My friend and teammate Rich Rundles once commented in the bullpen, “I can’t wait for the off-season, I get to choose my own friends again”. Now, Rich is a great guy who is liked by everyone and likes just about everyone, but his comment, besides being funny, was one of great truths of professional baseball. For six months, whether you like it or not, the people that you work with are also the people you live with, travel with, and ultimately become friends with. Some friendships are forced. Just like in any work place. Every team has its Michael Scotts and Dwight Schrutes and the rest of the cast. Personalities clash every once in a while and teammates openly despise each other (Kent vs. Bonds, Zambrano vs. Barrett, Ty Cobb vs. everybody). However, for the most part, in my experience, baseball teammates often become friends.

Maybe it’s all the time together, or the shared experiences, or even the shared struggles, but players bond in the minor leagues more so then would seem natural. Personally, I’ve really lucky. As I have said before, I have been blessed with incredible teammates my whole career. A lot of my closest friends have been my teammates at one point or another. If I could have chosen them for friends, I would have. I am not sure they would say the same, but we’re friends nonetheless.

On the flip side though, the business side is like any office; friends come and go depending on opportunities. People get promoted. People get fired. It’s all part of the job. Except there is no sendoff party with lousy cake and cheesy cards and forced laughter at jokes that aren’t even jokes. Instead, most of the time, people just aren’t there when you come back in Spring Training. This year, a few of my best friends from the Indians system these past few years won’t be there when I arrive in Goodyear (Cleveland’s new spring training home). Some like my sometimes nemesis but good Canadian friend TJ Burton hit minor league free agency and took a good deal, one that gives him a better opportunity than he might have received with the Indians. Another, my friend Jeff Stevens, got traded to the Cubs and will get a real shot at making Lou’s bullpen out of spring training.

These things happen and I understand that this is part of the game, but it’s not one of the better parts. While I am happy for their opportunities, I am selfishly going to miss my friends. Jeff and TJ were my roommates last year. Even though we were all right-handed relievers competing for the same opportunities, we had solid relationships on and off the field. They were the first to pick me up if I had a bad game. They were also the first to make fun of me, basically whenever I was riding high or just awake for that matter. We literally know just about everything that could offend each other and we use that to the fullest, but with that familiarity comes a sort of bond that you can only have after spending 16 hours a day with a group of guys for six months. I mean who else is going to convince an entire Arizona Fall League bullpen to give me a standing “O” on my way out of the bullpen just because they knew it would pump me up and make everyone else laugh at how ridiculous I can be?

While I am sure I will bond with my new teammates and develop great friendships, I am going to miss those guys. They were good friends, and I wish them the best. I also won’t see much of them. I’ll shoot them the occasional text message making fun of Jeff for having an abnormally large head or TJ because he’s French Canadian. We might grab a beer after a game if we play each other, but odds are that we won’t end up spending six months of our lives together again. That’s just the way it is.

Don’t worry Chicago, you have a future big leaguer in Jeff Stevens. Houston, lucky for you, TJ Burton’s best days are ahead of him. And back in Cleveland, hopefully I will end up making a positive impact for the big club this year. It’s still going to be weird not having those guys around. I can only imagine what it will be like for them in completely new environments. But the goal remains the same for every minor leaguer: get to the Big Leagues. For most of my former teammates switching teams this off-season, it seems that they have more of a chance now than ever.

Baseball is a cycle. Players come, players go, everyone goes their own way. The window of opportunity is small. A couple of years, a couple of key moments, and a couple of opportunities. Even the best of careers span barely two decades. However, whether a player gets to the Big Leagues or not, the experience will always be something they will draw on. Luckily for me, no matter what happens on the field, I have guys like Jeff Stevens and TJ Burton who helped me not only enjoy the time I spent in the minors but to make the most of it. I also can’t wait for the day where we can meet back up and discuss which Big League road city is the best or something along those lines.

Randy Newsom is a 26-year-old, side-arming closer in the Indians minor league organization who writes for Dugout Central. An undrafted free agent signing out of Tufts University by the Red Sox, Newsom was traded to the Indians as the player to be named later in the Coco Crisp deal. See his career stats here.

This is the final in a three part series in which Jeff Moore is proposing three trades - one obvious (George Sherrill to Tampa), one less obvious (Adrian Beltre to San Francisco) and now one that will never actually happen but should.

The Indians get:

• Roy Halladay

The Blue Jays get:

• Nick Weglarz
• Adam Miller
• Beau Mills
• Scott Lewis

“We won’t be in on anyone who’s going to cost any money. This is going to be a year where a lot of our kids are going to get exposure. That’s going to be a fun thing, to see how some of our kids develop.” - Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi, December 24, 2008

Apparently fun is a relative term.

If J.P. Ricciardi’s idea of fun is watching his kids develop in the gauntlet that is the American League East, I hope I’m never invited to a party at his house. Ricciardi needs to call Andy MacPhail and ask just how fun it is. It takes patience and a strong will of seeing a long-term plan through to the end, but fun? Not so much.

Unfortunately for Ricciardi, he is correct in his statement. This is not only the right plan for the Blue Jays for 2009, but it’s the only choice they really have.

The passing of Blue Jays owner Ted Rogers a month ago has left the organization in a state of uncertainty, especially regarding its payroll. While the details are sorted out regarding the future of Rogers Communication as a part of the Blue Jays ownership, the payroll flexibility that Rogers gave Ricciardi over the past six years has been put on hold. In addition, the decline of the Canadian dollar has further complicated the matter.

Long story short, the Jays won’t be spending any money this off-season, making it terribly difficult to improve from their 86-76 showing of 2008.

Most teams would see 86-76 in the standings and be pleased, ready to take that next step, and prepare for a jump to the playoffs in 2009. But the Jays play in the AL East, and sometimes life is just not fair.

If the Blue Jays had played in the AL Central, they would have finished two games back of the Twins/White Sox 1-game playoff, and that’s without replacing the 36 games they played against the Red Sox and Yankees with 36 against the Royals and Tigers. Obviously these types of scenarios can only be looked at in a vacuum, thus limiting their validity, but the point remains that if the Blue Jays immediate competition was coming from within a weaker division, they would be in a position to compete in 2009, even without making any major additions.

This is simply not the case.

The Jays have been attempting to spend with the big boys, handing out big extensions to budding stars Vernon Wells and Alexis Rios, spending big on the free agent market for pitchers B.J. Ryan and the now departed A.J. Burnett, and trading for (and taking on the salary of) third baseman Scott Rolen. Unfortunately, none of the moves have worked.

Wells and Rios have played below their potential since signing. Ryan has been successful when healthy, but missed virtually all of 2007. Burnett was injured and inconsistent, then opted out of his contract. Scott Rolen simply isn’t the player he once was. This is supposed to be the core of the Blue Jays team, but they are not getting the job done.

Ryan is healthy again, and Wells bounced back in 2008, and there is little reason to think Rios won’t do the same in 2009, but it won’t be enough. The pitching rotation has been the Blue Jays strength over the past few years, led by ace Roy Halladay and a collection of pitchers who, while not household names, have put forth the performance any team would love to have. Jesse Litsch, Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan have combined to make 144 starts with a 59-48 record and a 3.87 ERA over the past two years. That’s pretty good production from the middle of your rotation.

The problem? McGowan is out until at least May with a shoulder injury and Marcum is already out until 2010. That leaves the Jays with only Halladay and Litsch as sure things in their rotation entering Spring Training.

With a team built around its pitching and no money available to throw at free agents like Derek Lowe or Ben Sheets or any of the big hitters left to compensate, the Jays are behind the 8-ball when it comes to loading up for 2009.

Even if they spent the money, would it make a difference this year? Considering the money the Yankees spent to reload still hasn’t made them the obvious favorites in the division, I’d say there’s little the Jays could even do.

But maybe they can learn from their division counterparts. While the Red Sox and Yankees spend like we’re not in a recession, the Tampa Bay Rays leapfrogged both of them in 2008 with a team full of young talent and low salaries. Would the Jays benefit more from this approach?

The real question should be: do they have a choice?

Roy Halladay will be a free agent after the 2010 season, and given the financial factors at work for the Blue Jays, it seems unlikely they will be able to resign him, unless he gives them a serious hometown discount. Given the current state of the AL East, a better option for the Blue Jays would be to effectively restock their farm system by trading with two years remaining rather than one.

Look at the difference in what the Braves gave up to get Mark Teixeira with a year and a half left compared to what the Angels gave up to get the same player a year later. Thanks to Neftali Feliz and Elvis Andrus, the Rangers now have one of the top farm systems in all of baseball and Jarrod Saltalamacchia is somebody’s catcher of the future, if it’s not Texas’. The Blue Jays can get a similar package for two years of Roy Halladay.

The Cleveland Indians, on the other hand, play in the aforementioned AL Central, a division devoid of perennial big spenders. It is a division where one major acquisition like Roy Halladay can swing the balance of power. The Indians have shown a willingness to open their checkbook when the time is right (back in 2001 their payroll was over $93 million – last season it was around $79 million) and might be willing to do so again for a true ace.

The Indians badly underachieved in 2008. The talented Tribe simply couldn’t put it together until August, then proceeded to play the way they were capable of, going 34-21 down the stretch. It was too little, too late, but it showed the rest of the American League what they were capable of for 2009.

Add to the equation Kerry Wood in the closer’s role, Mark DeRosa somewhere in the infield, and a healthy Fausto Carmona likely performing closer to his 2007 version than what we saw last year, and the 2009 Indians are ready to compete in what should be a wide open division.

But they need something to put them over the top.

They do still have some serious question marks. Will Carmona bounce back, and if so, how far? Can Cliff Lee even come close to his Cy Young season again? Will they get 30 starts out of Jake Westbrook?

Halladay would be the answer.

Unfortunately they would have to seriously deplete their farm system in order to get him, but there might be some silver lining. The Indians’ top two prospects are C Carlos Santana and LF/DH Matt LaPorta. Typically, if the Blue Jays were asking around about a player like Halladay they would want the top prospects of any potential suitors. But the Blue Jays have a few top prospects of their own, in Travis Snider and J.P. Arencibia. They’re positions? LF/DH and C.

It is seemingly possible the Blue Jays would take this opportunity to load up for their future at other positions while at the same time, the Indians would be willing to unload the majority of their top prospects if it meant grabbing Halladay without giving up Santana and LaPorta.

In return for Halladay, the Indians would have to part with a number of highly talented players. Nick Weglarz is another LF, but one who should actually stay at the position, unlike LaPorta and Snider, both of whom are likely destined to be DHs. His line as a 20-year-old in High-A last year was .272/.396/.432. Weglarz has potential plus power and a great eye at the plate. He should start 2009 in Double-A, so he’s not far away.

Another player the Blue Jays would certainly want is Adam Miller, the power-armed righty who is the Indians top pitching prospect and has been their top overall prospect for the past few years. In 490 innings across six minor league seasons, the 24-year-old has a 3.51 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, striking out 475. While Miller’s chances of being a potential ace are less certain than they once were, his arm is still just as powerful as ever when healthy, and it looks like he has the potential to at least become a big league closer.

Beau Mills was the Indians top pick in 2007. The 22-year-old is simply a hitter (.293/.373/.506 in High-A in 2008), but in the Indians case, his only potential defensive position is 1B, where they have a logjam of prospects, or DH, which likely will be LaPorta’s future home. Either way, the Indians have additional options at 1B. The Blue Jays do have 2008 1st round draft pick David Cooper at 1B, but it is doubtful they would turn down the chance to get Mills’ bat.

Trying to find spots in the lineup for Snider, Mills, Cooper, Weglarz and current LF Adam Lind would be a problem J.P. Ricciardi would love to have. Considering the Blue Jays’ recent penchant for developing pitchers but having struggling offenses, this type of roster assembly would provide a nice change for the fans in Toronto.

Additionally, though, SP Scott Lewis would have to be included to get this trade done. This 25-year-old lefty overachieved in four late season starts in 2008 (four wins, 2.63 ERA, 1.083 WHIP) but could be an effective member of the Jays rotation. If nothing else Lewis can take the departed Halladay’s starts right away.

These players might not be the exact participants should a trade occur, but this example illustrates the approach the Blue Jays should take with Roy Halladay. Perhaps Ricciardi would want more arms in return, and ask Cleveland for prospects like Kelvin de la Cruz or David Huff. Perhaps he would hold out for LaPorta or Santana. Maybe another team could offer more than the Indians.

But likely it won’t happen at all. I understand why Ricciardi won’t make a move like this. How, as the public representative of the direction of his franchise, can he essentially make the public statement that “even though we’re pretty good, we just can’t compete in this division so we’re going to start over.”

He can’t do it. Or maybe he just won’t.

This is the kind of move GM’s won’t make. Ricciardi knows the clock is ticking on being able to throw Halladay out on the mound every fifth day, and he knows he needs to get something for him when he leaves. He also knows that with every passing day, Halladay’s return value goes down.

He also knows that the Blue Jays won’t compete anytime between now and when that clock expires.

But he isn’t likely to make a move. General Managers don’t make moves like this too often. Billy Beane did (when he traded Dan Haren with two years left on his contract) and the return he got was substantial. The A’s also went 75-86 without him. Was it an easy decision? No. Was it the right decision? We don’t know yet, but they probably wouldn’t have won the AL West if they still had Haren, so it looks good so far. The only reason Haren would return more than Halladay is his age (four years younger) and willingness to sign an extension (which he did).

So here is Ricciardi’s chance to be realistic, make a bold move, and reload his team for a time when they actually have a chance. How will he handle it? How would you?

Jeff Moore is the creator of mlbprospectwatch.com, a one-stop site for all information regarding baseball prospects and the minor leagues.  Check back for daily updates on your team’s future stars.

This is one of my favorite times of the year. The season is over, the awards are all handed out and everyone is busily scouring the statistics to find something significant to discuss. I’m a forward-looking sort of fellow, so this time of year always gets me thinking about next year — namely the lesser-known, young players who might make a big impact in 2009.

Here are some of those players – I picked one from each division.

Joey Devine – Oakland Athletics – Age 24 – Relief Pitcher

2008 was Devine’s first year with significant innings at the MLB level. He’s been on a lot of people’s radar for a few years now, but he really showed his potential last season, garnering 6th place in ROY voting. While teammate Brad Zeigler got more press (because of that 39 scoreless inning streak, Devine had the better numbers. Monstrous numbers. Granted, there’s no way he can carry a 685 ERA+ or 0.832 WHIP into 2009, but Devine’s future looks bright. His 3/4delivery is a great asset, with hitters picking up his stuff late. His fastball is in the mid-90s, but he can push it beyond that at times. His biggest weakness has been command (37 walks in 65.1 career Major League innings), especially against left-handed hitters (17 walks in 109 plate appearances). With Huston Street now out of the picture, A’s fans can look forward to a Devine/Zeigler as their setup/closer combination. It reminds me of the old Duane Ward/Tom Henke days in Toronto.

Shin-Soo Choo – Cleveland Indians – Age 25 - Outfielder

Cleveland has a bit of a logjam in the outfield for 2009. Grady Sizemore (128 OPS+) is a start; Ben Francisco (100) and Franklin Gutierrez (80) were both very serviceable; and with Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner both likely returning from injury, someone, perhaps Kelly Shoppach (123) or Ryan Garko (97) might need to be moved around – possibly to the outfield? David Dellucci (85) is still under contract, so he may provide an obstacle as well. However, despite all that, I believe Choo, who had a line of .299/.381/.455 in 708 minor league games, will continue his strong showing and will play himself into a starting corner outfield role. He isn’t likely to maintain his slugging percentage, but his average and on-base percentage could stay about the same, and that would make the Indians very happy.

Travis Snider – Toronto Blue Jays – Age 20 – Outfielder

Snider has one of the shortest tenures of any of the players I examined. However, he did one thing that most of the others did not: he tore his way through the minor leagues and kept up his production after September call-ups. Having watched most of his appearances with the big club, the thing that impressed me the most was his consistency. He seemed to always have his head in the game, whether it was at the plate in a difficult situation, or tracking a deep fly ball in left. As a Jays fan, I wish I could say the same for Alex Rios. Snider compiled a 6.1 RC/G in 2008. Sure, they’re not Pujols numbers, but they’re pretty steady for a guy just out of his teens. There’s a lot of talk that he’ll get a full year at AAA Las Vegas in 2009, but I think there’s a good chance he continues his hitting in Spring Training and makes the club as a starter in left field or at DH.

On Friday we’ll look at some impact youngsters in the National League.

Join Indians’ Minor Leaguer Randy Newsom for a chat here on Friday at 12:30 PM EST at http://www.dugoutcentral.com/chat/index.php. 

As I tried to collect my thoughts about my time in Venezuela, I really couldn’t think of what I wanted to highlight. I enjoyed the people, the baseball, even the cultural differences. If I had to go back and do it again, I absolutely would. So my question to myself was why was it so hard to come up with one topic and focus on it? I think the answer is actually lies in the fact that I left Venezuela with regrets.

While I expected to leave when I did, I don’t think I ever expected to come back with that little in terms of performance and execution to show for it. I expected to get eight to ten outings in and come back home and prepare for next year. I ended up getting six outings in and feeling like I let a golden opportunity slip through my fingers. And I’ll tell you why: my own mentality.

The game in Venezuela was everything it was hyped up to be. The fans, the energy, the camaraderie, it was all there. There were times when bases loaded and two outs in the second inning felt like some of the ninth innings I had this year in the States. People threw full beers every time the home team scored whether it was the first or the ninth. Every inning mattered, people played every pitch, and for the baseball purist, it really is good baseball. What has left me so unsatisfied though is the fact that I didn’t add to the incredible start my team enjoyed.

Just like almost every professional athlete, I have an ego. I’m not going to start referring to myself in the third person or anything but an ego is present. Randy likes to think of himself as one of the unsung heroes that may not get all the press but definitely helps a team win (can you honestly imagine someone talking like that?). I’ve been fortunate enough to be on nothing but winning baseball teams my whole life. I’ve often felt like this was not coincidence, but that I was a key component of the team’s success. In Venezuela, I can promise that this was not the case. The Leones de Caracas would have been just as good without me.

I am not saying that I hurt the team. Despite my stats, I know that I didn’t cost my team a game, and that my own personal struggles happened at convenient times (maybe part of the problem as I always seem to do better in closer games). However, as a player with an ego, I also can say with certainty that I didn’t add a single win to the left hand column either. I felt like I sat on the bench, collected a paycheck, and added very little while others did the work. It’s a very unsettling feeling to know that my time with my team I grew to love in Venezuela was insignificant.

For my whole career I have been the undrafted free agent senior sign with a chip on his shoulder that goes out there as if it could be his last game to prove everyone wrong. I have actually pitched games knowing that if I had a bad outing, my career would be over. Didn’t faze me; I enjoyed the added intensity. I actually enjoy pressure and stress. That wasn’t how I went about it in Venezuela though. It was almost as if I was a tourist. I still worked hard and tried to help my team, but I didn’t prepare the same way and didn’t act is if every game could be my last. That was a serious mistake.

Baseball is a fickle game. One day you’re the stud of the future with a hundred million dollar asking price; the next you’re sitting on the bench behind Juan Pierre and two rookies. Every game is different, and every batter a new competition. I never treated it like that. My approach was completely different in Venezuela then it has been in the United States. I didn’t battle the way I did; I just let things happen. My intensity was well below what I would have allowed myself just three months earlier.

It doesn’t matter who you are in professional baseball, the talent gap isn’t enough that you can just go out there and phone it in. Tony Gwynn was a career .300+ hitter because it didn’t matter who he was facing, what the score was, or what type of season he was having, he had the same approach. He was going to win that at bat. This is what separates the great from the good, and to be honest, the guys who establish themselves as big leaguers from those who do not. This is also why some of the Venezuelans I played with are able to succeed the way they do in Venezuela after struggling in the States. It happens, but if you want to get to the Big Leagues, you need to find that consistency.

So here I sit back in the United States, happy to be back, but completely unfulfilled with my experience in Venezuela, and it’s all on me. For the first time in my career I let the moment pass and didn’t even fight for it. And, as a result, I might pay for it. 40 man roster, rule V drafts, Big League spring training – these were all things that I felt could have been in my near future, but my stats in Venezuela might have changed that. Yes, it was only six weeks, but it was an opportunity to prove once again that I am good at overcoming adversity and proving that I am ready for the Big Leagues. I can honestly say that I feel ready and know my talent is there, but my approach in Venezuela definitely hurt my career.

But like I said, baseball is fickle. I learned a lot about myself in Venezuela. It was definitely a growing experience. As a person, I am glad I got to see a different culture and the way that people are reacting to a different style of government (more on that in my Friday chat). I met a lot of great people, made some friends, and definitely improved my skills. I also regained my heart and passion for the game. However, I need the break. I need to recharge my batteries and take the lessons I learned on mentality and get ready to apply them next year.

Venezuela taught me a lot, but none the more to appreciate that every situation is a new opportunity. I might have missed on this one but thanks to that realization, I won’t miss again. Leaving somewhere with regrets is not a good feeling. I left Venezuela with some regrets. I can’t change it now, but I can make sure not to repeat it in the future.

For a guy like me, getting to the Big Leagues is a grind. I know that the Big League season is an even harder grind though. I know I have the desire and ability to succeed there, but I also know that I have to show the consistency that it takes for a player to stay in the big leagues and make an impact. My goal has never just been to get to the Big Leagues. My goal is to help a team win a World Series. After leaving Venezuela feeling insignificant in my team’s possible championship run, I promise I will never leave a team with those regrets again. I fully expect to make good on that promise starting next year.

Randy Newsom is a 26-year-old, side-arming closer in the Indians minor league organization who will be blogging for Dugout Central about playing in the Venezuelan Winter League. An undrafted free agent signing out of Tufts University by the Red Sox, Newsom was traded to the Indians as the player to be named later in the Coco Crisp deal. See his career stats here.

Despite baseball being a team game, in professional baseball especially, there is a lot of focus placed on the individual. Personally, even just in this blog, I focus a lot on my own career, experiences, future prospects, etc. Athletes, at many different levels, from grade school to the pros, seem to get the lion’s share of praise and adulation for their own individual accomplishments or their personal roles in successes. In professional sports, specifically for our purposes, professional baseball, there is something that gets lost amongst all the supposed glamour and headlines – and that’s the families, friends and loved ones of each athlete.

In life it seems that one’s happiness is often tied to relationships. How many times have we been shown the old Hollywood cliché of the business mogul that can buy the world (a la Citizen Kane, et al) but can’t buy his own happiness? I think it’s true, for the individual triumphs that I have had, the most thrilling part is often sharing it with the people I love. Their support and admiration is the kind of stuff that gives me honest to God joy more then anything. It’s also these same people that I think get the worst deal in professional sports (well, outside of Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Clippers fans).

I chose to play professional baseball. I know that at any given time I can be traded, promoted, demoted, loaned, disabled, suspended, whatever, and I took the job with that knowledge in hand. I understood that I would spend at least seven months a year away from home with only a handful of off days in that time. I knew that I would miss holidays, parties, graduations, weddings the day I took the job. I not only chose the career, I chose the lifestyle. The people that I love did not.

No, in fact, they stood there and offered their support even though they knew it would cost them a normal relationship with a son, boyfriend, or brother. Even my best friends knew that to see me that they would have to put in most of the effort and even then it might not get them anything other then a free ticket to a random baseball game. This was the burden that I put on them and yet they receive no credit.

While I get positive attention when things are going well, they get to hear my incessant complaints when things aren’t. If I get traded, the team pays my expenses, but does not refund the plane ticket they had to the now obsolete destination. Even the best made plans can fall apart in an instant, and they have to be the ones to pick up the pieces.

My father made trips to three different cities and 13 games last year, including flying to Connecticut from Ohio for the AA All-Star game. Even though I led the Indians organizations in appearances, he didn’t see me pitch once. The All-Star game got fogged out in the third inning, and his $1000 trip got him about four hours of time with me. He told me that it was completely worth it.

My girlfriend has traveled by my count to over 15 cities in the past four years to see me. She now knows that when you fly into Washington, DC and need to get to Potomac to see a baseball game you don’t want Potomac, Maryland. You want Potomac, Virginia.

My brother once drove five hours out of his way once just to catch a game in Erie, PA. Fifteen of my closest friends from college made a day trip up to Portland, Maine last year, got hotel rooms and watched me get into a bench clearing brawl with my former Red Sox teammates (actually, that one was probably completely worth it for them).

My point is this: a lot of people have been generous with their time, effort and affection to help me get to where I am. It might take a village to raise a child (although the jury is still out on that), but it takes true commitment to love a baseball player.

We take and take and take. And the worst part is we know it and keep doing it anyway. We get the awards and the prestige, and sometimes the hecklers and jeers, but they get an absent person in their lives.

If you are wondering why I am writing this now, it’s because I am now in the off-season. After a tough six week stretch in Venezuela that had its ups and downs, I am now back in the States. I enjoyed my time immensely and promise to write more about experiences there in a blog next week, but before I headed into off-season mode I had to bring light to this subject.

I am not alone in this journey. I have lots of people that support me. Family members who email, call, write, and do everything they can in their power to help me achieve as an athlete and succeed as a person. I have a lot of love in my life, and from what I’ve heard so do all my teammates. For some it’s a wife or girlfriend. For others it’s a parent or sibling. But behind every great player that I’ve met is someone who loves them and is supporting them with everything they have.

These people are the true stars. We just play games and they take care of the hard stuff.

So on that note: thank you. To my family, friends, and girlfriend, I cannot tell you how much I appreciate your love and support. It sustains me, keeps me up when things are down, and reminds me that baseball is just a game and that life has a lot more to it then Wins, Losses, and ERA. I know I don’t show my thanks enough and I certainly don’t deserve everything that I get from you guys, but it is appreciated more then I can put into words.

Now, that I am back in off-season mode, hopefully I can give you some of my time and effort to prove how much it means to me.

Like I said, once I get my thoughts together, I will throw more out there on Venezuela, but I had to get this one off of my heart.

Cliff Lee

• Starting Pitcher
• Cleveland Indians
• Born: 08/30/78
• Height/Weight: 75/180
• Bats/Throws: Left/Left
• Arm Angle: High three-quarter
• Body Type: Tall thin build with long arms and legs

Categorization

• Current: Good
• Future: Good

Categorization Scale:

• Elite: top one or two pitchers in the game (Roy Halladay, Bob Gibson)
• Premium: top ten pitcher (Dan Haren, Jake Peavy)
• Good: top of the rotation guy; occasional All-Star (Daisuke Matsuzaka, Mike Mussina, Justin Verlander)
• Average: back of the rotation guy (Oliver Perez, Jarrod Washburn)
• Key role: occasional starter (Julian Tavarez – 2006-2007)

Grades (20-80 scale)

• Overall: 55
• Fastball: 55
• Slider: 50
• Curve: 55
• Change-up: 50
• Overall command:50
• Fielding: 60
• Range: 55
• Instinct: 55
• Release times: 1B – 1.19; 2B – 1.24

Overall

Cliff Lee was the Indians’ best starter in 2008, all the more amazing given that he had been demoted to the minors in 2007. His American League ranking in key categories:

• 1st in Wins (22)
• 1st in ERA (2.54)
• 1st in Won-Loss % (.880)
• 2nd in WHIP (1.110)
• 5th in K/9 (8.09)
• 2nd in Innings (223.3)
• 1st in Adjusted ERA (175)

Compare that performance to his 2007: 5-8 with a 6.29 ERA, 1.521 WHIP and 73 ERA+. Lee suffered in 2007 because he was inconsistent with his approach on the mound. He didn’t have a pitching plan and/or he didn’t stick with the plan. He was simply throwing the ball and hoping he got outs. Unless you’re a very physically gifted pitcher (one who throws in the upper 90’s), which Lee is not, your performance is going to suffer.

In 2008 Lee had that consistent approach – the way he watched the opposition, evaluated himself and trusted the things he does well. He had a plan and stuck with it. It’s an old school scouting term, but Lee experienced “development” in 2008.

Though Lee had a premium year, he is not categorized as a premium pitcher. To do so he needs to demonstrate that he can repeat this level of performance.

Strengths

• Creates a plus angle
• Very good command of his pitches
• Above average fastball and slider
• Holds runners close –difficult to run on

Weaknesses

• Not overpowering
• No legitimate outpitch

Fastball (88-92 mph)

• Movement: will show cut action over the plate and to gloveside; uses a two-seam fastball with small sink to armside.
• Command: shows plus command to both sides of the plate; it is his best asset; uses this pitch inside off the plate to right-handed hitters

Slider (81-84 mph)

• Movement: small depth and break; below average movement
• Command: good command; shows best command to his gloveside; this pitch is used best off the plate as a backfoot slider to right-handed hitters
• Plan: used as an outpitch and swing and miss pitch; very effective when he works at a good quick pace.

Change-up (80-83 mph)

• Movement: small sink to his arm side; average movement.
• Command: Good command; capable of using this pitch in and out of the strike zone.
• Plan: He’ll use it when ahead of the hitters as an outpitch; he likes to set up his changeup with a cut fastball inside off the plate to right-handed hitters; he doesn’t like to use this pitch first time around the order unless he’s in trouble.

Curve (73-76 mph)

• Movement: big 1-7 type break with good depth and average break.
• Command: thrown to both sides of the plate for strikes but commanded best to his gloveside; doesn’t use it as much as an outpitch as for strikes in middle counts

Tendencies

• Whether he has runners on base or not, he likes to start left-handed hitters away with either a fastball or cut fastball.
• He’ll pitch in off the plate more effectively to right-handed hitters than lefties.
• In recent outings we have not seen him throw two strikes of the same type in the same location back to back.

Defense

• Good fielder. He gets off the mound well to both sides.
• Better than average pick-off move to first base and will give an extra look with runners on second.
• Doesn’t use a slide step to the plate, but it’s a very quick move (slight lift prior to going home).

Pitcher Plan

• With no runners on base: Establishes his fastball; uses his off-speed in middle counts; pitches to contact with his fastball or cut fastball.
• With runners in scoring position: Uses off-speed early; hard in middle counts off the plate; finishes with off-speed

Surprisingly, I am starting to settle in here in Venezuela. The last week was not a typical let’s go to Home Depot on Saturday type of affair, but it felt significantly less adventurous then the previous weeks. So while I don’t have a ton of big stories, I thought I would do more of a quick round up of little things that I’ve wanted to throw out there.

I must warn you that these are just ramblings off the top of my head, and there is no semblance of order or theme here. Finally, I appreciate the people that have asked me for opinions on different players. I will try to give you a few, but I don’t ever see myself criticizing or even critiquing another player publicly. I’m not a scout and to be honest if most people who had an opinion about me as a player were right I would be finishing up law school instead of living the dream in Venezuela. On to the show:

It does not matter where or what level you play at in the States or in summer ball in general, because this league is completely different. Our bullpen has some big leaguers who are pitching in the fifth and sixth and struggling (much like myself), and a guy who hasn’t pitched above low-A getting huge outs in the seventh and eighth every night. I’ve seen independent league players tearing it up and short season players make huge plays, all the while a couple of somewhat established big leaguers hover at the “Mendoza line” (.200 average or below).

I played for that “Mendoza” in Mexico last year, and he is a great guy. But under no circumstances mention the line. In fact, forget that I even said anything. There is no such thing.

I would love for someone to ask Elias Sports Bureau or Stats Inc. which is more probable: a ten game winning streak or a ten game losing streak. I bring this up because my team, the Leones de Caracas, hit ten games with our win streak this week. While it’s a great feat and a somewhat rare accomplishment, it’s actually the third time in pro ball that I have been a part of a team that has reached the ten wins in a row mark. On the other hand I have never been on the flip side of that coin on a team that has lost ten in a row. Even my mighty Bengals were able to stop their NFL skid before it hit ten games. I know I’ve been blessed to have been on some winning teams, but I really think that the ten game winning streak has to happen more often then the ten game losing streak. If anyone has an answer I would love to hear it.

Our third basemen Jose Castillo, who I think is still with the Giants, is the man down here. He comes up to bat to this reggaeton (basically Spanish hip hop) song that uses the words “El Hacha” (the axe) in the chorus and the whole stadium goes nuts. Everyone, men, women, children, cops, grounds crew workers, barnyard animals, I mean everyone, spontaneously busts into the “Tomahawk Chop” the second the song comes on. At first I was amazed at how active the fans were in getting in on this, but lately I’ve been doing it too. The song came on in our bus the other day and I started to “Tomahawk Chop” like I had been programmed Manchurian Candidate style.

I have played the last two years against Phillies prospect Carlos Carrasco and have watched him have pretty mixed results. However, I have heard a lot of really good baseball people talk him up and obviously the Phillies, who were in a pennant chase and looking for help, held on to him because they have high expectations. I get it now. Watching him day in and day out, not just when he is on the mound in the game, I realize that he is a special talent with a chance to be a really significant starting pitcher for a long time. He has shown a ton of ability but I really like how even when he is working hard it looks easy. He’s also a pretty good guy, and I enjoy making fun of his Cosmo Kramer haircut he’s sporting right now.

Josh Kroeger, who is a minor league free agent, needs a real chance in someone’s big league spring training. I have seen guys go on some fluky hot streaks, but what he is doing right now is beyond anything someone can fluke. I’ve seen him hit every pitch off of every type of pitcher you can imagine down here. Soft tossers, lefty specialists, flame throwers, he’s absolutely drilling them all. They even gave him a nickname down here. I might mess up the spelling but they call him “La Pesadilla”, or the “Nightmare”. They’ve even gone so far to make his walk out song the screeching sound from Psycho. It’s actually a pretty cool walk out song. Not quite “El Hacha” but it does the job.

Momentum swings occur much more frequently in this league. Instead of a couple runs here and a couple of runs there, it seems that most games feature more big innings than in the States. It’s not uncommon to see one team put up three or four and the other team fire back with six or seven of their own. It might also just be our team because it seems that when we get hot everyone throws fuel on the fire.

That Bob Sinclair song “Love Generation” is now getting worn out down here.

Rob Thomas and his never ending line of similarly sounding singles (if you move your lips while you read that it definitely just caused a tongue twister) have also made the trip down to South American Radio. Thank God for that.

The Presidential Election did not cause a ton of stir down here, but everyone wanted to know my reaction the day after. Now some of you may know my political ideologies if you’ve read some of my other stuff, but I am not one to mix baseball and politics in a purely baseball forum. I thought the amount of coverage of the actual election was a little overboard and that a lot of issues should have gotten more attention. I think that both of the main candidates are good men, and I will leave it at that. As for the Venezuelans I talked to, they were much more interested in what will happen as opposed to the horse race that engulfed America for the past one/almost two years.

I felt like I caught the Bubonic Plague at the beginning of the week. Seriously, I spent our only off day in bed for twenty three of the twenty four hours. My body ached, my head pounded, I couldn’t eat a thing, I had the chills while sweating. It was miserable. It didn’t help that above my hotel suite they were renovating the penthouse floor and the hammers started at eight in the morning and did not stop until six that night. So I went to the field the next day in real bad shape still. The medical staff gave me a couple of pills to take and magically the plague vanished. My hope is that there was nothing bad in those pills, but honestly at that point I didn’t care.

Finally, if there are any specific questions that anyone has, please keep emailing them in. I really appreciate the different questions and comments I have been getting and really like the insight I have received from people like Leo.

I’ll come back with something more coherent soon.

Randy Newsom is a 26-year-old, side-arming closer in the Indians minor league organization who will be blogging for Dugout Central about playing in the Venezuelan Winter League. An undrafted free agent signing out of Tufts University by the Red Sox, Newsom was traded to the Indians as the player to be named later in the Coco Crisp deal. See his career stats here.

A six-year old kid flipped me off. He might have been older; I’m a terrible judge of age just by sight alone. Nonetheless, a little kid went across the language barrier and let his little bird fly at me. Welcome to the rivalry of all rivalries in Venezuela: Leones versus Magallenes.

I heard it would be something special. It doesn’t matter where the game is held, what part of the season it is, or even the team’s records they kept telling me, it will be one of the biggest games of the year. After 15 games in Venezuela I had already been impressed with just about everything baseball related and this would turn out to be no exception.

The night before this crucial showdown our game was postponed for two hours by some of the heaviest rain I had ever seen. Somehow, they got the field ready and we then proceeded to play a five hour game complete with 16 different pitchers used over eight and half innings. I was not one of them, and despite our eventual blowout I was forced to sit on my first two terrible performances for another night. As the game wound down I realized that since the next night was the Magallenes game it was likely that I would not pitch then either. I was a little disappointed to think that I hadn’t performed well enough to have a role in such a big game, but I was still excited to see what all the hype was about.

Due to the length of the game the night before our manager, an American named Frank Kremblas, who is definitely a player’s guy, decided that we should just “show and go.” “Show and go” might be the three best words a player can hear. It means you get to the park as late as possible so you can just warm up and play the game. It’s usually reserved only for Sundays and the occasional night after a long road trip. Being that we were playing at the Magallenes place only two hours away from Caracas in Valencia, our buses pulled into the stadium parking lot a little over an hour before the game started.

What I saw was somewhat unexpected. Fans, literally thousands, were already there. As we passed the different parking lots fans were pointing to their jerseys, singing songs of their respective teams, moderately tailgating with beers, and showing an overall intensity you see much more at College Football game then before a baseball game in the States.
Don’t get me wrong, I’ve been to some Yankees versus Red Sox playoff games when I was in college. I’ve heard plenty about the Cubs versus Cardinals. But this was different. This was pure adrenaline, playoff atmosphere, two weeks into a winter league season. It was special right out of the gate.

As I put my stuff on and headed out to warm up the buzz was tangible in the stadium. A live band was playing out in center field flanked by a nearly full set of bleachers. Other then the two bullpens that were next to the respective foul poles, third base side being the home club Magallenes and the first base side being ours, the whole place was crawling with people. Vendors were already working hard selling everything they had from drinks to “taquenos” (the only bit of Mexican food down here that hasn’t lost much in translation).

Forty-five minutes to game time and the stadium was already over half full. I couldn’t imagine where all the people who had just been yelling at our buses and standing outside the gates were going to go. The air smelled just like an American ballpark, food and beer and that scent that you only get when a lot of people are packed together outdoors. Yet, beyond that, the sights were incredible. Flags were waving everywhere. Our team’s fans had showed up in droves. In fact, despite it being a Magallenes home game it appeared to be an almost split crowd as we started to warm up, except where I was.

I settled into my pre-game routine of playing catch just before the warning track on the right field side of the stadium. As I moved further and further away from my partner on the right field line the shouts from the bleachers became louder and louder. The closer I got to center field the more Magallenes fans in the bleachers were yelling at me. Nothing too negative but almost everything involved the word “Gringo” and perdido. Basically, they kept telling me that we were going to lose.

As my throwing program concluded I realized that throwing in the outfield might be the closest I was going to come to being a part of this rivalry tonight. While my name was on the active roster, so were ten other relief pitchers. We had a full pen and considering my performance I knew that unless we got blown out, which was unlikely considering the way we had been hitting and pitching, I was most likely a spectator with a good seat in the bullpen.

Twenty minutes later it was time to play ball. The place was now completely full with only a little patch in the left field bleachers showing any sign of space. They claimed the game was sold out two weeks before the season even began, and I really don’t doubt it. The energy hadn’t subsided at all as the first pitch was thrown and the place was rocking. The PA kept blaring the Magallenes custom charge song at any hint of a big pitch. The announcer knew exactly when to rally the home crowd for support. The first frame was scoreless.

One of the things I had noticed before the game was the names of the players on the Magallenes roster. Their starting line up had prospects like Elvis Andrus and Pablo Sandoval, respected former big leaguers like Edgardo Alfonzo and Richard Hidalgo and even Jay Gibbons, and finished with guys like Tony Gwynn Jr. and Wilkin Gonzalez. This team had some serious money behind it.

In the top of the second some small ball got us a quick run. The Magallenes answered with a home run by the one guy’s name I didn’t recognize on the line up card, a second baseman with last name of Paz. The second he hit the ball off our starter, J.R. Mathes, the place erupted like Times Square when the ball drops. J.R. was up two strikes on the next hitter before you could even hear the person next to you. The passion was overwhelming.

Then, as we had done every night for the past week, it was time for the Leones to show up. After picking up a run in the third, Mathes worked efficiently out of a couple of jams and we held a tenuous one run lead into the fifth. It would prove to be a dramatic inning. After a couple of hits and a walk, our clean up hitter Matt LaPorta hit a lazy ground ball just in front of the second base bag. Andrus, the slick fielding Rangers prospect, couldn’t decide what to do with the ball and when he finally decided on second base the runner had beaten the throw.

We now had a one run lead and our biggest Venezuelan bat, Jose Castillo, coming to the plate. Castillo didn’t disappoint. He hit the first pitch over the fence and nailed the railing off the bleachers. The Leones fans were so loud on the crack of the bat that no one could hear the ball hit the metal. The left fielder smartly picked the ball up and relayed it to second where Castillo was standing. They called it a double, but the damage was done, bases cleared, 6-1 Leones.

Two more innings and one a solo shot from Josh Kroeger, an outfielder who was with the Iowa Cubs this past year and could not be any hotter at the plate. We were cruising towards a victory. With a full pen I was hoping for a shot but knew it probably wasn’t even on the radar.

Until it was. After the bottom of seventh, and still leading 7-1, the bullpen coach gave me the sign. I had the bottom of the eighth. I’d be lying if I told you I didn’t get some butterflies right out of the gate. Here I was sitting on two terrible outings in the biggest game of the year thus far. 7-1 is a good lead but by no way an inevitable conclusion. Our manager was giving me a shot.

I took it. 1-2-3. I was surprisingly relaxed and confident. I couldn’t even hear the 25,000 plus or whatever the final attendance was. I struck out the first hitter, got Hidalgo to ground out, and battled back from a two nothing count to get Gibbons to pop out to right. I was on the board. I finally had helped the team. I remember coming off the mound and looking up and every Leones flag in the stadium seemed to be flying. The cheers and heckles were for me this time. My skin was tingling and I was doing everything I could to hide my excitement. I got to be a part of this incredible rivalry.

We held on, the gamed ended, our fans stayed and celebrated like it was our own home game and I felt energized. The rivalry was everything it was cracked up to be. The fans were intense, passionate, and knowledgeable, and the players played with their hearts. I did too. It was an amazing night and not one I am sure to forget for the rest of my days.

As I sat on the bus on the way back to Caracas, I realized that while I still have a long way to go and my ERA in Venezuela would win me an NBA scoring title, I had just accomplished something. Somehow the undrafted converted side-armer from Tufts University had been a part of one of the great rivalries in baseball. I don’t care where you go, Magallenes-Leones is one of the reasons baseball is such an incredible game.

I don’t think I deserved the chance I got, but I am sure glad I got it. I am still a long way from satisfied, but just this one night has been worth all of the struggles I have had so far in Venezuela. Hopefully now I can settle in and have more good nights and help this team I am growing so fond of.

Randy Newsom is a 26-year-old, side-arming closer in the Indians minor league organization who will be blogging for Dugout Central about playing in the Venezuelan Winter League. An undrafted free agent signing out of Tufts University by the Red Sox, Newsom was traded to the Indians as the player to be named later in the Coco Crisp deal. See his career stats here.

Rays Success Flows From Its Commitment To Its People

Ok, I have to get this out there while it is still fresh; the Tampa Bay Rays were the team they were this year because they have become a really solid organization top to bottom.

Over the past two years I have met a lot of people in the Rays organization, and I have to say that I am impressed not only with the commitment they have to player development but with their people on a whole. We have two of their coaches and a trainer down here in Venezuela and they were all flown from Caracas back to Tampa for the first two games of the World Series. They put them up, threw them parties, even flew in their spouses, and all and all let the whole organization know that they had a part in the big league’s club success this year.

Now I’m not saying other teams don’t do the same, but I just wanted everyone to be aware of their commitment to their own people.

The Rays took one of my favorite managers and really good baseball guy, Tim Bogar, out of AA and used him in a newly created position to help with the information they collected – not only on other teams but on their own Major League team. This sort of commitment just shows how far they have come from the team that routinely used to overpay for aging vets and throw money at money when it came to prospects. Yes, they have been the beneficiary of high draft picks, but they have also done some really good things and are in a great position to compete for a long time.

Meeting Great People in Venezuela

Along those lines, one of the things that makes Winter Ball so unique is the people you meet. Just like in the regular season you spend so much time with your teammates that you get to know people very quickly and on a much more intense level then you would in a regular 9-5 job. In Venezuela that intensity is even higher because all the Americans live in the same hotel, have the same daily routines and have to work together to help navigate some of the cultural and lifestyle differences of a foreign country. As I am sure it is for my Latino teammates in the States, you realize that you spend nearly all your days around people that you don’t necessarily pick out on your own. Luckily for me, both in Mexico last year and in Venezuela this year, I have a great set of both English speaking teammates and Spanish speaking teammates.

The other Americans down here are interesting group. We have a few top prospects like my Indians teammate Matt LaPorta, who is as good a person as he is a prospect. We have some people like me who are trying to move up the ladder a step at a time and are trying to face better competition. We also have guys like Josh Kroeger, a great hitter, who has had some big league time but just hasn’t been able to stick yet. Although, with his swing and the way he is hitting I think there is a good chance he finds a permanent spot on a Big League roster at some point in his career.

Some guys are quiet, some are louder (I am the guiltiest of this), some players can speak Spanish a bit, some can’t speak a lick. Everyone has a different story with different personalities, yet here we all are crossing paths trying to help one of the most celebrated franchises in Caribbean baseball win another title. We eat together, venture out (although not very far) together, play together and basically spend most of our day in each other’s company. Just like any social situation I am obviously closer to a few guys then some others, but I’ve been fortunate to get to know on a somewhat personal level all of my American teammates and most of my Venezuelan teammates. They have all added to this experience already.

Tough to Say Goodbye to Your Teammates

Speaking of my Venezuelan teammates, they are an interesting group themselves. We have some great prospects like Carlos Carrasco and Gregorio Petit. We have some more established big leaguers like Jose Castillo and Tony Armas Jr. And then we have some really good players who are either playing independent ball in the States or not playing anywhere at all. However, despite their roles in the States, everything changes down here.

We have a pitcher who has never made it out of A ball, yet he continues to get big outs in tight games down here. One of my favorite teammates, Jackson Melian, who I used to hate facing in the States when he played for the Tigers organization, was actually released by two different organizations this year. And here he is hitting the ball all over the yard and coming through time and time again in the clutch like he’s been in the Big Leagues for ten years.

Petit, an outfielder in the A’s organization, is almost fluent in English and has taught me a ton of useful words that you won’t find in your Spanish III textbooks in college.

As a fan, players can be just names on paper, or a title for a bunch of stats. But when you play, they are guys you root for and pull for. That’s why it’s difficult when the time comes to say goodbye. In the past couple of days, three Americans have been sent home because of slow starts. I can hardly believe I am not one of them. I don’t know whether it’s because of my last outing, for which I begged into the parallel league game for one day (basically their version of AAA down here) just to get some work, and pitched exactly how I expected to pitch when I came here. Five batters, five outs, two strikeouts, no walks, and I mixed my pitches the way I know I am capable of. It might just be blind luck too, but I feel very fortunate to be continuing this experience, at least for the time being.

The guys going home will be fine, but they were understandably disappointed to not get more of a chance. That’s how the game goes though. It’s a business down here too, and with a limited number of spots for foreign players, you have to produce or they will bring someone else in. Now, for me, it’s back to the business at hand. I like it here, and I would like to get more out of the experience, so it’s my turn to put up or shut up. Literally.

Randy Newsom is a 26-year-old, side-arming closer in the Indians minor league organization who will be blogging for Dugout Central about playing in the Venezuelan Winter League. An undrafted free agent signing out of Tufts University by the Red Sox, Newsom was traded to the Indians as the player to be named later in the Coco Crisp deal. See his career stats here.

My second outing was even worse then my first. I didn’t get any outs, and I ended up giving up three runs, one while I was in and two after I had left. However, I did pitch with my heart and after reflection I realize that I made some bad decisions that could have changed the outcome. I regret that I took my team out of a close game, but I did compete and the results just weren’t there. So despite the fact that I sit on Halloween themed statistics and that one more bad outing will probably lead to me being deported, it’s tough for me to get too negative.

I know my talent is not the issue. Once upon a time it was but experience has taught me that I have enough talent to accomplish what I want. I truly believe my stuff will play at any level. I just need to gain more consistency. A couple of years ago, my first after dropping down to sidearm, I went through an eerily similar slump. After some initial success at High-A as an emergency fill in, I was sent down to the Low-A South Atlantic League. I proceeded to start hot and then go into a tailspin of epic proportions. About seven or eight outings in a row I could not for the life of me get out of an inning without giving up a run.

In one memorable performance I actually was staring down the barrel of a nine-pitch, strike out the side inning, when I threw the ninth pitch and barely missed the corner for a ball. I got a little frustrated with the call and then let up a hit on a terrible pitch. I lost a little more focus and ended up giving up three runs, all earned, before getting pulled. After the game I cursed the fact that I was literally an inch, or at least an inch in the eyes of the man behind the plate, away from having an incredible outing. Instead I spent the night tossing and turning and listening to Phil Collins songs. However, if I would have just not reacted to the first ball call and kept my focus I probably would have still had a great inning. These things happen over the course of a career and you learn from them.

I had a coach tell me that as long as you believed that you could do what you wanted to do, you would always have a chance at doing just that. The past couple of years have shown that pitching coach was absolutely right. The key to getting through a slump is not prolonging it by dwelling on only the negative. After that season ended I went back to work, tweaked my delivery a little, and thanks to a manager and pitching coach who stuck up for me in spring training, I ended the year as the playoff MVP in the Carolina League. I’ll get through this slump and get hot again. Wash, rinse, dry, repeat.

Randy Newsom is a 26-year-old, side-arming closer in the Indians minor league organization who will be blogging for Dugout Central about playing in the Venezuelan Winter League. An undrafted free agent signing out of Tufts University by the Red Sox, Newsom was traded to the Indians as the player to be named later in the Coco Crisp deal. See his career stats here.

I received a really interesting email that I wanted to respond to in case there are others out there in a similar situation. Here is what Chris wrote:

First off I’d like to say I really enjoy reading your writing, as I have been following you since your Non-Prospect Diaries for Baseball America. I am a college baseball player who is currently an OF but I have realized that my best opportunity for success at the next level is as a pitcher and a sidearmer at that. I am writing this email because it is very hard to find people who know much about sidearm pitching and everything I have done is self taught. If it wouldn’t be too much trouble I would like to hear what you have to say about pitching sidearm (What are the most important things, drills you do, how you attack hitters, etc.) Also I would like to know what your stuff is like (pitchers, velo, etc.) Thank you so much, I really appreciate it and good luck in Venezuela this winter!! -Chris

Chris, thanks so much for the kind words and your questions. Before I answer your specific questions I need to dive into a little research I did on my own. I found out that Chris actually has understated himself; he was a .370 hitter on one of the better teams in a top tier Division I league last year. He also got on base at a ridiculous rate and had some speed (13 bags) to boot. Chris, while I realize that not getting drafted this year might have been frustrating and you know your situation a lot better then I do, I think if your senior year is a continuation of your junior year then you need to think about staying in the outfield. Not too many people can hit .370 at any level, much less a high caliber Division I league. If you keep working this off-season, add a little more weight to increase your pop a bit, you definitely fit the profile of that late bloomer who can surprise a scout or two and end up with a job in pro ball. I have played with a couple of guys who are now either in the big leagues or knocking on the door and had a similar career trajectory to yours while in college.

…. But if you really want to throw like a girl, let me be the first to help you out. Seriously, it’s not nearly as easy as it looks as I found out when I first started my conversion. So if you have started working on it and are seeing any success whatsoever then you have already cleared the first hurdle. However, I have to warn you that but for a few exceptions, most sidearm pitchers don’t make it to pro ball as sidearm pitchers. Here is my advice: work hard to get in the door as an outfielder or as a traditional pitcher. Then once you are in the door show them what you can do, bug people if you have to, as a sidearm pitcher.

In terms of the actual mechanics, you are right that very few people know how to coach it. Many coaches stay hands off for fear of screwing things up. The best advice I can give you is find what is comfortable and successful for you. Dropping down is almost certain to cut your velocity unless you are one of the rare guys like Pat Neshek of the Twins. Velocity, while scouts love it, actually doesn’t matter much for a lot of guys who drop down. I am just as effective if not more on the days I am sitting 81-82 as the days that I am 86-88 (and yes I have that much of a difference sometimes). It does however allow you to concentrate on movement and deception – a sidearmer’s two best friends.

My goal against every hitter I face is to get a quick ground ball. I don’t even want them to swing and miss because it gives them another pitch to adjust to the difference. My ego can handle the fact that I am not going to blow every batter away, and so I don’t try to. Instead I focus on throwing strikes in the lower half of the zone. Don’t concern yourself with the different sides of the plate at first; just try to repeat the same angle over and over. Throw off a mound as much as you can.

Make sure you aren’t overly sore or tight in any new areas, because this is a sign that you might be overstressing some underutilized muscles or tendons. It might take some time to build them up, but traditional shoulder exercises and building your arm up through throwing should take care of most issues.

Finally, enjoy it. I sometimes forget that I am playing a game and worry so much about mechanics and the little nuances that I forget how much fun pitching can be. It’s especially enjoyable when guys are pounding the ball into the ground and getting themselves out, but just competing should be enough. Focus on the process and the more you do it the more you’ll know whether you have it in you to continue you on as a sidearmer. Best of luck with that and your upcoming senior year. Let me know if there is anything else I can help with.

That’s all I have for now. We have our first game in “the biggest rivalry in South America” with the Magallenes this week and I promise to let you know how that goes. As always please feel free to send any questions or comments.

Randy Newsom is a 26-year-old, side-arming closer in the Indians minor league organization who will be blogging for Dugout Central about playing in the Venezuelan Winter League. An undrafted free agent signing out of Tufts University by the Red Sox, Newsom was traded to the Indians as the player to be named later in the Coco Crisp deal. See his career stats here.

Random things that you see at a Venezuelan Baseball Game that you never see at an American Game:

• Beers being sold for under a dollar (using the exchange rate).
• Those same beers being thrown high into the air by fans when the wave comes around to their section.
• Those same beers being thrown at the opposing team after they hit a three-run homer to break the game open in the eighth inning.
• 18,000 people staying put during a two and half hour rain delay with barely any cover from the rain. I would estimate less then 2,000 fans left between the beginning of the rain delay and when the game ended at 1:30 AM.
• Umpires having a five minute, fully heated argument with a manager and player and no one getting tossed.
• The field crew taking twenty minutes to roll the tarp out, get it on the field, and then turn it so it covers the whole field as monsoon like rain covers the stadium.
• Hundreds of fans rushing the field once the tarp is on for tarp slides. Ten minutes later, hundreds of wet and muddy fans, with the exception of one, running from the security guards with great success.
• One rather corpulent fan being escorted back to her seat after doing tarp slides because she was not able to a) run from the security or b) jump back over the gate that she used to get on to the field.
• 20,000 fans complaining in unison about a 1-0 pitch in the second inning of a Tuesday Night regular season game.
• Four pitching changes in one half of an inning. (I actually saw this in Mexico last year, and I am sure it has happened at least once some where in the extended history of the Major Leagues.) I would love to know what the record for that is.

Everything I just described happened in one game the other night. I just wanted to highlight how different the game is because a lot of people have asked for comparisons. It really isn’t comparable on a lot of levels because the competition is different. I can’t say any better or any worse because I haven’t been here nearly long enough to pass judgment. I do really enjoy everything here. From the style of play, to my teammates here whom I enjoy as much as my teammates in the States, to obviously the fans, I really am enjoying the entire game of baseball here in Venezuela. It’s fun again.

I’m running a little low on battery power here and construction in this hotel’s lobby has rendered all the outlets useless, but I did want to answer a few questions. I really appreciate all the questions and comments and hopefully you guys are enjoying reading about the experience as much as I enjoy trying to recount it.

First off, a quick shout out to my buddy Frank the Tank. He’s a longtime listener, first time caller here at Dugout Central. Hope all is well on the Turnpike Munson.

Second, a couple people have asked about the Henry Blanco situation. Henry Blanco, of the Cubs here in America, is a legend down here in Caracas. Now this is all hearsay because I’ve never met the man nor have I seen him play down here, but everything I’ve heard has been confirmed by multiple sources.

Blanco, even as a big leaguer, has a tradition of showing up every year right away and playing every inning of every game for the Leones de Caracas, my team. Last year, during a very down year for the legendary “Yankees of Venezuela”, Blanco butted heads with some of the managerial staff in Caracas. Some things were said, the press gave both sides plenty of attention, and at the end of the year the managerial staff parted ways with the team.

Now my understanding was that Blanco’s initial issues and problems were mostly with people that are no longer associated with Leones, but the whole situation left a bitter taste both in his mouth and the front office here. Blanco thought the Leones should have defended him more, and they felt that he should have blamed those who were making the comments. I think it is a shame because the Leones fans obviously love him, he obviously loves them back, and the front office has nothing but great things to say about him. That said, I guess the wrong bridges ended up burned on both ends and Henry is apparently going to play for a rival club this year.

Someone mentioned that it was the Venezuela equivalent of the “Manny Ramirez episode in Boston”. That’s blatantly false. Blanco, by all accounts, is a great guy, teammate, and person who plays every day as well as he can because he loves baseball and wants to win titles. I think Manny is the best hitter that I’ve seen in my lifetime, with only Pujols as a rival in my mind, but what happened in Boston was a travesty and sets baseball back even if it did give Boston one of the most underrated players in the game (Jason Bay). I do not blame either front office in either situation as it seems that there was very little either could do at the time. I wish that I could play with Blanco though, because I’ve heard that he is one of the best catchers Venezuela has ever produced.

I will try to give you some of the players I think are under the radar prospects when I get more of a feel for the league. Right now, I have a few teammates who I have seen impressive things from. Some of them are younger and have bright futures, others are older and probably aren’t considered prospects but deserve just as much love. It would be ridiculous for me to pass out my judgments of players based on only the few games I’ve seen thus far though. Yes, I fully understand the irony in that last statement, and hopefully others pick it up to.

Finally, I just want to say thanks to my best friend and girlfriend. Both of them probably won’t read this but thanks to them and my family I’ve had an incredible support system throughout my life and my career. They really do help me, even when I am on a different continent. I probably don’t tell them how much I appreciate it enough. LYL.

I’ll be back with more soon.

Randy Newsom is a 26-year-old, side-arming closer in the Indians minor league organization who will be blogging for Dugout Central about playing in the Venezuelan Winter League. An undrafted free agent signing out of Tufts University by the Red Sox, Newsom was traded to the Indians as the player to be named later in the Coco Crisp deal. See his career stats here.

I have always felt that my heart tells me what I can do and what I want to do, and my mind gives me reasons that it won’t work or the obstacles I will face. Up until this year I was able to virtually ignore my mind and play solely with my heart. Then something changed.

I figured early on in my career that I would either not have a job at this point or I would have willed myself to the Big Leagues. Neither has happened yet. In fact, as I have learned, neither is even in my control. Decisions are made in baseball for the good of teams and organizations, and I am a very small, yet maybe too overly vocal (for which I do not apologize but do send regret) piece of that process.

In spring training I felt like I had a great opportunity to start the season in AAA and eventually get to the Major Leagues. Through a litany of circumstance and at the fault of no one it didn’t happen. Our organization was stacked at the beginning of the year and despite a good previous year and a great spring I ended up back in AA. While I wasn’t extremely pleased with that outcome I did, as I had done many times throughout my career, challenge myself to press harder. So I cranked up my effort and my determination and, now looking back on it, it unfortunately worked. I went on the best run of my career, but in the process burned myself completely out. I lost my heart.

My mind started taking over and I began to list out all of the things I was doing wrong and all the reason I wouldn’t make it to the Big Leagues. I started to care what others would think of my performance. I questioned everything I did on the field. I started to pick at my own game. I would wonder what scouts would report on, what organizations would look for. Instead of just playing the game, enjoying the game, and competing the same way I had for the first four years of my professional career I began to worry. What if this and what if that. I completely lost my passion for the game and stopped enjoying it.

That worry changed me a lot and for the first time baseball became a job – a job that took me to a foreign country that I had never before dreamed of visiting. And my first outing in that new setting encompassed everything I had been doing wrong for the past couple of months. It couldn’t have been a worse or uglier start.

I got two outs, while giving up three runs, hitting a batter, and walking one for good measure. Even though we were ahead 18-6, I was cursing myself and worrying about the statistics and the future, giving no thought to what had just happened or why it had happened. I barely even noticed that after what I kept telling myself was a career ruining outing that many of the fans over our dugout were cheering me. Considering the passion of the fans here, I couldn’t believe it.

These are the same fans that show up hours before the game to catch a glimpse of the players before they get into the locker room. They line up for hours after to congratulate them on a game well played. They cheer every strike for their team and agonize over every call that is made against them. They wear their hearts on their sleeves and show more passion than I have ever seen out of spectators. So naturally, after an outing that made me cringe, I couldn’t help but wonder why I wasn’t hearing boos.

Only later, after three more hours of beating myself up, did I realize why they weren’t booing me. They might have booed in a close game, and they obviously weren’t pleased to have to wait through another pitching change, but they weren’t looking at the game the way I was. They didn’t see the box score in their head like I did. They were viewing it with their hearts while I was viewing it just with my mind. They had passion and enthusiasm that you can’t fake. To them statistics weren’t the end all be all tool that I have made the focus of my path to the big leagues. So after a night of berating myself and wondering if I would ever get back to having fun and competing the way I used to, I decided to take the point of view of one of those passionate fans and replay my outing.

What I saw was a pitcher who came in right off the bench after another pitcher got hurt. He inherited a 1-0 count in an 18-3 game and got a quick ground ball out to end an inning. He then went back out and got a two pitch out, had the clean-up hitter 0-2 and then nicked him with what looked to be a pitch from a different arm angle then he had been throwing from previously. He continued to battle with a good hitter and eventually walked him on two borderline pitches that left the crowd a little miffed. The next hitter popped a ball up perfectly between the second baseman and the right fielder. The next hitter broke his bat and hit a soft line drive that nicked the third baseman’s glove for another single. The final hitter fouled off three 0-2 pitches before sending another pop fly just over the head of second baseman. The manager came to take the pitcher out.

Never mind the statistics, I had a bad night. There was no excuse for my lack of focus and absence of passion. It also wasn’t the disaster that I kept telling myself it was. I was merely viewing the game from my mind. I was completely ignoring my heart. And that is what has gotten me into trouble. Even on the mound I was thinking about stats and the next step, and I lost focus on what I needed to do at that exact moment. I lost perspective.

Baseball is a game. Statistics are very useful part of analyzing the game, but they aren’t the full essence of the game. A game is something to be enjoyed. It is something that should involve the mind but also involve the heart. Between looking at those fans and getting some great fatherly advice, I realized that I have allowed myself to get unbalanced. At some point I let my mind control my heart.

I am confident that I can put this all into perspective, realize baseball is a merely the greatest game in the world, and continue to chase my dream. As far as I am concerned, the Venezuelan people have already made this trip well worth it. They helped me remember my own passion for the game. Hopefully I can do the same for them as this season goes on.

Randy Newsom is a 26-year-old, side-arming closer in the Indians minor league organization who will be blogging for Dugout Central about playing in the Venezuelan Winter League. An undrafted free agent signing out of Tufts University by the Red Sox, Newsom was traded to the Indians as the player to be named later in the Coco Crisp deal. See his career stats here.

Randy Newsom is a 26-year-old, side-arming closer in the Indians minor league organization who will be blogging for Dugout Central about playing in the Venezuelan Winter League. An undrafted free agent signing out of Tufts University by the Red Sox, Newsom was traded to the Indians as the player to be named later in the Coco Crisp deal. See his career stats here.

———-

Cincinnati to Chattanooga to Atlanta to Miami to Caracas. It actually sounds like the story of my life, moving from one city to the next trying to move up the ladder and fulfill my dreams of winning a World Series. Except, this time, this was the route that I took to meet my new team, los Leones de Caracas, in the Venezuelan Winter League. What started off as a somewhat manageable journey from Cincinnati to Atlanta to Caracas flight had two unintended stop offs, complete with a night spent at the lovely terminal bench outside of gate 23 at Miami International Airport.

And as I drifted in and out of sleep on that terminal bench I kept telling myself that this was just a coincidence and not an omen for my first experience in South America. I once again had to remind myself of this when I arrived in Caracas and my bags didn’t show up. I actually had a quick thought that I might be getting Punk’d, but only famous Hollywood types are so lucky to have that honor.

So here I sit on my laptop in the lobby of an American hotel chain in the middle of a mall in the capital of Venezuela, in my only pair of clothes, trying to explain the reasons I have for coming here this winter.

Although I might have made it sound about as much fun as a root canal on Christmas Eve getting down here, I am very lucky to have the opportunity. This league has some of the best players in the world playing here. The league is steeped in unbelievable tradition and history, and the fans are as intense, and possibly crazier, then all those Chicagoans who have to habitually curse a goat every October. For a player like me, a former undrafted free agent, player to be named later, 26-year-old, side-armer, this a great opportunity for me to face big league hitters and help prove that I am ready for the Major Leagues. It is also a chance to continue playing the game I love in an environment that is well outside my comfort zone.

The first question everyone asked me before I left was why. Why go to Venezuela? It’s not an easy answer, but not because it was a hard decision. As I already explained, this is an incredible opportunity. However, in the end I have three main things that I am trying to accomplish.

I am going to start with the least pure and most selfish reason I have: money. I’m still on my original contract that I signed right out of college, and since there was no bonus on my contract, I don’t make a ton of money playing baseball in the United States. In fact, I actually qualified for section 8 housing, along with almost all my teammates, this year in Akron, Ohio. As such, Venezuela and the two other major Winter Leagues (Mexican Pacific and Dominican), are a great opportunity for players to supplement their income. Some places pay their players in cash but here in Venezuela they actually pay the taxes for me on the money I earn and then wire it to my American bank account. Either way, I probably wouldn’t have come down here without such financial incentives.

Secondly, and more important I hope, is the experience. I still consider myself a young man, although my girlfriend continues to remind me that I am now on the back half of my twenties, and this is the perfect time for me to travel and experience another culture. I eventually hope to have a hand in helping make the world a better place and feel that any experience that broadens my horizons now will only help me later in life. I also truly believe that I need to become fluent in Spanish, and there is no better way to learn a language then to be immersed in it, no matter what those Rosetta Stone commercials say. During the season in the United States I quite often turn into a tunnel vision type that loses all perspective and starts believing that the only thing in life is making it to the next level. It’s a lot tougher to lose perspective when you are living in a different environment with many people living in poverty and many of the luxuries you considered necessities are being taken away.

The third reason and probably the most important in my own mind is the competition. In Caracas, the fans are crazy and the games are intense. While I have only heard second-hand accounts at this point, every night is apparently a playoff atmosphere. The rivalry between my team, the Leones, and the Magellenes is supposed to be more hotly contested then the Red Sox-Yankees rivalry. If that is even close to true, then I am in the right place, because I love intensity and can’t wait for the games to begin. The chance to challenge myself even further as a pitcher in an atmosphere such as this was just too much to pass up. I am excited to face the many big league players and top prospects on their own country’s soil and hopefully prove to my organization and others that I am ready to face the best of the best on my own country’s soil.

Finally, my last point of this post, deals with the other question I was inevitably asked before I left. “Isn’t it dangerous down there and don’t they hate Americans”? And the truth is, as I have already found out from our security briefings, that it can be dangerous here. We have a very good and surprisingly big security team in charge of protecting not only the American players but also the other Venezuelans. So far the security team has been absolutely outstanding showing us the ropes and even helping me try to track down my lost baggage.

As for Venezuela, the country itself is quite beautiful in many places and from what I’ve seen so far most of the people are extremely nice and even accommodating to an obvious American with a limited Spanish vocabulary. As for the hating Americans question, I will touch on this more in a later post but it appears that the majority of these claims are based off of only the minority of Venezuelan people. The only people that seem to dislike Americans are those who help protect the power of the mostly unrespected faux-president. They are also the only people that get significant news coverage as well. Like I said, I will comment more on this later as I learn more about the situation every day.

So that’s it for now. The adjustment period is almost over and games begin in a couple of days. I will post some shorter entries later this week talking about “pre-season training” and opening day. If you have any comments or questions I would love to hear them.

Randy can be reached at writers@dugoutcentral.com.

The last in our four-part series handing out mid-season awards.

Steve Caimano

Most Disappointing AL team: Cleveland Indians. Yes, Detroit was a popular pick to win this division and has struggled as well, but the Indians were co-favorites and they’re done. The only reason to go to Jacobs Field this summer will be to see if C.C. Sabathia can continue to string together impressive outings to drive up the package of players Cleveland gets for him at the trading deadline. (Note: Obviously, this was written before the trade. There is no longer any reason to go.)

Most Disappointing NL team: San Diego Padres. My preseason pick to win the division. I thought they had enough pitching to overcome a shaky offense. I was wrong. With the exception of the underappreciated Adrian Gonzalez this is a bad offensive team. The old “playing in a pitcher’s park” excuse doesn’t come close to explaining the .248 team batting average and .383 team slugging percentage.

Bill Chuck

AL: Seattle Mariners. The Cleveland Indians are contenders for this “title,” but there is no question in my mind the pitiful performance of the Seattle Mariners makes them the most disappointing team. The Tigers are disappointing but coming back, and the Indians are disappointing but may end of on the upside of .500. The Mariners, on the other hand, have fired their GM and manager and are on their way to becoming the first $100 million, 100 loss team.

NL: The entire NL West. The New York Mets have to be contenders here, but I think they’re still in position to make a run for the post-season. San Diego is miserable. Colorado is miserable. San Francisco is miserable. The Dodgers are not quite mediocre, and the Diamondbacks are simply mediocre. Bottom line? The NL West is one big disappointment.

Doug Bird

AL: Cleveland has been bad but Seattle has been hopeless. Teams can’t wait to play the Mariners. Last season gave them hope and the complete collapse of the team caught most people by surprise. The Erik Bedard trade quickly turned sour and the hoped for turnaround of Beltre and Sexton never happened. They are now desperately trying to trade Bedard (rumor has it that he’s not mentally tough enough for a contending team), and this team is about to be gutted from the front office down. It’s going to be a long second half in Seattle.

NL: I’d like to pick the entire western division but being limited to one team, and despite the hopelessly inept San Diego Padres (they shouldn’t have won the division the last two seasons with that roster), my pick has to be the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers hired legendary manager Joe Torre to find the right mixture of experience and youth and guide this team to the playoffs. Torre hasn’t been able to find the right mix, or any mix, and the signing of Andruw Jones has proven to be a multi-million dollar epic mistake. Brad Penny and company haven’t done the job and without Rafael Furcal, the offense hasn’t been there. The Dodgers have the talent to run away with this division yet are six games under .500.

Jason Cook

AL: Seattle Mariners. In all reality, the Tigers should be here, as they were predicted by many (myself included) to go deep in the playoffs and run away with the division. But they currently stand at 46-46 – still very much in the hunt. The Mariners were a trendy wild card pick and looked to challenge the Angels for the West crown. They have a 36-57 record (worst in MLB), Bedard has been a disappointment and the offense stinks. They’ve cleaned the entire management crew. Little is going right in the Emerald City.

NL: Colorado Rockies. This is not how World Series runner-up Colorado saw this season going. In a very winnable division they are 39-55 – nine games out of first. The pitching has been suspect, the offense has not been nearly as explosive as last season and trade rumors are surfacing. It’s going to take more than another 11-game winning streak for this team to make the playoffs.

Joe De Caro

AL: Detroit Tigers. They were the preseason favorites to win the World Series, and while you could easily pick the Cleveland Indians here too, they didn’t make a blockbuster trade to acquire Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera.

NL: New York Mets. When you finish the season one game short of making the post season and then add arguably the best pitcher in the game in Johan Santana, you shouldn’t be in 3rd place in your division.

John Quemere

AL: Detroit Tigers. A great team and then you add one of the best hitters in baseball plus a young pitcher who is only three years removed from a Cy Young caliber season. Most pundits picked them to go to the World Series. On the bright side they play in the AL Central. Don’t be surprised if they make a move during the second half and compete for the division.

NL: Los Angeles Dodgers. Some fans might pick the Mets, but I thought they had problems coming into this year with their old team and unbalanced line-up. The Dodgers on the other hand were full of promise and hope with their new center fielder Andruw Jones and new manager Joe Torre. They’ve been a disappointment all around, and it seems likely that they will be out of the pennant race by the end of July.

Shaun Payne

AL: New York Yankees. Anything under first or second place is disappointing to Yankees fans. This was supposed to be the year that all the Yankees young pitching came through to lead them back to first place over the Red Sox. So far it hasn’t happened and they are stuck behind the Rays.

NL: San Diego Padres. The Padres have been a contender every season since they moved into Petco Park. This season 100 losses looks like a possibility. Their offense has been terrible. They are in the middle of the pack in runs and ERA, though they play in one of if not the best pitcher’s parks.

In the second part of our mid-season award series, our staff selects their Mid-Season Cy Young winners. On Tuesday we discussed MVPs.

Well, I’d like to tell you that we had the same kind of wide-ranging opinions on this award that we had on the MVP but I’d be lying. Edinson Volquez is the unanimous choice in the National League and Cliff Lee got all but one vote in the American (more on the lone holdout later).

Neither of those choices is even remotely controversial, both in light of their performance and the tide of public opinion.

Volquez started the year as either the overlooked half of the Josh Hamilton trade or the lesser of the two young arms in the Reds rotation. It’s only taken half a season for him to even out the deal and pass Johnny Cueto. That’ll happen when you go 11-3 with a 2.36 ERA. That ERA is good for a gaudy 190 ERA+ which, if it holds up the rest of the way, is the 57th best mark of all-time. That’s some good pitching. The only slightly negative words heard from the staff about Edinson were about his high walk rate and the possibility that pitching for Dusty Baker will prove as dangerous to his health as it was for Mark Prior and Kerry Wood.

What surprises me about the unanimous acclimation for Volquez is that there’s no shortage of other worthy candidates. Tim Lincecum is 10-1 with a 2.49 ERA and a much better K/BB ratio than Volquez. If Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) is your thing, Lincecum leads the NL with a 2.72 mark while Volquez is third at 3.12. Who’s second, you ask? Well that would be another guy who wouldn’t be a bad choice for the Mid-Season Cy: Dan Haren. He had a bit of a rough patch at the beginning of May, but he’s still posted an 8-5 record with a 2.83 ERA. He might be overlooked a bit because his won-lost record doesn’t match his stats, or the other two choices, but he’s still pitched just about as effectively. Last but not least, Brandon Webb’s recent struggles have hindered what looked to be a runaway campaign early in the year. Counting him out prematurely would probably be a bad idea.

The choice of Lee in the AL isn’t quite as much a surprise. He’s second in wins at 11-3 and third in ERA at 2.43, which are the stats that catch people’s eye the easiest. Perhaps most importantly he is first in FIP with a 2.40 mark by a large margin over second place John Danks. Lee is also a good “story” guy since he was so bad last year that he got sent down to the minors. It looks like he fixed his problems and the biggest question mark as to his ability to win the award at the end of the year is the possibility that the Indians collapse will adversely affect his record.

There was one holdout amongst the voters for this award as John Quemere opted for the ageless wonder in the Yankees bullpen, Mariano Rivera. John correctly points out that Mariano has been essentially unhittable so far. Yes, he has 23 saves and a 1.12 ERA, but his most impressive stats are that he’s allowed all of 23 hits, and 26 total base runners, in 40 1/3 innings. His 0.645 WHIP would be his career best mark by two and a half percentage points, which is particularly impressive when you consider how high he’s set the bar for himself.

There are some other pitchers we should keep our eye on during the second half. Joe Saunders leads the AL in victories with 12 and his ERA is excellent at 3.04. Unfortunately, his peripherals aren’t nearly as good as some of the other top pitchers which leads to a FIP of 4.34 and concerns that rougher waters are ahead. Justin Duchscherer leads the league with a 1.96 ERA, which seems ridiculously low for the AL. But he’s another guy whose FIP (3.31) is pretty far out of line with his ERA. John Danks is quietly having an excellent year for the White Sox, but his 6-4 record hurts his candidacy. If you’re looking for a darkhorse candidate then look no further than Saunders’ teammate, John Lackey. He got a late start on the year due to injury, but he’s been great in ten games so far and might make a late run at the award.

Tomorrow we’ll bring you the most surprising teams in each league.

At first glance I thought the Milwaukee Brewers made a grave mistake in trading for C.C. Sabathia, basically a rental for 3 months plus the possible postseason. It’s almost a given Sabathia will test free agency this off season, hoping to reap Johan Santana like money from the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox. But, after seeing what the Brewers gave up – AA stud OF/1B Matt LaPorta (last year’s first round pick) and three no names, it appears that Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin got the best of Cleveland GM Mark Shapiro.

Sabathia brings a wealth of experience and ability to a Brewers team starved for a second top starter behind ace Ben Sheets. RH Sheets (10-2, 2.77), basically having his first non injury season in four years, and lefty Manny Parra (8-2, 3.69) form a nice 1-2 already, but by adding Sabathia, the Brewers have three top pitchers who they can throw in an important series. Somehow Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan, two aging also-rans, as well as converted reliever Seth McClung, don’t inspire faith in Milwaukee.

While Sabathia’s record of 6-8 is not imposing, he has received little run support from the hitting starved Tribe and has fastened a 5-3 record in his last eight decisions, including two complete game shutouts. Since his first four starts in April when he was 0-3 with a 13.50 ERA, Sabathia has a glistening 2.17 ERA his 14 starts. With the Brewers hot hitting attack behind him, if Sabathia continues to pitch at his current level, he could conceivably win 10-12 games over 14-16 starts.

The Indians should have received more for Sabathia as there were reports of up to four teams interested in the talented, but bulky, left handed starter. The Dodgers could have used another starter because Brad Penny is still out, while the Phillies and Cubs wanted starting pitching help, too.

These extra teams involved plus the fact that everyone knew Milwaukee was eager to make a quick deal should have cost the Brewers a bundle of major league ready hitting prospects – something the Indians sorely needed.

But, while Melvin kept hearing that teams were interested in LaPorta plus shortstop Alcides Escobar, 3B Mat Gamel or C Angel Solome, all of whom are at Double AA Huntsville, Melvin stuck to keeping his other top prospects. He packaged Zach Jackson, a AAA pitcher with some major league experience (2-2, 5.40 in 8 games) and Single A pitcher Rob Bryson and High A third baseman Taylor Greene. While Greene (the Brewers’ 2007 minor league POY) is hitting for .298/10/54 at Brevard County, his path is blocked by the formidable Gamel, blistering the ball for .374/15/75 with a 1.056 OPS a level higher.

By keeping all his top prospects other than LaPorta, Melvin secured a bright future for the Brewers. The Brew Crew already has a talent loaded roster of homegrown hitters, but all are coming due soon for arbitration and free agency. Those positions the Brewers will need to fill in the next several years, such as third base, catcher and second base will be filled by the prospects Melvin retained. This Sabathia trade is also great for Prince Fielder. With the trading of LaPorta, a likely Fielder replacement, Prince’s big contract day could arrive sooner than expected, especially if Milwaukee does not retain Sheets and/or Sabathia. Everybody is now happy in Brewerland!

If Sabathia moves on to greener pastures, the Brewers will inherit two draft picks –a first rounder and a first round supplemental pick. Coupled with the picks they’ll receive if Sheets decides to move and their own pick, they could have five first found picks next year.

Seeing Sabathia in another uniform won’t be all that bad for Milwaukee, especially if Sabathia helps them to the playoffs. Based on Milwaukee’s recent draft history, those two picks could turn out better than LaPorta and three minor prospects.

Last year’s deadline deals did not turn out as expected as the Atlanta Braves obtained Mark Teixeira and the Boston Red Sox got Eric Gagne from the Texas Rangers. Neither player helped their team over the hump as the Braves faded and Gagne did all he could to ruin the BoSox season.

Most trade deadline deals that work out for the obtainer usually are lower-ended in nature, such as Aaron Boone to the Yankees in 2003, Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mientkiewicz to the Red Sox in 2004 and Jeff Weaver to the St. Louis Cardinals in 2006.

This big name trade will work out for the Milwaukee Brewers – in a very big way.

On the day when Milwaukee took over the Wild Card lead by percentage points over the Cardinals, the addition of C.C. Sabathia to the Brewers turns the balance of power in the National League towards Milwaukee. With their proven lineup of hitters and now a trio of top starters, Milwaukee will coast to the playoffs and be tough to beat in a short series.

I think someone in the Indians’ organization is screwing with me. There can be no other explanation. I woke this morning to find that, on the heel s of signing space-wasters Jason Tyner then Jorge Velandia and Todd Linden, mighty Mark Shapiro has signed ultimate journeyman catcher Sal Fasano.

I had vowed to write some more positive articles, for fear of earning the label of Mr. Negativity. But I’m forced to stay on the Dark Side when Cleveland makes stupid moves like these. So here goes: Cleveland continues to show they can’t develop their own players. Something is broken.

It’s not that the trade for Sal Fasano is a bad one. After all, the Indians have a need for catching help now that Victor Martinez is out for an extended period.

The problem is that the Indians apparently feel they don’t already have someone in their minor league system capable of producing Fasano-like results, which offensively is something around .219/.293/.394 in 120 or so at bats over the season.

How can this be? How can the Indians not have one prospect developed enough to play two games a week for the next six weeks – or not have a veteran insurance catcher at AAA. That is, after all, what AAA is for, at least for contending teams.

Not having internal catching depth is like your local Starbucks having just one person trained on ordering coffee. It’s a pretty important function, so you need to have redundancy within your organization. I guess the Indians didn’t get that memo.

The White Sox seem to be all about their manager, at least as far as the media is concerned. Almost on a daily basis we are treated to another Ozzie rant as he has criticized the cross town rival Cubs and their fans, his own GM Kenny Williams, most of his players and the media. He would yell at a puppy on his day off. It’s becoming more and more apparent that there is a method to his madness: take the pressure off the players. The season is long and the pressure in a sports mad town like Chicago can be crippling, especially when your team is struggling.

The White Sox are in first place in what was predicted to be perhaps baseball’s strongest division but so far this season has been one of mediocrity. The starting pitching has been unexpectedly rock solid considering how bad Mark Buehrle has been, as youngsters John Danks and Gavin Floyd have been much better than hoped for. Javier Vasquez has been solid and Jose Contreras seems finally injury free. Closer Bobby Jenks hasn’t been the power strikeout closer we’ve seen over the past couple of years but has 15 saves and an ERA of 2.05. The middle relief has been used more than manager Guillen would like, but it too has been solid.

So far it’s been the lack of clutch hitting and offensive fundamentals, (failure to move runners over or get them in from third with less than two out), that has hurt the offense. Jim Thome’s age seems to be catching up with him as pitchers around the league pound him inside. He’s either unwilling or unable to adjust. Orlando Cabrera is having his worst season both defensively and at the plate (when he’s not arguing with official scorers or knocking management), and Nick Swisher and Paul Konerko have been unproductive. Joe Crede’s back has held up and though he’s making too many errors, his bat has been one the few productive parts of the batting order. Off season trade acquisition Carlos Quentin and playing in a very weak division have been the saviors of this team.

The Twins lost Johan Santana and Tori Hunter this past off season and made a big trade with Tampa Bay, giving up Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett and getting Delmon Young. They did keep closer Joe Nathan, ending the notion (at least for now) that the trading of Santana was the beginning of a fire sale. The main bounty received for Santana, Carlos Gomez, has shown tremendous speed in center and on the bases (he recently scored from second on a sacrifice fly to center), but Young has been just okay in left and at the plate. The biggest concern offensively for the Twins is their brutal lack of power. Joe Mauer has hit only two and Young has none! Justin Morneau leads the team with ten while Jason Kubel is second with six. There hasn’t been much in the way of doubles either with only three players in double figures. Alexi Casilla has surprised and Matt Tolbert has taken over for the .189 hitting Adam Everett at shortstop. The Twins have had to scrap and claw to score runs thus far in a park that is a good one for hitters. Closer Joe Nathan has been his usual strikeout closer – one of baseball’s best.

The loss of middle reliever Pat Neshek will be difficult to overcome. The off season hope that Francisco Liriano could come back from major arm surgery and make up for the loss of Santana has thus far proven to be false, and Nick Blackburn has emerged as the leader of the starters. Livan Hernandez, on the comeback trail, looked good early, but now the league is beginning to catch up to him. Glen Perkins has helped this often patched together rotation, while Biff Bonser has been ineffective. Manager Ron Gardenhire has had to mix and match all season long.

The Tigers have played so poorly in all aspects of the game that there is even talk that manager Jim Leyland’s job might be in jeopardy if their struggles continue. Detroit added star third baseman Miguel Cabrera over the winter, but he was so bad at third that Leyland moved him to first base. He hasn’t been much better there, and they had to move Carlos Guillen to third to replace him. The Tigers knew going in that their bullpen was potentially a problem because of off season injuries but couldn’t have foreseen the collapse of their starters or a lack of offence. The injury to leadoff hitter and sparkplug Curtis Granderson was blamed for the terrible start by the Tigers. The team is playing lackluster baseball and seems to be standing around hoping something will get them going.

Only Miguel Ordonez, Carlos Guillen and Placido Polanco have done much of anything, and Cabrera has only eight home runs. There’s been little clutch hitting, poor fundamentals offensively and on defense and mental lapses. As bad as the hitting has been, the pitching has been worse, especially the starters. Justin Verlander, Kenny Rogers and Nate Robertson have been killing the team and Jeremy Bonderman hasn’t been much better. Despite the out of necessity overuse of the bullpen, Aquilino Lopez and Bobby Seay have been good. Detroit had better hope that this season will turn out to be just a bump in the road, or it could be a long few years ahead for this team that just three years ago was finally turning things around.

The Indians pitching has been generally good, at times even brilliant. Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez and company have not. Cleveland has scored three runs or less in 30 of their 54 games. Everyone is wondering where Hafner has been the last season and a half, and there are whispers that he might be one of those players who loses it all at once. Martinez has been bothered all season by a sore hamstring, perhaps explaining his zero home runs this season. That’s not good, especially from your cleanup hitter. Ben Francisco is hitting and Grady Sizemore has been okay. Asdrubal Cabrera has been hit hard by the sophomore jinx, (sent to Triple A June 9th), Jhonny Peralta has been home runs or nothing and Ryan Garko has been barely average and Casey Blake bad.

Pitching has saved the Indians so far, and Cliff Lee has been one of the more pleasant surprises of the season. He’s 9-1 and hasn’t allowed much of anything. Ace C.C. Sabathia, after a rough couple of initial starts, has been red hot. Jake Westbrook was put on the DL recently and what looked like nothing to be too concerned about now seems far more serious. Francisco Carmona is proving that last season huge breakout for him wasn’t entirely a fluke, although I suspect he’s been more lucky than good. He has fifteen more walks than strikeouts this season, and that will catch up to him soon. Neither Joe Borowski nor Rafael Betancourt has been any good as closers, and manager Eric Wedge’s search for a closer continues.

The Royals are young and prone to long losing streaks and much frustration. I’m still a bit confused by the choice of Trey Hillman as manager (probably my low opinion of Japanese baseball), but he is proving to be patient with this young team and the pitching staff seems to be coming along. The Gil Meche signing has proven to be an astute one, although his stats aren’t impressive so far. Zack Greinke has overcome his fears, Brian Bannister has been a pleasant surprise and number one pick and rookie Luke Hochevar has been okay. Throwing young starters into the proverbial meat grinder will either toughen them mentally and give them valuable experience for when the Royals are again (hopefully) competitive, or it will strip them of their confidence.

The Royals’ defense is poor and their hitting isn’t much better. Hillman has stood behind his players through the worst of times (eleven game losing streak) and is laying the groundwork for the future with a perhaps unrealistic goal of contention in 2010. Joakim Soria has been one of baseball’s best closers and the trade for Kyle Davies has looked good. The Hideo Nomo and Brent Tomko experiments are proving to be a disaster – and are an example that Royals management hasn’t completely gotten over their incompetent ways of the past 20 years.

Alex Gordon has yet to break out after almost a major league season and a half, but he is slowly improving. Kansas City needs Gordon to find his potential soon both from a public relations standpoint and a won lost standpoint. Hopes were/are that he will soon be a player in the mold and with the impact of the Reds’ Jay Bruce. Billy Butler was for some reason blamed for the team’s lack of power and was sent down, (he wasn’t tearing up the league but he wasn’t alone), and short stop Tony Pena seems to have lost his starting job by hitting only .154. Jose Guillen, after blasting his team mates for their poor play, has begun to hit and Mark Grudzielanek has been his typical veteran presence self. The Royals still have too many spare part players out on the field every day. The rest of the league can’t wait to play them. They are as good as the Tigers, and in many seasons that would be cause for excitement in Kansas City. Just not in 2008.

What’s Going on With Miguel Cabrera, Vlad Guerrero and C.C. Sabathia?

Miguel Cabrera isn’t having the year that his fantasy owners wanted. He’s slugging just .453 after being at .568 and .565 the past two years. But if you’re in a keeper league, there’s no reason to panic. Ride it out. His struggles are understandable considering:

• He’s playing in a new league and doesn’t yet know the pitchers. He’ll make the proper adjustments soon enough.
• The Tigers haven’t played well, and Cabrera is probably pressing some to make up for the offensive woes of Gary Sheffield, Curtis Granderson and to a lesser extent Ivan Rodriguez.
• Signing the big contract and the pressure that comes with the enhance expectations probably means Cabrera is pressing even more.

Recommendation: Hold/Buy. If you’re thinking of trading Cabrera, you’ll probably only get offers from owners looking to buy cheap. No sense in doing that, especially in keeper leagues. Cabrera is just 25 and has a lot of talent. After he adjusts to the new league, his numbers should be back to where they were in Florida, though his home run count may be a tad lower due to the effects of playing at Comerica Park. Of course, if someone else owns Cabrera, see what you can get him for.

**********

Vlad Guerrero, like Miguel Cabrera, is disappointing fantasy owners. He’s slugging just .460 – well below his career average of .575. So what’s going on?

1. Although he is a prolific bad ball hitter, Guerrero is chasing too many pitches out of the zone – even for him. It looks like he’s trying too hard to make things happen.
2. He’s been battling nagging injuries throughout the season, and his body isn’t doing what he wants it to; that again makes a player press too much.
3. He misses the injured Chone Figgins, the Angels’ sparkplug, who’s played just once since May 3rd.

Recommendation: Hold/Buy. If Guerrero had struggled last year, maybe his early problems this year would be indicative of a trend. But he didn’t struggle last year – he finished third in AL MVP voting. Once he gets Figgins back in front of him and when some of the nagging injuries heal, he’ll be fine. And if the injuries don’t heal, he’ll find a way to come close to his normal numbers; he’s a hard worker and will do whatever it takes to succeed. Expect Guerrero to end up close to his normal numbers: 30 home runs, 120 RBIs and a .300+ batting average.

**********

With his terrible start this year – his free agency walk year – C.C. Sabathia has probably cost himself a good amount of change. But that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t shy from acquiring him on the cheap, or semi-cheap. Yes, he has a 4.34 ERA – up from 3.22 and 3.21 the previous two years. Yes, his walk rate has doubled (2.8 per nine innings versus 1.4 a year ago). But throw out his first four starts, after which his ERA stood at a terrible 13.50, and over the past 10 starts his ERA has been 2.09 and his walk rate has been 1.7/nine innings. He’s just 4-5 over those starts, but that’s a function of the Indians offense, not Sabathia. In other words, Sabathia is pitching like Sabathia.

Recommendation: A Big Hold if you already own him, and a “You Can Give it The Old College Try” Buy. But after his recent performance, including his shutout over the Twins last night, it’s going to be tough to pry him away from the owner that’s still steaming over Sabathia’s early attack on the team ERA.

Willie Fraser was California’s first round pick (15th overall) in the 1985 draft. He pitched eight years in the Majors, for the Angels, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Marlins and Expos, and three in Japan with the Orix Blue Wave. He was part of Orix’s 1996 championship team. Willie played professionally for 15 years and never was on the disabled list. Since his playing days he has been a scout and consultant. Have a question for Willie? Email him at writers@dugoutcentral.com.

Chris Donnels also contributed to this report.

A couple of weeks ago I wrote an article criticizing the Cleveland Indians for calling up outfielder Jason Tyner – a waste of a roster spot unless rosters have been expanded and a contending team has a need for a defensive-oriented backup outfielder.

But, hey, anyone can make a mistake or two, right? The well-run Red Sox signed J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo. The Diamondbacks gave up on Carlos Quentin a year too early. The Braves traded for Mark Teixeira. Stuff happens.

But when you see a team make the same mistakes again and again – and in a short period of time -  you have to wonder if something is broken. Thus, I give you three more recent moves that should make us question the soundness of the Indians’ organization:

1. Jason Tyner

What, you say? I already covered this. Yes, I did. Here’s what I said on May 19th:

Tyner has been one of the worst offensive players in the past 20 years. He has a career .275 batting average, which isn’t terrible, until you consider that he’s coupled that with a complete dearth of power (41 doubles, 11 triples and one home run in 1,358 at bats). His career slugging percentage is .323. To put this further in perspective, consider that if Tyner played in 162 games, his line would be 62 runs, 0 home runs and 35 RBIs.

I’m bringing this up again because Tyner lasted two at-bats before the Indians sent him back to Buffalo. Cleveland, if you’re going to keep an unproductive player in your system and feel there is value in promoting him to the majors, why turn around and send him back two at bats later? What’s the plan? Is there a plan? You don’t have anyone on the current roster capable of playing half a game for you in the outfield? You don’t have an outfield prospect who could do this?

2. Jorge Velandia

As if to prove that they really had a plan behind signing Tyner, the Indians went out and signed the one player that makes Tyner look like Albert Pujols – Mr. Jorge Velandia. When I read about this May 26th transaction, I had visions of a General Motors Vice President saying, “the hell with gas prices, let’s build a bigger SUV.”

Who is Velandia? Let me use the words of the Indians’ website, which tried to put the best spin on the signing:

Velandia, 33, played 28 games for Triple-A Syracuse, a Blue Jays affiliate, and batted .287 (27-for-94) with three homers and 12 RBIs. He also appeared in two games with the Jays, including a start in Game 2 of a doubleheader at Progressive Field on May 12. Velandia has played in 166 big league games with the Padres, A’s, Mets, Rays and Jays, batting .182.

Yikes. It’s never good when your highlight is starting a game. His career major league line is .182/.268/.263, with an OPS+ of 41. Velandia makes me wish Baseball-Reference.com had a “dissimilar batters” section.

Why this is a bad signing:

1. He offers almost no major league value. He can’t hit at the major league level, and is only capable of playing second in the majors – he has below average range at short. Like Tyner, Velandia’s role is strictly for a team headed to the playoffs that needs a defensive replacement at second. And even then a contender should be able to find someone better.
2. He’s wasting a spot in the minors! If Velandia gets at bats in the minors (and he’s gotten 10 so far at AAA), this means that the Indians either are taking at bats away from a second base prospect or they don’t have a prospect to take at bats away. The former means they’re obtuse; the latter means they’re unlucky or incompetent. Neither reflects well upon the organization.

3. Todd Linden

But wait, there’s more!

On the same day the Indians signed Velandia, they also inked Todd Linden and assigned him to Buffalo. The outfielder had a monster 2005 for AAA Fresno as a 25-year-old: 30 home runs and 92 RBIs – in 340 at bats – with averages of .321/.437/.682. Unfortunately for Linden and Indians’ fans, he hasn’t come close to this production in the majors. Over 502 career at bats, Linden has 8 home runs and 36 RBIs, and averages of .231/.303/.335. Turning 28 at the end of the month, Linden is no longer a prospect.

So what’s the plan for Linden if he can’t produce in the majors now and is no longer a prospect? Hopefully they’ll sell him to a Japanese team. Otherwise, they’re just wasting more space in the minors.

**********

It wasn’t the intent of this article to review the Indians’ minor league system, but I’d be remiss in not pointing out the averages of the Buffalo Bisons – the Indians’ AAA affiliate:

• Batting average: .246
• On-base percentage: .318
• Slugging percentage: .378

Would it be possible for a team to eliminate all of the position players from its AAA team and not lose any value? The Indians seem to be trying to make this a reality.

Some baseball seasons are generic, but there are those seasons which you can tell are going to be remarkable.

To be remarkable, something must be worthy of being noticed, whether because it is uncommon or extraordinary. By that definition (laid out for us by Webster himself), the 2008 season is headed down a remarkable path. As the Memorial Day mile marker fades in the rearview mirror, we can already look back on a number of uncommon and extraordinary things that will come to define this season.

Here are ten of them:

10 – The Rays in first place…behind defense and relief pitching.

The Rays being in first place in what should be the toughest division in baseball is incredible enough, but let’s not forget that just a few short months ago, the Rays were the trendy pick for a playoff spot. They have a talented young lineup and a solid trio of young starters (Scott Kazmir, James Shields and Matt Garza). The remarkable thing is that they are winning behind the things that you wouldn’t expect out of young players: solid defense, fundamentals and relief pitching. Their bullpen has been bolstered by veterans such as Troy Percival, Dan Wheeler, and Trever Miller. Their defense has helped out their young starters, as they currently lead the American League with the fewest errors, highest fielding percentage and highest defensive efficiency. The Rays success is not shocking, but they way they’ve done it is.

9 – Extreme Struggles from Bona Fide Stars

Every year, players struggle out of the gate. There is really no predicting who, or for how long, they will struggle. This year has featured some prolonged struggles by players with enough of a track record that its longevity is surprising. Ryan Howard and Andruw Jones are currently batting .206 and .165 (!) respectively. That’s an MVP and what was once considered a lock to be a future hall of famer. On the mound, Justin Verlander has an ERA of 5.16 and is 2-7 after back-to-back top-10 finishes in the CY Young voting in his first two full seasons. Former winner of the same coveted trophy, Barry Zito, was removed from the rotation for a few days, and is sitting at 1-8 with a 5.65 ERA. These guys aren’t just falling short, or struggling. They are completely lost.

8 – Yankees Flop

Even those who thought the Yankees would be down this year did not see this coming. Last place? Worse record than both Baltimore and Tampa? Sure injuries have played a part, but who knew that prices had gone up so high that a couple hundred million dollars couldn’t buy you a bench anymore? Sadly, for Yankees fans, help isn’t exactly on the horizon, as their struggles this year have mostly been by the very young players most teams in this situation would call on for help.

7 – Justin Upton

So his line of .274/.372/.451 is nothing to write home about were it produced by your team’s everyday right fielder, but is your team’s every day right fielder 20 years old? Perhaps if you are a fan of the PAC-10. But Upton plays for the Arizona Diamondbacks, in the major leagues. He is playing every day for a first-place team, and he is doing it well. He has 16 extra base hits yet can’t buy a beer after the game. He has four outfield assists but has never voted in a presidential election. If you haven’t noticed yet (probably because he plays in Arizona), you should soon.

6 – Roy Halladay Finishing Games

Roy Halladay has five complete games already in 2008. That’s more than any other team in baseball. When does Halladay think he’s pitching? 1968? Doesn’t he know that pitchers only have to throw six innings to get a quality start? The overachieving Halladay has been given more than four runs of support by his offense in only four of his 11 starts this season, explaining his rather pedestrian 6-5 record.

5 – Chipper Jones’ Quest for .400

I refuse to get too excited about the possibility of a hitter hitting .400 for a season until at least the all-star break, but it is a remarkable feat to hit .400 for two months nonetheless. It just reminds us how ridiculous of an achievement it is for an entire season. What’s even more impressive for Jones is that he can’t ever seem to get in a rhythm of playing consistently because he misses almost a game a week with nagging injuries.

4 – Cliff Lee’s Start

Lee began the season pitching as if his life depended on him not giving up earned runs. He spent the better part of April pitching more like Bill “Spaceman” Lee (no relation) than himself. He gave up only one earned run in his first four starts, and ended April 5-0 with an ERA under 1.00. After a few hiccups, he rested comfortably during the unofficial start to summer with an ERA of only 1.50.

3 – Florida Marlins

Why do the Marlins come in at number 3 while the Rays are at number 10? The results have been similar: they are both in first place, and no one has been to either team’s stadium to watch a game in person. So what is the difference? Well, while the Rays added pieces to their puzzle this off-season, the Marlins traded away the best 25-year-old hitter in the National League (Miguel Cabrera), and their biggest off-season acquisition (Cameron Maybin) is struggling in Double-AA. While the Rays opening day starter was James Shields, the Marlins went with Mark Hendrickson. This was the first year of the rebuilding process for the Marlins. Apparently someone forgot to tell them.

2 – Albert Pujols

We’ve grown so accustomed to Pujols churning out seasons of .300/30/100 that we have begun to take him for granted. In fact, he has never not posted that line in his career. So after a “down” year in 2007, in which Albert battled through injuries to the tune of .327/.429/.568 with “only” 32 home runs, Albert decided to kick things into another gear that we didn’t know anyone had. You can overlook the .360 average thus far in 2008. You can ignore the pedestrian 12 home runs and 13 doubles. You can even ignore the league leading 43 walks and .483 on-base percentage. But you absolutely can not ignore the fact that he has done all of this while only striking out 19 times. 19 times! That’s a bad week for Ryan Howard. 19 times! That’s why, according to Baseball-reference.com, his closest career comparable is Joe DiMaggio.

1 – Utley’s April and Berkman’s May

How hot do you have to be to win Player of the Month over someone who is batting .400 (Chipper) or someone with an OPS of 1.107 (Pujols)? How does .360/.430/.766 with 10 doubles, 11 home runs, and 23 RBI’s sound? Or perhaps you would prefer .483/.570/.876 with 9 doubles, 8 home runs, and 21 RBI’s? The former was posted by Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Chase Utley en route to winning the POM award for the National League in April. The latter videogame-esque numbers have been churned out by Lance Berkman, who is almost assured of winning the award for May. There’s hot, then there’s Berkman hot.

Travis Hafner is doing his best Gorman Kingman imitation. Asdrubal Cabrera looks worse than Josh Barfield. Johnny Peralta is doing his best Gorman Kingman imitation. Rafael Betancourt is showing us why some pitchers don’t have the mental make-up to close. Yes, despite their second place standing, it’s been a disappointing start for the Indians. And there are lots of little warning bells going off.

But don’t worry, Tribe fans. Help is on the way! That’s right, Jason Tyner has joined the Big League club.

For those of you who didn’t get that sarcasm, let me provide some info for you.

Last week, the Indians traded outfielder Jason Michaels to Pittsburgh for a player to be named later. (Don’t even get me started on why Pirates’ GM Neal Huntington made this trade. An important rule for you aspiring GMs to learn: if you run a team that isn’t very good, don’t trade for a player that isn’t very good. Sounds simple, but so many teams don’t get this. Teams that are good can make such trades because they can slot such players into valuable reserve roles; if you’re bad, reserve roles shouldn’t be a focus. But anyway…)

The Indians then called up outfield Tyner. So why is this a bad move?

Tyner was hitting .234/.330/.309 – at AAA! It’s logical to assume that he’ll fare worse in the Majors, right? Nothing like a sub-.300 slugging percentage to get the wheels turning.

Tyner has been one of the worst offensive players in the past 20 years. He has a career .275 batting average, which isn’t terrible, until you consider that he’s couple that with a complete dearth of power (41 doubles, 11 triples and one home run in 1,358 at bats). His career slugging percentage is .323. To put this further in perspective, consider that if Tyner played in 162 games, his line would be 62 runs, 0 home runs and 35 RBIs.

But he’s speedy, right? Maybe, but he doesn’t get on base that often, and when he does, he doesn’t really steal that much. He’s stolen 61 bases in 1,358 at bats, or just 4.5% of his at bats.

So what is Cleveland thinking? If they’re confident they’ll be making the postseason, and they feel that they need to bring in a fifth outfielder to provide some late inning speed and defense, then this move makes sense. But can that have that confidence now? I wouldn’t think so.

If they’re bringing in Tyner to get meaningful at bats over the course of the season, then shame on the Indians for a) not having anyone better in their system, b) not understanding who Tyner is or c) not having a clue on how to build a winner. Maybe it’s all three. Maybe last year was a fluke and the Indians just aren’t that good of a team.

CINCINNATI – For the twelfth year, love it or hate it, interleague play is back. Starting Friday night, the battle for the Ohio state MLB championship was on the line.

Johnny Cueto had the hill for the Reds. After a sit down meeting with manager Dusty Baker, Cueto was told him to stop shaking off catcher Paul Bako’s signs. It worked in the first – a quick three-up, three-down inning for Johnny Jewel.

It didn’t take long for the Reds to snap the Tribe’s impressive 51 inning no earned runs streak. With two down in the first, Indians’ starter, Jeremy Sowers, walked Ken Griffey Jr. To the plate stepped former Indian, Brandon Phillips.

For what was perceived as an attitude flaw, Indians’ manager, Eric Wedge, wanted nothing to do with Phillips. He was traded to the Reds at the end of spring training in 2006 for some guy named Jeff Stevens.

Phillips tattooed a first pitch cookie well into the second deck of Great American Ball Park – an estimated 446 feet blast – giving the Reds a first inning 2-0 lead.

After another Cueto 1-2-3 inning in the top of the second, Adam Dunn turned on a Sowers pitch and deposited it into the Cleveland bullpen, putting the Reds up 3-0.

Through the first nine Indians’ batters, the only one who didn’t look like Soupy Sales trying to hit Sandy Koufax was pitcher, Sowers, who worked Cueto for a two out, 10-pitch walk. Grady Sizemore flew to right to end that inning.

The Reds threatened again in the bottom of the third. Jerry Hairston Jr., playing for the injured Jeff Keppinger, hit a double to left. Junior followed with a single to right. The third base coach waved Hairston around with no outs.

You can question the judgment all you want, but if it weren’t for a perfect no-bounce throw from right fielder Ben Francisco to catcher Victor Martinez it would have been a 4-0 ballgame.

Top of the fourth, 1-2-3 for Cueto. Top of the fifth, in order, he struck out the side. Through five, Cueto hadn’t given up a hit.

After Cueto struck out the side in the fifth Wedge probably told his guys something to the effect of, “Listen you pansies, he’s throwing strikes. Go up there hacking.”

In the top of the sixth, Casey Blake broke up the Cueto gem with a shot to straight away center. Travis Hafner, batting for Sowers, smacked one off the fair pole in right. Following a Sizemore ground out, Jhonny Peralta tied the game with the third solo home run of the inning.

The score would remain 3-3 until the bottom of the eighth. After a Junior ground out Rafael Perez was lifted in favor of Cincinnati native, Jensen Lewis, who was celebrating his 24th birthday.

With his adrenal gland in overdrive, and more than 25 friends and family members looking on, Lewis walked Phillips. Joey Votto then hit a bloop double to no man’s land in left. With runners on second and third, one down, Edwin Encarnacion walked.

Strikeout prone Dunn worked the count full, and ended up with a bases loaded, unhappy birthday, RBI walk to give the home team a 4-3 lead heading to the bottom of the ninth.

Coco Cordero, coming off of a blown save that saw the Marlins score six ninth inning runs, stepped to the rubber and had every pitch working. He struck out Blake looking at a 94 MPH heater, froze Jamey Carroll on a change, and made Sizemore look like a chump on a check swing slider.

David Weathers picked up the win. Cueto pitched six innings of three hit ball – all solo homers, and Coco notched his eighth save of the season in the first game of the weekend series.

Notes:

• The Tribe came into the game leading the majors with a 3.26 ERA – and dead last in batting average at .236. They improved their ERA, and their batting average fell.
• The Reds have the fewest two out RBIs in the majors with 44. They added two last night.
• The Reds have won four in a row – their longest winning streak of the season.

Tyson Whipple and his friends Jake and Rookie are on a nine day, nine ballpark trip – with plans of sleeping in their Toyota Corolla and eating peanut butter sandwiches. Tyson will be blogging about his trip daily.

Day 3

5:30 AM. Trust me on this: if you’re sleeping in your car, there’s no better location than a Target parking lot. It’s very well lit and is spacious enough to see potential attackers from afar. Yes, this is what three nights in a car does to you.

9:00 AM. McDonalds is currently peddling a new Southern chicken sandwich for breakfast and lunch. Today we received a free sandwich with the purchase of a med drink. SCORE!

10:00 AM. After an almost free breakfast we head to Marshalls because Jake only brought shorts – and now it’s freezing. He is looking for a cheap pair of sweats and it just so happens I find the only pair left in the store and buy them right out from under him for seven bucks. He has no other option but two buy some really questionable blue pants for twice the cost!

11:30 AM. We arrive at Progressive Field and to my surprise it is located just 20 feet from Quicken Loan Arena – very much like the stadiums for the Saints and Hornets in New Orleans. I really like that easy access for the city. The stadium is okay, the field is just okay and even though it’s a noon game on a Thursday, the fans were just okay. The stadium was maybe at half capacity and that was partly due to a kids promotion day. Indians’ starter Aaron Laffey pitched well, but he broke up the umpteen scoreless innings streak with a throwing error to first.

After every inning, woman-magnet Grady Sizemore would throw his between-inning-toss ball into the stands. The two kids behind us were more than happy to tell Grady he sucked because he didn’t throw a ball to them. Well, before the eighth inning, Grady threw the ball directly at me. I simply reached out and grabbed it – over a mom and her girl. The girl then says, “Hey Ranger dude, can I have your ball?” I, of course, am wearing my Texas hat.

I responded to her rudeness by calmly saying, “Don’t you think if Grady liked you, he would have thrown the ball to you? I’m not even an Indians fan and he threw me one.” The crowd instantly turned on me, and the bleacher drunk screamed, “How do you sleep at night.” I responded with a “I sleep on a big bag of baseballs that I stole from little kids.”

Half the crowd busted into laughter, with the other half calling for my head. The girl calls me a jerk, and uses some other choice words. What happened to parenting? Even though that rude little girl didn’t go to school today, she still got taught a real life lesson in supply and demand.

We’re staying tonight at the Marriott. The hot tub was great. On to Cincy.

Last night Cleveland second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera turned an unassisted triple play in the 5th inning against Toronto. Cabrera caught Lyle Overbay’s line drive, stepped on second to double Kevin Mench and tagged Marco Scutaro, who was standing on second.

The only mistake Cabrera made on the play was that he flipped the historic ball to fans behind the Indians’ dugout. “He came off the field and tossed the ball into the stands,” explained Indians first base coach Luis Rivera, serving as the 22-year-old Cabrera’s interpreter. “Right as he did, he cried out, ’Oh, no!”’

The last player to pull an unassisted triple play against the Indians was Ron Hansen, in 1968 for Washington. Hansen is now an advance scout for Philadelphia and was at Progressive Field to see Cabrera’s feat. “First one I’ve ever seen from the stands,” Hansen said. “On a play like that, it’s just reaction and he reacted right.”

Hansen said he sent both the ball he caught and his glove to the Baseball Hall of Fame and cherishes the moment forever.

The Indians have pulled off three unassisted triples plays and been victims three times. This is also the third triple play at the Jake (the first unassisted). The Tribe’s Neal Ball was first man to achieve the feat and Cleveland’s second baseman Bill Wambsganss was the last and only player to do it in the World Series.

Asdrubal Cabrera’s feat yesterday makes you reflect on all triple plays, and you have to have a soft spot in your heart for the batter who hits into the triple play. It should be noted that Brooks Robinson hit into the most triple plays; the Hall-of-Famer hit into four.

Then it should be noted that Ron Wright played one game in the majors. In his three at bats for the Mariners on April 14, 2002 against the Texas Rangers, his highlight was striking out. In his other two at bats he hit into a double play and a triple play.

Yet, of all those poor souls I feel the most sorry for Joe Pignatano who was finishing his major league career playing for pitiful 1962 New York Mets. On Sept 30, 1962, facing the Cubs in Wrigley, Piggy hit into a triple play. It would be his last major league at bat.

Can you imagine having to live with that memory?

It was off Bob Buhl in the 8th inning following singles by Sammy Drake and Richie Ashburn (his last at bat as well), and it started with a liner to the late Ken Hubbs at second, who threw to Ernie Banks at first and then over to shortstop Andre Rogers at second.

It’s my favorite last lick.

Here are major league baseball’s unassisted triple plays:

April 29, 2007: Colorado shortstop Troy Tulowitzki turned his in the 7th inning against Atlanta. Tulowitzki caught Chipper Jones’ line drive, stepped on second to double Kelly Johnson and tagged Edgar Renteria, who was headed to second.

Aug. 10, 2003: Atlanta shortstop Rafael Furcal turned his in the 5th inning against St. Louis. Furcal caught Woody Williams’ line drive, stepped on second to double Mike Matheny and tagged Orlando Palmeiro, who was running back to first.

May 29, 2000: Oakland second baseman Randy Velarde turned his in the 6th inning against the N.Y. Yankees. Velarde caught Shane Spencer’s line drive, tagged Jorge Posada between first and second and touched second base before Tino Martinez could return.

July 8, 1994: Boston shortstop John Valentin turned his in the 6th inning against Seattle. Valentin caught Marc Newfield’s line drive, stepped on second base to double Mike Blowers and tagged Keith Mitchell.

Sept. 20, 1992: Philadelphia second baseman Mickey Morandini turned his in the 6th inning against Pittsburgh. Morandini caught Jeff King’s line drive up the middle, stepped on second to double Andy Van Slyke and tagged Barry Bonds who was standing near second base.

July 30, 1968: Washington shortstop Ron Hansen turned his in the 1st inning against Cleveland. Hansen caught Joe Azcue’s line drive, stepped on second to double Dave Nelson and tagged Russ Snyder going toward second.

May 31, 1927: Detroit first baseman Johnny Neun turned his in the 9th inning against Cleveland. Neun caught Homer Summa’s line drive, tagged Charlie Jamieson between first and second and touched second base before Glenn Myatt could return.

May 30, 1927: Chicago shortstop Jim Cooney turned his in the 4th inning of the morning game against Pittsburgh. Cooney took Paul Waner’s line drive, stepped on second to retire Lloyd Waner and then tagged Clyde Barnhart coming from first.

May 7, 1925: Pittsburgh shortstop Glenn Wright turned his in the 9th inning against St. Louis. Wright caught Jim Bottomley’s line drive, stepped on second to retire Jimmy Cooney, and tagged Rogers Hornsby coming from first to end the game.

Oct. 6, 1923: Boston shortstop Ernie Padgett turned his in the 4th inning of the second game of a doubleheader against the Philadelphia Phillies. Padgett caught Walter Holke’s line drive, stepped on second base to retire Cotton Tierney and then tagged Cliff Lee before he could return to first base.

Sept. 14, 1923: Boston first baseman George Burns turned his in the 2nd inning against Cleveland. Burns caught Frank Brower’s line drive, tagged Walt Lutzke off first base and ran to second and slid into the bag before Riggs Stephenson could return from third base.

Oct. 10, 1920: Cleveland second baseman Bill Wambsganss turned his in the 5th inning of the fifth game of the World Series against Brooklyn. Wambsganss caught Willie Mitchell’s line drive stepped on second to retire Pete Kilduff and tagged Otto Miller coming from first.

July 19, 1909: Cleveland shortstop Neal Ball turned his in the 2nd inning of the first game of a doubleheader with Boston. Ball caught Amby McConnell’s line drive at second base, touched second to retire Heinie Wagner, who was on his way to third, then tagged Jake Stahl as he came up to second.

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide. Autographed first editions are available by contacting, Bill@billy-ball.com or order directly from Acta Sports, http://www.actasports.com/detail.html?&id=3427 or from your favorite bookstore.

Ker-Pronk!

Cleveland Indians management and fans are becoming more concerned with each passing day with the struggles of Travis “Pronk” Hafner. They should be. In fact, they’re getting worried a little bit late. Hafner’s sharp drop-off at that plate shouldn’t be a surprise to anybody because players of his type (tall, thick, defensively challenged power hitters) have a history of not aging well. This point has been demonstrated many times, but every time a new behemoth begins swatting balls all over a major league ballpark the local citizenry needs to be reminded. So Cleveland, here’s your reminder.

The most similar player, statistically speaking, to Travis Hafner at age 30 (according to our friends at www.baseball-reference.com) is Jim Gentile. Gentile was a late bloomer who didn’t establish himself in the majors until he was 26 years old (sound familiar?). He hit .292 with 21 HR in 384 AB in 1960 and the Orioles were convinced they’d uncovered a diamond in the rough. They were immediately rewarded with an MVP quality season from Gentile in 1961 when he hit .302/.423/.646 with 46 HR and 141 RBI. He might have won the award were it not for the two guys in New York who also had pretty good years in ’61. Over the next three years, two with the Orioles and one with the Royals, Gentile lost a lot of batting average (.251, .248, .251) but retained some of his power (33, 24, 28 HR). In 1965, at the ripe old age of 31, Jim Gentile fell off the cliff; hitting .243 with only 17 HR. He would play only one more season.

The second most similar player to Hafner is Dick Stuart. Stuart was 28 years old and in his fourth season in the majors in 1961 (what was in the water that year?) when he posted his career best line of .301/.344/.581 with 35 HR. He had a bad year in 1962, but his power rebounded over the next two as he drilled 42 and 33 HR despite posting batting averages of .261 and .279. His numbers cratered after that and he played only three more major league seasons, including an aborted comeback at age 36.

Both of these men were over six feet tall and weighed in north of 200 pounds, just like “Pronk”. Neither of them was very good in the field; Dick Stuart’s nickname was “Dr. Strangeglove”. Both of them came to the majors in their mid-20’s, established themselves quickly as hitters of prodigious power and just as quickly faded away. Their stories are echoed in the biographies of more contemporary players like Kent Hrbek, Cecil Fielder, Mo Vaughn, Kevin McReynolds and Ryan Klesko.

None of these facts mean that Travis Hafner is definitely finished as an MVP quality ballplayer, but they certainly make it unlikely he will reach that level again. More importantly, they indicate that last year’s season (.266/.385/.451 with 24 HR) may represent what the Indians can reasonably expect from Hafner in the future. He has done nothing so far this year to make anyone believe that last year was an aberration, and the lack of a big bat in the middle of the Cleveland line-up is going to hurt their chances to make the playoffs significantly. Even worse, Hafner is due to make $49 million over the next four years, which is far too high a percentage of a mid-market team’s payroll to be paying to a below average clean-up hitter.

There are four basic individual skills that go into being a major league baseball player: hitting for power, hitting for average, speed and defense. The key to longevity is to be above average at as many of those skills as possible. The problem with players like Travis Hafner is that all of their talent is concentrated into one or two areas. In Hafner’s case, hitting for power and, to a lesser extent, hitting for average. As those skills degrade, Hafner can’t fall back on speed or defense to maintain his value. Unless he rediscovers his power in a hurry the Indians are in trouble this year and for the foreseeable future. History is not on his side. Are you watching Phillie fans?

Teams continue trend of locking up young players before arbitration

When the Cleveland Indians signed starting pitcher Fausto Carmona to a contract extension this past week, it virtually sealed the fate of their current ace, C.C. Sabathia, as an upcoming free agent. If Sabathia eventually ends up in Yankee pinstripes, you can thank Brian Cashman and Robinson Cano for helping set the wheels in motion.

Locking up talented young players such as Carmona is a strategy that has been employed by well-run teams since the advent of free agency. Traditionally, however, teams capitalized on the initial six years of control they have over a player, and used that control to keep player’s salaries low until they neared free agency. With the recent escalation of major league salaries (the average MLB salary crossed the $3 million mark this year) and the escalating production of younger players, teams have begun to shift their focus toward locking up their own young players during arbitration years and into free agency rather than pay top dollar for high prices free agents. Buying out a player’s arbitration years is becoming more appealing to teams, now that players such as Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard can be awarded $10M per year in arbitration.

The Yankees, having spent a lot of their money on free agents in the past decade with mixed results, have joined in on this trend as well. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman secured the future of second baseman Robinson Cano this February, signing the young slugger to a four-year/$30 million deal, with club options that could maximize the deal at 6 years and $57 million. Cano had just reached his first year of arbitration eligibility.

The uncertainty of the arbitration years is part of what teams are hoping to avoid when signing young players to long-term contracts. After the first three years of service time (during which the player has no leverage), salaries had historically risen at a gradual pace in the remaining three arbitration years. But as the Howard signing demonstrates, young star players are being awarded larger and larger salaries in those latter three years.

To combat this trend, teams have begun to offer long-term deals to select players at earlier points in their career. These contracts offer the team some stability for the future, and also can lockup a player for his first few years into free agency. The player is willing to waive his arbitration rights and potentially the first several years of free agency because the salaries in these deals are guaranteed.

The Colorado Rockies set the tone this off-season, as they locked up a large portion of the young nucleus that helped them win the National League pennant in 2007. They demonstrated this commitment to their homegrown talent by rewarding shortstop Troy Tulowitzki the largest contract (six years/$31 million) ever given to a player with less than two years of major league service time. The trend followed throughout the 2008 off-season and into April with players like Carmona, Cano and Arizona Diamondbacks centerfielder Chris Young all agreeing to long-term deals.

Depending on their varying levels of success, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy all could be next in line for similar long-term contracts. All three youngsters are in what should be their first full season, and it is typically after a full, successful season that a team has the confidence in a player’s ability to play at the major league level necessary to make a long-term commitment.

THE MOVE

Baseball has always been played by the book, and while that book has changed and adapted over the years, it does not always provide teams with the best blueprint for success.

The book currently says that every team must have a closer, and that having a “closer by committee” simply does not work. The logic behind the committee system works on paper and offers a solution to teams who have less talented bullpens than others. Unfortunately, the same could have been said about communism. In fact, the committee system has proven to be nothing but a self-fulfilling prophecy for failure for those teams who have given it a shot.

It is also no more effective for a club to force an inadequate pitcher into close games in late innings when his shortcomings will have such an immediate negative impact on his team’s success. This is the current situation in Cleveland.

Incumbent closer Joe Borowski has been an effective closer in the past and has 127 career saves, but his days as a successful late inning reliever appear to have ended sometime in 2006. His 45 saves last season are more a testament to the absurdity of the save as a mainstream statistic than they are to Borowski’s effectiveness.

Forget his 5.07 ERA last season, or his 1.431 WHIP. Borowski gave up 9 homeruns in 65 2/3 innings pitched, or once every 7 appearances. That’s a late inning home run once every other week, almost always occurring in close games.

Championship teams can not afford to give away games at this rate.

But Tribe fans shouldn’t press the panic button yet. The Indians have some other options internally. Both Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez could be options to close games, but both also have their drawbacks.

Betancourt is 33 and has never closed for an extended period of time, but the same could have been said about Borowski before he became the Cubs closer in his early thirties. Betancourt has a solid track record as a reliever, a high enough strike out rate, and good enough control that he might be able to make the transition.

Perez is young and has only one full season established at the major league level, but it was an excellent season, and he showed that he can be effective against both lefties and righties. His stuff might also translate well in the closers role.

But to whom should the job go? The book says the manager must designate one man to be the closer, and he must use this man in save situations only despite his success in other roles. The committee doesn’t work.

Well the reason the committee doesn’t work has nothing to do with designating one man for the job and has nothing to do with the oft-used notion that only some pitchers have the “closer’s mentality.” No one knows whether a pitcher has a closer’s mentality until he blows a few saves, at which point it is decided that he does not.

No, the committee does not work because baseball players, and even more so relief pitchers, are creatures of habit. Right or wrong, pitchers will perform better when their comfort level is higher. There is no proof of this, other than to ask them. They believe it matters, and so it does.

In order to keep these comfort levels up, pitchers want to know their role, whatever role that might be. For example, when the Phillies moved their opening day starter Brett Myers to the bullpen in 2007, he agreed with only one stipulation: He asked not to be moved back and forth. He asked that if he was going to be moved to the bullpen, that he remain there. He wanted to establish his comfort level in his new role.

With the full-blown committee system, bullpen usage is supposed to be completely based on match-ups. What some suggest is that the team’s best pitcher should be used in the 5th inning of a game one night if the team gets in a tight spot, and the next night he could be used in the 9th if the situation dictates.

Should major league ballplayers be able to handle this task? Yes. But the fact remains, they do not handle it well. These games are not played on paper. Human emotion and behavior must be considered.

So what then of the Indians bullpen situation?

I suggest not a closer by committee system, but a co-closer system with assigned roles.

First, Joe Borowski would be removed from pitching close, late inning games. A trade should be attempted (perhaps someone will play the “change of scenery card”) or Borowski could be a middle reliever if he could handle the demotion, but if need be, he could be designated for assignment. This is not a personal attack on Joe Borowski; he simply cannot get the job done anymore.

Both Betancourt and Perez would be named co-closers. The rest of the team’s set-up roles would remain the same. The two Rafael’s would pitch the last 6-9 outs of most ballgames in which the Indians lead, and the order would simply be determined by the match-ups at the time.

In this situation, both players know that their role consists of pitching in the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings; it’s just a matter of the order in which they throw.

This move needs to be made now so that it can be seen if it will work. It worked in the early 1990’s with the Cincinnati Reds (especially in 1992 when Rob Dibble and Norm Charlton had 25 and 26 saves respectably), and could work in Cleveland. If enacted now, there will be enough time to see if a trade for a more established closer needs to be made at the trading deadline.

A championship caliber like Cleveland shouldn’t allow themselves to be undone by conventional logic. It’s their time to add a new chapter to the book.

As always, if you have a move you would like to suggest, e-mail it to dugoutcentralGMlist at gmail dot com.

THE LIST

The early part of the baseball season always brings about unexpected optimism and fits of panic as reaction to early successes or failures. Some are warranted, but some are just the fluky nature of the game. The one thing that holds true about the baseball season is that, over the course of 162 games, the truth always comes out.

That being the case, let’s take a look at the early season occurrences, and whether or not they will continue:

10 – Defending NL Champs below .500

Yes. The Rockies will get much closer to .500 than they are right now, but don’t expect them to surpass that mark by much. There’s no doubt they overachieved, and teams that were supposed to be one year away and then show up a year early tend to regress the following year. They are still young and talented, but so is the rest of the division.

9 – Giants Offensive Woes

Yes. Probably not to this extent, but yes. Right now, the Giants are next-to-last or last in the National League in BA, OBP, SLG, doubles, home runs, and runs scored. Last season, no National League team batted below .250. The Giants are currently batting .217, with only 13 extra-base hits in 7 games.

8 – Fukudome Mania

Yes. The early returns are good on the Cubs first every Japanese import, Kosuke Fukudome. Besides homering on opening day, his splits through 7 games are .458/.581/.708. He won’t keep that up, but until the league adjusts to him, he will continue to sizzle.

7 – Red Sox Scuffle

No. The Sox will be fine. They’re lucky to be doing this well considering the task Major League Baseball asked of them this spring. No one thought it would make more sense if both teams asked to travel to Japan got to go home and sleep in their own beds? No, let’s make them stay on the West Coast, get readjusted to that time slot, then send them back east. On top of it, let’s send them to Canada, which, while not quite the hassle of going to Japan, still involves more than your traditional road trip. Once the Red Sox get readjusted, they will be fine. Look for them at the end of April. They’ll be at the top of the standings.

6 – Johnny Cueto Dominates

Dominate? No, but have success? Yes. Cueto is excellent, but the league always figures guys out after their first time through. The league will react the same with Cueto. Expect him to baffle a few more teams, but after about 5-7 starts, he will hit a few bumps in the road. It will be up to him to adjust at that point. Cueto is a well-polished pitcher for his age, so expect him to make those adjustments and do well.

5 – Braves Bullpen Holds Them Back

Yes, unless they make some moves. The Braves rotation has an ERA of 2.43. Their bullpen has an ERA of 5.40. That won’t work. They need to make a move.

4 – Kansas City Royals Play Well

Absolutely Yes. They won’t win the AL Central, but with all the hype about the Rays as hot team to pick this season, the Royals are just as much on that same path. Their core of Alex Gordon, Billy Buckner, Mark Teahen, Brian Bannister, Zack Greinke, and Joakim Soria, is only a notch below other young talented teams like Tampa Bay and Arizona.

3 – Rays at .500

Yes, or close to it. Sure, it’s early, but the Rays survived their early season trip to Yankee Stadium and escaped with their heads still barely above water. More importantly, they are 3-3 despite the trio of Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, and BJ Upton, and Akinori Iwamura batting a combined .196 (19 for 97) with only 2 home runs. Scott Kazmir also hasn’t pitched yet. If they can scrape out three wins with that kind of production, they should be in pretty good shape once the big bats start hitting.

2 – Tigers Last in AL Central

No, of course not. There’s too much talent on this team to remain in the basement, but this is definitely a flawed team. Their dominance of the American League will not be the foregone conclusion that many experts, and perhaps the Tigers themselves, thought it would be.

1 – Orioles Have the Best Record in Baseball

There’s probably a better chance of the Tigers staying in last place. The Orioles have broken out of the gate at 5-1, but it’s a mirage. They managed to skip having to use a 5th starter due to a rainout. They also benefited from the complete mismanagement of the Mariners bullpen by manager John McLaren, which took the loss in the last two games of the series, including Sunday, when they blew a save and spoiled an absolute gem thrown by Felix Hernandez.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Realistic expectations for 2008: Third place and, if they are lucky, a .500 record.

Team’s biggest strength: They have veterans who can still play and could be used as trade bait to rebuild for 2009 and beyond.

Team’s biggest weakness: Kenny Williams still seems to think it is 2005.

They can win the division if: Nick Swisher puts up a huge season; their vets’ skills don’t decline too much; and John Danks and Gavin Floyd have breakout seasons.

The one player they can’t afford to lose: Orlando Cabrera… not that he’s all that great but if he goes down, Juan Uribe plays short every day.

The one player likely to break out: Carlos Quentin.  It looks like an outfield spot is his to lose. He’s in a good hitter’s park, and he’s playing for a fiery manager who may motivate him to stay on top of his game.

The one player likely to tank: Jermaine Dye’s OPS-Plus dropped from 151 in 2006 to 105 in 2007, and his SLG dropped .136 points. That’s not a good sign for a 34-year-old corner outfielder who’s never been all that disciplined a hitter.

CLEVELAND INDIANS

Realistic expectations for 2008: At worst they should be in the hunt for the division title or the AL Wild Card.  At best they’ll win 95-100 games.

Team’s biggest strength: They are loaded with talented players at or near their primes.

Team’s biggest weakness: For a division title contender, they won’t get that much offense from the corner positions.

They can win the division if: Fausto Carmona just comes close to his 2007 performance, and they get the breaks that the Tigers don’t.

The one player they can’t afford to lose: Grady Sizemore.

The one player likely to break out: Asdrubal Cabrera.  The second base job is his and, at 22, he should be at least among the top six or seven second basemen in the league. 

DETROIT TIGERS 

Realistic expectations for 2008: After coming oh so close in 2006, they fell off a bit in 2007.  Now they are poised to make a World Series run in 2008.  Like the Indians, at the very least they’ll be Wild Card contenders.

Team’s biggest strength: Their outstanding offense gets even better with the addition of Miguel Cabrera.

Team’s biggest weakness: Their bullpen is pretty old and is weakened by the loss of Joel Zumaya for at least half the season.

They can win the division if: If they simply get decent pitching from the bullpen.

The one player they can’t afford to lose: Justin Verlander.  He is the ace and anchors an otherwise ordinary pitching staff.

The one player likely to break out: Marcus Thames, if he can wrestle the left field job from Jacque Jones.  But look out for Jeremy Bonderman.  If healthy, maybe this is the year he contends for the Cy Young Award.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS 

Realistic expectations for 2008: Another 90 loss season. 

Team’s biggest strength: Talented youngsters – Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, Zach Greinke, Luke Hochevar and Joakim Soria – to build a contender around.

Team’s biggest weakness: They’re likely stuck with Gil Meche’s contract until 2011. 

They can win the division if: All their young players miraculously play to their upside.

The one player they can’t afford to lose: Alex Gordon.  He’s somewhat of a local guy with a lot of promise – the type of guy that will put fannies in the seats.

The one player likely to break out: Billy Butler was called up during 2007, and now he’ll get a full-time job and show everyone what he can do.

MINNESOTA TWINS 

Realistic expectations for 2008: Finishing the year out of the seller and contending with the White Sox for third place.

Team’s biggest strength: Hard to think of a more talented offensive big three under 30 than Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Delmon Young.

Team’s biggest weakness: They just don’t quite have the punch to properly surround those three hitters, nor do they have enough pitching.

They can win the division if: Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker and Boof Bonser break out, and Morneau and Mauer again compete for the MVP as in 2006.

The one player they can’t afford to lose: Justin Morneau – the only big-time power threat.

The one player likely to break out: Jason Kubel could finally get his chance as a healthy, everyday player.

It was not a very exciting offseason in Cleveland, to say the least. When your biggest acquisition is an unproven middle reliever from Japan (Masahide Kobayashi) you can evaluate it one of two ways: either GM Mark Shapiro was so shook up by the ALCS collapse he forgot it was the offseason, or he feels he’s returning one of, if not the, strongest core of players in the league.

I think we all know which is closer to the truth. While the Indians were no doubt disappointed by how the season ended against Boston, they are all very excited to get the 2008 season started with all of the same guys who got them there a year too early.

The tandem of David Dellucci (OPS+ of 76) and Jason Michaels (87) in left will replace Kenny Lofton (87). 25-year-old Franklin Gutierrez (103) should inherit the majority of at bats in right, replacing Trot Nixon (78). Despite having four major league seasons under his belt and three top 25 MVP finishes, Grady Sizemore (122) is just 25-years-old and should continue to improve.

The only position battle will be at second base where Asdrubal Cabrera (101) and Josh Barfield (54) will battle it out in Florida before Cabrera settles in there. Rounding out the infield will be Casey Blake (101) at third, Jhonny Peralta (100) at short and Ryan Garko (117) at first.

The Victor Martinez (127) and Kelly Shoppach (101) tandem behind the plate is the best 1-2 combo at that position in MLB and, maybe, the best starter/backup at any position in baseball. Interchangeable and versatile to play first base, these two plus Garko and DH Travis Hafner (118) give the Indians a consistent presence in the 3, 4 and 5 spots in the lineup.

The pitching staff returns the reigning Cy Young winner in CC Sabathia (ERA+ of 143), rookie sensation Fausto Carmona (151) and two groundball makers in Jake Westbrook (107) and Paul Byrd (100). The fifth spot will be the only question mark, with Aaron Laffey (101), Jeremy Sowers (72) and Cliff Lee (73) all in consideration.

The bullpen will continue to be strong, despite the presence of Joe Borowski (91) at the end. Someday Borowski’s tenure as closer will end, and the Indians have Rafael Betancourt (312) to take over. Second-year relievers Jensen Lewis (214) and Rafael Perez (259) look to continue their success from a year ago.

The elephant in the room is the Detroit Tigers’ offseason. The Indians’ rival added All-Star third baseman Miguel Cabrera and starting pitcher Dontrelle Willis, while the Indians added relief help from Japan and a backup middle infielder in Jamey Carroll. Still, looking at the ages of the Indians players, perhaps all they need is for their returning players to further develop.

Players by category with age as of March 9, 2008:

Further reading:

Laffey’s mechanics and Gutierrez’s development

My speed dial is set and my earpiece is nestled comfortably with the volume turned up. Legacy Sports baseball agent Brian Peters and I have started talks to re-sign C.C. Sabathia before spring training, and I am not going to miss one phone call from him in the next 2 months.

I really like my roster no matter what Detroit has done this off season. Mark Shapiro has left me with a team that was one win from the World Series and some insurance money to play with from the renaming of Jacobs Field to Progressive Field. My core, everyday players are all signed through the 2010, and my pitching staff is here to stay and solid through 2010 as well (see chart).

Hold on, Brian’s calling…………..

5 years, $75M is probably a respectful start from their perspective, but I’m not giving in yet, especially if I haven’t even gotten a free steak dinner out of him yet. I heard he took Mark to a really nice restaurant last year when they hammered out Hafner’s extension (which I think was a little high).

Sabathia won the Cy Young award last year with an aggressive, pound-the-strike zone mentality that is hard to find in a power pitcher. You wouldn’t be surprised if I told you that C.C. walks a lot of guys and strikes out a ton, but that’s not the case. The guys have told me they love playing behind C.C. because he’s always around the plate. Hardly worthy of a big time contract all by itself but add in his intangibles, and it’s hard to hide my eagerness to get him signed before Wedge shows up in Winter Haven.

I’m gonna call Brian back………

I think I made some headway, but he’s not biting on the 3 years, $39M with a club option for $14M, and who can blame him. I have to play the game. I want him on this team through 2012. I mean, he’s only 27 and everyone knows you can’t trade a top-tier lefty for six prospects anymore.

Now that we are in the neighborhood of $13 to $15M I can almost bank on a thick steak and some expensive wine to nail down the details. It’s going to be an interesting run this year. All we have to do is remember we aren’t playing the Tigers 162 times this year, only 18 times; the rest of the schedule is the same as last year and that turned out pretty well.

Starting pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka and reliever Hideki Okajima were instrumental in helping the Red Sox win their second Series title in four years. The Cleveland Indians are hoping for the same success as they become the latest team to enter the Japanese pitching market, agreeing to a $6.25 million, two-year contract with free-agent closer Masahide Kobayashi. The deal for Kobayashi, who had at least 20 saves in each of the past seven seasons, includes a $3.25 million club option for 2010.

Kobayashi, 33, spent the past nine seasons with the Chiba Lotte Marines, where he amassed more than 200 saves. Last season, Kobayashi went 2-7 with a 3.61 ERA and 27 saves in 49 appearances.

Kobayashi throws two above average pitches. His fastball is in the low to mid 90s, and his slider is his out pitch. He will also show a splitter. The Indians envision him as a power arm at the back end of its bullpen, as a setup man for closer Joe Borowski, who led the AL with 45 saves last season.

“This is a guy who has extensive closing experience,” Indians general manager Mark Shapiro said at a news conference to introduce Kobayashi. “I view him in the upper echelon of guys who were available on the market.”

Here is a look at some of Kobayashi’s 3-year stat trends.

FIP
Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded.

2007 5.90
2006 4.87
2005 7.57

WHIP
Walks and Hits Per Inning Pitched, a variant of OBP for pitchers.

2007 1.37
2006 1.06
2005 1.28

RA
Runs Allowed Per Nine Innings. Just like ERA, but with unearned runs, too.

2007 2.66
2006 1.77
2005 1.55

HR/G
Home Runs Allowed per games pitched. This stat is based on the number of home runs allowed divided by total number of batters faced, times the average number of batters per game in that specific league (generally around 38 batters a game).

2007 0.73
2006 0.71
2005 1.22

LOB%
LOB stands for Left On Base. It is the number of runners that are left on base at the end of an inning. LOB% is slightly different; it is the percentage of baserunners allowed that didn’t score a run. LOB% is used to track pitcher’s luck or effectiveness (depending on your point of view). The exact formula is (H+BB+HBP-R)/(H+BB+HBP-(1.4*HR)).

2007 0.70
2006 0.80
2005 0.88

BABIP
Batting Average on Balls in Play. This is a measure of the number of batted balls that safely fall in for a hit (not including home runs). The exact formula we use is (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF). This is similar to DER, but from the batter’s perspective

2007 .332
2006 .303
2005 .312

K/G
Strikeouts per games pitched. This stat is based on the number of strikeouts divided by total number of batters faced, times the average number of batters per game in that specific league (generally around 38 batters a game).

2007 6.42
2006 8.52
2005 6.74

BB/G
Walks Allowed per games pitched. This stat is based on the number of walks allowed divided by total number of batters faced, times the average number of batters per game in that specific league (generally around 38 batters a game).

2007 2.20
2006 1.42
2005 1.83

K/BB Ratio

2007 2.91
2006 6.00
2005 3.66

Everyone knows by now how I feel about individual awards, the postseason and the correlation between the two. So in my perfect world (or fantasy), the voters should vote on the award after the postseason is over.

For Josh Beckett, being a postseason “stud” is a very important quality, but unfortunately this strength can’t be factored into regular season opinions.

This season, Beckett started strong; he won his first nine decisions and put up an ERA of 2.88. Beckett lead the entire Major Leagues in wins with 20, and he was the first American League pitcher to win 20 games since Bartolo Colon won 21 for the Los Angeles Angels in 2005. Colon won the CY Young that year.

Yes, C.C. Sabathia had a great regular season, both statistically and subjectively, but did all those innings (241) in the regular season catch up to him in the postseason? Yes, yes, I know it’s a regular season award but…

Beckett’s 2007 stats:

Regular Post Season

1.14 WHIP is 5th best in the AL 0.70 WHIP

3.27 ERA is 6th best 1.20 ERA

K/BB ratio 4.85, 4th best 17.50 K/BB ratio

8.70 K/9, 6th 10.50 K/9

.245 OP AVG, 5th .183 OP AVG.

195 Ks, 7th 35 Ks

58.6 VORP 30.0 IP

3.02 WPA 1.02 WPA

1.9 BB/9, 6th 0.60 BB/9

Top 10 in quality starts 4 - 0

Very impressive numbers, but Sabathia’s regular season numbers are better. The postseason, as you can see, is a completely different story.

When Beckett’s team needed him the most in the playoffs, he stepped up. He rescued the Sox’s season in game four of the ALCS and jumpstarted a seven-game winning streak that finished with the four-game sweep of the Colorado Rockies.

It’s a shame the CY Young vote doesn’t happen after the postseason. Based on individuals results and the postseason team success, there would be little argument that Beckett deserves the award.

While Beckett should win the CY Young, I think it will go to Sabathia. Beckett will have to settle for the ALCS MVP and a World Series ring.

Cleveland (96 wins)

Even with the inability to put a resilient Red Sox team away in the ALCS, the Indians are in a great position for another run at the Fall Classic. Sabathia and Carmona give the Indians a great 1-2 pitching punch. The emergence of Asdrubal Cabrera at second addressed a need, but third and left field still remain question marks. They picked up Paul Byrd’s option even with the HGH talk, which gives them stability in the back end of their rotation. Can young arms Adam Miller and Aaron Laffey contribute in 2008? Can Andy Marte be the long term in-house fix at third? I really don’t see them making too many moves besides a possible go at a cheap veteran left fielder. My top priority would be trying to re-sign Sabathia to a long-term contract before he has a chance to hit the free agent market in 2009.

Detroit (88)

The biggest question heading into the winter was first base, and they answered it by acquiring Edgar Renteria from the Braves and moving Carlos Guillen from short to first. A quick look at this transaction worries me for one reason and one reason alone: Renteria is back in the AL. His one year with Boston wasn’t as bad as most Sox fans may remember, but I think Renteria feels more comfortable playing in the NL. Gary Sheffield has been constantly on/off the DL list the last two years, but when he’s healthy does anyone hit the ball as hard? I don’t see the Tigers making too many moves this winter, but they have to figure out if Marcus Thames is an everyday player in left or if they need to find a replacement player. With injuries last year in the bullpen, would another arm or two be a good idea? World Champion Gagne anyone?

Twins (79)

Deep breathe, people of Minnesota! Talks of trading Johan Santana have surfaced and from the looks of such a thin free agency pool his value has never been higher. Santana is looking for a big payday and rightfully so; he is consistently one of the best pitchers in the league year after year. The problem, of course, is that the Twins have no plans of awarding Santana with the richest pitching contact in league history. So my guess is they fish for the best possible package, and when they realize Santana has no plans of taking anything less than top dollar, the Twins move on the deal. And with Joe Nathan in the last year of his deal, what kind of value could he bring in return? I don’t want to call this a fire sale, but it’s more of the Twins just taking advantage of an opportunity. They have two great young corner stone players in Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Acquiring a couple more good young pieces could be the best bet, along with using the money that would have re-signed Tori Hunter to lock the young pieces up long term. With Francisco Liriano coming back from major surgery and Matt Garza looking promising, I say build to the future and the 2010 new ballpark.

White Sox (72)

Where to begin with this team? They played horribly and the manager received a contract extension. That shows me one thing; management feels confident that fiery skipper Jose Guillen can right this sinking ship and try to motivate the aging veterans into making one last push at a ring. Jermaine Dye and Mark Buehrle could have brought back a significant return before last year’s trading deadline, but they choose to re-sign both long term. How many years does Jim Thome have left in that bat? Talks of Joe Crede leaving town are all over the place, but who would replace him? I wouldn’t be surprised if this team is fighting for the division lead in September, nor would I be surprised to see them do a complete repeat of 2007 and fall apart. If the latter happens, expect fans to hold Kenny Williams accountable for a team full of question marks.

Royals (69)

I can honestly say I was pleasantly surprised with the 2007 Royals and their 69 wins. Overachieving a little? Yea, maybe so, but 2007 showed us a look at some pretty solid young talent. Alex Gordon just needs time; he has way too much talent not to pan out. I love the potential of Billy Butler and Tony Pena Jr. Zach Greinke is still young, but will he ever be the number one guy in Kansas City like they hoped he would? The Royals showed they are willing to spend some money, unlike years past, with the acquisition of Gil Meche last year. Are they willing to spend some more and try and build around the young talent they have to compete in a very tough AL Central? Finally, Trey Hillman finds himself leading this team into 2008. Will his recent success in Japan translate into wins in America? Time will tell, but everything I’ve read says his personality is infectious, and he’s about bringing the basics back to the game. Winning is his number one goal. He’s not looking to rebuild; he wants to contend now. You’ve got to like that if you’re a Royals fan.

In between games one and seven, the American League Championship Series was filled with twists and turns, peaks and valleys, high hopes, and broken dreams. But it ended the way it started, at Fenway Park, with Boston pounding the tribe.

The Indians, who held so much promise of dashing Boston’s dreams, holding three games to one lead in the best of seven series, couldn’t drive the final stake through the Sox’s hearts. Starting with Josh Beckett’s series saving performance in Game five, the Indians dreams vanished in the thin night air.

Boston uncorked the bubbly shortly after dispensing with the Tribe in an 11-2 scorching in Game 7. For the second time in 4 years, the Sox stormed back after being on the brink of elimination.

The final box score had all the appearances of a laugher, when actually it was a white knuckler through six suspenseful innings. And the game came close to being knotted at three in the seventh, when Joel Skinner, the Tribe third base coach, inexplicably held up the stop sign on Kenny Lofton after Franklin Gutierrez ricocheted a drive down the third base line. 

If the the speedy left-fielder had been waived around, the game could very well have gone in another direction. Instead, Boston escaped with the lead still intact, after Casey Blake followed Gutierrez with an inning-ending double play, and with it, the Tribe’s hopes of advancing to their first World Series since 1997 faded away.

The Red Sox outscored the Indians 30-5 in the last 3 games – a startling statistic, and a telling sign the Tribe pitching didn’t live up to expectations. C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona, the two staff aces, and Rafael Perez out of the bullpen, ran out of gas when their team need them most.

The key for Boston was its $103 million investment: Daisuke Matsuzaka made it through five innings for the first time in the post-season and registered his first playoff win. Though he was nicked for two runs, his confidence appeared restored. Francona stuck with him in the fifth, when the Tribe was threatening with runners on the corners and one out. But Matsuzaka escaped the inning, with the Sox clinging to a three to two lead.

Hideki Okajima pitched two shutout innings to set the table for thunderball Jonathan Papelbon. Papelbon recorded his first career six-out save – one better than his previous long of a five-out save on April 8th against the Texas Rangers.

It was another quiet night for the heart of the Boston lineup. The first two men in the batting order, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis supplied all the thunder the Sox needed, going a combined six for 10, with two home runs and seven RBIs.

Boston will host the World Series beginning Wednesday night, where they’ll meet the Colorado Rockies. If the regular season is any guide, Josh Beckett and his troops will have their hands full. The Boston ace was banged around for six runs during their interleague series with the Rockies, when Colorado took 2 out 3 from the Sox at Fenway on June 12 through the 14th
One look at how the Rockies small payroll compares with high rolling Red Sox, and it’s clear we’re in for another David vs. Goliath series, with the Rockies hoping to come away crowned the “Miracle Mets’’ of the 21st century.

www.billlucey.com

Fear of failing has served Curt Schilling well, especially during the post-season, where he’s racked up 10 wins, including an impressive 4-0 record in post-season elimination games. In fact, the Sox, overall, hold a remarkable record in Game 6 post-season history, going 7-3, dating back to 1903.

The “big game” right-hander was far from spectacular, but he didn’t need to be last night. His offense, particularly the bottom of the order, which was nowhere to be found through the first 4 games, sprung to life, accounting for eight of the 12 Red Sox runs in a 12-2 hammering of the Tribe.

The biggest blow to the Indians, and most encouraging to the Sox, was JD Drew’s grand slam to center in the opening frame to put the Sox up 4-0. Boston supplied another power surge in the third inning to put this game away early and added two more in the eighth to set the stage for Sunday night’s Game seven showdown.

There were some concerns, to be sure, about the value that Drew brought to this club. Drew produced 11 home runs and 64 RBIs during the regular season and had gone 1-11, including 0-for 6 with runners in scoring position, during the post-season. Whether the well traveled outfielder was worth the $70 million the Sox plunked down, his bat paid huge dividends last night, driving in six of Boston’s 12 runs.

Now attention turns to another Boston enigma: how their $103 million locomotive, Daisuke Matsuzaka, has failed to get through five innings in two post-season starts. In Game three of the ALCS, Dice K was touched up for four runs in a 4-2 loss at Jacobs Field.

After another disappointing outing, Matsuzaka was clearly shaken and despondent after Game 3, so much so that it caught the eye of Schilling. Schilling noticed glitches in Daisuke’s delivery and according to the Boston Globe, that’s when Schilling became teacher, and Dice K his disciple. Schilling pointed out that Daisuke was failing to throw strikes with his fastball, while the Tribe waited to jump on the pitches he was able to throw for strikes: namely, his changeup and slider.

How effective a teacher Schilling is, or more importantly, how attentive a listener D-K really is, will be determined Sunday, when he and Jake Westbrook square off in a Game 7 shootout at Fenway.

The Indians, once up three games to one, have to be stunned by how their two 19- game prized stallions have wilted heading into the home stretch. For the second game in the series, Boston pounded Fausto Carmona. Last night it was for seven earned runs, and unlike Game two, which lasted until the wee hours of the morning, the offense wasn’t able to bail him out.

Even more alarming for the Tribe was the collapse of the bullpen, particularly Rafael Perez, who was tagged for three hits and two runs after just 16 pitches.

So now it’s a one-game series. Both bullpens will be on high alert, and we shouldn’t be surprised, so they tell us, to see CC Sabathia, who’s never worked out of the bullpen, or Game five sensation, Josh Beckett. Beckett has a memorable postseason performance already under his belt, pitching four innings of relief for the Florida Marlins in Game seven of the 2003 NLCS against the Chicago Cubs, after having pitched a shutout in Game five.

www.billlucey.com

Jake Westbrook

• Right-handed starting pitcher
• Cleveland Indians

Boston Red Sox Outlook

Pitcher Plan

Westbrook pitched well against the Red Sox in Game four, allowing two runs, seven hits and three walks in 6.2 innings. He’ll need to repeat this performance in Game seven by keeping his sinking fastball low and to both sides of the strike zone early in the count.

Westbrook is not a dominant pitcher; he doesn’t have the “stuff” of a Josh Beckett or CC Sabathia. Westbrook is a command-type pitcher who will nibble around the corners, hoping to get the Red Sox to swing out of the zone. In Game seven, he’ll need to locate his secondary pitches (slider and change-up) far enough out of the zone to prevent the Red Sox from teeing off, yet close enough to the corners to get them to bite.

Overall, look for Westbrook to stay low in the zone and focus on hitting the corners with both his fastball and off-speed pitches. Given that the ALCS is now a best of one series, look for Cleveland manager, Eric Wedge, to have an especially quick hook if Westbrook is keeping his pitches up or out over the plate.

Best Match-up

If Westbrook can do what he does best, keeping the ball down in the strike zone with his sinking fastball, slider and change-up, he could have success against high ball hitters like Mike Lowell and Ramirez. Ramirez is hitting .500 (8-16) against him, so Westbrook absolutely must execute low in the zone.

Worst Match-up

If he doesn’t have good movement with his fastball and his changeup isn’t deceptive, David Ortiz, Eric Hinske (5-12 life time against Westbrook), Coco Crisp (6-8), and Jason Varitek (3-6), all of whom are good low ball hitters, could have lots of success. Look for Red Sox manager, Terry Francona, to start Jacoby Ellsbury in center over Crisp, who went 0-4 in Game four against Westbrook.

Keys to Success

1. Keep the ball low, low and low.
2. Westbrook needs to use his change-up more often to left-handed batters to keep them off balance.
3. He needs to work at a good pace, which will allow him to get into a rhythm and repeat his pitches.
4. Westbrook’s pitching fundamentals must consist of staying back over the rubber thus creating good movement with his pitches, especially his fastball.
5. He must avoid walks, especially to the less dangerous seven, eight and nine hitters (catcher Jason Varitek, outfielder Coco Crisp and shortstop Julio Lugo). Westbrook will be putting the ball in play a lot, so he can’t afford to put people on base via walks.

Overall Scouting Report

Westbrook recovered from a brutal start (7.96 ERA in April) to become a consistent starter in August and September. He finished the year 6-9 with a 4.32 ERA, striking out 93 and walking 55 in 152 innings. He allowed an opponents’ batting average of .276.

Westbrook is a groundball type pitcher, who relies on pitching to contact with pitch movement. He throws five pitches: fastball, cut fastball, slider, curve and change-up. His sinking fastball is his best pitch. If he leaves anything up in the strike zone, he can get hit hard.

Westbrook rates a “60″ on the scouting 20-80 scale, which evaluates raw pitching tools.  By comparison, Johan Santana of the Minnesota Twins gets a 75.  Based on his raw pitching tools including the scouting evaluation of his historical performance, we categorize Westbrook as “Average” on our category marginal/key role/average/good/premium/elite scale.

Strengths

Westbrook works fast and throws strikes. He works at a good tempo, which means better defense (a defense that is ready will play better!). His best pitch is his sinking fastball. Can get groundball outs for double plays.

Weaknesses

Westbrook has to pitch to contact because he is not a strikeout pitcher. He is unable to change the pitching zone to complement his best pitches. In other words, he cannot maintain the power of his fastball anywhere but down in the strike zone.

Fastball (87-92 mph)

• Movement: Westbrook has good sinking action on his fastball. It will also show tailing action.
• Command: He’ll throw his sinker to both sides of the plate, but his best command is to his arm-side.
• Plan: Westbrook will pitch to contact with his fastball more than any other pitch. He will attempt to get early strikes with his fastball down in the zone.

Cut Fastball (86-88)

• Movement: Westbrook’s cut fastball has average movement to his glove-side. There will be times when his cutter will show some depth to it.
• Command: He throws his cut fastball to his glove-side, and he has average command over it.
• Plan: Westbrook will pitch to contact with his cut fastball in hitter counts (1-0, 3-1, 2-0). He will use it primarily to left-handed hitters.

Slider (81-84)

• Movement: It has small, quick break to it. Westbrook will add depth when throwing it down and inside to the back-foot of left-handed hitters.
• Command: Westbrook will throw his slider to both sides of the plate, but he has his best command to his glove-side.
• Plan: His slider is used as an out-pitch to both righties and lefties. It is his best swing and miss pitch and he uses it off the plate to his glove-side.

Change-up (79-83)

• Movement: His change-up has tailing action to it and small sink to his arm-side.
• Command: Westbrook commands his change-up best to his arm-side and uses it down in the strike zone.
• Plan: The majority of his change-ups are used against left-handed hitters. It is a good outpitch for him when he has consistent arm action and arm speed.

Curve (75-80)

• Movement: Westbrook’s curve has average depth but below average rotation; it has 11-5 type break to it.
• Command: He throws his curve to his glove-side, and he is capable of throwing it for strikes most of the time.
• Plan: Westbrook’s curveball is basically a show pitch used to throw strikes early in the count. He will use it more often the second time through the batting order.

Pitching Mechanics (A)

Westbrook is able to repeat his delivery due to the fact that he has good awareness of his mechanics and control of his balance over the rubber. He has to stay back in order for his arm to get extended out in front. This creates good sinking action as well as bite on his slider. When he doesn’t stay back during the game he will make adjustments by using different pitch types such as a cut fastball and change-up.

8:00: Here we go. Can Carmona get more of his pitches in the strike zone so the Red Sox have to start chasing the sinker? Can Schilling fool and frustrate the Indians more effectively than he did in Game Two?

8:04: Ellsbury starts for Crisp. Defensively I don’t think it matters. Offensively it might be a slight upgrade, but that’s putting a lot of importance on a handful of major league at bats by Ellsbury. I think he’s going to be a good player but I also think the hue and cry to get him in the line-up is essentially the same as clamoring for the back-up quarterback. The guy who’s NOT playing always looks better.

8:18: Joe and Tim make it through the pre-game chat without making me want to throw the remote at the tv. Maybe being forced to pay attention to them because I’m keeping this game log won’t be as bad as I thought.

8:26: It takes three replays to finally get the “down the line” angle on Sizemore’s foul ball? Did Fox forget they had a camera over there?

8:30: 1-2-3 for Schilling including a strikeout of Hafner who continues to struggle.

8:38: “A terrifying clutch hitter”. Obviously, McCarver talking about Oritz. Hate to belabor the point but Ortiz is a terrifying hitter no matter what the situation. Chicken this is egg, egg this is chicken. More importantly, Carmona looks the same as he did in Game 2 so far. Everything off the plate to the arm side.

8:46: Hitters this year on 0-2 count batting .180. Manny 4 for 9 in the playoffs. “He’s fearless with two strikes” -McCarver. For his career? .178. “Small sample size” -Caimano. Make it 4 for 10.

8:51: GRAND SLAM DREW! How do you think Red Sox nation likes that signing now?

9:01: Martinez lead-off homer. Please don’t let McCarver talk about big innings and lead-off homers again.

9:15: McCarver praises Pedroia going to third on a ground ball in front of him. Isn’t the conventional wisdom that you only run to third if the ball is hit BEHIND you? This is why us “stats geeks” hate the conventional wisdom. It’s only “wise” when it works.

9:29: Schilling escapes two on none out jam retiring Hafner to end the inning. In the credit where credit is due department, I’d have to agree with McCarver on Hafner getting caught in between.

9:36: Back-to-back walks to open the third for Carmona and it looks like Perez is getting up in the pen. If Carmona can’t get out of this inning it’s going to be interesting to see how Wedge manages his bullpen for the rest of the game. He has to manage with one eye on this game and one eye on game 7.

9:38: Drew rips a single. That’s four RBI and there goes Fausto.

9:44: “Cleveland relievers have retired 19 of 27 first batters faced.” I assume this means the first batter they faced after coming into the game. I have absolutely no idea if this is any good. It seems, frankly, that this would be a bit low, but more to the point why didn’t Fox give me any context for this stat to let me know if it’s any good or not. Oh, I get it, Joe implies that it’s good so I should take his word for it.

9:47: Perez clearly isn’t going to be the answer tonight. 8-1 Sox. Getting to be decision time for Wedge. It looks like you have to burn Perez and hope he can get out of this inning. Then you have to hope you can get through the rest of the game with two more arms so you have your normal bullpen ready for tomorrow.

9:53: You know it’s gonna be ugly when balls start bouncing off people’s heads. Of course, it’s pretty tough to miss Youkilis’ extra large melon, but… 10-1 and there goes Perez who managed to get one out. Laffey in the game. Why are you burning another left hand arm? Assuming Wedge is hoping to get as many innings as possible from this guy it leaves him with Fultz and Perez as your lefties in the pen tomorrow. Perez has been, well, disappointing so far against the Sox and Fultz walked the only two batters he faced.

10:01: Inning finally over. Another half hour half inning. Thank God I volunteered to do my first game log in a game that looks to be a four hour blowout. Guess that leaves me more time to make fun of Tim.

10:07: Lugo double and then triple clutches trying to decide if Manny is really going to field Garko’s pop-up. Manny is an absolute menace in the field.

10:17: Great catch by Sizemore. If a tree falls in the forest and there’s nobody to hear it does it make a sound?

10:27: Hey, was that “Angels Wanna Wear My Red Shoes” in the fade out from the top of the fifth? Nothing like a little Elvis Costello to perk me up in the midst of a rout.

10:33: This is what’s so great about baseball. The Indians make three great plays in the infield in the bottom of the fifth; exactly the kind of plays they didn’t make in the first inning. I’m not saying they should have made those plays in the first, but if those balls are hit just a few inches differently Pedroia and Youkilis are retired then as they are in the fifth. Instead they get hits and it’s 4-0.

10:46: Am I wrong or wouldn’t tomorrow be Beckett’s normal “throw day”? Andy Pettite pitched in relief twice between starts this year. It used to be common for starters to do this. I concede that it’s unusual in today’s game, but let’s not make this the baseball equivalent of walking on the moon. Even if he’s available to do it, the more interesting question is under what circumstances would he come into the game? Does this mean that Daisuke is going to be on an extremely short leash? It doesn’t make a lot of sense to me to bring in Beckett if you’re already down 5-0, and I don’t think the Sox are going to use him just because they can if Daisuke gives them six or seven good innings.

11:00: Maybe it’s just me, but I can’t imagine there’s a single GM who’s watching this game and saying to themselves “By golly, Schilling’s still got it. I guess I’m going to have to increase my offer.”

11:03: Yes Joe, it’s important that Laffey has eaten so many outs. Thank you for pointing this out. It became the lone remaining strategic consideration in this game about ninety minutes ago but you and Tim failed to identify it until now.

11:23: I’m trying to decide what the difference is between the “tuned up” Borowski and the “out of tune” Borowski. Neither of them appears to be very good. Maybe Wedge will have a revelation overnight and decide to use his best reliever, Betancourt, as his closer if he needs one in Game 7.

11:34: Wow! Is this THE Eric Gagne? Guess we’ll be seeing everybody back here tomorrow night.

Curt Schilling

• Right-handed starting pitcher
• Boston Red Sox

Indians Outlook

Pitcher Plan

Schilling got tossed around in his Game two ALCS start versus Cleveland, allowing five earned runs and nine hits in just 4.2 innings. In his Game six re-match with Cleveland starter Fausto Carmona, Schilling will try do what Red Sox starter Josh Beckett did, and that is establish his fastball early in the count. He’ll try to get outs with his off-speed pitches in the order of split-finger, slider/curve and change-up.

After one trip through the Indians lineup, Schilling will need to make an adjustment because Indians hitters will be looking for the first pitch fastball. He’ll need to work first pitch off-speed pitches into his repertoire.

This is an important game for both Schilling and the Red Sox. A loss ends the Red Sox season, pre-maturely in the eyes of the team and its fans, and likely ends the Red Sox career of the free-agent-to-be Schilling. Schilling is 8-2 with a 2.23 ERA lifetime in the playoffs. Does the soon-to-be 41-year-old have one more big postseason start left?

Best Match-up

Hitters with big holes in their swing such as shortstop Jhonny Peralta and first baseman Ryan Garko should be good match-ups for Schilling. Now that Schilling lacks the electric stuff from his younger days and can’t simply dominate hitters, he focuses more on exploiting the weaknesses of particular hitters. Peralta and Garko are a combined 1-9 (.111) lifetime against Schilling.

Worst Match-up

Schilling will have a harder time with hitters capable of wearing him down and getting deep in the count. Schilling doesn’t like to issue walks (just 23 in 151 innings), so if designated hitter Travis Hafner and outfielder Grady Sizemore (both with over 100 walks in 2007) can get deep in the count, Schilling may throw up a good one to hit. Hafner and catcher Victor Martinez are a combined 8-17 (.417) lifetime against Schilling.

Keys to Success

1. Schilling must use his fastball inside off of the plate against aggressive Indians hitters. This will enable him to use his slower (off-speed) pitches more effectively.
2. He needs to use his off-speed pitches in the strike zone early in the count to keep his pitch count down and keep the Indians from sitting on first pitch fastballs.
3. Schilling must keep the runners close when they are on base. The Indians will run aggressively throughout the series. Rather than trying to be quicker to the plate with his pitches (a plan that would result in poor mechanics and therefore poor pitches), Schilling (and catcher Jason Varitek) should select a more effective pitch sequence. For example, with a runner on first and a count such as 1-1 or 2-2, Schilling should use a fastball instead of a slider or curve. Off-speed pitches take longer to get to the catcher - between .02 and .05 seconds slower than a fastball. And that’s the difference in a “bang/bang” play at second.

Full Scouting Report

Overall

Curt Schilling is an Elite major league pitcher. However, at 40 he has lost velocity and life on his fastball. He continues to make good adjustments during the middle of the game with his other off-speed-speed pitches, but he is not getting away with mistakes over the middle of the plate like he used to. Schilling is one of the best competitors in the game. He doesn’t like to come out of games and doesn’t like to lose. He’s got a lot to say off the field, but he’s a big game pitcher and looks like he still has something left for the postseason.

Schilling rates a 65 on the scouting 20-80 scale, which evaluates raw pitching tools. By comparison, Johan Santana of the Minnesota Twins gets a 75. Based on his raw pitching tools combined with his historical performance, we categorize Sabathia as “Elite” on a marginal/key role/average/good/premium/elite scale.

Strengths

Though he is no longer Boston’s ace (Josh Beckett earned that title this year), Schilling is a big game type of pitcher. He has excellent mound presence and wants to be the guy with the ball and the game on the line. He has the ability to adjust to hitters in the middle of a game and he works with five pitches including a plus out-pitch with his split finger. Schilling does a very good job of mixing his pitch sequences.

Weaknesses

Schilling has lost velocity off his fastball and needs more command to be effective. He can no longer go as deep into games as he once did. Defensively, he doesn’t get off the mound as well as he used to.

Fastball (87-93 mph)

• Movement: His fastball used to be his best pitch. Now it’s a straight fastball with little life. He’ll use a two-seam and four-seam fastball. At times, Schilling will cut his fastball inside to lefties.
• Command: He’ll use his fastball to both sides of the plate. He will not hesitate to throw it inside off the plate to make room for his off-speed pitches.
• Plan: Lately he’s been adding velocity to his fastball late in the count. He tends to start hitters away with a low 87/88 mph then goes to 91/92 mph with two strikes.

Cut Fastball (85-88 mph)

• Movement: When he doesn’t have a good fastball he will use a cut fastball. It is a small cutter but he commands it well.
• Command: He only uses it to his glove-side and will either keep it on the edge or throw it inside to left-handed hitters.
• Plan: He will use his cut fastball inside to left-handed hitters to make room on the outer half of the plate for his off-speed pitches. He uses it mainly in hitter counts (1-0, 2-0).

Curve (74-78 mph)

• Movement: It is an average curve with good 12-6 rotation and average depth to it.
• Command: Schilling commands his curve when it is in the middle of the zone. He doesn’t expect to get a lot of swings from this pitch. Hitters are unlikely to see two curves in the same at-bat.
• Plan: He will use his curve early in the count and rarely tries to finish a hitter with it unless he’s a bad breaking ball hitter. He won’t throw as many curve balls first time around the order unless he gets hit hard.

Slider (81-85 mph)

• Movement: When it is right, Schilling’s slider has average depth and quick late break to it.
• Command: Many times he is unable to be consistent with it because he can’t maintain his release point out front. He uses it to right-handers as an out-pitch out of the zone glove-side. He tends to throw more strikes with his slider to his arm-side.
• Plan: He throws his slider only when he feels he can throw it with some depth. Lately he is using it more to backdoor left-handed hitters when ahead in the count.

Change-up (81-84 mph)

• Movement: Recently he’s shown much more confidence in his changeup and has been getting more swings and misses from it. It is a small split grip type change-up that he is able to throw for strikes.
• Command: Schilling is able to throw his change-up for strikes and most are near the center of the plate.
• Plan: He’s not afraid to throw it back to back, and he’ll use it in hitter counts most times. More consistent speed has created more deception for the batter.

Split Finger (80-84 mph)

• Movement: His split is his best out-pitch, and if he doesn’t have good movement with it, he is in trouble. His pitch usually has good downward movement and it will show small tail.
• Command: He does a good job of commanding this pitch down in the strike zone. When his split is right, it will be a ball down and - of the strike zone.
• Plan: Schilling needs to be in good shape to throw this pitch effectively. This allows him to consistently get to his proper release point, which enables him to keep the ball down and out of the zone with good movement.

Pitching Mechanics (A)

Schilling has great awareness of his mechanics. He is able to make adjustments in the middle of a game, and over the years he hasn’t needed a lot of coaching. He has been able to maintain good balance, and he knows the importance of a good follow-through.

Fausto Carmona

• Right-handed starting pitcher
• Cleveland Indians

Red Sox Outlook

Pitching Plan

Carmona came up small in Game two of the ALCS against Boston, allowing four earned runs, four hits and five walks in just four inning. Fortunately for Carmona, the Indians bullpen (with the exception of Rafael Perez) kept them in the game until the offense erupted for seven runs in the 11th inning.

Carmona’s critical problem in Game two was his control. For Game six he needs to focus on getting his excellent sinker in the strike zone on the first pitch. The good news for Carmona is that the Red Sox will likely be taking the first pitch, especially the first time through the order. Getting ahead in the count will allow Carmona to add velocity to his sinker and to throw his change-up and slider.

Best Match-up

If Carmona is executing his pitches properly, he will do well against high ball hitters such as second baseman Dustin Pedroia, and third baseman Mike Lowell. Even though both had strong regular seasons, they figure to have difficulties against Carmona’s pitches low in the zone. Based on his poor regular season numbers and his strength in the upper part of the strike zone, outfielder Manny Ramirez would also figure to be a good match-up for Carmona. But, given how hot Ramirez is, Carmona might want to pitch around him.

Worst Match-up

Carmona pitched eight shutout innings in his only regular appearance against the Red Sox this year, so it’s difficult from a statistical perspective to identify against whom he matches up poorly. From a scouting perspective, hitters who are capable of hitting balls down in the zone, especially those with power, are better suited to hit Carmona. Designated hitter David Ortiz is one such hitter, though he is a “worst match-up” for most pitchers, regardless of what they throw. Ortiz is 2-4 with one home run and three RBIS in his career against Carmona.

Keys to Success

1. Somehow Carmona must tame the slugger tandem of Ortiz and Ramirez. It won’t be easy. In Game one against CC Sabathia and a slew of relievers, Ortiz and Ramirez reached base in all ten of their plate appearances. In Game two against Carmona, they went 1-2 with two walks. Carmona should go very high in the zone against Ortiz and very low in the zone against Carmona, and he shouldn’t be afraid to leave those pitches slightly out of the zone. It’s a better choice to pitch around Ortiz and Ramirez and take chances against third baseman Mike Lowell and right fielder JD Drew, especially with Carmona’s sinker.
2. Carmona needs to have good movement on his fastball, especially to left-handed hitters like outfielder Coco Crisp and catcher Jason Varitek, both of whom have the tendency to roll over sinking fastballs.
3. Carmona should not rush his delivery to home plate with runners in scoring position. His release time is quick enough and rushing his delivery will cause him to elevate his fastball.

Full Scouting Report

Overall

At just 23 years old, Fausto Carmona has already emerged as a potential ace. In his first full season, he went 19-8 with a 3.06 ERA. He tied for second in the majors in wins and finished fifth in ERA.

Carmona has an electric fastball with a lot of movement. He works fast and tries to keep his pitches down in the strike zone. He has one of the best sinking fastballs in the game and generates a lot of ground balls. Under the keen eye of pitching coach Carl Willis, Carmona has stabilized his pitching mechanics, enabling him to repeat his arm slot more consistently and producing better pitches and better results.

Carmona rates a 60 on the scouting 20-80 scale, which evaluates raw pitching tools. By comparison, Johan Santana of the Minnesota Twins gets a 75. Based on his raw pitching tools and actual results, we categorize Carmona as “Good” on a marginal/key role/average/good/premium/elite scale. A few more years of production like 2007 and Carmona will move to “Premium”.

Strengths

Carmona has plus tailing action to his fastball, which includes a lot of sink and velocity up to the mid 90’s. He is deceptive with a lot of arm and leg movements coming at the hitter. It is very difficult to pick up his release point.

Weaknesses

He has a tendency to get anxious when runners are in scoring position, causing him to rush toward the plate and get his pitches up in the strike zone. He was inexperienced in post-season play going into the ALDS, but he answered the bell there.

Fastball (91-96 mph)

• Movement: His fastball shows hard tailing action and plus sink when down in the zone.
• Command: He does a good job of keeping his fastball down in the zone. He works both sides of the plate but is more comfortable throwing his fastball to his arm side.
• Plan: Carmona will look to get ahead in the count and pitch to contact with his fastball.

Slider (80-86 mph)

• Movement: His slider will show good depth at times and is used best to his glove-side of the plate.
• Command: He has inconsistent command with his slider. Most of his sliders in the strike zone have below average depth.
• Plan: Carmona really tries to keep the slider down, and as a result he can bounce some of them to home plate. When he can command his slider he’ll use it off the plate to his glove-side to get swings and misses from right-handed hitters.

Change-up (84-87 mph)

• Movement: Carmona’s change-up will show some tail in the strike zone and show good sink when used as an out-pitch. This pitch is a plus pitch and has the potential to get a lot better.
• Command: Carmona commands this pitch down and to his arm-side of the plate.
• Plan: He is most comfortable using his change-up to left-handed hitters as his off-speed pitch. He rarely throws a change-up in the strike zone to right-handed hitters.

Pitching Mechanics (B)

Carmona’s biggest improvement in 2007 was adjusting his pitching mechanics to slow his delivery and keep his weight on his back side prior to delivering his pitches. He’s been able to repeat his delivery, which has helped him become a consistent starter.

http://www.billlucey.com/

Load up the bus; pack up your belongings, the ALCS is headed back to Boston.

Josh Beckett made sure of it, by doing what no other Boston pitcher, thus far, has managed to do: silence the Tribe bats enough to give the offense a chance to wear down an opposing pitcher. The result: a convincing 7-1 beating of the Tribe at Jacobs Field. 

When Kevin Youkilis deposited C.C. Sabathia’s 4th pitch of the night over the left field wall, to put the Sox up 1-0, it marked only the first time this series Boston scored first.

The Indians, who seem to have an answer for everything, stormed back in the bottom of the first, and had runners on the corners with nobody out. But like he’s done so many times before, Beckett worked his magic and escaped the threat, surrendering only a run. 

Down three games to one and clinging to dear life, the Sox put their hopes squarely on the 27 year-old pitcher’s shoulders, and wouldn’t you know it, it worked.  This year’s top Cy Young Award candidate had his whole repertoire on display, striking out 11 - tying his post season record. He surrendered just five hits and one walk in eight innings of dazzling work.

Despite a dark, threatening cloud perched over the Boston dugout, knowing full well only 5 teams have bounced back after being down three games to one, the Sox also knew if they were going down, they were going down with their best at the wheel. After all, the Boston ace is no stranger to high pressure situations. 
        

Beckett stunned the Yankees in their own yard in Game 6 of the 2003 World Series, throwing a 5-hit shut out to give the Florida Marlins their second world series championship.
         

So the bottom line, good news for Beantown is the series swings back to Fenway on Saturday. The bad news is Josh Beckett won’t be on the mound.

If Boston hopes to lock horns with the Colorado Rockies in the World Series, they’re going to have to get there without the right hander’s help. It’s now up to Curt Schilling, who was pounded for five runs in game two, to shut down a powerful Tribe lineup. It’s no easy task, but Schilling is used to filling tall orders.

When he was with Arizona, the battle tested veteran pitched the decisive Game 7 against the New York Yankees in the 2001 World Series, his third start of the series. Though he didn’t win the game, he kept his team within striking distance, enough to allow the D-Backs to get to Mariano Rivera in the ninth in a memorable 3-2 stunner at Bank One Ballpark in Arizona.

Before Boston broke the game open in the 7th and 8th inning; Beckett and Sabathia were locked in battle like two gladiators. It was just a matter of who was going to melt first in another warm night at Jacob’s Field. C.C., once again, wasn’t able to deliver. He was banged around for four earned runs through six innings, and the final damages could have been much worse had the Sox not stranded 7 runners through the first 5 innings.

With a day of traveling before Game 6, and surely heaps of media attention to come between now and then, the big questions centers on how welcome Manny Ramirez will be when his plane touches down at Logan Airport.

Manny was his typical Manny self during his stay in Cleveland, which is to say he was being his usual classless, uninspiring self, telling reporters it really doesn’t matter if the Sox drop the Series to the Tribe, “There’s always next year’’ which was preceded by the all-star’s arrogant home run trot in Game 4. With his arms held high in the air before he even stepped out of the batter’s box – an all too familiar vignette, the slugger had very little to be arrogant about with his team still down by 4 runs.

Ramirez’s pathetic display of gazing at his towering drive to the right center field fence in Game 5, only to see it ruled not a home run, and never getting past first, almost brought Fox TV broadcaster Tim McCarver popping out his seat, as voiced in disbelief “how is possible for Manny to be standing at first, I ask you?”

In the meantime, David Ortiz, not exactly Maury Wills, was alert enough to motor all the way from first and cross the plate to put Boston up 2-1. The no-home-run call and Ramirez’s careless base running blunder might be significant on two counts. 

• If the Sox are eliminated, Manny’s lack of hustle and cavalier attitude during such an important series might cause Boston fans to demand a divorce from their power hitter, on the grounds of irreconcilable differences

• Manny’s blast might also might bring a fresh round of debate whether instant replay should be introduced into Major League Baseball.

But I’m not sure if even instant replay would have decisively determined if Ramirez deserved to circle the bases.

8:04-Predictably TBS starts their coverage tonight by talking about Joe Torre and quickly moves into a Matt Holliday interview to talk about the Rockies. (Insert Matt Holliday cone head joke here). Hopefully at some point they will mention the fact that game five of the ALCS will be played tonight and the Red Sox are a loss away from elimination.

8:12-Interesting stat out of Joe Girardi, only Bob Gibson has a higher percentage of strikeouts to batters than Josh Beckett in postseason baseball. Oh wow, Kevin Millar is like a nightmare that won’t go away. I can’t decide if his promo is a good sign or a bad one, but I’m leaning towards bad. Quick note from the South Florida-Rutgers game that I’m checking at commercial breaks because I’m afraid of what might happen to my brain if I see Dane Cook as the all-knowing spokesperson for postseason baseball; apparently their quarterback has a Mohawk. Call me crazy but I just don’t see a team that is lead by a quarterback sporting a Mohawk going undefeated. Just something about it doesn’t add up.

8:25-Youuuuuuuuuuuuuuk. Youkilis crushes an inside fastball for a solo home run and the Sox strike first for the first time all series. Tim McCarver gives us the key to the game. For the Sox it is to “win or see you in Fort Myers” and for Cleveland it is to “Finish the Job”. Where would be without the Fox keys to the game?

8:30-Big defensive mistake by Kenny Lofton. He takes an awful path to the ball on a Manny Ramirez base hit and it allows Manny to get into scoring position. Only Tim McCarver could find a way to work in that Manny doesn’t run hard out of the box when he hits a home run in that at bat. Luckily for Lofton it doesn’t cost the team because Manny gets tossed out at the plate on a bloop hit by Mike Lowell. I can only hope Manny ran through a sign there. With Gutierrez playing shallow in right he has no chance to score on a play like that.

8:37-Clay from Newport Harbor, I mean Grady Sizemore, gets things started for the Tribe with a bloop double down the left field line. If the Indians are going to get hits like that all night I’m going to throw my laptop out the window. Hats off to Pino’s Pizza at Cleveland Circle, they put together some nice slices for tonight’s game.

8:48-Bottom of the order coming up for the Sox. Kielty starts things off by going down looking on a 3-2 pitch. Considering the types of at bats out six through nine hitters have been having I thought he did a pretty nice job. *Note: Anytime I get enthused by a strikeout that is a very good indication of the lack confidence I have in the bottom of our order.

8:55-With the exception of V-Tek being hit by a pitch the bottom of the order goes down without so much as a speck of trouble for Sabathia. Crisp is hitting .180 since September 12 with a .212 OBP during that time, how to stick with the hot hand Tito.

9:03-Buck and McCarver are outraged that Beckett came up and in with a fastball on Gutierrez. Frankly I couldn’t be more thrilled by it. Are pitchers not allowed to brush guys off the plate anymore?

9:16-Youk hits into the ninth Red Sox double play of the series. I’m shocked Fox hasn’t shown us the graphic for “Most Double Plays Hit Into In LCS History” to see where the Sox stand. Seriously though, the double plays are killing the Sox. You can’t win a playoff series when you just kill innings with double plays.

9:20-Another Manny at bat another opportunity for McCarver to talk about how Manny walks out of the box when he hits a home run. Almost on cue Manny goes yard but the umps miss the call and Manny only ends up on first base. This is too weird to be a coincidence. I’m convinced McCarver is behind some sort of conspiracy theory. In other news the Sox were just robbed of a home run. Great. Get ready for a day of “do we need replay in baseball” during all the sports talk shows tomorrow. McCarver won’t let it go. It’s hard to believe this is the same guy Deion Sanders dumped a bucket of water on.

9:33-After three innings Beckett has five K’s and is really baffling Indian hitters with his curveball. Hopefully he can go seven innings and get the ball to Papelbon. Personally I think Pap has to be prepared to pitch six innings in the next three games. No reason to rest him now.

9:41-It’s official: COCO CRISP IS KILLING THE SOX. He failed to get the bunt down with two on and no outs and right on schedule Lugo grounds into a double play to end the threat. At this point anyone who thinks Jacoby shouldn’t be playing is just wrong. It’s gone beyond opinion; at this point it’s just a fact. To win a championship a team must execute fundamentals and that is something the Red Sox have failed to do all postseason. From where I’m sitting it doesn’t look like it will matter if the Sox win tonight. They have been carried by Beckett, Manny and Ortiz and in games six and probably seven one third of that trio will not be playing.

9:49-We just got confirmation from a couple of five year old Indians fans that Manny’s ball was in fact in play. That’s very convincing, now I can relax.

9:53-The Yankees fans I live with (there are three of them) have come out of hibernation in hopes of seeing the Sox get eliminated. It’s bittersweet because I hate watching games with fans of opposing teams but also a relief because I haven’t seen any of them since game four of the ALDS and I’m glad to see they are still alive.

10:02-AHHHHHHHHHHH we are not getting the bounces tonight. Lowell misses a two run double by an inch or two. Those are the plays that make fans want to break down and just start crying their eyes out. Sabathia goes on to hit Lowell and Kielty takes him to 3-2 count before flying out to right to end the inning with the bases loaded. Frustrating game for the Sox right now, they are having good at bats against C.C but only have two runs to show for it. After Lowell’s ball bent foul, any Sox fan who believes in fate and sports might want to turn the game off at this point because it just doesn’t feel like the Sox night.

10:11-Loften tries to mix it up with Beckett on the way back to the plate after a fly out. Not really sure what to make of this. I’ll get back to it when I decide what it means.

10:18-What the hell is Julio Lugo doing? If he is going to range totally out of position to make a play on a ball he has to at least knock it down. What seemed like a quick 1-2-3 inning has turned into runners on the corners. Beckett blows Cabrera away to get out of the jam with 97 mph gas on the outside corner.

10:23-Bottom three coming up for the Sox. Here’s my goal: to force Sabathia to throw eighteen or more pitches this half inning. Regardless of what happens this inning I will consider it a huge success if Sabathia throws eighteen or more pitches.

10:27-My neighbor from Cleveland just dropped by to invite us next door for a few sodas. Too suspicious for my liking, I’m not taking the bait.

10:28-I counted eleven pitches for Sabathia, I knew my expectations were unrealistic.

10:35-Web MD coming through for us again. Tonight it showed us were the back is on the human body. Top of the order coming through for the Sox, it’s scary to say but this could be our last legit chance to add to our lead.

10:41-After a leadoff double by Pedroia, I think it a good time to admit I’m on the “Pedroia has hit the ball hard this series but ran into some tough luck” bandwagon. With our two, three and four hitters coming up the run MUST score. If the Sox do not get Pedroia across the place it could be the turning point of the game. Just as I finish that sentence Youk comes through for the second time tonight, this time with a triple in the right center field gap. Unreal effort by Sizemore to make a play on the ball but it was just out of his grasp. For the first time all game the Sox are the beneficiary of a few inches. Chance for the Sox to open it up here with a runner on third and no outs with Manny and Papi coming up and Sabathia out of the game.

10:49-Ortiz gets the runner in with a sac fly to Lofton in left. Lofton looked like he was giving an audition to play Willie Mays Hays in “Major League 4″ with that basket catch.

10:57-Question now is how Francona handles the pitching for the last three innings. I would check on Becket’s pitch count and how he feels after seven and go from there. If he has a manageable pitch count I’d send him out there to start the eighth with Papelbon ready to enter the inning at any point. Great move by the Tribe to get Beckett’s ex-girlfriend to sing the “National Anthem” before the game and “God Bless America” during the seventh inning stretch. I can see the Indians being trend setters with this one. If Tony Dungy is watching this game I wouldn’t be surprised if he is putting a call into Bridget Monahan to see if she is available to sing before the Colts week nine showdown the Patriots.

11:09-Through seven Beckett has given five hits and struck out ten. Can’t say enough about his performance this postseason. The Sox would likely be playing golf right now without him. Let’s hope he rests up for a potential game seven start.

11:22-Probably the best possible result from a Crisp-Lugo set of at bats. Coco reached on an error and Lugo bunted for a base hit. The Ortiz-Manny equivalent would be Papi hitting a grand slam followed by a solo shot in which Manny walks around all the bases and Tim McCarver passes out in shock.

11:26-Drew scores on a passed ball and the bottom third of the Sox order comes through at last! Hey, who cares if the most impressive at bat was a bunt hit by Lugo? We’ll take’em anyway we can get’em.

11:36-A bases loaded walk and an Ortiz sac fly gives the Sox a 7-1 heading into the eighth. I’d send in Okajima with Papelbon coming in at the first sign of trouble. Over on ESPN Rutgers just knocked off South Florida and proved my quarterback with a Mohawk theory only hours after it was on the books. More importantly Boston College controls its own destiny and if they win out they will be playing in the BSC National Championship game.

11:39-Beckett comes out to the mound for the eighth and gets a first pitch fly ball out from Sizemore. I can’t help but wonder what this means for his game seven availability. Considering he has thrown 100 pitches through seven and a third it is still a possibility.

12:07-Gutierez flies out to end the game as Papelbon pitches a scoreless bottom of the ninth to secure the 7-1 Boston win. There is not much more to say about Beckett. He is a few more great starts away from joining Boston legends Larry Bird, Tom Brady and David Ortiz as postseason folk heroes. Ted Williams said that when he walked down the street he wanted people to say “there goes the greatest hitter who ever lives.” Many would say he achieved that goal. Schilling has always said that if a former teammate of his were asked who they would have pitch if they needed someone to win one game he would be their choice. He has a chance to help his cause with an elimination game back in Boston. He may not be the pitcher he once was but I can’t think of many other guys I would want on the bump.

http://www.billlucey.com/

What started as a dream October for fans of America’s darlings - the New York Yankees and Chicago Cubs - has given way to broken hearts and shocked disbelief. And if the Cleveland Indians pull off another stunner in getting by the Boston Red Sox, a television executive’s nightmare is just around the corner, which could pit two small market underdogs in the Fall Classic. 

It was just last year when two other small market clubs, the St Louis Cardinals and Detroit Tigers squared off, drawing a mere 10.1 percent of the 111.4 million U.S. television households – an all-time low for a World Series.

On Tuesday, for the third game in a row, the Indians tore through Boston’s pitching staff, exploding for 7 runs in the 5th, for a 7-3 win. They sent another Boston starter, this time Tim Wakefield, into the dugout for an early shower before the 7th inning stretch.

The Sox did give a brief scare to the 44,008 fans gathered at Jacobs Field, when Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz, and Manny Ramirez banged consecutive solo shots off Paul Byrd and Jensen Lewis to cut the lead to four but they got no further.

The Indians are no strangers to back-to-back-to-back home runs. In the 1997 division series with the New York Yankees, Tim Raines, Derek Jeter and Paul O’Neill smacked consecutive home runs off the Tribe pitching – a first for post season play. The defending world champions won the battle, but lost the war, as the Indians won the series and advanced to play the Florida Marlins in the World Series.  They lost that World Series, just as they lost the 1995 Series to the Atlanta Braves.

With so much uncertainty surrounding the durability of Tim Wakefield, still on the mend from a shoulder injury, Sox fans breathed a sigh of relief as they watched the 41 year-old veteran silence the Indians bats. However, Wakefield, one of the last true knuckleballers in the game, gave up a home run to Casey Blake, deep into the night in the 5th, and the flood gates opened for seven runs. Again, Boston found themselves beaten down by a young talented explosive club, which is treating this series like it fully expects to win.

But the Tribe still has one more hurdle before advancing to the World Series, and it’s a monstrous one: they must beat 20-game winner Josh Beckett in Game 5 on Thursday night, with CC Sabathia taking the hill for the Tribe.

Even with a commanding three-games-to-one lead, Cleveland is staying clear of raising the pennant flag just yet.  They’ve lived through too many disasters, having their spirits towering, only to have it come crashing down: the Drive, the Fumble, the Shot, Blown Saves in World Series. Clevelanders are in their customary, “I’ll believe it when I see it’’ mode, having not celebrated a major sports title since December 27, 1964, when the Cleveland Browns stunned the Baltimore Colts. A World Series flag hasn’t been raised since 1948.

CC Sabathia

• Left-handed starting pitcher
• Cleveland Indians

Boston Outlook

Pitching Plan

Sabathia did not pitch well in his Game one start against the Red Sox. His control was off, as he walked five and hit a batter in 4.1 innings. Including the seven hits, Sabathia allowed a total of 13 runners.

In Game five, Sabathia will need to attack the strike zone against all Red Sox hitters not named Ortiz and Ramirez. He needs to do this with first-pitch fastballs and change-ups in the zone. Once ahead in the count, he’ll use his slider.

The Red Sox have only stolen two bases in the ALCS, both against Fausto Carmona, so the big lefty should be focused on the batters rather than runners, especially considering he has a good move to first.

Best Match-up

Sabathia is a nightmare for most left-handed hitters. He will pitch inside off the plate with his fastball, and he’ll use his slider in and out of the strike zone to get swings. He is very deceptive and it is more difficult for lefties to pick up his release point. JD Drew (0-3 with 3 strikeouts lifetime) will have a lot of trouble against him, so look for the Red Sox to start Bobby Kielty in right field again (.310 with two home runs and 7 RBIs during the regular season, 1-2 with a walk in Game one).

Worst Match-up

Right-handed hitters who can hit to the entire field will have a much easier time with Sabathia, especially if the hitters can handle breaking pitches. Leftfielder Manny Ramirez has killed Sabathia in his career, batting .571 with four home runs and seven RBIs. That’s good for a 1.894 OPS. In Game one against Sabathia, Ramirez was 2-2 with two RBIs and a walk.

Keys to Success

• Avoid the walks that plagued him in Game one. He needs to get his first-pitch fastballs and change-ups in the strike zone.
• Keep the fastball down. Sabathia had success throwing his fastball up in the strike zone to most of the Yankees. This won’t be the case against the Red Sox, since they have some very good high ball hitters: Ramirez, third baseman Mike Lowell, second baseman Dustin Pedroia, and catch Jason Varitek from the right side.
• He must pitch around Ramirez. Twenty-one career at-bats against Sabathia is a small sample size, but the results warrant a careful approach to the slugger.
• He needs to use his change-up as a compliment to his fastball and slider, especially in the middle counts.

Sabathia Scouting Report

Overall

Sabathia is the Indians’ number one starter and a likely top five finisher in the American League Cy Young Award. The 27-year-old tied for second in the majors with 19 wins, was fifth in the AL with a 3.21 ERA and led the majors with 241 innings pitched.

Sabathia throws three pitches: fastball, slider and change-up. He has a huge frame, which contributes to his pitch deception. Eventually, his weight will catch up to him and cause injuries.

Sabathia rates a 70 on the scouting 20-80 scale, which evaluates raw pitching tools. By comparison, Johan Santana of the Minnesota Twins gets a 75. Based on his raw pitching tools and actual results, we categorize Sabathia as “Premium” on a marginal/key role/average/good/premium/elite scale.

Strengths

Sabathia has a strong athletic frame, and he is a durable pitcher capable of supplying his team with quality starts and 200 plus innings each year. His fastball is explosive and his slider is an excellent out-pitch to left-handed hitters. His change-up improved significantly during 2007.

Weaknesses

Sabathia tends to elevate his fastball in the middle of the plate. His conditioning will be a major problem long-term.

Fastball (91-95 mph)

• Movement: His fastball is straight, but it shows plus life up in the strike zone. At times his fastball will show some cutting action into right-handed hitters.
• Command: Sabathia’s best command with his fastball is to his arm-side side of the plate. He does a nice job of using the top of the strike zone with two strikes on hitters.
• Plan: He uses his fastball to get ahead in the count. He’ll throw the fastball inside off the plate to set up his off-speed pitches, and he will use it up in the zone with two strikes.

Slider (82-85 mph)

• Movement: Sabathia’s slider will show average depth, but he’s also capable of sweeping it and changing the angle to left-handed hitters.
• Command: He can throw his slider to both sides of the plate. He can also bury it (back foot slider) to right-handed hitters out of the strike zone and get swings and misses.
• Plan: Sabathia doesn’t like to show his slider too soon. The first time around the order he’s more comfortable using his fastball and change-up. He will use his slider as an out-pitch more than any other, and he’ll use it both in and out of the strike zone.

Change-up (80-83 mph)

• Movement: His changeup will show some tailing action but not much. It will also ink when it is down and out of the strike zone.
• Command: His best command with this pitch is down and to his arm side.
• Plan: Sabathia will use his changeup early in the game. He’s most comfortable using it off his fastball and in hitter counts (1-0, 2-0). He has a lot of confidence in his changeup.

Pitching Mechanics (A)

Sabathia has improved his mechanics thanks to pitching coach Carl Willis. He has better balance over the rubber now that he is utilizing a pause in his pitching motion. This action limits his tendency to rush forward, and it has also created a consistent arm slot for the big left-hander.

Paul Byrd

• Right-handed starting pitcher
• Cleveland Indians

Boston Red Sox Outlook

Pitcher Plan

In his only start against the Red Sox this year, Byrd pitched the ideal “Paul Byrd game” – no walks and a bunch of stranded runners. In six innings, Byrd gave up one earned run (1.50 ERA), nine hits and no walks, while striking out just one. He executed his pitch location and kept the ball away from the middle of the Sox lineup.

That’s the recipe Byrd followed in his win in Game Four of the ALDS against the Yankees, and he’ll try to do it again against the powerful Red Sox line-up in Game Four of the ALCS.

Byrd will try to mix his pitches inside and out of the strike zone against the Red Sox. His ability to hold runners close at first base will slow whatever running game the Red Sox have. Byrd will try to stay away from outfielder Manny Ramirez and designated hitter David Ortiz. Expect Red Sox hitters who swing the bat well in Game Three on Monday to see a lot of pitches out of the strike zone from Byrd.

Best Match-up

Younger players with limited major league experience, such as second baseman Dustin Pedroia and outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, could have a difficult time against Byrd because of his ability to change speeds and angles on all his pitches. Younger players tend to be more aggressive, looking for fastballs to hit early. Byrd will show his fastball, but generally not in an area where it can be hit out of the park.

Worst Match-up

Experienced hitters, like Ramirez, Lowell and Ortiz, who can hit to the entire field will take away Byrd’s pitch options. By using the entire field, good hitters can allow the ball to travel further before starting their swing. This, in turn, gives them more time to identify Byrd’s off-speed pitches. Bobby Kielty (.333 batting average, four home runs and eight RBIs) has the best stats against Byrd, so it will be interesting to see if Red Sox manager Terry Francona goes with Kielty over JD Drew in right field, as he did in game one against CC Sabathia.

Keys to Success

1. Byrd must consistently change his pitch types and locations. The Red Sox are dangerous offensively, especially with Ramirez and Ortiz hitting so well, so Byrd must keep them off balance.
2. Byrd must work around hot Red Sox hitters, specifically Ramirez and Ortiz. Both are willing to take walks, but walks could be the lesser of two evils, meaning…
3. He must execute his pitching plan against the Red Sox number five and six hitters, Lowell and Drew/Kielty. These will be Byrd’s key outs.
4. To help keep the bases clear for the top of the order, Byrd must get the weaker hitting six, seven and eight hitters (catcher Jason Varitek, outfielder Coco Crisp and shortstop Julio Lugo) out. Byrd can’t put himself in a position where Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia are up with men on base and Ortiz and Manny are coming up.

Overall Scouting Report

Byrd is a command and contact type pitcher who has a very low strikeout rate. He went 15-8 this season, but he had a 4.59 ERA and struck out only 88 in 192.3 innings. Byrd has very good control (only 28 walks) and uses a variety of pitches and changes in velocity to compensate for his lack of power. He throws four pitches: fastball, slider, change-up and curve.

Byrd rates a “55″ on the scouting 20-80 scale, which evaluates raw pitching tools.  By comparison, Johan Santana of the Minnesota Twins gets a 75.  Based on his raw pitching tools including the scouting evaluation of his historical performance, we currently categorize Byrd as “Average” at this time on our category marginal/key role/average/good/premium/elite scale. 

Strengths

Byrd effectively employs deception, using different velocities on his pitches. It is difficult to predict his pitch sequences. He is capable of throwing all his pitches for strikes.

Weaknesses

Byrd is not overpowering. He doesn’t strike out many, and he doesn’t have a true out-pitch or swing and miss pitch.

Fastball (85-89 mph)

• Movement: He throws a two-seam fastball that shows tailing action, and he is able to create sink when pitching to contact. Byrd also throws a four-seam fastball that is straight with average life through the strike zone.
• Command: Byrd has good command of his fastball. He will use it to the sides of the plate and up in the strike zone.
• Plan: Byrd will throw his fastball off the plate and inside to hitters so he can set up his off-speed pitches.

Slider (78-82)

• Movement: He throws a small slider with small break and average rotation.
• Command: Byrd has above average command of this pitch. He gets best use of it when he throws it to his arm-side as a back-door slider to lefties.
• Plan: He will use it in and out of the zone depending on the hitters. Byrd is capable of throwing this pitch for strikes at any time, and he will drop down and pitch from a low three-quarter arm slot at times.

Change-up (73-79)

• Movement: His change-up has small tailing action to it and small sink to his arm-side.
• Command: Byrd commands his change-up best to his arm-side and uses it down in the strike zone. He can throw it for strikes in the zone or command it down and out of the zone.
• Plan: He uses it mainly to left-handed hitters and will throw his change-up in any count. Byrd doesn’t like to use his change-up as much the first time through the order.

Curve (72-76)

• Movement: Byrd has an average break to his curveball. He will change the angle and depth depending on the hitter.
• Command: He has good command of his curveball and is capable of throwing it to both sides of the plate and using it down and out of the strike zone.
• Plan: This pitch is used to change the eye level of the hitters. It will set up his sinking fastball and slider as out-pitches.

Pitching Mechanics (A)

Byrd uses a consistent tempo and rhythm when pitching. It helps him alleviate tension as well as repeat his delivery and arm slot. He gets in trouble when pitching from the stretch because he has a quick move to home plate and will hurry his delivery from time to time. Overall, Byrd does a good job of staying balanced and finishing off his pitches.

For game three of the ALCS I will be posting live comments as the game is being played. Please post your opinions and observations as you see fit.

I’ll be looking at all aspects of the game, from the crowd to the weather to specific plays to questionable calls. I will be also looking to make some predictions as to what decisions the managers should make.

Going into the game the focus has to be on Boston starter Daisuke Matsuzaka. Dice-K has yet to show he can be the dominate big game pitcher he was hyped up to be coming out of Japan.

While no one can take away his World Baseball Classic MVP performance, I always thought it was discouraging his supporters felt the need to mention his dominant high school career as proof of his worth. What pitcher in the major leagues didn’t dominate in high school? The minor leagues are filled with guys that carried their high schools to state championships and probably did so against more difficult competition.

Dice-K will have to put his high school glory days behind him and prove to Red Sox nation that he deserves the ball in the biggest games of the season. It will also be interesting to see what effect the crowd has on the game. Although the Sox played eighty-one road games, they had a strong contingent of their own fans present at almost all of their games. It is a certainty that the Jake will be a hostile environment with very few Sox fans able to gain access into the stadium.

Those are a few things to think about before the game. Both teams will view games three through five as a shorter, best of three series. The team that is able to take two of those games will be in great position to win the series heading back to Fenway.

Jake Westbrook

Editor’s note: Will submitted this article well before the ALCS, but yours truly failed to turn it around in a timely manner.  My apologies, Will.

In baseball, October is a harvest of drama when late-season rookie call-ups prove their mettle, when everyday players can become stars – when career utility men or rookies play the hero and season-long superstars sometimes swoon under playoff pressure.

Over the last 20 years, the greatest of October’s Mystery Men unquestionably has been Derek Jeter, who in his first postseason (and every one since) not only became Mr. Yankee but also Mr. Clutch. With Hall of Fame worthy playoff numbers, Jeter’s true value to the Yankees in the fall can’t be measured statistically. He not only has an uncanny ability to rise to the October occasion (2007 notwithstanding), but he also has an almost magical way of making the players around him better.

Part of the fun of watching the fall ball drama unfold is discovering that next Mystery Men – those players who will make the clutch hits, pitch the big games, and demonstrate that all-important leadership that takes their teams to Series glory. Here’s a list of some lesser-known lights whose play just might heat up those chilly October nights.

Cleveland Indians

Rafael Betancourt, RHP

• W-L: 5-1
• Saves: 2
• ERA: 1.41
• WHIP: 0.76

As one of baseball’s best setup men, Betancourt allowed only 59 base runners in 78.1 IP, while opponents are hitting a measly .185 AVG, with a .490 OPS. Betancourt features a 4-seam FB (92- 94), SL, and CH. He has struck out 78 (almost one per inning) and walked 9 (a K/BB of 8.96). His 30 holds are second in the American League. His presence has meant an almost perfect in-game transition to closer Joe Borowski, making the Indians a likely tough customer in October.

Ryan Garko, 1B

• OPS: .846
• HR: 21
• AVG: .293

The converted catcher has solidified the 1B position for Cleveland in 2007. The ascent of this high-energy player as the primary first baseman should surprise no one, considering his strong work ethic and love for the game. Over the second half of the season, no one has been more clutch in late-inning situations than Garko. With good splits and an above-average OBP, Garko provides right-handed stability to a team that can be vulnerable to left-handed pitching.

Garko has good numbers against both groundball pitchers (.336 AVG) and avg. f/g pitchers (.296 AVG). While it’s never easy facing the Yankees, especially in October, Garko looks like a Mystery Man in waiting, hitting between Victor Martinez and Johnny Peralta in the Indians lineup. Around the bag, he is more than adequate, despite somewhat limited range and average hands.

Boston Red Sox

Manny Delcarmen, RHP

• ERA: 2.20
• OPP OBP: .275

The uncertainties of Eric Gagne (poor performance) and Hideki Okajima (arm fatigue) have necessarily pushed Delcarmen to the forefront of the Boston bullpen. After being recalled on June 17, Delcarmen has demonstrated good consistency (WHIP of 1.05, and opponents OPS of .575, and late-inning, CLG WHIP of 1.03) and discipline for manager Terry Francona. Delcarmen is one of the franchise’s rising pitching stars, and the front office, after showing good discipline, is now reaping the benefits for not including him in any deadline deals

Delcarmen features an overpowering 4-seam FB (93- 97) CB (11-5 type break) and CH he has been using more to LH hitters as a swing-and-miss pitch. If he can throw his breaking stuff for strikes early, then he will be able to use the top of the strike zone for his fastball. If he can elevate his 95-plus fastball in the strike zone, hitters will find him very much an October Mystery Man.

Jacoby Ellsbury, OF

• AVG: .343
• OPS: .887
• SB: 9

When Manny Ramirez went down on August 28, Ellsbury’s developmental process, then in its final stages, was finished. He was expected to produce for a first-place Red Sox team, as they won their first division title since 1995. This is not an easy task to do anywhere, let alone in Boston with the added pressure of the New York Yankees breathing down your neck.

Results? A star may have been born in the process. Ellsbury looked like a mature pennant race veteran. As the post-season approaches, watch for the rise of his cult following in Boston.

How Francona keeps young Ellsbury in the lineup should be interesting – he can’t ignore the energy he brings to the team. Offensively, Ellsbury is Ichiroesque, aggressively slashing the ball to all fields, and demonstrating tremendous base-running instincts. He currently projects as outfield insurance and speed off the bench. A slightly above average centerfielder, Ellsbury can play both corners but has yet to play right field in a game.

Fausto Carmona

• Right-handed starter
• Cleveland Indians

Red Sox Outlook

Pitching Plan

As he demonstrated against the Yankees (and the gnats) in the ALDS, Fausto Carmona doesn’t buckle under pressure. And that’s a good thing, because with the Indians’ big loss to the Red Sox in Game one of the ALCS, Fausto Carmona is facing a lot of pressure. The Indians can’t afford going down 0-2, especially with Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd scheduled to pitch games three and four for the Indians.

Carmona’s plan for the Red Sox will be to continue to throw his fastball with good movement and then go with his off-speed pitches (slider and change-up) in the strike zone a little more than he did in the regular season. This will help keep the Red Sox sluggers off-balance and not allow them to sit on one pitch.

Best Match-up

If Carmona is executing his pitches properly, he will do well against high ball hitters such as second baseman Dustin Pedroia, and third baseman Mike Lowell. Even though both had strong regular seasons, they figure to have difficulties against Carmona’s pitches low in the zone. Based on his poor regular season numbers and his strength in the upper part of the strike zone, outfielder Manny Ramirez would also figure to be a good match-up for Carmona. But, given how hot Ramirez is, Carmona might want to pitch around him.

Worst Match-up

Carmona pitched eight shutout innings in his only appearance against the Red Sox this year, so it’s difficult from a statistical perspective to identify against whom he matches up poorly. From a scouting perspective, hitters who are capable of hitting balls down in the zone, especially those with power, are better suited to hit Carmona. Designated hitter David Ortiz is one such hitter, though he is a “worst match-up” for most pitchers, regardless of what they throw. Ortiz is 2-4 with one home run and three RBIS in his career against Carmona.

Keys to Success

1. Somehow Carmona must tame the slugger tandem of Ortiz and Ramirez. It won’t be easy. In Game one against CC Sabathia and a slew of relievers, Ortiz and Ramirez reached base in all ten of their plate appearances. Carmona should go very high in the zone against Ortiz and very low in the zone against Carmona, and he shouldn’t be afraid to leave those pitches slightly out of the zone. Though the walk route didn’t work out well in Game one, it’s still a better choice to pitch around Ortiz and Ramirez and take chances against third baseman Mike Lowell and right fielder JD Drew, especially with Carmona’s sinker.
2. Carmona needs to have good movement on his fastball, especially to left-handed hitters like outfielder Coco Crisp and catcher Jason Varitek, both of whom have the tendency to roll over sinking fastballs.
3. Carmona should not rush his delivery to home plate with runners in scoring position. His release time is quick enough and rushing his delivery will cause him to elevate his fastball.

Full Scouting Report

Overall

At just 23 years old, Fausto Carmona has already emerged as a potential ace. In his first full season, he went 19-8 with a 3.06 ERA. He tied for second in the majors in wins and finished fifth in ERA.

Carmona has an electric fastball with a lot of movement. He works fast and tries to keep his pitches down in the strike zone. He has one of the best sinking fastballs in the game and generates a lot of ground balls. Under the keen eye of pitching coach Carl Willis, Carmona has stabilized his pitching mechanics, enabling him to repeat his arm slot more consistently and producing better pitches and better results.

Carmona rates a 60 on the scouting 20-80 scale, which evaluates raw pitching tools. By comparison, Johan Santana of the Minnesota Twins gets a 75. Based on his raw pitching tools and actual results, we categorize Carmona as “Good” on a marginal/key role/average/good/premium/elite scale. A few more years of production like 2007 and Carmona will move to “Premium”.

Strengths

Carmona has plus tailing action to his fastball, which includes a lot of sink and velocity up to the mid 90’s. He is deceptive with a lot of arm and leg movements coming at the hitter. It is very difficult to pick up his release point.

Weaknesses

He has a tendency to get anxious when runners are in scoring position, causing him to rush toward the plate and get his pitches up in the strike zone. He was inexperienced in post-season play going into the ALDS, but he answered the bell there.

Fastball (91-96 mph)

• Movement: His fastball shows hard tailing action and plus sink when down in the zone.
• Command: He does a good job of keeping his fastball down in the zone. He works both sides of the plate but is more comfortable throwing his fastball to his arm side.
• Plan: Carmona will look to get ahead in the count and pitch to contact with his fastball.

Slider (80-86 mph)

• Movement: His slider will show good depth at times and is used best to his glove-side of the plate.
• Command: He has inconsistent command with his slider. Most of his sliders in the strike zone have below average depth.
• Plan: Carmona really tries to keep the slider down, and as a result he can bounce some of them to home plate. When he can command his slider he’ll use it off the plate to his glove-side to get swings and misses from right-handed hitters.

Change-up (84-87 mph)

• Movement: Carmona’s change-up will show some tail in the strike zone and show good sink when used as an out-pitch. This pitch is a plus pitch and has the potential to get a lot better.
• Command: Carmona commands this pitch down and to his arm-side of the plate.
• Plan: He is most comfortable using his change-up to left-handed hitters as his off-speed pitch. He rarely throws a change-up in the strike zone to right-handed hitters.

Pitching Mechanics (B)

Carmona’s biggest improvement in 2007 was adjusting his pitching mechanics to slow his delivery and keep his weight on his back side prior to delivering his pitches. He’s been able to repeat his delivery, which has helped him become a consistent starter.

As the Red Sox have stretched their lead to 9-2, I wonder at what point Francona will pull Beckett.  After six innings and 80 pitches, it’s time to pull him so he can go again in game 4. 

Also, it looks like we have the answer to “To Drew or Not To Drew”.  Good decision, Tito.

Manny looks good.  He’s getting some great swings in. 

With a 1-0 series lead, a rested Josh Beckett and hot Manny, things are looking good for the Sox.

Who is Rafael Perez?

Rafael Perez may prove to be the most important pitcher in the Indians bullpen against the Red Sox in the ALCS. He has a chance to make as much of an impact as any rookie reliever since K-Rod in 2002. He’ll need to for the Indians to move on.

Overall: Perez, a lefty set up man, was 1-2 in the regular season with a 1.78 ERA, appearing in 44 games after being called up at the end of May. I would categorize him as average/good right now with a chance to become good/premium if he continues the way he’s going. He is a strikeout pitcher who features a fastball and slider. He had 62 Ks in 60.2 IP. For a rookie he doesn’t seem to be intimidated by the pressure of the playoffs.

Strengths: His slider is his best pitch, and he gets a lot of strikeouts with it. He is willing to throw it in almost any count, so hitters don’t have the luxury of sitting on his fastball. He is equally tough on both lefties and righties (1.45 Avg. vs. LHH, 2.13 vs. RHH w/ more Ks vs. RHH). He had the second best WHIP and 3rd best K/BB ratio on the Indians.

Weaknesses: Can he pitch multiple innings in back to back games? He pitched in games 1 and 2 of the division series, but in a 7 game series he will face a tougher challenge. He didn’t look as dominant in his 3rd outing of the series in game 4. His endurance will be tested if the ALCS is a long series.

Fastball: His fastball is 87-91. Not overpowering, but seems to have good life. This pitch is effective when he keeps it in on the hands, especially on righties. Primarily used to set up the slider, but he still needs to locate it well. I would rate it a 55.

Slider: His out pitch. Very effective down and away to LHH and down and in to RHH. He has excellent arm action and this pitch has sharp downward movement. He needs to start this pitch as a strike breaking out of the zone. When he struggled in game 4 of the ALDS this pitch was starting out of the strike zone. I would rate is a 65.

Best Match-Up: He should match up well against the free swingers in the Red Sox line up like Lugo and Pedroia. Also against Drew since he seems to really struggle with good breaking pitches from lefties. He can be a tough match up for anyone in the line up, just look at what he did to the big bats of the Yankees.

Worst Match-Up: He’s only pitched 2 innings against the Red Sox this season, so there is not much familiarity with him. He needs to be careful of the middle of the lineup. Ortiz, Ramirez, and Lowell will make him pay if he leaves a fastball over the plate since it’s not that overpowering.

Perez will need to elevate his game for the Indians to be successful in this series. Betancourt is their best and most consistent reliever and it will be Perez’s job to get the ball to him. He may even be called upon to get the ball to Borowski depending on Betancourt’s availability. He needs to get his fastball in on the hands or keep it on the corners away. He should continue to throw his slider in any count, making sure that he starts it as a strike breaking down and out of the zone.

Cleveland Indians ALCS Team Report

• General Manager: Mark Shapiro
• Manager: Eric Wedge

Playoff Strategy

The Cleveland Indians went 2-5 against the Boston Red Sox this year. Here’s what the Indians need to do to win the American League championship.

1. Run the bases aggressively. The Indians need to steal when they can to put additional pressure on the tough Red Sox pitching staff and maximize run production – a tough challenge when facing the best pitching staff in the American League.
2. Attack first pitches that are fastballs in the strike zone. The Indians aren’t a good breaking ball hitting team, and getting behind in the count puts them at a larger disadvantage relative to their competition. The Indians had the third most strikeouts (1,202) in the American League, while their own pitching staff struck out just 1,047.
3. Cleveland starters need to go as deep in the game as possible. Though rookies Jensen Lewis and Rafael Perez have had good years, they remain rookies who don’t know the pressures of playing in the post-season, especially in Boston. With closer Joe Borowski being the weak link of the pitching staff, complete games by CC Sabathia and Fausto Carmona are of greater importance.
4. Eric Wedge needs to manage the big game and orchestrate the right match-ups. Three components to a championship club are: the horses on the field, a supportive front office, and a manager who can manage a big game. There are managers who are good during the regular season but cannot manage a big game at the end of the year. In October, all the games are big games. So far, Wedge has stuck to his plan, even when it included the unpopular decision of starting Paul Byrd against the Yankees. That decision sure turned out correctly.

Overview

The Indians won the Central Division with consistent play from a well-rounded team. More than anything else, Wedge set the tone for an aggressive group of players. Wedge is a no-nonsense, blue collar manager and he respects his players as long as his players respect his rules. Wedge is supported by a cast of experienced coaches whose work ethic is second to none.

Offense

The Indians’ attack is comprised of speed at the top and bottom of the batting order and power in the middle. They are an aggressive group that strikes out a lot (3rd in the AL). They’re not the best offensive team, as they finished in the middle of the pack in the major offensive categories (batting average, runs, home runs, RBIs and on-base percentage). But they have talented players such as Grady Sizemore, Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez and win by successfully playing small ball.

Defense

“Consistent” would best describe the Indians defense. They don’t make mental errors; they dive for balls when needed, and they have good team communication. The Indians don’t beat themselves, and good defense wins World Series.

Pitching

Having two horses in the rotation is vital to a team’s post-season success. And Cleveland has the best 1-2 combo in the playoffs in the form of C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona. Sabathia and Carmona tied for second in the majors with 19 wins. Sabathia finished 11th in ERA (3.21) and Carmona (3.06), just 23 years old, finished fifth.

Both pitched well against the Red Sox in 2007. In his only start against the Red Sox, Carmona pitched eight scoreless innings, giving up four hits and two walks, while striking out six. Sabathia allowed one run over seven innings, giving up five hits and no walks, with seven strikeouts, in his only start against the Sox.

After the big two, things get dicey. Paul Byrd won 15 games, but his type of stuff (lots of hits allowed and few strikeouts) generally doesn’t win in the postseason – though it did work out okay against the Yankees in Game 4 of the ALDS. He won his start against the Sox in 2007, going six innings, allowing one run, nine hits and no walks.

A candidate for the number four spot in the rotation, if needed, is Jake Westbrook. Though he only finished 6-9 with a 4.32 ERA, he did finish strong, giving up more than three earned runs in only two of his final 12 starts. He got roughed up against the Sox this year, however, allowing five runs and 14 runners.

The Indians’ bullpen is a wild card. Manager Wedge stuck with Joe Borowski (the worst closer in the postseason from both a statistical and scouting perspective) as closer despite having three other relievers with better stuff. Rookies Rafael Perez and Jensen Lewis and veteran Rafael Betancourt posted ERAs of 1.78, 2.15 and 1.47 respectively. Borowski finished the year with a 5.07 ERA and 1.43 WHIP and looked less than stellar against the Yankees in the ALDS.

Hitters

Jason Michaels (LF)

Strong, hard-working outfielder usually has to platoon because he can’t hit right-handed breaking pitches. His defense is average because of limited range. He will dive and is not afraid of the fence. His arm is slightly below average, but he is accurate and hits his cut-off man. At the plate, he looks to pull most pitches, and he likes the ball elevated in the strike zone. Michaels doesn’t make enough adjustments at the plate to be in the lineup every day.

Franklin Gutierrez (RF)

Young outfielder with a lot of tools, Gutierrez can run, throw, hit with power, and steal bases. He’s only 24 but lack of development at the minor league level has slowed his progress because he hasn’t received enough playing time. Gutierrez projects to a 20+ home run guy and a future all-star player.

Josh Barfield (2B) 

Barfield is a young second baseman who had a great rookie season with the San Diego Padres but has struggled mightily since coming to the Indians in the off-season. He has above average tools on both sides of the ball but has not found a comfort zone in the American League. The Indians are being patient with him, but a .243 batting average with three home runs and 50 RBIs isn’t going to cut it. He has lost his job in the postseason to Asdrubal Cabrera.

Asdrubal Cabrera (2B)

Cabrera is very young – just 21-years-old. He has above average speed and range. He was a shortstop in the minors. He’s getting on the job training during the playoffs – something the Indians felt forced to do because of Josh Barfield’s poor play. He hits in the number two slot in the line-up because he is a good fastball hitter and bad breaking ball hitter. He won’t walk much because he doesn’t like to hit with two strikes. Cabrera has a good swing and is capable of using the entire field. He’ll show power to right field versus low and inside strikes. He tends to chase balls out of the strike zone when he is behind in the count. When facing left-handed pitching he tends to swing at the first fastball strike he sees.

Ryan Garko (1B/DH)

He is a strong, aggressive hitter who likes the ball elevated out over the plate. He looks to pull the ball most of the time and will cheat to do so. Garko is a bad breaking ball hitter. Sliders from a right-hander are his weakness. He looks like he is gaining more confidence as he gets more chances at the plate. Garko is a below average defender with very little room for improvement. He plays hard and is a good teammate, but his value is hitting HR and driving in runs.

Victor Martinez (C)

Martinez should finish in the top 10 in American League MVP voting, hitting .301 with 25 home runs and 114 RBIs. He is a switch-hitting catcher, is durable and has a consistent approach to hitting. He is an aggressive hitter who likes to go after the first good pitch he sees. Martinez handles the pitching staff well and is an average defender. He has an accurate arm with an average release.

Grady Sizemore (CF)

A very good athlete who still has room to grow. He regressed a bit in batting average and home runs from 2006, but still finished with 118 runs, 24 home runs and 78 RBIs to go along with 33 stolen bases and a .277 batting average. He’s got a lot of tools: speed, power and arm. He plays Eric Wedge’s style of baseball: he hustles and plays the game hard every day.

Travis Hafner (DH)

Despite a huge drop in OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage), from 1.098 to .836, Hafner is still the biggest threat in the Indians’ line-up. He has home run power against left-handed and right-handed pitchers and is capable of hitting home runs to all fields. He is rarely used on defense but he is capable of playing first base. There are a lot of similarities between Hafner and David Ortiz: both are very disciplined with plenty of power potential.

Jhonny Peralta (SS)

Young player with a bright future. He is streaky offensively and struggles to make adjustments at the plate. Gets on his heels at shortstop at times. Has played the same way for a few years now for Cleveland. They feel they can win the World Series with Peralta at shortstop.

Casey Blake (3B)

One of the better utility players in baseball, Blake can play the corner infield positions and the corner outfield positions. His defense is good, but his production as an offensive player doesn’t match the profile for a corner player on a championship club. He had a slugging percentage in 2007 of just .437, and his career slugging is .444.

From Pags

Red Sox in six

The Sox just beat Lackey and Escobar, who are just as good as Sabathia and Carmona. The Sox have too much power, and they have better advanced scouting.

From Dugout Soothsayer

Indians in seven

Too much Carmona and too much Sabathia. Contrary to what Pags says, Carmona and Sabathia are much better than Lackey and Escobar. If I had my druthers (and if I were a Cleveland fans), I’d start Carmona in game one so I could get him in games four and seven. Old man Lofton will be a nemesis on the base paths. The key question is going to be whether Carmona and Sabathia go the distance so there won’t be a Borowski factor. Casey Blake will have one big game. Why? Good old gut feeling.

From Bob Laurence

Red Sox in five

I’ll take the Sox in five.  I just think Cleveland isn’t as strong, in spite of what they did to the Yankees, who must now be considered a troubled, aging franchise.  As much as Clemens might have done for them, a club depending on a 44-year-old pitcher to be their savior is by definition on shaky ground. I think the Indians may be more lucky than good, while the Sox are the more solid club.

From Joe Nigro

Red Sox in six

I’ll take the Sox in six because:

• With their depth in pitching the Sox can set up more effective match ups later in the games. Lefty vs. lefty and righty vs. righty match-ups will be key.
• Yes, it is that time of year when Ortiz and Manny, together, are a force to be reckoned with. I have a feeling that the Indians are going to do their best to take them out of the game early, with walks and working the counts to their favor. But in the end, there just isn’t much they can do to calm down the Red Sox offense. I didn’t even mention Lowell, Pedroia and Varitek (yes, that’s right, Varitek)
• Speed kills. Sox have it, and I don’t think the Indians have enough of it to cause trouble on the base paths. Coco, Lugo, Ellsbury and even Drew have the type of speed that will help the Red Sox go from 1st to 3rd in a flash.
• Veterans. The Sox have been here and done that. They know what it feels like in these types of situations. It’s hard to say that the Indians will fall because of a lack of mental composure, but they certainly will make mistakes they wouldn’t have made during the regular season.
• The managers in this series are crucial. They both call a certain type of game. Francona likes match ups, numbers, long at bats, etc. Basically, long and dragged out innings are good for Francona. That wins championships. Wedge likes unusual match ups (Byrd in game 4 of the ALDS), aggressive plate appearances where he gives a lot of green lights to the order.

From Rick Cerone (short and sweet)

Red Sox in seven

CC Sabathia

Left-handed starting pitcher

Cleveland Indians

Boston Outlook

Pitching Plan

Sabathia will attempt to get ahead of Red Sox hitters with first-pitch fastballs and change-ups. He will use his slider when ahead in the count and with runners on base. Because Sabathia is left-handed and has a decent move to first, he won’t have to worry about runners (specifically Julio Lugo and centerfielder Coco Crisp) as much. Therefore he can attack the Red Sox power hitters with the pitches he wants, rather than they pitches that best help slow the running game.

Best Match-up

Sabathia is a nightmare for most left-handed hitters. He will pitch inside off the plate with his fastball, and he’ll use his slider in and out of the strike zone to get swings. He is very deceptive and it is more difficult for lefties to pick up his release point. JD Drew (0-3 with 3 strikeouts lifetime) will have a lot of trouble against him, so the Red Sox should start Bobby Kielty in right field (.310 with two home runs and 7 RBIs).

Worst Match-up

Right-handed hitters who can hit to the entire field will have a much easier time with Sabathia, especially if the hitters can handle breaking pitches. Leftfielder Manny Ramirez has killed Sabathia in his career, batting .571 with four home runs and seven RBIs. That’s good for a 1.894 OPS.

Keys to Success

1. Keep the fastball down. Sabathia had success throwing his fastball up in the strike zone to most of the Yankees. This won’t be the case against the Red Sox, since they have some very good high ball hitters: Ramirez, third baseman Mike Lowell, second baseman Dustin Pedroia, and catch Jason Varitek from the right side.
2. He must pitch around Ramirez. Twenty-one career at-bats against Sabathia is a small sample size, but the results warrant a careful approach to the slugger.
3. He needs to use his change-up as a compliment to his fastball and slider, especially in the middle counts.

Sabathia Scouting Report

Overall

Sabathia is the Indians’ number one starter and a likely top five finisher in the American League Cy Young Award. The 27-year-old tied for second in the majors with 19 wins, was fifth in the AL with a 3.21 ERA and led the majors with 241 innings pitched.

Sabathia throws three pitches: fastball, slider and change-up. He has a huge frame, which contributes to his pitch deception. Eventually, his weight will catch up to him and cause injuries.

Sabathia rates a 70 on the scouting 20-80 scale, which evaluates raw pitching tools. By comparison, Johan Santana of the Minnesota Twins gets a 75. Based on his raw pitching tools and actual results, we categorize Sabathia as “Premium” on a marginal/key role/average/good/premium/elite scale.

Strengths

Sabathia has a strong athletic frame, and he is a durable pitcher capable of supplying his team with quality starts and 200 plus innings each year. His fastball is explosive and his slider is an excellent out-pitch to left-handed hitters. His change-up improved significantly during 2007.

Weaknesses

Sabathia tends to elevate his fastball in the middle of the plate. His conditioning will be a major problem long-term.

Fastball (91-95 mph)

• Movement: His fastball is straight, but it shows plus life up in the strike zone. At times his fastball will show some cutting action into right-handed hitters.
• Command: Sabathia’s best command with his fastball is to his arm-side side of the plate. He does a nice job of using the top of the strike zone with two strikes on hitters.
• Plan: He uses his fastball to get ahead in the count. He’ll throw the fastball inside off the plate to set up his off-speed pitches, and he will use it up in the zone with two strikes.

Slider (82-85 mph)

• Movement: Sabathia’s slider will show average depth, but he’s also capable of sweeping it and changing the angle to left-handed hitters.
• Command: He can throw his slider to both sides of the plate. He can also bury it (back foot slider) to right-handed hitters out of the strike zone and get swings and misses.
• Plan: Sabathia doesn’t like to show his slider too soon. The first time around the order he’s more comfortable using his fastball and change-up. He will use his slider as an out-pitch more than any other, and he’ll use it both in and out of the strike zone.

Change-up (80-83 mph)

• Movement: His changeup will show some tailing action but not much. It will also ink when it is down and out of the strike zone.
• Command: His best command with this pitch is down and to his arm side.
• Plan: Sabathia will use his changeup early in the game. He’s most comfortable using it off his fastball and in hitter counts (1-0, 2-0). He has a lot of confidence in his changeup.

Pitching Mechanics (A)

Sabathia has improved his mechanics thanks to pitching coach Carl Willis. He has better balance over the rubber now that he is utilizing a pause in his pitching motion. This action limits his tendency to rush forward, and it has also created a consistent arm slot for the big left-hander.

From Steven Caimano

I’m sure all of you have heard some variation of the following over the last week. “The Indians are winning this series because of their timely hitting. Look at their batting average with runners in scoring position (RISP) and two outs.” Well let’s look at it, shall we.

They hit .367 with RISP and two outs. You know what they hit with RISP overall? .282. That means they hit .125 with RISP and less than two outs. I would like somebody who believes the quoted sentence above to explain to me how this could be. If hitting .367 with RISP and two outs is evidence of how “clutch” the Indians are, why couldn’t they be clutch with one out or nobody out?

No, when I watched the playoffs I didn’t see the Indians winning with timely hitting, I saw the Yankees losing because of bad pitching. There were so many Indians on the base paths I thought it was the holding pattern over O’Hare. How many base runners you ask? How about 71!?! (45 H, 20 BB, 5 HBP, 1 reached on an error)? That’s EIGHTEEN base runners a game!

The Indians series stats were 315 AVG/417 OBP/524 SLG. That’s not their MVP, that’s the whole team. They actually underperformed their overall average when hitting with RISP overall. Remember that .367 number up at the top. That was 11 for 30 with RISP and two outs. That’s less than two hits better than they were hitting for the whole series.

Vladimir Guerrero. You might’ve heard of him. Plays for the Angels and had a pretty good year. You know what his stats were this year? 324/403/547. How about David Wright? Could’ve been the NL MVP if it weren’t for that whole collapse thing. You know what his stats were? 325/416/546. How about Derek Lee of the Cubs? 318/400/513. You think when you’re facing a pitching staff that is so bad it makes EVERY PLAYER IN YOUR LINE-UP the functional equivalent of Derek Lee you might score a few runs? Me too.

Now to the point. The Red Sox pitching staff is much better than the Yankees. Bold prediction number one. The Indians will not hit .315 as a team in the ALCS, nor will they have a .417 OBP. Not only is the Red Sox staff better than the Yankees, but it’s better than the Indians too. The Red Sox line-up is better especially if Manny is, in fact, back to being Manny from a hitting perspective. Bold prediction number two. The Red Sox win this series in five.

Final bold prediction. Sometime during the next two weeks you will hear the following words. “The Indians sure have lost that momentum they had against the Yankees. Look at the drop in batting average with RISP and two outs, and that’s the difference in this series.” Don’t believe them.

Us on Sunday:

“Cleveland manager Eric Wedge is making a mistake by starting Paul Byrd in game four of their series with New York. Though anything can happen in a single game, an analysis both from a scouting and statistical perspective suggests Byrd has little chance of stopping the Yankees offense.”

Byrd on Monday:

• 5 innings pitched
• 8 hits
• 2 earned runs
• 2 strike outs
• 2 walks
• 1 win

Us on Tuesday:

Paul Byrd

Right-handed starter

Cleveland Indians

Cleveland manager Eric Wedge is making a mistake by starting Paul Byrd in game four of their series with New York. Though anything can happen in a single game, an analysis both from a scouting and statistical perspective suggests Byrd has little chance of stopping the Yankees offense.

Like Jake Westbrook (who was lit up for 6 runs and 9 hits in five innings in Sunday’s loss to the Yankees), Byrd is a command and contact pitcher who has a very low strikeout rate. The Yankees already have the majors’ best offense, and they are especially good against command and contact pitchers.

Byrd started one game against New York this year and got crushed, to the tune of seven earned runs in two innings. Byrd went 15-8 this season, but he had a 4.59 ERA and struck out only 88 in 192.3 innings. He has very good control (only 28 walks) and uses a variety of pitches and changes in velocity to compensate for his lack of power. He throws four pitches: fastball, slider, change-up and curve.

We suggest two alternatives to pitching Byrd in Game 4:

• Starting C.C. Sabathia on three days rest. There’s little data to evaluate Sabathia’s performance on short rest (he pitched on three days rest once and won that game, allowing one earned run in five innings – thanks to www.baseball-reference.com), but a tired Sabathia is likely better than a rested Byrd. Pitching Sabathia in game four would still allow the Indians to use Fausto Carmona on full rest for Game 5; otherwise, they lose value by keeping Carmona out of the game.
• The more radical alternative is to pitch Rafael Betancourt (1.47 ERA for 2007), Rafael Perez (1.78) and Jensen Lewis (2.15) each for one trip through the Yankees line-up. If the Indians are ahead after the third trip, they can bring in Carmona to close the game. With a day off on Tuesday, all these relievers should be able to contribute in a game five on Wednesday.

Byrd rates a “55″ on the scouting 20-80 scale, which evaluates raw pitching tools.  By comparison, Johan Santana of the Minnesota Twins gets a 75.  Based on his raw pitching tools including the scouting evaluation of his historical performance, we currently categorize Byrd as “Average” at this time on our category marginal/key role/average/good/premium/elite scale. 

Strengths

Byrd effectively employs deception, using different velocities on his pitches. It is difficult to predict his pitch sequences. He is capable of throwing all his pitches for strikes.

Weaknesses

Byrd is not overpowering. He doesn’t strike out many, and he doesn’t have a true out-pitch or swing and miss pitch.

Fastball (85-89 mph)

Movement: He throws a two-seam fastball that shows tailing action, and he is able to create sink when pitching to contact. Byrd also throws a four-seam fastball that is straight with average life through the strike zone.

Command: Byrd has good command of his fastball. He will use it to the sides of the plate and up in the strike zone.

Plan: Byrd will throw his fastball off the plate and inside to hitters so he can set up his off-speed pitches.

Slider (78-82)

Movement: He throws a small slider with small break and average rotation.

Command: Byrd has above average command of this pitch. He gets best use of it when he throws it to his arm-side as a back-door slider to lefties.

Plan: He will use it in and out of the zone depending on the hitters. Byrd is capable of throwing this pitch for strikes at any time, and he will drop down and pitch from a low three-quarter arm slot at times.

Change-up (73-79)

Movement: His change-up has small tailing action to it and small sink to his arm-side.

Command: Byrd commands his change-up best to his arm-side and uses it down in the strike zone. He can throw it for strikes in the zone or command it down and out of the zone.

Plan: He uses it mainly to left-handed hitters and will throw his change-up in any count. Byrd doesn’t like to use his change-up as much the first time through the order.

Curve (72-76)

Movement: Byrd has an average break to his curveball. He will change the angle and depth depending on the hitter.

Command: He has good command of his curveball and is capable of throwing it to both sides of the plate and using it down and out of the strike zone.

Plan: This pitch is used to change the eye level of the hitters. It will set up his sinking fastball and slider as out-pitches.

Best Match-up

Younger players with limited major league experience may have a difficult time with Byrd because of the right-hander’s ability to changes speeds and the angle of all his pitches. Younger players are more aggressive and usually are looking for a fastball to hit. Byrd will show his fastball, but not in an area where it can be hit out of the park.

The Yankees are an experienced team, so there really isn’t a “best” match-up for Byrd. Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera are the most inexperienced Yankees, but they are a combined 5 for 13 with two home runs and 7 RBIs against Byrd. It’s not going to be an easy game for Byrd!

Worst Match-up

Experienced hitters who can use the entire field to hit in will take away Byrd’s pitch options. By using the entire field, good hitters can allow the ball to travel further before starting the hitting motion. This, in turn, gives them more time to identify Byrd’s off-speed pitches and offset one of Byrd’s assets, which is deception.

Derek Jeter is 11 for 27 (.407) lifetime against Byrd. Doug Mientkiewicz is 6 for 19 (.316) with five RBIs against Byrd, versus Jason Giambi at 4 for 13 (.214) with one RBI. So, if Joe Torre isn’t bothered by the small sample size, he may start Mientkiewicz.

Pitching Mechanics (A)

Byrd uses a consistent tempo and rhythm when pitching. It helps him alleviate tension as well as repeat his delivery and arm slot. He gets in trouble when pitching from the stretch because he has a quick move to home plate and will hurry his delivery from time to time. Overall, Byrd does a good job of staying balanced and finishing off his pitches.

Pitcher Plan

Against the Yankees Byrd will try to mix his pitches inside and out of the strike zone. His ability to hold runners close at first base will slow down the Yankees’ running game. For their part, the Yankees will look to use a lot of “hit and run” strategy to keep from grounding into double plays.

Keys to Success

• Consistently change his pitch sequence to keep the Yankee hitters guessing.
• Keep runners at first base with his quick move to the plate.
• Hope that gnats attack the Yankees batters.

Andy Pettitte: Pettitte has been on a roll lately - going 4-1 in his last 5 decisions. As always for Pettitte, his bread and butter pitch is his cut fastball, which he can command to both sides of the plate. The Tribe has struggled mightily on offense - so look for Pettitte to be aggressive and attack the Cleveland hitters. Recently, Pettitte has walked more batters than normal (4 in his last outing) but also has had been able to get more strikeouts (averaging 7 in his last 5 starts) Another huge positive for Pettitte is that he keeps the ball in the yard - he has only allowed 1 home run in his last seven outings. Pettitte needs to go right after every batter in the CLE lineup because they are at a low point offensively.

Jake Westbrook: Westbrook carries a 3-6 record with an even 5.00 ERA coming into this series finale. He has struggled a lot this season - which has included a stint on the DL (May 2nd - June 24th) He has won his last two decisions - in total going 14 innings, while giving up only one earned run on 7 hits. He is a durable ground ball type whose relies on his power sinker. He produces a lot of ground ball outs each start - the problem for him is the Indians defense is very inconsistent. Another challenger for Westbrook is that the Yankees have a lot of low ball hitters (Arod, Matsui, Posada, etc.) so look for the NYY hitters to try to put pressure on the Indians defense with a lot of hard contact in the middle of the field. If Westbrook has the right forgiving umpire behind the plate he could be successful, but we doubt it.

After this game, The Yankees head home for an 8 game home stand against Baltimore and Detroit respectively. It will be very important for the NYY to take at least 3 games from the Orioles because they will be looking at Detroit (twice), L.A. Angles, and Boston in their next four series. While they Yankees sit in the middle of the playoff race with Detroit and Seattle for the Wild Card - they will need to make up as much ground as possible before their tough stretch.

Well Paul Byrd pitched like Marlon Byrd against the Yankees. And the Indians are right; they didn’t need to make any moves at the trade deadline when their organization is packed with trade prospects. No, they figured they’ll win with Byrd, that’s right an Average (category) major league pitcher. Did the Indians think the Yankees wouldn’t be better in the second half of the season. Shame on you Buck Showalter. Shame on the Indians letting their fans down once again.

Failing to prepare is Preparing to Fail - the Cleveland Indians

Go ahead and blame the Yankees for the salary structure or the potent lineup. It didn’t seem to bother the Indians or their opponents in April, May, and June. We blame the Indians for not competing. The Yankees are more than happy to win the game, and even happier that the Indians laid down at the trade deadline.

Signing high draft picks and rushing them to the big leagues, and then sending them back down to the minor leagues - good for development right? But more than likely a waste of money. Do the Indians have a plan anywhere in sight? Or is Mark Shapiro going to change his costume again…….

Wasn’t this the organization (choke) of the year, a couple of seasons ago. Or were their baseball america employees just doing their job. Sickening isn’t it. Next you’ll probably here something like the organization has pitch counts just to minimize workmans comp in the company - can you imagine if a team actually did something like that!

Mike Mussina: Mussina is coming off a very good outing against the Royals, going 6+ innings allowing 2 earned runs on a Ross Gload HR. He is currently 7-7 with a 4.66 ERA – but is going through his best stretch of starts this season. He has won his last 3 decisions in a row and hasn’t given up more than 3 earned runs in any of those starts. As described before, “The Moose” is a 6 or 7 inning pitch at most – and relies on mixing his off-speed pitches in order to get batters out. He has had excellent control this season, 24 BB in 106.1 innings pitched – but has also given up 122 hits, meaning that his command is below average. Mussina needs to get ahead of hitter with the first strike in order to be effective – this opens up his arsenal and he avoids having to throw his average fastball in hitter’s counts.

Byrd: Paul Byrd is coming off his best outing of the season – he went the distance in a 4-0 victory over the Twins, needing just 99 pitches. He has won his last 3 decisions, and carries a 10-4 record along with a 4.13 ERA into Saturday. Byrd has a bit of a deception to his windup at the beginning of his motion and does a good job of pitching to hitters weaknesses. He is not afraid to pitch to contact and he’ll throw strikes as he doesn’t walk many. Look for Byrd to get ahead of hitters, but at the same time he is not afraid of pitching behind in the count. For a guy with average stuff at best – Byrd uses his defense, works fast, and throws strikes, and when any pitcher does those things a productive outing usually follows.

While Byrd is the type pitcher having to pitch to contact – this lineup could give him a lot of problems. Byrd has had trouble with patient hitters, and many hitters on the Yankees are seeing the ball very well (e.g. Cano, Abreu, Cabrera, the list goes on) Byrd is more effective against aggressive hitters who will expand the strike zone and swing at a “pitchers pitch”. If the Yankees can stick to their offensive game plan – look for Byrd to have a tough outing.
It’s a good thing the Yankees had an off day on Thursday, because it allows their bullpen to get some rest. Mussina hasn’t gone over 6 innings since late June, so the Yankees will need to get the last 9 outs by some combination – will the Yankees use Chamberlain in a crucial situation?  He is very comparable to Hughes, and throws almost 10 mph less than Mussina – it would be different look and a difficult adjustment for the Cleveland hitters! But remember what happened to Craig Hansen (Boston) in his second outing in the major leagues vs. Baltimore. Yankee fans hope that doesn’t happen to Chamberlain, and besides Torre is managing.

Phillip Hughes: Hughes carries a 1-1 record with a 5.87 ERA heading into this showdown of young, aggressive, hard throwing RHP. His three starts have been inconsistent – but he shown many signs that point to a bright future. He has good mound presence and smooth mechanics. He stays on top with good arm action and has confidence to throw strikes in hitter’s counts. Hughes has struck out 16 batters in 15.1 innings – which illustrates the fact that he attacks both sides of the plate and has a plus swing and miss curve. As if Hughes needed any more motivation – look for him to build off Joba Chamberlain’s excellent Major League Debut against Toronto. The two have come up through the minors and have been touted as the NYY’s highest prospects, which they are. Both have an aggressive and competitive nature, which will translate into feeding off each other’s success………….similar to Melky and Cano.

Fausto Carmona: Coming into this series with the Yankees, Carmona has a 3.17 ERA and a 13-6 record. He has pitched very well in his past 2 starts, but has lost consecutive decisions in 1-0 and 3-1 game respectively. Carmona is a converted reliever from last season, and has performed brilliantly for the Indians all year, as he has taken over the no.2 spot in the rotation behind ace C.C. Sabbathia. Carmona has an electric fastball with sinking movement including some tail action, which he throws in the mid 90’s He keeps the ball down in the zone - he is better at working the sides of the plate rather than up in the zone. He also features a deceptive motion with a lot of arms and legs coming at the hitter. He will be looking to build on his only start against the Yankees, which came on April 19th - he went 6 innings allowing only 2 earned runs.

The Yankees currently sit an even 6 games behind Boston – who just barely avoided being swept by LAA. They are currently a half of game behind Detroit in the Wild Card - who finished up their series with TB by losing the last game and then face Oakland in their next series. Referring to New York, it is no secret how good the Yankees offense has been in the recent weeks. One of their many highlights is the streaky Bobby Abreu whose 33 RBI since the All Star Break is the best in the AL. Melky Cabrera carries a 14 game hitting streak and Robinson is coming off a 2 home run game. A positive for the Yankees this series will be that they will avoid C.C. Sabbathia who has been dominant all season. This is one of the many tests the Yankees will face in August and throughout the rest of the year - this series can carry their momentum into Baltimore in their next series before they face an even tougher stretch of games.

Kason Gabbard (lhp)Boston’s 29th round pick in the 2000 First Year Player Draft, Gabbard is in his seventh pro season with the Red Sox organization. He is not overpowering and relies on mixing speeds and keeping his tailing FB down in the zone. He has relied more on his CB and CH when ahead in the count. He is deceptive throwing from a 3/4 armslot with a quick move to the plate. He is a back end starter that is capable of pitching out of the pen. Gabbard is durable and a good competitor capable of giving his team a lot of innings. He has shown very good success thus far at the ML level in 2007 due to the fact that he hasn’t been seen often and he limits the opposing team’s running game.He’ll throw a FB, cut-FB, CV, SL, and CH. Gabbard is capable of changing the angle to his breaking pitches as well as adding and subtracting to them.

Cliff Lee (lhp)Lee hasn’t been very consistent so far this season, he got a late start due to injuries. Lately he has been able to work down in the zone which has helped his cause. He has a slightly above average FB that shows sinking action to his arm side and relies on his angle and cut-FB when throwing to his glove side. He uses his slider more as his out pitch but will also show an average change up to keep the right handed hitters off balance. The Indians need Lee to step up and show he can be the #2 or 3 starter and they need him to compete against Boston tonight to keep them in the race. A very big game for Lee. 

Carmona - He has an electric fastball with a lot of movement. He works fast and tries to keep his pitches down in the zone. He is a young pitcher with a lot of ability, and with better control and maturity he could be one of the tops in the league. At this time he is pitching very well for Cleveland - one of their top starters. He is currently an average major league pitcher but projects to a good major leaguer.

Fastball 90-96: His best pitch with tail and sinking action to it.

Slider 82-86: An inconsistent pitch for him.  It has average depth, but when he commands it gloveside he’ll get plenty of swings and misses

Change-up 84-87: A pitch he has worked on and improved tremendously. He’ll use it to lefthanded hitters most of the time as it shows plus sinking movement and his good arm speed creates a lot of deception.

Beckett - He has been the Sox best starter, don’t look for him to back off any time soon. He is aware of his team’s position and he is a mature big game pitcher. His stuff has been some of the most consistent throughout the season and the only way he gets in trouble tonight is if he falls behind (1-0) the aggressive Cleveland batters.

Tonight’s matchup: MATSUZAKA vs SABATHIA

Matsuzaka goes against the Indians winningest pitcher this year. Sabathia is a power pitcher that uses his fastball to set up his other offspeed pitches. This year Sabathia has had much success due to the fact that he has been getting ahead of the hitters, using his fastball inside off the plate, and generating a lot of swings and misses from his offspeed (CH, CV) out of the strike zone.

Matsuzaka will have success if he can get ahead of the Indians batters with first pitch strike one, and use his four seam FB up in the zone late in the count as Jon Lester did last night.

Just what the doctor ordered: a four run first inning helped Jon Lester to his first victory in an emotional return to the majors. Lester was steady as a rock and attacked the strike zone early. He used fastballs to both sides of the plate and up in the zone to finish many anxious Indians hitters. His breaking pitches weren’t as sharp as he’d like them and his cut-FB wasn’t very effective either. But it didn’t matter, because with the help of Varitek it was an effective start. 

Lester’s start was also a big positive because it helps what has become a tired Red Sox pitching staff. Lester’s addition to the roation also helps the bullpen because it allows ironman Julian Tavarez to move to the bullpen and help its weaker middle portion. The ability of Tavarez to be versatile enought to move to the bullpen is as important and as vital to the Red Sox staff as Ramiro Mendoza was to the Yankees in the 90’s.

Indians starter, Jake Westbrook, who’s been injured off and on this year, couldn’t find the plate last night and wound up pitching to most Red Sox hitters behind in the count.

Jon Lester (lhp): Lester is not quite ready at this time, but Boston needs him. He has used his fastball in AAA much more than he used it during last season at the major league. He’s also throwing a curve that has good rotation and a slider he tends to leave up in the zone. His change works as his best offspeed outpitch at this time. He will need his cut-fastball if he’s going to be successful, but it’s not been consistent for him yet and could be a major problem. He should be playing with a lot of emotion today, and starting on the road might be good for Lester considering all the hype. He’ll handle the pressure, but the hype won’t bother the Cleveland lineup. Lester will have to be on his game.

PLAN: Lester will attempt to establish his fastball early in the game to both sides of the plate. He’s more comfortable staying away from hitters. He rarely pitches inside off the plate with his fastball. His cut-fastball will make room for his effective changeup vs. RH batters. And look for him to go to his breaking pitches early in the count the second time around the order.

Jake Westbrook (rhp): A durable groundball type pitcher for the Indians. Power sinker is his best pitch. It will show tail and sink when down. He’ll use a slider with good late bite to it as an outpitch to most righthanded hitters. His pitches aren’t overpowering as he relies on movement and command, and if he leaves any of them up he gets in trouble. He produces a lot of groundball outs each start.  BAD NEWS: the problem for him is that the Indians defense is very inconsistent. GOOD NEWS: Boston is a high ball hitting team.