Last week in Australian Dire Climate Change Prediction Just a Fantasy we questioned the validity of climate change reports prepared by Australia’s supposed leading scientific research organization CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific & Industry Research Organization).
Those reports were extensively quoted by by Federal Agriculture minister Tony Burke & Prime Minister Kevin Rudd in the mainstream media to convince Australians to act now on climate change or perish.
Tony Burke:
Federal Agriculture Minister Tony Burke has likened a scientific study into links between climate change and drought to the final chapters of a disaster novel. Mr Burke today released a joint assessment by the Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO, which found that what are now considered to be one in 25 year climate events could become as frequent as once every one to two years.
Kevin Rudd:
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has told ABC1’s Insiders the report paints a very disturbing picture about the future of droughts in Australia…
“Exceptional circumstances drought conditions … will occur twice as often and with twice the area of droughted parts of Australia included. Now this is a serious revision of the impact of climate change on drought.”
Shock Horror - we’ll all be doomed screamed the mainstream media - without questioning the validity of the reports, after all they were quoting Australia’s own CSIRO. Well I was skeptical and so too were our readers. See readers Comments.
But then Dr David Stockwell, a leading expert on ecological niche modeling, decided to check the CSIRO’s figures and assumptions, and found, surprise surprise:
….it is highly likely the confidence intervals were grossly underestimated and so it is also likely that only one or two regions (SWWA) show statistically significant increase in predicted droughts, not 3 or 4 as claimed by the authors. I am more confident in my original assessment that the results show no significant increase in drought due to greenhouse warming in almost all regions of Australia
Stockwell’s conclusion is hampered by the fact that can’t get all the data and calculations the CSIRO used to fashion the latest of its alarmist reports.
He’d asked the CSIRO to hand over the data for this peer-reviewing, but got this answer:
I’m not able to hand over the data from the 13 models, due to restrictions on Intellectual Property, but I can describe the methods used to determine statistical significance.
The CSIRO refuses to expose its analysis to experts for checking by independent Scientists even though Stockwell, believes it is seriously flawed.
The CSIRO’s report is the basis for a renewed Government fear campaign that could lead to the spending of billions of dollars on a problem that may not exist.
Scientist Steve McIntyre in Australia’s leading Science blog “Climate Audit is scathing of the CSIRO in his article on the issue.
As I had said in comments on the issue CSIRO now stands for Completely, Scary, Incredulous, Rubbish, Organization.
Convincing the Australian public that it must act now on climate change is actually more critical too the Rudd governments survival. See this excellent appraisal of the situation by the Australian Editor Paul Kelly to understand what is happening here. Government caught in Carbon Crunch
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Have Your Say! What do you think.
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Tags: CSIRO, Kevin Rudd, Propaganda, Tony Burke
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