WHY CHINA FEARS OBAMA
The danger of an attractive America
E-Mail Article
Printer-Friendly
3-Column Format
Translate
Share Article
Text Size
In contrast to the general rush in most parts of the world to congratulate Barack Obama and hail a new era of American leadership, an initially muted response from Beijing followed by an outburst in the state-run China Daily immediately after the inauguration is significant.
It suggests that he enthusiasm with which Obama was received in Europe will not be replicated in China, at least not in the Communist leadership. On the contrary, the new president may well fan old Chinese fears, pointing to difficult times ahead in the most important bilateral relationship for the world.
The editorial on Jan. 22 in the China Daily, the official English-language newspaper frequently used by Beijing to voice its views to the rest of the world, was extraordinary in its harshness, given the Chinese Communist Party's usual prudence in refraining from public criticism of America.
The article began by criticizing President Bush for taking a "wrecking-ball" to world affairs.
Then, turning to Obama and his vision for America, the paper said "U.S. leaders have never been shy about talking about their country's ambition. For them, it is a divinely granted destiny no matter what other nations think." Obama's "defense of U.S. interests," the article said, "will inevitably clash with those of other nations."
Today in Opinion
Tough editorials in the China Daily, especially about America, are not issued lightly. In many ways, Chinese rulers and policy experts are obsessed with America. In a study of 100 recent articles by leading academics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), I found that about four in every five were about the United States - understanding the American system and political values, or how to limit, circumvent, bind or reduce American power and influence. Within these themes, several emerged that help better understand the thinking behind articles such as the one in the China Daily.
One was that Beijing views international politics in broadly neorealist terms - the distribution of power in the world will determine tomorrow's conflicts. In particular, China clearly sees building competition between itself and America as the defining big-picture strategic play.
Beijing believes that tension can be managed, but never resolved, between the established power and the emerging one. Tension is a structural inevitability. Beijing believes that America is currently distracted by its two wars and a weak economy, but that Washington's strategic attention will soon turn eastwards. As one prominent CASS analyst puts it, the "spearhead will soon be pointed at Beijing."
Second, the Chinese experts view America as a unique superpower which relentlessly seeks not only to build and maintain its power, but also to spread its democratic values.
This is of grave concern to the authoritarian Chinese leaders, because they believes that America will have difficulty accepting a greater leadership role for Beijing so long as Communist Party remains exclusively in power. Senator John McCain's "League of Democracies" might never become a formal reality, but Beijing believes that it already exists de facto in U.S. military alliances with Asian countries.
Third, Beijing fears the American democratic process. While the West views democracy as an advantage since it can offer an institutional and bloodless process for renewal, Beijing views it as a source of irrationality and unpredictability. Many in Beijing believe that the democratic process can cause uncomfortable shifts in policy that might disrupt the best laid plans.
This brings us to why Beijing fears Barack Obama.
In Beijing's eyes, President Bush followed an ambitious but reckless foreign policy. In the attempt to extend American power, he sacrificed American influence; his broad "war on terror" opened up huge strategic opportunities for China.
As America became distracted by war, China made tremendous gains in Asia - undermining America's relationship with allies and partners in the region while putting itself forward as a uniquely "Asian power."
In contrast, President Obama could present a difficult challenge for Beijing. Like all presidents since World War II, Obama seeks to continue protecting and extending America's leadership role in the world - which Beijing believes to be to its detriment.
But unlike Bush, Beijing believes that Obama better understands the facets of American power and influence - hard power versus soft and "smart" power, coercion versus legitimacy, inducements versus persuasion, and the power of example.
Scholars at CASS have spent considerable effort trying to analyze understand the advantage the United States gains whenever it produces charismatic leaders such as John Kennedy and Ronald Reagan - and now Obama.
In short, Beijing is wary of attractive presidents who may replenish the reserves of U.S. leadership and influence in the world.
Moreover, Obama spoke in his inaugural address about defending freedom against authoritarian "isms," whom he relegated to "the wrong side of history." Once that meant the Soviet Union; this time it was China. This is not the message Beijing wants to hear from a new American president.
John Lee is a visiting fellow at the Center for Independent Studies in Sydney and the author of "Will China Fail?"
Latest News
Blogs: Passages
» Read Passages
