What do big state calendar changes mean for NH?

November 27, 2006 – 2:26 pm

I recently wrote about the changes that big states changing their primary date will have in terms of increasing the amount of money required and thereby creating a higher barrier to entry. But there’s are several strategy points here.

First, the schedule for all practices purposes would be IA followed by big states. This would mean that IA would set the tone and establish the field. If NH is only 1 week before CA or FL, then most of the people in CA or FL will already have made up their minds by Wednesday or Thursday before their elections. Therefore NH won’t matter.

In terms of GOP politics, Mitt Romney — who I predict will win IA after spending 1 week there — will benefit from the schedule. But NH, which McCain will win, will want a role and Bill Gardner may yet change the schedule. Again, a similar dynamic may apply on the Democrat side, although I think that Hillary’s money advantage still becomes prohibitive.
Therefore, here’s a prediction: If CA and FL move up their primaries, then NH will move ahead of IA. You read it here first.

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On McCain being a frontrunner

August 21, 2006 – 10:32 pm

There has been much discussion today of McCain’s frontrunner status. Today’s granddaddy article on McCain has to be the NYT’s piece on all the people that he has recruited. It was mostly a list of Washington Insiders. Other stories have pointed out that he has been lining up people in early states also.

RCP also had an article on the changing GOP after 9-11. That new GOP is then used an an explanation for why McCain and Giuiliani are the front-runners.

What is so interesting about McCain being the frontrunner is that conservatives run around saying “It ain’t so” or “It won’t be so”. So how were they doing that? Well, today Matt Lewis (Human Events) said that McCain is fighting the last campaign:

While this is certainly a major coup, there is always the famous lament that every operative always wants to run the last campaign. The point is that sometimes the outsiders are the ones who are the innovators, while the insiders paint-by-numbers. Still, it’s hard to argue with experience and success.

In essence, he is arguing that there will be a sort of deus ex machina. A similar point was made on Redstate several days earlier in a post entitled “We are the New Deciders”, where they tried to give blogs the credit for pullng this off:

… but all of this navelgazing at McCain’s endorsements strikes me as old school.

McCain is in essence fighting the last war, locking up the endorsements he imagines were denied to him last time. But what McCain forgot is that Bush won the hearts and minds of Republican primary voters while he also won their leaders’ endorsements. Bush was able to be successful because the endorsements/fundraisers/”smart money” were in line with the actual wishes of Republican primary voters.

…

Since 2000, we’ve also seen the growth of a little thing called the blogosphere and YouTube, which will likely alter the playing field dramatically for candidates intent on running the old top-down playbook.

Is the Blogosphere going to make a big difference? Can they outbuzz someone with 100% name ID, great popularity, etc.? Can they pick up on something stupid? Sure. But we aren’t dealing with someone like Allen who just wasn’t read for prime time. So the question is, does McCain have a strategy? And can he actually win?

Our sense is yes.

First, there will be early states. IA, NH, SC, AL, MI, AZ, followed by media. So some guesses on the first states. McCain comes in 2nd in IA, 1st in NH and MI. Probably first in SC. Sure first in AZ. In each of these states (except AL? I just don’t know) McCain has high quality teams on the ground now. The upshot is McCain has a good chance of coming out of these in very good shape.

Second, there will be the money game. To win as Charlie Cook pointed out in his letter to TNR about George Allen, one of the questions is going to be “Can he raise $100m by IA?”. This is because the schedule is going to be very, very compact, as it will be for the Dems. As soon as the early states are over, the campaign will switch to national media. McCain will have the money. His frontrunner status will beget more money. And everyone already knows who he is, saving him time and money on TV. Probably only Romney can compete in the money game from day one. In response to Redstate, it is important to note that the Blogosphere cannot raise this level of money.

Therefore, the real question will be whether McCain will have an opponent after the early states who will be willing and able to fight to the convention — like Reagan did in 1976. That will be the question. And will there be constituencies willing to support that kind of fight. I doubt it.

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Dems move up NV and SC, Screw NH

August 19, 2006 – 11:57 am

Hotlineblog has some of the details (unfortunately, something is screwed up with their link). The Chicago Tribune and Manchester Union Leader have the best coverage.

First, the procedure. The DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee passed a resolution fixing the beginning of the 2008 Dem primary and caucus schedule. Today it will be considered by the full DNC and is expected to pass. Details from the Trib:

Unless there is unexpected maneuvering, the Democratic calendar will begin with the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 14, 2008, followed by Nevada’s caucuses Jan. 19, New Hampshire’s primary Jan. 22 and South Carolina’s primary a week later. After Feb. 5, other states would be allowed to hold primaries and caucuses.

Why do schedules change? To pick winners. In 1988, Lee Atwater moved up South Carolina because he could deliver it for Bush. In 1992, Zell Miller moved up Georgia because he could deliver it for Bill Clinton.

Now Harry Reid is moving up Nevada because he can deliver it for … ? Note that Clinton is currently doing terribly in the polls in NH and is tied with Edwards in IA. But, especially in a caucus situation, Reid can almost certainly deliver his state. (On the other hand, Reid appears to have asked Clinton to take over leader in 08 because he has a tough re-elect in 2010) The NH Dem Chair confirms this (Hotline):

“Unless a rule is directly related to taking back the White House, or helping to build this party, I’m not sure why we should be considering it,” she said. “The rules and bylaws committee shouldn’t be in the business of hurting candidates for the nomination. We should be helping them.”

It also creates a more liberal and less white electorate:

While the consequences for selecting a nominee with this order of states are uncertain, adding Nevada as one of the early states could give union members a larger say, considering the number of hotel workers there. It will almost certainly also hasten the front-loading that has already transformed the contest from a months-long slog into a sprint lasting just a few weeks.

This has been reported as a big win for the labor unions, but this is a big win for SEIU and the service worker unions, not the industrial unions. The industrial unions hold sway in IA and MI. Now the other guys — the guys who are growing — have a say. NV is also much less white.

NH’s Manchester Union Leader titles this: “Dems Push Primary Penalty”. For them the story is that NH is getting the long end of the stick. You see, Bill Gardner, NH’s SOS has said, rules be damned, NH will be first. And, by law, he sets the date (more details here, care of NH Insider):

State law says the primary must be held seven days ahead of any “similar election.” Gardner has said that an additional caucus may fit into his broad interpretation that the law requires him to preserve the primary’s traditional impact on national politics, even though party-run caucuses are structured much differently than state-run primaries and may not be “similar.”

Ultimately, NH doesn’t matter because of convention votes, especially in a front-loaded, media-and-money-driven calender. It has a relatively small number in both party conventions. It matters for momentum. The press will report the winner, whatever happens. And it will have an impact on who wins the swing state in 2008 where 4 electoral votes really could make the difference:

Joining Sullivan in criticizing the measure was DNCer Alice Germond, who said she was concerned about the “unintended consequences of this,” including “repercussions that might result in our not winning that state in the general election.”

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