Look at all the trouble I started, according to the Democrat-happy blog 20TrueBlue and its numerical analysis of John Sweeney's Congressional district.
Was Sweeney's 2-1 poll skewed?
Not anywhere near as much as I thought. He's still ahead, firmly ahead but there is a knawing question about Patrick Manning's Assembly district that doesn't make sense.
This Democrat's blog noted that the poll neglected about ten percent of the vote in Dutchess and Columbia counties, precisely the sections represented by Manning.
"Columbia and Dutchess county total 25% of the voters yet only 16% of those polled. The poll questioned just over 400 people. 128 of them were in Saratoga County which was supposed to be a reflection of the fact that 32% of the voters were there. Yet 25% of the poll didn't go to Dutchess and Columbia counties."
The Saratoga numbers are accurate, which is important, but the Mid-Hudson Valley numbers are off.
I'm confused how Team Sweeney could crunch the numbers this way, especially given what they have even told me have been serious concerns about the vote in Columbia and Dutchess. They obviously haven't been that concerned or perhaps it was a genuine oversight by someone interfacing with Zogby (since most doubt that Zogby made the mistake).
Where the poll is flawed is also, coincidentally, where two Dutchess Assembly candidates are competing in a Republican primary -- and where Sweeney's political operation has been privately taking both sides.
Tivoli Mayor Marc Molinaro is the challenger against six-term incumbent Republican Assemblyman Patrick Manning in the 103rd Assembly District.
News Copy has learned from multiple sources that the lynchpin here has always been State Senator Stephen Saland, who apparently has influence over Dutchess County's Independence Party -- and Sweeney couldn't afford to lose support of that party in this county.
Saland, a social liberal who has never liked the ambitious Manning, has been political buddies with Molinaro, who ironically is probably far more ambitious than Manning but liberal enough on social views to Saland's liking.
Saland just plain doesn't like Manning, so the tall one was probably just plain in the way.
As True Blue noted, Dutchess and Columbia are pressing matters for another reason.
Columbia and Dutchess Counties are where the 2004 Democratic Candidate had the most votes. Columbia voted for Kelley at 35%, Dutchess at 37%. Just 26% of Washington County voters choose Doris Kelley.
Against Doris Kelley, the numbers in those two counties must be a concern for Sweeney.
Columbia had 31,326 voters, Dutchess had 47,372 voters and Washington had 25,223 voters.
Number of people polled in each of those places?
Columbia - 18 Dutchess - 45 Washington - 44
That's out of 400 people polled, so it is obvious that little weight or attention was placed in measuring the true numbers in Dutchess or Columbia counties.
Why?
Sweeney might have wanted a "feel good" poll to spin to the national pundits, like Robert Novak, for example, who wrote this about the commissioned poll in Human Events.
"Fears that the 2006 elections will prove a total wipeout for Republicans in New York were somewhat relieved with a new poll showing high approval for Rep. John Sweeney in his upstate New York district.
Sweeney's seat has been marked by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee as a sure stepping-stone on the road to a House majority. However, new polls show Sweeney ahead of his challenger, attorney Kirsten Gillibrand."
I suspect another reason for the skew in these two Mid-Hudson counties but this theory is entirely without formal confirmation from any campaign. It's supported by some interesting facts though.
Sweeney is worried about a growing Democratic presence in Columbia and Dutchess. I further suspect his staff chose to back the more liberal Molinaro over Manning, specifically over the issue of abortion.
The poll as done only lends justification to abandoning the pro-life candidate, Manning, and maintaining support for the more liberal Molinaro.
Why?
To make Senator Saland and his ally Assemblyman Joel Miller happy. Both are pro-abortion advocates. Both want Manning destroyed. Both probably drew a line in the sand for Congressman John Sweeney's political operation; Back Molinaro over Manning or you don't get the Independence Party line.
Far-fetched?
If Sweeney was in trouble in this part of the district with Republicans -- and a poll pointed to a soft pro-life stand by Sweeney as the reason -- an accurate poll in these two counties would immediately lend credence to him more openly supporting Patrick Manning.
Such an accurate poll of Columbia and Dutchess counties might have also demonstrated that Sweeney needs Manning running with him in November. You can be assured that there are people within these political wrecking crews that don't want it leaked out that John Sweeney might benefit from Pat Manning being the Republican candidate in the 103rd Assembly District.
But it's likely more politically expedient than that, and simpler.
The Independence Party tends to back the incumbents, as long as they demonstrate a firm edge in the polls. They like winners -- and an accurate poll might show that Democratic challenger Kirsten Gillibrand is stronger in these two counties than Sweeney wants known. It still doesn't mean that he is losing this race but he could take no chances.
As for Manning or Molinaro, I sincerely hope that neither relies on Sweeney's poll in this portion of his district for any accurate gauge of each other's chances.
It's off, about ten percent off.
The reason why is still a mystery and maybe even a polling accident.
The bottom line is that it is curious that the most blatant inaccuracy in Sweeney's poll is in the two counties where his staff has been the most disingenuous -- and also where the Democrat in the last election nearly broke 40 percent.
It's no big deal, as long as Team Sweeney isn't asleep.
Sweeney's staff never did call me back on my poll question. Time will tell why the poll was "skewed" in Dutchess and Columbia counties or if it was just a political accident. I'm sure this analysis is going to leave some red-faced and/or a few others with a lot of explaining to do -- or maybe not.
Call it a fluke.
Just don't ask for my opinion on the undecided vote in this district.
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