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Tropical Storm BEATRIZ


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2005
 
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND WHAT LITTLE THERE IS
REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  DVORAK T
AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST THAT BEATRIZ HAS FALLEN
BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  WITH THE CYCLONE CONTINUING TO MOVE
OVER SUB 26C SSTS...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/9.  THIS TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF
AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MOTION...AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
CYCLONE DECOUPLING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES.  GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CURRENT WILL WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE REMNANTS OF BEATRIZ ULTIMATELY
PULLED SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT ANTICIPATES THAT BEATRIZ WILL DISSIPATE
BEFORE INTERACTING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE TRAILING DISTURBANCE.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0300Z 17.2N 111.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 17.5N 113.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 17.7N 114.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 17.7N 115.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     26/0000Z 17.6N 115.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     27/0000Z 17.5N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 23-Dec-2005 17:25:26 GMT