I admit it. Last week I threw a car battery out in the trash. I know I’m not supposed to do that. But I just got sick of it sitting behind my garage for two months, collecting leaves and moths. So I put it in a box, which I then placed in a bag in a box, surrounded with a force field of old kitty litter. Then I put it on the curb. No one is going to see it, at least I hope.

Pirates General Manager Neal Huntington did the same thing. Only he did it by releasing Jason Michaels. And he was hoping no one would see.

We’re all well versed in Huntington’s trades of Xavier Nady/Damaso Marte and Jason Bay. Both trades yielded the Pirates a collection of second-rate prospects – not quite someone else’s trash but pretty close. Though it’s too early to call these trades disastrous (after all, outfield prospect Jose Tabata could develop into a productive Major Leaguer), it’s fair to say that Huntington should have gotten far more in return for this three best players. But at least these trades were borne of sound reasoning – of recognizing the Pirates couldn’t compete as then constituted and that the present needed to be sacrificed for the future.

The same can’t be said of the Jason Michaels acquisition. It seemingly was made in a vacuum – without any alignment with a strategic plan. And that’s why for me it’s the biggest red flag that the current Pittsburgh management team isn’t the right one to lead the Pirates.

Huntington acquired Michaels on May 8th after the outfielder was designated for assignment by the Indians. Here’s what Huntington said about the trade at the time:

Jason is a competitor – he’s a gamer. Jason is another tremendous presence in the clubhouse. He has been around a winning environment. He is a winning player.

Here’s what Baseball Reference told us about Michaels at the time:

• He was 32 years old
• He had been in the Majors for six seasons
• He only had more than 300 at bats once
• In seasons with more than 200 at bats, his OPS+ was 98, 111, 85 and 87

Here is what common sense conclusion all of us, including Huntington, should have had at the time:

• Jason Michaels isn’t a very good player

True, the Pirates didn’t give up much for Michaels. They gave up a player to be named later (who still hasn’t been named), and Cleveland agreed to pay much of Michaels’ remaining salary. But there were very real costs to this trade.

First, there was the money the Pirates did in fact spend on Michaels. Let’s assume the Pirates paid just $400K of Michaels’ $2M salary. Wouldn’t this money have been much more productive being used to sign draft picks or funding their Dominican facility? What about giving raises to their minor league coaches – the ones charged with creating the Pirates’ assets of tomorrow? What about hiring some additional amateur scouts? A lot can be done with $400K.

Second, beyond the cash, the Pirates actually gave up a minor leaguer to get Michaels. I’m assuming both the Pirates and the Indians agreed the player would be a lower-level prospect, but why give up anything at all? Maybe that lower level prospect turns into a legitimate Big Leaguer. Why take the chance? Would you throw away an unscratched lottery ticket?

Third, Michaels consumed 254 plate appearances. Each plate appearance was a development opportunity taken away from outfielders who the Pirates deemed to be prospects – Nyjer Morgan (27 years old), Brandon Moss (24) and Steven Pearce (25).

On October 31, Huntington released Michaels. So for the three costs identified above, what did the Pirates receive? Why spend the money? Why give up the minor leaguer? Why take away at bats from prospects? What was the goal?

Was the goal to acquire production that would help the Pirates win more games in 2008, to be fifth in the NL Central instead of sixth? Well that didn’t work, as the Pirates finished sixth and Michaels posted an OPS+ of 82. Nor should it have been expected to work given Michaels’ track record.

Did the Michaels acquisition help the Pirates achieve some internal goal not associated with winning games in 2008? Did he help develop those younger players he was taking at bats away from? Was he giving his young pitchers greater confidence? Was he the “winning player” – a “tremendous presence” – as deemed by Huntington? Obviously not. Otherwise, Huntington would not have dumped him on the curb on Halloween.

I cannot think of a logical reason why the Pirates traded for – and then dumped – Michaels. And that – and the ensuing thought that logic, along with money, isn’t plentiful in the Pittsburgh organization – would scare the hell out of me if I were a Pirates fan. A team such as the Pirates needs to be at the very least logical with all its moves; otherwise it has little hope of ever competing. Ideally, they are shrewd and innovative, but a little logic can go a long way.

Some of you are surely going to counter that this is much ado about nothing – that Michaels was small change. But it’s not the trade, but the process behind the trade, that is important. And in the case of Michaels, the process appears to be broken. Let’s hope that Huntington and the Pirates can learn from this mistake and improve.

Peter Fritsch: Tom Gorzelanny (62 ERA+ in 105.3 IP)

Sadly, promising young Pirates’ hurler Tom Gorzelanny was the worst pitcher in all of MLB during the 2008 season. Of all 142 pitchers with over 100 IP, Gorzelanny was last in ERA (6.66), tied for 131st in K’s (67), tied for 27th in BB (70), 141st in WHIP (1.86), 141st in OPS Against (.909), and posted an ERA+ of just 62. He was banished to AAA in early July, only to return and post four consecutive losses in August and September.

While the numbers speak for themselves, there were a few other pitchers such as the Mariners’ Miguel Batista and Carlos Silva, the Orioles’ Brian Burres and Garrett Olson, and old-timer Livan Hernandez who were within smelling distance of Gorzelanny’s foul stench. But Batista’s, Silva’s, and Hernandez’s best years are long gone and little was expected of them. Burres and Olson were both terrible in 2007 and neither projected as the next Mike Mussina. Conversely, after a stellar 2007 in which he posted a 14-10 record, 112 ERA+, and nearly 2:1 K-to-BB ratio, at age 25, Gorzelanny was expected to take a step forward or at least maintain his productivity, not to regress to the point of complete ineffectiveness.

Shaun Payne: Nate Robertson (70 ERA+ in 168.7 IP)

In 2008 Nate Robertson had his worst season in the majors, which is saying something considering he has never posted an ERA under 3.84 in any season. Robertson had the highest ERA in the Majors among qualifiers by 0.30 earned runs per nine innings.  If we look at all runs (not just earned runs) he had the highest Run Average by 0.36 runs per nine innings.  The Tigers won just 12 times in 32 of his appearances. 

How did Robertson manage to pitch so badly in 2008?  His walk rate was the 23rd worst among qualifiers and his strikeout rate was the 23rd lowest. He also allowed the 10th most home runs per nine innings and second most hits per nine innings.

So Robertson walked hitters at a fairly high rate, he didn’t miss that many bats, and when he allowed contact it was hard contact.  This is not a good formula for success in the Majors. Somehow the Tigers allowed him to start 28 games and throw over 168 innings.

Don Ehrke: Brandon Backe (70 ERA+ in 166.7 IP)

I thought about selecting Barry Zito due to his high salary and weak performance. If this article had been written in mid-season he probably would have been my pick. However, a winning record in the second half of the season salvaged Zito’s campaign. I also considered Nate Robertson; his season-long struggles came to symbolize Detroit’s miserably disappointing 2008 season.

I chose to pick on the Astros again. Brandon Backe was last among National League pitchers in ERA (6.05) and led the Major Leagues in home runs allowed (36). Among those who qualified, Backe’s WHIP (1.67) was third worst in Major League Baseball. If there was a Triple Crown for worst ERA, WHIP and home runs allowed, Backe would have almost grabbed the title. Backe finished fourth in the National League in losses.

One would suppose that the frequently injured and underperforming Backe would be careful not to jeopardize his fragile standing with the team. Last month’s arrest in a wedding reception brawl, however, was a sad end to a dismal season.

Let’s not mince words: this season drained what little life and energy remained in the dwindling Pirates fan base – a group of people as stalwart as Job.

A surprisingly productive outfield and offense was paired with a historically bad pitching staff. Therefore, GM Neal Huntington decided to blow it up and traded his best player, Jason Bay, along with in-his-prime Xavier Nady and lefty reliever Damaso Marte for a BUNCH of, well, bodies. The results were disastrous, with the team going 17-37 after the trades, cementing a record tying 16th straight losing season. Here are the final grades, but be warned, it’s not pretty…

Report Card:

Overall Grade: F

After an exciting and somewhat competitive 1st half, this team became utterly unwatchable following the Bay/Nady/Marte give-away. Their pitching staff was horrible, with alarming regressions by key starters Snell and Gorzelanny. The only bright spots were the emergence of Nate McLouth and Ryan Doumit, who will be traded in 2010 for a pile of “young” bodies.

2009 Season Outlook:

Don’t watch.

Mazeroski Unworthy as a Hall of Famer?

Even for a passionate baseball fan, an all too quick look, or general unfamiliarity, with Bill Mazeroski’s career is liable to cause one to question the Veterans Committee selection of Maz to the Hall of Fame in 2001

A thorough versing in it will not.

Maz was to second base what Ozzie Smith was to short, sans, admittedly, the Whiz’s flashiness and range. He made up for it overwhelmingly in rock solid dependability and an unmatched - certainly by some measures - ability to complete plays.

Along with his eight Gold Gloves and seven All Star selections (you bet they count) his Baseball Player of the Year and Babe Ruth Award wins in 1960, and the most famous walk-off in World Series history that year, he held when he retired a variety of all-time records for his position, including highest ever fielding percentage, most career double-plays and most double-plays in a single season.

Depending on what and whose sabermetric fielding stat one chooses, Bill Mazeroski can be regarded not only as an equal to Ozzie Smith at their respective positions but a significant superior. I should note I am not entirely thrilled with any sabermetric fielding stat since variations in ballpark size and proportion, composition of pitching staffs, and so very importantly era. As an example of the “era effect”, today’s players get fewer chances per game than their predecessors due to our era’s wildly increased number of strike-outs. That dampens fielders’ range factors as well, as there are fewer balls to reach to make plays on through no fault of their own.

To give an example, the 2000 edition of Baseball Abstract ranks Mazeroski as the second best fielder ever - any position, any era. Baseball Abstract’s fielding runs ranking has Maz’s total of 362 second only to Napoleon Lajoie’s 366. That in a near equivalent 2,094 games for Maz to Nap’s 2,035. Ozzie Smith, on the other hand, managed only 243 - 50% fewer - in 2,511 games, 25% more.

That puts Maz behind only Lajoie at his position and Smith behind Bill Dahlen and Jack Glasscock at his, with all three of the higher ranking fielders being dead ball era players. That fact indeed demands the same sort of contextual re-evaluation as, for example, Frank “Home Run” Baker winning four consecutive home run crowns from 1911 through 1914 with 10, 11, 12, and 9 four sackers (and #2 finishes in 1916 and 1919 with 10 each) contrasted with Babe Ruth’s totals of 59, 35 (in 2/3rds of a season), 41, and 46 precisely a mere decade later. Ruth indeed was a superior hitter, but the game changed that profoundly.

Thus it is really as irrelevant to compare many if not most dead ball era fielding stats to post dead ball (even accepting variations in the game since the lively ball was introduced, such as the high offense ’30s, ’90s, and 2000s and low ’60s and ’70s) as it is to compare Baker’s home run totals to Ruth’s, single season and career.

That said (and dead ballers out), Maz is #1 of modern fielders, any position, and Smith is #4, and #1 at his, behind Mike Schmidt (#1 at third with 265 Fielding Runs) and Tris Speaker (#1 all-time in the outfield with 248, though he spent half his career in the dead ball era. Interestingly, Speaker’s putouts per game stayed almost equal before and after, 2.5 to 2.6, and his assists reasonably steady (considering the differences in his ages, 19 through 30 before and 31-40 after), at .18 per game to .15, some 271 before and 191 after, for an absolutely astonishing career outfield total of 449.

To put Speaker’s assist total in context, consensus all-time great center fielders Joe DiMaggio and Willie Mays managed only 153 in 1,721 games and 195 in 2,842 respectively, for per game totals of .09 and .07 apiece – half Speaker’s.

Returning to Maz v. Smith, Baseball Abstract credits Mazeroski with 37.8 Fielding Wins – good for #1 All Time, bar none. Smith is at #6 with 25.4, behind dead ballers (whom we’re not counting here) Lajoie at 36.9, Dahlen at 33.2, Bid McPhee at 27.5, and modern day hot corner glove marvel Mike Schmidt at 27.3. Speaker trails immediately behind Oz with 24.8.

Turning to single season achievements, Mazeroski has three of the top 10 ever double-play years - #1 at 161, #3 at 144, and #5 at 138 – for seasons compiled by modern players. Smith does not appear in the top 10 at short at all (but Lou Boudreau does, #4 at 134 in 1944.)

Folks, these are the figures as of 2000, I’m not making them up. This considering Ozzie played on hot, hot Astroturf on the Cardinals with a much bigger mitt on teams with lots of ground ball inducing pitchers, and Maz on grass with a much smaller one and no wheels to speak of.

In single season Fielding Runs Mazeroski is #3 (all-time, all players, #2 post dead ball) with 56.7, #20 with 41.1 (#8 post dead ball), and #25 with 40.8 (#11 post dead ball) before Ozzie makes an appearance on the list, tied with Maz at 40.8.

At their positions, Maz’s best season is #2 (all comers), and Ozzie’s is #5 (#3 post dead ball).

In the Top 100 all time single season Baseball Abstract Fielding Wins Maz is #2 (all comers) at 6.2, #20 (#11 post dead ball) at 4.3, #24 (#14 post dead ball) at 4.1, and #55 (#35 post dead ball) at 3.6. Ozzie comes in at #16 (#8 post dead ball) at 4.3 and #63 (#38 post dead ball) at 3.5.

I trust this is eye-opening to some of you who never saw both players in their primes. The stats above are a mixture of raw single season and career numbers and metrics. The latter flawed perhaps, as all fielding metrics are. I welcome any other similar analysis using other ones, with a critique of their strengths and weaknesses if possible.

In closing, Maz was without question the best fielding second baseman in the post dead ball era, well beyond any modern runner-up. Ozzie without question is the best modern shortstop. In fielding, their careers are sufficiently equivalent regardless of whom one wishes to rank ahead of one another.

At the bat, Mazeroski’s career .260 batting average was but two points below Smith’s .262 – though normalized for era using a metric like that at baseball-reference.com Smith’s improves much more than Maz’s does – 20 points to six.

Neither man had much pop, with Maz having something of an edge in slugging (.367 to .328), hitting many more home runs (138 to 28 in 1,500 more at bats) and hitting the same number of triples (62 to 69). Ozzie had more doubles – 402 to 294.

Both men were difficult to strike out, among the harder of their eras. Mazeroski struck out but once every 11.0 ABs, while Smith a sterling one in 16.0.

Ozzie walked much more (once every 8.8 at bats versus one every 17.3 at bats.), leading to a big advantage in on-base percentage (.337 to Maz’s absolutely anorexic .299).

The one great advantage Smith had over Mazeroski offensively was his base stealing (which I am not nearly as down on as an offensive strategy as some, being context dependent in a way that no metric will ever tease out), swiping 508 bags in 656 attempts for a 77% success rate to Mazeroski’s invisible 27 in 60 at 45%.

I hope this head to head with a figure that all contemporary baseball fans recognize as one of the very best fielders ever, who of course got into the Hall on that fielding prowess, will help fans recognize that Mazeroski was not by any measure a hopeless charity case in being recognized by the Veterans Committee for enshrinement in the Hall of Fame.

If anything, their election in 2001 corrected a decades long oversight.

Xavier Nady, one of the top five or 10 outfielders in all of MLB (AVG .330/OBP .383/SLG .535/OPS+ 141 with Pirates in 2008), and Damaso Marte, one of the top five lefty relievers in MLB (BAA .217, 16 BB, 47 K with Pirates in 2008) were traded to the Yankees for three middling AAA pitchers and a high risk 19-year-old prospect with a hamstring injury and temper control issues.

Jason Bay, one of the top five outfielders in all of MLB over the last five years (OPS+ 132, 150, 138, 93, 135) was traded for a bad middle reliever, a prospect fresh off of the DL with an OPS+ 70, an average OF prospect with 2,524 minor league AB’s and only 108 major league AB’s and a 21-year-old AA pitching prospect.

Rant Mode Activated:

IS DAVE LITTLEFIELD STILL RUNNING THE PIRATES!!!!!!!!!!!!! How could this happen! What happened to accountability from the new front office? What happened to not making a trade just to make a trade? How could GM Neal Huntington and CEO Frank Coonelly be so far off base? These are terrible trades, even if Jose Tabata turns into Roberto Clemente! You trade two of the best outfielders in MLB and can’t even get another team’s best prospect, but instead settle for prospect #3 or #4 or #75? You forgo QUALITY for QUANTITY?

Rant Mode Deactivated.

A closer look…

For Nady and Marte, the Pirates received:

By their own analysis, the Pirates received two “middle-of-the-rotation” pitchers and one “back-end” rotation pitcher. How does that help you reach the post-season? Tabata is a high risk prospect due to his young age and temperament, but perhaps the blind squirrel will find a nut and the Pirates will get lucky. Even so, the Yankees had better prospects and Huntington should have walked away unless Brian Cashman parted with one of them.

For Bay, the Pirates received:

So for one of the top outfielders in MLB, the Pirates received a bad relief pitcher, a young pitching prospect with average stats and still 2-3 years from Pittsburgh, a low-power corner outfielder, and a 3rd baseman who looks promising. How does that help you reach the post-season? Perhaps LaRoche can replace Bay’s offensive production, but I wouldn’t take that gamble.

These trades have set back the Pirates organization at least two years, if not three. I look forward to 2010 when Ryan Doumit and Nate McLouth are traded for a case of baseballs and a six-pack of IC Light beer. At least you could drink the beer.

WINNERS

Los Angeles Angels. Acquiring Mark Teixeira without doing major damage to their farm system or major league club has to be the ultimate win to date. Casey Kotchman is a solid first baseman (.283, 12, 54) but not an impact bat like Teixeira. Just look at what he did last year down the stretch for Atlanta (56 RBI in August and Sept) and you could see why I believe the Angels have become the prohibitive favorite in the American League

New York Yankees. I will make them winners with an asterisk. You have to give Brian Cashman credit for improving the offense and bullpen while giving up only Kyle Farnsworth from the major league roster. Their moves weren’t without pain as Jose Tabata and Daniel McCutchen were highly regarded prospects. But I don’t believe a team that can give at best three of five quality starts every week can let the trading deadline pass without a acquiring a starting pitcher and be considered a total winner.

Los Angeles Dodgers. You get a future Hall of Famer and give up nothing from the major league roster? You have to call LA a winner, but unfortunately Manny can’t make this flawed team better all by himself. Good drawing card for the next two months, but I can’t see the Dodgers being any more of a contender then they already were in the weak West. Arizona is still better, but the buzz Manny will generate alone is worth putting them in the “win” column.

Pirates. They gave up Jason Bay and received four prospects. Losing for a 16th straight year might be a little easier to swallow if any of these guys pan out as some have predicted.

LOSERS

Seattle Mariners. Why would you hold on to overpriced aging veterans? The greed of the chaotic Seattle front office might cause them to rue their decision come late August. I would have been glad to dump Washburn’s salary on the Yankees. Asking for a “Brett Gardner type prospect” should have been a bargaining chip, not a reason to walk away from the deal. In what world would a “36 year old free agent to be” (Raul Ibanez) fetch a team’s top pitching prospect? Obviously not this world as Seattle failed to trade Ibanez to the Mets or Cubs. Oblivion has to start somewhere and GM Lee Pelekoudas is off to a great start.

Boston Red Sox. With all due respect to my colleague and sabermatrician Howard Megdal, there is no way Jason Bay can replace Manny Ramirez. Statistically I understand it might be close, but the presence that Manny provided the Red Sox can’t be replaced. Bay to me is a good hitter that feasts on mediocre pitching. I have no faith in him in a big spot and don’t like how he can’t hit lefties (.190). Someday they will be yearning for the Manny that was never fully appreciated by the Boston front office.

Florida. Acquiring Arthur “kerosene on the fire” Rhodes should be enough to put them in the loser category.

MISSED OPPORTUNITY

Tampa. Jason Bay in Tampa is a far different situation then replacing Manny in Boston. If prospects are all that Tampa would have to give up then it’s unfortunate that the short sidedness of the Boston front office hurt more than one team’s pennant chances.

Philadelphia. That bullpen ain’t gonna get it done. Mahay would have been the perfect answer to neutralize lefties late in games (i.e. Carlos Delgado). Now they have to hope the pen continues to overachieve and Brad Lidge doesn’t implode. Good luck.

“Comedy is tragedy plus time.” – Carol Burnett

A deadline deal has finally settled the dispute between the Boston Red Sox and future Hall of Famer Manny Ramirez.

THANK GOD!!!

I am so glad this is finally over. The only thing worse than hearing about Manny being unhappy and the Red Sox being undeserving of his talents is the Brett Favre fiasco.

As it breaks down, the Red Sox have dealt Manny to the Dodgers, while Boston gets All-Star outfielder Jason Bay from the Pirates, with Pittsburgh getting a pair of prospects from both teams: Brandon Moss and Craig Hansen from Boston and Andy LaRoche and Bryan Morris from Los Angeles.

My assessment of this trade is as follows:

* The Pirates get four solid prospects to help them do what they have been doing for years now: rebuilding for the future. Overall grade: B

* The Red Sox replace a 30 HR, 100 RBI guy with a serious attitude and hustle problem for a 30 HR, 100 RBI guy with a great attitude and hustle to spare. Overall grade: A++

* The Dodgers add a future Hall of Famer, whose self discipline and attitude are seriously in question, and who will most likely not be in L.A. after this season. The question is will Manny feel “appreciated” by the Dodgers, or will he bring his 6.0 second running time down the first baseline to the City of Angels? Overall Grade: C

Several years ago the Red Sox front office tried to trade Manny and failed to do so. The result was Manny winning a World Series MVP as the curse was finally exercised. This year the Red Sox were in the same position, only this time failure to trade Manny was not an option. He simply had to go for the betterment of the team.

Sources close to the Red Sox have said that in private meetings with management prominent Boston players have been pushing for a Manny trade for well over a week now. What has been affectionately called “Manny being Manny” for the last few years has become “Damn that Manny” in the Red Sox dugout and front office. It was clear that Manny was unhappy with his situation, but one has to ask: Why?

What is so bad now that has Manny not hustling? This lack of hustle and work ethic, regardless of his career numbers, is inexcusable. For those who think that it doesn’t matter, you are DEAD WRONG. All of the positives that Manny brings to the field are negated by any single instance of non-hustle or possible self sabotage that he might have had for the Red Sox. No matter how well he hits, you cannot take the chance that Manny, in an instance of “defiance”, will not run hard down the first baseline possibly costing you a game. Or the playoffs. Or the World Series.

When the deal with the Marlins fell through (which was a shame, because if he had been dealt to Florida the title of this article would have been “Manny the Marlin and his Missing Red Socks”) they didn’t stop looking for a team to take their ticking time bomb. They found a team willing to take “the problem” and didn’t miss a beat offensively by acquiring a hitter, Bay, who is just as solid as Manny is at this point in Manny’s career. It also keeps Jason Bay from going to the rival Tampa Bay Rays, giving them the much needed extra bat that all of the experts keep claiming they need to make it to the playoffs.

In the future, Manny Ramirez will be a first ballot Hall of Famer, going down in history as one of the 25 greatest hitters of all time when his career is over.

In the present, Manny Ramirez is a Dodger, and the Red Sox couldn’t be happier.

The Red Sox have finally gone and done it … traded Manny Ramirez. By now you’ve surely heard the details, so you know that the Sox received Jason Bay for a total package of Ramirez, Brandon Moss, Craig Hansen and the $7 million left on Manny’s contract. That seems like an awful big price for Jason Bay, but the end result is a wash in measurable performance and a clear upgrade in the clubhouse.

The first thing you have to remember when you try to analyze this deal is that the Red Sox didn’t trade the Manny Ramirez of five years ago. No, they traded the Manny who is 36 years old. He’s still a dangerous hitter, but he isn’t the guy who finished in the top 10 in the MVP voting from 1998 to 2005. That guy is gone. Let’s look at how Manny compares to Bay over the last four years.

Ramirez is the better hitter, but the gap isn’t very big. Last year Bay was injured and horrible. He’s recovered nicely this year and his stats are nearly a mirror image of Manny’s. Ramirez hits for a higher average, but their power numbers are pretty equal and they draw walks at the same rate. In the end, the Red Sox offense won’t be quite as potent, however the drop off will be difficult to notice.

Defense. This is where the trade undoubtedly helps the Sox. There are a few fielding metrics out there and none of them is perfect, but it doesn’t take a perfect system to show us the difference between the two players. We’ll use Revised Zone Rating to compare Bay and Ramirez. Simply put, RZR is the percentage of balls hit into a fielder’s zone that he converts into outs. Here’s the last four years.

Until this year there was simply no comparison between the two; maybe Manny was serious about trying to win a Gold Glove. Even with Ramirez’ up-tick in performance this year, Bay is the better fielder by far. Not only does this save runs, but it means the end of defensive switches in left field for the Red Sox.

What does it all add up to? Let’s use Wins Above Replacement Player to measure the statistical value of the two players.

Manny’s defensive surge this year is the only thing that makes him as valuable as Bay, and even then we’re talking about one win better. Bay was the far better player in 2005 and 2006 despite the fact that the raw hitting numbers seem to favor Ramirez. You have to squint pretty hard, and assume that Manny’s defensive improvement continues, to reach any conclusion other than “the Red Sox will be just as good with Jason Bay in the line-up as they were with Manny Ramirez”.

One of the things I’ve heard the talking heads chattering about is the fact that Bay has never played in the postseason while Manny owns October. Obviously, I can’t speak for Bay. We won’t know how he does in the playoffs until he has the chance, but I assume like most players he will perform roughly the same as he does in the regular season. As for Manny, what I know is that he’s put up a lifetime line of .269/.376/.513 in the playoffs. Wait, what? You mean Manny doesn’t own October? What about the ALCS last year, you ask? Yes, he was otherworldly in that series. 9 for 22 with 9 walks. Just another example of short term success getting stuck in our minds and crowding out some other subpar performances. He hit .250 in last year’s World Series. He hit .056 for Cleveland in the 1999 ALDS. Again, Manny Ramirez is one of the greatest hitters ever to play the game, and he’s had some great postseason series, but his overall performance in the playoffs isn’t anything special.

The prospects, Moss and Hansen, are another red herring being thrown out by those who think this is a bad trade. Brandon Moss’ ceiling looks to be as a fourth outfielder in the majors. Given the right situation he could hit .300 someday, but he doesn’t have much power, which hurts a player limited to a corner outfield spot. Bottom line, if he’s in your starting outfield coming out of spring training your team probably isn’t going to be very good. Craig Hansen? His stock has been dropping like a rock for two years now. Once seen as the closer of the future for the Sox he still hasn’t figured out how to turn his stuff into outs. He’s thrown 30 plus innings this year and given up 29 hits and 23 walks. That is far too many baserunners. Someday he might figure it out, but he’s 50/50 at best. It’s funny how the explosion of information has changed fans’ attitudes about trading prospects; twenty years ago nobody would’ve blinked an eye at adding these two players to this deal. In the end they have far more value to a rebuilding team like the Pirates than they do to the Red Sox.

The final piece to analyze in this deal is the effect the trade will have on the clubhouse. Statistically-minded fans sometimes get a bad rep for giving short shrift to things like chemistry. It’s not that I don’t believe that chemistry exists or that it’s not important. I don’t agree with anybody who says “if I can’t measure it, it doesn’t exist.” I just don’t think chemistry is quite as big a factor as most people. All that said, the impression the public is left with by media reports and Manny’s own words is that things are going to be a lot calmer in the Red Sox clubhouse for the rest of the year. I have to believe that will help the other players perform a little bit better.

The Red Sox helped themselves by trading Manny Ramirez. They might have lost a small bit of offense, but they made up for that difference on defense. They certainly eliminated a large distraction as they gear up for the stretch run. They probably would have made the playoffs with Ramirez in the lineup if we assume that he wasn’t going to take any more games or plays off. They’ve increased their chances by replacing him with Jason Bay.

I initially thought trading for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte was a steal for the Yankees: the corner outfielder and lefty relief pitcher they needed for three prospects and a Triple A/major league tweener.

But at second glance, the trade isn’t as great as everyone is making it out to be – at least in this Yankee fan’s mind. For a guy who has hit .330 this year (his career best), Nady has only 57 RBIs and 50 runs – both totals ranking just third on his own team. I would expect those production numbers to be better, especially on the Pirates who are second in the NL in runs scored. The Pirates’ problem has been pitching, not hitting.

While Nady doesn’t strike out much (55 in 327 at bats this year), he only has 25 walks, leading to a low .383 OBP for a hitter batting .330. The benchmark OBP for a quality batter should be 80 points or more over the batting average. This lower OBP is a prime reason for Nady’s low runs scored total.

Nady is an above average fielder in right, but his defensive numbers are considerably worse when he plays left – and that’s where he’s likely to play in New York. Perhaps one option for Girardi would be to play Johnny Damon in left (when he’s healthy) and put Nady in right and Bobby Abreu at DH. Also, unless Nady hits the ball down the line, will he hit as many home runs in Yankee Stadium? His 162 game career average is just 20 home runs and 75 RBIs, and that’s the pace he’s on this year.

Does everyone remember El Duque’s great relief appearance for the Chicago White Sox against Boston in the 2005 playoffs? He came in the game in the sixth with the White Sox leading 4-3, but with the bases loaded and no outs. Well, he came in for Damaso Marte, who had loaded the bases with a single and two walks. Marte’s career numbers against the Red Sox hitters aren’t good: lots of walks and Ortiz, Manny, Varitek and JD Drew each have an OPS over 1.000. Ortiz has a homer, three RBI’s and two walks in 10 plate appearances against Marte.

The big reason I don’t like this deal is that the Yankees gave up way too much. The original deal had RHP Ross Ohlendorf, RHP George Kontos, LHP Phil Coke and OF Jose Tabata. Ohlendorf has some major league experience and all three of the other players were at Double A Trenton. But the trade was changed to remove Kontos and Coke and insert Triple A RHP’s Daniel McCutchen and Jeff Karstens, both only 25 years of age.

Karstens is very injury prone and had no future with the Yankees, but McCutchen (same 2006 draft that produced Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson and Ian Kennedy) is the one pitcher the Yankees should not have traded. He is a bulldog and, despite a 4-6 record at Triple A, he had adjusted well from a 1-6 start and has two complete games shutouts over the last month. McCutchen will probably be starting in the majors immediately, and while his initial few starts might not be impressive, he will become a very durable and productive starter for many years.

The Yankees think they made a great deal, but I’m not on board with that sentiment. They gave up too much, Nady won’t produce as he did in Pittsburgh, and Marte has bad numbers against the Red Sox. Brian Cashman needed to make a trade to satisfy all those Yankee fans demanding a move to get to the playoffs, but this isn’t the deal I would have made.

The good teams know it; the perennial bad teams don’t seem to. Approximately every five seasons, a good GM should be thinking about turning his roster over. Not necessarily wholesale changes, but the need to recognize which players are hitting their peak, which have already done so, what’s available on the market and how the team’s farm system is doing. Teams that don’t do this become the Pittsburgh Pirates, Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles, languishing below .500 season after season without a legitimate playoff hope.

But is the solution trading any and all legitimate major leaguers for as many prospects as can be had in return? There are two schools of thoughts on this, and both have their merits. And both are dependent upon good scouting, the condition of the market and, more often than not, some good old fashioned luck. Is your team made up of too many high priced, over the baseball hill veterans with salaries too prohibitive to deal? What are the prospects of the upcoming free agent class? Do potential trading partners just want to wait and see what happens in the off-season? If you can’t get top level prospects in return, is giving up your few star players actually further mortgaging the future?

This past off season, the Pirates hired a new GM, a new manager and new scouts. Ownership promised the long suffering fans of Pittsburgh a new direction. The Pirates emerge from the All-Star break at 44-50 - 12.5 games back and in fifth place in the NL Central. No one had any illusions the team was going to be in the playoffs in 2008, but GM Neal Huntington and manager John Russell have been given the task of turning the franchise around sooner rather than later. That is going to be a very tall order.

The Pittsburgh Pirates currently have only four or five legitimate major league players (I won’t include Freddie Sanchez due to his shoulder problems and their negative impact on his playing time and average. Besides the obvious need for pitching, Pittsburgh needs help at third base, second base, shortstop (if they trade Jack Wilson – but I think they should keep him) and first base (LaRoche gives them part of July and sometimes all of August). The Pirates have potential replacements in Triple A Indianapolis in Steve Pearce and Neil Walker, but neither has done well in brief chances with the big league club. Both are young enough still, but the Pirates drafting and development record isn’t a good one.

Several contenders are beginning to hold increasingly more serious discussions with the Pirates, and Pittsburgh’s new management might be ready to deal at least two or more of their serviceable players. Word around the major league rumor mill is that Pittsburgh wants top tier prospects – and lots of them.

Although it might be a public relations nightmare, trading outfielder Nate McLouth, the new face of team, might be the best way to restock the pitching. He’s having an All-Star season and in most scouts’ opinions he will only get better. Pittsburgh should listen to any offers for their young star as he could bring a very good return, especially young pitching prospects, and prospect Andrew McCutchen could replace him

Jason Bay or Xavier Nady both had very solid first halves are the two most mentioned names in trade rumors. Jack Wilson has also been a player of interest, especially for the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have been minus their star shortstop Rafael Furcal for much of the season.

The other Pirate drawing a lot of interest is lefty reliever Damaso Marte. Lefty relievers are usually a hot commodity, especially at the July non-waiver trading deadline. Contending teams have by now identified specific needs for winning a playoff spot and specific needs for going deep into the playoffs. If the Colorado Rockies decide to deal their sought after lefty reliever Brian Fuentes first, the Pirates might get more than the usual haul for Marte.

The Pirates dilemma is they need to re-build, and trading McLouth, Bay, Nady, Wilson and LaRoche would clear a lot of salary and bring lots of bodies to restock the farm system. But if these bodies don’t produce and produce quickly, the team is left with more of the same sub .500 results for many years and further alienation of their shrinking fan base.

Now that the Tampa Bay Rays have joined the realm of competent, if not elite, Major League Baseball franchises, only in Pittsburgh would a record of 40-44 elicit hope and murmurs of playoff contention. Surprisingly, the formerly offensively challenged Pirates are 3rd in the NL and 6th in all of MLB in runs scored. Alas, the good news ends there, as their pitching has been atrocious: 16th in the NL in ERA and SO, 15th in BB, and 13th in HR allowed.

Report Card:

Overall Grade: C-

Second Half Outlook:

In spite of flirting with a .500 record, I still look for Neal Huntington to trade his best players (Bay, Nady, Grabow and Marte) in an attempt to re-stock the barren farm system left by Dave Littlefield. It seems unlikely the offense will keep scoring so many runs given their middle-of-the-pack team OBP and SLG. Combined with the trade of Bay and/or Nady, a significant reduction in run production is possible.

Conversely, it is unlikely that Gorzelanny and Snell will continue to pitch as badly as they have thus far. If they begin pitching at their expected career levels, it is possible that the Pirates could overcome a decrease in run production. Combined with a typical blistering 2nd half by LaRoche and any improvement by Sanchez, the Pirates might be able to hover around .500, get lucky in a few one-run games, and threaten to end “The Streak of Futility”.

I was born into a baseball family. No, no, not like the Griffeys or the Boones, but a family that loved their respective teams. My dad was a Yankee fan who let me take the day off from school in 1978 for the one-game playoff series between the Red Sox and Yankees.

My maternal grandmother was a die hard Dodger fan who’d been widowed since before my birth. Other than Dodger games, I never heard Granny cuss. I swear that every time Steve Garvey came to the plate she’d swoon like Sinatra was batting.

My mom rebelled against her parents and was not a baseball fan. I will always blame her for my brother’s hatred of the game. He’s one of those year-round football guys. You know the type.

To this day, I remember hearing someone crying downstairs. It was my great aunt, a Yankee fan. She was in the arms of Granny – even at eight years old, I could tell that something was seriously wrong. Thurman Munson had died.

My baseball heretic brother and I were allowed to watch the Monday Night Baseball game where Bobby Murcer single-handedly beat the Orioles hours after giving a eulogy at his fallen friend’s funeral. Even the bro couldn’t help but to get into fist pumping mode when Murcer drove home the final two in the ninth.

My mom and dad divorced. The new man who was courting my mom lived in another state. He came to visit one weekend and brought me an entire wax box of 1981 Topps! I’d never had a whole box before. Usually I scrounged change to support my pack a day habit.

We moved to where he lived. Reds country. My stepdad had stories of Big Klu and a young Frank Robinson. He has yet to get over the Milt Pappas deal that sent Robinson to Baltimore where he won the Triple Crown.

On TV we got both the Pirates and Reds. During his rookie season, it seemed like Jose DeLeon took a no-hitter into the ninth inning every other outing. I was hooked on the 1983 Bucs. Yogi’s kid, Mad Dog, Dave Parker, and the awesomely underrated (in my mind) Marvell Wynne.

For my birthday, I was given my first computer – an Atari 400. I learned to program in BASIC very quickly, with one thing on my mind – create a text based statistical baseball game. With the help of the Baseball Encyclopedia I set off. No hard drive, I saved my work to cassette tapes. I even backed up my program that was going to change the world – before backing stuff up was hip.

That year’s Baseball Encyclopedia had a stat called HR%. So I’m thinking, why not base everything on 100% - so I did. For pitchers I based everything on nine innings. Strikeouts, hits, walks, home runs, on down the list. One of the things that kept it from being the greatest computer simulation of all time was the ratio of pitcher/hitter plays . . . I settled on 60% pitcher, 40% hitter.

Another thing that, looking back, should have bothered me but didn’t was the ratio of ground balls to fly balls. Totally random, runners never moved over on ground balls, and they always tagged and scored from third on any sac fly to the outfield.

That summer I stayed up all hours of the night to finish my favorite teams, the Pirates and the Reds. After about two weeks, they were done. I was able to play my own game. But I remained disciplined. Next up, the Yankees.

My parents would occasionally remove me from my cove and make me go places. One day I was in a hobby shop. That’s when I saw it. The game that would end up costing me millions (possibly billions) of dollars.

Avalon Hill’s Statis Pro Baseball ruined me. After examining the box for about an hour, I HAD TO HAVE IT. The game would allow me to stop my late nights of programming and just play on the board, keep real score sheets, and get to know every player from every team with my carefully devised schedule.

We had no air conditioning. My room was upstairs and about 90 degrees. I remember sweating on the board. I couldn’t quit playing. Finishing a game in a half-hour was easy. During the summer of 1984, I’d play at least 26 games a day – each team twice.

Summer was over, and going to school really cramped my obsession. I would get off the bus and immediately head upstairs to feed my habit. My desire to play Statis Pro Baseball ended about a week after Detroit wrapped up the 1984 series.

Had I never walked into that hobby store, thus ending my computer programming career, I am sure that by now I would be the CEO of EA Sports – maybe just the CFO. Either way, I’d be making some serious quid.

Being the pathetically loyal Pirates fan that I am, I thought it would be fun to spend Father’s Day at the ballpark with my two-year-old son and wife. So last month when making plans, I was sad to see that the Pirates were on the road on Father’s Day, away from beautiful PNC Park. But behold! The Pirates were playing the Orioles in Baltimore, where my sister lives with her husband and six-year-old son. A plan quickly formed in my mind: how about a road-trip to “Balmur” (as it is pronounced by the locals) to see the Mighty Buccos take on the O’s?

I called my brother-in-law and we quickly obtained tickets – out of flying bat-shard range so the little guys would be safe. The wives were on board with the plan since it was a Father’s Day celebration – the one day of the year when fathers/husbands are given a little room to enjoy life without guilt and disapproving looks.

The day of the game arrived with uncharacteristically fine baseball weather for Baltimore: upper 80’s with a pleasant breeze and low humidity. Typical central-Maryland summer weather is brutally hot and humid. While the pleasant weather was a positive note, the Pirates had blown the two previous games against the O’s, including a 9th inning meltdown by closer Matt Capps the previous night, and I was feeling nervous. Witnessing a sweep in enemy territory and suffering the justified harassment from my brother-in-law and his neighbors would be a tough pill to swallow.

My little guy usually takes a two-hour nap starting at noon, which was going to make the 1:35pm starting time tough to meet. We tried to put him down early for a nap, but he wasn’t in tune with my plans and resisted sleep until after noon. To further delay our departure, he peed through the little Pirates “onesie” he was dressed in for the game, forcing a change of clothes. I viewed this as an ominous sign for the Pirates’ fortunes.

At 2:05pm, four adults and two child safety seats (each of which takes up three times the space of the actual child sitting in the safety seat) were squeezed into a Subaru Outback wagon heading to Camden Yards before we realized the umbrella stroller and been left behind! Five minutes and a U-turn later we were back on the road, and soon were outside of the original throwback ballpark – Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

We finally arrived at our seats in the fifth inning and enjoyed a competitive game, ultimately won by the Pirates in 10 innings after another back-breaking blown save by Matt Capps in the 9th. The boys clapped and cheered and appeared to enjoy the atmosphere, especially John Denver’s “Thank God I’m a Country Boy” during the 7th inning stretch. A foul ball landed only five seats away, and a free t-shirt hurled via sling-shot by the Oriole mascot was only slightly farther away. It was a wonderful Father’s Day celebration, and a reminder of the special place baseball holds in my heart. I left Camden Yards looking forward to sharing many future games with my son and nephew.

But an already good day was about to get better. While enjoying refreshments at a sidewalk table of the Wharf Rat restaurant across Pratt St. from Camden Yards, I spotted a man walking towards me in understated Pirates logo shorts, polo-shirt, hat, and dark sunglasses. Again, being the pathetically loyal Pirates fan that I am, I immediately recognized him as Pirates President Frank Coonelly! He was with his wife and appeared to be “undercover”, just walking along the street like any other fan leaving the game. I quickly announced his name to my group and those around us, and he was kind enough to shake hands and exchange commentary from the tumultuous weekend series. Mr. Coonelly stayed for perhaps two minutes before continuing on his way, and I immediately regretted not offering to buy him a beer. What an opportunity that would have been to pick his brain!

So when Father’s Day arrives next year, take my advice and head to a baseball game with your Dad and/or children. Whether your team wins or loses, you will have made a special memory. Who knows, perhaps you’ll even get to meet Larry Lucchino or Hank Steinbrenner or Jamie McCourt or…

Most of the game’s new managers are going to have to be patient – their teams are going to lose a lot of games over the next few years. Here’s a look at the new managers and the challenges they face.

Trey Hillman, Royals

Hillman was a very odd choice, and fears have already surfaced in Kansas City that this manager who has experience only in Japan, might not be in any way ready for the majors. He is tinkering with the lineup, submitting very odd batting orders and bunting far too often with the wrong people. Japanese baseball is in no way the equal of the major leagues and while it’s noble that the Royals didn’t go to the retread mill in selecting their new skipper, there were far better choices out there. But as in the case of Pittsburgh and Baltimore, the Royals have been bad, are bad, and will be bad for quite some time. The Royals need someone guiding the team on the field who won’t potentially ruin young players like Alex Gordon and Billy Butler by batting them in odd spots, using too much platooning, and bunting with them if the “book” calls for it rather than turning them loose. The Royals are on the right track with the hiring of several veteran management personnel from the Atlanta organization, but I think Hillman is a big mistake on their part.

Cecil Cooper, Astros

Not much has been said or heard about the new Houston Astro manager. He was an Astros bench coach last season before he took over after the firing of Phil Garner, and he had the interim tag removed during the offseason. He had a very productive major league career and is well respected throughout the game. Cooper is a much unknown commodity as a manager and it seems at this point that he is merely someone given the job to relay GM Ed Wade’s wishes. The Astros made many changes in the offseason and I believe Wade is not someone who should be running a team. Houston can’t seem to decide if they are rebuilding or simply fine tuning. It shouldn’t be too long before Cooper, instead of Wade, is used as the proverbial scapegoat and a buddy or two of Wade is brought in to further disrupt what should have been a couple of rebuilding seasons.

John Russell, Pittsburgh

The new manager of the Pittsburgh Pirates has a very successful track record in the minors as a manager (forget last season as the Ottawa Lynx were simply a very bad baseball team). He has a reputation as a very hard worker and an excellent teacher. I interviewed Russell many times last season while he managed Ottawa and can state without hesitation that he is a very fine baseball man, very patient, and a heckuva nice guy. I commend the Pirates organization for having the courage to hire a relatively unknown (to those who don’t work in baseball) baseball man. Some felt Russell was too shy and quiet to handle the job at the major league level, but that’s simply his way. That way also breeds the patience that is required to manage a team in such a mess as the Pirates find themselves. Russell of course knew this going in and while having adopted the standard baseball company line (”this team is much better than people think” and “we’ll be competitive very soon if not this season”), he knows there are many players who will need to be cut loose eventually. This season will remind him of last season in Triple A, but at least the food will be better and there won’t be those long bus rides.

Dave Trembley, Orioles

Trembley is a baseball lifer who got his big opportunity midway through last season. He managed in the minors for 20 seasons and has a deep respect for the game – something he requires of his players in terms of preparation and giving 100% each and every day. He is also very familiar with the Orioles’ minor league talent, such as it is. He surely knows the awful mess that Baltimore is, and that it will be several years before the organization can be competitive. His big project of course is Daniel Cabrera – an imposing pitcher with terrific stuff but no control and seemingly no idea of how to pitch. If the Orioles finally trade Brian Roberts to the Cubs, it should give Trembley two or three more pitchers to work with, including at least one starter. With the offseason trading of Bedard, he has to count on a large group of pitchers with injury histories and/or with little or no experience. The Oriole scouting department and higher management haven’t done a very good job evaluating talent over the years. It seems like players such as a Majewski and Penn might have been badly over rated. As in the case of John Russell, Trembley will have to teach and be patient.

Ron Washington, Rangers

Another well respected man throughout the game – just not very well respected by many of the Rangers. Washington is a very demanding type of manager which didn’t sit well with the veterans on the Rangers who were used to their mediocre play being accepted. Washington inherited a team with virtually zero pitching (”horrible” would be a more accurate term especially when discussing the starting pitching) that too often fell back on the “we pitch in a hitters park” excuse. The trading of Mark Teixeira was a good one, and keeping owner Dan Hicks away from baseball decisions is a crucial step. Rumors have been rampant that Washington is soon to be out the door, but he’s survived so far. The Rangers are not as bad as Baltimore or Pittsburgh, but they still need to be tearing down as opposed to building up. They need to trade the two or three remaining major leaguers they have and get as many prospects, especially pitching, as they can.

Joe Girardi, Yankees

Lots and lots of pressure here. The man he is replacing is a legend in New York and a guy who knew how to adapt his style to whatever type of team he was given. Girardi guided a very young and inexperienced Florida team to a pretty decent season a couple of years ago. That’s much easier to do when there are zero expectations, and when you have young players who are more easily managed. Not so with the Yankees, who are a veteran team used to a lot of rope and doing things their way. The question is not whether Girardi is a solid baseball man, (years as the Yankee bench coach and a very good job with that Florida team), but whether he’ll leave the veterans alone.

New York, however, is getting younger (Giambi, Matsui, Damon, Mussina and a few others should be gone in the next two years), so Girardi should get the chance to mold the team to his liking. Of course, if the Yankees’ slow start continues, who knows what the Steinbrenners could do.

Doug Bird was longtime Montreal Expos and Ottawa Lynx fan. Sadly, both teams are no more. He’ll be following minor league baseball on MiLB.com this season. Doug has written about baseball, music, history and politics for various websites. Like most Canadians, he has a dislike of anything from Toronto.

Washington, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Tampa have been the proverbial doormats the past few years. If you had to play for one of these organizations, which would it be? – Peter C.

All four organizations appear to be on the rise, and that’s a great sign for baseball. To answer your question I’d ask myself two separate questions: 1) which place could I be the most productive in and 2) who has the best components to win and get to the post season.

Baltimore would be my first pick. I played some of my best offensive baseball there. I loved getting ready to prepare to play a game there, and they had great facilities for the players. They have a new General Manager/President, Andy MacPhail, who is one of the best. Aligning yourself with a class act like Andy is always a good move. He’s a straight shooter and is a no nonsense type executive with a passion for the game. Terry Crowley is the hitting coach and that would be another very important reason for my decision. Hitting coaches are vital the success of a lot of players, and Crow is one of the best; we were together in Minnesota in 1991. A team needs three things to win: horses on the field, the manager/staff capable of managing a World Series game, and a supportive front office – and that doesn’t just mean paying high salaries. With MacPhail and the staff, the Orioles have two of the three in place.

Pittsburgh would be my 1A choice. I wouldn’t have felt that prior to this year, but they’ve brought a lot of great management talent. They have some of the best evaluators and leaders in scouting. Neal Huntington, Greg Smith, Larry Corrigan – and their new president, Frank Coonelly. I’ve heard good things about Coonelly – that’s he’s tough on Scott Boras and he’s an ex hockey player. And I know John Russell is a tough cookie. I like the blue-collar crowd, and I think other players will like it too.

And the Rays are looking pretty good this year, so I couldn’t go wrong with them either. I was extremely fortunate to be surrounded by some of the best athletes in the world when I played. It always motivated me to play in an environment with so many skilled players, and Tampa has plenty.

This story tells how Sam Holden was sitting in a pub in Ottawa in 1996 when his friend Bill MacKenzie, a Rockies scout, told him about how all the bats in baseball were breaking because of soft ash.

Sam did his research and found that maple was harder and ash and made a better bat. He made his first bat out of the maple banister on his stairway in his own house. From there he gave one to Joe Carter, and Carter illegally used it in 1997. MLB did not approve the “Sam Bat“ until 1998. The next year Carter gave one to Barry Bonds, and Barry used a Sam Bat for the rest of his career. Today there are over 500 players who use a Sam Bat. Other company’s like Maxx Bats and Xbats have over 400 players using their maple bats. Records show that as late as 2005 there were more players using ash over maple. Today the only notable players still using ash are Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Prince Fielder.

The problem with maple bats is that when they break, they shatter. According to this story in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, only last week Don Long a Pirate batting coach was struck two inches below his eye by a splinter of Nate McLouth’s maple bat. Long was watching the ball from the dugout as the splintered end of the bat went full force into his cheek.

Here’s what Pirates manager John Russell said to the Post-Gazette:

It’s amazing how those maple bats just explode. Ever since they brought those into baseball … I know guys like them, but they are dangerous because they explode. They can go as far as the outfield. It’s a sharp projectile flying through the air. It’s scary. … I think probably they are going to look into it because you would hate for someone to really get injured.

Maybe it is time for baseball to ban maple and go back to ash. What do you think - are maple bats a safety issue? Does baseball need to put up Plexiglas near home plate because of flying maple weapons? If you’re not safe in the dugout, you could get hit anywhere. All wood bats can break, but maple has become dangerous.

I have known that Fenway Park was a special and unique baseball location since 1987, when I first played Earl Weaver Baseball on a Tandy 1000 SX computer. In what was an incredibly detailed, stats-geek utopia baseball simulation, a user could build custom ballparks by altering the field type, wall height and distance, and grandstand levels. But you could never, and I mean never, reconstruct Fenway Park because it was just too convoluted, weird, and unique. Luckily, Earl Weaver Baseball came with a custom rendering of Fenway complete with the Green Monster, the centerfield oddities, and the nearly parallel right field foul line and wall. That was my introduction to Fenway Park, and I have always wanted to experience the atmosphere firsthand.

Fast-forward 21 years to mid-April 2008, and I found myself scheduling a hasty business trip to Boston with two co-workers. After hotel, plane, and rental car reservations were made and my boss signed off on the paperwork, I quickly checked the Red Sox schedule to see if they were home during my visit. Yes! They were home on April 23rd versus the Angels. But now the more challenging question, could I get tickets?

My Boston-based co-workers had regaled me with nightmare stories concerning Red Sox tickets. Their tales of $400 tickets, shady scalpers, and the selling of your first-born son led me to believe my sojourn to Fenway was impossible at worst or cost-prohibitive at best. It seemed a long shot, but I thought “What the hell, let’s give it a try!” With little hope I logged onto mlb.com, went to the Red Sox team page and five minutes later had three tickets in section G29 at Fenway Park!

How could this be? It wasn’t hard; it was as easy as getting a ticket to a Pirates game! Something must be amiss. I quickly hypothesized that I must have been duped into some obstructed view seats or worse, but Google research turned up nothing awry. Perhaps the horror stories were an elaborate hoax by the Red Sox Nation to prevent more competition for “their” Red Sox tickets, much like the Forbidden Zone in the movie Planet of the Apes was designed to prevent the discovery of the true origins of ape society? Whatever the case, I was going to Fenway.

The baseball gods were smiling on my fellow co-workers (Bruce and Ronald, names changed to protect their innocence) and me the day of the game. The weather was spectacular for a New England spring, with temperatures hovering in the low 80’s and a gentle breeze blowing. Furthermore, we wrapped up our work duties early by 3:30pm and were driving to the Woodland subway station on the Green Line by 4:30pm. After just one wrong turn we found the station and were waiting in line to buy tickets from the silly automated “Charlie” fare system. Two inbound trains passed while we were waiting, and after finally catching the third train we were dismayed to discover that cash was accepted on the train and the Charlie tickets was superfluous. Ahh, government bureaucracy and waste at its best!

The subway ride was pleasant, as the route wound through elegant neighborhoods with varied architecture and mature trees and foliage. The subway car was filled with Red Sox fans proudly wearing their colors.

The Fenway station was a few blocks from the Park itself, and we walked with the throng through the surrounding neighborhood before stumbling upon Gate A and the historical park. The mood was festive, the local taverns filled, and the smells wonderful. Being jammed in the middle of an old neighborhood, surrounded closely on all sides by buildings, the ballpark scents of sausage, popcorn, hamburgers, pizza, and beer had nowhere to go. I found that the medley of aromas set the mood perfectly.

We walked around the stadium, taking in the sights and photo opportunities. We had hoped to enter the Boston Beer Works, but it was overflowing, so we picked up our tickets at Will Call and entered Fenway Park through Gate B. We immediately found the import beer garden and were soon sipping Harp and Guinness Stout ($7.75). The prices were the typical ballpark highway robbery, but I was pleased to find the prices no worse than PNC Park or Heinz Field.

We wandered around the entire concourse, taking a ramp here, steps there, always under the grandstand structure, with large steel beams exposed. Ronald and I each enjoyed an overflowing cheese steak ($5.50), while Bruce was under whelmed with an Italian sausage with peppers and onions ($6.50). After getting a program ($5.00) and another round of beer, we finally headed to our seats at about 6:45pm, 20 minutes before the first pitch.

Our tickets were in the lower level in Section G29, Row 10, Seats 9-11. The view was good, though the jumbo-tron was obstructed by a support beam. But the seats, which were so old you would need carbon-dating to discover their age, were like medieval torture devices! Both Bruce and Ronald are big guys and they were squashed together like embryonic twins, while even my smaller size was uncomfortably pinned front and back, left and right.

Not only are the seats small, but Fenway Park itself is an incredibly small venue for a MLB game. Even though I was mentally prepared for the small size, the overall park dimensions were more like AA or AAA stadiums. PNC Park, which has only a slightly larger seating capacity than Fenway, feels much larger and grander.

Ultimately won by the Angels 6-4, the details of the game were irrelevant to my friends and me, but the contest was close throughout and high-lighted by a rocket shot over the Green Monster by Gary Matthews, Jr. and a Big Papi two-run homer to right field. I was very impressed with the Red Sox fans, as they were focused on the game throughout (except for the two “valley girls” behind me who chattered non-stop about boyfriends, New Year’s Eve parties, trendy apartments, designer clothes, marriage, and other girls they did not like, never once acknowledging the baseball game progressing in front of them). The Red Sox Nation was polite, knowledgeable, and friendly, even though I proudly wore my Pirates hat. To underscore the excellent crowd behavior, I did not hear a single obscene or profane comment.

I was also pleased by the helpful stadium personnel, the overall cleanliness of the facility and the absence of mascots. The mid-inning music was incredibly loud and distracting, though perhaps I am just a curmudgeon. The ladies’ restroom lines were out of the door and around the corner, and I was thankful to breeze in and out of the men’s room.

After seven innings, Bruce’s knees were bashed from the seats in front of him, so we watched the 8th and 9th innings from the Boston Beer Works (I recommend the Beantown Nut Brown Ale) across the street from Fenway Park. After the final out, we headed back to the Fenway station and caught the crowded subway back to the Woodland station parking garage, and so ended my Fenway Park experience.

Twenty-one years after first discovering Fenway Park via the 16-color graphics of Earl Weaver Baseball on a home PC, I had finally experienced the real thing. I enjoyed the experience, the ambience, the crowd, the food, the tradition, and most of all, Fenway Park itself. For anybody with even a passing interest in baseball history, an excursion to Fenway Park is a must. You will not be disappointed!

Spring Training 2008 generated drama, controversy, surprise, and hope, even for the Pirates who have a largely established roster. Several story lines from Bradenton provided Pirates fans with reasons to pay attention:

• Drama: Freddy Sanchez’s ailing throwing shoulder. Will he be ready for Opening Day?
• Surprise: Pirates trade minor leaguer Todd Redmond to Atlanta for reliever Tyler Yates
• Controversy: Sean Burnett is the last cut after an excellent Spring showing. Did the Pirates take the 12 best pitchers north?
• Hope: Adam LaRoche hit well in Florida; will he carry over into April and the regular season?
• Drama: Which Zach Duke version will we see, 2005 or 2006/2007?

While these story lines may have satiated some of our hunger for baseball, we have finally reached the games that matter! So let us examine the expected strengths and weaknesses of the 2008 Pittsburgh Pirates 25-man roster.

Starting Eight

The starting eight remains unchanged from our DugoutCentral Pirates Spring Training Preview. Nate McLouth (AVG .286/ OBP .355/ SLG .536) beat out Nyer Morgan (.224/.303/.254) for the starting centerfield position, and Ryan Doumit pushed Ronny Paulino at catcher. Freddy Sanchez’s shoulder is worrisome, but the offending joint appears to be on the mend. Jack Wilson (.304/.361/.411), Adam LaRoche (.321/.367/ .528), and Sanchez (.364/.396/.432) all hit well during spring games.

Bench

The “Older Player Who Fell on Hard Times But is Making a Comeback” story belongs to Luis Rivas this spring. Rivas, a former starter for the Twins who has enjoyed only 11 MLB ABs since 2005, had a strong spring at the plate (.345/.438/.491) and flashed impressive leather in the field. Rivas made the club as a utility infielder and will allow Sanchez’s shoulder the occasional rest. Sadly, he has never hit well enough to warrant even moderate playing time (career OPSplus 80) and his spring numbers are merely an anomaly due to small sample size. More intriguing are the eye-witness reports from Bradenton of Rivas’ exceptional defense on the infield. As shown in the Spring Training Preview, nothing in his past defensive statistics suggests even average fielding ability. Is this a deficiency in our defensive rating tools or the eye-witnesses?

Veteran utility infielder Chris Gomez hit well (.349/.404/.419) in Florida and will back up all four infield positions. Gomez lugs around a career 82 OPSplus, but provides the defensive versatility National League managers like to have on the bench to enable late inning pitching match-ups and defensive swaps.

Doug Mientkiewicz (see DugoutCentral’s long and detailed Mientkiewicz discussion) also made the big club. Mientkiewicz expanded his defensive repertoire to 2nd base, 3rd base, left field, and right field, in addition to his traditional 1st base. With Rivas and Gomez on the team, it is likely Mientkiewicz will primarily backup the corner outfield positions and fill the role of left-handed pinch-hitter.

As mentioned above, Ryan Doumit is pushing Ronny Paulino for the starting catcher position and will also see some innings in the outfield. Reports out of Bradenton indicated his catching skills are rapidly improving and it may be only a matter of time until he unseats Joggin’ Ronny.

Nyer Morgan will backup all three outfield positions and provides manager John Russell with a speedy base-runner and late-inning defensive replacement off of the bench. Still young in terms of his baseball career, Pirates management hopes to get Morgan enough ABs and innings at the MLB level to continue his growth.

Starting Rotation

There were no surprises in the starting rotation; Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelanny (see Pags’ Gorzo comments here and here, and Paul Maholm “got in their innings” and were effective for the most part. Matt Morris also “got in his innings”, and was predictably rocked (18.2 IP, 39 H, 20 ER, 3 BB, 7 K). According to Pags, Morris’ stuff is down, and he’s not fooling hitters. While his most recent start was more promising, Morris looks like a $10M bust. Thank you Dave Littlefield for leaving us this stinker to remember you by!

For a man virtually assured a spot in the rotation, Zach Duke was extremely competitive in Bradenton (19 IP, 21 H, 7 ER, 0 BB, 9 K). Reports indicate he was focused and dedicated to regaining his 2005 form.

See the Pirates Spring Training Preview for a detailed look at each starter.

Bullpen

Matt Capps, Damaso Marte, and John Grabow are largely known quantities (see the Pirates Spring Training Preview). The bullpen scrum ended up with the following winners:

Franquelis Osoria: Osoria was only slightly effective in 25 games with the Pirates last season (ERAplus 91) and had a poor K:BB ratio of 8:13 along with 33 hits in 28.1 innings. His minor league totals look impressive, until his AAA numbers are isolated from the lower levels. Osoria’s AAA K:BB ratio dipped below 2:1, whereas at the lower minor league levels he posted a 4:1 ratio. This suggests his stuff is not good enough to fool the more patient hitters at AAA, and certainly not at the major league level. No longer a youngster at age 26, Osoria appears to be the proto-typical “AAAA”, or fringe, reliever.

Tyler Yates: Obtained midway through Spring Training in a trade with Atlanta, Yates brings 145 games of major league relieving experience with a K:BB ratio of slightly less than 2:1. His peripheral numbers last season with the Braves were excellent: IP 66, H 64, BB 31, K 69, but somehow that translated into an ERAplus of 82. Contrast those numbers with 2006 when in 50 innings, he walked 31 and struck out only 46 but ended up with an ERAplus of 112! At 30 years old, Yates is a journeyman reliever who is just as likely to have a good year as a bad year.

Phil Dumatrait: Dumatrait is an intriguing waiver-wire pick-up from the Reds. A former #1 draft pick in 2000 by the Red Sox, the left-hander was almost exclusively a starter in the minors, pitching 735.2 innings in seven seasons. His minor league strikeout totals are unimpressive, as is his K:BB ratio of about 1.7, though his career WHIP of 1.35 seems reasonable. Dumatrait finally made it to the “show” last season with the Reds and was absolutely hammered in six starts. However, he would not be the first starter to successfully transition to relief pitching, so at 26 years old Dumatrait represents a low risk at a low cost with a potentially reasonable reward for the Pirates.

Evan Meek: A Rule-5 draft pick from Tampa, Meek is long on velocity and short on control. During Spring Training, Meek was reportedly taking a little speed off of his pitches in the hopes of reducing his wildness. The results were mixed: IP 10, H 8, BB 5, K 9. By retaining Meek over the recently demoted Sean Burnett who was dominant during Spring Training, the Pirates are hoping to (pardon the cliché) “catch lightning in a bottle”. It is unlikely that Meek will last the whole season with the Pirates, and if the experiment fails Burnett will be waiting at AAA to fill-in.

Summary

The Pirates starting eight are unchanged from 2007. The Pirates starting rotation is unchanged from 2007. The bench appears to be perhaps slightly upgraded, but the trio of Matt Kata, Josh Phelps, and Cesar Izturis performed well in the second half of last season. The bullpen looks weaker than 2007 and is filled with uncertainty. There is no reason to believe this team is any better than it was in 2007. This will be another long, losing season.

Prediction: 70 wins, 92 losses

This is the first in a three part series in which Kenny Doyle compares Jeff Francoeur, Brian McCann and Jair Jurrjens to Roberto Clemente, Thurman Munson and Fausto Carmona.

Is it reasonable to expect Jeff Francoeur to take the Clemente Leap in terms of performance in the next several years? Here are their respective stats from ages 21 to 23:

Clemente’s and Francoeur’s OPS+, AVG, and OBPs fluctuated in the same manner during those three years. Their cannons in the outfield are evident by their assists.   Francoeur’s slugging percentage is higher because he had more power than Clemente, but also because Clemente played in a different era.

Here is what Clemente did after age 23:

I think it’s reasonably fair to expect Frenchy to put up OPS+ numbers similar to Clemente through the age of 31.  Between the ages of 25 and 31, Clemente had a .326 AVG, a .369 OBP, and a .490 SLG.  For Frenchy to have the same OPS+ impact in this era, he will probably need to average a .300 AVG, a .360 OBP and a .550 SLG, with somewhere around 35-40 doubles and 35-40 home runs per season.

Frenchy likely won’t hit for the same high batting average Clemente did in his prime for two reasons. First, Frenchy just doesn’t have the same ability when it comes to his batting eye. Second, he’s playing in an era that values OBP and SLG more than AVG, so he’ll take more pitches to earn more walks and see better pitches he can drive.  What he’ll sacrifice in strikeouts and batting average through increased selectivity, he should make up for with a better OBP and SLG.

Even if Frenchy matches Clemente in OPS+ through 31, we can’t expect him to duplicate Clemente’s OPS+ thereafter. The freakish OPS+ numbers Clemente put up after 31 cannot be expected of many human beings.

Tampa is going to be a lot better this year, especially when Evan Longoria gets called up in May or June. He’s looked good in Spring Training, showing power to all fields and plus instincts on the field, so why put him in the minors? Money. The demotion will delay the arbitration and free agency process.

Upton and Crawford could be a lethal combination of speed and power, but the Rays still have holes to fill before they can compete with the big boys. Most importantly, the Rays still need to improve their pitching staff, with another starter, another middle reliever and a better closer. But they’re getting there. Kudos to the Rays for being committed to improving.

Kyle Lohse might have a good year for the Cardinals under the tutelage of pitching coach Dave Duncan. The right-hander has had the tendency to nibble around the strike zone, attempting to fish for swings and misses, but on Saturday against his former team, the Twins, he attacked the zone and walked just one. Perhaps Duncan can get him to be more aggressive this year.

Lohse hasn’t had good pitching stats for his career (ERA+ of 95), but he’d make a good number four starter and a great number five starter. I’m surprised he had to settle for a one year, $4.25M deal with the Cardinals. He’d be a good fit on a lot of other teams. If I’m the Mariners, I’d sure rather have Lohse at $4.25M for one year than Carlos Silva at $48M for four years.

Lohse’s pitching mechanics grade out at 21, which means he’s a moderate risk for injury. He’s a good athlete which helps him compensate for some problems within his delivery. Those problems usually lead to too many pitches up in the strike zone.

Sometimes it takes a crunch time situation for a manager to fully evaluate a player. On Saturday, Twins reliever Glen Perkins was brought in against the Cardinals in the eighth inning with the score tied at three. Perkins promptly gave up four hits and three earned runs. He pitched well (138 ERA+) in limited time last year for the Twins (28.7 innings), but a young player can’t afford this type of performance in Spring Training. He was optioned to AAA on Sunday.

In his last start Pirates pitcher Tom Gorzelanny threw a lot of breaking pitches. Whether it was because of a dead arm (83-88mph fastballs) or because he wanted to get in some additional work on his curve and slider, Gorzelanny didn’t look as good as his last few starts. It is normal for pitchers to go through a dead arm period during spring training, but that usually happens to hard throwers, not guys like Gorzelanny.

PLAYER NOTES

Tom Gorzelanny has pitched well recently for the Pirates. He is a command guy who relies on fastball location, a good changeup and speed variation on his breaking pitches. The reason Gorzelanny has a lot of value is his ability pitch 200 good innings. He had some shoulder irritation early in camp, but it hasn’t shown signings of bothering him. Gorzelanny is not the fittest guy in the world, but his pitching mechanics are good and his arm extension helps him reduce shoulder stress.

Adam’s take: Gorzelanny had an effective 2007 season for the Pirates, winning 14 games (good for 21% of the team’s wins) and posting a 3.88 ERA – good for an ERA + of 112. His 1.398 WHIP and 6.02 per 9 IP strikeout rate are less than ideal for fantasy, but improvement should be on the way as he averaged a strikeout an inning over four minor league seasons with a 1.12 WHIP. The Pirates’ offense will keep his win totals down, but expect a season of 12 wins, 3.70 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 156 strikeouts in 210 innings – a solid number four or five starter you can pick up at the end of the draft.

Kenny Rogers is back to his old self and throwing the ball well. He is a control type pitcher with good experience. He has made quality adjustments to keep his career alive. The thing Rogers does best is pitch away from trouble. He is very good at identifying and exploiting hitters’ weaknesses. Rogers won’t challenge big hitters in the lineup. He is a crafty veteran who knows how to work with a lead – and Detroit will have plenty of leads this summer.

Adam’s take: A good pitcher to have if you’re an actual team; not a good pitcher to have if you’re a fantasy team owner. If Rogers is healthy and throws 180 innings, he could win 15-17 games. So why don’t you want him on your team, even if he posts a decent ERA and WHIP? Because that strikeout rate of 4.5 Ks per inning will hurt you in that category. Two scenarios in which it does make sense to add Rogers is if you’re way out in front in the Ks category (a roster full of Scott Kazmir, Rich Hill, JJ Putz types supplemented by middle guys like Jonathan Broxton and Carlos Marmol), or if you’re already bottomed out in that category.

Miguel Cabrera is playing well defensively. His reaction time to his right and left are improving, and his weight loss will give him greater range.

Adam’s take: Good for the Tigers, bad for the Indians and irrelevant for your fantasy team – unless your league has a range factor category. Does any league have that?

Magglio Ordonez appears relaxed at the plate. He is experimenting in the batter’s box with his stance by keeping his feet closer together and standing further from the plate. Many hitters make this change in spring training because it forces them to use the opposite field. To hit the ball “correctly” to the opposite field the batter must hit the ball further back in his stance.

Adam’s take: Don’t expect to see Ordonez hit .363 again, but given the Tigers lineup a line of .320/110 runs/25 home runs/125 RBIs is likely.

PAGS’ MAILBAG

Since you’ve been a scout, have you ever really been wrong about a player?  What happened? – Paul H.

Pags: Yes, I’ve been wrong about players, just as every scout has. I’ve actually been wrong more times about domestic players than international (Pacific Rim) professionals. Our international process consists of a collaboration of scouting expertise whereas domestic scouting is more linear. For instance, take a guy like Dustin Pedroia. I can tell you that few scouts had this kid projected to play like he did last year. The reason is his body. His physical attributes didn’t project, yet his heart is as big as a lion.

Pags: Player evaluation is difficult and, in my opinion, it’s the weakest aspect of professional baseball. Being right 75% of the time is incredibly difficult. Identifying tools and ability can be done by the good scouts, but putting it all together and projecting a player’s MLB potential is the difficult part. One specific area of scouting which is very difficult is amateur scouting. The organization scouts who are able to accurately project amateurs do a fantastic job – and they should get paid more.

In all the Spring Trainings you’ve attended, both as a player and scout, who has put up the biggest “out of nowhere” performances? - Mike S.

Pags: At age 40, and coming of a bad season with the Houston Astros, Jose Cruz came to Yankees camp in 1988 as a non-roster player. He hit about .600 that spring and made the team. He hit every pitcher that he faced. Even his outs were hit hard. Billy Martin loved him.

THE MOVE

The Pirates most major league ready prospect is first baseman Steven Pearce (1.016 OPS last year between A, AA and AAA). He is blocked by Adam LaRoche who, despite his down season last year, is still a major league caliber first baseman. Pearce is learning to play the outfield, but he’s limited to the corner spots, where Xavier Nady and Jason Bay currently reside.

Nady doesn’t project the same kind of long-term success as Bay and should be traded while he’s still in his prime and his stock is relatively high. Coming off his best season as a pro (.278, 20 HR, 72 RBI, 107 OPS+), this is the moment, and it would give Pierce a place to play now.

The problem has been finding a good fit for Nady and getting something worthwhile back in return. Just yesterday, however, Cubs GM Jim Hendry announced that he would be trying to acquire an outfielder, preferably a right handed hitter, and in a perfect world, a backup centerfielder. That describes Nady pretty well.

Nady is by no means a gold glove centerfielder, but he has played 356 innings there over the course of his career. He can at least spell Felix Pie when needed, or allow the Cubs to use Kosuke Fukudome there. And Nady’s salary ($3.35M) shouldn’t be a problem for the Cubs.

The Pirates don’t have much minor league depth in the middle infield. They do have Brian Bixler, who may be the shortstop of the future. They also have second baseman Shelby Ford, but he projects more as a utility infielder. prospects. Brian Bixler is the shortstop of the future in Pittsburgh. They have prospect Shelby Ford who projects as a 2B, but as a switch-hitter who can play all three IF positions, he projects as a utility infielder. After spending eight of their last 10 top picks on pitchers, the Pirates would benefit from added position player depth in the minors. So here’s the move:

Pirates get:

• Tony Thomas – 2B (.296/.393/.533 in 199 at bats between rookie league and low A)

Cubs get:

• Xavier Nady – OF

The Pirates IF for the future would the be set with Pearce at first, Thomas at second, Bixler at short and Neil Walker at third, starting around 2009 or 2010. At that point, LaRoche could be traded and Pearce could move back to first. Current second baseman Freddy Sanchez could be moved to add some additional young pieces to their nucleus. Or, if Sanchez is still effective, perhaps he could move to the outfield or provide insurance in case Thomas or Walker don’t pan out. The Pirates could also choose to keep LaRoche at first and Pearce in right field. Regardless, it gives the Pirates some options, something they haven’t had in years.

THE LIST

Changes in Baseball

Baseball is a game under constant change. Some changes have been positive, and some have taken away from the game. Most, however, are fought against by traditional baseball fans. Even those changes that make perfect sense are frowned upon, simply because baseball has such a strong sense of tradition. Adding a wild card to the NFL playoffs means we get to watch more football, but in baseball it “devalues the post-season”. More so than any other American sport, change in baseball is fought against harder, and with more emotion than any other.

This is brought to our attention once again as the Los Angeles Dodgers plan to leave Dodgertown, Florida (also known as Vero Beach) after this spring. The move makes perfect sense for the Dodgers. They will move into a multi-million dollar facility that is state of the art everything and away from the outdated facilities they have occupied since the 40’s. They will also move significantly closer to home.

Yet it feels wrong. It feels like they are giving up on the tradition that is Dodgertown. I’m sure their new facility is beautiful, and they can name the streets after all the former players, just like they are in Vero Beach, but it’s not the same. Sandy Koufax never iced down his arm in Arizona just so he could grip a baseball. Duke Snider never roamed centerfield in the desert. Jackie Robinson certainly was not there.

There is no logical reason for not liking this move, and yet it feels wrong.

So with this feeling, I present the top ten changes that have taken place in baseball. Some have worked out well, some not so much, but almost none of them were universally accepted when they were instituted. I left out changes like using gloves for the first time and catchers wearing equipment. I stuck with changes that have taken place since baseball has been baseball as we know it.

10 – Maple Bats

I’ll have to defer to Pags on this one, but I’m pretty sure no one was using Maple Bats twenty years ago. If you haven’t hit with wood bats, this might seem like a minor detail, but hitting with Maple compared to the traditional ash is like letting NBA players do the slam dunk contest on a 9 foot rim. The difference is substantial. These maple bats don’t crack as easily, they are a harder wood and the ball jumps off them. These bats can be considered as much a contributor as any of the other factors to the rise in offense in the past ten years.

9 – Interleague Play

This is like dating the really hot girl who can’t hold a conversation. It’s fun for a while and you get to see things you might not have otherwise, but eventually you wonder what the big deal is. If you live in a National League city, you got to see the Yankees and Red Sox, and that was fun, but at this point, you would rather your team not have to play those teams, because they’re really good. We’ve been through the full cycle and everyone has had a chance to see the teams they never saw before. The novelty has run its course. Let’s go back to having teams meet in the World Series who didn’t get to see each other in June.

8 – June Player Draft

While MLB is still working out the flaws in the system regarding the slotting system and forfeiting draft picks, there is no doubt that the draft helps even the playing field. Imagine if you can the situation baseball would be in if all amateur players were subject to the highest bidder.

7 – Live Ball

We hit the “Way Back machine” for this one, but let’s face it; even the most traditional baseball fan would be less interested if the league leader every year had 12 dingers. It would certainly make fantasy baseball less interesting.

6 – Night Games

The players hated this one when it first happened, if for no other reason than the fact that it made the owners more money, and the players hated the owners. At this point, it’s hard to picture baseball without it. As much as I love day games, I wouldn’t get to see as many in person without risking my job.

5 – Astroturf

I think we can all agree that this one didn’t work out so well. What is left of artificial turf is now being converted to a more grass-like substance that you can dive on without your epidermis disintegrating. Now, with retractable roofs, there is almost no reason to have any artificial substance on your field. Every team will once again be playing on the real stuff within the next 10 years, which is the way it should be.

4 – Batting Helmets

It’s pretty hard to argue against this one. Despite the controversy about coaches being forced to wear helmets this year, it’s a completely different situation with players. Even the ear-flapless helmets seem archaic these days. The same can’t be said for the full suit of body armor some hitters wear, but that’s a debate for a different day.

3 – Teams moving West

I’m not old enough to remember baseball being played in only two time zones, but I can’t imagine a bigger change to a sports watching population than what happened to New York City when the Giants and Dodgers left and went to what at the time might as well have been the other side of the world. What is the equivalent today? The Cubs moving to Beijing? At least Cubs fans could torture themselves with satellite TV or watching online. The few Dodgers and Giants fans who weren’t so hurt they turned their backs on baseball couldn’t even listen on the radio. In the end it helped bring baseball to unprecedented heights, but at the time, what could have seemed worse?

2 – Wild Card/Divisional Play

I’m also not old enough to remember when there was only one division in each league, so having two divisions doesn’t bother me, but I can understand why it might bother older fans. The Wild Card still bothers me, but I can see the benefit of having 3-5 extra teams still in some kind of playoff hunt well into September. The idea is almost a necessity with the expansion that has taken place in the past 15 years, but the MLB playoffs have a certain prestige to them that the other sports don’t have. Too many teams take away from that. I would not be opposed to getting rid of the wild card (which will never happen due to increased revenue) but I can live with it. It’s just one of those things that rub me the wrong way.

1 – The Designated Hitter

The ultimate debate of baseball purists. You either love it or hate it. You are either an American or National League guy. It adds offense to the game, but it takes away from the strategy. It gives more players jobs, but doesn’t require all the talents of a true baseball player. There are a million different debates within this one topic. Overall, the DH is disliked, but it’s not going anywhere. Donald Fehr would never allow a rule change that takes jobs away from players.

The Pirates and Ian Snell came to agreement on a five-year deal on Sunday, worth as much as $24.6M over five years. As plainly stated by GM Neal Huntington, the Pirates get cost certainty while Snell gets financial stability, even if he never throws another pitch.

Snell, dominant in the minor leagues (58-19 W-L, 2.85 ERA, 1.15 WHIP), including a no-hitter at AAA, blossomed last year as a starter for the Buccos. At the age of 25 he posted a 3.76 ERA, 116 ERAplus, 1.332 WHIP and a K:BB ratio of 2.6 (177 strikeouts vs. 68 walks). On a better team he likely would have won closer to 30 games instead of 23 over the last two seasons.

For reasonable dollars, considering the cost of good starting pitching these days, the Pirates buy out two years of arbitration and have options for arbitration year three and free agency year one. Much like the Freddy Sanchez deal, I am quite surprised a player would give up a year of free agency, given the outrageous contracts even mediocre players are receiving.

When signing any young pitcher, the 700 pound gorilla in the room is always the risk of serious arm injury. Some pundits consider his relatively small stature at 5’ 11″ and 175 pounds to be an increased injury risk, but Snell appears to throw with a fluid motion, maximizing the leverage of his long arms and fingers. Furthermore, Snell was not abused as a young starter, pitching 8, 84, 140, 153, 163, 154, 186 and 208 innings since 2000 as a professional.

In the end, it’s a smart move for the Pirates to sign Snell, even if his elbow were to snap in half tomorrow (knock on wood). Why? Because chances are that he might be too expensive for the Pirates to sign tomorrow.

CHICAGO CUBS

Realistic Expectation for 2008: Division title.

Team’s Biggest Strength: Starting Pitching. Surprised? Don’t be. The Cubs were second in runs allowed last year and their rotation, while not overpowering after Carlos Zambrano, featured five pitchers who all finished above average in ERA+. The addition of Jon Lieber and Ryan Dempster’s continued presence means there are plenty of serviceable arms around in case of injury.

Team’s Biggest Weakness: Middle Infield. Trotting out some combination of DeRosa, Theriot, Fontenot and Cedeno every day would ensure another year of replacement level play from second base and shortstop. Sweet Lou’s insistence on hitting one of these guys in front of his big bats just makes matters worse. The trade for Brian Roberts is a necessity if the Cubs want to make a serious run at breaking their 100 year championship drought.

They can win the division if: They avoid major injury, their offense improves from its league average level of 2007 and the young Brewers and Reds prove to be still a bit too green (and pitching starved) to mount a serious challenge.

The one player they can’t afford to lose: Carlos Zambrano. Their staff is solid but unspectacular. If they all have to move up a spot in the rotation this attribute could be their undoing.

The one player most likely to break out: Derrek Lee. It’s hard to think of Lee as a breakout candidate, but Cubs fans have been pining for a return to the power numbers Lee posted before the wrist injury. His 16 second half home runs in 2007 last year bode well.

The one player most likely to tank: Pick a middle infielder.

CINCINNATI REDS

Realistic Expectation for 2008: Youth is served and the Reds manage to stay in contention into the dog days. Second place is possible but third or fourth is more realistic.

Team’s Biggest Strength: Youth. Jay Bruce and Joey Votto could join Edwin Encarnacion (25) in the starting line-up, and Brandon Phillips (27) and Adam Dunn (28) aren’t exactly old. Those five would give the Reds a great chance to raise their offensive production above the “average” level it attained in 2007. The only question is will Dusty let the youngsters play?

Team’s Biggest Weakness: Starting Pitching. Aaron Harang established himself as a stud despite pitching in a bandbox. Behind him, however, the staff is a mix of league average (Arroyo) and less than average (Fogg, Affeldt, Belisle) arms. Homer Bailey failed to justify his “can’t miss” label during last year’s trial; he or somebody else is going to have to step up to play Robin to Harang’s Batman.

They can win the division if: The young kids play, their offense improves and their staff pitches well above their heads. It helps that nobody in this division is unbeatable.

The one player they can’t afford to lose: If Harang goes down they’re toast.

The one player most likely to break out: Jay Bruce. He hit .319 with 26 HR across three levels last year. He’s only 21 but as Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki proved last year, if you can rake your age doesn’t matter.

The one player most likely to tank: Scott Hatteberg. Thirty-seven year olds who set career highs across the board usually fail to sustain that level of production for long. Managers who think they will, especially at the expense of giving playing time to younger and better players, are destined to be disappointed.

HOUSTON ASTROS

Realistic Expectation for 2008: Middle of the pack finish with a shot at .500.

Team’s Biggest Strength: I’ll damn with faint praise by saying they’ve improved their defense, offense and bullpen over the off-season. One or all of them might rise to the level of “average” this year.

Team’s Biggest Weakness: Starting Pitching. Similar to the Reds they have a stud at the top supported by, well, a bunch of other guys. I fail to understand why a team like this wouldn’t give Kyle Lohse a one year, five million dollar contract.

They can win the division if: Tejada finds the fountain of youth, Matsui’s improvement proves NOT to be a product of the thin air and somebody steps up big in the rotation. Even then it’s a long shot.

The one player they can’t afford to lose: Lance Berkman. He’s their best player and the lone holdover from the “Killer Bees”. All he does is hit, hit for power and get on base.

The one player most likely to break out: JR Towles. The division features two young catchers (Towles and Soto) who sparkled in September last year. Soto will have the bigger stage, but it will be interesting to see who has the better year when all is said and done.

The one player most likely to tank: Kaz Matsui. I already wrote this up in longer form a few months ago, but if you look at Matsui’s performance on the road last year he was exactly the same player he’s always been. The Coors-free numbers he posts in 2008 will seem like a drop-off, but we all know different.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

Realistic Expectation for 2008: Challenge for the division title. Unfortunately, their pitching staff may keep them from improving on last year’s performance.

Team’s Biggest Strength: Offense. Let’s face it; these guys can put crooked numbers on the board with the best of them. They finished fifth in the NL in runs per game last year, but all of their major contributors are young and figure to be better.

Team’s Biggest Weakness: Bullpen. There are a lot of new faces out there in the pen, but every one of them is of the risky variety. Given the fact that their starting staff isn’t exactly stout, a meltdown in the bullpen could be the death knell of their title hopes.

They can win the division if: Their line-up continues to pound away, their pitching rises from bad to adequate and they apply the lessons they learned from last year.

The one player they can’t afford to lose: Ben Sheets. The big man simply has to be healthy this year. If he can take the mound 25 to 30 times the Brewers should be in good shape. If Jeff Suppan spends a lot of time at the top of the rotation there’s trouble ahead.

The one player most likely to break out: Ryan Braun. I mean, seriously, the man stroked 34 dingers and hit .324 in less than 120 games. He doesn’t play in a division that’s exactly brimming with high quality pitching or spacious ballparks. It’s a shame he struggles so much in the field or we’d be talking about a future MVP award.

The one player most likely to tank: Jason Kendall. He somehow managed to post a .309 slugging percentage over 466 at bats last year. Only six players have managed to slug less than .300 in more than 400 at bats since 2000. Jason might be the seventh.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES

Realistic Expectation for 2008: Last place. I suppose if disaster strikes someone else in the division then next-to-last isn’t completely out of the question.

Team’s Biggest Strength: Let’s see; in 2007 they finished 12th in the NL in runs scored, 14th in runs allowed and 13th in defensive efficiency. I guess Matt Capps emerged as a future closer, but unless he improves his peripherals that won’t last long.

Team’s Biggest Weakness: All of the above.

They can win the division if: “Prognosis Negative”

The one player they can’t afford to lose: I don’t know…Ian Snell? He didn’t have as good a record as Gorzelanny last year but his peripheral stats were better.

The one player most likely to break out: Ian Snell. If the offense can somehow scrape together more than 3.9 runs per game for him this year then he might actually post a good record (16-10) and get some much deserved recognition.

The one player most likely to tank: Jason Bay. I love this guy and I know a lot of other people do too. None of that changes the fact that he was a late bloomer who completely lost control of the strike zone last year. Maybe it was the knee, but then again maybe not. If you look at the “comparables” on his baseball-reference.com page you see names like Kevin Mitchell, David Justice and Ryan Klesko; players who didn’t have long peak periods and who declined precipitously afterwards.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

Realistic Expectation for 2008: Third place with a record slightly above .500.

Team’s Biggest Strength: Is not having an identifiable strength considered a strength? No? Well then I’ll go with the fact that Tony LaRussa is the manager most likely to get the most out of a roster of 25 interchangeable parts.

Team’s Biggest Weakness: A pitching staff only Dave Duncan could love. Once you get past Adam Wainwright things get sketchy in a hurry. The Cardinals are going to have to get big contributions from Brandon Looper, Joel Pineiro and (gulp) Matt Clement to meet their potential.

They can win the division if: The staff holds together, Glaus provides support in the line-up for Pujols and at least two of the three outfield spots produce above league average numbers. It would also help if Chris Carpenter can come back healthy by the All-Star break.

The one player they can’t afford to lose: Are you kidding? Pujols, and there is no second choice.

The one player most likely to break out: Adam Wainwright. He moved to the rotation after filling in at closer during the championship run and posted a respectable year. If he can show some improvement he could be a fine number two behind Carpenter.

The one player most likely to tank: Braden Looper. He gutted out a 12-12 record last year in his first year as a starter. Unfortunately, his peripheral stats didn’t support a record that good and the chances of regression to the mean are pretty high.

So far in Spring Training Francisco Liriano has been throwing three pitches: fastball, change-up and slow curve. The big change in his arsenal is that he’s using his curve and not his slider – a result of his elbow surgery at the end of 2006. While the curve puts less stress on the elbow than his slider, it’s not nearly effective, at least not yet. Two years ago, Liriano’s slider graded out at a 70 on a 20-80 scale, where 80 is the best and 50 is the major league average. Because his curve currently grades out at 45, he’ll have to throw more change-ups if he wants to get hitters out via swings and misses. Liriano’s curve is slower than his change-up, which makes the effectiveness of his off-speed stuff less than ideal.

Fantasy advice: Even if Liriano doesn’t improve his curve, he’s still a plus pitcher. If he can improve his curve, watch out. Roll the dice and draft early – perhaps in the 10-12 round range. You have to take chances to win!

Bad news for the AL West! For a few years, scouts and opposing coaches have felt that Angels closer Francisco Rodriguez was an injury waiting to happen because of his poor pitching mechanics. However, by working with pitching guru and Angels coach Mike Butcher, K-Rod has greatly improved his mechanics. Last year he was throwing 10-11 inches across his body; this year it’s 2-3 inches. The result is that K-Rod is putting less stress on his shoulder and is getting better command of his pitches. One of our scouts watched K-Rod and felt he had much better extension and a more fluid delivery.

Fantasy advice: K-Rod was already an elite closer. With these adjustments, K-Rod should be back atop your closer rankings – above Putz (smaller track record) and Papelbon (the Red Sox will continue to use him with the goal of keeping him fresh for the postseason) – like he was after the 2006 season in which he had 47 saves, with a 1.73 ERA and 98 Ks in 73 innings.

Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Matt Morris isn’t pitching well. It’s not yet March 10 and Morris is attempting to put pitch sequences together as if it’s mid season. His velocity is down and his breaking pitches are not sharp. Morris is a .500 pitcher (for a good NL team) and he looks old, even though he’s only 33. He’s not fooling many hitters with his below average stuff.

Fantasy advice: Don’t even think about it. What wins he’ll give you will damage your WHIP, ERA and Ks.

Editor’s Note: Pags is on the front line, watching Spring Training games from a seat right behind home plate, squeezed in between a guy with a radar gun and a guy wearing a Hawaiian shirt, enjoying the sun and some hot dogs. Ahh, the life. Pags will be reporting his observations on DugoutCentral.com, with an eye on which players are looking good and which are looking, well, Punto-ish.

MINNESOTA

Fantasy Alert: Francisco Liriano pitched a simulated game in Fort Myers yesterday. He threw a plus fastball (high 80’s, low 90’s), a tight slider and a very good changeup. Liriano’s “stuff” was better than expected, and the coaching staff was elated. It was an incredibly good sign for the Twins, but they’ll need to see how he recovers today and tomorrow before getting too excited.

On a sad note, the Twins are planning on using a player during game to do analysis for their radio broadcast. Catcher Mike Redmond will be broadcasting games during the fifth inning. Although a broadcast from the dugout is cutting edge and promises to generate good interest, there are many issues with this arrangement from a pure baseball perspective. At the top of the list would be Mike Redmond being paid for eight innings of work while the rest of the team is paid for nine. Contribution to radio should never be intertwined with a player’s commitment to the game itself. Our writer Jason Wolf previously had some strong comments about the Redmond broadcasting.

Unfortunately for the Twins and their fans, Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber, acquired from the Mets in the Johan Santana trade, appear to be struggling. Bad control and, as a result, falling behind too many hitters shows they aren’t ready for the majors. They have to make a lot of adjustments in the short time that is Spring Training for them to have a shot at starting the season on the major league roster.

CINCINNATI

Fantasy Alert: Adam Dunn appears to be staying on the baseball better this spring. He is driving the ball with power to all fields early in camp. I would look for Dunn to get off to a good start this season, and I believe his strikeout total will come down. He’s made a few adjustments at the plate, but I’d like to reconfirm these modifications after seeing him play a few more times.

Fantasy Alert: Ken Griffey Jr. is running very well, he’s playing centerfield and is seeing the ball good off the bat. If his legs stay healthy he will be more productive at bat. Power at the plate is produced largely by the use of a hitter’s legs, and at this time Griffey seems to have healthy legs.

Despite giving up a couple of runs, Aaron Harang pitched well. He was able to maintain a consistent arm slot for most of pitches. His fastball showed good life to it, and he worked at a good pace. Harang used a hard fastball, changeup and a very good curve when runners got in scoring position. A general rule among baseball experts is that “hard throwers” take a bit longer during spring training before they are effective. Soft-tossers usually look good early but fade fast. Harang is definitely not a soft-tosser.

PITTSBURGH

Andrew McCutchen is playing well on offense. He has a ton of talent, but you can tell this kid is very green. Although not seen in the box score, McCutchen made a few mental errors in left field. He is not yet ready to play at the big league level, but if his progress moves as quickly as his legs, he’ll be the everyday center fielder by mid-season.

Zack Duke threw the ball fairly well. His pitching mechanics looked good, and he was able to repeat his delivery. Duke is the kind of pitcher that is committed to pitching inside – a rare, but good, trait for pitchers. Duke’s problem, however, is that he’s not intimidating when he throws inside. In contrast, Andy Pettitte is committed to throwing inside, and hitters appear to back off the plate differently when he throws in.

BOSTON

Tim Wakefield pitched well for Boston. But then again, what the hell do I know about hitting knuckleballers. I think all of them belong in the Hall of Fame.

Fantasy Alert: Clay Buchholz got hit hard. He is a hard thrower and he didn’t have command of his fastball. But that’s similar to almost every pitcher in camp. While the media may be making a big deal about this early struggle, Red Sox fans shouldn’t be alarmed. His pitching mechanics looked okay, he didn’t appear to labor and he was able to finish off his pitches – all good signs.

Craig Hansen (remember, him?) has made a slight adjustment to his delivery, and that allows him to use a higher arm slot. He’s not consistent with it yet, but it’s a good change. With the new arm slot, he’s able to create more depth on his slider, while getting it in the strike zone. Hansen isn’t ready for the majors, but this is a good sign for him.

Looking to bolster their bullpen after trading Salomon Torres and losing Shawn Chacon, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette is reporting that the Pirates have signed 29-year-old Byung-Hyun Kim. Most details are unknown, but it is rumored to be a major-league deal. It is interesting that GM Neal Huntington would commit guaranteed dollars to a question mark like Kim, given his stated belief that most relievers vary in effectiveness from season to season.

Kim was last effective in 2003 and was battered last year primarily as a starter for the Marlins (109 2/3 IP, 17 HR, 62 BB, 102 K, 1.605 WHIP, 79 ERAplus). As mentioned in Dugout Central’s Pirates Spring Training Preview, the Buccos are set with their starting five and therefore will likely use Kim in the bullpen.

So the Pirates picked up a young, former top-notch reliever who has been battered as a starter the last few seasons in hopes of rejuvenation when returned to the bullpen. Assuming a one-year deal for near major-league minimum, I can’t complain.

Amazingly, for a team that has won 67, 67, and 68 games over the last three years, the Pirates will enter spring training with few roster changes or position battles. Seven of the starting eight positions appear to be set, all five starting pitchers have been declared, and only the bullpen has any degree of uncertainty. Let’s look at each area individually.

Starting Eight

Catcher – Ronny Paulino (2007 .263 AVG/.314 OBP/.389 SLG/83 OPSplus; Career .287/.338/.392/90)

1st Base – Adam LaRoche (.272/.345/.458/108; .273/.339/.490/112)

2nd Base – Freddy Sanchez (.304/.343/.442/103; .310/.349/.433/103)

3rd Base – Jose Bautista (.254/.339/.414/96; .240/.329/.395/88)

Shortstop – Jack Wilson (.296/.350/.440/105; .269/.312/.378/79)

Left Field – Jason Bay (.247/.327/.418/93; .281/.375/.515/130)

Right Field – Xavier Nady (.278/.330/.476/107; .272/.327/.441/102)

Centerfield – Nate McLouth (.258/.351/.459/110; .249/.322/.429/94)

– or –

Nyer Morgan (.299/.359/.430/105; .299/.359/.430/105)

The CF battle between McLouth and Morgan should be interesting to watch. Last year in his 3rd season at age 25, McLouth finally overcame the dreaded “4th outfielder” label and got a chance to play regularly in the second half, getting 382 plate appearances (PA). He showed a discriminating eye at the plate (39 BB), intelligence on the base paths (22 SB, 1 CS), and a little pop in his bat (13 HR). By all accounts he is fundamentally sound in the outfield, but his range appears to be slightly below average, a real problem in PNC Park’s spacious centerfield. Follow this link (http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/07364/845437-63.stm) for an interesting statistical look at McLouth’s very successful 2007 campaign.

Nyer Morgan was a September call-up, who surprisingly is one year older than McLouth, due to a minor league hockey career before switching to baseball. He hit well in 28 games and 118 PA, as the numbers above show. His defense was nothing short of spectacular. His zone rating was .953 to McLouth’s .869, and his range factor was +0.73 compared to the league average. And finally, for those who judge defense with their eyes, check out these amazing Morgan catches:

Sept 14th vs. Houston, “Morgan’s catch at wall”: http://pittsburgh.pirates.mlb.com/multimedia/tp_archive.jsp?c_id=pit  

Sept 9th vs. Chicago, “Morgan’s leaping grab”: http://pittsburgh.pirates.mlb.com/multimedia/tp_archive.jsp?c_id=pit  

Morgan has shown the ability to get on-base throughout his minor league career (.360), but he was consistently older than the rest of the league due to his late baseball start. It remains to be seen if he can be successful at the major league level for an extended period of time.

Whether McLouth or Morgan is the centerfielder, a question mark will remain until one of them proves himself over an entire season. Based on the existing evidence, I would lean towards McLouth being the starter at the beginning of the season, with Morgan getting spot starts.

Starting Eight Notes

• At just 29 years old, look for Jason Bay to revert closer to his career line than his dismal 2007 season. If he does, he will likely be traded.
• Look for Jack Wilson to regress back to his career line.
• In 2007, Adam LaRoche, Xavier Nady, and Freddy Sanchez all performed about where you would expect them to, based on career numbers; don’t look for drastic improvement from them.
• How many spring training ABs can LaRoche get in hopes of avoiding another SLOWWWWW April and May? Will it even matter?
• Catcher Ronny Paulino was a huge disappointment in 2007, showing blatant apathy, playing terrible defense, and trying to pull home runs. Perhaps new manager John Russell (a former catcher) will demand more than the laid-back Jim Tracy. Look for Russell to focus on Paulino’s defense heavily during the spring.
• Ryan Doumit (.274/.341/.472/110, .252/.330/.426/96) will continue to not have a starting position, even though is he a demonstrably better hitter than Paulino. Can’t the pitching game be called from the bench?

Bench

Gone from the Pirates reasonably productive and inexpensive 2007 bench are Josh Phelps, Matt Kata and Cesar Izturis. Vying to replace them are veterans Doug Mientkiewicz (see Dugout Central’s analysis here), Ray Olmedo (career .228/.276/.293/51), Chris Gomez (career .261/.326/.361/82), and Luis Rivas (career .262/.307/.385/80, see Dugout Central’s analysis here). Josh Wilson (career .233/.286/.329/64) is also in the mix, though he will likely start the season at AAA.

Olmedo, Wilson, and Gomez are on the 40-man roster, whereas Mientkiewicz and Rivas are low-risk, non-roster invitees. Gomez looks best on paper for the role of utility infielder (see table below), with Mientkiewicz as the primary left-handed pinch-hitter. The table below shows the career Range Factor Delta (RFD), that is Range Factor minus the league average Range Factor, and the career Zone Rating for each player at each infield position.

The reserve outfielders will come from whoever loses the CF competition and Steve Pearce or Kevin Thompson. It sounds as if the Chris Duffy soap opera will be starting at AAA this year, though he will likely be in the major league camp for most of spring training. Ryan Doumit should get plenty of outfield and catcher repetitions during the spring.

Starting Rotation

The starting five has been declared by John Russell:

Ian Snell – age 26, throws R

• 2007: 9-12 W-L, 208 IP, 68 BB, 177 K, 1.332 WHIP, 116 ERAplus
• Career: 24-26 W-L, 448 IP, 175 BB, 389 K, 1.426 WHIP, 100 ERAplus

Tom Gorzelanny – age 25, throws L

• 2007: 14-10 W-L, 201 2/3 IP, 68 BB, 135 K, 1.398 WHIP, 112 ERAplus
• Career: 16-16 -L, 269 1/3 IP, 102 BB, 178 K, 1.396 WHIP, 108 ERAplus

Paul Maholm – age 26, throws L

• 2007: 10-15 W-L, 177 2/3 IP, 49 BB, 105 K, 1.424 WHIP, 87 ERAplus
• Career: 21-26 W-L, 395 IP, 147 BB, 248 K, 1.478 WHIP, 95 ERAplus

Matt Morris – age 33, throws R

• 2007 combined: 10-11 W-L, 198 2/3 IP, 61 BB, 102 K, 1.515 WHIP, 90 ERAplus
• Career: 121-88 W-L, 1783 2/3 IP, 502 BB, 1205 K, 1.305 WHIP, 109 ERAplus

Zach Duke – age 25, throws L

• 2007: 3-8 W-L, 107 1/3 IP, 25 BB, 41 K, 1.733 WHIP, 79 ERAplus
• Career: 21-25 W-L, 407 1/3 IP, 116 BB, 216 K, 1.500 WHIP, 105 ERAplus

In Gorzelanny’s first and Snell’s second year as full-time starters in 2007, both young hurlers established themselves as consistent top-of-the-rotation pitchers. During spring training, look for both pitchers to simply “get in their work”. Don’t worry if they have bad numbers during the spring schedule; recall that Gorzelanny was atrocious during spring training 2007.

Like Snell and Gorzo, former #1 pick Paul Maholm will be stretching out his arm in Bradenton and not focused on results. Maholm has been frustratingly erratic during his two-year career, and in 2008 needs to show if he is going to be a solution or a problem.

I always respected Matt Morris when he was a Cardinal, helping his team beat up on the hapless Buccos. He was a good pitcher, with plenty of strikeouts, few walks – everything you could ask for. But apparently, Dave Littlefield did not get the memo that time had not stopped in 2002, and in fact, it had kept rolling and the Matt Morris of 2007 was not a good pitcher anymore. Oh well, it only cost the Pirates Rajai Davis and about fifteen freaking million dollars! Look for Morris to “get in his innings” during spring training, while GM Neal Huntington feverishly hopes some other foolish team hires Cam Bonifay or Dave Littlefield as their GM so he can dump Morris and his salary on them.

I was surprised to hear that Zach Duke was given a spot in the rotation, given that he is coming off of serious arm trouble last year and has not pitched well since his rookie campaign of 2005. Of all the starters, I would suspect he needs to at least have a nominally effective spring showing to secure his rotation spot when the team moves north.

Rotation Long Shots: John Van Benschoten, Bryan Bullington, Ty Taubenheim, Sean Burnett

Bullpen

The bullpen has returning closer Matt Capps (79 IP, 16 BB, 64K, 1.013 WHIP, 191 ERAplus), and lefties Damaso Marte (45 1/3 IP, 18 BB, 51K, 1.103 WHIP, 183 ERAplus) and John Grabow (51 2/3 IP, 19 BB, 42K, 1.452 WHIP, 96 ERAplus). Shawn Chacon (free agent), Salomon Torres (traded to Milwaukee), and Tony Armas (free agent) are all gone. Armas is certainly no loss and Torres performed poorly in 2007, though he seemed like a reasonable bet to rebound. Chacon was effective last year as a swing man and in long relief, and the Pirates are reportedly still in the running for his services (http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08024/851722-63.stm).

Assuming a 12-man pitching staff again, that leaves four spots open for a cluster of youngsters, AAAA types, scrap heap retreads, and the rotation long-shots mentioned above. GM Huntington believes that typical middle relievers tend to vary in effectiveness from season to season; therefore it does not make sense to overpay for a “proven veteran”. The argument appears to have some validity on the surface, and we’ll see how it pans out this year. Perhaps Elmer Dessens or Masumi Kuwata or Hector Carrasco or Jaret Wright will pitch like it’s 1997 again. Maybe youngsters Jonah Bayliss and Jimmy Barthmaier will be able to find the strike zone again. Who knows how it will turn out, but it should be interesting to watch how the spring training innings are divvied up among the relievers and who rises to the top.

Opening Day Roster Prediction

Catchers (2): Ronny Paulino, Ryan Doumit

Infielders (6): Adam LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez, Jack Wilson, Jose Bautista, Doug Mientkiewicz, Chris Gomez

Outfielders (5): Jason Bay, Nate McLouth, Xavier Nady, Nyer Morgan, Steve Pearce

Pitchers (12): Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelanny, Paul Maholm, Matt Morris, Zach Duke, Matt Capps, Damaso Marte, John Grabow, Franquelis Osoria, Elmer Dessens, Jonah Bayliss, John Van Benschoten

Looking to bolster their bench after releasing veterans Josh Phelps and Matt Kata, the Pirates signed 34 year-old veteran first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training.

Mientkiewicz has shown a reasonable ability to get on-base throughout his career (.358 OBP), but he’s never had enough power to warrant playing everyday. In an injury-marred season with the Yankees last year, he batted .277/.349/.440 in just 72 games, good for an OPS+ of 107. Mientkiewicz only plays first base, and his excellent defensive reputation appears well deserved, with a career .996 fielding percentage, +0.77 range factor and 2001 Gold Glove award.

What strikes me as odd is that in November the Pirates released a younger, more powerful version of Mientkiewicz in Josh Phelps. Phelps was a strong presence on the Pirates bench last year in 77 at bats, producing .351/.463/.649, OPS+ 187, and his career line of .273/.344/.476 and OPS+ of 112 is optimal for a reserve player. While Phelps will not remind you of Keith Hernandez when it comes to defensive wizardry, he compensates for poor range with versatility as a 3rd catcher.

Given that Phelps was already gone, signing Mientkiewicz to a minor league deal is a low risk move that potentially fills a gaping hole on the bench. But you have to ask, “Why was Phelps gone in the first place?”

Editor’s Note: This concludes Pete’s four part search for the greatest Pirates eam ever. Check out Part I, Part II and Part III.

So where do we stand in our analysis of the question, “Which was the Greatest Pittsburgh Pirates Team Ever?” Based on our statistical analysis of WL%, offensive, pitching, and defensive league dominance in Part One, the leader clearly appears to be the 1902 team. Table 5 below summarizes the statistical pros and cons for each team and ranks them accordingly.

Rank	Year	Pros	Cons
1)	1902	Best WL% of any Pirates teamAbsolute offensive dominance; #1 in all categoriesHighest pitching dominance of any Pirates team	None
2)	1909	#2 WL% of any Pirates teamMost single season wins ever by a Pirates teamComplete offensive dominance; #1 in all categoriesSolid pitching dominance; excellent ERA+, #1 in fewest BB	Poor SO rank (#5)
3)	1960	Excellent offensive dominance; #1 in 3 of 5 categoriesExcellent pitching dominance; #1 in 3 of 5 categoriesLow HR allowed (#1) more important than 1901-1909 periodBest combined offensive and pitching dominance other than 1902	Lower WL%Possibly below average defensively?
4)	1901	Excellent WL%Very good offensive dominance; #1 in 2 of 5 categoriesExcellent pitching dominance; #1 in 3 of 5 categoriesBest ERA+ of any Pirates team	Poor SO rank (#6)
5)	1925	Complete offensive dominance; #1 in all categoriesReasonable pitching dominance	Did not lead in any pitching category
6)	1903	Excellent WL%Excellent offensive dominance; #1 in 3 of 5 categoriesAverage pitching dominance; #1 in 1 of 5 categories	#1 HR less relevantPoor BB rank (#5)
7)	1927	Very good offensive dominance; #1 in 2 of 5 categories, #2 in 3 of 5 categoriesAverage pitching dominancePossibly best defensive Pirates team?	Lowest WL%Did not lead in any pitching category
	1971	Excellent offensive dominance; #1 in 3 of 5 categories, #2 in 2 of 5 categoriesAverage pitching dominance12 NL teams	Low WL%Did not lead in any pitching categoryPoor SO rank (#11)Possibly below average defensively?
9)	1979	Very good offensive dominance; #1 in 2 of 5 categories, #2 in 2 of 5 categoriesAverage pitching dominance; good ERA+12 NL teams	Low WL%Poor BB rank (#6)Poor HR rank (#7)Worst offensive rank (OBP #5) of any team under consideration

Table 5: Statistical Team Rankings

Editor’s Note: This is the third in a four-part series in which Peter Fritsch determines the greatest Pirates team ever. Check out Part I and Part II.

1960 Pirates

The Pirates managed five 2nd place finishes between 1927 and 1959, before finally winning the NL pennant in 1960. The dark years of 1946-1957 were particularly harsh, with just one winning season and 10 last place or next-to-last-place finishes. The Pirates of 1960 won the NL by a solid seven games over 2nd place Milwaukee (HOFers Hank Aaron, Eddie Mathews, and Warren Spahn), leading the league for most of the season. Since 1955, the Braves had managed three 2nd place finishes, in addition to winning the NL pennant in 1958 and the WS in 1957.

In an era dominated by pitching, the Pirates had a potent offense, led by MVP shortstop Dick Groat (.325/.371/.394), HOFer Roberto Clemente (.314/.357/.458), outfielder Bob Skinner (.273/.340/.431), 3rd baseman Don Hoak (.282/.366/.445), 1st baseman Dick Stuart (.260/.317/.479), and platoon catcher Smoky Burgess (.294/.356/.412). HOFer and arguably the best defensive 2nd baseman ever, Bill Mazeroski enjoyed one of his better offensive seasons at .273/.320/.392. He combined with Groat to turn 127 double plays and had a superior range factor of 5.71, compared to the league average for 2nd baseman of 4.48.

The 1960 Pirates also had a strong pitching staff, anchored by Cy Young Award winner Vernon Law (20-9, 122, SO:BB ratio 3:1), long-time Pirates veteran Bob Friend (18-12, 125), and unlucky Harvey Haddix (11-10, 95). Wilmer Mizell (13-5, 121) pitched well as a starter, ace-reliever Roy Face (10-8, 130, 24 saves) pitched in 68 games, and flash-in-the-pan Fred Green (8-4, 117) had his best year in relief.

The Pirates, like déjà-vu all over again, found a vaunted Yankees juggernaut awaiting them in the World Series. Since 1955, the Yankees had won four AL pennants and two WS titles, and would win two more WS titles in 1961 and 1962 and two more AL pennants in 1963 and 1964. The 1960 Yankees boasted:

• HOF CF Mickey Mantle: .275/.399/.558, HR 40, RBI 94, MVP runner-up
• MVP RF Roger Maris: .283/.371/.581, HR 39, RBI 112
• All-star 1st baseman Bill Skowron: .309/.353/.528, HR 26, RBI 91
• HOF catcher/outfielder Yogi Berra: .276/.347/.446
• HOF pitcher Whitey Ford: 12-9, 116
• HOF manager Casey Stengel: .623 career WL% with the Yankees, 7 WS titles

Indeed, the Yankees crushed the Pirates in Game 2 (16-3), Game 3 (10-0), and Game 6 (12-0), outscoring the Pirates 55-27 overall. But the Pirates won Game 1 by a close 6-4 score behind Vern Law’s strong start (7 IP, 2 ER), Roy Face’s save, and Bill Mazeroski’s three double-plays and two-run HR in the 4th. Game 4 was even closer, with the Pirates edging a 3-2 victory thanks to more strong pitching by Vern Law (6 1/3 IP, 2 ER) and Roy Face (2 2/3 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, Save). Game 5 followed the same formula, as Harvey Haddix kept the Yankee offense in check with 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER and 6 K and Roy Face saved another, going 2 2/3 IP with only 1 BB.

The famous Game 7 was a roller-coaster of a game with the Pirates taking a 4-0 lead after two innings, only to have the Yankees roar back to lead 5-4 after the top of the 6th, and increase that lead to 7-4 after the top of the 8th. The Pirates exploded for five runs in the bottom of the 8th, only to allow the Yankees to tie the game in the top of the 9th at 9-9. As we are all aware, Bill Mazeroski was up first in the bottom of the ninth and proceeded to hit the most famous home run ever over the left field wall at Forbes Field. Thus, the Pirates won their first World Series since 1925, defeating the heavily favored Yankees, and perhaps salvaging some satisfaction for their battered 1927 teammates who had been so soundly defeated by the Yankees 33 years earlier.

The 1960 Pirates posted an excellent starting lineup, had a great bench, three dominant starting pitchers, and two excellent relievers. Mazeroski (eight Gold Gloves) and Clemente (12 Gold Gloves) were game changing defensive players, and Bill Virdon’s reputation as a great defensive centerfielder appears well deserved, based on his 1962 Gold Glove and career Range Factor compared to the league average. A lack of team speed was likely their only deficiency.

1971 Pirates

The Pirates of 1971 were led by aging HOFer Roberto Clemente (.341/.370/.502), who, after winning four batting titles and one MVP in the 1960’s, was still going strong at 36. Fellow HOFer Willie Stargell, still playing in the outfield, enjoyed perhaps his best season at .295/.398/.628 and clubbed 48 home runs. First baseman Bob Robertson (.271/.356/.484), catcher Manny Sanguillen (.319/.345/.426), 3rd baseman Richie Hebner (.271/.326/.487), and right fielder Al Oliver (.282/.317/.446) provided strong offense. HOFer Bill Mazeroski, now in a reserve role, played just 46 games at 2nd base.

Steve Blass was the pitching ace, posting a 15-8 record with ERA+ 122. Free-spirit and acid dropping Dock Ellis had a strong year at 19-9, ERA+ 114 and a SO:BB ratio of over 2:1. In relief, closer Dave Giusti (5-6, 118, 30 saves), Mudcat Grant (5-3, 96) and Nellie Briles (8-4, 114) were the “go-to” guys.

The Pirates won the NL East division by seven games over the St. Louis Cardinals, capturing 1st place in mid-June and never looking back. They defeated the NL West champion San Francisco Giants (with HOFers Willie Mays, Willie McCovey, Gaylord Perry and Juan Marichal) in the National League Championship Series (NLCS) 3-games-to-1, with Dave Cash, Clemente, Hebner, and Robertson having strong showings. Stargell went 0 for 14 and Blass was rocked for nine ER in seven innings.

The Pirates would meet the reigning WS champion Baltimore Orioles in the 1971 World Series. With HOF manager Earl Weaver at the helm since midway through the 1968 season, the Orioles had known nothing but success; winning 109 games and the AL pennant in 1969, 108 games and the WS in 1970, and 101 games and the AL pennant in 1971. The O’s had easily won the AL East by 12 games, then swept the Oakland Athletics in the American League Championship Series (ALCS) 3 games to 0. The 1971 Orioles boasted four 20-game winners in HOFer Jim Palmer (20-9, 125), All-Star Mike Cuellar (20-9, 109), Pat Dobson (20-8, 116), and Dave McNally (21-5, 116).

HOFer Frank Robinson (.281/.384/.510), still producing at age 35, led the offense, while 3rd base fielding wizard and HOFer Brooks Robinson hit .272/.341/.413. Fan favorite 1st baseman Boog Powell (.256/.379/.459), 2nd baseman Davey Johnson (.282/.351/.443) and outfielders Merv Rettenmund (.318/.422/.448) and Don Buford (.290/.413/.477) provided potent offense that led the AL in runs scored, BA, OBP and was 2nd in SLG.

The O’s took a 2 games to 0 lead before Steve Blass pitched a complete game, one run, eight K gem in Game 3 to get the Pirates first win. Bob Robertson provided all of the offense with a three-run HR in the 7th.

The Buccos out-hit the O’s 14-4 in Game 4, but only managed a narrow 4-3 victory by going 4-15 with runners in scoring position. Relieving Luke Walker, who gave up three runs in just 2/3 of an inning, Bruce Kison got the win and Giusti the save.

Game 5, a 4-0 Pirates victory, pitted spot-starter/reliever Nellie Briles against 20-game winner Dave McNally – a mismatch on paper. But Briles pitched a complete game shutout, allowing just four base-runners, while McNally was knocked out after just four innings. Game 6 went into extra innings with the Orioles winning 3-2 in the 10th.

Game 7 was a pitching duel with NLCS goat and Game 3 hero Steve Blass against 20-game winner Mike Cuellar. The Pirates eked out a 2-1 victory courtesy of a Clemente solo HR, a Jose Pagan RBI double, and a complete game, one run, four hit gem from Blass. Roberto Clemente was the WS MVP, batting an impressive .414/.452/.759.

A mix of veterans and youngsters with three HOFers, the 1971 Pirates were strong offensively at every position other than shortstop. Their bench was just average, as was the relief pitching, but the starting pitching excelled.

1979 Pirates

The 1979 Buccos were a fam-i-lee of fun-loving sluggers, led by 39 year-old HOFer Willie “Pops” Stargell, who was nearing the end of his fabulous career. Pops won his only MVP in 1979 on the way to hitting .295/.382/.567. 1978 MVP and two-time batting champ (1977, 1978) Dave Parker had another great year at .310/.380/.526. Outfielder Bill Robinson slugged .504 and speedy centerfielder Omar Moreno stole 77 bases. A shrewd mid-season trade brought two-time batting champ (1975, 1976) Bill Madlock to play 3rd base (Madlock would win two more batting titles in 1981 and 1983). Madlock (.328/.390/.469) provided the key boost to the lineup that pushed the Pirates to the top of the NL East. Phil Garner, who switched from 3rd base to 2nd base when Madlock was acquired, had his best year at .293/.359/.441.

The starting rotation was strong with tall lefty John Candelaria (14-9, 122), Bruce Kison (13-7, 123), Bert Blyleven (12-5, 109) and Don Robinson (8-8, 102). Veterans Jim Rooker (4-7, 85) and Jim Bibby (12-4, 140) split time in the #5 slot of the rotation, each getting 17 starts during the regular season. Rubber armed reliever Kent Tekulve (10-8, 143, 31 saves), who pitched in a franchise record 94 games (since equaled by Solomon Torres in 2006), combined with Enrique Romo (10-5, 131) and Grant Jackson (8-5, 133) to provide a very strong bullpen.

The Buccos started out poorly at 9-14, and were still just 28-28 in mid June. The Pirates were 36-33 and tied for fourth place on June 28th, the day of the Bill Madlock trade. They finally captured first place from the Montreal Expos (HOFer Gary Carter, Larry Parrish, Andre Dawson, Bill Lee) one month later, and then swapped the lead back and forth several times. By the end of August, the Pirates led by 3.0 games, but throughout September the lead repeatedly changed hands, until the final day of the season left the Pirates with a 1.0 game lead. That day, the Pirates won and the Expos lost, giving a hard-fought NL East division title to Pittsburgh.

The Pirates had won the NL East division in 1972, 1974 and 1975 and finished 2nd in 1976, 1977 and 1978, only to lose the NLCS to the great “Big Red Machine” in 1972 and 1975. Finally shaking the Reds’ monkey off of their collective back, the 1979 team swept the NLCS from the Reds in three games with Stargell named the NLCS MVP.

The 1979 Fall Classic found the Pirates once again facing Earl Weaver’s Baltimore Orioles, who had dispatched the California Angels (HOFer Rod Carew, Bobby Grich, Don Baylor, HOFer Nolan Ryan) 3 games to 1 in the ALCS. The O’s had not been below .500 since 1967 and had won one WS, two AL pennants, and two AL East division titles since 1968. In 1979 they won 102 games behind an adequate offense and a dominant pitching staff. Much of their offensive production came from 1977 Rookie of the Year and future HOFer Eddie Murray (.295/.369/.475), slugger Ken Singleton (.295/.405/.533), and outfielder Gary Roenicke (.261/.378/.508).

The pitching staff was led by 1979 Cy Young award winner Mike Flanagan (23-9, 130), who posted the best year of his career. HOFer Jim Palmer, still only 33 years old, went 10-6 with an ERA+ 122 in just 23 regular season games. Dennis Martinez (15-16, 110), 1980 Cy Young winner Steve Stone (11-7, 106), and Scott McGregor (13-6, 120) rounded out the impressive rotation. The bullpen was even more dominant, with Don Stanhouse (7-3, 141, 21 saves), Tippy Martinez (10-3, 139), Tim Stoddard (3-1, 235), and Sammy Stewart (8-5, 114) all enjoying stellar seasons.

The World Series was another close competition, going a full seven games. They split the first two games in Baltimore, but then the O’s won the first two games in Pittsburgh. Facing elimination in Game 5, Jim Rooker and Bert Blyleven combined to allow just one run while the Pirates offense pounded out seven runs for the victory. Game 6 went back to Baltimore where Candelaria and Tekulve pitched a combined shutout to beat Jim Palmer. Deciding Game 7 found the Buccos down after the 3rd inning, but a Willie Stargell two-run HR and the combined efforts of Bibby, Robinson, Jackson, and Tekulve resulted in the Pirates fifth World Series title. Willie Stargell had a monster series, batting .400/.375/.833 and winning the WS MVP.

The 1979 Pirates had the fewest HOFers (just Willie Stargell) of any team under consideration, though they had several all-stars. Dave Parker was certainly a great player in that era, and perhaps would have ended up in the HOF were it not for alleged drug use in the early 1980’s. Until the Madlock trade, the offensive production from second base was abysmal and shortstop only a little better. But the starting rotation was good and the bullpen was deep and dominant, and unconventional manager Chuck Tanner seemed to make all the right moves at just the right time. Of all the Pirates teams under consideration, the 1979 team seemed to be “one of destiny”.

In Part Four on Friday: Final Rankings, we will review our statistical and subjective analysis and answer the question, “Which was the greatest Pirates team ever?”

Statistical Sources:

www.baseballrace.com

www.baseball-reference.com

www.mlb.com

Editor’s Note: This is the second in a four-part series in which Peter Fritsch determines the greatest Pirates team ever. Check out Part I.

If we stopped at a purely statistical analysis to determine “Which was the Greatest Pittsburgh Pirates Team Ever?” we would be missing out on half of the fun! Each team is much more than a collection of numbers and percentages; they are made of up of players and coaches and dramatic 9th inning victories and heart-breaking defeats and the grind of a 6-month season.

First, we must consider the players and managers that comprised these teams. Was the team studded with Hall of Famers and All-Stars or just a bunch of guys that had career years? Second, who was the competition during the regular and post season? Was it the MLB equivalent of the Bad News Bears, or a mediocre/fluke team? Finally, we’ll take a brief look at each WS, just because it’s fun. Let us investigate these questions and determine if they alter our rankings.

1901 Pirates

The 1901 Pirates were led by Hall of Fame (HOF) player/manager Fred Clarke (BA .324/OBP .395/SLG .461); HOFer Honus Wagner (.353/.417/.494) who split time between SS, 3B, and the OF; outfielder Ginger Beaumont (.332/.382/.418); and second baseman Claude Ritchey (.296/.358/.354). Pitchers Deacon Phillippe (W-L 22-12, ERA+ 147), Jesse Tannehill (18-10, 150), HOFer Jack Chesbro (21-10, 137) and Sam Leever (14-5, 114) provided solid pitching throughout the season. HOFer Rube Waddell pitched a few innings for the Pirates in 1901 early in his career.

With the exceptions of catcher Chief Zimmer at age 40 and platoon shortstop Bones Ely at age 38, this was a young team in its prime. Clarke, Wagner, Beaumont, and Ritchey were all between the ages of 24 and 28, but with several seasons of experience under their belts. The pitchers were also young veterans ranging from 26 to 29. This was a solid team up and down the lineup with few weaknesses and three HOFers. They won the NL pennant by 7.5 games over a Philadelphia Phillies team boasting HOFers “Big Ed” Delahanty (.354/.427/.528) and Elmer Flick (.333/.399/.500), with consistent Roy Thomas (.309/.437/.334).

Unfortunately, the World Series had not yet been conceived of by Pirates HOF owner Barney Dreyfuss, so the 1901 Pirates did not have the opportunity to challenge the American League (AL) champion Chicago White Sox, led by HOF pitcher Clark Griffith (24-7, 130) and outfielders Dummy Hoy (.294/.407/.400) and Fielder Jones (.311/.412/.365).

1902 Pirates

The 1902 Pirates were loaded with talent everywhere you looked. All but 65 innings were pitched by HOFer Jack Chesbro (28-6, 127), Deacon Phillippe (20-9, 134), Sam Leever (15-7, 115), Jesse Tannehill (20-6, 141), or Ed Doheny (16-4, 109). Even Honus Wagner pitched 5 1/3 innings and only gave up two unearned runs to go with five strikeouts!

Catching duties were shared by a rejuvenated 41-year old Chief Zimmer (.268/.338/.324), Jack O’Connor (.294/.306/.341) and light hitting Harry Smith (.189/.211/.222). At 1st base Kitty Bransfield chipped in offensively with .305/.336/.395. With Claude Ritchey (.277/.370/.328) at 2nd base, young Tommy Leach (.278/.341/.426) at 3rd, and Wid Conroy filling in at shortstop when Honus Wagner was in the outfield, the infield was solid if not spectacular.

The strength of the 1902 Pirates was the outfield, especially when considering the performance of the bench players in addition to the starters. HOFer Honus Wagner had his typical year at .330/.394/.463. HOF player/manager Fred Clarke (.316/.401/.449) had a splendid OPS+ of 157, Ginger Beaumont (.357/.404/.418) was spectacular, and reserves Lefty Davis (.280/.377/.336) and Jimmy Burke (.296/.359/.374) had solid seasons off the bench. Even pitcher Jesse Tannehill played 16 games in the outfield and chipped in with an overall .291/.348/.365.

The Pirates won the NL by a staggering 27.5 games over distant 2nd place finisher Brooklyn. They boasted the batting and hits champ (Beaumont); the slugging, OPS, OPS+, RBIs, doubles, and stolen base (SB) champ (Wagner); and the HR champ (Leach). Jack Chesbro led the league in wins and shutouts; four of the top five in pitchers WL% were Pirates, as were the top three hurlers in SO:BB ratio. It was a complete team with experienced veterans in their prime. Alas, this mighty Pirates team would have to wait one more year until innovative Barney Dreyfuss challenged the upstart AL champion to the ultimate contest – the first ever World Series.

1903 Pirates

The 1903 Pirates perhaps suffered their largest defeat even before the season started, when ace pitchers HOFer Jack Chesbro and Jesse Tannehill “jumped” to the newly formed New York Highlanders of the AL – the predecessors of the Yankees [Staff, 1913]. Joining their departure to the Big Apple was starting shortstop Wid Conroy.

The 1903 Pirates were again led offensively by HOF player/manager Fred Clarke (.351/.414/.532) who posted his career best OPS+ at 165, and now full-time shortstop Honus Wagner (.355/.414/.518). Outfielder Ginger Beaumont provided another strong season at .341/.390/.444, but replacing Wagner in the outfield was Jimmy Sebring (OPS+ 99) and top reserve Otto Krueger (OPS+ 88), who struggled to match the bench output of the previous season.

Claude Ritchey (.287/.360/.381) at 2nd base and Tommy Leach at 3rd base (.298/.352/.438) provided stability in the infield, but 1st baseman Kitty Bransfield (OPS+ 87) regressed to an anemic .265/.314/.350.

Veterans Sam Leever (25-7, 157), Deacon Phillippe (25-9, 133), and Ed Doheny (16-8, 101) continued to pitch well, but the losses of Chesbro and Tannehill were severe. Aging veteran Brickyard Kennedy and rookies Kaiser Wilhelm, Cy Falkenberg and Bucky Veil could not sufficiently replace the league jumpers.

The Pirates beat HOF manager John McGraw’s New York Giants (HOFers Roger Bresnahan, Christy Mathewson and Joe McGinnity) by 6.5 games for the NL pennant. The first ever World Series was held after the 1903 season and pitted the NL champion Pirates against the upstart AL champion Boston Americans, as the Red Sox were then known. The Boston team boasted HOFer and career wins leader Cy Young (28-9, 145) and HOFer player/manager Jimmy Collins (.296/.329/.448). In a best of nine series, Deacon Phillippe pitched five complete games for the Pirates beating Young in the first game. Phillippe only walked three and struck out 22 in 44 innings of work with a 3-2 record. Wagner struggled in the WS, batting just .222/.323/.259, while Clarke managed just .265/.286/.382 and Beaumont .265/.306/.324. In the end, Boston won in eight games and the Pirates were left to wonder what might have been if not for the defections of Jack Chesbro and Jesse Tannehill. They would have to wait until 1909 to find out.

1909 Pirates

The 1909 Pirates were led by aging stars Fred Clarke (age 36) and Honus Wagner (age 35). If baseball is a young man’s game, somebody forgot to tell these HOFers, as they both produced spectacular offensive seasons. Wagner, after the best season of his career in 1908 (.354/.415/.542, OPS+ 205), followed up with a 1909 season nearly as good by hitting .339/.420/.480, OPS+ 176. Player/manager Clarke, playing in the most games of his career at 152, managed .287/.384/.373, OPS+ 130.

Tommy Leach (.261/.337/.368) had by now moved from 3rd base to the outfield and sophomore Chief Wilson contributed a solid performance at .272/.303/.374. Catcher George Gibson and 2nd baseman Dots Miller provided offensive help with OPS+ of 108 and 120 respectively.

The pitching was strong with starters Vic Willis (22-11, 115), Howie Camnitz (25-6, 158), Lefty Leifield (19-8, 108), and Nick Maddox (13-8, 116) all having above average years. Thirty-seven year-old veterans Deacon Phillippe (8-3, 110) and Sam Leever (8-1, 91) even chipped in, pitching in 22 and 19 games respectively. Young hurler Babe Adams, who had cups of coffee with the St. Louis Cardinals in 1906 and the Pirates in 1907, turned in his best season with a 12-3 record and 231 ERA+.

The Pirates started off the season slowly, but maintained a comfortable 6-10 game lead over the reigning two-time WS champion Cubs (104-49) for most of the season, before finally winning the NL by 6.5 games. The World Series found the Pirates up against HOFer Ty Cobb’s (.377/.431/.517) Detroit Tigers. The Tigers had won three straight AL pennants, and in addition to Cobb boasted HOFer Sam Crawford (.314/.366/.452) and eagle-eyed shortstop Donie Bush (.273/.380/.314) who led the league in walks five times during his career, including 1909. The series was marketed to the public as pitting the best NL player (Wagner) against the best AL player (Cobb), and lived up to its billing with the Pirates taking the closely contested series 4-3. Young Babe Adams capped his stellar rookie season during the WS, pitching three complete games and a shutout in the deciding Game 7. Wagner, erasing the memories of his poor performance in the 1903 WS, hit .333/.467/.500.

The 1909 season was truly one of the greatest in the Pirates franchise history. During the long regular season, they managed to fend off a formidable Cubs dynasty of Tinker-to-Evers-to-Chance fame (all HOFers) and legendary HOF pitcher Mordecai “Three-Finger” Brown (27-9, 193). The AL champion Tigers (98-54), unlucky enough to face the Cubs in the previous two WS, enjoyed one of their best seasons ever and were led by perhaps the greatest player (Cobb) in MLB history (however, that is an argument for another time). It would be some time before the Pirates again competed for championships.

1925 Pirates

The dead-ball era was over, and Babe Ruth was busy changing how the game was played. Honus Wagner had ended his long HOF career after the 1917 season and Fred Clarke after 1915 (playing in just 12 games all of 1913, 1914, and 1915). The Pirates had little success after the 1909 season; only managing 2nd place finishes in 1912 and 1921. HOFer Max Carey had debuted with the Pirates in 1910, and suffered through many losing seasons, before enjoying his best season at the age of 35 in 1925 (.343/.418/.491). Carey was blazingly fast, leading the NL in SB ten times during his career, and he had a reputation as a defensive wizard in centerfield.

Carey had been joined by HOF 3rd baseman Pie Traynor full-time in 1922, and Traynor provided good production in 1925 at .320/.377/.464. 1922 was also the debut for a new manager, Bill McKechnie. The HOF manager McKechnie ended up winning four NL pennants and two WS titles during his long 25-year career, posting a composite WL% of .524. HOF outfielder Kiki Cuyler had become a starter in 1924, posting the best offensive production of his career in 1925 at .357/.423/.598 and OPS+ 151. In addition to the HOF core, the lineup was potent at every other position; outfielder Clyde Barnhart (.325/.391/.447), shortstop Glenn Wright (.308/.341/.480), 1st baseman George Grantham (.326/.413/.493), catcher Earl Smith (.313/.374/.471) and 2nd baseman Eddie Moore (.298/.383/.413) all posted solid seasons.

The pitching staff was led by Lee Meadows (19-10, 122) and Vic Aldridge (15-7, 123) with 1909 WS hero Babe Adams pitching long relief in 33 games. Journeyman reliever Tom Sheehan was acquired from the Cincinnati Reds in mid May and pitched well with the Buccos, posting an ERA+ of 168.

The 1925 Pirates stumbled out of the gate, starting out 6-11 – a full 6.5 games behind the New York Giants and in last place. My mid-June the Pirates had climbed to 2nd place, and finally overtook the Giants on June 28th. The lead would swap back and forth for the rest of June and July with the Giants leading by a half game on August 1st. The next day the Pirates finally reached 1st place for good and eventually won by 8.5 games.

The 1925 Giants had won the WS in 1921 and 1922, and NL pennants in 1923 and 1924. Managed by legendary HOF manager John McGraw, their roster included HOFers Frankie Frisch (.331/.374/.472); Ross Youngs (.264/.354/.372); Travis Jackson (.285/.327/.397); a young Freddie Lindstrom (.287/.332/.430); George Kelly (.309/.350/.471); Bill Terry (.319/.374/.474); a young Hack Wilson (.239/.322/.422); and Billy Southworth (.292/.363/.391). That is not a misprint, the Giants claimed eight HOFers on their roster in 1925, though Hack Wilson was not yet in his prime and Southworth, Jackson, and Youngs had down years.

The Pirates competition in the 1925 World Series would be the reigning champions, the Washington Senators. The Senators pitching staff was top-notch, including HOFer and two-time AL MVP (perhaps the greatest pitcher ever), Walter “The Big Train” Johnson (20-7, 137). Fellow HOFer Stan Coveleski (20-5, 148) pitched his last great season in 1925, as the Senators led the AL in ERA and fewest hits allowed. HOF player/manager Bucky Harris played 2nd base, while HOFers Sam Rice (.350/.388/.442) and Goose Goslin (.334/.394/.547) roamed the outfield.

The 1925 World Series was possibly the most closely contested series ever and resulted in a dramatic 3-games-to-1 come-from-behind victory for the Pirates.

• Game 1: Senators 4-1 (Johnson CG , 10 K’s, beans Max Carey twice [Kovacevic, 2005])
• Game 2: Pirates 3-2 (Cuyler hits a 2-run HR in the 8th to win)
• Game 3: Senators 4-3 (Senators score 2 in bottom of 7th; Firpo Marberry gets save)
• Game 4: Senators 4-0 (a Johnson CG shutout; Goslin’s hits 3-run HR)
• Game 5: Pirates 6-3 (Aldridge CG win)
• Game 6: Pirates 3-2 (Ray Kremer CG win; Eddie Moore HR in 5th wins it)
• Game 7: Pirates 9-7 (Buccos score 3 runs in bottom of 8th; Carey goes 4-5, 3 R, 2RBI; Johnson takes the loss)

Max Carey batted an impressive .458/.552/.625 with 4 doubles and three steals during his only World Series appearance. Forty-three year-old Babe Adams, the only remaining player of the 1909 WS champions, pitched one inning of relief in game 4. The original Babe retired after the 1926 season.The 1925 Pirates were a strong offensive team at every position, with excellent starting and relief pitching. They beat a HOF-laden Giants team for the NL pennant and then the defending WS champion Senators for the title. The worst you could say about them was that they had a weak bench beyond top-reserve Stuffy McInnis.

1927 Pirates

After winning the 1925 World Series in dramatic fashion, the 1926 team fell back to 3rd place in the NL, 4.5 games behind the eventual WS champion St. Louis Cardinals, who would win two WS and four NL pennants from 1926-1931. However, 1926 was memorable for the debut of HOFer Paul Waner, who batted a remarkable .336/.413/.528.

The Pirates began the 1927 season 7-1, and maintained a narrow lead over the Cubs and Cardinals through June, before the Cubs finally caught them in mid-July. After several lead swaps between the Buccos and Cubs in late July, the Cubs took a five game lead in mid-August. The Cubs faded down the stretch, but the New York Giants (HOFers Bill Terry, Rogers Hornsby, Freddie Lindstrom, Travis Jackson, Edd Roush, a young Mel Ott and Burleigh Grimes) and Cardinals (HOFers Jim Bottomley, Frankie Frisch, Chick Hafey, Billy Southworth, Jesse Haines, and Pete Alexander) surged and challenged the Pirates for the NL pennant throughout September. The Pirates were up to the challenge and won the race by just 1.5 games over the Cardinals and 2.0 games over the Giants.

Paul Waner (.380/.437/.549) was the NL MVP in 1927 at just 24 years-of-age, and was joined by his younger brother and fellow HOFer Lloyd (.355/.396/.410) in the outfield. Due to disagreements with management, HOFer Kiki Cuyler, in the prime of his career, was consistently benched and played in only 85 games. Cuyler still performed well when given the opportunity, hitting .309/.394/.435 while splitting time with Clyde Barnhart (.319/.384/.434). HOFer Pie Traynor (.342/.370/.455) had another good season, as did waiver-claim, 36-year-old 1st baseman Joe Harris (.326/.402/.472). Future HOFer Joe Cronin played in 12 games with the Pirates during 1927, before eventually ending up with the Senators in mid-1928 (was Dave Littlefield the GM in 1927?).

The pitchers were led by veteran starters Lee Meadows (19-10, 121) and Ray Kremer (19-8, 166). Johnny Miljus (8-3, 216), who had not played in the majors since 1921, enjoyed a strong comeback season pitching in relief, giving up only 16 earned runs in 75 and 2/3 innings.

Alas, the Pirates, who boasted four future HOFers, ran into the buzz-saw that was the famed 1927 Yankees, perhaps the greatest baseball team ever. Known as the “Murderer’s Row” for the deadly lineup they posed, these Yankees were truly dangerous to any pitcher they faced:

• HOF 1st baseman Lou Gehrig: .373/.474/.765, HR 47, RBI 175
• HOF 2nd baseman Tony Lazzeri: .309/.383/.482, HR 18, RBI 102
• HOF outfielder Earle Combs: .356/.414/.511
• HOF outfielder Babe Ruth: .356/.486/.772, HR 60, RBI 164
• Outfielder Bob Meusel: .337/.393/.510, HR 8, RBI 103
• HOF pitcher Waite Hoyt: 22-7, 146
• HOF pitcher Herb Pennock: 19-8, 128

The Pirates were swept in the WS 4-0, though Game 1 (5-4) and Game 4 (4-3) were close losses. The Buccos batted just .223/.243/.285 as a team and pitchers Vic Aldridge and Lee Meadows were battered during their starts. It was a disappointing end to an exciting season, and sadly was the one and only occasion the Waner brothers would enjoy WS competition. In fact, it would be a very long time before any Pirates player found themselves back in the WS.

In Part Three: Subjective Analysis 1960-1979, we will continue our analysis of the players, managers and the competition of these great Pirates teams.

Statistical Sources:

www.baseballrace.com

www.baseball-reference.com

www.mlb.com

References:

• Kovacevic, Dejan (2005, June 28). 1925 World Series: A great story worth retelling. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (online edition)
• Staff (1913, December 7). War That Crippled National League: Ban Johnson’s Campaign Swept Star Players out of the Old Organization. The New York Times, pp. S4

Editor’s Note: This is the first in a four-part series in which Peter Fritsch determines the greatest Pirates team ever.

Several years ago, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette posed a question in the online Pirates Q&A forum: Which was the Greatest Pittsburgh Pirates Team Ever? Several readers sent in their choice, and most focused on the teams that they had personally witnessed. It was a fun topic to consider, especially given the lack of recent Pirate success, but to answer such an important question, it seems that a deeper look is warranted. We will make that attempt here, and I look forward to the conversations that will inevitably follow.

Since the Pirates are one of the original National League (NL) franchises (playing under the moniker “Pittsburg Alleghenys” from 1882-1890), at first glance the question appears to be daunting. We can quickly narrow the scope by first eliminating all seasons prior to 1901, generally considered to be the pre-modern era of baseball. Most Pirate fans and sports pundits would agree that the seasons from 1993 to the present could also be immediately eliminated, as the Pirates throughout this era have rarely resembled a bona-fide Major League Baseball team, much less the greatest team in franchise history. We will go one step further, and eliminate all seasons that did not result in either an NL pennant or World Series (WS) championship. While this rules out the excellent Pirates teams of the early 1990’s and mid-1970’s, it provides a useful minimum criteria to focus the discussion. So that leaves us with the following nine seasons for consideration:

• 1901 NL Champions (prior to World Series competition)
• 1902 NL Champions (prior to World Series competition)
• 1903 NL Champions (1st World Series)
• 1909 World Series Champions
• 1925 World Series Champions
• 1927 NL Champions
• 1960 World Series Champions
• 1971 World Series Champions
• 1979 World Series Champions

For the sabermetricians keeping score, we will not be developing a mathematical formula that results in a numerical score and a “definitive” answer. Instead, we will go about this the old fashioned way (similar to Hall of Fame discussions), by examining both statistical and subjective evidence. Having announced our sabermetric flaws from the beginning, we will nevertheless focus our inter-season statistical observations on league-relative ratios when possible, and not raw “counting” stats.

Part One: Statistical Analysis

We can start the analysis by examining composite team statistics like won/loss percentage (WL%), runs scored per game above league average, runs allowed below league average and similar league relative statistics. This will provide an indication of “league dominance”; that is, a measure of the Pirates’ production compared to the rest of the league during a given season.

Table 1 below shows the composite WL% for each season under consideration, including the WL record from the playoffs and WS. Clearly, the 1902 and 1909 seasons stand out above the rest by a substantial margin. The 1902 team won the NL by 27.5 games, a sizeable .198 points, while the 1909 Pirates won a close race over the Chicago Cubs by 6.5 games or .044 points (those poor Cubbie fans – their team wins 104 regular season games and can’t even make the playoffs!).

Table 1: Composite WL %

Table 2 attempts to show the offensive dominance of the Pirates compared to the rest of league for each season. It shows the runs per game (R/G) above the league average; the rank (1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc) for R/G, batting average (AVG), on-base percentage (OBP), and slugging percentage (SLG); the normalized on-base plus slugging (OPS+; 100 is league average) which accounts for park and league factors; and the difference (or delta) between the Pirates OPS+ and the league leader (a negative delta) or the runner-up (a positive delta) if the Pirates had the highest OPS+. Stolen base percentage is not evaluated because caught stealing incidents were not tracked until 1951 in the NL.

Again, the 1902 season jumps out above all others. The Pirates ranked 1st in the league in each offensive category, scored 37% more R/G than the league average, and were 13 OPS+ points higher than the closest competitor (a rather average Cincinnati Reds team that boasted Hall of Famers Sam Crawford and Jake Beckley). The 1909 and 1925 seasons are also impressive, as the Buccos again led the league in each offensive category, though the OPS+ delta and R/G are much closer to the competition than in 1902. The 1901, 1903, and 1971 seasons are clustered closely together in respect to offensive dominance, but none quite reach the level of 1902, 1909 and 1925. It should be noted that it is easier to dominate a league with fewer teams. In our case, by the 1971 and 1979 seasons, the NL had expanded to 12 teams, making it more difficult for the Pirates to dominate in multiple categories than from 1901-1960.

Table 2: Offensive Dominance

Let us next consider pitching dominance for each season in our sample. We will follow the same process as offensive dominance; though recall that pitching statistics are significantly influenced by the defensive ability of the players in the field. Therefore, in addition to runs allowed per game below league average and collective team ERA+ (the ratio of the league’s earned run average (ERA) to an individual pitcher with ballpark adjustments; 100 is league average), we will also consider strikeouts (SO), walks (BB), and homeruns (HR) allowed. Because these three statistics are completely under the control of a pitcher and not influenced by fielding, they successfully isolate pitching skill from fielding skill. As shown below in Table 3, the 1902 season again stands out above the rest. That season the Pirates allowed the fewest runs per game, struck out more batters, walked the fewest batters, and gave up the fewest home runs (just 4 all season). The 1901 and 1960 seasons are also impressive examples of pitching dominance and could be argued to be nearly equal to 1902, as 1901 boasts the only time the Pirates led the league in ERA+, and HRs were so rare at the turn of the century as to be nearly statistically irrelevant.

Table 3: Pitching Dominance

A final observation before moving on: a comparison of Table 2 and Table 3 clearly demonstrates that each of the Pirates’ greatest seasons were spurred largely by vastly superior offense with above average (but not great, with the exception of 1902) pitching. It makes you wonder about the old adage that baseball games are won with “pitching and defense”. It certainly appears that scoring lots of runs will also win many baseball games.

Having looked at composite team statistics and offensive and pitching dominance, the next logical area to discuss is defense. In our discussion of pitching dominance, we remarked that isolating pitching ability from the defense that surrounds it can be quite challenging. The same holds true in reverse; for example, a team with high strikeout totals has fewer batted balls in play, likely resulting in fewer double plays. So how can we effectively measure defensive ability?

The age-old defensive statistic of errors versus chances is so subjective as to be nearly the equivalent of a judge’s score in figure skating. New defensive statistics such as Zone Rating and Defensive Efficiency (DE; an estimate of the number of batted balls in play that result in outs) offer promise, but complete historical data from the early 1900’s is often unavailable. As such we will offer only a cursory study of defense limited to the DE of each Pirate team under consideration, remembering the lack of historical data available in many cases.

As shown below in Table 4, it is challenging to identify any one season as defensively outstanding from the others. Perhaps a case could be made for the 1927 season, the only year the Pirates led the NL in DE. We might conclude that the 1901, 1902, 1903, and 1909 teams were at least above average defensively, or perhaps the data is inaccurate, we just don’t know.

www.baseball-reference.com

www.mlb.com

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette is reporting that Freddy Sanchez has signed a two-year deal, with a unique optional third year for around $19M. If the details are correct, this appears to be a good signing for the Pirates.

Sanchez was above-average defensively at 2nd base in 2007 (+0.51 RF, .987 F%, 121 DPs, 2nd GG balloting) and at 3rd base in 2006 (+0.68 RF, .981 F%). While underpowered for a prototypical 3rd baseman, his offensive skills are well above average for a 2nd baseman (2006 OPS+ 119; 2007 OPS+ 103).

So the Pirates have locked up a good fielding, above-average hitting, and versatile infielder through two arbitration years AND his first free agent year for a very reasonable price. Given that Freddy will be 30 this season, I was worried that the Pirates were going to panic and sign Sanchez to a six-year deal or longer. Such a deal would have been a classic Pirates front office blunder under the Cam Bonifay or Dave Littlefield regimes, as few players are worth huge dollars at 34, 35 or 36. This is just the first major move by team president Frank Coonelly and GM Neal Huntington, but it looks like a winner.

Prior to the start of Spring Training, our writers will be suggesting the first thing they would do as GM to improve each team. Here is a look at the Pirates by Peter Fritsch.

If the Pittsburgh Pirates hired me as their new GM today, I would make like Donald Trump and fire the vast majority of the scouting department (still largely intact after Dave Littlefield’s departure), which has been so atrocious at evaluating baseball skill. To fill the void, I would raid the scouting staffs of Oakland, Florida, Arizona, Minnesota, Cleveland, and Boston, recruiting the scouts who have successfully evaluated talent such as Nick Swisher, Miguel Cabrera, Brandon Webb, Justin Morneau, Victor Martinez, and Dustin Pedroia.

To entice their defection to Pittsburgh, I would offer them significant salary increases, in addition to bonuses for signing/evaluating players that eventually contribute at the major league level.

Because Pirates ownership is determined to maintain a low payroll, the only way to compete is to have a steady stream of young talent from the amateur draft and Latin America. For example, you MUST be able to correctly differentiate between drafting Bryan Bullington (0 career wins) with the #1 overall draft pick in 2002 as the Pirates did; versus the Brewer’s selection of Prince Fielder (80 career home runs) at #7 in the same draft.

You definitely will not get it right every time, but you have to get it right the majority of time. Only by having the best scouts can the low-budget Pirates hope to compete.

My presents for the NL Central:

Chicago Cubs

Full health for Kerry Wood, to give you the major’s best 1-2-3 bullpen punch: Wood/Marmol/Howry. I’ll also throw in the gift of patience. If you don’t trade Sean Gallagher, then keep him in the minors for the full season and keep his pitch count down. He’ll replace Dempster in the rotation in 2009.

Milwaukee Brewers

I don’t understand you. You’ve put together some of the best young talent in the game (Fielder, Braun, Hart Gallardo and maybe Hardy as well), so you are to be commended. But your bullpen, for the love of the North Pole. Gagne, Turnbow, Mota and Torres are a recipe for disaster. Rather than mask the symptoms by giving you a Sam’s Club tub of Tums, I will provide a cure and give you a “Special General Manager of Bullpen Construction” who will be autonomous of GM Melvin.

St. Louis Cardinals

A hard hat – for when Joel Pineiro and Braden Looper implode. Sorry, guys, you might have a really bad team in 2008.

Houston Astros

More real estate – as in the ability to push back the fences. With Woody Williams, Wandy Rodriguez Chris Sampson, Brandon Backe and whomever, there’s going to be a lot of shots launched in Houston in 2008. Good move in getting Valverde, but after Oswalt there isn’t much there.

Cincinnati Reds

I’ve always been partial to the Reds – red is my favorite color, after all. I’m going to give you the gift of good Coffey – enough to push Weathers back to the 7th inning and setting up a good Weathers/Coffey/Cordero bullpen.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Patience. To the new management team, my apologies for the mess you inherited. You need to exhibit great patience, as the turnaround is going to take some time. And don’t trade Jason Bay – you won’t get enough in return. Wait a year.

The Pittsburgh Pirates organization ends up looking like a solid citizen after the first analysis of the Mitchell Report.  The only Pirate players alleged in the report to have purchased illegal substances while playing for the Pirates were journeyman catcher Tim Laker, middle reliever Josias Manzanillo, and first baseman Kevin Young.  Other former Pirate players alleged to have purchased illegal substances while with other teams include Denny Neagle, Ron Villone, Jason Christiansen, and Gary Matthews, Jr.  It is worth noting that Matt Lawton tested positive for steroids in November 2005 while with the Yankees and served a 10-game suspension in 2006.  Lawton played for the Pirates during the first-half of the 2005 season. 

Tim Laker played in 14 games for the Pirates in 1998 and six games in 1999. Laker admitted to purchasing testosterone and syringes from Mets clubhouse attendant Kirk Radomski while with the Pirates on a road trip to play the New York Mets.  Importantly, the Mitchell Report says “Laker said that he did not discuss his performance enhancing substance use with any of his club’s coaches or management.”

Josias Manzanillo pitched as a middle reliever for the Pirates from 2000-2002, having very good years in 2000 and 2001.  He is alleged to have been injected with steroids by Radomski in 1994 while playing for the Mets.  Interestingly, this is the only time Radomski ever recalls personally injecting a Major League Baseball (MLB) player (Manzanillo denies ever taking performance enhancing substances). 

While playing for the Pirates in 2001, Manzanillo is alleged to have received anti-inflammatory medications brought from Mexico by Jose Cervantes.  According to the Mitchell Report, Cervantes was “detained by a resident security agent at the Angels? stadium in Anaheim” and found in possession of prescription drugs which he admitted were purchased in Mexico and then sold to MLB players. Manzanillo’s name and phone number were found in Cervantes’ cell phone, though Manzanillo denies involvement.

This incident should have been known to Pirates management as the baseball Commissioner’s Office has records of the incident.  The Pirates released Manzanillo in November 2001, but then resigned him during March 2002, only to release him again in August 2002.

Most damning from the perspective of the Pirates organization is the revelations concerning Kevin Young, a long-time Pirate and team leader. Young played for the Pirates from 1992 through 2003, with the exception of the 1996 season when he was with the Kansas City Royals.  Young is alleged to have purchased two kits of human growth hormone from Radomski during the 2000-2001 offseason. 

Young is alleged to have purchased “five or six” human growth hormone kits from Radomski during the 2003 season to help recover from lingering injuries.  The Pirates released Young on June 29th of 2003.  Young did not respond to requests to meet with Mr. Mitchell.  As an acknowledged clubhouse leader on Pirate teams in the late ’90’s and early 2000’s, his alleged use of performance enhancing drugs taints the organization as a whole. 

Given the small sample size of players, it is difficult to make sweeping judgments concerning any organization, but based on the Mitchell Report alone, the Pittsburgh Pirates organization does not appear to have had widespread use of performance enhancing drugs during the 1990’s and 2000’s.  I will leave it to others to decide if that explains why they have not had a winning season since 1992…

On September 25 at 10:00 am, the Pirates took a big step forward in hiring New Hampshire native, Neal Huntington, as their General Manager. Two weeks later, Huntington fired head coach Jim Tracy and made it very clear that nobody’s job was safe within the organization. In a statement released to the press last week, he said the following:

“Pittsburgh is a proud sports city and the Pirates have a long and storied tradition. It is a tremendous honor to be named general manager of this great franchise. We will systematically work to change the culture of this organization and to return it to a consistent winner for the city of Pittsburgh. To achieve our goal, we will thoroughly evaluate and aggressively seek to acquire elite talent internationally and domestically. We will diligently cultivate that talent on and off the field in a process-oriented player development system that demands accountability and excellence from all staff and players. Lastly, we will utilize that talent to build our Major League roster and put our team in the best possible position to succeed.”

Huntington’s systematic and analytical approach has a lot previous success. Current GMs, Beane, Epstein, Shapiro and Byrnes (to name a few), all live and die with their statistics and have made many believe in their approach due to their success in the regular season and more importantly, the playoffs.

New Pirates President Frank Coonley has made it clear that the expensive veteran contracts have put his team, both financially and talent-wise, down the gutter. The hiring of Neal Huntington isn’t a good one just because he can put numbers to use; it is because of his record at finding talent and getting that talent mentally and physically prepared to play.

In Cleveland Huntington was an assistant and scout for one of the best GMs in the game, Mark Shapiro. Huntington played a big part in the signings of C.C. Sabathia, Fausto Carmona, Grady Seizmore and Victor Martinez. Not too shabby. He has been part of a process that most GMs have difficulty creating: finding and developing talent.

The point is this: statistical analysis can help you find out what a certain player’s advantage might be against an opponent, but it still all comes down to the talent that you pick up in the drafts or in free agency. The teams that can evaluate talent the best will succeed. Look at Arizona and Colorado; their talent speaks for itself. Huntington appears to have command over both statistical analysis and player evaluation/development and he could be a very good choice for the Pirates.

Let’s say you’re Frank Coonelly, the new Pittsburgh Pirates’ President. You need a new GM. If you could pick anyone for that role, who would it be?

I’m going to state that the goal of the Pirates is to build a consistent contender. (It may sound strange that I feel compelled to say this, but some teams (Kansas City Royals) haven’t historically given an honest effort.) I’m also going to argue that the three key steps to building a consistent contender for a small market team are:

• Developing prospects
• Hiring good management (manager and staff)
• Not doing anything stupid in free agency or via trades (I know, I’m setting the bar very low here. But a lot of smart people (Cashman with Igawa/Pavano and Epstein with Clement/Drew/Lugo) can’t seem to accomplish this, so I’ll just be happy with the status quo.)

Based on demonstrated ability to accomplish the above, I would say that the best GM candidates in order would be:

1. David Dombrowski, Tigers
2. John Schuerholz, Braves
3. Billy Beane, A’s
4. Kevin Towers, Padres

The laughter you hear coming from out West is Brian Sabean and Peter Magowan (general manager and owner, respectively, of the San Francisco Giants) reacting to the Pirates’ shocking willingness to take Matt Morris off their hands. 

How much is the soon to be 33-year old Morris worth to a poorly-run, small-market team like the Pirates?  Evidently Dave Littlefield, the Pirates’ general manager, thinks he’s worth a prospect and an annual salary of $9M through the end of next year.

A quick look at Morris’s stats, and most anyone familiar with baseball will tell you he’s not worth $9M.  He’s 7-7 with a 4.35 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP and, most troubling, a .296 batting average against.  And he’s especially not worth $9M to a team with a total budget of $38M.  That means for 2008, barring any other big expenditures, Morris will take up almost 20% of the total budget.  The Pirates can talk all they want about the need to surround their young pitchers with established veterans, but if they can’t find better uses of $9M, then they need new management. 

So how does a trade like this happen?  How do the Pirates, whom Forbes values at $271M, not have the proper management and systems in place to prevent such mistakes?  We don’t know.  They might be considered small in MLB, but in the business world they would be considered large enough to have a deep and talented management team.  There’s no reason they shouldn’t actually make competent trades and compete in the NL Central.

And before we provide Mr. Sabean credit for this trade, let’s not forget he was the one who mistakenly signed Morris to that deal.  And he was responsible for the contracts for Barry Zito, Ray Durham and Barry Bonds.  So let’s say that Sabean should be silently chuckling about the Morris, knowing there are general managers like Littlefield who bring up the rear.