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FAQs

Forgot Password

I forgot my password. Help!

How It Works

What is Predictify?
How do I make a prediction?
How do I ask a question?
What else can I do on Predictify?
Does it cost money to use Predictify?
If Predictify is free, then how can I make money?
What determines the size of the pot on Premium questions?
Why would I want to predict the outcome of a Free question if I don’t get paid?
Why do you ask for demographic profile data (for example, age and gender) on Premium questions?

Scoring

How does Predictify track users' performance?
What are levels and how do they work?
How are payouts determined?
When and how can I withdraw my earnings?
What are Community Points? Why do some usernames have a star next to them?

Other Features

How does the comments rating system work?
How can I report an inappropriate or offensive comment?
How does the referral program work?
What are challenges?
How do I initiate or participate in a challenge?
How are challenges scored?

Submitting Questions

What’s the difference between Premium and Free questions?
What is a deterministic question?
Are certain types of questions prohibited?
What happens to my question once I submit it?
What if I have a question that's not listed here?

I forgot my password. Help!

You can request a temporary password, which will be sent to the email address on your Predictify account with further instructions on how to log in and reset your password. Please contact support@predictify.com with additional questions.

What is Predictify?

Studies have shown that large groups of regular people are often more accurate than a small group of experts at predicting the outcome of future events. Predictify is a prediction platform that harnesses this collective wisdom.

Predictify provides a simple, fun way to engage in current and future newsworthy topics. You can research, discuss and predict the outcomes of real-world events, challenge your friends to private prediction contests, build a reputation based on your accuracy, and even get paid real money when you're right. Best of all, it’s free ?no points or bets required. Click on the Predict tab above to get started.

You can also post questions about future events and collect a large sample of predictions about the outcome. Predictify’s unique system captures the full distribution of beliefs, not just the average, and provides easy-to-use graphical tools to analyze the results. Posting questions is free ?or, for a small fee, you can add predictor profile data and keep the results private. Click on the Ask tab above to get started, or check out these sample results (numerical or multiple choice).

How do I make a prediction?

It's easy and absolutely free. Just click on the Predict tab, click on a question that interests you, enter your prediction, and click the 'Predict' button. Note: Registration required.

How do I ask a question?

It's easy and absolutely free. Just click on the Ask tab, enter your deterministic question, click the 'Submit' button, confirm that your question displays correctly, and click the 'Confirm' button. Note: All questions are reviewed by Predictify prior to posting.

What else can I do on Predictify?

You can explore other features:

  • Friends - connect with friends and view their activity on the Friends Feed on your dashboard
  • Rankings - see how your performance stacks up against top predictors
  • Challenges - create a private prediction environment for you and your friends to compete against each other
  • Referrals - invite new users and receive a bonus equal to 10% of their payouts for the next six months

Does it cost money to use Predictify?

No. All of Predictify's features - including making predictions and posting questions - are absolutely free for all users.

If Predictify is free, then how can I make money?

By accurately predicting the outcome of Premium questions. Predictify charges Premium question-askers a fee of $1 per response and shares a portion of this fee (the pot) with the predictors based on their accuracy.

What determines the size of the pot on Premium questions?

Since we charge Premium question-askers $1 per response, not a flat fee, the total pot for a question is based on the number of responses, up to a maximum set by the question-asker (we show both current and max pot on Premium questions).

Each predictor's share of the pot, or payout, is based on his/her predictive accuracy, level of expertise, and time of submission (earlier is better) relative to other users. The time factor is included to reward predictors for responding early, when there often is less certainty about the outcome of an event.

Why would I want to predict the outcome of a Free question if I don’t get paid?

Predictify tracks users' accuracy on all questions, both Premium and Free, so participating in Free questions is a great way to move up to a higher level of expertise, which in turn increases payouts on Premium questions. Plus, predictors can view the results (unlike Premium question results, which are kept private) and earn Community Points.

Why do you ask for demographic profile data (for example, age and gender) on Premium questions?

Demographic profile data makes the results more interesting for our paying customers who post Premium questions. This profile information is never associated with your predictions in a personally identifiable way. Please see our Privacy Policy for more information.

How does Predictify track users' performance?

Predictify tracks each user's accuracy on both Premium and Free questions, where accuracy is a function of the correctness of a response and the time of submission (earlier is better). A user's accuracy percentile, which is based on cumulative accuracy over the past year relative to all other users, determines his/her level of expertise.

What are levels and how do they work?

Predictify has five levels of expertise: Beginner, Apprentice, Scholar, Expert, and Guru. Each user is assigned a level in each topic. For example, a user may be a Politics Guru, a Business Expert, and a Pop Culture Beginner.

New users start out as Beginner in all topics and become eligible for advancement after three questions close for which they have submitted predictions (in that topic). Once the three-question minimum is reached, levels are determined by a user’s accuracy percentile over the past six months combined with the number of predictions made in that category, with recent performance weighted more heavily. The level cutoffs are:

Level Accuracy Percentile
Beginner 0% - 24%
Apprentice 25% - 49%
Scholar 50% - 74%
Expert 75% - 89%
Guru 90% - 99%

How are payouts determined?

Since we charge Premium question-askers $1 per response, not a flat fee, the total pot for a question is based on the number of responses, up to a maximum set by the question-asker (we show both current and max pot on Premium questions).

Each predictor's share of the pot, or payout, is based on his/her predictive accuracy, level of expertise, and time of submission (earlier is better) relative to other users. The time factor is included to reward predictors for responding early, when there often is less certainty about the outcome of an event.

Predictify uses proprietary algorithms to determine levels and payouts, but the system can be generalized as:

Total Payout = Accuracy / Time Payout + Level Bonus

Accuracy Payout is based on the correctness of a response and the time of submission (earlier is better). Level Bonus is determined by a predictor’s level of expertise in the topic, according to the following scale:

Level Bonus
Beginner 0%
Apprentice 10%
Scholar 25%
Expert 100%
Guru 300%

When and how can I withdraw my earnings?

Predictify automatically pays out account balances on the last day of each month, subject to a $20.00 withdrawal minimum. Users can choose to have balances transferred to a PayPal account or sent as a paper check to a mailing address. Please visit the Withdrawal Options page to set your preferences.

What are Community Points? Why do some usernames have a star next to them?

Community Points are a record of cumulative activity on Predictify and reward users for participation on the site, regardless of predictive accuracy or earnings. Each user has one overall Community Points balance and accumulates points as they use the site. Points are awarded for the following activities:

Activity Points
Submit a Premium question (approved and posted) 10
Refer a new user (email or referral link) 5
Submit a Free question (approved and posted) 5
Send a friend invite that is accepted 3
Send a question to a friend 3
Post a comment 3
Submit a prediction 1

Each user is assigned a badge based on his/her Community Points balance, which is displayed on his/her profile page. Badges are awarded according to the following scale:

Badge Points Range
None 0 - 99
Bronze Star 100 - 499
Silver Star 500 - 999
Gold Star 1,000 - 9,999
Platinum Star 10,000+

How does the comments rating system work?

To encourage high-quality discussion, each comment can be rated using the 'thumbs-up' and 'thumbs-down' icons. If you think a comment adds useful information to the topic (even if you don’t agree with it), click the ‘thumbs up?icon. Doing so will give the commentor a community point. If you think the comment is inappropriate or uninformative, click the ‘thumbs down?icon. This will subtract a community point from the commentor. While a good comment can yield unlimited community points, a bad one will only result in a net loss of 1 community point (up to -4 points total since 3 points are awarded for posting a comment).

Each user can rate each comment once and can change the rating an unlimited number of times. Any comment with a rating of less than -3 (i.e. thumbs-down from at least 4 users) will be hidden. The rating system is not intended to limit or censor opinions the opinions of our users. If you disagree with a comment or believe that it is factually incorrect, then reply and set the record straight!

How can I report an inappropriate or offensive comment?

Comments that violate common standards of decency will be removed. Violations include profanity, references to illegal activities or language that could be deemed racially, religiously, or sexually offensive.

To report a comment that you believe is inappropriate or offensive, click on the ‘Report?link below the comment. A Predictify Customer Support Representative will be notified and will investigate the comment as soon as possible. We reserve the right to remove comments for any reason.

How does the referral program work?

When someone you invite joins Predictify, they automatically become one of your referrals - and you get 5 Community Points the moment they sign up. For the next six months, whenever one of your referrals gets a payout, you'll receive a bonus equal to 10% of their payout.

You get credit for every new user you direct to the site. You can invite your friends using the address book widget on your dashboard or post a custom link on your blog, website, or social networking profile.

That's all there is to it. Now you can make money off of the wisdom of your friends!

What are challenges?

Challenges allow you to create a private prediction environment for you and your friends. You can hand-pick the challengers, view each other's predictions, have a private discussion, and build a win-loss record based on your accuracy.

Challenge pages are private - only the participants of a challenge can view the challenge page.

How do I initiate or participate in a challenge?

You can initiate a challenge from any question page. Just click the 'Create a New Challenge' link on the right-hand side of the page and follow the easy three-step invitation process. If you're invited to participate in a challenge, you can accept or decline the challenge on your dashboard page.

Any challenger can invite additional challengers from the challenge page. Just click the 'Add Friends' link at the top of the Participants list on the left-hand side and follow the easy three-step invitation process.

Any new users you invite who sign up for a Predictify account will be added to your referrals and you'll receive a bonus equal to 10% of their payouts for the next six months.

How are challenges scored?

Predictions made on a challenge page are scored against other challengers' predictions in the form of a "wins-losses-ties" record. For example, if you invite 10 people to join your challenge (for a total of 11 challengers, including yourself) and your prediction is third most accurate, then you will receive a record of 8-2-0. That means you "beat" eight participants, "lost" to two participants, and "tied" zero participants. Your challenges record is cumulative and includes wins, losses, and ties from every challenge you have participated in.

In addition to an overall record, each user has a challenges record against every other user based on your performance against only that user. You can see your record against a specific user when you visit his or her profile page.

Note: Predictions made on a challenge page are also included in the main data set and count toward level of expertise, payouts, etc.

What’s the difference between Premium and Free questions?

Premium questions have a pot value of $1 or more, and Free questions have a pot value of $0. Pot values are shown in the list of questions on the Predict tab and directly after the question title on every question page.

Premium questions have several advanced features, including:

  • May be used to promote products or services
  • Large sample size - up to 10,000 responses, at $1 per response
  • Rich data set - includes predictor profile information, such as age and gender
  • Proprietary results - data remains private indefinitely

Free questions can be posted at no charge, but have several limitations:

  • May not be commercial in nature (question guidelines)
  • Small sample size - limited to 500 responses
  • Basic data set - no predictor profile information
  • Public results - results posted to all predictors

What is a deterministic question?

A deterministic question has an objective, fact-based answer. For example:

  • Who will win the 2008 Presidential election?
  • At what rate will the U.S. GDP grow next year?
  • Which NFL team will win the Super Bowl this season?

Questions such as "Which of these three products do you like best?" or "Will the Apple iPhone sell well?" are not deterministic because they do not have an objective answer.

Are certain types of questions prohibited?

Yes. Predictify may not be used for securities replication, odds-making, betting, gambling, or wagering. Please see our Question Guidelines for more information.

What happens to my question once I submit it?

All new questions are reviewed by Predictify prior to posting. Questions that fail to comply with our Question Guidelines or Terms of Use may be rejected outright or returned to the creator for changes. Predictify will notify users via email of all compliance decisions, and users can monitor the status of submitted questions on the My History page.

Questions may be assigned any one of the following statuses:

  • Pending - question is under review by Predictify or awaiting changes by the user who submitted it, but has not been posted live on the site
  • Open - question has been approved by Predictify and posted live on the site
  • Full - question has reached its response limit and prediction activity has been suspended
  • Ended - question has reached its end date and prediction activity has been suspended
  • Closed - question outcome has been verified by Predictify, and scoring and payout algorithms have been run

What if I have a question that's not listed here?

Feel free to email customer support (support@predictify.com) with any other questions.