Tuesday, September 2, 2008

The Essential Difference

Think of an American president being inaugurated. What image comes to mind?



Almost certianly this one, eh?

This picture embodies what is perhaps the essential difference between the qualifications for the presidency and the qualifications for the vice presidency. In a perfect world, we would all like a president who is Ready on Day One (TM); it is not uncommon for a newly-elected president to face a major crisis almost immediately upon taking office. But more commonly, a president takes the Oath of Office under relatively calm waters, allowing them something of a learning curve.

On the other hand, when a vice president takes over for a president, the nation is necessarily undergoing a crisis, because the death (or resignation) of a president is perhaps as traumatic an event as can reasonably be imagined (in the "best" case resulting from a slowly-developing illness, and the worst, an attack by terrorists or foreign adversaries).

From Lincoln though Clinton, Americans have frequently been willing to gamble on a relatively inexperienced President, exchanging some assurances of near-term readiness for longer-term upside (what might be described as "vision"). But the optimal skill set for a vice president is somewhat different. "Vision" hardly matters; a vice president taking over for a president will not get to name his own cabinet, and will initially at least be left to execute upon somebody else's agenda. Instead, the readiness component is rendered more important.

I suspect most Americans grasp this on a gut level, even if they aren't quite able to articulate it. Which is why, to my gut instinct, I think Americans can feel sympathy for Sarah Palin, can believe she's the sort of person they'd want to have a beer with -- and still find her a detriment to McCain's case for the White House.

436 comments

Scott919 said...

Nate....your statistics are nice, but you're really starting to flirt with "Daily Kos" level of credibility, here.

Simon said...

An interesting point.

Frankly, I think the Republicans/McCain depend heavily on people not thinking things through.

The Palin pick, whatever you want to say about it, is hugely hypocritical and talking about the Alaskan National Guard or being next to Russia is a sign that they really have nothing substantial to back her up with. Has any Governor in history ever used their state national guard in a manner like this? I don't believe so, and many governors have run for President.

I suspect this decision will help McCain in Georgia, North Carolina, and Indiana, states that he was having trouble in but in which a Republican evangelical base now has a reason to vote. But in the more important states, the bigger national message campaign, the hypocrisy and crassness of his choice stinks too much not to hurt him.

Sedi said...

I just commented on this topic in the other post. Palin definitely needs to demonstrate that she has a firm grasp on national issues. I hadn't really thought of it in terms of taking over during a crisis, because McCain is more likely to die of natural causes than of unnatural ones, I would think. My guess is that she will face intense scrutiny, not only into her past but probing questions trying to gauge how well she knows national issues.

A big issue that might develop could be her allegiance to Alaska. In the Kudlow interview she spoke of the VP role in terms of how it might help Alaska. She was previously a member of the AIP. Culturally she is obviously heavily steeped in all things Alaskan. While admirable, it could be a problem if she is seen more as an advocate for Alaska than for America as a whole.

Matthew said...

Not that I don't mind a little bit of it, but I agree with the first poster...I like this site because it cuts through all the "people may think..." talk and goes for the math.

I am actually really interested in finding out how all of the hubbub of the period from the selection of Biden to the end of the Republican convention is going to go. None of the state polling in the states that matter (which at this point is almost totally Ohio and Colorado) is really conclusive, just yet. I hunger for answers!

Sedi said...

"Nate....your statistics are nice, but you're really starting to flirt with "Daily Kos" level of credibility, here."

Scott919,
What does this mean? If your point is that this is an insightful, thought-provoking analysis that isn't directly related to polls, I agree. Otherwise, state your problem with it. Don't just denigrate it for no reason.

Matthew,
Yes, of course commentary on a whole slew of new swing-state polls would be great. But there hasn't been a meaningful poll for days, and with the conventions messing up the numbers, there likely won't be another reliable poll for a week.

MrInsight22 said...

Poor Jackie. When near LBJ she had to pretend she didn't suspect that he was in on the conspiracy. But she married a billionaire and moved out of the country as soon as she could to protect her kids.

Anyways, I suspect that Palin's Wednesday night speech will go a long ways to determine her overall perception among the masses. Her debate with Biden will get massive ratings.

Can't wait for next week's pent-up wave of state polls.

Wilson said...

Man after today, I don't know what McSame is going to do.

If he has any brain cells left in that 72 year old head that still works, he would dump her today and get someone else before she is confirmed Thursday.

Kali said...

Maybe one beer. Not sure what we'd talk about, though, as I am a scientist, not athletic, a liberal, and not religious. I've never owned a gun, or caught a fish. Maybe we could talk about motherhood, but I am far less ambitious than she; if my teen were pregnant, I wouldn't place her in the national spotlight. And I wouldn't be dragging my newborn, special needs son with me to campaign rallies. So, well... other than the fact that we are both women in our 40's, there wouldn't be much to talk about.

Matthew said...

I will make one prediction:

If Palin gets the Eagleton treatment, McCain's chances of winning go down to about 5%.

DCM in FL said...

I am supportive of Nate following through with this line of questioning since it is so vital to the election IMO.

But why is McCain still sticking with the selection ? I assume that they were setting the table to allow Palin to withdraw her name 'for the good of the family' by releasing the teen pregnancy on Monday.

In the meantime, perhaps the GOP is seriously vetting someone else, although they supposedly have that team of vetters up in AK now after the fact...

Anyway, I posted this previously and it still apllies:
--------------------------------------
here is the summary for the GOP Lutz focus group in Minneapolis this weekend link @

http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/
--------------------------------
"Another week, another Frank Luntz/AARP focus group of undecided voters--this one in Minneapolis and with some bad news for John McCain: they don't like the choice of Sarah Palin for vice president.

Only one person said Palin made him more likely to vote for McCain; about half the 25-member group raised their hands when asked if Palin made them less likely to vote for McCain.

They had a negative impression of Palin by a 2-1 margin...a fact that was reinforced when they were given hand-dials and asked to react to Palin's speech at her first appearance with McCain on Friday---the dials remained totally neutral as Palin went through her heart-warming(?) biography, and only blipped upwards when she said she opposed the Bridge to Nowhere--which wasn't quite the truth, as we now know."

the final summary...

"Afterwards Luntz, good Republican that he is, made the case that Palin could win all these people back with a good convention speech, but that seemed far-fetched to me. They really saw this pick as a gimmick--and one that reflected badly on John McCain's judgment."
-----------------------------------
IMHO this speaks for itself. The points Nate raises [in his thread] seems to scare off the voters when they really get to know what she [Palin] stands for.

kevin626 said...

This Palin pick seems to get worse by the day. This election is over unless McCain does the smart thing and removes her from the ticket.

yiannis said...

ABC and POLITICO both report that Palin was a member of the Alaska Independence Party.

What does this selection say about McCain's experience and judgment?

All these years and McCain's judgment is a really big joke!

yiannis said...

Palin to Putin: No need to fight over Alaska!! It's not really American anyway!

Kali said...

Some in blogworld have been posting that the grand plan was a head fake. McCain wants Lieberman, so the idea is to make him more palatable by picking someone outrageous first, then being "forced" to let her go.

I don't think that's going to work out, if that is the plan. They seem to have staged her as "the mother and next-door neighbor" to perhaps make it more difficult for the opposition to attack her. If they throw her under the bus, they are prey to their own trap. I agree with Matthew, it's Palin or nothing, at this point.

At this point, McCain is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't.

Alex S. said...

All this news makes Joe Biden look boring now...

Sooo... how is going to be the "real" VP pick? It´s either the Rovian candidate (Romney) or the total anti-Rove candidate (Lieberman).

C.S.Strowbridge said...

I would just like to make two points...

1.) I like the analysis like this between polls. If you don't want to here this kind of debate, go here...

electionprojection.com/president08.shtml

He shut down the forums because there were too many liberals.

2.) When I first heard Palin was McCain's V.P. choice my thought was, 'Huh?' I dismissed the rumors that it was her as a head fake. McCain could later say he had vetted her, but didn't choose here because she wasn't experienced enough, and then pick Pawlenty.

Now the more I hear about Palin, the worse this pick sounds. However, I don't think McCain can drop her, not unless there's some major disaster, else he will look indecisive. Better strong and wrong than weak, at least according to his base.

Matthew said...

I think of all of the strikes against Sarah Palin, membership in the Alaskan Independence Party is the one that can't be gotten around. It wasn't like this was something that happened a long time ago, as I understand it it was only ten years ago.
If someone doesn't want to be an American citizen, they really really should not be the American president.
Everyone here is probably very used to the McCain campaigns "Should a President think it is okay to meet with anti-American foreign leaders"...well, should a president think it is okay to have an anti-American vice-president?

Tito said...

Nate nailed it. The VP is an insurance policy against tragedy and inexperience. If the VP were a driving instructor, then Palin barely has her learner's permit.

Jeremy said...

Some in blogworld have been posting that the grand plan was a head fake. McCain wants Lieberman, so the idea is to make him more palatable by picking someone outrageous first, then being "forced" to let her go.

Impossible now. The base would have revolted with Lieberman on the ticket. After having Palin dangled in their face? Can you say "end of the GOP"?

Diallo said...

amen, Nate

Especially since Cheney, I would make the case that the VP needs to be MORE experienced than the POTUS for many of the reasons you've sited

I fear the sycophant press' reaction to her speech - I think they are in the tank to love it...!

obsessed said...

Which is why, to my gut instinct, I think Americans can feel sympathy for Sarah Palin, can believe she's the sort of person they'd want to have a beer with -- and still find her a detriment to McCain's case for the White House.

Dead on for the second part of the premise. As soon as it was announced I had the immediate strong gut reaction that McCain would be the president most likely to die or be too sick to continue, and that Palin would be to the presidency what Monica Goodling was to the Justice Dept.

As for having a beer with her, I'll pass. And as for having sympathy for her? After the traumatic lifelong humiliation she cold-bloodedly subjected her daughter to? I have as much sympathy for her as I do for Mark Foley. They're both faux-pious hypocrites who knowingly harm children.

Voice of Reason said...

On August 14, two weeks before John McCain selected her to be his running mate, Roll Call interviewed Sarah Palin and asked her whether she had been vetted. Her answer:

Palin: [The national GOP has asked for old speeches] and that's been kind of recent. But other than that, I don't know anything about how they're doing anything.

RC: Who has asked for your old speeches?

Palin: Those who are putting on the GOP convention, or the RNC. But, no, I wouldn't consider that any kind of official vetting. So, again, more evidence of this out of the realm of possibility.

With time running out -- and as Mr. McCain discarded two safer choices, Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota and former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, as too predictable -- he turned to Ms. Palin. He had his first face-to-face interview with her on Thursday and offered her the job moments later.

This pick says more about John McCain than Sarah Palin. It really does. John McCain caved to the anti-abortion theocrats running the Republican party, made a hasty pick for his v.p., and is now suffering the consequences.

McCain had five months to make his choice. And this is the best job he could do? Not that I hadn't already decided against him, but shouldn't this rash decision essentially disqualify him from being president?

If he really wanted Palin, he could have picked her three or four months ago, and given her a chance. Now he's given her no chance. She's going to crash and burn, and it's all John McCain's fault.

from Jed Report

DCM in FL said...

MATTHEW

excellent post about the A.I.P.

That alone should disqualify her, but how could the vetters have missed that ?

oh, that's right - she answered a 70 question interview ! and he had met Palin once before the past week. and Cindy thought it was a cool idea...

Well, as more on the radical A.I.P. hits the fan each day, plus further revelations bound to drop each day since all those reporters are up north digging around now well it will just get worse & worse

I just researched the A.I.P. and they are really radical but a serious political party in AK - even have won the governorship - plus Palin taped a video message encouraging them since she became governor !

In fact the A.I.P. has Palin's video up on there website now !!!

watch the video @ http://www.akip.org/conv08.html

GO SARAH PALIN - or not...

hosertohoosier said...

Cognitive dissonance much, Nate?

Obama with two actual years of national legislative experience (only 160 days in the senate) is clearly experienced enough to be President.

Tim Kaine, has almost the same background as Palin (city council, mayor, lt. gov and 2 years as governor). He is a plausible vice-president (and, since McCain is obviously going to die in office, a plausible president).

John Edwards had one term in the senate - the last two of which were mostly spent running for president. He was, pre-scandal, a plausible president.

Lets pick on some Republicans too. Mitt Romney with 4 years in governor (and a low approval rating on leaving) - he'd be a great president. McCain should have picked him, since he has more experience.

Nate, your argument is a thinly veiled attempt to reiterate a Dailykos talking point as analysis. It is stupid even from your partisan point of view - since, if Palin's experience is an issue, so too is Obama's. It goes against your earlier argument that experience is really about "newness" (which was correct). Of course you throw in "vision", which acts as a dummy variable that captures all of the cases that do not fit Nate on experience 2.0.

The primary job of the vice-presidential appointment is to compensate for perceived weaknesses and add new strengths to the ticket.

The "if they die" job is secondary at best - it has happened exactly once in the postwar era (plus Nixon resigned in disgrace). IF it happens, it is very unlikely that it will happen on day one. So any Vice-president will have vice-presidential experience between 0-4 years.

Of the possible causes of death of presidents, they tend to bunch towards the end, not the beginning of a term.

-Scandals have to happen for somebody to be forced to resign - and they have to be discovered. So that tends towards the end of a term.

-Any health problems need to be successfully masked from the public. Thus far McCain's performance shows no signs that either his age or illnesses are catching up to him. Harding, for instance, died in 1923.

-What about assassination. Well, you generally have to be hated by somebody to be assassinated (and most of the folks with guns like McCain). Kennedy was shot in year 3, Lincoln and McKinley after their first terms, while Garfield bucks the trend. However, Guitane's motive - being unable to obtain a federal post - is no longer relevant, since we don't have the patronage system of the 1880's.

So the experience question is essentially this... Is Obama qualified to be president NOW, or is there a 25% chance (I'm being VERY generous here) Palin will be qualified to be president, after being vice-president for three years.

Bill P. said...

Scott lashes out at Nate not because Scott believes Nate is wrong, but because Scott knows Nate is 100% correct.

Nice analysis, Nate. Spot on for sure.

DCM in FL said...

wows, hoser

your counter-argument is just plain thin.

especially on the 'assasination' line of reasoning...

remember Reagan was shot & very easily good have died [plus it probably led to his deterioration in office].

and credible threats against others, including Ford.

so whether a POTUS McCain would have enemies [which he would have plenty of including Iran & OBL] the fact remains he is already 72 y/o ex-POW not in the greatest shape with numerous bouts of melanoma & stress in the job his likeihood of living out 4-8 years is a coin toss IMO as well as general consensus.

Comeone, even McCain is supposedly considering the 'one term' pledge to counter the age & diminished capacity issues - which are real legitinate concerns despite your attempted spin to the contrary that does not rationally fly.

Chuck said...

John McCain's campaign manager Rick Davis said Sarah Palin was given a backround check by the FBI. That was a lie. The Federal Bureau of Investigation did not participate in the vetting of Gov. Sarah Palin and did not conduct a background check as part of the process, an FBI spokesman said today.

DCM in FL said...

McCain should blame his bad pick on faulty intel from Bush & Cheney rather than the FBI.

One the one hand, that would get him some sympathy -

but on the other hand, everyone by now should know better than to believe anything said by Bush & Cheney...

lose - lose - lose

benh57 said...

Wow.
You can't get much more "anti-american" than wanting to secede from the union. That's not even metaphorical. It's quite literally 'anti-american'. It's astounding that the GOP would nominate someone who wanted to secede.

I hope the MSM picks this up..

obsessed said...

Cognitive dissonance much, Nate?

Obama with two actual years of national legislative experience


HOSER: A truer handle I've yet to hear, but ENOUGH already with that braindead talking point! You're like that critic who panned all of Beethoven's symphonies.

Clean the cobwebs out of your Limbaugh-addled sorry excuse for a brain and listen to Obama for 15 minutes! There's something really wrong with you if can't tell that he has an IQ approaching 200, a consummate knowledge of history, the patience of a saint, the wisdom of Solomon, and a better ability to put together a huge, perfectly-running organzation than anyone in generations.

Barack Obama is the natural. Even Pat Buchanan can't deny it.

Snap out of it and pay attention, hoser - it's like frikkin arguing with you about a movie you haven't seen.

Voice of Reason said...

The fun keeps coming! Palin was almost recalled as mayor for firing the Police Chief for backing her opponent in 1996 election:

http://hatthief.blogspot.com/2008/08/vetting-sarah-palin-irl-stambaugh-walt.html

John McCain, Putting Country Last since August 29th, 2008!

GaMeS said...

Nate, you hit the nail on the head:

* A president who arrives by election is a part of a peaceful transition, even if there is already a lot on the presidential plate on inauguration day.

* A president who arrives by succession is, by definition, arriving during a moment of serious national crisis and turmoil. As such, the first person in the line of succession has to be a very, very steady hand -- not necessarily the equal of the top of the ticket, but at least in the same ballpark.


Palin seems not to meet this standard. She is, at best, very light on "major office" experience; at worst, some of the scandals that have floated to the surface over the weekend show some serious lapses in judgment.


The irony of all this baby talk is that it distracted from the reopening of the age debate: A 72-year-old multiple cancer survivor is almost certainly a little higher on the "unthinkable tragedy" scale, and the insurance policy of a steady, experienced, and clear-minded successor becomes that much more important.

If McCain were elected and his tenure went down the 30-day-path of William Henry Harrison, no one -- anywhere -- would say, "Thank God for Vice President Palin!"

DarienCrow said...

Hey DCM... I checked out the AIP too.

What's wrong with them?
What's "radical" about them?

So they are strict constitutionalists with a priority to the interests of Alaska and Alaskans.

What's wrong with that?

In the video Sarah says she supports their convention, understands their plight, and she feels that compitition is good.

Where is the crime?

Should we go after the Green Party next?

How about the Constitution Party... are they "radical" too?

Stop being a hack. Johnny Mac is not dumping Sarah Palin... no matter how bad you want him to. You will have to beat them fair and square although I know you have a problem with the fair part.

obsessed said...

Palin was almost recalled as mayor for firing the Police Chief for backing her opponent in 1996 election

Exactly - it's a pattern of abuse - it's just like Monica Goodling. She's so myopic and incompetent that she doesn't even understand why it's wrong to misuse her powers in these ways.

Bryan said...

Tim Kaine was never a serious contender, specifically because of his relative lack of experience.

Although it could be said that Virginia is the 12th largest state, and Alaska is the 47th. And that Virginia has 10 times as many people .. but despite all that, most people had Kaine written off very early on for many of the same reasons no one expected McCain to pick Palin.

obsessed said...
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obsessed said...
This post has been removed by the author.
obsessed said...

The more I think about it, the more brilliant the central premise of Nate's post is. The VP is like fire insurance. You never expect to use it but you'd damned well better keep it in force and it had damned well better be a solid company.

obsessed said...

Alaskan Republicans on Palin's Qualifications:

State Senate President Lyda Green said she thought it was a joke when someone called her at 6 a.m. to tell her the news. "She's not prepared to be governor. How can she be prepared to be vice president or president?" said Green, a Republican from Palin's hometown of Wasilla. "Look at what she's done to this state. What would she do to the nation?"

House Speaker John Harris, a Republican from Valdez, was also astonished at the news. He didn't want to get into the issue of her qualifications. "She's old enough," Harris said. "She's a U.S. citizen."


(from Billmon's excellent post:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/2/02913/38245/923/582845)

OzJohnnie said...

You have got to be joking!

So the argument that the VP needs to be more qualified than the President? Nice implicit acknowledgment that Biden has better goods than Obama.

I never thought I would hear it, but add that to the list of things I would love you to push:

1. The VP must be more qualified than the President.

2. That Palin's love for America must be compared in depth to MO's

3. That BO's experience must be contrasted against Palin's.

4. That one of a hundred tough 'mother choices' make Palin unsuitable for high office.

This is great. McCain won't even have to campaign. You guys are thinking up every conceivable way to hand him the election.

McCain, you say? Who's that? For the last three days the BO camp has descended into a negative cat fight screaming that McCain is brain damaged, or senile or any other mental malady and that Palin is a small town trailer trash hick unqualified for the office.

Keep that up. It's a great idea.

Oz.

DCM in FL said...

CROW

you guys argue that Obama should be denied POTUS because as a child he went to a school in Indonesia...

you think that the A.I.P. is a mainstream political party ?

well maybe compared to the GOP it is...

In thew '90's, Palin belonged to this political party that primarily wants to secede from the union & it has several other 'radical' beliefs that it expouses - including eliminating the public school system:
-------------------------------------
The Alaskan Independence Party is a political party in the U.S. state of Alaska. Its best-known policy is its call for a United Nations vote, which they claim should have been offered as an option in the plebiscite on statehood under international law.

Ideologically a constitutional foundation, the party also calls for increased Alaskan control of Alaskan land, gun rights, privatization, home schooling, and reduction of governmental intrusion in the private lives of its citizens with adherence to the founding documents of the United States.

The party has appeared on the ballot in Alaska in all state elections since 1970.

Michael said...

I just want to say in response to the criticism in the comments that even though the primary purpose of this site is to analyze statistics, I enjoy the analysis posts and hope that you continue to publish analysis.

mark said...

Best. Video. Ever.

Campbell Brown interviews McCain aide Tucker Bounds

Brown: I've heard you guys say this a lot... Can you just tell me one decision that she's made as the commander of the Alaskan National Guard? Just one?

Bounds: Yeah. She has made... any decision she has made as the commander of the National Guard that's deployed overseas is more of a decision than Barack Obama has been making as he's been running for President for the past two years...

Brown: Ok so tell me, tell me... give me an example of one of those
decisions. I'm just curious. Just one decision she made in her capacity as commander in chief of the National Guard.

Bounds: Campbell, certainly you don't mean to belittle every experience, every judgement that she makes as the commander of the national guard...

Brown: I'm belittling nothing! I just want to know, one judgement... one decision. I would love to know what one decision was. I'm not belittling anything, Tucker. I'm really not. I'm curious.

Bounds: As she makes the decision as to how to equip, how to command the national guard of the Alas... in Alaska... that is more experience and more of a judgement than Barack Obama is making on the campaign trail. That's my only argument.

OzJohnnie said...

DCM;

Oh, I love that idea. Pursue the AIP and we'll explore her involvement in detail.

And then we'll contrast that against BO's 20 year association with Jeremiah "God damn America!" Wright. And explore in detail the sermons he attended with "I can no more disavow him than my grandmother" Wright. And the joint appearances with Wright.

Yeah, great idea. Let's explore that record and contrast it against small town Alaska. It's a winner for BO, without a doubt.

Friggin' idiots.

DCM in FL said...

MARK

that poor Tucker Bounds fellow is a dull tool. Every time he opens his mouth on any topic on the cable shows, Tucker ends up with his foot in it...

such a poor mouthpiece that I almost feel sorry for him - except that he chooses to try to say those dumb talking points & you can tell he is clueless... IMHO

obsessed said...

Hey Oz - have they privatized the yellow brick road and sold it to Saudi Arabia yet?

DCM in FL said...

OZ

pot calling the kettle black or what ?

you bozzos have been nakedly trying to tar & feather Obama with Wright all summer !

hypocrite, no ? YES

ENOUGH of your nonsense

Pssst said...

Thanks, Nate. I've had that LBJ photo in my mind as well, when thinking about Palin. Terrible things can happen in a presidency, and they can happen even more quickly than they did to JFK. Consider:

- Gerald Ford survived two attempts on his life barely a year after he entered office.

- Reagan was shot within weeks of being sworn in.

- Two attempts were made on Clinton about a year and a half into his presidency.

- And as for Dubya, the first attempt occurred just days after his inauguration.

That's four of the past six presidents, folks.

For that reason alone, a VP needs to pass the "commander-in-chief test" from day one. I think it's pretty clear that Biden passes that test, and in my opinion Obama has proven that he passes as well. Palin, whose experience is nothing compared to Obama's, fails it miserably...

Jeremy said...

A lot of things have shaken out over the past day or two, but guys and gals, the AIP is not going to bear the fruit you want it to. Read their goals. Independence is not spelled out in explicitly radical language. Merely a call for a vote.

If anything that came out over the past couple of days has an impact, I predict it will be the Bristol pregnancy announcement. It annoys the base a little, but the real impact is on the independents who will see that, not only was she unable to prevent her daughter from poor family planning by her misguided view, but that she has touted her daughter's choice to have the baby when she would rather deny that choice to every expecting mother in the nation.

DCM in FL said...

PSSSST

yeah, but Sarah will be packing heat since she is an NRA momma so no one would wanna mess with her in DC.

and John is a veteran pilot, so he could bomb them - did you know he was a POW ?

GaMeS said...

hosertohoosier said...

Cognitive dissonance much, Nate?

...

The "if they die" job is secondary at best - it has happened exactly once in the postwar era (plus Nixon resigned in disgrace). IF it happens, it is very unlikely that it will happen on day one. So any Vice-president will have vice-presidential experience between 0-4 years.

Of the possible causes of death of presidents, they tend to bunch towards the end, not the beginning of a term.



So ... do you just pull "facts" directly out of your ass?


VICE PRESIDENTIAL TENURE IN CASES OF SUCCESSION:

(1) John Tyler: 31 days -- Harrison dies 4/4/1841

(2) Millard Fillmore: 492 days (1 year, 4 months) -- Taylor dies 7/9/1850

(3) Andrew Johnson: 42 days -- Lincoln assassinated 4/15/1865; Johnson was new on the ticket during Lincoln's second term

(4) Chester A. Arthur: 199 days -- Garfield assassinated 9/19/1881

(5) Theodore Roosevelt: 194 days -- McKinley assassinated 9/14/1901; Roosevelt was new on the ticket during McKinley's second term

(6) Calvin Coolidge: 881 days (2 years, 5 months) -- Harding dies 8/2/1923

(7) Harry S Truman: 82 days -- FDR dies 4/12/1945; Truman was new on the ticket during FDR's fourth term

(8) Lyndon Johnson: 1036 days (2 years, 10 months) -- Kennedy assassinated 11/22/1963

(9) Gerald Ford: 246 days -- Nixon resigned 8/9/1974; Ford was appointed to replace Agnew during Nixon's second term


AVERAGE TENURE: 355.9 days


... so, where's this "they tend to bunch towards the end, not the beginning of a term" bullshit come from?


The fact is that 9 out of 43 presidents died in office, were assassinated, or resigned -- that's more than 1 in 5 over our history. And in those cases, the vice president who succeeds the president has been on the job for less than a year on average. Not one -- not one -- vice president who had to succeed a president mid-term had a full term of experience under his belt, and only 2 out of 9 had even half a term!


Cognitive dissonance much, hosertohoosier? Facts are stubborn things. ;-)

OzJohnnie said...

DCM;

you bozzos have been nakedly trying to tar & feather Obama with Wright all summer !


Just pass your course in Advanced History Re-writing, did you? Hillary! was trying to make it stick and it didn't, did it? Why not? Because people believe all this patriotism questioning is out of bounds.

So, what's the best way to get it inbounds? Oh, I don't know... maybe have BO actually start questioning Palin's patriotism, making his own fair game.

You clowns think you smell blood and then you start swarming like a bunch of half drunk teenagers at a keg party. You are your own worst enemies and you high school debating champion fantasies will be the end of your candidate.

These are the topics that are off limits to BO due to his own history:

1. Houses

2. Patriotism

3. Radical associations

4. Experience

If he pursues any of those paths, then he lets huge skeletons out of the closet, dooming his chances. I think that BO is too smart to bring those things up.

I have no such high regard for you or your fellow nutrooters, however. I have every confidence that you will ask stupid question on just these topics. So ask away. I look forward to your heads exploding, ala Scanners, when he goes down and you all are to blame.

Oz

hosertohoosier said...

DCM said,

Reagan was divisive (especially early on) and well-known, while Ford presided over a particularly radical period in American history, and was riding out the end of the unpopular Nixon's last term. I agree my argument is weak, but I think you miss it's point.

1. There is a large chance McCain will not die in office.
2. If McCain dies in office, there is a larger probability that he will die in the later part of his term in office.

So even if McCain dies in office, Sarah Palin will have some amount of experience. Moreover, she will have a relatively clear plan of government from McCain - presidents in office due to assassination generally follow the direction of their predecessors.

Obsessed said:
"Clean the cobwebs out of your Limbaugh-addled sorry excuse for a brain and listen to Obama for 15 minutes! There's something really wrong with you if can't tell that he has an IQ approaching 200, a consummate knowledge of history, the patience of a saint, the wisdom of Solomon, and a better ability to put together a huge, perfectly-running organzation than anyone in generations."

So your essential counter to my argument is that it is self-evident that Obama is qualified, because you think he is awesome.

Some of your comments are patently ridiculous - for instance you claim he has an IQ approaching 200. What of Obama gives you that impression? His speeches are dumbed down versions of civics classes, and, given that a large part of IQ tests come down to math, how has he shown any faculty there?

He graduated from Harvard law magna cum laude. Pretty good, but Ivy League law schools are big on grade inflation. Moreover, why is an IQ above say, 110 critical to the presidency? Indeed, many people with extremely high IQ's have trouble relating to others and from my personal experience psychological problems.

You claim he has the patience of a saint (why couldn't he wait till his first senate term was over before he ran for president), and the wisdom of Solomon. Does that mean Obama supports cutting Bristol Palin's baby in half?

As for Obama's campaign organization, anybody who follows a campaign knows that the organization runs you, you don't run the organization. Handlers are constantly telling you where to go, what to do, and presenting you with the options they have. You are really arguing that Axelrod-Plouffe should be the ticket (if they were, I'd give them my fake vote).

As for Pat Buchanan, a man who ran for president at least twice, despite never serving in elected office, and who, presumably thought he was qualified for public office, it is not surprising that he thinks Obama was qualified. Indeed, I, anonymous blog poster, also think Obama is qualified to be president. I simply think that it requires severe cognitive dissonance to say
1. Obama is qualified and
2. Sarah Palin is unqualified to be VP - especially when you know little about Palin's ability to perform as a politician.

DCM in FL said...

JEREMY

you apparently only read the AIP platform, where they disguise the real intent with flowery 'states rights' language.

but just go onto their 'basic questions' link and you will see more of the red meat that drives their need to secede...

@ http://www.akip.org/faqs.html

-----------------------------------
sample:

QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS ABOUT ALASKAN INDEPENDENCE

Q: What is the Alaskan Independence Party?

A: An Alaskan political party whose members advocate a range of solutions to the conflicts between federal and local authority; from advocacy for state's rights, through a return to territorial status, all the way to complete independence and nationhood status for Alaska.

Q: If Alaska became independent, wouldn't we lose a lot of federal money?

A: No. If Alaska returned to territorial status, most federal money would still be available. If Alaska were to attain complete independence, its revenues from oil and other natural resources would far exceed the amounts currently received from the federal government, at our current level of resource utilization.

Q: If Alaska became independent, wouldn't we lose a lot of federal money?

A: No. If Alaska returned to territorial status, most federal money would still be available. If Alaska were to attain complete independence, its revenues from oil and other natural resources would far exceed the amounts currently received from the federal government, at our current level of resource utilization.

Q: If Alaska were independent, what would happen to my social security check, federal pension, or military retirement?

A: People receive these checks around the world, regardless of their place of residence. In most cases eligibility for such checks would not be effected by Alaskan independence.

Q: If Alaska became independent, would U.S. military bases leave?

A: The strategic location of Alaska would indicate that it would serve U.S. interests to maintain a presence in Alaska. The military are good neighbors. There would be no compelling reason for the military to leave Alaska.

Q: Didn't we vote for statehood already?

A: The vote for statehood was invalid because the people were not presented with the range of options available to them. Further, the federal government has since breached the contract for statehood on numerous occasions in over a dozen serious and substantial instances.

Q: Under independence, what would happen to all the federal controls and regulations?

A: We believe that controls should be exerted by the lowest possible governmental unit. The people of Alaska can better decide what controls need to be in place than can bureaucrats in Washington. Specific local regulation might be either more or less restrictive than current federal regulation. The point is that it will be our regulation, not Washington's.

Q: Would I lose my U.S. citizenship?

A: Depending on the form of independence, several forms of citizenship would be possible, including the retention of U.S. citizenship or dual citizenship. However, considering the moral, educational, and economic decay of the U.S., Alaskans' who hold themselves to a higher standard might very well decide to at least maintain an arm's length distance from a country in decline.
--------------------------------------
this is lunatic fringe stuff & Palin was a member 10 years ago until she started to accept patronage jobs from her cronies in the GOP

BTW - neither her husband or oldest son are registered as Republicans...

Pssst said...

@DCM

yeah, but Sarah will be packing heat since she is an NRA momma so no one would wanna mess with her in DC.


Yeah, I guess I shouldn't worry about it. When I said Palin wasn't ready, I was forgetting about the vast foreign policy experience she got from living near Siberia, plus her many years of domestic experience working at Wasilla's city hall.

LOL

x0lani said...

Don't you people ever sleep!?

Regardless, I think most Republicans would argue that she is "Ready on Day One" by virtue of her previous executive experience. Even though that experience could best be described as highly specialized and regional (small town mayor and low population state), it's not obvious that most Americans will think that far into it.

What I think will make most Americans uneasy about her is the speed at which negatives from her past are surfacing so soon after her selection: bridge to nowhere, secessionist Alaska Independence Party, Troopergate, pregnant 17-year-old daughter - all within days of her selection.

This clearly wouldn't have happened with someone who had been vetted out by experience in competitive national politics. We know much about McCain and Biden's pasts and nothing new has come up in recent memory.

What remains to be seen is whether this actually makes a difference. America still elected Bush Sr. though Quayle was thoroughly derided.

DCM in FL said...

HOSER

what kinda dumb games are you trying to play ?

you paste a post above that purports to quote me, and I said no such thing.

Admit you made a mistake, or prepare to be flamed if you did it intentionally...
----------------------------------------
hosertohoosier @ 3:49 AM said...

"DCM said,

Reagan was divisive (especially early on) and well-known, while Ford presided over a particularly radical period in American history, and was riding out the end of the unpopular Nixon's last term. I agree my argument is weak, but I think you miss it's point..."
---------------------------------------

I said no such thing. Are you an idiot or just an accidental jerk ???

Smitty said...

Thank you, Nate. I appreciate the various election-related topics you and Sean introduce. Amazing insights are available when reading through the responses.

As I've mentioned in other posts here, I am old. Yes, I remember the Cold War. Children were taught to drop under their desk on their knees, heads tucked down with arms wrapped up over heads. That was supposed to protect us from THE atomic bomb.

I watched the first American walk on the moon. National pride was at a high. We had beaten the Soviet Union to the moon.

I was sitting in French class when the principal suddenly spoke on the P.A. system and said President Kennedy had been shot in Texas. Prayer was allowed in schools in those days. The principal said a prayer.

Then the voice of Walter Cronkite came on, telling us, telling the nation, with his voice cracking, the details as the information became available. Every person in the school was crying.

We saw the assassination later on television. We saw LBJ sworn in on Air Force One...the photo you show.

What happened on 9-11 was terrible. The assassination of a President is worse...so, so much worse.

The Friday Gov. Palin was named the VP candidate, I posted on this site that I was offended on so many levels. To even nominate this untested, untried young woman is a crime, IMHO.

DCM in FL said...

SMITTY

nice testimonial. thank you

obsessed said...

On his myspace page, the future son-in-law whom Sarah Palin has made such a celebrity says he's "in a relationship" but "doesn't want kids".

Another casualty of banning sex education in the schools.

craigw5 said...

Excellent explanation of the dilemma, Nate. I think this is what David Brooks was trying to say in his NYTimes piece, today:

"What the Palin PIck Says"
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/02/opinion/02brooks.html?ref=opinion

DCM in FL said...

More on the A.I.P. [Alaskan Independence Party] of which Palin was a member & still supports-

- read their stated GOALS on the website @

http://www.akip.org/goals.html
--------------------------------------
"Goals

Until we as Alaskans receive our Ultimate Goal, the AIP will continue to strive to make Alaska a better place to live with less government interference in our everyday lives.

The Alaskan Independence Party's goal is the vote we were entitled to in 1958, one choice from among the following four alternatives:

1) Remain a Territory.
2) Become a separate and Independent Nation.
3) Accept Commonwealth status.
4) Become a State.

The call for this vote is in furtherance of the dream of the Alaskan Independence Party's founding father, Joe Vogler, which was for Alaskans to achieve independence under a minimal government, fully responsive to the people, promoting a peaceful and lawful means of resolving differences."
--------------------------------------
you be the judge, but this is secessionist talk NDA

p smith said...

This election is done. I thought the Palin choice would be good for McCain in the short term and damaging in the long term when her complete lack of experience came to light. I had no idea that McCain had trusted the vetting process to PeteKent.

Let's be quite clear. The stories about the 5th child and her daughter's pregnancy are froth and are not in themselves subjects that should be discussed. I also think criticism of Palin's views on sex-ed are not appropriate in this context. Sure, her daughter got into trouble. Shit happens, to all of us.

But what I do find shocking is that Palin would have agreed to run for VP in the knowledge that her teenage daughter is pregnant and is going to need all the love and care she can get. How can Palin perform that most important of roles from Washington? Worse that that, how can she put her own daughter in the media spotlight knowing full well that this was going to come out sooner or later. Palin's lack of judgment was in saying "Thanks but no thanks" when McCain offered her the job.

McCain's lack of judgment was in failing to vet her properly but worse than that, even if none of these personal stories had come to light, she simply does not have the experience to be VP and possibly president in the event of McCain's incapacity. By undercutting his principal line of attack on Obama in order to achieve some cheap applause from the far right wing and to make an insulting pandering play to disgruntled Hillary supporters, McCain has demonstrated at a stroke that he does not have the judgment or wisdom to be president. Period.

I have some sympathy for thinking republicans such as VA Con who have been left without a proper ticket for this general election. Not much sympathy but some.

USA Today has it 50-43 with polling done over the weekend when the media were giving Palin a free pass. Watch the figures tank.

x0lani said...

Come to think of it, this post needs some accompanying stats - something along the lines of average experience of winning and losing presidents and vice-presidents and average difference of experience between winning and losing presidents and vice-presidents for individual elections. This would substantiate or contradict Nate's hypothesis.

OzJohnnie said...

obsessed;

Another casualty of banning sex education in the schools.

Puuuullleeeeeese. Because no unwanted pregnancies ever occurred after a sex ed class in school. That's a smart argument. Keep with it.

DCM;

Keep pumping that AIP angle, because you know that will work. Little chance it will get MO's statements, not to mention JW's back on the table. Also smart.

Oz.

OzJohnnie said...

p smith;

But what I do find shocking is that Palin would have agreed to run for VP in the knowledge that her teenage daughter is pregnant and is going to need all the love and care she can get.

Yeah, keep pushing that Palin as a bad mother narrative. That will be really convincing to all the other mothers out there that have a job and a family. I mean, s

Sure they can have a regular job, but not VP. That's just too much for a woman with a family to handle.

Yeah. That's a winner. Explore it some more.

Oz.

mark said...

I have just had an epiphany. John "Maverick" McCain isn't crazy, he's brilliant. And he's about to pull of a plan 8 years in the making.

The year is 2000. John McCain and George W. Bush are competing for the Republican party nomination for President. Bush, with the support of the new party elite, orchestrates one of the most vicious smear campaigns in the history of politics to date. He drags John, Cindy and the rest of the McCain family through the mud, using lies and fear to secure his place at the head of the Republican ticket and eventually at the head of our nation.

McCain isn't stupid. He knows that Bush will be a colossal failure. So he bides his time. He makes nice with all involved and continues his career as the senior Senator from Arizona. Fast forward to 2007...

McCain is running again, only this time he actually has a chance. Once he sees his target in sight, he carefully adapts his message and position to appeal to the broadest cross-section of the Republican base. He clinches the nomination and sets in motion the final phase of his revenge against those who stabbed him in the back 8 years ago.

He's done an incredible job. When he's finished, the Republican party will be a laughing stock. He's got several of the same advisors on his campaign staff that supported Bush in 2000. He even hired the strategist that organized most of the brutal attacks against him during Bush's primary run. And they're all in position to take a nasty fall.

He's purposefully chosen the most inexperienced, underqualified and un-vetted running mates that he could have possibly found, from the most politically corrupt state in the country. No doubt she has skeletons, and when the media finds the thread and pulls, the campaign and the party will unravel around itself. All he has to do is wait.

Well played, Senator McCain. Revenge is a dish best served cold, and the people who gave no thought to savagely attacking your family in order to win are about to get a large helping.

Give Senator McCain back his dignity. Vote Obama/Biden.

hosertohoosier said...

games,

9 is hardly a sample that is likely to lend itself to statistical significance, especially since not all of the different causes of death are likely to apply to McCain. I am making an abstract argument, while you are making a half-assed regression from 9 data points. You might have done better if you knew something about any political system other than the US, but you have not. You have also ignored everything I said about first-term versus second term presidencies.

There is some probability that John McCain will die, given history, assassination and illness are most likely, though he may have to resign in disgrace.

Is McCain likely to be assassinated? No. He is one of the most moderate presidential candidates in past decades, and does not have high "very unfavourables" or high "very favourables". There is no particular issue on which he is hated, and presidential security has prevented a single noteworthy attack for the past 27 or so years.

The average VP tenure for assassinated presidents is 368 days.

Is McCain likely to resign in disgrace?

It has only happened once, plus two presidents were impeached unsuccessfully. Even if McCain was found guilty of something, he could probably ride it out for at least some time - Bush has done so with approval ratings lower than Nixon.

Is McCain likely to die in office from some sort of illness? Yes, this is plausible. But what illness does he have? Cancer. None of the deaths you list involve cancer, rather they involve other ailments, some of which are no longer relevant.

William Henry Harrison died of pneumonia, contracted when giving his overly long inaugural address, aggravated by poor medical help. Not only would modern doctors have been able to save McCain, I also believe McCain will not give an especially long address, because sleeping reporters are rather a bad backdrop to the launch of any presidency.

Taylor died of something like food poisoning - his death is mysterious, but appears to be linked to something he ate. Something, I will add, that wouldn't pass muster with today's health standards.

Warren Harding died of a heart attack, while FDR had a cerebral hemorrhage (maybe we should make "old man" and "brain aneurysm" attacks on Biden). Neither of these are likely to occur to McCain, who is in reasonably good shape on that front.

So what about cancer, and McCain's cancer in particular.

There is a 34% of dying within 10 years, and a 40% chance McCain's cancer will go into remission.
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1779596,00.html

McCain's medical records show that he is cancer free right now, and other factors, such as the quality of his medical care, and his relative health in other regards probably reduce his chance of remission.

So - if anybody has better numbers please contribute them - but if people in remission (which McCain is not) have a mean life expectancy of say 5 years (I am assuming there is a normal distribution of melanoma remission deaths), and a standard deviation of 1 years, the chances of McCain dying in his first 3 years in office is about 16% by Chebysheff's theorem.

So IF McCain is in remission RIGHT NOW, the chance of him dying within three years from cancer is about 6.4%.

Obviously I would like to have actual numbers about the mean life expectancy with melanoma, and the standard deviation, which is just as important. Without that data, however, it is hard to make the claim that McCain is surely on death's door, and fairly modest/reasonable expectations suggest if McCain dies, Palin will have ~3 years of experience as VP.

DCM in FL said...

OBSESSED

so Levi & Bristol were about to be exposed by the Enquirer today, so McCain dropped the news first on Monday as the storm hit in NO...

full story @ http://www.radaronline.com/exclusives/2008/09/palin-daughters-babydaddy-some-dude-named-levi-reports-enqui.php?201

[for inquiring minds]

some excerpts:

'Baby Drama'

'Palin Daughter's Babydaddy: Some Dude Named Levi, Reports Enquirer'

"Radar has also learned that the father of Bristol's child, as well as her soon-to-be-husband, is a 17-year-old hockey player named Levi Johnston.

Images from what appears to be Johnston's sister's MySpace page were suddenly made private today; you can see many of them [here].

The Enquirer has seemingly been on the pregnancy case all weekend, going so far as to ID Johnston and get comment from his parents. Rather than let the tabloid break the story, however, McCain's campaign decided to force Palin into releasing the details."

[and]

"UPDATE: The New York Daily News has more, as does the New York Post, which mentions this gem:

On his MySpace page, Johnston boasts, "I'm a f - - -in' redneck" who likes to snowboard and ride dirt bikes.

"But I live to play hockey. I like to go camping and hang out with the boys, do some fishing, shoot some s- - - and just f - - -in' chillin' I guess."

"Ya f - - - with me I'll kick [your] ass," he added.

He also claims to be "in a relationship," but states, "I don't want kids." "

FWIW

markymark said...

Recent GOP VP picks vs recent Democratic VP picks have tended to show a very different idea of what the office is for.
McCain himself 8 years ago said that the VPs job was to check on the presidents health and to go to third world dictators funerals. Republicans tend to have had a more patronising attitude to the office and have tended to pick a VP to win the election, I would add Cheney excepted. Think about it, Jack Kemp, Dan Quayle, George HW Bush, Spiro Agnew, Henry Cabot Lodge, you could even add the 1952 Richard Nixon to that list. I left off Bob Dole in '76, more because he had Washington experience than anything else, althogh I am sure the fact that he was from a heartland state didn't harm his chances.

Now the Democrats in the same time have picked people like John Edwards, Joe Lieberman (eeck sorry, but he was at least experienced!), Al Gore, Lloyd Bentsen, Walter Mondale, Ed Muskie, Hubert Humphrey, and Lyndon Johnson. I left of geraldine Ferraro because I thknk she may have been an election day pick rather than an in office pick and the Shriver/Eagletonmess in 1972 because the McGovern campaign was a mess anyway. Now look back at the list of VP candidates from the Democratic Party. Ignore Edwards and Lieberman for a moment, and all the other candidates have either won the party's nomination for President or served in the cabinet later on, in high profile positions.

Typically it seems the Democrats have looked for quality people who can serve the government and take over if necesary. Mondale and Gore were given significant responsibility by Carter and Clinton. Of hte Republican nominees for VP since 1952 only 3 received there party's nomination for President, and none served in the cabinet subsequent to nomination (Kemp already had) unless they made it to being VP.

I think Nate is spot on by the way, people want a reassuring VP figure, because the moment they take over the presidency is going to be a moment of national emergency. Also I think they don't want to have to get to know there President. People have been spending months getting to know Obama, they have spent 3 days learning about Palin, and none of what we have learned so far seems to be any significant policy or initiative she has taken, save maybe for a flip flop on the so called bridge to nowhere. For a so called 'experienced' governor that seems a bit strange to me.

obsessed said...

oz:

What part of these kids not understanding the risks of unprotected sex are you having trouble understanding?

Smitty said...

Thanks, DCM. Hang in there and keep up the good fight. The spinmasters are working hard tonight, aren't they?!

OzJohnnie said...

FWIW?

Obviously you think it's worth something. Let me guess:

1. Finally the Enquirer is working for us! Yeah!

2. Just more evidence he's a country hick, and so is everyone that knows him.

Yup, you can't help it. No gutter is too vile. McCain probably won't thank you for his victory, but he should.

Oz.

obsessed said...

"Ya f - - - with me I'll kick [your] ass," he added.

At least he's a Republican.

obsessed said...

Not to be on-topic or anything, but will Sunday be included in tomorrow's Rasmussen and Gallup tracking polls or do we have to wait til Tuesday to see how much John McCain is going to have to thank us for his victory?

OzJohnnie said...

obsessed;

There is no part I don't understand. Your genuine concern is appreciated, I'm sure.

Their understanding or not has no relevance on Palin's suitability for election, other than the dirt value. What part of that do you not understand? For my part, I appreciate your lack of understanding because it will cause BO to lose.

Your support for sex ed seems to indicate you know that sex ed decreases the rate of teenage pregnancy. Is that true? Maybe you should find out. (btw, we know that Palin supports abstinence, but do we know that the town high school didn't/doesn't have a sex ed program? Oh, how stupid not to think of that...)

So there is no part I fail to understand about sex ed. The real issue that I'm focused on, however, is that you fail to understand how detrimental all this is to your own cause. And I take great delight in the fact that me telling you it is detrimental only eggs you on to greater heights of stupidity.

Oz.

DCM in FL said...

OK, admit it.

you want to see the pictures of the BF...

@ http://cajunboy.tumblr.com/

but the strange thing is that besides the BF & his sister, both Sarah Palin & Bristol are also in the pictures WITH baby Trigg...

and the BF's sister calls Sarah her "mommy in law" and refers to Trigg as "my new baby brother, TriggyBear:) Most adorable little man ever”

man this is just so very weird...

I swear there is a picture with Sarah Palin too !!!

@ http://cajunboy.tumblr.com/

or else it is a photoshop scam ???

NJ_Moderate said...

It's nice to have an experienced VP, but, come on Nate, Obama is currently the least experienced of the four. A vastly inexperienced presidential candidate is worse than a vastly inexperienced VICE-PRESIDENTIAL candidate.

OzJohnnie said...

We'll see you guys tomorrow. I'm off to beat the kids before I put them to bed, like all good conservatives do.

NJ_Moderate said...

I swear that this is a Rovian plot to get the Democrats to bash her experience which will only redound to double and triple effect on Obama. This line of attack from his campaign is ludicrous and it is going to blow up in his face.

Smitty said...

I've heard a photo is worth a thousand words. Putting the LBJ/Air Force One photo in an ad would do wonders to shake my generation back to reality.

To Oz - you may be correct regarding some demographics. On the other hand, there are other demographics that will flee the GOP overnight.

obsessed said...

To test Oz's theory - is there anyone here who changed allegiance from Obama to McCain as a result of me saying that Sarah Palin is a terrible mother for:

1) hypocritical values and ideas that led to her daughter having unprotected sex

2) accepting a nomination that she knew would make her daughter a household name

Smitty said...

NJ_Moderate - the Obama campaign has nothing to do with "this kind of attack", if that is what who meant. Internet bloggers do not represent the campaign or the candidate.

obsessed said...

Putting the LBJ/Air Force One photo in an ad would do wonders to shake my generation back to reality.

I was 7 when I saw that photo and it's remained burned in my brain ever since.

As you say, a picture is worth a thousand words and that one photo is more damning to McCain than a thousand scandals.

DCM in FL said...

back to polling.

this just out this morning:

CNN: CNN Poll of polls:

Obama holds slim lead

Roughly nine weeks before Election Day, a new CNN poll of polls shows Barack Obama holding a five point lead over John McCain.

Only four days after Obama’s acceptance speech and three days after McCain’s pick of Sarah Palin as his running mate, Obama is now ahead of McCain, 49 to 44 percent.
-----------------------------------

x0lani said...

obsessed,

You've made me so angry, I've decided to write-in Fidel Castro!!

Smitty said...

obsessed, I suspect anyone who comes to this site, particularly those who post, are firmly committed to one candidate.

It is just my opinion, of course, but I don't think debating Palin issues here does anything except give the spinmasters (who read this site) more ideas on how to twist and tweak the words we are all going to hear on the TV.

NJ_Moderate said...

Will see if Obama's campaign does. Attacks were carried out against Clinton in the same manner and he was forced to either recant or remove the staffer from his campaign. The similarities are striking so maybe it is someone not related to his campaign or maybe it is his modus operandi. However, women in this area are p***ed off at the Obama campaign right now and, going by the number of lawn signs, his support has declined very noticeably in this very, very blue area.

DCM in FL said...

oops, forgot to provide the link for that lousy new CNN Poll of Polls:

@ http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/01/cnn-poll-of-polls-obama-holds-slim-lead/
--------------------------------------
CNN’s previous poll of polls, released August 24, showed Obama leading McCain by four points, 46 to 42 percent.

“Any bounce Obama might have received out of his party’s convention appears to have largely negated by McCain’s surprise selection of Gov. Palin as his running mate,” said CNN Political Editor Mark Preston. “This race has been close all along, and is unlikely to change.”

The three polls included in CNN’s latest national survey average were conducted by CBS, CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, and Gallup. They were each conducted from August 29 to 31.

>The poll of polls does not have a margin of error<

hosertohoosier said...

DCM,

I think it is pretty obvious that I was responding to you and quoted you accidentally. But by all means, flame me.

Markymark,

Good analysis, but that analysis doesn't support your final conclusion that Nate is right - since many of the Republicans that picked lightweights went on to win elections.

I think it may be that Republicans tend to nominate candidates with strong (whether deserved) national security credentials, or who were perceived as strong leaders, and don't need to bolster their credibility on that front. The one clear exception - George W. Bush, picked Cheney, to make up for his own deficits. They pick VP's to appeal to one group or another, or to pick up a state.

The reverse goes for the Democrats - except for Kerry. The Dems usually have strength on domestic issues - "change", "I feel your pain". They tend to lose out on "is a strong leader", in part because of this. As such they tend to pick VP's with experience - LBJ, Humphrey, Muskie, Mondale, Bentson, Gore, Lieberman and Biden fit this category.

There are a few exceptions - one, Eagleton/Shriver was more the result of the worst presidential campaign in the 20th century. Ferraro was a pander by a candidate badly losing. John Kerry picked Edwards because he figured his war hero thing would enable him to surely beat Bush in the "strong leader" category (unfortunately the voters didn't see it that way), and picked the biggest lightweight to run on a Dem ticket since Shriver (Edwards was a one-term senator, who had been running for president since 2002).

What do VP experience matchups tell us (very little)?

Edwards vs. Cheney (Cheney clearly wins on experience, and Bush won in 2004)
XP WINS!

Lieberman vs. Cheney (hard to say - probably leans Cheney, but then it is hard to say who won the 2000 election).
XP WINS, OR LOSES DEPENDING UPON RECOUNTS, ABSENTEE BALLOTS!

Kemp vs. Gore (both had similar lengths of tenure in office, but Gore's were clearly more productive. So leans Gore, and Gore won).

XP kinda wins

Quayle vs. Gore (laugh as you might, but Quayle was more experienced than Gore. He had been a VP, senator and congressman, while Gore had been the latter two - both had very similar tenures in office, but Quayle's experience was more varied and... he lost)

XP kinda loses (but the nation wins)

Bentson vs. Quayle (Bentson was clearly more qualified and experienced, and... he lost badly).

XP LOSES! But the nation gets... Where's Dan Quayle, the finest Where's Waldo parody around.

George H W. Bush vs. Ferraro (Clearly the resume candidate won here, but while Bush's claim to have "kicked a little ass" in the debates didn't show up in the polls, Reagan-Bush sure shellacked the hell out of Mondale-Ferraro).

XP WINS!

Mondale vs. Bush (I think this one leans Mondale - Bush had been a congressman briefly, director of the CIA briefly and ambassador to China briefly, while Mondale had been a senator for a fair while, and VP for a term).

XP LOSES!

Shriver/Eagleton vs. Agnew (Eagleton had little experience, Shriver had less - ie. none, so Agnew a 2-year governor then VP wins, despite the nattering nabobs of negativism)

XP wins!

Muskie vs Agnew (Ed Muskie was clearly more experienced than Agnew, and... he lost)

XP LOSES!

Humphrey vs Miller (Humphrey clearly wins in terms of quality and breadth of experience, but neither does too badly... HHH is on the winning ticket this time)

XP wins!

Cabot Lodge vs. LBJ (I would call this one battle of the titans. It helps my point that inexperienced/young candidates pick old geezers too. Lodge and LBJ had long terms in office going back to the mid 30's. Lodge had experience as ambassador to the UN as well, while LBJ had more high level congressional experience. I will call this one a tie, and anyhow the 1960 election itself was practically a tie)

ITS A TIE, DEPENDING UPON HOW MANY DEAD PEOPLE VOTED IN CHICAGO, AND HOW MANY COWS IN TEXAS.

Wins for the more experienced VP: 5

Losses for the more experienced VP: 4

Ties: 2

Smitty said...

It is NOT him, NJ_Moderate. He simply is not wired that way.

Matthew said...

What I think is both wrong and bad is that issues are being made out of the wrong things.

1. Her daughter got pregnant---fairly irrelevant to her ability to govern. It might show some hypocrisy, but I think most people would agree that anyone's family can do things they wouldn't like.
Also, I personally think it is offensive to dig into her personal business.

2. Her husband's drunk driving arrest--- that her husband made a bad decision at the age of 22 doesn't really impact her ability to be vice-president, or president.

3. Troopergate: okay, this is an actual scandal. Although, I don't know the details of it, and unbiased accounts of what happen are probably as hard to find as bars holding "George W Bush appreciation night" in the Castro.

But then we come to

4. Membership in the Alaska Independence Party: I am not saying it is wrong to belong to a party that (seemingly---again, if anyone has any unbiased information on what the AIP is about, I want to know1) advocates succession. It is just that if you do hold that viewpoint, you probably shouldn't be president. I have lots of friends who are (perhaps half-jokingly) Cascadian separatists. But obviously those friends wouldn't even be running for state rep on a democratic ticket! Let alone being considered as the Vice/President.

So, in short...digging up second degree dirt on Palin's personal life is cheap and meaningless. Pointing out that she has a political stance that seems anathema to a roll in the federal government is not, and should be the real focus.

Smitty said...

Let the press argue that stuff. When Obama was "shiny, new" they did it. She is "shiny, new" and will get her turn.

Obama supporters, go here, Please!

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/1/21286/24889/30/582729

Pssst said...

@hosertohoosier

Is McCain likely to be assassinated? No. He is one of the most moderate presidential candidates in past decades, and does not have high "very unfavourables" or high "very favourables". There is no particular issue on which he is hated, and presidential security has prevented a single noteworthy attack for the past 27 or so years.

First time I've ever been lectured on American politics by someone who spells "favor" with a "u"... ;-) j/k

Seriously though, in a nation of 300 million people with easy access to guns, all it takes is one psychopath who is insane enough and brainy enough to kill the president. Reagan wasn't shot because of his politics --- he was shot because a crazy man thought that killing a president would impress Jodie Foster. His first target was Jimmy Carter, but Carter left office.

Major assassination attempts may not happen very often, but they do happen, and the potential consequences of an alarmingly unprepared VP stepping up at a moment of major crisis are terrible to imagine. I don't see any reason to take a chance on a VP who is so laughably unready when there are so many qualified candidates to choose from... And I think McCain's willingness to take that chance shows an appalling lack of concern for our country's safety.

hosertohoosier said...

Smitty,

The Alaska independence party is not the fringe party folks are suggesting it is. It won the 1990 election, running a former Republican governor. - largely because the actual Republican was too liberal on abortion and capital punishment for Republicans. So the CONTEXT of Palin's support was that she was supporting the main conservative vehicle in Alaska in an election cycle where the Republicans were likely to lose.

From wikipedia:

"Hickel had been one of the most influential historical proponents of Alaska statehood and never endorsed the AIP's secessionism, prompting some party faithful to petition for his recall. Completing his term as Governor, he rejoined the Republican Party in April 1994."

Sarah Palin was at that convention, and given that Hickel supported her run for governor, I am pretty sure she was not for recall. Indeed, she left the AIP in 1996. The "she is an Alaska secessionist" thing is a ridiculous claim.

Coming from an actual multi-party system, politicians pander to other parties all the time for a variety of reasons. Palin probably wanted AIP folks to back her bid for re-election, instead of hopelessly running their own candidate.

Just for fun though, I'd like to run a crappy smear based on 5 seconds of research myself.

In the 1980's, Obama was a member of ACORN.

ACORN endorsed Jesse Jackson for president.

In 2008, Jesse Jackson expressed support for cutting Obama's nuts off.

Therefore, Obama supports self-castration.

Obama: does he really have the balls to be president?

I'm John McCain, and I approve this message. And also, I have nuts... and possibly am nuts...

mikewpbfl said...

Harry S. Truman.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_S._Truman

Trumans real Senate experience started in his second term.

Scroll down to the Truman commission.

Even though he had a term under his belt much of his political exp could easily be spun to resemble Palins.

FWIW Im a life long GOP'er.
Still dont fuck with Truman.

hosertohoosier said...

PS: want the real attack on Sarah Palin? She is extremely conservative. The same things that make the base love her, are mostly anathema to the general public - like 80-20 anathema.

Low-blow internet attacks can backfire (1. assume for a second you don't hate all Republicans virulently. 2. does the person making the attack sound like a complete jackass for making it. 3. would you give that person any credibility), and the experience argument cuts both ways. Anyhow, experience is rarely decisive in elections (the less experienced presidential candidate often wins - are you telling me Obama should run Hillary Clinton's campaign AGAINST McCain?).

But no matter what you think of Palin's personal characteristics, her views will lose her the election.

PeteKent said...

Nate, You are getting really far a field here. Your posting of the LBJ swearing in is transparent emotional appeal and is kind of heavy handed.

If you want to convince use subtlely.

The notion of dismissing Sarah Plain as simply someone you would rather have a beer (or a mooseburger) with is simply dismissive of her candidacy and smacks of ignorance and the lack of an open mind.

Sarah Palin will more than hold her own in debates as she proved in her excellent interview with Maria Bartelromo last week.

This lady is no Dan Quail and due to McCain's perspicatity in choosing her we now have a new front runner to be the next woman President.

Any notion that she lacks expereince, continues to boomerang back on Obama who served 144 days int he Senate when he decided he was ready to lead.

Why is it that Nate and the media and the left wing Amen corner is unwilling to recognize that Obama is not the only potential prodigy in this race.

In a short while Palin came from no where and stood up to the Repbulican establishment in her state and beat it; she has record approval rating in AK. Obama has some speeches she has made, has supported infanticide, called iran a "tiny" country, oppsed the Surge strategy that made victory in Iraq posible, is a cog in the daley machine in Chicago, and is for unilateral nuclear disarmament and high taxes.

Obama is the weaker of the two candidates on paper.

markymark said...

hosertohoosier,

I agree in a way that my analysis doesn't support my conclusion, but I am not sure actually that the two are connected. I thnk almost everyone votes top of the ticket. I don't think many people will comne out in November and say 'You know I was going to vote for McCain, but I just don't want Palin to be VP'.

My point was more to do with each party's concept of the job. As such the Democratic Party has been better at nominating people who could step up and be President.

hosertohoosier said...

Pssst,

Keep the whole "u" thing on the down-low. Thus far I have been passing as a McCain-bot, so nobody has guessed at my true goal: to get the Americans to elect a government so horrid, they will realize they can't effectively govern themselves, and so will return the country to its rightful British owners.

QEII '08!

Isotopeblue said...

Nate - All true. However, I feel these blatantly partisan posts are undermining your credibility and, frankly, making the site less interesting. Maybe think about starting a separate blog for them?

I don't come here to read yet another guy I agree with. I come here to read about an excellent econometrician applying cool statistical tools to a problem I care deeply about.

hosertohoosier said...

markymark,

Okay, at any rate I like your analysis, though you probably give the Republicans short shrift. You are definitely right that people vote top of the ticket - just look at this forum. Maybe one _____ thinks the Palin pick was bad, and I haven't seen any Obamabots take that position.

What would be a catchy name for an inveterate McCain supporter, that hopefully includes Mc.

McClone? McBot? McTron?

Dan said...

Due respect Nate, and I love your site, but the history doesn't bear that out. There have been quite a few vice presidential candidates with little or no experience, moreso even than presidents with little or no experience:

John C. Breckinridge (1856)
Chester A. Arthur (1880)
Whitelaw Reid (1892)
Arthur Sewell (1896)
Garret Hobart (1896)
John W. Kern (1908)
Nicholas Butler (1912)
Frank Knox (1936)
Geraldine Ferraro (1984)

Is there a similar list of presidents and presidential candidates? I don't think there is.

C.S.Strowbridge said...

"Due respect Nate, and I love your site, but the history doesn't bear that out. There have been quite a few vice presidential candidates with little or no experience, moreso even than presidents with little or no experience"

How many on that list of your lost?

Rhys said...

"I swear that this is a Rovian plot to get the Democrats to bash her experience which will only redound to double and triple effect on Obama."

You're not 'swearing', you're dreaming, because you'd love that to happen and it won't.

"This line of attack from his campaign is ludicrous and it is going to blow up in his face."

There IS no 'line of attack' from his campaign. Stop lying.

Juris said...

Interesting post, Nate. Again never mind those who want you to be just a numbers guy.

The image you showed is exactly the one that first comes to my mind when I think of presidential succession in an emergency. So does LBJ's comment some monthe later that "we're all on the same airplane now, and I'm the pilot."

The image that comes to my mind next is that of the current, very experienced vice president. Now Dick is older than W. His politics were pretty much known, and he'd held major administative roles as well as served in Congress. And look where it got us? I think when people are done with the "worst president in history" awards, Cheney would be an obvious nomineee as "worst VP in history."

Age and experience are no guarantees of leadership skills or, more generally, values. The vision thing is very important I would say for both presidents and the vice presidents.

haasd said...

wow- I couldn't disagree any more. The president needs to be ready from day 1 and someone wanting on the job training is absolutely ridiculous. For a VP its simply not a problem to need to get experience while on the job. VP almost by definition to me is someone who just isn't ready for the top spot yet but who will be in the future as they get more experience from being VP.

From your post you seem to think that voters care about experience for the VP more than the president? Thats just breathtakingly far from my own expectation.

haasd said...

And honestly- I do think this site may have just crossed the line from straight analysis to leftwing blog. I thought of this site as Nate just trying to objectively analyze the pools to give the most accurate prediction possible- now it just feels like he is trying to push out the ideas that he thinks would most help the democrats in this election. Not that there is anything wrong with that- its just not what I expected from this site.

Graham said...

Membership in a secessionist political party is simply a deal-breaker for the national ticket, period.

What if Obama were exposed as having belonged to a Hawaiian secessionist group? He would already have been asked to withdraw.

I want Obama to win the election, and think he'd have a better chance if he keeps this joke of a running mate. But it's simply too risky for the country. McCain *might* win, after all. Lots of things can happen. And we can't afford a President Palin. That would be much, much scarier than Bush.

LAT said...

from Wasilla a detailed report about Palin from the people who know her.

http://www.andrys.com/palin-kilkenny.html

Her time as Mayor which was not vetted (even according to the vetter) is really coming apart.

SelenesMom said...

I'm appalled at the way she is treating her daughter.

We are talking about a 17-year-old KID who should be her mom's first priority under the circumstances.

Who is this lady to go out yelling to the world about her child's pregnancy instead of doing what 99% of normal women would do and withdrawing from the spotlight to protect her kid and her kid's future kid?

Who is this lady to guarantee that her kid and grandkid are going to spend their lives as pub trivia answers?

I doubt the kid's father, assuming he's even owned up to being the father, is on board with this shotgun wedding in the glare of world publicity idea.

I mean, YUK. YUK YUK and YUK.

eve said...

Herbert opinion:
She was picked for a reason.

"Here’s the deal: Palin is the latest G.O.P. distraction. She’s meant to shift attention away from the real issue of this campaign — the awful state of the nation after eight years of Republican rule."

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/02/opinion/02herbert.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

Herunar said...

The fact is that reality has a liberal bias. That isn't to say there aren't bullshit from the liberal side, but this year facts are leaning liberal, which is why highly-educated voters and blogs like this tend to be liberal. If you don't like this, too bad.

Rhys said...

"And honestly- I do think this site may have just crossed the line from straight analysis to leftwing blog. "

Honestly -- you're full of shit.

Only someone with his head completely up his ass could avoid noticing what Nate has very appropriately pointed out about McCain's selfish and reckless VP choice.

haasd said...

herunar- you think its reality that voters care more about the VP's experience level than they do the presidents? Like I said- this has moved from objective analysis into left wing spin to me. I am not at all a McCain supporter but this is just incredibly far from reality in my book.

Gramatrick said...

Did anyone read Howard Wolfson's column about how he's coming over to Obama?

What I thought was so interesting was the way he reinforced how insular the campaign life is. They had no real sense about what was happening "out there" no way to put it in a broader context.

I think McCain is only seeing the dollars and hearing the praises from the evangelic crowd and he really isn't understanding how appalled a large swathe of Americans are.

Toby said...

RE: http://www.andrys.com/palin-kilkenny.html

Dear Anne Kilkenny,

Will you be voting McCain-Palin then?

eve said...

Intrade has a contract now on Palin remaining McCain's choice.

"Sarah Palin to be withdrawn as Republican VP nominee before 2008 presidential election"

last price is 15

Rhys said...

haasd -- Nate is an analyst. Not a robot.

Sedi said...

The lack of perspective here is stunning. Nate's point is that experience is important in a VP for reasons that most of us intuitively get but couldn't necessarily articulate. While it is true that some VPs in the past haven't been so stellar, they also weren't running with a 72-year-old. We'll see how the Palin pick influences the polls next week (the ones this week won't be worth much), but I would be surprised if most independent voters find her lack of experience in national politics concerning. It's not the number of years, it's familiarity with and command of the issues. If she can demonstrate those very clearly, she'll probably be viewed as acceptable by most undecideds. If not...

For those of you who complain about these type of posts by Nate, I have two words: SHUT UP!!!!
If you don't like reading the political analysis, then don't read it. He clearly titles each post, and you have every right to wait until the "Today's Polls" posts come out and only read those. It's a different matter if commentators hijack a polling thread -- I'm happy to back you up for defending those threads from excessive partisan spin. That isn't the situation here.

It makes you look like a real idiot to whine about Nate making posts about politics on HIS OWN SITE! You don't have to come here if you don't want to. Zeesh. It's like going to a well-known gay bar and then complaining about the lack of single women...

Mule Rider said...

No longer come on here for any insightful knowledge or lively discourse. Just to get a good laugh while simultaneously seeing how big of a joke Nate's work now is and how big a steaming pile of dog shit he has become. And to watch the liberal maggots twist in their own feces. It's all so funny!!

moondancer said...

I am part of a plurality that thinks John McCain is unfit for the presidency. Why would I care if his VP is?

Brad said...

AHHH, the joy of seeing a conservative lose his mind in the morning, thanks Mulerider, this will be a good day!

Nate - keep up the great work. We need to use the internet like the repubs use AM radio (who the hell listens to AM radio anymore - oh, non-thinkers, dittoheads, got it!). QWe need to use to vet ideas and arguments for our candidate, and we need to own it going forward like the repubs own old media.

As for your work, nothing has changed in the underlying model so what are these righties so mad about?

eve said...

toby: very interesting link


here it is again folks:

http://www.andrys.com/palin-kilkenny.html

Brad said...

Nate-

You and Obama make me proud to be a U of Chicago grad again, and that was no easy feat!

hosertohoosier said...

Herunar,

that statement is utterly false - and reflects the pretentious belief that your preferred trade-offs on basic values are better than those made by others. Insofar as you are your own standard of justice and truth, I suppose you are correct in a really facile way.

Is there a "correct" answer to "when does life begin" (or when does a human become morally relevant)?

Is there a "correct" way to balance equality, economic growth, and liberty?

Is there a "correct" view on when a war is a just war?

Left and right are about VALUES, not factual beliefs. People can arrive at those values in a number of ways, but it is hardly fair to say that one set of values is more correct.

Your notion that highly educated voters are a good standard of who votes for more "truth" also needs to be looked at with scrutiny. One of the reasons I love the blog stuffwhitepeoplelike, is because it stereotypes the educated upper middle class of which I am a member, and its values - instead of treating that as the default. Educated people have values that they have been inculcated with, and material interests they develop over time.

Oh, and they make bad choices too.

College graduates (post-grad and non) voted for Bush. Twice (2004 was close). They voted for Carter in 1976. In 1988 they voted for Bush Sr., and were fairly close in 1992.

The only way in which truth has a liberal bias is insofar as the Republicans are the incumbents, and therefore have a record of untruths - some of which are the usual misstatements of a government, while others do reflect that THESE conservatives are especially dishonest. I would hardly say that this has anything to do with conservatism in general.

There is also an issue dimension to BS. Conservatives have undeserved street cred on national security - somehow Bush was seen as a great strong leader, while Gore, who served in Vietnam and had real foreign policy experience (and a hawkish voting record) was not.

The left, however, likes to play fast and loose with facts on the economy.

-During this "recession" growth was 3.3% last quarter.

-Unemployment is up a bit, but clearly this is part of the ordinary business cycle. Unemployment remains lower than at any point since the early 70's (apart from a few years of Clinton's administration).
http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet

-Bush was unfairly blamed for the popping of a bubble that clearly started under Clinton's watch.

-Productivity growth (the best long-term indicator of economic health according to Paul Krugman, before he became a party hack) is faster than under any president since Nixon.

http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet

Yes it beats Clinton...
Productivity growth under Clinton:+17.7%
Bush (assuming 2.4% growth continues as projected for 2008: +18.4%

http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet

Average wage growth of production workers has been robust, and includes some of the highest ever numbers, especially in the last two years. Bush outperforms virtually all presidents on this count.

Or maybe you have heard of dramatic inflation - the numbers suggest that the present is well within the post-1980 (and post de-politicization of the federal reserve) norms. Anyhow, Greenspan/Bernanke are the guys to answer for that.

(I just found out my BLS links don't work as I intended - go to the BLS home page: www.bls.gov and click on the historical time series thing on the right of the wage - with a dinosaur).

Liberals are just as complicit as conservatives in misrepresenting things, though they focus on the economy. Conservatives do not respond in kind, because they fear alienating working class swing voters. Likewise, liberals are usually more factually accurate when it comes to international policy, however, they don't challenge conservatives, because they fear being painted as soft on [enemy of the week].

Mule Rider said...

Brad,

Joke's on you ass. I haven't lost my mind at all. Just know where to find a good laugh - right here watching liberals twitch and fidget...and wallow in hate and filth.

Glad to see you are every bit the douche I was talking about. I bet you can't even go in public for people pointing and laughing at you. That's why you hide in here and circle jerk to "liberal-analysis" porn.

It's so funny knowing you even exist and my confidence is boosted ever so slightly knowing there's one more pile of trash wandering around without a clue in this world. Gotta go now. Can't sit and point and laugh at you all day. Some of us actually have a job.

Nate,

Just eat shit and choke on it.

tero said...

This reminds me of that paramedic scene in "There is something about Mary".

Boys, we got a bleeder. McCain is losing credibility and gravitas with every hour this woman generates headlines that clash with his core theme of competence. Palin will continue sapping him of vitality all this week and the next - we all know the big stories are being prepped for next weekend by newspapers and magazines.

Here's the kicker - women were cold towards her already before the scandals started breaking out. She did not connect with female voters. She is now likely to actually expand the gender chasm, which was already in mid-teens.

I think the palpable anxiety of conservative posters on this site is flop sweat. We got a bleeder, boys.

Mule Rider said...

hosertohoosier,

Great post. You hit the nail on the head.

Michael said...

Guys, Mule Rider isn't a "conservative" or a "liberal." He just really, really wants to suck Nate off, and is really, really angry that he'll never get to.

It's pretty standard, actually.

Brad said...

Tero-

Perfect call. VC gave up on McCan't yesterday (too bad, he was fun), and now Mulerider is having the realization of a the perfect loss form in his head.

Poor repubs, now they now how we feel when we have had to listen to Hannity and Ann Coulter lie all these years.

OzJohnnie said...

One last post before I go to bed. Something to let you twist as the slow sinking feeling sets in as you watch the RNC...

Feast on the latest revelation about Slow Joe Biden thanks to the Hartford Courant:

Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Biden received five student draft deferments during the Vietnam War, the same number of deferments received by Vice President Dick Cheney, and later was disqualified from service because of asthma as a teenager.

And you know what? I believe that BO fully vetted Slow Joe and he still picked him. Because McCain had BO running scared on foreign policy and experience and Slow Joe was the best the Dems had to offer. BO had to take a guy that makes the entire meme of Kerry '04 look a joke. Ha! "Dems: Consistently Inconsistent." Does it fly as a slogan?

And guess what the shift in the election is to now? Country first: energy independence & lower taxes. How's BO gonna respond to that? But, uh, I, uh, you know, organized $15 million in, uh, payments for low-income, uh, housing with my good friend, uh, Ton... uh, with upstanding community representatives.

Have a good morning, kiddies. I'll be sleeping soundly.

Oz.

Mule Rider said...

[see Michael's comment]

Wow! And I'm the one who has de-railed?

You guys are such dickbags and don't even realize it. That's the best part.

I'm getting twice the laughs today. Keep 'em coming you brainless imps.

Smitty said...

Hoser - please select the name of a poster who actually smears rather than type the first name that comes to mind.

Thanks!

Why do some of you come on here, read the comments, then complain? Read the data and move on without expanding the comments! You are adults - monitor your own reading.

OzJohnnie said...

michael;

Guys, Mule Rider isn't a "conservative" or a "liberal." He just really, really wants to suck Nate off, and is really, really angry that he'll never get to.

Nice gay baiting. Very upstanding. Add that the list of things I wish you guys would do more of.

Happy Days are here again...!!

Oz.

Rhys said...

"Have a good morning, kiddies. I'll be sleeping soundly."

You started sleeping soundly when you began posting.

Smitty said...

Oz,

You've been saying you were going to sign off and go to sleep for hours. I mean, what's the rush?

DanOregon said...

LBJ wasn't the image I had in mind - it was the steps of the Capitol with Ike and Nixon looking on and Kennedy, of Carter looking on as Reagan was sworn in. Perhaps the strongest symbol of our democracy is one party giving way to another with respect.
That said, I'm more concerned with McCain's idea of "vetting" and rolling out a veep candidate. If he dumped all the stuff he allegedly knew about Palin at the jump I would have had less of a problem with his candidacy. I guess we'll see tonight when Palin gets the Leno-Letterman-Kimmell-O'Brien-Ferguson-Colbert-Stewart treatment. Depending on how people respond - this thing could be done by Wednesday.

Brad said...

Oz-

Your arguments ring so hollow, even the repubs seem to think this race is ending.

assmole said...

Sounds like Michael wants to suck Mule off. I wish him luck in his suck-quest.

Darío said...

New Hotline/FD national poll:

Obama 48
McCain 39

Smitty said...

Dan, nice to see another westerner in here.

It won't be over by Wednesday. Conservatives are very predictable. They will all ride this ship, faithfully spouting whatever the party talking points of the moment are.

hosertohoosier said...

Smitty,

I figure the point of having a comments section is so that you can have actual debate about the stuff Nate posts - or whatever everything devolves into. There are a lot of people left and right that spew slogans and talking points - but 538 also attracts smart people, who I enjoy debating with. Sometimes, unfortunately, issues like Sarah Palin, bring out the partisanship in all of us.

Rhys said...

"It won't be over by Wednesday. Conservatives are very predictable. They will all ride this ship, faithfully spouting whatever the party talking points of the moment are."

Yep. That's the great thing about being impervious to facts and reason.

Palin could spout horns and sacrifice her newborn on an altar and we'd still have all the right-wing shills tell us how she is the future great leader of America.

dominoid73 said...

New Rasmussen

Obama 51
McCain 45

Holy Crap!

Est individual results for Monday
Obama 57
McCain 43

http://www.bostonpie.com/DailyTracker.htm

quantman said...

Nate,

I have a deal of respect for you.....BUT I must disagree strongly with your read on the voters at large.

There are about 10-15% of the electorate that is better informed, but even that small slice could not tell you what our budget deficits are, what it means for our long-term growth potential, the value of the dollar or interest rates. They would not understand any of the legal issues involved in just about any lawmaking, trade deal negotiations or most of the important policy issues facing our country, OR their state, OR their county OR their local town or city. I have tried this time and again with Masters Level sophisticated and 98 of the time, even the sophisticated, intellectuals could not answer their questions.

The voters/masses at large do not really think much for themselves beyond their jobs, their monthly bills etc.; their minds can be molded and their views shaped--- at church, in other group settings and through potent ads. This is proven every election cycle and this ONLY has gotten more effective, not less.

As a global consumer marketer, who also knows a thing or two about direct response advertising, I believe you are way out of your league here.

The average voter has no time or inlclination to dig into issues deeply or proactively, they rely on others and hand-fed information.
Their rudimentary math and logic skills are apalling. Most could not do simple calculations in their head about 25% off at a store!

this.is.certainty said...

Lol, people, if you think for 5 seconds the psychology behind internet trolling is very simple: trolls want attention.

They are subconsciously terrified of being ignored (probably because they really feel like they deserve to be ignored), so they do whatever takes it get a rise.

Oh, and you can all suck my cock.

Dan said...

C.S.Strowbridge:

John C. Breckinridge (1856): WIN
Chester A. Arthur (1880): WIN
Whitelaw Reid (1892): LOSS
Arthur Sewell (1896): LOSS
Garret Hobart (1896): WIN
John W. Kern (1908): LOSS
Nicholas Butler (1912): LOSS
Frank Knox (1936): LOSS
Geraldine Ferraro (1984): LOSS

A 3-6 record isn't good, certainly, but I'd be wary of drawing any conclusions from that; I think that those elections turned on more than the VP choice (for both wins and losses).

jeanine said...

1) I'm on the side that it is okay for there to be general discussion along with the polls and the model.

2) The most important issue is that the Palin pick says about John McCain: it was a combination of being impulsive and thinking about the appeal to the [very] conservative base and the PUMAs. It was putting politics before country.

3) What I don't like is that much commentary starts with: "well of course McCain is the most experienced in terms of foreign policy..." He may be long on the scene, but he needed help on Sunnis vs Shiites, the nature of Iran and Iraq, the names of countries, the dates and origins of the Sunni Awakening.

assmole said...

Geraldine Ferraro. lol.

Arnaud said...

New Rasmussen tracking.

Obama up by 6 (51-45)

markymark said...

The experience issue is an interesting one. Its a relatively recent phenomenon, previously many candiates had very little elected experience. Take William Howard Taft in 1908, he had no prior elected office, and the same for Herbert Hoover in 1928. (Thats not to say they had no other helpful expewrience). Both Roosevelt's had only served 1 term as Governor in New York and in Teddy's time, that meant 2 years rather than 4. Even Jimmy carter had only served one term as Governnor of Georgia.

I think that actually most voters do tend to look at issues more than experience, and also make a judgement about whether some is ready or not. I think this maybe one of the reasons this election still looks fairly close, people are still interested in that decision. I think the high viewing figures for Obama's speech is more evidence of that- people want to find out about Obama and make that judgement. I wonder if McCain will draw as huge an amount of viewers as Obama did?

jeremy said...

Obama crossing 50% is huge.

Darío said...

Good news for Obama.
For the first time in the Rasmussen tracking is up 50%.
51-45.
Let´s see gallup.

Rhys said...

"Obama crossing 50% is huge."

It's really *not* that huge from a strict numbers standpoint.

But it could be huge to 538 if it means the mindless Republitrolls will finally shut the fuck up with the "Obama can't cross 50% so he loses" bullshit. :)

assmole said...

Is 50% the 'rubicon'? He can't go under that now? OK, pack this site up! Nate, find a real job!

mikewpbfl said...

Crude is headed towards south of $100.

http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080902/D92UIA0G0.html

Add the econ news by hoser.

Add the Bush part in handling Gustav.

Bush will address the GOP by sat. feed tonight.

I see W's approval rating heading towards above 40%.

More spin for the GOP machine.

Watch the "wrong track" poll number go down as well.

We will soon be turning Anbar over to the Iraqis.

News oulets are picking up chatter about an attack on Iran going into the final stages.

Looking better for McCain/Palin... though not a done deal.

Why hasnt Obama/Biden been able to close the deal.

And more fuel for the GOP fire. The riots in St.Paul

Rhys said...

"More spin for the GOP machine."

Spin is all the GOP has.

McCain has proven to all but the stupidest sheep that he is not qualified for the presidency.

Smitty said...

hoser - I agree.

quantman - I agree with your assessment, too. I spend a lot of time every election cycle explaining your points to friends. They do get frustrated.

PorridgeGun said...

Rasmussen: OBAMA 48% - McCain 43%

When "leaners" are included, it’s OBAMA 51% - McCain 45%.


This is the highest level of support Obama has enjoyed at any point in the 2008 Election.




Time to start breaking out the free lapdances, Maverick!



And I don't mean you.

Antmatic said...

Rasmussen has Obama up 51-45, highest level of support ever. Most of the one-off polls are showing Obama with a 6-8 point lead. McCain is going to have to have an epic bounce just to be even a few points behind Obama. If this time next week, Obama is up 2-4 points, we may be looking at an electoral landline again.

assmole said...

When 'wankers' are included, it's McCain 60%, Obama 80%!

markymark said...

That Rasmussen news is fascintaing. I wonder if its an outlier, or if people are making judgements based on Palin's pick rather than Palin herself, or what. I think its clear for the moment that Obama has a lead however. I think its clear that the GOP is going to try to get its convention started today, and that isn't necesarily great news for McCain, if the GOP brand is still weak. I almost wonder if McCain won't get a negative bounce from the convention??

assmole said...

Shit! I should have made my figures add up to 100!

Darío said...

And the number oh affiliation party en August is Dem 38% Rep 33%.

PorridgeGun said...

Just think, OBAMA hasn't even unleashed Colin Powell's endorsement yet.

p smith said...

The latest Rasmussen numbers 51-45 to Obama (48-43 without leaners) are a disaster for McCain and reinforce the suspicion that his pandering brainless selection of Palin is starting to tank. This is a gain for Obama of 3 points (from a 3 point lead to a 6 point lead) on the 3 day average from which you can infer that Obama was up to 12 points ahead on yesterday's one day sample.

But it gets worse for Republicans. Rasmussen has altered his party IDs again for September to give the Dems a 7.5% lead down from a 9 point lead in August. Of course Rasmussen may be right but it suggests that the raw data is even worse for McCain.

Now of course McCain is going to haev 3 nights of convention coverage but how many speakers are going to draw the public's attention in the same way that Michelle Obama, Hillary, Bill, Biden or Obama did? Bush will be a net negative which leaves Palin and McCain. Right now, it is touch and go whether Palin will even give a speech or whether she will break down in tears during her speech. Her speech is going to be the story of this convention and she has a tough job convincing the country in the space of 20 minutes that she is fit to be VP. What she won't now be able to do is play the wholesome as apple pie shit that she had no doubt drafted last Friday when the GOP sock puppets paraded her as the greatest VP selection in history. She will have to talk substance or attack Obama. I'm not sure how convincing she will be at either.

McCain will perform well on the last night. It won't be stellar but he will of course mention he is a POW ten times and question Obama's patriotism without specifically saying it.

While I still expect some GOP recovery, if the rumours are true that Palin is close to throwing in the towel, this could be worse than the 1984 Mondale blow out.

bondirotta said...

This is stunning. This was the timeframe when the VP bounce was supposed to boost McCain.

The scandal queen of Anchorage is dishing out some real pain for ole McCain.

Rhys said...

"While I still expect some GOP recovery, if the rumours are true that Palin is close to throwing in the towel, this could be worse than the 1984 Mondale blow out."

Don't be too sure about that. The GOP has the advantage of voters far stupider than they were even 24 years ago.

If Palin goes away there will be much whining and then a new 'white knight, perfect candidate to rally the base' will just take over.

And the Republican lying heads will just carry on as if Palin never existed. You watch.

Smitty said...

I did read that the RNC wanted copies of all her previous speeches. It is possible that she gives great speeches, thus one factor in selecting her.

Mule Rider said...

Just asking a question that's been in my head out loud here. Anybody feel free to chime in. Has Rhys ever made an intelligent post? All I've ever seen are comments along the lines of, "Damn stupid fucking Republithugs! Spin and lies. McSame is a tool and an old bigot! Republicans are all racist, gay-hating scum. Lying right wing trolls always come on and spread stupid bullshit! Fuck them. Suck me off. I hate the world! I hate conservatives. Karl Rove is a fucker!"

That about right? So classy and intellectual. Thanks for proving what most everyone already knows.

Christopher said...

The selection of Palin may go down as the most transparent and politically boneheaded move of all time.

I can honestly tell you that I'm offended by McCain and his contempt for the American people. To put his country at such risk with that pick is truly irresponsible.

assmole said...

Palin's main problem is her squeaky voice, not any faux-scandal.

jdk said...

Nate, stick with statistics.

pre 1. Get an actuary and tell me McCain's life expectancy, if your really want to make this point.

1. Your not old enough. And if you were, Kennedy's or even Reagan's inauguration would be the image. It's just too cute by half.

2. google images with "American president being inaugurated", your selected image doesn't come up. In fact, without mentioning Johnson, tell me what you'd have to use as search terms to get that image.

3. Dem's should just be yawing about Palin, not stirring up the pot about "experience". If Palin is not experienced enough then neither is Obama nor was Clinton nor was Reagan nor was Bush, jr. Let's just get over this dumb Clinton meme about "experience" -- Mark Penn was wrong and a loser: all Congressman, Senators and Governors and a whole bunch of America in all sorts of other fields are "experienced" enough to be President.

The question is what are the "policies", what is the "judgment", and is the person "likable/connectable" in a granfalloons, sense. Perhaps, in reverse order of importance.

Nixon won with the dope and crook Agnew.
Bush won with the dope Quayle.
Reagan won with Reagan.
Bush II won with Bush II.

For goodness sakes Warren Harding won!

Obama's got to win this himself. It will be very close but I think he can do it. But let's not get distracted with armchair political campaign organizers who think that the "Reagan, Bush, Quayle are such dopes" is actually a successful strategy.

Smitty said...

The answer to your question, Mule, is "yes, Rhys does make intelligent posts." He is excellent when this site isn't filled with negativism.

Citizen Grim said...

Nate, your editorializing doesn't sound rational. It sounds like rationalization.

Please stick with the stats.

Rhys said...

mule_rider,

Thanks for the laugh. I really enjoy having my posting prowess questioned by an individual who tells the owner of the site he is posting on to, and I quote, "eat shit and choke on it".

You're truly a credit to the human race.

assmole said...

jdk's reasonable post is very good.

Dad Bode said...

Next surprise could be a commercial for the MasterRace card, offered by the AIP (Alaska Independent Party) through its former member, Sarah Palin.
Lying about opposing the Bridge to Nowhere…worth 1 mooseburger
Abuse of power as governor…worth 2 mooseburgers
Opposing birth control and trumpeting abstinence only….worth 1 pregnancy
Claiming international experience as head of the Alaska National Guard because Russia has not attacked Alaska….PRICELESS!

assmole said...

the human rhys.

jdk said...

I just read

markymark's post 9/2, 2008 8:35 AM
post.

I think think he's on the same page.

Mule Rider said...

Is it when there is "negativism" here or just anyone who eoesn't think like he/she does?

Rhonlynn said...

I'm a strong democrat, but I think it would be horrible if Palin ruined McCain's political career. I'm voting for Obama, but I respect McCain,and don't understand how he could do this to himself.
Sure, we need to leave the children out of it, but this is the stuff of TMZ and Hollywood,and how can we now?
I see Palin as passive aggressive. And I donot know why McCain would keep her on the ticket. She is trouble.
As voting interests, I think the internet has alot to do with knowledge of voters. Whether that is good or bad. Website's like Nate's, which are very accurate in their polls, are interesting,and very imnportant, to keep voters informed, plus make them think.
As for Palin, she needs to be removed from the ticket. She is eating her own words, with her daughter being pregnant.Even though we know it's pretty normal. How awful it must feel for Bristol, having her sex life displayed on international television. Teen agers know how and where babies come from. Palin is eating her own words, unfortunately, it is punishing her daughter.

Smitty said...

jdk - I must disagree with your #2 point. I am an old woman who watched LBJ being sworn in on Air Force One on our family black and white television. For my generation, that photo is "famous".

It was not an inauguration, which may explain why your search did not find it.

PeteKent said...

The post is really a reach, Nate. When I think of innagurations I did not think of the famous swear in aboard AF 1 of LBJ.

I thouhgt of cold, crear crisp days of the sun shining on the East or West fronts of the Capitol and the promise that any new adminstration brings to Washington.

Ronald Reagan's first innaugural comes to mind (for the second the temps were so cold they moved it indoors) as does newsreel footage of Robert Frost at JFKs and Kennedy's great speech.

To bring up the tragedy in Dallas is more shameless pandering on Nate's part.

Obama has bumped in the Ras tracker. Yesterday was not a strong news day for the Republicans and the mini-scandal concerning Bristol Palin's baby did not help.

Still, as was made clear on the morning Joe this AM, the backlash is already brewing and the whole thing is likely to be a set up for a very positve account Governor Palin gives of herself and her family this week that will have the voters eating out of her hand.

Citizen Grim said...

This is stunning. This was the timeframe when the VP bounce was supposed to boost McCain.

Heh. How'd that Biden bounce work out for you? What about the convention bounce?

Oh, sorry. I mean... NO NEED TO PANIC. EVERYTHING IS FINE IN OBAMALAND. WE HAVE ALWAYS BEEN AT WAR WITH PAKISTAN. WHAT?

incunabular said...

I'm 33 and this particular inauguration would have never come to my mind. I imagine that much of my cohort is the same. When someone my age is asked to recall an inauguration we normally think of Maya Angelou reading her poem.

I'm not calling anyone old. Just FYI.

Daniel said...

The Palin uproar is rightly (at least now) impacting John McCain. Palin is, by all accounts, a great mother, fun person, good governor and passionate about her beliefs -- even a social liberal like myself can respect Palin's social agenda since, unlike Bush, she actually practices what she preaches.

She is unfortunately receiving the 'collateral damage' that comes with such public vetting by the press. I think the most telling action taken yesterday was that the McCain camp sent some people up to Alaska to gather more information -- uh guys, I'm an accountant, not involved in politics and even I know the information gathering phase is supposed to occur BEFORE you announce your VP choice.

Since the GOP base love Palin, she is in it to the end. They will revolt against McCain if he drops Palin now. The only way Palin is asked to leave the McCain campaign is if some criminal activity of her past emerges -- and even that would be a death knell to McCain because that stuff is supposed to bleed out from the vetting process.

Eric said...

Very good point Nate. My sense is she's no more qualified than the average person you'd meet at a bar. I think the press has done the vetting. I'm sure Maria Bartiromo is right, she probably makes a good case for why she thinks it's okay to drill in ANWR. I'd guess she's an expert in that regard, as we all have an area of expertise. But how about she point out Georgia and Darfur on a map or convince the American public that trickle down economics is what we need more of in our current situation. Or why global warming is not man-made, so what need to do nothing. Or what judges she'd appoint, when everyone she'd be comfortable with wouldn't pass muster, and we'd stuck with a Supreme Court with less than 9 judges. Cause this Congress madeup as it is will not take her BS. There's at least 20 women in Congress I can think of that know they're more qualfied than she is. So do their colleagues. They're sick of on stupid admininistration and will not work well with an incompetent one. Her own Mother-in-Law said on Sunday that Palin's not really qualified to be Governor, much less VP.

Arnaud said...

The miss Alaska Palin picks is a disaster.
Now the people doubt really about her.
The strategy from democrats is good.
We need continuing and i think it's not finish. This woman has more scandals behind her, i think.

Rhys said...

"Still, as was made clear on the morning Joe this AM, the backlash is already brewing and the whole thing is likely to be a set up for a very positve account Governor Palin gives of herself and her family this week that will have the voters eating out of her hand."

This is the real key that people here don't understand. Palin is an emotional appeal to stupid voters. They don't care how unqualified and corrupt and foolish and selfish she is. She shoots moose and looks good in a bikini, so they will vote for her.

Like it or not, this is what America has become.

Smitty said...

LOL, Mule. There are all kinds of opinions here, which is why I like it.

This old woman was taught it is not "lady-like" to use the kind of language you young folks throw around, so I'll just say "attacks' and let it go at that. I've been reading your posts for quite a while. I know you are smart enough to know what I'm saying.

Arnaud said...

I hope BUSH praises McCain tonight.
Good TV AD for Obama :)

p smith said...

Oh my it just gets better and better.

Hotline/FD poll has Obama up by 9, 48-39.

Add that to CBS 48-40 Obama, Rasmussen 51-45 Obama, USAToday 50-43 Obama and Gallup 49-43 Obama and it is pretty clear that the American people have seen straight through the Palin selection.

So much for the GOP self masturbatory frenzy that greeted her selection.

Rhys said...

"it is pretty clear that the American people have seen straight through the Palin selection."

It's not over by a long shot. The GOP hasn't had a chance to bullshit her up yet. Just you wait.

Daniel said...

And one other thing as I eat my Cheerios before work (live on the west coast).

Obama and the dems are now running the closest thing to a republican campaign as I've ever seen in presidential politics. The DEM talking heads on TV are all over this Palin vetting and are making GOP strategists on tv (e.g., Leslie Sanchez) look like limp-wristed liberals as they try to defend the Palin pick.

Finally it seems, Obama is on the offensive, not personally with Palin (his surrogates are taking care of that) but out on the trail going right after McCain.

As BO said -- "ENOUGH"

bondirotta said...

But the Biden bounce DID come through in the end - after disgruntled Hillary voters came home during the convention week.

That is why Obama is now climbing above 50% this week. Biden looks so good compared to Miss Congeniality.

Palin is pure poison to McCain. People already pity her and feel a lot of sympathy for her family. There is nothing more dangerous than pity when it comes to the GOP ticket, which is supposed to reflect strength and power.

She has jammed up the Mac machine with dollops of syrupy daytime soap opera gunk. And she will continue to keep the drama flowing for weeks.

Eric said...

I just wish Tim Russert could sit down with her for 1 hour, once. I literally think McCain may not have picked her if Tim was still the moderator of Meet the Press. I suppose she could have avoided going on. I agree with Rhys. In a well-choreographed speech, she'll come across extremely well to those that are judging her on expectations, instead of comparing her to what we think a VP should be. McCain pretends he wants to be a centrist, but this is just ridiculous. Anyone know politics real well out there. I want to know if there are any Pro-Life Women Governors other than her. Most of the governors I can think of that are women are Dems.

bryen193 said...

"Dem's should just be yawning about Palin, not stirring up the pot about "experience". If Palin is not experienced enough then neither is Obama nor was Clinton nor was Reagan nor was Bush, jr"

It's not just that she's not experienced. Around June, I thought Palin would be an excellent pick for McCain. However the boneheadedness of the pick comes in because McCain invested 2 entire months and untold millions in "Ready to Lead/Not ready to lead", followed by the Palin pick, now followed by a hurricane-obscured convention in which he has to roll out an entirely new campaign theme, which will now be obscured by media obsession with every detail of Palin's life. McCain isn't leading, he's reacting to Obama's campaign, which is not how Republicans usually run campaigns. They were clearly spooked by the imagery of Obama shown meeting with foreign heads of state, generals in the field, and the serious nature of his Denver convention speech and decided to jettison "not ready to lead". In its place however, he's turned his campaign into a circus sideshow. History will show that the voters of Michigan and Ohio, who are looking for serious economic policy prescriptions, will abandon McCain in droves because of this pick, whereas Romney could have helped there greatly.

Smitty said...

Rhys and Pete - yes, she is personable. She should do well during her speech and I believe she will appeal to a certain demographic. I am positive the RNC has been working overtime to get the spin "just so".