Poll Tracker

Yet another poll handicapping a potential race in Pennsylvania between Republican Sen. Arlen Specter and MSNBC "Hardball" host Chris Matthews: Rasmussen Reports has Specter leading Matthews by a bare 46 percent to 43 percent with 7 percent preferring someone else and 4 percent undecided. The poll was conducted Dec. 2 and has a 4 point margin of error. Specter's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 60 percent to 37 percent, while Matthews' is 49 percent to 37 percent with 15 percent "not sure." (They must be CNN-watchers). The moderate Specter has only a 68 percent favorability rating in his own party but benefits from being viewed positively by 48 percent of Democrats. As far as actual support, 70 percent of Republicans say they would vote for him and 32 percent of Democrats said they would too. (For the earlier polls on this match-up, click here).

Last week, Matthews denied a report on the blog FiveThirtyEight that he was "staffing up" for a run. But the Politico reported today that Matthews was "dead serious" about it.

When Californians voted for Proposition 8, providing for a state-wide ban on same sex marriage, exit polls showed that 7 out of 10 black voters supported the measure. Gallup has followed this up with an analysis of its polling data from May 2006, May 2007 and May 2008 showing that on this issue, black Democrats are as conservative as Republicans.

Thirty-one percent of black Democrats said that homosexual relations are morally acceptable compared to 61 percent of non-black Democrats and 55 percent of Democrats overall. That number put them more in line with Republicans among whom only 30 percent found such relations morally acceptable.

When Californians voted for Proposition 8, providing for a state-wide ban on same sex marriage, exit polls showed that 7 out of 10 black voters supported the measure. Gallup has followed this up with an analysis of its polling data from May 2006, May 2007 and May 2008 showing that on this issue, black Democrats are as conservative as Republicans.

Thirty-one percent of black Democrats said that homosexual relations are morally acceptable compared to 61 percent of non-black Democrats and 55 percent of Democrats overall. That number put them more in line with Republicans among whom only 30 percent found such relations morally acceptable.

Most Americans say they would prefer to live in communities that have political, racial, religious and economic diversity, but when the "facts on the ground" are analyzed, the data suggest Americans may "talk one way, but behave another," according to a Pew Research Center analysis.

Six in ten Americans said in a survey conducted Oct. 3-19 that they wanted to live in a diverse community. Sixty-three percent said they would rather live in a community where there was a mix of political views, 65 percent wanted to live in a racially diverse community, 59 percent want to live in a community where there are many people with different religions, and 61 percent expressed a preference for communities where there was a mix of people from different socioeconomic classes.

Public reaction to Barack Obama's choices for his national security team was positive with 69 percent approving of the selection of Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State and 80 percent voicing approval of the decision to keep Robert Gates as Defense Secretary, according to a Gallup poll conducted Dec. 1. In mid-November, 57 percent backed the idea of choosing Clinton.

Gates' approval rating was the higher because he won plaudits from 89 percent of Republicans while Clinton was backed by only 40 percent of them.

Overall, 78 percent of Americans approve of the way Obama is handling his transition.

While there has been much made by the press, political observers and partisans about the high number of staff selections that have drawn on people from the Clinton administration, this is not resonating greatly as a an issue in the eyes of the public. Seventy-seven percent of Democrats say these choices will make Obama's team more effective, a view also held by a majority of independents. A plurality of Republicans say it will make no difference.

There is a sharp partisan divide about pushing through a large economic stimulus package. Democrats favor it 77 percent to 13 percent while Republicans oppose it 63 percent to 32 percent.

Health care is one of the issues near the top of Barack Obama's agenda, and when Americans are asked what about their top concerns, they cite access, cost, obesity and cancer in that order, according to a Gallup poll conducted Nov. 13-16.

First-term Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss holds a 53 percent to 46 percent lead over Democratic challenger James Martin), a former state representative, as Georgia voters go to the polls for Tuesday's runoff election, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Nov. 29-30. Only 1 percent is undecided and the margin of error is 2.7 points.

PPP says Chambliss is leading 71 percent to 28 percent among whites meaning that for Martin to offset that with his 88 percent to 11 percent advantage among blacks, black turnout would have to be 34 percent. On election day, with Barack Obama on the ticket, black turnout was 30 percent.

An earlier poll by Research 2000 survey conducted Nov. 23-25 had Chambliss leading 52 percent to 46 percent.

Forty-two percent of voters strongly approve of Barack Obama's performance as President-Elect while 19 percent strongly disapprove, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll published Nov. 30. If those who "somewhat" approve or disapprove are added to the numbers, Obama's favorable to unfavorable ratio is 63 percent to 34 percent.

There's been a lot of speculation that Chris Matthews, host of MSNBC's "Hardball" is mulling a run against Pennsylvania Republican Arlen Specter in 2010. The blog FiveThirtyEight reported Friday that Matthews was "staffing up" and was likely to run. Matthews quickly denied it. The Harrisburg Patriot-News said today that Matthews "isn't ready to say he's running for the U.S. Senate from Pennsylvania, but he continues to talk with top Democrats about the possibility," including Democratic State Committee Chairman T.J. Rooney and executive director Mary Isenhour.

Matthews, who once ran unsuccessfully for Congress in Pennsylvania, started all this speculation himself in April when he said "I want to be a Senator."

First-term Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss holds a 52 percent to 46 percent lead over Democratic challenger James Martin), a former state representative, in their Dec. 2 runoff battle, according to a Research 2000 survey conducted Nov. 23-25. Two percent are undecided and the margin of error is 4 points.

Research 2000 makes the same observation that Public Policy Polling did in its Nov. 22-23 poll: that Chambliss has been able to widen his lead because, this time around, Barack Obama is not on the ballot to lure a larger turnout. PPP had Chambliss leading Martin 53 percent to 41 percent.

An InsiderAdvantage/Politico poll conducted Nov. 23 had Chambliss ahead 50 percent to 47 percent with 3 percent undecided.

"This thing's going to be a nail-biter. We don't know who's going to turn out and we don't know how it's going to turn out, but it's going to be a close race," said InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery.

The runoff was forced when Chambliss fell short of the 50 percent needed to win out right, beating Martin 49.8 percent to 46.8 percent with 3.4 percent for Libertarian Allen Buckley. Georgia and Minnesota, where a recount is going on, are the last two chances Democrats have to reach the magic number of 60 in the Senate, which is enough votes to break a filibuster.