Given the weather related delays and controversies experienced during the 2008 World Series, there have been many members of the media raising the idea of a neutral site for baseball’s ultimate competition.  I’m slightly skeptical, as these media members are getting into the games for free, staying in nice hotels, and eating free meals while being paid to cover the games.  All that is lacking for them is the guarantee of nice weather for them to get in a few rounds of golf, eat at al fresco restaurants, and be safe in only packing the short-sleeve giveaway shirts that they frequently receive.

There have been many ’side ideas’ that have been put forth to make the overall experience of a neutral site more palatable.  I’ve heard everything from games every day with no travel days, general managers having town-hall meetings with season ticket holders, meet and greets with hall of fame candidates and legends, and consolidating the post season award presentations.  The result:  a 7-day royal mash-up of all things great about the game in a climate full of ‘chamber of commerce weather’.

But what about the fans from the cities that have followed their teams through over 170 games over the previous six months? I’ve heard that ‘packages’ would be made available to season ticket holders.  Really?  For all seven games, or some subset?  What if I’m already in debt for my $1,000 investment in a partial season ticket? (the price goes up from there)  What about the people who go into debt just to be able to afford an entire single game experience (tickets, hot dogs, Pepsis, ice cream, peanuts,  t-shirts and programs?) with their family?  What about the people who are in the right place at the right time at their work, where someone can’t use the company or vendor-provided tickets, and can only get to a game through free tickets?

I’d like to propose some ways to reduce the cost burden for the die-hard local followers who would need to travel to a neutral site World Series for what could be a once in a lifetime experience:

1.  Sell Personal Seat Licenses (PSL’s) to corporations or wealthy individuals.  Hey IBM, Apple, Exxon Mobil,  you want in?  Pay up for the privilege of paying for the tickets.  We’re talking the potential to be a witness to American sports history every year.  How valuable is that to your clients? Let’s find out.

2.  Sell naming rights to the World Series.  “Allstate presents the World Series”, “The World Series, presented by Hewlett-Packard”, “The PapaJohns.com World Series”. And no 20-year commitment, corporate America.  Put it out to bid every year.  Even better:  take two bids, collect half the money, and assign one bid to the NL, one to the AL.  Then play the All-Star game, with the winning bid tied to who wins the game.  The winner pays the other half of what’s due, and the loser can only bask in the publicity of being a finalist, where their brand gets visibility for part of the time while only having to pay half of the naming rights fee (sorry, I mean “partnership”).

3. Finally, allow regular fans to volunteer to work the stadium concessions and building maintenance during the World Series.  In return for their loyal volunteer indenturing, give their immediate families bus tickets to the site (round trip of course), the ability to purchase standing room tickets for batting practice and maybe a chance to meet the veterans committee from the Hall of Fame.  PSL?  Now it stands for Personal Seat Labor, everyday fan, and your loyalty and sweat are much appreciated.  Clean a toilet, see your favorite team play for all the marbles.  Provide the temporary laborers and their loved ones a place to stay on the outskirts of town, maybe in a youth hostel or dormitory on the other side of the tracks.  Any food not sold at the end of the game can be consolidated into a massive post-game buffet for everyone, with massive doggie bags provided for the following day’s brunch.  What a bonding experience for the fans!

Does the soul of the game change?  Maybe.  But Charlie Steiner can wear the same clothes he wears to call Dodger games.  Ray Ratto gets a guarantee he’ll be somewhere with better weather than San Francisco instead of a wish for it.  And Peter Gammons can “close the door” on the thought that if this was such a good idea, why wasn’t it started in time for the 2004 Fall Classic?

Check those medications, Peter. I fear an adverse interaction may be lurking.

Dave Harrison was born 14 years before Tug McGraw struck out Willie Wilson.  He moved to Boston 14 years before Foulke-to-Mientkiewicz.  He moved back to Philadelphia 14 years after Joe Carter haunted the deepest recesses of his mind, but just in time to experience the redemption of witnessing Lidge strike out Hinske. One of these days, he swears he is going to figure out this game. 

Chuck Johnson takes us back 52 years, to an amazing – and dry – World Series.

The 1956 World Series featured another matchup of New York borough rivals, Brooklyn’s Dodgers and their neighbors from the Bronx, the Yankees. In 1955, the Dodgers had finally achieved their “next year” and beat the Yanks in a six game Series.

In 1956 the Yankees powered their way through the season, winning 97 games and finishing nine games ahead of the Cleveland Indians. Behind Mickey Mantle’s Triple Crown, four hitters with 20 homers and four pitchers with double digit wins, the Yankees went into the Series with hope of regaining their lost Championship trophy.

The Dodgers, on the other hand, had fought tooth and nail all season with the Milwaukee Braves and Cincinnati Reds. As a matter of fact, heading into the season’s final weekend, the Dodgers trailed the Braves by a game. A three game sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates combined with the Braves losing two of three in St. Louis gave the Dodgers the NL crown on the season’s final day. The Dodgers had five pitchers with double digit wins, including 27 by big Don Newcombe. The offense was led by Duke Snider and Gil Hodges.

The series began in Brooklyn, with the Dodgers winning both games, behind a Sal Maglie complete game and a Game Two slugfest after the Yankees knocked out Newcombe in the second inning. The Yankees came back and won Games Three and Four at the Stadium, tying the series and setting the stage for what would become the greatest postseason pitching performance in history.

In the Game Two offensive show in Ebbetts Field, the Yankees had started swingman Don Larsen. Larsen had posted an 11-5 record during the season, starting 20 games and appearing in another 18 in relief. The Dodgers scored four unearned runs off Larsen in his inning and two thirds, with Larsen walking four hitters.

Larsen was a 27 year old pitching in his fourth major league season and second with the Yankees. His rookie year was spent in the final season of the St. Louis Browns. In 1954 he moved with the team to Baltimore, and in 28 starts, posted a W/L record of 3-21. Larsen struggled with his control early on; in three of his first seven seasons he walked more hitters than he struck out. Larsen went to the Yankees following the 1954 season in the famous 16 player trade. In 1955, spending part of the season in the minor leagues, he turned in a 9-2 record in 19 games. Following the 1956 season, Larsen would spend another eleven seasons in the major leagues, with seven different teams, retiring with a career 81-91 record and a reasonably decent 3.78 ERA.

Faced again with going up against a lineup which had pushed him around just three days earlier, and with four Hall of Famers in the starting lineup (Jackie Robinson, Pee Wee Reese, Duke Snider and Roy Campanella), Larsen nonetheless went about his business as normal.

Larsen had experimented at times with a no-windup delivery, and he went to it right from the beginning of Game Five. He inexplicably had impeccable control, reaching a three ball count on just one hitter throughout the game.

Scoreless heading into the bottom of the fourth inning, Mickey Mantle crushed a Sal Maglie pitch deep into the right field seats for a 1-0 lead. In the top of the fifth, Mantle made a great running catch in left center, robbing Gil Hodges of extra bases. The Yanks scored another run in the sixth, making the score 2-0. Heading into the seventh inning, the Dodgers had yet to have a baserunner.

In the seventh, Pee Wee Reese flied to deep center, as did Sandy Amoros in the eighth. With still no baserunners heading into the ninth, all attention was no longer on the score, but on Don Larsen. Carl Furillo opened the ninth inning flying out to Hank Bauer in short right field. Roy Campanella was next and grounded weakly to second base. With the pitcher’s spot scheduled next, Dodgers manager Walter Alston sent Dale Mitchell to the plate to hit.

Mitchell was a 34 year old lefty hitting outfielder who had come over to the Dodgers in a cash transaction at the end of July. Mitchell had spent the first ten and a half seasons of his career in the American League with the Cleveland Indians, making two All-Star teams in the process. Unbeknownst at the time, this appearance would be the second to last of his career, as he retired following the World Series. Mitchell had two 200 hit seasons in his career and retired with a .312 lifetime batting average.

In his eleven year career, spanning 1127 games and 4,357 plate appearances, Dale Mitchell struck out 119 times. With a career strikeout rate of once every 33 at bats, Mitchell ranks as the fifteenth toughest hitter to strikeout in baseball history.

After running the count to 2-2, Mitchell took a strike on the outside corner, giving Don Larsen his perfect game and his eternal place in history as the author of one of the greatest games ever pitched.

After striking out Mitchell, Larsen nonchalantly walked off the mound, where catcher Yogi Berra jumped into his arms as he reached the first base line. Larsen asked Berra what the **** he was doing, not knowing he had pitched a perfect game until Berra told him.

Larsen would spend three more seasons in New York, winning two additional World Series games in the process, before heading to the Kansas City Athletics in the deal which brought Roger Maris to New York. In a bit of irony, Larsen, pitching for the San Francisco Giants, would appear against the Yankees in the 1962 World Series, getting into three games in relief and winning game four in Yankee Stadium.

If you only got to see last night’s Fox special, “The Bottom of the 6th…and More!” and did not see the rest of the World Series, you got to see why the Philadelphia Phillies are the World Champions.

And deservedly so.

Good pitching, timely hitting and solid defense are the troika for a championship season. In three and a half innings last night, the Phils displayed it and the Rays did not.

The mini-game started when Phils manager Charlie Manuel sent up lefty Geoff Jenkins to pinch-hit for Cole Hamels, even though Jenkins was hitless since September 28th.

Now, I have to tell you I really like Rays manager Joe Maddon. However, he had trouble managing his bullpen in Game 5 of the ALCS against the Red Sox, and he seemed to have even more trouble last night in Game Phive of the Series.

Warm in the bullpen were lefties J.P. Howell, and David Price. I did not expect to see Price, because the pitcher was the fourth batter up in the top of the 7th, but I did expect to see Howell, figuring that the Rays would either have the lefty-lefty advantage or the Phils would be forced to pinch hit for the pinch hitter.

But Balfour remained in the game, and on a 3-2 pitch he blasted a 93-mph fastball to the gap in right-center for a double. Up stepped Jimmy Rollins who moved Jenkins to third with a bunt.

To the plate stepped Jayson Werth and the question here was walk him and set up the double-play or pitch to him and bring in the infield? Maddon chose the latter and when Werth followed with a flare into shallow center field, second baseman Akinori Iwamura ran and ran, and with his back to the plate a la Willie Mays, he could not make the basket catch – and Jayson Werth did not become Vic Wertz as the ball glanced off his body and fell to the grass and Jenkins scored the go-ahead run. Had the Rays been playing back for a double play, not only would Iwamura have easily caught the ball, it may have even been an infield fly rule out.

At this point, Howell replaced Balfour, and at the end of six it was 3-2 Phillies, who put Ryan Madson on the mound.

With one out, Rocco Baldelli ripped a game-tying home run to left to tie the score off Madson, who in September had an 0.64 earned run average and in the postseason had a 1.50 ERA. Jason Bartlett then singled, and then with the pitcher due up and David Price warming in the bullpen, Maddon strangely left Howell in to hit. While Howell did successfully lay down the first sacrifice bunt of his career, the Rays had eliminated themselves from any hit-and-run or base stealing opportunity and now there were two outs.

Now, I understand all those who correctly point out Derek Jeter’s lack of range as a shortstop, but I love having him in a critical point in a ballgame, not just because of his effort, but because he has envisioned what he will do with the ball under any circumstance that occurs. I now add Phils second sacker Chase Utley to that category.

Iwamura followed with a groundball up the middle off J.C. Romero. From the moment that ball was hit, from his position on the outfield grass, Utley knew what he would be doing with the ball. After he fielded the ball he knew he wasn’t going to necessarily catch the speedy Iwamura and the key to this game was not the batter, but the baserunner on second who also could fly. Utley faked a throw to first and, from the dirt on the shortstop side, fired a one-hop throw to catcher Carlos Ruiz who grabbed the ball down the third-base line and as Bartlett slid inside the line, Ruiz tagged him on a great play at the plate – made even more remarkable by the fact that the ump made the right call.

Had Bartlett scored, it would have been the first lead change of the Series.

So now that Maddon had left in the left-handed Howell to hit, there was no chance he was going to bring in Namor-like righty Chad Bradford to face Pat Burrell, a right-handed hitter, and Burrell broke an 0-for-13 run in the World Series with a double to center. As Burrell left for pinch-runner Eric Bruntlett, Bradford relieved Howell and got a groundout that advanced the runner.

With Bruntlett at third and one out, Maddon elected to pitch to Pedro Feliz, even though Bradford is a ground-ball pitcher and the next hitter, Carlos Ruiz, is a slow runner. Rather than try for a double play, Maddon pulled the infield in again and took his chances with Feliz. “I did think about walking Feliz,” Maddon said. “I just thought he would put the ball on the ground. And Ruiz had been having such a hot series. I thought about all that, but it just didn’t work out.” Feliz hit a ground-ball single up the middle to score what would prove to be the winning run.

In the top of the 8th, Romero allowed a leadoff single to Carl Crawford, but before he had a chance to attempt a steal, the young B.J. Upton grounded into a double play. The Phillies were three outs from the title after Carlos Pena flied to left.

Finally David Price entered the game and he pitched a scoreless inning despite a two-out walk and a stolen base by Utley. “In retrospect, maybe you put him in earlier,” Maddon said. “But if you look at our bullpen, all those guys were well-rested. David has done well, but I didn’t want to put that on him.” Next year at this time when Price has a Rookie of the Year Award awaiting him, that statement will look even more shortsighted.

Mr. Automatic, Brad Lidge came in to close out the Series for the Phils in the 9th. Lidge retired Evan Longoria on a pop fly for the first out. Now with one down, catcher Dioner Navarro shattered his bat on a slider and dropped a single to right. Fernando Perez came in to run for Navarro and Ben Zobrist pinch-hit for Baldelli. Perez quickly and easily stole second.

Lidge got too much of the plate and Zobrist ripped a line drive to right. For one moment Rays fans hearts alit and Phillies fans’ sunk. But, ironically, Zobrist had hit the ball too well and Jayson Werth made the catch for the second out.

That brought pinch-hitter Eric Hinske to the plate. Foul ball, check-swing strike, and then, let the record show that at 9:58 p.m. last night at Citizens Bank Park there was an Eric Hinske swing and a miss at a Brad Lidge slider that enabled the Phillies’ to celebrate their first World Series championship in 28 years and second in 126 years.

Congratulations Phillies fans everywhere.

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com (www.Billy-Ball.com) and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide.

On Tuesday, Bud Selig went home to Milwaukee.

On “House” Tuesday, House and Cuddy locked lips at Cuddy’s house, and then House went home.

It was as exciting as the action on Fox the night before, but not as sloppy.

GIVE IT UP FOR JEFF ZIEGLER

If the Rays pull off Game 5 and if the Rays manage to win Games 6 and 7 and win the World Championship, I believe there needs to be special mention of Jeff Ziegler in the Hall of Fame.

Ziegler is the Rays traveling secretary who, while the rain and the cold were coming down in Philly during Game 5, called 21 hotels before finally finding one that could meet his need for 100 rooms. We can presume that Bud Selig had neglected to tell the Rays to make contingency plans after they check out of their hotel in Philadelphia Monday morning.

The Rays found a home in Wilmington, Delaware, about 45 minutes from the ballpark, at the Hotel du Pont. The du Pont, which opened January 15, 1913, lists among its guests: Charles Lindbergh; Amelia Earhart; Ingrid Bergman; Prince Rainier of Monaco; Joe DiMaggio; John F. Kennedy; Jacques Cousteau; Eleanor Roosevelt; Elizabeth Taylor; Katherine Hepburn; Duke Ellington; King Carl XVI Gustaf and Prince Bertil of Sweden; Norman Rockwell; Henry Kissinger; Kathleen Turner; Bob Hope; Lucille Ball; and many more. Recently, former President George Bush, Barry Manilow, Reese Witherspoon, Ryan Phillipe, Warren Buffet, Joe Gibbs, Jeff Gordon, and Whoopi Goldberg.

“This place in awesome,” pitcher J.P. Howell said, perhaps looking for an endorsement deal. “Our season could be over and we’d be back in Tampa right now. But we’re still playing and here we are in Delaware. It’s unusual, but it’s kind of cool.”

Wilmington is the home of a Carolina League team Wilmington Blue Rocks, the Class AAdvanced affiliate of the Kansas City Royals.

Ziegler made numerous calls and got a broad range of responses. One woman who answered the phone at another Wilmington hotel thought he was joking, “She came back to the phone and said the only place you’re going to find that many rooms is the du Pont,” Ziegler said. “She said it’s a great hotel, you’re really going to like it. A little pricey, but it’s really a nice place.”

Even the people at the du Pont initially weren’t sure Ziegler was who he said he was.

“I called and the girl who answered the phone said: ‘I think I’ve got a prank call,’” he said. “I could hear her say it, and I said, ‘I’m dead serious. If you’ll turn the TV on you’ll see what I mean.’”

Some players spent the day sitting in their rooms resting, watching TV or visiting with family and friends. Others went shopping at the mall and set out looking for places to eat lunch and dinner.

Bench coach Dave Martinez went off to get dry clothes for his children because they got soaked in the steady rain Monday night.

Joe Maddon planned to rent a car and drive back to Philadelphia to see his kids, who were staying at his niece’s house. Maddon said the du Pont is one of the nicest hotels the team has stayed in all year. “If you’re going to have to have a postponement, you might as well stay here,” the manager said during a conference call. Maddon credited Ziegler with keeping everything organized “in spite of all the chaos in front of us.”

“They did a tremendous job of pulling it off,” Maddon said. “Everybody was milling around the hotel lobby, which is a magnificent lobby, waiting patiently for their keys. The bags were already here. They did a great job of getting the bags off the plane and they were here when we arrived.”

“It’s the perfect weather to sit down with some nice hot chocolate and some coffee, spend cozy time with your family,” slugger Carlos Pena said. “This is actually something we’re going to use to our advantage and really try to refuel.”

Ziegler, who frantically started his search in the 5th inning for hotel rooms, said the Rays wound up needing about 85 rooms, which was good because the du Pont had 90 available. He initially asked for 100 because he didn’t have time to sit down and figure out exactly how many he’d need for the Rays’ travel party of 170.

“I knew it was not going to end well, so I started looking at what my options might be, knowing downtown Philadelphia probably wasn’t going to be one of them,” Ziegler said.

“I went through the motions just to make sure, then I started looking in a bigger radius outside the city, and eventually went to 50 miles outside the city.”

Yesterday morning, Maddon went down to the lobby for coffee and ran into plenty of familiar faces.

“There were a bunch of Rays folks down there having a good time. Families together and a bunch of kids still with us. I don’t know, it was one of those moments when the organization comes together,” he said.

Let’s hear it for Jeff Ziegler, man deserving of being in the Traveling Secretaries Hall of Fame.

BTW: In case you were curious, a classic king at the du Pont goes for $164 a night; a luxury king, $194 a night and a one bedroom suite, $899.00 a night.

OMT: The lavish lobby of the du Pont filters in pumpkin pie scent.

BUTT SCRATCHERS? BUTT SCRATCHERS?

There seems to be little market for butt scratchers in Philly tonight, but how about ticket stubs?

Buyers and sellers began flocking to Web sites looking to buy or sell Game 5 ticket stubs for anywhere between $200 and $7,500.

On StubHub.com, 50 tickets were available for resale Tuesday afternoon, said corporate communications manager Joellen Ferrer. Prices ranged from $599 to $3,500 on the Web site, which resells tickets through an agreement with Major League Baseball.

Ed Pettola on Craigslist said he just couldn’t get away with leaving work early again. He originally tried selling his stub for $700. When he reduced it to $600, he was flooded with calls.

WEATHER OR NOT WE PLAY

Tonight’s weather forecast for Philadelphia calls for it to be partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. West winds 10 to 15 mph…diminishing to around 5 mph after midnight.

Keep track of the conditions yourself with a choice of weather of weather sites:

http://www.weatherforyou.com/weather/Pennsylvania/Philadelphia.html

http://www.wunderground.com/US/PA/Philadelphia.html

http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/19019?begHour=19&begDay=303

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/Weather.aspx?location=USPA1276

http://weather.weatherbug.com/PA/Philadelphia-weather.html?nav_section=1&zcode=z6286 WeatherBug is the official weather service of MLB

PROBABLE PITCHERS

One thing that you can count on is that Cole Hamels will not be pitching for the Phils when the Game 5 resumes. You can be assured that Charlie Manuel will pinch-hit for him as he is scheduled to be the leadoff batter in the bottom of the 6th. By the way, that also means that Hamels still has the opportunity to be the winning pitcher in this game if the Phillies score in the 6th and maintain their lead.

The other sure thing is that at 8:00, Barack Obama will be pitching on Fox. I’m still hoping that at end after all “the god blesses,” he says, “Play Ball!”

DID YOU KNOW?

When Game 5 resumes, the Phillies will have first-ups and last licks.

READING MATERIAL

If you’re looking for great baseball columns to read today, check out:

Dan Bickley from the Arizona Republic: http://tinyurl.com/68mj5y

Jayson Stark on ESPN http://tinyurl.com/5t68ve

Bob Ford in the Philadelphia Inquirer: http://tinyurl.com/63zbl2

And if you want to listen:

Two of Tampa best writers, Martin Fennelly and beat writer Marc Lancaster, muse on The Martin Chronicles - http://tinyurl.com/6hjpsu

Tonight I’ll be on in Appleton, WI with The Home Stretch with Justin Hull at 6:05 Eastern and you can listen on - http://www.am1570thescore.com/

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com (www.Billy-Ball.com) and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide.

This has been the World Series of bad hitting.

This has also been the World Series of bad fielding.

This has been the World Series of bad umpiring.

This has been the World Series of bad weather.

This has been Bud’s Bad World Series

The fifth game of what will be known as the “Bad” World Series was suspended in the middle of the 6th inning at Citizens Bank Park Monday night, with the Philadelphia Phillies and Tampa Bay Rays tied 2-2. The game was suspended at 11:10 p.m. EDT, after a 30-minute delay, making it the first World Series game to start and not last at least nine innings.

It was raining, it was pouring, and Bud Selig was … well, I don’t know what the hell he was doing as the rain fell harder and harder. I understand he was checking his weather forecasts that expected one-tenth of an inch of rain.

“We were told at about 7:45 (p.m.) that there would only be about 1/10th inch of rain between then and midnight or after,” Selig said. “So everybody in the room (club officials, umpires, Fox executives) wanted to play. Even though this often isn’t a democracy, I asked everyone what they wanted and everyone said, “Let’s play.’

“Obviously I made (the decision) with some significant trepidation, but had the forecast held, we would have been OK.”

Who cares what the forecast said? It was 42 degrees and lightly raining BEFORE the game started.

Had Bud looked out on the field he would have seen more than a tenth of an inch of water had puddled around each of the bases. He would have seen enough sprinkled Diamond Dust to have made an engagement ring large enough to satisfy Paris Hilton. He would have seen tongue depressors being used like shovels to clean the mud-filled cleats of the pitchers. He would have seen water dripping from bills of the batting helmets as batters approached the plate awaiting 90 mph wet fastballs. He would have seen batters trying to dry their bats in between pitches and trying to get enough pine tar to enable them to hold on to their bats.

Bud would have seen that had he taken a look, because everyone else could see it. But Nero kept fiddling, as Philadelphia kept getting wetter and wetter and the quality of the game kept getting worse. I can accept the fact that Bud was reliant on three weather forecasters, but I simply cannot accept the denial of what apparent to all – last night’s game never should have gotten to the point where the game was official. The game never should have started.

What should be embarrassing to the Commissioner’s Office is that Fox showed the radar on its telecast and the green mass that was shown was not the grass on the field, but an enormous front of rain. Bud, you can’t have it both ways. If you weren’t looking at the field and you were ignoring what was apparent to anyone who watches the Weather Channel as much as you claim you do, what were you doing? Perhaps calling your friends at Fox and asking them what to do?

Bill Conlin of the Philadelphia Daily News quotes Phillies fan and climatologist extraordinary Joe Bastardi who fired off an angry 6:30 p.m. update to his blog on AccuWeather’s professional site under the headline: “Cancel the Game Tonight.”

Bastardi’s wrote: “Cancel the game tonight, and even tomorrow, and then play this when it’s warmer, less windy and there is not precip in the air. It’s the World Series, for goodness sakes . . . ”

Now to Bud’s credit, he did say that under no circumstances would the Phillies have won the game, the Series, and the championship before the completion of nine innings. “I would not have allowed a World Series to end this way,” Selig said. The only trouble with that is that Bud didn’t share this point until after the game was suspended. Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon and several of the Rays said that they were unsure of what would have happened had Carlos Pena not tied the game in the top of the 6th.

“I truly think that would have been the worst World Series win in the face of baseball,” said Phillies starter Cole Hamels, who threw just 75 pitches over six innings and is now done for the remainder of this game unless it is delayed another four days. “I would not pride myself on being a world champion with a called game.”

“It’s my judgment. I have to use my judgment,” Selig said. “It’s not a way to end the World Series. I have enough authority, frankly, that I’m not only on solid ground, I’m on very solid ground.” Well, at least muddy ground, Bud.

“The infield wasn’t that bad, it was just the visibility,” Rays shortstop Jason Bartlett said. “A lot of guys couldn’t believe we were still playing. That’s how bad it was. A lot of guys said if we didn’t tie, we would have lost, which is amazing, considering this is the World Series.”

Where was Selig before Pena got him off the hook? Where was he in the 4th inning as the rain started falling heavier and it became clear there would be much more than expected? Where was he in the 5th, when any player could have been injured as the conditions worsened? Where was he at the start of the 6th delayed for 30 minutes as the ground crew attempted to salvage a field that had already become unplayable? Where was he?

He was determined to play nine innings, just like every World Series game before this one had done. He was determined to ignore the obvious, “The conditions around the plate were real bad,” Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz said. “It was real bad for the hitter, real bad for me, and for everybody. It was hard to feel the ball in your hand. When I tried to throw it back, I knew it was bad for [Phils pitcher Cole Hamels], too.”

So what happens next?

There is no chance Game 5 will be continued in St. Petersburg (or Milwaukee, Bud’s favorite alternate site), “We’ll stay here if we have to celebrate Thanksgiving here,” Selig said (or a hundred years, Bud?). Fortunately, the Rays found someplace to stay last night, as they had checked out of their downtown Philadelphia hotel yesterday afternoon.

Selig added that the game would start at night because “the fans bought tickets for a night game, and it will be the same starting time, whether it’s Tuesday night, Wednesday night, Thursday night or whenever.”

The game will resume with Cole Hamels scheduled to hit for the Phillies against Rays reliever Grant Balfour. The game hopefully will resume Wednesday night at 8:37 in the bottom of the 6th inning, which at least gives two-thirds of this country a fighting chance to see an ending of a World Series before they have to go to sleep.

And what about the fans? I listened to Selig and I simply did not hear him talk about the well being of the Phillies fans in attendance – the same fans who waited 90 minutes in the rain Saturday night. Yes, I’m aware of those few who threw opened mustard packets at anyone wearing Rays gear, but they are the exceptions. Philadelphia fans deserved to not be pummeled by weather conditions like they went through last night. Most of them are smart enough to get out of the rain.

And what of the fans at home? Who is left to think of them? Who has the guts to stand up to Selig and say “for the good of the game” don’t play games under these conditions? Would it have been worse to postpone the game or start the game? Why must we watch a game like this and carry this memory throughout the off-season and beyond. You might recall, Game 6 of the 1975 World Series, one of the greatest games in baseball history, won on Red Sox catcher Carlton Fisk famous homer against the Cincinnati Reds, was played after three days of rainouts at Fenway Park.

This was an ugly black eye for baseball. Bud, you may claim you are on firm ground, you may blame the meteorologists, but this mess is your fault.

Here’s mud in your eye.

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com (www.Billy-Ball.com) and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide.

CHANCES ARE…

For those of you who remember the sappy “Mad Men” era singer, Johnny Mathis, you might remember he sang an equally sappy song, “Chances Are.” The song begins with lyrics that reflect the mood of the fans of the Phillies today:

• “Chances are ’cause I wear a silly grin
• The moment you come into view,
• Chances are you think that I’m in love with you.”

Chances are really good that after last night’s demolition of the Rays, 10-2, the Phils and their fans are feeling, as Larry David might say, “Pretty, pretty good.”

Even though it is Halloween season the Rays and their fans did not expect their chariot to turn into a pumpkin at this point in the season. There is not an aspect of the Rays game that is looking good right now. Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena are hitless, their fielding is sloppy and their pitching is shaky.

Akinori Iwamura made only seven errors for the Rays during 2007 and again in 2008. Last night he made two. Third baseman Evan Longoria (Longoria has a team-high four errors in the postseason), first baseman Carlos Pena and catcher Dioner Navarro each have an error. Andy Sonnanstine made an error of omission but that seems to be the state of mind of many of the Rays whose heads seem to be elsewhere. They are clearly not anticipating what to do with the ball when it comes to them.

Chances are, few would have anticipated the shaky fielding, but even fewer than the few could have anticipated Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria hitting .000. They’re 0-for-29 with 15 strikeouts. Combined, they’re 1 for their last 45 in the postseason (.022).

Chances are, the Rays figured they would have to win one game at Citizen’s Bank Bandbox. But it should be noted that the Phillies are unbeaten at home this postseason.

Chances are, the Rays figured they would have to defeat Cole Hamels at least once, but nobody has pitched better this postseason than Hamels, who is 4-0.

Chances are, they never anticipated that they would have to do both in Game 5 to stay alive.

Right now chances seem awfully long for the Rays, but for the Phils and their fans, as Mathis sang in the final lyrics of his song, “The chances are your chances are . . . awfully good.”

REMEMBERING TUG

Tim McGraw threw out the ceremonial first pitch Saturday night and sprinkled some of his father’s ashes on the mound. Tim also re-enacted Tug McGraw’s trademark slap of his baseball glove across his thigh when he got a batter out.

Tug was the Phillies’ closer and struck out Kansas City’s Willie Wilson for the final out in 1980.

Robin Roberts threw out the ceremonial first pitch before Game 4, and fellow Hall of Famer and ex-Phillies pitching great Jim Bunning will do it before Game 5.

DID YOU KNOW?

Forty-two times in the World Series a team has fallen behind 3-1. Only six teams have come back.

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com (www.Billy-Ball.com) and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide.

Pitchers who have homered in the World Series

1. Jim Bagby, Indians, Game 5, 1920 – Bagby was the winning pitcher. Bagby had two regular season homers in his career. His son was also a pitcher and had three regular season homers.

2. Rosy Ryan, Giants, Game 3, 1924 – Ryan was a relief pitcher, ND. Rosy had one regular season homer in 1925. Under current rules Ryan would have picked up the win because starting and winning pitcher Hugh McQuillan pitched only 3.2 innings.

3. Jack Bentley, Giants, Game 5, 1924 – Bentley was the winning pitcher. In seven seasons, Bentley hit seven homers and had 71 RBI to go along with his career .291 average.

4. Jess Haines, Cardinals, Game 3, 1926 – Haines was the winning pitcher. Haines had 3 homers and 79 RBI in 19 big league seasons.

5. Bucky Walters, Reds, Game 6, 1940 – Walters was the winning pitcher. Walters slugged 23 career homers, drove home 234, and had a career batting average of .243. Walters pitched 428 games and played primarily third base for 206 position player games.

6. Lew Burdette, Braves, Game 2, 1958 – Burdette was the winning pitcher. Burdette hit 12 homers in his career and drove home 75.

7. Mudcat Grant, Twins, Game 6, 1965 – Grant was the winning pitcher. Jim Grant had 6 homers and 65 career RBI.

8. Jose Santiago, Red Sox, Game 1, 1967 – Santiago was the losing pitcher. Santiago’s Series homer was against Bob Gibson, and his only regular season homer was against Mickey Lolich. Both Gibson and Lolich hit World Series homers.

9. Bob Gibson, Cardinals, Game 7, 1967 – Gibson was the winning pitcher. Hoot hit 24 career homers and had 144 RBI.

10. Mickey Lolich, Tigers, Game 2, 1968 – Lolich was the winning pitcher. This was the only homer of Lolich’s career. Lolich was a career .110 hitter.

11. Bob Gibson, Cardinals, Game 4, 1968 – Gibson was the winning pitcher. Gibby hit two grand slams and one inside-the-park homer.

12. Dave McNally, Orioles, Game 5, 1969 – McNally was the starter, ND. McNally had nine career regular season homers with 43 career RBI.

13. Dave McNally, Orioles, Game 3, 1970 – McNally was the winning pitcher. McNally’s homer was the only World Series grand slam by a pitcher

14. Ken Holtzman, A’s, Game 4, 1974 – Holtzman was the winning pitcher. Holtzman had two homers among his 99 lifetime hits.

15. Joe Blanton, Phils, Game 4, 2008 – Blanton was the winning pitcher. Blanton was 2-for-33 career (regular and postseason) prior to his homer.

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com (www.Billy-Ball.com) and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide.

As the late Levi Stubbs and the Four Tops sang:

• “Somebody shake me, wake me when it’s over
• Somebody tell me that I’m dreamin’
• And wake me when it’s over.”

How many fans were singing that song as they were drifting off during Game 3?

On October 15, 1988, Game 1 of the World Series began at 8:35 Eastern time. The game ended 3:04 later when Kirk Gibson hit one of the great walkoff homers of all-time. That meant viewers of the game only missed the first 10 minutes of Matthew Broderick and the Sugarcubes on Saturday Night Live.

In the 1991 World Series, one of the greatest Game 3’s took place at Atlanta’s Fulton County Stadium. The game ended at 12:34, when the Braves’ Mark Lemke hit a walkoff single – in the bottom of the 12th inning. Game 6 ended at 12:14 on Kirby Puckett’s walkoff homer – in the 11th inning. One of the greatest Game 7’s ended at 12:01 on Gene Larkin’s walkoff hit – in the 10th inning.

On Saturday, October 23, 1993, Game 6 ended on Joe Carter’s walkoff homer as Toronto won the World Series, defeating the Philadelphia Phillies at 11:37 Eastern time. As disappointed as Phillies fans were, at least they got to root for their team, support their team and console each other as they saw the ending of this exciting game.

This is more than most Phillies fans can say about Game 3 of the 2008 World Series. Because of an extended rain delay BEFORE the game began, Jamie Moyer threw the first pitch in anger at 10:06 Saturday night. By the time the thrilling game came to its conclusion on Carlos Ruiz’s scratch walkoff single it was 1:47 a.m.

The wild game concluded 47 minutes after Saturday Night Live, starring “Mad Men’s” Jon Hamm ended, meaning that only mad men like myself were up to watch the conclusion. This all East Coast series could only be watched by the fans on the West Coast who even bothered to switch back to Fox to see if the incessant rain delay would ever end.

This was the latest start in Series history according to Major League Baseball, beating out the 9:24 p.m. first pitch when Philadelphia hosted Toronto for Game 3 in 1993 at Veterans Stadium, following a 72-minute rain delay (that was a one-sided 10-3 victory). That makes this Game 3 start, by far, the biggest World Series disgrace in MLB history.

What was the point of starting this game?

Certainly, not to be supportive of the close to 46,000 fans who huddled in the rain waiting for the game to start.

It certainly wasn’t for the players who had to wait and wait for the game to begin.

And, it undoubtedly was not for the viewing public, particularly kids who have only one non-school night to hope to see the conclusion to a World Series game.

So this late, late start was to nobody’s benefit, unless, unless … was there a Fox in the henhouse?

You think the fact that had Game 3 been postponed, Fox would have been forced to run re-runs of “Cops” could have entered into the decision to play this game? Even a bigger factor could be that Game 5 would have been moved to Tuesday night, the night that Fox airs two ratings magnets, “House” and “Fringe” – and that means those shows that have been pre-advertised would be pre-empted.

The fact is Fox could care less what their numbers were for Game 3. All the advertising for the game was sold; now they just needed to be run. Whether the ads ran at 10 pm or at midnight made no difference to them and the rest of the show is just considered to be filler (I would be referring to the game).

It’s the fact that Bud and his boys at MLB allowed this to happen is the part that is so shortsighted, and ultimately, so sad. Selig refuses to accept that baseball needs to be watched and seen in order to prosper. It’s almost as if he wants a free-market without regulations, and has anybody seen the stock market lately? Baseball can grow its fan base with great postseason games and Game 3 was a great baseball game with a wild, exciting, great ending. Too bad so few fans got to see it.

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com (www.Billy-Ball.com) and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide.

Much has been made over the Rays scoring three of their four runs in Game Two on outs.  Some make the argument that this goes to show that outs aren’t all that bad after all. But let’s look closely.

The Rays scored two runs, each on groundouts, in the first inning. That was after the first two hitters of the inning reached base … two on, nobody out.

In the bottom of the fourth a run scored on a safety squeeze … again after the first two hitters of the innings reached base.

No matter the end play that scored the runs, baserunners were obviously necessary and of vital importance.  I’m not denying the importance of contact outs in the Rays’ win. But the vital part of making the contact outs matter was getting runners on.

If given a choice, you no doubt take guys who can make contact over guys who don’t. But most importantly you have to have guys who get on base because without baserunners those contact outs are harmful.  Better to have a high on-base hitter than a high contact hitter, given a choice.

The question is not “Are contact outs valuable?”  Obviously they can be.  The question is “What is more valuable: A contact out or a baserunner?”  Both can be valuable but a baserunner is of vital importance to offense. A baserunner allows a team a chance to score in a number of ways - contact out, hit, load the bases and a walk scores a run, etc. But with a contact out, the team must have at least one baserunner and fewer than two outs.  And contact outs alone are harmful because the just get the team closer to scorelessness.  

There is a reason that on-base percentage has a very strong correlation with runs scored throughout the history of baseball.  No matter which play actually causes a run to cross the plate, a runner is obviously necessary.  Baserunners don’t guarantee scoring but a team also can’t score without them.

It’s a long-standing tradition that the mayors of the World Series teams place wagers that reflect their communities. The stakes, or the steaks, are usually of food items that reflect the local culture.

This year Mayor Rick Baker, of St. Petersburg, Mayor Frank Hibbard of Clearwater and Mayor Pam Iorio of Tampa placed their bet with Philadelphia’s Mayor Michael Nutter.

There is no question that Mayor Nutter offered the best of Philly: cheesesteaks, Tastykakes, soft pretzels, mac-n-cheese from Delilah’s Southern Café, and oddly, a Rocky statue.

However, these Phila-delights hold up to the Florida contingent as poorly as Ryan Howard against David Price.

The culina-Rays delights from Florida include stone crab claws from Frenchy’s in Clearwater; the ultimate Cubano from the famed Columbia Restaurant in Ybor City; Cuesta-Rey Centro Fino Cortez Cigars from J.C. Newman’s (the finest place to go in Tampa for handrolled Cubans), and real key lime pie from the Fourth Street Shrimp Store, in St. Pete.

Rumors are immediately circulating that Mayor Nutter is now rooting for the Rays.

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com (www.Billy-Ball.com) and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide.

For all the doom and gloomsayers (FOX and various baseball writers), Game One was pretty darn entertaining. At least it was from this pure baseball fan’s point of view, especially compared to the last two World Series which were over and done in four games. Television ratings promise to be down this year, perhaps to an all-time low, but we baseball diehards could care less.

Wednesday night’s contest had all the elements of a great, well played game, except for Ryan Howard not fielding balls at first base, with lots of tension. It had a stellar starting pitching performance (Cole Hamels) and terrific defense (Jimmy Rollins turning the double play with the runner all over him and Pedro Feliz turning a rocket off the bat of B.J. Upton into another double play).

The Rays seemed nervous, similar to Game One of the ALCS, and starter Scott Kazmir seemed even more so as he had trouble with his command and pitch selection early on. But Kazmir really only made one bad pitch – the home run to Chase Utley in the first inning. The fourth-inning hit by Phillie catcher Carlos Ruiz to knock in Shane Victorino was more a bad luck high bouncer. Kazmir made his pitches when he had to, as the Phillies left 11 runners on base. His catcher, Dioner Navarro, steered and talked him through the trouble spots and Tampa kept it close.

Cole Hamels was, of course, in complete command of this game as he has been throughout the playoffs. He had a crackling fastball and took advantage of the over-anxiousness and pressure these young Rays must have been feeling, making only one bad pitch (hanging curve ball on Carl Crawford’s home run). To win the Series, Tampa Bay will have to defeat Hamels at least once. They seemed to have finally figured him out after the Crawford home run as it was rightly pointed by announcer Rick Sutcliffe that Hamels had started many of the previous hitters off with a slow curve – a pattern which Crawford clearly took advantage of in hitting his home run. But Hamels made some adjustments after that and the Rays threatened no more.

Both bullpens, as advertised, were outstanding, and Phillie closer Brad Lidge continued his perfect 2008 save record, giving the Rays little chance to overcome its ninth-inning, one run deficit with a nasty slider.

The talk is that the Phillies, despite the win, are going to need something from cleanup hitter Ryan Howard to continue their winning ways. The talk is also that the Rays were tense and tentative in Game One of their previous series and should be okay for tonight, just as they were okay in the past two series. But Philadelphia last night took the game to Tampa Bay with very aggressive base running and an attitude that they were tired of losing and wanted this series in the worst way. Victorino was criticized for trying to score on a very shallow fly ball to Ray center fielder B.J. Upton, but I felt it set the tone for the Phillies speed to put constant pressure on the defense.

The Rays rely on defense and pitching. Their playoff long balls are not typical. They have to get out of the long ball mentality if they are going to win, and they must find a way to stop the Philadelphia running game. The key to a Phillie victory will be Jimmy Rollins; he sets the table. Oh yeah, and get the ball to Cole Hamels three times.

Here’s something you should know about some of the individuals from each team:

OLD MAN MOYER

Jamie Moyer has been in the majors every year since 1986 except for 1992, which he spent entirely at Toledo. The Tigers never brought him up that season. Moyer has won 212 major league games since 1992. Moyer, 45, has played in the major leagues for 22 seasons with the Cubs, Rangers, Cardinals, Orioles, Red Sox and Mariners before Philadelphia, and this is the first time has advanced past the Championship Series. When the Phillies won the World Series in 1980, Moyer skipped school at nearby Souderton High School to attend the victory parade down Broad Street. Moyer should not be confused with Amy Smart who played “Jaime Moyer, the Tasty Coma Wife” on “Scrubs.”

HE DOESN’T STAND PAT

The Phillies’ GM is 71-year-old Pat Gillick has been GM of four teams, including the Blue Jays, Orioles and Mariners, and all have played in the postseason. He put together the Toronto Blue Jays teams that won World Series titles in 1992 and 1993.

LOOKING FOR A BAILOUT

The Rays’ executive vice president for baseball operations is 31-year-old Andrew Friedman, a former Bear Stearns analyst.

INITIAL THOUGHTS

B.J. Upton is really Melvin Emmanuel Upton. The B.J. is for “Bossman Junior” because his father was always called Bossman. On the other hand, J.P. Howell is really James Phillip Howell and J.A. Happ is James Anthony Happ

OH HAPP DAY

J.A. Happ (who pronounces his name “Jay”) had 151 strikeouts in 135 innings for the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs. He is 6-6 and turned 26 on Sunday.

WHEN I WOKE THIS MORNING, U WERE ON MY MIND

When B.J. Upton went deep twice against the White Sox, he became the first player with a last name starting with the letter U to post a multi-homer game in postseason play. The Phillies hope Chase Utley will be the next. The letters F, I, Q, X and Z have never had a multi-homer game in postseason play.

THREE LETTER MAN

Carl Crawford had scholarship offers to play quarterback at Nebraska and point guard at UCLA. Rays outfielder Gabe Gross played quarterback for Auburn as a freshman

THREE EVERYTHING ELSE MAN

When J.P. Howell pitches he wears three of everything, socks, underwear, T-shirts, because he claims it reminds him of three strikes and three outs.

ONE IS THE LONELIEST NUMBER

Akinori Iwamura wears number one, and in 2007, his first season with Tampa Bay, Iwamura began his workouts on 1/11 at 11:11:11 a.m.

BUT HOW WERE HIS GRADES?

In high school, Scott Kazmir had six no-hitters, including four straight during his junior season.

GOOD STORY

Carlos Pena, who was on the verge of running out of teams to play for, has become a star for Tampa. He is just the third player to have two 100-RBI seasons with Tampa Bay. Aubrey Huff (now with the Orioles), and Fred McGriff are the others. He has 77 homers and 223 RBIs over the past two seasons. His sister, Femaris, danced with the Boston Ballet. Not to be out done, before each game, Carlos Pena does his own dance in the dugout. “It’s the Pena Colada,” Rays manager Joe Maddon said.

JUST KEEP THROWING

Cole Hamels led all Phillies pitchers with 3,433 pitches thrown in the regular season. James Shields led the Rays with 3,135.

THE MEN IN BLUE

Tim Welke, in his 25th season of umping, is the crew chief for this World Series. He will be behind home plate in Game 1. Working with him for their third Series together will be Jeff Kellogg, in his 16th season of umpiring. Interestingly enough, they are both from Coldwater, Michigan. Kerwin Danley, Tom Hallion and Fieldin Culbreth will all be working their first Series.

DESPERATE ROOKIE

Evan Longoria has never met actress Eva Longoria, though she recently sent him a bottle of champagne.

THAT’S JUST DUCKY

Jayson Werth’s uncle and grandfather, both named Dick Schofield, and his stepdad, Dennis Worth, all played major league baseball. BTW: Both Schofield’s nicknames were “Ducky.”

DO YOU CALL HIM “DAD” OR “COACH?”

Jamie Moyer’s wife, Karen, is the daughter of former Notre Dame men’s basketball coach Digger Phelps.

PING-PONG WIZARD

Andy Sonnanstine had a 13-9 record with a 4.38 ERA in 32 starts during the season. Sonnanstine went 0-3 over his last seven starts of the regular season. He is a double-jointed whiz at ping-pong. Check him out on YouTube.

LIGHTS OUT

Brad Lidge, who is deserving of both Cy Young and MVP votes, was perfect in his first season in Philadelphia, helping the Phillies go 79-0 when leading after eight innings. He had a 1.10 ERA in save situations and a 0.61 ERA in his last 15 appearances. He is now 6-for-6 in post-season save chances. Lidge was chosen the Phillies’ most valuable player by the local chapter of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.

FUTURE STAR

David Price joined St. Louis’ Adam Wainwright (2006 World Series) and Cincinnati’s Rawly Eastwick (1975 NLCS and ‘75 World Series) as the only rookies to earn a win and a save in the same playoff series.

THAT’S AWESOME BABY

Over-the-top basketball analyst Dick Vitale is an over-the-top Rays fan. Vitale lives in Tampa and has been a long-time Rays season-ticket holder. That could be reason enough to root for the Phils.

TOO SLOPPY

In the ALCS, the Rays committed six errors in the last four games, including three for third baseman Evan Longoria and two for shortstop Jason Bartlett.

IT’S A SET-UP

Brad Lidge’s setup men, J. C. Romero and Ryan Madson, have a combined earned run average of 0.77 this month.

TWO-FACE

Rays reliever Trever Miller is the lone Series player who’s spent time on both teams

HE COMES FROM A LAND DOWN UNDER

The Rays reliever Australian Grant Balfour spent the first two months of the season at Triple-A Durham, where he was 1-0 with a 0.38 ERA in 15 appearances. He rejoined the Rays on May 30 and went 6-2 with a 1.54 ERA in 51 games. He struck out 82 in 58 1-3 innings, leading all major league relievers in strikeouts per nine innings (12.65). The Rays acquired him in a trade with Milwaukee in 2007 for pitcher Seth McClung. Balfour was born in New South Wales, Australia, current home of comedian Peter Meisel.

HE COMES FROM THE YANKEES

Dioner Navarro was one of the Yankees traded for Randy Johnson.

NOT AS TOUGH AS NAILS

Pat Burrell became the second Phillies player to produce a multi-homer game in the post-season. Lenny Dykstra accomplished the feat on Oct. 20, 1993, in the World Series against Toronto.

MANAGING JUST FINE, THANK YOU

Charlie Manuel has managed a total of 1058 games with a record of 574-484 .543. Joe Maddon has managed a total of 537 games with a record of 251-286 .467.

Manuel made it to the ALCS with the Twins in 1969 and 1970. Chuck (as he was known as a player) came up twice, walking once and whiffing once. Joe Maddon never played in the Bigs.

HE’S BEEN A FORCE AT THE PLATE

Bret Myers hit .059 (4-for-58) this season with four walks and is a career .116 hitter. But, he’s 6-for-12 with four RBI and four runs scored in his last six starts.

HE’S BEEN A FORCE BEHIND THE PLATE

Catcher Carlos Ruiz is a Phils good luck charm. The Phils were 13-2 in his final 15 starts of the season.

ONLY SO SO

So Taguchi led the majors with a .407 pinch-hit average in 2007, but hit only .091 as a pinch-hitter this season.

HIDDEN BALL TRICK

When Rays second baseman Akinori Iwamura fielded the final out of Game 7 of the ALCS, he put the baseball in his back pocket before joining in the celebration. Iwamura then gave it to Rays’ vice president Rick Vaughn, who presented it to Joe Jesiolkiewicz, an authenticator for Major League Baseball. Jesiolkiewicz placed an official sticker on the ball and it was given to equipment manager Chris Westmoreland. “I’m sure the team will decide what happens to that ball,” Jesiolkiewicz said.

YOU DON’T LOOK THAT FAMILIAR

The Phils’ Joe Blanton and Jamie Moyer both have American League backgrounds and, have faced most of the Rays before. Tampa Bay’s four starters have seen pinch-hitter Matt Stairs (42 at-bats), but the top six hitters in Philadelphia’s batting order have 18 combined at-bats against them.

GET SMART

The Rays’ rookie outfielder Fernando Perez graduated from Columbia with a degree in American Studies and creative writing. Perez, who is of Cuban descent, is the first-ever Latino Ivy Leaguer to make it to the big leagues, called up Aug. 31. He has a great brain and great legs; he can fly.

UNSUNG HEROES

The Phillies coaching staff:

• Milt Thompson, hitting coach
• Rich Dubee, pitching coach
• Ramon Henderson, bullpen coach
• Davey Lopes, first base coach
• Jimy Williams, bench coach
• Mick Billmeyer, catching instructor
• Steve Smith, third base coach

FREEDOM IS JUST ANOTHER WORD FOR CASHING IN

Pat Burrell is the Phillies post-World Series free agent concern. In addition, Jamie Moyer, Scott Eyre and Rudy Seañez all could hit the road. For the Rays, Rocco Baldelli and Eric Hinske are free-agents-to-be. Cliff Floyd and Trever Miller have club options.

HE’S NO ALAN LADD

The Flyin’ Hawaiian, Shane Victorino, led the Phils with a .293 average this season, setting career highs in every category except stolen bases. He had 14 homers, 58 RBIs, 102 runs and 36 steals, one fewer than 2007. In the post-season, Victorino is batting .281 (9-for-32) with two homers and 11 RBIs. No Phil in team history drove in more runs in a postseason. He attended St. Anthony High in Wailuku, Hawaii.

DOWN TO THREE WASHINGTONIANS

The teams never to make the World Series are the Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals, the Washington Senators/Texas Rangers, and Seattle, Washington Mariners.

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com (www.Billy-Ball.com) and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide.

Scott Kazmir and the Rays scored a victory over Brad Lidge and the Phillies before the first pitch was even thrown in the World Series. Of course I’m referring to the AL marathon win in the All Star Game this July … a game won by Kazmir and lost by Lidge.

With home field advantage determined by the All Star Game, the Series opened tonight in the tradition filled Tropicana Field.

Now some people abhor the fact that something as important as home field in the World Series be determined by an exhibition game.

And there is something to be said about the importance of game 7’s in the Series. Since the Pirates won 1979’s game 7 on the road in Baltimore, the home team has won the last eight do or die game 7s.

But here’s a thought: It’s an improvement over the old system. Do you remember how it used to be determined? Probably not?

The home field alternated each year, beginning in 1924. That year the Washington Senators needed all the games and then some as they beat the New York Giants in the bottom of the 12th of game 7. Think the Giants could have used the home field that game?

The next year the NL had the home field. The year after that the AL did. And so on and so forth from 1924 until 2003 in the aftermath of the tied All Star Game fiasco of 2002.

So that means no matter how great your team was in those 79 years, their home field was determined by the fact that the 1924 series opened in Washington.

The 110 win 1927 Yankees are considered by many to be the greatest team in baseball history. They opened their World Series on the road to the 94 win Pirates.

The 1954 Indians won 111 games, but opened the World Series in New York against the 97 win Giants. The Giants won the first game on a walk off Dusty Rhodes homer leading to a sweep. How would that series have fared differently if it opened in Cleveland?

The best NL team of the 1960s was the 1967 Cardinals.

The best AL team of the 1970s was the 1970 Orioles.

The best NL team of the 1970s was the 1975 Cincinnati Reds.

The best AL team of the 1980s was the 1984 Detroit Tigers.

The 94 win Dodgers hosted the 1988 World Series opener over the 104 win Oakland A’s, allowing for Kirk Gibson’s homer to be a game ender.

And the alternating home field extended to the league championship series as well.

The 1987 Twins won 85 games, one of the lowest win totals in post season history since the schedule was expanded to 162 games. And yet they had home field advantage in both the ALCS over the Tigers (whose 98 wins were the tops in the bigs that year) and the NL Champion Cardinals in the World Series.

Seeing the Twins went 6-0 at home and 2-4 on the road that post season, it’s safe to say their unique home field advantage lent a lot to their World Series title, which was the franchise’s first since 1924 when they were the Senators and when this whole alternating started up.

So maybe having the All Star Game determine home field isn’t the best plan, but it is a better alternative to linking it to events during the Calvin Coolidge administration.

Paul Sullivan is an Emmy Nominated TV producer whose credits include The Daily Show with Jon Stewart. He has appeared on the HBO Specials Curse of the Bambino and Reverse the Curse of the Bambino and writes the blog www.sullybaseball.com.

I’ve been predicting the Rays throughout the season. I’m not gonna get off the bandwagon now.

The same reasons they won all season will be the same reason they win now. Great pitching, super speed both on the bases and in defense. Tampa ran all over the Red Sox, stealing 10 bases to Boston’s two. I think that trend should continue. Tampa had a preposterous .508 slugging percentage (to Boston’s 418, and incidentally Philly’s .402).

But the main reason I’m picking the Rays is the starting pitching. Frankly, once you get past Cole Hamels, the Phils don’t have enough. Blanton got rocked against the Rays in his career, giving up 57 hits in 41 innings for a plus 6 ERA. Jamie Moyer got shelled in the postseason – no surprise there as junkballers usually do come postseason. Brett Myers, he of the 4.55 ERA this season, gave up five runs in five innings in his only start against the Dodgers. Also, Myers hates domes and pitches terribly in them for his career – keep an eye out for this in game 2.

On the other hand, Tamp has a sterling starting four, where their ace lefty, Scott Kazmir, pitched the “worst” of the 4. Kazmir has a 4.35 ERA in the series against Boston, and gave up eight hits in 10.3 innings with nine SO. All together, Tampa held Boston’s lineup—which had batted .280 for the season—to a .234 BA in those seven games. Their starting had an ERA of just under 3.1.

And yes, the Phillies have a awesome bullpen. But that won’t be enough. If Hamels can give the Phillies game 1, then the Phillies will be in the Series for the long haul. However, if the Rays take game 1, this Series might be shorter rather than longer.

Prediction: Rays in 6

It’s early … talk to me in August … let’s see them survive September… they have no post-season experience. All of these statements have been used to describe the Tampa Bay Rays in 2008. I was one of the few that didn’t have outrage over the Elliot Johnson/Francisco Cervelli collusion in spring training. The Rays were learning to win and establishing a new culture. I kept telling colleagues that this team had the pitching to compete. Most of all, I liked the combination of young players and veterans. The Rays from day one have been hungry, and now, they will finally be full with the 2008 World Series trophy.

They are facing a formidable opponent. Unlike most of the mainstream media, I believe that the National League actually plays professional baseball. The Phillies have a powerful offense, grit, and a capable bullpen. Even their one question mark – starting pitching – has gotten hot at the right time. Why will the Phils lose? Here are my five reasons:

Rays are a team of destiny: I know everyone is sick of the comparisons to the 1969 Mets, but the similarities are there. You have young pitchers coming together all at the same time. You have an offense that isn’t great, but knows how to get the timely hit. Most important, you have some key veterans contributing at the end of their career. From Scott Kazmir to Cliff Floyd the Rays have “it”.

Home Field: Tampa is the best home team in baseball. We normally don’t make a big deal about this but, after watching Game 7, you might want to change your mind. The crowd on Sunday was as loud as any I have heard in my life. David Price probably had a couple of MPH extra thanks to the adrenaline rush. The Phillies tend to play better on the road, but I am not sure they will face as raucous a crowd as this. Think Minnesota against St. Louis circa 1987.

Starting Pitching: Matt Garza, Scott Kazmir, Andy Sonnanstine, and James Shields are better than Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer, Joe Blanton, and Brett Myers. You would like a little more left-handed pitching against the Phils, but that point can be addressed in reason number four.

David Price: Could he be the 2008 version of K-Rod in the playoffs? He earned his stripes by shutting down the World Series champions in Game 7. He is lefty, throws hard and appears fearless. This spells doom in the late innings for the “Big Three” who don’t hit lefties particularly well.

Citizen’s Bank Park: The “worst ballpark in the majors” will finally hurt the home team. The Phillies historically play tight at home and the World Series shouldn’t be any different. I could see the Rays having fun in this “hitter haven”. The notoriously nasty Philadelphia crowd should make for a similar type of home field disadvantage seen last in Chicago earlier this month. Look for Brad Lidge to come back down to earth and blow a save as well. That would truly be icing on the cake and make it a “Philadelphia Ending”. Maybe the home team will talk to their architect after the season and finally adjust the ballpark dimensions for professional baseball.

The Phillies are flying high and have some “mojo”". The Rays have destiny and talent on their side. I predict the series will go six with the Rays winning 4-2.

The baseball playoffs started with talk of the breaking of a streak that had reached 100 – the number of years since the Cubs had won the World Series. It will end with the breaking of a different streak of 100. It’s been 28 years since the Phillies have won a World Championship, but over the last 25 years there have been 100 championships awarded in the four major sports and teams from Philadelphia have won exactly … carry the one, divide by two, times five percent, yeah, that’s right … ZERO. That streak is about to end, and here’s why.

Chase Utley and Ryan Howard will see right-handers in five of the seven games in the series. Utley struggled in the Division Series against the Brewers but came alive against the Dodgers, hitting .353 with a home run. Howard also got off to a slow start in the playoffs but had six hits in the NLCS, albeit without a homer. The slugger has yet to go deep in nine postseason games this year which makes him a ticking time bomb since he had only one streak all year of longer than nine games without a home run. That’s another streak that’s about to end.

Cole Hamels is better than Scott Kazmir. These two will square off in Game One and, most likely, again in Game Five. Kazmir pitched well in his second start against the Red Sox, a game in which the Rays inexplicably coughed up a seven run lead, but until then his performance had fallen from “ace” level over the second half of the season. Hamels, on the other hand, seems to have found his groove late in the year. He posted a 2.37 ERA in his last nine starts of the regular season and he’s been outstanding in the playoffs. In three starts he’s allowed less than a baserunner per inning and given up only three earned runs. The Phillies are heavy favorites to win both of these match-ups, which gives them a huge head start to the four victories they need.

Matt Stairs. Yes, that’s right; Matt Stairs is going to cement his place in Phillies’ lore by providing something that National League teams don’t ordinarily have, which is a legitimate Designated Hitter. Not some part-time utility player who’s spent the entire year on the bench providing a handful of at bats a week as the front end of a double switch, but a real life professional hitter with actual experience at the position. Don’t get me wrong, Stairs isn’t the second coming of Ted Williams, but he’s much better than the players the National League teams normally pencil in at DH come World Series time, and as he proved in the NLCS he still has plenty of pop left in his bat.

So there you go. Three reasons why the City of Brotherly Love will be celebrating its first world championship in a quarter century. One word of caution to Phillies fans: Since your last celebration there have been many technological advances including the ubiquitous cell phone camera. Keep that in mind when the rioting and looting begins.

You shouldn’t need reasons to watch the World Series. Forty years ago, no one needed a reason to watch. They needed a way. A way to sneak a transistor radio into school and listen because games were during the day. A quicker way home after work to catch the last few innings.

Now we find ourselves having to convince people to watch. Because of the unknown that are the Rays and Phillies, many casual fans will not tune in to the World Series. Because of the bitter taste it leaves not having your team playing in October, many fans of the game’s most popular teams will not be watching.

But I implore you to watch. Stay up late and watch. Let your kids stay up late and watch. Cancel your dinner reservations this weekend, order Chinese food and watch. Skip the bar, grab a case of beer, invite over your buddies and watch.

Because this is going to be an exciting series. Either team could sweep or it could go seven games. We could see shootouts or pitching duels. A no-hitter, a perfect game, a brawl … nothing is out of the realm of possibility.

But just in case you still need convincing, here are five more reasons to watch:

5 – There’s Only One October

No, I don’t work for TBS, nor am I that kid from The Rookie who somehow ended up with a gig on those commercials writing a blog about the playoffs. And yes, I’m just as sick of hearing that slogan as you are. But it’s actually a good slogan, had it not been shoved down our throats 94 times a game (just like the Frank TV ads are funny the first couple hundred times you watch them).

But TBS is actually right. There is only one October. There’s only one World Series, and if you’re a baseball fan, you don’t want to miss a World Series game, no matter who is playing, no matter how late they are on. Remember when it didn’t matter if the Yankees or Red Sox were playing in the World Series and you just watched anyway? Do you remember how great the 2002 Series was with the Giants and Angels? How about the 1997 Classic with the Marlins and Indians? Aren’t you glad you watched those?

4 – You Want Star Power, You’ve Got It

This series features two MVP’s, a Rookie of the Year (and another soon to be) and five All-Stars. Ryan Howard led the National League in home runs and RBI’s. Chase Utley is the best second baseman in the game. B.J. Upton is on his way to being the best all-around player in the game. Cole Hamels will win a Cy Young Award one day. Evan Longoria is already clearing mantle-space for a couple of MVP awards in his career.

You like catchy nicknames? You’ve got the Flyin’ Hawaiian (Shane Victorino) and Big-Game James (James Shields). You want great story lines? How about Jamie Moyer still going strong (slated to start game 3) at age 45? How about Rocco Baldelli battling back from injuries and a strange illness to play a key role? How about Brad Lidge bouncing back from a lack of confidence to become the best in the National League?

If you’re looking for stars and storylines, look no further than St. Pete and Philadelphia.

3 – Two Evenly Matched Teams

Ask 10 baseball analysts for their prediction on the World Series, and you’ll get 10 different answers and 10 different reasons why. And they’d all be right. This series could go in any direction, and its unpredictability will make it great. There is no glaring weakness on either team, nor is there any predominant strength which the other team should fear. The Phillies lineup is better overall than the Rays, but the Rays starting pitching is deeper, but the Phillies have the best starter in Hamels, but the Rays have home field advantage, but the Phillies have a better closer, but … we could go on and on.

2 – Both Teams Feature Homegrown Talent

This probably doesn’t matter to the casual fan, but hardcore baseball fans should love the fact that both teams are comprised primarily of homegrown stars. Pat Burrell, Jimmy Rollins, Utley, Howard, Hamels, Brett Myers, Upton, Longoria, Carl Crawford and Shields are all products of their teams’ farm systems.

It shouldn’t matter, but it does. It takes some of the luster out of watching the game when you know the outcome is being decided on a player who chose the highest bidder. Even the stars in this series that were acquired from other teams were done so through shrewd front office moves. Carlos Pena was cast off by most of the American League before finding a home in Tampa. Brad Lidge was at a crossroads in his career and was acquired for a potpourri of prospects from the Astros. Shane Victorino was Rule 5’d twice before landing in Philadelphia. Jayson Werth was released by the Dodgers, the same team that essentially gave up on Willy Aybar and let Dioner Navarro go.

I don’t know why it matters, it just seems to. Fans grow more attached to players they watch rise through their system. It helps fuel their passion.

1 – Passion

You would be hard pressed to find two cities more passionate about this World Series than Philadelphia and Tampa are this year. For Rays fans, this Series is the culmination of 10 years of frustration, playing in a terrible stadium (which all of the sudden doesn’t seem so glum), and bad ownership and leadership, only to be righted by the most magical season in baseball history.

For all the flak Rays fans caught during the year for not showing up to games, they seem to be righting the ship now. Fair-weather fans? Perhaps. Frontrunners? Pretty much by definition, yes. But their enthusiasm is real. Those stupid cowbells are real. Grown men going into work with Mohawks (I will not call them Ray-hawks) are real. And the city’s passion for this team right now is very real.

Philadelphia on the other hand has never had to fake their passion. Their own star (Rollins) called them front-runners this season, but it was a poor choice of words, in which he meant to say that Philly fans love you when you’re good, but hate you when you stink. And they really hate you, even when you stink for just a little bit. You can bet they will boo one of their own players at some point during the series. It just shows how much they care. They will also wave their rally towels until they’re blue in the face. They’ll yell, they’ll boo, and they’ll scream and cry. But you can believe they will be there, they will be watching, and they will live and die with every ball and strike. Where else would you see a scene like this just for advancing to the World Series? If that doesn’t show how much the city of Philadelphia needs a championship after 25 years of heartbreaks, nothing does.

Enjoy the Series the way you used to. If you’re team isn’t involved, watch it anyway. Watch it because you love the game of baseball. Watch it for the same reason that will cause you to start looking for hot stove news in two weeks. Watch it because your kids deserve to enjoy the game as much as you do. Watch it because it’s still the best game in America, no matter what the NFL says.

Whatever your reason, just make sure you watch.

Jeff Moore is the creator of mlbprospectwatch.com (www.mlbprospectwatch.com), a one-stop site for all information regarding baseball prospects and the minor leagues.  Check back for daily updates on your team’s future stars.

WORLD SERIES (P)REVIEW…

Today we look at team notes; tomorrow we look at player notes.

OVERALL RECORDS

• Tampa Bay Rays (97-65)
• Philadelphia Phillies (92-70)

HOME RECORDS

• Tampa Bay Rays (57-24)
• Philadelphia Phillies (48-33)

AWAY RECORDS

• Philadelphia Phillies (44-37)
• Tampa Bay Rays (40-41)

SCORING

• Philadelphia scored 799 runs and allowed 680 runs.
• Tampa Bay scored 774 runs and allowed 671 runs.

ONE RUN GAMES

• Tampa Bay Rays (29-18)
• Philadelphia Phillies (27-23)

EXTRA INNING GAMES

• Tampa Bay Rays (10-6)
• Philadelphia Phillies (6-7)

LAST 30 GAMES OF THE REGULAR SEASON

• Philadelphia Phillies (19-11)
• Tampa Bay Rays (16-14)

MISCELLANEOUS NOTES 

• In the World Series, the Phils have played the Red Sox in 1915, the Yankees in 1950, the Orioles in 1983, the Blue Jays in 1993, and the Rays. BTW: They’ve lost to all the AL East opponents.
• This is only the Phillies’ 11th postseason appearance in their 126-year history. They’ve won one World Series title (1980) and lost more games, 10,098, than any franchise in professional sports.
• The Rays had been in first place for a total of 11 days in their first 10 seasons. They led the American League East for 110 days this season.
• The last Philly championship was in 1983 when the NBA’s 76ers won it all. The last Phillies championship was 1980.
• Tampa Bay holds a 10-5 edge in the five interleague games against each other. They last met at Citizens Bank Park, in June 2006.
• St. Petersburg’s Tropicana Field hosted their first Rays game on March 31, 1998.
• Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park opened April 12, 2004.
• Citizens Bank Park was only the 11th-easiest park to hit a home run in this season.
• The teams’ spring training sites, St. Petersburg and Clearwater, are just 20 miles apart.
• The Phillies opened the season with baseball’s 13th-highest payroll at $98 million.
• The Rays have the second-lowest payroll ($43.8 million); only the Marlins are lower.
• The Phillies (42,254) had the fourth-highest average attendance in the NL
• The Rays (22,370) were 12th among the 14 AL teams in average attendance.
• Phillies pinch-hitters hit .253 second in the NL to Atlanta.
• The Rays grounded into the fewest double plays in the AL with 111.
• The Phillies had 17 extra-base hits in the four-game Brewers series.
• The Phillies bullpen led the NL with a 3.22 ERA.
• The Rays bullpen was 31-17 with a 3.55 ERA and 52 saves in 68 chances and a .220 batting average against. A year ago, Rays relievers were 21-34 with only 28 saves in 49 chances and a bullpen ERA of 6.16.
• The Phillies batted .240 in the NLCS and their pitchers compiled a 2.31 ERA.
• The Rays became the first club to lose Games 5 and 6 and then win Game 7 in an ALCS.
• The Rays stole 10 bases in 11 attempts in the ALCS.
• Tampa Bay’s .246 Batting Average Against was second only to Toronto in the AL.
• The Phils led the NL with 214 homers; the Rays hit 180 homers.
• Tampa Bay led the AL with 142 stolen bases; the Phils stole 136 bases.
• The Phillies were 79-0 during the regular season when leading after the 8th inning.

THE TROP

There are four catwalks above the playing surface at Tropicana Field. They are rings labeled A, B, C and D. Fair balls that hit the lowest two catwalks (C and D), the rings that circle the perimeter of the ballpark, are home runs. Fair balls that hit the highest two catwalks (A and B) are in play. Any fair ball that stays on top of the A and B catwalks is a ground-rule double. A foul ball that hits one of the catwalks is a dead ball.

In 11 seasons at Tropicana Field, 96 fair balls have hit catwalks, including 11 this season. Fifty-six have hit the C ring, 23 have hit the B ring and 17 have hit the D ring. None has hit the A ring.

A ball has hit the catwalk and not come down just four times, including three this season: Boston’s David Ortiz hit the D ring on Sept. 17, Boston’s Jason Bay hit the C ring the same night and Tampa Bay’s Carlos Pena hit the B ring on May 26. Jose Canseco hit the B ring on May 2, 1999.

FROM WORST TO FIRST

Rays are just the third team to advance to the World Series immediately after 10 or more consecutive losing seasons … the 1914 Boston Braves (11 straight losing seasons) defeated the Philadelphia A’s 4 games to 0 in the series and the 2006 Detroit Tigers (12 straight losing seasons) won the wild card and advanced to the Series and lost to the St. Louis Cardinals, 4 games to 1.

Only one team in major league history would have lost more games than the Rays (96) the year before going to the World Series - the 1991 Braves, who were 65-97.

EXPAND YOUR MIND

Rays will become the 11th expansion team in history (18th time) to participate in the Series. Expansion teams have now advanced to the World Series in seven of the last nine seasons, with the exceptions coming in 2004 (Red Sox vs. Cardinals) and 2006

(Tigers vs. Cardinals).

GOING YARD

Only three teams in postseason history — the 2002 Giants (27), 2004 Astros (25) and 2002 Angels (24) — have hit more homers than the Rays so far (22), while 18 of the Phillies’ playoff runs have come via the home run.

SCORING BY INNING

	Tampa	Tampa	Philly	Philly
Inning	Scored	Against	Scored	Against
1st	71	83	109	113
2nd	79	72	71	48
3rd	95	86	86	90
4th	90	93	92	93
5th	98	81	87	67
6th	85	53	123	76
7th	89	44	75	51
8th	96	85	91	78
9th	50	58	55	53
Extras	21	16	10	11

RUNNERS IN SCORING POSITION

• Phillies - .263
• Rays - .246

RUNNERS IN SCORING POSITION, 2 OUTS

• Phillies - .237
• Rays - .232

HOMERS – SEASON

• Phillies – 214
• Rays – 180

BATTING AVERAGE SEASON

• Rays - .260
• Phillies – .255

BATTING AVERAGE IN WINS

• Phillies – .294
• Rays - .288

BATTING AVERAGE IN LOSSES

• Rays - .218
• Phillies – .202

BATTING AVERAGE FIRST HALF OF THE SEASON

• Rays - .260
• Phillies – .257

BATTING AVERAGE SECOND HALF OF THE SEASON

• Rays - .261
• Phillies – .252

BATTING AVERAGE HOME

• Rays - .274
• Phillies – .262

BATTING AVERAGE AWAY

• Phillies – .249
• Rays - .248

ERA – SEASON

• Rays – 3.82
• Phillies – 3.89

ERA – HOME

• Rays – 3.30
• Phillies – 3.67

ERA - AWAY

• Phillies – 4.13
• Rays – 4.34

ERA – FIRST HALF

• Rays – 3.79
• Phillies – 3.90

ERA – SECOND HALF

• Rays – 3.85
• Phillies – 3.88

ERA – STARTERS

• Rays - 3.95
• Phillies – 4.23

ERA – RELIEVERS

• Phillies – 3.22
• Rays – 3.55

INTERLEAGUE PLAY

• The Rays were 12-6.
• The Phils were 4-11.

FROM THE WORLD SERIES SPIN ROOM

Combined, the Phillies and Rays have won seven National League pennants and one World Series title.

REALITY

The Phillies have won six pennants and one World Championship.

HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE

You might remember that yesterday we discussed the Rays received the home-field advantage because the American League won the All-Star Game 4-3 in 15 innings at Yankee Stadium. You should also note that the Rays’ Scott Kazmir worked a scoreless 15th to earn the victory, while the losing pitcher was none other than Philadelphia closer Brad Lidge.

DON’T GIVE ME A BREAK

In each of the last two years, a team that had a break of at least six days before the World Series lost to an opponent who won the seventh game of its league championship series. The Detroit Tigers, in 2006, lost in five games to St. Louis. The Rockies had won 21 of 22 games heading into the Series with Boston last year and were completely swept.

WHAT HAPPENS IN VEGAS

Las Vegas sports books favor the Rays to win the World Series over the Phillies and would owe huge payouts if the American League champions prevail. Odds makers say enough bettors took the Rays early in the year at long-shot prices to force books to adjust lines to encourage bets on the Phillies.

Sean Van Patten at Las Vegas Sports Consultants says the Rays are favored at minus-$1.35, meaning a gambler would need to bet $1.35 to be paid $1 if Tampa Bay wins.

Van Patten puts the Phillies at plus-$1.15, meaning a $1 bet would earn $1.15 if Philadelphia wins.

The Rays were a 200-1 shot to win the Series when betting opened this season, ahead of only the Kansas City Royals and Washington Nationals (both 250-1). The Phillies were 18-1.

POLITICS (DON’T READ IT IF IT SCARES YOU)

According to the latest polls, as listed on http://www.electoral-vote.com/, Obama leads in Pennsylvania 53% to 39% over McCain. In Florida, Obama leads 49% to 45%.

We know that Joe Biden has a connection with Pennsylvania, so I assume he’s a Phillies fan. Palin has stumped in NH and Florida expressing support for both the Red Sox and the Rays, so I don’t know whom she is rooting for. John McCain roots for the Diamondbacks and I don’t think they are in the Series and either are Obama’s White Sox.

“I think that I’m going to have to root for Philly potentially because my campaign manager is a fanatical Phillies fan and I don’t want him mad at me for the next few weeks,” Obama told a television station last week.

But yesterday, Obama found himself at a rally at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, and six players from the Rays outfielders Jonny Gomes and Carl Crawford, and Fernando Perez, the pitchers David Price and Edwin Jackson, and Cliff Floyd, the designated hitter, walked out — to thunderous applause — to endorse him.

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com (www.Billy-Ball.com) and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide.

Scout: Slight Advantage to the Phillies

Though it likely won’t see television ratings as if the Red Sox or Yankees were participating, this is going to be a great World Series. Both teams are talented offensively and defensively, play hard and are well coached. With two teams so evenly matched, either team could win. But we’ll go with the Phillies in six or seven, with a tipping point being the Phillies’ advantage at closer. But of course, Rays Manager Joe Maddon could make rookie David Price his closer, and Price could handle the pressure just fine. We’ll see. It’s going to be fun to watch.

2008 World Series
Characteristic (1-5)	PHI	TB
Lineup balance	4	4
Lineup strategy	4	5
Base-running	4	5
Starters	3	4
Bullpen	5	4
Closer	5	3
Defense	5	5
Defense (C,SS,2B,CF)	5	5
Coaches	5	5
Manager	4	4
Bench (offense)	5	4
Bench (defense)	3	3
Game match-ups	4	4
(advance intelligence)	+
Total	56+	55

I’m struggling for a name for this World Series. The Elite of the East World Series has a nice ring to it (no pun intended). I mean after all the Rays and the Phillies did each finish first in the East Divisions of their leagues. It sounds so much better than the Loser Series, glorifying the fact that Rays have been the biggest losers since their existence and the Phillies are the biggest losers of all-time. That’s just cruel.

I think I’m struggling because I simply didn’t prepare for this eventuality. I may be the World Worst Prognosticator, but even I didn’t predict a match-up this absurd.

I certainly didn’t on April 30, when the Rays were in third (one game out) and the Phils were in third (a half game out).

I certainly didn’t on May 29, when the Rays were in first (one game up) and the Phils were in second (a half game out).

I certainly didn’t on June 25, when the Rays were in second (one game out) and the Phils were in first (two games up).

I certainly didn’t at the All-Star break when the Rays were a half game out and the Phils were a half game up.

I certainly didn’t in late August, when two of the Rays best players, Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford, went down with injuries and the Phils were 2.5 games out.

I certainly didn’t even believe it on September 15, when the Rays led by .002 and the Phils led by a half-game.

I still couldn’t have imagined it when the Rays faced the ChiSox and the Phils went up against CC and Company.

Who was predicting this when the Rays were facing the defending World Champs and the Phils were prepping for Manny and Mannyville?

Even after the Phils clinched their spot in the Series, there was no sense of this match-up after the Sox came back from seven down with seven outs to go to elimination.

I certainly didn’t after the Red Sox tied the series with wins in games five and six.

I certainly didn’t, before the game, when Don Zimmer, the Rays’ special adviser, threw out the ceremonial first pitch.

Then when the Phils were waiting and watching the Game 7 match-up and the Sox not only had won two straight but had their ace Jon Lester on the mound, a pitcher who had personally never had suffered back-to-back losses, you know they were anticipating the cold of Boston.

By the end of the 3rd inning last night, with Lester being Larson-esque and Dustin Pedroia’s homer the only hit of the game, the pundits still were thinking about a Colonial World Series.

Then as the Rays tied the game at 1-1, and took the lead 2-1 and 3-1, somehow you expected the Sox to still come back. After all, isn’t that what they do?

Then in the incredible, incredible 20-minute top of the 8th inning, in what had to be one of the greatest examples of baseball’s ability to create pure tension in spite of the fact that there was no scoring, there was only the expectation that this is when the bendable, pliant, tensile Rays would finally break. That this would be the moment finally when a 3-1 Rays advantage would abruptly change to a Game 7-appropriate 4-3 Red Sox advantage. This inning was when Joe Maddon exorcised the demons he brought on himself in Game 5 when the Red Sox came back from seven down with seven outs remaining. This moment in time, the unexpected was that the Sox did NOT come back.

Baseball historians, and future newstalgists, will write about this inning, over and over again. Matt Garza unbelievably was still on the hill for the Rays to start the 8th. Like the Rays throughout this season, he had proven to be indomitable. After Dustin Pedroia’s homer one out into the game he had retired 14 of 15 Boston batters from the 1st inning to the 6th inning, only hitting Pedey but not allowing a hit. His pitch count kept growing and the 11-pitch, one-out walk to Pedroia in the 6th looked like the back breaker. But Garza struck out David Ortiz on a 3-2 pitch and Pedroia was doubled up trying to steal second, leaving Youkilis in the on-deck circle without the opportunity to hit a tying homer.

There was Garza pitching again in the 7th as his pitch count was heading towards the stratosphere. Kevin Youkilis popped out to short to start the inning and then J.D. Drew drew a four-pitch walk. After Jason Bay singled to left, Mark Kotsay flew out to right, as Drew advanced to third. Jason Varitek continued to appear overmatched and struck out swinging.

In the bottom of the inning, with the score 2-1, Jon Lester made his only real mistake of the night as Willy Aybar, another one of the Rays’ role players, homered to right. Don’t minimize the contribution of Aybar. He entered the game having hit .375 (6 for 16), with a homer in Game 4. He left the game hitting .421. Not only had Aybar homered and allowed his Rays at least to have a semblance of an ability to breathe, but, with the score tied at one, he led off the Rays’ 5th with a double to left and scored when Rocco Baldelli, who once was the face of the Rays and now the face of recovery, singled to left and scored Aybar putting the Rays up, 2-1. Lester retired the Rays in the bottom of the 7th and his well-pitched game and his brilliant season were over.

Then the unexpected Rock, Paper, Scissors 8th inning took place.

Matt Garza and his 116-pitch weary arm came out to the mound again, and when Alex Cora grounded to Jason Bartlett, you figured one was down. But once again, the dependable became the undependable, and the ball ate him up. Cora was at first on the error and Dan Wheeler, who had been beaten up in Game 5, came to the mound to face Coco Crisp.

Crisp, who may have made Jacoby Ellsbury expendable this off-season, continued his hot post-season and singled to right. Up stepped Dustin Pedroia who instead of celebrating this off-season will be lamenting how he just missed on the ball that was a simple fly to right. As Big Papi, David Ortiz, approached the plate, Joe Maddon took the ball from Wheeler and handed it to lefty J.P. Howell. After six tension filled pitches, Papi grounded softly to Akinori Iwamura at second. This produced one of those moments that in the not so distant past was referred to as a “Curse of the Bambino” event. In trying to ensure that there would be no double play, Crisp took out Bartlett as he took Iwamura’s toss for the force and second out. Replays showed that had Crisp gone straight for the bag instead, he would have been safe at second. But he didn’t and he wasn’t.

Now it was Kevin Youkilis’ time to turn it from 3-1 Rays to 4-3 Sox and Chad Bradford job was to stop him from doing that. He did, but on three and two, Youk walked to load the bases for J.D. Drew. Maddon had one card yet to play. In came David Price.

As I have warned you all, Price is the future ace of this team. He was 12-1 in his first professional minor league season, which by the way was THIS season. He began the season in A-ball and didn’t throw his first pitch in the majors until Sept. 14. He had thrown 14 big league innings and it wasn’t until Game 2 of the ALCS that he picked up his first major league win. On paper, it was the savvy veteran known for his clutch 8th and 9th inning RBI facing the untested rookie. Drew was paper while Price was the rock, and Drew struck out check-swinging.

After Hideki Okajima once again did his job in the bottom of the 8th, the Red Sox came to the plate in the 9th still hoping to break the Curse of Frazee (they have not won back-to-back World Series since Frazee bought the team in late 1916). Hopes were slightly raised when Price issued a leadoff walk to Jason Bay. But Mark Kotsay was overwhelmed by Price’s repertoire and struck out looking. Jason Varitek, in what could have been his last Red Sox at bat, also struck out. The remaining hope was Jed Lowrie hitting for Alex Cora. After taking one strike Lowrie grounded to second. For a moment Iwamura considered tossing to Bartlett at short for the force out, but thought better of it and ran to second himself for the final out.

There was no joy in Mudville, but there was elation in St. Pete. The human pile covered David Price on the mound and it wasn’t to celebrate his first career save.

This was a celebration of the unexpected.

This was the moment that a white haired leader with black glasses, who listens to the Stones, the Tops and Bruce, made us forget about Joe the Plumber and think only about Joe the Manager.

Matt Garza, who won two games of the ALCS, was named the MVP. He deserved it.

The Rays are going to the World Series.

So are the Phillies.

Who would have expected it?

Certainly not me. But, I’ll tell you this: they are the champions of their divisions, they are champions of their leagues and I think they are the two best teams in baseball. The World Series is the perfect place for the Elite of the East to meet.

JUST A REMINDER

The Rays are enjoying the benefit of home field advantage in the World Series because in the All-Star Game Justin Morneau slid home on Michael Young’s sacrifice fly in the 15th inning, giving the American League a 4-3 victory in the 4-hour, 50-minute marathon that ended at 1:37 a.m.

The MVP of that game was Boston’s J.D. Drew, who struck out with bags full in the 8th inning last night, but whose two-run 7th inning homer off Edinson Volquez sent the All-Star Game into extras.

TALKING PARITY

The Phillies are the 10th NL club to reach the World Series in the last 11 years.

The only team to return since 1998 is St. Louis, which was the NL champion in 2004 and 2006.

This is also the first time since 2001 not to have a Wild Card (*) team in the Series.

Baseball will have its seventh different champion in the last eight seasons.

• 2007 World Series (4-0): Boston Red Sox (96-66) vs. Colorado Rockies* (90-73)
• 2006 World Series (4-1): St. Louis Cardinals (83-78) vs. Detroit Tigers* (95-67)
• 2005 World Series (4-0): Chicago White Sox (99-63) vs. Houston Astros* (89-73)
• 2004 World Series (4-0): Boston Red Sox* (98-64) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (105-57)
• 2003 World Series (4-2): Florida Marlins* (91-71) vs. New York Yankees (101-61)
• 2002 World Series (4-3): Anaheim Angels* (99-63) vs. San Francisco Giants* (95-66)
• 2001 World Series (4-3): Arizona D-backs (92-70) vs. New York Yankees (95-65)
• 2000 World Series (4-1): New York Yankees (87-74) vs. New York Mets* (94-68)
• 1999 World Series (4-0): New York Yankees (98-64) vs. Atlanta Braves (103-59)
• 1998 World Series (4-0): New York Yankees (114-48) vs. San Diego Padres (98-64)

TO FOX

This World Series pits teams from the 4th- and 12th-largest media markets in the U.S. facing each other. The last matchup of two small-market teams, St. Louis and Detroit in 2006, produced the lowest ratings ever for a World Series, with an average 15.8 million viewers tuning in for each game. Two years earlier an average 25.5 million watched as the Boston Red Sox defeated the Cardinals to end their 86-year championship curse.

DID YOU KNOW?

In the six games in which they used a DH, in Oakland and in Texas, the Phillies batted just .083, with two hits in 24 at-bats. Ryan Howard and Greg Dobbs picked up the hits.

PROBABLE PITCHERS

• Cole Hamels will start against Scott Kazmir in Game 1
• Followed by Brett Myers against James Shields in Game 2
• Jamie Moyer against Matt Garza in Game 3 in Philadelphia
• And, Joe Blanton against Andy Sonnanstine in Game 4.

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com (www.Billy-Ball.com) and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide.

It’s easy to get caught up in the magic that seems to be propelling the Tampa Bay Rays this season. The vivacious group of mohawked youngsters seems to be completely unaware of the notion that they are a year early in their supposed plan for American League dominance.

But for fans who think this Rays team has all the makings of a one-year wonder, take a closer look.

Sure they are set for years with established veterans (a relative term on this team) like Carl Crawford and Scott Kazmir. And sure, the emergence of Rookie of the Year no-brainer Evan Longoria and the breakout seasons of Dioner Navarro and Matt Garza give them depth in both the lineup and the rotation.

But the Rays and manager Joe Maddon sent a signal to the Boston Red Sox and the rest of the American League powers-that-be on Sunday night when they closed out the series, not only with authority, but with 22-year-old ace-in-the-making David Price recording a 4-out save, the first save of his career.

The message was sent loud and clear: If you think we’re good now, just wait until next year.

Price, the 2007 number 1 overall pick, has dominated every level of pro baseball he has been a part of, and the Red Sox in Game 7 of the ALCS proved to be no exception. Price, however, is quite an exception.

At 6’6″ and left-handed, Price was summoned amidst a raucous Tropicana Field crowd by Maddon to face J.D. Drew with the bases loaded and 2 outs, with the tying run on 2nd base in the 8th inning. Exactly 18 months ago, Price was playing for Vanderbilt in a big SEC tilt against conference rival Auburn. Needless to say the stakes were slightly higher Sunday night.

Drew, having shed his reputation for lackadaisical play with more than his fair share of clutch hits this postseason, was the sole reason (it appeared at the time) for Price’s appearance in the game. Price, with much more in his arsenal than your average left-handed specialist, made short work of Drew with back-to-back Randy Johnson-esque sliders and an overpowering fastball. With more established flamethrower Grant Balfour warming up in the bullpen at the time of Price’s entrance, it appeared Maddon had Price tabbed for only the one big out.

But during the Rays half of 8th, Maddon sent a message to the baseball world via the bullpen telephone. He sat Balfour down, announcing to the rest of the world that this was Price’s game. He was putting the American League crown in the hands of a 22-year-old with 14 regular season innings to his name and exactly zero saves in his career.

And no one who has been following the Rays this season was surprised.

In fact, it was a great move. Maddon clearly does not worry about age or experience. Three members of the Rays lineup are 24-years-old or younger, including the heart of their lineup, number two and three hitters B.J. Upton (23) and Evan Longoria (22). The Rays have yet to start a pitcher older than 25 this postseason. So why should Maddon have been afraid of trusting the 22-year-old Price, whose stuff is more electric than the Tropicana Field crowd?

With Price on the mound for the final out of the American League season, it sent the message to the Red Sox which read, “not only are we for real, and not only did you just lose to a group of kids, but we’re only going to get better. We did all this, and barely used our most talented pitcher. Look out.”

And the rest of the American League should look out, as should the Phillies.

The one chink in the armor for the Rays might have been their bullpen, not for the entire post-season, but at least since they gave up a 7-run lead with seven outs to play in Fenway in Game 5. But Price, with four outs of heart-pounding work, patched the damaged psyche of the Rays bullpen, and gave Tampa fans visions of fanning the left-handed heart of the Phillies order, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley.

Don’t be surprised if Price assumes the closer’s role during the World Series. Would it be out of the ordinary for a manager to use an untested 22-year-old rookie starting pitcher as a closer for the first time during the organization’s first trip to the World Series? Out of the ordinary doesn’t describe it. How about incredible and absurd? How about historic?

But that defines this Rays team. It is absurd how incredible they have been, and how historic they have become. They are redefining traditional thinking, and in the process, shaking up the balance of power in baseball. Whether or not they complete their journey to baseball immortality is of little consequence. They are for real, and they will be here for quite some time.

Baseball, take notice.

Jeff Moore is the creator of mlbprospectwatch.com (www.mlbprospectwatch.com), a one-stop site for all information regarding baseball prospects and the minor leagues.  Check back for daily updates on your team’s future stars.

In April of this year, the New York Yankees ripped up part of their new stadium floor be ripped up because a construction worker put a Red Sox jersey in the concrete. Seems the construction worker was a Red Sox fan and by putting the shirt underneath the Stadium. He was hoping to “jinx” the new Stadium. Silly.

It took five hours of jack hammering to find the shirt, now shredded by the jackhammers. Even more silly, no?

No. It’s not.

The Yankees did the right thing in removing the shirt, because in removing it, it removes all of the unnecessary potential thought-processes from starting. Why leave it there? To have some sportswriter bring it up every time the Yanks lose a series to Boston? To let the “jinx” grow and fester and foment in the Yankees’ minds? To make it actually become a jinx in real life? The Yankee Shirt Jinx.

Curses are dangerous. Not because anyone thinks they are real in the cold light of day. But they are very real in the fragile mind of a player. Players’ minds can turn one opposing team into an unbeatable juggernaut. They can jinx a franchise and can turn a totally winnable playoff series into one catastrophic, inevitable failure. It’s serious stuff. If a jinx gets into a team’s head, they don’t lose games to other teams; they beat themselves.

Which brings me to the Tampa Rays. The Red Sox are in their head now. Manager Joe Maddon can say whatever he likes, but the fact that the Red Sox have not only come back from a 3-1 deficit, but did in such indomitable fashion – down 7-0 with 7 outs to go in game 5 – has put them firmly and intractably inside the Rays’ fragile heads.

Athletes are fragile, and nowhere more so than in baseball. A slight “yip” can enter the brain and can destroy a player’s psyche. Rick Ankiel struck out almost 10 batters a game at the age of 20, and then suddenly he couldn’t get it anywhere near the catcher’s glove. A solid catcher named Mackey Sasser, seemingly overnight, couldn’t throw a baseball back to the pitcher. By 1999 second baseman Chuck Knoblauch would throw a few throws a game from 2nd base towards row 4 of Yankee Stadium rather than towards first base.

That’s the fragility of a baseball players’, or a baseball teams’ psyche. And when that happens on a team level – when one team “owns” another, it can be tough to break. The Rays don’t want to blow being up 3-1 on the Red Sox and have Boston win the series. The repercussions could be long lasting.

The Rays can still win it, with a few lucky breaks, and with Boston not capitalizing on mistakes. But from what I’ve seen, the Rays are already thinking. And over thinking. And that leads to meltdowns. They are already starting to beat themselves, as witnessed by shortstop Jason Bartlett’s errant throw to first Saturday night which resulted in two runs. These are the signs of a team playing tight.

I picked the Rays to win in seven. And to that I hold firmly. I think the Rays are the better team. But I’m pretty sure that when Boston came back from the dead and scored eight runs and won game 5, I wasn’t the only one who said “Uh oh.” I’m pretty sure that’s what all the Rays’ players were thinking.

2004 and 2008 Similarities

Look at the similarities between game 6 in 2004 and game 6 in 2008. In both games, Boston was on the road trailing three games to two, with a wounded ace on the mound.

In 2004 Curt Schilling was pitching with a torn sheath on his foot. The blood came through Schilling’s sock and could be seen on camera. Boston won the game 4-2 to send it to a seventh game.

In 2008 Josh Beckett pitched with a torn oblique. You could almost see the red coming through his uniform. If you looked hard, it was as if Roy Hobbs had come to life, and the blood from The Natural was now on the side of Beckett. Boston won the game 4-2 to send it to a seventh game.

Boston’s 10th Game 7

Now on to game 7. Waking up to the morning of a game 7 is like Christmas morning to any fan of the two teams. This is the 10th time the Boston Red Sox have played a game 7:

• 1912: World Series with NY Giants, although it was really eight games because one was a tie.
• 1946: World Series St. Louis Cardinals
• 1967: World Series St. Louis Cardinals
• 1975: World Series Cincinnati Reds
• 1986: ALCS LA Angels
• 1986: World Series NY Mets
• 2003: ALCS NY Yankees
• 2004: ALCS NY Yankees
• 2007: ALCS Cleveland Indians
• 2008: ALCS Tampa Bay Rays

Ultimate Games

There is a baseball site called The Baseball Page that has a section called Ultimate Games. According to their definition, an Ultimate Game is a must win situation for both teams involved. Any seventh game is an automatic UG for example, but if two teams are tied for the lead and play each other on the last day, then that becomes an Ultimate Game as well.

When you add the 10 seventh games Boston has played to the six listed below, it gives Boston a total of 16 Ultimate Games.

• 1948 playoff with Cleveland
• 1949 tied with NY going into the last game
• 1967 tied with Minnesota going into the last game
• 1978 playoff with NY
• 1999 ALDS with Cleveland
• 2003 ALDS with Oakland

The team with the most Ultimate Games is the New York Yankees with 23. Boston is second with 16. 

Some teams wait a century between Ultimate Games. The Chicago White Sox played their first Ultimate Game in the last game of the regular season in 1908. The next one they played was in 2008 when they played Minnesota in a one game playoff.

Game 7 tonight will be Tampa Bay’s first Ultimate Game.

Walkoffs, last licks and final outs, baseball’s grand (and not grand) finales – somebody should write a book with that title and add another amazing Red Sox chapter.

Last night’s incredible Red Sox comeback was truly one for the ages. As I walked around work Friday morning, and speak to colleagues, sadly, I find very few who emulated myself and my wife and stayed awake to watch the thrilling ending. Taking success for granted is a horrible sin.

Here are a few moments from last night that are discussion worthy:

Let’s move straight to top of the 7th inning with the Rays up 5-0. Manny Delcarmen comes in relief of Hideki Okajima. Delcarmen walks Bartlett and Iwamura. TURNING POINT MOMENT: Terry Francona then brought in his closer Jonathan Papelbon. The last time Papelbon appeared in the 7th inning of a game was in 2005, before his role of closer was clearly defined. By putting in Papelbon here manager Terry Francona was making the statement that this game still mattered, this game was still winnable.

The problem was that Papelbon wasn’t ready. He didn’t appear as if he physically or psychologically had prepared himself to be in this situation. My ballpark sources say that Papelbon was off the plate on every warm-up throw.

Bartlett stole third, Iwamura stole second and B.J. Upton doubled off the wall to make it a 7-0 game. Francona was still working. He walked Pena intentionally. Evan Longoria ran the count to 3-2. TURNING POINT MOMENT: Joe Maddon chose to not send the runners. I remember clearly thinking, does he want to not appear to be running up the score? Will he regret this? He did Longoria grounded into a double play, Carl Crawford grounded out to third and we headed to the bottom of the 7th, 7-0.

You could see in the change of innings fans leaving the park. They would soon regret it.

Grant Balfour relieved Scott Kazmir. Kazmir had thrown 111 pitches and justified Maddon’s choice to be the Game 5 starter. Jed Lowrie doubled to deep right. Jason Varitek flied out to center in what could turn out to be his last Fenway at bat as a member of the Red Sox. Mark Kotsay flied out to center. Coco Crisp, who ended the season hitting .375 in September, singled to left, Lowrie advanced to third. Up stepped my AL MVP this season, Dustin Pedroia. In late game situations this year Pedroia hit .368. On his eighth pitch of the bat Petey singled to right, and Lowrie scored, while Crisp moved to third.

TURNING POINT MOMENT: The Rays had “owned” David Ortiz coming into this at bat. Once place they had not pitched him was a fastball low and in; that’s his wheelhouse. After ball one, he proved my point. It now was a 7-4 ballgame in the 7th. This was a ballgame.

TURNING POINT MOMENT: If the Rays do move onto the World Series, the one area of glaring weakness is the fact that they do not have a bonafide closer. The closest they have right now is Dan Wheeler. In what can only be construed as a moment of panic on Joe Maddon’s behalf, Wheeler came into the game. It was not as if the Rays did not have strength remaining in their pen, but I think Francona’s move psyched Maddon. Wheeler got the last out of the 7th.

Papelbon was now physically, and more importantly psychologically, in this game. In the top of the 8th, Willy Aybar came to the plate. Aybar took a strike and a ball before he fouled off five pitches and struck out swinging. On a 2-0 count, Dioner Navarro flew out to center. The Rays were no longer being patient. They were clearly trying to rush to the end. On three pitches, Gabe Gross struck out.

TURNING POINT MOMENT: Wheeler is on the mound for the Rays as they hold a 7-4 lead and Jason Bay led off with a four-pitch walk. This is when the Rays should have had Wheeler warming up, but this is when Wheeler surrendered a two-run J.D. Drew homer. It was 7-6 Rays but the Fenway Faithful were not to be denied even after a very rusty Sean Casey struck out and an over-anxious Jed Lowrie gently flew out to left.

Mark Kotsay showed his experience and on a 2-0 pitch he doubled to deep center. TURNING POINT MOMENT: Here’s where Wheeler should have been brought into the game, but he was way too deep into losing the lead at this point. Up stepped Coco Crisp. With the tying run on second, Coco looked at a ball and a strike and another ball. Coco then fouled off strike two and watched ball three. Then foul, foul, foul, and another foul ball, each time Coco was getting the fat part of the bat on the ball. He was not being fooled by anything; he was simply waiting for a Wheeler mistake. It came on the next pitch and Coco Crisp singled to right. Gabe Gross’ throw was gross indeed as Mark Kotsay scored the tying run. Because of the mis-throw, Crisp was tagged out at second attempting to advance. This game was tied.

I’m told that the sense in the ballpark was that no matter what the Rays did in their half of the 9th, a Red Sox victory was now inevitable. It did not appear that way as once again Justin Masterson came in and seemed overwhelmed by the situation. Jason Bartlett led off with a single. Bartlett did not challenge the arm of Kevin Cash, who was now catching, and remained stuck at first as Akinori Iwamura flied out to left. B.J. Upton drew a five-pitch walk. TURNING POINT MOMENT: Two fast base runners, one out, and Carlos Pena at the plate. There is still no sign of base runners moving, and that proved to be fatal as Pena grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first.

We headed to the bottom of the 9th all tied up. J.P. Howell, who should have been pitching in the 7th, now came on in relief of Dan Wheeler. Howell got Dustin Pedroia on a grounder to third and Big Papi on a strikeout. He was disposing of the heart of the Red Sox order and up stepped Kevin Youkilis, who started working the situation. After looking at two balls and two strikes, Youk fouled off four pitches before he ran the count full. TURNING POINT MOMENT: Youkilis then hit a tough bouncer down the third base line, Evan Longoria moved in and made a beautiful back-hand short-hop pick up and then came premature congratulations. You could physically see Longoria relax after fielding the ball and he non-chalanted it to first base. The ball bounced way short of first. Carlos Pena tried to field it and the ball climbed up Pena’s arm and into the stands. Inexplicably, Youk was given a hit and he advanced to second on the error. TURNING POINT MOMENT: Jason Bay was intentionally passed so that Howell could face J.D. Drew. I don’t disguise my disdain for Drew, but I cannot deny that he has a gift for hitting in the clutch. He remains relaxed and focused and seemed calm as he worked the count to 3-1. When the Rays have Fernando Perez, B.J. Upton and Carl Crawford in the outfield, they can play closer to the infield than any other outfield in baseball because they have the speed to go back on the ball. Gabe Gross does not possess that speed and why he was playing so shallow remains a mystery in game filled with mystery and magic.

J.D. Drew hit what amounted to a ground-rule single to deep right, Youkilis scored, and the Sox joined the Rays on their trip to Tampa.

Asked how well his troops will recover, “I don’t think it’ll be that tough actually,” Maddon said. “Again, it’s one game. It’s a loss. Obviously we’re in a pretty good position to move on. … If you dwell on something like that and you permit your mind to dwell in that negative mode, than nothing good can happen after that.”

Said Francona: “I’ve never seen a group so happy to get on a plane at 1:30 in the morning in my life.”

It was a grand finale.

But where was Trever Miller?

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com (www.Billy-Ball.com) and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide.

Congratulations to the Phillies and their fans on heading to the 2008 World Series. The Phils were not the most popular pick (were they, Cubs fans?). And, the Phils were not the trendiest pick (were they, Dodger fans?). The Phils were not the underdog pick (were they, Brewers fans?) The Phils were simply the best team in the National League this season, and the fact that they are heading to the Series is no accident.

Because the Phils were not the most popular, trendiest, or the underdogs, many people don’t know as much about this team as they should. This ends today.

Study the attached information, there will be a test starting October 22.

NO.	NAME	POS	AGE	2008 SALARY
55	Clay Condrey	RP	32	$420,000	Finished the season with a 2.51 ERA (16 ER, 57.1 IP) over his last 46 appearances after posting a 6.39 ERA over his 1st 10 appearances (9 ER, 12.2 IP)
37	Chad Durbin	RP	30	$900,000	Led all NL relievers in innings (87.2) in his career-high 71 appearances
47	Scott Eyre	RP	36	$3,800,000	Allowed runs in only 2 of his 19 appearances with the Phillies.
54	Brad Lidge	RP	31	$6,350,000	Posted a 0.61 ERA (ER, 14.2 IP) over his final 15 appearances of the season (Phils were 14 -1)
63	Ryan Madson	RP	28	$1,400,000	Allowed only 1 ER over his final 14 appearances (14.1 IP)
16	J.C. Romero	RP	32	$3,250,000	68 of his 81 appearances this season were scoreless
56	Joe Blanton	SP	27	$3,700,000	Opponents stole only 4 bases off him this season in his 197.2 IP
35	Cole Hamels	SP	24	$500,000	Reached career highs this season in starts (33) and innings pitched (227.1)
43	J.A. Happ	SP	25	N/A	Led the International League in SO (151) at the time of his 3rd recall, 9/1
50	Jamie Moyer	SP	45	$6,000,000	The Phillies were 22-11 (.667) in his 33 starts.
39	Brett Myers	SP	28	$8,583,333	Allowed 5 HR over his last 13 starts (88.1 IP) after allowing 24 HR over his first 17 outings of the season (101.2 IP).
27	Chris Coste	C	35	$415,000	Caught 8 of 52 potential basestealers (15.4%)
51	Carlos Ruiz	C	29	$425,000	Had the 3-lowest catchers ERA (3.83) in the NL
4	Eric Bruntlett	SS	30	$600,000	Batted .250 (5-20), 2B, RBI, 4 BB as a pinch hitter
19	Greg Dobbs	3B	30	$440,000	Led the majors in pinch hits (22), ranked 2nd in RBI (16), T-2nd in HR (2) and T-4th in doubles (3)
7	Pedro Feliz	3B	33	$3,000,000	6 of his 14 HR either tied the game or gave the Phillies a lead (5 leads/1 tie)
6	Ryan Howard	1B	28	$10,000,000	Appeared in every Phillies game in 2008, extending his consecutive games-played streak to 277, the longest among active major league players
11	Jimmy Rollins	SS	29	$8,000,000	Finished with the best fielding % (.988) among all NL shortstops. Made only 2 errors in his final 67 starts
12	Matt Stairs	1B	40	$1,625,000	Acquired from TOR, 8/30, in exchange for a player to be named later – it will not be me.
26	Chase Utley	2B	29	$7,785,714	Is only the third 2nd baseman in MLB history to have 4 straight 100-RBI seasons, joining Jeff Kent (6, 1997-2002) and Charlie Gehringer (5, 1932-36)
5	Pat Burrell	LF	32	$14,250,000	The Phillies were 22-9 (.710) this season when he has homered in a game
10	Geoff Jenkins	RF	34	$5,000,000	Appeared only in RF in 2008 (70 starts). For his career, has made 868 career starts in LF and 341 in RF
99	So Taguchi	LF	39	$900,000	Batted .091 (3-33), 2B, 2 RBI, 2 BB as a pinch hitter in 2008
8	Shane Victorino	CF	27	$480,000	2008 NL Rankings: 3rd in infield hits (34) … 5th in triples (8) … 6th in stolen bases (36) … T-6th in bunt hits (9) … T-8th in multi-hit games (50
28	Jayson Werth	RF	29	$1,700,000	Stole his final 17 straight bases of the season without being caught (last CS: 4/23 at MIL)

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com (www.Billy-Ball.com) and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide.

Red Sox Lineup Unable to Instill Fear

Without Manny Ramirez and with the current order of batting from the Red Sox, the Rays’ pitchers don’t see or fear the presence of danger from the Red Sox lineup. The result is that Rays pitchers can stick to their strengths and pitching plan and have greater influence over the game’s outcome. For example, despite all the talk about Kevin Youkilis being a league MVP, he isn’t viewed as a “dangerous hitter” batting behind David Ortiz. If I’m an opposing pitcher, I’m avoiding giving Ortiz anything to hit. I throw strikes to Youkilis, and not to Ortiz or J.D. Drew. That’s what the Rays did Tuesday night when the game was close.

The ability to display danger in a Major League lineup is the ultimate characteristic of a World Series champion. Of course, it’s not measurable as a statistic, so it will go overlooked or ignored altogether. But poll all pitchers on who out of the following they would like to pitch to with the score tied late in the game:

• J.D. Drew
• David Ortiz
• Manny Ramirez
• Mike Lowell
• Carlos Pena
• Evan Longoria
• Kevin Youkilis

… and the answer would be Youkilis. Sometimes good stats just mean that somebody got more good pitches to hit than other hitters. And that’s because pitchers don’t see as much danger.

Rays Lineup Is Dangerous

Because of the Rays’ ability to steal, the Red Sox have to adjust their pitch sequences. For example, if Evan Longoria happens to be hitting the fastball for more power than he is breaking pitches, the Red Sox naturally will be more likely to throw breaking pitches. Breaking pitches, of course, are easier to steal against because a) they are slower and b) they are more likely to be off the plate and/or down in the dirt, making it more difficult for the catcher to catch and release the ball cleanly. So if the Rays can get their speed guys (B.J. Upton and Jason Bartlett) on base ahead of Longoria, the Red Sox could feel pressured to offer Longoria more fastballs.

Another example is how Bartlett can be used in hit and run situations. Breaking pitches are easier to put in play, especially with a good hit and run man at the plate. If a guy like Gabe Gross is on base (he’s not a great steal threat, but he’s a good runner), the Rays have more options, and the Red Sox might adjust their pitch sequence because of it.

What Can the Red Sox Do to Improve Their Line-up?

Here’s how the best managers go about setting their line-up. The major factors are:

• LI (lineup influence) controls LB
• LB (lineup balance) controls MP
• MP (matchup position) controls SR
• SR (statistical relevance) influences RPP
• RPP (run production positioning)

Of course, there are other, minor factors to consider: injuries, batting practice execution, the opposing pitcher’s ability to hold runners and make in-game adjustments, etc.

Taking those factors into account, here’s how the Red Sox line-up should look versus James Shields:

1. Pedroia 2B
2. Youkilis 3B
3. Drew RF
4. Ortiz DH
5. Bay LF
6. Kotsay 1B
7. Varitek C
8. Cora SS
9. Ellsbury CF

And here’s how it should look versus Scott Kazmir:

1. Pedroia 2B
2. Lowrie SS
3. Youkilis 3B
4. Bay LF
5. Ortiz DH
6. Varitek C
7. Drew RF
8. Kotsay 1B
9. Crisp CF

Mike Pagliarulo played 11 years in the Majors (Yankees, Padres, Twins, Orioles and Rangers) and one in Japan. After his retirement in 1995, Mike served as a scout with focus on Pacific Rim talent. He is now the president of the Baseline Group, a consulting firm providing player evaluation and development consulting to professional baseball teams. The Baseline Group provided consulting for the undefeated and gold-medal winning 2008 Olympic South Korean baseball team.

The symbols for crisis and opportunity in the Chinese language are the same. Well, now the Red Sox nation is in a crisis and with it comes an opportunity to become the greatest comeback baseball team of all time. As this story is about to unfold let me point out that somewhere it has already been written. I am delivering to you tomorrow’s paper.

Here is what has happened. The Red Sox, a team that has swallowed the poison pill two times since 2004, have proven that these pills are nothing more than a placebo. The Red Sox have just proven to the world that the great Rasputin had nothing on them.

As we review this particular episode of ipecac, we start with Dice K’s brilliant pitching performance in game 5 of the ALCS. As the Dice Man took the hill on this dreary fall night the Sox were staring down the barrel of a loaded 44, trailing the division champion Rays three games to one. The young Rays had made absolute mincemeat of the defending world champions. However, once the Dice Man cooled off the X-Rays’ bats, the Red Sox, as they did in game one, were able to wake their own once sleeping bats and roll to easy victory.

In Game 6, back at the Tropicana Center, it was the Boston hero and ace of last year’s championship, where a 3-1 deficit was vanquished thanks in large part to Josh Beckett. It was Beckett who in last year’s fifth game helped turn the tide and dash Cleveland’s dreams of a World Series appearance. Beckett slammed the door on the Tribe and Boston was not stopped, as they won their final seven postseason games. Not to most people’s surprise, even in the face of injury, Beckett climbed back from his less than stellar first start in the series and let his nasty pitches keep the Ray champagne on ice. Beckett was his old masterful self as Big Papi and company put the Rays fans to sleep with some numbing blasts into the catwalks.

Now, with the world watching, the Sox made their third astonishing comeback a reality. Game 7 was more like the dance of the toreros as “the bull” charged one more time, only to feel the steel of the Red Sox applying the final touches of another, “we played with you long enough” game. Jon Lester put the finishing touches and polished the chrome as Ray bats were rendered useless yet again.

As baseball remembers and defines its most amazing performance, the Red Sox of 08 became the performance, the feat, the comeback. They called Babe Ruth the sultan of swat; now there is champion of comeback. It is the crisis/opportunity Sox. My hat goes off to the greatest comeback team in baseball history.

I clearly cannot predict the future, as noted by my self-proclaimed title of the “World’s Worst Prognosticator.” But that does not prevent me from commenting on the past and the present, and as of today the Tampa Bay Rays have turned the ALCS into a contest that looks remarkably like Barack Obama and John McCain. And, clearly putting political leanings aside, the Sox look like John McCain.

Yes Soxonians, John McCain’s “Country First” could just as easily read “Nation First” and then you would no doubt know what I’m talking about. The Rays, look young, exciting, vibrant and filled with creative ways of winning. Which candidate does that remind you of?

While, on the other hand, the Sox today (certainly in comparison) look old. They began last night’s game with Tim Wakefield, who at 42 years and 73 days became the oldest pitcher in history to start an ALCS game. They ended the game with Mike Timlin who is also 42. Do the math folks: Wakefield + Timlin = McCain.

The Rays, on the other hand, are comprised of youth. I mean really young guys. Cliff Floyd, born in December 1972, is the oldest. He’s followed by Trevor Miller, who was born in May 1973, and Chad Bradford born in September 1974. These guys are just pieces of the Rays puzzle, albeit important, but truly complimentary. The heart of this 25-man roster is comprised of the 15 players who were born in the 1980’s. Youth = Obama.

This is not to say that the Red Sox don’t have talented young players, because they do. Dustin Pedroia is as exciting a player as there is out there and as talented. To a lesser extent the Sox also feature Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie, both of whom are young, both of whom who are talented, neither of whom would crack the Rays lineup.

After watching these two teams play, there is no one who could question which team gets John McCain’s “conservative” label. The Rays run liberally, many times showing the exuberance of youth and going a little too far, too quickly, and they pay the consequences. But that is what happens sometime when you lack familiarity in a rarified setting, which is why this team is backed by the wisdom, the guidance, and the experience of their mentor in the dugout, Joe Biden, I mean Joe Maddon.

It’s funny, but the Sox were once the upstarts, they were the Dirt Dogs. They were the team that everybody wanted to be like. They truly led the way. And other teams followed, including and especially the Rays. Building from within, the Rays have put together a team of incredibly talented athletes who are thrilling to watch at the plate, on the bases, and especially in the field. One by one the Sox dismantled the 2004 Idiots and, while they are a great team, they are vanilla in so many ways.

One last item. I was listening to ESPN radio and heard J.D. Drew talking with Colin Cowherd about how during the off-season after a morning of deer hunting, Drew listens to ESPN radio. Well, that I figure locks up the NRA endorsement for the Sox. The flip side is the Rays have a young, future pitching star by the name of David Price – the winner of Game 2 of the ALCS. Price is my friend on Facebook. Yes, the Rays have discovered the Internet.

I can’t predict the future of this series; there is no team more proficient at coming back from 3-1 deficits than the Red Sox. Nor can I predict the outcome of the election; there is no politician better coming back from the dead than John McCain. But I can tell you this: this appears to be a different baseball landscape and a different political one as well and, while history can still repeat, the Rays are getting my vote.

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com (www.Billy-Ball.com) and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide.

Ridiculous Game Times and Lengths

When is baseball going to wake up to the fact that nobody watches these games that end in the middle of the night?

The Boston Red Sox have played six postseason games this season. Here are their lengths and ending times:

Ending time	Length	Outcome
1:24 AM	3:14	4-1
1:21 AM	3:51	7-5
12:49 AM	5:19	5-4, 12 innings
11:51 PM	3:14	3-2
12:08 AM	3:25	2-0
1:35 AM	5:27	9-8, 11 innings

Why can’t baseball figure out that more people would watch if the games ended at a primetime? Baseball should get rid of TBS and package their product to the fans of the teams that are playing. Let the fans of the teams playing decide when the games should begin.

Nobody watches at 1:35 in the morning. The country has 47% of the population in the Eastern Time Zone. Wake up baseball!

Boston’s Game 2 Mistakes

The Red Sox should have dropped Jacoby Ellsbury to the end of the order and had Coco Crisp bat first in game 2. They would have scored at least two more runs. They need to bench Ellsbury for game 3 – he doesn’t even know how to bunt.

Why did Justin Masterson only face three batters? He should have gone for two innings and then Jonathan Papelbon for two more. Paul Byrd should have pitched in the fifth, as soon as the first batter reached base.

Javier Lopez and Mike Timlin should not be on the roster. Michael Bowden and Daniel Bard should have been. Bard is as good as David Price, but he never got a chance. Why? He throws strikes at 100, and instead, Lopez is throwing frisbees.

Sean Casey deserves a start at first. Mark Kotsay has done nothing at the plate, and Casey always hits the ball hard.

HISTORY BEGINS TONIGHT

This season, the Rays went 10-8 against Boston. The Sox lost seven of their final nine to Tampa Bay. Since 1999, the Rays had gone 25 trips to Fenway Park without winning a series (0-21-4), until taking two out of three from the Red Sox Sept. 8-10. From their birth year in 1996 until this year, the Rays were 58-111 against the Red Sox. They are 0-0 this morning.

NUMBERS ONLY TELL PART OF A STORY

As I wrote, the Rays went 10-8 against Boston this season. Might I add, the Rays were outscored by Boston 87-67 and hit only .233. On the other hand, their bullpen was 7-0 against the Red Sox.

NEXT YEAR WILL BE HIS FIRST

Rookie of the Year in waiting, Evan Longoria, who hit 28 home runs and drove in 85 runs, will have his first full year in the majors, next year. This year he was called up two weeks after Opening Day.

OY VEY KAZMIR

Scott Kazmir was 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in four starts against Boston this season. He allowed six home runs in 18 innings and walked 14 batters.

DICE-KRAZY

Daisuke Matsuzaka went an incredible 18-3 this season, yet somehow managed to go eight innings only twice. He has one complete game in 61 big league starts. He pitched only 167.2 innings, 39th most in the league. He gave up only 128 hits, but he led the league in walks with 94. His 76 road innings were the 42nd most in the league, but he led AL starters with a 2.37 road ERA. Batters were 0-14 against him with the bases loaded. In three starts against the Rays, he was 1-0 with 3.00 ERA and 17 strikeouts. He allowed the Rays 13 hits and 11 walks in 15 innings.

AKI

Akinori Iwamura grounded into only two double plays in 707 plate appearances.

HINSKEING WITH THE ROSTER

The Tampa Bay Rays added right-hander Edwin Jackson who will serve as the long reliever in their bullpen, and removed utility man Eric Hinske. Jackson, who won 14 games this season, got the nod over veteran closer Troy Percival, who has been hampered by various ailments. The Boston Red Sox, meantime, dropped utility infielder Gil Velazquez and added veteran right-hander Mike Timlin, a middle reliever who struggled down the stretch but has a 3.94 ERA in 44 career postseason appearances.

9=8

Manager Joe Maddon brought the “9=8″ slogan into Spring Training which meant “nine players playing hard every day translates into being one of the eight teams going to the postseason.” The “nine,” Maddon said, also meant nine more wins from the offense, nine more wins from the defense and nine more from the pitching, and from the get-go the young Rays bought into it in spite of the fact they had gone 66-96 the previous season and never won more than 70 games in a season. “That meant 27 more wins, which would put us at 93,” said Maddon. “We clinched the wild card at 92. But even though we’d never had a winning season here, if you’re going to aim for 81 wins as your goal, you just might not win more than 75. I believe in setting your sights a little higher.”

DESPERATE ROOKIE

Red Sox pitchers limited Evan Longoria to one homer, six RBIs and a .239 average in 46 at bats.

WHY THEY CALL IT THE BAY STATE

Jason Bay hit .293 with nine homers and 37 RBIs in 48 games in Boston. He then hit .419 with five RBIs and was key in the ALDS victory over the Angels. Also, he homered in each of the first two games of that series, joining Manny (2008 Dodgers) and Ruben Sierra (1995 Yankees) as the only midseason additions to do that in the playoffs. Bay was second to Jacoby Ellsbury, who had six RBI in the ALDS.

THEY’RE MUDDERS. THEIR MUDDERS WERE MUDDERS

The Sox were 1-8 at the Trop and 7-18 overall on turf. Indoors, Boston was 4-16: 1-8 at Tropicana Field, 1-3 at Minnesota’s Metrodome and Toronto’s Rogers Centre (the roof was open for the five other Blue Jays home games), and 1-2 at Houston’s Minute Maid Park.

THE ERRORS OF THEIR WAYS

Tampa Bay committed 90 errors, Boston 85. The Sox allowed just 49 unearned runs, the second-lowest total in the league; the Rays just 53.

TOO MUCH? TOO LITTLE? OR JUST RIGHT?

Matsuzaka will be working on seven days rest tonight, while Beckett and Lester will each go on six days rest in Games 2 and 3. Wakefield hasn’t pitched since the regular season finale Sept. 30.

SWEET HOME TAMPA

The Rays were 6-0 at home vs. Boston and 0-6 at Fenway this season. The Rays then took 4-of-6, including 2-of-3 at Fenway.

HOME SWEET DOME

The Rays are 23-2 at home with crowds larger than 30,000.

AT HOME IN THE DOME

Since April 16 and including the postseason, the Rays are 32-4 at the Trop in games decided by one or two runs. They’ve lost only one close game at home since June 22.

LESTER THE BESTER

Jon Lester allowed just one unearned run in 14 innings in two division series starts. Including the postseason, he has allowed one run or fewer in eight of his past 10 starts.

FLAMMABLE WHEN MIXED

The Rays finished first in the American League in stolen bases with 142. The Rays were 7-for-8 on stolen bases in the ALDS. Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek threw out just 18.8% of would-be base-stealers this season. Tek also hit .214 with no extra-base hits against the Angels. He is the weakest link.

FULL OF BULL

The Rays’ bullpen ERA in the ALDS was 0.77. Lefty J.P. Howell (4.1 scoreless innings), righty Grant Balfour (3.1) and submariner right-hander Chad Bradford (3) lead the way. Bradford hasn’t allowed a run in 19 career postseason appearances with the White Sox, A’s, Red Sox, Mets and Rays.

BY THE WAY

Jonathan Papelbon hasn’t allowed a run in his postseason career over 19 2/3 innings.

Here are the lowest career ERAs among pitchers logging at least 19 innings in the playoffs:

• 0.00 ERA: John Rocker, Braves Indians; 20.2 innings, two runs (zero earned)
• 0.00 ERA: Joe Niekro, Astros/Twins; 20 innings, zero runs
• 0.00 ERA: Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox: 19.2 innings, zero runs
• 0.35 ERA: Dave Dravecky, Padres/Giants: 25.2 innings, one run (one earned)
• 0.44 ERA: Ken Dayley, Cardinals: 20.1 innings, one run (one earned)
• 0.77 ERA: Mariano Rivera, Yankees; 117.1 innings, 12 runs (10 earned)

In addition, Papelbon has permitted just nine hits.

BOSTON TO SUE PHILADELPHIA

Celtics fans claim that the Phillies fans stole their “Beat L.A.” chant.

THE WORST PROGNOSTICATOR ON THE PLANET

I’m going with the Rays (in 6) against the Dodgers (in 6) – I urge you, I implore you, bet against me.

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com (www.Billy-Ball.com) and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide.

Matsuzaka’s Approach

Daisuke Matsuzaka gets a lot of criticism for throwing too many pitches and not going after hitters. But you know what? That’s one of strengths – he pitches around danger. His approach is to get ahead of hitters with strike one, then play upon their patience, or impatience, by using a variety of pitches in and out of the strike zone.

Matsuzaka’s approach Friday night against the Rays will be similar. He (along with catcher Jason Varitek) will look to accurately identify each opposing batter’s “danger zone” and stay away from that zone. A batter’s danger zone is the area of (and sometimes off of) the plate where he does the most damage.

Tampa Bay’s Approach

Matsuzaka’s best games have been when he’s been able to establish first pitch strikes with his fastball. Rays Manager Joe Maddon should be more inclined than normal to let his hitters loose on the first pitch. If they take that first pitch strike, they won’t see many good pitches to hit thereafter.

One of the Rays’ biggest strengths this year was the running game. But don’t expect to see the Rays’ normal gusto on the base pads tonight. In Japan pitchers are taught to keep their release times to the plate at around 1.20 seconds compared to an MLB average of 1.30, and Matsuzaka is no exception. So expect more hit and runs to get the Rays running game into play.

If and when the Rays do steal, expect them to do so on middle counts (1-1, 2-1 and 2-2), as Matsuzaka likely will start off at bats with a fastball. Also, the Rays will be more likely to steal the second time through the batting order. Pitchers like to establish the fastball the first time through the order, then bring in more breaking pitches the second and third times.

Here are 25 points that will lead me to a wrong pick:

1. IGNORE THE DODGERS NUMBERS THIS SEASON

The Dodgers now are not the same team as the Dodgers then.

• SS Rafael Furcal (.357, 5 HRs, 16 RBIs in 143 at-bats; missed most of season with back injury)
• LF Manny Ramirez (.396, 17, 53 in 53 games with Dodgers after July 31 trade from Boston; .332, 37, 121 overall)
• 3B Casey Blake (.251, 10, 23 in 59 games with Dodgers after July 26 trade from Cleveland; .274, 21, 81 overall)

2. DON’T UNDERESTIMATE THE FURCAL EFFECT

Beyond Manny and Casey Blake, the L.A. guys have Rafael Furcal back on the field after back surgery. When Furcal went out in early May, he was hitting .366 with an on-base percentage of .448 and the Dodgers were 18-14, having just won nine of 10. He returned for the final week of the regular season, then started all three games of the NLDS, hitting .333 while getting on base in seven of his 15 plate appearances. The difference between life with and without Furcal so far doesn’t appear to be huge. The Dodgers are 22-16, including the first-round series with the Cubs, when Furcal is in the starting lineup as opposed to 65-62 when he isn’t. Furcal is 0-for-8 lifetime against Lidge.

3. MANNY AT WORK

Manny Ramirez was 5-for-10 against the Cubs and added two homers to increase his postseason career total to 26. Lifetime against Brett Myers, Ramirez is 3-for-19 with five strikeouts and eight RBI. Against Jamie Moyer, Ramirez has 10 home runs and a .340 average in 53 at-bats.

4. HOWEVER…

Manny hit just .240 with 1 HR in eight games against the Phillies in August (including 2-for-14 at Citizens Bank Park). In 14 games in Philadelphia, Ramirez has hit .155 (nine for 58) with three home runs and nine runs batted in. His career on-base percentage is only .219. Over the last three seasons, Ramirez’s .121 average (four for 33) at Citizens Bank Park is second-worst among non-pitchers with a minimum of 30 at-bats. Ramirez hasn’t had a problem hitting against the Phillies outside of Philadelphia (17 for 37, .459 average).

5. INFIELDERS WHO HIT

Dodgers infielders hit a combined .266; the Phils infielders hit .265. But the Phillies infielders hit 114 home runs (second in baseball) and drove in 399 runs (first). The Dodgers got 62 home runs (13th) and 305 RBIs (13th) out of those positions.

6. HANGING CHAD?

Dodgers righty Chad Billingsley was 16-10 this season with a 3.14 ERA. The Phillies Burrell, Rollins, Utley and Ryan Howard are all hitting more than .300 lifetime against him.

7. OLD MAN MOYER

Jaime Moyer, 45, has played in the major leagues for 22 seasons with the Cubs, Rangers, Cardinals, Orioles, Red Sox and Mariners before Philadelphia. He has never advanced past the Championship Series. When the Phillies won the World Series in 1980, Moyer skipped school at nearby Souderton High School to attend the victory parade down Broad Street. Moyer should not be confused with Amy Smart who played “Jaime Moyer, the Tasty Coma Wife” on “Scrubs.”

8. TALE OF TWO HOMERS

Chase Utley and Ryan Howard each hit two homers against the Dodgers this season, but overall against L.A., Utley batted .355 while Howard hit .133.

9. MAUI WOWEE

In the NLDS, Shane Victorino hit .357 with four extra-base hits including a grand slam off CC Sabathia. Victorino could have been doing this for the Dodgers instead of the Phils this postseason. LA drafted him, signed him and developed him. Dodgers never added him to their 40-man roster, left him unprotected in three consecutive Rule V drafts, and let him get away in two of them - first to San Diego in 2002 before the Padres returned him in May of the following year, then to the Phillies in 2004. By the by, the Phillies also offered him back to the Dodgers before he ever got out of spring training, for half the $50,000 the Phillies had paid to get him, but the Dodgers turned down the offer. Over his past 17 games, including the division series, Victorino is batting .439 (29 for 66) with eight doubles, four home runs and 11 RBIs.

10. STANDING ON THE LIDGE

Brad Lidge, who is deserving of both Cy Young and MVP votes, was perfect in his first season in Philadelphia, helping the Phillies go 79-0 when leading after eight innings. He had a 1.10 ERA in save situations and a 0.61 ERA in his last 15 appearances.

11. BROXTON ROCKS

The Dodgers’ Jonathan Broxton has been the Dodgers’ closer of late and had 14 saves in 16 chances during Takashi Saito’s absence with a strained ligament in his right elbow. However, he was second in the majors in blown saves this season with eight.

12. AND YET, IT’S ALWAYS SUNNY IN PHILADELPHIA

This is only the Phillies’ 11th postseason appearance in their 126-year history. They’ve won but one World Series title (1980) and lost more games, 10,098, than any franchise in professional sports.

13. PSYCHIC OR PSYCHOTIC?

Springfield, PA resident and psychic Crystal Shadows has said that the Phils will beat L.A. Shadows advised that the opener of the series with the Dodgers “will not be a boring game,” and that she sees either a major injury or a game-affecting adjustment. Shadows said Boston will most likely win the American League Championship Series. “The less capable team, Boston, might end up in the World Series,” she said. “If the Phillies play Boston in the World Series, they will win.” “The difference between being psychic and psychotic is whether or not your little voices are right,” she said.

14. THE LOWEDOWN

Against Dodgers right-hander Derek Lowe, Jimmy Rollins is 6-for-20 with two doubles, Pat Burrell is 6-for-19 and Chase Utley is 5-for-14. Lowe is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three career starts against the Phillies, none occurring this year. Overall, he is 4-1 with two saves and a 3.02 ERA in his career against the Phils.

15. HE WANTS TO CELEBRATE WITH MORE SAKE

Hiroki Kuroda, who was 9-10 with a 3.73 ERA, allowed only four hits and two runs with 12 strikeouts in 13 innings against the Phillies.

16. PUT DOWN THE MIKE AND PICK UP THE BAT

In the 1983 NLCS, a best-of-five series which the Phillies won in four games, Gary Matthews Sr. was the series’ Most Valuable Player. Matthews hit Dodgers pitching for a .429 average, three home runs and eight RBIs in four games. Matthews is now 58 and a Phillies broadcaster.

17. HE DOESN’T STAND PAT

Current Phillies Pat Gillick has been GM of four teams, including the Blue Jays, Orioles, Mariners and all have played in the postseason.

18. CHASING A RING

Chase Utley hit in 18 of the Phillies’ last 19 games but batted only .133 against Milwaukee.

19. PHILLIES TOTALS VS. DEREK LOWE:

• Total:.205, 4 HR, 17 RBI in 151 AB
• Chase Utley: 5-for-14 (.357), 0 HR, 1 RBI, 0 K
• Pat Burrell: 6-for-19 (.316), 0 HR, 2 RBI, 3 K
• Jimmy Rollins: 6-for-20 (.300), 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 K
• Matt Stairs: 2-for-15, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 3 K
• Ryan Howard: 2-for-16, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 3 K
• Geoff Jenkins: 2-for-12, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 3 K
• Greg Dobbs: 0-for-9, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 3 K
• Shane Victorino: 1-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI 0 K
• Pedro Feliz: 5-for-23 (.217), 2 HR, 2 RBI, 7 K

20. PHILLIES TOTALS VS. HIROKI KURODA

• Chase Utley: 2-for-6, 0 HR, 1 RBI
• Jayson Werth: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI
• Carlos Ruiz: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI
• REST OF TEAM: 0-for-30, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 12 K, 2 BB

21. PHILLIES TOTALS VS. CHAD BILLINGSLEY

• Total: .290, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 15 K, 69 AB
• Pedro Feliz: 4-for-12, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 3 K
• Chase Utley: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 2 K
• Jimmy Rollins: 3-for-9, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 1 K
• Pat Burrell: 3-for-10, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 2 K
• Ryan Howard: 2-for-6, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 3 K
• Shane Victorino: 1-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 K
• Jayson Werth: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 K
• Carlos Ruiz: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 0 K

22. MANAGER A MANAGER

Charlie Manuel has managed a total of 1,058 games with a record of 574-484, good for a .543 percentage.

Joe Torre has managed a total of 4005 games with a record of 2151-1848, good for a .538 percentage.

23. THE MEN IN BLUE

Mike Reilly, working his ninth LCS, will be the umpire crew chief for the NL championship series and Tim McClelland, working his eighth LCS, was selected as crew chief for the ALCS. Other NL umps: Mike Winters, Gary Cederstrom, Jerry Meals, Ted Barrett and Mike Everitt. Other AL umps: Derryl Cousins, Brian Gorman, Brian O’Nora, Alfonso Marquez and Sam Holbrook.

24. TIM ON MANNY

“It’s extraordinary - the dichotomy between what he was in Boston and what he is in Los Angeles,” jabbering analyst Tim McCarver said. “I mean, talk about wearing out your welcome in a town, and it was a long welcome with the Red Sox. But some of the things he did were simply despicable, despicable - like not playing, refusing to play. Forgetting what knee to limp on. And now it’s washed, it’s gone.”

Not gone in Boston, McCarver said, but he gives Ramirez his complete due for what he’s done in L.A.

“A rejuvenated Manny, I think it would be fair to say,” McCarver said, sitting in the Phillies dugout yesterday. “More than old Manny. Manny’s doing things that even Manny doesn’t do, [like] scoring on a double to right field from first base.”

“It’s a wonderful story in many, many ways, and from Boston’s standpoint, it’s a horrible story, I would imagine, because he could be doing that for Boston,” McCarver said.

25. THE WORST PROGNOSTICATOR ON THE PLANET

I’m going with the Rays (in 6) against the Dodgers (in 6). I urge you, I implore you, bet against me.

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com (www.Billy-Ball.com) and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide.

In the seventh game of a World Series, Yankee manager Casey Stengel sent everyone but the starter to the bullpen. Well, everyone but Whitey Ford, who almost never relieved. When the Braves started knocking around Don Larsen in Game Seven on October 9, 1958, Turley was told to warm up. It mattered not that he had started in 31 of his 33 appearances during the regular season — Turley was the natural choice. At 6’2″ and 215 pounds, he was built to throw hard and throw long. After leading the league in wins (21), winning percentage (.750), complete games (19) and opponents’ batting average (.206) in a Cy Young Award season, he had won Game Five with a shutout and saved Game Six. Moreover, warming up in a hurry was no problem for him. “Before my starts, I would warm up for only 13 minutes — a little more if it was cold, a little less if it was hot,” he says. “I’d throw my fastball, curve and slider, at the end throwing with the same motion and speed as in a game.”

After a few minutes’ warm-up, pitching coach Jim Turner called bullpen catcher Darrell Johnson. “How does he look?” asked Turner. “As good as he was yesterday and the day before,” Johnson said.

Turley began the slow walk to the mound. When he passed Mickey Mantle in center field, Mantle said, “If you get them out and do the job, you deserve the car.” He meant the Corvette given the Series MVP.

Turley had to do the job right away. With the Yankees holding a precarious 2-1 lead in the 3rd, the Braves had runners on first and second and one out. Turley got the dangerous Wes Covington on a weak grounder in front of the plate, catcher Yogi Berra throwing to first while the runners advanced. Then Turley deflected Del Crandall’s grounder to second baseman Gil McDougald, who threw to first ending the inning.

Yielding only one run on Crandall’s game-tying home in the 6th, Turley pitched 6 2/3 innings of two-hit ball and got the 6-2 win on Elston Howard’s run-scoring single and Moose Skowron’s three-run homer in the 8th. The no-windup delivery Turner taught him and Larsen worked almost as well as Larsen’s had in his perfect game the previous fall. Thanks to Turkey’s two wins and one save, the Yankees became the first club since the 1925 Pirates to win a Series after trailing three games to one. When Mantle squeezed Red Schoendienst’s line drive for the last out, Turley’s legs started, as he puts it, to “cave.” But he didn’t need to walk. He had won the car.

And he wasn’t through pitching for the year. Two days later, Turley threw four innings for a Hawaiian team warming up the St. Louis Cardinals before their trip to Japan. Two of his teammates were Lew Burdette and Eddie Mathews of the vanquished Braves. “The scouting report said you had no curve,” said Mathews, victimized twice in Game Seven by Turley hooks. “That’s crazy.”

In a span of six days, Turley had thrown 20 innings in four games. “If you protect your arm, you get hurt,” says Turley, who was named Player of the Year and Pitcher of the Year by The Sporting News and received the Hickok Belt, complete with alligator skin, buckle, four-carat diamond and 26 gem chips, for the professional athlete of the year. “We didn’t get know anything about rotator cuffs and Tommy John surgeries. Johnny Sain” — a teammate of Turley’s who later became a successful pitching coach — “believed you should pitch every day, just as hitters hit every day.”

Turley studied pitchers’ tendencies so well that he could tip off teammates like Mantle by whistling from the dugout to tell the batter that the next pitch would be different from the previous one. His career shortened by two years in the military and a bone-chips operation, Turley retired after the 1963 season with a 101-85 record and a 3.64 ERA and spent a year as Red Sox pitching coach. Almost immediately, he started making six figures selling securities. Segueing into mutual funds and insurance, he and six partners formed the Primerica Financial Services company that popularized term life insurance and went through mergers and acquisitions with companies like Beneficial Finance, Travelers, Solomon Smith Barney and Citigroup.

Turley retired in 2000 as Primerica’s senior national sales director and was bought out by his secretary and one of his three sons. A millionaire dividing his time between his winter home on the beach at Marco Island, Florida, and summer home in the mountains at Big Canoe, Georgia, Turley, 78, enjoys a leisure life of memorabilia shows, golf tournaments, baseball reunions, speaking engagements and family. “I didn’t make my money pitching baseballs,” he says with a chuckle.

(This is adapted from “Walk-offs, Last Licks and Final Outs: Baseball’s Grand (and Not So Grand) Finales” by Bill Chuck and Jim Kaplan (ATCA Sports, 2008)

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com (www.Billy-Ball.com) and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide.

John Paciorek: Red Sox Have the Mystique

For the Los Angeles Angels to have lost the ALDS to the Red Sox on a botched suicide squeeze is evidence of how much of a mental game baseball is. All season long what defined the Angels as the best team in baseball was their seemingly uncanny ability to perform the little things (fundamentals) to perfection when most needed. The pressure of having to do it constantly is what finally gets into the mind of just about every ballplayer whose turn it is to repeat the feat in crucial situations. Without discrediting a great team like the Angels and their consistent performers, it was bound to happen to mere humans.

If it could happen to an experienced team like the Angels, I dare to think that it could very likely happen to the Rays. I hope it doesn’t, but unless the Rays’ inexperienced players have some kind of providential backing to go along with their superbly adroit manager, coaching staff and finely knit team-cohesiveness, I might assume that the Red Sox would have the playoff composure as their advantage to succeed. The Rays have the talent and momentum; the Red Sox have the Mystique.

Paul Catalano: Rays in Seven

Back on July 16th, I wrote an article for Dugout Central telling everyone that the Rays were a good team. This was during the All-Star break and the Rays had just lost seven in a row heading into the Midseason Classic. A lot of people felt reality was catching up to the Rays, that the party was over. I felt that they were for real.

To that statement, I hold.

Put simply, they can pitch, they can hit, they are athletic and they play sound baseball. Their 3.82 ERA is third in baseball, and their 52 saves are second. They have the most steals in baseball. And if that isn’t enough, they can keep up with the Red Sox in home runs (Tampa has 180, Red Sox 173) and walks (Tampa has 626 in 5,541 ABs; Boston has 646 in 5,596 ABs.)

Boston is, of course, scary. They have some tough pitchers in Matsuzaka and Lester. Jason Bay is underrated and Papelbon is a force in the 9th inning. However, they are hurting a little. And frankly, I think the Rays can run on Boston. Possibly most importantly, with the Rays winning home field advantage, they get to open in their house, where they have been nearly impossible to beat.

If this article sounds a lot like the July 16th one, it’s because it is. Then, like now, I believe the Rays are the team to beat. And I think their Cinderella story will last a little longer into October.

Rays in 7.

Chuck Johnson: Red Sox in Six

Despite losing the season series (8-10) with the Rays, the Red Sox outscored Tampa for the season by 20 runs (87-67). Only two of the Rays victories were by three runs or more, and the Rays starters picked up only three of the 10 wins. James Shields, who was 2-2 against the Sox during the season, was the only starter with more than two decisions against Boston.

Boston was 7-2 at Fenway and 1-8 in Tampa, so the home team has a decided advantage. Tampa’s two wins in Boston were nail-biters, one coming on a two-run rally against Jonathan Papelbon in the ninth inning, the other in 14 innings. The Red Sox, on the other hand, despite their 1-8 road record, managed to keep the games close in Tampa, getting blown out (more than three runs) just once.

I don’t see the loss of Mike Lowell having much impact on the outcome, as his injury prevented him from being effective on both sides of the ball. Kevin Youkilis at third with Sean Casey at first, or a Lowrie/Youkilis combination won’t harm the Sox much.

As has been the case all year, the bullpens will have a significant impact on the outcome of the series. I see Boston as being more capable of winning on the road than Tampa, especially in close games. The Sox take the series in six.

OVERALL RECORDS

• Tampa Bay Rays (97-65)
• Boston Red Sox (95-67)
• Philadelphia Phillies (92-70)
• Los Angeles Dodgers (84-78)

HOME RECORDS

• Tampa Bay Rays (57-24)
• Boston Red Sox (56-25)
• Philadelphia Phillies (48-33)
• Los Angeles Dodgers (48-33)

The Dodgers were 23-9 at Dodger Stadium after the All-Star break for the best home record in baseball.

AWAY RECORDS

• Philadelphia Phillies (44-37)
• Tampa Bay Rays (40-41)
• Boston Red Sox (39-42)
• Los Angeles Dodgers (36-45)

ONE RUN GAMES

• Tampa Bay Rays (29-18)
• Philadelphia Phillies (27-23)
• Boston Red Sox (22-23)
• Los Angeles Dodgers (19-24)

EXTRA INNING GAMES

• Tampa Bay Rays (10-6)
• Boston Red Sox (8-3)
• Philadelphia Phillies (6-7)
• Los Angeles Dodgers (6-12)

LAST 30 GAMES OF THE REGULAR SEASON

• Los Angeles Dodgers (19-11)
• Philadelphia Phillies (19-11)
• Boston Red Sox (18-12)
• Tampa Bay Rays (16-14)

SCORING

• Philadelphia scored 799 runs and allowed 680 runs.
• Tampa Bay scored 774 runs and allowed 671 runs.
• Boston scored 845 runs and allowed 694 runs.
• Los Angeles scored 700 runs and allowed 648 runs.

SCORING BY INNING

	Tampa	Tampa	Boston	Boston	Philly	Philly	L.A.	L.A.
Inning	Scored	Against	Scored	Against	Scored	Against	Scored	Against
1st	71	83	117	78	109	113	121	97
2nd	79	72	83	76	71	48	61	58
3rd	95	86	103	86	86	90	78	79
4th	90	93	98	85	92	93	84	70
5th	98	81	107	81	87	67	86	88
6th	85	53	81	86	123	76	73	52
7th	89	44	82	82	75	51	78	82
8th	96	85	114	66	91	78	53	59
9th	50	58	44	48	55	53	58	40
Extras	21	16	66	6	10	11	8	23

RUNNERS IN SCORING POSITION

• Red Sox: .280
• Phillies: .263
• Dodgers: .253
• Rays: .246

RUNNERS IN SCORING POSITION, 2 OUTS

• Red Sox: .246
• Dodgers: .240
• Phillies: .237
• Rays: .232

HOMERS – SEASON

• Phillies: 214
• Rays: 180
• Red Sox: 173
• Dodgers: 137

BATTING AVERAGE SEASON

• Red Sox: .280
• Dodgers: .264
• Rays: .260
• Phillies: .255

BATTING AVERAGE IN WINS

• Red Sox: .314
• Dodgers: .300
• Phillies: .294
• Rays: .288

BATTING AVERAGE IN LOSSES

• Red Sox: .228
• Dodgers: .225
• Rays: .218
• Phillies: .202

BATTING AVERAGE FIRST HALF OF THE SEASON

• Red Sox: .282
• Rays: .260
• Phillies: .257
• Dodgers: .253

BATTING AVERAGE SECOND HALF OF THE SEASON

• Dodgers: .279
• Red Sox: .276
• Rays: .261
• Phillies: .252

BATTING AVERAGE HOME

• Red Sox: .292
• Rays: .274
• Dodgers: .266
• Phillies: .262

BATTING AVERAGE AWAY

• Red Sox: .268
• Dodgers: .263
• Phillies: .249
• Rays: .248

ERA – SEASON

• Dodgers: 3.68
• Rays: 3.82
• Phillies: 3.89
• Red Sox: 4.01

The Dodgers ERA in September was 3.15.

ERA – HOME

• Dodgers: 3.01
• Rays: 3.30
• Phillies: 3.67
• Red Sox: 3.78

ERA - AWAY

• Phillies: 4.13
• Red Sox: 4.26
• Rays: 4.34
• Dodgers: 4.40

ERA – FIRST HALF

• Dodgers: 3.65
• Rays: 3.79
• Red Sox: 3.80
• Phillies: 3.90

ERA – SECOND HALF

• Dodgers: 3.73
• Rays: 3.85
• Phillies: 3.88
• Red Sox: 4.33

ERA – STARTERS

• Dodgers: 3.87
• Rays: 3.95
• Red Sox: 4.02
• Phillies: 4.23

ERA – RELIEVERS

• Phillies: 3.22
• Dodgers: 3.34
• Rays: 3.55
• Red Sox: 4.00

ALL-TIME (SINCE 1901)

• Red Sox versus Rays: 119 - 68.
• Dodgers versus Phillies: 1048 - 817

THIS SEASON

Rays – 10-8

2008-04-25	BOS @TBR	L 4-5 (11)	S Dohmann	M Timlin
2008-04-26	BOS @TBR	L 1-2	S Dohmann	C Buchholz
2008-04-27	BOS @TBR	L 0-3	J Shields	J Beckett
2008-05-02	@BOS TBR	W 7-3	C Buchholz	E Jackson
2008-05-03	@BOS TBR	W 12-4	J Beckett	J Shields
2008-05-04	@BOS TBR	W 7-3	J Lester	S Kazmir
2008-06-03	@BOS TBR	W 7-4	J Masterson	M Garza
2008-06-04	@BOS TBR	W 5-1	J Beckett	E Jackson
2008-06-05	@BOS TBR	W 7-1	J Lester	J Shields
2008-06-30	BOS @TBR	L 4-5	J Shields	J Masterson
2008-07-01	BOS @TBR	L 1-3	M Garza	T Wakefield
2008-07-02	BOS @TBR	L 6-7	G Glover	C Hansen
2008-09-08	@BOS TBR	W 3-0	J Lester	E Jackson
2008-09-09	@BOS TBR	L 4-5	D Wheeler	J Papelbon
2008-09-10	@BOS TBR	L 2-4 (14)	T Miller	M Timlin
2008-09-15	BOS @TBR	W 13-5	D Matsuzaka	S Kazmir
2008-09-16	BOS @TBR	L 1-2	D Wheeler	J Masterson
2008-09-17	BOS @TBR	L 3-10	G Balfour	T Wakefield

Dodgers/Phils – 4-4

2008-08-11	PHI @LAD	L 6-8	D Lowe	K Kendrick
2008-08-12	PHI @LAD	L 3-4	H Kuo	J Romero
2008-08-13	PHI @LAD	L 6-7	J Broxton	C Condrey
2008-08-14	PHI @LAD	L 1-3	H Kuroda	B Myers
2008-08-22	@PHI LAD	W 8-1	K Kendrick	G Maddux
2008-08-23	@PHI LAD	W 9-2	C Hamels	C Kershaw
2008-08-24	@PHI LAD	W 5-2 (11)	C Durbin	J Beimel
2008-08-25	@PHI LAD	W 5-0	B Myers	C Billingsley

The Phillies outscored Los Angeles 43-27 during the season series.

FROM THE PHILLIES SPIN ROOM

Combined, the Phillies and Dodgers have won 26 National League pennants and seven World Series titles.

REALITY

The Dodgers have won 21 pennants and six World Championships.

This is the fourth time the Phils and Dodgers have met in the NLCS.

The Dodgers won in 1977 and 1978.

Philadelphia won in 1983.

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com (www.Billy-Ball.com) and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide.

Don’t look now traditionalists, but the Rays are winning using the dreaded…bullpen by committee!

<pause for resuscitation>

So perhaps the Rays aren’t completely abandoning the bullpen slotting system that has formed beyond stadium walls over the past two decades, but they are certainly ignoring the dependence on those roles that have dictated managerial decisions during that time.

No, there was no official declaration spurning the established thoughts on bullpen construction as there was in Boston circa 2003. In fact, the Rays had a clear closer in Troy Percival for the better part of the season. But during the times when Percival’s 38-year-old legs have kept him out of commission, unconventional Rays’ manager Joe Maddon has shown a willingness to use any of a number of relievers in the 9th inning role.

His lack of declaration of a true closer is a declaration in and of itself.

Let’s look at the evidence:

1. The Rays had 6 different players this season that recorded 2 or more saves.

2. During their 4 game victory over the White Sox in the ALDS, the wealth was spread out even more.

• In Game 1, the last 2 2/3 IP went to Grant Balfour (2/3 IP), JP Howell (1 IP), and Dan Wheeler (1 IP), who pitched the 9th, recorded the save, and is the closest thing the Rays have to an actual “closer” they have, if only because the definition of an actual “closer” is someone who has recorded saves consistently at some point in his career. Wheeler entered this save opportunity with a 3 run lead.
• In Game 2, the Rays bullpen went Balfour, Howell, and mid-season acquisition Chad Bradford. None gave up a run as they entered with a 1 run lead and held the White Sox in check while the Rays offense extended the lead to 6-2 (the situation when Bradford entered). While not a save situation, more often than not, managers have shown a propensity to their closer even with a 4 run lead just to ensure a victory (as Phillies manager Charlie Manuel used closer Brad Lidge in their clincher in Milwaukee).
• In their game 3 loss to Chicago, Maddon used Bradford, Game 2’s 9th inning man, for the final two innings, despite trailing in the game.
• In the game 4 clincher, Balfour was on the mound for the 8th and 9th innings, having entered in the 6th and 7th earlier in the series.
• Game 1’s “closer” Dan Wheeler did not appear again in the series despite the fact that the Rays never had more than a 4 run lead.

3. Trevor Miller finished more games than any American League lefthander who recorded less than three saves.

4. The Rays had four pitchers who had more than 15 games finished in 2008 (Wheeler, Percival, Miller, and Jason Hammel). There were four other teams that also had four players: Atlanta, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, and Toronto. What’s the difference between the Rays and those teams? A consistent ability to finish games out, as the Rays finished second in Major League Baseball with 52 saves. This group doesn’t include Balfour, the flame-throwing Australian who was not called up to the majors until the end of May, yet finished 12 games and recorded 4 saves of his own. Balfour had virtually equal numbers of appearances in the 6th and 7th innings of games (38) as he did in the 8th and 9th (32). In fact, look at the breakdown of 9th inning appearances for the Rays in 2008:

• Troy Percival – 42
• Dan Wheeler - 26
• Trevor Miller - 19
• Jason Hammel - 13
• J.P. Howell – 10
• Grant Balfour - 10
• Al Reyes - 6
• Chad Bradford – 4 w/TB (in a month and a half)

Compare that with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, a team with perhaps the most solidified closer situation in the majors:

• Francisco Rodriguez – 74
• Scot Shields – 15
• Justin Speier – 14
• Jose Arredondo – 12
• Darren Oliver – 9
• Darren O’Day – 8

While Sabermetricians may cheer the Rays current bullpen set-up, they are missing the fundamental concept behind the Rays’ success. Despite all the previously stated numbers, the Rays are closing by committee, but at the same time, they are not.

If the Rays hold a one-run lead entering the 9th inning, you will likely see Dan Wheeler. But what you will not see is Wheeler forced into a match-up which does not favor him simply because he is the closer.

Situational Example:

Game 3 of the Phillies/Brewers NLDS Series saw the Brewers enter the top of the 9th inning with a 3 run lead – a save situation. Leading off the inning for the Phillies was potential MVP candidate and left-handed hitter Ryan Howard to be followed by the pitcher’s spot, which was ultimately, and not surprisingly, filled by Greg Dobbs, also left-handed, who led the National League in pinch hits. The Brewers designated closer is Salomon Torres who recorded 28 saves this season, but not without bumps in the road (six blown saves on the season). Regardless of the numbers, Torres is clearly the closer by default and not because of his domination in the role.

Howard and Dobbs both singled to start the inning. Would it not have been better to let Manny Parra (who was used frequently out of the pen throughout the series and was available) face Howard and force Charlie Manuel to use someone other than his best weapon off the bench in the pitcher’s spot? It’s not like Frankie Rodriguez was coming out of the bullpen.

As much as you can bet that Wheeler will likely play the closer’s role for the Rays for the remainder of the playoffs, you can also bet that Joe Maddon will not force Wheeler into a situation simply because of that role. If David Ortiz is leading off the top of the 9th, you will likely see J.P. Howell or Trevor Miller for at least one batter’s worth of action.

Maddon, in this aspect, is different than any of the remaining managers left in the playoffs, and is forced to be, as the Rays are the only remaining team without a truly effective closer. Maddon will not make the fundamental mistake that so many managers make when they do not have a dominant closer, which is to let the role determine the strategy rather than the reverse. He has shown that he will let the game dictate the role that his pitchers will play.

Scout: Rays Have the Advantage

Joe Maddon’s boys are playing like men. They’ve been hardened by playing in the AL East and, as Evan Longoria stated last week, “we’re used to winning at the minor league level – we’re used to championship games.”

Looking ahead to the series against the Red Sox, the Rays have an advantage in speed, defense and base running. Prediction: Rays in 6.

Characteristic (1-5)	Boston	Tampa
Lineup balance	4	4
Lineup strategy	5	5
Base running	4	5
Starters	4	4
Bullpen	3	4
Closer	5	3
Defense	4	5
Defense (C, SS, 2B, CF)	4	5
Coaches	5	5
Manager	5	4
Bench (offense)	3	4
Bench (defense)	4	3
Game match-ups	4	4
Total	54	55

I’m in the car last evening around six when the phone it rings. It’s Alex Bok. Alex Bok, who you will hear much more about in regard to baseball at a later date, is my friend and colleague and is held in the same regard by me as I hold www.baseball-reference.com when it comes to excellence in baseball websites. Alex wanted to know if Mrs. Ball and I would like to go to the game at Fenway last night. You know, between the Red Sox and the Angels, with the Sox up two to one in the best of five?

Without a moment’s hesitation … I hesitated.

Of all the seasons, the post-season is my favorite, but it takes a toll on me. Long hours, all-consuming time and effort, physically and psychologically, I wear down and I know I need to pace myself. I’m not whining, I’m not complaining. This is just the reality of having baseball as a religion, and these are the high holy days.

I told Alex I would get right back to him. I started to weigh things in my head and listen to those voices that I hear. Then one voice came through loud and clear, “What are you crazy?!? You have a chance to see the Sox clinch! You’ve never attended a clinching. This is a great game and Dice-K is not pitching. What are you even thinking about?!?”

Internal voices are great, but useless. That voice was from my daughter Jennifer, the 15-year old who it turns out is the only one with an ounce of sense in her head. Maxie and I were off to Fenway.

By 8:15 I was at the ballpark and I did what I always do, I got my one ballpark indulgence – a bag of unsalted peanuts. I know, I know, you’re saying, “This guy is Mr. Excitement,” but for me the perfect game is a program to keep score, a bag o’ nuts, and then to sit in my seat after the national anthem and not get up again until it’s time to leave.

But this was not an ordinary night at the ballpark. I held out my $10 bill to get my huge $4 bag of peanuts and was greeted by “my guy.” While many people (those who choose to be successful in life), seek material goods and wealth. I seek “guys.” Guys don’t have to be male; they just have to be that “inside” person who can make your life special. Along those lines, I always encourage my eldest to treat maitre de’s and bartenders warmly and with courtesy and respect, even more so than other people.

My peanut guy looked at the hand with the money and then followed the arm and greeted me warmly and without a moment’s hesitation “You are such a nice guy and good customer, tonight it’s my treat.”

I was having a good night.

Now, I can tell you about the game, but you can read the details elsewhere. A couple of points:

1. Jon Lester is a monster. He is the ace of the Red Sox staff. As I wrote earlier, the best break the Sox got in this series was the cranky oblique of Josh Beckett. If Beckett had started Game 1, number one, they may have lost that one, and number two, he would have pitched last night. This is a game you wanted to see Lester.

2. John Lackey deserved better. He is a good pitcher and gave his Angels almost everything they could have wanted from their starter.

3. The unspoken difference in this series was the fielding. The Red Sox made plays they shouldn’t have. The Angels didn’t make plays they should have.

4. There is no question in my mind that Angels’ manager Mike Scioscia was the goat. In the top of the 9th, pinch-hitter Kendry Morales doubled and pinch-runner Willits took third on a sacrifice. Erick Aybar took two balls and then missed a bunt attempting a suicide squeeze against Manny Delcarmen. Willits was hung up in between third and home and catcher Jason Varitek ran him down and made a diving tag. When the ball squirted out of Varitek’s glove after he banged his hand on the ground, Angels manager Mike Scioscia argued unsuccessfully to umpire Tim Welke that Willits was safe. I don’t think there ever should have been a bunt attempt. The Sox infield was in and a fly ball gets the job done, as does a hard grounder, particularly since the middle of the diamond was wide open. Delcarmen got 67 air outs this year and 83 ground outs. It wasn’t executed, and that was the game and that was the series and that was the season for the Angels.

5. Scot Shields deserved better. He pitched well and handled the middle of the Boston lineup.

6. Jason Bay has been the difference maker for the Sox this postseason. This team is so deep and many players can have the role of hero, but Bay is up for the challenge. He went 7-for-17 with two doubles, two home runs and five RBI, and he also threw out Torii Hunter trying to stretch a single into a double in Game 3. Bay had two hits in the contest and batted .412 in the four game series. His double off the end of his bat that sliced into the stands last night in the 9th proved to be the set-up that produced the winning run.

7. Jed Lowrie hit .213 in the month of September and was 2-for-10 in the series when he came to bat with two out and Bay on second. He went after Scot Shields’ first pitch and grounded it through the right side of the infield and just beyond the outstretched glove of Angels’ second baseman Howie Kendrick. Right fielder Reggie Willits came up throwing, but Bay beat his throw home, sliding head first across the plate.

8. Then I witnessed my first on-field celebration in person. I will tell you Milwaukee and both sides of Chicago fans, there is nothing like it. The ballpark filled with encouraging cheers for three hours released like a balloon busting and elation just comes spilling out. People are dancing. People are hugging. High fives everywhere. The Red Sox victory songs played as fans of every age sang along in raucous joy.

9. It truly was an amazing night. That is except, for a group of women sitting three rows behind me, who had squealed with delight at every good thing that had happened to the Angels and would wring their hands in despair at each moment of Red Sox success. As Red Sox Nation celebrated, I asked the elated Mrs. Ball to excuse me for a moment and without a moment’s hesitation I went over to this group of women.

I congratulated the Angels wives on their great season and told them that we would probably see them here next year at this time and who knows what the result then would be. One, who had been crying, had held my hand and thanked me and then thanked me again and gave me a big hug. I guess at Fenway last night, I was “her guy.”

I could afford to be in a good and caring mood. After all I write about walkoffs and grand finales and I had just seen a great one. And I had gotten a free bag of peanuts.

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com (www.Billy-Ball.com) and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide.

LDS = League Dismal Series

I will admit it, after the first two games of all four LDS I was rooting for the team down two games to none. And I was, and will be, rooting for the teams down two games to one. I’m sorry Red Sox Nation, I didn’t say I’m not rooting for the Sox to carry on, I am saying that the League Dreadful Series has become, once again, a postseason series devoid of excitement.

I am a chronicler of grand, and not-so-grand, finales, and I can tell you that while there may be some minor excitement in a game, there is none of the true excitement of a great series. Even the Angels/Red Sox Game 3 marathon was exciting merely because it was an extra-inning game. However, the tension was mitigated by the fact that if the Sox won, the sweep would be complete and when the Angels won, the series would continue to simply another flawed match-up in Game 4.

Now let me remind this year’s League Disappointing Series is not that different from last year’s. If you turn your hymnals to http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/ (the best baseball website at any time of the year), you will see that last year, Cleveland defeated the Yankees in four games, three games to one – the only LDS that went past three games. In 2006, two series went to four games, and in 2005, we had two sweeps, one four game set, and one series, the Angels/Yankees, that went the full five games.

Since divisions and the Wild Card came into play in 1995, including the two completed series of this year, there have only been 13 of the 54 series that reached the ultimate game, while 19 series have gone four games, and an inordinate number (22) have been sweeps. That’s too many sweeps for teams that probably were rarely swept during the long, regular season.

Of the sweeps, eight have involved Wild Card teams, four winners, four losers. Of the five-game series, eight have involved Wild Card teams, four winners, four losers. Finally, in the four-game series, 10 have involved Wild Card teams, with seven Wild Card winners, and three losers. Is it just me, or does a 15-11 record for Wild Card teams seem really out of whack? The Wild Card team is the team that enters by virtue of not winning its division but then it wins in the postseason doesn’t make sense, does it?

What to do, what to do, what to do?

Well, once again, I suggest not eliminating the Wild Card, but adding a second one. Those of you familiar with my work know I have suggested this before (and those who know me, know I will continue to suggest it until told otherwise). For those of you who are purists, please understand that the Wild Card has brought the additional level of the parity that have kept teams in the running until late in the season and therefore kept attendance climbing. Wild Cards are good.

Here’s how last week would have transpired in the AL if we had two Wild Cards and employed my postseason program.

Last Monday, the White Sox would have made up their rained out game against the Tigers, enabling them to finish in a tie with Twins for first-place in the AL Central.

Tuesday, the Twins, by virtue of having won the season series against the White Sox, 10 games to nine, would have hosted a playoff game. The coin flip as a determinant would have been eliminated.

The winner of that game would have moved on, and the loser would have gone home because the loser did not have as good a record as the team who would be the second Wild Card, in this case, the New York Yankees.

Wednesday, the Boston Red Sox, with the best Wild Card record, would have hosted the New York Yankees, the Wild Card team with the second best record, for a one-game play-in. In the process, I would eliminate the rule that Wild Card teams don’t play a team in their division in the first round.

In this one game play-in, the Red Sox and the Yankees would be forced to play as if this were a Game 7. Jon Lester would have pitched this game for the Sox and perhaps Mike Mussina, having missed his opportunity to pick up his 20th win of the season in the final game in order to save him to pitch in this play-in. On the other hand, had the New Yorkers not won their final game, they would have been forced into a playoff with the loser of the Chicago/Minnesota game because they would have been tied for the Wild Card slot at the end of the season. Just to let you know, in the NL, the Brewers would have hosted the Mets for the play-in

Yes, I know it sounds complex, but that’s how it should be. The Wild Card team will end up at a significant disadvantage having to use or save their ace, having to play an extra game, and perhaps having to travel to play that game. Meanwhile, the division leaders get an extra day to rest and get their rotation in better order to ready themselves for the LDS. The point here is that they are hopefully able to accrue a deserved greater advantage over the Wild Card entrant.

For the sake of argument, let’s say the Red Sox and the Brewers each won against their New York competitors setting up the LDS as we have it now with one adjustment. The White Sox would head to Tampa to face the Rays and Red Sox still would fly to LA to play the Angels, but now they wouldn’t have their ace for Game 1 and who knows the status of their bullpen. In the NL, the Brewers would head to Chicago to play the Cubs (remember, I eliminated the rule disallowing the Wild Card playing in their own division) and the Dodgers would head to Philly.

Would these changes provide different results? I’m not sure. What I am sure of is that they would be better for the fans (who would get the tension of more “ultimate” games), better for the networks (greater tension, another game to cover), better for the teams (more teams would stay involved deeper into the season and two more teams have a chance to win it all), and better for baseball in general (more excitement, and definitely more revenue).

I do subscribe to the theorem “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it,” but the current playoff system “is broke” and needs to be fixed. Too many sweeps and one-sided matches and too many equal advantages for the Wild Card teams produce League Dull Series and reduce the engagement of the fans for the League Championship Series. I truly believe I have offered a do-able solution.

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com (www.Billy-Ball.com) and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide.

Josh Beckett is probably injured. Other than his general ineffectiveness Sunday night, here’s what leads us to that conclusion:

1. Beckett has had one of the best curveballs in the Majors, yet he’s not throwing it now as he has in the past. His curve is now coming to the plate on a slant angles and is not nearly as consistent.

2. He’s now throwing a hard slider that resembles a cut-fastball with depth. Buck Martinez (the announcer) calls it a cutter, but cut fastballs don’t go down (depth). It’s now thrown at 90-92 mph. It can be an effective pitch, but he’s only using it off the pitch glove-side. He’s also throwing it in predictable sequences.

So, Beckett has gone away from two pitches he threw successfully during the past few years: his 12-6 curveball and his slider. Why? One would have to assume it’s not the result of a defined change in his pitching plan. After all, you wouldn’t make alterations to a pitcher’s plan during the playoff – unless there was a reason for it. And that reason could very well be an injury.

As far as his mechanics go, Beckett is not staying as tall at the top of his leg kick. His body is humped over more than normal. He’s always been a drop and drive type, but his upper body hasn’t slouched this much before. This could have an effect on his release point, preventing him from throwing his pitches from the same slot as he’s used to.

Makeups and Tiebreakers That Never Happened

The White Sox survived a makeup game and tiebreaker to make it into the playoffs this year. Some teams never got that chance.

Surveying baseball history since 1901, I found nine cases where makeup games that could have changed who played in the postseason were not played, not counting years where the season was shortened. All occurred in the years before World War II. The list:

1901 – The Chicago White Sox finish the season 83-53, 4 games ahead of Boston, who were 79-57. Since they scheduled 140 games then, each team could have played 4 make-up games, which could have lead to a tiebreaker. Boston’s potential makeup games were with Baltimore and Cleveland, while Chicago’s games would have been with Baltimore and Washington; Baltimore had 7 potential makeup games in 1901. There were 8 ties and 11 unplayed games that year in the AL.

1904 – The Boston Americans finished at 95-59, 1.5 games ahead of the New York Highlanders (92-59). The schedule had 154 games starting in 1904, so New York could have made up 3 games (two with Cleveland and one with Philadelphia) and climbed into a tie for first had they won all three. New York actually had 4 ties, three of which were apparently never resolved.

1905 – The Philadelphia Athletics were 92–56 with 6 unplayed games, only 2 games in front of the White Sox at 92-60 with 2 unplayed games, so if they had played it out, the Sox could have finished ahead of Philadelphia. Only one of the makeup games would have been between Philadelphia and Chicago.

1906 – The White Sox again are involved, this time finishing with a 93-58 record, 3 games ahead of New York (90-61). Each had 3 unplayed games and therefore a tie could have resulted if they had played it out. All of the makeup games would have been against other teams.

1907 – This time the Detroit Tigers (92-58) finished 1.5 games ahead of Philadelphia (88-57). Detroit missed 4 games and Philadelphia 9, so the Athletics could have finished as many as 5 games ahead if they had played all their games!

1908 – For the fifth year in a row, the AL had another situation. The Tigers again were the beneficiaries, finishing half a game ahead of Cleveland, 90-63 to 90-64. Furthermore, the White Sox (again) were 1.5 games back at 88-64, so a three-way tie would have been possible. Why didn’t the NL have any tiebreaker opportunities in that five year stretch? Well, first of all, only one pennant race was closer than 9 games. Second, the NL overall had many fewer missed games. Interestingly, the Cubs and Giants actually did tie in 1908 at 98-55 and had to play a makeup game – the one close NL race from 1904 to 1908. In fact the game they needed to make up was the famous Merkle’s Boner game earlier in the season that ended in a tie. They made up the tie game at the end of the season, which the Cubs won, and that lead to their last World Series victory (as everyone in the year 2008 knows).

1915 – The Federal League wasn’t immune to the makeup problem. In 1915, Chicago (86-66) finished even with St. Louis (87-67), but was declared the pennant winner on percentage points. Third-place Pittsburgh was also in the mix at 86-67. Chicago could have been first, tied for first, tied for second or third had all games been made up.

1935 – A long gap to the next case, with Detroit (again) at 93-58 beating out the Yankees (89-60) by 3 games. With 8 makeup games possible, New York could have won.

1938 – For the first (and only) time it happens in the NL. The Cubs (89-63) finish 2 games ahead of the Pirates (86-64), in a situation similar to 1935.

Honorable Mention – In 2000, Seattle (91-71) finished half a game behind Oakland (91-70) in the AL West, but they made the playoffs as the wild card anyway. It didn’t matter since the Yankees beat them both on the way to the AL pennant and, ultimately, a World Series victory.

Dishonorable Mention I – Strike years were especially bad, as might be expected since schedules were shortened haphazardly. In 1972, Detroit (86-70) beat out Boston (85-70) for the AL East crown, as Boston did not get to play the extra game. I don’t think they could actually determine which extra game they needed to play (even if the new bargaining agreement allowed it) since they missed a total of 7 games.

Dishonorable Mention II – In 1981, five different races were suspect due to unequal numbers of games: First half AL West (A’s 37-23 versus Rangers 33-22), first half NL East (Phillies 34-21 versus Cardinals 30-20), first half NL West (Dodgers 36-21 versus Reds 35-21), second half NL East (Expos 30-23 versus Cardinals 29-23) and second half AL West (Royals 30-23 versus A’s 27-22). Of course the Reds and Cardinals were doubly screwed since they both had the best records in their divisions for the entire year – they just couldn’t (or weren’t allowed a chance to) win either half.

Dishonorable Mention III – In 1994, Cincinnati (66-48) beat Houston (66-49) by half a game in the NL Central – not that it mattered since there was no postseason that year due to the strike.

So early in baseball’s history many games were missed or tied and not made up, which often lead to what today would be considered a tarnished pennant. In any event it would have been hard to make up all the games necessary to complete their schedules. Strike years lead to many similar cases, but I imagine that bargaining agreements were hard enough to come by without allowing for possible makeup games. Does anyone know if the current bargaining agreement explicitly discusses makeups?

These days baseball works hard at making up missed games throughout the season so that if such a situation arises, as it did this year, it can be resolved. Even so, this year a rainout of the White Sox makeup game on Monday (which was delayed for more than three hours) could have delayed the start of the playoffs.

Random Thoughts

If, and when, Fox Sports has the guts to move Tim McCarver to the back shelf, Buck Martinez is the man who should be baseball’s lead analyst. Back in the day, when McCarver was more interested in baseball, and less interested in puns, you could learn a lot from Tim. Last night, I learned plenty from Buck. You don’t get to hear his brilliant analysis as much on his morning show on MLB on XM, but I can tell this guy was great last night. Buck and Chip Carey are clearly the “A Team.”

There isn’t a better in-studio analyst than Dennis Eckersley. I watch his semi-regular work on NESN, the Red Sox cable channel, and he is outstanding because he is himself. Working with Ernie Johnson and Cal Ripken, Jr., Eck shows the same flair and guts behind the mike as he did on the mound during his Hall of Fame career.

Curtis Granderson has a great future in television.

After seeing Manny’s homer, I’m convinced he would be a winner on the PGA tour.

How much helium does Tony Gwynn inhale during a broadcast?

Sports Illustrated baseball senior writer Tom Verducci is no Ken Rosenthal, but he is very good and deserves more TV time.

Craig Sager’s horrible dressing style makes me think of the late Lindsey Nelson.

A big BOO to MLB.com for blacking out on-line live video of the games to subscribers.

After 12 hours of baseball coverage yesterday, I can tell you that Frank Caliendo is one very funny guy, but I’m going to get sick of him before the first show comes on.

I was perfect yesterday in my picks – every team that I picked to move on lost.

Firsts

• This is the first time in 102 years that both Chicago teams will be in the postseason.
• After 771 major league games, Jason Bay played in his first postseason game last night and homered.
• The Phillies won their first postseason game since the 1993 World Series against Toronto.
• Brad Lidge picked up his first postseason save since Oct. 16, 2005, with Houston. The next day, he gave up a game-winning three-run homer to the Cardinals’ Albert Pujols in Game 5 of the N.L. Championship Series.
• The Brewers are making their first postseason appearance since 1982, when they won the AL pennant.
• The Dodgers won the first game of the postseason on the road for just the fourth time in their history. Each of the previous three times, the Dodgers reached the World Series (including 1963, when the first game of the postseason was the World Series).
• The White Sox beat three different teams on three consecutive days to make the postseason. That’s a first.

Lasts

• Hopefully, this is the last time that MLB employs a coin toss to determine home field in a playoff. The Twins and White Sox finished 88-74. Instead of using head-to-head records to determine the playoff host, the Twins won the season series 10-8; the league flipped a coin on Sept. 12. The Twins lost the game 1-0.
• The last Philly championship was in 1983 when the NBA’s 76ers won it all. The last Phillies championship was 1980.
• Derek Lowe went 4-0 with a 0.50 earned run average in his last six starts.
• The Phillies ended a streak of four consecutive postseason losses; their last win was Game 5 of the 1993 World Series against the Blue Jays.
• Milwaukee’s last postseason victory was against St. Louis on Oct. 17, 1982, in Game 5 of the World Series.
• Last laughs for Joe Torre, his streak of consecutive seasons making the postseason continued while his former employer’s did not.

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McCain is reminding everyone the Cubs/Dodgers playoff game is on TV tonight and to put country first by watching our national pastime

The Ballparks

• Boston’s Fenway Park opened April 20, 1912.
• Chicago’s Wrigley Field opened on April 20, 1916
• Los Angeles’ Dodger Stadium opened on April 10, 1962.
• Anaheim’s Angel Stadium of Anaheim opened on April 19, 1966.
• Chicago’s U.S. Cellular Field opened on April 18, 1991.
• St. Petersburg’s Tropicana Field hosted their first Rays game on March 31, 1998.
• Milwaukee’s Miller Park opened on March 30, 2001.
• Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park opened April 12, 2004.

Good day, eh? Postseason Canadians

• Jason Bay of Trail, B.C.
• Ryan Dempster of Gibsons, B.C.,
• Rich Harden of Victoria, B.C.
• Russell Martin of Chelsea, Que.
• Matt Stairs of St. John, New Brunswick
• Eric Gagne of Mascouche, Que.

 Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com (www.Billy-Ball.com) and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide. Bill Chuck is available for radio appearances and publication and web writing by contacting bill@billy-ball.com.

Have you ever wondered what’s like to go through the torture of being a Phillies fan? Not more than once you haven’t. But if you have, you’ll get to experience a Phillies game through the eyes of the suffering. Here are my thoughts, as they happened throughout the course of Game 1 of the Phillies-Brewers series.

3:03: TBS has just introduced us to our television crew. John Smoltz is playing part of the obligatory current player improving as a color commentator. Probably a good choice, as he knows the Phillies and the post-season better than anybody. Hopefully he has a great time and decides to stay up there. See, I’m already planning for next year. Welcome to Philadelphia.

3:05: Has there ever been a must-win situation in Game 1 of an NLDS (random tangent – NLDS still doesn’t have the same ring to it that the NLCS does. Here’s a question for fans who were around when the NLCS first came into baseball … how long did it take before that series grew some mystique? How long do I have to wait before the NLDS gives me chills? I digress.)

But think about the situation the Phillies are in this year. Everybody is playing the “we’re not just happy to be here anymore like we were last year” card and is saying all the right things. Even the Philly media is being creepily optimistic. But a loss in Game 1 will turn all that around very quickly.

3:08: Hard to believe a playoff team has Mike Cameron as its leadoff hitter. That was a solid one-year risk taken by GM Doug Melvin and has worked out well, but Cameron is not a leadoff hitter.

3:09: Mike Cameron just chased ball four. Proceeds to strike out swinging at ball 5. That worked out well.

3:12: The change-up looks good so far (knock on wood). Two K’s in the first, both on change-ups. And we just got our first Frank TV commercial. You can’t win ‘em all.

3:15: I don’t know what to feel about facing Gallardo. Remember how good he was last year? At least he’s right handed.

3:17: Great play by Rickie Weeks. I hope that’s not the way things fall this series.

3:20: 3 up 3 down. I need a beer. It’s Miller Time. Wait, I didn’t plan this out very well. All I have in the fridge is Miller Lite. Is that bad? Am I karmatically supporting the Brewers? Should I be drinking Bud Lite instead? No, that’s the Cardinals. What beer are the Phillies? I’m thinking PABST seems appropriate.

3:22: Frank TV Commercial #2. Have you seen that show? The commercials are hilarious, but I think Frank is only funny in 30 second intervals. He should just do President Bush. That’s worth the price of admission. The President should just let Frank do his public addresses for the remaining month in the White House. What does he have to lose, a couple of points in the approval ratings? It can only help his cause in the end.

3:24: Cole just tied up Prince Fielder with a nasty deuce. That’s one time through the tough part of the Milwaukee order unscathed. I’m only really worried about Braun and Fielder against Cole. Maybe JJ Hardy to a certain extent, but there’s a big drop off there.

3:25: Nice play by Chase Utley thanks to great positioning from the dugout. Must be that Vaseline Men’s Lotion he’s peddling these days.

3:29: Gallardo wanted no part of Ryan Howard in that at-bat. He did know the book on him though – he just wouldn’t throw anything close. Back-door breaking balls. Howard can’t hit them. Shhh, don’t tell anybody though.

3:31: Gallardo walks Victorino, his second walk given up in the inning. But there’s only one baserunner. Thanks Pat Burrell for having the speed of a fat-kid in gym class. Oh well, Pedro Feliz would have done the same thing two hitters later if there hadn’t been two outs already. There are a lot of double plays to be had in the Phillie lineup.

3:35: Does TBS realize that they can charge more for advertising spots during playoff games? Over half the commercials are for themselves, and half of those are for their own postseason coverage, which means a quarter of the commercials you are going to see are for something you’re already watching. If you’re home on a Wednesday afternoon watching baseball like I am, chances are you know what channel to find it on. Plus their baseball commercials have Bon Jovi in them. What, they couldn’t get Billy Idol?

3:43: Did that just say that Carlos Ruiz’s nickname is “Cooch?” Can they say that on TV? Who’s picking nicknames out for the Phillies, Hugh Hefner?

3:44: Cooch got a base hit. Now Hamels can bunt.

3:44: There’s the first mistake of the game. Dropped ball at first by Rickie Weeks. On the Hamels bunt. That’s the first real opportunity for either team. The Phillies have two on and nobody out and the top of the order up.

3:45: Rollins popped out without moving the runners or doing anything else productive…on the first pitch. Welcome to life as a Phillies fan. I need a second beer.

3:48: Jayson Werth strikes out on a ball at his eyes. This is the Phillies biggest problem this season. Too many free swingers, not enough productive at-bats. It leads to their inconsistency. Between all the strikeouts and the unproductive at-bats, the Phillies are by far the streakiest offensive team in the National League. They had back-to-back 20-run games earlier this season, but they went through a stretch in August when I could have held them to one run. They are horribly inconsistent.

3:51: The Phillies strike first! Mike Cameron completely misplayed that ball, and still should have had it. He took a terrible route towards that Chase Utley line drive. He made a hell of a play just to even get glove on it.

3:58: Gallardo walks in a run. Phillies up 3-0.

4:00: Feliz flies out to deep CF. That could have been a lot better, but sitting at 3-0, I’m feeling pretty good, especially after last year’s 0-11 8K performance combined by Utley, Howard, Burrell, which TBS so graciously reminded me of a few minutes ago. It would have been nice if the Phillies had gotten it on their own rather than an error at first and a terrible route in center, but I’ll take it. You’ve officially been introduced to back-handed optimism. It’s a wonderfully gut-wrenching place.

4:05: We’re entering trip two through the heart of the order. Once again, the first half of it (Braun) comes up with two outs and no one on. That’s a good way to go about it. Braun flies out to left.

The Brewers look very similar to the way the Phillies did last year. Very excited. Over anxious. Silghtly tense. Already pressing. Milwaukee fans, I understand the feeling you currently have in your stomach.

4:08: “Cooch” is leading off again. He bunts a pop-up back to Gallardo. Nice at-bat Cooch.

4:11: A base hit by Rollins but no other damage. A quick inning. The Phillies need to be careful not to sit back on their lead just because Hamels is on the mound. That’s the reason he only had 14 wins this season. Next inning is huge for the Phillies, heart of the order coming up.

4:17: Hamels made Fielder look really bad again, this time on a change-up. That’s two K’s on two different filthy pitches (the first one was on a curveball) and Fielder has looked terrible on both.

4:21: Joe Simpson just compared Corey Hart to Jayson Werth. He says they are similar type players. Um, they’re both tall and play right field and…well, that’s about it. Otherwise they could not be more different. Werth is near the top of the league in pitches seen per at-bat. Corey Hart would swing at your mother if she came near him. Hart doesn’t look athletic at anything he does. Werth looks amazingly fluid for a player of his height. They are nothing alike, other than being tall.

4:21: Hart breaks up Hamels perfect game with a single to Werth. Amazing. That’s exactly what the Phillies needed. Giving up the hit might have even helped. Maybe the rest of the Phillies will stop just watching the game and start hitting again.

4:25: I just received a phone call from a friend telling me that she has four tickets to game 5 of the NLDS and two are mine if I want them! I’m torn, I’ve never been to a playoff game, but I don’t want the Phillies to lose two games and need a game 5. Plus, if my calculations are correct, Sabathia would be pitching that game on full rest. That’s not a good situation. I’m torn. Stay tuned…

4:26: Great move by Dale Sveum bringing in Mitch Stetter, a funky, side-arm, lefty only kind of guy, to face Utley and Howard. This is a brilliant move, as he will make both hitters look very uncomfortable, and will get the Brewers through this inning. These funky lefty pitcher guys are the bane of the Phillies existence. Just ask Pedro Feliciano if he feels safe walking through center-city Philly and you’ll understand.

4:29: Case and point. A weak groundball to short by Utley and Howard flails at a pitch that would have rolled into the Brewers dugout if they didn’t have a catcher. Stetter’s night is over. Great move by Sveum. He essentially eliminated the Phillies two best hitters one complete time through the order.

4:35: My wife just asked me the obligatory “Is Cole Hamels married?” question. He is, and of course I know that he is married to the chick from Survivor who posed in Playboy, so I naturally just Googled “Cole Hamels’ Wife” to prove it to her.

4:41: Hamels is in trouble for the first time. Trouble being a relative term. He gave up a dinker to Craig Counsell, then walked Mike Cameron after a full count. Bill Hall is up. Luckily, he batted .225 this season. Got him. Not out of the woods yet. Ryan Braun has his first chance to do some damage.

4:43: Braun pops up a changeup to Jimmy Rollins. Inning over. Facing the Brewers offense is like playing that guy in Monopoly whose whole strategy is to get Boardwalk and Park Place, and trades all his other properties in order to get those two. If you land on one of those two spots, he wins, but otherwise, there’s nothing but $12 fees here and there. As long as you have a stack of ones, you can beat him. That’s the Brewers offense. There’s Braun and Fielder, but the rest of the time, I’m not even worried. And I’m a Phillies fan. That’s all we do is worry.

4:54: Phillies Manager Charlie Manuel has what ought to be an easy decision coming up next inning, but he’s likely to get it wrong. Hamels is set to lead off the bottom of the 7th. Will Charlie let him hit? Probably not because Manuel is like a robot computer who enters a situation and spits out a result. It’s the 7th inning and the pitcher is coming up? Oh of course, pinch hit. Just forget about the fact that he’s only thrown 90 pitches, given up only two hits, and one walk, and only one ball hit hard all night. Let’s bring in a reliever. If he sends up Eric Bruntlett I’m going to lose it.

4:58: Phew. He’s going to let him hit. And the crowd loves it. They’re getting back into the game, despite the rain, which killed a lot of the intensity and towel waiving.

5:04 Carlos (not to be confused with Charlie) Villanueva just made Jimmy Rollins and Jayson Werth look really bad. He’s retired seven straight hitters, and looked good doing it. The Phillies also look like they’re sitting on Hamels’ lead. Could be a recipe for disaster.

5:05: That’s the 97th Frank TV commercial. Awful, just awful. They don’t even tell you anything about the show. Wouldn’t they be better off just having Caliendo up in the booth, doing John Madden the entire game? Now that would be entertaining.

5:10: Three up, 3 down for Hamels in the 8th. He’s at 101 pitches. I’m ok either way if Charlie takes him out leaves him in. You can’t go wrong. As a fan, I hope he stays in, but that doesn’t mean it’s the right decision. That’s just getting caught up in the game. He’s made it look effortless though. I’d have to let him finish what he started. One base runner, and Lidge gets loose.

5:13: Ok, last chance for some insurance. Utley, Howard, Burrell. Time to get it done.

5:18: After getting Utley on a routine ground ball, Manny Parra wants no part of Howard. Can you blame him? Eric Bruntlett is on deck. I hate the move that Robot Charlie makes every game when he takes Pat Burrell out for defensive help. It’s not that it’s a bad idea, but he does it too early. Would you not have traded one more inning of Pat Burrell in LF for the top of the 8th in order to have him hitting in place of Bruntlett? It’s a no brainer. Robot Charlie is programmed to take Burrell out as soon as the scoreboard gets to that last third. Ugh.

5:19: Bruntlett hits an 11-hopper up the middle that Hardy has to dive for but kicks off his glove. The Phillies get a break and Robot Charlie’s lack of thinking outside the box goes unscathed.

5:20 We get our first shot of Brad Lidge warming up. Like I said, I would leave Hamels in, but it’s not a bad move going with Lidge. But them Smoltz makes a good point: If all things are equal, why give the Brewers a look at Lidge? The Brewers have the top of the order coming up in the 9th? Why let them see your closer? He’s going to pitch eventually. Why give them an extra look at him when you have a three run lead and your pitcher is sleepwalking through a 2-hitter. That’s the planning ahead you want from your manager. Unfortunately, it’s coming from the broadcast booth. Manuel is busy scratching himself.

Note: I like Charlie. I think he’s a good hitting coach and a good fit for this team that really just needs someone to fill out the lineup card. It’s now a veteran team. Terry Francona would be perfect for this team. Manuel is the same kind of “player’s manager,” just without a strategic bone in his body.

5:27: Pesky Craig Counsell makes a nice play to save two runs on a Pedro Feliz broken bat bloop. A nice play.

I’m convinced that Counsell only still has a job because of his goofy batting stance. If it weren’t for that, he’d have been out of the majors five years ago. How many years in a row can you get out of .250, no power and no plate discipline? Usually not that many because he doesn’t get that many opportunities. But Counsell does. It can’t just be because he can play all three infield positions. There are a ton of guys who can do that and they can all hit better than Counsell. I’m telling you, it’s the stance.

5:31: Ok, Lidge is in. I’m ok. Relatively speaking. Good to see the stadium going nuts. The whole city is excited about a post-season win (which would be the first in 15 years in case you were watching at work and had to mute the game, preventing you from hearing the TBS announcers remind me of it 73 times in the past inning).

5:33: Dirty slider. Thanks for playing Mike Cameron.

5:34: Ray Durham squares up on one. He was a nice pick up by Doug Melvin. Low risk, some reward. They got him for nothing and he’s a veteran with experience. Now the Brewers have a base runner as I pass “Go To Jail” and near Boardwalk and Park Place.

5:35: Uh-ho. I just rolled and landed on Park Place. Braun hits a double and Durham scores. Now Fielder is up as the tying run. I hope I don’t role a two.

I’ve got to walk Fielder here. I know it’s the winning run on base, but he’s probably not scoring on a double, so it will take a JJ Hardy home run to score him. Regardless, the possibility of Fielder hitting a home run is better than someone else in the order driving him in against Lidge. Just because I would do it doesn’t make it the right decision, but it is at least worth consideration here.

Worth a thought: Part of the consideration for leaving Hamels in was how bad Braun and Fielder looked against him. It wasn’t like they were right on him. I’d sure rather have Hamels throwing this pitch than Lidge.

5:42: Lidge blew Fielder away. It was a battle, but he challenged him. You’ve got to respect that. I don’t know that I would have done it, but it worked. That’s the nice thing about having a great closer.

5:47 Wild pitch off Cooch’s chest. Tying run in scoring position. I can’t breathe. It’s only game 1…It’s only game 1…

5:48 Pure Heat! He blew him away. First playoff win since I was 10. This is ridiculous. I’m not going to make it through October at this rate. I’m a 12-10 game away from having a heart attack.

Well that was closer than it should have been, but a win is a win. After last year, I could care less how they got it.

I would like to have seen them hit a little better. If they hit like that tomorrow against Sabathia, they’re going to get 2-hit. Either way, that was the closest thing you could have to a must win game 1, and they won it. Philadelphia doesn’t know what to do with itself. I need a cheese steak.

The Whisnant Ratings: Post-season predictions

Following up on our final regular season Whisnant ratings, we can now turn our attention to predicting the playoffs. All but one of the four methods used in the ratings calculates the probability of winning either directly or indirectly through the Pythagenpat formula, so we can use them to assign probabilities of winning games in the playoffs. None of the ratings take into account pitching match-ups, so it’s not an ideal method, but it does serve as a predictive baseline.

The three Whisnant rating systems that can calculate a winning percentage are:

W/L, which uses only wins and losses

RS/RA, which uses runs scored and runs allowed

RC, which uses Runs Created

Each system accounts for schedule strength and has a home field advantage factor. Both the RS/RA and RC system have a park factor as well, although this makes only a small change to the win probabilities.

For example, Anaheim initially hosts Boston in their division series, which will follow the home-and-away pattern AABBA. If p is the probability that Anaheim beats Boston at home, and q is the probability that Boston beats Anaheim at home, then the probability that Anaheim sweeps is p*p*(1-q) and the probability that Boston sweeps is (1-p)*(1-p)*q. The corresponding probabilities for other series results (3-1, 3-2) can also be calculated, although they are lengthier expressions. All the rating systems incorporate a home field advantage, so that must be taken into account; since the home field advantage is positive, p+q will be greater than 1.

Even for evenly matched teams, for which p = q, when there is a positive home field advantage (in which case p and q are greater than 0.5) the initial home team is a slight favorite. (Home field advantage here means the home field advantage calculated in the ratings, not who gets to host the first game.) For example, if p = q = .53 (about the home field advantage in the W/L and RS/RA methods), then the initial home team wins the best-of-five series 51.1% of the time. The home field advantage for equal teams in the RC method is less, with p = q = .52. So we see that getting to start a series in your home park helps, but not by a huge factor, at least in principle. Historically the initial home team in a division series may win more than that, but most of that is probably due to the fact that they are the better team to begin with.

In the example above for Anaheim and Boston, p = .535 (53.5%) and q = .524 (52.4%) using the W/L method, so the teams are fairly evenly matched, with Anaheim a slight favorite at home and Boston even a lesser favorite at Fenway. At the other extreme, in the RC method, p = .411 (41.1%) and q = .639 (63.9%), i.e., Boston is favored to win both at home and on the road.

The division series probabilities for all four match-ups:

	Ana	Ana	Ana	Bos	Bos	Bos	Favored
	3-0	3-1	3-2	3-2	3-1	3-0	Team
W/L	14%	18%	20%	18%	19%	11%	Ana 52%
RS/RA	9%	13%	17%	20%	24%	17%	Bos 61%
RC	6%	10%	14%	20%	28%	22%	Bos 70%

	Tam	Tam	Tam	ChW	ChW	ChW	Favored
	3-0	3-1	3-2	3-2	3-1	3-0	Team
W/L	16%	20%	21%	16%	17%	10%	Tam 57%
RS/RA	15%	20%	21%	17%	17%	10%	Tam 56%
RC	17%	21%	22%	15%	16%	9%	Tam 60%

	ChC	ChC	ChC	LAD	LAD	LAD	Favored
	3-0	3-1	3-2	3-2	3-1	3-0	Team
W/L	18%	22%	21%	15%	16%	8%	ChC 61%
RS/RA	22%	25%	21%	14%	12%	6%	ChC 68%
RC	19%	23%	22%	15%	14%	7%	ChC 64%

	Phi	Phi	Phi	Mil	Mil	Mil	Favored
	3-0	3-1	3-2	3-2	3-1	3-0	Team
W/L	14%	18%	20%	18%	19%	11%	Phi 52%
RS/RA	16%	20%	21%	16%	17%	10%	Phi 57%
RC	13%	18%	20%	18%	19%	12%	Phi 51%

We see that when putting more weight on their total offensive and defensive ratings (as RS/RA and RC do), Boston is favored to win over Anaheim. When taking into account only wins and losses, Anaheim comes out the small favorite.

The other three division series have similar predictions in all three methods, although the Phillies and Brewers are close to even using the W/L and RC methods. If the Mets had managed to beat out the Brewers for the wild card and played the Cubs in the division series, the Phillies would have hosted the Dodgers, and the Phillies would have been a narrow 51%-49% favorite using RC. Los Angeles actually is rated slightly better in the RC method, though, and would have been a slight favorite to win this hypothetical series if they were the initial host team. If the Twins had won the AL Central, they would have been underdogs by almost exactly the same amount in the W/L and RS/RA methods, and a bigger underdog, 67%-33%, using RC.

It’s interesting to note that in most cases the underdog has roughly a 10% chance of sweeping a best-of-five series. This shows how easily upsets can occur in a short series. The odds of a sweep (by either team) are approximately cut in half for a best-of-seven series as long as one team is not an overwhelming favorite.

Looking beyond the division series, the W/L ratings predict Anaheim to narrowly beat Tampa Bay 51% to 49% in the ALCS thanks to having home field first, and the Cubs to beat Philadelphia in the NLCS. The Angels then are favored to win the World Series 59% to 41%. Both the RS/RA and RC methods agree that the Red Sox will beat the Cubs in the World Series.

The Cubs-Phillies LCS and the World Series are likely to be the most lopsided.

Finally, can the Cubs beat any AL team in a 7-game series? The W/L method says no (although they would have been only a slight underdog to Minnesota due to not having home field first, had Minnesota made it to the World Series), the RS/RA method says they would be favored over Anaheim 51%-49%, and the RC method says they would be favored over Anaheim 54%-46%. The Cubs would be a small underdog to the White Sox (about 48% to 52% according to all three systems), but would not be nearly as competitive with the Rays or Red Sox.

With two weeks to go we have only one division clinched and oh so many teams clinging to hopes.

AL East

The Rays went 3-6 on their 10-day trip to Toronto, Boston and New York and will carry a one-game lead into their three-game series against the second-place Red Sox beginning tonight in Florida. The Rays have a two game margin in the loss column, so all they have to do is win one of these games to remain in first place. Their magic number to eliminate the Sox is 14 and any combination of five Rays wins or Jays losses or Yankees losses will eliminate those two teams. The Rays are happy to done with NY; they went 7-11 against the Yankees this year. Even if the Rays fall out of first into the Wild Card slot, the likely AL Manager of the Year is Joe Maddon.

Boston is 26-13 since trading Manny Ramirez and is well positioned for the Wild Card slot if they don’t beat out the Rays. Their magic number to eliminate the Twins is eight and Toronto and New York is five. The Red Sox play the Rays and Jays this week.

The Orioles are guaranteed its 11th consecutive losing season but is improving. Baltimore is 36-37 at home, compared to 35-46 last year.

AL Central

The road weary Twins have more to come this week; they have to play four games in Tampa beginning Thursday. They need to hold tough because they come home to face the White Sox for three games at the Metrodome starting next Monday.

The White Sox have to try to make it through every game now without the injured AL MVP candidate Carlos Quentin, Paul Konerko and Joe Crede. They have a magic number of 13 but every game is now a battle. Their next 10 games are on the road. They also face the Twins on the road next week and could have a Sept. 29 makeup game to play if necessary.

Just a passing thought – If Joe Girardi is not to blame and Jim Leyland is not to blame, are GMs Brian Cashman and Dave Dombrowski the ones responsible for the demise of the Yankees and Tigers respectively?

AL West

The Angels just keep winning and need eight more to reach 100 wins.

Larry Stone of the Seattle Times points out that the Mariners are 57-91 with 14 games remaining, meaning their magic number is six. That’s how many Mariners’ victories it would take to ensure they don’t lose 100. But to get there, they’d have to go 6-8 against the Royals (4 games), A’s (6) and Angels (4). That’s a .429 win percentage — 44 points higher than their current .385.

NL East

New York has 14 games left and a tenuous one game lead over the Phils. They have a four-game series beginning tonight in Washington, followed by three in Atlanta next weekend. What makes this race particularly interesting is the fact that the Mets and Phillies are done with head-to-head matches. The Mets do have a four-game series against the Cubs at Shea starting next Monday, but their other games are against the Braves, Nationals and Marlins.

While the Cubs and the Astros were contending with Hurricane Ike, the Brewers were getting decimated by the red-hot Phillies, who are beginning to party like it’s 2007. Peaking at the right time, the Phillies are a season-best 16 games above .500. The Phillies do have a pair of scheduled off days left on their schedule, but the question remains: can they continue to throw their big three with three days rest? The Phils close the season at home with series against Atlanta and Washington, which should make them feel good. “I believe in momentum,” Phils manager Charlie Manuel said. On the other hand, Braves manager Bobby Cox said. “We’re going to help the Mets as much as we can when we play the Phillies six times, so it’s our job to be up for every game and go at it as hard as we can.”

NL Central

Chicago’s victory, combined with Milwaukee’s losses in a day-night doubleheader in Philadelphia, gives the Cubs a seven-game lead over the second-place Brewers in the NL Central. The Cubs’ magic number to clinch the division is seven. The Cubs have the best record in the NL but have lost eight of nine between Aug. 30 and Sept. 9. Zambrano’s no-hitter gives them a three-game winning streak heading into another game against the Astros in Milwaukee this afternoon.

The Brewers are weeping in their beer. It was déjà vu all over again as they were swept in four game set by the Phils (after they were swept by the Cubs last month). At the start of the month, the Brewers had a 5½-game Wild Card lead over the Phillies. Since then, they’ve gone 3-11 and the lead is gone with 12 games to play. They have been outscored this month by a 75-38 margin. As Larry Stone Times writes, “Not that they’re choking, but the Brews just hired a new team physician: Dr. Heimlich.” We’ll see if Milwaukee has any gas left in the tank as they have six games, home-and-home, against the division-leading Cubs, still remaining. If they don’t, Ned Yost may be gone.

The Cardinals trail three teams for the wild card with only 13 games to play. They are five games behind Milwaukee for the fourth playoff spot but would have been down by only two if it had swept the series. The Cardinals went 7-10 against the Pirates this season.

NL West

The Dodgers lost yesterday for only the second time in 14 games and have no games left against contenders on their schedule. In fact, the Dodgers play the Giants six times in their final nine games. The Dodgers are 8-2 in their last 10 games while the Diamondbacks are 2-8. The only good news for Arizona is that six of the last 10 games are against Colorado. The magic number for the Dodgers is 10, but if you really want to know the magic number for the Dodgers it’s 99. That’s the number that Manny Ramirez wears on his back.

IF THE SEASON ENDED TODAY

Just two weeks to go but if the season ended today:

• The White Sox would head to St. Pete to play the Rays.
• The Red Sox would head to Anaheim to play the Angels
• Either LA or Philly would head to Wrigley to play the Cubs
• Either Milwaukee or LA would head to Shea to play the Mets.

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com (www.Billy-Ball.com) and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide. Autographed first editions are available by contacting, Bill@billy-ball.com or order directly from Acta Sports or from your favorite bookstore.

This is the official start of three eye season. You know the time of the baseball season where you start your day with one eye looking at the day’s schedule (and upcoming games), then in the evening, your second eye is watching the action on the field, and before bed, your third eye is watching the scoreboard.

Three eyes, or ay, ay, ay carumba!

The schedule tells us things like: this is the last time the Red Sox visit this Yankee Stadium. It explains that the Republican National Convention will take place next week in Minneapolis and the Twins are homeless. You learn that the Twins have set a goal of at least seven victories on a trip that started in Anaheim, Calif., and will continue to Oakland and Toronto.

Then you think about the rough schedule for Milwaukee. After two games against the Cardinals, the Brewers finish the season by playing the Mets, Phillies and Cubs 13 times in the final 26 games.

Then you realize it’s the Blue Jays who can be the ultimate spoilers as they play the Red Sox (seven times), Yankees (six) and Tampa Bay (six) in the AL East. They also have three against the Minnesota Twins and four with the White Sox.

Then look at the road trip for the first-place Mets, who lead the Phillies by a half-game. After two in Philly, they continue to Florida and Milwaukee – both playoff contenders.

Lots of channel switching watching all of tonight’s action including the Hillary (for or vs.?) Barack from Denver.

Then comes the dilemma of scoreboard watching. This can honestly make you crazy, because your allegiances in each series can literally change day-to-day.

Some games this week are easy to figure out whom to root for. For example, White Sox, Red Sox and Rays fans root for the Seattle Mariners against the Minnesota Twins. In the same vein, Twins, Red Sox and Rays fans root for the Baltimore Orioles against the Chicago White Sox. The weird scoreboard watching event will take place at The Stadium where White Sox, Twins and Rays fans have to do something that is very foreign to them: they have to root for the Yankees as they face the Red Sox. That is truly a test of fan loyalty.

In the National League, every fan of a playoff contender or a pretender with the exception of Cubs fans will be rooting for the Pirates against the Cubbies. Fans of the Diamondbacks are fans of the Nationals tonight as the Dodgers play in Washington. Good luck to you Arizona fans in that series. Dodger fans feel that same sense of desperation as their NL West rival Diamondbacks play in San Diego. Any Padres win is a gift.

Here’s a switch, the Mets fans are rooting for the Braves as they play the Marlins, who refuse to die but are nearing life support. The question becomes: who do the Marlins fans root for when the Mets are playing the Phillies? Now ordinarily the rule of thumb, in cases like this is to root for the trailing team, which in this case would be the Phillies. But first off, these teams are a mere half-game apart and tied in the loss column. Plus, after sweeping the Dodgers, the Philadelphians are hot. In addition, the Marlins trail the Phils by five games in the Wild Card race and as this season progresses it doesn’t look like the Fish can win the division, so I guess, Marlins fans are Mets fans in this series. But, just remember that this conclusion is for tonight only because if the Phils win tonight, they move into first place and the Mets become the team to chase, in which case you then need to root for the Phils. By the way, this convoluted logic holds true for the Brewers and Cardinals and their fans as well as they lead the Phils and Marlins in the Wild Card race.

But what to do, what to do, what to do about the Milwaukee/St. Louis match-up that takes places in Cardinals Land. For Mets, Phillies, and Marlins fans, while you hope that the Cards don’t get back in the race, you need to root for them so that Milwaukee doesn’t pull away.

Then comes this astonishing moment in time … Cubs fans, this is easy, you are rooting for the Cardinals! The Cubs and their fans have to root for the hated Cardinals? That’s like McCain’s team trying to attract Hillary voters. Oh right, that’s taking place too.

You see, at this time of season, your enemies become your friends and your friends become your enemies. You do what you need to do to get elected or to make it to games in October. And if, after explaining your logic, your fellow fans don’t understand, just blame it on your third eye and walk away.

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com (www.Billy-Ball.com) and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide. Autographed first editions are available by contacting, Bill@billy-ball.com or order directly from Acta Sports or from your favorite bookstore.

Kosuke Fukudome

• Outfielder
• Japanese Free Agent

Fukudome is one of the better athletes playing in Japan. He is capable of playing center field and right field. He is a five-tool player capable of hitting in the middle of the batting order or in the number two spot. During the middle of the 2007 season he was hit by a pitch and missed the remainder of the season. A new rule in Japan gives players on the disabled list time served towards their free agency rights, and this makes Fukudome a free agent.

The 30-year old Fukudome is a championship player capable of performing under pressure situations, so this means he should be able to play in bigger markets in MLB. Just like with American-born players, some Japanese players can handle the bigger markets (Hideki Matsui, Daisuke Matsuzaka) while others can’t (Kaz Matsui, Hideki Irabu).

Scouts Rating (The scouts rating evaluates a player’s raw tools on a 20-80 scale. Albert Pujols, for reference, rates a 75.)

• Overall: 62
• Power: 65
• Hit: 55
• Field: 70
• Speed: 60
• Arm: 60

Player Category “GOOD”

2007 Statistics

• 81 games
• .294 BA
• .443 OBP
• 13 HR
• 48 RBIs

Career Statistics

• 1,074 games
• .305 BA
• .397 OBP
• .543 SLG
• 192 HR
• 647 RBIs
• 71 SB

See http://www.japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=1064 for more stats.

Projected MLB Stats

When evaluating the 2007 MLB line-ups, Fukudome could bat fifth in the line-up for 11 of the 30 teams. He projects to the following:

• .265-.285 BA
• .380 OBP
• 20-30 HR
• 80-100 RBIs
• 10 SB

Projections courtesy of iScouts, Inc 2007

God. Family. The Boston Red Sox. The Boston Red Sox are World Champions. I’ve said that before and I’ve thought that before, but I’ve never written that before. It’s pretty fun. THE BOSTON RED SOX ARE WORLD CHAMPIONS! Wow that feels good. Coming off a great playoff run and the second World Series victory in four years, I offer my ten favorite Red Sox playoff games starting with the 1995 ALDS. Within the next few weeks, I will post my top ten favorite regular season games, then favorite players, and then the best Red Sox players of my lifetime.

No game was put on the list solely on principle. For example, I had a tough time going with game three of the 2003 ALDC over game four of the 2004 ALCS. Rather, this list is based on the excitement level after each game. For example, in 2003 I felt Nixon’s homer would propel us to win the series. I can’t honestly say I felt that way in 2004. After that game I thought the Sox had showed character for coming out and battling on the verge of being swept, but not for a second did I think it would spring the Sox on an eight game winning streak. Call me cynical but that’s how I felt. Obviously looking back it is arguably the greatest game in the history of the Red Sox and Robert’s steal is the single biggest play in the history of the organization. But because at the time I felt it was merely a nice win in a series they would inevitably lose, it does not crack my top 10 favorite playoff games.

In any event, here are my picks and the reasons for each pick.

10. 2003 ALDS Game 3 vs. Oakland A’s

The Trot Nixon game. With the game tied in the bottom of the eleventh, the ultimate dirt dog, Trot Nixon, had his biggest hit as a member of the Red Sox, belting a homer to the deepest part of the park and keeping the Sox alive for one more game. The Sox got great starting pitching from Derek Lowe, who went seven innings while allowing only one run, and four scoreless innings of relief from Mike Timlin and Scott Williamson. The game will always be remembered for Nixon’s walk off homer, the first in a playoff game for the Sox since Fisk’s in game six of the 1975 World Series.

10. 1999 ALCS Game 3 vs. New York Yankees

The Battle in Beantown. Pedro vs. The Rocket. This game got an unbelievable amount of hype. This was Pedro in his absolute prime, and it was by far the best pitching season I have ever seen. It was Danny Almonte in Williamsport for an entire season. The Sox were nevertheless overmatched in this series and everyone knew it. Still, we had Pedro and they didn’t, and for that reason Sox fans hyped up this game as much as possible knowing he would blow away the Bronx Bombers. This was also the peak of hatred toward Clemens in Boston. We were disgusted with him (and for good reason). Pedro gave the Sox seven flawless innings, allowing no runs on two hits while striking out twelve and walking just two. Clemens on the other hand got rocked. He gave up five runs on six hits while lasting just two innings. Offensively the Sox were led by five RBIs from fan favorite, John Valentin. The Sox won the battle on that day but without Pedro on the mound they were no match for the Yanks and ultimately lost the war.

9. 2007 ALCS Game 6 vs. Cleveland Indians

After losing three straight following a game one win the Sox had their backs to the wall against the Tribe. However the picture wasn’t as bleak as it may have seemed. With Josh Beckett, the best playoff pitcher of his generation, getting the ball in game five and a pitching and home field advantage for a possible game seven, it was game six that appeared to be the toughest hurdle for the Sox. Considering how dominant the Indians had been through the ALDS, I thought it would be impossible for Fausto Carmona and C.C. Sabathia to throw four bad games. With Fausto getting the ball in game six I feared our season was over. However, a grand slam from the unlikeliest of players, J.D. Drew, set the tone for the Sox and they never looked back. Schilling, one of the best postseason pitchers ever, refused to relinquish that lead and a sixth run third ended the game and the Tribe’s best chance to finish the Sox.

8. 2003 ALDS Game 5 vs. Oakland A’s

Sox fans felt great with Pedro on the hill in this elimination game, but it was close from start to finish. Pedro was not dominant but pitched well enough to win. The Sox got their first lead of the game on a huge three run homer by Manny Ramirez in the sixth. Although the Sox never relinquished the lead they were pushed as hard as a team can be pushed. The Sox overcame a devastating collision between Johnny Damon and Damian Jackson and gave Derrick Lowe the ball and a one run lead heading into the bottom of the ninth with two on and no out. Lowe came through with one of the best saves in Red Sox history culminating in a strikeout of Terrance Long on a 3-2 pitch with the bases loaded. Keep in mind this was pre-2004 and I was completely convinced the Sox were going to lose the game in the ninth. When Lowe struck out Long I was in total shock.

7. 2004 ALCS Game 5 vs. New York Yankees

Is David Ortiz human? That was the question on everyone’s mind following this game. The guy was carrying the team and its fans on his back. He almost single handedly taking over the biggest rivalry in sports on the biggest stage. The feeling I had following game four (that the Sox got a nice moral victory and nothing more) was still at the forefront until Ortiz’s homer in the eighth. After Ortiz’s homer in the eighth inning, the Sox tied the game off Mariano Rivera, the greatest postseason closer of all time. A few hours later Ortiz hit a single up the middle with two outs in the bottom of the fourteenth scoring Johnny Damon to send the series back to New York. Only when Damon crossed the plate did I truly think, “Wow, something is going on here. We can actually win this thing.” Win or lose David Ortiz cemented himself as a postseason hero.

6. 2004 World Series Game 1 vs. St. Louis Cardinals

This was just a crazy game from start to finish. There is something indescribable about seeing your team play in the World Series for the first time. The spectacle seems so much bigger than the actual game. The Sox bats set the tone early and helped them build a big early lead. However, the Sox biggest weakness, their defense, gave the comfortable lead away and the Cards fought all the way back to tie the game at nine heading into the bottom of the eighth. That’s when Mark Bellhorn had his second gigantic home run in three games. As it rang off Pesky’s Pole Joe Buck called it, “The most devastating sound in the world.” For a Sox fan it didn’t get any better than to hear the tone of disgust in Buck’s as the ball left the park.

5. 1999 ALDS Game 5 vs. Cleveland Indians

The Sox battled back from a 2-0 series deficit to force a game five back in Cleveland. Neither starter survived to see the fourth inning, but a recuperating Pedro Martinez came out of the pen after the Sox tied the game at eight in the fourth inning. Pedro pitched the game of his life, going the last six innings and allowing no hits. Sometimes lost in the mix was the unbelievable offensive night from Troy O’Leary. Troy put the Sox in front with a grand slam in the third and put them in front to stay with a three run homer in the seventh. At the time his homer in the seventh was the biggest I had ever seen hit by a Sox player.

4. 2004 ALCS Game 6 vs. New York Yankees

“Heroes are remembered, but legends never die.” ~ Babe Ruth to Benny the Jet in “The Sandlot”

Often times taking life lessons from sports can be overrated. Sports are games that for almost everyone are played for recreation and enjoyment. However, what Curt Shilling did in game six was epic. Sometimes a person has to sacrifice his own needs for the needs of others. Curt Shilling put aside his personal interests and put his health on the line to take the ball for the Sox in game six. Bloody sock aside, Curt Schilling was injured. Not hurt; injured. For the skeptics out there check out his game one start or his 2005 campaign. Mark Bellhorn’s three run homer in the fourth provided Schilling the run support he needed. It was as gutsy and as legendary a performance as one will ever see in a sporting event.

3. 2007 World Series Game 4 vs. Colorado Rockies

Not even an interruption from the scum of the earth (A-Rod/Scott Boras) could ruin this night. Jon Lester, nine months removed from chemotherapy, made this game a human interest story as well as a good World Series game. The Sox picked up a run in the first and never looked back. Though the game was close for all nine innings the final outcome was never in doubt. The Red Sox were the better team and like 2004, they took care of business in just four games. Jon Papelbon recorded his third save of the series capping off his Rivera-like postseason. (In 14 and two-thirds postseason innings Pap has a 0.00 ERA). Watching your team celebrate a World Series never gets old. 2004 was no fluke. By sweeping the Rockies and taking home their second championship in four years there is officially a new superpower in baseball and that team is the Boston Red Sox.

2. 2004 ALCS Game 7 vs. New York Yankees

Heading into game seven of the 2003 ALCS I remember talking to my Dad about how it was the biggest Red Sox game ever. It could not get any bigger. Not only was it game seven of the American League Championship Series. Not only was it Red Sox versus the Yankees. It was Pedro Martinez against Roger Clemens. It was a life or death feeling because for a Red Sox fan it was a great possibility that it could be decades before getting this opportunity again. That’s what made the Boone homer so devastating. We were so close and now we would never have a chance to beat our biggest rivals in such a big game. Well twelve months after Aaron Boone pushed the Red Sox out of the postseason, we had them in the same situation with even bigger stakes. The Yankees were looking to avoid the biggest embarrassment in their franchise history, while the Sox were looking to erase eighty-six years of misfortune. The game was merely a formality. After what the Sox had done in the previous three games to get to this point, there was no way they could lose. A Damon grand slam in the second effectively ended it and the celebration was on. Watching the Sox celebrate in Yankee Stadium is something every Sox fan should watch during times of depression.

1. 2004 World Series Game 4 vs. St. Louis Cardinals

No more curse of the Bambino. No more 1918 chants. The Boston Red Sox won the World Series for the first time in eighty-six years. Eleven days prior to this game the Sox were down three games to zero in the ALCS to the hated Yankees. Then Dave Roberts stole second in the ninth inning of game four and everything changed. Now the Sox had completed the greatest comeback in sports history and were one win away from the World Series. Derrick Lowe got the ball in a chance to clinch the series. Lowe was brilliant, letting up three hits and no runs over seven innings. A leadoff homer from Johnny Damon would be all the Sox would need as they shutout the Cards en route to the series sweep. The Sox had done what some actually believed was impossible and it’s a moment no Sox fan will ever forget.

With the 103rd Fall Classic now history, I put together a few historical notes that might be of interest.

• The Boston Red Sox haven’t clinched a world series at home since September 11, 1918
• Prior to taking the field at Coors Field at first base during Game 3, David Ortiz only played first in seven games, all interleague games – without an error.
• Kevin Youkilis has fielded 1,586 straight errorless chances at first base, breaking the club record of first baseman Stuffy McInnis.
• Youkilis is the only first baseman in American League history to play an entire season without an error.
• In 2004, when the Red Sox last won a World Series, Trot Nixon was the only player to have come through the Sox farm system. The 2007 Sox, by comparison, had pitcher Jon Lester, a second round pick in 2002, Clay Buchholz, a supplemental pick after the first round in 2005, Jonathan Papelbon, a fourth-round pick in 2003, and Manny Delcarmen, a second- round pick in 2000.
• October 22, 1997: Game 4 of the World Series between the Florida Marlins and Cleveland Indians, was the coldest game in World Series history, 38 degrees — 18 degrees with wind chill.
• Game 1 of the this year’s world series registered a 10.5 rating and a 17 audience share nationally, up 31 percent from last year’s game one between the Tigers and Cardinals.
• None of the 22 teams that lost the first three World Series games bounced back to take the series.
• Nineteen teams have swept the World Series.
• Denver is the 25th city to host a world series.
• At 5,280 feet, Denver set a record for the highest altitude for a World Series game.
• Boston’s seven consecutive world series wins is the most since the Yankees won 14 World Series games in a row, beginning with Game 2 of the 1996 Series through Game 2 in 2000.
• Aaron Cook started Game 4, his first appearance since August 10th due to injury. That is the longest layoff before a World Series start since Bob Grim started Game 5 for the 1955 Yankees. Grim last started on June 12th of that year.
• The Red Sox have won the third-most World Series, (six), next to the Yankees (26) and Cardinals (10),
• In the six seasons prior to the 1967 “Impossible Dream”, Boston fielded some woeful teams, drawing fewer than 1 million fans. 
• Seven times since 1969, the team that dropped the first two games ended up being swept.
• After June 2, Colorado had a 42-17 record at home, including postseason play. The Sox, meanwhile, had the second-best road record in the majors at 46-36.
• Game 3 marked the third consecutive game started by a pitcher born outside the United States: Daisuke Matsuzaka (Japan); Jeff Francis (Canada); and Ubaldo Jimenez (Dominican Republic).
•  The Boston Red Sox and Colorado Rockies had a combined 17 players who were born outside the United States on their rosters.
•  In 1903 , there was only one foreign-born player that appeared on a World Series roster.
• Lou Piniella of the New York Yankees was the first DH in World Series history on October 16, 1976
• 1918 was the last World Series without a home run.
• The Fall Classic was actually called the “World’s Series” until the 1920’s, when the possessive form faded out.
• Bill Wambsganns recorded the only unassisted triple play in World Series history for the Cleveland Indians during game 5 of 1920 World Series against the Brooklyn Dodgers.
• NBC televised the first World Series game in 1947.
• The first time lights were used during a World Series game was on October 9, 1949, when they were turned on in the top of the 9th inning (4:50 p.m.) at Ebbets Field.
• The first night game of a World Series was on October 13, 1971, between the Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates.
• The only World Series MVP from a losing team went to Bobby Richardson of the New York Yankees during the 1960 World Series against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

www.billlucey.com

Jon Lester

• Left-handed starting pitcher

• Boston Red Sox

Colorado Rockies Outlook

Pitcher Plan

Jon Lester is a World Series starter replacement for the reportedly injured Tim Wakefield. He is not an ideal playoff starter because he is prone to wildness and short starts, which can wreak havoc on the bullpen during the playoffs. He does, however, have very good stuff and can be dominating in any particular start.

Lester always starts the game by staying away from hitters with fastball strikes. When ahead in the count he’ll likely use his slider down and off the plate to his glove-side to both right-handed and left-handed hitters. He pitches to contact with his slider.

Best Match-up

Lester is tough to hit for most left-handed batters because of his deceptive arm slot. He hides the ball well from hitters with his good shoulder turn. Brad Hawpe should have the most difficulty with Lester because of Lester’s ability to use a combination of sliders away and fastballs up in the strike zone; both of these are weak areas for Hawpe. Hawpe is hitting just .220 against lefties for his career, with a .693 on-base percentage plus slugging (OPS).

Worst Match-up

Holliday and Atkins should be two of the most difficult hitters in the Rockies lineup for Lester to pitch to. They see the ball a long time, which enables them to identify and lay off Lester’s best out-pitch – his slider. Holliday has also shown an ability to handle lefties. For his career, he’s hitting .299 against them, with an OPS of .891. He’s also a much better hitter in Colorado than on the road (1.087 career home OPS versus 0.781 road). Atkins has similar splits, batting .292 with an OPS of .848 in his career against lefties, and doing much better at home (.927 career OPS) than the road (.781). Where’s that humidor?

Keys to Success

1. Lester must begin the game by establishing his fastball away from hitters in the strike zone.
2. He must expand the strike zone with his cut fastball inside off the plate to right-handed hitters.
3. Lester must keep his pitch count to a minimum because he gets tired fast and his mistakes are made in the middle of the plate and up in the strike zone.
4. He must be especially careful against Holliday and Atkins – his two toughest match-ups. He must avoid their hitter hot zones.

Full Scouting Report

Overall

Lester was one of baseball’s best stories in 2007, coming back from cancer. He can be wild, and his pitch counts can mount quickly, creating a lot of short starts. At this point in his career, the 23-year-old is a decent number four starter or good number five starter, with good upside. He finished 2007 with a 4-0 record and 4.57 ERA in 12 appearances (11 starts).

Lester throws four pitches (fastball, curve, change-up and slider). For a young kid he has very good mound composure. The Red Sox have been careful with him, given his youth and cancer. They’ll keep him at a pitch count of less than 100.

Lester grades out at a 54 on the scouting 20-80 scale, which evaluates raw pitching tools. By comparison, Johan Santana of the Minnesota Twins grades out at 75. Based on his raw pitching tools and actual results, we categorize Lester as “Average” on a marginal/key role/average/good/premium/elite scale.

Strengths

He can have good command of his fastball, curve, and change-up and can throw them all for strikes. Lester does a good job of getting ahead in the count. He works at a good pace and does a nice job of holding runners at first base. He has good mound presence for a kid and handles pressure well.

Weaknesses

He tends to pitch around the big power guys too much and he appears to get tired too easily in the middle innings. He gives up too many home runs (10 in 63 innings) and walks too many (31). Because of the walks, he puts too many batters on base; he had a WHIP of 1.46 in 2007.

Fastball (89-93 mph)

Lester’s fastball has small tail to it. He locates it best when throwing it arm-side. His fastball will show late life up in the zone. It works the best when thrown to the arm-side outer-half of the plate against right-handed hitters. He will start lefties with his fastball, but he won’t use it as much as an out-pitch to lefties.

Cut Fastball (85-89)

Lester has the best command of this pitch when thrown to his glove-side. When it is working well he throws it for strikes inside to right-handed hitters as well as off the plate inside to right-handed hitters. Lester’s cutter will show some depth to it, and he’ll get a lot of swings when it’s thrown with two strikes down and inside to righties.

Curve (72-75)

His curveball has average break (2-8 angle), and he has the ability to sweep it to left-handed hitters. Lester locates his curveball well to both sides of the plate. He will use it in middle counts to right-handed hitters, and he is capable of a good backdoor curve late in the count. Of his two breaking pitches, his curve will be thrown for strikes more often than his slider.

Slider (81-85)

He throws a hard slider, usually down and out of the zone to his glove-side. He will get a lot of swings from left-handed hitters because he does a nice job of setting it up. He rarely throws it for strikes, but it is an effective pitch for him. It doesn’t have a big break to it, and it doesn’t have a lot of depth, but he locates it well.

Change-up (82-84)

Lester’s change-up has small tail to it and some sinking action. It isn’t straight. He will keep this pitch down in the zone, and he will use it to right-handed hitters only. He is not comfortable throwing this pitch early; he prefers to set it up with either a fastball or slider.

Mechanics (B)

Lester tends to get tired quickly. This can be identified when he is unable to maintain his strong foundation over the rubber and leaves his fastball up in the strike zone. Lester works from a three quarter arm slot with good arm extension in the back. He tends to rush his arm circle when he can’t stay back over the rubber in a good position.

Aaron Cook

• Right-handed starting pitcher
• Colorado Rockies

Boston Red Sox Outlook

Pitching Plan

Cook replaces Franklin Morales in the Rockies starting rotation for the World Series, and it’s a risky bet. Though Cook has a better track record than Morales, he hasn’t pitched in a game since August 10th because of an oblique injury.

Against the Red Sox Cook will need to throw his fastball both in and out of the strike zone. If he can properly locate it, his fastball is a good pitch against the Sox. It can be an effective pitch down and inside the strike zone, and that matches up well against the weaknesses of many of the Sox hitters. He’ll have the added advantage over Jeff Francis and Ubaldo Jimenez, the Rockies game one and two starters, in that the Sox line-up will lose the designated hitter. David Ortiz, Mike Lowell and Kevin Youkilis are candidates to come out, but look for it to be Youkilis.

Cook will look to throw first pitch strikes, especially in the first inning against Dustin Pedroia and Youkilis. He doesn’t want to have Ortiz and Manny Ramirez at the plate in the first with men on; that could lead to an early deficit for the Rockies. Cook will attack the strike zone, regardless of who is at the plate.

Best Match-up

Cook matches up well against Ramirez, Pedroia, Youkilis, and Julio Lugo. These hitters all have holes down and inside, and this is where Cook’s fastball is at its best.

Worst Match-up

Cook’s strength is low in the zone, so good low ball hitting, left-handed hitters are bad match-ups for Cook. For the Red Sox this means Ortiz, Jason Varitek and JD Drew, especially if they are committed to moving the fastball to the opposite field.

Keys to Success

1. Cook must use his fastball to get a strike on his first pitch.
2. When ahead of the hitters, Cook must use his slider out of the zone.
3. The Rockies are one of baseball’s best defensive teams. Cook needs to throw strikes and let them make plays.
4. Start off strong. The Rockies don’t want to be down already when they come to bat for the first time. Cook must attack the zone against Pedroia and Youkilis in the first inning. He can’t afford to put them on base via walks with Ortiz and Ramirez coming to the plate.

Cook Scouting Report

Overall

Cook was counted on to be one of the mainstays in the Rockies rotation this year, but an oblique injury has kept him out since August 10th. He finished 2007 with an 8-7 record with a 4.12 ERA and 1.337 WHIP. For his career he’s been remarkably similar in his home and road performances. His career home on-base plus slugging (OPS) allowed is .777 versus .771 on the road. Pitching in Coors has not affected Cook historically.

Cook features a good hard sinking fastball with an above average slider and an occasional change-up. Once in a while, he’ll mix in a slow curve. He uses his fastball effectively to both sides of the plate, and he’ll use it down in the zone when pitching to contact. He will expand the zone up when he needs to. One of Cook’s best assets is his deception and hiding the ball from the opposing batters.

Cook grades out at a 56 on the scouting 20-80 scale, which evaluates raw pitching tools. By comparison, Johan Santana of the Minnesota Twins grades out at 75. Based on his raw pitching tools and actual results, we categorize Cook as “Average” on a marginal/key role/average/good/premium/elite scale.

Strengths

Cook has a hard sinker that he will use throughout the game. It has plus velocity with more sink than tail. He also has the knack of getting stronger as the game goes along, creeping into the mid nineties later in the game. It is difficult for hitters to pick up his release point because of his cross-fire type delivery and big shoulder turn.

Weaknesses

Cook doesn’t fit the profile of a successful playoff pitcher because of his terrible strikeout rate (61 Ks in 166 innings). This means he’s putting the ball into play a lot, which is more dangerous against better-hitting teams. It’s one thing to have success against the light-hitting National League West with this strategy, and it’s another to do it against the Red Sox line-up, especially with Ortiz, Youkilis and Ramirez locked in.

Fastball (90-95mph)

• Movement: He throws a tailing fastball to both sides of the plate and a sinking fastball down in the strike zone.
• Command: Cook’s best command is to his arm-side of the plate.
• Plan: He has the type of sinker that allows him to be effective with only one pitch. If he gets ahead in the count to left-handed hitters, he will throw the pitch inside, tailing it back over the inside corner.

Curve (73-76)

• Movement: This is a looping 10-4 type curve with below average spin.
• Command: It is kept down and to his glove-side.
• Plan: Cook doesn’t throw this pitch very often. He will use it in middle counts to fastball type hitters. He doesn’t expect anyone to swing at his curve; he uses it to get a quick, called strike.

Slider (79-83)

• Movement: Cook uses his hard slider as an out-pitch to both right-handed and left-handed hitters. It has good bite with quick late break.
• Command: Cook has above average command with this pitch. He uses it to both sides of the plate. He can use it in and out of the strike zone effectively.
• Plan: This can be a very good out-pitch with runners on base. When Cook has his slider breaking the right way he is capable of using it to both sides of the plate and for getting swings and misses.

Change-up (80-84)

• Movement: His change-up will show both tail and sinking action. When down in the strike zone it will have more sink than tail.
• Command: Cook throws this best to his arm-side and down in the strike zone.
• Plan: Cook’s change is used almost exclusively to left-handed hitters. He uses it as his third pitch.

Pitching Mechanics (B)

Cook has a bigger cross-over stride than most pitchers, but he is able to make it work because he doesn’t rush his move to the plate. There will be times when his lead foot appears to scrape the ground but it is merely a timing mechanism to keep him back and maintain his tempo. He throws from a three quarter arm slot and is deceptive for most right-handed hitters.

We’ll talk World Series, we’ll make fun of Tim McCarver, we’ll make fun of Taco Bell, and we’ll hope Boyz II Men doesn’t show up.  A good time for all.

Here’s the chat wrap from Game 2:

http://www.dugoutcentral.com/blog/?p=471

Daisuke Matsuzaka

• Right-handed starting pitcher
• Boston Red Sox

Colorado Rockies Outlook

Pitcher Plan

Despite his win in Game seven of the ALCS, Daisuke is still not pitching with the confidence one expects from the $100M man. Against the Rockies, he’ll need to pitch better than he did against the Indians. Specifically, he’ll try to cut down his pitch count and not be afraid of pitching to contact. Getting behind the Colorado hitters (or any hitters) isn’t a good idea but this bunch, especially the middle of the order, has a lot of power – and power hitters do best in hitter counts.

Daisuke should be able to slow the Rockies running game (second baseman Kazuo Matsui and center fielder Willy Taveras) because he is quick to the plate, but bad command of his fastball could get him in trouble against this good fastball hitting team. Look for Matsuzaka to change his first pitch selection the second time through the order to keep the aggressive Rockies hitters honest.

Best Match-up

Matsuzaka matches up well against catcher Yorvit Torrealba and Taveras. Torrealba has trouble with breaking pitches and Matsuzaka is able to command a slider and curve. Taveras likes to bunt to utilize his speed, but Matsuzaka is one of the majors’ best fielding pitchers.

Worst Match-up

Matsuzaka will have the most trouble with Holliday, though it’s safe to say most any pitcher would have trouble against the potential 2007 National League MVP. Daisuke has recently had below average command of his fastball and slider; when he misses, he tends to miss up in the zone. Holliday can hammer either of these pitches up in the zone.

Keys to Success

1. Matsuzaka must be precise with his straight fastball, especially on the first pitch. The Rockies can hit fastballs and they will be looking to jump on the first one they see.
2. Matsuzaka cannot throw bad breaking pitches to this lineup and get away with it as he did against the Indians. The middle of the order is better with more pop than the Cleveland bunch.
3. He must locate his breaking pitches out of the strike zone to the bad breaking ball hitters – Torrealba and Taveras.

Full Scouting Report

Overall

Matsuzaka went 15-12 during the regular season – an impressive year given he was adjusting to a new league. He throws a variety of pitches, including a fastball, curve, slider, cut-fastball, change-up and split finger. He was rumored to throw a gyro-ball, but it’s really just a backup slider, which is a slider with reverse spin.

Matsuzaka grades out at a 65 on the scouting 20-80 scale, which evaluates raw pitching tools. By comparison, Johan Santana of the Minnesota Twins grades out at 75. Based on his raw pitching tools and actual results, we categorize Matsuzaka as “Good” on a marginal/key role/average/good/premium/elite scale.

Strengths

Matsuzaka has plus mound presence, meaning he rises to the occasion in big games and key match-ups. He has two above average swing-and-miss pitches: his fastball and split-finger. He’s very durable, especially given the number of pitches he throws during and between starts. He’s a very good fielder and is quick to home plate, meaning runners have a more difficult time running on him.

Weaknesses

Matsuzaka throws a lot of pitches over the course of a game and sometimes suffers from fatigue in late innings. This tendency is compounded by the fact the MLB season is longer than what he is accustomed to. He is not nearly as effective on short rest.

Fastball (88-94 mph)

• Movement: Most of his fastballs are up in the strike zone. They tend to be straight and show plus life, meaning the ball jumps on the batter. He will use a two-seam fastball to his arm-side of home plate, meaning that he’ll throw the pitch to the side of home plate that his pitching arm is aligned with.
• Command: He commands his fastball best when he keeps it up in the zone. He has below average command inside off the plate, especially to right-handed hitters.
• Plan: He’ll try to get ahead in the count with his two-seam fastball and finish hitters up in the strike zone.

Cut-Fastball (85-89)

• Movement: Daisuke’s cut fastball will show occasional depth, meaning it sometimes acts as a slider. He throws this pitch hard and will use it off the plate (inside to left-handed hitters) to make room for his out-pitch, which is the split-fingered fastball.
• Command: The majority of his cut fastballs are used to his glove-side and his overall command with this pitch is below average.
• Plan: He likes to throw this pitch in hitter counts to left-handed hitters, using it on the inside portion of the strike zone.

Curve (75-79)

• Movement: He throws his curveball hard, and it shows above-average depth. It has a 12-6 break, and he is capable of adding slant to it, unlike right-handed hitters who struggle with breaking balls.
• Command: Daisuke has above-average command of his curve. He is capable of throwing it for strikes at any time in the count.
• Plan: The curve is one of his better pitches; it’s a plus major league pitch. He adjusts to hitters during games by mixing up his curve in his overall pitch sequences. He has a lot of confidence in his curve.

Slider (82-85)

• Movement: Daisuke throws his slider hard, and it occasionally has good depth. In recent outings his slider’s movement has been very inconsistent.
• Command: He has below average command of his slider.
• Plan: He will throw it early in the count over the plate to get ahead of hitters. In middle counts he will use it down and off the plate to his glove-side. And with two strikes to left-handed hitters he will attempt a backdoor slider.

Change-up (80-83)

• Movement: His change-up will show some tailing action and very little sink. Overall, the movement is inconsistent.
• Command: His best command with this pitch is down and to his arm-side.
• Plan: Daisuke doesn’t throw his change-up often. He is capable of throwing it for strikes and will use it more often when his breaking pitches aren’t working.

Split-Finger (81-85)

• Movement: His split will show plus movement down and away from left-handers. It will have good sinking action and show fade as well.
• Command: He commands this pitch down in the strike zone and to his arm-side.
• Plan: He will vary the speeds by adding and subtracting with his split based on the situation and count. It’s his best out-pitch – a good swing-and - miss pitch. Matsuzaka is capable of throwing it for strikes early in the count with runners in scoring position, and he will add velocity to it late in the count.

Pitching Mechanics (B)

Matsuzaka has had to make some big adjustments pitching in the U.S. First, the pitching mounds are higher than they are in Japan. Pitching downhill requires a pitcher to stay back over the rubber for a longer period of time instead of pushing off and driving with his legs as so many Japanese pitchers are told to do.

Second, Japanese pitchers are coached to lead with their elbow, similar to the way catchers throw. The result is a straight and accurate fastball, whereas American pitchers are taught to create more movement.

Josh Fogg

• Right-handed starting pitcher
• Colorado Rockies

Boston Red Sox Outlook

Pitcher Plan

Fogg throws a lot of pitches trying to get hitters to chase pitches out of the zone. While that overall strategy worked in 2007, he throws a lot of pitches and allows too many walks. He’ll need to cut down on the number of pitches and walks against a very patient Boston Red Sox line-up.

Fogg will use his tailing fastball, cut fastball, and change-up to pitch to contact, and he’ll usually use his slider as his swing and miss pitch. Fogg should plan to throw strikes early in the count to the patient Red Sox line-up, and his second time through the order he’ll need to do the same with different types of pitches. Boston is an experienced team and is capable of making intra-game adjustments easily. Fogg is capable of throwing strikes with all his pitches.

Best Match-up

The best match-ups for Josh Fogg tend to be younger hitters who are willing to take a strike, such as second baseman Dustin Pedroia and outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury. Taking a strike can be done for many reasons, but it can quickly put these two behind in the count.

Worst Match-up

Good low ball hitters from the left side of the plate, such as designated hitter David Ortiz and right fielder JD Drew, will take away Fogg’s ability to use his slider effectively out of the strike zone. Both can hit errant sliders that stay in the zone and also recognize low pitches out of the strike zone, such as back-foot sliders, that they should not swing at.

Keys to Success

1. Fogg needs to create good movement on his pitches by staying balanced and getting good arm extension in front. When he gets tired he tends to lose his foundation (legs) and as a result elevates his pitches.
2. Fogg must stay out of the hitter hot zones when facing left fielder Manny Ramirez and Ortiz.
3. He must get first pitch strikes and limit the number of pitches the Red Sox see.

Full Scouting Report

Josh Fogg went 10-9 with a 4.94 ERA during the regular season. After six full seasons in the majors, it’s safe to say “he is what he is”: a decent number five starter who is good for 10 wins and a 5.00 ERA each year. Though he’s a decent number five, he’s not someone you want starting an important playoff game. He allows too many base runners (1.53 WHIP) and doesn’t strike out many (5.11/nine innings). As the numbers indicate, he is not overpowering and must rely on pitch movement to get outs. He is capable of making good adjustments to hitters during a game.

Fogg rates a “55″ on the scouting 20-80 scale, which evaluates raw pitching tools.  By comparison, Johan Santana of the Minnesota Twins gets a 75.  Based on Fogg’s raw pitching tools, including the scouting evaluation of his historical performance, we currently categorize Fogg as “Average” on our category marginal/key role/average/good/premium/elite scale.

Strengths

He’s good for 25-30 starts each year. He’s capable of throwing strikes with all of his pitches. He makes good in-game adjustments to opposing hitters. Fogg is a good fielder and can keep base stealers close.

Weaknesses

Fogg lacks consistency with most of his pitches, and he has average command in the strike zone. He is not overpowering and must pitch to contact to be successful.

Fastball (87-92 mph)

• Movement: Fogg has a sinking fastball with more sink than tail on it. He will also use a four-seam fastball up in the strike zone.
• Command: He has below average command of this pitch, but he can throw it over the plate when he needs to.
• Plan: His plan is to pitch to contact with his fastball using both his sinker and his cut fastball.

Slider (82-86 mph)

• Movement: It doesn’t break very much and looks more like a cut fastball than a sharp slider. It has below average depth and average rotation.
• Command: He commands this pitch to both sides of the plate. Average command.
• Plan: Fogg will use his slider as his outpitch. He’ll use it to the back foot of lefties on his glove-side, and he’ll throw it to both sides against the right hand hitters.

Change-up (81-84 mph)

• Movement: His changeup shows some tail and sinking movement. There’s more sink when it is down and more tailing action when it is up
• Command: Fogg commands his change-up best to his arm-side and uses it down in the strike zone.
• Plan: Fogg will use his change-up in middle counts (1-1, 2-1) to right-handed hitters and will use it more often to lefties as an out-pitch.

Curve (75-78 mph)

• Movement: Fogg’s curveball has average break to it. It shows 11-5 break, but he is able to change the angle to take advantage of a hitter’s weakness.
• Command: He attempts to throw this pitch down in the zone to his glove-side.
• Plan: Fogg doesn’t like to show his curve the first time through the batting order. He will use it later in the game, to try to change the hitter’s eye level and to set up his sinking fastball and slider.

Pitching Mechanics (B)

Josh Fogg has average mechanics. He must stay back over the rubber and have his arm work out in front, creating good extension so he can get the most out of his sinking fastball and slider. His adjustments to hitters come from creating various arm slots and adding deception.

carlson_k says:

Ubaldo? Over under on red sox homers tonight?

Dan says:

You baldo! Over/under on Boston homers is 3. Jimenez surrendered 10 in only 80 innings this year. Could this be more batting practice for the Red Sox?

carlson_k says:

i’ll take the over. Does Francona have an early hook if Schilling doesn’t have his good stuff?

Dan says:

Well, Francona doesn’t even have an early hook on his best pitcher when he’s up 12 runs. I do not understand why you need a guy like Kyle Snyder on the roster if he’s not going to be used in a way that you KNOW is going to help you rather than saving him for some 21-inning game. Makes no sense!

admin says:

All right. We’re on!

Dan says:

That’s right, and I have to think that the patient Sox hitters are going to run Ubaldo’s pitch count up pretty quickly. It’s a good game plan, especially given the type of day it is in Beantown. 47 degrees, wind blowing straight in, albeit lightly…

mpags says:

Carlson, schilling is out early because they can use the entire pen and have tomorrow off.

mpags says:

Dan I’m not so sure taking a strike off of Jimenez is a good idea.

Dan says:

I’m not sure either. No way to be SURE sure, but Ubaldo isn’t going to want to get bombed, and I’ll bet he won’t be laying fastballs in there. He’s a rookie, so my guess is that he’ll be shaky.

mpags says:

He’ll be shaky and try to throw as hard as he can. You might see 101 tonight on the gun. No command (location) from this kid.

Dan says:

I’m thinking they chose the wrong pitcher to put in the bullpen to clear a spot for Cook, who frankly shouldn’t be pitching in the first place.

mpags says:

If Jimenez can get strike one on the first pitch - there won’t be many guys getting hits.

Dan says:

Yes, as with every baseball game ever played, first pitch strikes will be important.

Dan says:

You guys listening to this screaming match on the FOX pre-game? Byrnesy is hollering into the microphone. Is his hair frozen? Also, is Jeanne Zelasko wearing an outfit by Disney? She looks like Cruella DeVille.

mpags says:

True but first pitch strike against Byrd compared to Jimenez are two different ball games.

Dan says:

Yes, figuratively different ballgames. Literally, it’s the same game.

It’s not like Jimenez had an insane strikeout rate this year. 60-some in 80-some innings. Good, but not great. A little better than Schilling, but Schilling is a much better control pitcher.

carlson_k says:

Hard throwing pitchers with similar stuff, like verlander, have success against the red sox but ONLY if they don’t walk batters. The margin for error for a guy like Jimenez or Verlander is razor thin

mpags says:

If he’s able to get his breaking stuff over the plate - lots of strike outs.

Dan says:

James Taylor seems like a nice guy. As a musician, however, I don’t get it. Seems like a hack to me. Sorry.

Dan says:

Looks like they put a hobo in a blue suit. What’s left of his hair is flying around like Big Ern McCracken.

Dan says:

Remember everyone, if someone steals a base we all get a free bio-genetically engineered corn taco. That’s like offering a complimentary kick in the nuts.

mpags says:

The difference between first pitch strikes from a guy like Byrd and a guy like Jimenez; Byrd throws first pitch strikes on a good team he wins 15 maybe 20 if he’s lucky. A guy that can throw 100 and throw first pitch strikes (which he can’t consistently) can win 20 easily. Not everybody can hit 98 on the first pitch. Everybody can hit Byrd’s first pitch if the location is off.

I like the Verlander comparison - only this guys isn’t in the same category yet.

I’ll take a taco now.

Dan says:

Pags, no one argues that Ubaldo doesn’t have good stuff. I was just guessing that the Sox will attempt to exploit his inconsistency and lack of experience. If he comes in firing 100mph-with-movement first-pitch strikes, sure, he could be tough!

mpags says:

What are Helton’s numbers off of Schilling?

Dan says:

Not sure. He’s unlikely to have enough at-bats for the numbers to be meaningful…unless they’re really really lopsided, maybe…

mpags says:

Attack Curt Schilling early tonight - Great, nice strategy Tim M. Is he serious?

Dan says:

McCarver is a bigger hack than James Taylor. He’s always coming up with doozies…

Dan says:

Pags, Schilling faced the Rockies on June 13th and got knocked around pretty good. No hits from Helton though..

whipple11 says:

Helton has 59 AB’s against Schilling. Hitting .333, 5HR, 11RBI

Dan says:

That was the old Todd Helton, of course…

Dan says:

Thanks for the #’s Tyson

mpags says:

My daughter asks me tonight, “dad, what are they going to do with Ortiz in Colorado?” How do you not love the World Series.

Dan says:

Good question, little Pags. My guess is they bench Youkilis.

mpags says:

Schilling tips his curve. I’ll try to see if I can on TV. He usually does a slight click with his glove to the right prior to starting his delivery.

mpags says:

He used to tip his split finger with the front of his glove. You can see it from behind the plate.

Dan says:

Pags, they should have signed you to hit in the middle of the order…

whipple11 says:

Dan, do you feel that Ortiz is healthy enough to play first base and still be productive at the plate?

Dan says:

Yes, I think he’ll do fine. You can’t take his bat out of the lineup.

Dan says:

Yes, I think he’ll do fine. You can’t take his bat out of the lineup.

Dan says:

Rockies key to the game: “Want to strike early”

Who doesn’t? Gotta love that analysis.

Dan says:

Hoe does Taveras lay off that 0-2 splitter? Nice…

mpags says:

What are Ortiz’s numbers when he plays firstbase?

jeff says:

So, when is the hand part of the bat? Only when the batter swings?

Dan says:

It’s a judgment call. If the guy is just standing there, he isn’t going to get called for a foul ball.

mpags says:

He might be tipping his split. I know a guy working with the Rox.

mpags says:

I think you’re right Dan.

mpags says:

split next pitch

Dan says:

Taveras should steal. My guess is he waits for 1-2 or 2-2…

mpags says:

Schilling needs to bounce one or go up out of the zone

Dan says:

Smart to go after Matsui though. No power.

mpags says:

Split grip entering the glove…….look for a wiggle for a different type of pitch.

mpags says:

No wiggle = split

Dan says:

Someone has to be at third there.

Dan says:

Here’s Helton, .333 career hitter against Schilling (courtest of Tyson Whipple).

whipple11 says:

The only time Ortiz has had to play first in the postseason was in 04 WS agaisnt the Cards. He had 7 AB’s, 2 hits with one of them being a double. Not alot to go by.

mpags says:

He’s throwing his Cut fastball more often, it means he doesn’t trust his regular fastball……

Dan says:

I don’t know that it means he doesn’t trust his regular fastball. Could just be his game plan.

carlson_k says:

looked like a bad hop for lowell. nice play

Dan says:

Not a good idea to throw to an unmanned base, especially given where Tavares was. Nothing to gain there. Easy for me to say from here, but still…

mpags says:

He doesn’t trust it enought to throw it inside to lefties is what I meant. He’s using his cut FB to make room for his split.

Dan says:

He’s going for a quasi-Mariano Rivera approach then, is that what you mean. Throwing it into the hands of lefties. Seems logical in that ballpark especially…

Dan says:

Slider from dugout to dugout? Heads up, guys!

Dan says:

What are you doing, Pedroia? You need some baserunners! What’s with swinging at the first pitch?

mpags says:

Byrnes: slider from dugout to dugout i think he meant Corpas. If he could hit with his mouth he’d be in the Hall.

whipple11 says:

The only person in the Sox line-up that has an PA against Jimenez is Lugo. Which was a base hit.

Dan says:

“Slider from dugout to dugout” could easily be a euphemism for a baseball annie.

mpags says:

how bad do you think the fastball to Pedroia and Egg-head hurt their hands?

carlson_k says:

i think pags is on to something–the red sox are afraid to see strike one if he’s throwing the fastball to start them off

Dan says:

Well, I still think they need to go ahead and let it happen. He has to be given a chance to beat himself. Just my opinion…

Dan says:

Anyone going to see Fred Claus? No? Me neither.

SCPOSteve says:

It’s Bart Giamatti’s kid. Every baseball fan HAS to see it for that reason alone.

Dan says:

Good point, Kevin. You think they got a break on the advertising rate?

Dan says:

Or rather, good point, Steve…

mpags says:

Why isn’t Schilling’s split hitting the dirt?

Dan says:

Because the weather report said that there was only 80% gravity today.

whipple11 says:

Jason Varitek leads all current Red Sox with 7 postseason HR’s away from Fenway. Manny in 2nd with 6 and Ortiz 3rd with 5. No one has hit a HR at Coors in the postseason.

Dan says:

Hey, splitter in the dirt, Pags!

SCPOSteve says:

Remember when it was impossible to pick the AL All-Star shortstop. How hard’s the NL gonna be now that you’ve got Ramirez, Rollins, Reyes and Tulo?

Dan says:

It’s going to be fun to watch the NL shortstops for the next handful of years. Who moves off of shortstop first? I’ll say Ramirez…

mpags says:

off-speed coming up.

whipple11 says:

Torrealba has the 2nd most AB’s against Schill with 12. He has 6 hits.

Dan says:

41-year old pitcher’s best friend!

mpags says:

Do we have Ortiz’s numbers while playing first base for the past three years Tys? How do you get those numbers?

Dan says:

This is what Tyson said earlier:

The only time Ortiz has had to play first in the postseason was in 04 WS agaisnt the Cards. He had 7 AB’s, 2 hits with one of them being a double. Not alot to go by.

SCPOSteve says:

Tough to put much credence in past performances vs. Schill considering how much he’s changed as a pitcher over the last couple of years.

Dan says:

Yeah, he’s gained 30 pounds since then…

SCPOSteve says:

The only problem I have with this chat things is when I see pags say “off-speed coming up” I want to ask why and pick his brain a little but it’s gonna be the next hitter by the time he answers. Want to stop by the house for game 3?

SCPOSteve says:

I can get those numbers…that’s what I do for the money you pay me…oops, forgot I was working for free
Moment please

whipple11 says:

I find alot of the info on baseball-reference.com It costs some money for situational dependent stats and stuff, but i really enjoy the numbers of it all

Dan says:

I second that, Tyson. Worth the money if you are a baseball geek, which I most assuredly am.

mpags says:

I’ll stop by as long as you have enough ICE.

Dan says:

McCarver assures us that Boston is 20 feet above sea level, so the curveball should work. Can we confirm this, Tyson?

SCPOSteve says:

Ortiz career as a 1b:
837 AB/234 H/40 HR/280 AVG/363 OBP/505 SLG

Stats powered by our friends at baseball-reference.com

mpags says:

Dugout to dugout I guess.

Dan says:

Dugout-to-ankle.

SCPOSteve says:

Why are we humoring Tim?

Dan says:

Hey, we’re not humoring Tim, FOX is. The man is in the booth, and there’s nothing we can do about that except maybe bang out angry letters.

mpags says:

His outpitch to Lefties is a changeup or a curve….not a slider. What’s he doing?

carlson_k says:

fox will have a close up of drew’s bloody sock any minute now…

whipple11 says:

Yea Im from the area its closer to 25ft,

SCPOSteve says:

Speaking of watching a game together. A couple of the guys and I are batting around the idea of getting the “scouts” and the “geeks” together for a round-table either over a couple beers or, even better, at spring training. Thoughts.

Dan says:

You guys are on the East Coast, right?

SCPOSteve says:

I’m in Baltimore.

Dan says:

Is that you, Caimano?

SCPOSteve says:

Yes.

Dan says:

Transplanted Missourian?

mpags says:

Batting practice coffee in Jupiter or Fort Myers always works.

Dan says:

My high school team used to have spring training in Fort Myers. That’s right, high school!

SCPOSteve says:

Grew up there, moved to upstate NY as a high schooler then joined the Navy.

mpags says:

Off speed coming up

carlson_k says:

Spillborghs looked totally lost up there.

Dan says:

Perfect fastball to Spilborghs there. Brilliant.

carlson_k says:

Has he thrown a ball to Taveras yet?

Dan says:

Yeah, off his hand.

carlson_k says:

oh yeah, he hit him

SCPOSteve says:

You know, everybody talks about what the AL team loses by having to sit their DH in the NL park, but the AL team gets a huge advantage from having a full-time DH in the AL park vs. a glorified pinch hitter like Spillborghs.

Dan says:

Oh, absolutely, Steve. It’s more or less a wash, I would say.

mpags says:

Agreed, but maybe Colorado should have a better #9 hitter than Spilborghs. It exposes one of their weaknesses - their bench.

whipple11 says:

Thats why the All Star game plays such an important role in this series. It means the Sox has 4 4 games to use their DH, instead of having to figure out their line-ups at Coors for an additional game.

Dan says:

“I guess that’s why they call meee….Big Papi”.

carlson_k says:

Jimenez has only used 19 pitches, 13 for strikes, through 2 innings

Dan says:

I guess I was wrong about that. Although it does seem that Boston is chasing early, grounding out and all that…

Dan says:

And I’d like to give props to Ubaldo’s classic stirrups.

carlson_k says:

He really does remind me of Verlander

Dan says:

Not as wild as Verlander, but I can see what you’re saying. And I think his fastball has more movement.

mpags says:

He’ll be wild - just give him a few innings.

Dan says:

The ground outs are a good sign, though he’s only struck out one.

Dan says:

Did you see him throw an 86mph straight change to Lugo?

Dan says:

That’s the Pedroia I know. 3-0 count…

whipple11 says:

Jimenez has never pitched more than 7 innnings in his pro career

Dan says:

You mean in his major league career, or his pro career?

whipple11 says:

major league

SCPOSteve says:

3 complete games in the minors

Dan says:

Who is the home plate umpire again? He’s expanding the zone a little.

Dan says:

To be fair to Jimenez, Youkilis’s head is a sizable target.

Dan says:

Good bat from the Greek God of Walks.

mpags says:

Wasn’t Youkilis Egghead in Batman.

SCPOSteve says:

yeah, i commented on that in my ALCS game diary when he got hit by the throw. Man’s got a large melon.

Dan says:

That’s got to need a custom hat, right? I’m thinking 8 3/4?

mpags says:

8 7/8 with Hair

SCPOSteve says:

In fact, if Youkilis ever gets hit in the head the pitcher should argue the gravitational pull of his head constitutes a failure to avoid the pitch.

Dan says:

Gotta love the shout out to Newtonian physics, Steve.

mpags says:

There go his mechanics. Apodaca get out there now.

mpags says:

Don’t throw Ortiz down!

mpags says:

Alright, one more time DON’T THROW ORTIZ DOWN

Dan says:

Youkilis wears a size 9 Yarmulke.

carlson_k says:

oy.

mpags says:

His space helmet would be a great green house.

Dan says:

I’m calling it. Here’s where Holliday clobbers one.

mpags says:

What Tim means to say is Holliday has a short start to his swing.

Dan says:

Okay, don’t know if that qualifies as a “clobber”…

mpags says:

Pedroia doesn’t have a long stroke. This would be a false statement.

Dan says:

Actually, I do think Pedroia has a relatively long swing.

mpags says:

You can’t possibly his the high pitch like Pedroia does with a long stroke TIM.

Dan says:

He steps in the bucket. I’m not sure why no one curves him. I would guess it’s because he’s small, and the default approach to small guys is fastballs up and/or in. I believe this is a mistake.

mpags says:

Now Hawpe has a long swing.

Dan says:

Agreed, Pags.

admin says:

Pags,

I just got online. I can’t seem to find the Yankees game. What channel is that on?

All I can find are these Rockies and Red Sox guys.

whipple11 says:

Is the pitching that good tonight? Or the hitting that bad? Im not actually watching the game, but watching the pages refresh on yahoo

SCPOSteve says:

See, this is what I’m looking for from the site. A video report with Pags showing us Holliday and Pedroia’s swings and pointing out why Tim is wrong about the long/short swing thing. What he said makes sense to my untrained eye, but I’d love to learn why I’m wrong.

Dan says:

Pedroia looks to me like a guy who starts early and steps in the bucket.

mpags says:

The Yankees are playing somewhere - you know that.

SCPOSteve says:

I’m sure the YES network is showing highlights from the 1999 series.

admin says:

Oh - I found the Yankees game. ESPN Classic.

Dan says:

Tyson, you have a television?

Dan says:

Where are you Tyson, Iraq, for chrissakes!?

whipple11 says:

Haha yea Dan. Im not exactly in the States right now.

mpags says:

Hurdle is a good guy!

Dan says:

I’ll reserve judgment on that. He’s probably a little bit nuts with the bible-thumping…

mpags says:

Pedroia similar (careful now) to Clemente steps in the bucket. But they both maintain their top half over the strike zone enabling them to reach the outside pitch.

Dan says:

Different type hitters, but I can see what you’re saying…

carlson_k says:

Pedroia’s swing at times reminds me of Brandon Inge

carlson_k says:

it’s the sock!

Dan says:

What an arm!

whipple11 says:

yea sure am Dan. Living the American Dream. Haha

mpags says:

Inge has a longer swing but much more power.

Dan says:

Gotta love the internet, Tyson!

Dan says:

Inge has a similar swing, except for about 400% more misses.

mpags says:

If he doesn’t get Ellsbury, he needs a visit from the pitching coach.

Dan says:

The bullpen is doing the tomahawk chop with Ellsbury at the plate!

Dan says:

He’ll get a visit…

mpags says:

Jimenez falling off to the first base side too soon. He’s coming out of his delivery.

mpags says:

This means he’s not square to homeplate long enough and will leave too many pitches up in the zone.

mpags says:

Jimenez needs to keep his front shoulder pointed to home longer to allow his arm to catch up and get full extension. He’s losing his release point right now.

whipple11 says:

If Crisp was still in the line-up. Inning would be over right now.

SCPOSteve says:

This is what I was talking about in my announcer article. Why can’t they show a replay of Jimenez delivery and have the analyst say what Pags just said? Wouldn’t that be, like, analysis.

mpags says:

No mechanics instruction from the pitching coach.

Dan says:

Yes, yes it would, but with all due respect to Pags, this is far from an exact science.

mpags says:

You can tell by the way he finishes his delivery - when he’s looking at the plate he’s balanced, when he falls off the ball goes everywhere.

Dan says:

FREE TACO!!!

mpags says:

Its not science - its pitching.

Dan says:

Even with 1st base open, Lugo getting here there constitutes taking one for the team. It brings up a better hitter!

SCPOSteve says:

Noticed that too, but my question is how unusual it is? I’m thinking about my golf swing. If I concentrate too much on one piece of my mechanics other things get out of whack. If I just relax and let it flow I’m better.

Dan says:

Send us some video, Steve!

admin says:

Mike,

ESPN is reporting that Girardi is being considered for the Dodgers managerial job - even though Grady Little is under contract.

How does this affect the Yankees job search? Could this just be posturing by Girardi’s camp to get the Yankees job?

Dan says:

Do we really have to talk about the Yankees managerial opening during a World Series game between two entirely different teams?

SCPOSteve says:

No, no thanks. Tough to get my question to sync up with Pags’ comment, but maybe Jimenez (and other pitchers perhaps) doesn’t react well to in-game mechanics advice, was my point.

mpags says:

This is the pitching coach’s job to understand it. It is for the coach to know then translate some or all of it depending on the pitcher.

Dan says:

Once you’re in the game, I can’t imagine that a whole lot of mechanical tweaking will be feasible. Pags will disagree, I’m sure.

SCPOSteve says:

Hell, for the first few days I was on here I was pretty sure this was a Yankees sponsored site!

mpags says:

Got a call from NYC tonight. Sounds like they’re leaning towards 23.

Dan says:

That is the last Yankees managerial comment I’ll approve. It doesn’t matter who the Yankees manager is.

Jim Wailwander Knows Best says:

No one kills a rally like Lugo…except for Inge.

mpags says:

Steve, your right. Many pitchers don’t respond to in-game instruction. Similar to golf, Don’t you hate those guys on the golf course saying stuff about your swing. I want to hit them with the club.

Dan says:

The bunt by Torrealba is a waste of an out. The Rockies are using one-run strategies already.

Jim Wailwander Knows Best says:

So which team does God endorse tonight? Schilling has to have some pull with the big man.

Dan says:

Yeah, but Colorado might as well be called the Colorado Springs Rockies. THat’s His country.

SCPOSteve says:

I was in a conversation tonight about the one-run strategies difference between the leagues. Anybody wanna guess how many more sac bunts there were in the NL this year?

Jim Wailwander Knows Best says:

Bunting against a team that can score 1032 runs per game is dumb. The Rockies must play for the big inning if they are to have any chance.

Dan says:

Can you believe how many drug commercials there are? It’s a flaccid man’s dream. They’re advertising relief for every condition from erectile dysfunction to alopecia. Only in America!

mpags says:

Lots of wives and girlfriends must have complained.

Jim Wailwander Knows Best says:

Wait till the Brits get a taste of American Football this weekend!

admin says:

Have there been any YAZ drug commercials yet?

Dan says:

What’s that? Yaz?

whipple11 says:

Steve, no idea. What do u got?

Dan says:

You’re referring to the sac bunts? Not sure either. 100% more?

admin says:

In the article Bob L. wrote for us, he mentioned that all the erecticle commercials demonstrate that baseball’s audience is getting older. That was a good point.

Dan says:

Or getting limper, one or the other.

SCPOSteve says:

More than twice as many. 1045 to 495 NL.

SCPOSteve says:

If the White Sox moved to the NL it would probably be 3x as many.

Dan says:

And they’re going to increase their bunting! http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/whitesox/cs-071023sox,1,5492658.story?coll=cs-whitesox-headlines

admin says:

Obviously the brand manager for Yaz was a yankees fan, having fun at the Red Sox expense.

Jim Wailwander Knows Best says:

Ok, they are showing a split screen of Youkalis and Helton…are they comparing Goatees?

Dan says:

Youkilis could be on the House of David team.

SCPOSteve says:

Yeah, Ozzie has officially lost his mind. I can’t wait to see Konerko and Thome bunting and hitting behind the runner so they can be driven in by, who exactly?

Dan says:

Ozzie lost what was left of his mind. He’ll now have to squeeze runs across with nothing more than dead ball strategies and the driving force of his homophobia.

mpags says:

Watch out here.

mpags says:

Don’t throw it.

Jim Wailwander Knows Best says:

Its time for Manny to start being Manny and put one into THAT good night!

mpags says:

Changeup 1-1 to Manny wow.

SCPOSteve says:

DAMMIT TIM! Manny Ramirez lifetime batting average with an 0-2 count is .178. He’s been hot in a span of 10 at bats. For crying out loud somebody save this man from himself.

Dan says:

Yeah Steve, I’m pretty tired of this Manny Ramirez 0-2 mythology.

admin says:

Ryan Braun would have had that one.

Dan says:

And he would have thrown it through Milwaukee’s retractable roof.

Jim Wailwander Knows Best says:

Lowell would look good in a tiger uniform.

Dan says:

As a Tigers fan, I agree. A-Rod would look better.

Dan says:

Going to have to have at least a long single from Lowell to score Papi…

whipple11 says:

But even with the numbers being as bad as they are, what other right handed batter in the last 10 years would you want besides Manny?

Dan says:

Polanco.

Dan says:

You mean 0-2? Polanco. Otherwise, Manny.

admin says:

Mike,

Don’t you have to catch a flight in 9 hours?

SCPOSteve says:

The worst part is that they showed the stat during the ALCS that hitters hit .180 in that situation this year to “make” their point. It took about 5 seconds for me to find Manny’s stats. There’s a guy in the booth who’s only job is to feed them stats. What am I missing?

Dan says:

Steve, it’s a general disregard for logic, dare I say. I don’t want to get too overblown here, but the fact is that no one even understands what constitutes evidence or statistical significance. They’ve been watching faulty analysis for so many years that they don’t have the slightest idea what makes sense and why. Seems like it should be easy to get someone in the booth, but what’s the point? How many people know the difference.

Sorry for being on a high horse here, but it drives me nuts every day of my life.

mpags says:

Just throw it over Ubaldo, don’t worry about it. Challenge them. How’s that instruction now?

admin says:

Can Manny run faster without his helmet?

Dan says:

He can run less slow without his helmet.

Jim Wailwander Knows Best says:

Manny has that Dmitri Young helmet flip down.

SCPOSteve says:

With the 10 year time limit I guess I can’t go with Pujols, so Manny wins.

whipple11 says:

Steve i think alot of avg fans dont want to hear about stats that they dont understand and players they dont know.

mpags says:

got a 6am to Denver. but I enjoy the game interaction. I’m done at the end of the inning, I’ve got to pack.

mpags says:

Steve you could add more insight I’m sure.

mpags says:

Now if Tim can only talk about catching - he’d be better.

admin says:

Without his helmet, Manny looks like The Predator

mpags says:

They both use Youkilis helmets they can’t help it.

whipple11 says:

Manny’s speed doesent change for any circumstance. He could be running out of a burning house or walking down isle 6 of the local grocerey store. he has one gear, Manny.

mpags says:

3-1 curve - only in the world series.

Dan says:

No reason to throw a curve there. With a base open Drew isn’t swinging unless he gets an absolute meat ball.

admin says:

Mike,

Are you going to send me the presentation?

SCPOSteve says:

Pags, you mean on Manny’s speed sans helmet?

admin says:

Good work, Affeldt

mpags says:

Good move. Affeldt is scared.

SCPOSteve says:

We really need to kill the avatars on these chats. Even with them hidden I’m still downloading all 100 and something of them every time somebody posts and it’s killing me.

Dan says:

Did that do it, Steve?

mpags says:

I was referring to my verbal presentation.

admin says:

My wife asks me why its okay for guys to patch each other on the ass on the mound, but no where else. I can’t answer this one. Any help?

Dan says:

I say it’s okay anywhere. Why not?

SCPOSteve says:

Nope.

Jim Wailwander Knows Best says:

And here comes the micro-managing.

mpags says:

Did you see the new Japan stuff. What do you think?

Dan says:

Haven’t had a look at the free agent list, Pags.

admin says:

You can stop Avatars on your page by clicking the “Hide Avatars” button at the bottom of the current messages block.

mpags says:

Baseball is a friendly game. Guys get lonely at times!

Dan says:

Steve was in the Navy, so he might know. This true, Steve?

SCPOSteve says:

Did that admin, but it still downloads them all. I just can’t see them. What might I know since I’m in the Navy? Tough to follow the convo because I have to keep closing/reopening the chat.

Dan says:

Just a joke there, Steve. Sorry!

whipple11 says:

Ouch, Steve. Ouch.

admin says:

Pags and I were at the World Series party, and he was smacking everyone in the ass. Wendi Nix, Larry lucchino, Bob Tewksbury, the woman dispensing chowder, etc.

Dan says:

Tewksbury was famous for his arse. That’s all he was famous for.

SCPOSteve says:

If it’s ass-smacking your talking about, let’s just say the rules of male-on-male decorum are a bit different on a submarine

SCPOSteve says:

Hey, Tewks gave my Cardinals some pretty good years.

Dan says:

Great control pitcher, Tewks. I went to his alma mater for a year. St. Leo College…

whipple11 says:

How many innings does Schill go for 2nite?

SCPOSteve says:

Ok, here we go. What’s the Boston bullpen plan? Get Schilling far enough to limit it to Okajima and Papelbon? Timlin, maybe? Gagne only if you absolutely, positively have no other choice?

Dan says:

Yeah, I’d say you go right to Okajima and Papelbon. Each could go a couple of innings. No reason to mess around with Gagne tonight.

Dan says:

Shameless Taco Bell shill by Clayton there. How much do you think he was paid for that?

mpags says:

Jack Gillis former St. Leo coach and now Rockies scout.

Dan says:

Only went there for one semester. They had too many good 2B for me to get any PT.

Dan says:

Look at that creepy executive from Taco Bell! I can’t believe baseball is bowing to Big Taco!

admin says:

Steve,

Selecting “Hide Avatars” hid them all for me. Does this work for anyone else?

Admin (Adam)

admin says:

It would have been better if Ortiz had to steal the base.

SCPOSteve says:

How can you afford that?
Well, because a taco costs us approximately half a penny to produce and Americans are fat so they’ll order 10 more at cost!

Dan says:

I happen to be eating a real burrito right now, bought from one of our fine San Francisco area taquerias. I can tell you first hand, right now, that Taco Bell sucks.

admin says:

Well, said, Steve.

mpags says:

thanks for the chat, dogs gotta go out, the kids to bed, flight in a few hours.

Dan says:

Later, Pags.

mpags says:

Last inning for Schilling - got to be his last.

admin says:

Eat at Taco Bell and get yellow teeth, just like their VP.

SCPOSteve says:

Adam,

It hides them but watch the bottom left of your Internet Explorer. It counts down as it’s downloading all of the avatars even though you can’t see them.

whipple11 says:

Schilling has only once not gone 6 innings in his postseason career. that was Game 2 Vs the Tribe this year. 4.2

SCPOSteve says:

I could be eating my shoe and STILL tell you Taco Bell sucks….but I could go for a real burrito.

Jim Wailwander Knows Best says:

I went to St. Leo as well. Remember the Athletic Trainer J.R. Titsworth?

SCPOSteve says:

Later Pags, good to chat with you.

admin says:

Good luck, tomorrow, Mike. Do the same thing as yesterday. Just use the leverage we’re getting.

admin says:

Steve,

I’m not seeing that. Where is it?

Dan says:

I wouldn’t have let Schilling pitch to Helton. Day off tomorrow, fully rested pen. If Schilling needs to come out now, why let him face the go ahead run in the form of Helton?

SCPOSteve says:

At the bottom left of my IE window. Every time the chat refreshes.
(xx items remaining) Downloading picture http://….

Number counts down from total number of posts in the chat. Needless to say, it’s getting big.

Dan says:

More drug commercials.

SCPOSteve says:

In other sports news. VT up 10-0 with 5 mins left.

admin says:

Steve,

We’ll look into it. Thanks for the heads-up.

SCPOSteve says:

Why the reverse platoon advantage against Okajima?

Dan says:

Don’t know if that’s his career tendency. I doubt it. Sample size, probably. This can happen when you only give up 50 hits in an entire season.

whipple11 says:

I agree with you Dan. If its time, its time. Also Schilling lasted only 3IP vs the Yanks Game 1 04 ALCS. So that makes 2 times he hasnt lasted 6 innings in the playoffs

Jim Wailwander Knows Best says:

Troy Aiken does not strike me as a Boston Fan. That was odd.

Dan says:

Born in California. LIke a lot of people, he’s probably been a Sox fan since 2004.

SCPOSteve says:

Yeah, it’s a small sample. Only 89 LH AB and 159 RH AB, but was wondering if anybody (like the analyst) might conjecture as to a pitch he throws or a delivery characteristic that might explain it.

admin says:

No way Aikman is a Red Sox fan. that was just to give fox a reason for showing him.

Jim Wailwander Knows Best says:

Okajima has the Shinto pitch working…”all over Japan tonight, Pitchers are practicing Shintos.”

SCPOSteve says:

EXACTLY.

SCPOSteve says:

Anybody know how many tickets Fox steals, I mean “receives”, from MLB to put product placement bodies in the seats?

SCPOSteve says:

Back to baseball, I’m going to assume Hurdle uses his “A” bullpen guys since they haven’t pitched since approximately spring training, right?

Jim Wailwander Knows Best says:

wait until they show Dane Cook in his Boston hat. I will throw up in my recycle bin if I have to see him again.

Dan says:

Stolen base is in order here. One run lead, bottom of 6th, the extra run adds a lot of win probability. I’d do that instead of bunt.

admin says:

more tacos?!

SCPOSteve says:

Meaning, we’ve gotta see Fuentes and Corpas tonight even if they’re behind.

Jim Wailwander Knows Best says:

So which biblical character will hurdle call from the pen?

Dan says:

Hey, Herges played it conservative…just like the rest of the team!

Jim Wailwander Knows Best says:

why bunt there?

whipple11 says:

Being from the Boston area, I can honestly say that we are not fans of people who refer to themselves as part of the Red Sox “Nation”. Dead giveaway they are bandwagon fans

admin says:

Evidently fans are idiots! Sit Ortiz?

admin says:

Tim wants to sit Ortiz?

Dan says:

It’s because they are overrating the need for good defense at first base. You absolutely cannot take Ortiz out of the lineup.

SCPOSteve says:

Well, normally I’d agree but it’s Lugo. I don’t think having Lugo bunt really counts as a sacrifice considering how many runs he eats anyway.

Dan says:

Lugo is bad, but he’s not that bad. If you’re going to bunt you might as well steal before that. The bunt to move a runner to third there is a way better play. Not smart, even with Lugo.

whipple11 says:

Because Lugo either strikes out or grounds into double plays. Either of the 2 dont advance the runner. I hate the bunt too, but the alternative isnt much better with Lugo at bat

Dan says:

I disagree. Steal Ellsbury, and THEN bunt. Bunting to move him to second is a waste of an out. If you think Lugo is too much of a double play risk, send Ellsbury first!

Jim Wailwander Knows Best says:

Its that same overrating of defense at first that keeps Sean Casey’s career alive.

Jim Wailwander Knows Best says:

The only question is can Ortiz’s knee handle playing first? he has been hobbled.

SCPOSteve says:

I’ll buy that Dan.
As an aside, while Youkilis may be hot and therefore hitting as well as Ortiz over the last 10 games, there is no way his defense makes up for the difference between the two as hitters.

Dan says:

Agreed, Steve. That part is a no-brainer. There could be things we don’t know. Ortiz might be grimacing through a lot of pain, and it might be just completely impractical to play him in the field I don’t know. Does anyone know if he’s been working out at 1B lately?

whipple11 says:

Touche’ Dan. I just get sick in my stomach anytime that Lugo or Crisp is at bat.

Dan says:

I can certainly understand that. Remember that he is something like a .280 career hitter. He’s had some painful at bats, but he isn’t Craig Monroe either.

whipple11 says:

Ortiz has been in pain the last month. With two cortizone shots to relieve the pain, you can tell that his normal “crouch” at the plate isnt the same. Im not sure he can last playing first place, with a bum knee. But this is the Series right? All or nothing

Dan says:

Sure, and he’s supposed to go right to operating table after the season ends.

SCPOSteve says:

Yeah, I was just being hyperbolic on Lugo. BTW. BC scores TD, recovers on-side kick, inside the 20 with 45 secs left.

Dan says:

Throw some more cortizone in that knee and get him out there. It’s the World Series!

Dan says:

Or not.

SCPOSteve says:

Here comes the “C” word. Place your bets. Clips out of commercial of Ortiz being clutch?

Dan says:

I’ll second that call, Steve…

SCPOSteve says:

I bet he’s so clutch he doesn’t need any of those erectile dysfunction pills.

Dan says:

He gives good clutch.

Dan says:

Is this now the gayest chat ever?

SCPOSteve says:

Getting there in a hurry

Dan says:

That was so un-clutch.

whipple11 says:

Dan I just caought HEP B from this chat room

admin says:

We’ve got clutch!

Dan says:

Actually, let me rephrase that, since I’m sure this isn’t the gayest chat ever. This is the gayest BASEBALL chat ever.

Dan says:

Question for the commercial break: What is your favorite Judy Garland picture?

admin says:

Maria is hot.

admin says:

Tyson’s article on Helton has been posted. Thanks, Tyson.

SCPOSteve says:

Ok guys, had fun but I’ve got an early wake up call in the morning. Hope we do this again soon.

Dan says:

What the hell is going on here? Who walks away from a 1-run World Series game?

admin says:

Good night, everyone. Thanks to Dan for moderating. This has gone really well. How about we do this again on Friday? I’ll promote it more so we can get more people.

Dan says:

Where is everyone going? Am I like an hour behind or something?

Dan says:

Okay, but it’s time to curtail those anyway. Let’s stick to baseball.

Any Judy Garland movies. What!

SCPOSteve says:

Not walking away from the game. Just the need to have a laptop active and sitting on top of me. Plus I’m running out of witty gay themed remarks

SCPOSteve says:

Later. I’ll be back Saturday if there’s a chat.

Dan says:

Okajima is just filthy.

Dan says:

Time for the jingoism display.

whipple11 says:

I concure on Okajima. Great pick up

Dan says:

How come the Tigers can’t find guys like that. He wasn’t even signed for that much! The Tigers got Masao Kida.

admin says:

Boyz II Fat Guy

Dan says:

Bel Biv Devoe tomorrow…

Dan says:

Singing God Bless America here is an unfair advantage to the Rockies.

Dan says:

Thank god, no wardrobe malfunction.

Dan says:

Tim McCarver saying that Francona is facing a tough decision - whether or not to replace Ramirez in the field after this inning. Really? There’s no way you replace Ramirez in a one run ballgame. Am I right?

Dan says:

Absurd pre-recorded package on Papelbon here. This stuff is getting out of control. Totally insufferable.

whipple11 says:

Dan, I agree. He has a game changing bat. Cant let Ramirez leave the game

whipple11 says:

The ability to change a game with one swing of the bat is how the Sox make a living at Fenway. Manny is a big part of that.

Dan says:

It would be brutal to have Crisp come up in the 10th inning, hitting from the cleanup spot. As usual, McCarver is spouting nonsense. They really can’t find anyone better than this moron?

Dan says:

Absolutely. Day off tomorrow, and it’s the big stage. No question.

whipple11 says:

Dan if Okajima struggles to get out of the inning are you bringing in Papelbon for a 5/6 out save?

morris says:

alright everyone, i just got here. what’d i miss?

morris says:

i’m on a black and white tv, so can someone tell me: are the rockies wearing their purple uniforms or their greys?

Dan says:

Hilarious!

morris says:

it used to be back in the day relievers could pitch five or six, even seven innings. this pitchcount nonsense is exactly that–nonsense!

Dan says:

Those were the halcyon days, Morris. I remember when Sandy Koufax would start both ends of a doubleheader and also save both games.

Macleod says:

Here’s Papelboner to close the door. Booyah!

whipple11 says:

Morris, I have no TV and thats better than having a black and white one! JK

morris says:

i think they just showed okajima’s dad in the crowd.

morris says:

man! what a gritty play! pedroia sure knows how to play the game right.

morris says:

Not on Yom Kippur, though. I’m looking at you Sean Green!

Macleod says:

Holliday looked like a beach whale flailing for the bag. That’s pitiful.

Dan says:

How does Holliday get picked off there? He might have good christian values, but he’s dumb as a bag of hammers.

morris says:

Sorry Whipple. That sucks. Well, i can tell you there’s a pretty healthy crowd. and whatever they’re saying on the radio is true–holiday looked like a potted plant out there.

Dan says:

I’m having trouble processing how Holliday could have been picked off just now. Maybe he forgot how many outs there were. And what inning it was. And the score. And the fact that it’s the World Series. And that he’s currently part of a team trying to play a game of base-ball.

morris says:

Man, Holiday looked like a Scotsman with a sexy sheep to the right of him and a bottle of free booze to the left. He didn’t know what to do. So he just froze.

whipple11 says:

How good is Papelbon in innning and game ending situations? back to back 35 saves seasons is solid. But it doesent do him justice when you need a strikeout to end an inning. Can he become one of the best ever at closing games?

Dan says:

He’s great at picking off halfwits.

morris says:

Jacoby looks like Hilary Swank in Boys Don’t Cry.

morris says:

When she’s a boy, of course.

Dan says:

Lugo does it again! Now he’s booting grounder while at bat.

morris says:

Manny Corpas doesn’t look gritty enough to get Dusty out. Dusty really knows how to play the game the right way. He’s all hustle.

Dan says:

Yeah, Pedroia’s a lunch pail kind of guy.

Dan says:

Hey, while we’re in commercial, let me ask you guys. Are you familiar with any options for erectile dysfunction, heart trouble, and alopecia? Thanks!

morris says:

wow, wanda sykes career is in the toilet.

Dan says:

Oh, it’s not so bad. Had you told her before that she would be playing an apple at age 40, she might have pictured herself handing out flyers in front of a restaurant chain.

morris says:

So is Manny Corpas’s.

morris says:

man they are going to crucify Holliday when he gets back to Denver.

Dan says:

Yeah, it’s been nigh on 2000 years since they’ve had the privilege.

morris says:

i want to see that guy’s number 2.

Dan says:

It’s breathtaking.

morris says:

Of course, it’ll only be three pitches before Ortiz puts on the champagne goggles.

Dan says:

I’ve known a couple of Red Sox groupies, and I can assure you that Ortiz almost always has on his champagne goggles.

Dan says:

It’s because of the avatars. I have no idea what the deal is with those.

morris says:

I can find the monster with the right stroke… and a fistful of cialis.

morris says:

this site is slower than a retarded turtle.

Dan says:

Before the Helton strikeout, Boston win expectancy was 87%, not facotring in Papelbon…

Dan says:

92% after Helton

morris says:

Is anyone still on this chat. Or is just me and this “Dan” moron?

I just scrolled back to the beginning of the chat. Some pretty smart prognosticating there.

Dan says:

Just you and I, shitbird.

morris says:

Yeah, Helton really bit the big Choate there tonight.

whipple11 says:

One out away.

morris says:

Seeing the difference between the national and american leagues makes me realize that there really is two americas…

Dan says:

97%…

Dan says:

Win expectancy has not hit 100%.

Thanks for stopping by, Tyson!

Dan says:

Did you see Papelbon just get his pound shaken, Morris?

whipple11 says:

Thanks for having me. Take it easy guys. Have a good one!!

Macleod says:

Peace out, Dan. Hope to see you in D to the C this weekend.

morris says:

This guy is a geniuos.

morris says:

We just did what we had to do.

morris says:

we just take it one day at a time.

With the Boston Red Sox scorching the Colorado Rockies pitching for 13 runs in Game One, it was up to their right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez to quiet the Boston bats, or at least enough to give the offense a fighting chance.

The 23 year-old Dominican answered the call to arms, limiting Boston to two runs and three hits through 4 2/3 innings – a remarkable achievement considering how hot the Red Sox bats have been over the past four games of the postseason. But as the Rockies head home, down two games, after losing 2-1 Thursday night, it was their offense who pushed them a foot deeper into the grave. Matt Holliday, in particular, is to blame. He was picked off first base in the 8th inning – an unconscionable base running blunder, especially with slugger Todd Helton standing at the plate with a chance to put the Rockies ahead with one swing of the bat.

Padre fans, no doubt, relished watching the Rockies left-fielder finally being called out by an umpire, knowing he’s largely responsible for the Padres, and some would say unfairly, sitting out another post-season. 

Game two was a reminder to those who think the Red Sox are all about violent swings, long singles, Manny being Manny uncivil acts, an unfathomable amount of extra base hits, and final scores resembling NFL shootouts. Boston reminded us all that they can pitch too, and manufacture runs, just like any small market club.

The Sox had all the small ball ingredients Thursday – an essential part of any championship club. There were no majestic swings over the Green Monster, merely workmanlike single runs in the 4th (a sacrifice fly by Jason Varitek to score Mike Lowell), then a hard-hit double to deep left by Lowell in the 5th (to score David “Big Papi” Ortiz), to put Boston up 2-1. As it would turn out, that’s all the American League champs would need.

Curt Schilling was at his grizzly October best last night on bitter night at Fenway, pitching another monumental game. He now carries an 11-2 post season record— the highest winning percentage in post-season history among pitchers with at least 10 decisions.

The right-handed veteran, who may very well have pitched his last game in a Sox uniform, made it count on a night his teammates’ bats finally went cold—pitching 5 1/3 innings, giving up four hits, two walks, and surrendering one run. It was enough to set the table for the Japanese flamethrower Hideki Okajima, who mowed down seven straight Rockie batters, striking out four. All this from a pitcher who had to be shut down on September 20th due to a tired arm after allowing a career-high four runs, in one-third of an inning in an crushing 8-7 loss to the New York Yankees. 

It only took Jonathan Palpabon 16 pitches to finish of the Rockies, recording his first World Series save, to send the series back to Colorado, with the Sox up 2-0. Okajima and Palpabon working their magic last night, bringing back memories of the invincible one-two punch of Mariano Rivera and John Wetteland during the New York Yankees 1996 world championship season.

So while the Rockies try to figure out a way to resurrect some offense, having scored only two runs over the last 18 innings, Boston’s biggest predicament will be which one of their big boppers, Ortiz or Kevin Youkilis will have to sit out Game three, when Terry Francona won’t have the luxury of penciling in a designated hitter in a national league park. What a nice problem to have.

www.billlucey.com

The Colorado Rockies are at the center of the baseball stage. One would argue that you can’t be overlooked when playing in the World Series. Yet, the face of the Rockies franchise, Todd Helton, has seemingly been over looked his entire career. He’s always been regarded as a good hitter on a bad team.

It’s tough playing for a team that’s not in a major city or one which is not in annual contention come October. Todd has put in the time in Denver and the city loves him for it. It’s time for everyone to realize how truely special of a player Todd Helton is.

Helton came into the league in 1997 but didn’t have a chance to play a full season until 98. That’s the year he came in 2nd place in the NL ROY to none other than Kerry Wood of the Chicago Cubs. Kerry had 233 strikeouts in 167 innings pitched. Impressive indeed. He picked up 13 wins that year for the Cubs along with a 20 strike out game, which is about as rare as (insert friends name here) having a steady girlfriend.

Helton had a more than respectable 167 hits, 25HRs, 37 2B’s and 97 RBI, while hitting .315. His OB% was .380 and he SLG .530 that rookie year. All in all, a hell of a year for a first year player with promise of much more for years to come. 1999 was much like 1998 except he upped all of his offensive categories which included a 35 HR season, 113 RBI and a AVG of .320. His slugging went up 50+ points and his OB% rose along with it.

So far the man has averaged 25+ HRs over 95+RBI’s, 35+ 2B with a .300+ AVG. Can anyone tell me who else has done that to start a  career?

• Joe DiMaggio 36,37
• Hal Trosky 34
• Ted Williams 39
• Zeke Bonura 34
• Dale Alexander 29
• Orlando Cepeda 58,59
• Nomaahh 97-99
• Todd Helton 98-04 (7 years in a row to start a career, tied with Pujols as most all time)  
• Albert Pujols 01-07 ( co-holds record with Helton)

As you can see that’s pretty solid company, never mind the fact that he and Albert Pujols have the two most productive and consistent offensive starts to careers in the HISTORY of the sport. Back to Helton’s 2000 season.

The stats read:

• 216 hits (1st NL)
• 138 runs (2ND NL)
• 59 doubles (1st NL)
• 42 HR (7th NL)
• 147 RBI (1st NL)
• .372 AVG (1st NL)
• .698 SLG % (1st NL)
• .463 OB % ( 1st NL)
• OPS 1.162 (1st NL)
• Total Bases 405 (1st NL)
• BB 103 (4th NL)
• IBB 23 (2ND NL)
• Runs Created 192 (1st NL)
• Extra Base hits 103 (1st NL)
• Times on Base 323 (1st NL)

To give you idea of what we are talking about as far as all times seasons go, this is maybe the second greatest offensive season in the history of overall performance in either the NL or AL. With some more research I found a couple other to compare.

Chuck Klein for the Phillies in 1930 had one of the greatest seasons of all time.

• 250 Hits
• 158 Runs
• 59 Doubles
• 40 HR
• 170 RBI
• .386 AVG
• 54 BB
• .436 OBP

He didn’t walk as much as Helton and his OBP was lower as well, but anyone can clearly see that not only was his 2000 hitting campaign impressive but it ranks with the some of the all time greats. Klein though didn’t win the MVP that year, just like Helton. The Iron Horse Lou Gehrig had a season in 1927 that is very similar to Helton’s 00 campaign and ended up winning the MVP that year, his first of two. Hank Greenberg is the last person in 1940 to have similar stats to Helton. And, surprise, Greenberg won the MVP that year, his second and last MPV.

Now to get down to the nitty gritty. With a season like Helton’s  in 00 you might think to yourself, “OK, he didn’t win the MVP but he must of came in 2ND right?” WRONG. 3rd WRONG 4th? WRONG! The man came in 5th place in MVP voting that year because he was on a 4th place team hovering around .500 all year. One of the greatest offensive outings in the history of baseball, unnoticed because he played on a crappy team. Jeff Kent ended up winning the MVP that year, followed by Barry Bonds in 2nd place, Mike Piazza in 3rd and Jim Edmonds in 4th. To say the least I’m sure that baseball purists cried themselves to sleep after that announcement.

To make matters worse Helton put together the same offensive year in 2001, mind you with a lower AVG and more HR. He finished 9th in MVP voting that year. The closest he came to winning the MVP was in that magical 2000. He never again cracked the top five in MVP voting.

To put into perspective, Todd Helton had back to back seasons of .335+ AVG, 50+ doubles, 40+HR’s and 145+ RBI. He’s the only person to ever accomplish this two times in the span of a career and he did it in back to back years. Those to do it once are Greenberg, Gehrig and Klein. Helton is the only one if them not to win an MVP award.

Todd Helton is going to the World Series for the first time in his career. I am writing this in hopes that fans can fully understand and appreciate a man that has carried a franchise for years with little to no national credit. I’m no writer or sports analyst, but I love sports and baseball more specifically. Todd Helton deserves his due, and I hope I have brought light to a great player and even a better man.

Curt Schilling

• Right-handed starting pitcher
• Boston Red Sox

Colorado Rockies Outlook

Pitcher Plan

Schilling will be dealing with a very different opponent in the World Series as opposed to the ALCS. Both Colorado and Cleveland have aggressive hitting line-ups, but unlike Cleveland, the Rockies are on the whole good strike two hitters. The Rockies won’t swing and miss at as many breaking balls, and they certainly won’t miss as many fastballs.

Against the Rockies, Schilling will need to get ahead in the count with different pitches. If he stays with the fastball and just attempts to locate it, the Rockies offense will put the ball in play. Schilling also must keep the ball down in the zone because the Rockies are a good high ball hitting team.

Look for Schilling to go to his split finger as an out-pitch earlier in the game and earlier in the count if the score is close. With a big lead he tends to challenge with his fastball and breaking pitches more often.

Best Match-up

Schilling will get some of the younger players (shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and outfielder Seth Smith) to chase his first pitch fastballs. Schilling has great mound presence and he can intimidate some of the younger guys. Rookies tend to be more anxious at the plate, especially during the postseason.

Worst Match-up

Outfielder Matt Holliday and first baseman Todd Helton will be a nasty one-two punch against Schilling. Both hitters can handle all of Schilling’s pitches, and Helton will use the Fenway green monster versus the outside pitches every chance he can. There’s a reason Theo & Co. wanted Helton so badly in the past offseason.

Keys to Success

1. Schilling must locate his fastball away from the aggressive Rockies hitters. This will enable him to pitch to contact more effectively and lower his pitch count.
2. He will need to use his slower (off-speed) pitches more effectively out of the strike zone when ahead in the count.
3. He needs to keep the ball down in the zone because the Rockies are a good high ball hitting team.
4. Schilling must pay attention to Rockies base runners, especially center fielder Willy Taveras and second baseman Kazuo Matsui.

Full Scouting Report

Overall

Curt Schilling is an Elite major league pitcher. However, at 40 he has lost velocity and life on his fastball. He continues to make good adjustments during the middle of the game with his other off-speed-speed pitches, but he is not getting away with mistakes over the middle of the plate like he used to. Schilling is one of the best competitors in the game. He doesn’t like to come out of games and doesn’t like to lose. He’s got a lot to say off the field, but he’s a big game pitcher and looks like he still has something left for the postseason.

Schilling rates a 65 on the scouting 20-80 scale, which evaluates raw pitching tools. By comparison, Johan Santana of the Minnesota Twins gets a 75. Based on his raw pitching tools combined with his historical performance, we categorize Schilling as “Elite” on a marginal/key role/average/good/premium/elite scale.

Strengths

Though he is no longer Boston’s ace (Josh Beckett earned that title this year), Schilling is a big game type of pitcher. He has excellent mound presence and wants to be the guy with the ball and the game on the line. He has the ability to adjust to hitters in the middle of a game and he works with five pitches including a plus out-pitch with his split finger. Schilling does a very good job of mixing his pitch sequences.

Weaknesses

Schilling has lost velocity off his fastball and needs more command to be effective. He can no longer go as deep into games as he once did. Defensively, he doesn’t get off the mound as well as he used to.

Fastball (87-93 mph)

• Movement: His fastball used to be his best pitch. Now it’s a straight fastball with little life. He’ll use a two-seam and four-seam fastball. At times, Schilling will cut his fastball inside to lefties.
• Command: He’ll use his fastball to both sides of the plate. He will not hesitate to throw it inside off the plate to make room for his off-speed pitches.
• Plan: Lately he’s been adding velocity to his fastball late in the count. He tends to start hitters away with a low 87/88 mph then goes to 91/92 mph with two strikes.

Cut Fastball (85-88 mph)

• Movement: When he doesn’t have a good fastball he will use a cut fastball. It is a small cutter but he commands it well.
• Command: He only uses it to his glove-side and will either keep it on the edge or throw it inside to left-handed hitters.
• Plan: He will use his cut fastball inside to left-handed hitters to make room on the outer half of the plate for his off-speed pitches. He uses it mainly in hitter counts (1-0, 2-0).

Curve (74-78 mph)

• Movement: It is an average curve with good 12-6 rotation and average depth to it.
• Command: Schilling commands his curve when it is in the middle of the zone. He doesn’t expect to get a lot of swings from this pitch. Hitters are unlikely to see two curves in the same at-bat.
• Plan: He will use his curve early in the count and rarely tries to finish a hitter with it unless he’s a bad breaking ball hitter. He won’t throw as many curve balls first time around the order unless he gets hit hard.

Slider (81-85 mph)

• Movement: When it is right, Schilling’s slider has average depth and quick late break to it.
• Command: Many times he is unable to be consistent with it because he can’t maintain his release point out front. He uses it to right-handers as an out-pitch out of the zone glove-side. He tends to throw more strikes with his slider to his arm-side.
• Plan: He throws his slider only when he feels he can throw it with some depth. Lately he is using it more to backdoor left-handed hitters when ahead in the count.

Change-up (81-84 mph)

• Movement: Recently he’s shown much more confidence in his changeup and has been getting more swings and misses from it. It is a small split grip type change-up that he is able to throw for strikes.
• Command: Schilling is able to throw his change-up for strikes and most are near the center of the plate.
• Plan: He’s not afraid to throw it back to back, and he’ll use it in hitter counts most times. More consistent speed has created more deception for the batter.

Split Finger (80-84 mph)

• Movement: His split is his best out-pitch, and if he doesn’t have good movement with it, he is in trouble. His pitch usually has good downward movement and it will show small tail.
• Command: He does a good job of commanding this pitch down in the strike zone. When his split is right, it will be a ball down and - of the strike zone.
• Plan: Schilling needs to be in good shape to throw this pitch effectively. This allows him to consistently get to his proper release point, which enables him to keep the ball down and out of the zone with good movement.

Pitching Mechanics (A)

Schilling has great awareness of his mechanics. He is able to make adjustments in the middle of a game, and over the years he hasn’t needed a lot of coaching. He has been able to maintain good balance, and he knows the importance of a good follow-through.

Ubaldo Jimenez

• Right-Handed starting pitcher
• Colorado Rockies

Boston Red Sox Outlook

Pitcher Plan

What is the playoff plan for a rookie pitcher who can throw a 100 mph fastball? It’s pretty simple: throw the heat and mix in a few off-speed pitches. When his fastball hits 100 mph, the off-speed pitches don’t even need to be high quality; they just must be sufficient to prevent the Boston Red Sox from sitting on the Jimenez’s fastball.

Jimenez is most similar to Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers, who beat the Red Sox earlier this season. He won by using his hard mid-90’s fastball to get ahead in the count and getting outs with his curve and change-up. Jimenez is capable of the same type of game and producing similar results. The Red Sox collectively have had just one at-bat against Jimenez, so look for their hitters to be especially patient the first time through the order as they try to feel him out. Lack of familiarity should be an advantage to Jimenez.

Best Match-up

Big swings won’t catch up to Jimenez’s fastball. Second baseman Dustin Pedroia and right fielder JD Drew have the biggest swings in the Sox line-up, and they’ll have their hands full. To catch up to Jimenez’s fastball Pedroia and Drew would have to change their entire approach by starting their swing earlier, which makes them susceptible to Jimenez’s off-speed pitches.

Worst Match-up

Good fastball hitters such as designated hitter David Ortiz and third baseman Mike Lowell will be a big problem for Jimenez unless he can get his off-speed pitches over the plate. Throwing strikes with his breaking balls will keep the good fastball hitters honest and not allow them to cheat on Jimenez’s fastball.

Keys to Success

1. Don’t think too much. Throw the heat and mix in some off-speed pitches.
2. Lean on his catcher and coaches. Jimenez is a rookie, so he should look to them to compensate for his inexperience.
3. Be aggressive with the heat. Go high and inside on a couple of pitches early to set the tone. Getting ahead of the Sox hitters with strike one is crucial to success against Boston.

Full Scouting Report

Ubaldo Jimenez is a 23-year-old right-handed starter from the Dominican Republic. In his rookie campaign in 2007, he went 4-4 with a 4.28 ERA. He struck out 68 in 82 innings and allowed opponents a .228 batting average. He has a good, durable pitcher’s body (6’4″ 200 lbs) and is capable of throwing 100 mph.

Jimenez is pitching at the major league level, but is not yet fully developed. Of course, that’s to be expected with most 23-year-olds. Though he is learning on the job, he is able to get away with many mistakes because of his pure arm strength.

Jimenez rates a “70″ on the scouting 20-80 scale, which evaluates raw pitching tools.  By comparison, Johan Santana of the Minnesota Twins gets a 75.  Based on his raw pitching tools including the scouting evaluation of his historical performance, we currently categorize Jimenez as “Average” on our category marginal/key role/average/good/premium/elite scale. With proper development and additional success in the majors, he projects as a premium pitcher.

Strengths

Jimenez has a power arm with an excellent fastball he can throw between 93 and 100 mph. His slider is thrown at 87-92 mph with a sharp late break.

Weaknesses

Because he has below average control, Jimenez walks too many batters. In 2007 he had a walks/9 innings rate of 4.1. Because he is inexperienced, he uses predictable pitch sequences.

Fastball (93-100 mph)

• Movement: His fastball is usually straight, but it shows plus life through the strike zone. Jimenez’s fastball will show tailing action to his arm-side from time to time but not by design.
• Command: He has below average command of this pitch. He attempts to throw it over the plate in no specific area.
• Plan: His plan is to throw strikes with his fastball and establish it early in the game. The majority of his pitches the first time through the batting order will be fastballs.

Slider (87-93)

• Movement: His slider shows good late break to it. It is sharp with plus depth.
• Command: Jimenez attempts to throw this pitch to his glove-side. His command is below average.
• Plan: If Jimenez can throw his slider over the plate it will end up being a very good out-pitch for him.

Change-up (83-87)

• Movement: His change-up has tailing action to it and small sink to his arm-side.
• Command: Jimenez commands his change-up best to his arm-side and it is used down in the strike zone.
• Plan: Rarely uses this pitch to right handed hitters. Jimenez will use his change-up in middle counts (1-1, 2-1).

Curve (75-80)

• Movement: Jimenez doesn’t throw his curveball very much; it is a work in progress. His curve will show a 12-6 and 11-5 type break. It has good depth with average rotation.
• Command: He attempts to throw his pitch over the plate to no specific area
• Plan: He will throw his curve in middle counts. It is not used as an out-pitch very often but he will attempt to change the eye level of the hitters with his curveball.

Pitching Mechanics (C)

Jimenez is athletic and can get away with a few flaws in his delivery. He is able to get good arm extension on his take away but it is not fluid, evidenced by a quick stab behind him with his throwing hand. The biggest issue with Jimenez’s delivery is that his front side opens too fast and too soon. This puts a lot of stress on his right shoulder to maintain his arm-slot. The Rockies have a good player development program and in time this will be cured. Due to Ubaldo’s inexperience and the fact that the World Series are on national TV (meaning extra pressure), expect his fundamentals to be little off.

Whether it was the Colorado Rockies eight-day layoff, making it look too easy sweeping their way through the first two rounds of the playoffs; or whether it was Josh Beckett, holding opponents to a .160 batting average and a .235 slugging percentage during this playoff run, it’s pretty clear that unless Colorado snaps out their slumber in a hurry, this series might be over before it really began.

 

The 36,733 Sox fans packed into Fenway on a cloudy drizzly night saw the American League champs begin where they left off just three nights ago, pounding their opposing pitching into the ground, as Game 1 of the 103rd World Series ended in a 13-1 shellacking of the Colorado Rockies. 

 

From the opening bell, Boston came out swinging, delivering the knockout punch in the first, when Becket set a World Series record by striking out the side. The punching continued in the bottom of the inning, when rookie second baseman Dustin Pedroia drove Jeff Francis’s second offering of the night high and deep over the left field wall. Two more runs would cross the plate, giving the pride of Vancouver, British Columbia an early indication he was in for a short, bruising night of work. Five Rockie pitchers would follow Francis to the mound before this opener mercifully came to an end after three hours and thirty 33 minutes of Red Sox batting practice.

 

By the time it was over, Boston had pushed across 13 runs, banged out 17 hits, including six doubles. And, who knows. If Coco Crisp and Alex Cora didn’t come in off the bench, this game might still be in progress.

 

It’s hard to imagine after watching the explosion ricocheting off the Boston bats that the Sox will have to exert much effort winning their second World Series in four years. They’ve now outscored their opponents 43-6 in the last four games. But Game One drubbings can be deceiving, as the 1996 Atlanta Braves and 1959 Chicago White Sox teams can tell you.

 The 1996 New York Yankees refused to use their week-long layoff between the playoffs and World Series, as an excuse for being embarrassed by the Braves in Game One’s 12-1 pounding.  The Chicago White Sox blanked the Los Angeles Dodgers 11-0 in Game one of the 1959 World Series

 

Both the Yankees and Dodgers stormed back to win the 1996 and 1959 World Series respectively, so it’s not over yet for the overachieving Rockies. They’re only down a game.

You sort of get the feeling, though, that Boston feels like they dodged a fatal bullet against the Indians in the ALCS. They found themselves down three games to one and on the brink of elimination before mounting another historic comeback.  

 

Letting the Rockies steal one Thursday night before heading to the Silver State doesn’t seem to be in the Sox plans, but that all rides on the shoulders of their 41 year-old blogger and big game pitcher Curt Shilling, who will take to the mound against Ubaldo Jimenez, a rookie from the Dominican Republic, in Game Two.

 

However this series ends, Beckett has clearly established himself as one of the true greats of the game, right along Sandy Koufax and Bob Gibson. The Boston right-hander came into Game One with a 5-2 postseason record, and a 1.78 ERA, including three shutouts in eight starts, just one shy of Christy Mathewson’s record.

 

After striking out five of the first six Colorado batters, Beckett looked as if he was on the verge of passing Bob Gibson’s 17 strike-out performance in Game One of the 1968 World Series, but he settled for nine whiffs, surrendering only a run through seven innings of work.

 

So while the Rockies attempt to regroup from Game One’s hammering, they probably don’t want to know that history hasn’t been kind to losers in the opening game.

 

The winner of the 1st game of the World Series has gone on to win the fall classic 62 times, including nine of the last ten World Series, beginning in 1997. The 2002 champions, the Anaheim Angels, have been the only recent exception, having dropped the series opener to The San Francisco Giants.

Editor’s note: Steve submitted this article prior to Game 1

I’m hot baby! I picked Colorado and Boston to win their respective League Championships, and they did. I’ll admit I was a little off on the number of games, but if you knew my track record on predicting the results of sporting events you’d give me a break on that. Why am I so bad at game and/or series predictions? Simple. The law of averages doesn’t apply in these situations and I’m too stubborn to accept this fact.

Anything can, and will, happen in a single game or short series. Players will get hot (Youkilis: 500/576/929) and players will go cold (Hafner: 148/207/296). There is no rhyme or reason to it; it’s all just part of the game. Nobody in their right mind would think that Kevin Youkilis could maintain this level of performance for an entire season. We know he’s going to slow down; we just don’t know when the slow down is going to happen.

Now having said all that, I refuse to believe it. I know it’s true that a seven game series is too small a sample size to draw any meaningful conclusions, but I continue to think I can do enough analysis, find some undiscovered pattern, to correctly predict a playoff series.

So how did I correctly predict the winning team in both LCSs? I winged it. I guessed. I ignored all the stats. I made no attempt to stack up the respective strengths and weaknesses of the teams and come to some sort of logical conclusion. For this I make no apologies. As far as I’m concerned I finally learned my lesson.

My World Series prediction is Boston in 5 games. I support this prediction with absolutely no analysis. I like the Rockies. I think they have a good young baseball team that does a lot of things right. I just think Boston is a little better and I think the fact that the Rockies haven’t played a game in 12 days matters.

As the World Series is upon us, some serious questions come to mind about the Red Sox line up.  More specifically, what are they going to do about David Ortiz and the no DH rule once they visit Coors field?

 

Ortiz has to play first, that in its self is obvious. But who is the odd man out? It’s going to be hard to sit Mike Lowell and the great bat he has had during this playoff run (.333, 1 HR, 18 RBI), never mind the record setting glove he carries at third base.

 

 

Kevin Youkilis is by far having a better time at the plate than JD Drew (with the exception of Drew’s record setting Game 6 of the ALCS. Drew now holds the record for most RBI’s (five) in a game six of an ALCS and became the first player in a game 6 of an ALCS to hit a grand slam to put his team in the lead. Can you absorb the loss of Drew’s defense for Youk’s bat?

 

The Rockies make a living at Coors with extra base hits (289) compared to away (231). So can the Sox really afford to have Youkilis (who did play left field for Manny in 2006) play in the outfield? Crisp seams all but gone for the series, benched and abandoned after Franconia could only take so many inning ending double play groundouts and strikeouts. It was either him or Lugo and Crisp can be more of a situational player with the added luxury of fast rising Ellsbury in center field.

 

Let’s not forget about Bobby Kielty either, so that leaves 2 OF on the bench for the Sox to pinch hit and pinch run in game dependent situations. It’s almost a lock that Manny will be in left field, Ellsbury in center field, but who will be in right field?

 

The Rockies took the series this year against the Sox 2-1 and it was in Boston. So they haven’t had to make this personnel decision before. And mind you they have the luxury of an extra outfielder to play the bench and pinch hit in certain situations. They also didn’t have Ellsbury as an impact player until the end of the season, which does shake up the line-up now compared to prior intra-league division games.

 

I have no idea what they are going to do, but I would love to hear some suggestions. Someone is going to have to sit or be a situational dependent player. Is it going to be Drew or Youkilis? How big of a role or any does Kielty and Crisp play?

Jeff Francis

• Left-handed starting pitcher
• Colorado Rockies

Boston Red Sox Outlook

Pitching Plan

Against the Red Sox, Francis will need to keep his fastball down in the strike zone early in the count, and he will need to get strike one with his first pitch. When ahead in the count he can use his change-up and curve out of the strike zone to get Sox hitters to chase. Most of the Boston lineup will be taking the first pitch and quite possibly the first strike. As a team, the Sox see a lot of pitches.

For Francis to pitch well he will need to get ahead of Sox hitters and identify their hitting hot zones as relayed to them by Rockies advanced scouts. Francis will need to stay away from those hot zones and let his excellent defense play as they have all season.

Best Match-up

Francis will do well against aggressive fastball hitters who have difficulty adjusting to off-speed pitches. For the Red Sox that means outfielders JD Drew and Jacoby Ellsbury.

Worst Match-up

Left fielder Manny Ramirez and first baseman Kevin Youkilis are capable of using the entire field, and Manny is hitting the low pitch very well. Both are patient and see a lot of pitches. Against a pitcher who relies on deception, seeing a lot of pitches gives a hitter more opportunity to identify the pitcher’s deceptive technique and adjust to it. Deception is most effective when it’s not seen much.

Keys to Success

1. Francis should avoid his curve against Manny Ramirez and third baseman Mike Lowell.
2. He should use his slant breaking pitch against Drew, designated hitter David Ortiz and Ellsbury because they have trouble with this pitch. To left-handers, it’s Francis’ most deceptive pitch.
3. He needs to keep his tempo and rhythm. It is critical for pitchers that pitch to contact to maintain a consistent tempo to be able to repeat their delivery and hit their spots.

Francis Scouting Report

Overall

Francis, who finished the regular season 17-9 with an ERA of 4.22 and WHIP of 1.38, is a tall, young lefty with good makeup and the ability to keep his team in the game. Hence the 215.3 innings pitched.

Francis possesses an average fastball with decent velocity, but more importantly he has exceptional command in the strike zone. He has the ability to turn the fastball over and cut and sink it. He commands an above average curveball, and he has enough confidence to throw his curve in any hitters count. The fact that he challenges and commands the strike zone by adding and subtracting three different pitches makes him very tough to hit consistently.

Francis rates a 65 on the scouting 20-80 scale, which evaluates raw pitching tools. By comparison, Johan Santana of the Minnesota Twins gets a 75. Based on his raw pitching tools, combined with his historical performance, we categorize Francis as “Good” on a marginal/key role/average/good/premium/elite scale.

Strengths

Francis has average velocity with his fastball, but his ability to command it makes him very tough. He rarely makes a mistake in the middle of the plate. He is capable of using both his fastball and curve just off the plate.

Weaknesses

His obvious weakness is that he lacks velocity. He is very slow to the plate and, although his pickoff move isn’t bad, aggressive base-running teams could have a field day. He’s especially weak at preventing steals of third.

Fastball (88-91 mph)

• Movement: Francis will sink his fastball to his arm-side and he will cut it to his glove-side. His sinking fastball is his best pitch and most reliable.
• Command: He commands his sinker to his arm-side, and he’ll use it effectively in the strike zone. To left-handed hitters, he likes to start it inside off the plate then bring it across.
• Plan: Francis will get ahead in the count using his fastball down in the strike zone. Then he will use both the cutter and the sinker in and out of the zone depending on advance reports on each particular hitter.

Curve (74-80 mph)

• Movement: Francis has a good feel for his curveball. It is above average because he commands it so well and is able to change the angle depending on the hitter. He’ll use a 2-8 type break but can sweep it away to left-handed hitters when ahead in the count. His curve will have more depth to it when thrown to his glove-side.
• Command: He commands it to both sides of the plate equally which adds to the value of this pitch.
• Plan: Early in the count Francis will use his curve to good fastball hitters attempting to get ahead. With two strikes on the hitters he will use his curve down and inside off the plate as well as back-door to right-handed hitters.

Change-up (76-80 mph)

• Movement: His change-up is his third best pitch; it is a bit unusual in that it has movement similar to a slider at times, although he uses a change-up grip. It will show good movement down in the zone with good sink action most of the time.
• Command: His command of his change-up is inconsistent. Most of his misses are up in the strike zone, which is not good. This pitch could hurt him.
• Plan: He attempts to keep this ball down, and he’ll use it most when ahead in the count. Francis would rather have this pitch in the dirt than over the fence.

Pitching Mechanics (A)

Francis is able to repeat his delivery better than anyone on the Rockies staff. He is very disciplined in his approach. Most notably, he is able to maintain his balance throughout his motion regardless of the score, base runners and weather. His arm slot rarely changes, allowing him to command his pitches consistently and show good deception.

Josh Beckett

• Right-handed starting pitcher
• Boston Red Sox

Colorado Rockies Outlook

Pitcher Plan

Josh Beckett must continue to establish his fastball early in the game and early in the count, so he can consistently get ahead of hitters. During the postseason he has been successful using his two out-pitches (fastball and curve) and is getting most of his swings and misses when he is ahead in the count.

Expect the Rockies to be aggressive early and not want to get deep in the count against Beckett; his out-pitches are too good. Earlier in the year Beckett gave up ten hits and six earned runs in five innings against the Rockies. He fell behind in the game too often and the middle of the Rockies order capitalized on hitter counts.

Best Match-up

Beckett matches up well against hitters who have holes up in the strike zone – players such as outfielders Brad Hawpe and Willy Taveras. Both Hawpe and Taveras tend to chase pitches out of the zone when they are behind in the count.

Worst Match-up

Beckett needs to be careful with good high ball hitters, like Matt Holliday and Garrett Atkins. Both hitters can turn on a Beckett fastball, especially in hitter counts.

Keys to Success

• Beckett must get ahead in the count early with his fastball, and he must know the hot zones of the good fastball hitters from Colorado.
• He must mix up his first-pitch types because the Rockies can handle breaking pitches; they will not swing and miss as much as Cleveland did.
• He must stay aggressive and attack the strike zone. The Rockies are an aggressive team and any sign of backing off from throwing strikes will create too many hitter counts for the opposition.

Overall Scouting Report

The favorite for the 2007 American League Cy Young award, Beckett has taken over the mantle of Boston’s ace from Curt Schilling. He finished 20-7 with a 3.27 ERA, quite a turnaround from his 2006 debut season with the Red Sox when he went 16-11 with a 5.01 ERA. Part of the improvement can be attributed to an important adjustment Beckett made: he moved from the first base side to the middle of the pitching rubber. This adjustment gave him a more consistent release point and arm slot, and it allowed his pitches to be more effective within the strike zone.

Beckett grades out at a 70 on the scouting 20-80 scale, which evaluates raw pitching tools. By comparison, Johan Santana of the Minnesota Twins grades out at 75. Based on his raw pitching tools and actual results, we categorize Beckett as “Premium” on a marginal/key role/average/good/premium/elite scale.

Strengths

Beckett has a plus fastball at 92 to 96 mph that shows plus life through the strike zone. His curve is one of the best in baseball. It has good depth (12-6 type break), and it is his number one out-pitch. Beckett is a top rotation type of guy for a championship club. He likes the big game atmosphere and will take the ball in pressure games.

Weaknesses

He can get too emotional on the mound, and his defense is below average. His blister problems seem to be behind him.

Fastball (92-96 mph)

• Movement: His fastball shows natural tailing action. It has plus life up in the strike zone. Beckett maintains his velocity and movement with his fastball throughout the game.
• Command: He is capable of commanding this pitch to both sides of the plate but is at his best when throwing it to his glove-side.
• Plan: He attempts to establish his fastball early in the game, and he uses it as an out-pitch to left-handed hitters inside. For right-handed hitters he’ll likely climb the ladder and elevate in the strike zone.

Curve (76-78 mph)

• Movement: A hard 12-6 nose-to-toes type curveball. He throws it hard with exceptional depth and rotation. It’s one of the best curves in baseball.
• Command: He throws his curve in the strike zone with good depth. He is capable of throwing it to both sides of the plate.
• Plan: He will use the curve to both sides of the plate. He doesn’t show it too early in the count because he likes to save it as an out-pitch later in the count.

Slider (83-87 mph)

• Movement: Beckett hasn’t used his slider much in the second half. It’s an inconsistent pitch with average break to it.
• Command: He only throws his slider to his glove-side and most times it is for a ball.
• Plan: He’ll use this pitch out of the zone to try to fish for swings against right-handed hitters. If he feels he can throw it for strikes, he’ll use it early in the count. Beckett won’t use this pitch much when he is behind in the count.

Change-up (85-89)

• Movement: Beckett’s change-up has shown good improvement in 2007. It shows tailing action and some sink when it is down.
• Command: He will command his change-up best to his arm-side. Beckett tries to keep this pitch down in the strike zone as much as possible. He is capable of throwing it for strikes in hitter counts and throwing it in the dirt when ahead.
• Plan: He is pitching with more confidence with his changeup and he is using it to both right-handed and left-handed hitters. Beckett will use his changeup in hitter counts (1-0, 2-0) and in middle counts (1-1, 2-1) when he has a lead.

Pitching Mechanics (A)

Beckett maintains consistent balance over the rubber, particularly over his back-side prior to delivering the pitch. He has been able to stay balanced for a longer period of time this year enabling early separation of his hands and a full arm circle. Beckett’s follow -through clearly has improved from last year. His weight is working more consistently toward home plate evident by the fact that his balance is maintained for a longer period of time throughout his delivery.

Alright, I am going out on a limb here by saying this, but I believe that the Boston Red Sox should pitch ALCS MVP Josh Beckett in Game three of the World Series.

If the Red Sox use their ALCS pitching lineup, they will have the following rotation:

• Beckett (20-7, 3.27 ERA)
• Schilling (9-8, 3.87 ERA)
• Matsuzaka (15-12, 4.40 ERA)
• Wakefield (17-12, 4.76 ERA)

My rotation would pitch Wakefield in game one and give Beckett the ball in game three in Colorado. I feel this way due to the lack of offense that the Red Sox will have out on the field if Wakefield is pitching in game three. Since the NL does not allow a DH to play, pitchers become a crucial part to the offense.

My decision has nothing to do with Wakefield’s lack of offense at the plate; it has to do with a missing Jason Varitek and an awful Doug Mirebelli. With Wakefield pitching in game 3, the second half of the lineup for the Red Sox will truly be a disgrace. I have no confidence in the bottom half of the lineup with or without Captain Tek, but to give the Sox a better chance of winning game three, the Sox need to pitch the fearless Josh Beckett.

Below is the offensive production Varitek and Mirebelli give the Sox:

Name	Avg	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	OBP	SLG	OPS
Mirabelli	.202	48	114	9	23	3	0	5	16	11	41	.278	.360	.637
Varitek	.255	131	435	57	111	15	3	17	68	71	122	.367	.421	.787

As you can see, the numbers clearly favor Jason Varitek. The key stats I looked at while writing up this analysis is OBP. Getting men on base has proven to be an important factor in winning games through the playoffs. Thanks Theo! Due to Varitek’s OBP and OPS numbers added with playoff experience, this makes my argument for Beckett that much stronger!

This is the rotation I would put in for the World Series:

• Wakefield
• Schilling
• Beckett
• Matsuzaka

My point is this: With the days off for traveling purposes, the Red Sox could have Beckett starting either game six or seven (if necessary) at home. More importantly, the Red Sox won’t have to worry about sacrificing offense for a knuckleball catcher in Boston with David Ortiz as the DH in the lineup.

In between games one and seven, the American League Championship Series was filled with twists and turns, peaks and valleys, high hopes, and broken dreams. But it ended the way it started, at Fenway Park, with Boston pounding the tribe.

The Indians, who held so much promise of dashing Boston’s dreams, holding three games to one lead in the best of seven series, couldn’t drive the final stake through the Sox’s hearts. Starting with Josh Beckett’s series saving performance in Game five, the Indians dreams vanished in the thin night air.

Boston uncorked the bubbly shortly after dispensing with the Tribe in an 11-2 scorching in Game 7. For the second time in 4 years, the Sox stormed back after being on the brink of elimination.

The final box score had all the appearances of a laugher, when actually it was a white knuckler through six suspenseful innings. And the game came close to being knotted at three in the seventh, when Joel Skinner, the Tribe third base coach, inexplicably held up the stop sign on Kenny Lofton after Franklin Gutierrez ricocheted a drive down the third base line. 

If the the speedy left-fielder had been waived around, the game could very well have gone in another direction. Instead, Boston escaped with the lead still intact, after Casey Blake followed Gutierrez with an inning-ending double play, and with it, the Tribe’s hopes of advancing to their first World Series since 1997 faded away.

The Red Sox outscored the Indians 30-5 in the last 3 games – a startling statistic, and a telling sign the Tribe pitching didn’t live up to expectations. C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona, the two staff aces, and Rafael Perez out of the bullpen, ran out of gas when their team need them most.

The key for Boston was its $103 million investment: Daisuke Matsuzaka made it through five innings for the first time in the post-season and registered his first playoff win. Though he was nicked for two runs, his confidence appeared restored. Francona stuck with him in the fifth, when the Tribe was threatening with runners on the corners and one out. But Matsuzaka escaped the inning, with the Sox clinging to a three to two lead.

Hideki Okajima pitched two shutout innings to set the table for thunderball Jonathan Papelbon. Papelbon recorded his first career six-out save – one better than his previous long of a five-out save on April 8th against the Texas Rangers.

It was another quiet night for the heart of the Boston lineup. The first two men in the batting order, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis supplied all the thunder the Sox needed, going a combined six for 10, with two home runs and seven RBIs.

Boston will host the World Series beginning Wednesday night, where they’ll meet the Colorado Rockies. If the regular season is any guide, Josh Beckett and his troops will have their hands full. The Boston ace was banged around for six runs during their interleague series with the Rockies, when Colorado took 2 out 3 from the Sox at Fenway on June 12 through the 14th
One look at how the Rockies small payroll compares with high rolling Red Sox, and it’s clear we’re in for another David vs. Goliath series, with the Rockies hoping to come away crowned the “Miracle Mets’’ of the 21st century.

www.billlucey.com

Fear of failing has served Curt Schilling well, especially during the post-season, where he’s racked up 10 wins, including an impressive 4-0 record in post-season elimination games. In fact, the Sox, overall, hold a remarkable record in Game 6 post-season history, going 7-3, dating back to 1903.

The “big game” right-hander was far from spectacular, but he didn’t need to be last night. His offense, particularly the bottom of the order, which was nowhere to be found through the first 4 games, sprung to life, accounting for eight of the 12 Red Sox runs in a 12-2 hammering of the Tribe.

The biggest blow to the Indians, and most encouraging to the Sox, was JD Drew’s grand slam to center in the opening frame to put the Sox up 4-0. Boston supplied another power surge in the third inning to put this game away early and added two more in the eighth to set the stage for Sunday night’s Game seven showdown.

There were some concerns, to be sure, about the value that Drew brought to this club. Drew produced 11 home runs and 64 RBIs during the regular season and had gone 1-11, including 0-for 6 with runners in scoring position, during the post-season. Whether the well traveled outfielder was worth the $70 million the Sox plunked down, his bat paid huge dividends last night, driving in six of Boston’s 12 runs.

Now attention turns to another Boston enigma: how their $103 million locomotive, Daisuke Matsuzaka, has failed to get through five innings in two post-season starts. In Game three of the ALCS, Dice K was touched up for four runs in a 4-2 loss at Jacobs Field.

After another disappointing outing, Matsuzaka was clearly shaken and despondent after Game 3, so much so that it caught the eye of Schilling. Schilling noticed glitches in Daisuke’s delivery and according to the Boston Globe, that’s when Schilling became teacher, and Dice K his disciple. Schilling pointed out that Daisuke was failing to throw strikes with his fastball, while the Tribe waited to jump on the pitches he was able to throw for strikes: namely, his changeup and slider.

How effective a teacher Schilling is, or more importantly, how attentive a listener D-K really is, will be determined Sunday, when he and Jake Westbrook square off in a Game 7 shootout at Fenway.

The Indians, once up three games to one, have to be stunned by how their two 19- game prized stallions have wilted heading into the home stretch. For the second game in the series, Boston pounded Fausto Carmona. Last night it was for seven earned runs, and unlike Game two, which lasted until the wee hours of the morning, the offense wasn’t able to bail him out.

Even more alarming for the Tribe was the collapse of the bullpen, particularly Rafael Perez, who was tagged for three hits and two runs after just 16 pitches.

So now it’s a one-game series. Both bullpens will be on high alert, and we shouldn’t be surprised, so they tell us, to see CC Sabathia, who’s never worked out of the bullpen, or Game five sensation, Josh Beckett. Beckett has a memorable postseason performance already under his belt, pitching four innings of relief for the Florida Marlins in Game seven of the 2003 NLCS against the Chicago Cubs, after having pitched a shutout in Game five.

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Jake Westbrook

• Right-handed starting pitcher
• Cleveland Indians

Boston Red Sox Outlook

Pitcher Plan

Westbrook pitched well against the Red Sox in Game four, allowing two runs, seven hits and three walks in 6.2 innings. He’ll need to repeat this performance in Game seven by keeping his sinking fastball low and to both sides of the strike zone early in the count.

Westbrook is not a dominant pitcher; he doesn’t have the “stuff” of a Josh Beckett or CC Sabathia. Westbrook is a command-type pitcher who will nibble around the corners, hoping to get the Red Sox to swing out of the zone. In Game seven, he’ll need to locate his secondary pitches (slider and change-up) far enough out of the zone to prevent the Red Sox from teeing off, yet close enough to the corners to get them to bite.

Overall, look for Westbrook to stay low in the zone and focus on hitting the corners with both his fastball and off-speed pitches. Given that the ALCS is now a best of one series, look for Cleveland manager, Eric Wedge, to have an especially quick hook if Westbrook is keeping his pitches up or out over the plate.

Best Match-up

If Westbrook can do what he does best, keeping the ball down in the strike zone with his sinking fastball, slider and change-up, he could have success against high ball hitters like Mike Lowell and Ramirez. Ramirez is hitting .500 (8-16) against him, so Westbrook absolutely must execute low in the zone.

Worst Match-up

If he doesn’t have good movement with his fastball and his changeup isn’t deceptive, David Ortiz, Eric Hinske (5-12 life time against Westbrook), Coco Crisp (6-8), and Jason Varitek (3-6), all of whom are good low ball hitters, could have lots of success. Look for Red Sox manager, Terry Francona, to start Jacoby Ellsbury in center over Crisp, who went 0-4 in Game four against Westbrook.

Keys to Success

1. Keep the ball low, low and low.
2. Westbrook needs to use his change-up more often to left-handed batters to keep them off balance.
3. He needs to work at a good pace, which will allow him to get into a rhythm and repeat his pitches.
4. Westbrook’s pitching fundamentals must consist of staying back over the rubber thus creating good movement with his pitches, especially his fastball.
5. He must avoid walks, especially to the less dangerous seven, eight and nine hitters (catcher Jason Varitek, outfielder Coco Crisp and shortstop Julio Lugo). Westbrook will be putting the ball in play a lot, so he can’t afford to put people on base via walks.

Overall Scouting Report

Westbrook recovered from a brutal start (7.96 ERA in April) to become a consistent starter in August and September. He finished the year 6-9 with a 4.32 ERA, striking out 93 and walking 55 in 152 innings. He allowed an opponents’ batting average of .276.

Westbrook is a groundball type pitcher, who relies on pitching to contact with pitch movement. He throws five pitches: fastball, cut fastball, slider, curve and change-up. His sinking fastball is his best pitch. If he leaves anything up in the strike zone, he can get hit hard.

Westbrook rates a “60″ on the scouting 20-80 scale, which evaluates raw pitching tools.  By comparison, Johan Santana of the Minnesota Twins gets a 75.  Based on his raw pitching tools including the scouting evaluation of his historical performance, we categorize Westbrook as “Average” on our category marginal/key role/average/good/premium/elite scale.

Strengths

Westbrook works fast and throws strikes. He works at a good tempo, which means better defense (a defense that is ready will play better!). His best pitch is his sinking fastball. Can get groundball outs for double plays.

Weaknesses

Westbrook has to pitch to contact because he is not a strikeout pitcher. He is unable to change the pitching zone to complement his best pitches. In other words, he cannot maintain the power of his fastball anywhere but down in the strike zone.

Fastball (87-92 mph)

• Movement: Westbrook has good sinking action on his fastball. It will also show tailing action.
• Command: He’ll throw his sinker to both sides of the plate, but his best command is to his arm-side.
• Plan: Westbrook will pitch to contact with his fastball more than any other pitch. He will attempt to get early strikes with his fastball down in the zone.

Cut Fastball (86-88)

• Movement: Westbrook’s cut fastball has average movement to his glove-side. There will be times when his cutter will show some depth to it.
• Command: He throws his cut fastball to his glove-side, and he has average command over it.
• Plan: Westbrook will pitch to contact with his cut fastball in hitter counts (1-0, 3-1, 2-0). He will use it primarily to left-handed hitters.

Slider (81-84)

• Movement: It has small, quick break to it. Westbrook will add depth when throwing it down and inside to the back-foot of left-handed hitters.
• Command: Westbrook will throw his slider to both sides of the plate, but he has his best command to his glove-side.
• Plan: His slider is used as an out-pitch to both righties and lefties. It is his best swing and miss pitch and he uses it off the plate to his glove-side.

Change-up (79-83)

• Movement: His change-up has tailing action to it and small sink to his arm-side.
• Command: Westbrook commands his change-up best to his arm-side and uses it down in the strike zone.
• Plan: The majority of his change-ups are used against left-handed hitters. It is a good outpitch for him when he has consistent arm action and arm speed.

Curve (75-80)

• Movement: Westbrook’s curve has average depth but below average rotation; it has 11-5 type break to it.
• Command: He throws his curve to his glove-side, and he is capable of throwing it for strikes most of the time.
• Plan: Westbrook’s curveball is basically a show pitch used to throw strikes early in the count. He will use it more often the second time through the batting order.

Pitching Mechanics (A)

Westbrook is able to repeat his delivery due to the fact that he has good awareness of his mechanics and control of his balance over the rubber. He has to stay back in order for his arm to get extended out in front. This creates good sinking action as well as bite on his slider. When he doesn’t stay back during the game he will make adjustments by using different pitch types such as a cut fastball and change-up.

8:00: Here we go. Can Carmona get more of his pitches in the strike zone so the Red Sox have to start chasing the sinker? Can Schilling fool and frustrate the Indians more effectively than he did in Game Two?

8:04: Ellsbury starts for Crisp. Defensively I don’t think it matters. Offensively it might be a slight upgrade, but that’s putting a lot of importance on a handful of major league at bats by Ellsbury. I think he’s going to be a good player but I also think the hue and cry to get him in the line-up is essentially the same as clamoring for the back-up quarterback. The guy who’s NOT playing always looks better.

8:18: Joe and Tim make it through the pre-game chat without making me want to throw the remote at the tv. Maybe being forced to pay attention to them because I’m keeping this game log won’t be as bad as I thought.

8:26: It takes three replays to finally get the “down the line” angle on Sizemore’s foul ball? Did Fox forget they had a camera over there?

8:30: 1-2-3 for Schilling including a strikeout of Hafner who continues to struggle.

8:38: “A terrifying clutch hitter”. Obviously, McCarver talking about Oritz. Hate to belabor the point but Ortiz is a terrifying hitter no matter what the situation. Chicken this is egg, egg this is chicken. More importantly, Carmona looks the same as he did in Game 2 so far. Everything off the plate to the arm side.

8:46: Hitters this year on 0-2 count batting .180. Manny 4 for 9 in the playoffs. “He’s fearless with two strikes” -McCarver. For his career? .178. “Small sample size” -Caimano. Make it 4 for 10.

8:51: GRAND SLAM DREW! How do you think Red Sox nation likes that signing now?

9:01: Martinez lead-off homer. Please don’t let McCarver talk about big innings and lead-off homers again.

9:15: McCarver praises Pedroia going to third on a ground ball in front of him. Isn’t the conventional wisdom that you only run to third if the ball is hit BEHIND you? This is why us “stats geeks” hate the conventional wisdom. It’s only “wise” when it works.

9:29: Schilling escapes two on none out jam retiring Hafner to end the inning. In the credit where credit is due department, I’d have to agree with McCarver on Hafner getting caught in between.

9:36: Back-to-back walks to open the third for Carmona and it looks like Perez is getting up in the pen. If Carmona can’t get out of this inning it’s going to be interesting to see how Wedge manages his bullpen for the rest of the game. He has to manage with one eye on this game and one eye on game 7.

9:38: Drew rips a single. That’s four RBI and there goes Fausto.

9:44: “Cleveland relievers have retired 19 of 27 first batters faced.” I assume this means the first batter they faced after coming into the game. I have absolutely no idea if this is any good. It seems, frankly, that this would be a bit low, but more to the point why didn’t Fox give me any context for this stat to let me know if it’s any good or not. Oh, I get it, Joe implies that it’s good so I should take his word for it.

9:47: Perez clearly isn’t going to be the answer tonight. 8-1 Sox. Getting to be decision time for Wedge. It looks like you have to burn Perez and hope he can get out of this inning. Then you have to hope you can get through the rest of the game with two more arms so you have your normal bullpen ready for tomorrow.

9:53: You know it’s gonna be ugly when balls start bouncing off people’s heads. Of course, it’s pretty tough to miss Youkilis’ extra large melon, but… 10-1 and there goes Perez who managed to get one out. Laffey in the game. Why are you burning another left hand arm? Assuming Wedge is hoping to get as many innings as possible from this guy it leaves him with Fultz and Perez as your lefties in the pen tomorrow. Perez has been, well, disappointing so far against the Sox and Fultz walked the only two batters he faced.

10:01: Inning finally over. Another half hour half inning. Thank God I volunteered to do my first game log in a game that looks to be a four hour blowout. Guess that leaves me more time to make fun of Tim.

10:07: Lugo double and then triple clutches trying to decide if Manny is really going to field Garko’s pop-up. Manny is an absolute menace in the field.

10:17: Great catch by Sizemore. If a tree falls in the forest and there’s nobody to hear it does it make a sound?

10:27: Hey, was that “Angels Wanna Wear My Red Shoes” in the fade out from the top of the fifth? Nothing like a little Elvis Costello to perk me up in the midst of a rout.

10:33: This is what’s so great about baseball. The Indians make three great plays in the infield in the bottom of the fifth; exactly the kind of plays they didn’t make in the first inning. I’m not saying they should have made those plays in the first, but if those balls are hit just a few inches differently Pedroia and Youkilis are retired then as they are in the fifth. Instead they get hits and it’s 4-0.

10:46: Am I wrong or wouldn’t tomorrow be Beckett’s normal “throw day”? Andy Pettite pitched in relief twice between starts this year. It used to be common for starters to do this. I concede that it’s unusual in today’s game, but let’s not make this the baseball equivalent of walking on the moon. Even if he’s available to do it, the more interesting question is under what circumstances would he come into the game? Does this mean that Daisuke is going to be on an extremely short leash? It doesn’t make a lot of sense to me to bring in Beckett if you’re already down 5-0, and I don’t think the Sox are going to use him just because they can if Daisuke gives them six or seven good innings.

11:00: Maybe it’s just me, but I can’t imagine there’s a single GM who’s watching this game and saying to themselves “By golly, Schilling’s still got it. I guess I’m going to have to increase my offer.”

11:03: Yes Joe, it’s important that Laffey has eaten so many outs. Thank you for pointing this out. It became the lone remaining strategic consideration in this game about ninety minutes ago but you and Tim failed to identify it until now.

11:23: I’m trying to decide what the difference is between the “tuned up” Borowski and the “out of tune” Borowski. Neither of them appears to be very good. Maybe Wedge will have a revelation overnight and decide to use his best reliever, Betancourt, as his closer if he needs one in Game 7.

11:34: Wow! Is this THE Eric Gagne? Guess we’ll be seeing everybody back here tomorrow night.

Daisuke Matsuzaka

• Right-handed starting pitcher
• Boston Red Sox

Cleveland Outlook

Pitcher Plan

Matsuzaka gets the ball in Game seven of the ALCS against Cleveland. The pressure is on for Matsuzaka, not only because it’s a single elimination game, but because he has pitched poorly in the postseason (0-1 with a 6.75 ERA, 13 hits and five walks in 9.1 innings).

In his second go-around against the Indians in the ALCS, Matsuzaka needs to use his curve more and his slider less. His best fastball is up in the strike zone, and his best breaking ball is his curve, not his slider. He needs to mix up what he throws for first pitches. If he attempts to get ahead in the count only with his fastball, he will run into a lot of trouble again against the Indians – a good fastball hitting team.

Matsuzaka faced the Indians twice during the regular season. The first time, on May 30, he was bad: 5.2 innings pitched, six earned runs and twelve hits. The second time, on July 24, he was great: seven innings, zero earned runs and just four hits. This dichotomy is the opposite of Matsuzaka’s trend for the year, which was that the more hitters saw him, the better they tended to do against him.

When pitching against teams for the first time, Matsuzaka went 9-6, with a 3.15 ERA. When pitching against teams for the second time or more, he went 6-6 with a 5.81 ERA.

The trend also holds steady within games. The first time through a line-up, Matsuzaka has an ERA of 1.69. His ERA climbs to 4.16, 7.02 and 9.64 the second, third and fourth times through a line-up.

Best Match-up

Matsuzaka should be able to get third baseman Casey Blake and shortstop Jhonny Peralta to chase his breaking pitches out of the strike zone when he’s ahead in the count. The two Indians are hitting .077 (1-13) off Matsuzaka.

Worst Match-up

Matsuzaka doesn’t match up well against outfielder Grady Sizemore or first baseman Ryan Garko. Both are aggressive hitters who will swing at Matsuzaka’s first pitch fastballs in the strike zone. Both have power and are a combined 6-12 (.500) against Matsuzaka.

Keys to Success

1. The Red Sox should plan on using Matsuzaka only for two trips through the Indians line-up. After the second trip through, Red Sox manager Terry Francona should be ready to replace him (ideally with Josh Beckett) at the earliest sign of trouble – even if it’s just a walk. You can’t take chances at this point of the season.
2. The Indians may be swinging away at first pitches, looking for fastballs in the strike zone. Matsuzaka needs to mix up his first pitch sequence to take advantage of this tendency early in the game to keep the Indians hitters off balance later in the game.
3. Matsuzaka should not alter his pitch selection when the Indians have potential base stealers (Sizemore and Lofton) on. He is quick to home plate with his fastball and off-speed stuff (1.17 seconds for a fastball and 1.24 for a curve), so he’s already giving his catcher enough time to throw to second.

Full Scouting Report

Overall

Matsuzaka went 15-12 during the regular season – an impressive year given he was adjusting to a new league. He throws a variety of pitches, including a fastball, curve, slider, cut-fastball, change-up and split finger. He was rumored to throw a gyro-ball, but it’s really just a backup slider, which is a slider with reverse spin.

Matsuzaka grades out at a 65 on the scouting 20-80 scale, which evaluates raw pitching tools. By comparison, Johan Santana of the Minnesota Twins grades out at 75. Based on his raw pitching tools and actual results, we categorize Matsuzaka as “Good” on a marginal/key role/average/good/premium/elite scale.

Strengths

Matsuzaka has plus mound presence, meaning he rises to the occasion in big games and key match-ups. He has two above average swing-and-miss pitches: his fastball and split-finger. He’s very durable, especially given the number of pitches he throws during and between starts. He’s a very good fielder and is quick to home plate, meaning runners have a more difficult time running on him.

Weaknesses

Matsuzaka throws a lot of pitches over the course of a game and sometimes suffers from fatigue in late innings. This tendency is compounded by the fact the MLB season is longer than what he is accustomed to. He is not nearly as effective on short rest.

Fastball (88-94 mph)

• Movement: Most of his fastballs are up in the strike zone. They tend to be straight and show plus life, meaning the ball jumps on the batter. He will use a two-seam fastball to his arm-side of home plate, meaning that he’ll throw the pitch to the side of home plate that his pitching arm is aligned with.
• Command: He commands his fastball best when he keeps it up in the zone. He has below average command inside off the plate, especially to right-handed hitters.
• Plan: He’ll try to get ahead in the count with his two-seam fastball and finish hitters up in the strike zone.

Cut-Fastball (85-89 mph)

• Movement: Daisuke’s cut fastball will show occasional depth, meaning it sometimes acts as a slider. He throws this pitch hard and will use it off the plate (inside to left-handed hitters) to make room for his out-pitch, which is the split-fingered fastball.
• Command: The majority of his cut fastballs are used to his glove-side and his overall command with this pitch is below average.
• Plan: He likes to throw this pitch in hitter counts to left-handed hitters, using it on the inside portion of the strike zone.

Curve (75-79 mph)

• Movement: He throws his curveball hard, and it shows above-average depth. It has a 12-6 break, and he is capable of adding slant to it, unlike right-handed hitters who struggle with breaking balls.
• Command: Daisuke has above-average command of his curve. He is capable of throwing it for strikes at any time in the count.
• Plan: The curve is one of his better pitches; it’s a plus major league pitch. He adjusts to hitters during games by mixing up his curve in his overall pitch sequences. He has a lot of confidence in his curve.

Slider (82-85 mph)

• Movement: Daisuke throws his slider hard, and it occasionally has good depth. In recent outings his slider’s movement has been very inconsistent.
• Command: He has below average command of his slider.
• Plan: He will throw it early in the count over the plate to get ahead of hitters. In middle counts he will use it down and off the plate to his glove-side. And with two strikes to left-handed hitters he will attempt a backdoor slider.

Change-up (80-83 mph)

• Movement: His change-up will show some tailing action and very little sink. Overall, the movement is inconsistent.
• Command: His best command with this pitch is down and to his arm-side.
• Plan: Daisuke doesn’t throw his change-up often. He is capable of throwing it for strikes and will use it more often when his breaking pitches aren’t working.

Split-Finger (81-85 mph)

• Movement: His split will show plus movement down and away from left-handers. It will have good sinking action and show fade as well.
• Command: He commands this pitch down in the strike zone and to his arm-side.
• Plan: He will vary the speeds by adding and subtracting with his split based on the situation and count. It’s his best out-pitch – a good swing-and - miss pitch. Matsuzaka is capable of throwing it for strikes early in the count with runners in scoring position, and he will add velocity to it late in the count.

Pitching Mechanics (B)

Matsuzaka has had to make some big adjustments pitching in the U.S. First, the pitching mounds are higher than they are in Japan. Pitching downhill requires a pitcher to stay back over the rubber for a longer period of time instead of pushing off and driving with his legs as so many Japanese pitchers are told to do.

Second, Japanese pitchers are coached to lead with their elbow, similar to the way catchers throw. The result is a straight and accurate fastball, whereas American pitchers are taught to create more movement.