Diseases & Symptoms
This section documents viruses and bacteria that are most likely to
pose critical threats to our species. These dangers could arise in
one of two basic forms.
First there is the threat that a naturally
occurring pathogen could inflict a devastating pandemic.
Evolution never sleeps. Pathogens are constantly altering
their structure and characteristics. Should
an evolutionary change increase lethality
and/or infectivity to a sufficient degree, then that pathogen becomes
a candidate as a species-killer. All it would then take is the right
combination of environmental conditions before a global epidemic was
ignited.
But evolution isn't the only danger - there is perhaps an even
greater threat from the creationists. In this case the "creationists"
are the biological scientists.
Pathogens can arise biological research via
enhancement and
weaponization of an already-existing pathogen. Or,
completely novel microorganisms can be created through
genetic engineering. Such super-organisms, finely designed and
tailored, are perhaps the ultimate weapon.
This
topic, while also documented here, is covered more thoroughly under
the
Science And Technology category.
There are countless pathogenic microorganisms in the environment. But only a relative
few pose well-documented dangers. The best known of
these include
smallpox,
anthrax,
influenza,
bubonic plague
and
tularemia.
The first four of these are proven mass killers,
responsible for the deaths of billions of human beings throughout history.
They combine the twin attributes of
contagion and lethality required for a disease to become a true mass plague.
In addition there are the more novel recently-discovered pathogens. These include such
diseases as
ebola and marburg fever.
These are of interest primarily due to
their novelty and high mortality rates, although there is relatively little
scientific knowledge of them compared to the other pathogens. It is
believed that specific circumstances are required for these viruses to spread.
Exactly what these circumstances are though
is presently largely unknown. However these viruses represent a true wildcard.
As environmental degradation and population growth continues, they
might, like HIV, reach a point of critical mass and unleash themselves on
the world population. It is all a question of time and probability.
Speaking of
HIV,
why is it not on the list? HIV is terribly lethal,
but is not very contagious. Compared to the diseases above,
it currently isn't a candidate for mass plague. This is not to diminish
the terrible cost of AIDS;
over
20 million people have died in this pandemic.
Yet this is a small number relative to the billions
who have perished from
smallpox or influenza.
Even so, there is a an ongoing threat of viral
"improvements".
Although there is no known weaponization work around HIV (its non-contagious aspect
makes it uninteresting from the military perspective),
it is conceivable that a natural mutation could someday increase
its ability to spread. What would happen if HIV developed
the capability to spread by air? In evolutionary terms, such a capability would be
quickly selected for, leading to a mass plague of virtually guaranteed lethality.
How likely is such a scenario? Probably not very, but no one really
knows. Could a clandestine lab could effect such a change?
Again, no one knows.
However, with the genetic mechanisms for contagion and lethality being increasingly
well understood, there is little to stop rogue regimes or even
individuals from applying this knowledge.
In addition to obvious candidates such as HIV, any pathogen which currently
afflicts humanity could, by either natural or artificial means, be enhanced.
Thus viruses that cause diseases such as whooping cough, malaria, or
measles, might one day pose a much more critical threat to
mankind. Even if this is not the result of weaponization work, such
a mutation could arise from natural evolution.
The success of such a mutation would
be facilitated by ecological situations where populations have increased and
become concentrated, where environments have been disrupted, and where poverty
and pollution have led to
a systemic decline in health standards and immune systems.
Such situations are perfect laboratories for viral mutation and
spread. And such situations, of course, already
exist in much of the world.
For instance, most new forms
of influenza come from China. Because of its
concentrated population and high-intensity food production involving
pigs and poultry (which can harbor the influenza virus), China is
a gigantic petri dish for viral recombination and mutation. Every year
new varieties of influenza are naturally generated in China
and then make their way outwards to the world. What would happen
if one of these varieties expressed a particularly lethal mutation? That happened once before,
in the 1918 Spanish Flu, which killed 30 million people.
And influenza is not the only threat. The recent emergence of a new respiratory
virus (SARS - Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome) in Southern China reinforces the
fact that this ecology can generate new epidemics at any time.
What would
be the effect of a truly lethal epidemic in our crowded and interconnected world?
Each year the world simply rolls the dice; the onset of a new plague
is a matter of time.
Then there are the pathogens that target agricultural crops.
Many viruses, bacteria and fungi are quite specific to the crops
they attack and quite devastating. Although
not a direct threat to humans, such plant diseases could wreck havoc with the food supply.
The early American biological warfare effort was particularly
focused on such agricultural diseases.
More recently, some of these agents have reportedly attracted the interest of rogue
weaponization programs. A virus which wipes out rice or corn crops around
the world could conceivably be just as deadly as one which attacks humans
directly. From the terrorist standpoint, such agricultural attacks have
the advantage of somewhat greater stealth and deniability. Agricultural
fields are easily susceptible to attack, plus plants suffer
mortality from epidemics all the time. Who is to say if
a mass die-off of all wheat in the United States and Canada is
the result of a naturally-occurring mutation or a result of
clandestine genetic engineering and biowarfare?
Finally there is the threat of the complete unknown: a brand-new pathogen
that appears out of nowhere, a terribly lethal "Andromeda Strain". It is
difficult to quantify the immediacy of this threat, but
it is not just the stuff of science fiction.
Consider: HIV certainly came out of nowhere, as did
ebola. And looking back in history, all diseases have a beginning
and thus the element of total surprise. For instance, bubonic plague was quite
novel and devastating when it hit Europe in the 14th century (eventually
killing a third of the population). People were both lost and aghast at
this brand-new scourge. Similarly, smallpox was unknown to humanity until it
made its jump into Homo sapiens at the time of the Egyptian pharaohs.
The effect there was apocalyptic, as it was for the
Native Americans in the 16th and 17th centuries. History, in fact,
is full of such "Andromeda Strains".
The following links describe all these pathogens in greater detail.
Some are of scientific nature, while others are for the general reader.
One warning: some of these materials can be gruesome. The
medical effects of these diseases, and their
toll on societies, does not make for pleasant reading.
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