The Baltimore Orioles locked up second baseman Brian Roberts to a four-year, $40-million extension on Friday. The deal, which begins in 2010, will keep Roberts in Baltimore until 2013.

Although this move shows the fan base that the O’s are willing to spend the money left over from their pursuit of hometown hero Mark Teixeira – especially when the $66.1M used to lock up potential future MVP candidate Nick Markakis for the long term is factored into the equation – the price and length of the Roberts deal raise some minor red flags.

Roberts is one of the premier second baseman in the game, providing above-average production and solid (until recently, at least) defense at the keystone. In addition, he is also among the most effective leadoff hitters, with solid-on base skills and plus speed. He is a career .296/.378/.450 hitter who has averaged 182 base hits, 52 extra-base knocks, 103 runs scored and 73 walks per 162 games during his eight-year career.

Roberts put up his finest single-season performance in 2005, when he posted a line of .314/.387/.515 with career highs in home runs (18), OPS+ (139) and wOBA (.389); he was worth 6.5 value wins, according to FanGraphs. Although he came back down to earth a bit when an elbow injury cut short his 2006 season (95 OPS+, .337 wOBA), he has remained fairly consistent and well above-average for his position since then. The homers have turned into doubles for him, it seems, but the 31-year-old infielder rebounded nicely to produce practically identical stat lines while garnering roughly the same amount of plate appearances in 2007 and 2008. He batted .290/.377/.432 with 180 hits, 63 for extra bases, and 268 total bases in ’07, following his age 29 campaign with a line of .296/.378/.450 and 181 hits, 68 for extra bases, and 275 total bases in ’08.

Roberts has also become a much more efficient base stealer with age and experience. By his own admission, he is not the fastest runner out there. He has established himself as one of the game’s top base-swiping thieves by using excellent base running smarts, though, increasing his steal totals considerably while his caught stealing totals have dropped since he was caught 12 times out of 41 chances back in 2004.

Although the outs that he cost on the base paths reached double digits again in ’08, he has racked up an impressive 126 thefts in 150 chances since ’06. More encouraging, he has also become more selective, as his walk rates (12.5% in ’07, a career best, and 11.8% in ’08) have improved as well, increasing his isolated on-base percentage figures. He has put up 4.44 and 4.45 totals in FanGraphs’ value wins during ’07 and ’08, respectively, which is quite impressive.

Thus, based on pure performance, one would assume that Roberts will easily earn the annual value of his new contract. There are other factors to consider here, however.

Baltimore is now, after a decade of futility, on the right track, with several cost-effective, top-flight prospects ready to make an impact in the near future; the most notable example, of course, is Matt Wieters. Wieters, the game’s premier prospect, is a rare catcher who projects to hit like an All-Star middle-of-the-order hitter while providing above-average defense behind the plate. Even with the Orioles’ minor league system making tremendous progress as the organization has finally shifted its efforts to a necessary rebuild mode, it is going to be at least a few years before there are any meaningful games played at Camden Yards. Being stuck in the American League East certainly will not do them any favors.

Which means that Roberts is not likely to be one of the key cogs of the next truly great, playoff-caliber O’s club. Even if the franchise does in fact make a run at some point with him in uniform, by the time a winning transformation occurs chances are slim that he will maintain his current level of performance. He will be reaching his mid-30s on the back-end of the deal, when the young pitching developing in the system – led by Top 100 prospects Jake Arrieta and Chris Tillman – is expected to establish itself while vaulting Baltimore into the deep AL East mix, perhaps as early as 2011.

Second basemen, outside of a few exceptions, generally do not age well, as the wear and tear of the position gradually takes its toll. Roberts has an exceptional work ethic and does not exactly have “old-man” skills, which should quell some fears of a major fall off. His defense is, as expected given his age, already declining (his two most recent UZR ratings fall at -1.8 and -3.7) and probably going to get worse. Plus, while his strikeout rate has risen while his patience has improved, he is unlikely to hit for much power again, either. So, though the O’s might be hovering near contention by the end of the duration, the lineup will probably feature a different, vastly inferior version of Roberts, whose overall value will drop considerably if his defensive output continues to worsen.

Roberts, again, is an elite ballplayer – certainly much more attractive than any internal options in the short term for Baltimore. During 2010 and perhaps ’11, he could even prove to be a bargain, comparing dollars earned to dollars made. Those final years, though, are where the risk lies, of course.

Whether or not Roberts would have commanded this much on the free agent market next offseason is up for debate as well. Although he should earn the paycheck in the early years based on the wins that he provides above a replacement-level player, there is no telling how the market would have unfolded for his services. Orlando Hudson, though not nearly as productive or talented, was forced to swallow his pride and settle on a one-year, $3.5M last-minute offer from the Los Angeles Dodgers. Hudson was hurt by the fact that he was a Type A free agent and attached to a draft pick during a time in which cost-conscious general managers are valuing early draft picks more than ever. Odds are Roberts would have found himself in a similar predicament next winter, though the economic climate should be more favorable and there will be a less impressive supply of available free agent targets.

Considering the risk for a decline in the long run, on a team in transition, perhaps Baltimore would have been better off continuing to pursue trade opportunities (though the market in this route had been fairly limited), as it takes a stretch of the imagination to fathom that his trade value will ever be any higher. The club can certainly look to unload Roberts in the future, but the salary, combined with even only a slight drop off in performance, may limit the demand for his services via trade even more. Cashing in now or rolling the dice to see how the upcoming months unfolded with the economy/his performance/trade offers may have been the right play, and, in this market, that final year seems a bit excessive.

The thought process – attempting to create buzz amongst a frustrated fan base by spending money to keep a popular product of the Orioles’ farm system and favorite in the local community in uniform – behind the decision was certainly not all that terribly flawed. However, all of the rejoicing in the land of the Ace of Cakes and near-universal praise for the move in the local and national mainstream media might seem like a forgotten memory if a major collapse indeed occurs when the Orioles are actually ready to compete down the road.

Tyler Hissey writes about Major League Baseball at MVN.com, serving as the editor of Around The Majors. Hissey is also a frequent MLB contributor to various radio stations and hosts a baseball-related show on BlogTalkRadio.

Do you think Felix Pie is aware of who Corey Patterson is? They probably met in Spring Training on at least one occasion. Did Patterson teach Pie everything he had learned about being a highly touted left-handed hitting outfield prospect in the Cubs organization, giving him words of wisdom about swinging at every breaking ball in the dirt, failing to make adjustments, and getting booed out of Wrigley by the impatient Cubbie Faithful? It has sure looked that way so far for the young outfielder.

And now it appears Patterson even taught him how to get traded to Baltimore.

The Felix Pie era in Chicago ended before it ever really started, as the Cubs traded the out-of-options outfielder to the Orioles for left-hander Garrett Olson and minor league pitcher Henry Williamson.

From the Cubs perspective, this was the epitome of a salvage job. Pie could not be sent back down to the minors without first clearing waivers (which he would not), yet the Cubs didn’t feel he was ready to contribute on a first division club. And they’re probably right. His permanent residence in manager Lou Piniella’s doghouse didn’t help the situation either, and there’s no more room in there ever since Kosuke Fukudome set up shop last season. And once you’re in Lou’s doghouse, you don’t get out. You get traded.

At this point, the Cubs could spin Olson to San Diego, who have been linked to him repeatedly in the ongoing Jake Peavy saga. But even if the Cubs plan on keeping the southpaw, they at least got a Big League bullpen arm out of the deal and maybe a potential back-end starter.

Can we now appreciate how far Pie’s stock has fallen?

Felix was ranked in the Baseball America top-100 Prospect List for five straight years, reaching as high as 27th on the list (in 2006), a couple of spots ahead of all-stars such as Hanley Ramirez, Jonathan Papelbon, and Ryan Braun. Even as recently as 2007, he made the top-50, still ranking ahead of young studs like Joba Chamberlain and Clay Buchholz. While these rankings are hardly scientific, it shows the general consensus of Pie’s prodigious potential.

But now the Cubs are content just to get a borderline starting pitcher out of him.

So was Pie overrated, or did he underachieve?

It’s hard to say. After all, he does own a career minor league line of .299/.353/.470 over parts of the past seven seasons, so he did manage to back up people’s projections with on-field performance. On top of it, he’ll be only 24 next month. But his play in the Majors so far has just been so bad that it’s now hard to see him ever approaching the level most scouts once thought he would attain.

The once bright glow of Pie’s obvious stardom has vanished faster than a home run on a windy Wrigley day. But has his value really dropped that far due just due to poor performance in scattered playing time?

That’s what .223/.284/.331 and 72 strikeouts in 260 at-bats does to glow. Higher than life expectations don’t help either.

But whereas the Cubs are a big-spending division contender without the patience to let a player like Pie establish himself in the Big Leagues, the Orioles have plenty of time to give Pie on-the-job training. And given the possibility in his game if he does figure it out, a back-of-the-rotation starter was a small price to pay to take that chance.

Pie will likely see the first extended playing time of his career in 2009. Part of the argument you can make in Pie’s favor is that he has never had a chance to start for a significant period of time in the Majors. His longest streaks of games started in Chicago came in 2007, where he had a stretch of nine games started, followed by one day as a sub and 10 more games started. During the first nine game stretch, Pie hit .314/.372/.474 and stole four bases. During the next 10 game stretch, he went .132/.214/.237.

What does this tell us? It can used as evidence for either side of this case, but it really doesn’t tell us anything other than he never got a chance. Lawyers would love Felix Pie.

But even a glimmer of hope such as nine strong games in a row, when combined with a skill set like Pie’s, is enough to give a player a second, third and fourth chance to “figure it out.”

That day won’t be one that occurs in 2009, but the Orioles have already come to grips with that. For now, incumbent LF Luke Scott seems destined for a DH role, incumbent DH Aubrey Huff will have to break in his first baseman’s mitt again, and Pie will get a chance to stick in LF, giving him a chance to play full time, or at the very least platoon with Lou Montanez or minor leaguer Nolan Reimold if Pie struggles mightily against lefties (and by “struggles mightily” I mean anything near his career totals of .106/.192/.106 against them).

That adjustment will be the biggest for Pie, and perhaps he will never hit lefties, but he remains enticing enough that teams still want to give him a chance. The talent that scouts once saw in him is still there. It is not physical. His bat speed has not slowed. He has not lost a step. He’s still very young.

It will be a matter of adjustments, and getting the chance to make them. Pie has yet to have that chance. Corey Patterson got all the chances in the world and couldn’t do it. We’ll see if Pie can.

Just because Pie is on the same track doesn’t mean the final destination is the same, but if he’s going to chance his course, he needs to do it soon, because he’s nearing the point of no return.

Jeff Moore is the creator of mlbprospectwatch.com, your one-stop source for news and daily updates on all things related to minor-league baseball and your team’s top prospects.

Over the next three days, Jeff Moore will be proposing three deals that could help get the trade market moving during what has been an otherwise stagnant off-season. Three types of trades will be featured: the obvious, the less obvious and the one that will never actually happen but should.

THE OBVIOUS TRADE

The Rays get

• George Sherrill

The Orioles get

• Reid Brignac
• Jeff Neimann

The Orioles are not going to compete in 2009.

Between their own status in year two of a three-year rebuilding project and the off-season reloading of the New York Yankees, the Orioles would have to shock the world to be legitimate contenders next season.

George Sherrill turned out to be the cherry on the top of last off-season’s Orioles-Mariners trade. Coming off an excellent season as a set-up man in 2007, he was handed the closer’s role in Baltimore with little competition or alternative options to pressure him. He turned in 31 saves, an all-star appearance, an ERA in the high-4’s, and a city full of kids want to wear their hat brims flat as a board. His popularity in the Charm City far exceeds his actual reliability as a closer, but he is serviceable in the role, and would excel as a set-up man who is dominant versus lefties and can pitch the entire 8th inning. For his career against left-handers, Sherrill’s line is .171/.235/.287 with 128 strikeouts versus 26 walks.

But what value does a player of that mold have to a team who will almost certainly not compete in 2009?

Whatever that value, it is certainly less than the value Sherrill would have to an already competitive team with potential bullpen issues and a need for someone who can be flexible enough to fill in the closer’s role when called upon.

If the residents of Tampa feel like that description sounds familiar, they would be right.

While the Rays bullpen actually performed quite well in 2008, it was done so with a rejuvenated former closer who took numerous trips to the DL and a collection of middle relievers, some of whom performed well beyond expectations.

The formula may have worked for a year, but continually hoping for career years and filing in the blanks with reclamation projects is a good way to be forced into overpaying for a closer at the trade deadline. And in the AL East, it’s a direct route to 3rd place.

And it would be a shame for the Rays to not support their great young nucleus with a properly equipped bullpen. Would you buy an Aston Martin, and fill it up with regular gasoline instead of premium?

And don’t think that this week’s Rays signing of Joe Nelson solves their bullpen problems. Yes, Nelson posted a 2.00 ERA last year in 54 innings for the Marlins. But he’s 34 and has only pitched in 103.3 Major League innings, and he’s been let go by the Braves, Red Sox, Mets, Cardinals, Royals, Marlins and the Rays. A $1.3M, it’s a relatively cheap signing with upside, but Nelson can’t be counted on to give the Rays the solid bullpen innings they need.

The Rays need to make another bullpen move, and the Orioles would be foolish not to trade Sherrill while his value is highest. They can gamble and hope he improves in his closer’s role, thinking they can get even more for him at the trade deadline, but that would require the same bravado as calling an all-in with an inside straight draw. You either have to have enough guts to teeter on the brink of foolishness or know something no one else does. Unless Sherrill developed a new devastating pitch this off-season or did what he did last year with a now healed injury, he needs to be moved for more young talent to help with the rebuilding process.

Brignac and Neimann would do just that.

Now if you’re going to make the argument that two of their top-10 prospects are a lot for the Rays to give up for a fringy closer, well you’d have a good case. But trading is all about leverage. Supply and demand factor in here even more so then in most trades.

What are the Rays other bullpen options?

They can stick with what they had last year and hope to catch lightning in a bottle twice. Maybe one-pitch wonders like Grant Balfour can continue to fool the American League with a “here it comes, see if you can catch up with it” fastball. That plan shouldn’t excite Rays fans.

They could have signed a free agent. They could have offered Brian Fuentes $17.5M over two years, which is what he took from the Angels. But that’s a lot of money for the Rays, and they have an abundance of power arms in their system, some of whom could potentially be closers not too far down the road. The Rays also have a number of players they need to begin to lock up long term and don’t want to trap themselves financially just to get a mid-level closer.

But luckily for the Rays, they are in a unique situation of actually being richer in their farm system than they are in their wallet. Many of their prospects are currently blocked, so why not flip them for a piece they need immediately?

Brignac and Neimann are two of those blocked prospects.

Brignac is blocked by Jason Bartlett, a shortstop whose defense was so spectacular this year he actually got an MVP vote despite hitting at a .286/.329/.361 clip for the season. While that MVP vote was likely the result of an overexcited Tampa writer, Bartlett nonetheless played an important enough role in Tampa’s success that Brignac is not replacing him, at least not this year. Bartlett is also controlled for a few more years and does not figure to get extensive raises through arbitration, so he could easily be the shortstop in Tampa until the Rays 2008 1st round draft pick (number 1 overall) Tim Beckham is ready to take the reigns. If the Rays agree, then Brignac is the odd man out, making him expendable. The Orioles, on the other hand, could give Brignac another shot at Triple-A to get his bat back in gear, slating him for a 2010 arrival in the Majors full time – the last year of Cesar Izturis’ contract.

Neimann faces more of a road block than Brignac. The big right-hander out of Rice has been stuck in baseball purgatory, having been Major League ready for about a year, but without a spot in the Rays rotation, and not suited for a role in the bullpen. Neimann does not have the ceiling of other Rays prospects like David Price (who will likely take Edwin Jackson’s vacated rotation spot for 2009) Jake McGee, Wade Davis, and Jeremy Hellickson (among others), but he does project to be a 3-4 starter and is ready to be so immediately.

Neimann would be a cheap alternative with possible upside down the road for an Orioles team currently trying to fill in the blanks with healthy arms until their own top prospects are ready for the big show. He can both jump into the rotation right away and possibly stay there down the road. The Rays on the other hand are willing to part with Neimann for something significant in return, as he has little value to them without a place to pitch.

Would the Rays be willing to part with two talented players for Sherrill? Only Andrew Friedman knows that for sure, but the trade would give them a dominant left-handed set-up man and closer insurance for Troy Percival’s bi-monthly trip to the DL, without giving up anything on their current roster or any major pieces of their immediate future. The Orioles, on the other hand, forfeit inconsistent saves for two more young pieces of what could be an increasingly bright future. The only obstacle I see is the hesitation some GM’s have trading within their own division, but in this case it doesn’t make sense to let that stop them.

Check back Friday for Part 2 of Jeff’s trade proposal series, this one involving the Mariners and Giants.

Jeff Moore is the creator of mlbprospectwatch.com, a one-stop site for all information regarding baseball prospects and the minor leagues.  Check back for daily updates on your team’s future stars.

Of course, there are those who would say that the biggest loser may be baseball itself, but I don’t think so. There isn’t a team in baseball that won’t look forward to a visit from Hank & Hal’s Traveling All-Stars from the players, to the concessionaires, the parking attendants, and especially the ticket takers.

This has been the off –season of CC, AJ, and now MT as in the Yanks decided to empty the vaults.

Say what you want about the New York Yankees (just remember there may be kids around) but landing Mark Teixeira put some serious hurt on a number of other clubs. In my mind the switch-hitting, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove first baseman has been the prize of the off-season. The ability to land a congenial everyday star, who is just approaching his prime, made Teixeira an incredibly valuable commodity. Which is why so many teams wanted him.

Don’t kid yourself, they did.

Let’s take a look at the teams affected by this deal in descending order of impact:

First, and foremost, the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox were talking to Scott Boras in the eight-year, $170 million range. You don’t throw those offers around unless you are serious. I don’t if the Red Sox have the baseball/business smartest front office in baseball, I only know there is none smarter. So, for those of us who look and say, “Well, Teixeira would have been icing on the cake,” we’re wrong. Clearly, the John Henry, Larry Lucchino, Theo Epstein triumvirate understand the makeup of their team on the field and the prospects in their system and they see a very significant need. Whether this gives us an indication of the health of Mike Lowell’s hip, the health of David Ortiz’ knee and wrist, the long-term future of those two stars, the dearth of power in their farm system, the lack of power and flexibility in Tito Francona’s everyday lineup or the potential (and cost) for acquiring an alternative via free-agency in future years or through trades, remains to be seen. The Sox knew this was a solution. Could the Sox have signed Teixeira? Probably. It would have cost them another million or two a year on their offer and a two-year deal for Jason Varitek, another Boras client. All we know, is this team wanted Mark Teixeira…a lot…and they can’t turn to Manny as an alternative. On the field, and in the PR race, this one hurt.

The Angels are next on my list. The Angels had a very good young first baseman, who they gave up to acquire Mark Teixeira, in Casey Kotchman. They dealt for Teixeira because they felt he was the piece who could get them by the Red Sox in the post-season, as they really don’t have much to worry about in winning their very weak AL West division. The only trouble is they didn’t get by the Sox last year and instead of getting stronger this off-season they were getting weaker. To clear budget, they jettisoned Garret Anderson and they lost the bidding war to keep their closer, Francisco Rodriguez, to the Mets. Now, in order to make certain their winter wasn’t a flop, they needed Mark Teixeira. But, as soon as we saw the three-year deal to re-sign Juan Rivera, the tealeaves were clear – this was a battle that this team knew they couldn’t win. Yes, they are still the favorites to win their division, but their fan base must be frustrated because they want, and feel they deserve, more.

The Orioles wanted Mark Teixeira. The Orioles needed Mark Teixeira to become players in the AL East. Think of the AL East like the Supreme Court; on one side are the Yanks and Sox, and on the other side are the Orioles and Blue Jays, with the Rays the swing vote. Baltimore wanted to join New York and Boston and they figured Teixeira, a local boy, could get them there. But, Teixeira (and the Orioles) knew that Baltimore is more than one player away from really winning and while this team may turn it around with their new stud catcher Matt Wieters, they are not there yet, and if Teixeira wanted to be a bridesmaid, he could have stayed in LA.

The Dodgers are next in the impact list despite the fact they weren’t even bidding for Mark Teixeira. You see, the next big name to be signed in the free-agent supermarket is Manny Ramirez, and even though the Yankees and the Red Sox are out of the bidding now, somehow Scott Boras will get other teams interested, and before you know it the Dodgers will be paying more for another trip to Manny Land than they anticipated.

Appropriately, last on my list are the Washington Nationals. I say “appropriately” because the Nats are not just a last-place team, but a last-place team without any reason to see them play. With a new ballpark, the Nationals still finished 19th in attendance playing to a stadium less than 70% full and that may plummet this coming season. Teixeira rightly figured that as nice as it would be to play in his backyard, the Nationals finished last without him and they would finish last with him.

Of course, there are those who would say that the biggest loser may be baseball itself, but I don’t think so. There isn’t a team in baseball that won’t look forward to a visit from Hank & Hal’s Traveling All-Stars from the players, to the concessionaires, the parking attendants, and especially the ticket takers. They will want to see and beat this team more than the Phillies, Rays, Cubs, Mets, or Red Sox.

And one final thought. All the Yankees have won since 2000 have been the off-season bidding wars. Joe Girardi has no need, as of yet, to change his number to 28 because the Yankees haven’t yet won their 27th World Championship. You see we all must remember that, unlike the business of baseball, the game itself is played between the lines, not at the bottom line.

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com (www.Billy-Ball.com) and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide.

So the Yankees swooped in and got another one. I suppose I should join the rest of the baseball world in expressing my surprise, but I’ve seen this act so many times before that “the big reveal” has become predictable. What’s more interesting to me is to take a quick look at each of the five teams tied to the Teixeira Sweepstakes and what his signing with the Yankees means to each of them.

1. Yankees. The twin signings of Sabathia and Burnett generated far more excitement, but it is Teixeira who establishes the Bombers as the favorites in the AL East. All of the talk surrounding the 2008 version of the team tended to center around their failures on the mound. Certainly the Yankee staff lacked a shut down ace, but they still managed to allow only 727 runs, which tied for 8th in the AL. The Yankees haven’t given up fewer runs since 2003. More important, however, was the fact that the team only scored 789 runs. You have to go all the way back to 1995 to find a team from the Bronx with fewer runs scored. The problem was exacerbated by the fact that the main cogs in the offensive engine are all going to be at least 33 years old in 2009. The predictable slow decline of Jeter, Rodriguez, Posada et al, and the failure of any of the young guns to take the next step (paging Mr. Cano) made it absolutely essential that the Yankees sign a quality middle-of-the-order bat that was in the prime of his career. Teixeira fits the bill perfectly, and his signing was the best of the busy off-season in New York.

2. Angels. The trade for Mark Teixeira last summer, and his performance for the team, would have gotten a lot more attention were it not for the fact that the Dodgers and Manny Ramirez ripped the spotlight away. Teixeira hit .358/.449/.632 with 13 HR and 43 RBI in 54 games with the Angels (Manny went .396/.489/.743, 17 HR and 53 RBI in 53 games), but I didn’t hear any talk about how Teixeira deserved votes in the AL MVP race. Unfortunately, Teixeira’s Angels and Manny’s Dodgers suffered the same fate once the postseason arrived…relatively quiet disappointment. Now that Teixeira has moved on the Angels are faced with an old and expensive roster that doesn’t look very different than the one that started 2008. They’ll be the favorites once again in the AL Wes, though that says more about the weakness of the rest of the division than the strength of the Angels. But they have little realistic hope to advance in the playoffs. The time has come for some of the great young talent we’ve been hearing about in the Angels’ system to start proving itself in the Majors, or the team faces the beginning of a decline phase after seven years of excellence.

3. Red Sox. This one stings much more than Johnny Damon, although the pain may not be felt right away. At first glance the Sox’ pursuit of Teixeira didn’t make a lot of sense since they already have solid performers at the infield corners and DH. The key to the move, however, was in laying the foundation for the next great Red Sox team. Where is the power going to come from in the 2011 line-up? Ortiz will be 35, Lowell 37 and Drew 35. Youkilis and Bay are both good sticks but neither has demonstrated the consistent power/average numbers that Teixeira has, and the young players on the team (Pedroia, Ellsbury and potentially Lowrie) will never be power threats. Signing Teixeira would have caused a short term log jam for the Red Sox, but it was a potentially great move for years to come. Now the Sox have to start setting their sights on signing Matt Holliday next winter or acquiring a younger hitter in a trade along the way.

4. Nationals. Mark Teixeira was their guy. For the last year the new Nationals ownership has been telling its fans that when the time was right they would spend money. Teixeira is a perennial All-Star in the prime of his career. The time was right. Unfortunately, when you are a team that is so obviously years away from contending you aren’t fighting a fair fight in the free agent market. The only way the Nationals could have won this bidding war would have been to “pull an A-Rod” and massively overpay Teixeira. If they’d put 10 years and $250 million on the table then they might have been able to pull the upset. That didn’t happen, and that’s probably a good thing. The key now is to resist the urge to take the money they didn’t give to Teixeira and use it to overspend on somebody who doesn’t fit the plan. If Adam Dunn can be had for a reasonable price and commitment then they should grab him; otherwise they should concentrate on cherry-picking the middle and bottom of the market and keep their powder dry for the next opportunity.

5. Orioles. The hometown boy didn’t come home, which is a shame because next to the Yankees Teixeira would have had the most positive impact on the O’s. A line-up that includes Markakis, Wieters and Teixeira is a good line-up. Add in a still effective Brian Roberts and an improving Adam Jones and suddenly the Orioles would have looked like a team on the come. Yes, their pitching staff would have kept them from being serious contenders in the AL East in the near term, but it would have been a whole lot easier to figure out how to get there with Teixeira on the team. As it is the Orioles have probably slipped just a bit further behind their competition and their future remains pretty cloudy. Now that Teixeira is out of the way their main focus should be convincing Markakis that the team can be competitive at some point in his career and locking him up to a long term deal.

Since their 98 win, AL East Division winning season in 1997, the Orioles have finished below .500 for 11 straight years. A big reason has been their failures in the amateur draft – for the last 15 years. They hit rock bottom in the 2000 draft, from which none of their first 32 picks made it to the Majors.

But the Orioles are turning things around. In 2005 they first promoted minor league hitting coordinator Dave Stockstill to the post of farm director. Shortly thereafter, they hired Florida Marlins cross-checker Joe Jordan as scouting director. The front office re-vamping culminated in June, 2007 when Andy MacPhail was hired as Chief Operating Officer and General Manager. As George Steinbrenner finally realized after many years, baseball decisions are best left to those who know and understand the game. With owner Peter Angelos approaching his 80th birthday, the continuous losing likely started to get to him, especially with no light at the end of the tunnel.

The changes in the front office led to changes in draft philosophies and approach, with immediate results. All Star outfielder Nick Markakis was the Orioles first rounder in 2003, and after a questionable pick in ‘04 with Wade Townsend, Brandon Snyder was first in ‘05, followed by Billy Rowell, Matt Wieters and Brian Matusz. While Rowell has struggled to this point in his career, he only recently celebrated his 20th birthday and is still considered the hitting prospect with the highest ceiling in the organization.

The Orioles now find themselves in a similar position to the Tampa Bay Rays. Long the American League doormats, largely due to an inability to draft and develop talent, the Rays for the past three seasons have had baseball’s best farm system. And that paid off with this year’s World Series appearance.

Most promising for the Orioles is their abundance of top pitching talent, as six of their top ten prospects are pitchers. After stud catcher Matt Wieters at number one come three pitchers, all different in style and repertoire and all potential aces.

Everything starts with Wieters, however. If there were any doubts of the Orioles plans for him in 2009, they were quickly dashed with the trading of catcher Ramon Hernandez to Cincinnati. Following his 2008 Minor League Player of the Year award, Wieters was named the top prospect in the Arizona Fall League. At 6′5″, 230, Wieters is built more like a point guard than a tight end. He’s long and loose in his bottom half, which gives him the ability to move like someone a half foot shorter. Comparable in size to Minnesota’s Joe Mauer, Wieters is already better defensively than Mauer, and while he may not hit as consistently, he’ll have more power and should remain behind the plate longer.

It’s unusual to find a switch-hitter who is similar statistically from both sides of the plate. Wieters hit .340 with a .454 OBP and a .542 SLG against right-handers in 2008 – and that was his weak side. His numbers against lefties? How about .392 with a .454 OBP and .744 SLG, good for a 1.198 OPS. For the 2008 season, he hit .355 with 27 homers and 91 RBIs in 437 at bats. His most remarkable statistic, however, was his 82 walks against just 76 strikeouts.

The next three spots on the Orioles prospect list are filled by pitchers, right-handers Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta and bookend lefty Brian Matusz. Ranking 16th, 36th, and 20th, respectively on MiLB.com’s top 50 prospect list, all are expected to reach Baltimore by mid 2010 at the latest. Tillman was the youngest pitcher in the Double-A Eastern League in 2008, where he finished in the top five in strikeouts and ERA. He possesses an above average curveball, an average fastball and a work in progress changeup. His mechanics are solid, and he is expected to start the 2009 season in Triple-A … as a 20 year old.

Arrieta led the Class A league in ERA and finished fourth in strikeouts despite missing a month because of the Olympics. He has learned to be more aggressive and was the staff leader for Team USA, despite there being older players on the roster. He has the best fastball in the system, averaging 95 and touching 98. His off-speed offerings, slider, curve and change, are not yet ML average, with the gap between his best and worst pitch is larger than that of either Tillman or Matusz. If he is successful in narrowing that gap, he may surpass both of them in the race to be the Orioles’ next ace; if not, he’ll be a mid-rotation starter, or, as some scouts believe, a dominant closer.

Matusz made his pro debut in the Fall League. I saw his first start, and the scouting reports were accurate: solid curve and change, average fastball. He pitched three shutout innings, although the rust showed as he walked four. His curve and change are already considered the best in the Orioles’ system, and he has already been compared to the Phillies’ Cole Hamels. I saw his last Arizona start as well and was surprised to see his fastball touch 96 on more than one occasion. With such a solid off-speed repertoire, he sometimes forgets his fastball exists; as a pro he’ll have to use it more to be successful against better hitters.

I had the opportunity recently to interview Jeff Moore, the founder and guru at the newly launched http://www.mlbprospectwatch.com (and a Dugout Central staff writer) about the Orioles prospects. This is what he had to say about the group:

“The Orioles have a very unique farm system at the moment. Their top 4 guys stack up with any top 4 from any organization in baseball, with Matt Wieters leading the way. There are only two players in the minor leagues whose ceiling is Cooperstown, and the Orioles have one of them. I would order the next three as Tillman, Matusz, and Arrieta, although if you made a half-decent case for Arrieta to be ahead of Matusz, I could be persuaded. I put Matusz ahead because scouts feel like all 4 of his pitches could be above average major league pitches, putting his ceiling just slightly higher than Arrieta. It’s hard to argue with what Arrieta was able to do this year in the Carolina League though. Tillman sits at the O’s best pitching prospect after he seemed to finally put his talent together this season. If he can limit just a few of those walks, he’ll be unstoppable. Even as he is, if he starts 2009 the same way he pitched in 2008, he’ll be up in Baltimore by the All-Star break.

“To have three pitchers with bat-missing stuff like those three have is amazing, considering that all three are relatively well polished and appear to only need some more experience and seasoning before they are ready. None of the three is waiting for second and third pitches to really develop before they can pitch in the big leagues. All three just need to refine command and put it all together.”

The Orioles had two other position prospects who spent time in Arizona this fall: outfielder Nolan Reimold and first baseman Brandon Snyder. Reimold had missed most of 2006 and ‘07 with injuries; healthy this year, he finished second in the EL with 25 homers and was among the league leaders in doubles, slugging and OPS. He has legitimate power, ranking at 70 on the scout scale. Reimold has average speed and a plus arm. He can play both OF corners equally well. He also cut down on his strikeouts, coming in with a career low 82 despite setting his career high in games played. The Orioles rewarded Reimold with a spot on the 40 man roster, and he is expected to spend most of the season at Triple-A. However, with only Lou Montanez and the over-achieving Luke Scott ahead of him on the left field depth chart, he has an outside chance to make the team and head north.

Snyder finished second in the Carolina League in hitting with a .315 average. He is a work in progress defensively, however. He’s a first baseman with bad footwork and limited range; if he is unable to improve, his future is as a DH.

The Orioles are in a tough spot, not unlike that of the Rays until this year. Being in the same division as perennial powers Boston and New York, and to an extent Toronto, has made it difficult to compete. (The fourth place Jays total of 86 wins would have won the National League’s West Division). With a new outlook in the front office leading to a new outlook on the field, the Orioles may soon find themselves contenders instead of doormats, with their sub-.500 streak a distant memory.

With the biggest sweepstakes of baseball of the off-season still yet to be decided, we have been inundated with rumors, both accurate and outrageous, regarding Mark Teixeira’s destination.

Rumored to be in the mix as serious candidates are the usual suspects, the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels, but also involved are the two teams from the DC Metro area, the Washington Nationals and the Baltimore Orioles. And we know by now that DC Metro area is where Teixeira was raised.

The money being thrown around in the recruitment of Teixeira is mind-blowing, especially in a time of such national economic struggle, but this is one free agent scenario which might come down to more than just money.

The rumored offers thus far are 7 years/$140-150 from Baltimore, 8 years/$160 million offered by the Nationals, and it’s believed that the Angels have matched the Nationals’ offer. The Red Sox haven’t made an official offer yet, but that seems like only a matter of time. The Yankees have been associated through rumor only, but with their free-spending ways, they seem to be involved with every big name free agent.

Of course, the majority of this is pure speculation, but there is no doubting the interest of these five teams in the switch-hitting first baseman. The Angels loved the impact Teixeira had on their playoff run and want him back. The Red Sox have coveted Tex since high school when they drafted him in the late rounds, but couldn’t keep him away from Georgia Tech. The Yankees … well they love everybody.

But the Nationals and Orioles involvement is part of what is making the Teixeira courtship more complicated and unique than that of most big name free agents. At first glance, it seems that the two teams located in the neighborhood of Teixeira’s youth have a competing interest in bringing having the Prodigal Son return home, with dreams of sellout crowds at the gate and long lines at the memorabilia counters.

The Nationals are in desperate need of an identity to go with their new home. They played their first 3 years in miserable RFK Stadium before moving into their brand new park, only to see its initial luster wear off quickly and be home to sparse crowds during a 102-loss season. The Nationals had pinned their franchise hopes on the All-American shoulders of 3B Ryan Zimmerman, thinking they had a budding superstar on their hands, only to realize that Zimmerman may just be another nice player and not the Hall of Fame lock they proclaimed him to be after his rookie season.

Enter Mark Teixeira, or so they would like.

Tex would give the Nationals an identity, a face, and a cornerstone to build around for the future, plus the marketability of the “hometown boy” returning to his old stomping grounds. The problem is that the cupboard is bare on the Nationals farm, and signing Teixeira would virtually break the bank in the payroll department.

Barring a significant and unexpected raise in payroll from owner Ted Lerner, signing Mark Teixeira would zap almost all of the Nationals spending resources. The Nats 2008 payroll was just under $55 million and they lose little in payroll obligations via free agency. In order to sign Teixeira, the Nationals would have to raise their payroll by around 36%, which they appear willing to do, but would also leave little left in the bank to support Teixeira in the lineup, or more importantly on the mound.

It’s not like the Nationals are any good. In fact, they’re not even close to being good. Even with Teixeira, the Nationals would not be good for quite some time.

The Orioles, on the other hand, are moving in the right direction. Like the Nationals, adding $20 million of annual salary to sign Teixeira would call for quite a raise from their 2008 payroll of just over $67 million, but whereas the Nationals/Expos have never had a payroll above $63M the Orioles have been active suitors in the free agent market in the recent past (signing Miguel Tejada, Aubrey Huff to name a few) and have had a payroll as high as $93 million as recently as 2007. Orioles’ owner Peter Angelos has shown a willingness to open his checkbook in the past to bring a winner to Baltimore, even if the dollars have not been thrown in the right direction.

Signing Teixeira would be throwing money in the right direction.

No, the Orioles weren’t any good in 2008, and they will likely not be a whole lot better in 2009, although Teixeira would help a little. He would not, however, help enough to get them past 4th in the AL East, at least not next season.

But Teixeira is not signing a one-year contract – he will be locked up for 7-8 years, well into his thirties and through the prime of his career. There is a strong possibility that the Orioles will be quite good by then.

Unlike the Nationals, the Orioles have quite a nucleus, including RF Nick Markakis and CF Adam Jones as well as minor league prospects C Matt Wieters, and SP’s Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta. Tillman is close to the majors after breaking out in Double-A last season and Wieters will be the Orioles starting catcher at some point in 2009, if not on Opening Day. They also have Brian Roberts whose contract expires after the season, but the Orioles hope to lock up long term.

But will they have any money left if they Teixeira, or will they be handcuffed like the Nationals?

Adding Teixeira at $20M a year would put the Orioles at a manageable level of between $85-90M for 2009, a level at which Angelos is apparently comfortable, having already made the offer.

The Orioles will have money to spend after 2009, largely due to the expiring contracts of Aubrey Huff ($8M), Melvin Mora ($9M), Danys Baez ($5.5M), Jaime Walker ($4.5M), and Ryan Freel ($4M), none of whom are likely to be re-signed, freeing a total of $31M from the books. They must take care of long-term extensions between now and then for two players – Roberts and Markakis – which will add approximately $12-14M to the 2010 payroll (assuming Roberts goes to about $10M a year – a $2M raise – and Markakis gets a long term extension for about $12M per). That will leave the Orioles with approximately $17-20M to spend on their 2010 roster without adding to their 2009 pay level. With the anticipated increase in revenue at the gate and in jersey sales (thanks to Teixeira), that number may be slightly more, especially if Angelos and MacPhail feel they are close to competing.

Barring extensions from their current teams, the 2010 Free Agent class includes players like Matt Holliday, Vladimir Guerrero, John Lackey, Rich Harden, Brett Myers, Chipper Jones, Jason Bay, Rick Ankiel, Johnny Damon, Xavier Nady, and possibly more if options are not activated.

After the 2009 season, the certain pieces of the Orioles roster (including Mark Teixeira) could realistically look like this:

• Roberts 2B
• Jones CF
• Markakis RF
• Teixeira 1B
• Wieters C
• Luke Scott/Nolan Reimold LF
• DH?
• 3B?
• Cesar Izturis SS
• SP Jeremy Guthrie
• SP Chris Tillman
• SP?
• SP?
• SP?

Also in the 2010 picture for the Orioles would be:

• SP Jake Arrieta, who could be close to the majors after pitching at Double-A in 2009
• SP Brian Matusz who will start in the Carolina League and will be on the fast-track if he pitches well
• 1B/DH Brandon Snyder, a less certain prospect who will likely be at Double-A in 2009
• 3B Billy Rowell, the former first-rounder who by 2010 will have given the Orioles enough of a sample size to know if he will be the long-term answer at the hot corner

Remember, by this point, Mark Teixeira will only be through one year of a likely 7-year deal.

Depending on their needs at the time, the Orioles could go a number of directions. Perhaps they could splurge on a big-time bat for the second straight off-season, deciding to give LF Matt Holliday $15-17M per year over 6 years (this assuming, of course, that their home-grown pitching is coming along nicely), giving them a 2-6 of Markakis, Teixeira, Holliday, Wieters, Jones.

Yikes.

Or perhaps they choose to add a pitcher and a mid-level hitter, shelling out the big bucks for Lackey (6 yrs/$85M) and Nady (4 yrs/$48M) coming off another good season, setting up a rotation of Lackey, Guthrie, Tillman, Matsuz and Arrieta, and a lineup of Roberts, Jones, Markakis, Teixeira, Wieters, Nady, etc. by the end of 2010.

Not too shabby either.

Obviously this all involves a great deal of speculation. Prospects have to stay healthy and continue to progress, something which is hardly a sure thing. But it’s also important to remember that I haven’t even mentioned names like Troy Patton, Brandon Erbe, David Hernandez, Chorye Spoone, and others in the minors who have serious potential, albeit more question marks.

Additionally, free agents also have to want to come to Baltimore. Just because Angelos writes the check, doesn’t mean the players will come.

But most importantly, it starts with Teixeira. Possibly the best reason for trying to sign the big first baseman is that there simply is not another free agent bat in his class coming along in the near future. He is far and away the best hitting option (aside from the capriciously motivated Manny Ramirez) that will be available this off-season or next. Certainly it’s better to wait until all the building blocks are in place before the big bucks are spent, but the most important part of the blueprint is available now, and for a limited time only.

The Baltimore Orioles don’t play in Kansas City, Pittsburgh or Miami. They aren’t the Padres or the A’s. They aren’t the Washington Nationals. The Orioles are building a contender and plan to keep their pieces around long enough to see the plan through.

And that plan starts with bringing Mark Teixeira home.

Jeff Moore is the creator of mlbprospectwatch.com, a one-stop site for all information regarding baseball prospects and the minor leagues.  Check back for daily updates on your team’s future stars.

“The great thing about democracy is that it gives every voter a chance to do something stupid.” – Art Spander

I took it upon myself to find the player with the worst single season credentials ever to have received at least one vote for MVP within said single season. At first glance you might think that even the worst single season to get a vote for MVP would still on some level be a good, if not tremendous, season. I can tell you right now, first glances can be seriously out of focus. Downright blurry.

The first MVP awards in Major League Baseball were handed out in 1911, won by Frank Schulte of the Cubs and Ty Cobb of the Tigers, respectively. That same year the following players all received at least one MVP vote:

• Phillies’ Otto Knabe: .237 average, 1 HR, .646 OPS in 528 at bats
• Cubs’ Jimmy Archer: .253 average, 4 HR’s, .645 OPS in 387 at bats
• Pirates’ George Gibson: .209 average, 0 HR, .541 OPS in 311 at bats
• Senators’ George McBride: .235 average, 0 HR, .581 OPS in 557 at bats
• Tigers’ Donie Bush: .232 average, 1 HR, .636 OPS, 40 steals in 561 at bats

The first 50 years of MVP voting years frequently saw largely undeserving seasons rewarded with MVP votes. For example, the aforementioned George McBride received MVP votes for four straight years from 1911-1914 with a batting average never higher than .235 and an OPS that never broke .600. Slowly, as the years went by, and voters became more educated, the process became more streamlined.

After finding out that the early to mid 20th century voting for the award was less than an exact science, I decided to focus on the last 35 years (1973-2008) for my search for the worst MVP vote. This 35 year stretch was easily the most watched (by the early 1970’s almost all U.S. households had a television to go with a radio, and baseball would expand tremendously over these three decades) by a new generation of baseball fan and writer (mass media coverage of baseball took off in the 1970’s around the same time alternate statistical measures were being birthed), making it a much tougher era to find a truly ‘unworthy’ vote for an MVP.

I started with 2008 and worked my way backward. Big mistake. Huge. Can you say ‘dozens of monstrous statistical years’ every year? It was 1984 before I found a season with a batting average under .260 (.258) combined with an OPS of .700 (.671) or lower (this season belonged to the Padres Alan Wiggins, whom, to his credit, did steal 70 bases and score 106 runs that campaign).

I had to go all the way back to where I started my ‘modern’ era separation. My runner up, whom I would have sworn was going to be my winner until I hit the end of the line, was Boston shortstop Rick Burleson in 1975 and 1978.

Burleson hit .252 in 1975, with 6 homers, 66 runs scored and an OPS of .634 in 580 at bats. In 1978 he hit .248 average, with 5 homers, 75 runs scored and an OPS of .634 in 626 at bats. Burleson received multiple MVP votes in 1975 and a single one in 1978. But before I could crown him ‘king’ of the worst modern season to get an MVP vote another candidate stepped up and bailed ole’ Rick out.

Arguable the best defensive shortstop of the 1970’s, Baltimore’s Mark Belanger was as inept with the wood as he was brilliant with the leather. In 1973 and 1974 Belanger received multiple MVP votes for what can only be considered pathetic offensive seasons. He batted .226 with 0 homers, 106 hits and a .564 OPS in 1973. His 1974 season looks mammoth in comparison: .225 average with 5 homers, 111 hits and a .598 OPS.

His rewards for those seasons?

In 1973, he not only received MVP votes, he finished 21st with eight points. That put him ahead of Bert Blyleven (20-17, 2.52 ERA, 158 ERA+ and 258 Ks in 325 innings) and Vida Blue (20-9, 3.28 ERA, 108 ERA+ in 263.7 innings), among others. In 1974, Belanger received six points, good for 26.

You would probably agree that Belanger’s slick fielding and amicable personality is what got him his handful of MVP votes, because his offensive numbers would get him little more than a bus ticket back to Shreveport. Regardless, Mark Belanger now stands alone as the single greatest example of MVP voting gone wild, at least, from 1973 to 2008.

The 17th season of the Arizona Fall League wrapped up on November 22nd, with the Phoenix Desert Dogs winning their unprecedented fifth consecutive title with a 10-4 win over the Mesa Solar Sox. What makes the D-Dogs run so remarkable is each team changes from year to year, from the front office, to the field staffs to the players and even the franchise assignments. As a developmental league, the rosters aren’t even determined until mid-August, and workouts don’t begin until the minor league seasons are complete. Some players who are fortunate enough to have their minor league teams reach their respective leagues’ postseason may not arrive in Arizona until a week or so prior to Opening Day – not much time to get to know your teammates and your role.

The overall talent level this year was down from last, and understandably so. In 2007, USA Baseball used the Fall League as an unofficial tryout camp for the upcoming World Cup in November and for the Beijing Olympics in August. The overall quality of play was better than in any season I can remember; AL Rookie of the Year Evan Longoria wasn’t even voted the top prospect in the league.

There were still a number of big name prospects here, some trying to show they can play in the show, and some others trying to get some innings or at bats after injury problems during the regular season. Among that later group were Boston’s Clay Buchholz and the Yankees’ Phil Hughes. Buchholz (whom I unfortunately didn’t get to see) pitched well, albeit inconsistently. In five starts, he went 1-2 with a 3.86 ERA, allowing 18 hits and striking out 17 in 21 innings. He did walk nine batters however - not a good indication of command. Hughes, too, struggled with the free pass, walking 13 in his 30 AFL innings. He made seven starts, going 2-0, allowing 21 hits and striking out 38 along with a 3.00 ERA. The outing I witnessed wasn’t one of his better starts, yet he was as impressive as any pitcher I saw this year.

The league’s pitching star unquestionably was Atlanta’s Tommy Hanson, whom I also didn’t get to see. All he did was win the league’s Triple Crown, leading the league in wins, (five), ERA (0.63) and strikeouts (49). Check out some other numbers posted by the 6′6″, 210 right-hander; 10 hits allowed in 28.3 innings, two runs allowed and a .105 opponents’ batting average against. Combined with his regular season numbers of 11-5, 2.41 ERA, 168 strikeouts in 138 innings pitched with just 85 hits allowed, Hanson is going to be tough to keep out of the 2009 Braves’ rotation, despite his lack of Triple-A experience.

As usually happens in any league, some guys performed better, or worse, than expected. What makes the AFL different from most leagues is this is clearly a development league, not a stats league. Pitchers can get rocked and have their team’s front office ecstatic; a position player can hit .380 and be removed from the 40-man. It’s all about performance, not results.

One of the first games I attended was between the hometown Surprise Rafters and the eventual champion Desert Dogs. As I was walking to my car afterwards, I couldn’t help but think I had just witnessed the future of the catching position on the American League All-Star team for the next 15 years. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen two better prospects at the same position in the same game …ever – in Baltimore’s Matt Wieters and Toronto’s J.P. Arencibia. I’ll be writing more on Wieters in an upcoming article, but suffice it to say though he was clearly the best player in the league. Scouts and front office personnel were almost unanimous in his praise – a switch-hitter who hits for average and power from both sides of the plate, has a rocket arm and most impressively, handles pitchers well.

Arencibia was the Jays’ first round pick in 2007, and after missing time with a broken hand, rebounded to hit .298/27/105 in his first full pro season. (His 27 homers tied Wieters for the minor league lead among catchers). He has plus power to all fields; I saw him hit a 410-footer to right-center … on a change-up away. He stayed within his zone perfectly and just used his natural swing to drive the ball out. It really was pretty to see. He also picked two runners off second, throwing from a semi-kneeling position reminiscent of Benito Santiago, although with a much stronger arm. One factor of the game the Jays wanted Arencibia to work on was his plate discipline. He’s a notorious first strike swinger who walked only 18 times in 126 games during the regular season. Despite a battle with the flu which forced him into exclusive DH duty the final three weeks of the AFL season, Arencibia managed to walk five times in 27 games - an improvement considering his approach. The Jays have just two catchers on their 40 man roster – Rod Barajas and Curtis Thigpen. There’s no reason to think Arencibia won’t have a legit shot at winning the starting job in the spring.

Some people were surprised at the Florida Marlin’s decision to trade first baseman Mike Jacobs. After all, he did hit 32 homers last year. Looking deeper into his numbers, he wasn’t very productive despite the power showing, and he is nothing but average defensively at first base. Same can be said for Jeremy Hermida in left field; he, too, won’t be a Marlin come spring training. While this may be in some ways a salary dump, as Jacobs is arbitration eligible, looking at Florida’s minor league roster, a different story emerges. The Marlins had a pair of first base prospects, Gaby Sanchez at Double-A Carolina, and Logan Morrison at Single-A Jupiter, win their respective league Most Valuable Player Awards. The edge for the first base job in Miami likely goes to Sanchez; he has more experience, and is four years older than Morrison, who in addition to his MVP was also the Florida State League’s batting champ.

I didn’t get a chance to see Morrison defensively; the first time I saw him he was the DH, the second, he pinch hit in the ninth inning. He did, however, spend the last two weeks or so playing left field, leading me to believe if the Marlins do in fact trade Hermida, Morrison may get a good look in Spring Training. Morrison led the AFL in hitting right up to the last week, eventually losing the batting title here to Eric Young, Jr. – a 1-12 performance over the final four games doing him in. He’s an impressive hitter for a guy who turned 21 in August – a lefty swinger with a powerful, short swing which keeps his bat in the strike zone for a long time. With a swing like that, he’ll be in the Major Leagues for a long time as well.

Seattle infielder Carlos Truinfel was the youngest player in the league at 18. Though he’s listed as a shortstop, the game I saw him he played third. He’s big for his age, and I don’t mean tall, leading me to believe he’s probably at third to stay, or at least will stay there by the time he reaches Seattle.

Philadelphia’s Jason Donald capped a whirlwind season by winning the Dernell Stenson Sportsmanship Award. (Stenson was a Cincinnati Red’s prospect who was murdered during a carjacking while playing in the Fall League in 2005). Donald hit .407 in the Fall League, coming here after starting at shortstop in the Olympics and staying with the Phillies throughout the postseason. With injuries to both starting second and third baseman in Philadelphia likely keeping them out of early season play, look for Donald to contribute to the Phillies as they begin defending their World Championship in 2009.

Outfielder Julio Borbon rates at 80 out of 80 on the scout scale for speed. He’s a good centerfielder who needs to improve on his routes, and on his plate selection, speed does you no good if you’re not on-base. The Rangers are dying for an impact leadoff hitter, but until Borbon shows much improvement in his on-base percentage, he’ll be stuck at the bottom of the order.

Eric Young Jr., of the Rockies made the switch from second base to the outfield. He won the league batting and stolen base titles and won praise as one of the more energetic and prepared players in the league.

Oakland first baseman Sean Doolittle is a Wally Joyner clone. He probably won’t have prototypical first base power numbers but should hit close to .300 with 20 homers annually. A good defender at first, Doolittle, like Logan Morrison, spent some time learning the outfield as well.

Houston’s Brian Bogusevic came to Arizona on the Rick Ankiel career path. A former pitcher, Bogusevic switched from the mound to the outfield in mid-season and hit .347 in 50 games in the minors. He hit .338 in 22 games in Arizona.

The Yankees Austin Jackson and Tampa’s Desmond Jennings look alike and play alike. Jennings played just 24 games in 2008 because of two separate injuries, but this is the kid who will move B.J. Upton to right field sooner rather than later. Jennings has it all and projects as a solid leadoff hitter and Gold Glove candidate in center. All he needs to do is prove he can play a full season without getting hurt - something he has yet to do since he signed in 2006.

Jackson, too, has all the tools. He’ll probably hit more in the middle to bottom third of the Yankees order. Jennings and Jackson were teammates on the Peoria Javelina’s and spent time rotating between left and center field. Jennings undoubtedly will spend most of, if not all the 2009 season in the minor leagues, making up for time and experience missed. Jackson has a legitimate shot at the Yanks’ centerfield job right out of Spring Training.

I think I’ve gotten long winded enough, and there’s a few guys I haven’t mentioned yet, including some mid-range prospects who likely pushed themselves into the view finder of their organizations.

Next time, I’ll take a look at players such as Atlanta catcher Tyler Flowers, Detroit outfielder Casper Wells, the Giants middle infield situation and the position change for Jeff Larish.

I love stories about baseball – particularly from the 1980-1995 period, when I was old enough to understand the game, yet not so old that my thoughts were fully occupied with having a family, a job and a hefty mortgage.

So when I was perusing Baseball-Reference (hey, I don’t care how busy I am, I still look at stats) and came across the roster of Mike Pagliarulo’s 1993 Orioles, I thought, “they’re must be a bunch of stories here.” Cal Ripken, Harold Reynolds, Harold Baines, Fernando Valenzuela, Rick Sutcliffe … that’s an all character team.

I sent some questions to Mike about those Orioles, and here is the exchange. - Adam White

Adam White: Glenn Davis was one of the game’s most feared hitters from 1986-1990.  He signed with Baltimore and fell off the table.  What happened?

Mike Pagliarulo: Glenn was a great guy to have on your team and a super talent. He was my teammate as an amateur in Cape Cod when we played for the Chatham A’s. Glenn played the outfield and was one tough guy from the south. I always got along great with guys from the south, but seeing I was from Medford, MA, I need a translator when we’d go out after a game. Glenn was a wild man and fierce competitor. He’d fight you at the drop of a hat. As he grew older he became more of a family man and tone down his lifestyle.

By 1993, Glenn was getting older and was hurt a lot – the normal course of aging for players who don’t abuse steroids. Glenn wasn’t happy when I was traded to Baltimore because Johnny Oates played me at first base at times. There were some screaming matches between Glenn and the staff. To his credit, we sat after a game outside Camden Yards one night in September. We must have talked for an hour about helping the Orioles win. Glenn agreed to keep his emotions to himself and play for the team. It’s not easy for any player to keep everything inside when a teammate is playing in your normal spot in the lineup.

Adam White: Fernando Valenzuela went 8-10 with the Orioles that year, but he had a 4.94 ERA and struck out just 79 in 178.7 innings.  Was he just getting by on smoke and mirrors?  What happened to all those strikeouts?

Mike Pagliarulo: The infield at Camden Yards is awesome and “Fern” (as I liked to call him) wasn’t using smoke and mirrors. He was using his head and pitching great with little velocity. He had a game plan that took into consideration his defense and the playing surface. He knew where he wanted the ball hit.

Adam White: Any good Rick Sutcliffe stories?

Mike Pagliarulo: Sut was a great teammate and great pro. I loved playing with him. Here’s a good old school “real baseball” story. We’re playing Toronto at the end of the season in 1993. Sutcliffe was pitching against Pat Hentgen, who was a great pitcher for many years in Toronto. I was swinging the bat well at the time and after I got a hit in my first at bat, Hentgen hit me with a pitch in my next at bat. No words were exchanged. He wasn’t throwing at my head, and that’s just how the game is supposed to be played (only idiots charge the mound). The very next inning Sutcliffe takes the mound and he’s facing John Olerud – what a great swing he had. The first pitch goes off Olerud’s knee. After getting the ball back from the umpire, Sut looked over at me and winked.

No one said a word. No one complained. The umpires let the game go on. That’s baseball. Whether Hentgen was throwing at me or not didn’t matter. It’s disappointing for me to see that retaliation isn’t a bigger part of the game today. I think it teaches young players respect – respect for other players and for the game.

Adam White: Where do you rank Harold Baines on the list of best hitters you played with?

Mike Pagliarulo: I loved playing with Harold Baines. He’s one of my best all-time teammates, even though we didn’t play on the same squad for long. I loved his swing and work ethic. Many times players have teammates who are more helpful than coaches. Actually, having good teammates is a vital component of player development at the minor league level, but not many people understand or talk about it much today. In 1993, I played almost the second half of the year in Baltimore and Harold and I hit in the same batting practice group. We could look at each other and not speak a word but discuss hitting the entire time. It was so much fun. He was one of the best hitters I’ve ever seen. He hit balls just as hard to right field as he did to left field.

Adam White: Best Cal Ripken story?

Mike Pagliarulo: The all important “streak” was vital to the Oriole franchise. Games were sold out to see Cal play and continue his daily routine. All those games in a row – it’s incredible to think about, and I can’t imagine what your body must go through, especially as a short stop. One day I was sitting at my locker about 3 PM and Ben McDonald was sitting on the couch next to me reading a magazine. The iron man game streak was growing in popularity and it was all new to me. As I sat in my locker I stared across the room into the trainers area where guys were getting taped up and submerged in the whirlpool. I just wondered how anyone could play that many games in a row – impossible. And just then out of nowhere Cal dives through the air (parallel to the ground) and clothesline tackled Ben on the couch. Ben got up and wrestled Cal to the ground. Then Cal got up ran around the couch only to dive over it again and take McDonald down.

I said to myself: only someone that crazy can play in all those games.

Adam White: Jeffrey Hammonds was a hotshot 22-year-old prospect.  How good did you think he’d be?

Pagliarulo: Jeffrey was as classy as they come. During his first game there was a lot of hype around the kid and I could tell he was under a lot of pressure. He had a one million dollar signing bonus or something like that. We faced a tough lefty this one afternoon, and I got to sit next to one of my old mates who happened to be around the same age as me. In Hammonds first at bat the pitcher jammed him with a fastball and cracked his bat; the ball barely made it to the mound. In his second at bat, the pitcher got inside on him again breaking his bat in two as the ball made it halfway to the mound this time. On his final at bat the pitcher threw a fastball inside almost hitting Jeffrey’s thumb. The bat was in splinters and the ball barely made it off the dirt. Just then my friend leaned over to me quietly and said, “Pags, we were signed at the wrong time, brother.”

Adam White: I think Gregg Olson could have been a HOFer if he hadn’t been hit by injuries.  People forget how good he was from 89-93, with an ERA+ of 223, 159, 125, 194 and 279.  How good was he and where does he rank among the best relievers of your playing days?

Mike Pagliarulo: He had one of the best curveballs I’d ever seen. Even when you knew it was coming it was tough to hit. He could throw it in and out of the strike zone by design. What a great arm. If Olly had played with better clubs maybe he wouldn’t have been used as much or quite possibly he would have been surrounded with quality setup men. I only remember getting one single off of him – a curve and I had no idea how I hit it. I really liked Olly because he had the mentality to pitch at the end of the game. That is a quality few have.

“He belongs in a higher league.” – Pete Rose on Brooks Robinson

The start of summer brings the best high school baseball players out in droves. There are literally hundreds of tournaments nationwide showcasing the top teenage talent our nation has to offer. The little patch of dirt I call home is no different. For roughly 20 years the Twin Lakes Classic brought some of the best American Legion teams to Mountain Home, Arkansas. In 2006, it was no different, except for a name change. Our tournament had the honor of becoming the Brooks Robinson Classic that year.

So, when the 3rd Annual Brooks Robinson Classic came to a close a week ago, I thought it would be nice to check in with the 16-time Gold Glove winning Hall of Famer to get his thoughts on the tournament, the state of the Major League game, and anything else that strikes his fancy.

Thomas Wayne: Thanks for taking the time to talk with me Mr. Robinson, I know you are a busy man, so let’s get started. Do you get the chance to get out to tournaments like the Brooks Robinson Classic, that showcase dozens of great American Legion and High School baseball players nationwide?

Brooks Robinson: I haven’t been to many tournaments the last three or four years. I am trying to slow down a bit. I used to be at the Brooks Robinson Classic every year but haven’t been in town the past couple years. We usually don’t get a date until after my schedule is already set. I do go to the press conference every year where they announce the teams. I enjoy meeting the players and their families.

TW: What is your take on the nationwide trend to start removing aluminum bats out of the hands of amateur players and move them back towards using traditional bats?

BR: I don’t think it is ever going to happen where you would not have aluminum bats. Some Amateur and Little League teams will always have aluminum bats. I do believe some college teams will go back to wooden bats.

TW: Do you still follow the Orioles organization closely or do you have another team that follow on a regular basis?

BR: Yes, I follow the Orioles closely. Andy MacPhail, the new General Manager, is a friend of mine. Don’t think he would come to this organization unless he had total control. I also follow the four minor leagues teams that I am part owner of: The York Revolution, Southern Maryland Blue Crabs, Lancaster Barnstormers and Camden Riversharks. I have been to the Opening Day this year for three of the teams. I go to several games. I will be at the York Revolution game on July 1st. I really enjoy watching minor league baseball.

TW: What are your thoughts on the hot topics of late in baseball, namely the use of instant replay for home runs and the epidemic of maple bats exploding into dozens of dangerous splinters during games?

BR: I am not in favor of instant replay. One of the main criticisms people have of baseball games is that they are too long. The length of the game doesn’t bother me but it bothers a lot of other people. Instant replay would only add time to the game. Umpires have been involved in baseball games for over 100 years and they do an excellent job. Every once in a while they get one wrong, but it doesn’t mean we should go to Instant Replay. I do think baseball should explore the maple bat problem because they are exploding and it does make it dangerous. They seem to break more easily.

TW: One quick final question. Is there anyone in particular playing today that when you watch him play you think “that guy reminds me of me”?

BR: I really like Mike Lowell, the third baseman for the Red Sox. I think he is really exciting to watch.

With two+ months of the season gone let’s take a quick look at how everyone is doing, or not doing. As everyone knows, there have been many surprises, some good and some not so good and we’ve seen some very good young players having a big early season impact. There have been some key injuries, debate and instant replay and no managerial firings.

The Rays are in first place – or they were recently – and they’ve been doing it the old fashioned way: pitching and defense. No one on offense is tearing it up, but they’ve had some great clutch hitting. And to this point Carlos Pena seems to be proving that perhaps last year’s monster season was an exception and not the rule. B.J. Upton has finally found a position, and playing every day seems to have relaxed him and let his considerable natural talents finally surface. Dioner Navarro has become the hitter several scouts thought he could be – not just a good defensive player. The Delmon Young trade is so far proving to be a good one for the Rays as Bartlett has stabilized the shortstop position and Matt Garza has been steady in the starting rotation. New closer Troy Percival (now on the DL) has done the job on the field and in the clubhouse. Rookie Evan Longoria is finding his way at the plate and has played a solid third base. Scott Kazmir has been lights out, Jamie Shields is reaching his potential and Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine have helped out at the rotation’s back end. The Rays’ defense is what has really made the difference. They have committed only 28 errors – best in the American League. Manager Joe Maddon has this team believing, and that could be bad news for the Red Sox and the Yankees.

The Red Sox have been unbeatable at home and not so good on the road. They are in their usual spot, at or near the top in the AL East, but the Dice K and David Ortiz injuries, if long term, might be too much for even their productive farm system to overcome. Dice K was finally pitching like the Red Sox had hoped for in 2007, and while Ortiz didn’t have the power numbers of the last few seasons, he was still producing. Manny hit number 500 and is doing his usual clutch hitting and J.D. Drew is still in the lineup and producing. Kevin Youkilis and Mike Lowell are repeating last season’s fine offensive performances and even Coco Crisp has contributed. Jonathan Papelbon is again lights out and John Lester and veteran Bartolo Colon have picked up the slack for the missing Curt Schilling and inconsistent John Beckett. Sean Casey has done a very nice job and will be counted on more heavily as Ortiz recovers. Jacoby Ellsbury has begun to hit and already has 28 steals; he, along with Dustin Pedroia, are having solid sophomore seasons. They’ll be right there at the end and have already shown they can beat the Rays, at least at home.

The Blue Jays can’t seem to hit much this year and have again been hit by key injuries, although not as many and not for the extended periods of time as in 2007. Scott Rolen has been very good and has been healthy since his early season DL trip. David Eckstein, although batting ninth in the order now and coming off an injury, is still the sparkplug the Jays hoped for when they signed him over the winter. Alex Rios has been unproductive power and RBI wise, but some of that is due to his batting in the leadoff spot for a time. Still, it’s a big drop from last year’s breakout season and something that must be of concern to Blue Jays officials. Vernon Wells missed a month due to injury but still leads the team in RBIs (27). It’s been the pitching that has the Jays still in the race for the east. Toronto has the third lowest ERA (3.49) and most complete games (7). Doc Halladay is back to his old self, and while A.J. Burnett has been his usual inconsistent self, he has remained healthy. B.J. Ryan is back as the closer and his awesome self and Shawn Marcum, Jesse Litsch and Dustin McGowan have been at least solid all season. The middle relief has been outstanding this season. If this team ever gets the offense going, they could be dangerous.

The Yankees are starting to hit, and the return of Jorge Posada can only be good news. The young starting pitchers, except for Joba Chamberlain, (forget his first start of the season), have been disappointing so far, but Mariano Rivera is still pitching like a kid. And Chien Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte and, yes, even Mike Mussina are getting the job done. The Yankees have had some pleasant surprises with middle relief, (Chris Britton and Brian Bruney), but LaTroy Hawkins has been brutal and Kyle Farnsworth typically inconsistent. If Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy had been able to do their jobs, the Yankees would have left Joba in the set-up role, where he was unhittable. If the Yankees get to the playoffs, it will be at the hands of the offense. That’s what happened last year, and they’re starting to roll again. Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano are having a down year, but their track record is too solid for that to continue.

The Orioles seem to be buying what manager Dave Trembley is selling. But even getting the maximum effort out of his players won’t help Trembley and the Orioles that much; they just don’t have the players to contend. They’re still saddled with players like Melvin Mora, Ramon Hernandez and Jay Payton. Offense remains a problem, and the starting pitching scares me after Jeremy Guthrie. Daniel Cabrera continues to be very good or very bad, with walks still a problem. But in the bullpen, closer George Sherrill has 19 saves and Matt Albers has an ERA of 2.01. Andrew Loewen is hurt again and thus far the centre piece of the Erik Bedard trade, Adam Jones, hasn’t. But Jones is young and Trembley, to his credit, is sticking with him. Baltimore still doesn’t have a major league shortstop or first baseman and are only a Brian Roberts or Nick Markakis injury away from dropping permanently into last place.

Most of the game’s new managers are going to have to be patient – their teams are going to lose a lot of games over the next few years. Here’s a look at the new managers and the challenges they face.

Trey Hillman, Royals

Hillman was a very odd choice, and fears have already surfaced in Kansas City that this manager who has experience only in Japan, might not be in any way ready for the majors. He is tinkering with the lineup, submitting very odd batting orders and bunting far too often with the wrong people. Japanese baseball is in no way the equal of the major leagues and while it’s noble that the Royals didn’t go to the retread mill in selecting their new skipper, there were far better choices out there. But as in the case of Pittsburgh and Baltimore, the Royals have been bad, are bad, and will be bad for quite some time. The Royals need someone guiding the team on the field who won’t potentially ruin young players like Alex Gordon and Billy Butler by batting them in odd spots, using too much platooning, and bunting with them if the “book” calls for it rather than turning them loose. The Royals are on the right track with the hiring of several veteran management personnel from the Atlanta organization, but I think Hillman is a big mistake on their part.

Cecil Cooper, Astros

Not much has been said or heard about the new Houston Astro manager. He was an Astros bench coach last season before he took over after the firing of Phil Garner, and he had the interim tag removed during the offseason. He had a very productive major league career and is well respected throughout the game. Cooper is a much unknown commodity as a manager and it seems at this point that he is merely someone given the job to relay GM Ed Wade’s wishes. The Astros made many changes in the offseason and I believe Wade is not someone who should be running a team. Houston can’t seem to decide if they are rebuilding or simply fine tuning. It shouldn’t be too long before Cooper, instead of Wade, is used as the proverbial scapegoat and a buddy or two of Wade is brought in to further disrupt what should have been a couple of rebuilding seasons.

John Russell, Pittsburgh

The new manager of the Pittsburgh Pirates has a very successful track record in the minors as a manager (forget last season as the Ottawa Lynx were simply a very bad baseball team). He has a reputation as a very hard worker and an excellent teacher. I interviewed Russell many times last season while he managed Ottawa and can state without hesitation that he is a very fine baseball man, very patient, and a heckuva nice guy. I commend the Pirates organization for having the courage to hire a relatively unknown (to those who don’t work in baseball) baseball man. Some felt Russell was too shy and quiet to handle the job at the major league level, but that’s simply his way. That way also breeds the patience that is required to manage a team in such a mess as the Pirates find themselves. Russell of course knew this going in and while having adopted the standard baseball company line (”this team is much better than people think” and “we’ll be competitive very soon if not this season”), he knows there are many players who will need to be cut loose eventually. This season will remind him of last season in Triple A, but at least the food will be better and there won’t be those long bus rides.

Dave Trembley, Orioles

Trembley is a baseball lifer who got his big opportunity midway through last season. He managed in the minors for 20 seasons and has a deep respect for the game – something he requires of his players in terms of preparation and giving 100% each and every day. He is also very familiar with the Orioles’ minor league talent, such as it is. He surely knows the awful mess that Baltimore is, and that it will be several years before the organization can be competitive. His big project of course is Daniel Cabrera – an imposing pitcher with terrific stuff but no control and seemingly no idea of how to pitch. If the Orioles finally trade Brian Roberts to the Cubs, it should give Trembley two or three more pitchers to work with, including at least one starter. With the offseason trading of Bedard, he has to count on a large group of pitchers with injury histories and/or with little or no experience. The Oriole scouting department and higher management haven’t done a very good job evaluating talent over the years. It seems like players such as a Majewski and Penn might have been badly over rated. As in the case of John Russell, Trembley will have to teach and be patient.

Ron Washington, Rangers

Another well respected man throughout the game – just not very well respected by many of the Rangers. Washington is a very demanding type of manager which didn’t sit well with the veterans on the Rangers who were used to their mediocre play being accepted. Washington inherited a team with virtually zero pitching (”horrible” would be a more accurate term especially when discussing the starting pitching) that too often fell back on the “we pitch in a hitters park” excuse. The trading of Mark Teixeira was a good one, and keeping owner Dan Hicks away from baseball decisions is a crucial step. Rumors have been rampant that Washington is soon to be out the door, but he’s survived so far. The Rangers are not as bad as Baltimore or Pittsburgh, but they still need to be tearing down as opposed to building up. They need to trade the two or three remaining major leaguers they have and get as many prospects, especially pitching, as they can.

Joe Girardi, Yankees

Lots and lots of pressure here. The man he is replacing is a legend in New York and a guy who knew how to adapt his style to whatever type of team he was given. Girardi guided a very young and inexperienced Florida team to a pretty decent season a couple of years ago. That’s much easier to do when there are zero expectations, and when you have young players who are more easily managed. Not so with the Yankees, who are a veteran team used to a lot of rope and doing things their way. The question is not whether Girardi is a solid baseball man, (years as the Yankee bench coach and a very good job with that Florida team), but whether he’ll leave the veterans alone.

New York, however, is getting younger (Giambi, Matsui, Damon, Mussina and a few others should be gone in the next two years), so Girardi should get the chance to mold the team to his liking. Of course, if the Yankees’ slow start continues, who knows what the Steinbrenners could do.

Doug Bird was longtime Montreal Expos and Ottawa Lynx fan. Sadly, both teams are no more. He’ll be following minor league baseball on MiLB.com this season. Doug has written about baseball, music, history and politics for various websites. Like most Canadians, he has a dislike of anything from Toronto.

Tyson Whipple and his friends Jake and Rookie are on a nine day, nine ballpark trip – with plans of sleeping in their Toyota Corolla and eating peanut butter sandwiches. Tyson will be blogging about his trip daily.

Day 6

2:00 AM. Enough is enough. Sleeping in the Corolla is starting to get really old, really fast. I am 6 feet tall and 215 pounds – I’m not meant to live in such a confined living area.  I have lost a good two inches in height since our journey began from the awkward and uncomfortable positions. And having less than six inches of personal space for an extended period of time is less than optimal. I am really looking forward to the Holiday Inn and a real bed tonight.

8:00 AM. Another night in a Target parking lot and another morning using their restrooms. I know now the following:

Target will kick you out of their stores for:

• Hogging the demo Playstation 3
• Falling asleep in any of their patio furniture
• Using the handicap stall in the restroom if you yourself are not actually handicap

What’s creepy about Target is how every store so far on this trip is exactly the same. I wake up in the same parking lot and walk into what appears to be the same store, because the layout is identical to the last Target four hundred miles thatta way. It’s Deja Vu without Denzel Washington.

I also feel that my beard, or lack thereof, is starting to define me as a person. People stare at me now, and it’s not like “hey, there’s a cool guy with an awesome beard.” Instead it’s more like “hey, there’s a creepy guy with a hooded sweat shirt and scraggly beard that reminds people of the Uni Bomber.” Two days ago a mother actually grabbed her child’s hand and pulled him aside so he didn’t walk past me. That’s right, this beard is ruining my life.

12:30 PM. We arrive early at Camden Yards. The layout of the city and the cool warehouse that is behind right field makes for a great look. Unfortunately the good times don’t last all that long as the game is delayed two hours because of rain. Thankfully that didn’t slow down Nationals’ starter John Lannan, who put on an absolute clinic this afternoon and held the O’s to one run in 7 1/3 innings. Lannan kept the home team’s offense off balance all day, giving up only four hits and walking one.

Another rain delay left men on 2nd and 3rd for the Orioles, who were trailing 2-0. After the delay, Brian Roberts brought in a run on a sac fly and Melvin Mora grounded out to end the inning. Jon Rauch came into the game in the ninth and sealed the win for the Nationals and prevented a three-game Orioles sweep. Even though the game took six hours, it was a really great time. Camden has been my second favorite park so far, behind Wrigley. Off to Boston on Monday.

Washington, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Tampa have been the proverbial doormats the past few years. If you had to play for one of these organizations, which would it be? – Peter C.

All four organizations appear to be on the rise, and that’s a great sign for baseball. To answer your question I’d ask myself two separate questions: 1) which place could I be the most productive in and 2) who has the best components to win and get to the post season.

Baltimore would be my first pick. I played some of my best offensive baseball there. I loved getting ready to prepare to play a game there, and they had great facilities for the players. They have a new General Manager/President, Andy MacPhail, who is one of the best. Aligning yourself with a class act like Andy is always a good move. He’s a straight shooter and is a no nonsense type executive with a passion for the game. Terry Crowley is the hitting coach and that would be another very important reason for my decision. Hitting coaches are vital the success of a lot of players, and Crow is one of the best; we were together in Minnesota in 1991. A team needs three things to win: horses on the field, the manager/staff capable of managing a World Series game, and a supportive front office – and that doesn’t just mean paying high salaries. With MacPhail and the staff, the Orioles have two of the three in place.

Pittsburgh would be my 1A choice. I wouldn’t have felt that prior to this year, but they’ve brought a lot of great management talent. They have some of the best evaluators and leaders in scouting. Neal Huntington, Greg Smith, Larry Corrigan – and their new president, Frank Coonelly. I’ve heard good things about Coonelly – that’s he’s tough on Scott Boras and he’s an ex hockey player. And I know John Russell is a tough cookie. I like the blue-collar crowd, and I think other players will like it too.

And the Rays are looking pretty good this year, so I couldn’t go wrong with them either. I was extremely fortunate to be surrounded by some of the best athletes in the world when I played. It always motivated me to play in an environment with so many skilled players, and Tampa has plenty.

THE MOVE 

Luis Hernandez stepped in last year while Miguel Tejada was injured and, if nothing else, played good defense for the Baltimore Orioles. Assuming that trend would continue, the team decided it was worth looking the other way on his 73 OPS plus and his career .621 OPS in 6 minor league seasons. After all, with Hernandez at short, Brian Roberts at second and newly acquired Adam Jones in centerfield, the team would at least be solid up the middle defensively.

But then Hernandez went out and made 7 errors during spring training. Manager Dave Trembley has said all the right things about having faith in Hernandez, but he and GM Andy MacPhail have to be searching for alternatives to the 23 year old with no bat to speak of and now shaky confidence in the field. Their only alternative within the system is Brandon Fahey, a nice utility player in the mold of Joe McEwing.

It’s early in the season and fans and general managers alike must resist the urge to make knee-jerk decisions to fix problems that pop up, but if Luis Hernandez does not show at least some signs of the defensive presence he displayed last year in the first week or so of the season, the Orioles will have to go outside the organization for help. Defense at shortstop is the one thing no team can survive without. A team like the Orioles will be bad this year no matter what, but if they can’t get to balls up the middle, it will be downright embarrassing.

But what can the Orioles do? Who has an extra shortstop?

Well, the Atlanta Braves do.

It looks like Yunel Escobar is the real deal; the Braves certainly had enough faith in him to trade Edgar Renteria this off-season and hand Escobar the job. The Braves also have Brent Lillibridge, a shortstop who will start the season at Triple-A this year but, were it not for Escobar, probably would have been the Braves opening day shortstop himself.

Lillibridge does not have the overall ceiling that Escobar has, but he has proven to be a solid player nonetheless. Appearing to be blocked at both shortstop by Escobar and centerfield (his other position) by Braves top prospect Jordan Schaffer, the Braves might be inclined to deal Lillibridge to help bolster some of the holes on their major league roster.

One of those holes is in the bullpen, as has been evidenced in the very early part of the season. One more reliable reliever, teamed with Mike Gonzalez when he returns from injury and Rafael Soriano if they ever get to him, would give the Braves a very formidable bullpen. Missing is one reliable right-handed set-up man.

Enter the Orioles.

Braves get:

• Chad Bradford (RP)
• Freddie Bynum (UTIL)
• David Hernandez (SP)

Orioles get:

• Brent Lillibridge (SS)
• Blaine Boyer (RP)
• Martin Prado or Ruben Gotay (INF)

Chad Bradford would help solidify the back end of the Braves bullpen. As long as they are willing to cough up the $3.5M owed to him this year and next, there is no reason the Braves wouldn’t welcome him to their pen. The Orioles do not want to part with Bradford, who was one of the few reliable relievers they had last season, but if it meant being able to acquire a potential starting shortstop who could play immediately, then they would be foolish not to take the chance.

Blaine Boyer would take Bradford’s place in the Orioles bullpen. He is no doubt a downgrade, but he does have one good major league season under his belt (2005 at the age of 23) and is not too far removed from that season to think he can’t still be a productive major league player. Bynum would be an upgrade from either Prado or Gotay, whichever the Braves would be willing to part with. He’s a more productive hitter than Prado and a better fielder than Gotay, and provides more options for Bobby Cox.

Hernandez is a minor leaguer with a live arm that might be enough to put the trade over the edge and entice the Braves to give up Lillibridge and take on Bradford’s salary.

I would not make this trade tomorrow, but if the season progresses down the road it has started on, this trade will be a necessity for both squads.

If you have alternative ideas for solving the Orioles shortstop situation, or any other suggestions, please e-mail your ideas to Jeff at dugoutcentralGMlist@gmail.com.

THE LIST

While watching Davidson upset team after team in the NCAA tournament, it occurred to me that it wasn’t that Stephen Curry was that much better than everyone else, but that he played the game the right way. If you focused in on him the entire game rather than just following the ball, you would see that he never stops moving. If you wanted to teach a group of young players how to move without the ball, you won’t find a better example than the four games Curry played in the tournament.

This got me to thinking. If I wanted to teach young baseball players how to play the game the right way, what players would I tell them to watch? Here are my ten:

10 – Mariano Rivera

In a day when kids want to start throwing curveballs at age nine, Rivera is the example of how to be successful by pitching the right way. Rivera will go down as arguably the greatest closer of all time, and he only throws one pitch.

9 – David Eckstein

I will spare you all the clichés about how he hustles and plays his heart out. Eckstein is worth watching because he is the best example in the game today of knowing what you are and being the best you can be in that role. Rather than trying to jack some balls out of the park hoping to hit 10-12 HRs a season, Eckstein knows exactly what his role on a team is, and he works on that.

8 – Eric Byrnes

So he’s a bit over the top on the Fox broadcasts in the postseason, and his hair is wacky, and he’s unconventional and didn’t break out until age 30. Byrnes plays every game like he’s trying not to be the one last cut from the JV team. You have to respect that kind of energy. If only you could teach it.

7 – Barry Bonds

Didn’t see that one coming did you? I wouldn’t want Barry Bonds to take my kid to his personal trainer, but from a pure hitting standpoint you’re not going to find a better example. By the end of his career, Bonds had perfected his swing to the point where he was literally a machine at the plate. Whether or not steroids helped him get it that way is another discussion, but his swing is perfect, and is one of the best examples for a young hitter to watch.

6 – Aaron Rowand

He won over Philadelphia fans with his hard-nosed play (no pun intended), something which is not easy to do (just ask Scott Rolen).

5 – Ken Griffey Jr.

Has anyone every seemed like they were having as much fun playing the game as Griffey did when he first broke into the league? On top of that, he was the best player in the game for the better part of a decade. He’s slowed down some in Cincinnati as the years have caught up with him, but now he’s a great example of how to adapt and adjust, which is a strong lesson for young players as they start to incur failures at higher levels of play.

4 – David Wright

Simply a great all-around player and hustler. There’s really not one thing Wright doesn’t do well. If you take your kid to a Mets game, have him watch Wright in between pitches in the field and you’ll see the nuances of the game come to life.

3 – Chase Utley

The obvious reasons Utley makes this list are his all-out hustle, hard-nosed play, and remarkable ability to play the game. But Utley’s true impact might not be something you can even see on TV or at a game in person. A team takes on the attitude of its leader. Bobby Abreu had been the leader of that team for years and while Bobby is a great player, his laid back, “sometimes hustle-sometimes-don’t” attitude was a detriment to his team. The minute he left, Chase Utley became that leader of that team, and it changed their entire approach to the game.

2 – Greg Maddux

It’s so tough for a pitcher to make a list like this, especially a starter who only plays once every five days, but Maddux is the best example of how to pitch that we have seen in this generation. The most important aspects of pitching are location, movement, and speed, in that order, despite the scouts’ obsession with radar guns. Greg Maddux has proven this point for the past twenty years. If you want to teach a young pitcher how to set up a hitter, have him watch Maddux.

1 – Derek Jeter

Some love him and some hate him. Some say he’s overrated, some say he’s underrated. Regardless of your opinion of Derek Jeter, there is no argument that he plays baseball the way it was meant to be played. Jeter could have played for any team in any era, which is one of the ultimate compliments you can give a player. From his approach at the plate of keeping his hands inside the ball and having a short swing, to his hustling nature sending him into the stands for a foul ball, or just his overall baseball instincts, Jeter is the ultimate player to learn from. Two of the lasting baseball memories of this generation are Jeter plays: The flip against the A’s in Game 3 of the 2001 ALDS and the crash into the stands along the third base foul line at Yankee Stadium against the Mets. Those are the types of plays you can’t teach.

I got the chance to join a couple of friends for Opening Day at Camden Yards Monday afternoon. It was cold, it was wet, it was the Orioles and Rays … BUT it was still Opening Day, so there wasn’t a better place to be. Here are some observations – at least the ones that didn’t get smeared by the drizzle.

* I’m looking forward to my first visit to (This Space Reserved for Corporate Sponsor) National’s Park later this summer, but Camden Yards is still a great place to watch a game. We were sitting in the first row of the upper deck directly behind home plate, which offered us a great view of the proceedings. Unfortunately, it no longer offers a great view of the city. As I looked out toward left center field, I was greeted by the sight of the new convention center being constructed directly across the street from the stadium. I’m sure that someday it will be a fine looking convention center, but it destroys the view out of the stadium and into downtown. Baltimore has never been known for its skyline, but the Bromo Seltzer tower is a unique and easily identifiable landmark. Fans used to be able to see it out in the city and it helped convey a sense of openness and a connection to the city beyond the outfield walls. The new building not only blocks the view of the tower, but it looms over the upper deck and makes the stadium feel closed in. I don’t like it.

* Aubrey Huff is in for a long year. Over the winter, Huff was interviewed on something called the “Bubba the Love Sponge Show” on Sirius radio. Amongst other nuggets offered by Mr. Huff, he referred to Baltimore as “a horsebleep town”. This comment received a lot of play in the Baltimore media, and even though Huff had offered an apology during the spring there was really no chance the fine people of “Charm City” were going to let it go. Every time he appeared Monday afternoon he was booed lustily and he was the subject of many profane comments. The best one I heard was in the fourth inning. Huff got sawed off by Rays’ pitcher James Shields and his bat shattered all over the infield. As he walked back to the dugout to grab a new bat a woman about four rows behind us yelled “That’s cause you’re an $%%&*#@!” Like I said, “Charm City”.

* If you’re sitting along the baseline and close to the field you really need to pay close attention to the game. A woman down the right field line never moved as a line shot entered the stands and hit her in the face. She ended up walking out under her own power so the story ends well, but people in the good seats really need to watch the game.

* There’s an old saying that one of the great things about baseball is that every time you go to the ballpark you see something you’ve never seen before. On Opening Day at Camden Yards that was an odd double play in the Orioles’ half of the eighth inning. Melvin Mora took a called third strike with Brian Roberts breaking from first. Mora tried to sell the pitch as inside by bending dramatically away from the plate, and in so doing he lost his balance and stumbled toward the catcher. He never touched him, and I’m not even sure Navarro was going to make a throw since Roberts had the bag stolen easily, but the umpire called Roberts out by interference. Orioles’ manager Dave Trembley made a calm protest of the call for a few minutes, but I’m pretty sure the umpiring crew had early dinner reservations.

* The Rays put up three runs in the third and effectively ended the game with two in the sixth to make the score 6-2. They might have scored more in the latter inning were it not for an ill-advised double steal attempt with Dioner Navarro on the front end. Needless to say, he was out by a large margin, and I was left wondering why they tried the play with Carl Crawford at the plate.

* James Shields settled down nicely after giving up two runs in the first. The two runs would’ve been unearned in any other park but Carl Crawford’s misplay of Kevin Millar’s fly ball at the wall was ruled a “hometown” double by the official scorer. Crawford was in position in plenty of time to make the play, jumped for no apparent reason, and the ball seemed to glance off the inside of his glove. At a minimum he owes Shields a couple of beers.

* With the exception of Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis there isn’t anybody on the Baltimore roster to get excited about. I suppose it will be interesting to see Adam Jones develop over the season, but since he’s still only 22 years old there are probably going to be more lows than highs for awhile.

Quick Notes

* Ben Sheets stifled the Cubs on Opening Day, giving up two hits and two walks over six and a third innings while striking out seven. These kinds of outings aren’t really that unusual for Sheets, but Brewers’ fans have learned to not get too excited by them because of his inability to stay healthy. If the Brew Crew is going to make a serious run at the Cubs this year, Sheets has to post 30 starts.

What your friends and co-workers would be talking about at the water cooler, if they all loved baseball as much as you do.

A few observations from last night’s “Presidential” Opener in Washington:

Nationals Park is a beauty. I heard a number of comparisons to Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, and aesthetically they do have a similar feel. One difference – there would have been 4 home runs last night instead of 2 had the game been in Philadelphia. Brian McCann’s liner off the wall would have been out at CBP as would Mark Teixeira’s double in the top of the 9th. The latter didn’t have any effect on the game’s outcome as Tex eventually came around to score, but McCann was thrown out at second on his hit. We don’t know how the new park will play, but these are all things to keep an eye on as we start to get a feel.

Hopefully you put the kids to bed as soon as Ryan Zimmerman hit his walk-off home run. It didn’t take a lip reader to see what Zimmerman yelled at the ball as he was trying to “coax” it (his words) out of the ballpark on his way to first base. It’s the same thing the sports world was jumping on Tiger Wood’s back about just a week ago (minus the threat of violence). Right or wrong, it’s a part of sports, and in today’s media driven age of super-zoom lenses and HD everything, it’s going to become quite obvious to fans what really happens down on the field. If people have a problem with it, they are going to have to start looking the other way or stop watching sports altogether. Athletes have been cursing on the field for a hundred years and they’re not stopping any time soon.

Every baseball analyst present last night, including Peter Gammons and Joe Morgan, blatantly stated that last night’s game was the official opener of the Major League Baseball season, and that the games in Japan didn’t count as the real start of the season. The fans have already made that opinion felt, but it was interesting to hear two of the most respected men in baseball saying the same thing on a national broadcast. It leaves me wondering, is there anyone who was in favor of playing in Japan?

Kudos to Andy MacPhail for having the fortitude to let oft-injured outfielder/1B/DH/admitted steroid user Jay Gibbons go just before the start of the season. From a baseball standpoint, this was a no-brainer, but the hang up is in the almost $12M still owed to Gibbons over the next two years. Is that a reason to keep a player on your team who is actually doing more damage than good? That’s where most teams make up a phony injury and stash the player on the DL (see Phillies 2007, Adam Eaton). Good work by MacPhail.

Kudos also to Joe Torre for announcing that Andre Ethier will be the starting LF for the Dodgers, ahead of the much higher paid Juan Pierre. That’s the kind of difference Torre makes as manager. Do you think Grady Little has the guts to make that move? More importantly, Torre’s track record of success means the move is barely questioned. His presence in the dugout allows moves like this to be made, and it’s a good move for the team.

Enjoy Opening Day!

What are your friends talking about? E-mail your baseball conversation topics to Jeff at dugoutcentralGMlist at gmail dot com.

BOSTON RED SOX

Expectation for 2008: Boston won the AL East in 2007 and beat the Rockies to claim a second World Series in four years. Most of the roster returns, so another AL East title and serious contention for the 2008 World Series is a reasonable expectation.

Biggest strength: David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez hitting 3rd and 4th. Say what you will about the knee of Ortiz or Ramirez taking more days off than Ferris Bueller, but when these guys get hot the Red Sox are tough to beat.

Biggest Weakness: Starting pitching. More bad backs than the set of “Golden Girls.” Relying on Clay Buchholz/Jon Lester/Bartolo Colon to carry you throughout the regular season is a point of concern. Now is the time to trade Coco Crisp for a starter who will throw 200 innings.

Player the Sox Cannot Afford to Lose: Jason Varitek. Sure he is now 35 years old and only hit .257 last season. But he wears the “C” on his jersey for a reason. His leadership on and off the field and his ability to handle a diverse pitching staff make him arguably the most valuable player on the Red Sox.

Player to Break Out: J.D. Drew. Yes, I said it. Drew in 2007 was like the Big Dig. Extremely frustrating and cost a lot of money. The good news is that Drew doesn’t have to do much to win back the hearts of the Fenway faithful because he set expectations so low last year. If he hits .285 with 20 homers and a 100 RBI’s in 2008 it would be a “great year” for Drew. $70 million does not buy what it used to.

Bust: All Aboard! All aboard the Mike Lowell bandwagon! Taking nothing away from a fantastic 2007, but Lowell is a classic example of a player who peaked in a free agent year and got paid for past performance. I think Lowell will have a good year, not a great year. This is a guy who hit .236 in 2005 and increased his batting average by 40 points last season. Do not expect it to continue in 2008.

Will win the division if: Top of the rotation stays reasonably healthy and the Sox get a surprise contribution from a 4th or 5th starter.  

NEW YORK YANKEES

Expectation for 2008: Second place finish, AL East. Strong contender for Wild Card.

Biggest Strength: Deep lineup with offensive talent. Nice mix of experienced veterans and promising young prospects. The Joe Girardi factor. New manager will bring change to a team that needed it.
 
Biggest Weakness: Starting Pitching. Sorry, but Hughes/Kennedy/Chamberlain could struggle this year. Both have a ton of potential but what about consistency? With names like Mike Mussina and possible Kei Igawa being thrown around for making appearances in the rotation, it will not be the month of June before a Yankees official says, “We should have made the trade for Johan Santana.” Honorable Mention: 1st Base. 
 
Player Yankees cannot afford to lose: Derek Jeter. While Alex Rodriguez may be the best player on the Yankees, he is not the most important. At the risk of sounding like Pags, could the Yankees win a World Series if A-Rod went down? Maybe. Could the Yankees win a World Series if Jeter went down? No.

Breakout: Robinson Cano is not considered a breakout candidate because of his previous success, but look for him to continue to improve in 2008. 
 
Bust: LaTroy Hawkins. Still not sure why the Yankees made this move.

Will win the division if: Red Sox starters break down. Hughes and Kennedy win a combined 25 + games. Players really respond to Girardi. Bobby Abreu and Johnny Damon rebound in 2008. Steinbrenner keeps his mouth shut. 

TORONTO BLUE JAYS 

Expectation for 2008: Another winning season but a third place finish in the AL East.

Strengths: Top two starters. If, and it is a huge ” if,” Toronto’s Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett stay healthy for an entire season, it will be the best 1-2 combo in the AL East.

Weaknesses: Injury history. Toronto has a good team on paper. Can they all stay healthy in 2008?
 
Player Blue Jays Cannot Afford to Lose: Alex Rios. Rios has improved statistically in hits, homers, RBI’s, steals, and OBP every season since 2005. If Rios went down, Toronto’s chances of taking the AL East or Wildcard would go from slim to none.

Breakout: Dustin McGowan. In 2007, McGowan got his chance in the Toronto starting rotation and threw his mid-90’s sinking fastball for a 12-10 record. I am especially encouraged by a strong second half which included a 3.67 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP.

Bust: Scott Rolen. Found in a classified advertisement: Looking to acquire an aged, declining veteran, who recently had shoulder surgery (last September) who could possibly reduce his single digit home run total in 2007. Looking for a batting average around .250-.275. History of problems with management preferred!
 
Will win the division if: Halladay and Burnett stay healthy. Red Sox starters break down. Yankees young pitchers fail to live up to expectations. Vernon Wells has a monster season and BJ Ryan becomes a lights out closer again following Tommy John surgery. It is certainly a stretch to predict an AL East title for the Blue Jays this season, but it is possible.

TAMPA BAY RAYS

Expectation: 4th place finish in the AL East.

Player they cannot afford to lose: Scott Kazmir. This came to my attention after Kazmir’s health scare a few weeks ago. If Tampa announced he was done for the year, so would the Tampa Bay Rays hope for success in 2008. He anchors a young staff and had 13 wins and 239 strikeouts in 2007.

Bust: Carlos Pena. He hit .235 in 2005 and had one home run in 2006. Pena will not even come close to his 46 home runs in 2007. B.J. Upton will hit more homers than Pena in 2008.

Breakout: Matt Garza. In 2007, his record was 4-2 with a 2.49 ERA on the road. Pitching in the AL East will prove to be a tough adjustment for Garza, but he will develop this season into a top of the rotation starter.

Team Strength: Potential of staff. Kazmir, Garza and James Shields (all under the age of 27) should be fun to watch.
 
Weakness: Very young team. Uncertainty at third base, second base and shortstop. Who will play where and how will they adjust to the position?
 
Will win the Division if: Not this year, Rays fans.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Expectation: Last place in AL East.

Player they cannot afford to lose: Nick Markakis. Their leader in a majority of offensive categories last season, a lineup without Markakis goes from bad to historically bad.

Biggest Strength: Outfield. Luke Scott, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis will have ups and downs but should impress in 2008.

Biggest Weakness: Where to begin? Let’s not.

Breakout: Luke Scott. Part of the Tejada deal, Scott hit 18 homers in 239 at-bats last season. That is more homers than Bobby Abreu and Michael Cuddyer displayed in 2007 in 200 fewer plate appearances. Baltimore will give him a chance to play every day this year, and Scott should take advantage of the opportunity. Honorable Mention: Aubrey Huff.

Bust: Jeremy Guthrie. This Stanford product burst into the scene in 2007 with great success. But hitters adjusted to Guthrie as indicated by his 5.03 ERA after the All-Star Break. Even worse, he did not get a win in August or September. Throw in his low strikeout totals, and he’ll hit your fantasy waiver this year quicker than you can say “Chris Shelton.”
 
Will win the division if: The “Mitchell Report II: The Return of Mitchell” is released implicating the entire Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays and Rays organizations. The Orioles would have a shot. Without any sequel plans in place, the Orioles have no hope for a division title in 2008.  

THE TRADE

The injury bug has hit Port St. Lucie this spring, with the Geritol trio of Moises Alou, Carlos Delgado, and Orlando Hernandez all down and/or out with injuries. The biggest hit thus far, however, has been the nagging hip injury of Delgado. A hip injury on a 36-year-old (former catcher nonetheless) would be worrisome enough, but it is the same injury that caused Delgado to miss some time towards the end of 2007. Even though they are saying the problem is still minor (and indeed he’s already back in action), Delgado hasn’t played 150 games in a season since he was with Toronto in 2003. The Mets are going to need some insurance at first base.

The Baltimore Orioles don’t have an excess of much, but they actually have two first basemen and a couple of extra outfielders. Kevin Millar and Jay Payton are two players with some value who could help the Mets get through their injury troubles early in the season. Right now, the Mets replacements for Alou are Angel Pagan (career 81 OPS+), non-roster invitee Brady Clark (94), and Endy Chavez (76) who has yet to play a spring training game. Payton (95) is a more reliable option than any of the three. The Mets really have no option on the roster at first base if Delgado can’t go. Millar (115) would give them a veteran clubhouse presence, a security option in case Delgado gets hurt and a viable starter to play in his place against lefties, allowing Delgado some extra days off to better get through the season.

Here’s the deal:

Mets get:

• Kevin Millar – 1B
• Jay Payton - OF

Orioles get:

• Ambiorix Burgos –RP
• Ruben Gotay – IF
• Robert Parnell – SP

The Orioles are still stockpiling young talent, while jettisoning veterans. Burgos is currently out for most or all of 2008 after having Tommy John surgery last August, but he’s still young and has a power arm. He could be back in time to pitch a few innings in September and be ready for a spot in the 2009 Orioles bullpen.

Gotay is another young talent, and he doesn’t seem to have a home in Flushing. He has yet to do much in his major league career (81 career OPS+), but was probably rushed to the big leagues when he was in Kansas City. He showed improvement in New York in 2007 and is still only 25. During his minor league career, he showed significant gap power, averaging 40 doubles a season when projected out to 162 games. That could translate into decent pop for a second baseman, his natural position, and more importantly, would allow the Orioles to finally pull the trigger on the Brian Roberts deal we all know is inevitable.

Parnell is a raw power arm who the Mets have been using as a starter. He will be 24 this year, but he pitched at AA last season with moderate success. He would be a nice addition to the hoard of young arms the Orioles have collected this off-season.

As always, if you have a trade of your own you would like to suggest, please send it to dugoutcentralGMlist at gmail dot com.

THE LIST

We all know the storylines this spring. Johan Santana got traded. So did Erik Bedard. The Phillies and Mets have been yapping it up. The Yankees have young talented pitchers. CC Sabathia might leave Cleveland. The Cubs think they will finally be good. All this and I haven’t even mentioned Congress.

But what are the stories no one is talking about? Here are ten of them:

10 – Sleeper Teams

Everyone is picking the Rays to make great strides this year. They are this year’s team with so much hype they can’t possibly live up to it. I love what they are doing in Tampa, but this is not their year. It is coming though. So who is this year’s sleeper team? It’s always a team no one is talking about. My pick? Kansas City. Will they win the AL Central? Probably not. Will they win the AL Wild Card? I doubt it. They will, however, make great strides in 2008. My prediction: Kansas City finishes with a better record than Tampa Bay. Let the bashing begin.

I love what I have seen from Trey Hillman. He held a post-game meeting immediately following a spring training game out at home plate. That’s the kind of stuff you see in college baseball. Every major league team would be better if it played with the intensity of a college team. Most MLB teams can’t pull that off because they are filled with too many rich prima donnas. The Royals certainly don’t have that problem. Hillman will get the most out of his young, talented team. They don’t quite have the pitching to compete yet, but they are getting closer, and they have some young hitters who will be exciting to watch.

9 – Tommy John takes over Baseball

Depending on what source you check, there are anywhere from 10-15 players currently on the DL due to Tommy John surgery. That’s just players on MLB 40-man rosters who are currently out. That doesn’t include those who have already had it, or those who are in the minors or college, or high school. Are pitchers having this surgery more frequently? Are doctors just relying on this surgery because it’s the easiest to diagnose and they can’t figure out anything else that is wrong? I need some stats on this. Help me out.

8 – Young Players Complaining

We are hearing about this, but not as much as we should given its magnitude. If this many young players are unhappy, don’t you think they will push for a change in the Collective Bargaining Agreement when it runs out after the 2011 season? Here’s hoping this is just some idle whining from young spoiled athletes and not the start of a movement that will lead to significant disagreements between the players and owners like there were in the early nineties. It just scares me when names like Hamels, Fielder and Papelbon are unhappy with the way baseball salaries are set up. Right, wrong, or indifferent, if the players are unhappy, Donald Fehr will fight until they are happy again.

7 – Historically Bad Teams

The Giants and Orioles are bad. Actually, that would be an insult to bad teams everywhere. They have the opportunity to be historically bad. The Orioles opening day starter will be Jeremy Guthrie, who posted a 5.21 ERA in the second half of 2007. It’s downhill after Guthrie. The Giants will feature a lineup with a 3-4-5 of Randy Winn, Bengie Molina and Aaron Rowand. It’s a good thing they both play at nice stadiums or they would end up with some Expo-esque crowds come September.

6 – The Lackluster NL Central

The Cubs are undoubtedly the favorite in the NL Central, but is that really as strong a compliment as it seems? In 2007, the game’s biggest division had only two teams over .500, and the Cardinals got worse. The Pirates haven’t had a winning season since Sid slid, and the Astros now have Ed Wade running the show. The only hopes for the Central are the youthful Reds (if Dusty lets the kids play) and the Brew Crew, which probably still does not have enough pitching. There’s not a lot of talent in this division, especially on mounds outside of Chicago.

5 – Mark Prior’s Spring Progress

Much has been made of the Padres giving Mark Prior a shot to make their rotation. What hasn’t been discussed as much is how well Prior is doing this spring. He has experienced no set-backs. He has felt no pain, and he is now throwing up over 50 pitches, close to what most starters are throwing at this point in the spring. Could this actually work for the Padres?

4 – Stolen Bases on the Rise

Moneyball might be making everyone more conscious of on base percentage, but apparently coaches didn’t read the part about how stealing bases is not a worthwhile risk. Stolen base totals have risen in the American League every year since 2005, and every year in the National League since 2003. What Moneyball didn’t consider is the pressure stealing bases puts on pitchers. Look for the trend of stealing more bases to continue to rise.

3 – Supposedly Washed up Players Playing Significant Roles

Juan Gonzalez has had exactly one at-bat since the end of the 2004 season. He hasn’t played 140 games in a season since 2001. He might make the Cardinals roster. Bartolo Colon ate his way out of Los Angeles after winning a Cy Young. If the Red Sox pitchers keep getting hurt, Colon could be their number five starter. Now, Sidney Ponson signs with the Rangers. How bad have things gotten? Somewhere Rich Garces is in training with quarter-pounder bicep curls.

2 – Opening Day in Japan

Only in the past few days with Josh Beckett’s back troubles has the talk of the 20-hour flight to Japan come up. Are you as excited as I am to get up at 6 a.m. to watch the A’s?

1 – Rays New Stadium Plans

Everyone is talking about the Rays this season, saying that this will be their most successful season ever, and that they might even break the .500 mark. This may or may not be true, and even though I am leaning towards the latter because I think they have been over hyped, I do love the direction they are going. They will be a very good team soon, but it won’t be this year because their pitching, while extremely talented, is still very young, and mostly in the minors. That being said, the thing I like most about where they are headed involve the proposal by the city of St. Petersburg, FL for a new stadium for the Rays.

Take a look at these renderings. How incredible does that look? The Rays can produce all the homegrown talent in the world, but I’m convinced that they will never be competitive as long as they play at Tropicana Field. They won’t produce enough revenue because no one wants to go there, they won’t be able to retain their own stars, and they won’t be able to sign big free agents. If they move to this new facility (and the surrounding marketplace area), they will finally be able to compete with the big boys in the AL East, and can become an elite franchise.

Are we there yet?

A common expression heard from the backseat of a vehicle may now have a whole new meaning for Baltimore fans. Let the rebuilding begin.

Here are 5 stories heading into Orioles Spring Training:

By George it’s Sherrill

Who will be the Orioles closer this year? Manager Dave Trembley will make a decision soon, and George Sherrill is the leading candidate. The Orioles acquired him from the Mariners in the Erik Bedard deal, and they needed upgrade a bullpen they spent over $40 million on last offseason. While Sherrill has only 4 career saves, he did post a 1.29 ERA in 40 appearances during the first half of 2007. Left-handed batters hit just .156 against him last season. Trembley will review his current roster and Sherrill should get the nod based on the process of elimination.

Mora is Less

Last season, Melvin Mora put up his worst numbers since 2002. The 36-year-old third basemen suffered through back and foot problems, hitting just two home runs and knocking in only 17 after the All-Star Break. Mora has a no-trade clause in his extension which takes him to 2009. The Orioles would love to move this declining veteran, along with Jay Payton, Aubrey Huff and Jay Gibbons as part of the rebuilding process, but that’s easier said than done. The Orioles will be stuck with these guys unless Isiah Thomas gets an opportunity in Major League Baseball.

When is Brian Flyin’?

It is only a matter of time until Brian Roberts is traded to the Chicago Cubs. He has value in the trade market and can help the organization start over. Roberts is a fan favorite in Baltimore and the Orioles will take their time in negotiating exactly which players they want in return. If this sounds familiar, you may be thinking of the weeks (months? years?) it took to deal Bedard to Seattle. Some speculate the Orioles may hold on to Roberts until the trading deadline. I say they make a move in the next two weeks.

Cowboy Up, Down and Around

Kevin Millar threw out the first pitch before Game 7 of the 2007 ALCS at Fenway Park and received a standing ovation. He taped a rally cry for Sox Nation on Fox. Millar later introduced the Boston line-up on the broadcast proclaiming that he was “lending my number, number 15″ to Dustin Pedroia. Oh, did I mention he still plays for a Sox division rival, the Orioles? Given permission by team boss Andy MacPhail, some Baltimore fans had no problem with Millar’s act while others voiced their displeasure. Facing teammates for the first time since his trip to Boston, I wonder if any hard feelings will exist as a result of his identity crisis last fall.

The Nick Markakis and Adam Jones Show

Markakis and Jones will be the two players to watch in 2008 and beyond. Markakis led the Orioles last season in homers (23) batting average (.300) and RBI’s (112). Will he repeat these numbers without any protection in the line-up? Jones comes to Baltimore touted as one of the best prospects in baseball. Last season, he hit just .246 with two homers and four RBI’s in 41 games with the Mariners. Only 22-years-old, the key to a successful season will be his patience. Baltimore did not acquire the young talent to replace the star power of Erik Bedard overnight. Jones and his potential represent the new organizational philosophy in Baltimore, where success in 2008 is not necessarily measured in wins and losses.

”Thank you for meeting with us today, Cal. You know our team’s history better than most. We were a model franchise built upon talented players, hard work, and great coaching- both you and your father played a major role in our success. We won World Series Championships in 1970, 1971, 1979 and 1983. We played baseball the “Oriole Way.”

“Over time, we forgot what made us great. We entered the perfect storm of bad signings (Albert Belle, Javy Lopez), acquired players with questionable integrity (19 current or ex-Orioles players cited in the Mitchell Report) and failed miserably under the pressure to compete with Boston and New York. We make no excuses for ten consecutive losing seasons. We can only look ahead. As an organization, we have begun to rebuild and we want you to be a part of it.

“As GM, I am asking you to consider becoming the new manager of the Baltimore Orioles. Our vision is to retool the team to compete with the Red Sox and Yankees in 2009, but more likely in 2010. We just traded Miguel Tejada for a host of prospects. We are on the verge of trading Brian Roberts to the Cubs and Erik Bedard to Seattle. In return, we will receive several young and talented players that will serve as the future of the franchise. We are excited about the possibility of Adam Jones on our roster. He is a five-tool talent with a plus arm and a hard worker. He is the type of a guy we know who will thrive under your leadership. Jones and our current RF Nick Markakis will be impact players for years to come.

“I am confident that Orioles baseball played the “Ripken Way” will lead to success on and off the diamond. We need to get back to the fundamentals of the game. Cal Ripken Sr. won us over a 1,000 minor and major league games. He was a teacher who developed good players into great players. Now it is your turn. You have a natural aptitude for coaching and would bring pride back into the organization. Our fans would certainly welcome your arrival and realize how committed we are to turning this storied franchise around.

“Come back, Cal. The Orioles need you. The game needs you. Think it over and let us know.”

The Situation

The future in Baltimore will be based around the following names already in their system (Name, Pos, Highest Level in 2007, 2008 Age) in no particular order:

• Nick Markakis, RF, Bal, 24
• Adam Loewen, LH SP, Bal, 24
• Garrett Olsen, RH SP, Bal, 24
• Radhames Liz, RH SP/RP, Bal, 25
• Brandon Erbe, RH SP, High A, 20
• Billy Rowell, 3B, A, 20
• Noland Reimold, AA, 24
• Troy Patton, LH SP, Hou, 21
• Matt Wieters, C, ’07 1st Rounder, 22

There is a nucleus in place in Baltimore; however that nucleus comes with a lot of question marks. Markakis is a bona fide major league bat and is on the verge of becoming a star. After that, there is little to no help at the plate. Rowell is young and at least two, probably three, years away, and Reimold has had some success, but has always been old for his level of competition.

With the addition of Patton and some other depth from Houston, the Orioles have a lot of darts to throw at the mound in hopes that some of them hit the bull’s-eye. Loewen is perhaps the most likely to have success, given that he has already had some, but he needs to stay healthy. Olsen is the most polished, but profiles no higher than a 3 or 4, although he is also the most likely to reach said potential.

Liz is an enigma of talent, and might be better suited for the bullpen, perhaps as the long-term solution at closer if Chris Ray cannot bounce back from his injuries. Patton is new guy, but might be more talented than any of the incumbents. He should be given every chance to make the O’s rotation in 2008, given that there are not many spots locked up.

The one thing missing from this group is a potential ace, but depth is key to the rebuilding process. Even if only a third of their pitching prospects have any kind of sustained major league success, that gives them 2-3 major league pitchers, which is a far cry from where they are right now.

You will notice two key names of young players missing from this list: Daniel Cabrera and Jeremy Guthrie. The city of Baltimore has had a love/hate relationship with Cabrera. They love his potential, but they hate his production. His chances of turning the corner in Baltimore are likely coming to an end, as is the patience of the fans watching him fall behind every batter. He still has all the talent in the world and someone will take a chance on him. Guys with 98 mph fastballs always get another chance.

Guthrie, on the other hand, became the darling of the city with his tremendous start last year. There would most likely be a negative backlash if they traded him, but given his significant drop off towards the end of the year, and the fact that he will be 29 next year, he is not likely to repeat his success of the first half of 2007. His stock might never be higher than it is right now to trade, and given that he will be on the wrong side of 30 once the Orioles become competitive again, it might not do them any good even if he maintains his success.

The Solution

The talks of an Erik Bedard for Homer Bailey, Joey Votto, and Josh Hamilton trade need to continue. Baltimore should give the Reds virtually anything else from their minor league system that they ask for to go along with Bedard, other than the names listed above. This trade would be a huge step towards their rebuilding with Bailey being the possible ace they are missing.

The other big-time trading piece they have is Brian Roberts, who is a great player for what he does (good defensive 2B, excellent OBP from the leadoff spot) but unfortunately will be 30 this year. Most likely he won’t be productive long enough to see through the rebuilding process. His stock will never be higher than it is now (despite the Mitchell Report, which everyone seems to agree accused Roberts with nothing but hearsay).

The Cubs are showing tremendous interest in Roberts, and have the players to make a deal. They will not part with Rich Hill, but seem willing to part with Sean Gallagher. The trade rumors going around are Roberts for Gallagher, and some combination of Ronny Cedeno, Eric Patterson, and Mike Fontenot. This does not seem like enough, especially given the need for some young bats. The Orioles would love to land Felix Pie in the deal, but the Cubs do not want to give him up.

If they can’t do a deal for Pie, then the Orioles need to get a wealth of major league ready talent, even if they are not star players. A deal like this would work:

Cubs Get

• Brian Roberts
• Ramon Hernandez
• Jay Payton

Orioles Get

• Sean Gallagher
• Mike Fontonet
• Ryan Theriot
• Matt Murton
• Eric Patterson

Fontonet and Theriot are not stars, nor are they really the long-term solution in Baltimore, but they prevent the O’s from having to start Brandon Fahey, Chris Gomez, or Freddie Bynum all year, and are at least major league players. Murton has been a productive hitter in his career thus far, and could be even more productive hitter if he got to play full time. Gallagher is a solid left handed pitching prospect and can compete for the rotation soon. Patterson should be a solid major leaguer and would be reunited with his brother in Baltimore, for the time being at least.

The O’s could ask for such a large number of players because they would be solving the Cubs two most glaring holes without touching their top prospect. They would also get Jay Payton, a serviceable placeholder until Felix Pie is ready for the majors. The Cubs would be primed to contend in 2008, allowing Soriano to move to a power position in the lineup. Their new lineup would look like this:

1. Roberts 2B
2. Fukudome CF
3. Lee 1B
4. Ramirez 3B
5. Soriano LF
6. Hernandez C
7. Payton/Pie RF
8. Cedeno SS

• Zambrano
• Lilly
• Hill
• Marshall
• Marquis

This leaves the Cubs in great shape offensively, and they were able to do it without giving up their top prospect or any pitchers projected to be in their rotation.

The last trade would be Jeremy Guthrie to the Rockies for A Shortstop Chris Nelson and Jeff Baker. Nelson, who had 42 doubles in High A last season, could be Orioles shortstop of the future, but is currently road blocked in Colorado by Troy Tulowitzki and Hector Gomez. Jeff Baker has some pop but no real opening in the lineup in Colorado. The Rockies would love to add another starter.

There are more moves that can be made including moving Melvin Mora, and if they can find a taker, Aubrey Huff, but those moves will most likely not draw significant prospects in return. At best, they can find some role players to make them somewhat competitive until their young guys can compete.

A look at your new 2008 Orioles:

• LF-Matt Murton
• CF-Josh Hamilton
• RF-Nick Markakis
• 1B-Joey Votto
• 2B-Eric Patterson/Ryan Theriot
• 3B-Ryan Theriot/Scott Moore
• SS-Mike Fontonet
• C- Paul Bako/Free Agent
• DH-Millar/Huff/Luke Scott (if not traded)

• Adam Loewen
• Homer Bailey
• Daniel Cabrera
• Gallagher/Olsen/Patton/Liz

The projected Orioles of 2010-2011:

• LF-Matt Murton/Nolan Reimold
• CF-Josh Hamilton
• RF Nick Markakis
• 1B- Joey Votto
• 2B- Eric Patterson
• 3B- Billy Rowell
• SS- Chris Nelson
• C- Matt Wieters
• DH- TBD

• Homer Bailey
• Adam Loewen
• Gallagher/Olsen/Patton/Erbe

CP Liz

These moves would put the Orioles on the right path towards forming a young nucleus that could grow together and make the kind of turnaround that has been seen in Milwaukee and Philadelphia. There are no Prince Fielders or Chase Utleys here, but there is some serious talent. Coupled with wise spending in free agency after 2008 and 2009, they can be competitive very soon.

The Houston Astros have completed a trade for Baltimore Orioles shortstop, Miguel Tejada. This is the first of a few possible moves for Baltimore in attempts to dump as of many of their large salary players in attempts to rebuild a franchise that has fallen from grace in recent years.

With this move, Baltimore has taken the first step in rebuilding – and what a step it was.

Houston traded five players for the star shortstop including every day player Luke Scott and four minor leaguers: Matt Albers, Troy Patton, Dennis Sarfate and Mike Costanzo. In today’s baseball environment giving up this many prospects for a 31 year old, slightly above average shortstop is inexcusable and a colossal blunder for the Astros front office.

Let’s take a look at Tejada’s last three seasons, including his 2007 campaign in which he missed 29 games due to injury

AB R H 2B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG

2005 - 654 89 199 50 26 98 40 83 .304 .349 .515

2006 - 648 99 214 37 24 100 46 79 .330 .379 .498

2007 - 514 72 152 19 18 81 41 55 .296 .357 .442

Of most concern is Tejada’s sub .360 OBP in all but two of his eleven seasons, one of which he tied that number. In fact, his ’06 on base of .379 marked a career high, even in his MVP season (2002) he OBPed .354. Tejada made up for this in the past with great power numbers, low strikeout totals and consistenly hitting 35 doubles. It is clear that the power is starting to fade (36/26/24/18) and the walks are never going to be anything more than pedestrian. While the doubles should still be there, how valuable is a 15-20 HR/20-30 2B hitting SS who rarely walks with a career .821 OPS?

Tejada ranked twentieth among MLB shortstops in BB and twenty-eighth in 2B. His .799 OPS in 2007 was seventh, and his 18 HR’s were good for ninth among MLB shortstops. His numbers should see a slight increase hitting in Houston and in a better line-up, but should only serve to mask his decline. Tejada is about a top 15 MLB shortstop, but at 31, with a lot of games played and a visible decline in numbers, he shouldn’t stay that way for long.

The Tejada part of this trade can be defended to a point – what cannot is the prospect package Baltimore received. While the other players are fine, the centerpieces of the deal are LHP Patton and 3B Costanzo. These were two of the team’s ten best prospects and are, at most, a season away from contributing to the Orioles.

Costanzo, at 23, seems ready after tearing up AA Reading - putting up 29 2B/75 BB/27 HR/.858 OPS. While the strikeout totals are high (157 in 508 AB), they are mitigated by solid walk totals, great power and a serviceable on-base percentage (.368).

Patton, 21, a lefty starter with 445 minor league innings under his belt, could probably start in Baltimore’s rotation next season. In his last 24 starts, spanning 151.1 IP in AA/AAA, Patton recorded a 1.19 WHIP and allowed a paltry 15 home runs. While he only struck out 93 batters over that span, he only issued 44 walks, good for a 2.1:1 K/BB ratio. Two walks, three hits and four to five strikeouts per six innings is pretty good for a 21 year-old.

The Baltimore Orioles acquired two major-league ready players, at valuable positions, along with two other prospects and an every day player for a declining shortstop who made almost $14 million in 2007.

The Astros line-up should be formidable in the NL Central, possibly making them the favorite, with the addition of Tejada to Carlos Lee and the up and coming Hunter Pence. But he is a temporary fix at best. Houston overpaid for another star, as they did with the Lee signing in 2006 and the recent Kazuo Matsui signing this off-season. Mortgaging much of the farm will cost this team in the not-so-distant future and is just one more mistake in an increasingly long line of blunders for the Houston Astros front office.

Pags: Keep Him

It’s not every day a premium starter comes through your franchise, and to have Erik Bedard’s name being thrown around in trade rumors is quite unordinary. But it’s happening, so let’s talk about what the Orioles should do.

How do the lowly Baltimore Orioles handle such a desired left hand pitcher?

First let’s start by understanding what Bedard is:

• He is a Premium category pitcher
• He is a number one or two on any staff in baseball
• He is durable
• He is a strikeout pitcher
• His statistics are phenomenal
• And he’s left handed

Why shouldn’t every team in baseball want this guy?

Here is what Baltimore should do. During the month of October the hierarchy gave their blessing to the scouting and development personnel of the organization - the basic foundation of every franchise. The Orioles should stand behind this blessing and stay with their core group including: Liz, Erbe, Rowell, Snyder, Florimon, etc. Keeping Bedard shows commitment by the Baltimore front office to building from within. It also tells their core players: “we stand behind what we build!”

Now if for some nutty reason the Orioles decide to trade Bedard, this would highly contradict all assurances handed out at the organization meetings. Trading Bedard for prospects would prove without a doubt that there is little to NO trust in the scouting and development departments. Yes, they could (or at least they should) get a ton in return from him, but an franchise with such deep pockets needs to show its fans, players and prospects they’re committed to building – and building from within.

The Bottom Line: The Orioles Need to Keep Bedard, or the Nationals will inherit a ton of good baseball fans.

Adam: Trade Him

The Orioles are a terrible team. Their major league roster ranks ahead of just the Giants in terms of the number of players with value. Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, Erik Bedard, Jeremy Guthrie, Jamie Walker, Chad Bradford and Chris Ray are the only players who contributed in a meaningful way in 2007. Take a look at the bullpen, where 10 pitchers had an ERA of above 6.00 (with a minimum of 10 IP). How does a team that spent $93M on its major league roster let this happen?

Pags argues that the Orioles will lose fans if they trade Bedard, and that it demonstrates a lack of commitment to the scouting and development departments. He’s right, but I think they have to bite the bullet. If I’m the Orioles, I’d rather at least have the potential to make the playoffs and have people angry at me than doom myself to last place with the continued erosion of support that comes with it.

What the Orioles should do to appease everyone is make a good trade. Make a trade that brings back quality major league talent as well as minor league talent. The Orioles should empower their scouting and development departments to identify and develop that minor league talent.

I believe that Bedard should bring equal, if not more, value than Johan Santana. Yes, Santana is better, but Bedard will be much, much cheaper over the next five years, providing his future team with the financial freedom to sign free agents or make additional trades.

How about Clay Buchholz, Jed Lowrie, Coco Crisp and another minor leaguer for Bedard? And perhaps the Orioles shouldn’t stop there. Trade Brian Roberts while he’s at top value (for Cubs SP Rich Hill and a prospect) and get a couple of low minor leaguers for Tejada from a team that doesn’t scout its own organization well.

I digress. For you Orioles fans who may be depressed, humor yourself by looking at http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SFG/2007.shtml and seeing how superior your team is to the Giants. “Now batting clean-up… Bengie Molina.”

Forgive me for the following confession: I don’t understand the love affair with Florida Marlins pitcher Dontrelle Willis. Honestly, I just don’t get it!

To be certain, I understand why people WERE in love with him a couple of years ago, but over the last two years his performance has declined drastically. He had his best season in 2005, when he won 22 games and posted a 2.63 ERA; but since the ‘05 season he has seen nearly every one of his pitching statistics trend in the wrong direction:

• Wins: from 22, to 12 (’06), to 10 (’07)
• ERA: 2.63/3.87/5.17
• WHIP: 1.13/1.42/1.60
• BA Against: .243/.274/.294
• Slugging %: .352/.396/.477
• BB/9 IP: 2.09/3.34/3.81

The only statistic that has remained relatively constant is his K/9 IP (6.47–6.45–6.40).

There were eighty-one pitchers in Major League Baseball who produced the same or higher PRC (Pitching Runs Created) in 2007 than Willis. His score of 62 was less than half that of Jake Peavy, CC Sabathia and Brandon Webb. He was tied with Zack Greinke and Jeremy Bonderman for 80th place.

And check out Willis’ 2007 splits – his second half was MUCH worse than his first half!!

My point? Many pundits have discussed the possibility that the Minnesota Twins will trade Johan Santana in return for a bevy of prospects. Many have also suggested that the ‘buyer’ might be better off to swing a deal for Willis who they proffer would cost less in terms of both prospects and annual salary. In my opinion, the proposition is ludicrous. I would have little or NO interest in Willis if I were in a major league front office, especially if I were in an American League front office (more on that later).

I have an alternate proposal for all of those ‘buyers’ who might be unable to swing a deal for the Twins ace: forget about Willis. Instead call the Baltimore Orioles and inquire into the availability of Erik Bedard.

Like Willis, Bedard is young (he’ll be 29 on Opening Day, Willis will be 26) and he is a southpaw. But that is where the similarities end and the place where the argument in favor of Bedard begins.

First, while Willis’ performance has tracked in the wrong direction over the last few years, Bedard’s performance is on the upswing. In fact, since 2005 he has improved in almost every statistical category in each and every year:

• Wins: from 6, to 15 (’06), to 13 (’07)
• ERA: 4.00/3.76/3.16
• WHIP: 1.38/1.35/1.09
• BA Against: .260/.258/.212
• Slugging %: .363/.370/.337
• BB/9 IP: 3.62/3.16/2.82
• K/9 IP: 7.94/7.84/10.93

NOTE: Bedard took a bit of a step sidewards in 2006 in his first season working under the tutelage of Leo Mazzone, but he was able to take a couple of steps forward this year in his second season under the new system. With Mazzone now dismissed, one has to wonder whether Bedard will continue to progress or whether he will be confused by another change in philosophies?

Second, any of you who have perused my website know that I am a snob. I wholeheartedly believe that the teams in the American League are much better in terms of talent than teams in the National League.

Thus, from my perspective, the fact that Bedard has put superior numbers on the board over the last two years while pitching in the AL (and specifically, in the AL East) strongly suggests that he is the preferable option if you are seeking to acquire a front-of-the-rotation starter.

Third, it appears Andy MacPhail is prepared to make some wholesale changes in Baltimore. He understands that the Orioles are far from competitive and that the minor league cupboard is bare. Although O’s fans will not want to trade Bedard, the former Twins and Cubs GM knows the organization will need to trade quality players in order to acquire the volume of young, talented and inexpensive prospects/young players they need to become competitive.

The Orioles are NOT going to win the AL East in 2008 or 2009. The contracts of Miguel Tejada and Erik Bedard expire at the end of ‘09 and both players have complained about the losing atmosphere in Charm City. Thus, it seems almost certain that neither is going to sign a contract to stay with the Orioles. Free agency is just a stone’s throw away, so it says here that the O’s would be better off trading Bedard while his value is sky high.

No one in Red Sox Nation enjoyed looking on as Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe and Orlando Cabrera walked away after the 2004 season, but in return the Red Sox received a bevy of draft picks they converted into talented prospects (including Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz) that promise to keep them competitive for most of the next decade.

MacPhail was brought on board to make changes. He has reportedly been given carte blanche to make the decisions that need to be made in order to turn the team into a contender. If he can turn Miguel Tejada and Erik Bedard (and, for that matter, Brian Roberts) into four or five significant prospects, I believe he should (would) make those trades and endure the fallout. He is in this thing for the long-term.

Given that, if I were in another major league front office and had to choose between the two young left-handers, I would choose Bedard in a heartbeat.

www.sox1fan.com

The Red Sox have reportedly offered Mike Lowell a third, guaranteed year as part of their most recent contract proposal.

Many pundits have stated their belief that Lowell would provide a hometown discount and stay in Boston if the Sox did so, but I have previously expressed my opinion that may not be the case. This summer, the third baseman told friends of mine that he would have agreed to a two-year extension back in spring training, but that Red Sox GM Theo Epstein eschewed his overtures – preferring to see how the season played out.

Well, the season played out to Lowell’s advantage and, as of this time, Lowell has yet to agree to the Red Sox proposal – even with the third year in hand.

Lowell’s agents are convinced (and probably rightfully so) that he will get a four-year offer in the open market. So, the question remains whether $40 million, the city, the team, his teammates and the ballpark are worth more than another $12 million to be in New York City playing in front of the worst fans on the planet. (To Yankees fans: please don’t get all offended, you are the ones who booed Derek Jeter a couple of years ago. You made the point that you are the worst fans in baseball, not me. I’m just pointing it out.)

Lowell has said he wants to remain in Boston. Is he a man who will put his money where his mouth is (like Curt Schilling) or is he all talk (like Pedro Martinez and Johnny Damon)? We are almost certain to find out in the next 100 hours.

So where do the Sox turn if Lowell’s signature isn’t on a contract by Monday at midnight? How about Baltimore?

The Red Sox made a play for Miguel Tejada two years ago, but the Orioles front office refused to deal him within the division (owner Peter Angelos eventually squashed ANY deal for Tejada). But Andy MacPhail, their new President of Baseball Operations, has no such hang-ups. He wants one or two major league players or major-league-ready prospects (or guys close to being major league ready) in return for Tejada. He has said: “I wouldn’t rule out four teams just because they’re in our division… that may be our best deal.”

Tejada has resisted a position change to third base while with the Orioles, but would almost certainly make the transition to the hot corner if it would help get him out of Baltimore. He has told anyone who will listen that he is sick of losing and wants out of Charm City. In Boston he would have a chance to win, and the opportunity to join friends David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez.

Could the Sox land Tejada for Coco Crisp and Craig Hansen? Mmmm, maybe. The O’s need an outfielder and help in the bullpen (with both Chris Ray and Danys Baez out for 2008). Although they do have Corey Patterson and would likely want a power hitting alternative at one of the corner outfield positions. The Sox are not going to deal either Jon Lester or Clay Buchholz to get Tejada; therefore, they would almost certainly have to trade either two or three players for him.

It is likely the Red Sox would have to include either Michael Bowden or Justin Masterson in the deal. And while no one wants to surrender either of those young men in ANY deal (and that includes this writer), they will have to give something to get something. And remember, if they lose Lowell they will receive two draft picks in return. So even if they trade three players to get Tejada, in terms of numbers it would be a ‘wash’.

The Sox will know if Lowell is coming back to Beantown by Monday at midnight. If his name is not on a contract by then don’t be surprised to hear that the phone lines between Boston and Baltimore are burning up on Tuesday.

AL East (in order of wins)

Red Sox (96)

Two World Series titles in four years. Dare I say the “D” word? It seems the Sox are poised to make another run at the World Series in 2008 with proven veteran sluggers Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz in the middle of the line-up. Ace Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka and all-universe closer Jon Papelbon form the foundation of a very reliable pitching staff. The emergence of young talents Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury in 2007 show promise for the future, and Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester appear to be the young arms rounding out the Sox starting rotation.

Questions still remain, even with the resigning of Curt Schilling, Julian Tavarez and Tim Wakefield. How will the starting rotation look like on opening day? Can these Sox afford to have so many young players playing such vital roles in hopes of another World Series run? How big is the market for the defensively speedy Coco Crisp?

Yankees (94)

The “Evil Empire” appears to be in state of turmoil with a power change in the front office and the always reliable Joe Torre out west wearing very familiar Dodger Blue. Joe Girardi is in at the helm and expectations seemingly are what they are every year: World Series or bust.

With Alex Rodriguez on the open market, are the Yankees poised to make a big move via free agency or trade? Questions still loom about the re-singing of Yankee greats Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada and Andy Pettitte. Johnny Damon’s name has been attached to a trade rumor with Chicago and there’s that huge hole at third. The upside is that they have some seriously good young pitching talent in Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes. But will Brian Cashman have to part with one of these arms in order to fill another spot on his roster?

Blue Jays (83)

J.P. Ricciardi has assembled some decent talent north of the border with a formidable offense in Frank Thomas, Alex Rios, Vernon Wells and Aaron Hill. They have ace in Roy Halladay. And A.J. Burnett has potential “ace stuff”, but can he stay healthy for a full season? Is B.J. Ryan MIA? I don’t see the Jays being major players in the free agent market, but don’t be surprised if they’re sellers before the trade deadline if they fall to the bottom of an incredibly difficult AL Beast. (Burnett, Thomas?)

Orioles (69)

Coming off a 69 win season, the birds of Baltimore need to make some decisions on the direction of their immediate future. Miguel Tejada has requested a trade and rescinded that request more times than Kobe Bryant. It may be that the Orioles will look to move the aging shortstop before he loses all possible trade value.

Erik Bedard has shown he has the stuff to be one of the finest pitchers in the AL, but the problem is: what good is he for a potentially bottom basement team like Baltimore? If they decide to field trade offers for the lefty, expect a king’s ransom in return. A bright spot for the O’s is RF Nick Markakis, who has an incredible upside at such a young age. I look for another rebuilding year and for the O’s to be sellers if the price is right for Tejada or Bedard.

D-Rays (66)

Is this the year the Rays finally make the push to get out of the AL East cellar? The Rays outfield is young and very talented with Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton and Delmon Young. The resurgence of first basemen Carlos Pena and Jonny Gomes bat at DH brings some consistent pop to the line-up. Scott Kazmir looks to be an ace in the making; he’s simply a strikeout machine with 239 SO in 206.2 innings.

This is the problem I see when it comes to the Ray’s: MONEY. I don’t think they will shell out the money to retain their stockpile of talent when it’s arbitration and contract extension time. They need to be able to keep this group together long enough to develop into a good team, but with yearly payrolls that are below what A-Rod is likely to get by himself, the Rays are doomed to fight the Orioles for the bottom of the AL East. It’s really a shame considering there are talks of shopping speedy LF Crawford before next season.

Look for the Rays to stand pat this year, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they trade away half of their young talent to yearly contenders for even younger cheaper solutions.

by Steve Caimano 

If you looked at the 2007 Baltimore Orioles coming out of spring training, if you squinted really hard and tilted your head just so, you might have been able to see a contender. They had three promising young pitchers being coached by an acknowledged genius. They had a keystone combo that ranked among the best in the game. They had a young stud in right field, a solid catcher and plenty of candidates to fill a left-field/first base/designated hitter rotation. If everything broke right, it wasn’t impossible to convince yourself they were capable of an 87-90 win campaign.

Unfortunately, Orioles fans went from “squinting to picture a contender” to “hands over their eyes in horror” all too fast. The O’s limped out of the gate and struggled to maintain touch with .500 for the first two months of the season. Injuries mounted early as Adam Loewen and Jaret Wright left the rotation having started a total of 9 games. Ramon Hernandez started the season hurt and didn’t come back until late April. On May 31st Baltimore’s record was 27-27 and that would be the last day they saw the .500 mark, starting June on a 2-13 streak that resulted in the firing of manager Sam Perlozzo.

Dave Trembley was named the interim manager and the Orioles hired Andy MacPhail as President of Baseball Operations. It appeared that the team was declaring yet another new direction in what has become a decade long rebuilding project. Trembley started out fairly well. He stressed professionalism and fundamentals and the team seemed to respond to him.

At the end of July they had struggled back to 50-55 and were 58-65 on the morning of August 22nd. That day would feature an announcement that Trembley had been signed to a one year contract to manage the team and a truly historic doubleheader at Camden Yards. The Rangers managed to hang a 30 spot on the Orioles in the first game and then came back to win 9-7 in the nightcap on a late field goal. It would mark the beginning of the end for the 2007 team.

From August 22nd to the end of the year the team compiled a record of 11-26. This continued a disturbing trend of late season collapses by the Orioles although they did manage to hang on to fourth place in the East. The last few weeks of the season saw record low “crowds” showing up at Camden Yards with the few fans in attendance wondering what rabbits Mr. MacPhail was prepared to pull from a hat to put a more competitive team on the field in 2008. What’s left of the Orioles’ fan base is tired of having to strain their eyes and credulity to imagine a winning season.

WHAT WENT RIGHT

Three things. Erik Bedard, Brain Roberts, Nick Markakis.

Bedard became the first of the Orioles young pitching prospects to establish himself in the majors and looked like a potential star. He went 13-5 with a 3.16 ERA in 28 starts before injury and caution ended his season. He was a legitimate Cy Young candidate when he got hurt, leading the league in strikeouts at the time with 221 in 182 innings. If he had played on a better team, he certainly would have threatened twenty wins when you factor in his six no-decisions in games where he pitched at least six innings while allowing two runs or less. Baltimore would appear to have the number one spot in their rotation taken care of for the foreseeable future.

Markakis, the other young Oriole, turns 24 this off-season and shows signs of future stardom. In only his second full season he compiled a .295/.358/.478 (AVG/OBP/SLG) line with 22 HR and 110 RBI. He had a Value over Replacement Player (VORP) of 34.5 which ranked him fourth offensively in the American League behind Ordonez, Vlad and Alex , and he’s a well above average fielder.

Roberts solidified his comeback from the gruesome arm injury he suffered late in the 2005 season putting up a .290/.377/.432 line with 12 HR and 48 SB. His VORP of 47.6 led the Orioles’ hitters (Bedard led the team at 55.1) and was only three tenths of a point behind league leader Placido Polanco at second base. The only down note is that Roberts turns 30 shortly after the end of the season which means the Orioles have wasted his best seasons while they failed to acquire enough pieces to put together a contending team.

WHAT WENT WRONG

“Everything else” would probably be a bit harsh, but not by much. Daniel Cabrera failed to take the next step, again, and posted a 9-17 record with a truly awful 5.36 ERA. His frequent emotional meltdowns were probably more troubling to Orioles management than his putrid statistics. It will be interesting to see what the club does with Cabrera since he represents a classic baseball conundrum. He has great stuff, and his problems seem correctable, so he’s the kind of player teams hate to give up on out of concern he’ll show up later in another uniform as a 15 game winner.

The much ballyhooed bullpen restructuring didn’t work out so well either. After watching the 2006 bullpen blow far too many games, the team signed three free agent middle relievers to expensive contracts. The trio of Jamie Walker, Danny Baez and Chad Bradford cost the team a total of $10 million this year and it would be difficult to judge the decision anything but a failure. The team didn’t improve its standing or its record. While Walker and Bradford posted respectable numbers, one would be hard pressed to say they justified their expense. Baez threw 50.3 innings of sub-replacement level relief (6.26 ERA, 1.57 WHIP) and was a disaster.

Elsewhere on the roster, Corey Patterson failed to live up to expectations for about the fourth year in a row although he did put up numbers that approximate what you would expect from him (269/304/386, 37SB). The four-headed monster of Huff, Gibbons, Millar and Payton rotated uneasily among the first base, left field and designated hitter slots, putting up performances that ranged from passable (Huff 279/335/440, 15HR, 15.2 VORP and Millar 253/363/415, 16HR, 13.0 VORP) to horrendous (Payton 255/290/362, 6HR, -10.8 VORP and Gibbons 230/272/348, 6HR, -11.8 VORP). Yes, the Orioles gave nearly 700 at bats and $9.5 million to two players who were far below replacement level.

Finally, there is Miguel Tejada. He missed a month of the season with a broken wrist, breaking his streak of 1,152 consecutive games played. His numbers weren’t bad (298/356/446, 18HR, 31.5 VORP, 5th among AL shortstops) but they marked a clear downturn from his last three years. The problem isn’t just that Tejada won’t be the force in the middle of the Orioles line-up he once was, but rather the hit that’s been delivered to his trade value. Any reasonable plan to rebuild the Orioles starts with trading Tejada and he simply isn’t going to bring the same package of players he might have brought, say, last year.

PROSPECTS FOR 2008

Not good. In fact, they’ll be lucky to post another 70 win season without a radical makeover. Unfortunately, given their contract situation, it’s unlikely that the makeover can be accomplished in one off-season. Leaving aside the players they still control (Bedard, Markakis, Loewen and Penn), they owe their returning players $69 million next year. That would be okay if they wanted those players to come back, but I don’t think that’s the case. Here’s what that $69 million buys the Orioles:

C: Hernandez ($7.5M)

1b: Millar ($2.75M)

2b: Roberts ($6.3M)

SS: Tejada ($13M)

3B: Mora ($8M)

OF: Payton ($5M) and Markakis

DH: Huff ($8M)

SP: Bedard, Loewen (maybe), Penn (bigger maybe)

RP: Bradford ($3.5M), Walker ($4.5M), Baez ($4.5M)

Bench: Gibbons ($5.7M)

Needless to say, there are a lot of holes to fill and a lot of dead money on the roster. Even worse, with the exception of Millar and Payton, all of the above players are guaranteed at least the same salary in 2009. With a minor league system not exactly brimming with top prospects, the immediate future looks bleak for the Orioles.

CHANGES THEY SHOULD MAKE

First and foremost the Orioles have to look in the mirror and acknowledge a simple fact. They are NOT close to being in contention. They have spent the last decade under the delusion that they were only a few players from challenging the Red Sox and Yankees. The result has been any number of poorly considered partial rebuilding plans.

The 2006 bullpen spending spree is a perfect example of this type of bad decision making. Middle relievers are the least predictable group of players in baseball. Quick, name me five middle relievers who have managed to be consistently excellent for five years or more. Not easy is it? Why? Because their value varies greatly from season to season. Middle relievers are baseball’s penny stocks. If you find a good one its value will take off, but you have to deal with three bankruptcies for every value you find. So buying middle relievers on the open market is almost always a bad idea, BUT It’s an even worse idea for a team that has so many needs.

A team coming off an 87-win season that just missed the playoffs because their bullpen couldn’t hold leads MIGHT be able to justify spending $10 million on middle relievers. It’s the kind of “polishing” move an otherwise good team makes to try and put them over the top. The Orioles simply are not that kind of team. They’re a bad team.

They were a bad team last year (70-92) and in 2005 (74-88) and on and on. They haven’t finished above .500 since 1997 for God’s sake. Don’t you think, before you start addressing how you’re going to protect the limited number of leads you take into the seventh inning you ought to figure out how to increase the number of leads you actually have to protect?

No, the problem the Orioles should have addressed was the abysmal production from the “power” spots in their line-up. First Base, Right Field, Third Base, Designated Hitter. They simply aren’t going to get any better until they address their problems at these key offensive positions. As long as you continue to get a total of 20 runs over replacement value out of the five players you have manning these positions you’re going to be a bad baseball team.

What the Orioles need to do is look south about 40 miles at what the Nationals are doing and do the same thing. They need to admit to themselves that they are a bad baseball team. They need to trade as many of their assets as they can for warm bodies to get them through the next few years. Keep Markakis and Bedard, everybody else is for sale. Then they need to focus on the draft and player development and hope that their two stars will still want to sign with the team when they become free agents.

Yes, it’s going to be painful to come to Camden Yards for a while, but at least there will be some kind of plan.

Storyline: Josh Beckett picked up his eighteenth win of the season giving the Sox another series win in Baltimore. Beckett continued to show why he is considered one of the best pitchers in baseball by going seven innings and allowing just two runs. The Sox offense was not overpowering but it got the job done and had a hit from everyone in the lineup with the exception of Alex Cora. Hideki Okajima bounced back from recent struggles to pitch a scoreless eighth. The key for Okajima is keeping the ball down. It was what made him so successful earlier in the year. Yesterday, he kept the ball down and it produced a perfect inning for him.

Stars: Although Beckett did give up two home runs, they were both solo shots. Anytime a pitcher can keep runners off the bases like Beckett did he will be able to survive the occasional home run. Even in his prime Curt Schilling would always be among the league leaders in home runs allowed but they rarely hurt him because they were mostly solo shots. In his seven innings of work Beckett did not walk one batter and that was the key to his outing. Pedroia had a three-hit game and is putting up one of the highest rookie batting averages ever. Mike Lowell snapped out of a recent funk with a two run single in the third.

Strategy: The Sox have three with Tampa Bay before their last series with New York. It will be crucial to take care of Tampa Bay because dropping games in the standings heading into the New York series will only give the Yankees more hope that the division is still a possibility. The Yankees swept Boston last time and they would love to be in a situation where they can sweep them again closing the gap to only two or three games back with twelve to play. Not an insurmountable lead by any stretch of the imagination. The best way for the Sox to take pressure off themselves is to take two of three from Tampa Bay.

Tim Wakefield (RHP)  Pitching in his first appearance after nursing a sore back, Wakefield will face the struggling Orioles in Baltimore. He’ll be opposed by Garrett Olsen (LHP), one of the few young prospects the O’s are taking a look at during the final months of the 2007 season. Wakefield has had a very good year for the Sox and, along with Josh Beckett, has been a model of consistency.

Baltimore will create problems for the Red Sox tonight as some of the O’s experienced base stealers should have a negative effect on the Sox battery. Brian Roberts, Cory Patterson, Freddie Bynum, and Tyke Redman are top speed guys at the MLB level, capable of creating havoc for many opposing pitchers. Olsen.Garrett.09607.pdf

The first and second innings will determine the overall pace and style of the game, and, of course, the wind will affect the knuckle ball as well. Although it will be difficult for the Orioles to hold down the Sox, even with the likes of Drew and Youkilis not showing production in the middle of the lineup and Manny still  sidelined with a back injury, the O’s will be a difficult opponent for the Red Sox tonight. And with Andy MacPhail watching from his box, many Baltimore player personnel have their jobs at stake.

the Cutting Edge: (Baltimore)

Clay Buchholz (RHP):  This will be Buchholz’s second start with the Red Sox, and he will most likely be up with the club for the remainder of the season as rosters expand to 40 men before this game. In his first start with the Red Sox, Buchholz picked up the win, going 6 innings and striking out 5 while walking 3. He showed a four-seam fastball that sat 92-93 and  threw a two-seamer that was around 90-91 with more movement. Of his offspeed pitches, his changeup was the best, being a plus pitch that he can consistently go to in order to finish off hitters down in the zone. His curveball showed good rotation and depth, but he had trouble locating it in the strike zone. Apparently suffering from a case of nerves, he rushed his mechanics at times. He also features a slider that he would use to his gloveside vs. RHH, which showed average bite but good depth. Buchholz likes to start hitters with his fastball and curveball, and then finish them off with his changeup, but in his last start, he also repeatedly threw multiple changeups to batters, as he has no problem trusting his offspeed stuff. Look for Buchholz to be somewhat sharper than in his first start, but he is still a rookie who is prone to bouts of inconsistency.

Garrett Olson (LHP): Olson is a 23-year old rookie who is making his 6^thstart in the big leagues, and has not seen much success in his recent outings. He has given up 15 runs in his last 3 starts, all of which have resulted in Orioles losses. Olson features a fastball that sits 89-90, a curveball that he will throw at different angles and speeds, and a developing changeup. His curveball is currently his best offering and is extremely tough against LHH, evidenced by the fact that he has struck out 8 out of the 17 lefties he has faced. If he is to pitch in the majors, he will need to develop his changeup to a suitable level, as his curveball is not going to be enough to get out RHH consistently; they can lay off it out of the zone and wait for his average fastball. Olson could also have trouble with the Red Sox as he has walked 21 in 23 1/3 innings. Patience on their part could give him trouble and force him out of the game early, something the Orioles don’t want to deal with after  their starter lasted only 3 innings in their previous game. If they can get 5 innings out of Olson, that would be a good start for them, as they cannot afford to have their bullpen taxed for the second straight game. Olsen is learning at the major league level, a trend some MLB teams are creating internally, but performance the fans aren’t willing to pay for.

The Cutting Edge: (Boston)

Storyline: Mike Timlin celebrated his 1,000th major league appearance in style by giving up four runs in the sixth. Sox pitchers just gave up too many runs and eventually Boston ran out of outs in its comeback bid. Right-hander Julian Tavarez got the start when Tim Wakefield was scratched before the game with a lower back problem. Tavarez helped his team by taking the start but he was not very effective on the mound. The second time through the Baltimore order is when things fell apart for him. He left too many balls out over the middle of the plate and as a result he was hit hard. His lack of command led to four Baltimore runs in the fourth inning. Tavarez’s inability to go deep in the game caused the Sox to use five pitchers out of the pen, not the way they wanted to start the series.

Stars: Offensively the Boston bats finally showed some life (unfortunately it’s three days too late). Boston had fifteen hits, led by Dustin Pedroia who had four hits in the game. Erik Hinske was the major run producer with his four RBIs. Big Papi continued his power surge with a solo homer in the first and just missed a potential game-winning three run shot in the eighth. The fact of the matter is that it was going to take ten runs to win the game and Boston’s valiant effort came up short.

Strategy: While it looked as though the Sox would escape the season without a visit from the injury bug, it has unfortunately showed up at the worst possible time. Tim Wakefield’s injury was coupled by J.D. Drew leaving the game after fouling a ball off his foot. For most of the game the Sox outfield was from left to right Hinske, Crisp and Kielty. That’s not the outfield of a championship team. In the fourth Hinske took a step in on a line drive that was over his head. A ball he should have caught got down for a hit and the next batter hit a home run. In a one-run game, mistakes like that are magnified. Especially when it is a play Manny Ramirez consistently makes. The Red Sox did not pitch well enough to win tonight. To have good pitching but no offense or vice-versa will not cut it in September.

This was a wild game with late inning heroics for both teams. With the Orioles leading 3-0 in the bottom of the 9th - sparkplug Shelly Duncan smashed a game tying 3 run home run off Jaime Walker. Then in the top of the 10th - Aubrey Huff clubbed a 2 run home run off Mariano Rivera (who gave up 3 total in the 9th). This season the Orioles haven’t lost a series to the Yankees, and the two will match up twice more before the end of the season.

Erik Bedard was just plain filthy today - he went 7 shutout innings while fanning 8. He would have won his 9th straight decision if not for the Orioles weak and inconsistent bullpen blew the save. The Yankees will face Bedard (along with Cabrera & Guthrie) twice more this season. While the Yankees have faced some weak competition in the recent past, they will need to prove they can beat top level starters if they want to make the playoffs.
Philip Hughes pitched decent, as he was able to deliver 5 innings of work, while giving up 6 hits and 2 earned runs ( 3 runs total) Hughes this year has been a bit inconsistent (granted he has had only 5 starts) but he will need to pitch deeper into the game and more to the corners of the plate so that he can piece together quality starts.
The obvious questions regarding today’s game was - “What’s the deal with Mariano Rivera?” Having had two bad outings in a row, Mariano has had a down year. He holds a record of 3-4 and an ERA of 3.46. This is astonishing because he has had a sub 2.00 ERA every year since 2003. His problem is the fact that too many pitches are finding the fat part of the plate. He needs to regain the command of his cutter and then he will start to return to form.

This was a difficult loss for the Yankees, but maybe they can find hope in Duncan’s 3 run bomb. They were held scoreless for 17 straight innings against the Orioles staff. This is a huge problem considering they will face them twice more - and they will face a tough schedule in the following weeks. Detroit has the worst record in the MLB since the all - star break, but has played well within the past few days.

Hughes: Philip Hughes carries a 2-1 record along with a 4.64 ERA into the series finale. In 4 starts this year, he has accumulated 22 strikeouts with 7 walks. In his 2nd start off of the DL vs. CLE he was dominant in 6 innings – giving up only 4 hits one earned run. Much like Bedard, Hughes is a strikeout pitcher – who will go to his curveball when he is looking for a punch-out. His curve is his best outpitch but he needs his fastball strikes to set it up. It has good break and depth from a high 3/4 arm angle with 12-6 rotation. He does not have a problem throwing it in consecutive pitches. Hughes will try to build off of his last good outing trying to build some consistency and confidence as the Yankee continue to climb in the standings.

Bedard: Erik Bedard brings a 12 – 4 record with 3.11 ERA into this star studded match up. The Canadian lefty has 199 K’s in 162 IP and will break Mike Mussina’s single season record (218 K”S) by the end of the month. He uses five pitches, (FB, SL, CV, Ch, & cut FB) and can be overpowering. Bedard has one of the best cut fastballs in the majors (as a starter). Bedard is able to make adjustments through tough innings, unlike his efforts earlier in the season Bedard might be baseball’s best pitcher in the past 2 months – he has won 8 consecutive decisions, including beating the Red Sox twice – and out pitched Josh Beckett to gain one of those wins @ Fenway Park. The last time he faced the Yankees, Bedard went 7 innings giving up only 2 hits and fanning 8.

The Orioles haven’t lost a series to the Yankees all year – as they will send their ace against them in this series finale. While Bedard may seem like a lock to win this game, the Orioles have never seen Hughes before, and the NYY cannot be any hotter. Look for a low scoring game with a lot of strikeouts. Scoring chances will be few.

This game was a complete disaster in many ways for the Bronx Bombers. Daniel Cabrera had one of his best outings of the year, going a scoreless 6.2 innings while allowing only 2 hits and striking out 5. This gem propelled Cabrera to his 9th victory and lowered his ERA to 4.93. On the other side, Jeff Karstens was miserable. He’s just not a major league starter at this point in his career. He went only 3 innings, giving up 4 walks and 5 earned runs. This game evens the series at 1-1, and the Yankees will try to win a series against the Orioles for the first time this season in the next contest.

Daniel Cabrera showed how truly dominant he can be tonight. It is scary to think what he could be if he can ever find his command. He walked 6 men while throwing 111 pitches and allowed only 2 hits. Cabrera is a prime example of a hard thrower who may be able to get away with mistakes because of his velocity and movement.

Jeff Karstens didn’t help himself out very much tonight. His poor control led to walks and getting behind in the count causing a bases loaded jam when he faced Aubrey Huff in the 4th inning. He then grooved a middle-in fastball to Huff who put the O’s up 5-0 in the 3rd, and the Orioles never looked back. While there was speculation of Ian Kennedy being called up to start this game, it never happened.

This loss coupled with a Red Sox walk off victory moves them back 5 games back in the AL east. In addition to that, the Tigers win moves them a full game ahead of the Yankees in the wild card. The Yanks will be facing the Orioles ace tomorrow in Erik Bedard, as they will lean on Philip Hughes to help them win the series 2-1. The good news for the Yanks, the hitters finally got a rest.

Daniel Cabrera: Coming into the mid game of this series, he is 8-12 with a 5.14 ERA. It has been a bit puzzling to why this giant with an absolute power arm can have such bad numbers. He has a sinking FB in the mid 90’s and a hard breaking 12-6 curve - along with his big 6′7” athletic frame. However, he gets behind too many hitters, and every batter in the NYY lineup (especially lately) can hit a fastball when they know its coming. This year, Cabrera leads the AL in walks with 80, and is 2nd in losses with 12. In addition to that, he is a very poor defender and doesn’t hold runner on very well. The Yankees are very familiar with Cabrera, as they have already beaten him twice. In his last outing, he pitched 6.1 innings giving up 4 earned runs. If Cabrera cannot get strike one & ahead of Yankee hitters he will get roughed up again - luckily for him he is facing Jeff Karstens.

Jeff Karstens: Karstens was forced into this slot because of Roger Clemens’ 5 game suspension and Chien- Ming Wang being moved up on Monday. Karstens will be making his 3rd start of the year, with his previous two starts being disasters. In total, he has 2 losses and an ERA of 10.13. Why is Karstens starting? The NYY are red hot with the best offense in MLB since the all star break and they go to a projected long relief guy (on a championship club). It began with Darrell Rasner, Chase Wright, Tyler Clippard, and Matt Desalvo. One can only imagine how far ahead the Yankees would be if they’d used insurance pitchers instead of undeveloped minor leaguers. While we have seen Philip Hughes start, is it too early to bring up Ian Kennedy?

In the middle game of this series, the NYY will rely on their offense to carry them. Karstens has pitched 10.2 innings all year and the most he has pitched in any stint is 4.1 innings. The Yanks realize he’s effective first time through the order, so they might have to dip into the pen a bit early tonight. They have had a good history facing Cabrera - as they will one again look to mix he right amount of patience and aggression offensively.

The Yankees stay on their red hot pace with a one run victory tonight over the Orioles. The Yankee offense continued to get production from all parts of their lineup tonight with a 2 run blast from Wilson Betemit. The Yankees also got a home run from Bobby Abreu, and RBI’s from Jorge Posada, Melky Cabrera, and the winning run from Derek Jeter. Chien - Ming Wang again struggled with the command of his sinker - going 6+ innings and giving up 5 earned runs on 8 hits. Jeremy Guthire got roughed up was only able to last 4.2 innings giving up 9 hits and 6 earned runs. Mariano Rivera blew the save ending his streak of 19 in a row and his first since April 20th. However, the Captain was able to come through in the bottom of the 9th with an infield hit off of Chad Bradford.

With Mike Myers being demoted, the Yankees will have to lean on Ron Villone as their best lefty option out of the bull pen. This is certainly not their strong suit – but it is overshadowed by the up and coming Joba Chamberlain who blew away the O’s in the 8th. The Yankees will only let Chamberlain start an inning - probably because he was drafted & brought up as a starter. But how long will this policy stand? If they are in a close game against a contender, are they not going to use him? This is a bit puzzling - but if Chamberlain is going to be a factor down the stretch as a set up man, he needs to be more comfortable coming into the middle of an inning.

The Red Sox beat Tampa Bay tonight so the NYY remain 4 games back in the AL east. Wang has to pitch better than this down the stretch, considering his next starts will be against the surging Tigers and Angels. He needs to regain the location sinker within the strike zone and avoid the middle of the plate. The NYY offense has been more lethal with the addition of Jason Giambi off the bench. With A-Rod from the right and Giambi from the left, expect the Yankees to continue production from an entirely balanced and diverse lineup.

Chien Ming Wang: Wang brings a 13 -6 record along with a 3.94 ERA into the series opener vs. Baltimore. He is coming off his worst start of year and the shortest of his career vs. Toronto. In total he went 2.2 innings allowing 9 hits and 8 earned runs. This season he is 2-0 vs. the Orioles - in his last start vs. Baltimore he picked up a win going 6 innings while allowing 3 earned runs. Wang needs to establish command of his sinker in the bottom half of the zone. He got hurt against the Blue Jays because all of his pitches were running back over the middle of the plate and were belt high. He is familiar with the Orioles and familiar with a competitive plan against them.

Jeremy Guthrie:Guthrie enters Monday with a 7-4 record and a 3.22 ERA. He has evolved into the Orioles’ #2 starter behind Erik Bedard. Guthrie is2-0 vs. NYY and the last time he faced the Bronx Bombers he pitched very well, going 6 innings and only yielding 2 earned runs as he picked up a victory. Guthrie is coming off a poor start vs. Seattle, he went only 4 innings and gave up 8 hits, 5 earned runs. Overall in 2007, his approach has been consistent especially his pace of play and tempo. More importantly his confidence and commitment level have improved 100%. He has matured as a pitcher developing good mound presence in the process. He has gained an incredible amount of confidence this season – but look for him to be put to the test against the best lineup in the MLB.

The Yankees enter this 3 game series in dead even tie with Seattle for the AL Wild Card lead. The Yankees are in prime shape to make a move – every part of their team in clicking. It is also important to note that their bullpen is well rested because of the starters going deep into games. It should be noted that Joba Chamberlain will also be available vs. the Orioles. The Yankee organization have a strict plan for not pitching Chamberlain too much.

The Yankees strength – its offense, will be tested against the Orioles strength – its young pitching. Dave Trembley has done a great job this season as the “interim” tag has been lifted from his position. He has emphasized aggressive play and fundamentals. The Yanks will face Guthrie, Cabrera, Bedard – while the O’s will have to deal with Wang, Hughes, and Karstens or Kennedy (filling in because of Clemens suspension).

In this series look for the Yankees to start fast, then hang on.

Storyline:

Kevin Millar got the best of his former mates with a walk off homer in the bottom of the tenth inning.  The game should have never gotten to that point for the Red Sox.  So much for shortening the game with the addition of Eric Gagne to the Red Sox bullpen.  It’s official: Eric Gagne is killing the Red Sox.  He threw Miguel Tejada six fastballs in a row before he sent fastball number seven over the right-center field wall with one out in the eighth inning to tie the game at three.  That’s just a bad game plan for a dead fastball hitter.  Clearly he has lost confidence in his change up that he has relied so heavily on throughout his career.  The Sox were sloppy in the field and on the bases.  Lugo booted a ground ball in the second that led to an unearned run.  Had Lugo made the play the Sox would have won this game.  In the fourth inning Manny Ramirez tried to move from second base to third base on a pitch in the dirt.  The catcher knocked the ball down and picked it up at his feet to throw out Manny at third.  A few pitches later J.D. Drew lined a pitch up the middle that would have scored Manny.  Chances that can’t be given away during a pennant race.  In the sixth inning the Sox had runners at first and third with no outs.  Hinske grounded the ball back to Trachsel at the mound.  Trachsel somehow had time to look the runner back at third then start the double play, a mental error as the runner is supposed to run home in that situation.   Again this was a situation that directly affected the end result of the game.

Stars:

Millar was the hero for the O’s.  He had three hits including the walk off homer.  The unsung hero has to be Melvin Mora.  He robbed Julio Lugo of extra bases with a diving catch in the top of the second.  The play saved two runs from scoring and ultimately saved the game for Baltimore.  Schilling had a good start for the Sox.  He went six innings and gave up no earned runs.  However, his stuff was not overpowering and he gave up more contact than usual.  For only the fourth time in his career he did not record a strikeout.

Strategy:

The Sox bullpen was awful in Baltimore.  They gave up ten runs in five innings.  Today Francona got too cute with his pitchers in the pen.  After Okajima forced Nick Markakis to ground out to short and barely beat out a double play, Francona brought in the right handed Gagne to face right handed hitting Tejada.  Francona treated Okajima like a lefty specialist which is something he has not done all year.  Okajima has proven that he is just as tough on righties as his is lefties and should have been left in the game.  This forced Francona to send Delcarmen to the mound in the ninth inning of a tie game.  To his credit Delcarmen struck out the side to send the game to extras.  That doesn’t change the fact that the Sox had their fourth best bullpen pitcher on the mound in the ninth inning of a tie game.  With runners on second and third with one out in the bottom of the tenth the Sox elected not to put Millar on first.  In his career against Kyle Snyder Millar was 3-4 with two doubles and a home run.  Not only would the Sox avoid the bad match-up by putting Millar on first but it would also set up the double play to end the inning.  Predictably Millar hammered a hanging curve ball to end the game. What were they thinking?

The Red Sox need an attitude adjustment.  With the leadoff man on to start the ninth inning Lugo was called on to bunt the runner over.  He halfheartedly flailed at two balls that were high and out of the strike zone.  That is a fundamental play that is executed in little league parks all over the country.  And it is also written in many major league scouting reports that Lugo is a terrible fundamental bunter. (Theo and Tito obviously don’t see eye to eye on this one). Lugo hurt the Red Sox with both his glove and his bat.  The runner on first in that situation brings up an entire different problem.  After getting hit by a pitch to lead off the ninth Hinske remained at first base to run.  Coco Crisp was on the bench and was the obvious choice to pitch run in this situation.  However Crisp was not available because he is suffering from flu-like symptoms.  Flu-like symptoms?  Would Bill Russell sit out a game with his team in a division race because of flu-like symptoms?  Would Yaz?  Would Larry Bird?  Would Tom Brady? Would Jason Varitek?  OF COURSE NOT!  The comfortable lead is gone.  It has disappeared.  The Sox left town for this nine game road trip with an eight game lead.  They come home with their lead down to four.  The roles have officially reversed from earlier this year.  The Yankees are lighting the world on fire while the Sox play mediocre baseball.  That won’t be good enough to win the AL East.

Get out the brooms - the NYY just swept an AL leading Cleveland Indians and made it look easy. Andy Pettitte was outstanding as he worked ahead of hitters and got a lot of groundball outs, as he improved his record to 9-7. Pettitte was able to use his cutter and curve to both sides of the plate with plus command. On the other side, Jake Westbrook didn’t pitch badly at all. He threw a lot of pitches hit his spots well, however just a few mistakes led to 4 earned runs as he dropped to 3-7. It’s never easy when you have to pitch perfectly in order to win. The 8th inning saw Jose Vizcaino unable to leave inherited runners stranded, so in typical Joe Torre fashion, he went to Mariano Rivera for a 4 outs. He worked out of the 8th, but in the 9th he struggled with his command and saw the tying run reach 2nd. He then struck out 2 and got Blake to fly out to RF stranding two base runners and converted his 19th save of the season.

Jason Giambi hit his 2nd home run in as many days off Jake Westbrook. Giambi is looking to prove himself and gain a spot in the lineup. He has to be working hard in the cage and getting back in shape because the last two home runs he’s hit have been two of the hardest hit balls from any NYY hitter on the team.
Andy Pettitte and team defense showed experience, brilliance and championship baseball instincts in the bottom of the 7th. With the bases loaded and nobody out – Pettitte picked off Jhonny Peralta and escaped the inning with only allowing one run. This kind of thinking and execution resembles that of a WS champion.

Pointers:
What was Melky Cabrera doing sacrafice bunting back to the pitcher in the 5th inning in a 2-0 ball game and Jose Molina on secondbase, one of the slowest guys in the major leagues. The correct play is to bunt the ball to the firstbaseman, thirdbaseman or foul. This mistake was hidden by his HR in the 7th which extended his hitting streak to 17 games.
While Robinson Cano is absolutely tearing it up at the plate - it appears he takes a vacation mentally at times. He forgot how many outs there were on the base paths and has continually had trouble turning the double play. In the bottom of the 4th he mishandled a double play feed from ARod, then on the next batter turned an almost identical feed from ARod smoothly and threw a missile to Andy Phillips at first base. While these two examples may be overcritical and just simple mistakes - Cano’s defense & base running need to improve. The Yankees have the best coaching in the game, don’t expect the baserunning blunders to happen again any time soon.

This series exposed of all of the Indian’s weaknesses. They have decent starting pitching with 2 legit studs (Sabbathia & Carmona) but the Yankees were given too many extra outs because of poor Indian defense, especially in the INF. In addition to that, we saw the Cleveland hitters struggle mightily on offense, every NYY starter pitched well and deep into the game. More importantly, it looked as if the Indians didn’t want to play - not a great sign when your team is leading the AL central. If someone were watching Cleveland for the first time they would never believe they were 13 games over .500 and leading the AL central
The Yankees went a very solid 5-1 on this 6 game road trip as they are currently 66-51 and are tied with Seattle for the Wild Card and sit 4 games behind Boston in the AL East. The Yankee train rolls on to a 3 game series in New York vs. Baltimore, where they will be facing young gun Jeremy Guthrie in the opener.

Storyline:

What looked like an easy win got more interesting than it needed to for the Sox in Baltimore.  Beckett was cruising until giving up two two-out hits in the ninth.  Francona would eventually have to go to Papelbon with the tying run on deck.  Papelbon got Melvin Mora to pop up to second and the Sox got a much needed win.  Beckett looked like a pitcher deserving of the Cy Young award on Saturday.  He blew hitters away with his fastball and kept them off balance with his disgusting curve.  Although ballpark guns are juiced, it’s encouraging to see Beckett hitting 97 mph in the ninth inning. It shows his consistency and arm strength is fine when it counts. While Beckett was upset about being one strike away from a complete game shutout, he can take solace in the fact that he became the first pitcher in baseball to reach fifteen wins.

Stars:

The Sox got a rare big day at the plate from J.D. Drew.  Drew had three hits and two RBIs to lead the way for Boston offensively.  Dustin Pedroia stayed hot for the Sox.  He picked up two more hits to raise his season average to .330.  Pedroia looks to have solved the leadoff hitter problem the Sox had earlier in the year.  While he doesn’t have the ideal speed for a leadoff hitter, he is a much more reliable option than Lugo at this critical point in the season.  Garrett Olson, one of the Orioles’ best pitchers in the minors, struggled in his start.  He learned the hard way that walking batters in the major leagues is an easy way to get the loss. His six walks today proves he is not yet ready for the majors and is undeveloped talent, something the O’s fans are used to seeing these days.

Strategy:

Francona mismanaged the ninth inning.  He sent Beckett out to complete the game with a 6-0 lead.  Beckett looked great all day and deserved the chance to try and finish the game.  After Brian Roberts led off the inning with a double to center, it may have been time to go and get him.  However, Tito left him out there until he gave up two more hits and rang his pitch count up to one hundred and fifteen pitches. Beckett is too important of an asset to waist trying to go after a complete game with a six run lead.  Complete games don’t win World Series and he should know that.

The Sox bats did more than enough to get the win in a very pro-Boston Camden Yards’ crowd.  The best fans in baseball were out in full force to support the road team.  No matter what happens in the next seven weeks it will no doubt be a wild ride for anyone who supports the Boston Red Sox.

Storyline:

What turned into a pitching duel between Boston’s Daisuke Matsuzaka and Baltimore’s Erik Bedard., became a slugfest in a crazy ninth inning. Eric Gagne had a terrible outing for the Sox earning the loss. He gave up four earned runs while recording only one out in the eighth inning. Gagne has now given up six runs and nine hits in his three and a third inning Red Sox career. Maybe it’s a little different coming into games for a first place team looking to win the division than it was for the last place Rangers.

Stars:

Bedard baffled the Sox again and out pitched Matsuzaka just like he out pitched Josh Becket a few weeks ago at Fenway. He has dominated the Sox this season. Nick Markakis and Aubrey Huff both had big a game at the plate recording two RBIs each. Matsuzaka’s bullpen let him down after pitching seven strong innings. He recorded seven strikeouts which gave him the Red Sox rookie record with one hundred and fifty-nine on the season. J.D. Drew badly misplayed a ball in right which allowed two runs to score. With a three run lead and two runners on he can not afford to let a line drive hit right in front of him get behind him like it did, unless of course his OBP can stop it.

Strategy:

Blown saves are going to happen. This marked only the fifth time the Boston bullpen blew a save, which leads the major leagues. It seems like Francona rode Gagne a little too long. With a four run lead and the Okajima and Pabelbon in the bullpen there was no need to leave Gagne in to give up four runs. Hey, he didn’t have it tonight. That is something the manager needs to pick up on before the four run lead evaporates. Tito needs to be sharper and more prepared. The Sox dropped a game to New York and their five game lead feels awful tight. They send Beckett to the mound tomorrow and look to even the series with the Orioles

Storyline:

The Sox got another solid start from Tim Wakefield and a number of big hits from role players to defeat the Orioles Thursday afternoon by a score of 7-4.  Eric Gagne made his Red Sox debut and Okajima had another perfect inning of relief.  Coco crisp stole two bases and continued to demonstrate that this Sox team has more speed than in years past and will put pressure on teams with their base running in certain situations.

Wakefield quietly put himself into a tie for most wins in the American League after Thursday’s victory.  Wake has been hot lately getting the win in six of his last seven starts.  As always his control was the most important factor in his success.  He was all over the strike zone today and surrendered only one walk in seven innings.  Although he is often in the shadow of some of the other big name pitchers in the rotation, his contribution to the team this season can not be overlooked.  He goes deep into games and will often pitch well enough to keep his team win.  With the exception of maybe Tavarez he is the most versatile pitcher on the staff and will always do whatever the manager asks of him.

The win gives the Sox a little momentum as they head west to start a nine game road trip that includes six games against Seattle and Anaheim.  They came back and won the series after losing game one and picked up a game on the Yankees in the standings.  Hinske and Mirabelli both had big days at the plate.  This is crucial for the sox because they don’t have much defense coming off the bench so these guys must contribute offensively as much as possible.  While the Yankees have been on fire over the break, the Sox have not let them make much progress in the standings.  They are showing that if they are going to be caught it is going to have to be done over the course of the entire season, not in a few weeks when the Yankees roll off a winning streak. 

Storyline:

Boston’s offense took six innings to get going but when it finally it was enough to come from behind and beat the Orioles at Fenway.  Trachsel pitched well enough to win but was let down by his bullpen.  Boston again feasted on sub-par middle relief pitching which has been a trademark all season.  The bullpen for the Sox held the lead and in doing so they kept up with the red hot Yankees.

It has to be a scary thing for an opposing pitcher to face David Ortiz when he gets hot.  After taking two pitches on the inside part of the plate, BigPapi lined a pitch on the outer half of the plate off the green monster for an rbi double that started the scoring for Boston in the seventh.  Ortiz has always killed the pitch down and in, but what has made him one of the most feared hitters in the game over the last five years has been his ability to drive balls off the green monster. He appears to have found that groove again. Tavarez was not dominate by any stretch of the imagination, but he took the ball as a starter showing his willness to do whatever it takes to help the team win.  Pedroia had three hits to continue his impressive season at the plate.

This was a crucial win for Boston because it sets them up to win the series tonight.  The way the Yankees are playing they can’t afford to be losing series at home against below .500 teams.  It was critical that Papelbon came on in the ninth and mowed down the Orioles to earn his 24th save.  Like all great closers Papelbon showed no signs of the troubles he had against Tampa Bay. The addition of Gagne has appeared to have added a positive shot in the arm which could make him even tougher down the stretch.

Julian Tavarez (RHP): Tavarez is getting the spot start against the Orioles in place of Kason Gabbard, who was part of the trade that brought over Eric Gagne. Tavarez struggled mightily over his last three starts, giving up 18 runs over 13 1/3 innings, forcing him to move to the bullpen to make room for Jon Lester. Tavarez has been better since moving to the pen, allowing 0 ER over 3 innings. Tavarez looks to be rested and should still be stretched out, meaning that if he pitches well, he should be able to go deep into the game. The problem with Tavarez is that he recently has struggled to get deep into games, only going 5+ innings once in his last six starts. He handles lineups well the first time around, but his stuff is not good enough to consistently get hitters out once they see him the second and third times around. His bread and butter pitches are his sinker and slider, with his curveball and changeup being show pitches to RHH and LHH respectively. If he keeps the ball down against the Orioles, he should be able to keep his team in the game against Steve Trachsel. A very important point to note; with the addition of Gagne, the starters plan of attack might change because the Red Sox front office has now shortened the games for them.

Steve Trachsel (RHP): Trachsel is going through a tough part of his season right now, having given up 24 runs over his last five starts. He doesn’t have particularly good stuff, though he will throw five pitches. The problem is that Trachsel has to nibble at the corners of the zone, which is part of the reason he has walked 51 in 102 innings this year. Look for the patience of the Red Sox to come into play in this department, as he could have trouble with walks and getting deep into the game. Trachsel has already faced Boston once this year and gave up 4 runs in 4 1/3 innings while walking four, and the line this time around could easily look very similar. Trachsel has also struggled on the road, and pitching at Fenway Park will be a challenge for him as well. The best the Orioles can hope for is that Trachsel keeps them in the game, because he does not matchup well with the Red Sox at all, and could very easily have a very short night.

Josh Beckett (RHP): Beckett was a hard-luck loser his last time out, going 8 innings and giving up one run in a loss to Fausto Carmona in Cleveland. Look for Beckett to go deep into the game against the weak Baltimore offense, as he is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two starts against the Orioles so far this year. As of late, Beckett has been going to his changeup late in the count, and has been catching hitters off-balance who are waiting on a fastball. The pitch is sitting at 85-86 MPH with some sink to it, the change in speeds and the fact that he rarely used this pitch earlier in the season has given hitters trouble recently. Beckett still features a plus curveball and plus fastball that sits at 95-96, but his use of this third pitch recently has allowed him to continue his success this year. In addition to using his changeup more, Beckett’s command has been much improved this year, as he is giving up far fewer homeruns and walks than in his first season with Boston.

Erik Bedard (LHP): Bedard is one of the toughest pitchers in the league right now and leads the league in strikeouts with 175 at a rate of 11.12 per nine innings. He has given up only two runs over his last four starts, which include a complete game shutout of Texas in which he struck out fifteen batters. He is easily one of the top starters in the league, at the same level as Beckett and Dan Haren, but plays for a weaker team. He mixes a plus FB with a solid CV and SL and adequate CH and cut FB which happens to break more than any cutter in baseball. He is incredibly tough on LHH, and this could bring problems for Boston if David Ortiz and J.D. Drew who happen to be having their own problems lately. The one weakness in Bedard’s game at the moment is that he has been giving up quite a few home runs on fastballs that he has left up in the zone, with a total of 16 for the year and 8 in his last ten games. If Manny Ramirez stays hot, this could be an interesting matchup to watch, and look for Wily Mo Pena to possibly get some at-bats or even start in place of Drew in RF. Regardless of Boston’s lineup, Bedard should be able to keep his team in the game against Beckett, and could possibly outpitch him as well. One of the best matchups of the year.

Roger Clemens (RHP) has been worth the money thus far, he has pitched very well and kept the team in almost every game he’s pitched. Velocity is consistent and his command in and out of the zone is almost where he wants it. The Orioles veterans will be more of a challenge for him; collectively they aren’t as anxious a hitting group which was clearly evident in last nights game against Andy Pettitte. They won’t swing at as many bad pitches (split-finger) out of the zone as other teams, unless of course Roger can pound his fastball inside off the plate. His gameplan will be pretty evident from the start as it should be to pound his fastball establishing the inner half of the plate.

Brian Burres (LHP) is a fill-in starter for the O’s; he is a LHP capable of pitching as a starter or out of the bullpen in long relief. His long arms and legs with his cross-fire type delivery create a deceptive release point adding to the difficulty for LHH to pick up the ball. He throws four pitches (FB, SL, CH, CV) and mixes his pitches well. He attempts to keep the ball down in the zone early in the count and with two strikes on batters he will add on to his fastball and finish up in the zone; He’ll use his slider as his swing and miss pitch off the plate to his gloveside to both right and left hand hitters. Burres’s weakness is his fastball command as he’ll tend to leave it up in the zone too often, also the fact that he nibbles too much at the beginning of the game usually gets him in a hole from the get go. If the Yankees are patient they should be successful against Burres, but if Burres can get his changeup over the plate as DeLaRosa (KC) did against the Yankees, he’ll have his way with them.

He has pitched in the majors for Baltimore once in Arizona earlier in the year and the last time was the day he was called up from Norfolk on Wed. July 25. One of leaders of the International League in saves, he was closing for the Norfolk AAA team. He is used out of the pen. His FB has above average velocity with late life through the zone but it is straight and he leaves it up which is not by design. His out pitch is a split which has a quick late break to it when he keeps it down in the zone but he tends to over-throw it as well which causes it to hang in the middle of the zone. His slider needs work but if he can throw if for strikes early in the count, it can be an effective weapon for him. He has enough to stuff to pitch at the ML level in the later innings but he needs to improve his overall command in the strike zone and throw more quality strikes to have success in the majors. Hard-nosed type of pitcher, no nonsense attitude. Good makeup.

Fastball(90-94) Grade: 60/65

hard and straight when up in the zone; his fastball shows tailing action when down. His command with his fastball is below average but he is aggressive with it, especially early in the count. If he can command this pitch it would be the difference of being on the major league team.

Slider (82-84) Grade: 40/50

Tends to overthrow this pitch. His slider is used early in the count to get ahead of aggressive fastball hitters. It is a below average pitch with inconsistent depth because of him trying to throw it too hard. His slider needs more development.

Split-finger (81-85) Grade 60/60

His outpitch which shows tailing action and sink when down. It is a good pitch that he’ll get a lot of swings and misses from. Doyne doesn’t like to show this pitch too early in the sequence unless there are runners in scoring position.

Strengths: Aggressive attitude and approach; Works at a good pace; Plus fastball and Split

Weaknesses: Below average command of his pitches; predictable pitch sequences; inexperience at the MLB level

Overall Category: Key Role

The Baltimore Orioles are getting pitching help from all sorts of combinations. Rob Bell recalled from Norfolk on June 20 has pitched in 16 games for the O’s. Currently being used as a #8 and #9 reliever out of the pen, Bell is capable of spot starting. He’s given the team a bit more flexibility with their young staff as he collect the win yesterday against his old team Tampa Bay.

Suspended game: Although the edge goes to the Yankees with a two run lead in the eighth inning the matchups in this short contest will be the most difficult to apply. During the course of a game, matchups are made by managers identifying tendencies, strengths, and weaknesses. Today that won’t be the case. In fact there should be more emphasis put on pre-game analysis than anything else. Coaches and players will need to watch batting practice very closely. Many hitters apply their game approach to BP, so it should be monitored today as closely as advance scouting is from the previous series - it could very well be the difference in the game.

Jeremy Guthrie will start the first game for the O’s. He’s been pitching very consistent based on his approach and pre-game routine. He’s always had a good arm but Cleveland couldn’t help him so they gave up on him. Credit Leo Mazzone for Guthrie’s turnaround but maturity has a lot to do with success regardless of the coaches. Guthrie throws a plus fastball, SL, CV, and changeup. His ability to get ahead of hitters and trust his stuff has allowed him to give his club plenty of innings going deep into games. He’s been attacking the strike zone and is working at a good consistent tempo throughout his starts.

Andy Pettitte is also getting into a comfortable groove, Pettitte has kept his team in games more than any other on the Yankee staff and this is certainly his time of year. With a little run support Pettitte will manage a lead better than any other on the team. The problem might be scoring off of Guthrie. Pettitte hasn’t changed very much in his approach or pitches. His aggressiveness in the strike zone is the key. When he doesn’t attack and he gives the hitters too much credit is usually when he gets in trouble.

Yesterday at Kansas City:    Yankees 0 - KC 7

The Good News: Igawa’s mechanics were better he was more erect and his shoulders stayed square longer to the plate. His fastball has a bit more life to it and his bad inning happened all at once. For the most part he was more consistent which happens to be a good sign.

The Bad News: on any other evening in KC Igawa might have had a win, bad timing. The offense couldn’t muster an attack off of DeLaRosa because his style matches up well against the Yankees. The Red Sox scored two touchdowns against the Indians and won, and Manny has his power stroke back!