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Molinaro Beats Back Manning ... Maybe

With only 248 votes separating the two men, it will come down to counting absentees and probably a recount.

But Assemblyman Patrick Manning is looking at the end of his time in Albany as he is on the wrong end of election results, losing to Marc Molinaro of Tivoli. One year ago, Manning was a candidate for governor, but after gaining zero ground against the top challengers at the time, he dropped out of the race. Oh, and there was that little problem with him and the "other woman."

Manning decided to run for re-election, but the locals in the 103rd District decided to back Molinaro, a former resident of the City of Yonkers, for the Assembly. With their help and backing, Molinaro appears to have gotten himself a slim victory ... but a victory nonetheless.

That is unless the 200 or so absentee ballots and the usual state recount change it.

Doesn't look good for Team Manning.

The Obsession With Michael Boxley Continues

Speaking of conspiracies, Michael Boxley now works for former State GOP chairman Bill Powers.

As for our Yonkers Citizen, Anthony Iovine, confirming what my sources have told me about State Senate Majority staffers being the source of damaging fiction about more than one Republican, I will let everyone come to their own conclusion.

The following comment is supported by evidence I have known about for a long time, supported by sources I know and trust -- including being supported by court testimony and additional research.

I'm afraid the rapes by Michael Boxley will not go away -- and this story must finally be laid bare for the people of New York State to see.

First- I think it's evil to imply that Manning's chief of staff was staying in his hotel room the night she was raped. The entire hotel was booked with Assemblymen, Senators and staffers that night, as it was every night during session. That is a blatant attempt to smear the reputation of a rape victim. It was started by Shelly Silvers' staff in order to justify letting Boxley slide the first time, but it's nice to see that Molinaro's supporters have jumped on his band wagon. You are disgusting.

As for Boxley's guilt, his second victim just won a large settlement from the state, paid for with tax payer dollars, because they had been put on notice about Boxley's behavior by the first victim. That's the reason they were found liable.

Boxley put drugs in the second victim's drink at a bar, just as he had the first. He injured the second victim in exactly the same manner and location as the first. He said the same things to both victims afterwards. The two women didn't know each other or even work in the building at the same time. There is absolutely no question in anyone's mind about Boxley's guilt except a few scumbags who are trying to use the terror, pain and humiliation inflicted on two innocent victims for political gain.

That is evil and sick, and decent people on either side of this race shouldn't stand for it.

Nice group of supporters you have there, Marcus.

And I happen to agree with you about bringing up the Brawley matter in reference to Pagones. It was wrong and it shouldn't be condoned either.

By the way, I called Phil Alvea. There was no poll done by RACC. Just another of Team Molinaro's lies. He's starting to look pathological.

Patrick Manning broke "the rule" and spoke up when his staffer was raped.  Manning and his staffer have endured years of wretched lies about each of them since the night she was raped.  The truth is that the volume of State lawmakers and staff who know the reality -- yet remain silent -- is ultimately the most shameful aspect of this episode.

The covering up is as shameful.

The rule in Albany is to be silent.  The punishment in the past has been to shun a fellow lawmaker, to turn your back on him or her, to exile the elected official from Albany.  It amounts to a political blacklist and can extend into your professional career.

Lies have been told about Manning, tall tales, and I'm sure he has done some fibbing of his own.  However, the reality is that his staffer was raped and Albany's establishment was unresponsive.  Those who looked the other way are responsible for the second rape, in my opinion, and a lawsuit against the State of New York was won on those grounds.

Are State Senator Stephen Saland's vengeful designs on Patrick Manning worth this obsession with Michael Boxley?

Finally, Boxley ended up in the realm of Bill Powers -- and that sadly says more about New York politics than anything else.

Mid-Hudson Valley Challengers Gain Ground

As if the Republican political establishment didn't have enough to worry about with the the races of Tom Dadey and Peter Santiago, there are two other Assembly races in the Hudson Valley threatening to change that region's political landscape.

Don't count on races in the 103rd and 99th Assembly being sleepy.

Neither Assemblymen Willis Stephens nor Patrick Manning will be getting free rides this summer.  They are two incumbents catching flack from ready challengers who are so far being taken for granted.

Manning versus Molinaro

Of course, that depends on how one views six-term Assemblyman Patrick Manning -- who lobbied against his own peers in the State Legislature to help defeat the Runaway Spending Amendment (Prop. 1) last year and whose pro-life conservative Republican gubernatorial bid this year roused differences of opinion.

Manning is billing himself as more of the "outsider" this year -- and he is.

He is so far outside the barn that he might lose.

The Dutchess County native is facing a well-funded and establishment-core candidacy of Tivoli Mayor Marc Molinaro.  Molinaro is drawing support from liberal Republicans and intending to counter Manning's pro-life agenda with a pro-choice stand mirroring the political agenda of Assemblyman Joel Miller and State Senator Stephen Saland.

So far, it's looked awfully dire for Manning but Molinaro has clung to a rather ghoulish bunch of political patrons.  With friends like Miller and Saland, who needs political enemies?  It's still put Manning in a tough place, one his enemies say he created all by himself.

In other words, the political machines are backing Molinaro and Pat Manning might as well be running his first race.  Serious questions have been raised about Manning being able to muster the support and the people to survive petitions, for example.  It's been indicated by multiple sources that Manning's petition effort might be lagging, facing rumored resistance by voters or simply suffering from an incumbency burn-out.  Whatever the reasons, Manning needs help or he could find himself off the ballot in July.

Still, Manning also resists the label of being a "going along to get along" incumbent and that helps him.  True populists will win this year in New York and Manning won't be a shrinking violet on the campaign trail.

Molinaro, a popular force in his village and beyond, has the full party establishment behind him but the "party" is not the people.

Stephens versus Ball

In the 99th State Assembly District, the incumbent still won't acknowledge that he has a Republican primary opponent -- and it's this kind of arrogance that is fueling the opposition to incumbent Republican Assemblyman Willis Stephens.

His opponent Greg Ball has been campaigning across Putnam, lower Dutchess and upper Westchester counties for the better part of a year now.  People know he is in the race, despite attempts by Team Stephens to prompt some tasteless questions about Ball's military record.

As expected, the party machines have pulled tightly behind the incumbent but this hasn't kept Greg Ball from getting his message out.

Stephens has a voting record that has never turned on conservatives but his family's political lineage is one of the longest running in the state.  His primary problem is that Putnam County, the heart and majority of the 99th district, has experienced the most rapid population growth in New York.  That makes for a lot of newcomers who have no idea who Willis Stephens is, handing Ball a ripe opportunity to turn the new vote his direction.

For example, there is a candidate's debate next Thursday night (7:00 pm) in Mahopac between Ball and the Democrat, Ken Harper, but Stephens wont bother showing up in the same room with his challengers.  It is early for a candidate's debate (don't tell that to the statewide candidates) but Stephens should be there.

Another example is being mailed out to voters this week by Ball's campaign, an expose on a statement about constituents made last year by Stephens.

Ball has ably capitalized on the anti-incumbency and anti-establishment sentiments.

It's almost cartoonish, close to hyperbole but Stephens said it.

The mailer has been sent to every Prime Republican Household in the 99th district, and will arrive in mailboxes by Thursday.

People will know Greg Ball is running, though he should be careful not to wrap too much hyperbole around what should otherwise be a stable campaign.

The Journal News blog, Politics on the Hudson, characterized the political hay as old news and another example of political high-tech horrors.

Politics on the Hudson also made a good point on the advantages and drawbacks of too immediate a message being sent out to voters.

...Thanks to the Internet, mailers can be shared with a click of the mouse -- especially one taking your opponent to task for a digital faux pas. Greg Ball, who has been after Assemblyman Will Stephens for more than a year, is reminding Republican primary voters in the 99th A.D. of Stephens' slip last summer. In an e-mail meant for a staff member but inadvertently posted on an Internet chat group, Stephens referred to the group's members and their Internet opinions as "watching the idiots pontificate."

Stephens sent out a too-little, too-late apology, but it's another example of Ball catching the incumbent sleeping.

It sure doesn't make Willis Stephens look like a populist.

There are no polls on this race but word of mouth is rabid for the conservative Republican challenger.

Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco is not expected to abandon Stephens but statewide Conservatives, particularly through Mike Long and Conservative and Republican U.S. Senate candidate John Spencer, will put significant support behind Greg Ball's candidacy.

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Pat Manning has already received the endorsements of State GOP chair Stephen Minarik and Tedisco, except State Conservative chair Mike Long will apparently take no action for the conservative Republican. Molinaro won the endorsements of Conservatives in both Columbia and Dutchess counties, thereby earning himself a Wilson-Pakula -- and it is unlikely Long will allow Manning a "fair fight" with the Tivoli mayor.

Also, Tedisco could likely stay out of expressing any support for either candidate during the actual primary -- but count on this race flipping a few ways before it settles.  If Manning doesn't get out of petitions alive, many will be writing his political obituary.