Tropical Cyclone Report

Tropical Storm Lowell

Lowell was a poorly-organized tropical storm that formed in the western portion of the eastern Pacific basin and moved generally westward over the central Pacific where it dissipated.

a. Synoptic History

Lowell originated from a weak westward moving disturbance that crossed Central America on 12 October. The disturbance was probably associated with a tropical wave that exited the west coast of Africa earlier. Shower activity began to increase on the 18^th when the disturbance was approaching 120 W, but it was not until 1800 UTC 22 October that the system developed a broad circulation and enough convection to be considered a tropical depression. The depression became a little better organized as it moved slowly on a general westward track and became a tropical storm at 0600 UTC 23 October, and the maximum winds reached 40 knots six hours later. Thereafter, a strong southwesterly shear began to affect the system and the center became exposed. A gradual weakening trend began and Lowell became a tropical depression. The tropical cyclone continued westward and crossed 140 W into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) area of responsibility around 0000 UTC 26 October. Lowell continued westward and as the shear relaxed, the convection redeveloped near the center and winds increased to 45 knots near 1200 UTC 28 October for about 6 to 12 hours. A gradual weakening began shortly thereafter and the system was dissipating by 0000 UTC 31 October.

The "best track" chart of the tropical cyclone's path is given in Figure 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figure 2 and Figure 3, respectively. The best track positions and intensities are listed in Table 1. The best track west of 140 W was provided by CPHC.

b. Meteorological Statistics

Observations in Lowell (Figs. 2 and 3) include satellite-based Dvorak technique intensity estimates from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) and the U. S. Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA).

c. Casualty and Damage Statistics

There were no reports of damage or casualties associated with Lowell.

d. Forecast and Warning Critique

Lowell was a tropical storm for a short period of time in the NHC area of responsibility. Therefore, the average track forecast error values should not be considered meaningful.

Figure 1: Best track positions for Tropical Storm Lowell, 22-31 October, 2002.

Figure 2: Selected wind observations and best track maximum sustained surface wind speed curve for Tropical Storm Lowell, 22-31 October, 2002.

Figure 3: Selected pressure observations and best track minimum central pressure curve for Tropical Storm Lowell, 22-31 October, 2002.