Newsweek pegs Obama’s lead over McCain at an incredible (and perhaps not credible) fifteen points, 51-36.

Josh Patashnik at TNR unpacks the Democrats’ latest cave in on civil liberties. In a nutshell: The telecoms get immunity, the Bush administration makes sure that the program never sees the light of day, but FISA maintains exclusivity over intelligence wiretaps — a provision Bush is sure to ignore, citing his dictatorial prerogatives in wartime.

Another classic move in line with my recent magazine piece, “The Senate Caves!”

UPDATE: In a dispiriting reality-check, Obama joins the spelunkers…

It is not all that I would want. But given the legitimate threats we face, providing effective intelligence collection tools with appropriate safeguards is too important to delay. So I support the compromise, but do so with a firm pledge that as President, I will carefully monitor the program, review the report by the Inspectors General, and work with the Congress to take any additional steps I deem necessary to protect the lives – and the liberty – of the American people.

What’s more interesting than the what of Barack Obama’s first general election ad — a very clean, affecting bio piece — is the where.

The campaign’s ad buy covers the no-duh swing-states — Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

But also gives us a good sense of where they’re testing the electoral waters. And the list is surprisingly long (with electoral votes noted):

Alaska (3)
Colorado (9)
Georgia (15)
Indiana (11)
Montana (3)
North Carolina (15)
North Dakota (3)
Virginia (13)

It gives you a sense of how powerful this campaign’s strategy for redefining the status quo has been. That’s 72 electoral votes that they’re daring John McCain to defend — the electoral college equivalent of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire combined.

Every campaign makes feints at states where they’ve got no chance. But given the current fundamentals of this race and the mood of the country I can’t pick a state off that list to laugh at. This is an aggressive first move from a campaign that’s got it’s act together.

The ad itself:

Obama has made an obvious choice to opt out of public financing in the general election. McCain will call it a flip-flop. Watch Obama describe his “Declaration of Independence” from a “broken system.”

How is threatening Florida with offshore drilling good politics for the GOP? I really don’t get it.

I think most people know, on a gut level, that something non-supply/demand-related is going on with the oil markets. And that the answer to sky-high prices at the pump is not putting oil platforms off Daytona Beach.

John McCain’s support for this is especially dissonant in light of his calls to get serious about global warming. It’s very hard to carry water for Big Oil and credibly stake out your maverick cred on a platform of moving away from a fossil fuel economy.

To the electoral college perspective, I don’t see how this is anything but a gift to Obama, helping him make up with some of the center-left voters alienated by the Democrats wacko nominating process.

UPDATE: Cue poll showing Obama with a four point lead in the Sunshine State. Really, this is astoundingly stupid on McCain’s part. It’s terrible policy. And he can’t win without Florida. Obama’s got a number of different ways to win, and the money to tests the waters in longshot states from Mississippi to Georgia to Arizona. McCain has no similar flexibility. If he can’t hold Florida, he’s finished.

Six years ago journalist Jeff Sharlet went undercover in the underground evangelical organization known as the “The Family.” The group consists of Congressmen, members of the executive branch and many other D.C. powerbrokers. Unlike Pat Robertson and other widely known Christian conservatives, the Family operates outside of the public eye — but that by no means limits their influence or power. Sharlet’s book The Family: The Secret Fundamentalism at the Heart of American Power exposes the real men behind the growing evangelical movement in America. Click here for his recent Q&A with Rolling Stone.

He was only 58.

Supreme Court has upheld the rights of terror war detainees to appeal their imprisonment in American civilian courts:

Money quote:

“The laws and Constitution are designed to survive, and remain in force, in extraordinary times.”