated, even as the housing slump slows the economy. Democrats... vow to grill Bernanke over borrowing costs and wage increases that have lagged behind profit growth under [Bush's] administration." Bernanke will visit Capitol Hill in February "for his semiannual testimony on the economy."
Christine Jennings (D), who still isn't conceding her congressional race to Vern Buchanan (R), holds a press conference in Sarasota, FL today with hundreds of voters who say they experienced problems registering their votes.
The Saturday runoff for Democratic Rep. William Jefferson's seat in Louisiana may be the state's last December runoff for a congressional seat "thanks to a bill passed this year by the Louisiana state legislature," says The Hill. "The state is departing from its unpredictable nonpartisan open primary system in favor of more traditional closed primaries, allowing it to settle all of its congressional races on Election Day, just like the rest of the country. The change affects only federal races, not state and local ones."
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From the presidential pool report
White House spokesman Tony Snow noted that the Iraq Study Group report contains "no timetable" and "no recommendation for immediate withdrawal." "There is nothing in there about puling back militarily," he said. There is, though, a recommendation that the United States "engage directly with Iran and Syria," and that the United States "consider incentives and disincentives" for the two nations.
Per Snow, group co-chair Lee Hamilton (D) told Bush during the meeting, "This is the only bipartisan advice you're going to get." Every member of the group made a statement. Former Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor spoke about religion, co-chair Jim Baker about diplomacy, and former Sen. Charles Robb (D) about the military. Per Snow, "one thing that was striking" was that every member of the group spoke about the bipartisanship of the commission. Snow said the members realize there is a "sense of exhaustion at the political tone."
Snow's briefing took place in his office, which has a poster on the wall showing Uncle Sam and saying, "We're at War: Are YOU Doing All You Can?"
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
The Iraq Study Group report rings in at 96 pages containing 79 specific recommendations. Per NBC's David Gregory, the report says, among other things: "There is no magic formula to solve the problems of Iraq;" the situation there is "grave and deteriorating;" that US troops should shift from combat to training, with the goal of removing them by 2008; that the United States should threaten Iraq with loss of economic and military aid if it fails to meet benchmarks for reducing violence; and that a new diplomatic initiative should be launched with Iraq's neighbors and other key Arab states to help Iraq achieve security and reconciliation, "neither of which Iraq can achieve on its own." NBC's Andrea Mitchell notes that the group calls on President Bush or Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to personally lead that "diplomatic offensive."
Bush, who met with the group earlier this morning and commented afterward about its "very tough assessment," sits down with members of Congress to discuss the report later today.
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The Washington Post broke the news that the Iraq Study Group would "recommend to President Bush that he threaten to reduce economic and military support for Iraq's government if it fails to meet specific benchmarks intended to improve security in the country." The Post also says, "Although the study group will present its plan as a much-needed course change in Iraq, many of its own advisers concluded during its deliberations that the war is essentially already lost."
The New York Times profiles Iraq Study Group co-chair Lee Hamilton (D), who also co-chaired the September 11 commission and who is "demonstrating, as he did in Congress, that he is not in lock-step with Democratic leaders, who have mostly recommended a sharper reversal of American policy than the group will propose.”
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Rudy Giuliani has hired Sandra Pack, a top financial adviser from President Bush’s past campaign team, in addition to announcing plans to hold a presidential fundraiser on December 19 in Manhattan. The
New York Daily News on Pack's hire: “The addition marked the first time Giuliani has stepped outside his tight inner circle - made up mostly of loyalists from his City Hall days - and hired someone of national stature for a senior campaign job.”
On TODAY this morning, Al Gore called Iraq "a very bad situation" and urged Bush to try to "separate out" the personal issues: "It's not about him, it's about our country finding a way" to bring troops home. Pressed by NBC's Matt Lauer about how he'd handle the situation, Gore called it "the equivalent of a car wreck," saying that "when it's in the process of happening, you make judgments in the moment." Gore also said that he isn't hearing any presidential candidate talking enough about his pet issue of global warming, "but it's early." He said he's "not planning to run," though he hasn't completely ruled it out.
Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) told reporters yesterday that the decision to go into Iraq was rushed, that he was concerned over how much power was given to the executive branch in the process ("We didn't have to go to war on that particular day"), and that Bush should make an effort to keep communications open with families of soldiers who have died in Iraq. He added that he thinks Bush would "learn a little" by talking with them.
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Bloomberg previews the difficulties Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson is likely to face in trying to tackle Social Security reform, "To succeed, he will have to bridge the gap between two irreconcilable positions: Bush's demand for the creation of private investment accounts to fund the program, which the Democrats who will control Congress adamantly oppose, and the Democrats' requirement that any change to the federal retirement system include a tax increase, which the president rejects."
Vice President Cheney's openly gay daughter Mary is pregnant. She and her longtime partner expect the baby to arrive in late spring. "News of the pregnancy will undoubtedly reignite the debate about gay marriage. During the campaign, Mary Cheney was criticized by gay activists for not being more publicly supportive of same-sex marriage. Her father said people 'ought to be free to enter into any kind of relationship they want to' but deferred to the president's policy supporting a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriages."
The Wall Street Journal points out that House Republicans are intentionally leaving some spending bills undone, and that their "unstated goal" is to "disrupt the Democratic agenda and make it harder for the new majority to meet its promise to reinstitute 'pay-as-you-go' budget rules, under which new costs or tax cuts must be offset to protect the deficit from growing... The White House is watching with alarm, as are many Senate Republicans, who have a greater stake than the House in maintaining relations with Democrats."
House Republicans also effectively killed a plan that would award red Utah and the blue District of Columbia with two new congressional seats, the New York Times writes. However, the chances for approval could be greater when Democrats take control of Congress next year.
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Coming in January: a five-day work-week for the House, incoming Majority Leader Steny Hoyer pledged yesterday.
"Bush has invited leaders of the conservative Blue Dog and New Democrat coalitions to the White House Friday to discuss areas of 'mutual cooperation' in the words of one Democratic Congressional aide." The event is not currently on Bush's public schedule.
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The race for Florida's 13th district has been called for Republican Vern Buchanan, who appears to have won by 369 votes, but Democrat Christine Jennings "already has filed suit in a Florida circuit court seeking a revote," and "also intends to contest the result with the House Administration Committee... by the Dec. 20 deadline," Roll Call reports. "Filing an official protest with the [committee] will automatically make the Jennings/Buchanan case one of the first indicators of just how partisan the 110th Congress will be... Republicans are concerned that the incoming Democratic House leadership might not seat anyone until the [committee] finishes its review and issues a recommendation on the matter."
USA Today looks at this Saturday's runoff for Democratic Rep. William Jefferson's seat after Jefferson only got 30% of the vote in the primary. After Katrina, "weary voters in the district must decide whether to re-elect a member of Congress after the FBI found $90,000 in marked bills in his freezer."
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From NBC's Mike Viqueira and Donna Inserra
Senate Armed Services Committee chair John Warner announced earlier that the committee voted 21-0 to confirm Defense Secretary nominee Robert Gates.
Three members had not voted at that time because of another vote on the Senate floor. The official vote has now been updated to 24-0.
The full vote is likely to be held on the floor tomorrow.
From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
Remember Dick Cheney? The Vice President, rarely seen at public events these days, will preside over the Senate on Thursday during Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist's farewell speech on the Senate floor.
Special to First Read from The Hotline
Later today, John Edwards' One America Committee will announce that ex-Rep. David Bonior (D-MI) has come aboard as a senior adviser for policy and politics. But Bonior's role on a presidential effort will be far greater than simply "adviser." According to a source close to Edwards, Bonior (a former House Min. Whip under Dick Gephardt) will likely assume the role of "campaign manager" should Edwards decide to run in '08.
Bonior's long been known as someone very close to labor and his high profile post with Edwards will certainly raise the expectations of labor support for the '04 VP nominee. Bonior -- currently the chair of American Rights at Work -- served in Congress for 26 years and was Whip for 11 years. In '02, Bonior left Congress to run for MI GOV; he finished second in a 3-way Dem primary to Jennifer Granholm. Born in Detroit, Bonior, who is pro-life, graduated from the Univ. of Iowa (a convenient alma mater for WH '08) and served in the United States Air Force for four years.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
The White House seems to be trying to fill the news vacuum around the Iraq Study Group's release of its report on Wednesday. Yesterday brought the resignation of UN Ambassador John Bolton, a move that was not surprising but does represent the loss of a second top foreign policy figure for the Administration since the midterms. Earlier this morning, Bush made a quick appearance with Defense Secretary nominee Robert Gates, who has his Senate hearing today and will likely be confirmed tomorrow. And a meeting with British Prime Minister Tony Blair is now scheduled for Thursday.
As the last confirmation hearing under the GOP majority, outgoing Armed Services chair John Warner (R) will kick off Gates' session with an opening statement, followed by one from incoming chair Carl Levin (D). (Come January, Sen. John McCain will replace Warner as the committee's top Republican.) The committee may go into a closed-press session after lunch, but there should be a press availability with Warner and Levin later in the afternoon, NBC's Ken Strickland advises. The committee will likely vote on Gates tomorrow morning, after which the full Senate could take up his nomination and confirm him by tomorrow night. Three presidential candidates -- McCain and Democratic Sens. Evan Bayh and Hillary Clinton -- sit on the committee.
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Per the AP, Armed Services chair Warner will say in his opening remarks at Gates' hearing that Bush has a "'moral obligation' to U.S. troops in Iraq and their families to seek out the views of Democrats as he considers the Iraq Study Group's recommendations along with an internal assessment of U.S. options." The story also notes, "Aside from saying in hindsight that he would have done some things differently in Iraq if he had been Pentagon chief, Gates has revealed little about his thinking on new approaches to stabilizing the country."
The Financial Times says of Bush's meeting with a key Shiite leader yesterday, "Although White House officials portrayed the meeting as part of a normal process of consultation with Iraqi politicians, Mr Hakim’s visit to the White House fuelled the perception of an administration desperately seeking a new direction."
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In addition to upping the number of Midwestern candidates in the field, Republican Sen. Sam Brownback's creation of an exploratory committee yesterday also draws attention to the fact that there are no bona fide social conservatives among the GOP's current crop of frontrunners. Brownback clearly hopes to change that.
A year ago, few could have predicted that the three frontrunners for the Republican nomination would be a senator who favors embryonic stem cell research and a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, a governor who twice campaigned on defending abortion rights, and a former mayor who not only supports gay rights but lived with a gay couple -- and their pet Shih Tzu -- after the breakup of his second marriage. But as one of us writes on MSNBC.com, McCain, Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani have emerged as their party's favorites after the GOP's midterm losses. That worries some prominent conservatives, even though all three have moved to the right in the past year.
"'Right now, we're very concerned about it,' says Paul Weyrich, chairman and CEO of the conservative Free Congress Foundation. Adds Charmaine Yoest, vice president for communications at the Family Research Council, 'There is a certain lack of excitement at the moment.'"
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The Washington Times, meanwhile, says that "Democrats' growing pack of presidential hopefuls is fraught with problems. Mrs. Clinton remains one of the most polarizing political leaders in the country, with nearly half of the voters polled earlier this year saying they did not like her. Mr. Kerry, who hurt himself in the final weeks of the midterm elections when he told a joke that suggested only uneducated soldiers ended up fighting the war in Iraq, has fallen in the polls since then. And both Mr. Edwards and Mr. Obama have thin experience on their resumes."
In his latest Congress Daily column, NBC News political analyst Charlie Cook says that while Washington is abuzz about whether Obama gets into the presidential race, Clinton's stock -- per a recent Cook Political Report/RT Strategies poll -- has gone up.
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UPI reports, "When Democrats take over Congress next year, they will restructure the appropriations panels of both chambers, seeking to restore the alignment between the Senate and House subcommittees and ease a budgeting process that has failed for 12 years in a row to deliver spending bills on time."
Incoming Speaker Nancy Pelosi dealt with her potential Alcee Hastings problem, but Bloomberg highlights the likelihood that Rep. Alan Mollohan (D), "whose finances are being investigated by the Federal Bureau of Investigation," might "take over the House panel that sets the bureau's budget... His party has a long-standing practice of awarding appropriations subcommittee chairmanships to senior members, and no other Democrat has announced plans to seek the post."
The McCain-Feingold-Shays-Meehan team, plus the outgoing and incoming chairs of the Senate Governmental Reform Committee, will hold a press conference on lobbying, ethics, and earmark reform today.
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The Washington Post points out that tomorrow's scheduled vote on a bill "that would declare that fetuses feel pain and require abortion providers to offer pregnant patients anesthesia for their unborn child... may be the last on abortion-related legislation for years. That's because Democratic leaders hope to avoid confrontations over hot-button social issues that divide their caucus, and focus instead on military and pocketbook issues." House Democratic leaders "have declared tomorrow's decision 'a vote of conscience' and will not try to sway the outcome."
Incoming Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is creating a communications center not unlike the one that worked well for then-Minority Leader Harry Reid -- except that it will aim to amplify a message in addition to criticizing the Democratic majority, Roll Call says.
From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
Republican Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas, who succeeded Bob Dole in 1996, has filed papers with the FEC to form a presidential exploratory committee. Brownback said in a written satement, "There is a real need in our country to rebuild the family and renew our culture and there is a need for genuine conservatism and real compassion in the national discussion... I hope to raise the level of discussion about issues of life at home and abroad; renewed fiscal restraint, tax reform, and economic growth; and a vigorous yet compassionate and consistent foreign policy."
Brownback isn't well-known outside of Kansas and it's not clear that he can raise the substantial sum of money a competitive presidential bid will require. But some social conservatives may see him as their only reliably like-minded candidate in a GOP field whose frontrunners have imperfect conservative credentials, and he has invested a considerable amount of time in Iowa. Per his announcement, Brownback will travel to 10 states over the next month, including a stop in Cedar Rapids, IA tomorrow.
Speaking of those frontrunners, McCain is opening a campaign office in Iowa today. The move has extra significance given that he opted to skip the state when he ran for president in 2000, in part because his opposition to ethanol subsidies would've been a stumbling block. He has tempered that opposition this year, including on a recent airing of NBC's Meet the Press.
From NBC's Andrea Mitchell and Elizabeth Wilner
First Read mentioned earlier this morning that the 109th Congress seems likely to adjourn without confirming UN Ambassador John Bolton, whose recess appointment will expire next month. The White House is now announcing, not surprisingly, that Bolton plans to resign. President Bush and Bolton are scheduled to appear before cameras in the Oval Office at 3:30 pm today.
Since Bolton couldn't get confirmed by a GOP-run Senate, there seems to be zero chance he'd get confirmed once Democratic Sen. Joe Biden takes over the Foreign Relations Committee in January. Until a replacement is nominated and confirmed, Bolton's deputy Alex Wolf, a career foreign service officer, will represent the United States at the UN.
From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
The 109th Congress returns for one last week. Its role in the debate that will dominate the week, what course the Bush Administration should pursue in Iraq, will be to confirm new Defense Secretary Robert Gates and react to the bipartisan Iraq Study Group recommendations coming on Wednesday. Republican lawmakers who are spending their last week in the majority, largely because of the unpopular war, may receive the report more warmly than President Bush. who will consider it among a wide array of options. Per White House aides, that wide array also includes the "informal" options offered by outgoing Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld in his memo published on Saturday in the New York Times.
Presidential candidates are jostling already. Last week, Sen. John McCain crashed Mitt Romney's confab with his fellow Republican governors. Now Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) hasn't even completed his announcement tour -- he's stopping in South Carolina today -- and another Midwestern Democrat is taking a formal step toward a bid. Sen. Evan Bayh plan to file papers to create an exploratory committee this week (though not today, an aide advises). Bayh's case: He's a former governor of a red state with a record of helping Democrats get elected there, and a two-term member of the Senate with foreign policy experience. Like Romney, he's also the son of an unsuccessful presidential candidate.
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Bush meets with a key Shiite leader at the White House today. A New York Times news analysis says the following question will dominate Washington this week: “[A]fter three and a half years, is President Bush ready to abandon his declaration that American forces cannot begin to leave Iraq until the Iraqis demonstrate that they are capable of defending themselves?”
The San Francisco Chronicle: “Events in Washington this week... bear all the markings of a turning point in the Iraq war. But like the war itself, now 3 1/2 years long, the shift is likely to prove a slow and agonizing slide toward an inevitable retreat, rather than the decisive pullout many voters thought they might get last month when they handed Democrats control of Capitol Hill.”
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As our Boston affiliate WHDH reported on Friday, Romney is expected to announce his campaign for president early next year in Boston, though not on January 4, which his Democratic successor Deval Patrick will be sworn in as governor.
Along with Vilsack and Bayh, another Midwesterner, Republican Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas, is expected to file an exploratory committee this week, USA Today mentions.
Bayh "has already begun looking for office space in both states as well as interviewing potential staff members in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada," says the Washington Post. "Later this month Bayh will host a meeting of his top financial backers in Washington. He is also interviewing media consultants."
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DNC chair Howard Dean's 50-state strategy -- giving millions to state parties across the country, even in solidly GOP areas -- has been the subject of controversy in some Democratic circles. But there was no controversy on Saturday, when two of the Democrats' most unlikely House-seat winners in November -- Nancy Boyda of Kansas and Tim Walz of Minnesota -- thanked Dean and the party at the DNC's executive committee meeting for investing in field staff in their red districts. "Thank you from the bottom of my heart," Boyda said. Added Walz: "I am absolutely convinced this can be replicated."
For his part, Dean emphasized that winning back Congress was the easy part -- and that holding onto it will be the challenge. "It is now what we do, not what we say," he explained. "Elections are not mandates. Elections are power being loaned to politicians for two-year periods. Now it's our job to earn it back in '08." In fact, he turned to Boyda and said, "The race for 2008 will be won in 2007."
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Roll Call says "incoming Senate Republican leaders will hold an unusual two-day retreat this week to assess the Nov. 7 outcome and to begin crafting a battle plan for the newly minted minority... The White House also is expected to participate in some of the talks."
"Some Republican governors meeting here wonder whether their party can realistically hope to regain majorities in Congress, the governors mansions and state legislatures, given that the unpopular Bush administration's lease on the management of government has two more years to run," reports the Washington Times from last week's governors' conference in Miami.
Per the White House pool reporter, Jessica Simpson may have fallen victim to a wardrobe malfunction last night in the Bushes' presence at the Kennedy Center Honors. Simpson sang "9 to 5" in a tribute to honoree Dolly Parton, but ran off the stage near her last note. Nothing was shown, but the pool reporter notes that she was holding her dress a lot during the performance. The audience didn't applaud and seemed confused when Simpson ran off the stage. She came back out in tears with a full group of country singers to bow for Parton.
From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
Per a source close to Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh (D), NBC News has confirmed that he will create a presidential exploratory committee some time next week.
The AP is reporting that Bayh will make stops in Iowa and New Hampshire next week.
From NBC's Boston affiliate WHDH-TV
We know one thing for sure about outgoing Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's (R) presidential announcement plans: It won't occur on January 4. Per sources, Romney will announce early, he'll do it in Boston, but it won't be on January 4. Why not? Because that's the day that Romney's successor, Deval Patrick (D), will be inaugurated as the state's next governor.
Special to First Read from Hotline
Select members of Sen. Hillary Clinton's political team have started to interview Democrats who might one day fill senior and mid-level positions in Clinton's yet-to-be-announced presidential campaign. Those interviewed have been asked not to tell their friends or members of the press that they've been in contact with Clinton's team, and they've been cautioned against expecting a job offer because Clinton has not formally given her team the go-ahead to assemble a campaign.
A Clinton spokesman declined to comment.
Clinton's aides, when asked about Sen. Barack Obama's aggressive presidential explorations, contend that his expected entrance into the race has not influenced the time frame for Sen. Clinton to make her decision. Some Clinton donors believe that if Obama announces shortly after the turn of the year, Clinton would decide to wait a few more weeks, pushing her own announcement into late January or early February, or beyond.
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From NBC's Mike Viqueira
A Democratic House aide with knowledge of the issue confirms that Rep. Silvestre Reyes will be named the next chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. This appointment makes Reyes the only Hispanic member in the House to chair a committee.
Reyes, a former border-patrol agent and Vietnam veteran, became a possibility after incoming House Speaker Nancy Pelosi passed over two senior members of the committee -- Reps. Jane Harman and Alcee Hastings. Harman and Pelosi are said to have political differences while ethics issues complicated Hasting's chances.
From Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
A day after the New York Times said the Iraq Study Group will recommend a gradual US pullback from Iraq but set no firm timetable for withdrawal, the Washington Post today reports that the panel will recommend -- as a goal -- that all US combat forces depart Iraq by 2008, while leaving behind soldiers to train and advise Iraqi forces. NBC’s Andrea Mitchell says that the target of 2008 comes with the condition that there aren’t “unexpected developments” in Iraq, which she says is a big loophole.
The 2008 date, of course, carries huge political significance. Mitchell reports that while the Iraq Study Group couldn’t agree on a fixed date for a withdrawal, its target for accomplishing it by 2008 is partly with an eye on the political calendar. Participants in the group's discussions tell her that both Democrats and Republicans on the panel believe it must be accomplished before the 2008 primary season. Which means that Iraq could become a less important topic in the upcoming presidential election.
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The Washington Post’s scoop that the Iraq Study Group is recommending withdrawing all troops from Iraq by 2008 notes that it “would be more a conditional goal than a firm timetable… But panel members concluded that it is vital to set a target to put pressure on Iraqi leaders to do more to assume responsibility for the security of their country.” More: “The choice of early 2008 as a goal could also, intentionally or not, change the nature of the debate over the war at the height of the U.S. presidential primary season.”
Despite that Post report, a New York Times analysis notes that “the idea of a rapid American troop withdrawal is fast receding as a viable option.”
CONTINUED >>
The Des Moines Register covers Tom Vilsack’s presidential announcement yesterday.
So do the other big papers, like the Washington Post, New York Times, Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune
In its Vilsack write-up, USA Today says former governors “have occupied the White House for 26 of the past 30 years, propelled by their experience running states and the absence of voting records ripe for dissection. But in the post-9/11 era, with violence gripping Iraq, they face a special challenge in convincing voters they can keep the country safe.” The paper adds that Vilsack devoted just two paragraphs of his speech to world affairs.
CONTINUED >>
Profiling incoming Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, the Los Angeles Times writes that he was effective playing defense in the minority. “But with Democrats catapulted into control of the Senate, the former amateur boxer will assume a broader responsibility for charting alternatives to the Bush agenda… Can he cobble together a legislative record his party can be proud of? Though his low-key style masks toughness and great political dexterity, it is unclear if that will be enough.”
USA Today is the latest to write how the new Democratic-led Congress could help both Washington, DC and Utah win House seats. “Monday, the Utah Legislature will set in motion a plan that would permanently increase the size of the U.S. House of Representatives for the first time since 1911” -- to 437 members.
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The
Washington Post covers outgoing RNC chairman Ken Mehlman’s speech to GOP governors about the 2006 midterm results, in which he “acknowledged voter anger about the Iraq war and a spate of GOP corruption scandals, but he pointed to a broader culprit: the erosion of the core conservative principles of small government and personal responsibility.”
CNBC's Patti Domm notes that the Dow finished November 121 points shy of the record it set November 17. Up 14% for the year, the Dow scored a 1.2% gain for the month, its fifth monthly advance in a row but its worst performance since July.
The Washington Post profiles new Treasury undersecretary Robert Steel, who is in charge of domestic finance. At the same time, however, “he moonlights as the unpaid chairman of the Board of Trustees of Duke University, a major recipient of federal funds and one of the country's most richly endowed colleges. Experts say it is rare for a senior executive branch official … to hold a significant position outside government.” The Post adds, though, that government and university ethics officials “approved the combination as long as Steel did nothing that had a ‘direct and predictable effect’ on Duke's finances, a stipulation that he accepted.”
In Louisiana’s run off between embattled incumbent Rep. William Jefferson (D) -- he of the $90,000 in his freezer fame -- and challenger Karen Carter (D), Jefferson is up with a TV ad declaring: "I have never taken a bribe from anyone. This is an desperate attempt by an ambitious young woman [Carter], who won't debate me on her codependent relationship with the insurance industry.”
