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Jim's predictions for the week!!

DISCLAIMER:These weekly predictions are just for fun(although I may be right from time to time) DISCLAIMER:I am not a meteorologist,I am not a forecaster,forecasters have degrees.I check satellite,Models & upper air flows to make my decisions ,basically throwing the dice. Sometimes I may notice something the forecast models do not pick up on. For official advisories and forecast's go to The National hurricane center.
Updated every Monday.(Times may vary) but there will be updated predictions for significant hurricane threats
Accuracy basis per week=0%=a storm forms a day or two after saying no development or completely off on every aspect of current system for the week & something else forms I did not predictor nothing forms & I predicted a named storm---30%= may get 1 thing right such as strength, but way wrong on direction & or time of landfall.---50%= after predicting no development a storm forms on the 5th day of period or I am right on strength & off on movement or visa versa---70%=after predicting no development a storm forms on 6th day of forecast or everything right except strength & or a bit off of movement of system.---100%= I predict no development & nothing happens or I predict everything pretty accurate except for just off on movement give or take 100 miles off or so..
WEEK#1=100%...#2=100%...#3=100% for the 2008 season so far 100%
Season accuracy after completion of the 2001 Hurricane season 70.77%
Season accuracy after the 2002 Hurricane season 75.20%
Season accuracy after the 2003 Hurricane season 53.20%
Season accuracy after the 2004 Hurricane season 68.87%
Season accuracy after the 2005 Hurricane season 51.56%
Season accuracy after the 2006 Hurricane season 70.62%
Season accuracy after the 2007 Hurricane season 72.76%

... (for the week of June 24th through June 29th)...Last week was another slow week in the Atlantic basin & I expect this week to be no different. We have several upper level lows spinning in the Atlantic basin which causes upper level winds to be higher than what is acceptable for tropical storm development. Water temps are plenty warm for development & this concerns me going into the height of hurricane season come August & Sept. Strong waves continue moving off of the coast of Africa but running into shear as they move, but that wont be the case in a couple of months. For this week I will once again predict no named storms as conditions remain unfavorable.
On the evening of June 1st I made my city predictions which I have done very well at since 2003 and the archived show can be watched by subscribers.
Be sure to check out my tropical update videos right here


In both 2003 & 2004 I picked 4 out of the top 5 locations that were affected by tropical systems.In 2005 it was two of the top five areas with Mississippi hit by Katrina and Punta Allen Mexico by Emily. Despite a comparative slow season in 2006 I picked 4 locations that were affected . In 2007 four of my top 20 locations were hit. If a Hurricane & or T-Storm comes within 70 Miles to the left or or 50 miles to the right or south of any one of these areas this season,consider it a hit. Since 2003 I have picked the Number one city to be hit with 2006 the first time this did not happen. Covered in yellow indicates the area was affected this year.

Picks for the 2008 season

VERY HIGH THREAT.......St Martin /Antigua/ Guadeloupe.....Grand Bahama Island.....Destin to Pensacola Fla.....Vero bch to Lake worth Fla.....Cancun Mexico.....Norfolk Virginia.....Tampico Mexico
HIGH THREAT....Cat Isl Bahamas.....Le Pesca Mexico.....Isle of youth Cuba.....Bluefields Nicaragua.....Homossasa Fla.....Matagorda Texas.....
MODERATE THREAT....Cape May NJ.....Merida Mexico.....San Salvador Bahamas.....Beaufort S.C.....Spring Hill Fla.....Grand Isle Louisiana.....Key West Fla
Ticking timebombs.....Morgan city Louisiana....Bimini Bahamas....Have your battery backup systems in place before you get hit


If you have a comment or question about my predictions or about hurricanes,post it here
During this week back in?

MODELS / PREDICTIONS

24 hour AVN model
current upper level winds
48 hour atlantic AVN model
upper level winds in 48 hrs
MRF/NGM/NAM models up to 11days,SW Atl basin
Long range model runs
NAM (North American Mesoscale) 5 day loop
ECMWF Euorpean model(unisys)
ECMWF model animated

Current & past winds at all levels
Animated versions of gfs,cmc,nogaps,gfdl,wrf
Animated versions of cmc,gfs,gfdl,nogaps,ukmet
Navy FNMOC world WXMAP Nogaps
Scatterometer storm surface winds
NOAA quikscat
Gary Gray's Trantech Model discussion(****disabled for 2006 season****)
forecaster Derek Ortt's opinions on the current storm
Crown Weather services Graphical model layouts
African dust animation
BOUY & SHIP DATA

(MAP)Buoy data

Ocean pressures from sailwx.info
caribbean obs Get observations from Caribbean Islands & Mexico here
Waves coming off of Africa
weather Observations of waves in africa
closeup satelites of waves in Africa

enhanced African waves (fenmoc)>

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

sea surface temperatures(global daily)
Great atlantic water temp map from weatherunderground
Naval temp map with satelite overlay
Closeup water temp map of NE US
Closeup water temp map of SE US
SST animation NOAA atlantic basin
Easier to read water temp maps from TPC(although not updated as often as above link)
Here you can run animated historical water temps for the Atlantic basin from USF.
NCEP hurricane potential, from SSTs to water temps
Oceanic heat content for atlantic basin(rsmas Miami)
World ocean temperature anomalies over the past 12 weeks
keep track of the MJO (moisture)here
TIDES & SATELLITE LOOPS
Wave forecast's for western Atlantic basin
Expected high tides for areas affected by tropical systems listed in alphabetical order
Naval map of wave heights
Color enhanced vapor loop
moving vapor loops from CIMSS



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