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Hurricane Catarina** [or Aldonça*] (01T) - Rare South Atlantic Hurricane - March 2004

*Unofficial name coined by Roger Edson  **Name given by Brazilian Meteorologists

NAVIGATION: MARCH: 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, APRIL: 01, 02, 03

Introduction

On 22 March 2004 a vortex appeared in the South Atlantic Ocean.  Now everyone knows that tropical cyclones just don't happen in the South Atlantic.  This storm just didn't know how to obey the rules.  By 25th March it stirred up the waters of the South Atlantic, but even more, it stirred up the hearts and imaginations of cyclone watchers in all corners of the globe, professional and amateur alike.  I plan to list below the e-mails and other reports that this storm evoked, and I hope that these will help you to share in the excitement of looking at what indeed is a very rare event in meteorological history.  The TCDG referred to so often in this page is an informal group of people who are interested in Tropical Cyclones.  One member of the group, Roger Edson, unofficially gave this storm the name "Aldonça" (pronounced "Al-don-sah") which is a Portuguese word used as a name for women (although not necessarily in Brazil).  The similar name "Aldoncia" means "sweet."  Later the official agency in Brazil named the cyclone "Catarina" after the name of the Brazilian state towards which it was headed.   Another agency in Brazil put out regular warnings naming the storm "1-T Alfa".
I have added to the page some e-mails depicting the humour evoked among weather enthusiasts by this unusual storm as well as some which branch into discussions of other storms about which contributors were reminded by this storm.

If any reader has other e-mails or reports which ought to be added to this page to make it more complete, please forward them to me at smithp AT ics DOT edu DOT hk.
If any Brazilian readers have further information, reports or pictures, please forward them to me at the above address.  Thanks.

This page was prepared at a resolution of 1600 x 1048 pixels and is designed to be viewed at a resolution of 1024 x 768 pixels or higher.  Narrower screens may cause a great deal of awkward sideways scrolling.

Times in e-mail headers are Hong Kong Time, which is UTC + 8 hours.

Important Note:

This web-site does not attempt to give any warnings on any storms.  This page aims at recording for the purpose of future study by professional and amateur weather enthusiasts the comments and reports which were being made as we sought to understand this once-in-a-lifetime event.  Nothing on this page, therefore, should be construed as "official" information.

E-mails and references

Thursday 25th March 2004      NAVIGATION: MARCH: 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, APRIL: 01, 02, 03

From: huangchunliang To: TCDG
Date: 03/25/2004 11:30 Subject: South ATL ST
David,
Is there a new Subtropical Storm forming south of Brazil??
Cheers, HCl
0403230900EI1_g.jpg (7278 bytes)0403231200EI1_g.jpg (7275 bytes)0403231800EI1_g.jpg (6880 bytes)0403240000EI1_g.jpg (6449 bytes)0403241500EI1_g.jpg (6525 bytes)0403241800EI1_g.jpg (6725 bytes)0403250000EI1_g.jpg (6295 bytes)

From: "David Roth" To: TCDG
Date: 03/25/2004 15:11 Subject: Re: South ATL ST
Interesting. Looks like a near-textbook occluded cyclone...but with active central convection...off southern Brazil...clearly a hybrid of some sort...but that occlusion seen in the low clouds would make me leery of using the "s" word. The convection is much better wrapped than the system a couple weeks ago...but the fronts are sharper and clearly seen on the IR tonight. Some would say it is detached from the main frontal band...which is true...occlusions usually are relatively devoid of much temp gradient. If you zoomed in tight enough , it would appear tropical. I wonder what the cyclone phase space would show for this system.
Last time we had something like this in the Atlantic was November 1996 off Nova Scotia. One of these type of systems ran up through Chesapeake Bay in
January 1992. Neat. =)
DR

From: "huangchunliang" To: TCDG
Date: 03/25/2004 22:03 Subject: Re: South ATL ST
Thanks for your insight, David!
The cyclone looked neatest at 25/0300Z with the standard shape of a comma. Will keep tab on the progress.
BTW, do you know where I could got the high resolution imageries for this area?
HCl

Friday 26th March 2004      NAVIGATION: MARCH: 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, APRIL: 01, 02, 03

From: "David Roth" To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 04:13 Subject: South ATL hybrid forming an eye
Check out the link of the high res visible from 1640z. http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.cgi?A040851640
Never seen an eye feature in the South Atlantic before,
DR

From: Matt Crowther To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 04:24 Subject: Re: South ATL hybrid forming an eye
Just curious- what government agency is responsible for issuing an advisory and/or officially classifying systems in the south Atlantic?
Matt

From: "Steve Lyons" To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 04:36 Subject: Re: South ATL hybrid forming an eye
I saw this Matt.....very interesting! Steve

From: "David Roth" To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 04:41 Subject: Re: South ATL hybrid forming an eye
That's a good question. I'm fairly sure it's not the US. I'll ask the other group and see if anyone knows.
DR

From: "David Roth" To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 05:16 Subject: Re: South ATL hybrid forming an eye
This answers the warning question. -DR
.Hi David,
.According the WMO map http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/TCP/images/MapRSMC-all.png nobody has responsibility for TCs in the South Atlantic. However, the Brazilian Navy Hydrographic Centre issues the High Seas Forecast for that region (METAREA V), so maybe they would be the likely choice?
.Mike

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 07:12 Subject: Re: South ATL hybrid forming an eye
David,
South ATL STCs and TCs sounds like a good topic for you to do a paper on at the 2006 conference.

From: "Adrian Garcia" To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 11:42 Subject: South ATL hybrid - Spectacular IR/Vis Loop!
Hi all,
The following links include satellite animations of the South Atlantic hybrid system:
Latest 12 images (Java Animation) http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/burn/wfabba/wfabba_sbrazil__last.html
Previous 12 images (Java Animation) http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/burn/wfabba/wfabba_sbrazil__prev.html
Image Index http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/burn/data/rtloopregional/sbrazil_/
Enjoy, Adrian Garcia

From: Dosidicus To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 11:46 Subject: Re: South ATL hybrid forming an eye
It's too bad I can't crack a bottle of bubbly at the moment--this is big news, IMO. Fantastic image--thanks much!
Cheers! -John

From: "Roger Edwards" To: Tropical Cyclone Discussion Group
Date: 03/26/2004 12:00 Subject: South Atlantic cyclone with banded eye
Julian, David, et al.,
Very, very impressive. Thanks for posting that link. We'll never know for sure, but I would bet my lunch today that this South Atlantic cyclone has become warm-core, with 1. Such a pronounced banded-eye feature and 2. Well-defined upper level anticyclonic (counterclockwise in Southern Hemisphere) outflow channel, particularly to its south.
This system (being a Texan I've been nicknaming it Hurricane Bubba for lack of any other ideas) is a history maker.
It is, IMHO, the most intense south Atlantic TC ever observed. The caveat with that statement is that so few ever have been observed! :-)
The first known S. Atlc TC (the one I classified back in '91 while at NHC) was a TD or marginal TS (briefly) at best, a feeble little burp compared to this. [The '91 system was much nearer to the equator (S of western Africa) and indisputably tropical in character.] Even the system back in January, which Boris just reminded me about offline, didn't look anywhere nearly this intense.
Has anyone done some objective T-numbers on this thing (for banded-eye type structure)?

From: "David Roth" To: garyp
Date: 03/26/2004 12:23 Subject: Track of South Atl ST/TC
I checked over our 00z South American surface analyses done on weekdays by the International Desks...and it appears that this system was the next wave up the front/SACZ (short for South American Convergence Zone) from the mid-March ST attempt (2 day gap in analyses during 3/20-21 which leaves room for doubt).
Below is the track for the most recent storm, which includes satellite positions from GOES East. The pressures look mainly derived from the GFS initialisation ...very few obs were reported near this system. Ships are listed when anywhere near the system. Looks like it started becoming convectively active on the 22nd on the imagery. Water temps from a nearby buoy are 75F...24C.
3/22 00z 31S   38W    996 Occluded
     18z 30.8S 37.9W From satellite
          SE  20 kt ship near 27.8S 41.6W 1013.0 hPa
3/23 00z 30.5S 37.3W 1010 Weakening occlusion analyzed
          ESE 15 kt ship near 29.8S 43.6W 1017.7 hPa
     12z 29.8S 37.9W From satellite
          ESE 10 kt ship near 27.4S 41.9W 1016.3 hPa
     18z 29.8S 38.5W From satellite
          NW  15 kt ship near 28.5S 34.0W 1013 hPa
          S   10 kt ship near 26.0S 41.5W 1014.9 hPa
3/24 00z 29.9S 38.7W 1010 Weakening occlusion analyzed
     12z 29.5S 39.7W From satellite
     18z 29.5S 39.7W From satellite
3/25 00z 28.8S 40.1W 1010 Weakening occlusion analyzed
     12z 29.0S 41.3W From satellite
     18z 28.7S 41.9W From satellite
3/26 00z 28.5S 42.5W From satellite

DR

From: huangchunliang To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 13:03 Subject: South ATL HUR
Hi folks,
Thanks for sharing all the images of the South ATL ST/TC (may I call it a Hurricane now?)! Looks as if the "eye" is evolving into a bona fide one.
Drink to the earthshaking event in the realm of TC,
HCl

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 13:07 Subject: Re: South ATL HUR
Really will be something if it hits the coast of Brazil as a hurricane!!!
Does anyone have any e-mail contact with some person in Brazil's met service???
SAB has started posting bulletins on this system on their webpage.

From: "Konon, Boris" To: TCDG 0403260244z.gif (71005 bytes)
Date: 03/26/2004 13:28 Subject: Latest IR Image of SATL "Hurricane"
I hope we see some ground (or should I say ocean) truth data on this!
<<0403260244z.gif>>
Boris

From: "Konon, Boris" To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 13:48 Subject: RE: South ATL HUR
Gary...where on the SAB page is the bulletin? I can't seem to find it.
Boris

From: "Konon, Boris" To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 13:55 Subject: QuikSCAT Winds of SATL Tropical System
Ascending pass: http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/dataimages21/qscat/cur/zooms/WMBas28.png
Descending Pass: http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/dataimages21/qscat/cur/zooms/WMBds28.png

From: Roger Edson To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 14:11 Subject: Re: QuikSCAT Winds of SATL Tropical System
Now, why in the world would you go to these sites when the FNMOC site is so much better? Do you know that on these global images, that only every 1/3rd vector is plotted?
Roger

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 18:25 Subject: Re: South ATL HUR
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
----- Original Message -----
> Gary...where on the SAB page is the bulletin? I can't seem to find it.
> Boris

From: "Konon, Boris" To: TCDGsatltc.gif (185289 bytes)
Date: 03/26/2004 18:41 Subject: First Visible of South Atlantic System
Looks quite impressive!
<<satltc.gif>>
Boris

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

From: Roger Edson To: Typhoon Gang TCDG 25mar2022fnoc annot.gif (24675 bytes)
Date: 03/26/2004 19:53 Subject: Latest S Atlantic QuikSCAT
Hi,
I sent these images to my other group (I'm not supposed to send messages to the two at the same time...)
Roger

From: huangchunliang To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 20:09 Subject: Hurricane 01T
Interesting!!!
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 26.03.2004
TROPICAL STORM 01T ANALYSED POSITION : 28.6S 41.8W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.03.2004 28.6S 41.8W WEAK
12UTC 26.03.2004 28.7S 43.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.03.2004 28.8S 43.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.03.2004 29.6S 44.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.03.2004 29.5S 45.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.03.2004 29.8S 47.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.03.2004 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT
MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

HCl

From: "Konon, Boris" To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 20:21 Subject: RE: Hurricane 01T
The designation of "T" for the South Atlantic...is that the official letter used for this basin? -- not that we've ever needed to use it before! :)
Boris

From: "Heming, Julian" To: Tropical Cyclone Discussion Group
Date: 03/26/2004 20:54 Subject: RE: Hurricane 01T
You guys are quick off the mark aren't you! I requested that Met Office forecasters to start issuing guidance on this system this morning. Our system demands that the cyclone has a name or identifier. The classifications currently used across the globe use the letters A (Arabian Sea), B (Bay of Bengal), C (Central Pacific), E (NE Pacific), F (Fiji region), L (N Atlantic), P (S Pacific), S (S Indian), U (Australian regions). Since S and A are used I chose the next letter in 'S Atlantic' (T) to denote this storm. I hasten to add there is nothing 'official' about this. I did wonder whether JTWC would designate it as 22S, but didn't think I should use this in case JTWC use it for the next S Indian ocean TC. Any other ideas for a name or identifier?
On the subject of this particular forecast, the 00Z run of the Met Office model has a relatively weak system which it dissipates after 2 days prior to landfall. However, this is without its usual TC initialisation which relies on advisories being issued (which of course is not happening). However, subsequent runs will be initialised, so it'll be interesting to see what the forecasts come up with.
Julian

From: "Adrian Garcia" To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 20:54 Subject: **South Atlantic Hurricane - Incredible Imagery Links**
Hi,
The following links include satellite animations of the South Atlantic hybrid system:
Visible Loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
Enhanced IR http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html
Dvorak IR http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-bd-loop.html
Water Vapour http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-wv-loop.html
Also Latest 12 images (Java Animation) http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/burn/wfabba/wfabba_sbrazil__last.html
Previous 12 images (Java Animation) http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/burn/wfabba/wfabba_sbrazil__prev.html
Image Index http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/burn/data/rtloopregional/sbrazil_/
Enjoy,
Adrian Garcia

From: huangchunliang To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 21:18 Subject: RE: Hurricane 01T
Well done, Julian! We really need an identifier to discuss this supernatural.
Of course, I know well that the suffix "T" was not the official one because there is no such an agency on the earth that has the responsibility for warning on the South ATL TC. Besides, I don't think that JTWC will take the job to designate it as "22S". BTW, I still remember that the 1995 Mediterranean sea "TC" has been identified as "01M" on one of the track maps plotted by UK Met Office.
HCl

From: "Heming, Julian" To: Tropical Cyclone Discussion Group
Date: 03/26/2004 21:22 Subject: RE: Hurricane 01T
Yes - 01M was my idea as well. Maybe I've got a new job of designating identifiers for unusual TC locations!
Julian

From: "Phil Smith" To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 21:30 Subject: RE: Hurricane 01T
"Tropical Storm 01T" sounds fine to me. Since JTWC warns on the rest of the entire Southern Hemisphere, why do they not warn on this one? They have gone outside of their usual areas before when an unusual storm was in the SE Pacific way east of where they are normally seen a year or two back.
I think that with better satellite systems we may find that more storms are discovered in the future beyond the limits of the usual basins. It is not that these storms haven't always happened, it's just that there has never been anyone there to discover them.
If you think about it, if storms formed in the middle of the S Atlantic and dissipated before reaching any land, then until satellite coverage became the norm, there would be no earthly way of anybody knowing about them.
If my recollection of maps showing shipping lanes is correct (it's been a while since my schooldays!) there were very few lines crossing the middle of the S Atlantic.
Just a few rambling thoughts. What do others think?
I have added the storm to my page at http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm - not that I could find many links. If anyone can supply other suitable links for following this storm, I would appreciate hearing about them.
Phil
<><

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 21:33 Subject: Re: Hurricane 01T
> Of course, I know well that the suffix "T" was not the official ... [snip]
> Mediterranean sea "TC" has been identified as "01M" on one of the track
> maps plotted by UK Met Office.

I was going to say would you use "M" for the Med-canes, and apparently you have.
The "T" designator for the South Atlantic sounds fine to me--as good as "L" for the North Atlantic. Also (referring to Julian's earlier posting), don't forget "W" for the Western Pacific.

From: "Phil Smith" To: Aussie-weather
Date: 03/26/2004 21:52 Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Fay and Tropical Storm 01T
TC Fay is certainly an impressive storm in many ways. I think it will cross the coast somewhere near Pardoo sometime on Saturday morning, although, as always with TCs, anything may happen in the meantime.
At the same time we have the most unusual storm I think I have ever added to my web page (at http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm) in the form of Tropical Storm 01T in the South Atlantic approaching Brazil.
Storms here are so rare that there is no RSMC appointed to give warnings on them. The UK Met Office has started to issue guidance on it, but no agency is taking up the challenge to issue warnings for a cyclone where a cyclone has never been seen before.
Phil
<><

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/26/2004 22:54 Subject: Re: Hurricane 01T
JTWC is only chartered with warning in the SH from the east coast of Africa eastward across the South Indian and South Pacific to the west coast of South America. Why?? Because all the textbooks say the tropical cyclones do not form in the South Atlantic. Period.
I agree, no doubt there have been many in the past, and probably more than one would think even after the dawn of the satellite age. Quite likely many people monitoring the usual basins rarely even look at the South Atlantic.
And also, the issue of hybrid vs subtropical vs tropical comes into play with systems such as this one. There are probably many meteorologists around the world who aren't as comfortable calling a system of higher latitude origin "tropical" as NHC is.

From: "Heming, Julian" To: Tropical Cyclone Discussion Group
Date: 03/26/2004 23:26 Subject: Re: South ATL hybrid forming an eye
There's been another hi-res pass over the system (26/1310Z). http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.cgi?T040861310
Julian

Saturday 27th March 2004      NAVIGATION: MARCH: 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, APRIL: 01, 02, 03

From: Matthew Saxby To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 00:07 Subject: Re: Hurricane 01T
Dear Julian (and everyone else...),
> You guys are quick off the mark aren't you! <snip>. The classifications currently used across the globe use the letters A (Arabian Sea), B (Bay of Bengal), C (Central Pacific), E (NE Pacific), F (Fiji region), L (N Atlantic), P (S Pacific), S (S Indian), U (Australian regions).
Tell JTWC about the 'nnU' designator, they insist on 'S' & 'P'. As a matter of record, I believe all TC's should be lettered according to the AOR in which the first advisories are issued (usually when the storm is at TD stage), and use my own letters for TC's, generally going with what's in official use for the NH (including nnM for Mediterranean systems). But for SH, because I've always felt that the "S/P" designators are too generic, I use:
I -- SIO (Reunion/MFR)
R -- PeRth
D -- Darwin
Q -- Brisbane (>Queensland)
N -- Port Moresby (>New Guinea)
J -- Nadi (>FiJi, chosen so as not to clash with Nadi's internal nnF designators)
Z -- Wellington (>New Zealand)
X -- SOUTH ATLANTIC
Being an amateur and therefore not being bound by anyone's rules, I've always catered for the possibility of SATL storms in my TC database design. It would seem this has now paid off, as the SATL has had quite an active last few months. If my memory serves me right, 01T is actually the third or fourth SATL 'entity' we've seen this SH season. Tentatively I'd designate it 03X.
As for Fiji -- I believe they intended their nnF designators for their own use, and certainly up till this year no-one else has used them. I seem to recall one or two recent marine advisories from Brisbane which have mentioned Fijian storms using those designators, but the storms concerned originated and remained within Nadi's AOR. Brisbane has not hitherto continued using nnF designators once a storm has crossed 160E, even though Nadi's name is always retained. I for one would be happy to see nnF become the official designator for Fijian-origin storms, and of course would use it in place of "J" in my database.
> ...22S, but didn't think I should use this in case JTWC use it for the next S Indian ocean TC.
That they certainly would, providing the next SH storm to interest them develops in the SIO -- otherwise it'll be 22P. Why they have one count for the whole SH I don't know, like surely S and P should be counted separately. All the other letters are...
> Any other ideas for a name or identifier?
As I said, 03X... As for a name, let's hold a competition :-)
> However, subsequent runs will be initialised, so it'll be interesting to see what the forecasts come up with.
I suspect we'll all be watching with bated breath.... :-)
Yours,
Matthew

From: "Heming, Julian" To: Tropical Cyclone Discussion Group
Date: 03/27/2004 00:24 Subject: Re: South Atlantic cyclone with banded eye
The NOAA Satellite Analysis Branch are issuing fixes with Dvorak classifications. They currently have it as T4.0. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
For information, 12Z run of the Met Office model has it recurving short of the Brazilian coast and dissipating at sea.
Julian

From: "Adrian Garcia" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 00:30 Subject: **South Atlantic Hurricane - UPDATED Imagery Links**
Hi again,
The following links have been updated because the Floater 2 has now switched over to Floater 1. Note that the floater 1 now has a spectacular RGB loop.
****RGB Loop****  http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/rgb-loop.html
Visible Loop  http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Enhanced IR  http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
Dvorak IR  http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-bd-loop.html
Water Vapour  http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
The following links remain the same:
Latest 12 images (Java Animation) http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/burn/wfabba/wfabba_sbrazil__last.html
Previous 12 images (Java Animation) http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/burn/wfabba/wfabba_sbrazil__prev.html
Image Index  http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/burn/data/rtloopregional/sbrazil_/
Enjoy,
Adrian Garcia

From: "Gary Padgett" To: "TCDG"
Date: 03/27/2004 00:52 Subject: Brazilian Link
Here is a link to a page of the Brazilian Hydrographic Centre. http://www.dhn.mar.mil.br/chm/meteo/prev/meteoro/boletiming.htm
They must not think too much of "Alpha" (or whatever). No warnings, and in the analysis section they regard it as a 1006-mb low.

From: Matt Crowther To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 01:53 Subject: Re: Brazilian Link
> They must not think too much of "Alpha" (or whatever). No warnings, and in the analysis section they regard it as a 1006-mb low.
1006 yeah right- to my untrained eye, this looks like at least a solid cat 1, probably a 2 right now....pretty amazing!
I hope someone at JTWC or NHC is archiving this data for post-analysis (would make a good paper).
Matt

From: "Kevin Boyle" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 02:33 Subject: Re: Brazilian Link
Gary and list,
They appear to have awoken up now after I checked earlier this afternoon.
There's a severe weather warning now if you can understand Spanish or Portuguese or whatever. Winds of gale-force 7 are affecting the northern parts of areas "Alpha" and southern "Bravo" and "Charlie". Note that they have designated it as an extratropical cyclone at 1004 mb. See below. I've only listed the three sea areas that the cyclone is affecting. Severe weather warning not included below.
Regards
Kevin
WEATHER AND SEA BULLETIN REFERENT TO 1200 ANALYSIS 26/MAR/2004
DATE AND TIME REFERENCE MERIDIAN OF GREENWICH - GMT
PRESSURE HPA
BEAUFORT SCALE WINDS
WAVES HEIGHT METRES
PART ONE - WARNINGS
WARNING NR 054/2004

GALE WARNING
ISSUED AT 1700 – FRI– 26/MAR/2004
NEAR GALE FORCE 7 SW/SE AFFECTING SOUTH OF AREAS BRAVO/CHARLIE AND N OF AREA ALFA .
VALID UNTIL 271500.
WARNING NR 055/2004
ROUGH SEA WARNING
ISSUED AT 1700 – FRI – 26/MAR/2004
ROUGH SEA WITH WAVES FM SE/E 3.0/4.0 METERS AFFECTING NORTH OF AREA AND ALFA E S OF BRAVO/CHARLIE.
VALID UNTIL 271500.
PART TWO - ANALYSIS AT 261200
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE 1004 29S042W. LOW 1006 33S036W. HIGH 1018 43S060W. HIGH 1020 43S029W. HIGH 1018 34S053W. HIGH 1018 24S034W. Q-STNR DISSIPATING FRONT OVER ILHÉUS. TROUGH AT 14S040W, 14S043W AND 13S046W.
I T C Z 05N020W, 00N030W, 02N40W AND 03N050W WITH 3/4 DEGREES WIDE WITH LIGHT/MOD ISOL SHWRS IN THE WHOLE BAND.
PART THREE - WEATHER FCST VALID FM 270000 TO 280000
AREA ALFA (FM ARROIO CHUI TO CABO DE SANTA MARTA)

EARLY MORNING/MORNING MIST NEAR THE COAST AND LIGHT/MOD ISOL SHWRS EXTREME N OF AREA. WIND SW/SE 6/7 BECMG 4/5 WITH GUSTS N OF AREA AND SE/NE 3/4 OCNL 5 S OF AREA. WAVES FM SE/E 1.0/2.0 S OF AREA AND 3.0/4.0 BECMG 1.5/2.5 N OF AREA. VIS GOOD OCNL MOD.
AREA BRAVO (FM CABO DE SANTA MARTA TO CABO FRIO - OCEANIC)
LIGHT/MOD ISOL SHWRS S OF AREA. WIND SW/SE 6/7 BECMG 4/5 WITH GUSTS AT S OF AREA AND NE/NW 3/4 ELSE. WAVES FM SE/E 1.0/2.0. VIS GOOD DECR TO MOD DURING SHWRS.
AREA CHARLIE (FM CABO DE SANTA MARTA TO CABO FRIO - COAST)
MIST NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING AND LIGHT/MOD ISOL SHWRS IN THE AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WIND SW/SE 6/7 BECMG 4/5 WITH GUSTS AT S OF AREA AND SE/NE 3/4 AT N OF AREA. WAVES FM S/SE 1.0/2.0 N OF AREA AND SE/E 1.5/2.5 S OF AREA. VIS GOOD OCNL MOD.

From: "David Roth" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 03:55 Subject: Re: South Atlantic cyclone with banded eye
www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
SAB started classifications yesterday. =)
DR
----- Original Message -----
> Has anyone done some objective T-numbers on this thing (for banded-eye type structure)?

From: Roger Edson To: Typhoon Gang TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 04:03 Subject: Fwd: RE: First Recorded South Atlantic Hurricane, Hurricane Aldonça
Here is my suggestion to the other half of the 'gang'.
Let's hear it for Hurricane Aldonça!
Roger
--- Roger Edson [snip] wrote:
> Date: Fri, 26 Mar 2004 12:00:45 -0800 (PST)
> From: Roger Edson [snip]
> Subject: RE: First Recorded South Atlantic Hurricane, Hurricane Aldonça
> To: TropicalStorms
> Hi,
> I'd like to suggest: Hurricane Aldonça
> Basically in this internet age, I 'googled' for Portuguese women's names and liked this one the best (common name and starts with an 'A').
> 1. No way this is the 'first' or the 'last' system to have hurricane characteristics. Obviously it is rare, and I betcha that it is even rarer for it to hit the coast (being located usually within the westerlies).
> 2. I think the (1)lack of incipient systems, (2) vertical shear, and (3) Unlikelihood of retrograde or stagnant motion poleward of the subtropical jet in order to have time to develop a convective warm core are the primary reasons for their rarity. Remember, this system formed as a hybrid, subtropical system.
> In addition, the lack of the combination of these systems hitting the Brazilian coast with the accompanying satellite imagery furnish the basic reason for the lack of documentation. (BTW, I am sure that people have been 'hit' by these things, without ever knowing what hit them...).
> 3. Please remember that ships at sea ARE affected by these things...so, it doesn't help to educate about them and set up, perhaps, a better procedure (within the WMO) to warn on them is probably appropriate.
> Roger
> --- "Fogarty,Chris [Dartmouth]" wrote:
> > That's exactly what I was thinking Gary...there may have been other tropical-like systems down there before, we just didn't see them. This  is obviously very rare though...but I often wondered why we don't see more tropical systems down there .... I mean the SSTs are warm enough this time of year, and you'd think the shear would be light enough at times to allow more TCs to form.
> > What is the main inhibiting factor to tropical cyclogenesis in the South   Atlantic? I've asked many people this question, but never got a good answer. Is it basin width? (doubt it). Is it too hostile upper level winds? No persistent ITCZ to form TCs?
> > Chris
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Gary Padgett [snip]
> > Sent: Friday, March 26, 2004 11:18 AM
> > To: TropicalStorms
> > Subject: Re: [Tropical-storms] First Recorded South Atlantic Hurricane
> > > Anyway, Mark Lander brought up another, rather interesting, South Atlantic system to this group on Jan 19 of this year.
> > > See IR and quickscat: http://tstorms.org/mailman/private/tropical-storms/2004/4902.html
> > > There must be something unusual in the South Atlantic this year that is allowing these storms to form.
> > > Bill
> > A big question I have is: can anyone say with certainty that events such as this have not been happening from time to time in the SA? Was the January TC truly the first since the April, 1991 system? Or (as I tend to suspect) such storms have formed occasionally but no one, at least in the main internet-connected TC community, has spotted or called attention to them?
> > Best regards,
> > Gary

From: Dosidicus To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 04:36 Subject: Re: Hurricane 01T
This year was seeming so ordinary too...without a doubt, this is the most surreal day in my life as a TC-watcher.
In a good way, of course! :D
-John

From: Roger Edson To: TCDGHurricane Aldonca red.jpg (57919 bytes)
Date: 03/27/2004 04:56 Subject: Re: Hurricane Aldonça (01T)
Well....here is a little memory for you..
BTW, both NRL and FNMOC sites have opened an area up for further view in the microwave imagery (and scat).
Do you like 'my' name 'Aldonça'?
Roger

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

From: "Adrian Garcia" To: [snip] Cc: TCDG20040326_1201_trmm_tmi_85v_x_01LNONAME.jpg (39564 bytes)
Date: 03/27/2004 05:01 Subject: Nrlmry now tracking the south Atlantic hurricane
Hi All,
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
Regards,
Adrian

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

From: Dosidicus To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 06:28 Subject: Re: Hurricane 01T
> In a message dated 3/26/2004 8:56:51 AM Central Standard Time, gary padgett writes:
> agree, no doubt there have been many in the past, and probably more than one would think even after the dawn of the satellite age. Quite likely many people monitoring the usual basins rarely even look at the South Atlantic.

My thoughts exactly--no doubt this bad girl will get tropical meteorologists to finally comb through tons of SATL met imagery since the 1960s, and maybe some ship and land reports. :D
This is just amazing, really. I really can't believe it.
-John

From: Dosidicus To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 06:31 Subject: Re: South Atlantic cyclone with banded eye
[snip]
Nah, I have to tell you what's funny--that this is perhaps the only TC in the world that you can't test CLIPER against. ;)
-John

From: "Gary Padgett" To: "TCDG"
Date: 03/27/2004 06:34 Subject: AODT on S-ATL system
> Tim Olander ran our latest AODT on this system around 15Z. Agrees with the AMSU pretty close.
> Chris/Tim
> ****************************************************
> UW - CIMSS
> ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
> AODT - Version 6.3
> Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
> ----- Current Analysis -----
>   Date : 26 MAR 2004 Time : 144500 UTC
>    Lat : 28:55:22 S Lon : 43:59:12 W
>            CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
>            4.5 / 974.0mb/ 77.0kt
>    Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -5.0mb
> Eye Temp : +10.4C Cloud Region Temp : -40.8C
> Scene Type : CLEAR EYE
> Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC

From: Dosidicus To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 06:35 Subject: Re: Brazilian Link
In a message dated 3/26/2004 11:57:14 AM Central Standard Time, mcrowther@[snip] writes:
> I hope someone at JTWC or NHC is archiving this data for post-analysis (would make a good paper).

No worries--I'm pretty the sure the TC specialists we have on here will do right by us. ;)
-John

From: Dosidicus To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 06:39 Subject: Re: First Recorded South Atlantic Hurricane, Hurricane Aldonça
In a message dated 3/26/2004 3:29:33 PM Central Standard Time, rogeredson@[snip] writes:
> Here is my suggestion to the other half of the 'gang'.
> Let's hear it for Hurricane Aldonça!
> Roger

Hear, hear!! :D
You know, some people could make a name in the field based on this storm alone...just wait.
-John

From: Dosidicus To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 07:16 Subject: Re: Hurricane Aldonça (01T)
The name will work. ;-) I was thinking more along the lines of "Cabral", after the first European to land on Brazil's coast, but yours has a better local flavour.
-John

From: "Michael V. Padua" To: <TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 09:08 Subject: Re: Hurricane 01T
Dear Gary and All,
That's one thing why amazing events do happen to our planet... don't forget VAMEI, the first ever recorded "Equator TC" in 2002! :-D
Cheers!
Michael =;-)
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: "Michael V. Padua" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 09:25 Subject: Re: Hurricane 01T
Roger,
I agree with the name "Aldonça" - very Brazilian and south American! :-)
Michael =;-)
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: "Typhoon2000.ph \(Michael Padua\)" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 09:35 Subject: How can Aldonça be its Official Name???
Roger and All,
This is like hunting comets.... I hope your coined name will be official!!
Let's make it official to our group! I just added it over my site!
Regards,
Michael =;-)
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: "Phil Smith" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 09:59 Subject: Re: How can ALDONÇA be its Official Name???
Yes, Michael, I agree.
On my page at http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm I have named it HURRICANE ALDONÇA 01T ... it just makes it easier to refer to.
I do notice that NRL are calling it 01L.NONAME, placing it in the Atlantic section, and I wonder whether they intend to just make it the first storm of this year's (North) Atlantic basin even though it is south of the Equator. NFMOC also refer to it as 01L.NONAME, but they place it in the Southern Hemisphere section of their page.
This event is certainly causing some stretching of boundaries, isn't it!
I hope we will see some good studies made of it in the future.
I have even been wondering whether I ought to make a special page for this storm like I did for the Queensland Hybrid at the beginning of the month and just gather all of our comments and references together into one place.
Phil
<><

From: Matthew Saxby To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 10:00 Subject: Re: Hurricane 01T
Dear All,
I notice that our rare bird has been given "01L" by NLMRY, yet no name from the "L" list. By rights, it should be "Alex", to go with 01L. I wonder if NLMRY's use of 01L is going to affect NHC's numbering when the NATL becomes active? But personally, I don't think "L" designators should be used for SATL systems. Either Julian's "nnT" or another letter would be a lot better, IMO. What do the rest of you think?
BTW, I'll go with "Aldonça", unless it's officially decided to name the poor thing from the NATL list.
And I'm beginning to wonder -- now that it seems it's been acknowledged the SATL does spawn TC's, when will we see our first-ever cross-equatorial Atlantic twin? Now, that would be something! Anything's possible...
Matthew

From: Jim Leonard To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 10:04 Subject: Re: Hurricane 01T
The south Atlantic is a separate basin so the name "Alex" should not be used. If anything military name maybe used as this is such a rare event.
Jim

From: Matthew Saxby To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 10:12 Subject: Re: How can ALDONÇA be its Official Name???
Dear Phil (and all),
> This event is certainly causing some stretching of boundaries, isn't it!
Bet your life, mate!
> I hope we will see some good studies made of it in the future.
I suspect people will still be writing papers on this one when we're all dead and buried :-)
> I have even been wondering whether I ought to make a special page for this storm like I did for the Queensland Hybrid at the beginning of the month and just gather all of our comments and references together into one place.
Yes!! Great idea!! Go for it!!!

From: "Typhoon2000.ph \(Michael Padua\)" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 10:13 Subject: TERRA captures ALDONÇA (01T)
Dear Jim, Phil and All,
Please click on the link to see this rare TC thru the TERRA satellite lens...
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.cgi?T040861310
SPECTACULAR!!!
Oh btw, even though my site is focused on NWP and SCS basins, I decided to post it!!! Cool! :-)
Phil, I'm now creating a tracking chart which I used for the NWP TCs... Btw can you please give me the exact coordinates of some of the Brazilian cities near the coast which might get affected by ALDONÇA, if you're not busy?
Will be waiting for it...
Cheers,
Michael =;-)

From: "Simon Angell" To: Aussie-weather
Date: 03/27/2004 10:16 Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Fay and Tropical Storm 01T
Hi Phil et al.
Very nice storm that 01T - Hurricane ALDONÇA http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg
Seem to take everyone by surprise, will be interesting to see the follow up reports after the event has passed.
Simon

From: "Jane ONeill" To: <Aussie-weather
Date: 03/27/2004 10:23 Subject: aus-wx: Hurricane ALDONÇA was: TC Fay and Tropical Storm 01T
Interesting satpic from the 24th March 1320UTC - same storm further off the coast? http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.cgi?T040841320
The upper analysis over this are at 12Z 26th March is interesting. http://weather.unisys.com/aviation/init/avn_4panel_init_sam.html
I wonder if this system is a hybrid?
Cheers,
Jane

From: "Gavin O'Brien" To: Aussie-weather
Date: 03/27/2004 10:34 Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Fay and Tropical Storm 01T
Phil I agree on the Hurricane approaching Brazil. I can't help but wonder what the pattern is to allow such a development, We are watching the movement of Fay which is also proving quite an interesting event and getting some media coverage on ABC mainly. The people up there must be having a hard time.
Gavin
SSWW Canberra

From: "Gavin O'Brien" To: Aussie-weather
Date: 03/27/2004 10:36 Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC Fay and Tropical Storm 01T
Phil and Simon ,
Had a look at the Sat Pix, awesome, they will have to rewrite the textbooks after this one!
Gavin

From: Matthew Saxby To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 10:38 Subject: Re: Hurricane 01T
Dear Jim (and all),
> The south Atlantic is a separate basin so the name "Alex" should not be used. If anything military name maybe used as this is such a rare event.
> Jim

In which case it begs the question: Why are they using the code-letter for the "wrong" basin? Calling it 01L is going to get it confused with North Atlantic TC's, I
would think. Any comments, anyone?
MS

From: "Phil Smith" To: Aussie-weather
Date: 03/27/2004 10:48 Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hurricane ALDONÇA was: TC Fay and Tropical Storm 01T
Hi Jane and all,
This may have started life as a hybrid, but it is at this moment a full-scale Hurricane with fully tropical characteristics, whether the experts like it or not.
I have just a few minutes ago commenced a page devoted to it at http://www.drdisk.com.hk/aldonca.htm in an attempt to gather in one place a lot of the data and observations that are flying around in cyberspace regarding this system.
You will need to come back to the page again later as it will take me many hours to gather and format all the data I have saved.
Yes the picture you have linked to is the same storm which a bunch of us have been following since it first formed on about 22nd or 23rd March.
The latest run by UK Met is predicting that the storm will recurve and miss the Brazil coast, eventually dissipating at sea.
Phil
<><

From: "Typhoon2000.ph \(Michael Padua\)" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 11:00 Subject: Re: How can ALDONÇA be its Official Name???
Hi Phil,
Just got some coordinates @ weatherunderground.
thanks anyway,
Michael =;-)

From: Roger Edson To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 12:11 Subject: Re: Hurricane 01T
Matthew...and others,
This 'code-letter' is just a way to display the area for view...it has nothing to do with nothing...
Since I complained about not getting a MI views, the folks in Monterey (who maintain these views) created an area. Without reprogramming the whole thing, they just used what they got (it can easily be deleted or given a different number/letter by the time the Atlantic season starts).
Looks like its going to be a short life for Aldonça (01T) as it is very dry in the surrounding regions.
Also, looks like Oscar has just about had it too.
BTW, looking at the radar view of Fay coming on the coast shows why no one reported any strong winds...
Easily, it went in between sites (which happens all to frequently around the world). Of course, this is just like the analogy of a tree falling down in the woods and making any 'noise': i.e. I'm sure if you went along the coast to exactly where the eye came on shore, you WOULD see evidence of a major TC coming on shore (the IRbd seemed to hold its signature until the very last minute).
Roger

From: "Gavin O'Brien" To: Aussie-weather
Date: 03/27/2004 12:41 Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hurricane ALDONÇA
Phil,
I have e-mailed Clem Davis O I C of the ACT Met Office re the Hurricane to see what he thinks. We have a AGM of the AMOS (Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society ) Canberra branch on Wednesday at the ANU and I guess it will be a topic of discussion. We are expecting the new Director of the BOM as guest speaker that evening. I will post any responses later. Keep up the good work on your page, I read it before coming on line.
Gavin

From: Dosidicus To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 12:55 Subject: Re: How can ALDONÇA be its Official Name???
In a message dated 3/26/2004 7:36:07 PM Central Standard Time, [Michael] writes:
> This is like hunting comets.... I hope your coined name will be official!!
> Let's make it official to our group! I just added it over my site!

We may keep it within the group, but with caution...I know some people find names politically sensitive, especially when it comes to a non-RMC forecaster naming one...
-John

From: Dosidicus To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 13:00 Subject: Re: Hurricane 01T
In a message dated 3/26/2004 7:58:21 PM Central Standard Time, [Matthew] writes:
> But personally, I don't think "L" designators should be used for SATL systems. Either Julian's "nnT" or another letter would be a lot better, IMO. What do the rest of you think?

I agree--I go with "nnT". For what it's worth, though, I seriously doubt the NHC is influenced by the letter suffixes the Navy or whoever assigns to cyclones. Nor do I think they'll add it to the NHC's name list--that would open a huge political can of worms.
-John

From: Dosidicus To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 13:06 Subject: Re: How can ALDONÇA be its Official Name???
In a message dated 3/26/2004 8:01:44 PM Central Standard Time, [Phil] writes:
> I have even been wondering whether I ought to make a special page for this storm like I did for the Queensland Hybrid at the beginning of the month and just gather all of our comments and references together into one place.
> Phil

Sounds like a plan! Of course, we could also just put all our input into an (un)official report once the March global summary comes out...
-John

From: "Typhoon2000.ph \(Michael Padua\)" To: "Typhoon Gang" TCDGaldonca_trak.gif (26809 bytes)
Date: 03/27/2004 13:27 Subject: ALDONÇA's Track
Dear Phil and all,
Just uploaded over my site the tracking of Aldonça (01T) {also attached on this e-mail}. This is based on SSD positions plus the data I acquired thru the NRL site.
Regards,
Michael =;-)
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: "Typhoon2000.ph \(Michael Padua\)" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 13:34 Subject: Re: How can ALDONÇA be its Official Name???
What do you think Phil? Are we going to remove ALDONÇA?
Please advise...
Michael =;-)
----- Original Message -----
From: Dosidicus[snip]
> We may keep it within the group, but with caution...I know some people find names politically sensitive, especially when it comes to a non-RMC forecaster naming one...
> -John

From: Dosidicus To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 13:43 Subject: Re: ALDONÇA's Track (Herald Article)
Thanks much for the track!
Here's an article from the Miami Herald on this bad girl:
Surprise! Hurricane forms off Brazilian coast
By MARTIN MERZER
mmerzer AT herald DOT com
Extraordinarily surprised forecasters at the National Hurricane Centre scrambled Friday to help Brazilian meteorologists track the first hurricane ever reported in the South Atlantic.
The stealth hurricane, located about 275 miles off Brazil's southern coast, has no name because it's not supposed to be there. No one was even sure who was responsible to track it.
''It appears that we have our first ever South Atlantic hurricane, at least the first we know of,'' said Jack Beven, a forecaster at the hurricane centre in West Miami-Dade County. ``We're all kind of scratching our heads over here. We're not exactly geared up for this area.''
Data about the storm were scarce, but Beven said he believed it was a minimal Category 1 hurricane, with wind of 74-95 mph. It appeared to be drifting slowly toward Brazil, but it was too early to say if it would strike land.
He said forecasters at the hurricane centre were attempting to help Brazilian meteorologists, who may have other things to worry about but have never before seen a hurricane.
''We know there hasn't been a hurricane in that area since at least the satellite era, the mid-60s at the minimum,'' Beven said.
He emphasised that the storm was a meteorological curiosity and had nothing to do with South Florida's week of wind or chances of getting struck by a hurricane this year. Our six-month hurricane season begins June 1.
"This has no predictive value at all for the normal Atlantic season,'' he said.

link: http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/8286042.htm
P.S. I -- By the way, for the uninitiated, I think the name is pronounced "Al-don-sah".
P.S. II -- I can't believe no one's written up "Samba" yet, from last month(?)...

From: Dosidicus To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 13:44 Subject: Re: How can ALDONÇA be its Official Name???
I didn't mean that we shouldn't use the name, only that we should indicate that it's unofficial and not try to pass it off as it's "real" name...
-John

From: Jack Beven To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 13:57 Subject: Re: How can ALDONÇA be its Official Name???
Phil and all,
Phil Smith wrote:
[snip]
> I do notice that NRL are calling it 01L.NONAME, placing it in the Atlantic section, and I wonder whether they intend to just make it the first storm of this year's (North) Atlantic basin even though it is south of the Equator. NFMOC also refer to it as 01L.NONAME, but they place it in the Southern Hemisphere section of their page.
[snip]

01L came about during our attempts to run model guidance on the system. Our ATCF computer was choking on some of the other things we tried. We're not planning to give it a North Atlantic name.
We have been in contact with the meteorological service in Brazil and will likely continue to do so as long as the storm is a threat.
Jack Beven

From: "Michael V. Padua" To: "Typhoon Gang"
Date: 03/27/2004 14:00 Subject: Re: How can ALDONÇA be its Official Name???
Thanks John.... will add it on the track and on my site. :-)
Regards,
Michael =;-)
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"
----- Original Message -----
From: Dosidicus
> I didn't mean that we shouldn't use the name, only that we should indicate that it's unofficial and not try to pass it off as it's "real" name...
> -John

From: "Michael V. Padua" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 14:03 Subject: Hurricane 01T catches CNN News Bureau!!!
Dear All,
Just browsing CNN and alas, "Aldonça" is on their site!!!  http://edition.cnn.com/2004/WEATHER/03/26/hurricane.brazil.reut/index.html
Ciao =;-)
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: "Michael V. Padua" To: "Typhoon Gang"
Date: 03/27/2004 14:17 Subject: VAMEI and 01T: The Law Breakers!!!
Dear All,
As we have seen the turn of the century, 2 unique TCs has broken the Law of TC formation. VAMEI and 01T (ALDONÇA). Are there still laws that meant to be broken?
Need your comments.
"Thunderously",
Michael =;-)
P.S. - I hope National Geographic Channel will make a documentary out of these rare ones including Mediterranean Cyclones.
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: "Phil Smith" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 14:40 Subject: Re: How can ALDONÇA be its Official Name???
Hi Michael and all,
I have been flat out today gathering all of our discussions into one place and progressively adding it to http://www.drdisk.com.hk/aldonca.htm   for future reference.
I am removing everybody's e-mail addresses and personal references.
If anyone has other pictures or obs that ought to be kept here for the future, please send them to me noting the time and date so I can best place them on the page.
Thanks,
Phil
<><

From: "Phil Smith" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 15:01 Subject: Re: How can ALDONÇA be its Official Name???
Hi Michael and all,
I have just added the words "[unofficial name]" after the name "Aldonça" on my page.
When I get a chance to write a bit more of a summary at the top of the page, I shall mention how it got its unofficial name.
Phil
<><
-----Original Message-----
From: "Typhoon2000.ph \(Michael Padua\)"
[snip]
> What do you think Phil? Are we going to remove ALDONÇA?
> Please advise...
> Michael =;-)

From: Roger Edson To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 15:08 Subject: Re: How can ALDONÇA be its Official Name???
Come on you guys...my name is as good as anyone else's. There is NO official forecast agency, so first come first serve.
Aldonça it is!
Roger

From: "Phil Smith" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 15:25 Subject: ALDONÇA (Fwd: aus-wx: ASWA Victoria meeting 22nd May)
That name is sure getting around! See the attached notice for the next ASWA meeting:
Phil
<><
> -----Original Message-----
> From: "ASWA Victoria" To: "Aussie-wx"
Date: Sat, 27 Mar 2004 17:23:40 +1100 Subject: aus-wx: ASWA Victoria meeting 22nd May
Put it in your diary...updates to follow. This will be a great meeting!!
---------------------------------------->>>
The next Victorian ASWA meeting will be held on Saturday May 22 at the Pancake Parlour, Doncaster Road, Doncaster beginning at ~8.30am with breakfast and bragging (bring your photos and well as your appetite).
Presentations will commence ~9.45am
[snip].
**Presentations**
- Tropical oddities
TC Vamei - a near equator typhoon (December 2001)
Hurricane Aldonça - first known South Atlantic hurricane of modern times (March 2004)
- Pictorial history of TC Fay - A Lethal Slowcoach
- Special Guest Speaker - Kevin Parkyn (Manager, Severe Weather, BoM Melbourne)
[snip]
Regards your state reps,
Clyve Herbert & Andrew McDonald
[snip]

From: Roger Edson To: Typhoon Gang TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 15:35 Subject: Reuters Report on Aldonça
Hi,
Again, another report, from Reuters this time. See they took the CNN report with the interview with Eric, but went one step forward and contacted the Brazilians.
I love the quote: 'our information indicates it is not a hurricane'.....(almost sounds like an old NHC report...ha ha)
and: 'not very unusual' and 'no preparations were made'
BUT, to be realistic, I figure that with a skimpy thing like this TC under these kinds of tenuous environmental condition, it would almost be a miracle for this thing to reach the coast. AND THEN, it has to 'hit' something that would have people take notice (remember my previous comment on STC Fay!!).
Which also brings back my point for lack of previous data--either no reports or no one knew (prior to the satellite era knew what hit them).
Oh well.
Roger
He said the storm was a Category 1 hurricane -- the least powerful on forecasters' five-level scale -- with winds somewhere between 74 and 95 miles per hour.
"It's about 225 miles east-southeast of the Brazilian coast and it's moving westward at about 7 miles per hour," he said.
Blake said some of the forecasting computer models showed the storm turning away from the coast before making landfall, but he said it was too soon to say if
that would happen.
"It has an eye and thunderstorms around the centre, and we're looking at the possibility of (landfall in) southeast Brazil sometime tomorrow or the next day," he said.
However, Brazil's state Weather Forecasting and Climatic Studies Centre (CPTEC) played down the U.S. hurricane classification.
"Our information shows that it is not a hurricane. We still classify it as a tropical cyclone," Virginia Nogueira, a duty meteorologist, told Reuters.
"The forecast is that it will come closer to the coast, provoking rains in the southern states of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, and strong winds, but not causing anything very unusual," she said.
Ports in southern Brazil said earlier no preparations were being made for the storm and work continued as usual.

From: "Michael V. Padua" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 18:25 Subject: Re: How can ALDONÇA be its Official Name???
Dear Jack,
Any plans of initiating Public Warnings either by NHC or INMET?
Thanks,
Michael =;-)
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 19:02 Subject: Re: Hurricane 01T
Matthew wrote:
> I notice that our rare bird has been given "01L" by NLMRY, yet no name from the "L" list. By rights, it should be "Alex", to go with 01L. I wonder if NLMRY's use of 01L is going to affect NHC's numbering when the NATL becomes active? But personally, I don't think "L" designators should be used for SATL systems. Either Julian's "nnT" or another letter would be a lot better, IMO. What do the rest of you think?
Agree that Julian's 01T designator is better than 01L, since the "L" suffixes have heretofore been only used with North Atlantic systems. Certainly don't think it should have been Alex as that is a North Atlantic name to be applied by NHC, who has no warning responsibility for the South Atlantic.
> BTW, I'll go with "Aldonça", unless it's officially decided to name the poor thing from the NATL list.
So far the suggested names I've seen are: Aldonça, Alcides, Adam, Alpha, Advent, so take your pick.
> And I'm beginning to wonder -- now that it seems it's been acknowledged the SATL does spawn TC's, when will we see our first-ever cross-equatorial Atlantic twin? Now, that would be something! Anything's possible...
Well, not with high-latitude systems such as this. Those only occur with very low-latitude systems in a monsoon trough.

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 19:07 Subject: Re: TERRA captures ALDONÇA (01T)
Here is a table with coordinates of Brazilian cities;
http://www.world-gazetteer.com/fr/fr_br.htm
----- Original Message -----
From: "Typhoon2000.ph (Michael Padua)"
> Dear Jim, Phil and All,
[snip]
> Phil, I'm now creating a tracking chart which I used for the NWP TCs... Btw can you please give me the exact coordinates of some of the Brazilian cities  near the coast which might get affected by ALDONÇA, if you're not busy?
> Will be waiting for it...
> Cheers,
> Michael =;-)

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 19:11 Subject: Re: Hurricane 01T
> > The south Atlantic is a separate basin so the name "Alex" should not be used. If anything military name maybe used as this is such a rare event.
> > Jim
> In which case it begs the question: Why are they using the code-letter for the "wrong" basin? Calling it 01L is going to get it confused with North Atlantic TC's, I would think. Any comments, anyone?

That was NRL's way of designating it, and they had to have a letter to follow the number, and since there was no military reg covering the South Atlantic, they just used "L". Note that NHC does not use "L" in their warnings for North Atlantic cyclones.

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 19:20 Subject: Re: ALDONÇA's Track
Michael,
Thanks for creating that. Keep it updated.
Gary
----- Original Message -----
From: "Typhoon2000.ph (Michael Padua)"
> Dear Phil and all,
> Just uploaded over my site the tracking of Aldonça (01T) {also attached on this e-mail}. This is based on SSD positions plus the data I acquired thru the NRL site.
> Regards,
> Michael =;-)
> "Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 19:22 Subject: Re: ALDONÇA's Track (Herald Article)
>P.S. II -- I can't believe no one's written up "Samba" yet, from last month(?)...
"Samba" will be written up for the January summary.

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 19:44 Subject: Re: Reuters Report on Aldonça
> I love the quote: 'our information indicates it is not a hurricane'.....(almost sounds like an old NHC report...ha ha)
> and: 'not very unusual' and 'no preparations were made'

That attitude could be due to two reasons:
(1) They truly don't believe (or want to believe) that they can have tropical cyclones in their neck of the woods, and since they've obviously had no experience with them, it's easy to take an off-hand approach.
(2) Or it could be they're afraid of mass panic if the dreaded H-word is used. I once was acquainted with a former AF meteorologist at Eglin who'd been stationed somewhere in Europe when the Sept, 1983, Med. hurricane formed. It posed a threat to Italy, and he told me that the Italian met. service pleaded with them not to call it a hurricane.
Most people who've never dealt with and don't follow hurricanes automatically think a hurricane means damage like Andrew or Hugo or Camille.

From: "Typhoon2000.ph \(Michael Padua\)" To: "Typhoon Gang" aldonca2.jpg (129833 bytes)
Date: 03/27/2004 20:00 Subject: ALDONÇA Enhanced NRL Image
Dear All,
As the Sun rose along the Brazilian Coast, I enhanced today's first NRL VIS GOES-12 Image of 01L. The result: An spectacular image!!!
Enjoy the view!
Thunderously,
Michael =;-)
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: "Typhoon2000.ph \(Michael Padua\)" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 20:05 Subject: Re: TERRA captures ALDONÇA (01T)
Thanks Gary,
The site is cool. [snip]
Michael =;-)
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"
----- Original Message -----
From: "Gary Padgett"
> Here is a table with coordinates of Brazilian cities;
http://www.world-gazetteer.com/fr/fr_br.htm

From: "huangchunliang" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 21:07 Subject: RE: VAMEI and 01T: The Law Breakers!!!
I'm glorying in my being the one who has first (at least in our group) discovered both the supernatuals when they're still babies :))
Not too bad for the Portuguese name "ALDONÇA", though it appears to be a challenge for my tongue to pronounce the word...what about "HUANG"? Seems much better IMO...just kidding! :p
To be serious, "VAMEI" has turned out to be the first typhoon name that was retired for its breaking the "physical laws", which presents a striking contrast to 01T, for which we have to face a Fine How-Do-You-Do now that the current law-breaker rotating to her heart's content over the "unseemly" water has never any official name to be retired!!!
Cheers,
Huang Chunliang
>From: "Michael V. Padua"
>Dear All,
>As we have seen the turn of the century, 2 unique TCs has broken the Law of TC formation. VAMEI and 01T (ALDONÇA). Are there still laws that meant to be broken?
>Need your comments.
>"Thunderously",
>Michael =;-)

From: "Michael V. Padua" To: "Typhoon Gang" aldonca_trak2.gif (30684 bytes)
Date: 03/27/2004 21:08 Subject: ALDONÇA/01T Track#02 [06Z 27 March 2004]
Dear Guys,
Attached/Link is the latest Track for ALDONÇA....
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

From: "Adrian Garcia" To: [snip]  Cc: TCDGVis-IR w positions.jpg (93773 bytes)
Date: 03/27/2004 22:13 Subject: South Atlantic Hurricane Nears Land
Hi all,
Attached is the latest Visible/IR image. I have overlayed 4 positions showing the general track of the hurricane over the last 24 hours.
On the image you will see where Porto Alegre is. I have included the following information about the city. The info is from the following site
http://darkwing.uoregon.edu/~sergiok/brasil/portoalegre.html
"Porto Alegre, the largest city in southern Brazil, is the capital of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, land of the Gauchos, and churrasco. The city, located on the Guaiba River, was founded in 1742 by immigrants from the Azores. Since the 19th century the city has received numerous from other parts of the world, particularly Germany, Poland, and Italy. Located at the junction of five rivers, it has become an important alluvial port as well as one of the chief industrial and commercial centres in Brazil. With the advent of the Mercosul accord it should grow and prosper. Products of the rich agricultural and pastoral hinterland, such as soybeans, leather, canned beef, and rice, are exported from Porto Alegre to destinations as far away as Africa and Japan. It has a population of about 1,500,000 inhabitants."
Again here are a couple of Satellite Loops:
****RGB Loop**** http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/rgb-loop.html
Visible Loop  http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Enhanced IR  http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
Dvorak IR  http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-bd-loop.html
Water Vapour  http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
Also:
Latest 12 images (Java Animation)  http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/burn/wfabba/wfabba_sbrazil__last.html
Previous 12 images (Java Animation)  http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/burn/wfabba/wfabba_sbrazil__prev.html
Image Index  http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/burn/data/rtloopregional/sbrazil_/
Enjoy,
Adrian Garcia

From: "Eric Blake" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 23:19 Subject: RE: Reuters Report on Aldonça
I really started laughing when I saw the quote as well.. It sounded like some standard government line reassuring people that it is not a hurricane... they do not know what they are getting into, especially if it hits Porto Alegre. A quickie extrapolation puts it on the coast tomorrow morning. Upper-level winds don't look unfavourable... less than 10 kt.. so there is no apparent reason it would weaken while straddling the 74F isotherm.
Eric
>From: Roger Edson
[snip]
>I love the quote: 'our information indicates it is not a hurricane'.....(almost sounds like an old NHC report...ha ha)
[snip]
>Roger

From: "Eric Blake" To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 23:25 Subject: RE: name
I think Roger's idea is reasonable... but ALDONÇA will never fly, especially if it has not been okayed by the WMO or some regional weather authority.
Hell Brazil will probably not admit it (was) a hurricane. The unnamed March hurricane of March 2003 will all it goes by-- my prediction. You just can't go naming things without authority. Maybe this system will inspire some agency to issue advisories... there is talk about studying it at TPC.
Eric
>From: "Phil Smith"
>That name is sure getting around! See the attached notice for the next ASWA meeting:
>Phil

From: Roger Edson To: TCDG
Date: 03/27/2004 23:50 Subject: RE: name
As for the name 'flying' who cares....
Since there is NO official TC forecast centre in the S. Atlantic, there can be no official name (so, no authority is necessary).
I don't think any of the JTWC names were ever 'officially' oked by anyone but our little group---and then they went to the Navy at the CINCPAC commanders conference: how else did we get Typhoons Frank, Babs, Mark, Chip.....etc etc etc.
Anyway, I might have been wrong thinking the darn thing would weaken, since it is still going strong...
Here is the Brazilian weather site, and the local radar for the area (but can't figure out if the radar at Morro da Igreja is up or not):
http://www.redemet.aer.mil.br/radar_novo.php?radar=morro_da_igreja
BTW, I have a tentative best track for the entire life of the system...from when it moved off the coast on the 20th at 25S 48W (as an extratropical low), to when it got cut off on the 22nd at 32S 36W, to when it reached a 'good enough' tropical characteristic to be classified at 25/06Z at 29.0S 40.5W.
Roger
--- Eric Blake [snip] wrote:
> I think Roger's idea is reasonable... but ALDONÇA ...

Sunday 28th March 2004      NAVIGATION: MARCH: 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, APRIL: 01, 02, 03

From: "Eric Blake" To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 00:06 Subject: s atlc hur/global pattern
thanks for the radar link... it will be obviously later today I suppose if it is working..
as far as weakening goes.. there is nothing on the large-scale GFS model that would kill it immediately... it is sitting under a ridge axis... the only concern is that the shear would become southwesterly, but less than 20 kt.. and I suppose marginal systems could be affecting more significantly than other TC events.
I'd like to save your best track if TPC eventually writes this system up..
also... I think is peculiar to look at all the lows around 30n over the globe right now.. a system NW of the canary islands.. something forming in the w-central atlc... something NW of Hawaii.. I wonder how it is all connected. there is even a hint of something extra-tropical dropping to about 30n in the GFS and hanging around.. at about 50-60w.. that would be an interesting "twin" situation! (highly unlikely)

From: Roger Edson To: Typhoon Gang TCDG 20Mar1200vis and scat ret.jpg (49818 bytes)
Date: 03/28/2004 00:09 Subject: Initial image of Aldonça
Hi,
Just a taste...
Here is a nice visual of the low pressure/vort area coming off of the coast of Brazil on the 20th. The scat is from 8 hours later....
The surface low formed on/along the coast 24 hours earlier further south and then moved northward following the coast until it finally moved off (like many of extratropical system). It did not look very tropical until after 25/06Z as the frontal boundary further equatorward looked pretty vigorous.
Roger

From: Dickson Fu To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 00:18 Subject: Brazilian scientists disagreed
Hi all,
let's look at this. The local authority said it's actually an "extra-tropical cyclone". What do you think?
http://www.cnn.com/2004/WEATHER/03/27/brazil.hurricane.ap/index.html
Regards,
Dickson

From: Roger Edson To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 00:23 Subject: Re: Brazilian scientists disagreed
Definitely a case of 'looks like a duck'....
(Boy, Eric, I hope you don't get into trouble on this...) I hate those 'quotes'...
Roger

From: Carl Smith To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 00:26 Subject: RE: name
Given that ALDONÇA is now being used in some public discussion forums, and is already on a few websites, the chances of the mainstream media picking it up somewhere increase by the hour. If it does clobber Brazil and the media get hold of the name, it will flash round the globe in a few hours and become the public name, even if 'the authorities' stick their heads in the sand and refuse to acknowledge it.
Regards,
Carl.

From: "Konon, Boris" To: "TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 01:05 Subject: KGWC Dvorak Estimate Now to T5.0 for S ATL TC
TPNT KGWC 271525
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC
B. 27/1431Z (19)
C. 29.5S/6
D. 46.8W/8
E. FOUR/GOES12
F. T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS -27/1130Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
07A/ PBO 20NM IRREG EYE/ANMTN.
RUNDIO

Note how they avoided any number-letter assignment! Probably a good idea for now!
"Tropical Cyclone" is used instead of "Hurricane" as well. Leaves it a bit open ended (TD, TS, or Hur?), again probably a good idea until we see exactly how this all pans out.
Here is a great GOES-12 visible image from Friday. http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Current/TRCunknown086_G12.jpg
Boris

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 01:11 Subject: Re: name
Roger,
> BTW, I have a tentative best track for the entire life of the system...from when it moved off the coast on the 20th at 25S 48W (as an extratropical low), to when it got cut off on the 22nd at 32S 36W, to when it reached a 'good enough' tropical characteristic to be classified at 25/06Z at 29.0S 40.5W.
Would appreciate if you'd send it to me. I've got a partial best track from David starting on the 22nd.
Tks,
Gary

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 01:20 Subject: Re: Brazilian scientists disagreed
It's laughable. That article said the storm has already hit the coast, when the centre is clearly still well at sea. What experience has the meteorologist that was quoted in tropical cyclone analysis? Likely zip. And of course there are probably some scientists who would hesitate to call any system of extratropical origin a tropical cyclone. It took forecasters at NHC several years to begin doing so in the late 1960s/early 1970s.
----- Original Message -----
> let's look at this. The local authority said it's actually an "extra-tropical cyclone". What do you think?
> http://www.cnn.com/2004/WEATHER/03/27/brazil.hurricane.ap/index.html
> Regards,
> Dickson

From: "DinanR" [Brazilian e-mail address] To: "Phil Smith"
Sent: Sunday, March 28, 2004 1:33 AM Subject: Storm name in Brazil (not received until about 03/28/2004 21:00)
Here in Brazil the storm is called " Catarina" .
Dinan

From: "David Roth" To: garyp@[snip]
Date: 03/28/2004 01:52 Subject: The ongoing hurricane nearing Brazil
Wish I was on day shifts...you never know if one of their meteorologists actually went through a tour at HPC's International Desk. Regardless, this is probably something new to them. It's a shame they've been thrown into the heat of the kitchen without any apparent preparation.
When I get some time after the surface analysis pow-wow in early April, it could be timely to take a look at the South American slices of the GOES East imagery we (at the WWB, SAB archive) has in archive downstairs, which overall spans from about 1980 to 1995. If I find something similar during my fishing expedition, I'll let you all know
and scan/post/link to the image.
I'm sure this is unusual...not something that happens every year...but I think this had to have happened before just like others on the group...perhaps not hitting land. I remember a couple "short timers" here who used to work for SAB long ago mentioning one of these TC-like creatures being spotted in the south Atlantic around the mid 1970s. One is now retired...the other retires in a month. Will have to dig for more info.
I know SAB is interested in doing a paper or study on this storm as well and has been collecting all the imagery it can for this event.  I'm certainly intrigued due to its occluded cyclone/subtropical origins; looks like a typical transition like what Olga and Kyle went through in 2002. It's nice to know converted STs rarely become major hurricanes, in the North Atlantic anyway.
Looking forward to the South Atlantic Hurricane conference next spring (jk),
DR

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 02:00 Subject: Re: s atlc hur/global pattern
I totally agree with Roger. The name? Is it so important?
Brazil would not agree to name it for whatever reasons and now they reckon it is not tropical.
The number and the ocean basin are what matter.
Patrick

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 02:08 Subject: Re: RE: Reuters Report on Aldonça
I suspect there is more to it and it bowls down to politics (?) again or at least prejudices.
As the bulk of the interest and analysis are coming from the US (NAVY) it may be irritating especially to Brazil ...
They probably do not want to be lectured on but when you do not really know what you are talking about you should rely on other people's well recognized expertise.
Patrick

From: "Adrian Garcia" To: TCDGRGB Latest Image.jpg (63492 bytes)
Date: 03/28/2004 02:45 Subject: Re: Brazilian scientists disagreed
Hi all,
What experience does this supposed scientist have, in Brazil, to call this hurricane an "extra tropical cyclone."
I don't think there is any debate that this is a hurricane. It may have come from extra tropical origins but it definitely is a hurricane right now (see attached picture.) Note, this hurricane could be a lot stronger than the conservative estimate of 85mph.
Regards,
Adrian

From: "Bill Ward" To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 03:10 Subject: Re: Brazilian scientists disagreed
Adrian,
Please be careful with how you address people, you never know who you are addressing. It is amazing how far reaching e-mail can be. Everyone has their own opinion. The best we can do as a group or as scientists is to prove things to others scientifically and professionally. It certainly looks and acts like a hurricane. I haven't done a Dvorak analysis on it as of yet or seen true observed data either, so I will sit back and wait to see what comes in. This cyclone will be looked at and commented on for years to come...not to mention the great number of research papers that will be forth coming.
Thanks for listening,
Bill

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 04:34 Subject: Re: The ongoing hurricane nearing Brazil
David Roth wrote:
> When I get some time after the surface analysis pow-wow in early April, it could be timely to take a look at the South American slices of the GOES East imagery we (at the WWB, SAB archive) has in archive downstairs, which overall spans from about 1980 to 1995. If I find something similar during my fishing expedition, I'll let you all know and scan/post/link to the image.
Great idea!!
> I'm sure this is unusual...not something that happens every year...but I think this had to have happened before just like others on the group...perhaps not hitting land. I remember a couple "short timers" here who used to work for SAB long ago mentioning one of these TC-like creatures being spotted in the south Atlantic around the mid 1970s. One is now retired...the other retires in a month. Will have to dig for more info.
It's been a long time, but I distinctly remember sometime around late 1975/early 1976, listening to some meteorologist talking with the TV weatherman on an area station, and he stated that there'd been a hurricane observed in the South Atlantic Ocean. That was all that was said and I never learned anymore details. I eventually just filed it away as an error until April, 1991 happened.
> I know SAB is interested in doing a paper or study on this storm as well and has been collecting all the imagery it can for this event. I'm certainly intrigued due to its occluded cyclone/subtropical origins; looks like a typical transition like what Olga and Kyle went through in 2002. It's nice to know converted STs rarely become major hurricanes, in the North Atlantic anyway.
Olga was in 2001. :)
> Looking forward to the South Atlantic Hurricane conference next spring (jk),
Let's have one, maybe in Ft. Walton Beach. I'll make all the arrangements. :)

From: "Eric Blake" To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 05:44 Subject: Re: Brazilian scientists disagreed
I'll have to respectfully disagree with you Bill...
Both SAB and TAFB are classifying the system as T4.5, meaning 77 knots sustained. Independent microwave estimates put the pressure at around 980 mb. This is a classic transition of a baroclinic features into a tropical one, similar to Karen of ... 2001 I believe. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001karen.html
Scatterometer data also shows a tight wind centre. I think 99% of hurricane experts would say that this is a hurricane. I think the major problem is that they have never seen anything quite this and people are scrambling. I really hope it doesn't hit at this intensity otherwise I fear people living on the coast could be in some danger from the surge.
Eric

From: Roger Edson To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 06:44 Subject: Re: name
Will do...when I finish it (already spent too much time on this thing...) roger
--- Gary Padgett <garyp wrote:
> Roger,
[snip]
> Would appreciate if you'd send it to me. I've got a partial best track from David starting on the 22nd.
> Tks,
> Gary

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 06:57 Subject: TC 01T
I have managed to complete my MI database for this South Atlantic TC, thanks to FNMOC and Monterey although it is a pity the archive only begin by early 26.
The very latest overpass from F13 a little more than 1h ago seems unequivocal . This definitely looks like a TC albeit the tops around the eye do not appear to be very cold.
Torres (29.3s 49.7w) would be the synop to watch but it has not been updated since 12UTC, 15 local.
Patrick
Updated: 3:00 PM BRT on March 27, 2004
Observed at Torres, Brazil 29.3s 49.7w
Temperature 78 °F / 26 °C
Humidity 77%
Dew Point 71 °F / 22 °C
Wind South at 16 mph / 25.7 km/h
Wind Gust -
Pressure 29.88 in / 1012 hPa
Conditions Haze
Visibility 2.49 miles / 4.00 kilometres

From: Roger Edson To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 07:02 Subject: Re: Brazilian scientists disagreed
Agree with Eric!
There are people out there that still want 'proof' that we landed on the moon!
Roger
--- Eric Blake  wrote:
> I'll have to respectfully disagree with you Bill...

From: Roger Edson To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 07:06 Subject: Re: TC 01T
NOW for a meteorological question:
Is it possible that the 'pattern' in either the EIR or MI will not produce the same winds, IF the tops (convection) are not as vigorous as compared to the Dvorak data base?
(fortunately don't have to worry about this in either the scatterometer or AMSU temp data).
quack quack (duck)
Roger

From: "Typhoon2000.com \(Michael Padua\)" To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 08:48 Subject: Re: TERRA captures ALDONÇA (01T)
Thanks Gary,
Just woke up and oh boy... we got another invest area near 160E...That will be cool... For the meantime, our attention is now on 01T. It is now approaching Porto Alegre! Will do some tracking later.
Regards,
Michael =;-)
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: "Michael V. Padua" To: "TC Group"
Date: 03/28/2004 09:52 Subject: Will NHC send Investigation Team to Brazil?
Hi Jack and Eric,
Are there plans of going to Brazil to investigate the areas soon to be struck by this rare TC?
Michael =;-)
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: "Adrian Garcia" To: [snip] Cc: TCDGS Atlantic Hurricane.jpg (140506 bytes)
Date: 03/28/2004 10:00 Subject: South Atlantic Hurricane -- Landfall Imminent! -- Coastal Cities Map
Hi all,
With landfall just a few hours away, I have attached a coastal cities map of the threatened area.
Also here is the latest Colour IR Animation: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
Regards,
Adrian

From: "Typhoon2000.com \(Michael Padua\)" To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 10:19 Subject: Re: South Atlantic Hurricane -- Landfall Imminent! -- Coastal Cities Map
Thanks for that nice map/sat attachments! It looks like Ararangua and Sombrio will feel the fury of this storm!
Will see!
Michael =;-)
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 10:26 Subject: TC 01T
last two MI positions:
AQUA1 at 1630UTC: 29.5s 47.2w
F14 at 2253utc : 29.5s 48.1w
The estimated intensity is now set at 75kt.
Torres is reacting to the approaching TC but will the cyclone make landfall( let's presume it will make landfall in the first place) too far to the south of the town. The winds have already shifted to the SW there.
Is anybody kind enough to point out to me the radar link?
Thanks
Patrick
Updated: 9:00 PM BRT on March 27, 2004Color IR.jpg (46860 bytes)
Observed at Torres, Brazil 29.3s 49.7w
Temperature 72 °F / 22 °C
Humidity 94%
Dew Point 71 °F / 21 °C
Wind SW at 20 mph / 32.2 km/h
Wind Gust -
Pressure 29.80 in / 1009 hPa
Conditions Overcast
Visibility 1.24 miles / 2.00 kilometres

Updated: 3:00 PM BRT on March 27, 2004
Observed at Torres, Brazil 29.3s 49.7w
Temperature 78 °F / 26 °C
Humidity 77%
Dew Point 71 °F / 22 °C
Wind South at 16 mph / 25.7 km/h
Wind Gust -
Pressure 29.88 in / 1012 hPa
Conditions Haze
Visibility 2.49 miles / 4.00
kilometres

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 10:51 Subject: Re: TC 01T
It was mentioned that MODIS captured the cyclone on the 26th at 1310utc; the image is in the gallery on the site. But if you go to the real time section for the same date and time you will be able to download colorized versions of the visible which are beautiful.
Patrick
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.cgi?2004086/crefl1_367.A2004086131000-2004086131500.1km.jpg
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.cgi?2004086/crefl1_721.A2004086131000-2004086131500.1km.jpg

From: "Typhoon2000.com \(Michael Padua\)" To: "TC Group" aldonca_trak3.gif (30085 bytes)
Date: 03/28/2004 11:00 Subject: ALDONÇA/01T Track #03 [23:09 UTC 27 March 2004]
Hi all,
Typhoon2000.com Track #03 of the Brazilian Hurricane as it nears Torres, Brazil...
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 11:08 Subject: Re: ALDONÇA/01T Track #03 [23:09 UTC 27 March 2004]
Well done Mike.
Cheers
Patrick

From: Roger Edson To: Typhoon Gang TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 11:09 Subject: Fwd: Hurricane Aldonça (01T) landfall
(again, also sent to our tropical bulletin board--same 'warning', though)
btw, the radar site I gave was not updating
Roger
> Hi,
> Please remember the name (Aldonça)and number (01T) are not 'official' (but my choice...). Since this is a 'closed' e-mail list, I assume that this stays within our group--only!
> If you speak Portuguese, here is their MET offices' latest 'warning':
> Aviso Meteorológico Especial No. 22 Baixa pressão atmosférica sobre o oceano Atlântico, evoluiu para uma tempestade tropical que já atua sobre o leste do estado de Santa Catarina, e atingirá o nordeste e leste do estado do Rio Grande do Sul, a partir das 00h do dia 28/03/2004, ocasionando chuvas e ventos fortes no quandrante sudeste a sul.
> CAPRE/INMET/Brasília

> I have also attached my latest MI and SCAT composite.
> Everything fits nicely as the SSMI time was almost exactly the same as the scat pass.
> I used the ambiguities to prepare the streamline with the help of the NRCS image and the latest sat imagery.
> This means that these directions (which are different from the automated 'ambiguity selection' routine) are EQUALLY LEGITIMATE! Ambiguity solutions are not violated in this selection--and this process SHOULD be evaluated by anyone who is trying to use the QuikSCAT data for either operations or research (especially you guys trying to pull out vorticity calculations from these wind data!).
> Let's hope that the strongest winds are confined to a very small portion of the coast---which, of course, will give the Brazilian's an 'out' if the eye wall misses any wind recording stations.
> Roger
> --- "Brian D. McNoldy" wrote:27Mar2135 37colo fnmocstreams WINDS sizer ret.jpg (39774 bytes)
> > As of 0200 UTC on 28 March, Hurricane 01L (a.k.a. Alpha, Adam, Advent, Aldonça, etc) is very close to making landfall on the southern Brazilian coast.
It still appears to be of nearly CAT2 intensity with a large clear eye and complete eyewall. The outer rainbands have already affected the states of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, and is about to make landfall between the cities of Porto Alegre (3.8 million people in metro area) and Florianopolis (0.9 million people in metro area)... very near Criciuma (160,000 within the city).
> > Looks like it will pass about 200km away from each of the big cities, but hit the smaller city almost directly. It's hard to be prepared for something that has never(?) happened before, but the sense I got was that there was little effort to warn or prepare the people there. I hope the public was more aware of the threat than what the CNN article that Tony Cristaldi pointed out indicated.
> > (population figures are from http://www.citypopulation.de/Brazil.html)
> > (CNN article is at http://www.cnn.com/2004/WEATHER/03/27/brazil.hurricane.ap/)
> > One for the books...
> > Brian

From: "Michael V. Padua" To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 11:21 Subject: Re: Hurricane Aldonça (01T) landfall
To all non-Portuguese TCDG members,
Here's the translated version via altavista.com:
Meteorological acknowledgment Special No. 22
Low atmospheric pressure on the Atlantic Ocean, evolved for a tropical storm that already acts on the east of the state of Santa Catarina, and will reach northeast and east of the state of the Rio Grande Do Sul, to leave of 00h of day 28/03/2004, causing to rains and strong winds in the Southeastern quandrante the south.

"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: "Adrian Garcia" To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 11:44 Subject: Re: Brazilian scientists disagreed (Great News Article)
Hi all,
Below is an article from the following site http://www.elkodaily.com/articles/2004/03/27/ap/Headlines/d81j2kkg0.txt showing the lack of concern in brazil and efforts not to panic the Brazilian population. Here is a quick excerpt from the article:
"Winds and rains will not be significant, so we don't need to alarm the population," said meteorologist Dr. Gustavo Escobar of the Brazilian Centre for Weather Prediction and Climatic Studies.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
"Powerful Storm Hits Southern Brazil Coast
By BERND RADOWITZ
RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil - A large storm spiralled toward southern Brazil on Saturday as a debate raged between Brazilian and U.S. meteorologists over whether it was a hurricane.
The U.S. National Hurricane Centre in Florida estimated the storm was a full-fledged, Category I hurricane with winds of between 75 and 80 mph, making it the first hurricane ever spotted in the South Atlantic. AccuWeather, Inc., a private forecasting company, said it also considered the storm a hurricane.
Brazilian scientists disagreed, saying the storm had top winds of 50 to 56 mph, far below the 75 mph threshold of a hurricane. The state of Santa Catarina put its civil defence on alert Saturday night, warning of high waves.
The U.S. forecasters said the worst part of the storm would hit Brazil early Sunday somewhere between the cities of Florianopolis and Porto Allegre, a span of about 130 miles. The Brazilians said the storm could peter out before then.
"Winds and rains will not be significant, so we don't need to alarm the population," said meteorologist Dr. Gustavo Escobar of the Brazilian Centre for Weather Prediction and Climatic Studies.
U.S. scientists said they were baffled by the Brazilian position.
"We think the Brazilians are, quite frankly, out to lunch on this one," said Michael Sager, an AccuWeather meteorologist. "I think they're trying to play it down and not cause a panic. I don't know what they're doing, but they're obviously wrong."
All sides said they were basing their estimates on satellite data, since the United States has no hurricane hunter airplanes in the area and Brazil doesn't own any.
Satellite images showed a spiral-shaped mass of clouds with an open area in the centre. Escobar called it an "extra-tropical cyclone."
Sager said the storm had a clear, well-defined eye and that it had lasted for more than 36 hours. Storms that are not hurricane-strength sometimes form strong eyes, but not for that long, he said.
Kelen Andrade, another meteorologist with the Brazilian centre, said the storm was swirling only in a clockwise motion and was not showing motion in the opposite direction at higher altitudes, another mark of a hurricane. Sager disagreed.
"If you know what you're looking at, you can see that counterrotating quite readily," he said.
He predicted the storm would make landfall at hurricane strength just before dawn near the town of Torres.
Earlier Saturday, the outer edges of the storm brushed the coast of Brazil's southern Santa Catarina state with winds estimated at about 25-30 mph and moderate rains, Escobar said. The area is about 430 miles south of Rio de Janeiro.
Winds in nearby Florianopolis, a city of 700,000, were only about 12 mph, rainfall was mild, and no damage was reported, said meteorologist Kelen Andrade.
Jack Beven, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Centre in Miami, said the eye of the storm was near 29 degrees south latitude and 48 degrees west longitude by Saturday evening. That would place it about 50 miles east of the city of Laguna.
"To us, it has all the satellite appearance and intensity of a hurricane," Beven said. "I don't know what data (the Brazilians) are looking at. They may have data services locally that don't go out on the national data service."
He said no agency is sending out regular hurricane advisories on the storm.
"Down there, this is such a rare and unique event. The whole situation is strange," Beven said. "We're trying to help out, but because of the uniqueness of this event, it may be out of their expertise to some degree."

From: Roger Edson To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 12:19 Subject: Re: Hurricane Aldonça (01T) landfall
Great work!! I figured it said something like that (so they are now calling it a 'tropical storm'...just fine (any kind of warning is better than none!!).
Roger

From: "Adrian Garcia" To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 12:20 Subject: Brazil denies hurricane, but braces for winds
27 Mar 2004 20:16:44 GMT
Brazil denies hurricane, but braces for winds
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil, March 27 (Reuters) - Brazil's official weather service on Saturday said a cyclone with strong winds and rain was approaching its southern area, but denied it was a hurricane as U.S. meteorologists said earlier.
"Brazil has never had hurricanes and it is not having one now," said Kelen Andrade, a meteorologist with the state Weather Forecasting and Climatic Studies Centre (CPTEC).
On Friday, the U.S. National Hurricane Centre in Miami said the first hurricane ever was forming in the south Atlantic off the coast of Brazil, classifying it as a Category 1 hurricane -- the least powerful on forecasters' five-level scale.
But Andrade said that while satellite images could have suggested a hurricane, more detailed studies showed a different weather pattern.
The main difference, she said, is that the eye of a hurricane is hot, while the centre of an extratropical cyclone, that forms above colder waters, is cold.
"And the speed of the winds that cyclones bring is about twice as low, so we don't expect anything catastrophic, although strong rains and winds may affect Santa Catarina state. The cyclone has reached the land already," she said.
The maximum wind speed in the centre of the coming cyclone is about 50 mph (80 kph), CPTEC said. In some areas of the southern state of Santa Catarina wind was blowing at 12 mph (20 kph).
State Gov. Luiz Henrique da Silveira told Globo News television that emergency rescue teams were on alert in case of heavy downpour and winds, which often provoke disasters such as mudslides in Brazil.
The Brazilian Navy issued a warning of strong winds and high waves of up to 16 feet (5 metres) in the area. But officials at the Itajai port in Santa Catarina said no preparations were being made for the storm and work continued as usual.

From: "Eric Blake" To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 12:29 Subject: brazil spokesperson
I think the guy that was speaking for Iraq during the US invasion last year has moved to Brazil and is working for the weather service... :) The hurricane has already struck? as of Saturday night? BS!

From: "Eric Blake" To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 12:32 Subject: RE: Will NHC send Investigation Team to Brazil?
I very much doubt it... but if the damage is severe enough I wouldn't rule it out, especially if Brazil asks...
Torres is not a good place to be tonight

From: "Phil Smith" To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 14:29 Subject: Hurricane Aldonça already on Google
Talk about quick off the mark! I just for fun went to Google a minute ago and typed in "Hurricane Aldonça" and hit Enter.
Both Mike Padua's and my sites are already indexed although, strangely, they fail to list the page at http://www.drdisk.com.hk/aldonca.htm which is dedicated to this cyclone.
Phil
<><

From: Simon Clarke To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 15:34 Subject: Re: Hurricane Aldonça already on Google - And that is scary !
Phil... (and really a message to everyone in the group)
I agree with all that has been said before by everyone about this system off the Brazilian coast (aside from the comments made by the Mets based in that particular country)...... and I agree that names are entirely appropriate, so we don't get confused about which one was the Donald storm or the Duck storm or the Bomb storm, as has been happening lately in eastern Australia.
What does concern me is that from what was supposed to be a 'closed' group discussion, that the media out there does not take what is said 'inside here', as gospel (and obviously they have snatched the innocently provided name).
I feel that this happened pre-Cyclone Grace in Queensland where we had the Australian Broadcasting Commission (ABC) talking about Cyclone Grace as a matter of fact some 48 hours before she even developed .... (and this cannot be attributed to our discussion group for sure) ... Their source of inaccurate information is from 'where I don't know'.... ??????
We need to be mindful that the media will pick up our group as it is one that involves both professional and amateur 'mets'.... So let's be careful here...as what we are supposed to be privately posting as a discussion group can suddenly be disseminated on a web-page or alternative forum and this can be picked up by the mass media, and this is a big big big concern to me !
This is a 'closed' group, not a 'de-facto warning centre' ! And forwarding on messages outside the 'group' or placing them on 'webpages' should really be with the author's privileged authority only.
Google or bamboozle ! Information overload is not what we need .. just real facts ! Not one-inch of any offence is intend to anyone in the group by this post, just a reminder to be a bit wary ! And by the way, what I have e-mailed at any time previously can be posted anywhere..no worries ... I hope to inform, and not Google or bamboozle !!!!!!!!
Cheers
Simon

From: Dosidicus To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 15:55 Subject: Re: Hurricane Aldonça already on Google - And that is scary !
Seconded, Mr. Clarke. [snip]
-John

From: "Konon, Boris" To: "TCDG (E-mail)"
Date: 03/28/2004 17:33 Subject: Latest AP Report on Hurricane 01T
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040328/D81J8OKO0.html
Anyone else notice that the system's presentation on satellite looked the best yet just before landfall -- with a clean eye and a symmetrical ring of convection?
Boris

From: Simon Clarke To: Cyclone Discussion Group TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 18:15 Subject: TC Fay lives on..and our S Atlantic friend ? x ?
The e-mails are quiet for now... must be sleep time on the other side of the world !!!!!!!!!!!!!
Just about 36 hours on from crossing the coast and Fay is still a named storm overland... Not bad at all... ! ........but not for long soon I am sure !!!!!!!!!!!
Please wake up folks soon .. I am relying on your posts on our Brazilian friend !
Thanks
Simon

From: "Gary Padgett" To: "TCDG"
Date: 03/28/2004 18:56 Subject: TC Catarina has made landfall
Satellite pics and the SAB bulletins indicate that the South Atlantic system, named Catarina by Brazil's met service, has moved inland. I saw one press report about some significant wind damage, pasted in below.
RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil (AP) - A child died in a collapsed house and seven fishermen were missing and feared dead early Sunday as a large spiralling storm lashed the coast of southern Brazil, Civil Defence officials said.
Meanwhile, Brazilian and U.S. meteorologists disagreed over whether the storm was a hurricane - the first on record in the South Atlantic.
"It has gotten more severe in the last two hours," said Santa Catarina state Civil Defence official Marcio Luiz Alves.
He said a child died in a collapsed house when an area of beach resorts was hit by the high winds. A fishing vessel with seven people on board was missing, while four other vessels were struggling to get to shore, Alves said.
The storm, dubbed Catarina by meteorologists, hit the coasts of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil's southernmost states, late Saturday with heavy rains and winds of up to 60 mph.
The storm damaged homes, downed trees and knocked out power for several hundred thousand people across some 40 municipalities, according to civil defence officials in the two states.
"We are now bracing for the worst, which could come in the next couple of hours," said Ariel Goncalves, a spokesman for the Rio Grande do Sul Civil Defence Agency.
The storm hit land around the beach resort of Laguna, a town of 40,000 people. It also struck Torres, a city of 400,000 in the neighbouring state of Rio Grande do Sul.
Laguna and Torres are about 500 miles south of Rio de Janeiro.

From: Roger Edson To: TCDG28mar0515 85h big nice.jpg (53711 bytes)
Date: 03/28/2004 19:02 Subject: Re: TC Catarina has made landfall
I still like my name better...so it is STILL: Aldonça!!
Save this image for posterity!
Roger

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 19:05 Subject: Re: TC Catarina has made landfall
Roger,
When I write the March TC summary, I'll at least mention your name.
Great image!!

From: "Gavin O'Brien" To: Aussie-weather
Date: 03/28/2004 20:03 Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hurricane ALDONÇA was: TC Fay and Tropical Storm 01T
Phil and all,
Just checked out your NOAA Sat Pix Loop which shows that the Hurricane has crossed the coast of Brazil.Looks like a classical Tropical Storm to me. Any other info on this ?
Gavin

From: "Eric Blake" To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 20:05 Subject: brazil TC Catarina
Looks like it hit around 5z.. just like roger mentioned. classifications were 4.5 from SAB/TAFB at the time... and it appeared that the storm was on an upward rather than downward intensity trend.
the city of Torres probably received the full south side of the cyclone... with the eye estimated to have made landfall about 15 miles NE of the city, with the last observation reported was at 00z with no sig weather.
we (TPC) received an unofficial wind gust report of 93 mph from a Brazilian official overnight (150 km/h)... but I stress that it is unofficial but fitting what we saw on satellite...
Eric

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 20:23 Subject: Re: brazil TC Catarina
I do agree with Eric. The SSM/I at 2253utc the 27th already showed on the 85H convection wall getting stronger and the beautiful TRMM overpass at 0515utc which captured the eye right on the coast corroborated that.
We unfortunately will never know how much more intense this TC could have been.
Anyway it maintained Hurricane intensity for quite a while , definitely a highlight of this SH TC .
Iam somewhat glad since it is happening in the SH , which is receiving more and more attention each year.
This cyclone should have been numbered TC 22 . Maybe we will be ready for the next one.
Patrick

From: "Konon, Boris" To: "TCDG (E-mail)"
Date: 03/28/2004 21:13 Subject: 12z Synop from Torres, Brazil
83948 28124 21495 80527 10243 20207 30099 40105 53060 72086 83377 33320///
60074=
They did not report at 06z (from looking previous days data, I think they do not normally do)
NE winds at 27 kts and a fairly steep 3 hr pressure rise (6.0 millibars).
Boris

From: "Eric Blake" To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 21:26 Subject: Re: brazil TC Catarina
[snip]
AP is now reporting wind gusts to 94 mph (just did an interview). I would be very interested to see any pictures from there... if anyone has any info, please send it along
Eric

From: "Phil Smith" To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 21:54 Subject: Re: brazil TC Catarina
Hi Eric and all,
I have just received a one-liner personal e-mail from a Brazilian citizen near the storm (as a result of my web-page) and I have asked him to send me any pictures or stories he can lay his hands on.
Phil
<><

From: "Eric Blake" To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 22:45 Subject: brazil officials surprised...
from the latest AP story:
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&e=5&u=/ap/20040328/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/tropical_weather
""On Sunday, Brazilian scientists expressed surprise about the damage the storm had caused.
Escobar said the damage led officials to believe that winds during the night could have been above 50 mph. Marcelo Moraes, a meteorologist at the Integrated Climate Centre of Santa Catarina said winds could even have been in the range of 94 mph, enough to classify it as a hurricane. ""

Surprised eh? :) I say this only tongue in cheek b/c it is obviously a serious situation. But this could be a case of "we told you so... *grin*
Hopefully most weathered the storm ok.
Eric

From: Roger Edson To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 23:26 Subject: Re: Hurricane Aldonça already on Google - And that is scary !
[snip] My only concern is the real time nowcasting that we sometimes do and if this confuses a public warning....after the fact...who cares.
Roger

From: "Adrian Garcia" To: TCDG
Date: 03/28/2004 23:32 Subject: Re: brazil officials surprised...
Here is a rough translation of an article I found in an online Brazilian newspaper written in Portuguese.
Here is the link below:
http://jbonline.terra.com.br/extra/2004/03/28/e28031608.html
The article:
FLORIANÓPOLIS - Two persons died in consequence of the cyclone Catarina, that reached in the beginning from the night and early morning from today the Saint south region Catarina and the north of Rio Big of the South. An elder was reached by a tree lurch by the windstorm, in Saint Catarina, and an infant died after stayed under the debris from home where did he live in Towers, in the north native of Rio Grande do Sul.
The cyclone reached a speed of 150 km/h. Around 1.200 persons they stayed flushed out in Criciúma, and the Civil Defence is with difficulties of shelter-read. More of 100 houses they were destelhadas and 20 they fell. In all the region, 20 thousand residences were destroyed.
The cyclone, that in the morning of today, still continues acting in the region, left also the electric net grossly damaged and pulled out several trees. To BR 101 is blocked near to the town of Maracajá, due to the big quantity of trees that they tumbled in the trail. The highway should be liberated only about the noon, second the Federal Police Bus Station.
The Air Base put six airships at disposal for the rescue and aid from the population, but they are prevented from take off on account of the fortress wind that still reaches the region. A fishing boat sank and another is disappeared. The authorities await the improvement of the time for the rescue carry out the rescue.
Twenty towns from the south region catarinense were reached by the cyclone, the more punished they are Maracajá, Meleiro, I Cloud, Meleiro, Araranguá, Imbé of the South and Wilderness. The cyclone also passed for the town of Saint Joaquim, in the region of the mountain plateau, where caused problems.
Agreement with the Civil Defence, the cyclone continues acting in the morning of today in the south and mountain range catarinense, but is losing the force. The forecast is of small thunderstorms during the day.

Monday 29th March 2004      NAVIGATION: MARCH: 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, APRIL: 01, 02, 03

From: Dickson Fu To: TCDG
Date: 03/29/2004 01:02 Subject: local authority said it's atypical
Hi all,
Another report from Reuters. They finally believe it could be something "strange".
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=564&e=1&u=/nm/20040328/ts_nm/weather_brazil_dc
"It was born as an extratropical cyclone that we know, but then it started changing, becoming an atypical and abnormal case," said Gustavo Escobar, a meteorologist with the state Weather Forecasting and Climatic Studies Centre.
Best Regards,
Dickson Fu
Hong Kong

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: TCDG
Date: 03/29/2004 03:03 Subject: Re: local authority said it's atypical
How much longer will it take them to admit that they were wrong ? What really struck me was the fact they said Brazil had never had a hurricane and is not having one. Very convincing indeed.
Patrick

From: Simon Clarke To: TCDG
Date: 03/29/2004 03:55 Subject: Re: Google - etc..
Phil....and everyone.
You have definitely done the right thing ...... the point I was trying to make is that the media does take info and uses it or interprets it for their own purposes. I do not believe that anyone in this group will be sourced from any of the excellent web pages that many of you have.
However, as an example, I believe that last years' weather 'Bomb' off the Queensland Coast is what can happen. We had front page news reports that a 1000km weather bomb was going to strike us all and this was the most massive storm of all time. This was clearly a ridiculous story and I believe that the material to write this story was sourced from another popular weather group.
I am a little sensitive about this topic as about 12 years ago, I gave a non-weather related interview to a University, to find a few days later my name splashed across the second page of the Courier Mail Newspaper in an article that quoted me as an expert, portraying me as someone I am not and using my quotes in a manner that was not originally intended.
I don't believe anything that is said on our forum is a problem as we are careful in what we say. I am just being wary here as I sensed a bit of a 'USA' verses 'Brazil' opinion happening (which is fine), but I feared that the media could pick up and quote people inappropriately - that's all.
So please keep up your good work.
Thanks
Simon

From: "Michael V. Padua" To: "Typhoon Gang"
Date: 03/29/2004 16:18 Subject: Yahoo Photoslide on Aldonça/CATARINA's Aftermath
Hi Eric and the rest of the gang,
I discovered this yahoo photoslide on Hurricane/Cyclone Catarina-Aldonça: http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?events/we/080803typhoon&a=&tmpl=sl&ns=&l=&e=1
On this slide also showed the aftermath of Gafilo.
Enjoy!
Michael =;-)
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: "Michael V. Padua" To: TCDGaldonca_trak4.gif (28527 bytes)
Date: 03/29/2004 16:44 Subject: Hurricane ALDONÇA/CATARINA - Final Track
Guys,
here's the final track I've made using the SSDs fixes.
hope this is fine.
regards,
Michael =;-)
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

From: "Michael V. Padua" To: "Typhoon Gang"
Date: 03/29/2004 17:24 Subject: Correct address on the Photoslide
Dear All,
You can click the slideshow just below the uprooted trees photo over here: http://storynews.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20040319/sc_afp/madagascar_weather&cid=1540&ncid=1112
I don't know why it won't open when I tried opening it again. hate it.
Ciao
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: Roger Edson To: TCDG
Date: 03/29/2004 17:54 Subject: Re: Hurricane ALDONÇA/CATARINA - Final Track
Best Track for Hur Aldonça.xls [Editor's note: link at left will allow download of Excel file; HTML table below contains the same data]

Day Time Lat Lon Int Type Fix Methods Comments
19 12         VIS and IR, no sfc low evident Looks like vort area over land with isold conv
19 18 27.0S 49.0W 25 Extrop circ Scatt, IR and VIS, distinct area Scat suggests on shore circ, aftn convection and band
20 0 26.5S 48.5W 25 Extrop circ IR Area getting larger, but still over land
20 6 25.3S 48.0W 30 Extrop circ IR Conver on shore, prob a circ along shore
20 12 25.5S 46.0W 30 Extrop circ IR clear mvmt offshore Great comma cloud, with LL cloud lines
20 18 26.5S 44.5W 30 Extrop circ SCAT, IR and VIS Scat shows complete circ off shore near vort
21 0 26.8S 43.0W 30 Extrop circ IR  
21 6 27.5S 42.0W 30 Extrop circ scat troughish here  Starts to accel to the SE with extrop system
21 12 28.7S 40.5W 30 Extrop circ IR/VIS, some circ seen surrounding Now, area starting to hang back as a cut-off like circ
21 18 29.5S 39.5W 30 Extrop circ VIS partial exposed circ  
22 0 30.9S 38.5W 30 Extrop circ IR  
22 6 31.9S 37.0W 30 Extrop circ scat troughish begin cut off hybrid type config
22 12 32.3S 36.7W 30 Extrop circ IR/VIS partial exposed circ Separated from main frontal band, looks like an 'occlusion'
22 18 31.5S 36.5W 30 Extrop circ scat still troughish  
23 0 30.7S 36.7W 30 Extrop circ IR Isol weak conv in region, better outflow, still some frontal bdry
23 6 29.8S 37.0W 30 Extrop circ nice scat circ slow motion here
23 12 29.5S 37.5W 30 Extrop circ VIS exposed circ Isold convection near centre, weak out flow begins
23 18 29.4S 38.1W 35 Extrop circ scat good 35kt winds with 30 also isold conv mix
24 0 29.3S 38.5W 35 Hybrid IR  
24 6 29.2S 38.8W 35 Hybrid IR  
24 12 29.1S 39.0W 35 Hybrid IR and VIS Mix strong convection and boundary near centre
24 18 29.1S 39.4W 40 Hybrid IR and VIS starting to move westward, Convective build up
25 0 29.0S 39.9W 40 Hybrid IR  scat has 40kt easily, almost tropical, isolated system
25 6 28.9S 40.4W 45 TS Good scat fix Purely Tropical characteristics: convective support and not tied to syn boundary
25 12 28.7S 41.2W 50 TS IR and VIS Nice outflow from isolated conv system
25 18 28.7S 41.9W 55 TS Begin SAB fixes with my scat T3.0, but scat shows 50kt+
26 0 28.7S 42.6W 60 TS VIS and IR Banding eye forming
26 6 28.7S 43.1W 65 HUR Cat1 Begin MI  Nice banding convection
26 12 28.8S 43.7W 70 HUR Cat1 MI and IR and VIS Complete eye in MI and VIS
26 18 28.9S 44.2W 70 Huc Cat 1 MI and IR and VIS  
27 0 29.1S 44.9W 70 HUR Cat1 MI and IR  
27 6 29.2S 45.6W 75 HUR Cat1 MI and IR  
27 12 29.5S 46.4W 75 HUR Cat1 MI and IR and VIS Looking stronger, good clear eye and eyewall
27 18 29.5S 47.5W 80 HUR Cat1 MI and IR and VIS  
28 0 29.3S 48.3W 80 HUR Cat1 MI and IR  
28 6 29.0S 49.7W 85 HURCat 2? TRMM 85h nice pattern 28/0515 eye reaches coast of Brazil, Best MI
28 12 28.5S 50.1W 60 TS IR and VIS Good vis signature
28 18 28.5S 51.0W 45 TS IR Lost 

From: Roger Edson To: TCDG
Date: 03/29/2004 17:57 Subject: Re: Hurricane ALDONÇA/CATARINA - Final Track
Well, I guess I sent my best track on that last e-mail...it went off on its own!! woooeeee...
Anyway, I was going to ask Eric Blake to see if it could be smoothed a bit in the ATCF, but otherwise, its the best I can do...
Gary, did you get a copy?
roger

From: "Typhoon2000.ph \(Michael Padua\)" To: TCDG
Date: 03/29/2004 18:10 Subject: Re: Hurricane ALDONÇA/CATARINA - Final Track
A million thanks Roger,
That's cool! I will create ur best track tomorrow.
Thanks again,
Michael =;-)
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: "huangchunliang" To: TCDG
Date: 03/29/2004 18:13 Subject: Re: Hurricane ALDONÇA/CATARINA - Final Track
Great job, Roger! Very informative indeed!!
Mike, is there going to be a Best Final Track plotted by Typhoon2000?? Eager to see that one!!! :)
HCl

From: "Typhoon2000.ph \(Michael Padua\)" To: TCDG
Date: 03/29/2004 18:30 Subject: Re: Hurricane ALDONÇA/CATARINA - Final Track
Yeah! Will do it tomorrow.
Regards,
Michael =;-)
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/29/2004 19:30 Subject: Re: Hurricane ALDONÇA/CATARINA - Final Track
> Gary, did you get a copy?
> roger

roger :)

From: Matthew Saxby To: TCDG
Date: 03/29/2004 19:57 Subject: Re: Correct address on the Photoslide
Dear All,
1) Thanks Mike for the correct URL for these news items, I tried the earlier one and couldn't get it.
2) The Brazilian met. service now says "Catarina" was cold-cored, by which I presume they mean cold-cored at the time it hit. Is this correct, or are the poor fellers still in denial? (Not that I blame them -- TC's are supposed to be impossible in the SATL, period, let alone at 30S! This must have been a humungous shock to them. Great grief, it was shock to ME!) Any comments -- was Catarina a true hurricane, or an unusually aggressive STS?
Yours,
Matthew

From: Matthew Saxby To: TCDG
Date: 03/29/2004 19:59 Subject: Catarina News Article: Direct Address
Dear All,
The URL for those who want to go direct to the news story w/out reading about Gafilo is:
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20040329/sc_nm/weather_brazil_dc&e=4
The statement that it was cold-cored is at the end of the article.
Yours,
Matthew

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/29/2004 20:41 Subject: Re: Correct address on the Photoslide
> 2) The Brazilian met. service now says "Catarina" was cold-cored, by which I presume they mean cold-cored at the time it hit. Is this correct, or are the poor fellers still in denial? (Not that I blame them -- TC's are supposed to be impossible in the SATL, period, let alone at 30S! This must have been a humungous shock to them. Great grief, it was shock to ME!) Any comments -- was Catarina a true hurricane, or an unusually aggressive STS?
The system was warm-cored and had anti-cyclonic outflow, contrary to what some of the Brazilian meteorologists are quoted as saying, but then, this is rather second-hand information. Since it didn't form in the deep tropics, there are some mets who will probably never admit it was a tropical cyclone, but it is essentially identical to systems that for 30 yrs have been classed as tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic.

From: Dickson Fu To: TCDG
Date: 03/29/2004 21:56 Subject: Computer models for the South Atlantic hurricane
Hi Jack and the fellow stormchasers,
I just noticed there's a report from USA Today. http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurricane/2004-03-26-brazil-hurricane_x.htm
It's said: "Computer models that are working disagree with one saying the storm could hit Brazil, and the other two saying it should turn to the south, but with the two disagreeing on how close to land it will be when it turns."
Jack, May I know more specific information on the behaviour of those computer models for this storm? I'm also interested to know what models were being used? Is it something like GFDL?
Best Regards,
Dickson Fu
Hong Kong

From: Dosidicus To: TCDG
Date: 03/29/2004 23:08 Subject: Re: Correct address on the Photoslide
I saw undeniable anticyclonic outflow in Catarina--this girl had a beautiful "crown", and thus excellent outflow.
-John

From: Carl Smith To: TCDG
Date: 03/29/2004 23:09 Subject: Aldonça-Catarina developing satpic animation
Hi All.
I have made an animation of Aldonça-Catarina - I used the first 10 images of the developing system that came through from Huan and created a set of colour enhanced versions alongside the originals, and uploaded it at: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ImagesTemp/aldonca-catarina-anim.gif
It is an interesting sequence, as it shows a whole mess of apparently tropical origin stuff coming S down the RHS of the developing storm with some wrapping into it, which to me appears to remove any doubt that this indeed became a tropical system.
Now, if I could get my hands on a full set of 3 hrly IR images of the region starting 20th 0h through to the 30th 0h, that would make a really interesting animation!
Regards,
Carl.

From: Matthew Saxby To: TCDG
Date: 03/29/2004 23:42 Subject: Re: Correct address on the Photoslide
Dear Gary,
> The system was warm-cored and ...<snip>... is essentially identical to systems that for 30 yrs have been classed as tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic.
Can't argue with that. But heck, of all the unexpected places for a hurricane to turn-up...I think that takes the biscuit. Of course, the implications of Catarina are shattering...'cos what she really means is that no warm-water coastline anywhere is immune. That's going to demolish a lot of long-held assumptions and I expect a lot of TC 'bibles' are going to have to be rewritten...In meteorology, it seems there are no absolutes. Catarina is, no more and no less, the end of an era.
BTW, Catarina got on the news over here, one of the shop assistants at the local supermarket told me he'd heard about it when I mentioned it to him.
Yours,
Matthew

Tuesday 30th March 2004      NAVIGATION: MARCH: 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, APRIL: 01, 02, 03

From: "David Roth" To: TCDG
Date: 03/30/2004 00:24 Subject: Photoslide - 3rd TC in South Atlantic quote
You all notice one of the slides stated "this is the third known tropical cyclone to form in the South Atlantic?" I wonder if they're counting the other two possibilities this year OR the April 1991 and Winter 1975/1976 cases.
Another South Atlantic mystery,
DR

From: "David Roth" To: TCDG
Date: 03/30/2004 00:35 Subject: Third datapoint from southern Brazil - Catarina
A weather underground search revealed a third site (private weather station sans wind) near the cyclone's path...but it appears to be the farthest inland yet. Its pressure bottomed out at 1012 hPa around 18z the 28th...it reported 0.58" of rain that day. It appears to be only 1 Hpa higher than Florianapolis right now...so it seems to be within reason.
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IRIOGRAN1&day=28&year=2004&month=3
Still hunting for data from southern Brazil,
DR

From: "Kevin Boyle" To: TCDG
Date: 03/30/2004 00:50 Subject: Re: Aldonça-Catarina developing satpic animation
Dear Carl,
I've got some GOES-E whole earth images from the period that you ask. They might be quite small, though but I've made a animation out of them.They are every three hours. If you are interested I can send the movie to you. See what you think.
Regards
Kevin

From: Carl Smith To: TCDG
Date: 03/30/2004 01:08 Subject: Re: Aldonça-Catarina developing satpic animation
Hi Kevin,
By all means send the animation - it's certainly worth a look.
Regards,
Carl.

From: "Kevin Boyle" To: TCDG
Date: 03/30/2004 02:50 Subject: Re: Images
Dear Carl (and group),
Hope you got the movie okay.
The link where I got the images from are: http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus.html
Unfortunately you need to register but it is free. I was just thinking so you can download the larger pics so you can manipulate them to what you want.
Regards
Kevin

From: Dosidicus To: TCDG
Date: 03/30/2004 04:24 Subject: Re: Photoslide - 3rd TC in South Atlantic quote
I think they're only counting 1991, and this year's January system...
-John

From: Michael Bath To: TCDG
Date: 03/30/2004 06:55 Subject: Re: Aldonça-Catarina developing satpic animation
Hi Carl and all,
You can get satpics back 2 weeks from here - GOES East archive : http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus.html
but you will need to register.....
cheers, Michael

From: "Mark A. Lander" To: TCDG
Date: 03/30/2004 10:02 Subject: Re: Correct address on the Photoslide
Matthew,
By some of the comments made by the Brazilian MET service I have a sneaky suspicion that they have some really confused ideas about the structure of hurricanes. The comment about the cold-core in Catarina/Aldonça is way off the mark. We had a typhoon eye pass over Guam once, and if anyone has been through the passage of a typhoon on the ground in the tropics, it actually gets a bit colder than normal. During all of the rain and wind, one gets downright chilled standing out in 26 C air versus the normal 30 plus. In the eye itself, it is cool (27 C) and moist. One unnamed typhoon forecaster at JTWC actually remarked that he was surprised that is was so cool in the eye of the typhoon because he thought they were supposed to be "warm cored". Well, the obvious mistake here is that the warm core in a typhoon is not at the surface!, it's above an inversion in the lower troposphere and peaks at 15 to 20 degrees Celsius (or more) above ambient from 700 mb on up to 300 mb or so. Guaranteed, Catarina/Aldonça had the classic "Onion-shaped" T, Td profile of any hurricane with a cool moist boundary layer, and warm dry air above an inversion in the lower troposphere.
Another comment made was that C/A lacked an overlying anticyclone. Well, this gets tricky, because in a hurricane, there actually is a deep cyclone all the way to the tropopause, and in animation, the cyclonic rotation is sometimes apparent, except well away from the TC centre where the flow does become anticyclonic. In the core region, however, there is a strong anticyclonic shear with height so that the eyewall cbs, and cirrus debris always lag the surface circulation to give the classic appearance of an anticyclone (even if the cirrus is still moving around the centre cyclonically). I have even seen cases where strong shear on convection in TC rainbands (that would indicate a complete wind reversal with height) is only an artefact of the wind becoming much lighter with height, but not truly reversing! In any case, on the large scale, the flow in C/A did lessen and reverse with height beyond a radius know as R-zero.
It boggles my mind that there is any serious challenge to the notion that C/A was a true full-fledged hurricane.
Regards, Mark L.

From: "Mark A. Lander" To: TCDG
Date: 03/30/2004 10:06 Subject: Re: Computer models for the South Atlantic hurricane
Hi Dickson,
Several days out, both the U.S. GFS and the Navy's NOGAPS showed their weak representation of Catarina/Aldonça (a 1006 mb low) moving westward towards the coast and both took it ashore before turning it south. In both models, the system weakened and almost became a weak vort max (wave only) in northerly flow around a high offshore to the east.
Regards, Mark L.

From: "Michael V. Padua" To: TCDG
Date: 03/30/2004 10:26 Subject: Re: Correct address on the Photoslide
Hi Mark,
Maybe a military is testing a new equipment that can create a hurricane in any point of the world... hehehe. Just kidding. :-)
Well, seriously, this system will be discussed more often in the Meteorology community. Btw, I knew NASA have this new plane to conduct analysis on Hurricanes. I forgot the name. Anyway, it missed C/A.
Cheers to all!
Michael =;-)
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: "Michael V. Padua" To: "Typhoon Gang"
Date: 03/30/2004 10:43 Subject: ALDONÇA/CATARINA BEST TRACK Release
Dear All,
Just to let you know that the Typhoon2000.com Graphical Version of Aldonça/Catarina's Best Track which was send to us by Roger - will be released on Friday, April 02...
I need to set priority first on my 2003 TC tracks for the site (15 more TCs to track down).
Please do understand.
Thanks a lot and more power to our group!!!
Michael =;-)
"Thundering Typhoons!!!"

From: Carl Smith To: TCDG
Date: 03/30/2004 11:02 Subject: Re: Images
Thanks Adrian and Michael, I have set up an account there now, so can get access to their wide range of images.
Also, thanks for the movie Adrian, it looks good and certainly spurs me on to get higher res images.
Regards,
Carl.

Posted on WXHK Forum: By Clearsky on Monday, March 29, 2004 - 10:36 am:
No doubt, it claims life and property beyond what the officials thought.
Get more weather related news from Reuters and Associated Press via Yahoo.
http://weather.yahoo.com/
City of Florianopolis, Copyright: Reuters 5020.jpg (21991 bytes)

 

 

 

 

 

 


Torres, Copyright: Associated Press 5021.jpg (26092 bytes)

From: huangchunliang To: TCDG
Date: 03/30/2004 12:58 Subject: 01T: "Something completely new"
"This system was totally different from anything we've ever seen here," said Laura Rodrigues, a meteorologist at the Santa Catarina state weather bureau. "It may be that it was neither a hurricane nor a subtropical cyclone, but rather something completely new."
Really a creative, isn't she?
Full press report (including the latest damage/casualties info and a picture) can be found at:
http://www.wtop.com/index.php?nid=105&sid=6763
HCl

From: Jack Beven To: TCDG
Date: 03/30/2004 13:23 Subject: Re: Computer models for the South Atlantic hurricane
Dickson Fu wrote:
> Hi Jack and the fellow stormchasers,
[snip]
> Jack, May I know more specific information on the behaviour of those computer models for this storm? I'm also interested to know what models were being used? Is it something like GFDL?

I was looking at the GFS, the NOGAPS, the UKMET, and the GFDL, which we actually managed to get running after some on the fly surgery of the computer scripts.
The GFS consistently took the system to the coast, although it had a very weak representation of it. The early UKMET runs tried to recurve the system very quickly. I believe the later runs brought it closer or onto the coast. The NOGAPS was originally between the GFS and UKMET, and if I recall correctly it switched to a landfall scenario later as well.
The first GFDL run called for the system to recurve southeastward near the coast. Subsequent runs changed to a landfall forecast, including
catching some of the northward jog that occurred just before landfall.
Jack Beven

From: Dickson Fu To: TCDG
Date: 03/30/2004 13:47 Subject: New Theory for Catarina/Aldonça
Hi all,
Here's the Reuter report via Yahoo News.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20040329/sc_nm/weather_brazil_dc&cid=570&ncid=1112
It's saying: "It attributed the resulting unusually strong storm to the interaction of winds when the cyclone reached a mountain range near the shore."
Since that it's a second-handed info, so I'm not sure the official said something like this. But, I really felt if they are looking for an excuse. I'm not ruling out any possibilities at this stage, but if we push too much, I'm afraid they will dare to cover up some facts that hinder our scientific investigation.
Best Regards,
Dickson Fu
Hong Kong

From: "leg" To: Phil Smith
Sent: Tuesday, March 30, 2004 9:21 AM Subject: Hurricane Aldonça-Catarina
Hi!
I live in Brazil, and I witnessed this quite rare phenomena (at least very rare in Brazil) last weekend.
About the name (Aldonça): Despite whatever Google said, that definitely is _not_ a Brazilian usual name/word. I´ve never heard of anyone called Aldonça anywhere, nor anything similar pronounced. But hey, I´ve never heard about hurricanes landing on Brazil too, so this makes sense and is as good name as any other weird name.
Catarina was chosen by Brazilian media because it is the name of the Brazilian state in which this hurricane landed (Santa Catarina).
BTW, local press is making a huge discussion here about hurricanes and cyclones... Some are calling it an "extra-tropical cyclone", others said it is a "furacao" (hurricane), a F1. They are telling that the difference is: extra-tropical cyclones have a cold core and swirls clockwise (in southern hemisphere) as a whole, top to bottom; hurricanes have hot-core and swirl on one direction in it´s base and in another on top. I suspect that this two direction swirling storms don´t exist, do they? What about the Coriolis law? Brazilian meteorologists for sure aren´t specialists on hurricanes, so I don´t trust them in this matter.
This is our best website for satellite photos and weather condition: http://www.cptec.inpe.br

Editor's Note: The following is a translation made using Altavista of the Portuguese-language page found at http://www.cptec.inpe.br/nota_tecnica.shtml
NOTE JOINT TECHNIQUE CPTEC/INPE And INMET
Extratropical cyclone in the coast of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande Do Sul
29 of March of 2004
The system that reached Santa Catarina in this weekend was not an hurricane. Hurricane is a phenomenon that if form in the hot waters (higher temperature than 27°C) of the tropical oceans, presenting high temperatures in its interior and winds turning in opposing directions in the levels next to the surface and in high levels, or either, about 12 height km. The phenomenon that reached the coast of Santa Catarina is a cyclone, phenomenon that presents low temperatures in its interior and winds turning in the same one felt since the surface until the high levels. The process of formation of the hurricane is different of the process of formation of the observed cyclone. From the moment where it appeared the eye of storm and the cloud bands in rotation, the speculation appeared of that it could be an hurricane. In its final phase of decline, in fact, the system lost its cold nucleus and started to present rotation in the contrary direction in high levels. Therefore, it can be concluded that if it dealt with a system with hybrid characteristics, that will have to be studied and to be analyzed with bigger depth in the future for the teams of the Meteorological Centres.
The cyclone observed during the weekend in the coast of Santa Catarina and north of the Rio Grande Do Sul was followed by the Meteorological Centres since day 24, when a small area of atmospheric instability formed it about 1000 km of the coast of Santa Catarina starting configuring itself with a cyclonic circulation. Initially the clouds in the satellite image had the format of an inverted comma with much rain. The winds already started to have a turn, clockwise typical of a cyclone. Gradually the clouds had started to acquire the circular format and in the afternoon of the Thursday already he appeared “olho”, or either, a region without clouds.
During the Friday the 20 cyclone started to intensify itself and to dislocate it approximately km/h in the direction of the continent. Winds measured in the neighbourhoods for ships arrived the 70-90 km/h. The numerical forecasts indicated that the cyclone would continue in direction to the coast of the South Region of the country with an uncertainty in relation to the place where would have the impact biggest. The first ones you alert for the National Civil Defence had been emitted in the night of the Friday.
During Saturday, the satellite images indicated that the clouds of the cyclone were losing force and the winds in the sea indicated 60 approximately moderate speeds of km/h. The alert one was kept. The forecasts indicated the weakness of the cyclone however with the exception that when reaching the coastal region could occur located intensification. The to be reached region would be since Florianópolis until the north of the Rio Grande Do Sul.
During the night of Saturday the first cloud bands had reached the coast and occurred intensification of the system in the region of the General Mountain range Gaúcha and Catarinense. The winds of the cyclone when reaching the General Mountain range had induced the intensification of the clouds that in turn had favoured the occurrence of strong winds in some localities.
The Saturday night enters and the Sunday dawn the cyclone reached the continent, particularly in the areas between the south of Santa Catarina and northeast of the Rio Grande Do Sul, between Criciúma and Torres. During this period strong winds and rains had been observed. For the provoked damages it can be inferred that the 150 winds had arrived to reach km/h. In elapsing of the Sunday rains had persisted on the mountain ranges gauchos and catarinenses and the cyclone was losing intensity gradually.
The acknowledgments of the Friday night pointed with respect to the weakness of the cyclone, as the civil defence was communicated. The exception was made that when reaching the coast could occur intensificações of the winds and rains in mountainous places since Florianópolis until the northeast of the Rio Grande Do Sul, in a approximately the 200 area corresponding coast km, or either, an extensive area. The forecast and the monitoramento of located events more as the occurrence in such a way depend on the quality and amount of comments in the continental area as in the oceanic area used in set with numerical forecasts high resolution space, meteorological images of radar and satellites.
CPTEC/INPE And INMET

From: Leg To: Phil Smith
Subject: Re: Hurricane Aldonça-Catarina Date: Tue, 30 Mar 2004 15:10:45 -0300
On Tue, 2004-03-30 at 08:25, Phil Smith wrote:
> I shall ask those more expert than I to explain the "two direction swirling storms" you mention.
Now I think that someone misunderstood the concept of a hurricane outflow when were doing info-graphics for the TV. I found this page that seems to explain it better:
http://www.comet.ucar.edu/nsflab/web/hurricane/324.htm
> I went to the web-site you recommended and have used Alta-Vista to translate from Portuguese into English the official notice posted there about cyclone Catarina.
I've forgot to mention. That site is from INPE, the Brazilian official government space research agency and Met office. It's kind of a Brazilian NASA (respecting 3rd world budget, of course).
There you may find the data for Brazilian met stations (pressure, temperature, whatever...). If you want any help to find some specific data through Portuguese pages, perhaps I can do something.
BTW, this is a gorgeous huge picture of the storm thanks to the real NASA (4.5MB) http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/?2004086-0326/Brazil.A2004086.1310.250m.jpg
> Regarding the choice of a name, I laughed when I read that the name Aldonça is unknown in Brazil. (...) Apparently it is a common women's name in Portugal which is a long, long way from Brazil!
I googled for it. Seems that it was a noble name frequent about 500 years ago in Spain/Portugal. It appeared on most heraldic/genealogic sites.
> I bet this storm will be discussed for many years to come!
Gary Padgett said there must have been plenty of south-Atlantic hurricanes in the past. I believe he is right. I remember that I saw at least one satellite picture, about a year or two ago, with a swirling storm over the sea, resembling a hurricane, but far from the coast and almost stopped, never coming full strenghted in our direction. Perhaps it is something becoming more frequent/stronger? (blame global warming?)
The weather has been quite unusual in southern Brazil for the last few  months. Here, the rains are almost equally distributed among the entire year, there's no dry seasons. But this summer, Argentina is on a major electrical crisis because of the lack of rain on their northern hidroplants. And it is raining too much on Brazilian east (including northeast usually dry, semi-arid). Last week there were a rise of temperature in south, a bit unusual for this season. Maybe that contributed to the detachment of the cold front weakening the high
pressure behind it? (I'm only speculating on that, I'm not even an amateur yet!)
Hot-cored systems seems to be unusual on these waters, maybe because there is usually a strong cold ocean stream directly from Antarctica that comes to Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina south, bringing antartican penguins and cold water to the southern beaches. That's exactly the area where this hurricane landed: north of that the waters usually are hotter (and the beaches are better :)
For Brazilian authorities, I must say that they just weren't prepared to do anything. Brazil never had any kind of major natural disaster on its recorded history. No hurricanes, no quakes, no vulcanoes, no blizzards, no tsunamis, no tornados, no anything as harmful, only a few thunderstorms. The "Raging Planet" TV series were almost like science fiction for this people until now.
--
Leg!

From: "Heming, Julian" To: Tropical Cyclone Discussion Group
Date: 03/30/2004 20:22 Subject: Brazil hurricane and global warming stories
I expect there will be more of these, but this is the first article I have come across linking the Brazilian hurricane with global warming. It erroneously uses the argument that it is all down to SSTs.
See http://www.unknowncountry.com/news/?id=3662.
By the way, does anyone know about the 1966 storm which is mentioned?
Cheers,
Julian

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/30/2004 20:34 Subject: Re: Brazil hurricane and global warming stories
> By the way, does anyone know about the 1966 storm which is mentioned?
Phil,
Why don't you ask your Brazilian contact if he knows anything about the 1966 storm referenced in the article.

From: Roger Edson To: TCDG
Date: 03/30/2004 22:19 Subject: Re: Fwd: Fw: Hurricane Aldonça-Catarina
Now, this e-mail hurts worse than an insult from Greg Holland!
I don't know what to say except that I 'searched' for 'Portuguese women names' (not Brazilian) and picked the first 'a-name' that I could find (and also happened to like). Beats me....but I'll stick with Aldonça!
Roger
--- Phil Smith  wrote:
> Hi all,
> I have received the attached e-mail from a weather enthusiast in Brazil.
[snip]
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "leg" To: Phil Smith
> Sent: Tuesday, March 30, 2004 9:21 AM Subject: Hurricane Aldonça-Catarina
> > Hi!
[snip]
> About the name (Aldonça): Despite whatever Google said, that definitely is _not_ a Brazilian usual name/word.
> I´ve never heard of anyone called Aldonça anywhere, nor anything similar pronounced. [snip]

From: Matthew Saxby To: TCDG
Date: 03/30/2004 22:39 Subject: Re: Correct address on the Photoslide
Dear Mark,
Thanks a lot for explaining all this to me. Though I didn't understandsome of the more tecknickle :) stuff, I got the picture loud and clear -- Catarina wasyour ordinary everyday fantastic hurricane, no doubt about it! However, I can't blamethe Brazilians for reacting as they've done, 'cos like I said earlier, it would'vebeen a hellish shock to them and will take a fair while to come to terms with. Infact, Catarina marked the end of the era in which some warm-water zones could still beheld to be TC-free. Now Catarina has shown that's no longer true, and all countrieswith warm-water coastlines are going to have to accept that they are liable to beTC-prone. And for some, it will be horrendously difficult... I don't envy them, or thepeople who'll have the job of convincing them.
Yours,
Matthew

Wednesday 31st March 2004      NAVIGATION: MARCH: 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, APRIL: 01, 02, 03

From: Matthew Saxby To: TCDG
Date: 03/31/2004 00:10 Subject: "Aldonça" still spreading
Dear All,
It seems he who names first names best: Aldonça, by that name, is now being reported on wx-websites in Germany, Denmark (which also used Catarina), and several in the Netherlands. Whee-ooo! Wonder when the Brazilian MET people will start hosing us for stealing their thunder, hey? Roger, I hope you have a good bomb-shelter handy, I think you might need it :-)
BTW, it seems from the listings and contexts I got on Google that the name Aldonça was in use mainly before the 17th century and has largely died out. It is, however, a valid Portuguese name and a Brazilian website showed someone with it who appeared to be a government official of some sort, so it may still be in (very occasional) use. I couldn't get a line on its meaning, though there is a modern Portuguese name "Adoncia" meaning "Sweet" of which Aldonça may be an archaic form. If anyone can enlighten us further, go for it.
Yours,
Matthew

From: "David Roth" To: TCDG
Date: 03/31/2004 02:44 Subject: Re: RE: Hurricane 01T
After the September 1996 neutercane/polar low in the Great Lakes, perhaps a new letter is needed there as well. G appears to be free. =)
Still catching up on the 350+ South Atlantic postings,
DR
----- Original Message -----
From: "Heming, Julian"
Date: Friday, March 26, 2004 8:22 am Subject: RE: Hurricane 01T
> Yes - 01M was my idea as well. Maybe I've got a new job of designating identifiers for unusual TC locations!
> Julian
> On Fri, 2004-03-26 at 13:18, HCL wrote:
> > Well done, Julian! We really need an identifier to discuss this supernatural.
> > Of course, I know well that the suffix "T" was not the official one because [snip]

From: Roger Edson To: TCDG
Date: 03/31/2004 08:26 Subject: Re: "Aldonça" still spreading
Matthew, thank you for your research project on the name. To me, this makes it even 'nicer'...or maybe 'sweet'. This way, no individual can be offended, and I love the name.
Roger
--- Matthew Saxby  wrote:
> Dear All,
> It seems he who names first names best: Aldonça, by that name, is now being reported on wx-websites in [many countries] [snip]

From: "Amaral Krebs - Advogados Associados" To: Phil Smith Cc: [snip]
Date: 03/31/2004 08:32 Subject: Cyclone Catarina - Links
Dear Friend
One small local private weather centre in the state of Rio Grande do Sul called Rede de Estações de Climatologia Urbana de São Leopoldo tracked the hurricane 1-T Alfa and posted its alerts every two hours on the site of the local emergency management agency ( www.defesacivil.rs.gov.br). They issued 8 bulletins in just 24 hours, warning of very strong damaging winds, torrential rains, high tide and sea, storm surge and hail. After talking to Jack Beven in the NHC Friday (26) afternoon they took the storm very seriously. At Climatologia Urbana, they never downplayed the storm that they always classified as a tropical cyclone.
Bulletin 1: http://www.defesacivil.rs.gov.br/comunicacao/noticia_view_html?id_not=20040327-103655
Bulletin 2: http://www.defesacivil.rs.gov.br/comunicacao/noticia_view_html?id_not=20040327-134939
Bulletin 3: http://www.defesacivil.rs.gov.br/comunicacao/noticia_view_html?id_not=20040327-152321
Bulletin 4: http://www.defesacivil.rs.gov.br/comunicacao/noticia_view_html?id_not=20040327-191056
Bulletin 5: http://www.defesacivil.rs.gov.br/comunicacao/noticia_view_html?id_not=20040327-212518
Bulletin 6: http://www.defesacivil.rs.gov.br/comunicacao/noticia_view_html?id_not=20040328-000517
Bulletin 7: http://www.defesacivil.rs.gov.br/comunicacao/noticia_view_html?id_not=20040328-030545
Bulletin 8: http://www.defesacivil.rs.gov.br/comunicacao/noticia_view_html?id_not=20040328-113619
This centre (Climatologia Urbana) was the only one to declare a tropical cyclone alert in the state of Rio Grande do Sul as the federal weather centres seemed to be more concerned about the nature of the storm than warning the public.
In the state of Santa Catarina two regional weather centres also warned about a hurricane. The most organized centre provided extensive information on the storm ( ( ( ( (http://www.climerh.rct-sc.br). The other one is called Climaterra (www.climaterra.com.br) and at one moment they told told the population to pray.
I hope you those information were useful.
Alexandre
Porto Alegre - Brazil
PS: Do you have the e-mail address of Jack Beven at NHC ?

From: "Phil Smith" To: "Amaral Krebs - Advogados Associados"
Date: 03/31/2004 19:48 Subject: Re: Cyclone Catarina - Links [placed here as it answered the e-mail above]
Dear Amaral,
Thank you for your very informative e-mail. I have taken the liberty of posting it on my web page at http://www.drdisk.com.hk/aldonca.htm - I hope this is okay (your e-mail address was removed to protect your privacy).
It is most gratifying to learn that some agencies did warn the public.
I looked through the advisories and while I have never learned Portuguese, my knowledge of French, Italian and Spanish meant that I think I understood quite a lot of it.
I have a question for you ... I observe that the storm was warned on using the number 1-T as an identifier; do you know (or guess) whether this was due to the Agency also using UK Met Office Guidance, where it was referred to as 01T, or whether this was just a coincidence?
A second question concerns another article I have read which refers to the Hurricane as being "the first to hit South America since the storm of 1966". Do you know anything about a storm which was alleged to have hit South America in 1966? I have made a hunt on the Internet and found no reference to it so far.
I have asked Jack Beven to send his e-mail address to you privately, if he chooses to do so, as I follow a policy of never giving out anyone else's e-mail address without their permission.
Thanks again for sending these very useful links.
Blessings,
Phil
<><

From: "Heming, Julian" To: Tropical Cyclone Discussion Group
Date: 03/31/2004 15:53 Subject: Re: RE: Hurricane 01T
The list could go on... how about a classification for cyclones in the Black Sea after the August 2002 event (http://www.metoffice.com/sec2/sec2cyclone/tcimages/Misc/blacksea2.gif).
I'm sure there have been plenty of other TC-like structures in strange places which were not spotted at the time.
Julian
On Tue, 2004-03-30 at 19:44, David Roth wrote:
> After the September 1996 neutercane/polar low in the Great Lakes, perhaps a new letter is needed there as well. G appears to be free.  =)

From: "Phil Smith" To: TCDG
Date: 03/31/2004 18:27 Subject: Re: Brazil hurricane and global warming stories
I now have several Brazilian contacts as a result of this web page, so I shall put the question to each of them.
However as the article mentioned the 1966 storm as "hitting South America", for all we know, it may have been thousands of miles away from Brazil. We need to remember that the South American continent extends well north of the Equator so that the southern shore of the Gulf of Mexico, for example is formed partly by Central America and partly by the northern limits of the South American continent.
Phil
<><
-----Original Message-----
From: "Gary Padgett"
> Phil,
> Why don't you ask your Brazilian contact if he knows anything about the 1966 storm referenced in the article.

From: Roger Edson To: SmithP Cc: Gary Padgett
Date: 03/31/2004 18:37 Subject: Fwd: Cyclone Catarina - Links
Phil,
I sent this on to our tropical group, I hope that this was ok (and that I don't get into any more trouble as my 'boss' is starting to get peeved at all of my messages to the 'group'). Oh well.
Roger

From: "Phil Smith" To: "Roger Edson"
Date: 03/31/2004 20:05 Subject: Re: Fwd: Cyclone Catarina - Links [placed here as it answered the e-mail above]
Roger,
you're not the only person in trouble over this storm and the amount of time it takes up!
I had no idea what I was letting myself in for when I suggested a web page might be a good idea. I dropped a copy of the page into Word in order to perform a word count yesterday, and it has already passed 20,000 words. While this is mostly cut and paste work, the editing and formatting has taken up a vast number of hours already. It is being hinted at that I am neglecting important others by falling in love with this strange Aldonça!
And no worries about posting it on; knowledge is meant to be shared around.
Phil
<><

From: "Heming, Julian" To: Tropical Cyclone Discussion Group
Date: 03/31/2004 18:53 Subject: Re: Brazil hurricane and global warming stories
The last record of a hurricane hitting South American shores north of the equator is in 1933.
On reflection, I wonder whether the reference to a 1966 storm in this article is a misinterpretation of some of the news reports which have been circulating. Many reports have stated that this is the first such storm to have occurred since 1966, implying that it is the first since satellite data gave coverage rather than referring to a previous storm.
Given that other parts of the said article seem to be quite misinformed, I wonder the reference to a 1966 storm isn't another piece of misinformation.
Julian

From: "Phil Smith" To: TCDG
Date: 03/31/2004 20:11 Subject: Re: Brazil hurricane and global warming stories [placed here as it answered the e-mail above]
Yes, Julian, I think you're right. I have done so much searching for this mythical 1966 storm that I was beginning to wonder the same thing. It is understandable how such a misunderstanding can very easily occur.
Phil
<><

From: "Heming, Julian" To: Tropical Cyclone Discussion Group
Date: 03/31/2004 19:01 Subject: Re: Fwd: Cyclone Catarina - Links
Interesting response. Does the fact that they were using the identifier '1-T' imply they were utilising Met Office forecast guidance - or is the use of a similar identifier purely co-incidental?
It would be interesting to see a translation of some of these warnings.
Julian

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/31/2004 20:01 Subject: Re: Brazil hurricane and global warming stories
[snip] so that the southern shore of the Gulf of Mexico, for example is formed partly by Central America and partly by the northern limits of the South American continent.
Correction: the southern shore of the Gulf of Mexico is formed by Mexico, which is geographically considered part of North America, although it is getting close to Central America. South America forms the southern shore of the Caribbean Sea. [Editor's note: Thanks Gary for the correction.  I should check an atlas before speaking off the top of my head!]
None of the North Atlantic TCs of 1966 affected South America. With the cold Humboldt Current off the west coast, I don't think it hardly possible a TC could have struck there, so if a TC or STS did strike South America in 1966, I'd say Brazil would be a good bet, although Uruguay or extreme northern Argentina could possibly be subject to very rare visitations from Catarina-like storms.
It's good to know that at least a private met. service in Brazil recognized the danger and tried to warn the population appropriately.

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 03/31/2004 20:08 Subject: Re: Brazil hurricane and global warming stories
[snip]
> On reflection, I wonder whether the reference to a 1966 storm in this article is a misinterpretation of some of the news reports which have been circulating. Many reports have stated that this is the first such storm to have occurred since 1966, implying that it is the first since satellite data gave coverage rather than referring to a previous storm.
[snip]

Now that's a very plausible idea.
Julian, thanks for posting the link to the Black Sea cyclone. I was thinking maybe "K" might be a good suffix for there, as "K" is the only letter of black not already in use.
Now, for the sake of global completeness, have any such apparent convectively-driven cyclones been observed over the Caspian Sea??? It isn't so far away from the Black Sea, has comparable dimensions, and the southern portion is at a lower latitude than the BS.

From: "Phil Smith" To: TCDG
Date: 03/31/2004 20:11 Subject: Re: Brazil hurricane and global warming stories
Yes, Julian, I think you're right. I have done so much searching for this mythical 1966 storm that I was beginning to wonder the same thing.
It is understandable how such a misunderstanding can very easily occur.
Phil
<><
-----Original Message-----
From: "Heming, Julian" To: Tropical Cyclone Discussion Group
Date: Wed, 31 Mar 2004 11:53:12 +0100
> On reflection, I wonder whether the reference to a 1966 storm in this article is a misinterpretation of some of the news reports which have been circulating. Many reports have stated that this is the first such storm to have occurred since 1966, implying that it is the first since satellite data gave coverage rather than referring to a previous storm.

From: "Heming, Julian" To: Tropical Cyclone Discussion Group
Date: 03/31/2004 20:27 Subject: Re: Brazil hurricane and global warming stories
I should point out that my comments on having an identifier for the Black Sea were written somewhat tongue in cheek given David's comments about the Great Lakes. We could end up with a very lengthy list of identifiers if we started to look at all bodies of water where TC-like circulations might develop. Let's stick to the ones we have for the main ocean basins (and add the South Atlantic)!
Julian

From: Matthew Saxby To: TCDG
Date: 03/31/2004 23:18 Subject: Aldonça, the Sweet Hurricane
Dear All,
Finally tracked down the name Aldonça with the help of a senior academic at my university.
1) Those who say the name is spelled with a cedilla (small hook) under the "c" are correct. Leave the cedilla off, and it becomes "Aldonka" :-]
2) It is the Portuguese form of the Spanish name "Aldonza", meaning "sweet". "Adoncia", also Portuguese, appears to be an alternative form, as it has the same meaning and similar appearance.
3) So poor unfortunate Brazil just got hit by Hurricane "Sweet"!
Roger, you sure know how to pick 'em ;-)
Yours,
Matthew

Thursday 1st April 2004      NAVIGATION: MARCH: 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, APRIL: 01, 02, 03

From: "Gary Padgett" To: "TCDG" [Relaying message from:] "Luiz E. Gava"
Date: 04/01/2004 03:58 Subject: New Member from Brazil
Hi
My full name is Luiz Eduardo Gava (with a z, which sounds just like the "s"). LEG are my initials. They just don't mean anything in Portuguese so I use it in my e-mail address and now most people call me that way.
I live in Porto Alegre, Brazil. [snip]
I saw the clouds running outside the border of this Aldonça/Catarina hurricane, toward northeast of my town last Saturday afternoon. Those were the darkest clouds I've ever seen, contrasting with the bright lightning and the huge double-rainbow and the blue sky that was surrounding it from my point of view. The clouds were moving very fast.
I knew it was not even the border, I was too much far from the eye (thanks, God!) but it's power were really amazing for me.
A friend of mine that was on vacation and not watching the news came from Florianopolis to Porto Alegre on that Saturday afternoon, by a near shore road. He left Florianopolis on 12:30pm (GMT 15:30). He said that at the beginning of his journey it was windy, sometimes raining even without any clouds in sky above him. Later he saw the dark clouds moving very fast, but it wasn't continuously raining. By 18:00 he was at Torres, there the wind was getting much faster, shaking his car. His trip took a lot of time longer than usual because of the near-bottlenecked traffic: there were a lot of trucks/cars in the road, maybe some of them were running away from the hurricane.
> [snip]. One question I have for you: by what name (if any) was the storm generally known in Brazil?  The name Catarina was applied widely in the news media, but I've heard the opinion expressed that it was meant more like "the furacao which struck (the state of) Santa Catarina".
I believe it was meant for that at first moments. But now it is widely known as the "Ciclone Catarina", although I don't know who named it or if it is a scientific official name. Most of the Meteorologist sites don't even mention a name for it, so seems that it was chosen by the news media. I've first heard the name Catarina on local TV by Saturday morning. By Friday afternoon on TV news it was just a "ciclone" which was approaching.
> I saw an e-mail from a private meteorological firm in Brazil which referred to it as "Alfa" or "Alpha".
I've never heard it being called that way. As I told Phil, the name Aldonça (or Aldonça, with a c-cedilla, which is the correct written format in Portuguese based on the pronounce mentioned in his page) was a common name in Portugal about 500 years ago. Never heard of anyone with this name in Brazil.
Now it is as good as any other strange/rare name for this hurricane because hurricanes are a very strange/rare thing in Brazil. I can barely pronounce Aldonça!
I must say that this Roger/Google mistake is very easy to make. There were no intention to insult him when I wrote that this name is unknown in Brazil. I'm glad that he knows we speak Portuguese, even some Brazilians never realise it!
For the next ones starting with "Al", however, I suggest "Aline" or "Alessandra".

From: "Alexandre Aguiar" To: "Phil Smith"
Date: 04/01/2004 21:04 Subject: Re: Cyclone Catarina - Links [Editor's note: date and time on this message are suspect ... received  04/01/2004 before 07:00]
Dear Phil
The state of Santa Catarina Climerh Institute decide to name the hurricane as Catarina. People all over the country (mainly the media) are using that name Catarina (name of the state of Santa Catarina). But, as no one delegated power to any local weather centre to decide the name of the storm - other local institutions could gave other names - we decided to use the name used by international institutions as the UK Met Office. The cyclone will be know around the world by the code 1T, so that is the "name" Climatologia Urbana is adopting and will be using in the future. By the way, as a Brazilian I never heard about Aldonça in the Portuguese language.
I asked our meteorologists about this mentioned episode of 1966, but they have no recollection of that. I promise you to ask them for a more profound investigation. Some of our meteorologists at Climatologia Urbana de Sao Leopoldo have more than 40 years of experience in weather prediction and they can conduct a research on our archive.
I talked by phone to Jack Beven around 1 PM EST Friday and he told me that the NHC had identified a hurricane in the South Atlantic. At this moment, I noticed all the meteorologists' staff of Climatologia Urbana about what I heard from Dr. Beven and at that very moment we entered in red mode, operating 24 hours a day with full staff and warning the public, the local authorities and the media about the severity of the event and the possible consequences. Our experts were astonished by the news that Mr. Beven gave us, but they never doubted or downplayed the NHC/NOAA indication. Meanwhile our staff got very surprised to see that the daily model discussion for South America on the NOAA's HPC website (analysis read daily by Climatologia weather team) did not mention on Friday (26) the risk of high or destructive winds on southern Brazil. They only pointed to the risk of torrential rains and volumes of up to 300 mm.
Just one of our meteorologists speak English fluently, so I will be forwarding you any conclusion or information they have on this event. Our weather experts would like to have a very good discussion with your site's visitors. We are anxious to read about their opinions. As I mentioned in the previous message, our conclusion at this moment is that we were struck by a tropical cyclone (not by a extra-tropical) and we are very inclined to define it as a hurricane.
[snip]
Alexandre Amaral de Aguiar
[Institutional Relations Coordinator]
[Rede de Estacoes de Climatologia Urbana de Sao Leopoldo]
[Sao Leopoldo - Rio Grande do Sul - Brazil]

From: "Adrian Garcia" To: TCDGISS008-E-19647g.jpg (120137 bytes)
Date: 04/01/2004 10:01 Subject: Spectacular ISS Picture of the South Atlantic Hurricane
Hi All,
I have just received a spectacular image of the South Atlantic Hurricane taken by the crew onboard the International Space Station. The picture was taken on March 27, 2004 at 13:58:44 GMT. It was shot with a 50mm lens from a position southeast of the storm. Note the coast of Brazil in the upper left corner.
Note: I have reduced the size of the image in order to send by e-mail.
Enjoy,
Adrian Garcia

From: "Roger Edwards" To:  "TCDG" Cc: "Luiz E. Gava"
Date: 04/01/2004 01:12 Subject: Re: New Member from Brazil
A warm welcome to Luiz! I look forward to hearing more about the impacts of, and studies upon, the most intense South Atlantic TC ever recorded. Also, many thanks to Adrian for posting that fascinating ISS image of Catarina/Aldonça. One aspect of it that kept capturing my attention was the three-dimensionality of the uprising, radial, feathery cirrus extensions off the rim of the CDO shield of Catarina/Aldonça. We see such cirroform radials often, from above, in GOES and polar orbiter VIS imagery; but the obliqueness of the viewing angle lends a very insightful perspective about the flows present.
Artistically speaking, also, those radial cirrus tendrils reminded me very much of floral hairs extending from radial petals. The sheer beauty of the image makes it a keeper.
Adrian -- if you have a bigger version, could you send it to me privately or upload it to a website? Many thanks in advance.
It was just a wonderful shot of that hurricane, all around.
===== Roger =====

From: "Mark A. Lander" To: TCDG
Date: 04/01/2004 11:51 Subject: Re: Spectacular ISS Picture of the South Atlantic Hurricane
Adrian,
That picture is spectacular indeed! There should no longer be any doubt by anyone that this cyclone was a hurricane.
Thanks for that posting.
Regards, Mark L.

From: Jim Leonard To: TCDG
Date: 04/01/2004 13:03 Subject: Re: Spectacular ISS Picture of the South Atlantic Hurricane
Adrian
Thanks for that photo, nice shot..
[snip]
Jim

From: Carl Smith To: TCDG
Date: 04/01/2004 13:39 Subject: Aldonça / Catarina full length satpic animation
Hi All.
Just to let you all know that I have uploaded a full length satpic animation of Aldonça / Catarina at:
http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/2003-2004/aldonca-catarina/aldonca-catarina.htm
Special thanks to Huang Chunliang (is that the correct way to write your name? - apologies if not!) for sending me the already cropped IR images, which saved me a lot of work!
Also on the page is Roger's best track data - hope you don't mind Roger - it seemed like a good idea to extract the table from Phil's now very big page, remove all the peculiar HTML formatting stuff from the tags to allow any browser to display it how it wants, and put it with the animation.
I have deleted the old much shorter version of the animation from the temp directory it was in.
Enjoy!
Regards,
Carl.

From: "Jose Garcia" To: TCDG
Date: 04/01/2004 14:18 Subject: Disturbance in the WPAC
Hi to all...
Adrian great picture! I have a friend who lives in Jaragua Do Sul in Santa Catarina State and told me that they only had rains, seems like the strong winds were concentrated in a small area...
[snip]
Stay Tuned

From: huangchunliang To: TCDG
Date: 04/01/2004 16:03 Subject: RE: Aldonça / Catarina full length satpic animation
>From: Carl Smith
>Just to let you all know that I have uploaded a full length satpic animation of Aldonça / Catarina at:
>http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/2003-2004/aldonca-catarina/aldonca-catarina.htm

Good job, Carl!! Really enjoying this version!
>Special thanks to Huang Chunliang (is that the correct way to write your name? - apologies if not!) for sending me the already cropped IR images, which saved me a lot of work!
Bingo! :P "Huang Chunliang" is exactly my full name ("Huang" being my first/family name). And I usually predigest it as "HCl" in the e-mails.
B.R.,
HCl

From: Roger Edson To: TCDG
Date: 04/01/2004 16:05 Subject: Re: Aldonça / Catarina full length satpic animation
Hi,
No problem using my track. However, I have to admit that I normally would have put it into the ATCF and made sure I did not make any radical movements that I could not justify (when not sure, one should smooth between data point). Also, I did not have an absolutely great shot of the position on the 22nd when it made the loop around 31S, so I might have made an east-west error here.
When I had a combination of MI and scat, I think the position is pretty good.
So,--this was meant as a first guess for people to use until more precision could be obtained (or some studies only needed approx positions anyway).
Roger

From: "Stargazer" To: Aussie-weather
Date: 04/01/2004 16:23 Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hurricane ALDONÇA was: TC Fay and Tropical Storm 01T
Hurricane or TC Aldonça (or Catarina)... I'm confused!?!
Was it a hurricane or a TC (or something else like *they* would have us believe... <please add Twilight music here>)?
I was always told in school that the only difference between a hurricane, TC or even a typhoon was where it was located in the world & if in the northern hemisphere it turned anti-clockwise (anti-cyclonic) or clockwise if located in the southern hemisphere.
Then I read the following (from http://www.drdisk.com.hk/aldonca.htm):
<snip> Editor's Note: The following is a translation made using Altavista of the Portuguese-language page found at http://www.cptec.inpe.br/nota_tecnica.shtml
NOTE JOINT TECHNIQUE CPTEC/INPE And INMET
Extratropical cyclone in the coast of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande Do Sul 29 of March of 2004
The system that reached Santa Catarina in this weekend was not an hurricane. Hurricane is a phenomenon that if form in the hot waters (higher temperature than 27°C) of the tropical oceans, presenting high temperatures in its interior and winds turning in opposing directions in the levels next to the surface and in high levels, or either, about 12 height km. The phenomenon that reached the coast of Santa Catarina is a cyclone, phenomenon that presents low temperatures in its interior and winds turning in the same one felt since the surface until the high levels. The process of formation of the hurricane is different of the process of formation of the observed cyclone. </snip>
... hmm
Regs, Paul. (Stargazer) http://homepages.picknowl.com.au/stargazer

From: Patrick HOAREAU To: TCDG
Date: 04/01/2004 17:10 Subject: TC 01T/ Special page
Hi there,
do not know if it has already been mentioned since I must own to the fact that I have not been able to go through the mails. Hence apologies if it is a repeat.
CIMSS has created a special page dedicated to the already world famous TC 01T.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/brazil/brazil.html
br
Patrick

From: "Heming, Julian" To: Tropical Cyclone Discussion Group
Date: 04/01/2004 17:28 Subject: Re: TC 01T/ Special page
I now have four special pages bookmarked:
http://www.drdisk.com.hk/aldonca.htm
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/brazil/brazil.html
http://tenkimap.com/tc/slant/
http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/2003-2004/aldonca-catarina/aldonca-catarina.htm
Does anyone know of any others?
Maybe this hurricane should have its own web site. www.catarina.com is already registered, but www.ALDONÇA.com isn't! How about it Roger?!
Julian

From: "Gavin O'Brien" To: Aussie-weather
Date: 04/01/2004 19:53 Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hurricane ALDONÇA another opinion;
Paul,
We discussed this at the AGM of AMOS Canberra Centre , last night at the ANU. It seems it may have been a cold cored system as the sea surface temperatures were below the 27 deg threshold to initiate the processes which would make it a true Tropical Cyclone ie;warm cored system with an Eye , a zone of hurricane force winds around the eye and a strong outflow (anticlockwise) at the 250 hPa level (10km).I have looked at the Sat Pix loops and I think it was rather similar to the cold cored "Kona storms" which form in winter near Hawaii except it moved westward steered by the wind patterns north of the High pressure ridge further south Storms in the Hawaii region are often slow moving but can last a week.They often cause flash flooding on the Islands.
I suspect its structure might have been similar to the "East Coast Lows" we see off the N.S.W. Coast in Autumn and Winter.They also can have a clear eye like structure in the centre.Seems the U.S. Hurricane Centre in Miami classed it as a Category 1 Hurricane. In any case its severity seems to have been unusually intense for that region.I await further information and welcome other opinions.
Gavin
SSWW Gilmore Canberra

From: leg To: TCDG
Date: 04/01/2004 20:34 Subject: Previous South Atlantic cyclones
Now I´m looking for previous South Atlantic storms. I could remember of this one. This storm casted 100 Km/h winds over Torres even being far from there.
Seems that it was of a different kind. Perhaps this is what a cold-cored extra-tropical cyclone looks like ?
http://satelite.cptec.inpe.br/imagens/ant_goes/2000/2000_07/gaic8200007161200.jpg
http://satelite.cptec.inpe.br/imagens/ant_goes/2000/2000_07/gaic8200007161800.jpg
http://satelite.cptec.inpe.br/imagens/ant_goes/2000/2000_07/gaic8200007170000.jpg
http://satelite.cptec.inpe.br/imagens/ant_met/2000/2000_07/maic8200007161800.jpg

From: Roger Edson To: TCDG
Date: 04/01/2004 21:05 Subject: Re: Previous South Atlantic cyclones
Yes, you are right. We should send these photos over to our 'buddy' Greg Holland--to remind him what an extratropical cyclone really looks like!
Roger
--- leg  wrote:
[snip]Perhaps this is what a cold-cored extra-tropical cyclone looks like ?

From: Carl Smith To: TCDG
Date: 04/01/2004 21:57 Subject: Re: Aldonça / Catarina full length satpic animation
>Hi All.
>Just to let you all know that I have uploaded a full length satpic animation of Aldonça / Catarina at:
> http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/2003-2004/aldonca-catarina/aldonca-catarina.htm

Update - I have put the animation in it's own page as it took so long to load on my slow old connection when I went there - it is linked from the page above, or you can go there directly at: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/2003-2004/aldonca-catarina/aldonca-catarina-anim.htm#anim
Regards,
Carl.

From: Carl Smith To: TCDG
Date: 04/01/2004 22:04 Subject: Re: Aldonça / Catarina full length satpic animation
Hi Roger (and All).
Thanks for your permission.
I put the word "Initial" in front of "Best Track" in the table header and added "(May need some smoothing)" immediately below it, so no one can be misled into thinking it is an absolutely final verified best track.
Regards,
Carl.

Friday 2nd April 2004      NAVIGATION: MARCH: 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, APRIL: 01, 02, 03

From: Carl Smith To: Aussie-weather
Date: 04/02/2004 12:23 Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hurricane ALDONÇA another opinion;
Hi All.
I have uploaded a full length satellite image animation (3MB) at: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/2003-2004/aldonca-catarina/aldonca-catarina-anim.htm#anim
Viewing the animation, you can see the system initially move offshore, slowly develop into an extra-tropical system, become a hybrid system, then take on fully tropical characteristics as warmer air is wrapped in from a S moving moist airmass to it's E, developing a well defined eye feature that lasted for over two days until landfall.
Whilst it is true that hybrid/extratropical systems can sometimes develop an eye, it is unusual for such a feature to be well defined, and even more unlikely that it would last for over two days.
Further evidence for it's tropical nature comes from an image taken by the crew onboard the International Space Station from southeast of the storm using a camera with a 50mm lens on March 27, 2004 at 13:58:44 GMT - you can see the hurricane-type structure from an angle which should remove any doubt that it was indeed a true cyclone - you can view this image at: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/2003-2004/aldonca-catarina/aldonca-catarina.htm#iss - click on the image to view a larger version.
(also on Phil's page at http://www.drdisk.com.hk/aldonca.htm).
Perhaps those who still think this was a cold-cored extra-tropical cyclone should have a look at these images to remind themselves of what one looks like:
http://satelite.cptec.inpe.br/imagens/ant_goes/2000/2000_07/gaic8200007161200.jpg
http://satelite.cptec.inpe.br/imagens/ant_goes/2000/2000_07/gaic8200007161800.jpg
http://satelite.cptec.inpe.br/imagens/ant_goes/2000/2000_07/gaic8200007170000.jpg
http://satelite.cptec.inpe.br/imagens/ant_met/2000/2000_07/maic8200007161800.jpg
There is also an initial 'best track' prepared by Roger Edson, University of Guam, at: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/2003-2004/aldonca-catarina/aldonca-catarina.htm#track
(also on Phil's page at http://www.drdisk.com.hk/aldonca.htm).
The data in the initial best track table show that it did develop into a full blown hurricane strength cyclone with winds of 80 knots (1-min av), perhaps peaking at 85 knots at landfall.
I have no explanation for this tropical cyclone developing over waters said to be less than 27C, except to say that rules written in books need to be rewritten when undeniable evidence contradicts them.
For my two bobs worth, there is little doubt that it was indeed a hurricane intensity tropical cyclone.
Regards,
Carl.
[Carl was responding to another posting by Gavin on Aussie Weather - details lost, but must have been dated 1st April]
>Paul,'
>We discussed this at the AGM of AMOS Canberra Centre , last night at the ANU . It seems it may have been a cold cored system as the sea surface temperatures were below the 27 deg threshold to initiate the processes which would make it a true Tropical Cyclone ie;warm cored system with an Eye , a zone of hurricane force winds around the eye
>and a strong outflow (anticlockwise) at the 250 hPa level (10km).I have looked at the Sat Pix loops and I think it was rather similar to the cold cored "Kona storms " which form in winter near Hawaii except it moved westward steered by the wind patterns north of the High pressure ridge further south Storms in the Hawaii region are often slow moving but can last a week.They often cause flash flooding on the Islands.
>I suspect its structure might have been similar to the "East Coast Lows" we see off the N.S.W. Coast in Autumn and Winter.They also can have a clear eye like structure in the centre.Seems the U.S. Hurricane Centre in Miami classed it as a Category 1 Hurricane. In any case its severity seems to have been unusually intense for that region.I await further information and welcome other opinions.
>Gavin

>SSWW Gilmore Canberra
[Gavin was responding to the following posting on Aussie Weather]

>>From: "Stargazer" To: Aussie-weather
>>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hurricane ALDONÇA was: TC Fay and Tropical Storm 01T Date: Thu, 1 Apr 2004 17:53:06 +0930
>>Hurricane or TC Aldonça (or Catarina)... I'm confused!?!
>>Was it a hurricane or a TC (or something else like *they* would have us believe... <please add Twilight music here>)?
>>I was always told in school that the only difference between a hurricane, TC or even a typhoon was where it was located in the world & if in the northern hemisphere it turned anti-clockwise (anti-cyclonic) or clockwise if located in the southern hemisphere. [snip - rest of posting lost]

From: Rede de Estações de Climatologia Urbana de São Leopo ldo To: TCDG
Date: 04/03/2004 06:42 Subject: Weather centre in Brazil [Editor's note: actually received around midday HKT on 04/02/2004]
Dear Rogers
I ask you, if possible, to add our weather centre in southern Brazil (Rede de Estacoes de Climatologia Urbana de Sao Leopoldo) in the list you manage on tropical cyclones. [snip]
Our meteorologists would like to greet you, Gary and Phil for your extraordinary contribution to the understanding of this rare and amazing event in Brazil. They will be delighted to take part in the discussions. We are collecting lots of data and soon we hope to share with your group of experts.
[snip]
Best Regards,
Alexandre Aguiar
Climatologia Urbana, Sao Leopoldo, Brazil

From: "Gary Padgett" To: "TCDG"
Date: 04/02/2004 20:57 Subject: More news from Brazil
Here's another story on Catarina sent on another list.
> Here is the latest story that I could find. It would appear that INPE, at least the spokesperson, was stuck on the fact that the system was embedded in a larger-scale upper level trough and they could not clearly distinguish the outflow pattern above the storm. While an experienced analyst can look at the imagery and see that this system had a well developed outflow, those who are not used to looking at hurricanes may not readily see this.
> http://www.brazzil.com/2004/html/articles/mar04/p135mar04.htm

From: huangchunliang To: TCDG
Date: 04/02/2004 22:03 Subject: RE: More news from Brazil
Here in China, the National Meteorological Centre (NMC) also classified the Brazilian storm as a hurricane.
I watched the "MONTHLY GLOBAL METEOROLOGICAL MEMORABILIAS for March" prepared by NMC/CMA last night. And the storm was clearly mentioned as a hurricane in the program. The other TC-related event for March was the landfalls made twice in Madagascar by Very intense Tropical Cyclone (VITC) Gafilo.
HCl

From: "John Woodbridge" To: Aussie-weather
Date: 04/02/2004 22:19 Subject: RE: aus-wx: Hurricane ALDONÇA another opinion;
Conversion of an initially cold cored system to a warm cored extra-tropical system, particularly in the autumn months is not unknown in Australian waters. A recent example which springs to mind was 'The Duck' early March 2001. This showed a clear eye on both Sat pic and radar over 3 days, definitely warm cored and for all intents and purposes a Cat 1 system when it crossed the coast near Ballina, although it was not named as a TC. In this case sea surface temps were probably around 27C also. But water temp might not be so important as having a tongue of moist tropical air available to wrap into the system with a favourable upper atmosphere.
Evidence also shows that many of the East Coast Lows which form from time to time along the East Coast are in fact warm cored in the lower atmosphere, hence the TC like structure which develops. This is well documented in the literature.
John.

From: Carl Smith To: TCDG
Date: 04/02/2004 22:23 Subject: Re: Spectacular ISS Picture of the South Atlantic Hurricane
Hi Adrian.
Thanks for the great pic!
Hope you (and your source) don't mind, but I made a smaller version and embedded it the page above Roger's initial best track table, and linked it to the image you sent, uploaded in the same directory. The page URL is: http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/2003-2004/aldonca-catarina/aldonca-catarina.htm
How big is the original?
If it's not more than a MB or so, perhaps you can send it to me, as I would like to upload that behind the small image instead - unless of course it is already available online somewhere, in which case a link to it would be fine.
Regards,
Carl.

Saturday 3rd April 2004      NAVIGATION: MARCH: 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, APRIL: 01, 02, 03

From: Dosidicus To: TCDG
Date: 04/03/2004 00:57 Subject: Re: Spectacular ISS Picture of the South Atlantic Hurricane
Gorgeous image...thanks!
-John

From: Clyve Herbert To: Aussie-weather
Date: 04/03/2004 06:55 Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hurricane ALDONÇA another opinion;
Hi all.
It is not unknown that equatorward upper cold pools drift into tropical waters of the north Atlantic and develop into full blown Hurricanes and return poleward as warm cored systems, a feature of the 'Duck' over the north Tasman Sea was it appeared to develop a warm core centred mainly surface to 500hpa but retained a weak cold core above 300hpa, and appears to not have made a full conversion prior to making landfall but never the less was well on its way to showing us the process, I would defiantly say that 'ALDONÇA' made a full transition to a full warm cores system(although I suspect it may have been mainly below 380hpa) in its last 30 hours or so of activity prior to crossing the coast.
regards Clyve.

From: leg To: TCDG
Date: 04/04/2004 09:05 Subject: More ISS pictures of Aldonça
I´ve just found the golden mine, thanks to Earth Sciences and Image Analysis Laboratory, NASA Johnson Space Centre. There you can request the hi-res version for download.
http://eol.jsc.nasa.gov/scripts/sseop/photo.pl?mission=ISS008&roll=E&frame=19641
http://eol.jsc.nasa.gov/scripts/sseop/photo.pl?mission=ISS008&roll=E&frame=19642
http://eol.jsc.nasa.gov/scripts/sseop/photo.pl?mission=ISS008&roll=E&frame=19643
http://eol.jsc.nasa.gov/scripts/sseop/photo.pl?mission=ISS008&roll=E&frame=19644
http://eol.jsc.nasa.gov/scripts/sseop/photo.pl?mission=ISS008&roll=E&frame=19645
http://eol.jsc.nasa.gov/scripts/sseop/photo.pl?mission=ISS008&roll=E&frame=19646
http://eol.jsc.nasa.gov/scripts/sseop/photo.pl?mission=ISS008&roll=E&frame=19647
http://eol.jsc.nasa.gov/scripts/sseop/photo.pl?mission=ISS008&roll=E&frame=19648
http://eol.jsc.nasa.gov/scripts/sseop/photo.pl?mission=ISS008&roll=E&frame=19649
http://eol.jsc.nasa.gov/scripts/sseop/photo.pl?mission=ISS008&roll=E&frame=19650
http://eol.jsc.nasa.gov/scripts/sseop/photo.pl?mission=ISS008&roll=E&frame=19651
http://eol.jsc.nasa.gov/scripts/sseop/photo.pl?mission=ISS008&roll=E&frame=19652

From: "Igor Freiberger" To: Phil Smith
Date: 04/05/2004 16:19 Subject: About Catarina Hurricane [revised text]
Dear Phil,
I read your page about Aldonça/Catarina hurricane. As I live in Porto Alegre and followed this interesting phenomenal I may give some additional information.
Firstly I must say I don't know anything about weather issues (I'm a lawyer!), but I searched for further info on the web just because local "technical" information about Catarina was imprecise and obviously deficient.
The Name
Aldonça sounds very strange because this is a word out of Brazilian Portuguese. It may sound like a woman name, but a stranger one :-). Since the very first new I heard here, about Friday 26th at local 1:00PM, news agencies are using "Catarina" name. They said this name was given by the US technicians, who are the first to identify the hurricane in South Atlantic. So, the name was not originated by Brazilian Meteorologists – at least, this what all news here reported.
It appears someone looked at Brazilian map and saw "Santa Catarina" State, which coast was near the hurricane. Actually, "Santa Catarina" translates to "Saint Catherine", but the first American Meteorologists to name the hurricane simplified it. As all the Brazilian news on web, TV and newspapers adopted "Catarina" since the first notices, this is the name the hurricane got known here.
Hurricane or cyclone?
When I said Americans were the first to notice, this mean that information from NASA and Miami's National Hurricane Centre were the first to arrive and notify Brazilian authorities and news agencies about the storm. They also classify it as a hurricane since the very first sign. Many technicians around the world may also noticed the hurricane very early, but the first news even in Brazil came from these American agencies.
Local news are reporting just a storm. The interesting issue is that the "storm" was well reported since early Friday, but nobody here gave it a "hurricane" dimension. Local news were honest and reported that American Meteorologists classify Catarina as a level 1 hurricane, but Brazilians said this is technically incorrect due to the temperature in the eye and same wind directions in base and top (hurricanes are supposed to have contrary directions). Anyway, they reported the "hurricane or cyclone" issue more as a kind of technical discussion.
News are saying it may be a strong storm and navigation was not recommended at all. Local Meteorologists gave interviews and all them refused to admit it's a hurricane. They understood Catarina as a extra-tropical cyclone with very uncommon characterists, strong winds but small effects at the coast. Later, the same Meteorologists admitted their huge mistake and asked for better weather apparels, as radars and software.
I'm reporting this in some detail to justify my opinion: it seems the authorities are not masking the hurricane with a "weaker" name as cyclone. What happened is that Brazilian Meteorologists simply does not understood what was happening. All I heard said the same incorrect thing: "it's a cyclone, it will not hit the coast in a strong way, people who lives in coaster cities will live a somewhat strong storm and it's all".
So, to use the duck figure, Catarina seems a duck, walks like a duck and quacks as a duck. The problem is that Brazilian Meteorologists just know swans! A hurricane is a so new matter they simply misevaluated information and underestimated the hurricane force.
Some people said that Americans identifying the hurricane and teaching this to local Meteorologists may be irritating for Brazilians – and because this the "hurricane" classification was refused. Not true. Everybody knows US and other countries have a much more developed weather technology and knowledge about this kind of phenomenal.
Maybe because Brazil is lucky not to have very much problem with natural disasters, local Meteorology seems not to be well developed. Their ask for better conditions is fair, but if people for various countries were able to identify a hurricane from the early satellite images, our local specialists have to learn something.
It's almost clear local Meteorologists knows just these "cyclone" storms because they saw just this during all their lives. And, of course, as this was the very first hurricane in South Atlantic and also with unique characteristics, this may confused things. To be fair, TV and newspaper reports are still discussing if Catarina was or not a hurricane, and Meteorologists around the world are still giving interviews about the issue. I just read an interview with Jack Beven from Miami's National Hurricane Centre in today's newspaper, and Catarina occurred a week ago.
Catarina In Action
This explanation about why Catarina was not a hurricane for Brazilian specialists does not change a very negative note: based on their analysis, authorities were not ready to the hurricane. Population from coaster cities were taken by surprise because they are simply waiting for a strong winds with some rain. Until Catarina, "hurricane" was a word associated just with Florida or Caribbean Sea. Authorities learnt the harder way this is not true anymore.
I received a long and detailed report from a person who lives in Porto Alegre but was in Balneário Gaivota ("Seagull Beach", near Torres) during the phenomenal. He and his family were in a simple, small house they keep there for holidays. Saturday night the wind begun to increase and soon turned a very strong and continuous wind storm. They immediately understood the "cyclone" reached the coast and was stronger than announced.
The house was like a jelly and they moved the heavy furniture to a room at the back. They stayed there because the wind comes from the front. There was no light, no telephone or cellular. Outside, many houses had their top removed by the wind. Some trees are also removed but it was difficult to see more because the night was completely dark.
This lasted about one hour and then all became calm. The sky returned to be almost clear. They got some news with a battery radio, where the hurricane was reported in further detail. Radio said the hurricane was still passing and people must protect themselves because the wind would begin again. They got impressed but could not imagine how a clear sky like that could turn again in a storm.
Soon the wind came back, stronger and with an interesting difference: now it comes from the opposite direction. The back room was then more affected, with all windows broken, but they couldn't go to the front rooms because they were already damaged. This second wave lasted about 1:30 hour and finally the storm calmed.
Just the day after, in a war-like landscape, they understood why the wind came in two phases and opposite directions: the hurricane eye passed by. Firstly, they were under the "upper" hurricane circle. Then the sky got clear because the eye was passing. Finally the wind came back with opposite direction just because it was the "bottom" half of the circle.
The final results are about 33,000 residences and buildings with heavy damages within a 150km radius region. Two deaths were confirmed and seven fishers still missing, while four other were saved. Hundreds of trees fallen down and some of the roads are still unavailable. Here in Porto Alegre, 120km from the coast and about 250km from the cities Catarina hired, we had just strong winds with very few rain.
More details, with photos and a map indicating the affected cities, can be found here: http://www.clicrbs.com.br/especiais/diversos/frameset_furacao.htm
A search by "Catarina hurricane", "Catarina cyclone" or "furacão Catarina" will give deeper results. Furacão is the Portuguese word for hurricane.
Main Brazilian news site are www.agestado.com.br, www.globo.com, www.terra.com.br, www.jbonline.com.br, www.uol.com.br and www.clicrbs.com.br. Although these are Portuguese sites, it's not difficult to translate at least the main text on the web with Google or AltaVista.
Igor Freiberger – Porto Alegre, Brasil

From: leg To: TCDG
Date: 04/06/2004 11:42 Subject: Looking for that 1966 storm
Looking for that 1966 storm...
The only huge "storm" mentioned that year on Brazilian newspapers (through my research) was a meteor storm: thousand per minute leonides falling stars on November 17 1966, feeded by the comet Tempel-Tuttle.
That was a difficult year in Brazil, indeed. But perhaps they mentioned 1966 because of the 1st geostationary meteorology satellite ?
Looks like this was ATS-1 (USA's Advanced Technology Satellite 1), launched December 7 1966.
So since 1966, the sats never had seen anything like a hurricane over South Atlantic.
That sounds as a poor translation or news copy&paste, loosing the possible original meaning.
Over internet, an unexpected finding:
January 10 1966 - "uma tromba d'água destruiu a seção da linha de bondes"
A water spout destroyed a train line at Rio de Janeiro.
More on this: http://www.efbrasil.eng.br/electro/efc.html

From: "Gary Padgett" To: TCDG
Date: 04/06/2004 19:59 Subject: Re: Looking for that 1966 storm
> That was a difficult year in Brazil, indeed. But perhaps they mentioned 1966 because of the 1st geostationary meteorology satellite ?
Hi Luiz,
It seems plausible that the mention of 1966 was made because that was the year that is often considered the beginning of full operational satellite coverage. Of course with a media report you never know if an error was made or not.
Regards,
Gary

From: huangchunliang To: TCDG
Date: 05/13/2004 13:56 Subject: Catarina: New link
Hi all,
Have just found a new link for Hurricane Catarina:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/catarina.html
Regards,
HCl

Links to other discussions, pictures, and news reports:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/catarina.html
http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/2003-2004/aldonca-catarina/aldonca-catarina.htm
http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/2003-2004/aldonca-catarina/aldonca-catarina-anim.htm
http://www.weather.org.hk/discus/messages/1/5008.html?%20SaturdayMarch2720040417pm
http://www.weather.org.hk/discus/messages/1/5009.html?TuesdayMarch3020040310pm
http://www.weather.org.hk/discus/messages/1/5012.html?FridayApril220041215am
http://www.weather.org.hk/discus/messages/1/5019.html?MondayMarch2920041036am
http://www.templeton.gen.nz/forum/viewtopic.php?t=354
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/cgi-bin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=12;t=000168
http://forum.ski.com.au/scripts/ultimatebboard/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=7;t=006411
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/8286042.htm?1c
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=TJW2JONYWZVY0CRBAE0CFEY?type=scienceNews&storyID=4676141
http://www.wunderground.com/geo/BrazilStorm/global/stations/83096.html
http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/tcimages/Misc/
NOAA Movie loop: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2004/mar/brazilcane.html
http://edition.cnn.com/2004/WEATHER/03/26/hurricane.brazil.reut/index.html
http://edition.cnn.com/2004/WEATHER/03/27/hurricane.brazil/
http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/to_omkommet_i_brasiliens_forste_hurricane__
http://www.knmi.nl/voorl/nader/tropischecyclonen.htm

Acknowledgements and details of contributors

Firstly I want to thank all of the contributors below who have contributed to this page.  Details are given where known. Details will intentionaly be vague where permission has not yet been gained to publish full details here.
As I have to search through thousands of saved e-mails for information, this list may take quite some time to complete.  As I enter information about each person I shall change their name to a bold font.

"TCDG" List: is an informal group of Tropical Cyclone enthusiasts, both professional and amateur, from all corners of the globe who enjoy discussing by e-mail storms which occur anywhere around the world.
huangchunliang: Huang Chun-Liang is a Tropical Cyclone enthusiast who, after majoring in Communication Engineering at University, is now working for a communications company in Fuzhou in Fujian province which is just across the straits from Taiwan.  He is well known for gathering data on NWP Tropical Cyclones and circulating them to the TCDG list.
David Roth: David Roth is a professional meteorologist working with a United States government agency.
Matt Crowther: Matt Crowther 
Steve Lyons
Gary Padgett: Gary Padgett is now retired having previously worked with a United States government weather agency. Gary is famous among list members for his monthly Tropical Cyclone Summaries which give a great deal of detailed preliminary information about all TCs that are observed world-wide.
Adrian Garcia
Dosidicus: is John Wallace, San Antonio, Texas, USA.  Student, tropical meteorology hobbyist
Roger Edwards: Roger Edwards is a professional meteorologist with a United States government weather agency. He is based in Norman, Oklahoma.
Konon, Boris
Roger Edson: Roger Edson works at the University of Guam.
Heming, Julian: Julian Heming is a Tropical Prediction Scientist at the UK Meteorological Office in Exeter, Devon, UK
Matthew Saxby: Matthew Saxby, originally from PNG, is a postgraduate student at Australian National University, a keen amateur TC enthusiast, and lives at Queanbeyan, NSW.  He has also done some excellent photography work.
Kevin Boyle
"Fogarty,Chris [Dartmouth]": Chris Fogarty is a professional meteorologist with Canadian Hurricane Centre, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Canada
Michael V. Padua
Jim Leonard
Jack Beven: Jack Beven is a professional meteorologist with a United States government weather agency.
Eric Blake: Eric Blake is a professional meteorologist with a United States government weather agency.
Dickson Fu
Carl Smith: Carl Smith, younger brother of the Editor of this page, is a retired electronics expert, very keen amateur TC specialist, and computer graphics whizz, who was born in Victoria, has lived in several cyclone-prone areas right across Northern Australia, and now resides at Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia. His specialty is the production of excellent enhanced satellite pictures and animations which he shares with the group. Carl's Current Tropical Cyclone Information page usually mirrors the current storms portion of my Typhoons page and has many useful links leading to all sorts of information about any current Tropical Cyclones.
Patrick HOAREAU
Bill Ward: Bill Ward works with a United States government weather agency.
Simon Clarke
"leg": (His real name is "Liuz", but he prefers to be called "Leg").  Leg is a keen amateur astronomer and weather enthusiast, who graduated in Computer Science and now works as a comuter networking expert for Terra-Lycos, a major ISP in Brazil.  He lives in Porto Alegre.
"Amaral Krebs - Advogados Associados"
"Alexandre Aguiar"
Mark A. Lander
Jose Garcia
Rede de Estações de Climatologia Urbana de São Leopo ldo

"Aussie-weather" List: is an e-mail list of weather enthusiasts from all around the globe who have an interest in Australian weather.   It commenced operation with a handful of enthusiasts on 10th September 1998, and has since grown to include a very large number of participants.
Simon Angell
Jane ONeill: Jane ONeill lives in Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, and is a keen storm chaser who is interested in all things relating to weather. She does an excellent job of her Australian Sky and Weather web-site which includes some wonderful weather humour pages and the Weather Cafe which contains many pages of useful links.
Gavin O'Brien
"ASWA Victoria": ASWA Victoria
"Stargazer"
Carl Smith: Carl Smith, younger brother of the Editor of this page, is a retired electronics expert, very keen amateur TC specialist, and computer graphics whizz, who was born in Victoria, has lived in several cyclone-prone areas right across Northern Australia, and now resides at Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia. His specialty is the production of excellent enhanced satellite pictures and animations which he shares with the group. Carl's Current Tropical Cyclone Information page usually mirrors the current storms portion of my Typhoons page and has many useful links leading to all sorts of information about any current Tropical Cyclones.
John Woodbridge
Clyve Herbert: Clyve Herbert is retired at Woodend, Victoria, Australia, and is a very knowledgable weather enthusiasts who always keeps an eye on all things tropical.

This page was last edited on 07/02/2008 at 06:43:33 Hong Kong Time (UTC+8 hours).

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