Analysis
Nathula: Trading in uncertainty
by A C Sinha
Official Chinese map showing Sikkim merged in to India,
with Indian foreign secretary Shyam Sharan’s marker
pen encircling the area in question at a press conference
|
The increased bonhomie between India and China
in recent years has opened up the possibility of building
newer avenues of cooperation between the two countries. There
are reports that after a gap of four decades, the Nathula
route (located on the Tibet border with Sikkim) will be opened
for trade between India and China in late September, which
could give a boost to transnational economic ties in the region.
However, an assessment of the ground situation reveals that
the implementation of the proposal has not proceeded apace
with public pronouncements.
Prior to 1962, Nathula (la = pass) was open
as a trade route between India and China. Initially an offshoot
of the ancient Silk Road, the pass was brought into use by
the British in 1904 as part of an attempt to connect Calcutta
to Lhasa. The short border war between India and China in
1962, however, led to the closure of the pass and subsequent
limitations on trade between the two nations.
Until very recently, relations between
India and China had been friction-laden. The signing of the
“Memorandum on expanding border trade” on 23 June
2003, however, marked a change in the way the two states dealt
with each other. Traders from both China and Sikkim supported
their governments’ decision to establish a trade mart
at Nathula by September 2005. The trade center was to have
banking services, warehouses, customs offices, and other facilities
essential for cross border trade. The proposal also included
a plan to link the pass to the commercial metropolis of Siliguri,
a major center in India’s commercial network, via a
four-lane road.
Despite the recent easing of relations
between New Delhi and Beijing and the ensuing agreement to
reopen the trade route, there are no visible results in Nathula.
There is hardly any activity on the snow bound ridge currently
under the charge of armed forces from the two states. There
are no settlements, no markets, no banking facilities, no
customs offices, no civil police, nor any form of commercial
activity. Even the narrow roads, built for armed vehicles,
have been closed to tourists because of landslides.
Although Indian strategists have pointed
out the economic benefits of reopening the pass, to both India
and China, the complexities lie in politics. Since China has
made the figurative first move, acknowledging that Sikkim
is part of India, the pressure remains on the Indian government
to show a change. For India, the opening is more symbolic
than practical. In early August 2005, the Indian government
announced the need to postpone the creation of the crossborder
market, citing national security concerns as a key issue.
Nonetheless, the Indian government has said, the route will
be opened on 30th September.
There is also an additional complexity
vis-à-vis the tribal communities in the region. The
land around the proposed trade mart is within the zone of
Bhotia territory, where an order of a former Namgyal ruler
forbids outsiders (i.e. those not of the tribe) from buying
land and settling as permanent residents. Thus, a sizeable
section of the Sikkimese people will not be able to take advantage
of this mercantile opportunity. Naturally, the Bhotia interpret
Delhi’s reluctance to open the pass as unwillingness
to help Sikkim’s economy. The Sikkim state government
has also had difficulty finding a way out of this impasse.
Interestingly enough, while strategists
outside Sikkim see the opening of Nathula as an opportunity
to bring a massive boost to regional trade, the Sikkimese
establishment simply expects a continuation, albeit on a larger
scale, of the traditional trade of fresh fruits, vegetables,
and wool via coolies and mules. Historically, it is the Bhotia
who have been the main operators and traders on this and other
Himalayan passes. With the Bhotia benefiting from the trade
of local products, it is expected that they would have more
goodwill towards the state government.
Despite the Indian government’s
dilly-dallying in opening Nathula, the Gangtok government
of Chief Minister Pawan Kumar Chamling clearly means business.
It has established the ‘Nathula Trade Co-ordination
Committee’ presided by the state chief secretary, that
also includes key bureaucrats, representatives of the army,
the Border Roads Organisation, the Bharat Sanchar Nigam (telecommunications),
and officials from a wide variety of departments, from roads
to health. After a preliminary study, it was proposed to shift
the site of the mart from earlier suggested Tsomgo in upper
Sikkim down to Sherathang, an army base. The Indian army has
reportedly agreed to surrender Sherathang once an alternative
site is provided for it. While the Government of Sikkim is
willing to provide access to the Chinese traders up to Rinchengang,
north of Gangtok on the way to Nathula, the Chinese have sought
access right up to Rangpo on the West Bengal-Sikkim border.
Furthermore, the Chamling government is keen to open a Lhasa-Gangtok
bus service via Nathula.
In regional terms, opening the trade
route to Kakarbhitta in Nepal, Paro in Bhutan, and Rangpur
and Rajshahi in Bangladesh would create much needed new opportunities
for transnational trade, thereby strengthening the economy
of the region as a whole. However, since no infrastructure
has been erected in Nathula nor its approach, the likelihood
of extensive trade in an assortment of commodities, involving
a variety of stakeholders, does not appear possible in the
existing situation. Achieving this vision requires a progressive
leadership willing to rise above the prevailing pettiness
and distrust that has marked the politics of Sikkim. Only
then will it become possible to create and maintain transnational
trade.
|