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Thursday, June 29, 2006

Gillibrand, Inc. -- No Courtesies

I thought my analysis of True Blue 20's worthwhile observations on the infamous Sweeney poll was balanced, certainly considerate of that liberal blog's math.

Don't expect me to bend over and drink the Clinton Koolaid.

"The case News Copy make demonstrates how (at every level) Republicans bury their heads in the sand. Maybe they should adopt a new mascot: Ostridge."

I don't know whick Democrats run 20TrueBlue but no one is calling anyone an ostrich without losing a few feathers.

"Surely if Dutchess and Columbia counties had been correctly polled Sweeney would have had below 50% and there is no way to spin that as a good thing for an incumbent."

That's nonsense.

Admittedly, Congressman John Sweeney's numbers wouldn't have been as pretty with a corrected sample from the Mid-Hudson Valley counties -- but he's still beating Gillibrand.

If they want to take out the calculator and prove me wrong, go right ahead.  If they want me to take out my own calculator and crunch Sweeney's poll for the Congressman, I can assure you that Ms. Gillibrand will be hiding in the trench by the time I'm done.

"I can tell you right now why the poll was skewed: to make Sweeney look stronger than he is in reality."

I didn't dispute that logic.

"We're supposed to assume it was a "fluke" or a "political accident" that the poll - whoopsie - under polled just the two most Democratic Counties in the district by 10%? A part of the district that comprises 25% of it's actual voters?"

We're supposed to assume that Kirsten and John are both failing to wear their party labels to woo a partisan vote?

Gillibrand desperately needs Republicans to vote for her.

Sweeney's under the spell of his consultants that he needs Democrats.

It doesn't say much for the party loyalty of either of them -- except Sweeney's winning.  Gillibrand's hiding that she is a liberal.  Sweeney's hiding that he's a conservative -- but at the end of the day the incumbent should win if remembers the Republican Party.

If Gillibrand is herself, her liberal-David-Boies-Clintonesque-Albany-machine-Democrat-self, she doesn't have a chance.

News Copy was more than accommodating it giving the "skewing" of Sweeney's poll a fair hearing.

Now let's see the Democrats bare their own poll numbers.

Sweeney Poll: Difficult Math

Look at all the trouble I started, according to the Democrat-happy blog 20TrueBlue and its numerical analysis of John Sweeney's Congressional district.

Was Sweeney's 2-1 poll skewed?

Not anywhere near as much as I thought.  He's still ahead, firmly ahead but there is a knawing question about Patrick Manning's Assembly district that doesn't make sense.

This Democrat's blog noted that the poll neglected about ten percent of the vote in Dutchess and Columbia counties, precisely the sections represented by Manning.

"Columbia and Dutchess county total 25% of the voters yet only 16% of those polled. The poll questioned just over 400 people. 128 of them were in Saratoga County which was supposed to be a reflection of the fact that 32% of the voters were there. Yet 25% of the poll didn't go to Dutchess and Columbia counties."

The Saratoga numbers are accurate, which is important, but the Mid-Hudson Valley numbers are off.

I'm confused how Team Sweeney could crunch the numbers this way, especially given what they have even told me have been serious concerns about the vote in Columbia and Dutchess.  They obviously haven't been that concerned or perhaps it was a genuine oversight by someone interfacing with Zogby (since most doubt that Zogby made the mistake).

Where the poll is flawed is also, coincidentally, where two Dutchess Assembly candidates are competing in a Republican primary -- and where Sweeney's political operation has been privately taking both sides.

Tivoli Mayor Marc Molinaro is the challenger against six-term incumbent Republican Assemblyman Patrick Manning in the 103rd Assembly District.

News Copy has learned from multiple sources that the lynchpin here has always been State Senator Stephen Saland, who apparently has influence over Dutchess County's Independence Party -- and Sweeney couldn't afford to lose support of that party in this county.

Saland, a social liberal who has never liked the ambitious Manning, has been political buddies with Molinaro, who ironically is probably far more ambitious than Manning but liberal enough on social views to Saland's liking.

Saland just plain doesn't like Manning, so the tall one was probably just plain in the way.

As True Blue noted, Dutchess and Columbia are pressing matters for another reason.

Columbia and Dutchess Counties are where the 2004 Democratic Candidate had the most votes. Columbia voted for Kelley at 35%, Dutchess at 37%. Just 26% of Washington County voters choose Doris Kelley.

Against Doris Kelley, the numbers in those two counties must be a concern for Sweeney.

Columbia had 31,326 voters, Dutchess had 47,372 voters and Washington had 25,223 voters.

Number of people polled in each of those places?

Columbia - 18 Dutchess - 45 Washington - 44

That's out of 400 people polled, so it is obvious that little weight or attention was placed in measuring the true numbers in Dutchess or Columbia counties.

Why?

Sweeney might have wanted a "feel good" poll to spin to the national pundits, like Robert Novak, for example, who wrote this about the commissioned poll in Human Events.

"Fears that the 2006 elections will prove a total wipeout for Republicans in New York were somewhat relieved with a new poll showing high approval for Rep. John Sweeney in his upstate New York district.

Sweeney's seat has been marked by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee as a sure stepping-stone on the road to a House majority. However, new polls show Sweeney ahead of his challenger, attorney Kirsten Gillibrand."

I suspect another reason for the skew in these two Mid-Hudson counties but this theory is entirely without formal confirmation from any campaign.  It's supported by some interesting facts though.

Sweeney is worried about a growing Democratic presence in Columbia and Dutchess.  I further suspect his staff chose to back the more liberal Molinaro over Manning, specifically over the issue of abortion.

The poll as done only lends justification to abandoning the pro-life candidate, Manning, and maintaining support for the more liberal Molinaro.

Why?

To make Senator Saland and his ally Assemblyman Joel Miller happy.  Both are pro-abortion advocates.  Both want Manning destroyed.  Both probably drew a line in the sand for Congressman John Sweeney's political operation; Back Molinaro over Manning or you don't get the Independence Party line.

Far-fetched?

If Sweeney was in trouble in this part of the district with Republicans -- and a poll pointed to a soft pro-life stand by Sweeney as the reason -- an accurate poll in these two counties would immediately lend credence to him more openly supporting Patrick Manning.

Such an accurate poll of Columbia and Dutchess counties might have also demonstrated that Sweeney needs Manning running with him in November.  You can be assured that there are people within these political wrecking crews that don't want it leaked out that John Sweeney might benefit from Pat Manning being the Republican candidate in the 103rd Assembly District.

But it's likely more politically expedient than that, and simpler.

The Independence Party tends to back the incumbents, as long as they demonstrate a firm edge in the polls.  They like winners -- and an accurate poll might show that Democratic challenger Kirsten Gillibrand is stronger in these two counties than Sweeney wants known.  It still doesn't mean that he is losing this race but he could take no chances.

As for Manning or Molinaro, I sincerely hope that neither relies on Sweeney's poll in this portion of his district for any accurate gauge of each other's chances.

It's off, about ten percent off.

The reason why is still a mystery and maybe even a polling accident.

The bottom line is that it is curious that the most blatant inaccuracy in Sweeney's poll is in the two counties where his staff has been the most disingenuous -- and also where the Democrat in the last election nearly broke 40 percent.

It's no big deal, as long as Team Sweeney isn't asleep.

Sweeney's staff never did call me back on my poll question.  Time will tell why the poll was "skewed" in Dutchess and Columbia counties or if it was just a political accident.  I'm sure this analysis is going to leave some red-faced and/or a few others with a lot of explaining to do -- or maybe not.

Call it a fluke.

Just don't ask for my opinion on the undecided vote in this district.

Friday, June 16, 2006

Liberal Poster Girl Meets Endangered Challenger

John Sweeney is a lot of things but one thing he isn't is an "endangered incumbent" as Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand's campaign has panted on occasion.

Gillibrand flew to California today to attend a fundraiser for House Minority Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, which in a twisted way further reminds voters in New York that Ms. Gillibrand is a liberal Democrat.

Elizabeth Benjamin of the Albany Times Union blog, Capitol Confidential, gathered some statements from Gillibrand's campaign manager Bill Hyers on Gillibrand's liberal jaunt.

"I’m sure we’ll get money out of it," Hyers said. "There’s no way some of these donors won’t give directly to candidates."

Pelosi will be 2006's poster girl for liberal bad behavior, so News Copy safely predicts every Republican in New York dropping her name whenever they criticize a Democrat.

The NRCC naturally took out the political sledgehammer and repeatedly reminded everyone that Gillibrand was practicing her two favorite hobbies; Mixing with liberal Democrats and following the money.

"There she goes again," National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Ed Patru said today. "Big-city trial lawyer Kirsten Gillibrand's reaction to a poll showing her with dismal grassroots support in the 20th District is to fly cross-country to bask in the backing of another big-city liberal."

The Pelosi message was used again in lower Westchester County by Congresswoman Nita Lowey's Republican challenger Rich Hoffman.

This time the liberal poster girl imagery was used to protest Pelosi's and Lowey's vote against House Resolution 861, a measure that declares the U.S. continued intentions to win the Global War on Terror and that this nation is committed to completing the mission of creating a sovereign, free and secure Iraq.

The NRCC is pitching Sweeney's 2-1 edge in a recent poll, except the Congressman's campaign hasn't called back News Copy with any numbers crunched on the percentage breakdown of the voters in the district compared to where respondents were called.

It is possible 30 percent of the Congressional District is in Saratoga County, right?

That clarification is the difference between John Sweeney making a slam dunk where the backboard shatters -- and him missing a free throw.

I have to admit that the Democrats are making it easier for the Republicans to upstage them on certain issues.  Pelosi is radioactive.

"The one thing that 20th District voters do know about Kirsten Gillibrand is that the first vote she would cast in Congress would be to make San Francisco liberal Nancy Pelosi Speaker of the House," Patru added. "Kirsten Gillibrand is cozying up to the same Nancy Pelosi who just yesterday released an agenda that calls for higher taxes and is today on the floor of the House urging surrender in the War on Terror."

So darn verbose though (and I'm admittedly TOO verbose).

Let's try that again...

"Gillibrand, a classic liberal if there ever was one, would help make San Francisco's Nancy Pelosi House Speaker.  John Sweeney's liberal opponent shows she's only beholden to liberal special interest, expensive and influential special interests."

Why else would she have flown out to California?

It's not like there aren't more moderate and palatable Democrats to choose from in Washington.

Just call Gillibrand an endangered challenger, without a mind of her own.

Wednesday, June 14, 2006

Sweeney Poll: The Whole Nine Yards

Elizabeth Benjamin of the Albany Times Union blog, Capitol Confidential, reported on obtaining the entire 20th Congressional District race poll, the one done by Zogby and paid for by Saratoga County GOP chair Jasper Nolan.

As Nolan noted last week, U.S. Rep. John Sweeney, R-Clifton Park, leads his main Democratic challenger Kirsten Gillibrand 51.2 percent to 26.5 percent.

Just over 32 percent of respondents said they had a favorable opinion of Sweeney, while 30.1 percent professed their opinion to be somewhat favorable, while 11.6 percent were unfamiliar with him.

Gillibrand’s very favorable rating was 7.8 percent and her favorable number was 14.2 percent. Most people - 68.6 percent - didn’t know her.

Only 2.1 percent said they had a very unfavorable view of her, while 5.5 percent had a somewhat negative view.

John Sweeney could be spun as a rock star with those numbers but there are some holes.  There were a bit too many undecided (21.5 percent) for this political observer's tastes -- and this comes to a 26.3 unfavorable rating against an unknown opponent.

In a letter to O’Brien, Nolan said he and his committee are “with good reason, encouraged by the results and focused on the task at hand,” adding:

“We always knew that the 20th Congressional District, and in particular Saratoga County, were Sweeney Country.”

There is also nothing appropriate about polling Sweeney's opponent as Kristen Rutnik Gillibrand -- unless they intend to play some hardball "name game" politics later on.

Obvious from the numbers is how little known Gillibrand remains, lending credence to the speculation that Democrats will put forth a sneak attack (they better hurry up) that leaves Sweeney vulnerable once Gillibrand's name i.d. rises.

With 21.5 percent undecided, anything is possible.

That 21.5 percent could be the Iraq War, George Bush, George Pataki or the "economy, stupid."

Liz Benjamin did an in-depth analysis of this poll -- which News Copy hopes to obtain so that we can do our own in-depth review.

Melissa Carlson, Sweeney’s deputy chief of staff, helpfully e-mailed over the poll crosstabs, which show 41 percent of Democrats have a very favorable or somewhat favorable veiw of Sweeney, as do 55 percent of independents and 79 percent of Republicans.

This measure indicates a Republican district's total reluctance to vote for a liberal Democrat, which should stick even more if Sweeney reminds everyone that his opponent is a liberal Democrat and that he is a conservative Republican.  So far, Mr. Sweeney's rocket scientist consultants have been absentminded about using the word R-E-P-U-B-L-I-C-A-N in the congressman's literature.

Wimps.

The one glaring flaw in the poll would be that Zogby polled over 30 percent of prospective voters in Saratoga County, which is Sweeney country, but no clarification was offered about whether this was an accurate representation of the district's vote.

A skewed poll is a skewed poll but is it?

Sweeney's people should have clarified the percentage breakdown of the district's vote with the poll, which might show 30 percent come out of Saratoga County -- so it might not be skewed at all.

51.2 percent to 26.5 percent.

If Gillibrand gobbled up all the undecided vote (which I have seen happen in these kind of races), an additional 21.5 percent still leaves her below 50 percent.

My two cents?  What's happening here, I'd bet, is that Democrats are afraid to wave the liberal banner too zealously in a conservative Republican district.  They believe that Ms. Gillibrand can just sneak in without being tarred and feathered by the Team Sweeney.

That's a mistake -- but she will try to sneak in on Sweeney's deficits. The greatest deficit might end up being his reluctance to use the word REPUBLICAN in his literature.

Count on Gillibrand being described in mailings and media ads as a liberal, enough times to drag down her numbers more, BUT also count on Gillibrand gaining much of that undecided vote as she becomes more visible throughout the district.

I still believe Sweeney's downfall would be to distance himself from Bush and the Republican Party, thereby handing his opponent the opportunity to gain ground over the summer months.

As one of Jasper Nolan's closest friends acknowledged with me this past weekend, this is a Republican district where Congressman Sweeney should be proud to promote that he is a Republican.

Friday, May 26, 2006

Campaign 2006: Anyone Listening?

Communication_2Pre-convention communication could be critical for candidates, with News Copy predicting some cliffhangers at the State GOP Convention.

William Weld is attemting a full court press out in the public eye, coming to Westchester to pose in front of a gas pump -- and propose the elimination of the gas tax.

The Associated Press reported that Weld will propose a permanent elimination of the entire State tax, not just the elimination of that tax on on the price over $2 gallon that the State Legislature agreed upon -- and Governor George Pataki finally signed.

"A sales tax on gas is bad fiscal policy because it's a tax on a tax," Weld said. "The price of gas already has the excise tax on it ... it's no way to run a railroad. The state tax should be rolled back altogether."

Not every county is signing off on that plan, so Weld better be ready for a backlash.

Weld also called for $2 billion more for the environment, prompting a math lesson from John Faso.

Faso said Weld's pledge of $2 billion more for the environment and his previous promise to eliminate the state income tax on the first $70,000 of income would create a $6 billion hole in the budget.

Faso said he supports current environmental programs, but "The focus of my attention is that we have to cut taxes in New York state. We have to reform the Medicaid system and make sure that we have a cap on school property taxes. To me, those are the most important issues (but) I support environmental programs."

Faso doesn't support eliminating the gasoline tax and wants to use the revenue for a "pay-as-you-go" fund to rebuild highway, bridges and transportation systems.

Faso submitted to a podcast interview by Ben Smith of The New York Daily News for that newspaper's blog, The Daily Politics.

Weld is circulating a four-minute biographical video on his campaign website that is really too much and little substance for this late in the game.  Faso's interview with Smith was a bit daring, maybe too much of a walk on the politically correct side, but his argument for the Second Avenue Subway demonstrates that he is a lot more in touch with New York City than anyone credits.

Maggie Haberman of The New York Post reported on Weld going after Faso over his votes on rape, another vague attempt to corner the former Assembly Minority Leader as a right-wing extremist he isn't.

It is true that part of the Republican Party's weakness with the women's vote has been a tendency not to be awake on the issues of sexual assault and sexual abuse, issues that lawmakers like Democrat Amy Paulin and Republican Attorney General candidate Jeanine Pirro have been addressing for years.  Point being, such legislation shouldn't be delayed or blocked by partisan or political bickering at all.

It won't suit many Conservatives but count on Faso to sensibly find the middle ground on many issues, as soon as he slams the barn door shut on Weld.  News Copy figures that the more times Weld labels his opponent as a pro-life conservative Republican, the easier it will be for Faso to win the primary.

But Faso's challenge is shifting enough delegates at the State GOP Convention away from Weld to deny him 25 percent -- a long shot.

News Copy is hearing from sketchy sources that a detente will be attempted to prevent Faso operatives from helping KT McFarland get her 25 percent (she only needs six percent more)..  The identified culprit is national pollster Frank Luntz, something we had heard over a month ago, who has somehow convinced Albany's rocket scientists that multiple Republican primares are good.

Fred Dicker of The New York Post noted that 59 percent of Republicans in New York are undecided on a challenger to Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton.

Getting the word out about Republican candidates has to be a group effort.

What are all those district leaders and local leaders and county leaders and regional vice chairs in the Republican Party doing with their time?

The Democrats might possibly be beaten in the air, with paid and free media, and probably in the post office -- with direct mail -- but this run-on sentence is going nowhere without active grass-roots on the ground.

Couldn't help but notice Kirsten Gillibrand's first piece of literature on Capitol Confidential, coming on the heels of her opponent Congressman John Sweeney's Republican-muted mailer.

Elizabeth Benjamin points out here it's spun, no different than how Sweeney's piece had omissions cut by political surgeons.

It is time for a change but New Yorkers are sick of being spun (and this is coming from a man with a big shovel).

It will be about communication in 2006, little else, and the kind of retail campaigning New York used to be famous for.

Wednesday, February 22, 2006

Manhattan's Kirsten Gillibrand From Upstate

Gillibrand_1Carpetbaggers come in all shapes and sizes.

This moving van doesn't discriminate.

Republican Congressman John Sweeney's challenger, Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand, has done everything but wear a Hudson, New York t-shirt.

The ever buoyant and happy-faced liberal Democrat claims to hail from the Hudson Valley but she has a Yorkville problem.

Yorkville is a section of Manhattan.

That's not Manhattan, New York.

That's Manhattan in New York City, about 2-3 hours from Columbia County.

As late as June 4, 2004, Ms. Gillibrand gave her legal address as 1755 York Avenue, Apt. 6C in New York City.

That's 1755 York Avenue, Apt. 6C., New York, New York 10128, according to a receipt for a $250.00 donation to New York State Democratic Committee.

Gillibrand2004gif

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