A mid the credit crunch crisis and bleak talk of a slide into global recession, coupled with the news that house prices have suffered their worst decline in over a decade, the extravagance and excess of high fashion might have been expected to provide a little light relief.

But the mood of the autumn/winter 2008 collections mirrored the economic gloom all too closely. Black is everywhere, and shapes are decidedly buttoned-up and puritanical. If you thought Carla Bruni in sombre dark grey up to the neck was bad, wait until August, when – even though Britain may still be experiencing sunny weather – the new season's clothes will be in the shops. The colourful displays of floral prints currently to be found on department store racks will be replaced by severe black dresses, sharply tailored suits and other clothes emphasising sobriety and practicality.

The return to black started in February, when the new fashion collections were unveiled before the world's press. From the models at the YSL show, who matched their black clothes with black lipstick and pudding-bowl wigs, to Lanvin's endless variations on cocktail dresses, again all in black, there was barely a bright spot to be found.

The fashion commentator Tim Blanks called it "severe opulence", while Marigay McKee of Harrods raved about Prada's "intellectual" little black dress.

Leatrice Eiseman, executive director of the Pantone Color Institute, has the job of predicting for the fashion and interior design industries what colours will be popular in the coming seasons. She has noticed "a general rule" that when people become concerned about the state of the world, they tend to become more practical in their tastes. "There is a return to the more basic colours and black – as the most basic of all, the most practical of all and the one that, from a psychological point of view, still empowers you – makes you feel you are still looking fashionable and sophisticated," she said. "It is a serious time in our history, and what the colour represents is a deep seriousness."

Harriet Quick, fashion features editor of Vogue, agreed that there are parallels. "We are moving from a period of flamboyance and excess to austerity in fashion. It's a reaction to the £2,000 handbag, the £500 shoes you can't walk in. We are at a tipping point, and a move to a more sober style. But, she said, black clothes don't equal dull clothes. "It's not dreary, but sombre. There are stand-out investment pieces, like a YSL coat."

Certainly, fashionable women won't actually stop buying clothes, she said. But "women are going to think longer and harder about what they buy, and there's a greater awareness of how one's spending".

So had the designers, working on their collections nearly six months ago, tapped into global economics? Susannah Frankel, fashion editor of The Independent, said: "Generally, in a recession, the look is far from frilly and colourful. It was the same in the interwar period and during the early Nineties."

"Designers do have this kind of sixth sense, if you will, not only because they want to be fashion predictors, but also because in some cases they are playing safe," agreed Eiseman.

In fact, fashion can claim to see the bad news coming before the rest of us. Coco Chanel designed the iconic "little black dress" – described as the Ford motor car of fashion because of its affordability and style – three years before the 1929 crash.

For this autumn, the designer Christian Lacroix, famed for his love of bright colours, has featured black heavily, saying the use of the colour and the "laser geometry of shapes" may have been "linked unconsciously to recession". And his fellow designer Narciso Rodriguez remarked: "When times get tough, people want things that are real and lasting. Black is certainly reflective of that. It's what you can bank on."

And banking on a style, after all, is what the fashion industry cares about the most.

Recession chic

17th century: In a portrait by Velázquez, Philip IV of Spain is shown circa 1656 wearing a plain black tunic; during his reign, Spain suffered a decline as a European superpower

18th century: Marie Antoinette's infamously frivolous costumes were replaced, when France's bankruptcy and revolution came, by austere black (although this did not save her)

1920-30s: Just a few short years after Coco Chanel created the "little black dress" came the Great Crash in 1929

1947: A plain black (yet shapely) cocktail dress by Christian Dior signified the move from postwar austerity to fashion liberation

1950-60s: Beatniks wore black polo-necks, but Sixties flower power soon took over

1970s: At the end of the decade, the second oil crisis dominated the headlines, as did black-clad punks

1980s: Economic gloom was mirrored by the black clothes and make-up of the Goth movement

2008: After years of fashion editors promoting bright colours, the global recession is marked by the return of black as a major fashion trend

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