The Shape of Things to Come - Why Age Structure Matters To A Safer, More Equitable World

April 11, 2007

Elizabeth Leahy with Robert Engelman, Carolyn Gibb Vogel, Sarah Haddock And Tod Preston

"In an increasingly interconnected world, progress in the areas of development, security and human rights must go hand in hand. There will be no development without security and no security without development."

These words, contained in a comprehensive 2005 report by former U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan, underscore the reality that the threats to the well-being and security of our world—from HIV/AIDS and terrorism to climate change and poverty—require a bold mix of interventions and partnerships that combine elements of both 'hard' and 'soft' power.

One area of growing attention on the nexus between 'hard' and 'soft' power, particularly given the focus of policymakers on terrorism and security, is the issue of fragile or failing states. From government to academia, there is an increasing desire to understand what makes a state 'healthy'—healthy in the sense of more peaceful, more democratic, and better able to provide for the needs of its citizens. Additionally, there is a growing sense that steps must be taken toward achieving poverty alleviation in a more concerted fashion.

What follows is the result of more than two years of research and analysis. From this work, we conclude that population age structure can have a significant impact on countries' stability, governance, economic development and the well-being of its people. Most importantly, we find that age structures are dynamic and can be influenced—and shaped—through policies that affect the demographic forces (i.e. births, deaths and migration) that determine these age structures.

In looking to the future and the shape of things to come, this means that programs that promote the demographic transition—family planning, girls' education, maternal and child health, HIV/AIDS prevention, care and treatment--must be an integral part of development assistance. Extreme poverty, disease, inadequate health care, and lack of educational and economic opportunity—particularly for women—all pose risks, both in terms of human well-being and in state security.

Collectively, we must do more to support developing nations as they move along the path to universal access to family planning and the protection of individual rights. These modest investments can pay enormous dividends, as has been shown in the development of the Asian Tiger nations in East Asia. With one-half of the world's population under the age of 30, and one-half of the population of sub-Saharan Africa under age 20, the needs are great. Time is of the essence.

Amy Coen, President and CEO
Population Action International