I can still remember my first visit to the baseball Hall of Fame in August of 1982. I was 16 years old and had been following baseball for about 10 years. I was extremely excited because for years I had been told by writers and broadcasters and fans that the Baseball Hall of Fame was the pinnacle achievement of American sports. Only the best, elite, dominate, players are to be admitted here.

“We are not like the football hall of fame, that just admits anybody”, some writer would declare. “We have a greater deal of integrity”. Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, Ted Williams, this is our hall of fame! Hank Aaron and Frank Robinson were inducted that year so I thought, “hey, these guys are now among the elite of the sport.” Happy Chandler was inducted that year as an executive.

The next thing I remember is reading the name Travis Jackson? I had never heard of him. I was a pretty savvy baseball fan at 16, and I thought it odd that I never heard of one of the all time greats. That in a nutshell is the major problem with the baseball Hall of Fame.

People have this perception that the baseball Hall Fame is a place that is exclusive and only honors players like Ruth, Cobb, and Williams. Every year we hear some sports radio talk show host say something like: “Blyleven in the Hall of Fame?” “What are you out of your mind?” “The Hall of Fame is for Cy Young and Walter Johnson, not Bert Blyleven.”

If you get a chance to go to the Hall, walk down the section where all the plaques are hung up on the walls, and read some of the names. For every Babe Ruth there is a Ray Schalk, Kiki Cuyler, or a George Beckley. For every Ty Cobb there is a Dave Bancroft, Rick Ferell or a George Kell. For every Ted Williams there is an Earl Combs, Chick Hafey or Fred Lindstrom. The point being is that the Hall of Fame standard that people believe in hasn’t existed for 62 years.

The real problem began in 1945, when the old timer’s committee, a by-product of the original Centennial Committee, elected some 22 players, many of whom where nowhere near the level of Cobb and Ruth. The players elected from 1945-1946: Roger Bresnahan, Dan Brouthers, Fred Clarke, Jimmy Collins, Ed Delahanty, Hugh Duffy, Hugh Jennings, King Kelly, Jim O’Rourke, Jesse Burkett, Frank Chance, Jack Chesbro, Johnny Evers, Tom McCarthy, Joe McGinnity, Eddie Plank, Joe Tinker, Rube Wadell, and Ed Walsh. From this point on the Hall of Fame could no longer hold players to the Ruth, Cobb, and Young standard. It’s amazing that some 60 years later, people still feel that you will somehow taint the reputation of the Hall of Fame if you vote in some player below the level of Mickey Mantle or Willie Mays.

There was another great surge of questionable voting by the old timers committee from 1962-1964. Twelve players were elected with questionable credentials: Ed Roush, Eppa Rixey, Sam Rice, Elmer Flick, John Clarkson, Red Faber, Burleigh Grimes, Tim Keefe, John M. Ward, Heinie Manush, Pud Galvin, and Lloyd Waner.

The last great surge of questionable voting took place between1972-1977. Eighteen players were voted in by the Veterans Committee: Lefty Gomez, Ross Youngs, George Kelly, Mickey Welsh, Jim Bottemley, Sam Thompson, Earl Averill, Bucky Harris, Billy Herman, Roger Connor, Fred Lindstrom, Joe Sewell, Al Lopez, and Amos Rusie.

The problem that developed was that you had two separate committees voting in the same group of players but using two different sets of standards. For the most part the writers’ group has used a fairly strict standard when voting in players. The old timer’s/veteran committee used a much looser set of standards. A valid criticism that was levied against the Veteran’s group is that many of its members voted in ex-teammates who were less than deserving. Members of The 1890’s Baltimore Orioles and the 1920’s New York Giants are excessively represented in the hall because of this.

I think the best illustration of the how ridiculous this system operates was during the 2001 vote results between Bill Mazerowski and Lou Whitaker. Bill Mazerowski was probably the 30th best second basemen in baseball history. He was essentially Frank White, a great glove man with an OPS-plus of 84. No one has ever mentioned Frank White as a legitimate candidate, so why should Mazerowski get in the Hall? In 20001 he was voted in the by the Veterans committee. What was even more insane about 2001, was that Lou Whitaker, who’s about the 12th best second basemen of all time and a legitimate candidate, only received 15 votes and was taken off the writer’s ballot! After the 2001 vote, the veteran’s committee was disbanded.

The solution of having a larger group of ex-Hall of Famers vote was not a solution seeing as no one was voted in and the group was disbanded this year.

My solution to all of this mess would be to assemble a panel of 12 baseball researchers/historians, (James, Thorn, Palmer, etc.) and have them come up with a list of the best players who they believe should be in the Hall of Fame. First make sure that all of the top ten players at each position are in the Hall of Fame. Next debate and vote whether the 11 thru 15th best players deserves to be in as well. Finally see if any player in the 16 to 20th range also deserves to be included. This way I think you can get some semblance of a Hall of Fame standard.

For me, the horse has already been let out of the barn for over 60 years. It’s kind of like being a little bit pregnant. You can’t kick Red Schoendist, Ernie Lombardi and Chuck Klein out and you can’t claim that your Hall of Fame standard is Willie, Mickey and the Duke.

When people talk about baseball’s most patient hitters, are they referring to the hitters who most frequently walk?

Patience means getting your pitch depending on the strategy at the moment. It might mean getting a walk if you need base runners. It might mean waiting for a pitch up in the zone that you can drive or low if you’re a low-ball hitter. The definition of patience is very situational and specific to each individual.

Take a look at a few important statistics to get a broad idea of how patience manifests itself. For example, here are some hitters who drew a lot of walks this year. Obviously drawing a lot of walks heavily influences OBP and BB%, but notice the wide variance in BB/K ratio (all stats courtesy of www.baseball-reference.com)

Is it a coincidence who the hitters are and what their production was for 2007? Well maybe Carlos Pena.

It’s not just that these hitters can tell a ball from a strike; it’s that they know what to do with the strikes that they see. They know if they see a good pitch, it might be the only one. The good ones WILL NOT MISS THAT ONE PITCH even if it’s the first pitch of an at bat.

Again, does patience mean taking a ball (avoiding a bad pitch) or taking a strike (to tire the pitcher and/or get a better pitch later in the at-bat)? Certainly, dangerous hitters in general see more balls, and taking them isn’t necessarily a sign of pure patience, but discretion.

This concept is actually far older then the modern zealots would have you believe, stretching back much further then even Ted Williams famous mantra” Get a good pitch to hit.” From Ted:

Every pitcher has a best pitch. Let him get that out of his system, and unless it is a third strike, take it. Take a strike. Take two strikes to get the ball you want to hit… Letting strikes go by when they look good is a difficult subject to discuss with anxious players. But the great hitters are the essence of patience and confidence in waiting for the ball they want.

Sixty- seven years later, no matter how it is defined, MLB organizations are preaching to their minor leaguers to learn the strike zones before their hot zones. It’s a process of commanding the strike zone and getting yourself into hitter’s counts. It all starts with pitch recognition – taking pitches has a negative connotation – “you’re taking the bat out of my hands”. No, I’m asking you to know the strike zone and your zone, and when the pitch is there, hack at it!

Last week Brian Cashman, Yankees GM, instructed his second basemen, Robinson Cano, to stop playing winter ball. Good move by Cashman.

I completely understand why Cano wanted to play winter baseball in the Dominican Republic. The Dominican is his home, he loves the game, and he is supporting the league that allowed him to be where he is today. He is giving back to the local community and supporting Dominican baseball. Cano is showing the youth in the Dominican how he’s made it to the top and has not forgotten his roots.

However, if I owned a baseball team I wouldn’t allow a player I’m investing millions of dollars in to ever play winter baseball, unless he was supervised by company personnel and each game was monitored as it is in the States. Unless my player was willing to waive his entire salary and take monthly health examinations there’s no way my investment would ever be exposed to such a high health risk. JP Ricciardi has kept Alex Rios from playing for Caguas in Puerto Rico for a long time, and although Joey Cora (a quality baseball guy) was the GM of the team the Blue Jays didn’t want to take any chances. I don’t blame them.

Every player assumes he can manage his game and health during competition. He feels he’s able to turn the jets on and off whenever he feels the need. Let me tell you something: when a pitcher is throwing a plus 90 mph fastball up around your neck to back you off the plate, there is definitely going to be a reaction. Many parts of baseball are 100% unmanageable. What I mean is that the competitive juices start flowing, and as a player you can’t help but go all out.

I wouldn’t have the best interest of the company in mind if I allowed my player assets to be unnecessary risk, especially if it isn’t being monitored on a daily basis.

Adam’s Take

Pags hit the nail on the head when he speaks of unnecessary risk. Risk isn’t inherently a bad thing, but there needs to be commensurate benefits to justify taking the risk. In this case, there appears to be no benefit. Now if Cano was coming off injury and needed some at bats, then there would be a benefit. Or if Cano was changing positions. Or if there was a specific area Cano needed to improve upon. But none of that appears to be the case, so good move by the Yankees. No team should let their players play in winter ball, unless there is a damn good reason. When is the last time you heard of someone in the NFL playing some semi-pro in the off season?

It seems like every off-season features half the teams in the Major Leagues attempting to acquire an established closer. Whether via trade or free agency, the capture of this rare breed of pitcher (genus Closer Terribilus) is often at the top of a General Manager’s “to do” list on the first of December. The fact that pitchers with a consistent track record of successfully closing games are fairly scarce invariably drives up their price, either in free agent dollars or the number and quality of the players that must be traded to get one in return. The question is should your team be spending those resources on this rare bird?

The answer to this question, like most things in baseball, isn’t a simple one. Acquiring any player via free agency or trade is an exercise in risk management. How will this player help us? What could I do with this money other than pay this player? How good will the players I have to trade away become? All of these factors, and many more, are part of the calculation every GM must make before pulling the trigger on any transaction. One of the most important factors, however, is the likelihood that the acquired player will continue to perform at or above his present level. This article addresses that question.

In pursuit of a better understanding of the consistency of closers I looked at every relief pitcher that accumulated at least 25 saves in one season over the last 25 years. Now I know what some of you are saying, “Why is he using saves? That’s not a good way to measure how good a relief pitcher really is.” Well, I agree with you, but disregarding saves ignores the reality of the situation. Saves are “the coin of the realm” whether or not you think they’re important. Major League teams pay top dollar for saves and it doesn’t appear that this will change any time in the near future. We’ll get back to the weakness of the save statistic later in the article, but for now it’s 25-save pitchers we’re going to study.

For each one of these pitchers I documented how many 25-save seasons they had in their career and whether those seasons were recorded with the team for which they originally became a closer or after they had moved to another team. First let’s look at the raw numbers and then let’s try to figure out what they tell us.

Ninety-nine different pitchers have saved at least 25 games in the last 25 years. Here’s a breakdown of those 99 with the number of 25-save seasons they recorded.

# of 25-save Seasons vs. # of Pitchers

• 1: 33
• 2: 19
• 3: 15
• 4: 7
• 5: 3
• 6: 5
• 7: 5
• 8: 5
• 9: 3
• 10+: 4

Now these 99 pitchers recorded a total of 338 seasons of 25 saves or more. It should be noted that some of these seasons fall outside of my 25 year limit. All a pitcher had to do to make the study was record one such season within the time limit, but for this part of the analysis I counted every time they achieved the mark. For example, Dennis Eckersley makes the study and all nine of his seasons count even though only four of them have happened since 1993. Here’s the breakdown of these seasons.

• 338: Total 25-save seasons
• 232: Save seasons recorded for first team
• 106: Save seasons recorded for other teams

These 106 seasons can be subdivided further by noting how the pitcher was acquired. Closers signed as free agents have notched 56 25-save seasons for their new teams, while those acquired via trade managed 50 such seasons.

So what does it all mean? First and foremost, the number of pitchers who have a proven ability to save 25 or more games in a season is relatively small. Two-thirds of our pitchers (67 of 99) recorded 25 saves in three or fewer seasons. More than three-quarters of the sample (77 of 99) tallied five or fewer 25-save seasons. The definition of “proven ability” is obviously open to interpretation, but one would assume that a pitcher would certainly have to record 25 saves more than three times to be considered “proven”, and I wouldn’t have a problem moving that bar to the “more than five season” mark. Even if we use the lesser number as our definition of “proven ability” it is painfully obvious that the population of proven closers at any given time in the majors is very small. Most teams have to make do with a pitcher they’ve decided has what it takes to be a closer and hope for the best. It turns out that this isn’t necessarily a bad way to go.

Sixty-nine percent (232 of 338) of the 25-save seasons recorded by these pitchers happened with the team that first put them in the closer role. Clearly this is partially driven by the fact that most of the pitchers were only able to turn the trick three or fewer times. In addition to this, however, is that most teams are very reluctant to deal an established closer. They recognize, even if they haven’t run the numbers, that established closers are very rare and they decide to hold on to their gems and ride them as long as they can. Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman and Troy Percival would be the most notable examples of this phenomenon.

Most closers who switch teams never record more than two more seasons of 25 saves for their new teams. Thirty-nine pitchers in the study had 25 save seasons for two or more teams, but twenty-five of them failed to record more than two such seasons for their second team. I have to believe that the GMs who acquired these 39 pitchers were hoping for more than two productive seasons from their new closers, and most of them have to look back at these moves with some level of regret.

Part of what these numbers show is the problem with using the save statistic to measure the value of a closer. Fully one-third of the pitchers in the study recorded 25 saves one time and then never did it again. This speaks to the fact that all saves aren’t recorded equally and pitchers can find ways to accumulate them without actually being very good. Does anybody think Dan Kolb is a good relief pitcher or an established closer? Not anymore they don’t, but the Braves were willing to trade two players to get him after he posted 39 saves in 2004. He’s managed to record 12 more saves in the last three seasons.

The focus on saves leads teams to allocate their resources inefficiently by signing closers to costly free agent contracts or trading away players whose value is greater than the closer the team is getting in return. General Managers who consistently try to “solve” their closer problem by bringing in pitchers who’ve earned a bunch of saves in the past often find themselves having to solve the same problem again the next year.

So should your team go after that closer? My answer would be not unless a closer is the missing piece between your team and the playoffs. The likelihood that the player you are getting won’t perform at the level you expect is simply too great to warrant the money or player value necessary to attract a closer with any kind of credentials.

On the flip side, if I were a fan of a team that is rebuilding or in a small market I would be encouraging my GM to trade his closer every time he has one that records 25 saves. The odds are that such a pitcher won’t be able to continue putting up 25 save seasons very far into the future, and the market overvalues such seasons. This is the perfect recipe for swinging a deal that returns some low cost talent to a rebuilding team. Are you listening Jim Bowden?

The list of free agents that are still available is unique this year in that there are a lot of unemployed players who are likely to be on the Hall of Fame ballot some day. Here’s Part IV of a look at the pitchers. Part I discussed Mike Piazza, Sammy Sosa, Barry Bonds and Jeff Cirillo. Part II discussed Rondell White, Darin Erstad and Julio Franco. Part III looked at Shawn Green, Reggie Sanders and Mike Sweeney.

Armando Benitez

• Age: 35 at the start of the 2008 season
• Career numbers: 3.11 ERA, 1.219 WHIP and 289 saves
• 2007 numbers: 5.36 ERA, 1.550 WHIP and 9 saves in 55 innings

In 2004, Benitez had a filthy good season, saving 47 games for the Marlins and posting a 1.29 ERA and 0.818 WHIP. That ERA translates into an ERA plus of 317! The Giants then signed him Benitez to what seemed to be a fairly reasonable three year, $21M deal. Turns out it wasn’t, as Benitez was consistently injured during those three years, and didn’t pitch that well when healthy. Now Benitez is a free agent, and no teams are beating down the door to sign him for a closer’s role. He still struck out more than a batter per innings, so he still has some goods and would be of value to teams looking for someone in the 7th or 8th and to serve as a back-up closer. That pretty much describes every team except for Colorado and San Diego. Verdict: 2-year, $6M deal with Baltimore, Detroit or Texas to serve as set-up man and back-up closer.

Aaron Sele

• Age: 38 at the start of the 2008 season
• Career numbers: 4.61 ERA, 1.491 WHIP and 148-112 record
• 2007 numbers: 5.37 ERA, 1.845 WHIP and 3-2 record in 34 relief appearances

Aaron Sele played for the Mets last year? As a reliever? What? How did I completely miss that?

Sele’s career has been marked by a lot of stinker seasons. Even in 1999, when he finished fifth in the CY Young, he posted a 4.79 ERA and 1.532 WHIP. Since a 3.60 ERA in 2001 (pre-free agency year), he’s posted ERAs of 4.89, 5.77, 5.05, 5.66, 4.53 and 5.37 – all worse than the league average. And in those six seasons, he’s struck out just 0.5 batters per inning. At age 38, Sele is going to get worse, so he and his $50M career earnings should just walk away now. Verdict: Hang ‘Em Up.

David Wells

• Age: 45 at the start of the 2008 season
• Career numbers: 4.13 ERA, 1.266 WHIP and 239-157 record
• 2007 numbers: 5.43 ERA, 1.544 WHIP and 9-9 record

He’s fat. He’s old. He hasn’t pitched well in two years. At 45, he isn’t going to get better. Why hasn’t Wells been cast in some movie as an ornery Santa Claus? His only value now is as an insurance player for a contending team. With bridges burned in New York (Yankees), Boston, Toronto, and San Diego, that leaves Arizona and the Mets as the best fits. But he isn’t going to accept being an insurance guy, so it doesn’t matter anyway. Verdict: Hang ‘Em Up.

The release of the Mitchell Report showed one of the glaring weaknesses in Bud Selig’s tenure as Commissioner of Major League Baseball. The issue of drug use in baseball has been present since the late 1980s. Supposedly, Selig was told about the rampant use of performance-enhancing drugs in the mid-1990s, but he denied knowing about it until 1998. Rumors have been going around that Selig may retire at the end of his current contract, and as a result, media, baseball officials, and fans alike have been debating his impact on the game. There have been multiple pros and one large con in Selig’s time as Commissioner. Whether or not Selig has had a “good” or “bad” impact isn’t really a one-word answer.

The most recent of Selig’s accomplishments is the money the league has drawn in the past decade. He took a league that earned $1.2 billion in revenue in 1992, and more than tripled that figure in the most recent estimate of 2007 revenue: $6 billion. That total only trails last year’s NFL revenue by $0.3 billion, which is a significant upgrade from the past, in which Major League Baseball was trumped by the National Football League by billions of dollars.

The idea of Revenue Sharing, which Selig enacted, was the first step towards a solution for the salary gap between The Yankees, Red Sox, and the rest of the Major Leagues. According to last year’s figures, the difference between the Yankees and Red Sox was only twice the difference between the Red Sox and the next highest team, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. As late as 2004, the difference between the Yankees and Red Sox was the same amount as between the Red Sox and Tampa Bay Devil Rays, who had the twenty-seventh highest payroll in the Majors. A record seven teams are expected to have payrolls over $100 million for the 2008 season, meaning that the salaries of the teams will not be as stratified as they were projected to be.

With the exception of the teams that pocket their profits from revenue sharing, such as the Marlins and Devil Rays, revenue sharing has brought financial and on-the-field success to many smaller-market teams. By simply requiring teams to spend a certain amount of the revenue sharing on the payroll (either a percentage or a dollar amount), the chasm between the financial powers and the rest of the teams could be closed. With the way Bud Selig has dealt with the MLB’s economics, that is not an unreasonable expectation.

Before Major League Baseball tripled in size monetarily, there was the issue of its fan base. Selig took care of that thanks to the institution of a new playoff system. Attendance records were set across the league in 2006 and broken in 2007, as overall attendance was up 4.5 percent in the last year alone.

The first move Selig made towards improving attendance was back in 1995, early in his time at the helm. When he called for the realignment of the divisions, many questioned the new formats for the regular and post-seasons. They had not been changed in years, but with the institution of the Wild Card and the eight team playoff system, Selig created a cash cow and fan magnet.

Just two years later, he introduced interleague play, which gave teams a chance to see how they would compare in the other league and give their fans another thing to enjoy. Even fans of the worst teams had a new way to look at their team.

Both of the Florida Marlins’ World Series Championships (in 1997 and 2003), as well as the Boston Red Sox first in eighty-six years (in 2004) among others have been possible only because of the wild card, and more teams have had increased attendance in September because of the widening of the playoff race.

Whether or not increased revenue and fan base, interleague play, and the wild card can be reason enough to cancel out the negatives from steroids is yet to be known. We may not find out until a decade or more from now exactly who did or did not take performance-enhancing drugs. How it will affect Hall of Fame balloting might be seen next year, but will it set a precedent for an entire decade of players?

Records such as Barry Bonds’ all-time home run title could be challenged, but we don’t know when or how that will be. Only a handful of trainers were mentioned in the Mitchell Report, and hundreds have been employed by Major League teams since the supposed beginning of these drugs’ use. Steroids, Human Growth Hormone, and other performance-enhancing drugs will certainly have a negative impact on the game, but could any other commissioner have handled the problem better?

Maybe a hard-nosed commissioner like the NFL’s Roger Goodell would have had a solution, but we may never know for sure. What we do know is that Bud Selig has helped baseball grow internationally and economically. He is not finished dealing with the problem just yet. People should not jump to conclusions about his run as MLB Commissioner until it is over, and all the dust has settled. Only then can we make an informed decision about Bud Selig’s impact.

There are reports that the Mets are interested in free agent starting pitcher Jon Lieber. Let’s look at whether he’s a good fit for the Mets.

Lieber is a good guy with good experience. He’s started 326 games, producing a 129-121 record with a 4.28 ERA. He’s had success in two of the toughest baseball towns – New York (with the Yankees) and Philadelphia. As with most pitchers, especially those who rely more on command, he’ll have better success in the NL. He’s an intelligent starter who knows how to keep his team in the game and which batters to stay away from.

The 37 year old Lieber only pitched in 14 games last year because of a ruptured tendon in his right foot, but his arm appears to be okay (though he’s had some elbow problems before due to all the sliders he throws). If his foot is good, then Lieber should be able to resume his status as an average category pitcher. He’s not a number one, two or three, but if a team such as the Mets gets him with the expectations of and at the price of a number four or five, they’ll be doing well.

A healthy Lieber will deliver the same type of performance of the overpaid Carlos Silva for one and possibly two years, and I’d take Lieber over Silva on the mound for my team any day of the weak. And at a much more reasonable price. If the Mets could sign Lieber for $5M-$8M over two years, they’d be getting a bargain. I could see him going 12-11 with a 4.55 ERA and 1.3 WHIP – good for a number four and great for a number five.

It’s hard to predict how the Mets rotation will look with Lieber because how do you project what Pedro will do? Assuming Pedro is healthy and is as effective as he was at the end of the year (a huge assumption), the rotation would look like:

1. Pedro Martinez
2. John Maine
3. Oliver Perez
4. Orlando Hernandez
5. Jon Lieber

Mike Pelfrey needs a full year of development at AAA, so I wouldn’t consider him for the rotation for 2008. With injury histories to Pedro, Hernandez and Lieber, GM Minaya would still need several quality insurance pitchers at AAA. But Lieber is a step in the right direction for a team in need of pitching help.

The Chiba Lotte Marines And Kobayashi Hope to Post For 2009

The Chiba Lotte Marines and Hiroyuki Kobayashi (29) agreed to a 2-year contract worth 400 million yen, plus incentives and a signing bonus. Kobayashi, however, turned down the club’s initial offer of a 3-year deal, saying he wishes to move to the US as a free agent. The club had flatly refused to give Kobayashi a posting opportunity in 2008. Under the present system, Kobayashi will become eligible for free agency in 2010 but if the FA qualification period is shortened from the present 9 years to 8 years, then Kobayashi will become a free agent in 2009.  Either way, look for Kobayashi to be in the Major Leagues in 09’.

Tokyo-Based TV Networks Strongly Urge NPB to Reduce Game Length

For the first time in its history, all Tokyo-based TV networks (six major networks) made a formal proposal to NPB to shorten game-length. The game broadcasters for the networks complained that the average CL game length in 2007 was 3 hours 19 minutes (5 minutes longer than what it was in 2006) and for the PL game was 3 hours 18 minutes (the same as in 2006).

A spokesman for the Nippon TV Broadcasting, which is affiliated with the Yomiuri Group, stated that out of the 40 CL games it broadcasted in 2007, only one game was completed within the two and a half hour airtime allotted. Such long games are one of the major reasons why TV viewers are staying away from live NPB game telecasts.

Source: 12.27.2007 online edition of the Sports Hochi Newspaper

I heard that the Baseball Writers’ Association will be including some internet-based writers into the fold. Maybe I’ll have Hall of Fame voting power someday! Be afraid! Until then, I’ll have to pretend. Here’s the third of three players I would vote in this year (my others were Goose Gossage and Bert Blyleven.) And yep, I know I’m gonna get slammed for this one.

Mark McGwire

He was one of the most feared hitters in baseball during his career and in the game’s history. He was a guy who changed his swing half-way through his career to create more backspin on the baseball and therefore better lift and more home runs – and I can appreciate how difficult it is to make such a change. He worked relentlessly on his swing and on his body. He was a tireless worker in his gym, and whatever his methods were for maximizing his body’s capabilities, those methods were known by and supported by his team, his GM and MLB. I can’t penalize a guy for that.

And now the writers – the same ones who knew about the steroid problem but as a whole did nothing about it – are trying to tell me we should punish McGwire? I don’t buy it. These are also the same writers who voted him second and fifth in MVP voting in 1998 and 1999 – and who awarded the MVP to Barry Bonds from 2001 to 2004. There’s something to be said for consistency.

McGwire was a great slugger and helped turn baseball around after the strike. He deserves to be in the Hall.

On another note, how bad was Oakland’s decision to trade McGwire during the 1997 season? One of the worst ever, that’s for sure. McGwire had just hit 52 home runs in 1996. His percentages? Try .312/.467/.730! And in 105 games with the A’s in 1998, McGwire hit 34 home runs and went .284/.383/.628. Then he hits 70 in his first full season with the Cardinals.

McGwire made $38M between 1998 and 2001 with the Cardinals. Think the Cardinals made a ton of money because of that – far more than $38M? Of course they did. A huge profit! That profit could have belonged to the A’s.

Do you remember who the A’s got for McGwire?

• Blake Stein (won 5 games with the A’s before being traded to Kansas City with Jeff D’Amico and Brad Rigby for Kevin Appier)
• T.J. Matthews (won 24 games before being released)
• Eric Ludwick (won 1 game before being traded to Florida for Kurt Abbott)

Baseball fans loved to watch Mark McGwire. They’d be standing outside ballparks in the early afternoon waiting to get into the stadium early. Never were there so many fans coming to watch batting practice. Concessions, parking, ballpark vendors of all sorts experienced increased revenues. TV ratings went through the roof. There is little doubt Mark McGwire not only made baseball more popular but made a ton of money for everyone.

He is a Hall of Famer.

The list of free agents that are still available is unique this year in that there are a lot of unemployed players who are likely to be on the Hall of Fame ballot some day. Here’s Part III of a look at those players. Part I discussed Mike Piazza, Sammy Sosa, Barry Bonds and Jeff Cirillo. Part II discussed Rondell White, Darin Erstad and Julio Franco. Is it time to hang ‘em up?

Shawn Green

• Age: 35 at the start of the 2008 season
• Career numbers: .283/.355/.494
• 2007 numbers: .291/.352/.430

Except for the slugging percentage, his 2007 numbers are in line with his career averages. From 1999 to 2002, he finished in the top 10 of MVP voting three times, but he’s been a shell of that former self since. He hasn’t posted a slugging percentage higher than .477 since 2002, all the while earning $60M. That makes him one of the worst “bang for the buck” players in the game. That being said, it’s not his fault he was paid so much, and he still has some production left in his bat. I see him putting up numbers similar to 2007 in a platoon role, which would be a fit for a contending team – if he’s cheap enough. Verdict: 2-yr, $6M deal with Detroit as a backup DH/1B/RF/LF, or 1-yr, $4M deal with Padres as fill-in while Brian Giles is out with his knee injury.

Reggie Sanders

• Age: 40 at the start of the 2008 season
• Career numbers: .267/.343/.487
• 2007 numbers: .315/.412/.493 in 73 at bats

Sanders is old and injury prone, but he can still put up the numbers. His slugging percentage the last five years: .567/.482/.546/.425/.493. With his age, lack of speed and injuries, he’s best suited for a DH role, though he can be functional in left or right field. He says he wants to play for a contender on the West Coast. Oakland won’t be a contender, and Anaheim already has a glut of outfielders, so that leaves Seattle. The Mariners lost right fielder Jose Guillen to free agency and have brittle and weak hitting Jose Vidro at DH. The Mariners seem committed to young outfielder Adam Jones (who hit .314/.382/.586 last year for Tacoma at age 21), but Sanders could be a cheap and decent insurance policy for Jones and Vidro. Verdict: One more year with the Mariners at $4M.

Mike Sweeney

• Age: Seems like he should be close to 40, but he’ll be just 34 at the start of the 2008 season
• Career numbers: .299/.369/.492
• 2007 numbers: .260/.315/.404

Though only 34, Sweeney’s best days seem behind him. He’s had two straight years of injuries and poor production (.438 and .404 slugging). After hitting .333 and driving in 144 in 2000 at age 26, Sweeney seemed destined for stardom. His OPS+ actually increased in 2001 and 2002, from .523 to .542 to .563, but then the back problems really started limiting him. At this point, Sweeney can’t handle the rigors of playing in the field more than a handful of times, or even playing DH fulltime. He could fit with a club willing to take a chance that his bat might come to life (in other words a team not expecting to contend, such as Baltimore or Texas), or he could pinch hit in the NL. He’s got the mindset for pinch hitting, as he is a great student of pitchers and he can pick his brother’s brain. But, really, is a pinch hitter or part-time DH for the Orioles the way he wants to end his career? After all, he’s earned $71M in his career and can go out on his terms. Verdict: Hang ‘Em Up.

Nippon Ham Fighters Sign Inaba to New Deal

The Nippon Ham Fighters have signed OF Atsunori Inaba to a one-year deal worth 240 million yen (US $2.2 million). Inaba received a raise in salary of 95 million yen.

Yomiuri’s Nioka Salary Hits 200 Million Yen Mark

The Yomiuri Giants and shortstop Tomohiro Nioka have agreed to a new one-year contract worth 200 million yen ($2 million). Nioka is the second player in Giants history to eclipse the 200 million yen mark, with infielder Toshihisa Nishi (presently with the Yokohama BayStars) being the first. 

Marines and Nishioka Sign 3-Year Deal

The Chiba Lotte Marines and budding star infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka (23 years old) have agreed to a three year contract worth 500 million yen (US $4.5 million). The deal will also include attainable incentives and a signing bonus. 

Yu Darvish Becomes the Youngest 200 million Yen Player

The PL’s 2007 MVP and Sawamura Award winner Yu Darvish signed a one-year contract worth 200 million yen ($ 2 million) in base salary plus incentives and a signing bonus. The deal made the 21-year-old pitcher the youngest player ever to make 200 million yen. The Fighters gave Darvish a raise of 128 million yen after he posted a 2007 record of 15-5 with a 1.82 ERA and 210 strikeouts. Darvish had the best record in the NPB. If he doesn’t request to be posted for the US, he may well become the first NPB player to hit 1 billion yen/year mark within the next 5 years.

Sources: 12.23.2007 editions of the Nikkan Sports, Daiky Sports, Sports Hochi, Daily Sports, and Nippon Sports Newspapers; 12.22.2007 editions of the Nikkan Sports Newspaper / Sports Hochi Newspaper.

On January 8th, when the announcement is made as to who, if anyone, will be enshrined in the Hall of Fame next summer, I believe that two deserving players will finally, at long last, get the phone call they have been awaiting for more than a decade - reliever Rich “Goose” Gossage and outfielder Jim Rice. This article will focus on the former Red Sox slugger.

Last year, Rice received more votes than he had ever previously accumulated (346), although his percentage of votes actually diminished slightly due to the total number of ballots cast (from 64.8% in 2006 to 63.5% in 2007). But this year, in the aftermath of The Mitchell Report and the PED scandal, I believe many voters will re-visit the credentials of the Anderson, SC, native who unquestionably put up his power numbers without the use of steroids, HGH or similar substances.

Now, more than ever, it is time to celebrate the accomplishments of an offensive monster like Rice who, although imperfect, surely dominated his era with the bat. The official criteria for election to the Hall of Fame states that:

Voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character and contributions to the team(s) on which he played.

Many writers (the voters) have asserted that the unofficial interpretation of the above criteria requires that a player must demonstrate “sustained excellence” and/or “statistical dominance” at his position or within his league during his playing days as long as the duration of his career covers an extended period of time.

The primary arguments against Rice have been: 1) he wasn’t dominant for a sufficient period of time, and 2) he was less than adequate defensively. Let’s debunk those two arguments.

Dominance

Jim Rice played for sixteen seasons, had a career batting average of .298, with 382 HR and 1451 RBI, hit 30 HR on four occasions and knocked in 100 RBI on EIGHT occasions. He made the All-Star team eight times. From 1975 - 1983 he was as dominant an offensive force as the game knew. His career batting average fell below .300 only during the last year of his career when he struggled through his third consecutive season of poor statistical performance due to deteriorating eyesight – a problem which caused him to retire prematurely.

Kirby Puckett was elected to the Hall of Fame in 2001. He played for only twelve seasons, had a career batting average of .318, hit 207 HR and drove in 1085 runs, but he hit 30 HR exactly once and had 100 RBI only three times. Like Rice, his career was cut short due to problems with his eyesight.

Meaning no disrespect to Kirby (he was one of the nicest ballplayers I ever met), he was NOT a Hall-of-Famer. He was an excellent ballplayer and he was EXTREMELY POPULAR, and he was elected to the all-star game on ten occasions. But popularity is not a requirement for election to the HOF. In my opinion, HIS election to the Hall was a popularity contest and serves as one of the great mistakes by HOF voters, just as Rice’s exclusion is another noteworthy mistake.

And what about Sandy Koufax? Koufax was spectacularly DOMINANT for a four-year period. During those four years, he was as dominant as any pitcher has ever been for any period of time but, otherwise, his career was quite pedestrian and undeniably unspectacular. Koufax had a twelve-year career that can be broken into two statistical groupings; the first eight years (1955 - 62) and the last four years (1963 - 66). In the first eight years of his career, he was 68 – 60 with a 3.71 ERA over 1,131 2/3 IP. That’s solid for the era, but not approaching Hall-of-Fame material.

However, during the four years leading up to his retirement, Koufax was a brilliant 97 - 27, with a 1.86 ERA over 1,192 2/3 IP. I am NOT suggesting Koufax does not belong in the HOF. I am simply pointing out that, to be consistent, voters should not exclude Rice from HOF consideration because his period of dominance lasted ‘only’ eight years.

Kirby Puckett is in the Hall of Fame, and Sandy Koufax is in the Hall of Fame, but Jim Rice is not. Why? Because “Mr. Twin” and Koufax were extremely popular (beloved, even) players, whereas Jim Rice was not-so-well-loved during his career due to his often surly disposition.

PHOOEY! Excellence is excellence. And a sixteen year career, of which eight seasons could be considered as “dominant”, is long enough.

Fielding Prowess

Rick Ferrell had a .982 career fielding percentage and he is in the Hall of Fame.

Mike Schmidt had a .961 career fielding percentage and he is in the Hall of Fame.

Ted Williams had a .974 career fielding percentage and he is in the Hall of Fame.

Jim Rice had a career .980 fielding percentage and he is NOT in the Hall of Fame.

Nuff said!

A Case for the Hall

Jim Rice’s numbers are better than a slew of guys who have already made it to the Hall of Fame: George Brett, Gary Carter, Orlando Cepeda, Eddie Murray, Tony Perez, Robin Yount, etc.

His statistics suffered at the end of his career because he had eyesight problems and laser eye surgery was still a decade away. But during his heyday he was as feared as any hitter in baseball. If the premature end of a stellar career due to eyesight problems is not counted against Kirby Puckett, then it should not be counted against Jim Rice.

Jim won the MVP award in 1978 when he accumulated an astounding 406 total bases, the only American League slugger to accumulate 400+ bases from 1938 - present. The last guy to do it before Rice? Some guy named Joe DiMaggio, in 1937 (418 TB). Even the “Steroid Era” has yet to produce an AL hitter with more than 400 total bases. As Phil Rizzuto would have said: “How about that!”

Rice finished in the top five in the MVP voting four times in an five year span from 1975-1979. On the basis of 10-7-5-3-1 scoring for first thru fifth place, Rice accumulated 19 points during 75-79 far outpacing the runner-up (Freddy Lynn, with 13 points). If you extend the period out until 1983 (’75 - ‘83), then Rice accumulated 22 points on the 10-7-5-3-1 scale which is tied with George Brett for the most points during that nine-year span. How is THAT for domination?

Rice led the AL in homers three times (1977, 1978 and 1983). Since 1970, only Hall-of-Famer Reggie Jackson (4) and sure-fire HOFers Ken Griffey Jr. (4) and Alex Rodriguez (5) have led the American League in HR on more occasions. No one else led the American League more than twice. Hall-of-Famers George Brett and Robin Yount NEVER led the AL in HR. HOFer Eddie Murray led the league only once.

Jim Rice led the AL in RBI twice during his career (1978 and 1983). HOFers Reggie Jackson and Eddie Murray did it once each (Murray during the strike-shortened 1981 season). Alex Rodriguez has done it twice. Ken Griffey Jr. and Mark McGwire have done it once apiece. Again, HOFers George Brett and Robin Yount NEVER led the league in RBI.

According to the last “Hall of Fame Monitor” I saw (last year), Bill James had ranked Rice 82nd all-time in an analysis of a set of statistical components that includes batting, fielding, longevity and team performance. He ranks ahead of Hall-of-Famers Gary Carter, Orlando Cepeda, Joe Cronin, Carlton Fisk, Ralph Kiner, Willie McCovey, Brooks Robinson, Jackie Robinson, Duke Snider, Billy Williams and Robin Yount, among others.

Maybe Jim Rice never won the Nice-Guy of the Year Award, and maybe he WON’T ever win the award, but neither did/would Ty Cobb or Gary Carter or Steve Carlton or Bob Gibson.

Rice had a better batting average and more home runs than Tony Perez and Orlando Cepeda, and although he played seven fewer seasons than Perez he only had 201 fewer RBI. Yet both Perez and Cepeda are in the Hall of Fame.

Jim Rice is a Hall-of-Famer… period.

HOF voters need to celebrate his career and his accomplishments, this year more than ever! Maybe it is fate that THIS should be the year that his prowess should be recognized. Maybe Jim Rice will help to remind everyone affiliated with the game of baseball what true sluggers looked like once upon a time.

The San Diego Padres inked Mark Prior to a one-year incentive-laden contract on Thursday. Another strong move by the Padres, following low risk deals with free agents Randy Wolf and Glendon Rusch and the trade for Jim Edmonds.

A healthy Prior would give the Padres the following rotation:

1. Jake Peavy
2. Chris Young
3. Greg Maddux
4. Randy Wolf
5. Mark Prior

As insurance, the Padres have Rusch, Justin Germano and Clay Hensley. If Wolf and Prior are healthy (and that’s a big “if”), and Peavy, Young and Maddux produce as they did last year, the Padres could have the best starting staff in the National League, if not the Majors.

Now consider that the Padres bullpen was perhaps their strongest asset in 2007 – stronger than the starters. Here are last year’s relievers with over 40 innings pitched along with their ERA:

• Trevor Hoffman: 2.98
• Heath Bell: 2.02
• Clay Meredith: 3.50
• Doug Brocail: 3.05
• Kevin Cameron: 2.79 (who?)
• Justin Hampson: 2.70 (who?)
• Scott Linebrink: 3.80 (expendable and traded)

What makes this production more impressive is that these players (excluding Linebrink) as a whole, made less than $9M last year – and $7M of that was for Hoffman. And even more impressive is how they obtained some of them:

• Heath Bell: traded by the NY Mets with Royce King for Jon Adkins and Ben Johnson
• Clay Meredith: trade by the Boston Red Sox with Josh Bard for Doug Mirabelli (ouch!)
• Doug Brocail: signed as a free agent from the Texas Rangers (no draft pick compensation)
• Kevin Cameron: selected from the Minnesota Twins in the 2006 Rule V draft
• Justin Hampson: selected off waivers from the Colorado Rockies after the 2006 season

The Padres as an organization know what they’re doing when it comes to putting together a bullpen. Great bang for the buck.

So where does this leave the Padres for 2008? The pitching staff, from 1-11 could be the best in baseball. But the offense needs to improve for the Padres to be true contenders for the NL pennant. With the signing of 2B Tadahito Iguchi and trade for CF Jim Edmonds, the Padres line-up looks like the following:

1. Giles (RF)
2. Iguchi (2B)
3. Edmonds (CF)
4. Gonzalez (1B)
5. Kouzmanoff (3B)
6. Greene (SS)
7. Hairston (LF)
8. Bard/Barrett (Catcher)

There are some big questions in the line-up:

• Can Edmonds be healthy enough for 450+ at bats?
• Can Kouzmanoff maintain his hot hitting from the 2nd half of 2007?
• Can Greene increase that batting average and walks just a little bit?
• Is Hairston the real deal?

I think the keys to the Padres 2008 season will be Kouzmanoff and Hairston. Kouzmanoff went .228/.290/.384 in the first half and .317/.366/.524 in the second half. I think we’re more likely to see the second half numbers wouldn’t be surprised by a .310/.375/.540 line.

Scott Hairston devoured pitchers in 87 at bats last year, to the tune of .287/.337/.644 after coming over from Arizona for Leo Rosales. The 27-year old struggled in four in five stints with the Diamondbacks, but his career minor league numbers of .322/.396/.571 suggest he could be real. Ideally, Hairston produces enough in 2008 to push Greene down to seventh in the order.

I think the Padres will use the first half of the season to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of their line-up. If Edmonds gets hurt or Hairston fails to produce, I see the Padres using some low minor leaguers to trade for some offensive to get them over the hump. The NL West could be an interesting race between San Diego, Arizona and Colorado.

The list of free agents that are still available is unique this year in that there are a lot of unemployed players who are likely to be on the Hall of Fame ballot some day. Here’s Part II of a look at those players. Part I discussed Mike Piazza, Sammy Sosa, Barry Bonds and Jeff Cirillo. Is it time to hang ‘em up?

Rondell White

• Age: 36 at the start of the 2008 season
• Career numbers: .284/.336/.462
• 2007 numbers: .174/.235/.321 in 109 at bats

White has never lived up to the expectations from his Montreal days. His career high in RBIs is 87, and he’s slugged over .500 in just three of his 15 seasons. He had a good, but injured-filled 2005, when he went .313/.348/.489 for Detroit. But in 2006 and 2007 with the Twins, he combined for just 11 HRs and 58 RBIs in 446 at bats, while collecting $5M. His numbers from 2007 indicate a serious decline, and he isn’t going to get healthier at age 36. Someone will likely take a flier on him with a non-roster invitation to Spring Training, but they should use the at bats to look at someone with more potential. Verdict: Hang ‘Em Up.

Darin Erstad

• Age: 34 at the start of the 2008 season
• Career numbers: .284/.339/.411
• 2007 numbers: .248/.310/.335

Erstad’s 2000 season (.355/.409/.541) was a BradyAnderson-esque outlier. In the seven seasons since, he’s really been a .265/.318/.365 center fielder/first baseman – and he’s made $40M+. At that price, he has offered negative value. Still he’s won a World Series with Anaheim, and he’s got a great, tough-nosed attitude. He’d be of value to someone like the Rays or Royals who need to mentor young players, but only with a non-roster invitation or small guaranteed contract. Verdict: One more year with the Rays.

Julio Franco

• Age: 49 at the start of the 2008 season
• Career numbers: .298/.365/.417
• 2007 numbers: .222/.321/.289

The George Foreman of baseball. He disappeared from MLB for a three year period – from 1998 to 2000 (with the exception of one at bat for the Rays in 1999 – how did that happen?). And he didn’t join the Braves in 2001 until September 1. Had he played full seasons from 1998-2001, he be close to 3,000 hits, 1500 runs, 200 home runs and 1,400 RBIs. I’d love to see him reach his goal of playing at age 50, but it doesn’t look like he has anything left in the tank. Maybe some team will see value in bringing him in to Spring Training as a non-roster invitee to act as a player/coach/mentor, but they’d be better off just making him a coach. Verdict: Hang ‘Em Up and start coaching.

Arizona Diamondbacks

You are quite wise for selling Valverde at his highest value and acquiring Haren. I give unto you a 40 save season for Mr. Pena, who will have more saves in 2008 than Valverde.

Colorado Rockies

I sense a bit of a downturn after the magic of 2007, but that wouldn’t be fair after all your hard work. So I’m giving you two things. First, 3.45, as in the ERA of Ubaldo Jimenez over the full 2008 season. What you do with that ERA is up to your offense. Second, I’ll give you a trade that no one saw coming: Todd Helton and Brian Fuentes for Kevin Youkilis, Jon Lester and Jed Lowrie. Youkilis will exceed offensively what Helton would do a much better rate. Lester will give the rotation another plus young arm, and Lowrie can be the second baseman after 2008.

San Diego Padres

I’ll give you a line of .295/.370/.545 for new all-star Kevin Kouzmanoff, to make the Barfield trade look like a steal. Kouzmanoff, Gonzalez and Greene give you a nice 3-4-5. As a stocking stuffer, I give you a gem of a season by the man named Stauffer.

Los Angeles Dodgers

A nice signing in Jones, but please don’t put Pierre in left. Matt Kemp and Delwyn Young deserve to start in left right. So I’ll make a trade for you with your rivals the Giants. Juan Pierre to the Bay for three sacks of hay. You never know – the Giants just might bite.

San Francisco Giants

A big old lump of coal. You and the Marlins will be competing for the major’s worst record in 2008.

My presents for the NL Central:

Chicago Cubs

Full health for Kerry Wood, to give you the major’s best 1-2-3 bullpen punch: Wood/Marmol/Howry. I’ll also throw in the gift of patience. If you don’t trade Sean Gallagher, then keep him in the minors for the full season and keep his pitch count down. He’ll replace Dempster in the rotation in 2009.

Milwaukee Brewers

I don’t understand you. You’ve put together some of the best young talent in the game (Fielder, Braun, Hart Gallardo and maybe Hardy as well), so you are to be commended. But your bullpen, for the love of the North Pole. Gagne, Turnbow, Mota and Torres are a recipe for disaster. Rather than mask the symptoms by giving you a Sam’s Club tub of Tums, I will provide a cure and give you a “Special General Manager of Bullpen Construction” who will be autonomous of GM Melvin.

St. Louis Cardinals

A hard hat – for when Joel Pineiro and Braden Looper implode. Sorry, guys, you might have a really bad team in 2008.

Houston Astros

More real estate – as in the ability to push back the fences. With Woody Williams, Wandy Rodriguez Chris Sampson, Brandon Backe and whomever, there’s going to be a lot of shots launched in Houston in 2008. Good move in getting Valverde, but after Oswalt there isn’t much there.

Cincinnati Reds

I’ve always been partial to the Reds – red is my favorite color, after all. I’m going to give you the gift of good Coffey – enough to push Weathers back to the 7th inning and setting up a good Weathers/Coffey/Cordero bullpen.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Patience. To the new management team, my apologies for the mess you inherited. You need to exhibit great patience, as the turnaround is going to take some time. And don’t trade Jason Bay – you won’t get enough in return. Wait a year.

What I gave the teams of the NL East:

Philadelphia Phillies

You showed lots of energy during the season and wisdom so far in the offseason (Lidge, Jenkins and Taguchi), but you need another good starter. Not much is left, however, as I have already given Johan Santana to the Angels and Bedard to the Mariners. I’m left with giving you an arm with a chance, and that is Ervin Santana. Perhaps a move to the NL, though it will be via a hitters’ park and a change of scenery will be his cure.

New York Mets

Mark Prior and Bartolo Colon for the Mets and a golden parachute for Omar and Willie should they not provide at least 20 wins combined. The lack of pitching will be the death of you – again.

Atlanta Braves

A big year from Rafael Soriano to solidify the backend of the bullpen. No more Bob Wickmans! Soriano has been dominating in three of his four full seasons. He’s ready to close.

Washington Nationals

A big season from catcher Jesus Flores – 2006 rule 5 pick up from the Mets. He’ll be just 23 next year and should put up better numbers than ex-backstop Brian Schneider. Plus with Young, Dukes and Milledge, you need some Jesus around.

Florida Marlins

A lump of coal. If you can’t make the financials work to field a competitive team, then give it to someone else.

Tyson Whipple: NO for Rice

Hall of Fame:

• A structure housing memorials to famous or illustrious individuals usually chosen by a group of electors
• A group of individuals in a particular category (as a sport) who have been selected as particularly illustrious

Let’s get something out of the way right off the bat: it is an honor just to make the ballot for the Hall. The fact that a group of people thought you were a good enough player to be debated on your merits as one of the game’s best is a remarkable achievement. Knowing and feeling all of the above, I annually come across one name on the ballot that really tears at me: Jim Rice. I always liked Rice as a player; he was a good hitter surrounded by some pretty good talent, slugging in a good hitting ball park.

The Baseball Hall of Fame has a slogan that reads:

Preserving History, Honoring Excellence, Connecting Generations

Here is an institution built on the backs of the pioneers who helped and continue to help weave the fabric of the game we enjoy today. Can there be anyone more famous than Babe Ruth? You want illustrious? I give you The Yankee Clipper, Joe DiMaggio. The same man who had a 56 game hitting streak and married Marilyn Monroe in the same lifetime. The point to all of this is that this is a sacred and treasured resting place for the games greatest. This isn’t a hang out for the so goods and the almost greats, and letting the Hall become that is something of an injustice.

The idea of being elected to the Hall speaks to your contribution to the game as one of the very BEST players in the history of the sport. No, not everyone is Gehrig or Teddy Williams, but actually being elected into the Hall means that you are one of the very best to ever play your position or you have changed the game in a way that you leave a lasting impression that ripples through history forever (i.e. Monte Irvin).

When I think of Jim Rice, no HOF numbers jump out at me. He doesn’t have 500 HR, he doesn’t have 3000 hits and there is no need for a whole wall to store his 1978 MVP award and two Silver Slugger awards. While, yes, he was voted into the All Star game eight times, and he was in the top five for MVP voting five times, he only came away with the award after his remarkable 1978 season.

Jim Rice assembled a really GOOD career. His claim to fame statistically are his 382 HR, 1451 RBI and his career .502 SLG – all numbers which are more than respectable. Rice’s career feels all too familiar to me, resembling another LF, one that surely doesn’t feel HOF worthy, Moises Alou.

Career Stats

• HR RBI BA SLG OPS
• Rice 382 1451 .298 .502 .854
• Alou 332 1278 .303 .517 .886

H/R Splits (Career)

Alou HR RBI BA SLG OPS

• H 187 692 .312 .557 .940
• R 145 586 .295 .480 .836
• Diff -42 -106 -.017 -.077 -.104

Rice HR RBI BA SLG OPS

• H 208 802 .320 .546 .920
• R 174 649 .277 .459 .789
• Diff -34 -153 -.043 -.087 -.131

The numbers are close enough to say they are very similar. Sure Rice has more HR and RBI, but Alou out slugged, has a better BA and a better OPS. The Home and Road splits for Rice don’t do him any justice, and of course there is no need to make an argument for Alou since no one is talking HOF for him.

I got a lot of flack for my Todd Helton article because I never mentioned H/R splits with him playing in Coors. And yes there are some big differences in Helton’s H/R splits, but Helton still has slugged .502 away from Coors (which happens to be Rice’s career AVG), his .295 BA is three points lower than Rice’s career AVG and Helton’s away .896 OPS is higher than Rice’s career AVG by 42 points.

Even away from Coors Helton is a better hitter than Rice was with Fenway. I’m not making a case against Rice per say, but more of a case for others that are certainly not HOF locks, which is looking like Rice more and more… not a lock.

• OPS Plus Runs Created
• Rice (1975-88) 128 AVG 96.85 AVG
• Alou (1992-98, 00-07) 128 AVG 88.46 AVG

OPS Plus is a player’s OPS adjusted for the park and the time in which the player played. It creates a better look at how good the player was offensively in respect to his given era and also allows us to compare players of deferent times equally. Rice’s career OPS Plus of 128 is ranked 154th all time and his 1978 MVP season of 157 ranks 528th all time for players that qualified for the batting title. 1978 brings us his finest year for Runs Created, and his best of 147 ranks 917th all time.

Even if you judged Rice on his finest season as a player, it still falls short of being Hall Of Fame material. Rice was good for 8.39 RC a season more than Alou. Over the course of a season that’s a shade over 1 RC a month. Enough to say he was a much more productive player than Alou? Again, are these numbers and rankings HOF worthy? A closer look at each players stats on a 162 Game AVG.

162 AVG HR RBI BA SLG OBP

• Alou 28 107 .303 .517 .369
• Rice 30 113 .298 .502 .352

It basically comes down to this, if you still feel that Jim Rice is Hall Of Fame worthy after all you have read, then fine, I can accept that. But if Rice gets a nod into the good old boy club, Mr. Alou can’t be far behind him. Remember, Alou still has time to play and he will eventually surpass Rice in certain offensive categories like Runs Created and possibly HR’s. When it’s all said and done, Moises Alou very well could have a better offensive career than Rice, and I’m just not ready to say that Moises Alou is a Hall of Fame Left Fielder.

To the teams of Major League Baseball, here are your Christmas presents:

AL EAST

Boston Red Sox

A $100 donation in your name to a less fortunate team – the Tampa Bay Rays. Given your riches and success on and off the field, there is little more you need. May you spread holiday cheer to all around you, regardless of their bank account size. Next year, you may see a better gift if you please remove the “Sox Appeal” show from the air. Good grief.

New York Yankees

A functional organizational chart. Each year, I don’t know who I should direct the gift to. Now it’s even worse. Hank, Hal or George? Brian or Randy? Maybe Joe Girardi? Let us know who’s in charge.

Toronto Blue Jays

Three more years of Victor Zambrano. Ho! Ho! Ho! That’s Santa’s sense of humor. J I wouldn’t wish that upon any one. The real gift? I have given you the wisdom not to bat Vernon Wells leadoff. Such a waste of talent.

Baltimore Orioles

Santa’s sleigh is not big enough, nor are my reindeer strong enough to carry all that is needed to make the Orioles and their fans happy. The best gift has already been given, and that is the hiring of Andy MacPhail. What I can offer now is next best, which is Mr. Angelos leaving Andy alone. I’ve thrown in a stocking stuffer of a Jay Gibbons retirement.

Tampa Bay Rays

The wisdom to not give Casey Fossum 76 innings (and 65 innings). Wait – that’s what I forgot to give you last year. My bad. Seriously, Santa appreciates the effort by the Rays front office to improve their team, so I’m going to be especially nice. I’m going to trade Rocco Baldelli, Al Reyes and Jason Hammel to the Giants for Matt Cain. Hey, don’t doubt Santa’s power. Last year my gift to the Giants was telling the Pirates that Matt Morris was going to win 20 games in 2008 – he just needed to play for a bad team. Ho! Ho! Ho!

AL CENTRAL

Cleveland Indians

What a year you had! I love Fausto Carmona – he should have won the CY Young. Everyone doubted my gift to the Indians last year (45 saves for Joe Borowski), so don’t be doubters this year when I say I’m giving them Erik Bedard for Jeremy Sowers and prospects. Gut the system, I say. With Sabathia, Carmona and Bedard, you’ll win the AL.

Detroit Tigers

You shouldn’t be expecting much, not after getting Miguel Cabrera. But I’ll give a nice gift anyway – and it’s Fernando Rodney becoming the dominating closer we all expected.

Minnesota Twins

You almost got a lump of coal for accumulating some of the worst hitters in the majors last year (Nick Punto & .271 SLG, Jeff Cirillo/.386, Jason Tyner/.355, Rondell White/.321. But you realized the errors of your ways and upgraded at all those positions. So to reward good behavior, I’m giving you good behavior and another 20 walks for Delmon Young.

Chicago White Sox

It’s all about the bullpen. I’m giving you the good health of Bobby Jenks. That declining K/9 IP ratio scares me. From 11.45 in 2005, to 10.33 in 2006 and then 7.75 last year. And since you need more than one reliever, as last year demonstrated, I’m giving you a 2.85/1.05 year from David Aardsma.

Kansas City Royals

Santa doesn’t much like Jose Guillen. Always on the naughty list. So I’m not happy with the Royals signing him. But I appreciate the Glass family’s decision with Guillen and Meche before him not to pocket all the revenue sharing money they they’ve been getting, so I’ll give them the gift of not having Brian Bannister blow up like he would otherwise would. Mark him down for 8 and 15 with a 5.25 ERA without my help as the league catches up to him, or 13-11 with a 3.94 ERA with my help.

AL WEST

Angels

First and foremost, I’m giving you a better team name: the California Angels. The way it used to be was better. You are an Erik Bedard or Johan Santana away from even odds with the Red Sox to win the AL, therefore the World Series. Bedard hasn’t been around long enough to prove that he can be counted on as a true ace, so I’m going to give you Santana and Neshek for Kendrick, Wood, Weaver and Santana. Big price, but big reward.

Seattle Mariners

A gift exchange receipt for Carlos Silva. What are you thinking? Send that money (in the form of acquiring bad contracts such as Huff and Gibbons) and some prospects to the O’s for Bedard. As a stocking stuffer, I’m throwing in lasik eye surgery for Sexson.

Oakland A’s

Health for Rich Harden, Huston Street, Bobby Crosby and Eric Chavez – that could be enough to keep you in contention. Just maybe.

Texas Rangers

The concept of pitching. Guys – you need some decent pitching to have a chance. Here’s a scary thought: the lowest ERAs from Rangers with over 30 innings in 2007 were Eric Gagne (2.16), Akinori Otsuka (2.51) and Ron Mahay (2.77). What do they all have in common? They’ll be playing elsewhere in 2008.

Editor’s Note: This year’s Hall of Fame selection process features a few names whose electability has generated a great deal of debate, perhaps none more so than Jim Rice. Three of our writers present their arguments below on Rice. First up is Will Hoover.

Hoover: YES for Rice

The one positive thing that came out of the Mitchell Report is that it probably solidifies Jim Rice’s overdue entrance into the Hall of Fame. Rice was one of the most dangerous hitters of his generation – an opposing pitcher’s nightmare – and he played in an era when 40 homers really meant something. Power and average are rare combinations, and hitting for both over a 12-year span (1975-1986) puts Rice in even more rarified company. Yet, as a player, Rice was never a media darling. He could be aloof, rude, and even downright mean, and because he played in media-mad Boston, his personality might be a driving reason why he’s not enshrined in Cooperstown.

To be fair to a man, you’ve got run the bases in his shoes. In 1975, Rice’s rookie season, the city of Boston was far from the lovable Red Sox Nation of today. The busing riots were in full swing.  Seeing a bunch of young urban kids being accosted didn’t exactly endear Rice to Beantown. And being a young black player on a team in a predominantly white city can be an intimidating situation, too.

Another issue Rice often had to deal with was the vindictive, backstabbing Boston media, with whom his relationship was always rocky. Unlike the professional media management today’s players enjoy, Rice got zero media protection from Boston’s then ownership. In Rice’s day, players couldn’t simply clam up and pull a Manny being Manny. In other words, Rice continues to be unfairly punished because of his people skills. Is how well a player makes nice with reporters really the defining characteristic of a Hall-of-Famer?

Nobody disputes Rice’s ferocious hitting prowess. From 1977-79, Rice had three straight years of 39 plus HRs, 100 plus runs and RBIs, and 200 plus hits. His OPS+ was 147, 157, 154, and his RC was 136, 148 and 138. In his 1978 MVP season, he had 406 total bases, the most in the AL since 1937. In 1986, perhaps the finest season of his 16-year career, he helped carry his team to the World Series (39 2B, 110 RBI, BA .324) and finished third on the MVP ballot for the second time in his career.

For most of his career, Rice dominated offensive statistics, with decade-long stretches of leading the MLB in at-bats, hits, RBIs and total bases, and even longer runs as the AL leader in games, at-bats, runs, hits, home runs, RBIs, slugging percentage, OPS, runs created, total bases and extra base hits.

If consistency counts, then Rice scores again, big time. Until his last season (where he finished with a .298 BA), Rice maintained a .300 average, with 200 or more hits in four different seasons. For a player of his power, Rice was underappreciated for his speed – he led the AL in triples once and finished in the top 10 four times, averaging six triples a season for his career and eight steals a season during his first six years. Remember, we’re talking Red Sox here, not what you’d call a running team. Rice’s totals were often enough to lead the Sox.

Defensively, Rice was better than he is remembered. Many people recall the Jim Rice who DH’d in his final couple of seasons, not the Jim Rice who played the majority of his games in left field. Rice’s fielding metrics reveal a player who made few errors (.980 FA lifetime); he once even led the AL with 21 OF assists. His fielding abilities did not diminish with age — he maintained a .977 FA, with 16 and 12 assists in his last two seasons as a regular outfielder (1986-87).

There are several deserving players in the Hall of Fame, a few whose careers paralleled Rice’s. For example, Kirby Puckett, only played 12 years, but his career was cut short due to an injury. If Rice had been injured and had to retire early, should that give him more consideration for the Hall? I do not think so. Puckett’s career was cut short by glaucoma, but what’s the real difference here, besides position played?  Similar stats, similar short career, both .300 hitters with one guy having the higher BA and the other tops in power and production.  One guy was chubby and likeable then tragically dies; the other one made enemies of the media only to survive to be punished.

Puckett BA .318, HR’s 207, RBI’s 1085, Hits 2304, Runs 1071

Playing longer shouldn’t help someone’s cause either, if you can no longer perform at a level where you are helping your team, it shouldn’t count towards your longevity of career greatness. How long did Sandy Koufax play for? (Again, I am not saying that Koufax isn’t better or more deserving of the Hall, just that the shortness of his career was never used against him.)

Using www.Baseball-Reference.com Hall of Fame criteria, the Black Ink for Rice says yes (average HOF ~ 27/Rice 33), Gray Ink says yes (average HOF ~ 144/Rice 176), HOF Monitor say yes (likely HOF > 100/Rice 146.5), and HOF Standards barely says no (average HOF ~ 50/Rice 43). He would be barely sneaking in and wouldn’t be dragging down the overall quality of HOF left fielders the way Tony Perez and Orlando Cepeda have dragged down the overall quality of first basemen inducted into the Hall.

Rice would fit somewhere in the middle, which isn’t top five or bottom five, but would be somewhere in between.

There are 20 HOF left fielders. Yaz, Ted Williams, and Stan Musial are in the top echelon so let’s look at the remaining LFers (17). Here are their average numbers compared to Rice’s career:

• G   AB     R       H     HR  XBH RBI  BB  SB AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS
• 2099 8009 1372 2490  196 765  1243 755 251 .310 .375 .477 .851 HOF   
• 2089 8225  1249  2452 382 834 1451 670 58 .298 .352 .502 .854 JIM RICE

First of all, there is one obvious stat that is a negative: stolen bases. Rice was not a base stealer, so he’s got about one-fifth of the Hall average in career steals. He also falls short of the average total of runs scored by 125. But he makes up for that shortfall, and then some, by exceeding the HOF average in RBI by more than 200. He’s got a slightly lower batting average, and he has a significantly lower OBP, but his 25-point advantage in slugging allows him to post the same OPS as an average Hall of Famer. The other numbers are an extremely close match, or actually favor Rice. He’s within 2% of the average in games, plate appearances, at bats, hits, and runs created.

In all of the power categories, he enjoys a distinct edge over the average (9% more extra-base hits; 9% more total bases; 95% more homers). It’s clear that using the raw totals of the group he is supposed to be compared to, Rice stacks up very well. He played a career of average Hall length and posted offensive numbers that matched or exceeded most of the averages of Hall members. How is Rice not worthy when he is comparable to 83% of the HOF LFers?

Of the 20 LFers currently in the Hall only 5 have more career HRs than Rice and only 8 have more career RBI. What about park factors, too? Some think Fenway is a benefit…well I say it was also a detriment. How many line drive doubles off of that wall would have been HRs in other ball parks? It’s safe to say that out of his 207 home doubles he could have squeaked out another 18 if that wall wasn’t there.

What was Tony Perez’ EqA? And when was his decade of dominance?  Sure he played forever, but he was hardly ever a standout at his position.  In 22 seasons, he had maybe 3 great years. Was Rice that much worse than, say, Billy Williams? Or Orlando Cepeda?  At some point, where does Rice stack up against some of his contemporaries who ARE in the Hall? From 75’ to 86’ only Eddie Murray had similar stats.

Another comparable is Duke Snider. Snider played for the Dodgers, Mets and Giants from parts of 1947 and ‘48 and full seasons from ‘49 to ‘64.  He made the Hall of Fame because of NINE years he had with Brooklyn from ‘49 to ‘57.  From ‘58 on he never had a real big season except for ‘59 when he hit 308, 23 homers, and 88 RBI’s – decent but not earth shaking. He was never the same player after the Dodgers left Brooklyn after the 1957 season.  He got his knee operated on after that campaign and it never healed right. 

I would also like to add that today’s ballparks, for the most part, are HR launching pads.

As a matter of fact the MLB average for HRs while Jim Rice played was between 9-14 and during that same time Rice averaged 23 HR for every 500 AB. He more than doubled the average of MLB during most of the time he played and judging him against the peers he played with and against during his career should be the proper way to evaluate Rice.

Coming out of this bleak era of chemically-induced power, Jim Rice is one guy who deserves the respect of writers, fans and baseball executives alike. (A look at the guy in the broadcast booth suggests he wasn’t juicing in his playing days – this is a large man.)

Virtually every contemporary of Jim Rice who should be in the Hall is already there. Jim played before the current expansion, the mediocre pitching, rampant performance enhancement, and the mass building of all the retro ballparks. He had six tremendous seasons, one of them being a top echelon and six very good seasons. He should be a definite a Hall of Famer.

So let’s finally put Rice, the man, where he truly belongs… in Cooperstown.

“The injury bug hit us this year” or “it’s just been a run of bad luck” are some excuses voiced by losing teams throughout the baseball season. The clubs that continue to contend year after year (Angels, Yankees, Braves, Dodgers) have some way of identifying and projecting the part of the game that has to do with injuries.

The following evaluation and projection has been made by a collective effort of professional scouts using resources such as live game analysis, historical video comparison, statistical evaluation and injury history.

The risk category is defined by the level of risk each particular pitcher (closer) has with respect to injuring his throwing arm while delivering pitches during live game competition. The players are put into categories based on a comparative analysis between the proper fundamentals of a pitching delivery from the windup and the stretch to each particular closer’s current pitching mechanics.  

Don’t get me wrong, I love the Red Sox, but the way they’re run these days has started to make me question who they really are. Since Henry, Lucchino, Epstein and crew have been running the team, the Sox have won 2 championships, sold out every game, and made a lot of Bostonians happy. But at what price? Their payroll has gone from about $100M in 2003 to around $143M in 2007. If they trade for and sign Santana, it could jump to about $170M in 2008.

Baseball just doesn’t seem like it’s fair anymore when the Sox’s payroll is six times that of the lowly Devil Rays, $20M more than Pittsburg, Washington, Florida, and Tampa combined, and about $30M more than the third highest. Have you noticed that Sox fans don’t carp the Yankees for having such a high payroll anymore? It’s probably because the Sox are right up there with them now.

The Sox can afford to throw money away on guys like Drew and Lugo; guys who produce the equivalent of half or less than half their pay because they have so much more money than everyone but the Yankees. Teams like Tampa, Florida, Oakland and Minnesota just can’t afford to make those mistakes, and if they are ever going to go anywhere, they’d need the best and most mature prospects in the league. In the case of Tampa and Florida, they basically will never have a shot under the present system.

Maybe the Evil Empire is expanding, or maybe the players’ union has gotten to an uncontrollable point. I don’t know, but it’s hard to take. Sox fans are fiercely loyal, more loyal than any other group I’ve ever encountered, but what used to be a local, New England fan base has now expanded throughout the country. People want to be associated with that winning, rich image. Just like with the Yankees in the 90s, people with the most remote of associations with the city and area are calling themselves Red Sox fans now.

While I don’t want to push them away, the question is: why aren’t they supporting their own teams? Maybe the Sox’s success and dollars are just going to lead to greater and greater disparity between the Sox and these other teams. If they get Santana and move the salary to the $170M range, experts say the Sox could win three championships over the next six years. That would be incredible, but is that the way it should really happen? Should I really only see yuppies in the box seats because they’re $120+ a pop?

I’ve lived in the Boston area all my life and I can guarantee that I’ll support the Sox the rest of it, but at what price are we able to wear shirts that say, “Boston Red Sox: 2007 World Series Champions.” Is the sport being destroyed by the ignorance and complacency of the fans in the face of incredible greed and power from the players? Do we really want to call the United States Red Sox Nation because of how much the organization can spend?

Cincinnati trades CF Josh Hamilton to Texas for SP Edison Volquez and SP Daniel Herrera

When I read about this trade, my immediate thought was that the Reds knew something. They either knew there is a good chance Hamilton is going to re-lapse. Fair or not, that’s what came to my mind, because from a pure baseball standpoint, I don’t think this trade makes sense for the Reds.

We all know about Hamilton’s past troubles. But last year, his first in the bigs, he showed he has the potential to be a truly special player. At age 26 he produced .292/.368/.554 – and that’s after just 50 professional at bats in the previous five years. In 298 at bats, he hit 19 home runs, drove in 47 and scored 52 times. Oh – and he made just $380K last year.

What do I mean by “truly special”? I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hamilton improve on his 2007 percentages to the tune of .300/.380/.575, eventually maxing out at 40 home runs and 120 RBIs. And really, staying at his 2007 numbers would be just fine for Texas. His .554 slugging percentage would have tied him for 11th in the National League with teammate Adam Dunn had Hamilton had enough bats to qualify. That’s a higher percentage than Aramis Ramirez, David Wright, Carlos Lee, Carlos Beltran and Lance Berkman.

So why did the Reds do this trade? Because, according to GM Wayne Krivsky, they a) had outfield depth from which to deal and b) want to add to their young starting pitcher depth. Let’s look at these points.

The Reds have plenty of outfield options NOW, but are they good options and what will the options be after 2008?

Adam Dunn is a productive left fielder, but he’ll be gone after 2008. Griffey can be productive in right field, assuming he’s healthy, and they have to start him until his contract is up. That means that with Hamilton gone, they need to find a center fielder for 2008 and beyond, and then a left fielder for 2009 and beyond. Here are the candidates:

Ryan Freel should not be starting. He’s a good number four or five outfielder, but he has a career slugging percentage of .378 and has had trouble staying healthy, more than offsetting his defense and base stealing.

Norris Hopper also should not be starting. What, you might ask? He hit .329 in his rookie season, with a .371 on base percentage! True, but he was also 28 years old as a rookie and had a .388 slugging percentage. Going deeper into the numbers, here is Hopper’s production over the course of 10 minor league seasons: .290/.341/.337 – with three home runs in 3,390 at bats. Think Jason Tyner. Don’t think starting outfielder. He’s a number five outfielder.

What about Chris Dickerson? I don’t see any statistical evidence he’s a starting outfielder either. He’ll be 26 years old next year and, in five minor league seasons, has produced .255/.355/.403. That just doesn’t project well to the majors.

So we’re left with Jay Bruce. Fortunately for the Reds, he’s a completely different case. He’s just 21 and has produced .299/.362/.543 in 1,157 at bats over three minor league seasons. He projects to being a good to premium outfielder, either in center or right. The question is if he should be in the majors in 2008, given that he has just 50 games above AA.

If I’m the Reds GM, I would keep Hamilton and would project the following outfield:

2008

• LF: Dunn
• CF: Hamilton
• RF: Griffey

2009

• LF: Bruce
• CF: Hamilton
• RF: Griffey

Instead, the Reds project to have the following:

2008

• LF: Dunn
• CF: Bruce (if the Reds push him) or Hopper/Freel
• RF: Griffey

2009

• LF: Freel/Hopper
• CF: Bruce
• RF: Griffey

The projected outfield with Hamilton is much stronger than the one without him. So the Reds must have felt they got a lot of value in order to justify the projected drop-off. Let’s look at what they got in return.

Ed Volquez is a right-handed starting pitcher who will be 24 years old at the start of the 2008 season. In 2007 he had a 4.50 ERA and 1.441 WHIP in 34 innings for Texas. In 80 innings over three seasons for the Rangers, Volquez has a 7.20 ERA and 1.913 WHIP. Those are dreadful numbers, but probably the result of Texas rushing him.

In 551 career minor league innings over five seasons, Volquez has a 3.69 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. In 2007 he was 14-6 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, with 166 strikeouts in 144.2 innings. These are good numbers, and I can’t say I’ve seen Volquez pitch myself pitch, but he is at most a good prospect at this point.

How many successful pitchers do you know who are 5’7″, 145 pounds? I’m guessing none. The Reds are hoping Daniel Herrera is the first. Yes, that’s right, Herrera is David Eckstein on the mound. He has only 125.1 innings pitched over two seasons, but the 23-year old has produced to the tune of a 2.59 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 147 strikeouts. The stats say he is a legitimate prospect, but the height says he has limited potential.

Bottom line? In my opinion they traded a center fielder who can be special (and who has already shown he can produce at a high level in the majors) for a good pitching prospect and a decent pitching prospect. That doesn’t make sense to me, and, again, makes me thinks Krivsky knows something.

This trade also runs counter to the apparent “win-now” strategy that prompted the Francisco Cordero signing. Unless Volquez emerges next year and wins 13-17 games, the Reds have made themselves worse for 2008.

Or maybe adding more pitching prospects enables the Reds to put together a better package for Erik Bedard. And that would make sense – as long as Freel or Hopper aren’t manning centerfield.

As a side note, I commend Rangers GM Jon Daniels for this move. He’s under tremendous pressure to improve their pitching, but he rightly saw that trading two prospects for Hamilton was the right thing to do.

Alex Cabrera and Adam Riggs Deny Steroid Use

Both Cabrera and Riggs categorically denied reports that they had at one point used performance enhancing drugs as mentioned in the Mitchell Report. Cabrera openly denied acquiring or using steroids on the official website of the Leones del Caracas and Adam Riggs spoke with the Swallows executives and unequivocally denied reports that he had purchased or used steroids as reported.

Most NPB Players Have Doubts Regarding Post-Retirement Life

In a recent inquiry survey conducted by the NPB Players Organization, 75.8% of players have doubts or insecurities regarding their post-baseball career. The players are concerned about: 

• Choice of a new career (75.2%)
• Income (68.5%)
• Loss of challenge/motivation (25.7%)

In order to cope with the players’ post-retirement concerns, NPB has created a support system that will provide counseling and re-employment support services to all needy players.

Chiba Lotte Marines Naruse Gets Nice Pay Raise

The Chiba Lotte Marines ace Yoshihisa Naruse, who finished the season with a 16-1 record, 1.81 ERA and a winning percentage of .941, has signed a new contract that gives him a 54 million yen (US$470,000) pay raise to push his salary to 70 million yen (US$615,000), a very good salary for a fourth year pitcher.

Softbank’s Closer Mahara Gets Pay Raise

Softbank Hawks closer Takahiro Mahara, who finished the season with the most saves in the league (38) and posted a ERA of 1.470, signed a new contract that gives him a 75 million yen (US$655,000) pay raise to increase his salary to 155 million yen (US$1.36M).

Nippon Ham Fighters Darvish Looks For 200 million Yen Deal

Nippon Ham Fighters star and 2007’s MVP Yu Darvish definitely wants a huge pay raise of 130 million (US$1.14M) for the 2008 season. The increase could push Darvish’s salary close to 200 million yen (US$1.75M).

Hanshin Re-signs Williams and Acquires RHP Atchison

Hanshin Tigers team president Nobuo Minami announced that, even with the rumors of steroid abuse, the club has picked up the option for Jeff Williams (second year of the two-year deal). Also Minami announced the Tigers have signed Scott Atchison (ex-San Francisco Giants’ relief pitcher) to a two-year deal worth $2 million.

Marines Signs Washington Nationals Abreu

The Chiba Lotte Marines have announced that the club has signed Dominican right hander Winston Abreu to a one-year contract worth 46 million yen (US $420,000).

The Yomiuri Giants and Ramirez Agree to 1 Billion Yen Deal

A pending physical is all that stands in the way of the Yomiuri Giants signing ex-Swallows free agent outfielder Alex Ramirez to a two-year contract carrying 1 billion yen (US$9 million) in total.

Sources: 12.20.2007 editions of Daily Sports Newspaper, Sports Hochi Newspaper and Nikkan Sports Newspaper; 12.19.2007 editors of Sports Hochi Newspaper, Nikkan Sports Newspaper and Sports Nippon Newspaper; 12.17.2007 edition of Sports Hochi Newspaper.

Pat Gillick scores one with the signing of Geoff Jenkins. With Shane Victorino moving from right to center field, Gillick has essentially swapped Aaron Rowand, who signed with the Giants, for Jenkins. Actually, it’s more than a swap, since the Phillies will get two draft picks for the Giants’ signing of Rowand.

Assuming that the Phillies could have signed Rowand for the same 5-yr/$60M deal the Giants gave him, here’s how the Phillies can view the Rowand for Jenkins “trade”:

Phillies gain:

• $5.5M in 2008
• $5.5M in 2009
• $12.0M in 2010
• $12.0M in 2011
• $12.0M in 2012
• 35th draft pick in 2008
• 55th draft pick in 2009

Phillies lose:

• Rowand’s marginal production in 2008 (assuming Rowand is better than Jenkins)
• Rowand’s marginal production in 2009 (assuming Rowand is better than Jenkins)
• Rowand’s production in 2010
• Rowand’s production in 2011
• Rowand’s production in 2012

Seems like a no-brainer, doesn’t it?

And I’m not all that convinced Jenkins, who will be 33 years old next season, doesn’t duplicate what Rowand would have done in 2008 and 2009 with the Phillies. Here are Jenkins’ last three seasons, along with my unscientific projection of his next two seasons based on park factor and the Phillies line-up:

• 2005: .292/.375/.513
• 2006: .271/.357/.434
• 2007: .255/.319/.471
• 2008: .280/.350/.490
• 2009: .275/.345/.480

Here are Rowand’s last three seasons and my 2008 and 2009 projections had the 30 year old stayed in Philly:

• 2005: .270/.329/.407
• 2006: .262/.321/.425
• 2007: .309/.374/.515
• 2008: .285/.350/.455
• 2009: .282/.348/.450

Again, unscientific, but I think Jenkins will produce slightly more offensively than Rowand would have in Philly over the next two years. Yes, I think there is a defensive drop-off, but hardly enough to offset the lower cost, future financial flexibility and two draft picks the Phillies get by going with Jenkins.

Kudos to Pat Gillick.

The Baseball community has certain labels that it uses to try and categorize players into certain consolidated attributes and skill sets. Players with a strong arm are often said to have a plus arm, guys who appear to be consistently coming up with big hits in end of game situations are referred to as clutch hitters. A prospect who is a multi talented player is sometimes said to be a five tool player or how about the player who hits a lot of singles, sometimes referred to as a contact hitter. The list goes on and on but what do these labels actual mean? Sometimes certain labels don’t have a real definition, enabling fans to overuse or misuse them.

One label that has always bothered me is innings eater. In today’s game one is usually thought to reach this status with a year end total of 200+ IP during the course of a season. I always felt there was a misconception with this particular label; that all 200 IP pitchers aren’t created equally.

While in today’s game of five man rotations, I feel the idea of 200 innings is a decent gauge, as a sole measuring stick of a pitcher’s endurance it is highly questionable for one reason. Given the chance to start enough games, most major league pitchers can inflate their end of season totals and appear to be more of an innings eater than they actually are. Point in case, Dontrelle Willis was a pitcher who hit the 200 innings mark in 2007, although it took him a league leading 35 starts. While yes he reached 200 IP, you have to take into account the quantity of GS it took for him to get there. It just didn’t seem to add up to me, so I decided to try a different approach in the quest to find the leagues true inning eaters.

The way I approached this was fairly simple, everyone needed to be on equal ground to start this out. Instead of dividing groups of pitchers into Games Started, I went with the idea of Innings Per Start. Thus eliminating the fact that some pitchers didn’t reach 200 innings but maybe had a better IPS ratio than that of pitchers who did.

Now I know what you’re going to say, what about a player who only started 6 games and therefore has a great IPS? Well I took that into consideration and in a perfect world each pitcher on a 5 man rotation would have 32.4 GS in a 162 game schedule. Also taking into consideration that players can be injured or may miss a start or two I felt that 26 GS was a good bottom line to qualify for this experiment, allowing for one missed start a month. Having established my qualification baseline, we find 93 pitchers in the ML who had 26 GS or more in the 2007 season.

I broke down all 93 players into 8 tiers that sorted the pitchers based on IPS. The tiers are separated by thirds of an inning or, looking at it another way, by the average number of outs per start the pitcher recorded. For example, Tier One includes the two pitchers who averaged more than 7 IPS or recorded an average of just over 21 outs each time they took the mound. In the table below, column one is IPS and column two is total innings pitched.

Elite - Tier One (7+ IP, 21+ O)

• Roy Halladay 7.26 225.1
• C.C. Sabathia 7.08 241

Superior – Tier Two (6.2+ IP, 20+ O)

• B. Webb 6.95 236.1
• J. Shields 6.93 215
• A. Harang 6.80 231.2
• J. Lackey 6.78 224
• J. Blanton 6.76 230
• J. Vazquez 6.75 216.2
• J. Guthrie 6.73 175.1
• F. Carmona 6.71 215
• M. Buehrle 6.70 201
• J. Beckett 6.67 200.2

Good – Tier Three (6.1+ IP, 19+ O)

• C. Wang 6.63 199.1
• J. Santana 6.63 219
• R. Oswalt 6.62 212
• T. Hudson 6.59 224.1
• J. Peavy 6.56 223.1
• C. Hamels 6.53 183.1
• D, Haren 6.53 222.2
• J. Garland 6.50 208.1
• I. Snell 6.50 208
• K. Escobar 6.50 195.2
• E. Bedard 6.50 182
• J. Smoltz 6.41 205.2
• D. Matsuzaka 6.38 204.2
• G. Meche 6.35 216
• C. Zambrano 6.35 216.1
• F. Hernandez 6.33 190.1

Average – Tier Four (6+ IP, 18+ O)

• A. Pettitte 6.32 215.1
• J. Francis 6.32 215.1
• A. Wainwright 6.31 202
• B. Penny 6.30 208
• J. Contreras 6.30 189
• J. Verlander 6.28 201.2
• T. Gorzelanny 6.28 201.2
• D. McGowan 6.26 169.2
• M. Cain 6.25 200
• Kip Wells 6.23 162.2
• D. Lowe 6.22 199.1
• J. Bonderman 6.21 174.1
• M. Morris 6.19 198.2
• P. Byrd 6.19 192.1
• L. Hernandez 6.18 204.1
• B. Arroyo 6.18 210.2
• C. Silva 6.12 202
• Brian Bannister 6.11 165
• P. Maholm 6.11 177.2
• O. Perez 6.10 177
• T. Wakefield 6.09 189
• R. Hill 6.09 195
• T. Lilly 6.08 207
• S. Kazmir 6.06 206.2
• J. Suppan 6.06 206.2
• W. Williams 6.06 188
• J. Moyer 6.03 199.1
• J. Washburn 6.03 193.2
• M. Batista 6.03 193
• N. Lowry 6.00 156
• D. Cabrera 6.00 204.1
• K. Lohse 6.00 192.2
• D. Bush 6.00 186.1

Below Average – Tier Five (5.2+ IP, 17+ O)

• J. Maine 5.96 191
• B. Zito 5.94 196.2
• N. Robertson 5.90 177.2
• M. Belisle 5.90 177.2
• T. Glavine 5.88 200.1
• W. Rodriguez 5.87 182.2
• D. Willis 5.86 205.1
• C. Gaudin 5.85 199.1
• B. Looper 5.83 175
• G. Maddux 5.82 198
• D. Davis 5.82 192.2
• J. Marquis 5.79 191.2
• C. Young 5.76 173
• E. Santana 5.76 150
• B. Bonser 5.76 173
• J. Weaver 5.75 161
• J. Fogg 5.69 165.2

Bad – Tier Six (5.1+ IP, 16+ O)

• M. Owings 5.63 152.2
• M. Mussina 5.62 152.0
• K. Millwood 5.55 172.2
• S. Mitre 5.51 149
• S. Trachsel 5.44 158
• D. Wells 5.41 157.1
• Jeff Weaver 5.41 146.2
• M. Chico 5.38 167
• C. James 5.37 161.1
• A. Eaton 5.37 162.2
• J. Danks 5.34 139
• S. Olsen 5.33 176.2

Awful – Tier Seven (5.0+ IP, 15+ O)

• O. Perez 5.27 137.1
• E. Jackson 5.19 161

Seriously? – Tier Eight (4.2+ IP, 14+ O)

• K. Davies 4.85 136

There is obviously a difference between Kyle Davies and Roy Halladay in skill as pitchers, but the fact that Halladay is good for 7+ more outs a start than Davies is a serious differential. IPS is a good measurement for pitchers who have a steady line of starts, being able to stabilize the pitchers productivity and consistency and match them against others in the league, even with a wide range of GS.

At 26 starts there is no possible way to say that Noah Lowry could sustain his 6 IPS for say 33 games, but the fact that he did it for that long leads me to believe that there wouldn’t be a huge difference if he had more starts. Of course anything is possible, but in a league of opportunity maybe this is a better measurement for younger pitchers, enabling more teams to find better bargains for the back end of their rotations.

In the 2nd part to this article, I will provide what each of the 93 pitchers made per inning, another list that has some surprising names and numbers. Some are actually quite startling…. Andy Pettitte is making $74,304 per inning as a Yankee? I guess if you got it, spend it.

Former Red Sox outfielder Gabe Kapler is coming out of retirement to sign with the Milwaukee Brewers. The contract is for $800,000.

“Gabe brings versatility and athleticism to the outfield position,” Brewers GM Doug Melvin said. “He has always been a great teammate and possesses the determination to bounce back and become a valuable player to our club.” – Boston Globe

Huh? Not that $800K matters in the big picture. Not that we’ll be talking about this in a year. But what the heck? How do things like this happen? I can just see Melvin sitting at his big desk, leaning back in his fancy executive chair and suddenly exclaiming:

We must sign Gabe Kapler!! We must, we must. Gord, go track him down. He’ll be 32 next year, didn’t play last year and can’t hit. He’s the missing puzzle to our 2008 championship run!

At this point in his career, Kapler has almost no value to any kind of team. He doesn’t hit enough to be a #4 outfielder, and he doesn’t defend well enough to be a backup centerfielder. He’s really a AAA-insurance type guy who you don’t want to have to call up. Look at his last five seasons (and forget for the moment he didn’t even play last year!):

• 2002 .279/.313/.375
• 2003 .271/.336/.391
• 2004 .272/.311/.390
• 2005 .247/.282/.351
• 2006 .254/.340/.354

Kapler’s biggest asset is leadership – that’s why the Red Sox entrusted him to manage the Greenville Drive – their A affiliate – last year. The Brewers would be better off just signing him as a coach.

I can understand why Kapler is doing this. It’s $800,000, plus he gets to play the game again. But for the Brewers, this doesn’t make any sense. Gagne, Mota, Torres, Kapler… Message to Doug: You’ve got a great core of young talent, but surrounding it with crap won’t get you a championship.

I heard that the Baseball Writers’ Association will be including some internet-based writers into the fold. Maybe I’ll have Hall of Fame voting power someday! Be afraid! Until then, I’ll have to pretend. Here’s the second of three players I would vote in this year (my first was Goose Gossage.)

Bert Blyleven. In this case, the numbers speak for themselves:

• 287 wins (26th all time)
• 3.31 ERA (13th)
• 118 ERA+
• 1.198 WHIP
• 3,701 Ks (5th)
• 4,970 IP (13th)
• 60 shutouts (9th)

One of the arguments I hear against Blyleven is that he wasn’t dominant – he just pitched a long time.  That’s hogwash. Blyleven compares well against other HOF pitchers in his generation in terms of top ten CY Young finishes:

Top ten CY Young finishes

• Tom Seaver 9
• Ferguson Jenkins 6
• Gaylord Perry 5
• Phil Niekro 5
• Don Sutton 5
• Bert Blyleven 4

Now consider that Blyleven pitched for some bad teams. If he had pitched for better teams, he would have likely finished in the top ten several more times. Consider these years he didn’t get a sniff of the CY Young largely because of his team’s performance during his games and the season overall:

• 1971: 16-15, 278.3 IP, 224 K, 2.81 ERA, 1.171 WHIP (Min: 74-86)
• 1972: 17-17, 287.3 IP, 228 K, 2.73 ERA, 1.100 WHIP (Min: 77-77)
• 1974: 17-17, 281.0 IP, 249 K, 2.66 ERA, 1.142 WHIP (Min: 82-80)
• 1976: 13-16, 297.7 IP, 219 K, 2.87 ERA, 1.223 WHIP (Min: 85-77; Tex: 76-86)
• 1977: 14-12, 234.7 IP, 182 K, 2.72 ERA, 1.065 WHIP (Tex: 94-68)

Looking at the numbers Blyleven can control, he fits right in with Perry, Sutton, Jenkins and Niekro. Seaver is in a different class.

ERA

• Tom Seaver 2.86
• Gaylord Perry 3.11
• Don Sutton 3.26
• Bert Blyleven 3.31
• Ferguson Jenkins 3.34
• Phil Niekro 3.35

WHIP

• Tom Seaver 1.121
• Don Sutton 1.142
• Ferguson Jenkins 1.142
• Gaylord Perry 1.181
• Bert Blyleven 1.198
• Phil Niekro 1.268

Had he pitched on better teams, he could have won 325 games. More proof of this is his performance in the postseason. In eight postseason appearances (six starts), Blyleven went 5-1 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.078 WHIP. Imagine if he had pitched for teams like the Dodgers or Yankees. It’s about time Blyleven was put in his proper place: the Hall of Fame.

It is not surprising that Roger Clemens, through his agents and legal counsel, has denied involvement in the performance-enhancement scandal that has wracked baseball, and which has now impugned his integrity and clouded the credibility of his late-career performance.

The initial impetus of the Team Clemens defense was to cast aspersion on the man whose testimony has served as an indictment of The Rocket, Brian McNamee. One of Clemens’ attorneys portrayed him as a ‘troubled’ man who turned government informant in order to obtain leniency in a pending criminal case. All of which may be true — but so what?

According to reports, the ‘deal’ given to McNamee included a caveat that ANY false statement(s) would kill his leniency agreement. Furthermore, it was understood that false statements would open the former strength and conditioning coach to additional legal charges (perjury). Thus, McNamee would actually end up spending more time in prison as a result of his ‘deal’ if he told an untruth… not much incentive to lie, is there?

Jay Gibbons, F P Santangelo, Andy Pettitte, Fernando Vina and Brian Roberts have all corroborated (at least PART of) the stories told about each of them — further enhancing the believability of McNamee.So for the sake of argument — and this article — let us assume that McNamee IS telling the truth, which means we will be assuming that Clemens is NOT.  With a Hall-of-Fame career already in place by 1998, what were Clemens’ motivations for taking performance enhancers in the first place?

It seems to me that The Seven Deadly Sins — as set forth by Pope Gregory the Great (in the 6th Century AD) and the great Dante Alighieri (in The Divine Comedy ) — would be a good place to start with our assessment. Of the seven sins, one - sloth - is not a word that has ever been applied to Clemens; two others - gluttony and lust - pertain to food consumption and sexual desire, respectively, and do not apply to our discussion; and a fourth - envy - is a word that has been associated with Rahjah only to the extent that other pitchers have envied his abilities and longevity.

That leaves us with three other ‘deadly sins’ - pride, wrath and greed - which may provide us with a measure of explanation into Clemens’ motives.

Pride is one of the sources of his greatness and, apparently, it is a character flaw that contributed to his demise as part of the steroids era.Anger has proven to be a great motivating factor throughout history… and certainly seems to have been among the emotions that drove Clemens into the steroid abyss.

Greed? Well, if Clemens has proven ANYTHING since the mid-1990s, he has proven that money is his greatest motivating factor.After the 1996 season, Boston GM Dan Duquette extended a contract offer to Clemens that the pitcher found insulting. In explaining the rationale for his proposal, Duquette reasoned that Clemens accumulated a mediocre record (40-39) during the previous four years. Further, he opined that the right-hander was “in the twilight of his career”. The GM failed to acknowledge how the failings of a horrid Red Sox bullpen had contributed to Clemens’ dismal record, and he ignored the signs that Clemens still had plenty left in the tank (ie, the fact that The Rocket led the league in strikeouts [257] in 1996).

The verbal swipe injured Clemens’ pride and incurred his wrath. Roger took the best financial offer on the table and signed with the Toronto Blue Jays on December 13, 1996.  He then undertook a rigorous off-season workout program. In his first year with the Blue Jays, he achieved the Pitching Triple Crown — leading the league in wins (21), ERA (2.05) and strikeouts (292). In his first appearance at Fenway Park in a visitor’s uniform (July 12, 1997), The Rocket allowed one run on four hits over eight innings pitched — striking out sixteen Red Sox batters. As he walked from the mound at the end of his outing, he famously glared at Duquette — seated in the owner’s box behind home plate — as if to say: screw you! Clemens won his fourth Cy Young Award that season.

But the following season, Clemens got off to a rocky start. Duquette’s pronouncement — “the twilight of his career!” — hung thick in the air throughout the spring.  People around baseball openly wondered whether he had hit the wall.  On Friday, May 29th, Roger’s record stood at 5-6 and he appeared headed toward another .500 record. The previous season appeared to have been an aberration — motivated by his bruised ego and the anger he felt towards the Boston GM.

But a week later, The Rocket lunched with teammate Jose Canseco and another man at the steroid king’s Miami-area home (Mitchell Report, p 168), and soon thereafter, he began taking injections of the steroid Winstrol (p 169). He didn’t lose another decision the rest of the season.

He won fifteen consecutive decisions, again completed the Pitching Triple Crown (20 W / 2.65 ERA / 271 K), and earned his fifth Cy Young Award. During the height of his summer success, Clemens allegedly told McNamee that the steroids “had a pretty good effect” on him (p 170).

In 1999, Clemens struggled through a rough 14-10, 4.60, campaign in his first year with the NY Yankees. The NY media and Yankees fans rode him hard.  Again, the baseball world wondered if he was washed up. In the middle of the 2000 season, his record was again miserable (4-6 on July 1st). The NY media and Yankees fans again rode him hard. His ego was again badly bruised. He was angry. So he picked up the telephone and went back on ‘the juice’ mid-season (adding HGH to his performance-enhancing tonic). He finished the season winning nine of his last eleven decisions (for the year he was 13-8, 3.70).

In 2001, during another Cy-Young-Award-winning (20-3) season, he reportedly placed a call to his trainer and went back on steroids late in the season.

Pride? Wrath? Greed? It seems to me the answer is ‘all of the above’ — to varying degrees at various times. 

The discussion about Clemens is now focusing, in part, on whether he should be enshrined in Cooperstown with the other greats of the game. What was once a sure-thing now seems like a long-shot.

No one can know what the next five years (plus) will hold, but it would seem to me that The Rocket’s express train to the HOF has been derailed — permanently derailed — unless McNamee’s testimony is somehow PROVEN to have been contrived. Clemens’ Hall-of-Fame enshrinement now appears to be as dead as a door nail. That must be why they are called “The Seven DEADLY Sins”.

Big name players changing addresses can have a significant effect on their fantasy value. Getting into better line-ups and bigger/smaller ball parks can raise or lower a player’s draft position by a few spots – significant enough to take note on draft day. This off-season has been full of splashy moves – with a few more no doubt on the horizon. Let’s take a look at some big name players that should see changes in production for 2008.

Dan Haren – From Oakland to Arizona

The most significant factor regarding Haren is the move to the National League. Facing the pitcher once every nine batters – keeping the lineup from turning over and stopping rallies – should help Haren’s ERA and IP. It’s well-known that Oakland’s McAfee Coliseum is a pitchers park. Oakland’s home park factor for runs scored is 0.833, second lowest in MLB to Petco in San Diego. Chase Field in Arizona, on the other hand, has a 1.111 park factor for runs, good for fifth highest in baseball. Considering these two factors, and the fact he’ll have a better club in Arizona to support him, I would expect Haren’s numbers to be similar to his 2007 campaign, with probably a few more wins and a higher ERA.

Miguel Cabrera – From Florida to Detroit

Cabrera is moving into a very favorable position in the high-powered Tigers offense. Batting around guys like Ordonez, Sheffield, Granderson and Polanco should create more RBI and run opportunities for Cabrera. Facing tougher AL pitching will probably affect Cabrera’s average, but the power will still be there as Comerica has a slight edge in park factor for home runs over Dolphin Stadium. Cabrera should have a great season in Detroit and is the second best AL third basemen, behind A-rod.

Jose Valverde – From Arizona to Houston

Valverde was a boon to many fantasy teams last season, locking down the coveted save stat with a robust 47 for the Diamondbacks. But his move to Houston will cause a dip in value, from near-elite to middle of the road. Arizona had a killer bullpen last year, lead by Valverde, but featured Lyon, Cruz and Pena - all of whom had sub-3.50 ERAs and 1.27 WHIPs.

Houston’s pen is now pretty much just Valverde – no more Qualls or Lidge. Instead, there’s Borowski (1.53 WHIP/5.15 ERA) and a bunch of kids. The takeaway from all this is that the setup guys are going to blow save oppoturnities for Valverde. Also, Houston is not a great pitching team to begin with, so they’ll have to out slug teams, which is often not conducive to save situations.

Look for Valverde’s save numbers to come crashing to Earth next season – probably in the low twenties. If you’re desperate for K’s and possibly WHIP, he may still be a fine source for it, but so are a lot of setup men. If he’s your number one closer, I’d be worried. Let someone else draft this guy in the middle rounds.

Aaron Rowand – From Philadelphia to San Francisco

Rowand’s numbers will drop from an uber-career year in 2007. Going from Citizens Bank Ballpark (first in homers and fourteenth in runs) to AT&T Park (twenty-fourth and seventeenth) isn’t going to help. On top of that he’ll be the best or second best hitter on that team, instead of the fourth or fifth best on Philly. With guys like Durham, Vizquel and Winn batting around/ahead of him, it should be a long season for Rowand. Stay away from him in all but the deep mixed or 10 team NL only leagues.

Miguel Tejada – From Baltimore to Houston

Houston is a hitting team. With Lee, Pence and Berkman around to protect him, Tejada will see many more RBI opportunities in Houston than in Baltimore. These numbers will be mitigated by the fact that Camden is a hitter’s park and Minute Maid is middle of the road, but Tejada will still be a reliable option at short and possibly third. If you miss out on the numerous studs at third and short in NL only leagues, (Reyes, Wright, Ramirez, Rollins, Braun) you could do a lot worse than the steady Tejada.

Eric Gagne – From Boston to Milwaukee

Gagne was actually a great source of saves during his time in Texas. While his stay in Boston was a disaster, he could be a steal in later rounds this season, especially if you’re scrambling for a closer. Boston tried to use Gagne as a set-up guy and it didn’t work out. Milwaukee lost their closer and will rely on Gagne to lock up those close games. Many will remember his ugly days in Boston and forget he was a solid closer for Texas and pass him by on draft day. If your draft is hit by a closer rush and you miss out, Gagne should be good for 25-30 saves if he’s healthy.

Johan Santana/Erik Bedard – Destination unknown

It’s not if, but when for these two. They’re going somewhere before the start of the 2008 season. Both were absolute studs last season, and will be next year. But where they end up could be important. By most accounts, Santana will be a Red Sox or Yankee by opening day. Either destination boosts his value considerably. Boston or New York means more wins for Santana, as either squad is a monster upgrade offensively over Minnesota. He’ll be battling Peavy for “first starter to be taken” come draft day.

Bedard had a spectacular year in 2007, but remains a question mark for 2008. Injury could be a factor and if he moves to the NL, in particular the Reds, his numbers could take a dive. Still, he was probably a CY Young contender before his injury and would have been a shoe-in on a good team.

A move to the Mets (great line-up, better park factor) would be ideal for Bedard. Facing pitchers and weaker NL East line-ups (aside from the Phillies) than he was used to in the AL East would boost his value in wins and ERA. A move to the Mariners would be an upgrade to his Baltimore stats, with a slightly better line-up and better park factors. Bedard is a great number two starter and an OK number one if you’re deep at other positions and could swing a deal if he gets injured.

The list of free agents that are still available is unique this year in that there are a lot of unemployed players who are likely to be on the Hall of Fame ballot some day. Here’s Part I of a look at those players. Is it time to hang ‘em up.

MIKE PIAZZA

• Age: 39
• Career numbers: .308/.377/.545, with 427 HRs, 1,335 RBIs and 1,048 runs
• 2007 numbers: .275/..313/.414, with 8 HRs, 44 RBIs and 33 runs

He’s a future Hall of Famer, and he may still have another year or two left as a DH and part-time first baseman. He’s not likely to have another truly good year, but he’s also not in danger of dropping below .300, even with a terrible year. So, I say he should play one more year with an AL contender that needs help at DH. That to me screams out Seattle, which for some reason gave its DH at bats to Jose Vidro last year, to the tune of .314/..381/.394, with 6 HRs and 59 RBIs. Verdict: One more year, with Seattle.

SAMMY SOSA

• Age: 39
• Career numbers: .273/.344/.534 (lower than Piazza’s), with 609 HRs, 1,667 RBIs and 1,475 runs
• 2007 numbers: .252/.311/.468, with 21 HRs, 92 RBIs and 53 runs

Sosa can play another year, but not as an everyday outfielder. His swing also relies too much on his upper-body, and he’s too old for that. He best suited for DH or as a platoon hitter. Though he surprised me with his 2007 production, after taking 2006 off, Sosa should not hit in the middle of the lineup. With his apparent me-first attitude, steroid past and declining slugging numbers, Sosa should not be signed by a team in contention. A team that is about to blow itself up, such as Baltimore or hopefully San Francisco, could be a good fit because of his marketing value. I say he should play for another year, just for the drama of it. And in a place like Baltimore, he might go for 25 HRs and 90 RBIs, even if his slugging percentage dips toward .400. Verdict: One more year, with Baltimore.

BARRY BONDS

• Age: 43
• Career numbers: .298/.444/.607, with 762 HRs, 1,996 RBIs and 2,227 runs
• 2007 numbers: .276/..480/.565, with 28 HRs, 66 RBIs and 75 runs

Like Piazza and Sosa, he can’t play every day in the field at this point of his career. Unless a team is looking to sign him exclusively for his marketing value, his best fit is on an AL contender with a strong veteran presence. The Angels would be a great fit even though they already have Anderson, Guerrero, Matthews and Hunter for the three outfield positions and DH. Between potential injuries to Anderson and regular days off for the other three, Bonds could see 400 at bats and provide the feared complement to Guerrero – which Hunter is not. Verdict: One more year, with the Angels.

JEFF CIRILLO

• Age: 38
• Career numbers: .296/.366/.430, with 112 HRs, 727 RBIs, 800 runs and 1,598 hits
• 2007 numbers: .249/.316/.368, with 2 HRs and 27 RBIs in 193 at bats

Cirillo used to be one of the game’s more consistent and underrated third basemen. He hit at least .313 in five different seasons with the Brewers and Rockies. He averaged 184 hits per season from 1996 to 2001. Had his career not imploded following his trade to Seattle, he looked like someone who could have come close to 2,500 career hits. But now he needs to call it a day. He’s too fragile to platoon, and even if someone has an interest in him as a pinch hitter, they’d still need a pinch runner. Verdict: Hang ‘Em Up.

Tomorrow we’ll look at Rondell White, Darin Erstad, Julio Franco, Sean Green, Reggie Sanders and Mike Sweeney. Then over the weekend we’ll tackle the pitchers.

I heard that the Baseball Writers’ Association will be including some internet-based writers into the fold. Maybe I’ll have Hall of Fame voting power someday! Be afraid! Until then, I’ll have to pretend. Here’s the first of three players I would vote in this year.

Goose Gossage. He defined the closer role in the 1970s and 1980s. Unlike today’s one-and-done closers, Gossage pitched multiple days and multiple innings, just like Hall of Famer Rollie Fingers. I think the true criteria for induction into the Hall is whether a player was dominating over an extended period of time. That is what Gossage was. Look at the stats:

• 310 saves
• 124 wins!
• 3.01 career ERA
• Five times finished in the top six of CY Young voting
• Five times finished in the top 17 of MVP voting
• There were two other seasons in which he should have received consideration for both the CY Young and MVP: 1. 1977 for Pittsburgh: 11-9, 26 saves, 133 IP, 151 K, 1.62 ERA, 0.955 WHIP. 2. 1983 for the Yankees: 13-5, 22 saves, 87.3 IP, 90K, 2.27 ERA, 1.225 WHIP
• He pitched 1,809.3 innings over 22 years, averaging 118.3 innings per 162 game season. By comparison, Mariano Rivera, the best closer in the current generation and a lock for the Hall has averaged 81 innings. Trevor Hoffman has averaged 72.7 innings.

Just as important as the numbers was the fact that he was the most feared reliever in the game. You didn’t want to face him, and that’s the mark of a champion and a Hall of Famer. Fingers, Gossage and Rivera are the three best relievers since 1970, and they all deserve to be in the Hall.

Gossage was a closer for 13 seasons (he was a middle reliever for 8 years and inexplicably was moved to the starting rotation by the White Sox in 1976 – a year after finishing sixth in the CY Young vote as the Sox closer). With his talent and attitude, had he pitched in the 90’s and today, he could easily have averaged 40 saves per season, putting him at 500 plus saves for his career.

This is the time of year when a few teams are going to cave in and sign the Kyle Lohses and Carlos Silvas of the world. Don’t do it, Mr. GM! Be strong. These aren’t the type of pitchers that will win you a playoff series, or even get to the playoffs. Lohse and Silva may get you from fifth to fourth, or maybe fourth to third, but for those teams in fourth or fifth, you’re better off investing in your own organization. The high cost of Lohse or Silva isn’t worth the marginal improvement it may bring.

Look at how the Lohse/Silva signings (defined as mid-level, non-strikeout pitchers signed to multi-year deals) of 2006 worked out:

• Adam Eaton (3 yrs, $24.5M with Philadelphia): 6.29 ERA, 1.627 WHIP
• Jason Marquis (3 yrs, $21M with the Cubs): 4.60, 1.388
• Jeff Suppan (4 yrs, $42M with Milwaukee): 4.62, 1.505
• Woody Williams (2 yrs, $12.5M with Houston): 5.27, 1.431
• Miguel Batista (3 yrs, $25M with Seattle): 4.29, 1.523

Only Batista was worth the money (he finished 16-11) in 2007, but I think we’ll see a drop-off in his performance over the next two years as he’ll be 37 and 38 years old.

Lohse will be 29 next year. In 1,164 innings, he’s produced a 4.82 ERA and 1.432 WHIP with 734 strikeouts. In the right situation (pitching in front of a good defense), Lohse is likely to produce something along the lines of 11-11, with a 4.50 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, which would be acceptable as a number four, and good as a number five.

The 30 year old Silva is a better version of Lohse, though with far fewer strikeouts. In 945 innings, he’s produced a 4.31 ERA and 1.368 WHIP with 395 strikeouts. Take away his dreadful 2006 (in which he had a 5.94 ERA and 1.542 WHIP, with 38 home runs in 180.3 innings), and his career ERA drops to 3.93. If I’m a contending team in need of a good number four starter, I take a very hard look at Silva’s 2006 season to determine what went wrong and if it’s likely to occur again. If I’m comfortable that’s an outlier, I make a three-year offer of between $12M and $15M. That probably won’t cut it, however, as some team will profile Silva as a number two and pay him $5M-$7M annually.

So if you need pitching, what’s the alternative to overpaying for Silva and Lohse? At this point of the year, there’s not much you can do. It’s really too late to be putting together vital pieces of your rotation given the scarcity, and therefore high price, of starting pitching.

Maybe you take a chance with a free agent who has some upside, and might be affordable. Someone like Mark Prior, Jason Jennings or Freddy Garcia. But Prior and Garcia will probably sell for beyond what they’re worth.

Maybe you trade for Erik Bedard, Rich Harden, Joe Blanton, etc. But those guys are going to require a lot in exchange. You’re likely better off focusing on drafting and development so that next year at this time, you’re in a better position.

The Situation

The future in Baltimore will be based around the following names already in their system (Name, Pos, Highest Level in 2007, 2008 Age) in no particular order:

• Nick Markakis, RF, Bal, 24
• Adam Loewen, LH SP, Bal, 24
• Garrett Olsen, RH SP, Bal, 24
• Radhames Liz, RH SP/RP, Bal, 25
• Brandon Erbe, RH SP, High A, 20
• Billy Rowell, 3B, A, 20
• Noland Reimold, AA, 24
• Troy Patton, LH SP, Hou, 21
• Matt Wieters, C, ’07 1st Rounder, 22

There is a nucleus in place in Baltimore; however that nucleus comes with a lot of question marks. Markakis is a bona fide major league bat and is on the verge of becoming a star. After that, there is little to no help at the plate. Rowell is young and at least two, probably three, years away, and Reimold has had some success, but has always been old for his level of competition.

With the addition of Patton and some other depth from Houston, the Orioles have a lot of darts to throw at the mound in hopes that some of them hit the bull’s-eye. Loewen is perhaps the most likely to have success, given that he has already had some, but he needs to stay healthy. Olsen is the most polished, but profiles no higher than a 3 or 4, although he is also the most likely to reach said potential.

Liz is an enigma of talent, and might be better suited for the bullpen, perhaps as the long-term solution at closer if Chris Ray cannot bounce back from his injuries. Patton is new guy, but might be more talented than any of the incumbents. He should be given every chance to make the O’s rotation in 2008, given that there are not many spots locked up.

The one thing missing from this group is a potential ace, but depth is key to the rebuilding process. Even if only a third of their pitching prospects have any kind of sustained major league success, that gives them 2-3 major league pitchers, which is a far cry from where they are right now.

You will notice two key names of young players missing from this list: Daniel Cabrera and Jeremy Guthrie. The city of Baltimore has had a love/hate relationship with Cabrera. They love his potential, but they hate his production. His chances of turning the corner in Baltimore are likely coming to an end, as is the patience of the fans watching him fall behind every batter. He still has all the talent in the world and someone will take a chance on him. Guys with 98 mph fastballs always get another chance.

Guthrie, on the other hand, became the darling of the city with his tremendous start last year. There would most likely be a negative backlash if they traded him, but given his significant drop off towards the end of the year, and the fact that he will be 29 next year, he is not likely to repeat his success of the first half of 2007. His stock might never be higher than it is right now to trade, and given that he will be on the wrong side of 30 once the Orioles become competitive again, it might not do them any good even if he maintains his success.

The Solution

The talks of an Erik Bedard for Homer Bailey, Joey Votto, and Josh Hamilton trade need to continue. Baltimore should give the Reds virtually anything else from their minor league system that they ask for to go along with Bedard, other than the names listed above. This trade would be a huge step towards their rebuilding with Bailey being the possible ace they are missing.

The other big-time trading piece they have is Brian Roberts, who is a great player for what he does (good defensive 2B, excellent OBP from the leadoff spot) but unfortunately will be 30 this year. Most likely he won’t be productive long enough to see through the rebuilding process. His stock will never be higher than it is now (despite the Mitchell Report, which everyone seems to agree accused Roberts with nothing but hearsay).

The Cubs are showing tremendous interest in Roberts, and have the players to make a deal. They will not part with Rich Hill, but seem willing to part with Sean Gallagher. The trade rumors going around are Roberts for Gallagher, and some combination of Ronny Cedeno, Eric Patterson, and Mike Fontenot. This does not seem like enough, especially given the need for some young bats. The Orioles would love to land Felix Pie in the deal, but the Cubs do not want to give him up.

If they can’t do a deal for Pie, then the Orioles need to get a wealth of major league ready talent, even if they are not star players. A deal like this would work:

Cubs Get

• Brian Roberts
• Ramon Hernandez
• Jay Payton

Orioles Get

• Sean Gallagher
• Mike Fontonet
• Ryan Theriot
• Matt Murton
• Eric Patterson

Fontonet and Theriot are not stars, nor are they really the long-term solution in Baltimore, but they prevent the O’s from having to start Brandon Fahey, Chris Gomez, or Freddie Bynum all year, and are at least major league players. Murton has been a productive hitter in his career thus far, and could be even more productive hitter if he got to play full time. Gallagher is a solid left handed pitching prospect and can compete for the rotation soon. Patterson should be a solid major leaguer and would be reunited with his brother in Baltimore, for the time being at least.

The O’s could ask for such a large number of players because they would be solving the Cubs two most glaring holes without touching their top prospect. They would also get Jay Payton, a serviceable placeholder until Felix Pie is ready for the majors. The Cubs would be primed to contend in 2008, allowing Soriano to move to a power position in the lineup. Their new lineup would look like this:

1. Roberts 2B
2. Fukudome CF
3. Lee 1B
4. Ramirez 3B
5. Soriano LF
6. Hernandez C
7. Payton/Pie RF
8. Cedeno SS

• Zambrano
• Lilly
• Hill
• Marshall
• Marquis

This leaves the Cubs in great shape offensively, and they were able to do it without giving up their top prospect or any pitchers projected to be in their rotation.

The last trade would be Jeremy Guthrie to the Rockies for A Shortstop Chris Nelson and Jeff Baker. Nelson, who had 42 doubles in High A last season, could be Orioles shortstop of the future, but is currently road blocked in Colorado by Troy Tulowitzki and Hector Gomez. Jeff Baker has some pop but no real opening in the lineup in Colorado. The Rockies would love to add another starter.

There are more moves that can be made including moving Melvin Mora, and if they can find a taker, Aubrey Huff, but those moves will most likely not draw significant prospects in return. At best, they can find some role players to make them somewhat competitive until their young guys can compete.

A look at your new 2008 Orioles:

• LF-Matt Murton
• CF-Josh Hamilton
• RF-Nick Markakis
• 1B-Joey Votto
• 2B-Eric Patterson/Ryan Theriot
• 3B-Ryan Theriot/Scott Moore
• SS-Mike Fontonet
• C- Paul Bako/Free Agent
• DH-Millar/Huff/Luke Scott (if not traded)

• Adam Loewen
• Homer Bailey
• Daniel Cabrera
• Gallagher/Olsen/Patton/Liz

The projected Orioles of 2010-2011:

• LF-Matt Murton/Nolan Reimold
• CF-Josh Hamilton
• RF Nick Markakis
• 1B- Joey Votto
• 2B- Eric Patterson
• 3B- Billy Rowell
• SS- Chris Nelson
• C- Matt Wieters
• DH- TBD

• Homer Bailey
• Adam Loewen
• Gallagher/Olsen/Patton/Erbe

CP Liz

These moves would put the Orioles on the right path towards forming a young nucleus that could grow together and make the kind of turnaround that has been seen in Milwaukee and Philadelphia. There are no Prince Fielders or Chase Utleys here, but there is some serious talent. Coupled with wise spending in free agency after 2008 and 2009, they can be competitive very soon.

I’ve read or listened to a lot of people talking about the steroid problem in baseball lately, but there are still a few things I haven’t been able to figure out.

What is it, exactly, that causes a substance to be considered a “performance enhancing drug” (PED) in the sport of baseball? Why are steroids and HGH and amphetamines and ephedra, to name a few, considered to be PEDs by MLB? How do they each contribute to making a player better?

Don’t get me wrong. All four of those substances I named are illegal to possess or use without a prescription in this country and, therefore, have been against the rules of baseball since Fay Vincent’s 1991 memo. The problem is that just because Congress has decided to classify something as a controlled substance doesn’t mean that it’s a PED. I’ve always assumed that there needs to be some sort of evidence that a substance actually improves performance in a particular sport before it can be classified as a PED. If so, where’s the evidence?

The logic for declaring steroids a PED in baseball, as I understand it, is that steroids allow you to train harder and longer than somebody who isn’t taking them. This would allow a player to become stronger than his “clean” opponent and would then allow him to hit the ball harder and farther. If this is so, then I have a question. Why isn’t creatine on the banned list? Isn’t the whole point of creatine that taking it will allow you to become stronger, faster than a person who isn’t taking it.

How is this different than the effects of steroids? Perhaps creatine isn’t as potent as steroids, but there is presumably still a measurable positive impact provided by taking creatine. Yes, creatine and many other supplements, are legal in this country, but I don’t think the definition of a PED rests on whether or not a substance is legal in the country where the athlete competes. The definition is, according to MSN/Encarta “substances, chemical agents or procedures designed to provide an advantage in athletic performance.” Again, why isn’t creatine banned?

While we’re at it, why is HGH considered to be a PED? Where is the scientific evidence that taking HGH in combination with training makes you a better baseball player? Yes it’s illegal, but that’s not why people are upset with Andy Pettitte and the rest. They’re upset because these players are using a PED, but I’ve read a whole lot of articles by exercise physiologists who say that the claims made for HGH are bunk. If a substance like HGH doesn’t improve performance then shouldn’t players who use it be subject to the same penalties as those who use marijuana rather than those that are applied to players who use steroids?

It’s clear now that there has been widespread use of steroids and other substances in baseball, and all of the other major sports, for some time. Frankly, this doesn’t surprise me at all. What does surprise me is that people are surprised, and that this leads to the near hysterical coverage of the issue over the last week. When the hysteria dies away, I hope that some of the brighter minds in baseball and the media will take the time to consider the answers to some of the questions above. Those answers will help us to improve PED policies in sports and figure out how PEDs have affected the game of baseball, from a records perspective, over the last two decades.

Dugout Central sources have uncovered a copy of MLB’s Christmas wish list left behind in Nashville, TN at the MLB 2007 Winter Meetings. The contents of the list were to be unveiled at a private party in Manhattan on the 23rd of December.

Here is the list:

Mark Prior is looking for a new team now that the Cubs have non-tendered him. So where is the best fit for Prior? And I’m not asking, “who’s going to give him the most money.” I’m talking about where he can maximize his performance and that of the team.

Before we can answer that, we need to know what Prior is now. His past tells us that when healthy, he has the physical abilities to be a good to premium pitcher:

• He had an impressive debut in 2002 at the age of 21, starting 19 games and finishing 6-6 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.166 WHIP. He struck out 147 in 116.7 innings. (Prior tied for 7th in the NL ROY vote. Can you name the top eight finishers? Answer below).
• Prior improved in 2003, going 18-6 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.103 WHIP. He finished third in the CY Young voting.
• Then injuries hit. From 2004-2006, Prior started just 57 games. In 2006, he pitched just 43.7 innings, producing a 7.21 ERA and 1.695 WHIP.
• He’s coming off a rotator cuff injury which prevented him from pitching during 2007.

Even when healthy, Prior cannot as currently constituted be a premium pitcher. The problem is that though he has good stuff (effective fastball, slider and change-up), Prior is soft. Until he musters some guts on a level comparable to his physical talents, Prior will never be a dependable starter.

Prior should sign with the New York Mets because of their pitching coach, Rick Peterson. Peterson is very controlling. He is strict in managing his pitchers’ routines and tries to give pitchers just one thing to think about at a time. Pitchers who tend to let their thoughts wander or who doubt their ability can respond well to his methods (see Oliver Perez in 2007).

Prior might fare better in a small market environment (Kansas City) all things being equal, but Peterson makes the Mets the best fit.

If the Mets are interested in Prior, they should look to sign him to an incentive-laden two-year deal with a team option for at least another year. Prior has the talent and will be just 27 next year, so the Mets would need to protect their investment should Peterson be able to turn Prior’s career around, thus driving up his price.

If the Mets do sign Prior and if they are able to trade for Johan Santana, they then have a five man pitching staff composed of #1 and #2 type starters:

• Santana (29)
• Pedro (36)
• Maine (27)
• Perez (26)
• Prior (27)

With David Wright, Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes in the prime of their careers and with Billy Wagner anchoring the back of the pen, this would make the Mets the early favorite for the NL pennant. Isn’t this something you do if you’re Omar Minaya?

Answer to trivia question (Who were the top 8 finishers in the 2002 NL ROY voting?):

1. Jason Jennings
2. Brad Wilkerson
3. Austin Kearns
4. Kaz Ishii
5. Damian Moss
6. Ryan Jensen
7. Tie: Josh Fogg & Mark Prior

Last week Kazuo Fukumori signed a two-year, $3M contract with the Texas Rangers. What can the Rangers expect from Fukumori?  

Kazuo Fukumori
Relief Pitcher
Tohoku Rakuten
Observed: September 2007
Player/Body Type: Thin wirey build
Born: 08/04/1976
Ht/Wt: 72 / 172
Bats/Throws: Right / Right
Arm Angle: Three-quarter

Overall
Fukumori is used in Japan as a closer, and although he has had some success in that role, he does not have enough to pitch there in the States. His stuff overall is below average, and he tends to elevate his FB too much to be effective in the later innings in the States. Although he could use his split to get ML hitters out, he does not have enough to go with it, and his command is not consistent enough to be anything more than a middle reliever. The other issue with Fukumori is he is coming off elbow surgery to remove bone chips. Though he has said he is healthy, we would be sure to have him seen by your own team doctors before you do anything. An invite with an incentive-laden contract would be the best way to proceed with this pitcher.

Strengths
• Can pitch in the 7th and 8th innings.
• Is commited to pitching in the U.S.

Weaknesses
• Has below average stuff overall.
• Had elbow surgery at the end of the season for bone chips.
• Does not have enough to pitch as a closer in the U.S..
• Inconsistent FB command

Fastball (86-89mph) Grade: 45
Movement- He has a tail action to his arm side and at times will show a small sink, but it is not consistent and he will throw 4 seamer to his glove side.

Command- Overall he has below average command with his FB because he tends to leave it up in the zone, which causes it to flatten out.

Plan- Looks to use his fastball early to get ahead of the hitter and establish strike one on the outer half of the zone, especially to left handed hitters.

Curve (72-76mph) Grade: 45
Movement- His CB has a small 10-4 break to it with average rotation.

Command- Slightly below average command because he will come around it at times and pull off the ball, which causes it to stay in the middle of the plate and up in the zone.

Plan- He will use this pitch early in the count looking for a quick strike. It is a below average pitch overall because he is not able to throw it consistently for quality strikes.

Split-Finger (77-80mph) Grade: 50
Movement- Has tumble action and break to it but will at times show late sinking action.

Command- He has average command with this pitch and is able to throw it for strikes in any count. He will at times get too quick and pull off of it, which causes him to leave it up in the zone.

Plan- He uses his split as his out pitch, and he looks to get hitters to chase it out of the zone when he is ahead of the count. When he has runners on base he will go to this pitch to get quick outs.

Pitching Mechanics
His mechanics are average overall. He tends to overload on his back side at the same time he takes the ball out of his glove early. He then works in a drop and drive motion when he is coming to the plate. His problems come in when he jumps off his back side, which makes it impossible to get to full extension and is forced to elevate the ball too much. When he is able to stay within himself he has the ability to create a solid angle and show late life through the zone, but he’s too inconsistent to be effective at the ML level.

International Success Rate
Since Fukumori is coming off elbow surgery there is a big question of his overall health, which until is checked out by your own team doctor you should question. Also his stuff overall is below average and he tends to leave too many pitches up in the strike zone, which will not work at the major league level. He is able to throw his split and curveball for strikes, but they are not enough to make him a successful major league pitcher unless he is used sparingly. He is, however, commited to playing in the U.S. at this time and will attempt to do all he can to be successful here. Overall he just doesn’t have enough to get it done here in the closer or setup roles.

We posted an article yesterday today wherein Pags analyzed the trade that sent Dan Haren to Arizona for five prospects. He praised the Diamondbacks for their scouting and development and for their organizational philosophy of “going for it” when they had a shot at the title. I can’t argue with that. I can argue with his criticism of the A’s. He kept it to a single sentence, but that sentence speaks volumes. Here it is:

Hanshin Tigers Acquire Minnesota Twins OF Lew Ford

Hanshin Tigers team president Nobuo Minami announced that Hanshin has signed Lew Ford. Contract terms were not disclosed. Ford’s 2007 stats:

.233/.315/.362, OPS: .677, RC: 13, BABIP: .270 

Here’s how I project his 2008 stats:

.260/.352/.390, OPS: .742, RC: 20, BABIP: .301

Chiba Lotte Marines Sign Yakult Swallows Pitcher Sikorski

The Chiba Lotte Marines have signed RHP Brian Sikorski to a one-year contract worth 70 million yen (US $640,000). The club is believed to have an option for the 09’season but that is unconfirmed.

NPB Commissioner Will Not Tolerate Performance Drugs in Japan

When the Mitchell Report came out Thursday, roughly 10% of the 90 players listed as suspects had played for or still belong to NPB clubs. The NPB acting commissioner Negoro categorically denied steroid/HGH use in Japan and said: “performance enhancing drug monitoring and surveillance within the NPB organization is complete in every detail.”

Adam Riggs (Yakult Swallows), Jeff Williams (Hanshin Tigers), Alex Cabrera (ex-Seibu Lions) and a few others were either named or rumored to be in the Mitchell Report. Almost all NPB club officials feel that a retroactive investigation would be totally unnecessary.

 Yokohama BayStars May Terminate the Contract with OF Larry Bigbie

A Yokohama BayStars spokesman said the club is strongly considering terminating the contract of newly signed outfielder Larry Bigbie. Since last Thursday, when the Mitchell Report became public, the BayStars asked and received permission from Bigbie’s agent to check current and past medical records. Bigbie claimed that he took human growth hormones (a substance believed to speed up the healing process) to help him recover from an injury. If the club feels Bigbie’s medical records don’t mesh with the other information received or he intentionally lied, then the club would have no choice but to terminate the act with the outfielder.

Sources: 12.15.2007 online edition of Sports Nippon Newspaper and 12.15.2007 print editions of Nikkan Sports Newspaper and Sports Hochi Newspaper.

Great signing by the Twins Friday when they nabbed third baseman Mike Lamb to a two-year, $6.6M deal.

Now Lamb isn’t going to make anyone think Gary Gaetti has been re-born, but he’ll be a huge upgrade from Nick Punto, who is best suited for a utility infielder role. Comparing Young and Punto from 2007:

• Punto: .210/.291/.271
• Lamb: .289/.366/.453

Anytime you can improve the slugging percentage at a position by 182 points, you gotta pull the trigger. Teams don’t win with light-hitting third basemen. History shows that.

The Lamb signing also brings the Yankees and Mets right back into the Santana sweepstakes. Neither team could have supplied the Twins with a third baseman. Though Kevin Youkilis name hasn’t come up publicly in discussions with the Red Sox, he would have been a good fit with the value conscious Twins. The LA Angels also could have offered third baseman Brandon Wood.

With the void at third filled, the Twins can focus on their two biggest needs: center field and starting pitching. Both the Yankees and Mets, as well as the Red Sox, do have these assets, though the Yankees have more to offer in terms of pitching.

One possible hitch in any Santana trade may be that the trade price has gone up now that Billy Beane was able to get six prospects for Haren. Though Haren is much more affordable over the next several years, Beane’s haul must have increased Twins GM Billy Smith’s expectations. Although I don’t like Oakland’s general approach to player personnel strategy, I commend him for the Haren move. I think he’ll end up getting more for Haren than Smith for Santana.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have just shown the fruits of having quality scouting and development groups in their trade of six minor leaguers to Oakland for All-Star starting pitcher Dan Haren.

How can any baseball fan not like this move? Arizona is going for it now, and you’ve got to love that as a Diamondbacks fan or respect it as a baseball fan. Byrnes means business.

If Randy Johnson comes back to fill the three spot they’re looking at the best rotation in the national league:

1. Brandon Webb
2. Dan Haren
3. Randy Johnson
4. Doug Davis
5. Micah Owings/Livan Hernandez

The Diamondbacks bullpen has a hole to fill at closer with the departure of Valverde, but they must feel confident in Brandon Lyon or Tony Pena closing. But they have the foundation of a good bullpen, with Chad Qualls joining Lyon, Pena and Juan Cruz, who struck out 87 in 61 innings last year.

The Diamondbacks offense will continue to be a weak point, but it looks like Byrnes has a plan to utilize his existing resources. And that is maximizing value on pitching and defense.

So what of the other side of the coin? What does this mean for the A’s? It means they’re “statistically” going to have a very, very difficult year next year, and likely 2009 as well.

Good trade by Ed Wade yesterday:

• Jose Valverde for Chad Qualls, Chris Burke and Juan Gutierrez

The 28 year old Valverde had an excellent season in 2007 following four inconsistent years as on-again, off-again closer. He finished 6th and 14th in the CY Young and MVP voting. He saved 47 games in 54 opportunities, posting a 2.66 ERA and 1.119 WHIP.

Burke will be 28 next year and hasn’t shown anything in the majors. Yes, the Astros have moved him around and never fully committed to him, but couldn’t that be because he doesn’t produce? In 1,020 career major league at bats, Burke has produced .249/.319/.377. That ain’t cutting it.

Qualls will be 30 next year and has proven to be a valuable member of the bullpen. In 284 innings he has a 3.39 ERA and 1.236 WHIP. I don’t see the righty as a closer, but he’s a very solid 7th or 8th inning guy.

Gutierrez is a 24 year old right-handed starter who has gone 24-20 with a 3.64 and 1.36 WHIP with 412 strikeouts in 492.2 innings. http://minors.baseball-reference.com/players.cgi?pid=21313

With Brad Lidge’s struggles the past two years, the Astros have never been able to set bullpen roles. Now that Valverde is on board, the relievers will know what to expect and should be better for it.

The trade for Valverde – a free agent at the end of 2008 – in conjunction with the Tejada trade also signals that Wade wants to compete now, even if it is to the detriment of the mid-range future (2-3 years out). I can respect that because it shows there is a plan.

If Valverde has a great year, it’s highly unlikely the Astros will be able to retain him - though who would have foreseen Cincinnati signing Cordero. If Valverde leaves after 2008, it’s still a good trade:

• 1 year of Valverde + a first round draft pick and second round draft pick for Burke, Qualls and Gutierrez

Wade still needs to find another starter and sort out the middle relief to be a true contender. The question is if he has enough assets left to do that.

Yesterday was a shocking day. Something shocked me that I certainly wasn’t expecting. Something hit very, very close to home. I thought twice about writing this blog. I woke up this morning and figured I would not write it. Now, this morning, I cannot help myself but start to type.

There have not been many famous citizens from my town of Casper, Wyoming. There have been even fewer athletes. For whatever reason, the best known in my mind are all baseball players.

Mike Devereaux played several seasons with the Dodgers and Orioles, among others, in the late 80s and throughout the 90s. I did not know Mike Devereaux; he was many years older than me and lived on the other side of town. I always followed his career closely though.

Tom Browning once threw a perfect game for the Cincinnati Reds. Tom also was quite a bit older than me. His little sister, however, was the most feared hitter in our little league. I mean, that girl had game. I never knew Tom, but always followed his career closely.

Mike Lansing was named in the Mitchell Report yesterday. Mike Lansing grew up on the same street I did, about 10 houses down. He is one year older than me. His best friend lived across the street from me. I can remember summer nights when all the kids in the neighborhood would play “freeze-tag” and “TV-tag”, Mike was there. I remember the very first time I played soccer and it was with Mike and his friends Tony and Tommy. Tony ran into the yard light post in Tom’s yard by accident, and I had never seen so much blood in my life.

In grade school, they divided the T-Ball team up into two teams because there were so many kids. My Dad was coach of one team; Mike’s Dad was the coach of the other team. One day I was walking home from practice by myself. An older kid who had gotten kicked off the team for missing practice among other things accosted me. He pushed me down and threw my ball and glove down the street. I cried for a few minutes (hey, I was 6) and got up. Up came Mike and Tony. They brought me my glove and gave me a pep talk about how good I had been playing, how neat it was to have your Dad coaching you, and how we should all be looking forward to playing real baseball soon. I realized years later they had probably seen everything unfold from down the street, and where trying to cheer me up.

As the years went by, Mike’s ability in sports was more and more evident. I remember in the 5th grade, we would have these epic snowball fights sometimes. The 5th graders vs. the 6th graders, ya know? Mike hit me with a snowball so hard, even from across Ridgecrest Drive it gave me a welt the next day. That kid had an awesome arm. As we grew older, Mike became the Big Jock at school, and I developed a love for heavy metal and playing guitar, grew my hair long and dropped out of sports. However, my brother played halfback in high school – 2nd stringer behind Mike Lansing. So I would go to the games, and wondered why my bro, who was 4 inches taller and outweighed him by at least 25 lbs, was only running back kicks instead of starting. But Mike was busting gains. I’m pretty sure he was All-State - on a team that went undefeated and took the state title.

After high school, our paths took completely different routes. Mike attended college, where he starred at Wichita State and pursued his dream to play baseball. My life led to California, where I pursued my own, more difficult dreams. However, I still followed him. I hung out with a tough crowd then – a crowd that did not care much for any sport the Raiders didn’t play. But I remember when Mike made his Major League debut. He batted leadoff and went 1 for 5. One of his next games later that month, in front of a number of folks who drove the 200+ miles to Denver to see him play against the Rockies, Mike had five hits in one game. I clipped the box score and showed all my friends. “This is My home-boy”. I was proud of him. He had made his dream come true. He is an inspiration to all who come from small Nowhereville towns across the country. Anybody can make it if they try hard enough.

Mike had a decent career. Never outstanding, but decent. He was part of the 1994 Expos, who had it not been for the strike, almost certainly would have won it all. His best year came with the Expos in 1997, hitting 20 home runs. Later in his career, he returned home (almost) to play for the Rockies. By this time, however, injuries were beginning to take their toll on him and his play slowly deteriorated. He signed a big contract (6 million a year) in 2000 to play for the Rockies and even hit for the cycle on June 18. But he wasn’t the same player he used to be, and shortly thereafter was traded to the Red Sox. He was released after the 2001 season after another subpar year.  He tried to latch on with the Indians in 2002, but was unable to make the team.

That same year, back in Casper, a new ballpark opened. Casper was always supportive of minor league franchises, but never had the economy to support one for very long. A CBA team came and went in the 80s – but finally in 2001 there was enough to support a A league baseball team. The Casper Rockies were born. The name of their new field, a beautiful little ballpark on the edge of town, was named Mike Lansing Field. Visit here to see some pictures; it’s really nice. http://www.digitalballparks.com/Pioneer/CasperInfo.html.

Then yesterday, I saw his name on “The List”. He very probably was the last person I expected to see on the list when I clicked on the page to view it. This morning, as I do most every morning, I opened up SI.com. Of course, the front page story – The Mitchell Report and it listed a bunch of names. Only one on that list jumped right out at me. Not Bonds, Clemens, nor even Tejada. Mike Lansing. This is what I found:

According to [Kirk] Radomski, he was introduced to Lansing by David Segui while Segui and Lansing played together with the Expos. Radomski recalled that he engaged in four to five “small transactions” with Lansing. Radomski said that Lansing was familiar with testosterone and “knew exactly what he wanted.” Radomski produced two $1,000 money orders from Lansing, retrieved from his bank, made payable to Radomski; both were dated February 5, 2002… Radomski stated that this payment was for testosterone and one kit of human growth hormone. During the search of Radomski’s residence, an undated, partial shipping label was seized with Lansing’s name on it and a Colorado address. We have confirmed that Lansing resided at this address when he played with the Rockies. Lansing’s name, with an address and two telephone numbers, is listed in the address book seized from Radomski’s residence by federal agents.

So he is now a “cheater”. A shame to baseball and the great American game. No better than Bar-roid Bonds himself. What do I think? What I think is, Mike was trying to revive his career long enough to get another couple of years out of it. He had been injured a lot, and although illegal, was using HGH to recover from injury. Enough to keep playing the game I know he loves. So do we strike his name from the record books? Does his hitting for the cycle on June 18, 2000 get taken away? I suppose at this point the Mob mentality is that all these guys are blatant criminals and we should think of them as destroyers of the game.

He is not. Even though I haven’t spoken to him in over 20 years, there is one thing I am absolutely positive of. Mike Lansing loves Baseball. The Mitchell Report absolutely does not change my opinion of him NOT EVEN ONE IOTA. Mike is a real person, a person I admire and still do. And probably many of you would have done exactly the same thing as Lansing did in the same circumstance.

Hanshin Tigers Closer Fujikawa Eyeing MLB

The Hanshin Tigers closer Kyuji Fujikawa (27), who will be eligible for free agency in 2011, has asked the club to put him on the posting system next off-season. But unfortunately for Fujikawa the Hanshin Tigers rejected his request outright. This is a tough break for Fujikawa. Scouting reports were stating he could have an immediate impact for a major-league club, and that would have meant a nice payday.

Hanshin Tigers Hope to Acquire San Francisco Giant RHP Atchison

Rumors are swirling that Hanshin is negotiating with RHP Scott  P. Atchison. The Hanshin Tigers believe that Atchison can be a productive starter that will give the team quality starts and a eat up a lot of innings. The 31 year old has a 4.10 ERA and 1.368 WHIP with 70 strikeouts in 68 career major league innings. He has a 3.83 ERA and 1.3 WHIP with 658 strikeouts in 771.2 innings in the minors.

Yakult’s Aoki Puts His Desire to Go to the Majors Under Seal

Yakult Swallows outfielder Norichika Aoki, who has been compared to Ichiro, said he will temper his desire to play in the major leagues next season. What this means is he will not ask the club to put him on the posting system. Aoki has said he will concentrate on his all-around play in the NPB games. 

Hiroshima Acquires Three New American Pitchers

The Hiroshima Carp announced that the club had signed three new pitchers:

• Kansas City Royals, long relief/starting pitcher Colby Lewis to a one-year deal worth 90 million yen (US $820,000). The 28 year old Lewis is 12-15 with a 6.71 ERA and 1.813 ERA in 217.3 major league innings. He is 47-33 with a 3.54 and 1.23 ERA in 787.2 minor league innings.
• New York Yankees, AAA affiliate Scranton Wilkes- Barrow, LHP Ben Kozlowski to a one-year deal worth 55 million yen (US $500,000) with club option for the second year. The 27 year old Kozlowski has a 43-45 record with a 3.43 ERA and 1.32 WHIP over 880 minor league innings.
• Arizona Diamondbacks, AAA affiliate Tucson Sidewinders, RHP Michael Alan Schultz to a one-year contract worth 40 million yen (US $360,000). The 28 year old Schultz is 13-18 with a 3.88 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 348.1 minor league innings. He’s walked 173 and struck out 279.

Sources: 12.13.2007 print and online version of Nikkan Sports Newspaper and 12.13.2007 print and online edition of Sports Hochi Newspaper

The other day when I submitted my article on Brian Sabean being the worst GM, I had no idea of his involvement with steroid complicity. Now that the Mitchell report has come out, detailing his knowledge of the situation and failing to be upfront about it with MLB or his own owner, how can Peter Magowan not fire him?

Here are some gems from the report:

1. The Giants trainer Stan Conte (not the BALCO guy) told Sabean of his concerns about Anderson, and Sabean shamefully told Conte to deal with it himself:

During spring training, Conte met with Giants general manager Brian Sabean to express his concerns about the presence of Anderson and Shields in the clubhouse, weight room, and other restricted areas. Conte felt strongly that personal trainers should not have such access, particularly where, as here, he viewed the trainers to be unqualified. Sabean told Conte that if Conte objected to Anderson and Shields being in the clubhouse, Conte should order them out himself. Conte said he would do this if Sabean would support him when Bonds complained, which Conte believed would be the result of his actions. Sabean did not respond to this request for support, leading Conte to believe that Sabean would not do so if Bonds protested. Conte therefore decided to take no action to deny Anderson or Shields access to restricted areas.

[Note:] Sabean did not recall such a conversation with Conte in 2000 about either Shields or Anderson. Giants assistant athletic trainer Dave Groeschner confirmed Conte’s recollection of events.

2. Here is the most damning revelation about Sabean. Magowan said Sabean told him he wasn’t aware of any steroid problems the Giants had, when he obviously did (see point number one and number three). Sabean denied that conversation took place. Someone is lying, and usually the big boss wins that battle no matter who is telling the truth. Here’s the transcript from the Mitchell report:

Peter Magowan, the Giants’ managing partner and chief executive officer, recalled asking Sabean directly whether the Giants “had a problem” after reading the news reports of the BALCO raids. Magowan said that what he meant by his inquiry was to ask whether the Giants had a problem with Anderson dispensing steroids; he wanted to know whether Sabean had any reason to know of such a problem. According to Magowan, Sabean responded that he was not aware of any problem the Giants might have. However, Sabean strongly denied that such a conversation occurred.

3. Here’s another example of Sabean passing responsibility of steroids to the Giants trainer and washing his hands of the problem. It also demonstrates his cowardice in his approach to Barry Bonds.

In August 2002, the Giants were visiting Atlanta for a series with the Braves. At the time, Anderson was traveling with the Giants. Conte recalls that during this series a Giants player asked Conte about anabolic steroids. Conte refused to identify the player to us, citing athletic trainer privilege. According to Conte, the player told him that he was considering obtaining steroids from Greg Anderson and wanted to know the health issues associated with the use of steroids. In response, Conte explained at some length the health hazards of steroid use and lectured the player about the unfairness to other players posed by the illicit use of steroids.

Conte believed that it was “a good lecture” and that he put considerable doubt in the player’s mind. Conte stated that he reported the incident to general manager Brian Sabean within an hour of its occurrence. He told Sabean he was concerned that Anderson might be distributing steroids to Giants players. While he refused to identify the player who had approached him, Conte otherwise described the conversation to Sabean in detail. Sabean suggested Conte confront Anderson and Bonds about the matter, which Conte refused to do. In Conte’s view, it was not the responsibility of the athletic trainer to address such an issue.

Sabean confirmed in his interview that Conte’s recollection of their conversation was accurate. He also acknowledged that he did not raise the issue with Bonds or Anderson. Instead, he asked Conte if he knew anyone who could “check out” Anderson. Conte said that he knew a Drug Enforcement Administration agent, and Sabean suggested Conte call the agent to check into Anderson. The DEA agent later told Conte that he did not find any information about Anderson. Conte relayed this to Sabean.

Sabean told me that he believed that if Anderson was in fact selling drugs illegally the government would have known about it. So when he received the report from Conte, Sabean did not report the issue to anyone in the Giants organization or the Commissioner’s Office, he did not confront Bonds or Anderson, and he did not take any steps to prohibit Anderson from gaining access to Giants facilities.

Sabean said that he was not aware at the time of the Major League Baseball policy that required him to report information regarding a player’s drug use to the Commissioner’s Office. Sabean explained that he was in a very difficult situation regarding disclosure of this information because, as a result of the clubhouse culture in baseball, he felt he could not risk outing” Conte as the source of the information. He said that if he had insisted on Anderson’s ouster from the clubhouse, Bonds would have vigorously objected, just as he did when the Giants tried to bar Harvey Shields in response to the later (February 2004) mandate from the Commissioner’s Office barring personal trainers from restricted areas.

Look, Sabean wasn’t the only GM who knew about steroids. But he was one of two GMs (Steve Phillips was the other) who actually had a steroid dealer working out of the teams clubhouse and, this is the kicker, Sabean knew it. And then he might have lied to the owner about his knowledge. Sabean survived the Nathan/Bonser/Liriano trade and the Zito signing – will he survive the Mitchell report?

In the events leading up to the release of the Mitchell Report, the population of fans that cling to their favorite player/team’s every move, like a first grader to his/her teacher’s leg, held their collective breath as faux lists and conspiracy theories swirled. The names on these lists contained star players and no names, some retired, some deceased, a few relief pitchers and a mascot (I think).  The hype was intense.

The fact of the matter is that the Report reads more like a conversation in a crowded women’s room than a legal document presented by the former Senate majority leader of the United States. The report is immense in size, all 409 pages (including indicies, appendicies and title page) of it, yet never really gives you anything that is substantial. Most of the names contained stays within a small web of players that can be traced to one man, Kirk Radomski, and never really ventures too far out of New York. You have the story of BALCO in the beginning and some references to Jose Canseco and his book “Juiced” towards the end, but other than that, the only other readable section is the seven pages on Roger Clemens, and that’s only because it’s a unique and entertaining look into the life of a star baseball player in the late 90’s.

The question, of course, is how much of these stories are true? How much proof is there that this information is true? Of course it states that the information was presented under the pretense that the informant knew that if he “lied” then he could be held in obstruction. It doesn’t state that the photocopies of checks and the links from player to player are from Radomski’s contact list obtained as the result of an investigation and he had to give a little to avoid being prosecuted. He gave a little and the underlying connections were assumed from there.

Unfortunately for Senator Mitchell, he was faced with an uphill battle. He could not subpoena anyone to speak to him and if they did agree to speak to him, like Jason Giambi did, he didn’t have to tell the truth if he didn’t feel like it. No one, other than Giambi, even chose to speak to him, so that just shows how legally binding this document actually is. You could break this down in every different direction and clearly see that there’s not a whole lot of substantial evidence on any one of the names mentioned in the Report. What will come out of this report are the suggestions Sen. Mitchell makes as to how to handle the problem going forward.

I enjoyed the hype, especially when I reassured one crazy Red Sox fan that Jason Varitek’s C on his jersey won’t be taken away because he was on a fake list, but I was certain that the Senator, who was doing this part-time, wouldn’t be able to gather anything more than what we all already knew: Steroids were a part of the game, players used them, and owners knew it and no one cared. The government stepped in and struck fear in the Commissioner. He did what he had to do and constructed an investigation headed by a Senator who happens to be a director of a major league franchise. The report named names and tells stories of steroid use. The Commissioner makes a statement saying that he’s “going to deal with each case independently” while the Executive Director of the MLBPA makes a statement saying that he “hasn’t had a chance to read it” but intends to at some point.

Don’t bother Donald, it’s doesn’t live up to the hype. I’m pretty sure Wally the Green Monster used steroids and nobody mentioned him.

Overall, I’m not that impressed with the Mitchell report from an investigative viewpoint.  Much of the player-specific allegations are based entirely on hearsay of a some individuals who have something to gain by their “testimony.” As it stands now, I’m not prepared to consider any of the mentioned players guilty, except, of course, for those for admitted steroid use. I am, however, highly inclined to consider those players who wrote checks (unbelievable!), pending their responses. Perhaps they can provide some justification.  

Somewhere in the Hamptons, Dan Duquette might be cracking a smile in is robot-like exterior. It turns out that he might have been right in 1996 when he infamously stated that 33 year old Roger Clemens was in the twilight of his career. Duquette has taken his lumps for that, as Clemens went on to win 162 games and four CY Youngs.

According to the Mitchell report, Clemens used steroids starting in 1998 and continuing into his Yankees tenure. But the “evidence” on Clemens seems pretty weak. It’s based entirely on information provided by trainer Brian McNamee, who had an agreement with the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Northern District of California: give truthful information and he wouldn’t be charged with anything. I think a defense lawyer could shred this “testimony.”

If the report isn’t true, maybe we’ll see Clemens come back in 2008, intent on proving that he doesn’t need steroids to be a success even at age 45. Maybe we’ll also see some legal action.

Ed Wade, GM of the Houston Astros, and Brian Cashman, GM of the Yankees, probably had to take a few extra Tums yesterday. Wade just traded five players for Miguel Tejada, who was in the Mitchell report. Tejada’s regression the past few years might now be explained by a lack of steroids, and that could point to a continued decline for Tejada in 2008 and 2009. Cashman just re-upped Andy Pettitte, also mentioned in the report, for 2008 for $16M. Maybe it’s coincidence that Pettitte inked the deal before the report.

One name in the report I found interesting was Randy Velarde. Upon hearing his name I immediately thought, “that explains his 1999, which was a major outlier in his career performance. That year Velarde produced .317/.390/455, compared to his career numbers of .276/.352/.408. The differences between those two sets of numbers were significant, but not huge. The disparity came in his durability. He played in 156 games in 1999, getting 631 at bats and 200 hits. The next best numbers of his 16-year career? 136/530/151 in 1996, then 122/485/135 in 2000.

But then I read more about the “proof” for Velarde:

Randy Velarde admitted to us, through his lawyer, that he had used performance enhancing substances he obtained from Greg Anderson. According to his lawyer, if interviewed, Velarde would have told us he received the “cream” and the “clear” from Anderson in a transaction that occurred in a parking lot during spring training in 2003. Velarde was playing for the Oakland Athletics at the time, was near the end of his career and was attempting to play for another year to support his family.

I don’t know about you, but this “proof” isn’t that compelling to me. If Velarde’s lawyer hadn’t said anything, he wouldn’t have been in the report.

Gary Bennett didn’t get the good stuff. The catcher reportedly received growth hormone in 2003, when he produced a .238/.296/.306 line in 307 at bats for San Diego. Those numbers were actually below his career line of .242/.303/.327.

A lot of players from the Giants, Orioles, Mets and Yankees were mentioned. The Giants’ locker room seems like it was particularly out of control and unmanaged. There has been harsh criticism of Brian Sabean on this website, and perhaps it needs to be even harsher. Another article on Sabean and the Mitchell report will be published soon.

I hope David Segui got referral fees. He was mentioned a lot in the report as connecting players with the dealers.

Memo to baseball players who want to cheat: don’t write a check. This now is included in my “How to Succeed in Being a Criminal” guidelines, which includes such gems as “If you rob a place, don’t leave the door open when you leave, thus immediately alerting everyone to the crime.”

Overall, the Mitchell report might be a beginning rather than an end. We might have responses from the players and additional allegations. Maybe we’ll have legal action by the Players’ Association and individual players against Mitchell and MLB.

The Pittsburgh Pirates organization ends up looking like a solid citizen after the first analysis of the Mitchell Report.  The only Pirate players alleged in the report to have purchased illegal substances while playing for the Pirates were journeyman catcher Tim Laker, middle reliever Josias Manzanillo, and first baseman Kevin Young.  Other former Pirate players alleged to have purchased illegal substances while with other teams include Denny Neagle, Ron Villone, Jason Christiansen, and Gary Matthews, Jr.  It is worth noting that Matt Lawton tested positive for steroids in November 2005 while with the Yankees and served a 10-game suspension in 2006.  Lawton played for the Pirates during the first-half of the 2005 season. 

Tim Laker played in 14 games for the Pirates in 1998 and six games in 1999. Laker admitted to purchasing testosterone and syringes from Mets clubhouse attendant Kirk Radomski while with the Pirates on a road trip to play the New York Mets.  Importantly, the Mitchell Report says “Laker said that he did not discuss his performance enhancing substance use with any of his club’s coaches or management.”

Josias Manzanillo pitched as a middle reliever for the Pirates from 2000-2002, having very good years in 2000 and 2001.  He is alleged to have been injected with steroids by Radomski in 1994 while playing for the Mets.  Interestingly, this is the only time Radomski ever recalls personally injecting a Major League Baseball (MLB) player (Manzanillo denies ever taking performance enhancing substances). 

While playing for the Pirates in 2001, Manzanillo is alleged to have received anti-inflammatory medications brought from Mexico by Jose Cervantes.  According to the Mitchell Report, Cervantes was “detained by a resident security agent at the Angels? stadium in Anaheim” and found in possession of prescription drugs which he admitted were purchased in Mexico and then sold to MLB players. Manzanillo’s name and phone number were found in Cervantes’ cell phone, though Manzanillo denies involvement.

This incident should have been known to Pirates management as the baseball Commissioner’s Office has records of the incident.  The Pirates released Manzanillo in November 2001, but then resigned him during March 2002, only to release him again in August 2002.

Most damning from the perspective of the Pirates organization is the revelations concerning Kevin Young, a long-time Pirate and team leader. Young played for the Pirates from 1992 through 2003, with the exception of the 1996 season when he was with the Kansas City Royals.  Young is alleged to have purchased two kits of human growth hormone from Radomski during the 2000-2001 offseason. 

Young is alleged to have purchased “five or six” human growth hormone kits from Radomski during the 2003 season to help recover from lingering injuries.  The Pirates released Young on June 29th of 2003.  Young did not respond to requests to meet with Mr. Mitchell.  As an acknowledged clubhouse leader on Pirate teams in the late ’90’s and early 2000’s, his alleged use of performance enhancing drugs taints the organization as a whole. 

Given the small sample size of players, it is difficult to make sweeping judgments concerning any organization, but based on the Mitchell Report alone, the Pittsburgh Pirates organization does not appear to have had widespread use of performance enhancing drugs during the 1990’s and 2000’s.  I will leave it to others to decide if that explains why they have not had a winning season since 1992…

With apologies to Jon Daniels, who was in the running before a not-bad signing of Milton Bradley, San Francisco General Manager has earned himself the title of Baseball’s Worst GM effective December 12, 2007.

Where do I start? I’ll get to the Rowand signing and the willingness to trade Lincecum and Cain, but first, let’s set the background.

First of all, you’ve assembled a terrible team. In 2007, you had these gems:

• 1B: Ryan Klesko (.745 OPS) and Rich Aurilia (.672!)
• 2B: Ray Durham (.638)
• 3B: Pedro Feliz (.708)
• SS: Omar Vizquel (.621 – I know he’s about defense, but if the rest of the team can’t hit, try to get some offense here)
• OF: Dave Roberts (.695)
• SP: Barry Zito (no one in baseball thought this was a good move; I won’t go further into this because it would take up the whole article)

Second of all, you must have help down on the farm, right? Because Klesko, Feliz and Barry Bonds are all going to be gone. I’m not a Giants minor league expert, so excuse me if I commit some gaffes here. But to determine if there is help on the farm, I went to www.baseball-reference.com and did some stat searching. You’ve got a third basemen – Scott McClain – at AAA that can mash, but wait… he’ll be 36 next year. That’s a good use of a minor league roster spot.

You’ve got a decent outfielder – Justin Leone – at Fresno who had a .881 OPS. Oops, he’ll be 31 next year. You do have another promising outfielder in Nate Schierholtz, I’ll give you that. He’s young (23) and had an AAA OPS of .925 last year. He doesn’t walk enough (only 19 in 523 combined at bats), but he’s got some promise.

Maybe you’ve stocked Fresno with insurance players, like the Red Sox do so well. Maybe you’ve got some guys tucked away in AA. Of course, insurance only really matters if you’re a good team. Why have insurance for a bad team?

Let’s look at your AA team – the Connecticut Defenders. A strategically located minor league affiliate if I’ve seen one! Justin Hedrick and Alexander Hinshaw both appear to have some potential as relievers. John Bowker has some potential as a mid-level power outfielder. Eugenio Velez might have promise as a light-hitting, speedy second baseman.

Bottom line is that you don’t have much in the minors that will be contributing at the major league level for the next couple of years. Again – I’m not a Giants minor league expert; I’m just looking at the numbers. So any experts out there, let me know if I’m missing something.

So on your major league roster, you’ve got just six guys who have real value, where “real value” is defined as someone other teams would definitely be interested in:

• RF Randy Winn
• C Bengie Molina
• SP Matt Cain
• SP Todd Lincecum
• RP Brian Wilson
• OF Nate Schierholtz

Plus three guys who might have some value:

• RP Brad Hennessey
• RP Kevin Correia
• OF Fred Lewis

Add in the fact that there’s not much ready down on the farm, and things aren’t looking too good for the Giants for the next several years. So what should Sabean’s plan be? Rebuild and re-tool, with the goal of competing in 2010. Nothing Sabean can do in the next couple of years in the way of trades and free agent signings will help achieve what should be the Giants’ goal – and that should be winning the division.

Here’s what your plan should be:

1. Trade Winn, Molina, Hennessey, Correia and Lewis for whatever prospects you can get – prospects that will be ready in two years. Get prospects who are 1-3 years away from contributing. I know, you won’t get much for these guys, and it will make a bad team even worse next year. But keeping them won’t help them win the division.
2. Place more emphasis on drafting and developing good young players. Seems like I shouldn’t have to say that.
3. At the end of 2009, start promoting those minor leaguers who can help starting in 2010. For those prospects who don’t project to be in the majors until 2011 and beyond, trade them for young major leaguers or prospects who are ready to compete.
4. Hope that Lincecum and Cain develop into aces.
5. Hope that Wilson develops into a stud closer.
6. Sign free agents in the offseason before the 2010 season, when you have more financial flexibility because you’ll have so many young players.

That’s how you should do it, and, really, it’s the only way of truly trying to win.

So what have you done this off season?

1. You were (according to reports) interested in signing Hideki Matsui. Why? If it’s because you think he’ll keep people in their seats while you rebuild, then kudos to you! Well thought out. But if it’s because you think you can win next year or in 2009, then, sour grapes to you. It will be a waste of money.
2. You were (according to reports) willing to trade Lincecum or Cain – possibly for Alex Rios or Matsui. Why??????? These two are your future, part of the re-building plan. If it is true you were considering this… I don’t know what to say.
3. You signed Aaron Rowand – for five years! It’s not so much the money that bothers me, though I don’t think Rowand is worth $12M a year, but it’s those years. Did you realize that Rowand will be 31 at the end of next season? (That means he’ll be 36 at the end of the contract.) Did you realize he plays with reckless abandon, meaning he’s more prone to getting hurt? Did you know he’s coming off a career year? Perhaps not.

Last year, hitting behind Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard and ahead of Pat Burrell. In 2008, when he’s hitting behind Dave Roberts, Omar Vizquel and Randy Winn and in front of Bengie Molina, he’s going to give you 18 home runs and 70 RBIs (along with great defense) and .280/.325/.440. By the last year of his contract, you’ll be lucky to get 140 games of .270/.317/.420.

Overall, you’ve put yourself in a terrible position of having to pretend to contend in 2008 because you’ve done such a bad job drafting and developing players. To pretend, you’ve signed Rowand – a waste of the owner’s money since it may get you third place at best in the AL West. I’m sure the owner and fans will be thrilled with that.

And if you’re not pretending to contend, that means you actually think you’re going to contend in 2008 with the signing of Rowand. I don’t know which is worse.

Oh – Ed Wade – I hear you chuckling when reading this. Don’t. You’re headed down the same path.

Hideki Matsui has been rumored to be on the trading block, possibly to San Francisco. Let’s try to understand why.

One potential reason is that the Yankees might be expecting a drop off in production from Matsui, who will be 34 next year. But looking at his statistics, I don’t see a big decline, if any, coming.

• 2003 .287/.353/.435
• 2004 .298/.390/.522
• 2005 .305/.367/.496
• 2006 .302/.393/.494
• 2007 .285/.367/.488

Perhaps they’re looking at moving Matsui so they can move Damon to left field. The Yankees have realized Damon can’t play center field every day at this point in his career, and perhaps they’re looking for a place to put him. With Damon in left, Giambi stays at DH, but that still leaves a whole at first. I’m surprised the Yankees haven’t addressed first base yet. Despite their overall offensive performance last year, the Yankees got some of the worst production in the majors from first (manned by Josh Phelps, Andy Phillips and Doug Mientkiewicz).There was some talk last year about Damon playing some first, but evidently the Yankees didn’t think that would work.

So with Melky in center and Abreu in right, someone out of Matsui, Damon and Giambi doesn’t have a spot. Frankly, I’d keep Matsui over both Damon and Giambi. The numbers the last two years:

Damon (will be 34)

• 2006: .285/.359/.482
• 2007: .270/.351/.396

Giambi (will be 37)

• 2006: .253/.413/.558
• 2007: .236/.356/.433

Ideally, they’d trade Giambi, but with his past and his salary ($21M), he’s untradeable. Damon is much more reasonable at $13M, but with his tail-off in 2007, the Yankees would have to partially pay someone to trade for him. So that leaves Matsui, who will also get paid $13M in 2008. Matsui is the best of the bunch, so he’ll get the most in return.

If the Yanks can pry Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum away from the Giants as the rumors suggested, then Cashman would have pulled off a great trade. He could then package one of those with Hughes and some others to get Santana.

The problem the Yankees are facing is that they have too many older, highly paid veterans – all around the same age. They are paid too much to have value to other teams, so when they start to fade, the Yankees are stuck with them along with roster and financial inflexibility. Understanding this is why Cashman has made such an effort to hold on to his prospects.

If the Yanks were to trade Matsui, then there outfield is going to be pretty vacant soon. Abreu has one more year, and Damon two, leaving Cabrera the only outfielder on the current roster who projects to be there in 2009. Down on the farm, there is Jose Tabata, for whom the Yanks have high expectations. I don’t share those expectations – I think he’s immature. Another prospect is Austin Jackson, whom I like a lot, but he’s at least two years away.

And what of the Giants? They desperately need more production at the plate. Matsui would fell in the line-up and the Bay Area, and his Japanese heritage would be extremely marketable there. Now if the Giants were to trade Cain or Lincecum for him, that wouldn’t make sense. The Giants need to re-build, and trading a young number one or two isn’t re-building. Noah Lowry would make more sense. Trading Zito for Giambi or Damon would make even more sense, as it would get rid of that albatross.

The Houston Astros have completed a trade for Baltimore Orioles shortstop, Miguel Tejada. This is the first of a few possible moves for Baltimore in attempts to dump as of many of their large salary players in attempts to rebuild a franchise that has fallen from grace in recent years.

With this move, Baltimore has taken the first step in rebuilding – and what a step it was.

Houston traded five players for the star shortstop including every day player Luke Scott and four minor leaguers: Matt Albers, Troy Patton, Dennis Sarfate and Mike Costanzo. In today’s baseball environment giving up this many prospects for a 31 year old, slightly above average shortstop is inexcusable and a colossal blunder for the Astros front office.

Let’s take a look at Tejada’s last three seasons, including his 2007 campaign in which he missed 29 games due to injury

AB R H 2B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG

2005 - 654 89 199 50 26 98 40 83 .304 .349 .515

2006 - 648 99 214 37 24 100 46 79 .330 .379 .498

2007 - 514 72 152 19 18 81 41 55 .296 .357 .442

Of most concern is Tejada’s sub .360 OBP in all but two of his eleven seasons, one of which he tied that number. In fact, his ’06 on base of .379 marked a career high, even in his MVP season (2002) he OBPed .354. Tejada made up for this in the past with great power numbers, low strikeout totals and consistenly hitting 35 doubles. It is clear that the power is starting to fade (36/26/24/18) and the walks are never going to be anything more than pedestrian. While the doubles should still be there, how valuable is a 15-20 HR/20-30 2B hitting SS who rarely walks with a career .821 OPS?

Tejada ranked twentieth among MLB shortstops in BB and twenty-eighth in 2B. His .799 OPS in 2007 was seventh, and his 18 HR’s were good for ninth among MLB shortstops. His numbers should see a slight increase hitting in Houston and in a better line-up, but should only serve to mask his decline. Tejada is about a top 15 MLB shortstop, but at 31, with a lot of games played and a visible decline in numbers, he shouldn’t stay that way for long.

The Tejada part of this trade can be defended to a point – what cannot is the prospect package Baltimore received. While the other players are fine, the centerpieces of the deal are LHP Patton and 3B Costanzo. These were two of the team’s ten best prospects and are, at most, a season away from contributing to the Orioles.

Costanzo, at 23, seems ready after tearing up AA Reading - putting up 29 2B/75 BB/27 HR/.858 OPS. While the strikeout totals are high (157 in 508 AB), they are mitigated by solid walk totals, great power and a serviceable on-base percentage (.368).

Patton, 21, a lefty starter with 445 minor league innings under his belt, could probably start in Baltimore’s rotation next season. In his last 24 starts, spanning 151.1 IP in AA/AAA, Patton recorded a 1.19 WHIP and allowed a paltry 15 home runs. While he only struck out 93 batters over that span, he only issued 44 walks, good for a 2.1:1 K/BB ratio. Two walks, three hits and four to five strikeouts per six innings is pretty good for a 21 year-old.

The Baltimore Orioles acquired two major-league ready players, at valuable positions, along with two other prospects and an every day player for a declining shortstop who made almost $14 million in 2007.

The Astros line-up should be formidable in the NL Central, possibly making them the favorite, with the addition of Tejada to Carlos Lee and the up and coming Hunter Pence. But he is a temporary fix at best. Houston overpaid for another star, as they did with the Lee signing in 2006 and the recent Kazuo Matsui signing this off-season. Mortgaging much of the farm will cost this team in the not-so-distant future and is just one more mistake in an increasingly long line of blunders for the Houston Astros front office.

Twins sign Craig Monroe for approximately $4M.

Ok, maybe it’s me. Maybe I’ve been out of the game way too long. I feel like I need a good dose of reality or a shot of Jack Daniels to make me understand this move here. Craig Monroe doesn’t have a set position for the small-market, cash-poor Twins, yet they’re paying him $4M? That’s equal to 5.5% of their 2007 payroll, for a guy who might be a platoon player at DH and backup outfielder. This doesn’t make sense.

The 30 year old Monroe had some decent years with the Tigers from 2004 to 2006, but he bottomed out in 2007 going .219/.268/.370. Though he began the year as the Tigers leftfielder, they lost faith in him to the point they were willing to trade him to the Cubs in August for a player to be named later (Clay Rapada). And the Cubs wanted no part of him after a .204/.291/.347 performance in 23 games, trading him to the Twins for a player to be named later.

Perhaps Monroe turns things around for the Twins in 2008. But his batting average trend doesn’t make it look good:

• 2004 .293
• 2005 .277
• 2006 .255
• 2007 .219

I’m not sure why the Twins think Monroe will provide value at $4M in 2008. I’m also not sure how an organization as talented in scouting and player as the Twins doesn’t have someone in their system who can at least provide Monroe’s projected production – at about 1/10th the cost.

Unloading Hunter and Santana is an effort at rebuilding in the face of financial constraints. Signing Monroe flies in the face of rebuilding.

Fukudome coming to Chicago to play for Cubs

Kosuke Fukudome said he would make up his mind on a major league team quickly after deciding to come to the United States. And he was true to his word.

After deciding to play in the U.S. early Tuesday morning, Fukudome chose the Chicago Cubs offer on Tuesday night, ESPN 1000 and David Kaplan of WGN Radio in Chicago have been reporting. The reported agreement between Fukudome and the Cubs is for a four-year deal, but the exact dollar amount was still being finalized. Rumors swirled earlier that the Cubs were willing to pay the 30 year old, between $12 million and $14 million per season. The San Diego Padres, Texas Rangers, and Chicago White Sox were also rumored to have interest in Fukudome, who will likely play right field for the Cubs.

Seth Greisinger to join Yomiuri Giants 

The Hochi Newspaper has reported that RHP Seth Greisinger has agreed to a two-year, 500 million yen (US $4.5 million) contract with the Yomiuri Giants.

If you were a GM, who would you rather have close in 2008: Gagne or Lidge? We now join Mr. Gagne and Mr. Lidge at the very end of this www.dugoutcentral.com exclusive fictional debate.  

Moderator: Relievers, your “closing” statements.

Eric Gagne 

I set the MLB record of 84 straight converted saves. I have more career wins (29 to 23), saves (177 to 122) and K’s (680 to 561) while appearing in fewer games than my opponent. Note that the Brewers did not have to give up 3 players for me like Houston had to for Lidge. My opponent will have you look at my recent history in Boston. Let me remind everyone, I am a closer. That is what I do. The Red Sox failed to realize that. Now that I am back in the closer’s role, I will continue to get the job done in the 9th. 

Brad Lidge’s best days are behind him. Albert Pujols just called and wants to know if the ball he hit off of Lidge in the 2005 ALCS has landed yet. My opponent has never been the same after that home run. He converted 71-of-79 save opportunities with a 2.07 ERA before then and 51-of-65 with a 4.37 ERA after that October day. In addition, Lidge has allowed 1.20 home runs per 9 innings since that time. That number will increase playing in Citizens Bank Park. 

And speaking of Philadelphia, Lidge will be scrutinized by an unforgiving fan base who once belted Santa Claus with snowballs. A rough start as closer on the Phillies and Lidge may want to disappear like Steve Bartman did in Chicago.
 
Brad Lidge

From 2004-2007, I saved 122 games to Gagne’s 70. I saved 32 games in 2006 while Gagne got on the field for a total of 1 save. Last season I had more wins (5 to 4) and K’s (88 to 51) and a lower ERA (3.36) than Gagne. I averaged 11.82 strikeouts per nine last year.

Gagne says to look at the stats. How far do we want to go back? I guess Dennis Eckersley refused to come out of retirement so the Brewers signed Gagne. Speaking of signing, Milwaukee will pay $10 million (14% of their payroll) for one year to a guy with a 6.75 ERA in 20 games with Boston. This is a risk. More of a risk when you look at Gagne’s inability to stay healthy. My opponent has gone in for more Tommy John surgeries (2) than Tommy John! While never actually having the procedure done twice, a serious back injury derailed his 2006 season. Gagne started on the DL in 2007 with a leg injury. I feel like Cal Ripken Jr. compared to this guy.

Gagne has thrown close to 200 (198) more innings than me. Now that I am the closer for the Phillies, Brett Myers will return to his role as starting pitcher. Philadelphia strengthened their bullpen AND rotation by acquiring me.  Eric Gagne is your closer if this was 2003. Vote for Brad Lidge in 2008.  

Jay’s Vote

I think Lidge will have more success in 2008 than Gagne. However, if Lidge does not get off to a strong start in Philadelphia he may share the same fate as Santa Claus.

Hideki Okajima was signed by the Red Sox to entice Matsuzaka. A profitable marketing deal was negotiated by the Yankees to get Hideki Matsui. Ichiro’s presence helped lure Kenji Johjima to Seattle.

So what are the Arizona Diamondbacks using to get an advantage in the bidding for free agent pitcher Hiroki Kuroda? DugoutCentral has learned that the Diamondbacks recently hired Mack Hayashi, the former agent to players Johjima and Akinori Iwamura. Hayashi’s official role will be as Pacific Rim scout, but he has no background in baseball or scouting. Hayashi’s true role should be in the recruitment and support of Japanese players. The Diamondbacks wisely feel Hayashi’s presence will aid them in their recruitment of Japanese players.

When a team is thinking of signing a foreign player, be it Japan, the Dominican, or even the heart of Iceland, they need to have a support system set up to protect their investment in that player. Kudos to the Diamondbacks for understanding this.

Who is this guy? Is he the next great Japan star to play in the MLB or the next great bust? It appears that plenty of front office types are putting their butts on the line by being willing to invest millions in him. How does a team decide whether to make an offer to Fukudome, and if so, how much? By answering the following questions:

• What role will the player fill for their team?
• Does his make-up/personality fit with the club, manager and team?
• What is his biggest fear about coming over to MLB?
• What is his perception of the cities he’ll potentially call home?
• What is the biggest reason he wants to play in the States? Is it money, or is it the desire to play against the best?
• What are his physical tools?
• What type of player is he?
• Based on his historical stats in Japan, what is his projected performance in MLB? Ballpark and level of opponent (both in Japan and his potential MLB team) are crucial in making this projection.
• What’s the marginal gain associated with the projected performance (projected performance of Fukudome minus the projected performance of the alternative)?
• What value does the team assign to the marginal gain?
• What value do the other teams bidding for Fukudome assign to their particular marginal gain?
• Based on other teams projected value, what is the expected winning bid?
• Does the value justify the expected winning bid?

The process of crafting an offer for a Japanese free agent is similar to that for a MLB free agent, with the exceptions that a team needs to focus more on the emotional fit and that performance projections need some extra tweaking. Bottom line is that teams need to know who the player is, what the player’s value is, the level of improvement the player will create and what that improvement is worth to the team.

The Cincinnati Reds should trade for both Eric Bedard and Danny Haren. Yes, I’m talking about those Reds that finished fifth place in the quagmire known as the NL Central with a 72-90 record. Why the hell am I suggesting this? Because if they acquired both pitchers, they’d have a better chance than any NL team of making the World Series. And because, as a small market team, the Reds need to take chances in order to beat the big boys.

Both the Orioles and A’s need help at pretty much every position, but young, high-potential pitching needs to be the core of any trade to acquire established starting pitching. And the Reds have those assets. I’ll propose:

• OF Jay Bruce, SP Homer Bailey and two lower level prospects for Bedard
• SP Johnny Cueto, SP Matt Maloney and 1B Joey Votto for Haren

This would pretty much render the Reds’ minor league system impotent for the next couple of years, but they need to take advantage of the small window of opportunity they currently have. Dunn will be gone in a year, you never know how long Griffey will offer value, they won’t be able to afford Brandon Phillips in a couple of years, and Harang and Arroyo will likely be gone after their deals expire after the 2010 season. The Reds will consistently rank at the bottom of the NL in terms of revenue potential, so when opportunity comes calling, the door must be answered, even if there is great risk involved.

These trades would give the Reds the following rotation:

• Bedard
• Haren
• Harang
• Arroyo
• Belisle

That would be the best rotation in the National League – by far. Complement that with an offense that figures to rank between third and sixth in the NL (improvement by Josh Hamilton and Edwin Encarnacion should more than offset an expected decline by Phillips), and the Reds should have a better chance than any other NL team at making the playoffs. The Reds true weakness, middle relief, should be mitigated by the fact that each of their starters would project to pitch over 200 innings.

And If the Reds get to the playoffs, they can go with a three man rotation of Bedard, Haren and Harang. No team, AL or NL, offers a better rotation, unless the Sox acquire Johan Santana and have a Beckett, Santana and Schilling troika. Once you get to the playoffs, it’s largely a free-for-all, but the Reds’ staff would give them more than just a chance at postseason success.

As for finances, I’m going to limit my argument to the expectation that increased ticket and merchandise sales would more than cover the added expense of Bedard and Haren.

As for what to do with Bedard and Haren when they’re free agents, well, you just let them go and collect four high draft picks. Then the trade would look like:

• Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, two lower level prospects, Johnny Cueto, Matt Maloney and Joey Votto for two years each of Erik Bedard and Danny Haren along with two first round draft picks and two second round draft picks.

The deal comes with risk, but the risk is well worth the potential reward. Take your chance, Cincinnati.

Eric Gagne?????? $10M?????????? Aaarrrrghhhhhhhh. Why? I’m not a Brewers fan, but I’m a fan of common sense and making fun of people. Here’s what a fly (my imagination) on the wall told me he heard last offseason in Milwaukee.

December 10, 2006, somewhere in cheeseland

Gord Ash (Assistant GM): “Hey, what were we thinking with that Carlos Lee trade (laughing)?”

Doug Melvin (GM): “I don’t know. I just don’t know. Pass those squeaky cheese curds please.”

Ash: “Mench isn’t any good, and Nix, well, we’ll put him the minors for all of 2007. We’re sure lucky that Cordero emerged as a closer. I didn’t see that one coming.”

Melvin: “I know. We had to double our bratwurst budget when Mench arrived and I thought for sure he’d make up for that with some hits. Boy I was wrong. And Nix, well, I’m gonna be honest. I traded for him because of that name. Laynce Nix! Now that’s a sexy name. As for Cordero, he lost his job as a closer in Texas and then he comes and pitches lights out – who woulda thunk it?”

Melvin: “Look guys, I’ve come to the conclusion after being in this game for a while that closer is an important position. You might even say very important. Turnbow just killed us this past year. It was like he was trying to get me fired. I don’t want to get fired, so let’s come up with an anti-Turnbow plan.”

Dan O’Brien (Special Assistant to the GM): “Good thinking, boss. Hey – do you think Favre is coming back for 2008?”

Melvin: “I really like Cordero, but he’s a free agent after 2007. There is the possibility we’ll lose him.”

O’Brien: “Why would we lose him?”

Dave Lawson (Baseball Analyst): “Uh – because some other team might sign him.”

Ash: “Well we could just offer him more money.”

Lawson: “No, Dan, we don’t have much money.”

O’Brien: “What if we trade Mench and our pre-game meal budget decreases. That should be enough, right?”

Lawson: “Nope.”

Ash: “Oooh – I’ve got an idea. At the end of the 2007 season, let’s offer Cordero a lot of money. Like a lot of lot of money. Then he wouldn’t leave, right?”

Lawson: “Uh, it doesn’t work that way. Plus, Cordero might not pitch well, so we should be thinking about a replacement or backup anyway.”

Melvin: “Good analysis, Dave. So what do we do?”

[long pause]

Lawson: “Well, sir, maybe we could develop a closer?”

Melvin: “You mean through the minors? Right! Reid, do we have any closers in the minors?”

Reid Nichols (Director of Player Development): “No.”

Melvin: “Good work, Reid! You’re on top of things.”

O’Brien: “Hey, look! Gord fell asleep on the couch. That’s funny stuff.”

Lawson: “We could make a trade. Perhaps pick up a set-up guy from some other team we think could close given the opportunity?”

O’Brien: “Like Scott Linebrink? I like that guy a whole lot.”

Lawson: “No – Linebrink appears to be in decline. Decline K/9 ratio, increasing WHIP . Someone else. I’m confident that within the organizations of 29 other teams, we can find someone.”

Melvin: “We’re not making another trade, not after that Lee trade. That’s what got us into this mess.”

O’Brien: “Do we really need a closer?”

Lawson: “It’s probably a good idea.”

Melvin: “Maybe we should just re-sign Kolb to a long-term deal and call it a day. He can close if Cordero can’t.”

Lawson: “No he can’t.”

O’Brien: “Rick Helling can close, I’m sure of it.”

Lawson: “Nope.”

O’Brien: “Hey, the Packers are on in a few minutes. Can we call it a day? I think they have a good shot against the Jets.”

Melvin: “Great idea, Dan!”

Lawson: “Uh - So what did we decide about the closer position?”

[pause]

Melvin: “What the heck – we’ve got plenty of time to worry about that. We’ll get to it right after the game. Who’s got the dip?”

Pags: Decent deal

Gagne can close; he’s proven it. But does that mean he deserves the 10 million? I don’t like the money because he didn’t have any other offers out there, but his arm appeared good enough last season to work. And the Brewers have a gaping hole at closer. If they stuck with Turnbow, they’d be out of the playoff hunt from Day 1.

I’ve always liked Gagne and the fact that he didn’t do very well in Boston in the setup role does not mean that he is a bad pitcher. It means he might be a bad setup pitcher. He’s a closer, and he needs to stay there. Some guys can handle the change; others can’t. Gagne couldn’t.

And throw in the big market/pressure factor. Edgar Renteria played bad in Boston, Jeff Suppan played bad in Boston and Ed Whitson played bad in a big market, too. But they all rebounded after they went to places of less pressure. Maybe it’s the same reason or maybe it was a coincidence.

Bottom line is that Gagne has a good arm and he can close. He has the head on his shoulders to do it. A scout always wants to project a player by observing how that particular guy can handle failure, and that is exactly what Gagne ran into last year. He didn’t run and hide. He faced the most critical, yet supportive crowd in baseball.

As long as the Brewers don’t use him in the 8th inning, Gagne will do fine and will help the Brewers contend in the NL Central. The money was too much, but they can afford it.

Adam: Bad and Awful Deal

This deal is bad and awful on two separate levels. First, the Brewers pulled a Yankee and bid against themselves. You can’t tell me that there were other teams in on the Gagne bidding that were anywhere close to $10M. That money is ridiculous. If Percival is worth $8M over two years, Gagne is worth about $5M annually with some incentives. If I’m the Brewers, I’d rather have Percival at $4M than Gagne at $10M, because that gives me enough to also sign Ron Mahay and Octavio Dotel plus or minus a couple million.

At the same price I’d rather have this bullpen:

• Percival
• Dotel
• Mahay
• Riske
• Turnbow
• Wise

Than the current bullpen:

• Gagne
• Riske
• Wise
• Turnbow
• Shouse
• Spurling

The problem with the current bullpen is that there is no one who can step into the closers role if Gagne’s meltdown continues. With the proposed bullpen, you’ve hedged your bets because both Percival and Dotel can close. Not hedging one’s bets can be especially dangerous for a small market team because they lack the resources to buy themselves out of a problem should a problem (Gagne struggling) occur.

As a side note, I’ll be very interested in seeing what Seth McClung can do with a full season with the Brewers and pitching coach Mike Maddux. You can’t count on him, but he still has a ton of potential.

So we move on to the “awful” portion of this deal. Why, were the Brewers caught with their pants down? Why did they not have a contingency plan for Cordero leaving? Someone in the Brewers organization should have known that there was a good chance Cordero was leaving after the 2007 season. And they should have crafted a plan to deal with it. Instead, they had to throw way too much money at Gagne.

Fan writer Scott Jensen has submitted a follow up to this last point, and it will be posted soon.

Yakult Swallows Acquire Korean RHP Lim Chang Yon

Yesterday the Yakult Swallows announced the club signed South Korean right-handed reliever Lim Chang Yon to a two-year deal worth 89 million yen (US $800,000) plus incentives. The Shallows hold the option for a third year. Lim Chang Yon 31, formerly of the Samsung Lions is side-armer who has posted a career record of 104-66 with 168 saves in South Korea. Lim did have elbow surgery in 2004. In 2007 he posted a 5-7 record with a 4.90 ERA in 40 appearances.

Yokohama BayStars Sign Three American Players

The Yokohama BayStars announced the signing of 3 American players:

RHP Travis Hughes, 29: 07’ Boston Red Sox, AAA affiliate Pawtucket; one-year contract worth 60 million yen (US $545,000) including signing bonus

AAA Stats:

7-6, ERA- 1.91, WHIP- 1.19, IP- 75.1, Ks- 72

OF Larry Bigbie, 30: 07’ Atlanta Braves, AAA affiliate Richmond; no financial details of the deal

AAA Stats:

253/ 325/ 366 OPS- 691, HR- 5

LHP Dave Williams, 28: 07’ NY Mets, AAA affiliate New Orleans; no contract details given

AAA Stats:

3-4 ERA- 3.96, WHIP- 1.16, IP- 61.1, Ks- 38

BayStars will have six American players on their roster with LHP Matt White returning for 2008.

Softbank Hawks Acquire Washington Nationals Restovich

The Softbank Hawks announced today that the club has signed outfielder Michael Restovich. The club did not disclose contract details.  

AAA Stats:

270/ 332/ 503 HR- 20, OPS- 834

Fukudome Favors Coming to MLB

At the end of last week, Fukudome officially notified the Yomiuri Giants, Japan’s golden franchise, that he is turning down their contract offer. By Fukudome declining the Giants offer, it was his first step toward signing a lucrative free-agent contract with a major-league club. Fukudome, 30, is currently rumored to be in intense negotiations with the Cubs, Padres and an unidentified team. Industry insides are hearing that Fukudome could get a deal of 3-4 years at 30-40 million. A career .305 hitter in Japan, averaging 29 homers between 2003 and ‘06, he appeared in only 81 games for the Chunichi Dragons last season due to a right-elbow injury that required surgery.

His decision on whether to join the Cubs, Padres or an unidentified third finalist might come as soon as mid-week or sooner, sources say.

08’ Projected Stats:

265 AVG, .380 OBP, 20–30 HR, 80–100 RBI and 10 SB                           

Chunichi Dragons and ex-Seibu Lion Wada agree to deal

The Chunichi Dragons and free-agent OF Kazuhiro Wada, 35 have come to terms on an agreement for a three-year deal worth 840 million yen (US $7.6 million) base salary plus incentives and a signing bonus.

Yomiuri Giants Relinquished Free Agent OF Fukudome

The Yomiuri Giants, who might be worth as much as some MLB clubs, relinquished their plan to acquire the outfielder. With the Fukudome market now climbing upwards of US $ 9 million annually, the Giants gracefully bowed out. It is believed that Yomiuri’s offer to Fukudome was 600 to 700 million yen/year (US $5.4 million/year to US $6.4 million/year) including incentives and a signing bonus. 

Sources: 12.08.2007, 12.09.2007 and 12.10.2007 editions of Nikkan Sports Newspaper, 12.08.2007 Sports Hochi Newspaper and 12.08.2007 Sports Nippon Newspaper.

Things have been crazy since the end of the World Series. Up until now I have been a quiet observer of baseball’s off season, but I do have a few thoughts about some of the bigger stories. (Let’s be honest, I have been totally and completely consumed by the Patriots’ run at a perfect season. I think about it twenty-four hours a day.) Here is my take on the Johan Santana sweepstakes.

Santana TradeI have read a lot of interesting opinions about this situation, and I think what makes it so intriguing is the different aspects that are involved in the deal. The first and most basic is whether or not the Twins should trade him. This is pretty simple. The Twins have to determine how much it will cost to sign him (right now looks like something around $125 million over six years) and see if they can afford him.

All signs point to them not being able to sign him. With that out of the way they now have to make sure they get the most value in a trade. However, because of Santana’s no trade clause and the amount of money it would take to sign Santana, there are only a handful of teams they can deal with that have both premium prospects (what the Twins would most value in a trade) and the money to sign Santana.

While there have been some rumblings about the involvement of the Angels, for all intents and purposes this has turned into a classic bidding war between the Yankees and the Red Sox. Buster Olney of ESPN.com wrote an article that basically said whichever of the teams lands Santana won’t necessarily be the “winner” of the sweepstakes because of the young talent they will lose.

While I agree that it will take a lot of talent to land Santana, I think the team that gets Santana separates themselves from their rival regardless of what they give up to attain him. Between the two I think the Yankees need him more. The decision of Pettitte to come back helps ease the pain if they don’t get him, but it still does not provide a legitimate top five pitcher that can be an answer for Beckett. Santana could come in and immediately fill that hole. Beckett was the shutdown postseason, big game pitcher that the Yankees did not have.

On the flip side, if the Sox land Santana they put themselves in a situation where they are almost unbeatable in a playoff series if they have their top three starters healthy. I think Santana is the most talented and has the best stuff of any pitcher in baseball, and Beckett is the best big game pitcher of his generation. Putting them at the top of the rotation puts them head and heels over the rest of the league and gives them a gigantic advantage over the Yankees in the biggest unit in baseball: starting pitching.

The last aspect of the deal is the debate of young talent for an established major leaguer. Again there are a number of trains of thought on this topic, but I feel that anytime you can get an established major leaguer (in this case the best starting pitcher in baseball) for prospects you have do it. As a Sox fan there are two examples that I turn to as evidence to prove this point.

The first is Pedro Martinez. Considering how great he was and how long it’s been since we traded for him, it’s hard to remember that at the time there were people who thought the Sox gave up too much for him. Looking back on it it’s obvious that by giving up Tony Armas Jr., Brian Rose, and Carl Pavano the Sox got the better of the deal. Considering none of the prospects really panned out (unless you’re a Sox fan and then you would consider Pavano’s huge contract with the Yankees a great pan out) it’s easy to look back and say, “yeah, the Sox got the best of that one.”

The thing about it is that it doesn’t really matter what happened to the prospects. Pedro was outstanding, the best pitcher I’ve ever seen in my life without question. The bottom line is that even if the prospects became good major league players, none of them were going to provide the impact Pedro did.

That brings us to the second example, which is a case of the prospect actually developing into a great major leaguer. Of course I’m talking about the Josh Beckett for Annabel Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez deal. For the sake of this argument let’s throw out Mike Lowell’s role in the trade because although he has become a crucial member of the Sox, in the trade he was just a salary dump for the Marlins. Sanchez has a no-hitter already under his belt and Ramirez has established himself as one of the best shortstops in baseball.

However, because of Beckett’s performance, especially in the 2007 postseason, there is not a Sox fan in the world who wouldn’t make that trade. The Beckett deal directly impacted the team winning the World Series, and in the end that is what baseball is all about. It is not about developing prospects or keeping “home grown talent” and that is something that has gotten lost in the Santana sweepstakes.

Santana is a guy that can take a team to a World Series Championship, and if he does it, who cares what happens to the prospects that were given up to attain him? Even if a team goes into it assuming the talent pans out and even becomes all-star quality players, if Santana wins a World Series for your team none of that matters. Personally I think the egos of Cashman and Epstein are getting in the way. Both want to be known as GMs “that used great small market strategies for a large market team.” In other words neither wants to be thought of as the GM that lived off his owner’s hefty payroll. (Which is exactly what the both of them are.)

I think the Twins will get the most value this winter as opposed to waiting until the trade deadline in late July. The best offer on the table is the Yankees with Hughes and Cabrera. Ultimately I think the Yankees will get back into discussions with the Twins and Santana will be wearing pinstripes on opening day.

There were reports last week that the Yankees were thinking of signing LaTroy Hawkins. Good move? Bad move? It depends on how the Yanks would use him. He can’t close, which isn’t a problem for the Yanks since they have Mo. But he can’t be relied on to setup, which is a problem because they don’t have a reliable setup man with Joba moving to the rotation. Who is going to be the go-to 8th inning guy? Farnsworth? Vizcaino? I don’t think so.

Hawkins wasn’t able to hold down the closers spot for the Twins or Cubs. He’s been traded straight up for Steve Kline. His WHIP the past three years has been 1.456, 1.459 and 1.229. His strikeout rate has decline to 0.5 per inning. He’s only pitched 56, 60 and 55 innings over the past three years.

Hawkins is not what the richest franchise in baseball needs in critical innings. And he’s not what they should be forced to acquire for middle relief. They should be able to produce middle bullpen help themselves – it is the easiest roster position to develop in baseball.

And this isn’t just an issue with the Yankees. Teams are interested in Fukumori, the Royals signed Yabuta, the Indians Kobayashi, etc. These are middle bullpen guys – players teams should be able to produce on their own. Most teams speak of their commitment to building their farm system. Why can’t they produce middle relievers?

The Baseball Writers’ Association of America made two important decisions this week, both of which demonstrate their institutional arrogance.

First and most importantly, the BBWAA announced that beginning in 2013 they would no longer include players on end-of-season award ballots who have contract incentives tied to those awards. Apparently the ever attentive scribes who belong to this organization are concerned that clauses like this could present a conflict of interest for the membership. I assume these writers went to the Capt Renault School of Investigative Journalism and suddenly find themselves “…shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here”. End-of-season award clauses in contracts have been part of the baseball landscape for at least 20 years. Negotiating such clauses is an essential part of every free agent signing. Why has it taken the BBWAA so long to either notice this trend or grow a conscience?

Does the BBWAA really expect the players and their agents to care about the decision? Why? Why in the world would David Ortiz care if the BBWAA wanted to exclude him from the MVP ballot? Why couldn’t he just tie his incentives to another player of the year award like the Internet Baseball Awards or the Sporting News Player of the Year? The only thing that gives the BBWAA MVP award importance is the fact that MLB recognizes it as the “official” award. How hard do you think it is to change that designation?

This brings me to the real problem with the BBWAA’s decision. It looks like a principled decision but it really isn’t. The BBWAA is saying that these clauses create a conflict of interest for their membership so they must be eliminated or the BBWAA will be forced to take action. That’s arrogant. It’s arrogant because if the writers feel that this situation puts them in a bad position then it’s incumbent upon them to take action to remove themselves from the situation. It’s arrogant to assume that it’s the responsibility of others to provide relief.

There is a very simple solution that clears up the conflict and doesn’t impose a penalty on others by removing a common negotiating tool from the teams and players. The BBWAA should announce that it has asked MLB to no longer use its voting for official end-of-season awards. That would be a principled stand. The BBWAA would be giving up its official standing in the name of something they believe in, not trying to force others to take actions to relieve their members of a potential conflict.

If the BBWAA goes through with this decision, then beginning in 2013 their awards will lose all credibility. The basic assumption when selecting a Most Valuable Player is that every player is equally judged. If the contest starts with an elimination of deserving candidates then it ceases to mean anything. A quick analysis of the top 20 finishers in this year’s AL MVP race finds a minimum of eight players who would have been ineligible for the award under the new rules, and this includes three of the top four vote getters (A Rod, Vlad Guerrero and David Ortiz). Other than the writers themselves, who in their right minds would have bothered to pay attention to the announcement of the 2007 BBWAA AL MVP award if they knew that these three players were ineligible?

The other decision the BBWAA made was to open up its membership to web-based writers. On its face this seems like a positive move and to a large extent it was, but once again they booted an easy ground ball. The only two web-based writers who failed to gain entry into the club were Keith Law and Rob Neyer of ESPN.com. The official reason given for their exclusion was that they don’t spend enough time at the ballpark. I’ll leave aside the “conspiracy theory” that these two are the most statistically-minded of the writers considered for membership and deal only with the official reason because that one is stupid enough.

What possible difference could the amount of time Rob and Keith spend at the ballpark make on their ability to write about baseball? I would argue that in this day and age it’s easier to observe the entire game from the comfort of my own living room than it is from the ballpark. How many games did the average beat writer watch this year from the ballpark? One per night would be a rough guess. Well, through the magic of the MLB Extra Innings package, I got to watch upwards of ten almost every night.

Instead of being forced to watch all of my home team’s games, and whatever opponent they were playing that night, I got to watch all or part of thousands of games. I have to assume that Rob and Keith watched games in pretty much the same fashion. Which method do you suppose provides a broader picture of the entire game?

I’m sure the BBWAA members would argue that you need to be at the games and in the clubhouse to provide an accurate and compelling story of what happened. That only by living and working with the players can a writer truly understand the game. That’s bupkus. Let me ask the BBWAA members a couple of questions. When steroid use became prevalent way back in the mid to late 80’s, where the hell were you? Were you not in the clubhouse and travelling with the teams? Did you not notice the changes in the players? Do you really expect us to believe you heard NOTHING about the possibility of widespread use of performance enhancing drugs?

If it’s not your job to tell the public things they can’t learn just by watching the game then what is it that you do? If you don’t use your access to the game to report on things like the performance enhancing drug problem then why is that access important?

The BBWAA has many members whose work has made the game come alive for thousands of fans like me because they have the power to paint pictures with words or provide insights into parts of the game the casual fan can’t see. It’s a shame that they aren’t as good at making decisions that benefit the game, and it’s inexcusable that these decisions attempt to place their organization above the game rather than the other way around.

Some things to ponder during the off-season:

• Who would rather face J.D. Drew or girl detective Nancy Drew?
• Who would rather face the current Fielder known as Prince or the musical artist currently known as Prince?
• Who would you rather face Japanese pitcher Dice-K or joke pitcher Andrew Dice Clay?
• Who performs better pitcher Jon Garland or singer Judy Garland?
• Which looks better the sweet swing hips of Derrek Lee or the sweet swing lips of Angelina Jolie?
• Who would you rather face, Vladimir Guerrero or Vladimir Putin?
• Who would rather face, Jim Rice or Condoleezza Rice?
• Who would you rather have as your teammate baseball hunk Derek Jeter or Grey’s Anatomy hunk, Derek Shepherd (Patrick Dempsey)?
• Which would you rather have for dinner, Joe Torre or chicken cacciatore?
• With dinner, would you rather have Cole Hamels or cole slaw?
• Who is more likely to fold, the Ben Sheets nine or the Ben Folds Five?
• Who was dirtier, the hustling Trot Nixon or the hustler Richard Nixon?
• Who would you rather be friends with, Braves manager Bobby Cox or Friends star Courtney Cox?
• Who is cuter, pitcher David Wells or Dawn Wells (Maryann from Gilligan’s Island)?
• Who is older, Roger Clemens or Samuel Clemens (Mark Twain)?
• Who would you rather face, “Oh what a tangled web we weave” Mark McGw*re or web slinger Tobey Maguire?
• Who would rather face hit stopper Justin Verlander or hit maker Justin Timberlake?
• Who do you feel more secure leaving your wife around, Derek Lowe or Rob Lowe?
• Who’s had more big hits, Jim Thome or Marisa Tomei?
• Which Massachusetts community would community would you rather live in (Tim) Wakefield or (Mike) Lowell?
• Who would be easier to hit acting like a pitcher Jeff Weaver or Aliens actor Sigourney Weaver?
• Who would rather face artist pitcher Johan Santana or musical artist Carlos Santana?
• Which is more worthless to baseball, low-yield junk Barry B*nds or high-yield junk bonds?

Bill Chuck is the creator of www.Billy-Ball.com and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales” to be published by ACTA Sports, later this year.

Andruw Jones has recently inked a two-year, $36 million deal to play centerfield for the Los Angeles Dodgers. The power hitting, multiple gold glove winner was one of the top free agent position players on the market – even in this year’s deep class of centerfielders. Weeks earlier, former Minnesota Twin, Torii Hunter, signed a five-year, $90 million contract with the Angels.

The Jones/Hunter deals are two sides of the same coin – a foolish contract versus a savvy one.

The three players at the top of the coveted CF position were Hunter, Jones and Aaron Rowand. Hunter and Rowand were coming off career years that were above their career averages. The “contract year” is something that intelligent GM’s are aware of and clever agents attempt to exploit. Hunter was the first of the three to cash in on a contract year.

Hunter is 31 years old and in his eleventh big league season. His 162 game averages over his career compared to his 2007 season look like this

R-88 H-160 2B-34 HR-25 RBI-93 BB-42 OBP-.324 SLG.-469

R-94 H-172 2B-45 HR-28 RBI-107 BB-40 OBP-.334 SLG-.505

Of particular note are his 11 more doubles and 36 points of SLG in 2007 compared to his 162 game averages, and a slight to moderate increase in nearly every other stat. One could argue, rather successfully, that Hunter is due for a decline after 1-2 more slightly above career average seasons, as 2007 was. A 5/$90 million is quite probably a terrible contract for a player nearing the end of his “prime.”

Rowand is even a more glaring example of players playing above their heads and cashing in. Although Rowand remains unsigned, he is looking for a deal in the neighborhood of 4-6 years and $60-80 million - less than Hunter, but comparable. Rowand’s 162 game career average and his 2007 season

R-80 H-145 2B-32 HR-18 RBI-66 BB-31 OBP-.343 SLG-.462

R-105 H-189 2B-45 HR-27 RBI-89 BB-47 OBP-.374 SLG-.515

Rowand inflated almost every relevant offensive stat in 2007, particularly 2B, HR, BB and an almost 90 point increase in OPS. Digging a little deeper, Rowand has also only hit more than 13 homers twice in his seven year career and has only exceeded an OBP of .360 three times. Despite playing in only seven MLB seasons, Rowand is 29 years old and is probably going to remain the hitter his 162 game averages say he is. An argument could be made that a contract for Rowand anywhere near his asking price would be even worse than Hunter’s.

The arguments become more air-tight when Andruw Jones’ numbers are looked at. Jones suffered an “un-career” year in 2007, dipping below a number of his 162 game career averages. Those averages and Jones 2007 campaign

R-96 H-155 2B-30 HR-34 RBI-103 BB-66 OBP-.342 SLG-.497

R-83 H-127 2B-27 HR-26 RBI-94 BB-70 OBP-.311 SLG-.413

What one can glean from this is that Jones had a slightly worse 2007 than his career, most notably the near 100 point drop in OPS. What is reassuring is that the walks and doubles are still there and he still hit for almost as many HR’s as Hunter. Jones is also one year younger than Hunter, while playing in his twelfth MLB season.

The Dodgers recognized all this, but realizing the market for Jones simply wasn’t high, didn’t get coaxed into in 5-6 year deal – a feat considering Jones’ agent is Scott Boras. Instead, the team signed him to a 2/$36 million deal, nearly the same per year average as Hunter. The key is in the length. Once Jones presumably bounces back in 2008-09 and increases the chances of a deep Dodger playoff run, the team can choose to re-sign him. If they feel Jones will drop off after 2010, they can let him cash in on a “contract season” with another club. Best of all, if Jones continues his “decline” his numbers will still be good enough to let the Dodgers compete and not be hampered with 3-4 years of a bad player.

Pags: Not Much Value Here

Recently, someone asked me which team should sign Corey Patterson? My frank answer was that it should be any team with a damn good shrink.

Patterson has as much talent as pretty much anyone in the game, but he can’t seem to turn it over and produce. Why? Because of fear. Patterson is afraid of getting jammed! Unbelievable as it may sound, that’s all that is holding him back. Patterson is a great kid, but unless he overcomes this fear, he’ll never achieve even an average category.

What is his current value? On a championship caliber team (Red Sox, Angels, Detroit, Yankees), he’s a key role or platoon player at best. He cannot play every day on a championship caliber team until he gets over his fear. Key role players earn between $500K and $3.0M, or at least that is what they should be paid.

Some team with holes in the outfield (Rangers or Giants?) will take a chance on him, and they’ll surely be disappointed with the wasted money and roster spot unless Patterson makes an adjustment.

Adam: There’s Still a Little Value There – Deep Down, I Think

Ahh, Corey Patterson. The former darling of Cubs fans from 2000-2002, when he was the next big thing. And the former darling of fantasy baseball fans after a 24 home run, 32 stolen base performance in 2004. And now he’s 28 and coming off a bad year with the Orioles. He’s no one’s darling now.

What’s surprising about Patterson is that he has fixed one of his two big problems from earlier in his career – and that is his strikeout rate. Notice the dramatic improvement in his AB/K ratio:

• 2005 3.8
• 2006 4.9
• 2007 7.1

When you improvement like that, you expect good things to happen, right? Like a corresponding improvement in his AB/BB ratio – his other historical problem. Nope:

• 2005 19.6
• 2006 22.0
• 2007 22.0

Or improvement in his batting average, right? Well, kind of:

• 2005 .215
• 2006 .276
• 2007 .269

As a result, his on-base percentage remains terrible, though it’s still a big improvement over his dreadful 2005:

• 2005 .254 (Wow!)
• 2006 .314
• 2007 .304

What does this mean? He had 29 more at bats in 2007 than 2006 in which he didn’t strike out, thus giving him more opportunities to get a walk or a hit. Patterson didn’t get any more walks, and his batting average declined, so he’s hitting into more outs.

Patterson has fixed a big problem (strikeouts) and it hasn’t helped his bottom line production. Now someone needs to get him to improve that walk rate. Can it be done? Doubtful, yes. Impossible, no. But if he can improve that on-base percentage by .050, then he can be an average player. Maybe even above average. And looking at some of the outfielders who received a lot of at bats last year, that gives Patterson some value.

• Terrmel Sledge .210/.310/.360 in 200 AB
• Trot Nixon: .251/.342/336 in 307 AB (3 home runs!)
• Emil Brown: .257/.300/.347 in 366 AB

I’d rather give meaningful at bats to a guy who at least has a chance to improve rather than a guy I know won’t improve. If I’m San Francisco or Texas, as Pags pointed out, I make a two-year, $5M offer with incentives and get him working with the hitting coach ASAP.

I’m gonna come out and say it: I’m a huge Kerry Wood fan. I have nothing but respect for him. I became a Cub fan around the time of his MLB debut and planned my day so I was free to see him pitch. Most fans remember the 1998 season for Sosa’s home runs, but I bet most got interested in the 1998 Cubs the moment Wood struck out his twentieth Astro batter. The potential for greatness was there but it was not meant to be.

While Kerry Wood’s career may not have panned out as much as all of us in Cub nation would have wanted, there still is hope for him becoming a dominant closer. If one were to look at his past it is easy to see how he got to this point.

Expectations were high for this Texas fireballer and for good reason. In his fifth start in the big leagues, Wood joined a select group of pitchers that have thrown 20ks in a game. His electrifying rookie season culminated in him winning the rookie of the year award and leading the bigs in K/9.

Unfortunately, he had logged some serious innings by this point in his career. Only days after being the fourth overall pick in the draft, he pitched both ends of a doubleheader. This led to a 175-pitch day for Kid K. To put this in even more perspective, the Mariners had King Felix on a sub-100 pitch count and barred him from using his slider and minimized his use of his breaking pitches. At the same age Kerry was having 175 pitch days, Felix was barely allowed to have those many pitches over two starts.

The abuse didn’t stop at high school. Wood had a game in his rookie year where he threw 133 pitches in late August before being shut down for “elbow soreness.” His manager, Jim Riggleman, let him throw 120 pitches or more 8 times in his rookie campaign. Riggleman was fighting for his job and abused his best weapon, Wood. He even had the audacity to bring Wood back to pitch a meaningless game 3 after already being down 2-0. All this led to Tommy John surgery.

After coming back from surgery, Wood was mostly pain free for 3 years. This culminated in him having a dominating 2003 season under dusty baker. But Baker was not any better at handling Wood than Riggleman. During 2003, Wood ranked second in pitches per start. Who was in front of Wood? Mark Prior, but that’s another tale for a different day. Wood averaged 111 pitches per start. Baker let Wood exceed 100 pitches 24 times. After his great and overworked 2003, Wood started his downfall and so went his chances of recapturing his dominance as a starter.

I say as a starter because I believe he has all the tools to become a dominant closer. He has always been a power pitcher and has nasty stuff. Also, since he will only pitch one inning, he can rear back and get some extra life on his fastball.

I would much rather face Dempster than Wood in the ninth. I’m the first to admit that Dempster did a respectable job as closer, but I never felt comfortable with him closing. Not as uncomfortable as I felt when LaTroy Hawkins closed but still not too comfortable. The closer is a position that should make the opposing batter not want to face him, even cause some uneasiness. All the great closers cause this feeling: Rivera, Wagner, and even young Papelbon. Wood would definitely cause this feeling with his +95MPH heat and knee-buckling curve.

Dempster in the rotation might not be for the best, except if it’s keeping the spot warm until Prior returns or a prospect emerges to claim the spot. With Wood closing this lets Marmol be the set up man and pitch the Cubs out of tough spots. That is where his value as a pitcher is at the most beneficial for the club. If Wood were to be the closer, his arm would he saved for those situations and thus kept fresh for the long haul. Even if he fails, he could always switch roles with Marmol. All I’m saying is that he deserves a shot to close.

The reason Wood is still a Cub is due to his loyalty to the organization that has stood by him through all the injuries. Instead of bolting for the highest bidder, Wood opted to stay with the Cubs and signed another 1-year deal with the club. He feels he owes the team for all his injury riddled years and the fans for all the promise he dangled in front of them only to leave it unfulfilled. In this day and age, it is rare for a professional athlete to admit he owes something to an organization. While all this makes him my favorite Cub of all time, his skills are what make him the best option to close for the 2008 Cubs.

Melky Cabrera. Phil Hughes. Robinson Cano. Joba Chamberlain. Ian Kennedy. Those players are the future of the most popular and historic franchise in baseball – the New York Yankees. As the winter meetings heat up and grand prize Johan Santana still remains on the block, the Yankees have claimed they are out of the Santana sweepstakes. With Cano, Chamberlain and Kennedy marked as “untouchables” and the Twins insistence that Hughes/Cabrera/middle level prospect is not enough, it seems as though Santana will not be donning pinstripes next season.

Have the Yankees missed out on the best pitcher of the past decade, possibly to their bitter rival? Or have they recognized and protected the future of the franchise?

Prospects are a funny thing. They are often very difficult to gauge. What is seen as a “high ceiling” can turn into “wasted potential” in a flash. Chamberlain seems like the real deal, posting sublime relief numbers (24 IP, 12 H, 34 K, 6 BB, 0.75 WHIP) in limited major league experience. The most reassuring fact is these numbers match up with his minor league career as a starter (88 IP, 62 H, 135 K, 27 BB, 1.01 WHIP) very closely. Now less than 120 IP against varying degrees of talent and as a reliever as well as a starter should be taken with a grain of salt, but the Yankees would be wise to see how Chamberlain pans out, considering his high K/BB ratios and low WHIP.

Cano has proven he can play in the big leagues at an above average level. Cano has put up .346 OBP/.489 SLG/.835 OPS with 176 XBH over his three seasons and 1600+ AB’s in New York. He needs to walk more (only 73 over three seasons) but is clearly a valuable second baseman and lower-middle of the lineup hitter.

The players in question are SP Kennedy and OF Cabrera. Hughes and Cabrera are/were the major parts of the deal, with the deciding factor being Kennedy. Hughes started 13 games for New York and put up decent, (73 IP, 64 H, 29 BB, 58 K, 1.28 WHIP) if uninspiring numbers. His minor league numbers are much more inspiring (275 IP, 171 H, 66 BB, 311 K, 0.86 WHIP) over 53 starts and four seasons. Hughes is probably 1-2 more full seasons away from adjusting to major league hitting, but should prove to be a solid starting pitcher.

Cabrera has logged over 1000 major league AB’s and, while having room for improvement, may be as good a hitter as he ever will be. His career .728 OPS over 2+ seasons should be higher, but his 99 walks and 75 XBH show promise. Cabrera’s minor league career (1400+ AB, .766 OPS, 117 XBH, and 108 BB over four seasons) tells almost the exact same story. Cabrera does play good defense in the outfield, especially over the rapidly aging Johnny Damon, and has quite an arm (14 assists in CF in 2007, first in MLB) but is only a slightly above average major league outfielder.

Cabrera and Hughes are clearly talented players, with the former big-league ready and the latter close, and have room to grow. But what of the highly regarded Kennedy? With so little big league experience (just 19 IP and as a starter) Kennedy’s minor league numbers are the best barometer. 149 IP, 93 H, 52 BB, 165 K and a 0.97 WHIP are his numbers over two minor league seasons. When looked at side by side with Hughes minor league numbers there is little debate who’s better. Hughes has 126 more IP and yet, only 12 more BB than Kennedy. Their K/BB ratios? Kennedy – 3.2:1 Hughes – 4.7:1.

Now, one could argue scouts have seen more of Hughes and know what he’s going to be – and they’d be right. But we haven’t seen that much less of Kennedy and what we have seen doesn’t warrant the refusal to trade him in a deal for Johan Santana. The same Santana who’s led the AL in WHIP for four seasons running and K/9 IP and K overall three out of the past four seasons.

Kennedy, Hughes and Cabrera may seem like a steep price for Santana, but keep in mind the Yankees would keep their best pitching prospect, land a bona fide ace in his prime to compliment Wang and Chamberlain in the rotation for at least 4-6 years and keep the world champion Red Sox where they are.

This is a deal the Yankees will regret not making.

Join Pags today from 3:00 - 3:30 PM EST for an online chat about Japanese free agents. 

Fukudome, Yabuta, Kobayashi and others could all be playing in the States in 2008. But not all of these players will succeed. So what’s the best way to project them? How will we know who will succeed and who will fail? Let’s look at the recent history:

Successes

• Boston: Okajima/Matsuzaka
• Seattle: Ichiro/Johjima
• Chicago: Iguchi
• NYY: H. Matsui
• St Louis: Taguchi
• San Diego: Otsuka
• Los Angeles Dodgers: Saito
• Colorado: Kaz Matsui

Failures

• Tampa Bay: Mori/Iwamura
• NYY: Igawa
• Oakland: Yabu
• NYM: Kaz Matsui

Some teams do incredible research while others use statistical projections (which never works), but there is little doubt of what is the most important factor when signing a Japanese player. And, that is the player’s commitment level. Every successful Japanese player in the states has been 100% committed to playing here. Being committed means willing to do whatever it takes with respect to the player’s family, living conditions, sacrifice, physical conditioning, etc.

There is certainly more than commitment level to playing baseball at the MLB level. Other factors include skill level and projected role. Take for example Hideki Okajima. If he were to be put in a long relief role or a closer’s role, he’d be out of position and wouldn’t come close to duplicating his 2007 performance. Does that mean he can’t close out a game once in a while? Of course not! But thinking that Keiichi Yabu or Kei Igawa is going to step right in to the middle of a rotation and succeed is not exactly doing the best research.

Considering the investment that goes into to signing and then supporting a Japanese player, here is a check list to ensure proper ROI.

• Never take the word of his agent on the player’s commitment level, or for anything, for that matter
• Never use one scout to evaluate the player; double check and triple check your work
• Identify the player’s commitment level
• Grade the skill level of the player (tools)
• Identify mechanics of the pitcher/hitter and project them to the team’s philosophy
• Project the playing field change and effect (pitching mound, distance to the fence, etc.)
• Project emotional fit with the coaching staff
• Exactly identify the player’s role

Without fully evaluating the above, a team is just throwing a line into the lake and hoping they pull up something edible for dinner.

I believe that there are many different factors when making a selection in the amateur draft. Aside from the obvious such as the player’s physical tools, the first thought has to be the team’s philosophy on college vs. high schools. Other factors to be considered are organizational depth, needs, best available player and the ability to sign the player, which includes who represents the player. Some organizations purposely avoid going after players represented by certain agents. 

It is also generally accepted that top prospect high school players are harder to sign than 3-4 year collegiate players. I find that college pitchers are cheaper, easier to evaluate/predict and are closer to being MLB ready.  However, in my opinion, if the depth is good at all levels, you could possibly take a calculated risk with a “stud” high school pitcher.

There really isn’t any one perfect way to scout amateur talent. The level of competition in both high school and college is too erratic for skills to mean much, so scouting amateur players by their physical tools does make sense. A corollary of this principle is that minor league statistics don’t mean anything. Scouts and baseball people in general have always tended to write off minor league performance when it doesn’t agree with what their eyes tell them.

The Colligate player as a rule is generally more mentally and physically prepared, but more importantly he’s easier to predict and is more cost effective. And with small and mid market teams, and now the larger ones, too, needing to scout and develop their own prospects for various reason, the colligate player most times is a better plan for the draft. Small/mid market teams need to be precise with their resources because there isn’t much room for error. They really can’t afford to make a $1.5 million dollar mistake on a high school pitcher.

Others factors to weigh are college players have already been away from home, traveled on the road, developed acceptable work habits, handled both success and failure while attempting to earn their degrees. There is a certain amount of maturity that translates into developing successful relationships, and it is easier to gauge a player’s character and mental make up as a result. This allows teams the ability to develop their own players that can contribute at an earlier stage in their career.  They become a cheaper alternative to the higher priced Free Agents because you can control them for six years before their own free agency. 

There are times when certain players the team has developed will become “Franchise Type” players and the idea is to then sign them long term, to either buy out the arbitration years or get them done before free agency. This is a practice that not only small/mid market teams are adhering too, but now every team is trying to follow that model to be successful.

AMATEUR SCOUTING

Amateur and Professional Scouting are somewhat different. At the amateur level, I look for tools and I am enamored with projection: wondering what this player will become or what I project him to be. What will his OBP will become? If I could look into a crystal ball and see a finished product with kinks worked out and potential refined. I would be making millions of dollars.

One of the difficulties in my opinion in scouting amateur players is that they are viewed at many levels. There are: Latin players in sub par conditions, seventeen year old HS players in cold climates, junior college players at various programs, and four year college players in ideal settings. Players range from ages 16-23. They come from sand lots, high schools, junior colleges, major colleges, NAIA, and Division III programs. They also come from different countries such as Canada, Europe and the Far East and under all these conditions it is tools that sell the player. That is the common denominator! You can’t hide tools!

At the Major League level and while developing through the Minor Leagues, there will be a history on players. This history consists of:

• Recorded Ages
• Defined Level of Performance
• Knowledge of the Level of Experience
• A Record of Past Production
• Current Statistics.

Webster defines terms that we use in scouting as follows:

• Scouting: To explore, to obtain information, to make a search, to observe, to obtain
• Evaluating: To determine or fix the value, to examine and judge.
• Opinion: Is a view, judgment, appraisal formed in the mind about a particular matter.
• Judgment: The process of forming n opinion by discerning and comparing. A formal utterance of an authoritative opinion.
• Thorough: Carried through to completion, exhaustive. Marked by full detail, painstaking, complete in all respects.

It also defines the following:

• Skills: The ability to use ones knowledge effectively and readily in execution or performance. Developed aptitude or ability.
• Tools: An apparatus used in performing an operation or necessary in the practice of a vocation or profession.
• Aptitude: Capacity for learning, a natural ability, talent, inclination, tendency appropriateness, keenly intelligent. Suited to its purpose. Having a habitual tendency or inclination.

All of the above terms are used by scouts and by the players that are scouting.

What you may see are parallels of how to get a job done and how to arrive at an opinion. Keep in mind, what teams are ultimately looking for are productive Major League players.

Yakult in Negotiations with Korean free-agent Kim Dong-Ju

The Yakult Swallows are currently in negotiations with South Korean free agent infielder Kim Dong-Ju. Kim’s recent quotes about playing for Yakult are clearly favorable. “I wish I could get an opportunity to play in Japan, and there is no clear obstacle that may hinder me from coming over to play in Japan” said Kim. His career stats:

• AVG: .311
• HRs: 196
• RBIs: 729
• Games: 1087

Contract Details for Yokohama’s Wood and Furmaniak

The Yokohama Bay Stars have signed both RHP Mike Wood and infielder J.J. Furmaniak to one-year contracts. Wood’s deal is valued at US $600,000 and Furmaniak’s is at US $550,000. Both contracts are guaranteed 

Sources: 12.05.07 Web edition of Sports Hochi Newspaper and 12.06.2007 edition of Sports Hochi Newspaper

Fukudome, Yabuta, Kobayashi and others could all be playing in the States in 2008. But not all of these players will succeed. So what’s the best way to project them? How will we know who will succeed and who will fail?

Pags bucks traditional thinking by predicting that commitment level will have greater influence than historical statistics when predicting how successful these players will be.

Join Pags for an online chat as he analyzes some examples from this past season, and makes his predictions for the upcoming baseball season.

When: Thursday, 12/06/07, 3:00-3:30 PM EST

Where: www.dugoutcentral.com

Seibu Lions signed Craig Brazell

Various news outlets are reporting that the Seibu Lions have signed IF Craig Brazell to a one-year contract worth 100 million yen (US$900,000). Brazell hit 32 home runs in 105 games last year playing for the Kansas City Royals AAA affiliate in Omaha. Seibu hopes Brazell can replace some of the lost fire power caused by the departures of Wada and Cabrera.

Japan Qualifies for Olympics with Wins Over South Korea and Taiwan 

Japan 4, South Korea 3 

Having contained the South Korean line-up to three runs over an exciting and thrilling eight innings, the Yomiuri Giants ace closer Koji Uehara entered the game in the 9th and tossed a perfect 1-2-3 inning to earn the save.

Japanese manager Hoshino, who was very impressed with Uehara, said; “To keep that kind of self-control and ball location in that kind of tense situation is just incredible. Uehara is something very special.”

Japan allowed the Koreans to break the ice in the bottom of the first on Ko Young Min’s home run. But in the top of the 2nd inning Takahiro Arai doubled, Atsunori Inaba drew a walk followed by Saburo Omura’s game-tying line drive base hit to left. In the third, catcher Shinnosuke Abe singled in another run.

Japan’s starter Naruse allowed two runs on three hits in 3-2/3 innings. In relief Chunichi’s ace Kenshin Kawakami had a decent outing. Kenshin Kawakami said: “In a thriller like this, I convinced myself that my job is to keep the game under control and pass it on to the next hurler.”

But the Koreans did not quit; they continuously put together quality at-bat against Kawakami. Hoshino had to call on Dragons closer Hitoki Iwase in the sixth inning with two runners on. But Iwase had control problems, and he walked the first batter he faced before a fanning the next hitter to end the inning. In the eighth inning, Japan added an insurance run on a single by Inaba.

Japan 10, Taiwan 2

The Japanese national team won a berth in the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games with a 10-2 win over Taiwan.

Japan’s ace Yu Darvish allowed a two-run homer in the bottom of the 6th inning, but Japan hitters regained the lead moments later. They loaded the bases in the top of the 7th inning with no outs and tied the game with a suicide squeeze by Saburo Omura. Tsuyoshi Nishioka followed with an RBI single to put Japan on top for good. It was a rout after that.

Japanese cleanup hitter Takahiro Arai, who scored a go-ahead run on a single in the first inning, went 4-for-5 and a walk with four RBIs. He helped put the game on ice with a two-run homer in the ninth.

Darvish was dominating the Taiwan line-up until former Los Angeles Dodgers slugger Chen Chin-feng blasted a two-run homer in the bottom of the 6th, which momentarily put Taiwan out in front.

Taiwan and South Korea will battle it out for one of three remaining Olympic spots. The final Olympic qualifying tournament is scheduled to begin next spring.

Sources: 12.03.2007 editions of the Daily Sports, Nikkan Sports, and Sports Hochi Newspapers and 12.04.2007 Web edition of the Daily Sports Newspaper 

Motown Magic

According to ESPN.com (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3141703)  Detroit has agreed in principle for a deal to acquire Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis from Florida for Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, and four other prospects.
 
Before examining the winner and loser of this trade, let’s get one thing straight: The Tigers have sent a message to not only the AL Central but the rest of Major League Baseball: We will be a force in 2008.
 
Detroit’s Possible Lineup:
 
Granderson CF
Renteria SS
Cabrera 3B
Ordonez RF
Sheffield DH
Guillen 1B
Jones LF
Polanco 2B
Rodriguez C
 
Inge - Util (or will be traded)
 
Miguel Cabrera is a 24-year-old four-time all-star. He became the 3rd fastest player in MLB history to hit 500 RBI’s. A model of consistency: 25 + homeruns and 110 + RBI’s every season after his rookie year. The most talented hitter available through free agency or trade this offseason just landed in Detroit.
 
Dontrelle Willis, a former Rookie of the Year, won 22 games in 2005 but has won only 22 games since then. He throws in the low 90’s, and brings a slider and changeup. Willis has an unorthodox wind-up that NL hitters have adapted to over time. AL hitters will need to adjust to his high leg kick, and I expect Willis to have a strong start in his new league. Of all the players in this deal, Willis will benefit the most from a change of scenery. D-Train will now serve as a 3rd or 4th starter, much more appropriate than his role in Florida.
 
Florida gets six players in return who share one thing in common: potential. Maybin was once described by Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski in an AP article as the best position player he’s ever had in any organization. Promoted in late 2007, Maybin struggled, hitting .143, 1 HR, 2 RBI’s in 24 games. Pretty small sample size. For what its worth, Jacoby Ellsbury appeared in 33 games and hit .353/3/18.   

I am extremely high on Andrew Miller. Despite his 5-5 record and 5.63 ERA in 2007, he is a future #1 starter. Miller is 6′6”and throws in the mid-’90s. He needs to learn how to pitch and not throw. Miller must focus on location and develop his change-up. While warming up before a Chatham A’s game in 2005, one teammate commented to another, ”He throws his change-up harder than my fastball. Much harder.”

One way to determine the winners and losers of a Major League Baseball trade is to look at which team got the best player. That would be Miguel Cabrera. Advantage: Detroit. Barring injury (and the lineup listed above has experienced its share) Detroit will win the AL Central and immediately contend for the ALCS title.

One of the highlights of the 2007 baseball season was the no-hitter thrown by the Red Sox pheee-nom Clay Buchholz on September 1. Buchholz, who turned 23 on Aug. 14 but looks 13, pitched the third no-hitter of the season - following Mark Buehrle of the Chicago White Sox against Texas on April 18 and Justin Verlander of Detroit against Milwaukee on June 12. Buchholz (2-0) became the 17th rookie to throw a no-hitter. The last one to do it was Florida’s Anibal Sanchez, a former Red Sox prospect traded for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell, against Arizona last Sept. 6.

But I started thinking about rookies who threw a no-hitter in his first or second major league start. Like Buchholz, Wilson Alvarez did it in his second start on Aug. 11, 1991, for the Chicago White Sox at Baltimore. But the story that I like to share is how Bobo Hollomon threw a no-no in his first start on May 6, 1953, for the St. Louis Browns at home against the Philadelphia Athletics.

The Brownies were not a good team (they finished the season 54-100 and drew all of 297,238 fans to St. Louis’ Sportsman Park), and Holloman was not a good pitcher. He was ineffective pitching four times in relief (ten hits and five earned runs in 5.5 innings), and owner Bill Veeck was anxious to return him to the minors, since he had been purchased on a conditional basis from Syracuse, and keeping him would cost $25,000 the team didn’t really have.

Somehow, Holloman convinced manager Marty Marion to give him a start (Veeck recalled, “You haven’t given Big Bobo any chance,” he’d tell Marty Marion. “Big Bobo isn’t a relief pitcher, he’s a starter. Big Bobo can pitch better than half the guys you’ve got starting.”) and so on the rainy night of May 6, 1953, there starting against Holloman and Brownies were the only slightly better Philadelphia A’s (59-95).

Veeck wrote, “Big Bobo went out and pitched against the Athletics, the softest competition we could find, and everything he threw up was belted. And everywhere the ball went, there was a Brownie there to catch it. It was such a hot and humid and heavy night that long fly balls which seemed to be heading out of the park would die and be caught against the fence. Just when Bobo looked as if he was tiring, a shower would sweep across the field, delaying the game long enough for him to get a rest.”

That night everything the A’s hit, they hit hard. Holloman, despite his protestations to the contrary, was no better a starter than he was a reliever. If anything, Holloman was proving to be a half-decent hitter as he went 2-3 (okay, those were the last and only hits of his career) and drove home three of the eight St. Louis runs as they built an 8-0 lead going to the 9th.

The A’s hit hard grounders, long flies, screaming liners, somehow each one finding the glove of a waiting Brown. Veeck, in his must read autobiography “Veeck as in Wreck”, wrote about long flies going into the stands right after they curved foul at the last moment and bunts just rolling foul and in his words “impossible diving stops.” Despite all the hard hit balls, and because of a number of outstanding fielding plays, Holloman had a no-hitter going to the 9th and then, of all things, Holloman’s nerves started.

Bobo walked the lead-off batter pinch-hitter Elmer Valo on four pitches, but he did a little better on the next batter Eddie Joost; he walked him on five pitches. According to Time magazine, after Holloman had gone 3-0 on Joost, Marion sent Harry Breecheen out to speak to Bobo because he was too nervous to go himself.

With first and second and nobody out in the 9th, up stepped Dave Philley and with him came a pitcher’s “best friend.” Philley hit into a double play and Philly was down to their last out. Holloman was one batter from immortality. The 2,417 fans were on the edges of their wet seats (Veeck had already shown his appreciation to the fans for coming out on this dank evening by giving them rain checks to a future game).

Then came… a walk to Loren Babe.

Up stepped the A’s cleanup batter, Eddie Robinson. Swing and miss, strike one. Swing and a foul tip strike two. Next pitch, Robinson hammers a liner, just foul. Bobo goes into the stretch and Robinson connects with a fly ball… right into the hands of right fielder Vic Wertz and Holloman pitched the first Browns no-hitter in exactly 36 years (Bob Groom threw it in 1917). Five walks, one error (by the pitcher himself that could have been called either way) and three strikeouts enabled Holloman to achieve immortality.

Veeck was now stuck with him, “I don’t think it’s wise to send a man back to the minor leagues right after he’s become immortal. It looks as if you are punishing him for throwing a no-hitter.”

However…

Holloman made nine more starts, picking up two more wins against the Indians and the Red Sox. Veeck wrote about Big Bobo, “He could outtalk me, outpester and outcon me. Unfortunately, he could not outpitch me.” He never threw another complete game. And, by the time Veeck sold him to the minor league Toronto franchise for $7500 following his appearance on July 19, 1953, Bobo had pitched in a total of 22 games. In 65.1 innings he gave up 69 hits and walked another 50. He had a lifetime record of 3-7 and an ERA of 5.23.

He never pitched in the majors again. Clearly the future is very different for Clay Buchholz.

There is a sense of irony that Buchholz defeated the Baltimore Orioles because in a peculiar way, so did Bobo. You see the Brownies had a scout by the name of Bill Norman who was scouting minor league Kansas City team in the American Association. Since he was there he hung around to watch the Kansas City Monarchs of the Negro Leagues and so a terrific shortstop.

After telling Veeck about him, Veeck called the Monarchs’ owner, Tom Baird, to find out his availability. Baird was happy to make a deal with Bill Veeck who always was fair to black ballplayers. Unfortunately, Baird needed $35,000 to pay off debts. Veeck didn’t have that kind of money after the Holloman fiasco but offered $3,500 down and “the $31,500 when you catch me.”

Baird laughed and then Veeck asked Baird for one favor: “Just please don’t sell him in our league. Norman tells me he’s tremendous.”

“All right,” Veeck quoted Baird as replying. “Where do you want him?” Veeck called Chicago Cubs official Jim Gallagher, who was scouting the shortstop already, and convinced Gallagher to call the Monarchs. Baird made the deal with the Cubs.

The rest of the story?

Following the 1953 season, without Veeck, the St. Louis Browns moved to Baltimore and changed their name. And that young shortstop, who never played for the Orioles after the move, became a Hall of Famer, Mr. Cubs, Ernie Banks.

Read more of Bill Chuck’s work at www.Billy-Ball.com. Along with Jim Kaplan, he authored the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales” to be published by ACTA Sports, February, 2008.

The Seibu Lions have announced the signing of ex-Padres outfielder Hiram Bocachica. Team president Shinji Kobayashi said the ex-Padre’s contract is for one year and the deal is worth US $500,000.Hiram stat’s from 2007:

Source: 12.04.2007 edition of the Sports Hochi Newspaper

What a year for a Carlos Pena! A perfect year (statistically speaking). Power, batting average, defense… he did it all. Looking at just his 2007 stats, most people would think the guy was an MVP candidate year after year. Arguably Carlos Pena had the best year of any first baseman in baseball. There were reports last week that he turned down a three-year, $30M contract from the Rays. I’m not sure I believe that, but let’s try to figure out what he’s worth.

Please don’t be fooled. Player evaluation is the weakest aspect in Major League Baseball today. Here is a good place to begin calculating the value in Carlos Pena.

How NOT to calculate the value:

• Use one year as a measuring device
• Use statistical, “one year” comparisons
• Project performance for a player on a last place team
• Assume all contending opposition will throw their best pitchers against the cellar dweller

How to calculate a player’s value:

• Don’t listen to his agent – he had nothing to do with his performance
• Know the player’s tools; evaluate them separately from his statistics to help isolate short-run performance outliers
• Identify the player’s improvements in statistical categories that the potential signing team values
• Understand the marginal benefit of adding the player to the team
• Identify the player’s historical and projected performance relative to players playing the same position (VORP)
• Understand who the man is. Is baseball important to him. Does it piss a guy off when he strikes out with the bases loaded?

The bottom line for Pena? He’s had six seasons in the majors. 2007 was tremendous and he had a decent 2004 with Detroit, posting an OPS of .810. Otherwise, he’s been a below average hitter at a power position. He’s been traded by two teams (Texas and Oakland), released by two teams (Detroit and NYY) and not re-signed by the Red Sox. He’ll be 30 next year.

For a team like the Rays, Pena is worth about $4M-$5M annually until he proves he can produce at a good or better level. Will Pena sign an extension at this rate? Highly unlikely and understandably so since another year like 2007 could get him a big, fat contract.

What should the Rays do? They are in a tough position because if he has another big year, he’ll be out of their price range.  Their best bet is to hope he starts off like the slugger he was in 2007 and trade him to a team that can afford a larger extension. Trade him for minor leaguers who are just about ready to contribute at the major league level, or for major leaguers with far less service time.

Royals Overpay Guillen – Further Dooming Them to Mediocrity

I expected more from Dayton Moore. I would have thought his tutelage under former Braves GM John Schuerholz would have created a better understanding of financial discipline, value-based initiatives and building a team from within.

But I guess that didn’t happen, because now we have word that Moore signed OF Jose Guillen to a 3-year, $36M contract.

In evaluating Guillen signing, let’s first look at Guillen’s positives:

• He’s got a cannon of an arm
• He had a nice 2003 when he went .311/.359/.569
• He can give you a soft 25 home runs and 90 RBIs
• He’s really good at getting hit by pitches; in fact, he’s 44th all time for HBP
• He’s only been caught stealing twice in the past 3 years (okay – I’m being sarcastic at this point)

Now let’s look at the negatives:

• The Royals will be his ninth team. That’s never a good sign when eight teams decide to let you move on. I’ve heard a lot about attitude problems, and the number of clubhouses he’s passed through would suggest those problems are very real.
• He has a terrible K/BB ratio of 3.41, and not surprisingly, he has a bad career on-base percentage of .325.

Guillen’s not bad, but he’s not great. I’ll say he’s a solid “good”. So what’s Guillen worth? Baseball Reference says that Jacque Jones and Juan Encarnacion are the two most similar batters to Guillen. Encarnacion got paid $5M last year and Jones $5.6M. Using those as salaries as a basis, I think Guillen is worth about $8M.

What’s Guillen worth to the Royals? Their offense was terrible last year. Check out the stats: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/KCR/2007.shtml. John Buck led the team with 18 home runs. Emil Brown led with 62 RBIs. For players with over 350 at bats, Mark Grudzielanek led the team with a .426 slugging percentage!

Guillen will replace Mark Teahen in right field. Let’s compare numbers for Teahen and Guillen from 2007:

• Guillen: .290/.353/.460
• Teahen: .285/.353/.410

Teahen will probably make around $1M in 2008 and Guillen will make $12M. Is a .050 upgrade in slugging worth $11M? I don’t think so. The Royals desperately need offensive production, especially in their outfield, but overpaying Guillen isn’t the way to do it.

Dear Ed,

Opened up the paper today and saw you finalized a free agent deal with Kaz Matsui. Three years and $16.5 million. You realize that it’s deals like this one that make those of us who mine baseball statistics for a living want to bang our heads into hard objects, don’t you? Maybe this contract would have been understandable 30 years ago, in the statistical “dark ages”, but there’s really no excuse for it today. Allow me to explain.

You were undoubtedly wowed by Matsui’s performance since he moved from the Mets to the Rockies. He put up a 256/310/337 line with New York and a 300/354/426 line with Colorado. That’s some kind of improvement, and I suppose you’ve chalked it up to the whole New York media thing, or Matsui finally getting comfortable with life here in the States, or some other psychological explanation. When I looked at those numbers the first thought that occurred to me was “I wonder what he hit on the road while he played for Colorado”.

I’m sure it’s not news to you that offensive performance tends to be enhanced by playing in Coors Field. If you haven’t noticed, it’s really hard to breathe there because of the altitude, and that lack of air can do funny things to baseballs. Yes I’m aware of the whole humidor thing, but while it has depressed home runs a bit, hitters are still getting a pretty good bump playing there. So I visited my favorite website, www.baseball-reference.com, and I used the Play Index to look up Matsui’s home/road splits. Now I was doing this pretty fast so I just totaled up 2006 and 2007 even though Matsui played part of 06 in NY but I don’t think that had a big impact on the result.

• Matsui’s road 06/07: 252/302/358.
• Matsui in NY: 256/310/337.

I think you’ll notice that these two sets of numbers are remarkably similar. Nearly identical, one might say. You do realize that you just paid a $1.5 million signing bonus and guaranteed $5 million a year for the next three years to the guy who got hounded out of NY and not the one who was cheered in Colorado, right?

What makes this move even weirder is you already own this guy. Allow me to introduce you to Mr. Chris Burke. I realize he’s been the odd man out during the “Chris Biggio May Already Be a Hall of Famer but By God We’re Going To Get Him to 3000 Hits No Matter How Bad He’s Become” tour, but have you looked at his career triple slash stats.

• Burke (career) 249/319/377

Look familiar. That’s right, they’re eerily similar to the road stats of the guy you just handed $16.5 million. Burke’s got a little more pop in his bat, but other than that these two players are pretty much the same. The thing is that you control Burke’s cost for three more years AND there are a lot of people that think if you ever gave Burke the chance to be in the line-up on a consistent basis he’d actually put up numbers a little bit better than that AND he’s 27 whereas Mr. Matsui is 32 AND you’ve already got a mid-30’s utility infielder named Geoff Blum who’s career line is (and I’ll admit this is getting a little freaky) 251/312/386.

I’m sure you have a plan here, but I’ll be darned if I can see what it is other than cornering the market on slightly above average players who all play the same position. I hope you have a good time in Opryland this week. I’m going to go back to banging my head on the desk.

Regards,

Steve Caimano

Japan 10, Philippines 0

Even though the Japanese National Team won handily, their play didn’t exactly have their manager in a festive mood. The manager, Senichi Hoshino, was far from happy and lashed out at the media saying: “Although Wakui pitched very well, and he met my expectations, this win is hardly satisfying. Our runs came on errors and poor play. They gave us the runs.” 

Japan starter Hideaki Wakui allowed one hit over six innings to collect the win and Hiroyuki Kobayashi pitched one inning in relief.

Offensively, struggling cleanup hitter Takahiro Arai put Japan out in front with a triple to center and that was just the start of the scoring onslaught. Shinnosuke Abe followed with a single, scoring Arai, then Abe scored on an error after a single and a walk loaded the bases. Then Munenori Kawasaki singled home two more runners.

The mercy rule ended the game after the Philippines batted in the 7th inning.

The next scheduled game will be against South Korea. Japan will need to play better if they expect to win.

Sources: 12.02.2007 editions of the Nikkan Sports/Sports Hochi Newspapers

Pags: Do It

If I’m the Red Sox, I do what it takes to get Santana to Fenway. And that includes paying him $150M over six years. If Santana is added to the Red Sox starting staff, it will lock up the division for the next five years in a row. And think about the NESN media revenues that will follow.

Imagine facing Santana, Beckett and Schilling in a four-game series. Imagine Buchholz or Matsuzaka as a number four starter. Santana is not only one of the best in the game, he is a future Hall of Famer. He is also the major’s best fielding pitcher, and, oh, by the way, he’s left-handed.

If the Red Sox have an opportunity to get him and don’t, someone should lose their job.

Adam: Don’t Do It

Santana will cost the Red Sox too much, in terms of both money and personnel, and starting pitching isn’t a position of need.

Is Santana the best pitcher in baseball? Well if he isn’t #1, he’s #1a or #1b (Peavy). Would he help the Sox? Absolutely? But he doesn’t address the Sox’s weakness from 2007, which was offense. And things could slowly get worse for the Red Sox in this department. Here’s why the Sox need to take that money and personnel and acquire offense:

• Manny will be 36 next year and his three year trend suggests further deterioration, his playoff performance notwithstanding
• Ortiz isn’t a spring chicken – he’ll be 32 next year. He’s a big man and had nagging injuries this year. A drop-off wouldn’t be totally unexpected, though I think that won’t come for a couple of years.
• Varitek will be 36, and he will struggle to match last year’s .421 slugging.
• Lowell will be 34 and is almost certain to have a drop-off.
• Lugo is Lugo, which is a .240 hitter with steals.
• And then there’s JD Drew. God only knows what he’ll produce over the next few years.
• And most importantly: the Theo regime hasn’t shown an ability to develop sluggers, with the exception of Hanley Ramirez.

Bottom line is that the Red Sox offense can be expected to decline each year for the next two or three years, barring any acquisition. The Sox can get better bang for their buck and improve their regular season and post season chances if they get some new offensive firepower. Miguel Cabrera, Carl Crawford, Justin Morneau, Adam Dunn, Mark Teixeira, etc. Santana is great, but the marginal benefit of acquiring him just isn’t as large as getting offense.

Mark Prior. Joe Mauer. That’s how the 2001 draft would have gone had it not been for the Twins not wanting to pay a premium for pitching, and the fact that Mauer was a hometown kid. Maybe the Cubs wouldn’t have taken Prior had it not been for the fact that they were in a middle of an arms race and getting pitchers to develop was the strength of their farm system or at least what they wanted to do. That’s a bunch of maybes.

What has happened is Prior has gone on to have one great season with the Cubs and been injured for most of his career. Mauer has developed into one of the premier catchers in either league. While Mauer’s career is set in terms of where he is playing, Prior is waiting to be tendered an offer by the Cubs or just waiting to be traded. 

The Padres are interested in bringing Prior, a native of San Diego, to their rotation and are willing to trade mid-level prospects to acquire him. The prospects include Single- A second basemen Rayner Contreras, Double-A pitcher Wade LeBlanc and Double-A left fielder Chad Huffman.

While some fans will be happy getting anything in return for damaged goods, I believe this trade should not be done from the Cubs perspective.The Cubs have invested nearly $18 million in Mark Prior and have received a career stat line of 42-29 with a solid 3.51 ERA, but he only appeared in 57 games the last four years. Although he won’t be ready until around May at the earliest, he can still go on to have a successful career. There have been many pitchers who have had the infamous Tommy John surgery and had successful career. The list includes; John Smoltz, Erik Bedard and Ryan Dempster. Even Mariano Rivera had the surgery.  

In a perfect world, Prior would sign a two-year deal that would be incentive-laden. That way, if he was healthy and produced for the club, he would get rewarded. Prior can easily come back after this surgery and be just as dominate as he was before. The same can be said for the opposite scenario, and he could just keep getting injured. This is a risk the Cubs should take. They took the risk on Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood, and those have panned out for the organization. Why not take it on the former number two overall draft pick? 

Seibu Lions in Dire Need of Quality Players

In the last few weeks the Seibu Lions have released RHP Jason Johnson and IF Alex Cabrera and have made it known they have plans to re-sign pitchers Chris Gissell and Hsu Ming-chieh. The Lions, in the coming days, will also notify IF Jeffrey Liefer that he will not be asked back. The only gaijin player of worth on the 2008 roster is closer Alex Graman. Syu Daiei is still considered as a development player (non-roster). Another terrible blow for the club is that they will lose its offensive mainstay Kazuhiro Wada.

As currently constructed the 2008 lineup lacks considerable fire power and depth. If the Lions want to compete they must continue to scout and hustle/scramble to acquire new gaijin pitchers and position players. 

Hiroki Kuroda Informs Carp Owner of His Decision to Go to the US

Hiroki Kuroda, almost in tears, thanked the ownership of the Carp and other team executives. “I am only thankful to the team and appreciate everyone’s effort of having raised me to today’s status. I could have finished my baseball career as a Carp but I, at the same time, wanted the challenge of playing baseball in the US for a Major League team” said Kuroda.

Swallows Loss is Tigers’ Gain

Yesterday it was reported the Yakult Swallows failed to reach an agreement with RHP Seth Greisinger. The Hanshin Tigers will send a representative to the US to try and acquire Greisinger. Hanshin is reportedly set to offer Greisinger a 2-year deal worth 700+ million yen (US $6.4 million) plus attainable incentives.

Seibu Lions Officially Release IF Alex Cabrera

Rumored for a while, the Seibu Lions Alex Cabrera will officially become a free agent. The Orix Buffaloes will look too sign Cabrera quickly as rumors of their interest surfaced over the last few days. Orix is prepared to offer Cabrera a 2-year deal worth US$ 6-7 million. 

Yomiuri Giants Release Three US Players

The Yomiuri Giants announced they would not offer contracts to RHP Jeremy Powell, OF Damon Hollins and RHP Geremi Gonzalez.

Nori Nakamura Receives Raise for 2008

Nori Nakamura will receive a hefty raise (50 million yen/year) for the 2008 season. The salary increase is the highest ever recorded in the history of the Central League. Nakamura once made 500 million yen/year but earned only 6 million yen/year in 07’ due to his inexperienced Japanese lawyer/agent.

Sources: 11/29/07 Yomiuri Newspaper, 11/29/07 Nikkan Sports Newspaper, 11/29/07 Hochi Newspaper, 11.30.2007 Web edition of the Nikkan Sports Newspaper and 12.01.2007 edition of the Sports Nippon Newspaper

Pags: Keep Him

It’s not every day a premium starter comes through your franchise, and to have Erik Bedard’s name being thrown around in trade rumors is quite unordinary. But it’s happening, so let’s talk about what the Orioles should do.

How do the lowly Baltimore Orioles handle such a desired left hand pitcher?

First let’s start by understanding what Bedard is:

• He is a Premium category pitcher
• He is a number one or two on any staff in baseball
• He is durable
• He is a strikeout pitcher
• His statistics are phenomenal
• And he’s left handed

Why shouldn’t every team in baseball want this guy?

Here is what Baltimore should do. During the month of October the hierarchy gave their blessing to the scouting and development personnel of the organization - the basic foundation of every franchise. The Orioles should stand behind this blessing and stay with their core group including: Liz, Erbe, Rowell, Snyder, Florimon, etc. Keeping Bedard shows commitment by the Baltimore front office to building from within. It also tells their core players: “we stand behind what we build!”

Now if for some nutty reason the Orioles decide to trade Bedard, this would highly contradict all assurances handed out at the organization meetings. Trading Bedard for prospects would prove without a doubt that there is little to NO trust in the scouting and development departments. Yes, they could (or at least they should) get a ton in return from him, but an franchise with such deep pockets needs to show its fans, players and prospects they’re committed to building – and building from within.

The Bottom Line: The Orioles Need to Keep Bedard, or the Nationals will inherit a ton of good baseball fans.

Adam: Trade Him

The Orioles are a terrible team. Their major league roster ranks ahead of just the Giants in terms of the number of players with value. Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, Erik Bedard, Jeremy Guthrie, Jamie Walker, Chad Bradford and Chris Ray are the only players who contributed in a meaningful way in 2007. Take a look at the bullpen, where 10 pitchers had an ERA of above 6.00 (with a minimum of 10 IP). How does a team that spent $93M on its major league roster let this happen?

Pags argues that the Orioles will lose fans if they trade Bedard, and that it demonstrates a lack of commitment to the scouting and development departments. He’s right, but I think they have to bite the bullet. If I’m the Orioles, I’d rather at least have the potential to make the playoffs and have people angry at me than doom myself to last place with the continued erosion of support that comes with it.

What the Orioles should do to appease everyone is make a good trade. Make a trade that brings back quality major league talent as well as minor league talent. The Orioles should empower their scouting and development departments to identify and develop that minor league talent.

I believe that Bedard should bring equal, if not more, value than Johan Santana. Yes, Santana is better, but Bedard will be much, much cheaper over the next five years, providing his future team with the financial freedom to sign free agents or make additional trades.

How about Clay Buchholz, Jed Lowrie, Coco Crisp and another minor leaguer for Bedard? And perhaps the Orioles shouldn’t stop there. Trade Brian Roberts while he’s at top value (for Cubs SP Rich Hill and a prospect) and get a couple of low minor leaguers for Tejada from a team that doesn’t scout its own organization well.

I digress. For you Orioles fans who may be depressed, humor yourself by looking at http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SFG/2007.shtml and seeing how superior your team is to the Giants. “Now batting clean-up… Bengie Molina.”

This is the fourth in a series on The Good, the Bad and the Ugly that the 2007 fantasy baseball season had to offer.

Hot Pocket Picks (Your starving, there’s nothing left in your freezer and after you eat the pocket full of meat your back starts hurting and you feel sick, but at least you’re kind of full, right?)

Scott Rolen: 9th rated 3rd basemen on the board going into 2007, just ahead of Chipper Jones. He was routinely picked ahead of World Series MVP Mike Lowell. That’s it. I don’t have to add anything else to this, I digress. My back is starting to hurt. Rolen’s decline was .031 AVG, 39 R, 37 RBI, 2 SB and 14 HR.

Bill Hall: After a big year in 2006, Hall was projected as the 10th best SS available in drafts. In most drafts people picked him before Lugo, Renteria, and Tulo. Hall is the perfect Hot Pocket player. If I had nothing else, sure I’ll take him, but if I have any other choice I’m always going to look elsewhere. Hall’s decline: .016 AVG, 42 R, 22 RBI, 4 SB and 21HR. My tummy hurts!!!

Vernon Wells: At least he got a big contact last year. I mean really, that’s all I can say about the guy. A good ‘06 campaign had him projected at 15th for OF. “Magglio Ordonez is still available? I have a hunch about Wells, could be the steal of the draft”. So you take Wells and sit back and smile. After the season you don’t know what happened, how did things get this out of control? That’s the kind of player Wells was for fantasy owners in 2007. Wells’ decline: .058 AVG, 6 R, 26 RBI, 7 SB and 16 HR. I’m going to take some Rolaids and rest for awhile.

Pags: Bad Move

Right after making sense with a good trade for Garza and Bartlett, the Rays show their true colors with a typical “Devil Ray” type move. A two year deal for Percival – a once retired 38 year old closer with a shredded rotator cuff. He only pitched in back to back games three times last year. How can he be expected to close? It’s a completely backwards baseball move.

Throw the numbers out the window here; Percy is doing this for the money only. He doesn’t even want to pitch. Two years ago he was driving a golf cart around spring training as an instructor and no one was listening to him. With all the good arms in the Rays system, the Rays shouldn’t be wasting their limited money and a roster spot on an old pitcher who won’t help them get to the playoffs. More importantly the Rays better take out a very good insurance policy on Percival – he is projected to blow out!

Adam: Good Move

The Rays followed up a gutsy and potentially very progressive trade with the Twins with a free agent signing that should help them even more. Yes, he’s old and he missed two years of action before returning to the Cardinals last July. But the numbers say he can still pitch (I didn’t watch him pitch much last year, so I’ll have to rely on the numbers).

The right-handed Percival was good against left-handed hitters last year (.626 OPS in 63 plate appearances) and filthy against righties (.418 in 87 PA!). He only allowed one run in his last 14 appearances covering 17.7 innings. Overall, he had a 1.80 ERA and 0.85 ERA in 40 innings.

The Rays desperately need a closer – and bullpen help in general, as demonstrated by their poorly thought out and panicked trade for Dan Wheeler. This is a team that had 10 relievers last year (ranging from 0.3 innings pitched to 76 innings) who had an ERA of more than 6.00. Scared yet? How about these stats:

• Brian Stokes: 7.07 ERA in 62.3 IP
• Shawn Camp: 7.20 ERA in 40 IP
• Jae Kuk Ryu: 7.33 ERA in 23.3 IP
• Casey Fossum: 7.70 ERA in 76 IP
• Jon Switzer: 8.05 ERA in 19 IP
• Rudy Lugo: 9.28 ERA in 10.7 IP

No, Percival isn’t going to pitch 75 innings, and no, he’s not going to get a lot of saves on back to back nights. And, no, he’s not going to help the Rays get to the playoffs (unless they trade for Johan Santana, Miguel Cabrera and Erik Bedard and sign a couple of more relievers). But Percival will greatly help the bullpen and helps them get to respectability. And the Rays need to get to respectability before they get to the playoffs.

This is the third in a series on The Good, the Bad and the Ugly that the 2007 fantasy baseball season had to offer.

J.D. Drew Picks (Outfielders we continually think are better than what they really are, so we end up picking them way too high.)

Johnny Damon: He has a noodle for an arm and apparently didn’t have much of an off season workout plan. Sounds perfect for the 16th ranked OF coming into 2007. Chris Young, Alexis Rios and Curtis Granderson could have been had 10 rounds later, but you wanted the big name in The Big City. I hope you enjoyed the deflated production that came along with the inflated costs. A decline of .015 AVG, 22 R, 17 RBI and 12 HR. Solid pick up. I heard contracting HEP B was a good idea too?

Jermaine Dye: Coincidence he is ranked 17th right after our friend Damon? Maybe so or maybe the 44 HR in 2006 threw us all off. Either way Dye was certainly picked and picked early in a ton of drafts. His decline reads: .061 AVG, 35 R, 42 RBI, 5 SB and 16 HR. I hope you didn’t pick him in a keeper league!

Andruw Jones: Contract year? Yea, he’s good for at least 50 HR right? Umm, not so much! As the 11th ranked OF in baseball, Jones did nothing to help his contract negotiations in 2008 and even less for his fantasy owner in 2007. Even Scott Boras is going to have a hard time pushing these numbers for 20m a year. Jones had a decline of .040 AVG, 24 R, 35 RBI and 15 HR. And who says the guy is losing a step? He upped his SB production by a single swipe.