Sabre Rattling

First and foremost, I would just like to take a minute to praise the sabres medical staff for the great job they did with the Zednik incident yesterday. Yesterday’s game really took on a surreal feel to it and I think even if the Sabres lost and Zednik was ok, I doubt we’d have any complaints from most fans. Everyone here at Sabre Rattling’s thoughts and prayers are with the Zednik family and we hope you have a quick and speedy recovery.

 Now, on to more mundane (and much less important) issue(s) of the day. Namely, Brian Campbell. Should he stay or should he go? His name is undoubtedly on the wishlist of most contending teams at the deadline as well as several teams entering the offseason. For the Sabres, however, the Campbell situation should transcend simple dollars and sense. How the Sabres handle Campbell is going to really shape the direction of this team over the next couple of years, regardless of this years outcome in the standings and playoffs.

Imagine you are a NHL player. You are a heart and soul guy, have made millions already and you have one passion, and thats to win a cup. Now, you have two offers on the table, one from a team who hasn’t had a ton of recent success, but has been a consistent playoff team, lets say the Minnesota Wild, and the other is the Buffalo Sabres. The terms are similar enough, which city are you going to choose? Obviously, there are going to be a lot of factors in your decision, but one of concerns you are going to have is the front office’s commitment to winning the cup, your #1 goal. We’ve already seen this happen with Mike Grier, where he decided to go to San Jose over Buffalo even though Buffalo had offered more money. A big reason wasn’t the weather and it wasn’t the small town, it was the fact he felt that San Jose offered him a better chance to win the cup over the course of his contract. And while it seemed like a minor loss at the time, a player like Mike Grier would have made Buffalo a much better team last year.

Now, back to the Campbell situation. The first question I have is, what is Campbell’s market value. Looking at last year’s puck moving D-men, you had five big contracts.

• Kimmo Timonen, 6 years, 38 million
• Brian Rafalski, 5 years, 30 million.
• Mathieu Schneider, 2 years, 11.25 million
• Tom Poti, 4 years, 14 million
• Tom Preissing, 4 years, 11 million.

The stats tell us that Campbell is a much better d-man than either Preissing or Poti, Campbell logs more ice time, takes fewer penalties, and puts up more points. Rafalski has been a 40-50 point defensemen and has contributed quite a bit on the PP. Schneider also has been a consistent offensive defensemen throughout his career, his point range is also in the 40’s-50’s. Timonen is also fits in that same criteria. Now, considering the salary cap shouldn’t rise all that much this year (early projections have it listed at a 3-5 million increase), teams shouldn’t be spending a whole lot more on free agents this year than they did last year. However, given that Campbell is five years younger than Rafalski and almost 10 years younger than Schneider, there will be more interest from teams who are maybe aren’t quite contending yet, but want to add a puck moving d-man long term in his prime. So, given than, I fully expect Campbell to, if he hit the market, receive several offers in the 6.0-6.75 million per season and anywhere from 6-8 years in length.

So all this brings us to the question: What to do with Campbell? This has really been a struggle for me all season, I’ve sat squarely on both sides of the fence. On one hand you have the bushel of sweet sweet rental overpayment you could get for an asset like Campbell at the deadline and on the other you have the prospect of losing an offensive d-man who is a big part of your team and is just hitting his stride. However, when you view this Campbell situation in light of last year’s mind boggling gaffs with both Briere and Drury, the answer becomes clear. As Teddy KGB said at the end of rounders, you “Pay that man his money”, bad eastern european accent optional (*warning, link has swearing, probably NSFW*).   If I’m Regier, I’d call up his agent and offer him a 6 year, 33 million dollar deal to get conversations going again. Sure, 5.5 is more than most people, myself included, would have dreamed of paying him before the season, the fact is, I don’t think this team (and fanbase) can take another big ticket name leaving town.

IF you let Campbell leave, either by trade or by just letting him walk, you are in essence putting Miller one foot out the door as well next summer. What would his motivation be to stay in Buffalo, regardless of the money that will be thrown at him by the front office? He knows he can get a similar contract anywhere and he would have seen a president trophy winning team stripped down to a marginal playoff team in less than two seasons. What indications would he see that things are going to get any better if he commits the prime of his career to the Sabres if Campbell is shown the door? There would have to be some serious free agent shopping or huge deals to prove to Miller (and any other prospective free agents) that Buffalo is a team who wants to win a cup.

Campbell is, in my mind, the defining contract of the next few seasons. Signing Campbell long term is a sign that the front office will not simply be the Oakland A’s of the NHL, developing players into their prime before sending them off into the greener pastures of UFA-dom while enjoying moderate success, but rather a team who is serious about winning and will pay to put together a core than could some day win a championship. And while signing him would send a positive message to the team as well as the players in the NHL about Buffalo, letting him move on would send an equally bad one. That this team isn’t willing to pay the cost for good players unless they are up against a wall (see the Thomas Vanek contract) and are contented with enough success to pay the electric bills at HSBC while the sitting on the team like a piece of prime real estate, letting it gain value.

So you are probably wondering. Its been nearly two months since the last post here at Sabre Rattling, what could awaken the humble bloggers, what news story could awaken us from our slumber? Nothing really, just a general update on the state of the Sabres. Its been interesting few months. We’ve seen the winter classic, a 10 game winless streak, injuries galore, and now a the Sabres are on the edge of the playoffs. With the trade deadline looming, Buffalo sits between buying and selling not to mention the entire Campbell situation.

Given the Drury and Briere debacles, a lot of players will be looking at the the handling of this situation, not the least of which is Ryan Miller, who is eligible for Unrestricted Free Agency after next season. Campbell is going to want a big contract, and if he hits the market, he will get it. The best comparable I can think of is Brian Rafalski, now of the red wings. He got a 5 year, 30 million deal from Detroit. Thats the kind of deal Campbell is going to want. According to Bob McKenzie , he is looking for a 6 year deal in this price range. Whether or not the Sabres will pay it is quite another story. Personally, I think a 6 year, 33 million deal would be fair compromise. More than Buffalo wants to pay, but not an overpayment, and Campbell takes a slight paycut to stay in Buffalo.

As far as the playoffs go, a quick glance at the standings  shows that Buffalo is 2 points back of Boston with a huge match up coming up tonight. The Sabres are also three points back of the Rangers with four games in hand. However, with 29 games left, its all academic at this point. Being in a playoff spot now doesn’t matter. Being there when the season ends is quite another. Ruff’s message to the troops should be “don’t look at the standings, lets win 20 more games, 97 points will be enough regardless of how the other teams do”  This is the a key stretch from Buffalo, 10 games in 17 days leading up to the deadline, seven of them at home. Its going to determine Buffalo’s course of action at the deadline. While its doubtful Darcy will be making any short term investments (aka rentals), however, there could be deals to be made. If Regier decides to move Campbell he will undoubtedly get a huge return. I just doubt it will happen barring a complete tank over the next 10 games.

Overall, 53 games in and its been a roller coaster ride. The Sabres have slowly started putting in consistent efforts and they appear they are learning how to win. However, this is still a young team who have been very streaky. A downturn at this point could very well the final nail in the coffin. As predicted here, it could take as many as 40-50 games for this team to iron out the kinks, though, only time will tell if this team has finally turned the corner. If Connolly and Afinogenov come back and can contribute, it could be a the bump that pushes the Sabres into the playoffs. So hold on tight kids, its far from over. Keep checking in, we’ll try to kick start this blog back alive.

Because that’s what we’re supposed to do when confronted with piracy (and other types of stateless violence against our citizenry).  With the news this evening of the Sabres officially ending their 29 year affiliation with the Rochester Americans of the AHL,the rumor that exists is that they’ll move that affiliation to the Portland Pirates… that’s Maine, not Oregon.    Of course, both Portland and the Ducks may have something to say about that.

The issues have been covered in the Rochester D&C fairly well, which I tried to quickly summarize yesterday at FanHouse here. Believe me,  I wouldn’t have been surprised if you missed it.  All good things, though, eventually come to an end, and I’m sure there’s a whole cadre of Sabres fans that will find a way to blame Larry Quinn for this, as if blame needed to be thrown around.  It seems to me that Steve Donner’s money problems running the Amerks refused to be subsidized by the Sabres any longer and they felt the break the Amerks were given in affiliation fees would have covered the signing of the veteran players that Donner felt needed to be signed.

Well, if that’s the case, then let Florida do that if they’re willing.  We’ll see if that financially and competency challenged organization can do for the Amerks what the Sabres were unwilling to do.  I, frankly, don’t care.  I know there’s a ton of history with the two organizations but at the same time the Sabres must feel that their developmental budget could not bear the extra cost of subsidizing their AHL affiliate’s payroll without some kind of return on equity, i.e. ownership of some form or another.

If nothing else, maybe the lack of such a close AHL affiliate will stop the endless shuttling of their kids up and down the Thruway to save a few thousand dollars in salary.  That, in and of itself, would be a welcome change.

Ta,

This morning’s Ice Sheet is the kind of blogarrhea that I used to produce for this space.  My disgust with the current state of the game reached new heights when I finally watched the Hartnell hit on Andrew Alberts.  No, I won’t link it, find it yourself.

The post itself is a long-winded indictment of us, the fans, for trying to make sense of these kinds of violence as opposed to rejecting them outright.  Our society is sick with it.  It’s a defense mechanism brought on by shame for at one point cheering or identifying with the person committing the act.  I don’t want hockey to be ballet on skates, but I don’t see way out of the current situation until we demand something better.

Why do you think I’m so excited by Ron Paul’s rise in the race for the White House.  It’s a testament that that sea-change is, in fact, happening, maybe not in time to save the ‘country’ or the ‘dollar’ or whatever institution you hold sacred, but the foundation for something better is being built.  A growing segment of the population is rejecting outright the inherently violent system of social order that we’ve built here.  It gives me hope during the most depressing of days.   Now, if these people will just become hockey fans and help us clean up the NHL then I can sleep a lot better at night.  ;)
Ta,

As if y’all couldn’t tell, my interest in the sport of hockey is hitting a wall right now. A 6 month barrage of things both petty and pretty-damned-important have sapped my desire to bloviate about the only professional sport I spend any amount of my precious little time on this planet paying any attention to.
I know that there are a great number of people who look forward to what is said in this space (and it seems that I write one of these posts at least semi-annually) and, believe me, I feel that pressure every day that I don’t find something to comment on. But, the truth is that there are times when I’d rather sit around and listen to other people talk than do so myself. For those that know me personally, I’m sure y’all are spitting out your morning coffee over that statement.

So, that said, fear not, this is not a kiss-off post, though it’s been touch-and-go for a couple of weeks now, but one to clarify that while updates will be fewer than in the past, I’ll still do so at a pace that I’m comfortable with. To be honest, the Sabres and the NHL are taking a back seat to the evolving sea-change in the political landscape that’s occuring right now with the candidacy of Ron Paul, while at the same time the foundations of the capital structure of the world is shifting in a way that we haven’t experienced in nearly 100 years. We are living in interesting times, in the Chinese sense of that phrase; a moment that I’ve been waiting for for nearly a decade.

So, if you’ll forgive me, the time I would normally spend obsessing over the Sabres is being spent trying to shore up my family’s future. At the end of all of that, I just don’t have the same energy to commit to the NHL that makes for a great hockey blog even if all I focus on is my favorite team. As my involvement at this level wains, it’s gratifying to know that Sabres blogdom is healthy and robust. Y’all know who you are and you deserve the eyeballs.

Okay, mea culpa over.

No one can argue that a lot of things have changed since my last post where the Sabres were definitely searching for the bottom. Kevin’s post at Bfloblog from yesterday morning paraphrasing Brad Riter is a good one, and may point to why the team has seemed to turn that corner towards respectability. Now, if they can just stay healthy enough to claw back into a playoff spot we’ll all breathe a little easier.

I’m with H.B. about Tallinder’s injury. I knew he was hurt the moment Kovalev hit him. It really ticked me off that no one ran him or took Komisarek to the woodshed at some point last night, especially considering the refs were allowing him to run around and punch people in the face all night.

I’ll tell you what, if we’d lost that game because of Komi’s antics I would have shut this blog down and cancelled the Center Ice package. It’s hard enough to justify my time watching hockey right now, but if the NHL doesn’t change the obviously one-sided refereeing and back-sliding to pre-lockout nonsense then I’m going to gravitate even farther away from the game.

I refused to watch last Friday’s game for exactly that reason. The Ottawa game has me so mad that I decided that wiping multiple times in Zul’Aman was preferable to watching the Sabres skate 5 on 7. That was the first time in 5 years I refused to watch a Sabres game when it was available.

BTW, while RJ and Roby were certainly right about the effort expended by both teams in last night’s game, I didn’t think it was a particularly good or exciting one. Both teams were sloppy with the puck, the ice was horrible and the officiating worse. It was one bear-hug away from being Greco-Roman wrestling on skates. But, Jocelyn Thibault was excellent, the Sabres breakouts superior to the Habs as well as their neutral zone positioning and that, in the end was the difference.

Points of Interest:

• Clarke MacArthur looks great with Hecht and Pominville. I really like that line. They seem to have great awareness of where the others are and all three are so sound at playing the system that you never feel like they are going to get counter-attacked because of a risky play (even though it happens).
• Nolan Pratt was the perfect pickup to tide this team over while Kalinin is out. He’s really helped Paetsch settle down and he’s been solid on the PK as well.
• Last night was Derek Roy’s best game since the games started counting in the standings. More of that Derek. Less whining. Grow up and play. Let the rest take care of itself. You play in Buffalo and will always get shafted by the refs, don’t give them excuse to do so.
• It was mentioned on the broadcast last night, but I noticed it the minute he returned, Tim Connolly is the most dangerous guy on the ice on the PP and every PK’er in the league knows it. Even Ottawa’s Vermette and Kelly won’t challenge him directly, b/c they know he’ll burn them like a propane torch. That, my friends, is high praise…. b/c those guys don’t respect anyone.
• Peters took 5 shifts last night that didn’t completely suck!
• Ruff’s patience with Max is starting to pay dividends. It was a great move by Lindy to have Max out in the final minute on Friday night, rewarding him with key ice time. Max delivered with the play to set up Paille’s empty netter.
• Goose must challenge Komisarek the next time these two teams play. First, run him into the glass then just jump him and start beating him like a red-headed step-child. It doesn’t matter if he gets thrown out, if the refs are going to let him eat babies on home ice, then we need to take matters into our own hands… damn the outcome.

Ta,