A just released report has taken a first look at using NASA’s monster booster — the Ares V — to support visionary space science missions. Ares 1 and Ares 5 are booster elements of the space agency’s Constellation system of Moon, Mars and beyond hardware.
The interim report, Science Opportunities Enabled by NASA’s Constellation System, is a product of the National Research Council’s Space Studies Board, written by a blue ribbon panel of experts.
The report notes that the first flight of Ares V is not expected until 2018 at the earliest. Lunar missions would begin in 2019 or 2020, and for at least the first several years of flights, the mega-booster would be tied up tossing hardware to the Moon to build a lunar outpost. Therefore, Ares V could not be available to support science missions until the early or mid-2020s at the earliest.
At this point, the report explains, NASA doesn’t have reliable price tag info on the Ares V.
But given its development, the report spotlights a number of vision missions that might benefit from the opportunities enabled by the Constellation system, and are therefore deserving of future study, such as the Modern Universe Space Telescope, a Stellar Imager, an Interstellar Probe mission, Solar Polar Imager, Neptune Orbiter with Probes, and a Titan Explorer.
The committee believes that Ares V offers the greatest potential for an impact on science. The big launcher would be capable of hurling large-diameter, large-volume, heavy spacecraft into orbit, seemingly removing the physical — although not the financial — constraints on missions that would benefit from being able to fly large, heavy payloads to their destinations.
But the report stresses that using the Ares V could have a potentially dramatic effect on the price tags of these missions. That is, incorporating the use of an expensive launch vehicle could increase costs. But it could also possibly balance increased costs by simplifying mission design - for instance, by cutting out the requirement for on-orbit assembly or eliminating complicated deployment mechanisms.
The committee found that the greatly increased payload lift capacity promised by Ares V could lead to more costly science payloads.
Also, it was determined that the Ares 1 capabilities are not sufficiently distinct from those of Atlas V and Delta IV to enable different types or a higher quality of space science missions.
Noted in the report is that by adding a heavy-lift launch vehicle option could lead to larger science missions and even higher costs. There is a direct relationship, the report adds, between the size of a spacecraft and its cost. Expensive space science programs will place “a great strain” on the space science budget, which has been essentially flat for several years and is already under strain from an ambitious slate of flight missions, the report states.
By the way, one little financial footnote in the report caught my eye: The James Webb Space Telescope, now planned as a 2013 liftoff on an Ariane booster, is pegged as a $4.5 billion mission.
That’s something to reflect on too.