Hi,

I clicked on the poll results and from what I see, the ‘take a break’ got 37% and the coalition got 28%. I think you have them reversed.

VC

Didn’t Harper say this morning that public opinion was on his side?

Does he ever stop lying?

37% for break + 19% for election. I call that 56% for Harper’s side. Do you retract your accusation Mr. Guy?

Conservatives in majority territotry, 44 percent…

You left out the important part. Here, I’ll help:

The Conservatives appear to have won the initial public relations war surrounding the current impasse on Parliament Hill, during one of the most chaotic weeks in Canadian political history, a new EKOS poll conducted for the CBC suggests.

The results suggest support for Stéphane Dion’s Liberals is down two percentage points from the election with 24 per cent of respondents’ support, while the New Democrats are down almost four percentage points at 14.5 per cent support.

If by “huge division” you mean “large shift of pissed off voters to the Tories”, then your post makes sense.

“Conservatives in majority territotry, 44 percent…”

Yeah, minus 10 Quebec seats. Lessee, that means they just need to pick up, oh, 21 seats in the rest of the country. Hmm, yeah.

The public is with the good guys. =D

“HARPER IS DAMAGED OMG HE HAS TO GO OHNOESOHNOES!” /lameness.

A poll yesterday by Angus-Reid had a plurality of Canadians favouring the coalition:

If the Conservative minority government is defeated, what would be your preferred solution?

Not sure 24%

I don’t retract anything by the way. I learned that from Herr Harper.

wjat a bunch of bullshitters these pollster are..his face even gets red when he is giving out the results….to cover his lies he states….these results will probably take a dive tomorrow…how do we let these influence our thinking.

Is this a case where one saw what they wanted rather than what was there?

Other posters are correct, support for the coalition is only at 28%, compared to 37% who want a break and 19% who want an election.

It’s really amazing how Conbots think we have a presidential system.

The main conclusion of the pollsters is that we’ve all lost perspective:

“Bottom Line: Despite initial favourable response to the Conservatives, the public are flummoxed and angry. Dispute seems to be aggravating existing national fault lines.”

In other words, just like a hockey game where the coach is yelling at the kids, the kids are beating on each other and the parents are threatening the referees, IT’S NOT ABOUT WHO HAS THE HIGHEST SCORE!

I feel your pain, jack Mitchell, and it is delicious. Yum!

Canada is now a dictatorship under the Harper régime.

Jack Mitchell:

The Tory support in Quebec is relatively stable. The Liberal support in Ontario has fallen like a rock. Plummeting 10 points since the election, with the Tories going up 5 points.

Ti-Guy:

Wait.. I thought 62% of Canadians ’supported’ the coalition? As I recall there is even a website by that name. Ooops. I guess not everyone who voted NDP/Liberal/BLOC is happy with the way their votes are being misused.

Hey, I was pushing for prorogation, Belfort, FWIW.

The “pain” on my part stems from this fine scenario Harper has cooked up for us, in which he will never get a majority and never be able to govern with a minority. So the government is permanently paralysed. And his supporters are perfectly happy with that, as long as they get to vent.

The figures are fixed now, with apologies from Kady.

Wait.. I thought 62% of Canadians ’supported’ the coalition? As I recall there is even a website by that name. Ooops. I guess not everyone who voted NDP/Liberal/BLOC is happy with the way their votes are being misused.

Gosh, yer clever! I wish I were a Conservative. They’re always so clever.

southernontarioan: “The Tory support in Quebec is relatively stable.”

It’s dropped two points, and the hardcore anti-separatisse rhetoric only began the day before yesterday.

Make no mistake, Harper is gambling with the future of the country, besides kissing his majority goodbye.

The coalition was doomed from the moment they plastered the web with 62% buttons on a jean jacket. My guiding principle in life has been to avoid people in jean jackets like the plague and it has worked out pretty well.

44%

Wow!

Great news!

Cons shouldn’t celebrate these polls - Dion probably plays a significant part in these numbers. The bad news for the Conservatives is that he’s going, maybe faster than originally planned after all this, and Harper is staying. Would love to see the results of a poll on who is the most to blame for this mess.

This poll is terrible. Are the respondent’s supposed to predict what will happen or say what they would _like_ to happen. And who says that the government will fall on the next vote. And in any case, who can answer this question responsibly without knowing what kind of bill they were going to be defeated on? Value of this poll: zero.

What’s not to celebrate, Greg?

The entire time, all we’ve heard is how together, the NDP and the Liberals represent more of the electorate than the Conservatives …

Liberals @ 24% + NDP @ 15% = 39% total support

Conservatives = 44%

It’s certainly worth celebrating! It appears Canadians are siding with us.

>I don’t retract anything by the way. I learned that from Herr Harper.

We all learned it from Jean “Never Apologize” Chretien.

Cons should celebrate the polls. Coalition supporters would be preening non-stop if the numbers supported them.

Ti-Guy: Did you notice the question (from your link) above the one you posted?

Should the opposition parties get together and topple the Conservative minority government headed by Stephen Harper?

Yes
36%

No
41%

Not sure
23%

I think it’s pretty clear that things were too close to call yesterday.

Why such pertinent info left out Kady?

Pollster Ipsos Reid asked Canadians who would “best be able to manage Canada’s economy during these troubling times” and three of five — or 59% — named Mr. Harper over a coalition headed by Liberal Leader Stephane Dion.

In other words, most Canadians think the Coalition sucks.

Gord.

I want to see what % of Canadians would support both Harper and Dion resigning as a solution to this crisis. I predict +95% support.

I think it’s pretty clear that things were too close to call yesterday.

Perhaps. But when Harper asserts something so confidently, it must be because he’s lying. It’s certainly not because he’s stupid, right?

Interesting items from Kady’s poll:

Only 59% of Conservative voters favour proroguing.

56% of Liberal and 44% of NDP voters favour the coalition taking power right now.

Ipsos has Conservatives at 46%. The public has spoken and they side with their elected prime minister, not the leftist plotters nor their enablers in the media. Amen.

If you can have a federal election in 5 weeks, surely you can have a liberal leadership election within the same time period.

I don’t like Harper, but Dion is an embarrassment as a leader, a horrible communicator. Even people that don’t want Harper often don’t want Dion in because he’s such a horrible communicator.

The liberal party should move up the leadership convention do have it done 1st or 2nd week of January so a real leader can take over. Someone who isn’t so emotionally illiterate and so monstorously inept as a retail politician.

Dion may or may not be a good PM, he’d probably be better than Harper, but he’s horribly incompetent as a communicator, and too arrogant to accept advice from people who can actually communicate well. Chretien had a strong French accent but he was a very skilled communicator in English and an excellent retail politician.

There’s a very big danger that there will be another federal election if the coalition votes down the budget (maybe the tories have something embarrassing on the Governor General) and can anyone in the liberal party really want someone as inept as a retail politician as dion running another campaign?

Tory majority for sure and an even stronger defeat for the liberals. I don’t like Harper but I don’t want Dion running another campaign.

So if the Liberal party want’s a shot at power again they need to replace dion and replace him fast. Also fire whoever was in charge of that taping of Dion.

Stop preening. Brad Sallows thinks that’s graceless.

Kady is rather selective with the numbers:

Conservatives 44

Liberals 24

NDP 14.5

That’s how Canadians responded to the question of how they would vote if an election were held. No wonder this sad coalition wanted to wrest power without going to the people.

Stephane Dion, putschist, there is something vaguely ridiculous about seeing Stephane in that role, and he was true to form last night. How many takes did they have to do before they finally got the tape out to the channel-changed public yesterday. My guess, 15.

Memo to anyone trying to pull off a similar putsch in the future - get someone at the helm who looks the part.

Provincial breakdowns in key provinces (BC, ONT, QUE) by voter intention - this poll as opposed to last election (last election in brackets):

BC

Conservatives: 47.3 (44.4)
Liberals: 18.1 (19.3)
NDP: 23.0 (25)

ONT.

Conservatives: 49.0 (39.2)
Liberals: 27.5 (33.8)
NDP: 14.2 (18.2)

QUE.

Conservatives: 20.2 (21.7)
Liberals: 25.4 (23.7)
Bloc: 37.4 (38.1)
NDP: 10.4 (12.2)

Those numbers are astonishing. Frankly, I’m amazed at how well this has gone over in BC and Ontario for the conservatives, and how little their numbers have dropped in Quebec. More interestingly, this survey was done on the 2nd and 3rd, so it would be largely unaffected by Dion’s awful performance last night.

The ugly events of the last week should really hurt everybody; I’m very surprised that they seem to be rewarding the Tories.

My feeling - as an Ontarian - is that the Conservative numbers will CRASH here if Harper is seen as instigating a national unity crisis. National peace and tranquillity is Ontario’s #1 desire, and if Harper can’t deliver that he’s out. They might get a brief bump by claiming the Liberals and NDP are in bed with the Bloc, but if there’s an angry backlash in Quebec and/or the West Ontario will be looking to whoever can diffuse the situation: probably whichever of the Liberal or Conservative parties backs down first.

Jonathan: “I’m very surprised that they seem to be rewarding the Tories”

That’s because you’ve been reading the Maclean’s blogs where leftist partisanship reigns.

Obviously the Canadian people do not like the spectacle of an individual who lost support in an election trying to seize power anyway.

Your regional breakdown of that poll shows the Conservatives would romp to a majority based on the support in Ontario. BC and Quebec seat counts would remain steady for the Conservatives, while they would easily pick up 20 seats in Ontario.

I think Kady should have been a lit bit more balanced in her headline here and in her reading of the polls. Even Liberal Dosanj admitted that he received more e-mails negative to the coalition than positive.

Right on Brad Sallows.

” My fellow Canadians I am not a cowardly little whimp . I earned every stutter , every shifty eye , every coiffure and every womans skirt I hide behind . ” ”

Sucks to be you little people . I will take a two month vacation while the Finance dept little people continue with budget being worked on since last July puke out . Want E.I. payments welfare bums ? Move to sunny Alberta and take a lesson from Stelmac cutting oil royalitys again . Oil profits down to 10 - 12 % range and Texas shareholders are starving , Texas refiners are on Xmas shutdown and American stockyards are segregating your contaminated beef . Sucks that you don’t have modern lumber mills or meat slaughter / packaging houses . Buy your own P.M. / Ad firm as any non socialist would do .

I’m cross-posting what I said elsewhere, as result of today’s events, cooler heads will prevail.

The cause of this mayhem is the power vacuum in the Liberal Party of Canada. This was an attempted power grab by the left, including what has become the left-leaning Liberal Party under Dion’s helm. What the Liberals did was most un-Liberal. The proof is in today’s poll showing the Tories at 44% of the popular vote. Dion has disgraced himself with last-night’s showing.

This failed coup d’etat will be another chapter to his sorry legacy as Liberal leader. Can’t the Liberals move up their convention before this amateur hour damages irreparable damage to the Liberal brand?

stewacide - my feeling - as an Ontarian - is that you are wrong, that Conservative support in Ontario has grown, and that you are really really really reaching for an excuse to claim that the opposite will happen. To suggest that Harper has instigated a national unity crisis takes quite the imagination. Enabling the Bloc is a setback for unity, not opposing the Bloc. We want the Bloc to get less votes, not more votes.

sf: No, it’s because I’m genuinely upset at Harper’s about face (given his actions when Paul Martin was in power).

I’m not a fan of Dion, but I’m very surprised that the fallout isn’t more evenly split.

I’m also a little annoyed that Kady didn’t bother to include the “if an election were held now” data. It seems pertinent.

“I’m cross-posting what I said elsewhere, as result of today’s events, cooler heads will prevail. ”

Ontario voters are too stupid to realize that steve the slimeball gets to look at stats Can. projections before his subjects do ? Jan. /08 steve the cowardly whimp will have no place to hide .

Can we just kill the coalition now? Liberals should be worried as hell.

Ipsos: CPC 46, LPC 23, NDP 13, BQ 9, GPC 8
Ekos: CPC 44, LPC 24, NDP 15, BQ 9, GPC 8
Compas: 72% biz leaders see worse economy under Dion coalition

sf, there’s now a significant risk that Marois will win a minority in Quebec. Thanks, Stevie! Just what we needed!

Regardless of whatever else happens, I think it’s clear that from a Liberal point of view, Dion needs to go, and as quickly as possible.

Only 68% of Liberal voters (and 53% of NDP voters) feel that a coalition led by Dion would be the best to handle the economy. Compare this with 89% of Conservative voters for Harper.

I suspect that a Dion exit would see an increase in Liberal fortunes; but then, I thought that this would hurt Harper too, so what do I know?

Incidentally, there are few things sadder than watching anonymous internet posters rail against the Canadian public for being too stupid to see things their way.

Jack Mitchell, who’s fault is that? Charest was doing fine until the “coalition” started to take matters into their own hands. They’re the ones who decided to share power with a separatist party, not Harper.

Conservative support has grown in Ontario because they’ve been viewed as competent managers, and the Liberals are viewed as incompetent. But this political brinkmanship is exactly what Ontarians, to their core of their political being, seek to avoid.

Right now the impression most people have is that the coalition came out of nowhere. But if the impression develops that Harper’s hyper-partisanship is the problem Ontarians will want that problem to go away.

In particular, perhaps unlike the West, there is NO LOVE for Harper personally. A Conservative Party sans Harper would get a big poll bump in Ontario everything else notwithstanding.

Um… is it just me, or is this question terribly confusing? “closest to your view” could mean “what you think is going to happen” or “what you WANT to happen.” The question sets up a hypothetical about the future (”Harper will likely,” “parties want to”), and then asks, assuming this actually happens, “which is closest to your view”, and then phrases the responses in the present-tense (taking a break, replacing the government), NOT conditional (should replace, should take a break). It’s bizarre and misleading, and invalidates the poll in my view.

Johnathan: “I’m also a little annoyed that Kady didn’t bother to include the “if an election were held now” data. It seems pertinent.”

OK, as opposed to before, when I thought you’ve been reading Maclean’s blogs too much, now I’m getting the impression that you never read the Maclean’s blogs. O’Malley’s blog is partisan, she’s a Liberal, and it shows, in every post. Only a couple of the political blogs even try to be neutral.

“Incidentally, there are few things sadder than watching anonymous internet posters rail against the Canadian public for being too stupid to see things their way.”

Agreed.

Innocent observation: I’ve never heard of EKOS

Silly Question/
Nik Nanos does better work!
I forget - isn’t EKOS Allan Gregg - former Mulroney turd polisher?
The polls are irrelevant - this has gone far beyond Joe Sixpack - it has gone to the level of - how to stop Harper irrevocably splitting the nation?
This - the guy - who -for short term political gain - called the population of Quebec “a Nation” now declares their elected representatives “Separatistes” even though they didn’t dare mention the word in their last election campiagn because Separation is about as toxic in Quebec these days as Harper is - that it - until Harper let loose the Tiger!
What I think this will precipitate - over the next few days and weeks - is the fundamental contest - Harper has reduced this to a black and white contest - my way or the other way!
Well - since he only has any power at all because he united the Right - he has now - as of today - started the process of permanently uniting the Centre / Left!
I suspect the first step will be - after he loses the next vote of confidence - because this guy is TOAST - if somehow he manages to persuade / bully the GG to call an election - the Centre Left Parties will reach an agreement never again to split the Centre / Left vote - the 66% of the popular vote (actually slightly higher - because it will include those who formally voted for the Greens) will blow the 37% (assuming those who voted for Harper because he looked like the lesser of several evils - don’t realize that he is the biggest evil of them all)…and the Centre / Left will sweep in with a 150 seat majority!

Ah ha ha ha.

Now, no matter what the Libs do, in the next election Harper will argue:

“If I don’t get a majority, the Liberals with once again team up with the Bloc and NDP.”

Massive majority.

Anybody starting to think that Harper may have pulled a huge Mulroney-style “roll of the dice” and planned this all along?

I don’t think anybody but you is thinking that Cool Blue, no matter how much we support the conservative party.

WW: Allan Gregg is with Harris/Decima. IIRC, Ekos polls generally showed slightly lower Conservative support than others, but I may be wrong on that.

In any case, if you read the “conclusions” section in the link Kady provided, you’ll see that the pollsters seem to have a pro-coalition slant; at least, that’s my reading of their comments.

No worries Brent as almost nobody has ever heard or cared about CAITI.

Hey regardless of which side you’re on or who you like, our Parliamentary system of democracy was made a mockery of, that is no good for any of us.

I voted Conservative in the last election yet I am ashamed by the pettiness on display by our PM, he is the PM, the leader of our country not some schoolyard kid, I expected more than partisan games and technicalities ruling the day. And now our government is shut down for 2 months!?! Ridiculous.

In the next election will there be an option to vote for a Lib-Dipper Coalition ((If required), (policies and election platform TBD)) candidate or will there just be a chance to vote for Liberals or NDP candidates ?

Pete

Dion is a bloody fabulous communicator in his own language, which is French. If we weren’t such a country of ignorant bastards we’d all see that.

Cool Blue - this is a little like New Coke/Coke Classic in that there is no way the government could have planned to pull off something this crazy and fraught with danger.

Having said that, these numbers should be a huge concern to Liberals. Here we are with bad economic news raining down every day, and instead of just sitting back and letting the government take the blame, they decided to make a hasty power grab. As a result, they have badly damaged their brand for an undetermined period of time. If you are an Ontario Liberal MP, you have to be really nervous right now. You are probably also going to be looking to find something in the budget for which you can take some credit so that you have an excuse to vote for it.

I find myself wondering if this won’t ultimately be viewed as a lost opportunity for Michael Ignatieff. We all know that he was very cool to the coalition, but couldn’t muster up the courage to publicly denounce it. He could have put an end to this silliness a few days ago, but instead went along for the ride. Now, Ignatieff gets to wear this fiasco also. He should have listened to his instincts and nipped it right in the bud last weekend.

Dennis Prouse: Now, Ignatieff gets to wear this fiasco also. He should have listened to his instincts and nipped it right in the bud last weekend.

====

I’m sorry, but Harper instigated this whole sordid affair with a completely unnecessary and ineffectual partisan power grab by trying to bankrupt the opposition under the auspices of an economic crisis while offering nothing of substance for Canadians. He will wear this both inside and outside the CPC. Anything else re Harper and this fiasco is pure spin….and I am not saying the oppo doesn’t share in the blame, but in more of a secondary manner.

Assuming that those responding to the poll had any grasp whatever of what’s been happening and the basic principles of a parliamentary democracy, does it really matter what the polls say now? Six weeks is a very long time in the current political and economic climate.

Let’s see, a political party’s leader steps down in mid October, but stays on because the party can’t get itself together to choose a new leader until late April of the following year. They will mark time in parliament till April while a severe economic downturn is gathering larger unemplyment numbers.

And these characters are going to become the lead in a coalition that will implement measures to deal with the economy?

He is a coward.
He has revealed to the opposition all it takes to break him
Break him they will
They PR battle ain’t worth sh*t

I await the crying of Albertans for subsidies for their oil well and the tar

WOW, just WOW! reading all the weeping and ‘arpeur is a meanie crap just shows me that the political process in this country is bereft of any kind of talent. NDP - nope, Liberals - out to lunch, no policy nada, Cons - just playin’ in the sandbox with the other kids. BLOC - picking your pockets, while you look the other way. PATHETIQUE. All of you pouting and preening at the same time. A bunch of prancing prima donnas out to “get power” while the country burns. How much do we pay these guys?

There should be no election, but orders to the current government to GOVERN and the rest of the snot noses STFU and get to work supporting the government in power with some well thought out critcism. That is their job and it was handed to the lot of them last election. Cut the crap! Stick your big fat egos where the sun don’t shine, because this taxpayer will quit sending checks to Ottawa if the bunch of them don’t smarten up in the next few weeks!

Baldygirl: I guess it’s a matter of perspective, but, errr… No, he isn’t.

Also: 20% for the PCC in Québe cwith a 4% margin of error? There are big polls coming out this week-end re: the provincial campaign. Maybe they will also poll about federal voting? Then we’ll have a better idea.

Anyway; the ROC is giving something like 50% of support to the conservatives (lowest support outside of Qc being 39% or so in the maritimes…). 20% in Québec just isn’t a lot, dontcha think? And it may very well be around 12-15% next week.

Dunno, but that’s, hum… That’s disturbing. I mean, even Charest (of all people) referred to “Québec Bashing”.

The trifecta

Ipsos: CPC 46, LPC 23, NDP 13, BQ 9, GPC 8
Ekos: CPC 44, LPC 24, NDP 15, BQ 9, GPC 8

The Strategic Counsel: CPC 45, LPC 24, NDP 14, (no BQ numbers)

Wow it sure shows that PPG and there coalition friends have a feel for the people.. What a blunder by Harper..

When was the last time the CPC polled like this?

Nothing would give me greater satisfaction than to see Dion lead this country out of the scorched earth wilderness that Harper has created. While I strongly disagree with those who believe that Dion is not the best person to guide this country through the increasingly difficult times ahead, the fact remains that they seem to be in the majority. If the impediment to the acceptance by Canadians of a Liberal government is seen to be Dion’s leadership, then the LPC will continue to languish in the polls and at the ballot box unless he steps aside now. Failure to respond to the wishes of the majority of Canadians will simply reinforce the criticism that the LPC is arrogant, that they think they are the natural governing party, and that the LPC
knows what’s best, not Canadians. It’s simply not enough to urge Canadians to vote against the Harper government; they must want to vote for the party which has a leader they support.

The liberals are not going to be able to shake this off so easily. In the next election, hell from now until then there will be adds all over the radio and TV reminding people who the Liberals teamed up with Socialists and Separatists. It may cost us a few seats in Franc… er I mean Quebec but it will gain many more in Ontario and especially out west. All that great footage and quotes of Iggy supporting Dion.

I can’t wait for the next election!!!

I love that 62% report that did not vote for Harper. Unfortunately 74% did not vote Liberal and 90% did not vote NDP. Nobody cares how people didn’t vote, but the number looks better.

Chretien was a bigger bully than Harper and we kept re-electing him, God knows why.

Harper is still the best of the four to get the job done.

Wascally Wabbit:

I’m sure you had the same objections to say.. Scott Brison or Paul Martin back in 2005 when they were accusing the Tories of ’sleeping with the separatists’ and such.

Coalition, what a farce.

Dion : Hello GG we are here from the Coalition.

GG: Who is we?

Dion: Jack and me

GG: You have 113 seats, why are you here?

Dion: Gilles is in the car, but he can’t actually conme in for political reasons.

GG: I can’t accept your coalition.

Dion: Why not?

GG: Political reasons.

Dion: This is unfair!!

Kady :

Instead of pages of conbots telling us what is , why not an M.P. watch ? A conmouth Minister was on CBC this morning telling how he would love to be home buying presents and decorating the house for Xmas but he is in Ottawa working . ( at the Ottawa bunker , or Parliament Hill ? )

This 2 month Xmas vacation is a disgrace & their pay should be docked as well as benifit plan suspended !

I guess it’ll be light posting from Kady today and the next couple of days as she mourns yet another loss for her team. Since an end was put to this fiasco by the Governor-General, Kady puts up one post: an inaccurate one about the state of Canadian public opinion.

Being disappointed with Kady’s posting’s inacurracies is akin to being disappointed with Pravda’s reporting in the former Soviet Union. You should know when you come here that you get the official party spin, which includes tendentious reading of poll results. If you want something more accurate you should go to the source documents themselves. They are pretty damning for the left-wing parties I’d say,

psos: CPC 46, LPC 23, NDP 13, BQ 9, GPC 8
Ekos: CPC 44, LPC 24, NDP 15, BQ 9, GPC 8

The Strategic Counsel: CPC 45, LPC 24, NDP 14, (no BQ numbers)

You won’t see those numbers in Kady’s post, you get a rose-coloured interpretation of events worthy of a true beleiver.

“You won’t see those numbers in Kady’s post, you get a rose-coloured interpretation of events worthy of a true beleiver.”

Tell us exactly what your M.P. is doing . He is not one of the 19,000 Canadians that got a pink slip in Nov. / 08 .

He is one of the 308 Canadians in Arizona , Baha , Cuba ……….. after harper laid them off with full pay and a goldplated benifit plan .

Now CBC is saying harpers little people are toiling night and day on a January budget ? What has the entire Federal Finance dept been doing since their July update ?

I wouldn’t mind the prorogation so much if it didn’t give Privy so much time to bury the bodies, but I’m getting used to it.

Opinion polls have overwhelmingly supported the Conservatives if an election were held today. The Coalition is very unpopular.