At Reliefstat.com you can find a stat called RRA - Relief Run Average. It measures the ability of a reliever to keep inherited runners from scoring. It takes into account if you entered the game with the bases loaded and no outs, or man on first and two outs. The formula is explained here, but like most new statistics, if it isn’t easy to calculate, most people in baseball don’t understand them.

With Hideki Okajima you don’t really need any confusing formula to find his numbers: .800, or 4 out of 5. However you look at it, he has allowed 12 of the 15 inherited runners to score. You could write about the good news (like one newspaper), which is that he hasn’t allowed an inherited runner to score since May 14. Or you could be more informative to your readers and say that he hadn’t entered a game with a man on base since May 14, until yesterday.

The Red Sox need to demote Okajima, or trade him. He isn’t worth a roster spot now, and getting rid of him has the side-benefit of opening up a spot for one of the kids like Buchholz, Bowden or Bard. They all have more talent than Okajima.

It isn’t just that Okie is losing his confidence; it’s already gone. The fact that he can’t speak after his performance reveals his baseball character. He also has lost location when it matters most. The game today is played with pitch charts and pitch location. Okajima’s is terrible. In the big spot, he always will leave his splitter up in the zone. Anyone in the Big Leagues, even Mark Loretta, can hit a bad pitch.

The Okajima of 2008 has turned into the Gagne of 2007. The best thing to do is to let Okie say sayonara.

Stats are great.

I love stats. At times in my life I have literally lived them, and better ones are being developed constantly.

But let’s not get lost in them, folks. With the power at our hands today it’s all too easy to do so.

Phil Melita’s recent article on Curt Schilling’s potential Cooperstown worthiness made a number of great points and elicited a stream of terrific responses, especially from Dugout Central’s more Sabermetrically-inclined readers. However, the impact of a player on the Game is more, and sometimes less, than the sum of his statistics.

How to quantify the intangibles that help best bring that impact into focus is an issue that doesn’t merely vex but eludes the efforts of all who try. And as by nature it must, related as it often is to conundrums underlying preferences in any peak-vs-duration performance debate.

Moreover, it is well known all too well that statistics over time are not always comparable, even when “adjusted” and anointed with a “+” for emphasis. Erstwhile baseball milestones, even heretofore Hall of Fame guarantees like joining the 500 home run club, are no longer what they once were (even aside from the undermining of many via steroid use through dilution of talent, contraction of parks, and all the other factors impacting today’s stats versus those of years gone by, especially the relative dead ball era of the 1960s).

Likewise any arbitrary win threshold for HOF eligibility for pitchers, with potential 300-game winners going the way of the carrier pigeon in today’s time of specialized relievers, pitch count zealotry, and increasingly payroll-driven management is outdated.

The way things are going it won’t be too long before the 200-win plateau is regarded as rarified as the 300-win one has been, whether we true blue baseball fans like that or not. And formerly important criterion for pitcher HOF consideration such as shutouts and complete games will be relics of baseball’s non-linear past.

Whether Curt Schilling’s career should be viewed at least in part in this light is indeed a subject deserving further debate here. One where his statistics versus his peers will be much more relevant than comparisons across time to hurlers who performed in much different environments, inducted in the Hall of Fame and not.

An area where Schilling most certainly does merit consideration, whether he adds a single W to his career total, is his personal impact on the sport – and that is indeed an intangible. Did he entertain people? Enthrall them, at least at some sustained peak? Was he a “character” that added to the color of the game? Did he rise above it when the spotlight was on him?

All these things more rightfully enhance a player’s chances of reaching Cooperstown. Oppositely, no matter the quality of their statistics, deficiency in any or all of them shaves their prospects – just as stratospheric numeric performance can and does compensate for otherwise blandish presence.

Reggie Jackson and Rafael Palmeiro (whose Hall-worthiness was the subject of this very sort of debate even prior to allegations of steroid use surfacing after he had well over 500 home runs and reached the once Hall of Fame assuring 3,000-hit benchmark) had “relatively” similar careers, at least by some measures, including baseball-reference.com’s own illuminating HOF Standards and HOF Monitor statistics.

In fact, Palmeiro outperformed Jackson in both of the latter, 57.2/178 -vs- 53.5/168.5, and out-homered him over his career, 569 to 563. But what fan who watched both players in their primes would begin to argue that Palmeiro had a fraction of the electrifying impact Jackson had on the game, especially when the pressure was greatest and spotlight brightest? Jackson was a first-ballot Hall of Famer who earned fully 94% of baseball writers’ votes in spite of a middling .262 career BA and record shattering 2,597 whiffs.

Reggie didn’t get the nickname “Mr. October” by accident. And it wasn’t an accident that he had a candy bar named after him and created waves of headlines and ripples in the crowd wherever he appeared. Opposing fans always knew when he would come to bat; they would time their beer runs and bathroom breaks to make sure they wouldn’t miss his titanic swings. Entire stadiums sat on the edge of their seats and let out collective “Phews!” when he fanned with a game on the line, or crossed their fingers and mumbled prayers to their Almighty that he get a chance to tie one when they were down. They would scan their scorecards and beg for walks, hit batsmen, anything, ahead of him just to get him into the batter’s box.

There are no statistics for these things, but fans know them, respect them and employ them as their own measures of Hall of Fame worthiness, every bit as much as numbers, awards, and the opinions of baseball Talking Heads.

Just one memorable deed, like Bucky Dent’s post-season cinching poke against the Red Sox, or piling dirt around the mound in an all-too-brief flirtation with greatness like Mark “The Bird” Fidrych’s won’t do it. But a career of being big, colorful and quote-worthy can go a long way toward cementing one’s imprint on the game – just like other intangibles such as “hustle”, “determination,” and playing spikes high and socks even higher the Old School way.

Certainly there are better illustrations of the importance of a player’s impact out there, both in heroic deed and entertaining personality, than Jackson vs Palmeiro, and I welcome them. It is just a point of departure in offering an instance where the intangibles of pressure performance, notoriety and stature in one’s era, distinguish a player as Hall-worthy, as much as or even more than their statistical lines.

We must not lose sight of intangibles as our data-mining tools become more powerful and contributors and readers alike grow ever more agile in their use. These tools leave us richer in numbers, but if we aren’t careful about how we use them, they can make us poorer in context.

Schilling’s stats may be borderline for Cooperstown – may be. Are his contributions between them – his swagger, sweat, bloody sock and promises made and promises kept – enough to push him over the top?

In the late 1970s the New York Yankees won three American League pennants and two World Series. Besides the bearing the moniker ‘The Bronx Zoo” the Yankees were also derisively referred to as “The Best Team Money Can Buy.”

The Yankees may have been a zoo, but their success was hardly a result of buying talent. The club boasted three major free agents: pitchers Catfish Hunter and Don Gullett and right fielder Reggie Jackson. By the time the Yankees claimed their second World Series title in 1978 Hunter and Gullett were nearly finished as major league pitchers; Reggie Jackson was the only productive free agent on the team.

The core of those great Yankee clubs – Ron Guidry, Goose Gossage, Graig Nettles, Thurman Munson, Lou Piniella, Willie Randolph, Mickey Rivers and Ed Figueroa were either products of the team’s farm system or acquired via trade. It’s a disservice to remember this team as a collection of free agents or that its championships were purchased; nevertheless, a myth was born.

It’s difficult to rediscover the truth once a rumor or urban legend is planted. Believing that pennants could be purchased the Yankees went on a spending spree in the 1980s. The club mindlessly traded young talent – most famously Willie McGee, Fred McGriff, Jay Buhner, Jose Rijo and Doug Drabek – while signing a host of free agents or trading youngsters for veteran players (Dave Winfield, Rickey Henderson, Don Baylor, Phil Niekro, Steve Kemp, Toby Harrah, Dave Collins…). New York won more games in the 1980s than any other team but annually fell short of capturing anything meaningful except the 1981 American League pennant. The Yankees proved that pennants cannot be won with dollars alone.

World titles returned to the Bronx when the Yankees reemphasized their farm system in the 1990s. The Yankees won four World Series titles with a core group of players who developed together in the minors (Jorge Posada, Bernie Williams, Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera); they were augmented by free agents and players acquired through good, intentional trades (Jimmy Key, David Cone, Paul O’Neill, David Wells, Chuck Knoblauch).

It’s not surprising that the Yankees ceased winning world titles when they focused too strongly on free agents and veterans in the 2000s or that they seem to be correcting this mistake by relying on more farm products of late (Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, Philip Hughes, Robinson Cano, Chien-Ming Wang and Melky Cabrera). The Yankees have torn a page out of their own history to relearn what it takes to win the World Series.

So why the history lesson? Because the New York Mets haven’t been paying attention to what’s been happening across town. Whenever a “big name” free agent becomes available the Mets are in line with a pen in hand and an open checkbook. Call it the “short guy” or “little brother” syndrome if you will; the Mets need to prove to themselves that they belong in the Yankees’ neighborhood. With a chip on their shoulder they’re determined to win championships by outbidding their cross-town rival for veteran talent.

It hasn’t worked; never has, probably never will.

Plenty of blame has been applied to explain the Mets’ recent disappointments. Willie Randolph was the first scapegoat. The problem isn’t that Randolph is a poor manager. The problem is that the Mets didn’t live up to expectations that never should have been there in the first place.

Consider the Mets 2008 roster. Winning depends on big name free agents Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran, Pedro Martinez, Moises Alou, Pedro Martinez, Johan Santana and Billy Wagner. Jose Reyes and David Wright are the only Mets starting position players who are homegrown; starter Mike Pelfrey and a handful of Mets relievers are also products of the farm system.

To be blunt, this is a 1980s New York Yankees method of building a team – a roster loaded with well-known, pricy free agents who together are unable to claim championships. Recognizing this, the Mets should never have expected to win with this club.

The Mets should stop mimicking the Yankees’ spendthrift ways. They need to develop their own plan or at least copy a method that works. Many teams offer long-term contracts to young players, locking in new talent at bargain prices. Maybe this is too much of a small-market approach for the Mets to accept but the thinking is sound. Teams may risk committing to young players who might not develop (who still retain some value, at least) yet this is preferable to being locked into older free agents who have little value as they fade toward retirement. The Mets should reinvest in their farm system and sign a few, selected free agents. This process isn’t flashy and it won’t grab headlines but it’s effective.

To be fair, the Mets aren’t the only team that’s attempting to purchase a pennant. Certainly the Detroit Tigers could write a chapter or two about pinning one’s hopes on free agents and big-name veterans. They can serve as examples about winning and misplaced expectations.

In the Mets’ case, rather than trying to “out Yankee” the Yankees they need an identity and methodology that works for them. The Mets need to overcome both their sense of inadequacy and their rivalry with the Yankees to learn from them. Until the Mets study the Yankees’ mistakes they’ll continue to copy them.

The most underrated pitcher in the American League used to be an outfielder. That’s Ron Mahay, reliever for the Kansas City Royals. Let’s pause for a moment and give the man some credit.

Mahay got a cup of coffee with the Red Sox as an outfielder – as a replacement player actually. His minor league offensive career can be best described as no power, no average, no speed: .246/.312/.340 in 1,063 at bats, with 12 steals in 26 attempts.

So in 1996, at the age of 25, Mahay made the wise decision to switch to pitching. And it’s paid off. Here is his ERA+ along with innings pitched for the past five years:

Mahay has a career ERA+ of 124. He doesn’t have enough innings to make the ERA+ leader board at Baseball-Reference, but if he did, he’d be in good company. The other active pitchers with ERA+ in the 120s:

• Roy Halladay 128
• Curt Schilling 127
• John Smoltz 127
• Tim Hudson 126
• Mike Timlin 125
• Bob Wickman 125 (this doesn’t help my case, does it?)
• Mark Buerhle 121
• Mike Mussina 121
• Derek Lowe 120
• Jake Peavy 120 (go figure him being so low)

What I appreciate about Mahay is that he’s faced some pretty good obstacles, above and beyond starting to pitch professionally at age 25. He’s likely faced some tough clubhouses since he was a replacement. I’m not saying players are wrong for giving the cold shoulder to someone who crossed the line, but I am acknowledging the extra challenge an unforgiving and un-supporting clubhouse can present.

And also, Mahay has battled back from three full seasons that were atrocious – enough so to end a pitching career for a former outfielder. Look at these stinkers:

Oh, and he’s been released by the Red Sox, Padres, Cubs and Rangers – and purchased by the Florida Marlins from the Oakland A’s. It’s never a good sign when the Marlins buy you.

But he’s preserved. And now he’s in the first year of a two-year, $8M deal with the Royals. Props to Ron Mahay – one of the game’s best middle relievers.

Editor’s Note: We’re toying with the idea of each Sunday re-posting the best article and discussion of the previous week. Either that or the Editor’s choice for “under-noticed” article of the week.  Please let us know what you think. We’ll start this weekly post with the popular Omar Vizquel HOF debate.   

———-

Three of our writers (Jason Cook, Doug Bird and John Quemere) debate the Hall of Fame candidacy of Omar Vizquel. Note: Doug Bird’s piece was posted earlier, only to have some lame editor accidentally delete it. Apologies to those readers who had posted comments on Doug’s original column.

Jason Cook: No, No, No to Omar in the Hall

Defensive wizard Omar Vizquel’s career appears to be coming to a close. One of the better glove men at shortstop during his generation, many wonder whether Vizquel belongs in the Hall.

Let me say this: “no, no, no, no.”

The Hall of Fame is a funny thing. One can make arguments for or against many “borderline” HOFers - see Rice, Jim and McGwire, Mark.

But is this day and age of advanced statistics we can come close to measuring a players chances for the Hall of Fame compared with other players. The Hall of Fame Career Standard Test gives a score based on a number of achievements. An average HOFer has a score of about 50. Vizquel stands at 33 – less than Andres Galarraga (35) and John Olerud (38).

Vizquel looks better if we use the Hall of Fame Monitor, which calculates the likelihood (not the worthiness) of enshrinement. A “good possibility” for the Hall will score 100, while 130 is “a near clinch.” Vizquel comes in with a score of 104, just above a “good possibility.” But when we look at who’s ahead of Vizquel, the argument weakens. Galarraga (114) again, Juan Gonzalez (120) and Nomar Garciaparra (112) are all ahead of Vizquel.

The Monitor score for those most comparable to Vizquel (six* of the 10 HOFers) don’t help much.

• Luis Aparicio*: 149.5
• Ozzie Smith*: 142.5
• Rabbit Maranaville (1912-35)*: 59
• Dave Concepcion: 106.5
• Nellie Fox*: 163
• Red Schoendiest*: 109.5
• Bill Dahlen: 78.5
• Pee Wee Reese*: 99.5
• Willie Randolph: 92
• Bert Campaneris: 76

He outscores only two of the HOFers and is beaten by a wide margin by his two most comparable players. Another, Concepcion, seen as very borderline, outscores him.

Without using Hall of Fame metrics and using good ‘ol regular stats it is still difficult to recommend Vizquel for the Hall.

• .273 BA – tied for others at 795 all-time, but ahead of HOFers Phil Rizzuto and Joe Morgan
• .339 OBP – 848 all-time, ahead of Ozzie Smith
• 83 OPS plus - not in the top ~1,000 all-time
• 71% stolen base rate; number 21 on caught stealing list all-time
• Three career all-star games and one top 20 MVP finish

I understand he was playing with the A-Rod/Jeter/Nomars of the world, but only three ASGs?

Vizquel is a one-dimensional player who is not worthy of Hall of Fame induction. There are players who have yet to be admitted at his position (Alan Trammel tops among them) who need to be in their first. If a DH (Edgar Martinez) doesn’t get into the Hall, then please leave these defensive specialists out.

Doug Bird: Omar Vizquel Belongs

The career of San Francisco Giants shortstop Omar Vizquel seems to be in its final stretch, as the 41-year-old is hitting just .171. But it’s a career that in a few years should result in his election to the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame. His list of career accomplishments and awards is as impressive as it is lengthy, and he is one of the greatest shortstops of his generation, if not all-time.

Vizquel began his major league career in 1989 with the Seattle Mariners, after signing as an undrafted free agent in 1984. He moved on to the Cleveland Indians in 1994, the team with whom he enjoyed his greatest personal and team success. He’s been with the San Francisco Giants since the 2005 season. Vizquel was and continues to be regarded as a spectacular defensive player and one of the top fielding shortstops in the history of major league baseball.

Although early in his career he was considered great field but no hit, Vizquel, in his fourth big league season, began to add accomplished hitter to his resume as well. Over the span of his lengthy career, Vizquel was a human highlight reel defensively and an important offensive contributor and clubhouse leader with the great Cleveland Indian teams of the 1990’s.

Vizquel won nine consecutive Gold Glove awards (1993-2001) and also won the award in 2005 and 2006. In those same two seasons Vizquel became the oldest player to ever receive a Gold Glove at his position, at ages 38 and 39. Only Hall of Famer Ozzie smith has won more Gold Gloves at shortstop. His fielding percentage of .984 was, as of 2007, the highest in baseball history. He tied the American League record for most consecutive games without an error (95), and on May 25 of this season he became the all-time leader in games played at shortstop. He has been part of more double plays than any shortstop in history, and he is tied for the record of fewest errors in a season by a shortstop (3).

But being a one dimensional player usually doesn’t get you into the Hall of Fame. Vizquel has been much more than that and has been steadily climbing up the charts in some all-time offensive statistics as well. Some stats:

• Has 2,616 hits and in 2007 became the 83rd player to reach 2,500 hits
• Second all-time in hits by a shortstop behind only Luis Aparicio
• Career batting average of .273
• Number four in runs scored while playing shortstop
• Active player leader in hits and at bats
• Seventh in career stolen bases by a shortstop
• One of only three American League players to get six hits in a nine inning game
• Three time all-star
• Integral part of two AL championship teams (Cleveland Indians 1995 and 1997) six division winning teams (Cleveland Indians 1995-1999 and 2001).
• Won the Hutch Award in 1996, and was the only non-American player to ever do so
• In 2007 won the Heart and Hustle Award, embodying the “values, spirit and tradition of the game”
• Member of the Hispanic Heritage Baseball Museum Hall of Fame

While the old arguments against electing defensive-first players into the Hall of Fame still may have some validity, any player who has dominated his position defensively, standing head and shoulders above his peers, has to be seriously considered for election into the Hall of Fame. We have to remember that until recently, middle infielders were expected to consider defense their number one priority. Omar accomplished this and provided offense. He would get my vote for the Hall of Fame.

John Quemere: Omar Vizquel Doesn’t Make the Cut

I remember watching a Mets broadcast about two years ago when the Mets were playing in San Francisco. Around the bottom of the second or third inning the Mets broadcasters introduced Omar as the “Future Hall of Famer Omar Vizquel”. I hadn’t really thought about it before, but Omar Vizquel a Hall of Famer? I began to hear this statement more and more since Giants games were being broadcasted as often as “I Love Lucy” reruns because of Barry Bonds.

Many of the Broadcasters proclaimed that Omar had won 11 gold gloves and Ozzie had 13 so accordingly Omar should be in the Hall of Fame. First off, I’m not a big fan of the gold glove award because it’s not based on any statistical measurement. Secondly, it’s selection process seams completely arbitrary. And finally, cherry picking stats or awards to come up with reasons why your candidate belongs in the Hall is specious reasoning.

For example, Bill Madlock won 4 batting titles while Joe DiMaggio and Hank Aaron won two titles each and Mickey Mantle one title. Would anyone use that comparison as logic for why Bill Madlock should be in the Hall of Fame?

One of my main problems with Vizquel is that he was never considered a great player during any time in his career. Almost 20 years in the Majors and he only appeared on the MVP Vote ONE time – a 16th place finish in 1999. Ozzie Smith, with whom he is so often compared, appeared six times on the MVP vote and was the runner up in 1987. Actually it’s kind of insulting to compare Ozzie Smith to Vizquel.

Vizquel’s name only started to be mentioned as a possible Hall of Famer when he started passing such career milestones as games played at short and most hits at short. To me Vizquel has been an above average player who because he played for almost 20 years has compiled many career numbers that make his career seem more impressive than it actually was.

Some analysts like to say that passing career mile markers turns someone into a Hall of Famer, but I don’t agree with that logic.

If I take the SAT and get above average test scores 20 times, I’m still not getting into Harvard. You have to have some GREAT test scores to get into Harvard and Vizquel doesn’t have them.

But the main problem when you’re dealing with a player whose main contribution is defense is finding a matrix that properly expresses the value of that player. Win Shares is a pretty good statistic that values defense as well as offense. Let’s look at Vizquel’s career numbers. Anyone not familiar with win shares, a quick summary.

• 40-50 win shares: immortal seasons, Ruth-23, Wagner-08, Mantle-56, Bonds-01, etc.
• 30-39 win shares: MVP Seasons, Kent-00, Schmidt-80, Parker 78, etc.
• 20-29 win shares: All Star Seasons, Posada-07, Jeter-07, and Reyes 07
• 10-19 win shares: solid major league regular-Hermida-07, Teahan-07, Furcal-07
• 1-9 win shares: Bench players, weak players, injured players, and rookies.

Omar’s Win Share Totals:

• 1989-3
• 1990-2
• 1991-14
• 1992-12
• 1993-12
• 1994-7
• 1995-17
• 1996-16
• 1997-14
• 1998-18
• 1999-22
• 2000-16
• 2001-12
• 2002-19
• 2003-5
• 2004-17
• 2005-20
• 2006-19
• 2007-11
• 2008-2
• Total: 261

There are NO great seasons in his career. The total is good, but there are plenty of players with similar career numbers who are nowhere near the Hall.

In his 2000 Historical Abstract Bill James had Omar ranked as the 61st best shortstop in major league history. I think if he were to update his rankings today he would probably drop him down to 40th place around Larry Bowa, Gary Templeton and Marty Marion.

For me the line starts at Alan Trammel. It’s a sin that he isn’t in the Hall already.

Then after Trammel guys like Fregosi, Wills, Pesky, Dahlen and Stephens would be next in line.

Heck, Vizquel was nowhere near as good as Tony Fernandez, Bert Campaneris and Dave Concepcion – who not only put up great career numbers but also had MVP caliber seasons as well. Fernandez only received 4(!!!) Hall of Fame votes when he retired, but they want to vote for Omar Vizquel?

To me its mind boggling that some of the same reporters who never voted for Omar as a MVP candidate, (and with good reason) are now prepared to vote for him to the Hall of Fame.

“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.” – Alan Kay

Based on the more-than-likely percentage (44%) of correct National League division and award predictions I made at the beginning of this year, and reviewed earlier, it’s safe to say that a future as a Vegas handicapper is not in the cards for me. Seeing that I have no where to go but up, let’s take a gander at my pre-season American League and World Series calls to see if I have a chance at an over .500 season.

AL EAST

• My Pick: New York Yankees
• Current leader: Boston Red Sox

I must admit that I wasn’t overly confident in my Yankee pick, but I also didn’t believe the Red Sox would run off and hide, so I decided to take a chance. Speaking of taking a chance, I will mail two tickets to the 2086 World Series to any man or woman who can honestly say without a hint of miss-truth that they not only believed the Rays would do what they are doing this year, but actually picked them to win the division. By the way, many good seats for that 2086 World Series are still available, get yours today.

AL CENTRAL

• My Pick: Detroit Tigers
• Current leader: Chicago White Sox

For all the death bed talk surrounding the massively under-achieving Tigers, they are only a handful of games behind the ChiSox. By mid-August they are just as likely to be leading the division as they are to be 16 games out. Amid all the chaos is a helluva lot of talent, and I still believe the Tigers will win this division. Send your condolences to my email.

AL WEST

• My Pick: Los Angeles Angels
• Current leader: Los Angeles Angels

At the midway point the Angels are right there with the Cubs and Red Sox for the best record in baseball. I only wish I had picked them to win it all, because as of right now, in my mind, this is the team to beat. Scioscia and his coaches have great pitching, they have great hitting (that scarily enough is not actually hitting as well as it can) and they know how to win. Look out Red Sox fans; this is the team that will knock the crown off of your boys’ heads.

AL WILD CARD

• My Pick: Boston Red Sox
• Current leader: Tampa Bay Rays

The Sox can’t be leading the Wild Card as long as they are leading the East, so their goes this pick up in smoke. Again, did anyone think Tampa Bay would be there at the half way point? If you did you have the guts of a cat burglar. I don’t know if Tampa will hold on, but I hope they do. Baseball needs a team like them every year. It keeps the game fresh.

AL MANAGER OF THE YEAR

• My Pick: Mike Scioscia, Los Angeles Angels

Like in the NL, my AL Manager of the Year pick is already irrelevant. Scioscia and his team will have a great year, but he will finish a distant second in the Manger of the Year voting to Tampa Bay Ray skipper Joe Maddon. In the off season, after he has collected his MOY plaque, Maddon will move on to his winter job which involves healing the blind and turning water into wine.

AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

• My Pick: David Price, Tampa Bay Rays

That’s right; I am two for two in outrageous young pitching prospect picks for ROY. Like my choice of the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw in the NL, picking Price was a long shot and borderline dumb, but gutsy. If Price leaves spring camp with the Rays, and pitches like the hype surrounding him, I look like a genius. If he doesn’t (and yes, he didn’t) I’m just another guy with a busted ROY pick.

AL CY YOUNG AWARD

• My Pick: John Lackey, Los Angeles Angels

Right team, wrong guy. At the rate Francisco Rodriguez is saving games, it will be hard for Cy Young voters to ignore him at the end of the year. With more than 30 saves under his belt already this year Bobby Thigpen’s single season record of 57 is well within reach. Add the rest of his dominate numbers in and you have the first reliever to win the AL Cy Young Award since Dennis Eckersley in 1992. Rodriguez will face stiff competition from teammates Lackey and Ervin Santana, as well as Cliff Lee and a host of other quality AL starters.

AL MVP AWARD

• My Pick: Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers

Cabrera, like the Tigers, has left a bad taste in more than one pre-season prognosticator’s mouth. Although his numbers aren’t horrendous, Cabrera is currently a pale imitation of his NL self. Could he still win the award? Absolutely. A dominate second half leading the Tigers to the post-season could propel him to the top of the list. “Will he” is another story entirely. If I was making a pick right now, I would go with Manny Ramirez or Josh Hamilton.

AL CHAMPIONS

• My Pick: Detroit Tigers

Do we really need to discuss how the Tigers have disappointed everyone so far this year anymore than we already have?

WORLD SERIES

• My Pick: Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
• My Champion Pick: Detroit Tigers

Yep. You guessed it. The Tigers and their lack of bite have jumped up and bit me in the prediction once again. Can this World Series still happen? Sure. But what are my chances? Based on stats and trends I have probably about as good a chance of running into D.B. Cooper with a parachute full of old currency. If I had to make a mid-season pick right now I would say a Phillies/Angels or Cardinals/Angels World Series is as likely as any other combination.

Sadly, I feel that I only have a solid chance of getting my AL West pick correct, making me 1 for 12 with these predictions.

Adding them into my previous NL picks and you get the possibility of 23% of my predictions having a chance of coming true. If this was the NCAA Men’s Basketball bracket I would be gone after the first round.

But that is the great thing about baseball, and baseball predictions. There’s always next year.

But for now … GO TIGERS.

Man oh man, it hasn’t been a good time to be a manager or, in the case of Seattle, a general manager. Naturally there was the seemingly obligatory, “We’re not firing the GM or the manager. There is absolutely no chance of that. He’s doing a good job.” Also the seemingly obligatory after firing comment, “He did a great job for us. It wasn’t his fault.” Yeah, like we didn’t see that one coming.

Next to go will certainly be Mets GM Omar Minaya and Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi.

Minaya needs to go because of his bad trades and subsequent poorly functioning teams. Perhaps he was the victim of scouts who improperly evaluated players or forgot to check if these players preferred standing around to actually hustling. That was certainly the case in Seattle. Firing coaches, especially the massive housecleaning in New York and Toronto (what could a first base coach have done to warrant being fired?) seems excessive to me and certainly doesn’t make the organizations involved look very classy. Perhaps manager Willie Randolph was too laid back but his replacement, Jerry Manuel, showed little class by making a comment about how he was going to change this and that on the Mets. As a Fox baseball commentator pointed out, wasn’t that his job when he was the bench coach?

In Toronto, Cito Gaston is back and Ernie Whitt and John Gibbons were fired. That the Jays were even contending at all last year with the injuries they had and Vernon Wells and Alex Rios playing this season without any fire at all (big money means little desire?) should have counted for something.

And what could Ernie have done to deserve joining Gibbons on the unemployment line? I mean Ernie Whitt for God’s sake!

Watching the Blue Jays games last weekend on the CBC (Canadian Broadcasting Corporation) and seeing Gaston back in the dugout caused me to have a late 80’s or early 90’s flashback. Will Ricciardi bring back Exhibition Stadium next? Or Lloyd Moseby? Classy Ernie Whitt won’t be coming back to Toronto, you can rest assured.

Now, all three teams have a group of overpaid and nonchalant players they either can’t get rid of without eating some big salaries. Seattle has Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexton, Jose Vidro and Kenji Johjima. The Mets have Carlos Delgado, the always hurt Moises Alou and the nowadays always fragile Pedro Martinez. Toronto has Vernon Wells, Alexis Rios, and AJ Burnett and a team that not even Scot Rolen or David Eckstein can wake up, when they are healthy, that is.

All three teams were built by their current GMs whose job it is, of course, to get the best, not only talent wise but heart wise, players they can. All three teams have big budgets and can’t use money as an excuse for their failings. The majors are ripe with potential GM replacements. In fact, Minaya recently hired Wayne Krivsky, who was fired earlier in the year from his position as Reds’ GM. Talk about a ready-made replacement.

When Seattle hires a new GM, he’ll have to completely clean staff, certainly in the front office and in the scouting department. The new GM in New York will have to have the power to make independent decisions and be a better judge of talent. Oh yeah, and have some class as well.

Probably this coming off season, we’ll be seeing three new recycled managerial and GM faces in Seattle, New York and Toronto. The bloodletting is probably over for awhile but there could be more at the end of the 2008 season. Rumors earlier in the season had Ron Washington’s Texas job in trouble, and there are rumblings in Houston about Cecil Cooper. Dusty Baker is signed for three years in Cincinnati but the Reds are playing poorly and new GM Walt Jocketty will likely want his own guy there. Ned Yost in Milwaukee seems to be one losing streak away from being let go and the Rockies have disappointed this season.

If you win, you’re a genius; if you lose, you’re a bum. The other old saying: “You can’t fire 25 players.”

“Once you’re halfway home you know that you can probably get the rest of the way there.” – Janis Ian

What seems like started yesterday is already halfway over. By this weekend almost all of Major League Baseball’s 30 clubs will have played 81 games. I, like most baseball nuts, made my share of preseason picks. With a 50% sampling of games in the books let’s check in with my predictions to see how well or poorly I’ve done. Let’s start with the Senior Circuit. Feel free to play along at home.

NL EAST

• My pick: Philadelphia Phillies
• Current leader: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have played well, but not nearly well enough to convince me that they will actually hold on and win the East. The Marlins will continue to hang around, but I am not sure for how long. The Mets will most likely continue to under-achieve, but don’t be surprised if they catch fire and win the division.

NL CENTRAL

• My pick: Milwaukee Brewers
• Current leader: Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have played very well so far and unless they turn into a .500 club from this point on they should hold on to win this division. The Cardinals are their closest competition, and have done so with smoke and mirrors. As long as they stay close to the Cubs anything can happen. My pick, the Brewers, is within striking distance, but I don’t believe they have the pitching to make this a three team race.

NL WEST

• My pick: Los Angeles Dodgers
• Current leader: Arizona Diamondbacks

The D’Backs flew out of the gates and had the look of a team that would run away and hide from all comers. Then April turned into June. The Dodgers’ young hitters are just a few at-bats away from figuring out just how good they can be. Couple that with a solid pitching staff and I like the chances of my pick being right there in the last week of the season with a solid chance to win the division.

NL WILDCARD

• My pick: Atlanta Braves
• Current leader: St. Louis Cardinals

Very few baseball people believed the Cardinals would be anything more than a sub-.500 also-ran at the onset of this season. Tony LaRussa and his boys have, so far, thrown that notion back in everyone’s faces. My pick, the Braves, have been injury riddled and most likely won’t be a factor in this or the East race.

NL MANAGER OF THE YEAR

• My Pick: Joe Torre, Los Angeles Dodgers

This pick coincides with my pick of LA as the NL West winner. None of that matters now. Everyone expected the Cardinals to play like a plug nickel and all they’ve done is play like a shiny silver dollar. This is Tony LaRussa’s award to lose.

NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR AWARD

• My Pick: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

I fully expected 19-year-old Kershaw to be called up by mid-May and dominate like a 19-year-old Fernando did before in 1981, and I was right. At least on the mid-May call up part. Kershaw has pitched well but not nearly well enough to be in the ROY discussion, at least for now.

NL CY YOUNG AWARD

• My Pick: Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies

Hamels has pitched very well, even if his record isn’t quite as good as some of his top Cy Young competition. Regardless of record, his strikeouts, ERA and WHIP are quite juicy. When the final votes are tallied in November look for Hamels, Brandon Webb and Edinson Volquez to all finish in the top three with the final order yet to be determined.

NL MVP

• My Pick: Chase Utley

Yes, I went out on a limb (like a few million other baseball people) and picked Chase Utley as my pre-season choice for NL MVP. He hasn’t disappointed. If things continue, look for Utley to win a close race with Lance Berkman, Chipper Jones, Albert Pujols and long-shot dark horse Ryan Ludwick all finishing in the top five or six.

NL CHAMPIONS

• My Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers

So far the Dodgers are still alive and kicking, but not playing nearly as well as I thought they would. If one was inclined to make a mid-season pick for the NL, as of right now you can’t ignore the Cubs (even if history does), the Cardinals or Phillies as the teams to beat with the Diamondbacks and my pick the Dodgers pushing hard to join them in a five team race for the pennant.

Of my nine National League predictions, I believe that four of them (NL EAST, WEST, CY YOUNG and MVP) have a chance of coming true by the end of the year. That’s a 44% clip. Not exactly setting the world on fire, am I?

But alas, tomorrow will bring another day and a chance at prediction redemption, so stay tuned for my AL predictions and emanate disasters.

Here’s a 25-fact roster for you:

1. Aaron Boone, now playing for the Nationals, reached the 1,000 career hit mark Wednesday to join grandfather Ray (1,260), father Bob (1,838) and brother Bret (1,775) in the club of 1,171 major leaguers.

2. So far this season, the Padres have allowed 103 stolen bases – by far the most in the majors (the White Sox are next having allowed 75).

3. Pittsburgh outfielder Morgan should be playing for Newark or some team in greater New York – his first name is Nyjer.

4. Twins catcher Justin Morneau only has two homers this season, but he does have 28 multi-hit games and a .305 batting average.

5. Tracking Paplebon: This year, the dancing closer appeared in his 35th game in the Sox 81st game of the season. Last year, when the Sox were being careful because he ended the 2006 season with arm trouble, he appeared in his 35th game in the team’s 100th game. In 2006, the season that ended with a sore shoulder, Pap appeared in his 35th game in the Red Sox 76th game of the season.

6. Speaking of closers - Can Angels closer Francisco Rodriguez break the single season save record? K-Rod leads the majors with 31 saves in 33 chances and the Angels are 35-2 in games he has pitched. Rodriguez became the first pitcher in the majors to notch 30 saves on June 22 at Philly, the earliest in a season a pitcher ever reached 30 saves, both by date (June 22) and number of team games (76). The record for saves is 57 by Bobby Thigpen of the White Sox in 1990.

7. The Rays did not get their 47th win last season until Aug. 19, in their 123rd game.

8. Five Giants pitchers have made a total of six All-Star starts: Jason Schmidt in 2003. Rick Reuschel in 1989, Vida Blue in 1978, Juan Marichal in 1965 and ’67, and the most famous, Carl Hubbell (of the New York Giants), in 1934. Hubbell struck out future Hall of Famers Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, Al Simmons, and Joe Cronin consecutively in that game. Tim Lincecum may be the next Giants All-Star starter this July.

9. Those oldies but goodies – 44-year old Randy Johnson faced 41-year old Tim Wakefield this week. The folks at Elias said it also was a match of starters with the oldest combined age, 86 years, 252 days, since Satchel Paige, at 59 years, 81 days, allowed just one hit in three shutout innings against Bill Monbouquette, at 29 years, 45 days, who pitched a complete game for a 5-2 win over the host Kansas City Athletics. They were a combined 88 years, 126 days old. Wake and the Big Unit have combined for 6,551 strikeouts in 6,660 1/3 innings.

10. The Indians have used 38 players already this season after only using 41 all last year.

11. On Wednesday, Barry Zito threw six consecutive scoreless innings against the Indians. It was only the third time this season he pitched more than three consecutive scoreless innings.

12. To catch a thief - Jimmy Rollins has stolen 31 straight bases without being caught – the longest active streak in the major leagues. The whole team is good at thievery. The Phils have stolen 22 straight bases without being caught, and as a team they have 63 stolen bases and have only been caught 7 times (90.0% stolen base rate) – the best in the majors

13. Detroit’s Eddie Bonine became only the second big-league pitcher in at least 53 years to give up at least six runs in his debut and win. The other was Philadelphia’s Dave Coggin on June 23, 2000 against the Expos.

14. Reason for concern: in Jason Varitek’s last 60 games last season he went 43-191 – a .225 batting average. This season, in 63 games, Tek is 49 for 212 – a .231 batting average. That’s a .228 average over the last year and this is his contract year.

15. No team in baseball history has fallen 18 games below .500, as the Rockies did on June 2 at 20-38, and gone on to make the postseason. The closest would be the 1914 Boston Braves, who were 16 below .500 at 12-28 before finishing 94-59 and sweeping the Philadelphia Athletics in the World Series. The 2005 Astros came back from 15 games below .500 to win the wild card and go to the World Series.

16. Without a prayer – The Nationals seem to be getting worse despite the fact that sometimes they field a team that has Jesus pitching to Jesus and a pretty good Cristian at short. I am referring pitcher Jesus Colome, catcher Jesus Flores, and shortstop Cristian Guzman.

17. Toronto is 11-20 in one-run games and 3-7 in extra-inning games.

18. If the season ended today, the teams with the top three payrolls in baseball, the Yankees, the Mets, and the Tigers would miss the playoffs for the first time in 17 years.

19. When you look at J.D. Drew’s 10 homers this month, don’t get too excited. The AL record for a month is held by Rudy York who went deep 18 times in August, 1937 as a rookie for the Detroit Tigers. He hit .360 that month with 49 RBI. He missed the first three games that month, but caught 28 games in 28 days including four doubleheaders. Let’s see Drew play for 28 straight days.

20. Speaking of rookies, with outfielder Justin Christian joining the Yankees on Tuesday, the New Yawkahs have now used 11 rookies this season

21. Bill Mazeroski was a part of 1,706 double plays, the most of any second baseman.

22. Speaking of second basemen, the Marlins Dan Uggla, with 23 home runs, is one of only two second basemen in ML history with 20+ homers in each of his first three ML seasons. The other is Joe Gordon, who had four straight (1938-41) to start his career with the NY Yankees.

23. The Reds, Astros, Mets, Giants and Marlins don’t have a complete game this season. Last season, the Rangers, Nationals and Marlins didn’t have a complete game. The Marlins haven’t thrown a complete game since Anibal Sanchez went the distance Sept. 16, 2006 –a stretch of 254 consecutive games heading into Friday’s action. The Washington Nationals set the major league record for consecutive games without a complete game with 261 before Jason Bergmann threw one May 31.

24. The Cubs Ryan Dempster is 9-0 at Wrigley with a 2.72 ERA and away from home is 0-2 with a 2.48 ERA.

25. There has been no reason to vote for All-Stars until today. Now is when you should cast your 25 votes. You have until July 2.

Have a great weekend everyone

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide. Autographed first editions are available by contacting, Bill@billy-ball.com or order directly from Acta Sports or from your favorite bookstore.

“I threw so hard I thought my arm would fly right off my body”*

It’s the final game of the World Series, and Boston fans are screaming for their team. A tired and battered hero, after leading the league in wins over the regular season, takes the mound and closes out the victory, bringing glory to his city and finally rising above the hated rivals of New York. Immediately, the clamor begins to raise their champion to the proverbial “hall of fame” where his name will live forever, praising his “great balls of fire from the mound.” Curt Schilling in 2004? Not quite: Smoky Joe Wood in 1912.

How quickly we lose sight of the past in the vivid crush of the present. One of the symptoms of this myopia is the widespread suggestion that Curt Schilling belongs in the Hall of Fame, there to join his blood-red sock, particularly now that his career seems likely to be over. Schilling was a fine pitcher, no argument, and he indeed toiled for several championship teams. But let’s take a breath and get some perspective here before we anoint Curt Schilling the greatest gift to humanity between fire and Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Over a 20 year career, he put together only three truly outstanding seasons – 2001, 2002, and 2004 – although he did not win the Cy Young award in any of them. His contribution to the 1993 National League champion Philadelphia Phillies was actually minimal and far from remarkable: he had a 1-1 record in the World Series, earned no decisions in the NLCS, and was in fact not even an average pitcher in the regular season, posting an adjusted ERA+ of 99. On that team, Schilling’s regular season was in fact eclipsed by the similar but superior effort of “who’s he?” Tommy Greene, who placed sixth in Cy Young voting as the only Phillie on that list.

Three Championship seasons do not a Hall of Famer make, nor do four World Series appearances. Smoky Joe Wood was vastly superior to Schilling in seasons 1911, 1912, 1915 and 1920 combined, while also involved in three world championships. His adjusted ERA+ of 169 eclipses Schilling’s 129 by far; he led the league in ERA, wins, and shutouts once each to Schilling’s two Wins titles; and he was most definitely the best pitcher in his league in 1912 – a claim to fame Schilling never achieved. But Wood did only pitch in one World Series, in 1912, winning three games including the clincher. Schilling does have more postseason appearances to his credit.

Given the current watered-down, three-tiered playoff structure, it’s apples and oranges when comparing Curt Schilling’s 11-2 postseason record to the pitchers of the past. So let’s focus on the biggest games of every season: those in the World Series. Schilling pitched in seven games over four Series, starting all of them. He has a sparkling 4-1 record with a 2.06 ERA over 48 innings, and his teams were 3-1 in those Championships. Here are some other non-Hall members, just for comparison:

• Jack Coombs: 2-1 team WS record, 5-0 record with 2.70 ERA in 53.1 innings
• George Earnshaw: 2-1 / 4-3 / 1.58 / 62.7
• Harry Brecheen: 2-1 / 4-1 / 0.83 / 32.7
• Allie Reynolds: 6-0 / 7-2 / 2.79 / 77.3
• Vic Raschi: 6-0 / 5-3 / 2.24 / 60.3
• Ken Holtzman: 3-0 / 4-1 / 2.55 / 35.3
• Ron Guidry: 2-1 / 3-1 / 1.69 / 32.0

All of these were decent, maybe even noteworthy pitchers, but none is an immortal. And lest we forget. . . .

Over 50 years ago (long before he pitching-coached a young reliever named Curt Schilling into becoming a starter), a young left-hander named John Joseph Podres made his debut for the 1953 Brooklyn Dodgers, who would eventually lose to the Yankees in that season’s World Series. Over the next decade, he would appear in three more Series, starting a total of six games. He posted a 4-1 record with a 2.11 ERA in 38.1 innings, and his Dodger teams were 3-1. In 1955 he, too, was instrumental in “reversing a curse” of monstrous proportions, finally getting the Yankee monkey off the Dodger back and winning the first (and only) Championship for Brooklyn since they had begun playing ball 71 years earlier. Podres started and won two complete games in that Series, including the Game 7 clincher, surrendering only two earned runs over 18 innings. He was selected as the WS MVP in 1955 and made four All-Star teams over the course of his career, but I can’t seem to find him in the Hall of Fame.

Even farther back in time, Montgomery Marcellus Pearson helped the New York Yankees establish a mark only their own franchise would ever match: four consecutive World Series titles. Two were sweeps, one was a 4-games-to-2 victory and one a 4-1 margin, so Pearson only got to pitch in one game each Series. He did make the most of his time on the mound, completing three of his four starts (and going 8.2 innings in the fourth), posting a 4-0 record with a 1.01 ERA in 35.2 innings. Yet, somehow, Monte Pearson’s plaque isn’t in Cooperstown either.

If all that seems like ancient history, consider Yankee lefthander Andy Pettitte. In his four best World Series (1996, 1998, 2000, and 2003) his numbers are nearly interchangeable with Schilling’s: 7 games, all starts; 3-2 record with a 2.09 ERA in 47.1 innings; team record of 3-1. It seems so tenuous at this point to base Curt Schilling’s Hall-worthiness solely on his postseason record.

Ah, but perhaps Schilling’s greatness lies in his ability to get his teams to the postseason and then seal each deal with masterful World Series performances. Two words should put paid to that theory: “Ed” and “Lopat.” Steady Eddie was one of the few to pitch in five consecutive World Series, from 1949 through 1953 – for teams which went 5-0 in Series play. Like Schilling he pitched in and started seven games, and also posted a 4-1 record, albeit with an ERA of 2.60 over 52.0 innings. Also like Schilling, control was his calling card, as he issued free passes to only 2.1 batters per nine Series innings, only a hair above Schilling’s 1.9 ratio.

Lopat’s performances during those Championship seasons to get the Yankees to the big dance were also the equal of Schilling’s. From 1949 through 1953, Lopat’s average season was 16-7 with an adjusted ERA+ of 131 in 202 innings. Schilling’s average mark was 17-7 with an adjusted ERA+ of 129 in 217 innings. There’s no significant quality distinction here whatsoever. In short, Lopat was just as good or better during the seasons and in the Series for his teams than Curt Schilling – and for five crucial seasons to Schilling’s four – yet the best support he could muster for the Hall of Fame was a grand total of four votes (1.1% of the vote total) in 1971, and he was dropped from the ballot after only collecting half that many a year later.

That’s because it takes more than small-sample Series or season success to secure a spot in baseball’s pantheon. And Curt Schilling’s entire career simply isn’t of Hall quality, although it is certainly close. He’s sort of a poor man’s Kevin Brown: just replace two ERA titles with two strikeout titles to go along with two WHIP titles, three GS leaderships, six All-Star selections, a career adjusted ERA+ of 127, and the transformation would be complete. Of course, the poverty is relative: Schilling’s career earnings in excess of $114 million would buy a lot of sunflower seeds.

Eventually the fireworks illuminating Red Sox Nation will dim, and we will be able to see the career of Curt Schilling more clearly. And he will certainly be remembered as a solid pitcher and a dependable contributor – one of the top 50 in history, undoubtedly, but firmly in the line for the Hall behind his contemporaries Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and Tom Glavine.

*Smoky Joe Wood comment after game one of the 1912 World Series

Chase Utley

• Second baseman
• Philadelphia Phillies
• DOB: 12/17/1978
• Height/Weight: 6’1″/180lb
• Bats/Throws: Left/Right
• Body Type: Average size, athletic body, durable frame

Categorization

• Current: Premium
• Projected: Premium/Elite

Categorization Scale:

• Elite: top player at his position (Joe Morgan)
• Premium: top five at his position (Robbie Alomar)
• Good: top 10 at his position; occasional All-Star (Ian Kinsler, Frank White)
• Average: everyday position player (Ryan Theriot)
• Key role: part-time or platoon player (Akinori Iwamura)

GRADES (20-80 scale)

Overall: 70

Batting: 70

• Power: 65
• Contact: 65
• Average: 70

Running: 65

• Speed: 60
• Base Running: 65 
• Instinct: 75

Fielding: 60

• Hands: 60
• Footwork: 55
• Range: 55 

Throwing: 50

• Release: 50
• Arm Strength: 55
• Arm Accuracy: 50

Overall 

Chase Utley is good – really good.

How’s that for a scouting report? Can we stop now?

Sometimes you know what to expect from a player. There’s no big change in his performance, no major holes to be exploited and no predicted demise – just consistent excellence. And that pretty much describes Utley.

We consider Utley to be a PREMIUM player. This is his fourth straight year producing at an ELITE level, and with another year of such production, we’ll feel comfortable categorizing him as ELITE. Just like Hall of Fame election demands dominance over an extended period of time (or at least it should), ELITE status requires elite production over time – usually four to five years. Here are some of Utley’s key stats from 2005 on:

Though his batting average is down, Utley is having his most productive year yet. His National League rankings through June 25th:

• 5th in Slugging (.608)
• 4th in OPS (.994)
• 4th in Runs (57)
• 2nd in Total Bases (180)
• 3rd in RBIs (63)
• 5th in OPS+ (153)
• 2nd in Home Runs (22)

What makes Utley even more valuable to the Phillies is the fact that he plays second base – traditionally home to weaker offensive players. Only one other middle infielder ranks in the top ten in OPS+ in either league, and that’s Florida second baseman Dan Uggla (165). Teams that get great offensive production from the middle infield without significantly sacrificing defense have a big advantage, and it’s not a coincidence that Philadelphia and Florida are atop the National League East standings.

Advance Update

Utley continues to do what he’s done for the past three years. He’s consistently producing at the plate and more than fits the profile of a second baseman and a middle of the line-up guy on a championship team. He’s a big time competitor who has been able to get the most out of his tools, which rate at above average, because of his work ethic and mental toughness. He makes few mental errors and is always prepared.

Offense

Utley hasn’t changed his swing much over the years. He’s always been slightly open and has always been able to use the entire field. The biggest difference in his approach is the ability to split the plate in half. In other words, when he thinks about pulling the ball he is disciplined enough and sees the ball longer, enabling him to make a better decision and swing at balls on the inner half. In the past, he’s tried to pull everything and as a result ended up rolling over too many to the second baseman.

Utley has made a deliberate attempt to be more relaxed with his upper body via a rocking motion with his hips and legs, with his hands lower than their normal position. But as the pitcher decides to release the ball, Utley’s weight is back and his hands are higher.

Utley continues to be consistent in his approach in every game. Good games, bad games, errors, strikeouts, or home runs – Utley doesn’t change. Mental toughness.

Defense

Utley wasn’t a good second baseman when he came to the major leagues. He has put in a lot of time prior to games and during the off-season to hone his glove work. While Utley will never be a gold glove second baseman – he simply doesn’t have the footwork – he has improved a great deal. He is one of the game’s most consistent and dependable second baseman.

Strengths

• Second baseman who can hit in the middle of a championship team line-up
• Consistent production
• Great work ethic
• Represents his team and the city of Philadelphia well

Weaknesses

We’re being picky, but…

Utley still strikes out too much. He could be a little more patient at the plate. He might take the first pitch he sees, but after that, he’s swinging. He has a hole up in the strike zone, and though he gets better plate coverage than most, he rarely drives a high fastball thrown over 90 mph.

Successful Pitcher Plan

A successful pitching plan against Utley requires that a pitcher have access to extensive advance scouting. Utley has the ability to change his approach and swing, and a pitcher needs to understand the potential adjustments. For a pitcher facing him the first time, it’s best to attack early with a power arm. Utley generates the most power in the lower half of the zone, so being careful with the use of low fastballs and sliders is important.

A hard sinking fastball or a changeup moving away from Utley from a right-handed pitcher would be more difficult for him to hit out of the park. From a left-hander, sliders to the outer third of the plate should limit him to singles. When Utley is hitting home runs to the opposite field, it may be best to walk him “unintentionally.”

Unsuccessful Pitching Plan

Utley is not the kind of hitter you want to attempt to trick. He is very smart and usually understands the plan against him. For example, he knows the majority of pitchers pitching from the first base side of the rubber are unable to throw strikes consistently to the outer half of the plate. So, he waits for the inside fastball. He will also attempt to understand the opposing pitching coach and pitcher to gauge their plan of attack against him. Utley is one of the most prepared hitters in the game and any pitcher thinking they will continually get him out with the same pitching pattern will not fare well.

We heard a rumor on WFAN about a Robinson Cano and Ian Kennedy for Roy Oswalt deal. Is there any truth to it? Hard to say. But it’s a fun one to discuss, nonetheless, so we asked for two writers to debate the merits of such a trade from the Yankees perspective. We got three. Here goes:

Catal Breen: Acquire the Dominant Pitcher!

Flipping a Cano/Kennedy for Oswalt exchange on its side every which way reveals only that this trade, unlike most in the rumor mill, makes perfect sense for both clubs.  The Yankees have shown they are still in the race in 2008 despite the multitude of injuries to their pitching staff. General Manager Brian Cashman has been forced to resort to signing oft-troubled and less-oft successful Sidney Ponson to a minor league deal just last week – showing just how much the Yankees need pitching.

The Astros, on the other hand, find themselves 13 games behind the Cubbies in the National League Central. Houston contention is no longer viable for 2008, despite General Manager and apparent wrestling heel Ed Wade’s best efforts (Miguel Tejada, Jose Valverde and Kazuo Matsui) otherwise
Kennedy would give the Astros a strong option at a 2009 replacement for Oswalt. While he wouldn’t immediately step into the number one slot in the rotation, he does have the potential to get there, especially in the hitting-challenged National League. Kennedy’s minor league career, while brief, has been nothing short of phenomenal. He’s compiled a 13-3 record and a 1.78 ERA in 29 minor league outings.  While he has struggled with control and confidence at the Big League level in 2008, he has the stuff necessary to excel with proper development. And for most pitchers, development at the major league level is easier without the expectations and pressure of playing in NYC.

Cano would be a big upgrade at second for the Astros, after the poor production of Matsui this year and two years of below average production by Craig Biggio. Cano is a much better long-term solution that Matsui, and since he’s under contract until 2011 at a very reasonable price, the Astros would be sure to get real value in return for Oswalt without hanging all of their hopes on Kennedy’s potential.

If the Yankees were to give up a top prospect in Kennedy and an everyday player in Cano, fans would be understandably up in arms if it was for a “rent-a-player.” But acquiring Oswalt is not one of those deals.  He is under contract through 2011 with a club option for 2012 – and Oswalt may ask that the option be picked up in exchange for waiving his no-trade clause.

Oswalt hasn’t had a great year so far, going 6-8 with a 4.77 ERA. But those numbers are a little misleading because of a couple bad starts in early April and another two in mid-May. In his last six starts, he hasn’t allowed more than three runs, and he’s lowered his ERA from 5.61 to the current 4.77. Oswalt is also a better pitcher in the second half. For his career, he’s 57-18 with a 2.98 ERA after the All-Star break opposed to 61-44 with a 3.34 ERA before it.

And let’s not forget that Oswalt has been one of the game’s best pitchers over the past eight years. His career adjusted ERA+ of 137 is tied with Randy Johnson’s for fourth best among active pitchers, behind Pedro Martine (159), Brandon Webb (143) and Johan Santana (141). Anytime you have the opportunity to obtain one of the game’s best, especially a pitcher, and especially in exchange for two players who aren’t currently contributing, you have to pull the trigger.

Don Ehrke: Good Deal for the Yankees, But The Astros Would Never Oblige

Unmistakable signs accompany the drift from spring to summer: the kids are out of school, blockbusters hit movie theaters, and baseball trade talks heat up with the weather. As the All-Star Game approaches teams are better able to assess their talent as well as their prospects of remaining in the pennant race. Clubs that thought they were solid coming out of spring training now see the inevitable holes that three months of play has exposed.

Teams that pinned their hopes on young prospects are also compelled to consider reality.

The New York Yankees need starting pitching. Ian Kennedy and Philip Hughes didn’t perform as hoped; Darrell Rasner hasn’t been spectacular in their stead; Chien-Ming Wang is likely gone for the season with the foot injury.

Adding the Astros’ Roy Oswalt to a rotation of Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte and Joba Chamberlain would greatly improve the Yankees’ hopes of winning the competitive American League East. Trading a pair of players – Kennedy and Robinson Cano – for Oswalt would be an intelligent move for the Yankees to make before Boston and Tampa Bay pull irreversibly ahead.

But, alas, the Astros will never make the trade.

Although Roy Oswalt has struggled this season, he remains the cornerstone of Houston’s pitching staff. Reflecting this, in August 2006 the Astros signed Oswalt to a five-year, $77M contract. Houston was stung by the recent free agent losses of Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte. If Oswalt wasn’t signed past 2008 we could reasonably assume that the Astros would trade him before they allowed another pitcher to escape without adequate compensation. The Astros, however, do not need to worry about losing Oswalt for at least three more seasons and are under no pressure to move the fan favorite.

More, the Astros don’t have anyone to take Oswalt’s place in the rotation. The 2007 club could neither pitch nor hit; in the off-season the Astros’ front office worked to address the team’s offensive deficiencies. In doing so, the Astros not only ignored their need for pitching at the major league level but also traded their best minor league prospects. To make matters worse, recent additions Jason Jennings (last seen as a Texas Ranger) and Woody Williams (who retired after spring training) were busts. This leaves them with oft-injured Brandon Backe, Wandy Rodriguez, 36-year-old Brian Moehler and Chris Sampson (12-12 lifetime) as potential starters. The Astros possess little depth in the starting rotation and can’t risk worsening the situation.

It’s unlikely that Ian Kennedy could take Oswalt’s place in the rotation. Even if Kennedy develops into an effective pitcher, how much better can he be than Oswalt (still only 30 years old and 118-61 in eight seasons)?

For the Astros to trade Oswalt to the Yankees they would need to value Robinson Cano as an exceptional complement to the club. Although Cano hasn’t played well his season, there’s every reason to suppose that he’ll return to his established level of excellence. Cano is better than Kaz Matsui, the current Astros second baseman. Also, Cano would form a solid nucleus of young players along with Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn. Nevertheless, offense isn’t the Astros’ primary concern – they should focus on pitching (currently 12th in the National League). Cano’s abilities are undeniable yet he doesn’t address Houston’s needs.

Finally, the Yankees signed Cano to a large contract. If the disappointing Astros were looking to lower costs by dumping Oswalt’s salary, their effort would be nearly offset by Cano’s new contract.

A Cano/Kennedy for Oswalt makes sense for New York but not for Houston. They say it takes “two to tango” – and the Astros aren’t dancing.

Jason Cook: No Way, New York

Now I am not going to say this trade is dumb for the Yankees – it’s not. Oswalt is a fantastic starter with a very good track record. His 162-game average looks very good:

• Wins: 17
• Losses: 8
• IP: 223
• K: 183
• BB: 55
• ERA: 3.19
• WHIP: 1.21

Two hundred plus innings with an almost 4:1 K:BB ratio and a low three ERA is a very good MLB starter. Even in this off year – where Oswalt stands at 6-8 with an ERA approaching 5.00, he has an 80/27 K/BB ratio and should still easily get over 200 IP. The Yankees would be smart to target him now, when his value is lower than in previous years.

But the price of Cano and Kennedy is too steep.

Despite his early struggles this year, Robinson Cano is on his way to becoming a stud second baseman. He alone would almost be too much to give for Oswalt. Cano’s 162-game numbers:

• BA: .302
• OBP: .336
• SLG: .466
• HR: 17
• 2B: 44
• RBI: 87

Cano looks to be poised to become an All-Star caliber second baseman for a long time, at a position where offense is at a premium. He needs better plate discipline, but that should come over time.

As is the case with Oswalt, Cano is having a down season. Through 77 games he sits at .241/.282/.350 with five homers and 28 RBI. And he’s hit .295 in May and .294 in June after a .151 April.

Cano also had a strong second half last year (145 OPS+ versus 98 for the first half), and things could be looking up in the second half of 2008. His batting average on balls in play is a low .246 while his career mark stands at .323. As that number levels off closer to the .300s, his average will rise. His home run/fly ball ratio is also very low, suggesting that the balls just aren’t getting out for him. Cano’s 4.8 percent HR/FB is less than half his 10.3 percent career mark.

Finally, Cano is cost effective. His four-year, $30 million contract is reasonable, especially considering former Yankee contracts. And while Kennedy has struggled at the big league level, remember, the Yankees wouldn’t include this guy in a deal for Johan Santana – they clearly believe in him.

Oswalt is a very solid pitcher and would be a much needed companion to Wang. But there are a few reasons why this deal would not make sense for New York.

Looking at age, Cano is 25 and Kennedy is 23, while Oswalt is 30. It wouldn’t be a stretch to say that the Yankees won’t go deep into the playoffs this season. With Wang on the DL for quite some time, questionable pitching and the Red Sox/Rays ahead of them, the Yankees should be looking to next season. Oswalt turns 31 in August, meaning he’ll be 32 when the Yankees can next expect to be in the playoffs. It doesn’t seem like a good idea to move two younger, cost-effective players for one who is older.

Speaking of cost-effective, Oswalt is not. He’s on the books to make $13 million this year, $14 million in ’09, $15M in ’10 and $16M in ’11.

The rumored Oswalt deal reminds me of the Red Sox deal with the Marlins for Josh Beckett, but worse. Hanley Ramirez has turned out to be a fantastic, MVP-type player. And while Beckett was lights out in the playoffs and has been very good for the club, I wonder if the front office would do it again.

But Beckett is younger than Oswalt, with almost the same amount of big league experience. While it’s doubtful Cano is a Ramirez level talent, I think the Yankees would regret moving over a decade of him playing second base at a high level for four to six years of Oswalt. If I were the GM of the Astros, I would take this deal in a heartbeat. Then again, I signed Kaz Matsui to a three-year, $16 million deal, so maybe I’m not the best judge of things.

The Yankees seem to have some good starting pitching in their farm system. I would wait on them, save some money, get younger and continue to have Cano as a major cog in my offensive machine.

I was thinking about Jackie Robinson today.

The Hall of Fame introduced a new plaque that pays tribute to the cultural impact he had on the game and the country as the first black player in the major leagues. The new plaque adds “Jackie” under his full name, Jack Roosevelt Robinson, and the inscription reads:

A player of extraordinary ability renowned for his electrifying style of play. Over 10 seasons hit .311, scored more than 100 runs six times, named to six All-Star teams and led Brooklyn to six pennants and its only World Series title, in 1955. The 1947 Rookie of the Year, and the 1949 N.L. MVP when he hit a league-best .342 with 37 steals. Led second basemen in double plays four times and stole home 19 times. Displayed tremendous courage and poise in 1947 when he integrated the modern major leagues in the face of intense adversity.

The old plaque read:

Jack Roosevelt Robinson

Brooklyn NL, 1947 to 1956

Leading N.L. batter in 1949. Holds fielding mark for second basemen playing in 150 or more games with .992. Led N.L. in stolen bases in 1947 and 1949. Most Valuable Player in 1949. Lifetime batting average .311. Joint record holder for most double plays by second baseman, 137 in 1951. Led second basemen in double plays 1949-50-51-52.

“Jackie asked the writers to base his career on performance alone,” Hall of Fame Chairman Jane Forbes Clark said. “He told them that when considering his candidacy for the Hall of Fame, they should only consider his playing ability, what his impact was on the playing field and please not consider anything but that. When his plaque was written in 1962, it reflected his wishes. It only recounted his magnificent career.

Hall President Jeff Idelson said the idea of a revised plaque came from Hall of Fame second baseman Joe Morgan, who is also the Hall’s vice chairman. Morgan met with Rachel Robinson in January who agreed that the 35th anniversary of the Jackie Robinson Foundation, which Rachel Robinson established in 1973 to perpetuate her husband’s legacy was ideal timing for the new plaque.

I was thinking about Roberto Clemente today.

Clemente is a hero to the Yankees’ five-time All-Star catcher Jorge Posada. According to the New York Times, while in Pittsburgh to play the Pirates, Posada Tuesday visited a museum honoring Roberto Clemente. Posada grew up in Puerto Rico, as did Clemente, and he was a year old when Clemente died in a plane crash in 1972. Posada went with his teammate José Molina, also a catcher from Puerto Rico.

While he was visiting the museum, Jorge took cell phone pictures of classic Clemente photographs. One is a posed shot of a young Clemente leaping to make a catch, with clouds in the background seeming to form wings on his shoulders. Posada ordered an enlargement of the picture for his home.

Posada said he knows Clemente’s widow, Vera, and he learned a lot at his tour of the museum. “Little things, not only baseball stuff,” Posada said. “They wanted him to be in ‘The Odd Couple,’ but he was going to have to hit into a triple play. He wouldn’t do it. He said, ‘I’m never going to hit into a triple play.’ ” Bill Mazeroski took Clemente’s place.

Posada has a sticker in his home locker supporting the movement to retire Clemente’s No. 21 throughout the majors. On the way to the clubhouse to the dugout at PNC Park there is a Clemente quote that reads: “Whenever I put on my uniform, I am the proudest man on Earth.”

I was thinking about Art Pennington today.

Art “Superman” Pennington starred in the Negro Leagues and hit .359 for the Chicago American Giants of the Negro Leagues as a 20-year-old in 1945. He spent most of the 1940s in the Negro Leagues and had a lifetime batting average of .337. He homered off Hall of Famer Dizzy Dean in an off-season exhibition game. He never made it to the majors. Pennington wound up his playing days in minor-league towns like Keokuk and Cedar Rapids, where he settled after he stopped playing.

He’s 85 years old now and the house he had lived in since 1960, on the 900 block of Fifth Street SE in Cedar Rapids, was wrecked by the recent flooding. In his retirement, he turned his collection of memorabilia into a home-based museum dedicated to the Negro Leagues and his career.

“All that insurance, it didn’t pay,” Pennington said. “I didn’t have flood insurance, so I don’t get a dime.”

Now he’s living with a friend who set up a MySpace site hoping to get donations to help Pennington get back on his feet.

I know what Jackie and Roberto would do if they were still alive. Let’s see what MLB and which major leaguers truly have learned from their legacy.

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide. Autographed first editions are available by contacting, Bill@billy-ball.com or order directly from Acta Sports, http://www.actasports.com/detail.html?&id=3427 or from your favorite bookstore.

More news by category Topic -: Buy phentermine saturday delivery ohio Tramadol hydrochloride tablets Picture of xanax pills Free shipping cheap phentermine Buying phentermine without prescription Safety of phentermine Pyridium Generic viagra cialis Cialis generic india Pink oval pill 17 xanax identification Buy free phentermine shipping Best price for generic viagra Information about street drugs or xanax bars Ordering viagra Snorting phentermine Hydrocodone overdose Lithium Amiodarone Get online viagra Order viagra prescription Order xanax paying cod Cheap phentermine free shipping Imiquimod Tramadol next day Linkdomain buy online viagra info domain buy onlin Pfizer viagra sperm Vidarabine Cheapest viagra price Prevacid Viagra cialis levitra comparison Dutasteride Lisinopril Thiotepa Female spray viagra Black market phentermine Betamethasone Cialis forums What does xanax look like Loss phentermine story success weight Order xanax overnight Viagra alternative uk Diet online phentermine pill Order xanax cod Mecamylamine Eulexin Cheap hydrocodone Buy cheapest viagra Viagra xenical Phentermine with no prior prescription Xanax in urine Macrodantin Cheap phentermine with online consultation Epivir Buy phentermine epharmacist Ditropan Woman use viagra Cialis erectile dysfunction Xanax withdrawl message boards Viagra online store Atorvastatin Generic ambien Is phentermine addictive Next day delivery on phentermine Buy online viagra Ethanol Natural phentermine Avandamet Xanax long term use Diet page phentermine pill yellow 5 cheap Cheapest secure delivery cialis uk Information medical phentermine Cialis experience Phentermine no perscription Compare ionamin phentermine Viagra cialis levivia dose comparison Noroxin Effects of viagra on women Buy cheap cialis Viagra shelf life Hydroxyurea Phentermine discount no prescription Buy cheap online viagra Dog xanax Online cialis Viagra class action Viagra price Phentermine without prescription and energy pill Hydrocodone cod only Nicoumalone Cheapest viagra Cheap ambien Vicodin without prescription Phentermine prescription online Phentermine snorting Mirtazapine Quazepam Isradipine Buy generic viagra online Xanax look alike Moxifloxacin Viagra experiences Piroxicam Nicorette Free try viagra Sotalol Cash on delivery shipping of phentermine How do i stop taking phentermine Xanax prescriptions Cheapest phentermine 90 day order Niacinamide Phentermine weight loss Phentermine

“He belongs in a higher league.” – Pete Rose on Brooks Robinson

The start of summer brings the best high school baseball players out in droves. There are literally hundreds of tournaments nationwide showcasing the top teenage talent our nation has to offer. The little patch of dirt I call home is no different. For roughly 20 years the Twin Lakes Classic brought some of the best American Legion teams to Mountain Home, Arkansas. In 2006, it was no different, except for a name change. Our tournament had the honor of becoming the Brooks Robinson Classic that year.

So, when the 3rd Annual Brooks Robinson Classic came to a close a week ago, I thought it would be nice to check in with the 16-time Gold Glove winning Hall of Famer to get his thoughts on the tournament, the state of the Major League game, and anything else that strikes his fancy.

Thomas Wayne: Thanks for taking the time to talk with me Mr. Robinson, I know you are a busy man, so let’s get started. Do you get the chance to get out to tournaments like the Brooks Robinson Classic, that showcase dozens of great American Legion and High School baseball players nationwide?

Brooks Robinson: I haven’t been to many tournaments the last three or four years. I am trying to slow down a bit. I used to be at the Brooks Robinson Classic every year but haven’t been in town the past couple years. We usually don’t get a date until after my schedule is already set. I do go to the press conference every year where they announce the teams. I enjoy meeting the players and their families.

TW: What is your take on the nationwide trend to start removing aluminum bats out of the hands of amateur players and move them back towards using traditional bats?

BR: I don’t think it is ever going to happen where you would not have aluminum bats. Some Amateur and Little League teams will always have aluminum bats. I do believe some college teams will go back to wooden bats.

TW: Do you still follow the Orioles organization closely or do you have another team that follow on a regular basis?

BR: Yes, I follow the Orioles closely. Andy MacPhail, the new General Manager, is a friend of mine. Don’t think he would come to this organization unless he had total control. I also follow the four minor leagues teams that I am part owner of: The York Revolution, Southern Maryland Blue Crabs, Lancaster Barnstormers and Camden Riversharks. I have been to the Opening Day this year for three of the teams. I go to several games. I will be at the York Revolution game on July 1st. I really enjoy watching minor league baseball.

TW: What are your thoughts on the hot topics of late in baseball, namely the use of instant replay for home runs and the epidemic of maple bats exploding into dozens of dangerous splinters during games?

BR: I am not in favor of instant replay. One of the main criticisms people have of baseball games is that they are too long. The length of the game doesn’t bother me but it bothers a lot of other people. Instant replay would only add time to the game. Umpires have been involved in baseball games for over 100 years and they do an excellent job. Every once in a while they get one wrong, but it doesn’t mean we should go to Instant Replay. I do think baseball should explore the maple bat problem because they are exploding and it does make it dangerous. They seem to break more easily.

TW: One quick final question. Is there anyone in particular playing today that when you watch him play you think “that guy reminds me of me”?

BR: I really like Mike Lowell, the third baseman for the Red Sox. I think he is really exciting to watch.

As a result of our article on Tom Paciorek, we had the good fortune of connecting with one of his teammates, Eddie Kasko. Primarily a shortstop and third baseman, Kasko hit .264 in 1,077 games for the St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds, Houston Colt .45’s and the Boston Red Sox between 1957 and 1966. He managed the Red Sox for four years (1970-1973), compiling a 345-293 record, good for a .539 winning percentage.

Kasko was kind enough to answer some questions for us, and here goes:

Dugout Central: You played in 1,077 games.  What was your best one?

Eddie Kasko: I really can’t think of a “best” game, but one of the most memorable games was the opening game of the ‘61 Series in Yankee Stadium.  I was the 2nd hitter. I remember kneeling in the “on deck” circle, looking around at 67,000 people and thinking to myself, “What the hell am I doing here”.  It was positively overwhelming.

DC: What was your favorite place to play?

EK: I enjoyed all the cities I played in but probably enjoyed Boston the most.  I guess it had a lot to do with being there the longest (30 years) and serving in just about every capacity.  Player, minor league manager, big league manager, major league scout, scouting director, and lastly vice-president director of player personnel.  Retired in 1995.

DC: What is your favorite baseball memory?

EK: I’m not a great one for memories, but the one that has stuck with me is walking out of the clubhouse in St. Louis on opening day - looking around old Busch Stadium and realizing I was in the big leagues.  Also looking at an upper deck.  First time playing in a stadium with an upper deck.

DC: You played with Stan Musial, Frank Robinson, Pete Rose, Joe Morgan, Nellie Fox and Carl Yastrzemski. Who was the best, and why?

EK: Best player I ever played with is Frank Robinson, with Yaz a very close 2nd.  Watching them on an everyday basis for five years, you see the competitive makeup and the ability to rise to any occasion.  Leaders by example!

DC: Of all your teammates, who was the most underappreciated by the public?

EK: Probably Robinson, mainly because fans got the impression he was mad at the world — Not true.

DC: Andy good Joe Nuxhall stories?

EK: Joe pitched the first game of a Sunday doubleheader in 90 degree heat. Pitched a great game, going 9 innings (a rarity today).  Nuxhall would lose 15 to 20 pounds whenever he pitched in heat.  After the game, he looked like death warmed over, but as he passed Fred Hutchinson, our manager he said, “I’m available for the 2nd game if you need me”.  Hutch gave him that little smirk and said, “I’m going in to call the rescue squad now”.  But the thing is, Nuxhall probably meant it.

DC: You played one season with Tony C.  What could have been, in your opinion?

EK: Tony C’s beaning was a crying shame.  He would never have left Boston if it didn’t happen.  An immensely popular player in New England and a good hitter with no fear.  Probably his downfall.  Always up on the plate and dared you to throw inside.  He had the perfect stroke for Fenway Park.  Without the beaning, I have no doubt he was a 500 HR hitter.  You have to remember he hit 25 when he was 19!!

Nobody in San Francisco knows what to do with Barry Zito.

Armchair managers are pacing living room dugouts, scratching their heads in search of a solution. Well, Rick Ankiel of the Cardinals turned himself from a strike-less starting pitcher into a slugging center fielder, didn’t he? And the Giants can definitely use a centerfielder. But that won’t work. Barry Zito can’t hit a lick.

Bruce Jenkins of the Chronicle wants to send the flummoxed Zito to Class A Augusta, Georgia with Rick Peterson to learn to pitch again. He better send Sigmund Freud too.

So far, nobody has suggested Tommy John surgery, or even more scandalous methods – at least publically – to return a little pop to his arm.

Nothing seems to have much promise as the losses pile up in 2008 for the 2-11 former Cy Young winner.

But, wait. Sidney Ponson is about to join the Yankees rotation! If the Yankees injury-strapped staff is this desperate for help, could there be a future in the Bronx after all for a cut-rate Barry Zito?

The Yankees passed on the very expensive free-agent lefty in 2006, and his next two seasons seem to have vindicated that decision.

Then last Wednesday the Yankees signed Ponson – owner of a lifetime 86-102 W/L record and a  4.90 ERA – to a minor league contract. Ponson threw a credible four innings for Scranton on Saturday, and is likely to start against the Mets on Friday.

The Yankees, saddled with injuries to three starters, including their ace Chien-Ming Wang, are desperate for pitchers who can go deep into a game.

Ponson has been a Yankee before. In 2006, he made three starts for the Bombers, compiling a 10.47 ERA in 16 innings before being released. Before signing on with the Yankees last week, he was 3-1 overall for Texas in 9 starts, with a 3.88 ERA. However, just before being unceremoniously dumped by the Rangers, he had given up 11 earned runs and 29 hits in his last 16 innings.

Very Zito-like recent numbers. Except, of course, for the $126M.

While the Giants were rushing to sell the farm and crown the new Barry as their face-of-the-franchise player after the 2006 season, the Yankees and others were more cautiously looking at what he had done on the mound.

They knew that Zito had been masquerading as Oakland’s stopper ever since Billy Beane had shipped fellow Musketeers Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder to the NL before the 2005 season. To a casual observer – and, it seems, to the Giants front office - Zito looked credible enough. Following Zito’s dominant 24-7 Cy Young campaign in 2002, the pensive southpaw compiled a 55-46 won-lost record over his remaining four seasons with the A’s, an apparently respectable .546 winning percentage.

But the Yankees knew that the A’s as a team were playing at a .567 clip over the same period, winning 368 times and losing only 280. What this meant was that on average Oakland was better off on the days that Zito was NOT pitching.

The Yankees were not going to pay $126M for a number three or four starter with an 86 MPH fastball that hitters were sitting on.

Apparently, however, the Giants didn’t have a radar gun. Or a television. It was as if they were signing Zito sight unseen.

However, the irony is that while Zito could never be a winning pitcher with this anemic Giants club, there is reason to believe that he very well could be a winner in the Bronx right now, especially if the Yankees are coming out of their hitting doldrums, as it appears they are.

In 2007 and 2008, during Zito’s tenure in SF, the Giants have scored about 4.2 runs per game. A look at Barry Zito’s ERA stats, 4.53 in 2007 (11-13 W/L) and 6.32 thus far in 2008, tells us what we need to know about his lack of success in the NL.

The Yankees scored about six runs a game in 2007. I’m guessing that Zito, who, again, won 11 games for a team that scored nearly two runs a game less than the Bombers, would have won 15-17 games if he signed that more modest Yankee contract ($75M-$80M) back in the winter of 2006 and had been in pinstripes last summer.

There may be a solution, then, to the Giants’ quandary. Make a deal. Split the remainder of the $126M obligation with the Yankees. Go out and use that money to buy some infield prospects to go with Lincecum and Cain.

Fans may forget that Zito is only 30 years old. He is a hard worker and a student of pitching. I think with Zito’s durability (He went more than six seasons without missing a start), the pitcher-friendly dimensions for southpaws in Yankee Stadium, and the confidence of having Yankee hitters who can rake behind him, Zito can return to being a productive major league hurler. 

Rick Kaplan grew up in the Bronx and the Hudson Valley in New York and naturally was a Yankees loyalist. He went to school at the University of Buffalo and drove a taxi in NYC for three years before rolling out to the Left Coast and becoming an A’s fanatic. His writing has been evolving over thirty years and has included everything from short stories and a baseball-themed (and unpublished) X-Files episode to lesson plans and grocery lists.

Let’s Lend A Helping Hand

“The more I help others succeed, the more I succeed.” – Ray Kroc

The massive flooding that has occurred in parts of Iowa, Illinois and Missouri has devastated homes, crops and the personal property of thousands of individuals and families, leaving some with little more than the clothes on their backs.

One such individual is Art Pennington.

Pennington, an 85-year-old former Negro League All-Star, lost his home in Cedar Rapids to the swell of flooding that has swept that part of the country. The home that Pennington had lived in since 1985 was, in all actuality, a small museum devoted to the great men who played black baseball in the 1940’s and 1950’s. Pennington said he used to have people just stop by out of the blue and ask to look at all of the memorabilia; asking to look at the history.

All of that is now gone.

Pennington was away with a friend when the flood waters destroyed his home and what took him decades to collect. He is now virtually penniless.

A Pay Pal fund has been set up at Pennington’s website:

http://www.myspace.com/artpenningtonnegroleagueallstar194062

Do YOURSELF a favor; drop by that site and take a little time to read about a great former baseball man. Drop by and find out about another fantastic ballplayer that never had the chance to play in the big leagues.

Drop by and send him an email letting him know you are all pulling for him.

But most importantly, drop by and click on the Pay Pal button and donate a little something to help this man out. Donate whatever you can, whether it is a $1 or $5. Tell as many baseball minded friends as you possibly can. I’m going to put my money where my mouth is right now and make a $25 donation. Let’s get the word out and do as much as we can to get this man back on his feet.

Good luck to you, Mr. Pennington. The writers and readers of Dugout Central are pulling for you and can’t wait until you are once again “safe at home”.

Read more about Pennington at http://www.gazetteonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080621/SPORTS/66002115

In the wonderful world of interleague play we are constantly pressed to find connections between the teams that are facing off against one another. It’s not sufficient to say that the interleague contests are just being played in National League parks to raise the ire of those, like Hank Steinbrenner, who feel that the senior circuit is mired in the 19th century. And it’s not enough for those of us who feel that interdivisional play is more exciting and more impactful on postseason races. It just seems that once we get past the unnatural “natural” rivalries we must develop justifying labels for these games that are being played. This week it seems that the games have been scheduled to specifically meet the needs of newstalgists like yours truly.

1954 Revisited

For example, last night, for the first time since the 1954 World Series, the Giants played an official game in Cleveland. This is the San Francisco Giants versus the New York variety and this is Progressive Field instead of Municipal Stadium. This was game 77 for each of these clubs as opposed to Game 4 of the Series, and last night there were 29,024 fans at Progressive Field compared to 78,102 at Municipal Stadium. Other than that it was really very dissimilar.

Quickly reminding you the Indians had won a then record 111 games (in just a 154 game schedule) and had 23-game winners Early Wynn and Bob Lemon on the mound. The Giants had Willie Mays and Dusty Rhodes. In the four game Giants sweep, Rhodes had the Giants’ only two home runs and seven of the team’s 20 RBIs. However, the Series will live forever because of the web gem of the Say Hey Kid to rob Vic Wertz deep in center field at the Polo Grounds.

Johnny Antonelli picked up the save for the Giants in Game 4 (according to “Walkoffs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so grand) Finales,” Antonelli is the last player to play for the New York and San Francisco Giants and the Boston and Milwaukee Braves), and last night Brian Wilson picked up the save in the Giants 3-2 win (not the Beach Boys’ Brian Wilson).

1959 Revisited

The White Sox and Dodgers met last night for the third time ever during the regular season and second time in Los Angeles. That made me the only person who cares that the White Sox and Dodgers played in the 1959 World Series, won by Los Angeles in six games. The Sox swept a three games series at U.S. Cellular Field in June of 2005, and took two of three games at Dodger Stadium in June of 2003. But in 1959, the Dodgers were the victors in the first Fall Classic played on the West Coast. The Dodgers defeated the White Sox in six games, becoming the first team to win a championship after finishing in seventh place the previous season.

With two victories and two saves, Dodger reliever Larry Sherry earned Series MVP honors and reserve outfielder Chuck Essegian became the first player in World Series history to hit two pinch-hit home runs. All three games at the L.A. Coliseum drew more than 92,000 fans and remain the three most attended postseason games in MLB history. Last night at Dodger Stadium, 43,900 fans saw the White Sox top the Dodgers, 6-1. The fast working Mark Buehrle made this one a rapid affair. The game took just 2 hours, 5 minutes, which meant that for a number of the late arriving, early departing Dodger fans, they saw about three batters.

1960 Revisited

In the first six games of the 1960 World Series, the Yankees outscored the Pittsburgh Pirates 46-17 and out-hit them 78-42. But those numbers are as meaningful as the first 46 minutes of an NBA game. What really counts is who wins four games. And everybody knows it was the first ever Game 7 walkoff homer, and it was hit by Bill Mazeroski over the left field ivy covered wall of Forbes Field as Yankees left fielder Yogi Berra looked up helplessly and the Pirates defeated the Yankees.

Last night, Hall of Famer Mazeroski threw out the ceremonial first pitch in the first game these two teams have played in Pittsburgh in 48 years. In 1960, the Pirates scored six runs in the final two innings of Game 7 to win 10-9. They continued their hot-hitting last night, defeating the Yanks, 12-5. The crowd of 38,867 was the third-largest since PNC Park opened in 2001. PNC has a capacity of 38,365. In 1960, the Pirates drew 36,683 to Forbes Field which had a capacity of 35,000.

2006, 1968 & 1934 Revisited

Mickey Lolich last night threw a ceremonial first pitch to Bill Freehan, as Detroit honored the Tigers’ 1968 championship team that beat St. Louis. The two teams were meeting for their seventh interleague series, their fifth at Detroit. The Cardinals were 6-14 all-time against the Tigers, and Detroit had swept the Cardinals in their past two interleague series (2007 & 2006). The Cardinals last regular season win over Detroit came on July 14, 2001, but that all ended last night as Kenny Rogers faced the St. Louis Cardinals last night for the first time since he beat them in Game Two of the World Series on October 22, 2006. Rogers that night blanked the Cardinals on two hits over eight innings of work, fanning five batters as the Tigers posted a 3-1 win. The Cardinals won the 2006 Series in five games. The Tigers won the Series in 1968 in seven games and in 1934, the Cards won in seven.

Last night, Rogers (5-5) gave up five runs in 5 1/3 innings, giving up one more earned run than he had in his previous five starts as the Cards topped the Tigers 8-4. The game drew 44,446 fans, the third-largest crowd in Comerica Park history. St. Louis won in Detroit during the regular season for the first time since July 14, 2001. The Cardinals were swept by the Tigers in the previous two interleague matchups.

Well, that’s the thrill this week in interleague play. Chris Jenkins of the San Diego Union-Tribune blogged about listening to Joe Torre talk about interleague play. “As far as appeal,” Torre said, “I think interleague play lost a lot after the 2000 World Series.” Torre added that his greatest concern was the inherent unfairness of interleague play, the competitive imbalance created when one division draws a stronger or weaker division in the other league. Plus, clubs in the same division aren’t even playing the same clubs on the interleague schedule, tilting the playing field further.

I’m with you Joe. The other issue is when teams like Colorado and Kansas City play each other, the baseball fan suicide hotline is always busy.

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide. Autographed first editions are available by contacting, Bill@billy-ball.com or order directly from Acta Sports, http://www.actasports.com/detail.html?&id=3427 or from your favorite bookstore.

Soon it will be the time of the year when we talk about the trading deadline. Who will get what by July 31? Last year the big prize was Eric Gagne, and he turned out to be the biggest bust of the year. But at least, if you’re a Red Sox fan, Boston got a draft pick for him, and they did win the World Series. So things worked out.

Unfortunately, Boston gave away David Murphy in the Gagne deal, and the 26-year-outfielder already has 10 home runs and 51 RBIs this year.

When do you know when the young talent is better than the established players? Is Brandon Moss going to be a star? Should Jed Lowrie be playing instead of Julio Lugo?

How great does a young pitcher need to be before they will let him pitch in Boston? Do you think Michael Bowden has stuff that’s good enough now? He has 8 walks and 48 strikeouts in his last 50 innings. His WHIP is 0.87 for the year. Maybe he is better than Justin Masterson.

Clay Buchholz should also be in the Boston rotation now. He has 14 K’s and 2 walks and 0 runs in his last two starts. Boston should put Buchholz back in the major league rotation and put Masterson into the pen – into the role that Gagne was supposed to fill last year.

The other young gun with MLB talent is Daniel Bard. Bard has 64 K’s and 11 walks on the year, and batters are hitting .152 off of him. He hasn’t given up a run in his last four appearances, totaling 7.2 innings.

Why should Boston bring back an old, fat pitcher with a weak back in Colon when they have young guns that all have more talent now?

Soon the 3 B’s will be shipping up to Boston.

Buchholz, Bowden, and Bard, on the Sox staff, sooner than you think.

Yankees Should Trade for Fielder

While hitting stalwarts Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Hideki Matsui, Jorge Posada and Johnny Damon are all at least signed through next season, two current Yankees, Bobby Abreu and Jason Giambi, can be free agents. Both players produce high OBP’s, score a good amount of runs and are instrumental for a deep lineup that prides itself on working the count and the pitcher. Losing both players from the 2009 lineup would take away those high OBP’s and considerably shorten the lineup. If both players were to leave, where would the Yankees turn to fill those spots?

The easy one first. The Yankees need to sign Bobby Abreu for two more years. Abreu should not cost anywhere near the $16M per season he is earning now. Two years are needed because that is the time frame for top prospect Austin Jackson, currently at AA Trenton, to be ready for the Bronx. Abreu is in a little slump right now, hitting only .191 over his last 12 games with a homer and 5 RBI’s, but he is a guaranteed run producer who plays every day –averaging 157 games played per season during his 10 full years in the majors. What better way to get more for your money than to extend Abreu now, while the fire is not hot? At the end of the new two-year deal, Abreu will be 37 and his Bronx tenure will end.

Now for the tough decision.

Many times earlier this season, Yankee fans wanted Jason Giambi outright released from the New York Yankees. After the game on May 4th, Giambi’s average was at .150 and his OPS was a Mark Belanger-like .692 (Belanger’s 1971 OPS was .685 – his career best). However, since Alex Rodriguez returned from his quad strain on May 20th, Giambi has produced as his $21 million 2008 paycheck should dictate. Over his last 28 games, Giambi has hit .361 (35 for 97) with 7 doubles, 9 homers and 21 RBI’s, a .456 OBP and a remarkable 1.167 OPS. His defense at first base, though not spectacular, has been steady, and Yankee fans can put up with a misplay of two if the power numbers continue.

Now, only a month and a half after wanting Giambi’s release, the fickle Yankee fans want to know if their first base power threat (and free agent to be) is going to return next season. The Yankees have a $22M option on Giambi for next season or a $5M buyout. The buyout is the most assured scenario. If Giambi continues to hit the rest of the season, there is talk of the Yankees buying out Jason’s contract and then trying to resign him for a one year deal in the neighborhood of another $5 million.

While that idea is plausible, and if Giambi continues to hit, there will be other teams wanting his services – many of whom are desperate enough to offer more than a one-year deal to a 38-year-old slugger with a knack for getting on base. Seattle, Toronto and Cleveland have a big need for a slugging first base/DH type, as does Baltimore. GM’s such as Theo Epstein of Boston and Billy Beane of the Oakland A’s (Jason’s former team) would love to have Giambi’s high OBP in their lineups. Atlanta might lose free agent to be Mark Teixeira and would need a first baseman. The Yankees might then be tempted to compete for Giambi’s services for next season – and that shouldn’t be done.

Hank Steinbrenner should write the buyout check and say, “Good luck Jason and thanks for taking our money for the last seven years. “

Where do the Yankees then go for a first baseman, preferably one young enough to have around for a few years. Next season ARod will be 33, Hideki Matsui, Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon all will be 35 and Jorge Posada 37. The core of the 2009 projected lineup is not far away from their first Yankee Oldtimers day.

The decision is tough because, despite the trend to go for youth in the starting rotation, the Yankee position players are in a win now mode. Also, while center field is the darling position of the Yankee franchise with heroes (and home grown talent) Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle, Bobby Murcer and Bernie Williams patrolling there in the past, first base is also an honor position for the Pinstripers, highlighted by Lou Gehrig, Don Mattingly and Tino Martinez.

Going into next season, there are 15 teams with productive first basemen, and all will be 33-years-old and under, with most in their 20’s. Of those 15 only three, Derrek Lee of the Chicago Cubs, Adrian Gonzalez of the San Diego Padres and Mike Jacobs of the Florida Marlins, were not brought up through their team’s farm system, but, all three were traded for early in their careers.

Most teams have filled first base from within their own systems, going for youth over free agency. Those teams that went the free agent or aging veteran route for their first basemen (Giambi, Richie Sexson, Carlos Delgado) have largely been overpaying for lackluster performance.

Can the Yankees dig into their farm system for their 2009 first baseman? Maybe. At Triple AAA Scranton, Juan Miranda is a 25-year-old slugging former Cuban defector who is really punishing the ball over the last several weeks (currently .313 BA and .873 OPS) and was a top prospect in the Arizona Fall League last winter. But, Miranda does not hit lefties very well (7 for 40, no HR’s, and 10 K’s this season). Can the lefty problem be solved by platooning with Shelley Duncan? Highly unlikely, since the Yankees didn’t even trust Duncan this season against many lefty starters.

The Yankees will have to go outside of the organization to get their first baseman. All the speculation is to be on signing free agent Mark Teixeira of the Braves, but Tex will cost almost $200M. While the Yankees will have almost $80M off the books next year with the departures of Giambi, Carl Pavano, Kyle Farnsworth, LaTroy Hawkins, Mike Mussina and probably Andy Pettitte, and they could “afford” Teixeira, that is too much for my taste. The money can be better spent elsewhere. Meanwhile, Teixeira didn’t hurt his money chances in the open market with his three-home run day Sunday.

The Yankees are better off trying to trade for their first baseman, and their target should be Milwaukee’s Prince Fielder. The Brewers would be interested in trading Fielder for several reasons:

1. They lack starting pitching, and their ace, Ben Sheets, can be a free agent after this season. If the Brewers resign Sheets, it will cost at least $80M. If they don’t sign Sheets, they don’t have any young starting pitchers coming up to replace him.

2. Too many of the Brewers’ young players, such as Richie Weeks, Corey Hart, Yovani Gallardo and JJ Hardy, will need to be re-signed for more money, and Milwaukee just gave Ryan Braun $45M.

3. Milwaukee has a tremendous amount of hitting talent in Double AA, and Matt LaPorta, last year’s first round pick, can play first base. LaPorta has 19 homers with an OPS over 1.000 this year.

4. At the beginning of 2008, the Brewers renewed Fielder to a one-year deal for $670,000 - and Fielder wasn’t too happy about it.

Next year Fielder is arbitration eligible and will likely make Ryan Howard arbitration money – about $10M. The Brewers can rid themselves of the money headache and boost their starting pitching depth by dealing Fielder to the Yankees for a pitching package of four including Ian Kennedy (or Phil Hughes), Jeffrey Marquez, Dan McCutchen and Mark Melancon – projected to be Mariano Rivera’s successor at closer.

While Fielder is slightly on the heavy side, he is still young enough to get in better shape (remember Joe Girardi’s running regimen?). And with a new 6-year/$80M contract, he’d be only 30 at the end of the deal – well before any weight issues should start to erode his production. Fielder would bring a needed power threat to the Bronx and has that pedigree (and talent) which will win over New York. That new contract will save the Yankees about $100M in the process over singing Teixeira.

Brian Cashman should forget about Teixeira. Let Giambi go back to Oakland and trade for the first baseman of the present and future – Prince Fielder.

It seems unlikely that Bobby Abreu will make the move to New Yankee Stadium with the rest of the team next year. Abreu is still an above average right fielder, but he’ll turn 35 years old before the start of next season, so offering him a contract longer than a year or two wouldn’t seem to be a smart use of money. The problem is that if Abreu isn’t playing right field, who can the Yankees replace him with?

First, let’s explore the possibility the Yankees will resign Abreu. A quick check of www.baseball-reference.com finds that the most statistically similar player to Abreu, through age 33, is none other than Bernie Williams. Leaving aside the spooky coincidence, here are the numbers:

Now those are similar players. Abreu has a bit more speed and has drawn more walks, but other than that they’re pretty much twins. Both players have been very good for a long time, but their similarity is cause for concern among those who would like to see Abreu play a few more years for the Yankees. Here are Williams’ slash stats in his age 34-37 seasons.

• 34: .263/.367/.411
• 35: .262/.360/.435
• 36: .249/.321/.367
• 37: .281/.332/.436

Through Monday, Abreu’s line was .270/.333/.432, not far from Williams’ age 34 numbers. There isn’t any guarantee that Abreu will age the same way Williams did, but the possibility should certainly give the Yankees pause. With the possible exception of an incentive laden one or two-year deal, which Abreu is unlikely to accept, it just isn’t a smart move to resign Abreu.

The most obvious candidate to replace Abreu is Melky Cabrera. There are two problems with this solution. The first is that Cabrera can expect to get plenty of playing time with Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui starting in the outfield. Damon will be 35 in November and Matsui just turned 34. Their ages and recent injury history suggest that counting on them for more than 130 games next year is probably wishful thinking. The second is Cabrera himself. In just about two seasons worth of at bats he’s proven to be a .270 hitter with little power. He’s still very young and the kind of inconsistent playing time he’s gotten certainly makes it difficult to get in a groove, but he’s going to have to improve to be an adequate replacement in right.

How about one of the youngsters from the farm system Brian Cashman has worked so hard to rebuild? None of the outfielders in Scranton-Wilkes Barre is really a prospect, so we have to look a bit deeper in the system to find a replacement. Jose Tabata was one of the top young prospects in the game entering the year, but he has taken a step backwards in AA; through 70 games he’s hitting .231/.308/.285. He’s still only 19 years old so it’s far too early to write him off, but the chances that he’s going to step into the major league lineup next year are essentially zero.

Austin Jackson, on the other hand, is a 21-year-old center fielder who is putting together a nice year so far. He’s hitting over .280 with 20 doubles and 7 home runs in Trenton, so he’s showing some power potential. The question the Yankees will have to answer is whether he can use a full year in AAA to prepare him for big league pitching. My guess is the answer to that question is “yes”.

Free Agents? The choices in the outfield, assuming Carl Crawford and Vlad Guerrero have their options picked up, aren’t very good. Pat Burrell is the class of the group, but he’s about to turn 32 and will undoubtedly command big dollars over five to seven years. The Yankees can certainly afford to make the investment, but their pitching staff may walk out en masse rather than pitch in front of an outfield of Damon, Matsui and Burrell. Beyond “Pat the Bat” are a bunch of names like Garrett Anderson, Emil Brown and Jacque Jones.

The one name on the free agent list that is most intriguing, and most familiar to Yankees fans, is Juan Rivera. Rivera has never managed to secure a full time job, but his 162-game averages are .287/.336/.464 with 20 HR. He hit .310 with 23 HR in 448 at bats two years ago for the Angels, but then broke his leg in winter ball and missed almost all of last year. He’s struggled at the plate this year in very limited playing time, but it’s hard to believe he’s completely forgotten how to hit a baseball. Yes, he’s 30 years old, but that may actually turn out to be a good thing for the Yankees. I have to believe he’d love to come back to the Bronx and be willing to sign a two or three-year contract at a relatively low dollar figure. He’ll either prove to be an asset who can keep the seat warm until one of the younger players matures or he won’t and the cost of eating his contract will be small. Absent a trade for an established player, I can’t think of a better solution.

“Batting sixth and playing right field, Juan Rivera.” It rolls off the tongue, and I’m sure it will sound good in the new Yankee Stadium.

Tuesday night I received the last part of my Father’s Day present as Mrs. Ball, Jen and I went to Pawtucket to see the Pawtucket Red Sox beat the Richmond Braves 7-6 in 10 innings at McCoy Stadium. Now I love minor league baseball and a favorite family outing for us is going to visit the Rox in Brockton, MA and enjoy the confines of Campanelli Stadium and watch an independent CanAm League game. If I were the marketing folks in Pawtucket (full disclosure, I am one of the marketing folks for Brockton), I would head to Brockton at the first opportunity because it was dead in Pawtucket last night.

McCoy has a pretty field, with lots of foul territory, which is one of its chief liabilities – the fans are too far from the action. Then again, the PawSox do nothing to take advantage of that space to make it a fun, family friendly experience. Other than the mascot power shooting soft baseballs into the stands once, there were absolutely no between innings experiences. No kids on the field racing or wearing costumes or involved in guessing games. Nothing, nada, zilch.

Perhaps that’s why it was morgue-like for most of the game. I am not a yeller at ballgames. I prefer to watch, keep score, eat my peanuts and talk to the people around me. But last night, Jen and I were out there loud trying to encourage the Sox. I was trying to create nicknames. I tried “Let’s go PawSox” chants, but the 4,600 fans simply couldn’t be bothered. They were too busy living up to a Quohogian stereotype.

Even when the music was played to rouse the crowd, it was done in a half-hearted way. It seemed that the music would stop too soon – as if the ownership had to pay more if they played it another 10 seconds.

As for the game itself, it was exciting enough to be enjoyed by the three of us. The Red Sox grabbed a 2-0 lead in the 1st on a two-run single by catcher George Kottaras. The Braves tied the game in the 2nd off starting pitcher Charlie Zink, with the damaging blow being an error by second baseman Joe Thurman who had a horrible night. He looks closer to being headed to Portland than to Boston. In the 3rd, the very impressive Jeff Bailey doubled a run home and the skilled Jed Lowrie knocked one in with a single to give Pawtucket a 4-2 lead. Richmond again tied the game in the 6th on back-to-back home runs by Scott Thorman and Jason Perry.

Thorman is a major threat at the plate and I mean “major” as in “Major League.” In the bottom of the inning the Red Sox tied it on another RBI double by Bailey. Richmond rallied for a third time in the 7th to tie the game at five on a Thorman sacrifice fly. Following the very first chant in the park, Thorman smashed his second home run of the game to give the Braves their first lead, 6-5, in the 10th (maybe that’s why they don’t yell).

Then came the bottom of the 10th with Pawtucket trailing by a run and Richmond brought in a pitcher that brought a smile to my face. If I were a betting man, I would have placed money on the Sox at that point. Does the name Jorge Julio strike a familiar note?

I have now seen this guy (referred to by a Braves blogger as Jorge “Gasoline Soaked Matchbook” Julio) blow saves in the American, National and International Leagues. The Braves signed Julio about 10 days ago as backup for Rafael Soriano. Julio, 29, had a 5.60 ERA in 15 appearances for Cleveland before he was released at the end of May. He has a 13-33 career record and a 4.40 ERA with 99 saves in 131 opportunities (.755 save fulfillment percentage), including 83 saves in a three-season span with Baltimore in 2002-04. If the Braves call him to the majors, they would be his sixth major league team in the past three seasons.

Leading off, DH Chris Carter (0-5 with 2 Ks) smashed a shot to second, deftly fielded by Derrick Arnold. Now with one out, third baseman Keith Ginter (1-4, double and a walk) lined out very deep to center. Two outs, no one on base – that’s Julio time. George Kottaras looped a single to left and left fielder Bryan Pritz dropped another to center. The next batter, pinch-hitter Dusty Brown, was hit by a pitch to load the bases.

After a coaching visit to the mound (Oh, Jorge, you make me laugh) Jonathan Van Every grounded a ball up the middle that Arnold fielded then dropped and the game was tied. Then all I had to do was yell to Jeff Bailey to be patient and on a 3-2 count Julio walked Bailey to bring in the winning run on a walkoff walk.

Charlie Zink struck out a career-high 10 batters, working 8 and a third for Pawtucket. The win went to Jon Switzer (3-0). The PawSox are 48-31 and a perfect 6-0 in extra inning games in 2008.

We had a very good evening and for us there were many laughs, in spite of the moribund atmosphere. Baseball is enjoyable at every level and this summer you should make it a priority to go to a minor league game. Our next one will be in Brockton, and I hope to see you there.

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide. Autographed first editions are available by contacting, Bill@billy-ball.com or order directly from Acta Sports, http://www.actasports.com/detail.html?&id=3427 or from your favorite bookstore.

College players or high school players – who would you prefer to draft if you were a GM? – Jim Hall

If I’m looking for a hitter, I’d prefer a college kid.

If I’m looking for a pitcher, there is no doubt – I’m taking a high school kid. Why? Because I can have him developed by professionals using my organization’s coaches and a system designed to maximize pitching ability and minimize risk of injury.

Speaking in general terms, college coaching for pitchers is really lacking. A lot of coaches are killing their pitchers, and by the time the pitchers get to the pros, they’re breaking down or just about to break down.

A big problem for college coaching is that there is no unified research and development initiative like other sports (USA Hockey and even Australian Rules Football) have. There are no standards, and you have hundreds of coaches teaching kids to throw in hundreds of different ways. And without standards, accountability is lacking.

I’m not saying there aren’t some fine college pitching coaches. There are. But for a team to properly evaluate a college pitching prospect, they would need to evaluate the coaches, too. And that’s a lot of work, and it increases the risk of a college pitcher selection. It’s best to select an undeveloped high school pitcher and develop him yourself.

———-

Fill a need or best player available – again what would your draft philosophy be if you were a GM? – Jim Hall

Always, always, always get the best player. This isn’t the NBA or NFL where most high draft picks can step in and contribute quickly. All players selected in the MLB draft need development in the minors. Some guys may take just a year or two (though this can be too quick – see Craig Hansen and Ryan Wagner), while some guys take four, five or more years. A team’s needs when a player gets to the majors will likely be very different than what they were when they were drafted. Injuries, trades, free agent signings, players slumping, etc. all can quickly change the composition of a major league roster, and much of it is beyond the control of the team. So, go for the best player on the board, which is what Tampa did with Tim Beckham.

———-

Outside of Tampa and Florida’s success, what/who has been the biggest surprise so far this season? – Wyatt L.

I’ll reserve using the word “success” until October. Ever since I can remember (I could be wrong) they don’t hand out the World Series Trophy until the fall. The biggest surprise is the abundance of mediocre players in the majors and the lack of quality minor league players is disappointing. Development is like talking about prehistoric dinosaurs to most. The biggest surprise is the applied theory by many teams; sign him, rush him, and sell him.

———-

Sidney Ponson was actually pitching well this year before getting dumped by the Rangers for unprofessional behavior. I know he lucked out by getting picked up by the Yankees, but is this guy possibly the dumbest player ever? – Rafael P.

Obviously Sidney can still pitch a bit, but I don’t think he’s dumb at all. I mean, he’s not trying to fool anybody. Ponson is at least honest – I’ll give him that. Of course I’m not saying I agree with everything he does. I am saying that Ponson has done the same thing everywhere he’s been, and that won’t change. Want to sign him for your team? Fine. But don’t be surprised when there is an incident of unprofessional behavior. Now if Ponson was a altar boy (dressed like one, acted like one) and then decided to punch a judge, then I’d say he screwed up. But Ponson isn’t trying to deceive anyone. He is what he is. If a team doesn’t now that, it’s the team’s fault.

———-

Have a question for Pags? Email him at fans@dugoutcentral.com.

“We’ll not fade out too soon, not in this finest hour. Whistle your favorite tune, we’ll send a card and flower, saying…It’s a mistake.” - Australian Rockers MEN AT WORK

One would think that when it comes down to honoring baseball’s blue ribbon franchise – a team that hemorrhages history – during an All Star Game being held at said blue ribbon franchise’s home stadium (a stadium almost as revered as the franchise itself, a stadium that is counting down to its final historic game), it would be obvious to one and all on how that franchise and stadium should be honored.

Apparently “obvious” is a word that eludes the vocabularies of Bud Selig and the rest of the higher ups and seat polishers in the MLB All Star Game Marketing Department.

Recently Major League Baseball released all the pertinent information involving the pre-game ceremonies that will be held before the 79th Annual All Star Game on July 15th, 2008. Their big “send off” to Yankee Stadium includes celebrating the careers of over 40 Hall of Famers, including Tony Gwynn, Cal Ripken Jr., Frank Robinson, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Bob Feller and a couple dozen or so more of their immortal comrades. These Hall of Famers will be arriving at “The House that Ruth Built” by walking down a 95,000 square foot Red Carpet that starts at 40th Street and ends at Yankee Stadium. Along the parade route, MLB will have a series of eight foot tall Statue of Liberty’s, decorated to reflect Major League Baseball and its franchises, posted throughout New York City for all to see.

Color me reactionary, but is it wrong to think that a bunch of miniature Lady Liberties scattered around a Red Carpet parade featuring dozens of players who never played for the Yankees is just a mind numbingly stupid way to honor the Yankees and Yankee Stadium during its final season???

How is it possible that MLB can be so ignorant to the obvious? Is everyone in the MLB think tank void of reason or common sense? Didn’t anyone stop to think the best way to honor New York, the Yankees and Yankee Stadium would be to … I don’t know …. honor New York, the Yankees and Yankee Stadium???

From the get go the 2008 All Star Game pre-game celebration at Yankee Stadium should have been a complete no-brainer. Allow me to present the obvious.

You start by gathering as many living Yankee greats as possible; The former Yankees who were All Stars, or players who had many great individual seasons with the team, or players who had a hand in winning one or more of those 26 Championships. These are the players I would start with:

Scott Brosius, John Wetteland, Paul O’Neill, Bernie Williams, Wade Boggs, David Wells, David Cone, Doc Gooden, Don Mattingly, Dave Winfield, Rickey Henderson, Dave Righetti, Goose Gossage, Ron Guidry, Graig Nettles, Lee Mazzilli, Bucky Dent, Sparky Lyle, Reggie Jackson, Chris Chambliss, Willie Randolph, Roy White, Tommy John, Phil Niekro, Joe Pepitone, Moose Skowron, Whitey Ford, Yogi Berra and so on.

Then, you could bring out a relative or family member of deceased players to represent all the great Yankees that have passed on. Someone to represent…

Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, Roger Maris, Hank Bauer, Thurman Munson, Catfish Hunter, Phil Rizzuto, Joe DiMaggio, Bill Dickey, Lefty Grove, Herb Pennock, Tony Lazzeri, Red Ruffing, Lefty Gomez, Super Chief Allie Reynolds, Elston Howard, Billy Martin, Hoyt Waite, Casey Stengel, Joe McCarthy and Miller Huggins.

You can have the relatives of Ruth and Gehrig throw out your ceremonial first pitches. Or better yet, you have Joe Torre throw out your first pitch. You can’t go wrong either way.

That’s over 50 former Yankees. Doesn’t celebrating Yankees at Yankee Stadium, during an All Star Game during the Stadium’s last year make more sense than random ex-big leaguers, no matter who they are or what they have accomplished?

Yankee fans, and anyone watching at home, would love to see something with real meaning. Not random fancy. I love Tony Gwynn. I love Cal Ripken. But as a baseball fan I would much rather see the former Yankees light up the crowd. Who do you think would get a bigger ovation by Yankee fans; Hall of Famer Bob Feller, or 1998 World Series MVP Scott Brosius? Can you imagine the energy and the noise from the home town crowd when Don Mattingly is introduced? Or Paul O’Neill? There is very little chance of Willie McCovey getting the same kind of adoration.

Just as the fans are settling down, just as you couldn’t imagine the energy in this building getting any higher or the noise getting any louder, you hit them with the rest of the iceberg. You bring out the next best thing to Francis Albert Sinatra himself. You have the Harlem Boys Choir, decked out in Yankee pin stripes, backed by the New York Philharmonic Orchestra, sing NEW YORK, NEW YORK prior to singing our National Anthem.

Maybe I’m wrong, but THAT is the way you give the Yankees and Yankee Stadium the proper send off they and it deserve. Anything else can only be categorized as a mistake.

The 2009 All Star Game will be held in St. Louis. Let’s hope that it will feature a stunning tribute to, at the very least, Stan Musial, and possibly Bob Gibson, Ozzie Smith and a dozen or so more Cardinal immortals. This is not only what the fans of St. Louis want to see, it is what they EXPECT to see. Maybe Bud Selig and his cast of Way-Off-Base Players will figure that out before they get to Missouri next year with a bunch of miniature Gateway Arches and plans to honor Sadaharu Oh.

I was born into a baseball family. No, no, not like the Griffeys or the Boones, but a family that loved their respective teams. My dad was a Yankee fan who let me take the day off from school in 1978 for the one-game playoff series between the Red Sox and Yankees.

My maternal grandmother was a die hard Dodger fan who’d been widowed since before my birth. Other than Dodger games, I never heard Granny cuss. I swear that every time Steve Garvey came to the plate she’d swoon like Sinatra was batting.

My mom rebelled against her parents and was not a baseball fan. I will always blame her for my brother’s hatred of the game. He’s one of those year-round football guys. You know the type.

To this day, I remember hearing someone crying downstairs. It was my great aunt, a Yankee fan. She was in the arms of Granny – even at eight years old, I could tell that something was seriously wrong. Thurman Munson had died.

My baseball heretic brother and I were allowed to watch the Monday Night Baseball game where Bobby Murcer single-handedly beat the Orioles hours after giving a eulogy at his fallen friend’s funeral. Even the bro couldn’t help but to get into fist pumping mode when Murcer drove home the final two in the ninth.

My mom and dad divorced. The new man who was courting my mom lived in another state. He came to visit one weekend and brought me an entire wax box of 1981 Topps! I’d never had a whole box before. Usually I scrounged change to support my pack a day habit.

We moved to where he lived. Reds country. My stepdad had stories of Big Klu and a young Frank Robinson. He has yet to get over the Milt Pappas deal that sent Robinson to Baltimore where he won the Triple Crown.

On TV we got both the Pirates and Reds. During his rookie season, it seemed like Jose DeLeon took a no-hitter into the ninth inning every other outing. I was hooked on the 1983 Bucs. Yogi’s kid, Mad Dog, Dave Parker, and the awesomely underrated (in my mind) Marvell Wynne.

For my birthday, I was given my first computer – an Atari 400. I learned to program in BASIC very quickly, with one thing on my mind – create a text based statistical baseball game. With the help of the Baseball Encyclopedia I set off. No hard drive, I saved my work to cassette tapes. I even backed up my program that was going to change the world – before backing stuff up was hip.

That year’s Baseball Encyclopedia had a stat called HR%. So I’m thinking, why not base everything on 100% - so I did. For pitchers I based everything on nine innings. Strikeouts, hits, walks, home runs, on down the list. One of the things that kept it from being the greatest computer simulation of all time was the ratio of pitcher/hitter plays . . . I settled on 60% pitcher, 40% hitter.

Another thing that, looking back, should have bothered me but didn’t was the ratio of ground balls to fly balls. Totally random, runners never moved over on ground balls, and they always tagged and scored from third on any sac fly to the outfield.

That summer I stayed up all hours of the night to finish my favorite teams, the Pirates and the Reds. After about two weeks, they were done. I was able to play my own game. But I remained disciplined. Next up, the Yankees.

My parents would occasionally remove me from my cove and make me go places. One day I was in a hobby shop. That’s when I saw it. The game that would end up costing me millions (possibly billions) of dollars.

Avalon Hill’s Statis Pro Baseball ruined me. After examining the box for about an hour, I HAD TO HAVE IT. The game would allow me to stop my late nights of programming and just play on the board, keep real score sheets, and get to know every player from every team with my carefully devised schedule.

We had no air conditioning. My room was upstairs and about 90 degrees. I remember sweating on the board. I couldn’t quit playing. Finishing a game in a half-hour was easy. During the summer of 1984, I’d play at least 26 games a day – each team twice.

Summer was over, and going to school really cramped my obsession. I would get off the bus and immediately head upstairs to feed my habit. My desire to play Statis Pro Baseball ended about a week after Detroit wrapped up the 1984 series.

Had I never walked into that hobby store, thus ending my computer programming career, I am sure that by now I would be the CEO of EA Sports – maybe just the CFO. Either way, I’d be making some serious quid.

With George Carlin’s passing, I thought it appropriate to re-print some of his thoughts relating to our national pastime.

Baseball is different from any other sport, very different. For instance, in most sports you score points or goals; in baseball you score runs. In most sports the ball, or object, is put in play by the offensive team; in baseball the defensive team puts the ball in play, and only the defense is allowed to touch the ball. In fact, in baseball if an offensive player touches the ball intentionally, he’s out; sometimes unintentionally, he’s out.

Also: in football, basketball, soccer, volleyball, and all sports played with a ball, you score with the ball and in baseball the ball prevents you from scoring.

In most sports the team is run by a coach; in baseball the team is run by a manager. And only in baseball does the manager or coach wear the same clothing the players do. If you’d ever seen John Madden in his Oakland Raiders uniform, you’d know the reason for this custom.

Now, I’ve mentioned football. Baseball & football are the two most popular spectator sports in this country. And as such, it seems they ought to be able to tell us something about ourselves and our values.

I enjoy comparing baseball and football:

• Baseball is a nineteenth-century pastoral game.
• Football is a twentieth-century technological struggle.

• Baseball is played on a diamond, in a park. The baseball park!
• Football is played on a gridiron, in a stadium, sometimes called Soldier Field or War Memorial Stadium.

• Baseball begins in the spring, the season of new life.
• Football begins in the fall, when everything’s dying.

• In football you wear a helmet.
• In baseball you wear a cap.

• Football is concerned with downs - what down is it?
• Baseball is concerned with ups - who’s up?

• In football you receive a penalty.
• In baseball you make an error.

• In football the specialist comes in to kick.
• In baseball the specialist comes in to relieve somebody.

• Football has hitting, clipping, spearing, piling on, personal fouls, late hitting and unnecessary roughness.
• Baseball has the sacrifice.

• Football is played in any kind of weather: rain, snow, sleet, hail, fog…
• In baseball, if it rains, we don’t go out to play.

• Baseball has the seventh inning stretch.
• Football has the two minute warning.

• Baseball has no time limit: we don’t know when it’s gonna end - might have extra innings.
• Football is rigidly timed, and it will end even if we’ve got to go to sudden death.

• In baseball, during the game, in the stands, there’s kind of a picnic feeling; emotions may run high or low, but there’s not too much unpleasantness.
• In football, during the game in the stands, you can be sure that at least twenty-seven times you’re capable of taking the life of a fellow human being.

And finally, the objectives of the two games are completely different:

• In football the object is for the quarterback, also known as the field general, to be on target with his aerial assault, riddling the defense by hitting his receivers with deadly accuracy in spite of the blitz, even if he has to use shotgun. With short bullet passes and long bombs, he marches his troops into enemy territory, balancing this aerial assault with a sustained ground attack that punches holes in the forward wall of the enemy’s defensive line.
• In baseball the object is to go home! And to be safe! - I hope I’ll be safe at home!

George Carlin had a brilliant mind. I hope he’s safe at home.

———-

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide. Autographed first editions are available by contacting, Bill@billy-ball.com or order directly from Acta Sports, http://www.actasports.com/detail.html?&id=3427 or from your favorite bookstore.

For the decade of the 80’s, Dale Murphy was the face of the Atlanta Braves – and often the face of Major League Baseball. Topps often used his image on their in-store displays.

Atlanta Braves fans didn’t have much to cheer about between 1974 (Hank Aaron’s record breaking season) and 1991 (Atlanta’s first trip to the series) except for Dale Murphy. With the Braves from ’76-90, Murphy was nothing short of an outstanding ballplayer.

His stats are great but, so far, not Hall of Fame material: .265 lifetime batting average, five Golden Gloves, two National League MVP awards and seven trips to the All-Star game

Murphy played every single game of the 162-game season for four straight years. That’s 648 straight games. I know, I know, it’s not a record. Still, given that the next two years he played 160 and 159 games, it’s quite impressive.

Quite speedy for his size, Murphy patrolled a very wide centerfield, owning a cannon of an arm and earned five golden gloves in a very defensively competitive era.

But more, he didn’t drink alcohol, use tobacco products or curse. He was tall, handsome and never sported facial hair. He declined to be interviewed in the clubhouse until he was fully clothed. For crying out loud, he actually did milk commercials.

During the height of his popularity, the song Centerfield was released by John Fogerty. You hear it at almost every ball game now. In it, he says, “Rounding third and headed for home is a brown-eyed handsome man.” I may be wrong on this, but I always thought that since Murphy played centerfield at the time, maybe Fogerty was thinking of him.

So why do fans still love Murph so much? Probably because year in/year out, he busted his butt for a mediocre (at best) team and was conscious about the example he set for kids.

And as recently as the 2007 season, Murphy was on ESPN decrying Bonds alleged use of steroids. And Barry did juice. Federal grand jury transcripts have multiple people, under oath, saying so. Dale went on to say that he wasn’t trying to personally assault Barry, but it was just that professional athletes who use steroids are setting a bad example for youngsters.

To that end, Murphy has help create the iWon’tCheat! Foundation, which has as its corporate statement: The iWon’tCheat! Foundation is a solution to the illegal performance enhancing drug problem that has entered the world of sports. Studies show that over 1 million high school athletes used steroids last year.

How’s that for continuing to give back to the game?

Like Hank Aaron before him, Murphy is revered not only for his character, but also for his consistent talent despite difficult circumstances.

Here’s to you, Mr. Murphy. Thanks for being a Brave.

“A competent and self-confident person is incapable of jealousy in anything. Jealousy is invariably a symptom of neurotic insecurity.” – Robert Heinlein

Urbandictionary.com defines a “player hater” as someone who dislikes, resents or disapproves of a “player” or successful person. The term is used to criticize people who are jealous of or who don’t respect successful people. Apparently, at a bare minimum, there are 49.5 player haters in the Major Leagues.

For the June 23rd issue of Sports Illustrated 495 Major League Baseball Players were surveyed to find out who the most overrated player was in the Major Leagues. After the votes were tallied and all the counting was done, Yankee All-Star shortstop Derek Jeter was voted the most overrated player by a group of his peers.

According to SI, Jeter received 10% of the vote, with Giants lefty Barry Zito finishing second with 9%. Jeter teammate and reigning AL MVP Alex Rodriguez and Red Sox right fielder J.D. Drew tied for third with 7%. Finishing fourth were Mets third baseman David Wright and Red Sox first baseman Kevin Youkilis, tied with 4%.

The basic idea of a survey like this is that players are somehow “rated” to begin with. You can’t be overrated unless you are rated to start with. The fact that there are no actual ratings of Major League players by MLB means this survey is the worst kind of survey; it’s based on opinions that require no fact or common sense to back them up. What the survey is really asking is “who do you think is not nearly as deserving of the media love they receive nightly on Sports Center?” The fact that Sports Illustrated polls players with a question like this tells me two things: first, Sports Illustrated must be really desperate to sell a few thousand more copies the week of June 23rd, and second, there are a lot of jealous and resentful ballplayers in the Major Leagues.

Let’s take a closer look at the man who “won” the top spot in this fiasco. Derek Jeter, now in his 14th Major League season, has 2,430 career hits, and barring injury will tack on anywhere from 1,000 to 1,700 more before his career is over. He has six 200 hit seasons under his belt, and excluding the 156 hit injury shortened 2003 season, Jeter’s lowest single season hit total is 183. His career 162 game averages are as follows:

• Hits: 207
• Doubles: 34
• Home Runs: 17
• Runs Scored: 121
• Runs Batted In: 82
• Stolen Bases: 23
• Batting Average: .316
• On Base Percentage: .387

There isn’t a manager on the planet who wouldn’t love a middle infielder with those kinds of numbers year in and year out. Of course, when you produce like this man does at the plate, accolades are sure to follow. Jeter was the 1996 American League Rookie of the Year. He is an eight-time All-Star and a multiple Silver Slugger winner. He has finished in the top ten in the AL MVP voting six times, with, in my humble opinion, his first MVP award collecting dust somewhere on a shelf in Justin Morneau’s off-season home. Jeter has helped his teams to four World Championships and was the 2000 World Series MVP. And according to the Elias Sports Bureau, Jeter’s .600 winning percentage (1,140-759) is the best among all active players with a minimum 1,000 career games played. Off the field, he has national endorsement deals with Brand Jordan, Gatorade and Visa. Socially he’s been linked to dozens of movie stars and models including Jessica Biel, Scarlett Johansson and former Miss Universe Lara Dutta.

Does any of this information strike you as something that would make a man overrated?

This survey is little more than a “showing of hands” of players who simply can’t feel good about another man’s success. Look at the other players listed in the top four or five of this joke. The majority of them play in New York and Boston. What teams are discussed and loved by the media on a national level more than most other teams? That’s right, Yankees, Mets and Red Sox. If the 2008 All-Star fan balloting holds true Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Kevin Youkilis will join four other Red Sox players in the AL starting lineup on July 15th. Apparently there are quite a few players out there who feel like the big name east coast players get a wee bit too much love and attention.

Getting back to Jeter and his top ranking in this poll, ask yourself this question: what speaks more about Jeter, the fact that 10% of the league voted him most overrated, or that 90% of the league didn’t?

Jeter has had the kind of success that can be many things, but overrated is not one of them. I wonder if any of the players who voted for Jeter would have the guts to tell the world they did it. Do you think any of them would dare face the questioning and ridicule of the media by coming forward with why they voted Jeter overrated? I don’t know what’s worse about all of this, the jealousy or total lack of professionalism. You would think that players would be smart enough to avoid “booby trap” journalism like this piece of garbage.

It’s the Major League equivalent of a bunch of junior high girls talking bad about one another in secret on their myspace pages.

With all the focus on Tony Bernazard and how the Mets handled the Willie Randolph firing, a small transaction went unnoticed. On June 20th, just two days after Randolph was fired, former Reds GM Wayne Krivsky was hired as a scout. I find the timing of this move interesting with all the controversy surrounding Omar Minaya.

Throughout Minaya’s tenure he has been “teflon” when it comes to the perception woven by the media. Just a year ago he appeared on the cover of Sports Illustrated as he was lauded for turning the Mets around. The SI jinx struck as the Mets played sub .500 ball the rest of the year and authored one of the worst collapses in baseball history. Many have compared the firing of Randolph to an episode of the Sopranos; if that is the case then Minaya “whacking” Willie might lead to a future episode where he faces the end to his Mets career.

Overall you have to be happy with Minaya’s body of work since he came to New York. His biggest asset has been helping the Wilpon’s shed their apprehension to spending money on big ticket free agents. Just a year after they shied away from Vladimir Guerrero, Omar was able to recruit Pedro Martinez, Carlo Beltran and nearly Carlos Delgado. No other Mets team in history was ever able to land three potential impact players in one off season. Later complementary moves such as Endy Chavez, Oliver Perez, Jose Valentin, Chad Bradford and Darren Oliver led many to anoint Minaya GM for life. What’s interesting is that since he came up “aces” on those scrap heap moves Minaya has not yet been able to repeat his earlier performance in subsequent moves.

Rather than argue who is at fault (i.e. Bernazard) for some of the moves made since the winter of 2006 let’s look at the body of work. The Mets have given up the following since their NL East championship:

• Jesus Flores
• Heath Bell
• Royce Ring
• Matt Lindstrom
• Henry Owens
• Lastings Milledge
• Brian Bannister

The only players received from that group which have had impact on the major league club are Ryan Church and Brian Schneider. Perhaps you can argue that talents such as Ambiorix Burgos, Jason Vargas, and Adam Bostick have yet to be given a chance to develop. The problem with that is that many of the bullpens arms given up (Bell, Lindstrom, Owens) could have come in handy during that late 2007 collapse. What’s interesting is many are more up in arms about the trade that has worked (Milledge) than the other four which has essentially been giveaways.

That brings me to Krivsky and why he might be the GM in waiting. In his 27 seasons in professional baseball he has held numerous front office positions. He was assistant GM in Minnesota which historically has been able to spot talent and “do more with less”. During his tenure in Cincinnati he brought in Bronson Arroyo, Brandon Phillips and David Ross without giving up much of anything. The only criticism is of the July 2006 trade with Washington where Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez were given up for damaged middle relievers.

Excuse me but how have any of the names in that trade worked out? I don’t see a Scott Kazmir anywhere in that deal. I also believe the Volquez/Hamilton deal will become a steal in the very near future. Knowing that my observations from afar would not be enough to make a case for Krivsky I reached out to an industry source that has dealt with Krivsky on numerous occasions. My source described Wayne as a smart and upfront baseball man who has worked in organizations known for developing talent. He also believes that Krivsky’s presence should be reason for Omar Minaya to worry.

For the record, when I mentioned rumors of Bernazard being a potential replacement my source, just like many others, greeted that idea as openly as inviting the Grinch to Christmas dinner. Ultimately what is most curious is that he obtained the job the same week in which Omar was forced to fire Willie. Coincidence? I will let you formulate that opinion.

No matter how successful you are in the mafia you ultimately wind up either in jail or dead. Professional baseball is similar in that you’re hired to be fired. That decision is made much easier when your successor is working in the building. The irony of Willie Randolph’s tenure is that he never was able to have his own coaching staff. Manuel hovered behind him as a reminder of how easily the organization can find a replacement in the event of a change. Krivsky very well could be Omar’s Jerry Manuel.

One tidbit from the NY Baseball Digest rumor mill. We have looked into what possibly Omar Minaya might do to “beef up” his lineup. All year you have heard about the need for another right handed bat in the Mets lineup. Names like Jason Bay and Xavier Nady have been spoken about most frequently. I have been on the record by saying the Mets should re-acquire Nady. He hits lefties, can play multiple positions, and has shown that he can be successful in New York. We learned that Omar Minaya is thinking much bigger then Nady.

With the Colorado Rockies teetering on the brink of contention there is talk of Matt Holliday becoming available due to his upcoming free agency. NY Baseball Digest has learned that Omar has set his sights on Holliday. There is also reason to believe that Holliday is so desirable that Fernando Martinez’s “untouchable” status has been lifted. In my opinion, it will be difficult to obtain Holliday but we all know how persistent Omar can be when he focuses on a certain player. I compare this to his quest to acquire Roy Oswalt or Barry Zito in 2006. The Mets were a hair away from acquiring either of those pitchers to anchor the Mets rotation the second half of the year. It’s going to be tough to obtain Holliday unless Colorado likes some of the Mets lower level prospects. One thing I will leave the skeptics: they said that about Johan Santana as well.

Mike Silva is a freelance writer and radio host. His is the host of a New York baseball show called NY Baseball Digest that you can find at www.nybaseballdigest.com

Being the pathetically loyal Pirates fan that I am, I thought it would be fun to spend Father’s Day at the ballpark with my two-year-old son and wife. So last month when making plans, I was sad to see that the Pirates were on the road on Father’s Day, away from beautiful PNC Park. But behold! The Pirates were playing the Orioles in Baltimore, where my sister lives with her husband and six-year-old son. A plan quickly formed in my mind: how about a road-trip to “Balmur” (as it is pronounced by the locals) to see the Mighty Buccos take on the O’s?

I called my brother-in-law and we quickly obtained tickets – out of flying bat-shard range so the little guys would be safe. The wives were on board with the plan since it was a Father’s Day celebration – the one day of the year when fathers/husbands are given a little room to enjoy life without guilt and disapproving looks.

The day of the game arrived with uncharacteristically fine baseball weather for Baltimore: upper 80’s with a pleasant breeze and low humidity. Typical central-Maryland summer weather is brutally hot and humid. While the pleasant weather was a positive note, the Pirates had blown the two previous games against the O’s, including a 9th inning meltdown by closer Matt Capps the previous night, and I was feeling nervous. Witnessing a sweep in enemy territory and suffering the justified harassment from my brother-in-law and his neighbors would be a tough pill to swallow.

My little guy usually takes a two-hour nap starting at noon, which was going to make the 1:35pm starting time tough to meet. We tried to put him down early for a nap, but he wasn’t in tune with my plans and resisted sleep until after noon. To further delay our departure, he peed through the little Pirates “onesie” he was dressed in for the game, forcing a change of clothes. I viewed this as an ominous sign for the Pirates’ fortunes.

At 2:05pm, four adults and two child safety seats (each of which takes up three times the space of the actual child sitting in the safety seat) were squeezed into a Subaru Outback wagon heading to Camden Yards before we realized the umbrella stroller and been left behind! Five minutes and a U-turn later we were back on the road, and soon were outside of the original throwback ballpark – Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

We finally arrived at our seats in the fifth inning and enjoyed a competitive game, ultimately won by the Pirates in 10 innings after another back-breaking blown save by Matt Capps in the 9th. The boys clapped and cheered and appeared to enjoy the atmosphere, especially John Denver’s “Thank God I’m a Country Boy” during the 7th inning stretch. A foul ball landed only five seats away, and a free t-shirt hurled via sling-shot by the Oriole mascot was only slightly farther away. It was a wonderful Father’s Day celebration, and a reminder of the special place baseball holds in my heart. I left Camden Yards looking forward to sharing many future games with my son and nephew.

But an already good day was about to get better. While enjoying refreshments at a sidewalk table of the Wharf Rat restaurant across Pratt St. from Camden Yards, I spotted a man walking towards me in understated Pirates logo shorts, polo-shirt, hat, and dark sunglasses. Again, being the pathetically loyal Pirates fan that I am, I immediately recognized him as Pirates President Frank Coonelly! He was with his wife and appeared to be “undercover”, just walking along the street like any other fan leaving the game. I quickly announced his name to my group and those around us, and he was kind enough to shake hands and exchange commentary from the tumultuous weekend series. Mr. Coonelly stayed for perhaps two minutes before continuing on his way, and I immediately regretted not offering to buy him a beer. What an opportunity that would have been to pick his brain!

So when Father’s Day arrives next year, take my advice and head to a baseball game with your Dad and/or children. Whether your team wins or loses, you will have made a special memory. Who knows, perhaps you’ll even get to meet Larry Lucchino or Hank Steinbrenner or Jamie McCourt or…

As the history shows, JD Drew is not the bat that the Red Sox paid $14M per year to protect Manny Ramirez in the number five hole. Many have questioned the vision of Red Sox General Manager Theo Epstein and call the Drew signing one of the few mistakes he has made since being at the helm of the Red Sox franchise.

Health has predominantly been the only true question standing in Drew’s way to post all-star caliber numbers in a loaded Red Sox lineup. Although they haven’t received what they hoped for, their investment hasn’t proven to be a tree incapable of bearing fruit. What they have in Drew is a perfect compliment number three hitter who is graciously accepting the favorable pitches he now sees batting in front of the afore mentioned Ramirez.

Drew is filling the shoes of and lineup spot usually held by David Ortiz, who is currently on the DL with a wrist injury. It will be interesting to see what the Red Sox do when Ortiz returns. Do they keep Drew in the number three hole and sandwich Big Papi between Drew and Ramirez? This could provide the protection Ortiz may need depending on how severely his wrist injury hampers his power stroke.

If you look at Drew’s splits his average has been consistently above .300 regardless of batting slot. It is significantly higher though from the #3 spot where he is batting .377 as opposed to .313 and .333 for the 6th and 7th spots respectively. The major difference is in his power numbers. Drew’s OPS is 1.404 in the 3rd spot as opposed to .869 and .959 in the 6th and 7th spots in the Boston lineup. This has been as a result of his 17/10 BB/K ratio, which is far improved from the 19/37 while in the #6 and #7 holes combined. His patience and pitch selection has resulted in one more home run (7) in 61 AB’s in the three hole as opposed to the 144 AB’s it took to hit one less (6) in the 6/7 spots.

The Red Sox have battled many injuries this young season, many of which would sink most ballclubs, but the Red Sox depth has allowed them to hold the top spot in the AL East. With the many question marks surrounding the Red Sox pitching health and concerns of Big Papi’s return, Drew couldn’t have picked a better time to post his best numbers since 2004 in Atlanta. Drew is finally showing the Red Sox fans what Theo Epstein envisioned. Well, somewhat.

“You’re fired.” - Donald Trump

When it rains, it pours…

When in Rome…

Keeping up with the Jones’…

Grab your favorite catch-all expression and run with it because it’s time for the Parade of pink slips. That time honored MLB tradition of early summer reactionary firings that seem to happen every year or two; when one manager goes down, many managers will go down. The domino effect never fails. And it never ceases to amaze.

It all started on June 17th with the just after midnight email press release of the New York Mets dismissal of Willie Randolph. The Mets, the poster children for under-achievement, have a payroll of $138 million and a record just under .500. Not surprisingly Randolph was not alone when the heads began to roll. Pitching Coach Rick Peterson and first base coach Tom Nieto also received their walking papers. GM Omar Minaya didn’t fire bench coach Jerry Manuel; instead he promoted him to Randolph’s vacant office. Manuel, a former Manager of the Year with the White Sox, will guide the team for the rest of the season.

Two days later the firing parade made its way to the Pacific Northwest. Seattle gave skipper John McLaren his outright release three days after firing GM Bill Bavasi. To say the Mariners have “under-achieved” this year is like saying Oprah has “a little money.” Seattle had a Major League worst record of 25-47 when McLaren was removed from power. The Mariners are on pace to become the first team in baseball history to lose 100 games with a payroll over $100 million.

From there we make our latest stop: Toronto, Canada. On the afternoon of June 20th, GM J.P. Ricciardi gave manager John Gibbons the word that he was being replaced by two-time World Series Champion manager Cito Gaston. Gibbons, who was 35-39 this season and 305-305 in four years as the Jays manager, was not alone in his dismissal. Toronto also sent first year hitting coach Gary Denbo, third base coach Marty Pevey and first base coach Ernie Whitt to the showers.

Was Willie Randolph really to blame for the pathetic performance of the Mets? Hardly. But as they say, you can’t fire 25 players. Randolph led the team to the NLCS in 2006, where they fell to the eventual World Series Champion Cardinals. The following year the Mets were arguably the best team in the NL through August, but the September from Hell saw the Phillies catch and pass Willie’s boys in possibly the single most horrendous collapse of an organization since Enron. The numbers from September 12th of last year until today are staggering. Since then the Mets are 40-47, with a team batting average of .264, all while allowing five runs per game and blowing 13 saves.

This type of on field collapse goes much deeper than the mistakes of a field manager. It would appear that an entire overhaul of talent and payroll may be needed to make the Mets amazing once again. All of this brings us to the new man in charge. Do the Mets really believe that Jerry Manuel, a man who has been a part of this failure from the start, will turn this ship around? Maybe it’s Willie who should be thankful.

The Mariners are in no better shape with new manger Jim Riggleman in charge. In seven previous seasons managing the Padres and Cubs, Riggleman had one winning season. His career managerial record stands at 486-598, a .448 winning percentage. Outside of managerial failings, this team has fewer hits than a Best of Dexys Midnight Runners album. If you exclude Felix Hernandez and unhittable young flame thrower Brandon Morrow, the pitching staff is just as bad as the offense. When did Erik Bedard start pitching like Erik Estrada? At least this team got part of the firing right. Bill Bavasi got the ax a few days before McLaren. This is a sign that the Mariners can, in a year or two, get their stuff together, as long as they avoid dropping tens of millions on the next Adrian Beltres and Richie Sexsons that come down the pipeline.

Toronto may be the worst of this group. GM J.P. Ricciardi complains they can’t compete with the elites of the AL East if they don’t spend money. So they go out and sign B.J. Ryan, A.J. Burnett and Frank Thomas to big contracts. Those signings were questionable at best, especially for the money involved. So far, spending more money hasn’t helped the Jays. But maybe money really isn’t the problem. On May 24th, Eric Seidman of MVN.com put out a report card on the personnel moves of Ricciardi from 2002 through transactions made this year. This sabermetric analysis of J.P. was done using virtually every type of transaction that a GM can make, in season and off. Moves included free agents signings, free agents lost, trades, rule “5″ draft picks and waiver wire signings.

According to Seidman, Ricciardi’s moves as General Manager have, based on Win Shares, cost the Blue Jays about five wins per season since 2002. If this is true, and the Blue Jays truly value a sabermetric approach, which is why the hired Ricciardi in the first place, why does he still have a job? He should have gotten the ax with Gibbons, the man he hired to manage his questionable on field acquisitions. Maybe the J.P. stands for Just Pray.

So who will be next? Who will be the next team with a group of over-paid under-achievers and an ownership and GM who escape blame for their decisions and moves to give a field manager the heave ho?

Give it a couple of more days. The domino effect has a way of bringing out knee-jerk reactions from the men who run big league ball clubs from the front office. Give it a couple of more days to see what individual gets blamed for an entire organizations’ failure.

I think someone in the Indians’ organization is screwing with me. There can be no other explanation. I woke this morning to find that, on the heel s of signing space-wasters Jason Tyner then Jorge Velandia and Todd Linden, mighty Mark Shapiro has signed ultimate journeyman catcher Sal Fasano.

I had vowed to write some more positive articles, for fear of earning the label of Mr. Negativity. But I’m forced to stay on the Dark Side when Cleveland makes stupid moves like these. So here goes: Cleveland continues to show they can’t develop their own players. Something is broken.

It’s not that the trade for Sal Fasano is a bad one. After all, the Indians have a need for catching help now that Victor Martinez is out for an extended period.

The problem is that the Indians apparently feel they don’t already have someone in their minor league system capable of producing Fasano-like results, which offensively is something around .219/.293/.394 in 120 or so at bats over the season.

How can this be? How can the Indians not have one prospect developed enough to play two games a week for the next six weeks – or not have a veteran insurance catcher at AAA. That is, after all, what AAA is for, at least for contending teams.

Not having internal catching depth is like your local Starbucks having just one person trained on ordering coffee. It’s a pretty important function, so you need to have redundancy within your organization. I guess the Indians didn’t get that memo.

1. I know the Yankees were indecisive about Joba Chamberlain, but he’s been totally non-decisive as a starter, getting no decisions in four starts. The Astros’ Shawn Chacon didn’t get a decision this year until his 10th start. Chamberlain reminds me a lot of Josh Beckett.

2. Cleveland should be called the Vampires. It has a 7-15 record in day games, the fewest number of wins by any team in the majors; Florida, Houston, Colorado and Los Angeles each have eight. The Cubs are 24-12 in the daylight.

3. The Rockies have only one three-game series sweep this season. That was on April 7, 8, and 9 against the Braves. They were scheduled to play again on the 10th, but hell froze over – they were snowed out.

4. It doesn’t hurt that the Rays have made only 29 errors this season, the least in the majors.

5. The apple falls far from the tree – Prince Fielder, all 270 pounds of him, now has two inside-the-park homers and 10 stolen bases in his career. His dad, Cecil (240+ lbs.) had 319 career homers, all out of the park, and two career stolen bases, going 1,096 games before he stole his first.

6. Last week, Hideki Matsui of the Yankees celebrated his 34th birthday with a grand-slam. On Matsui’s 22nd and 24th birthdays in Japan he also homered.

7. Talk about dominance, the Padres’ Jake Peavy has a 12-1 career record and 2.21 ERA against the Dodgers.

8. Colorado starter Aaron Cook’s 10 victories this season is a career high. He is 4-1 at home with a 2.56 ERA, and 6-2 on the road with a 3.86 ERA.

9. First Bartolo Colon, then Sidney Ponson, and soon Freddy Garcia. It’s not easy for a pitcher to collect unemployment insurance.

10. You know what Junior Griffey, Tom Seaver, Sparky Anderson, Bill James and Babe Ruth all have in common? The first name of George.

11. On Forbes list of the 100 Most Powerful Celebrities, the only baseball player to make the list was A-Rod at #24.

12. Yankees have swept back-to-back series for the first time since sweeping the Pirates and Diamondbacks last season. Unfortunately for them, the Yanks are still in the AL.

13. When Kenny Rogers defeated the Giants in San Francisco this week it was his 38th major-league park in which he appeared. Among active starters, only Jamie Moyer (46), Randy Johnson (43) and Livan Hernandez (39) have appeared in more.

14. Jason Giambi and Chase Utley are tied for the major league lead in being hit by pitches this season with 11. Amongst active players Jason Kendall leads with 226, followed by Carlos Delgado (162), Jason Giambi (146), Derek Jeter (135), Alex Rodriguez (131), Gary Sheffield (130), Damion Easley (127), and David Eckstein (122).

15. The only current A.L. park the Cubs have not played in is Oakland’s McAfee Coliseum. The Cubs have never played the Red Sox at Fenway Park, but they did play the Boston Braves there in 1914 and 1915.

16. The Braves activated closer Mike Gonzalez for the first time since undergoing Tommy John surgery on May 31, 2007, and Gonzalez promptly earned a save. Gonzalez has now converted each of his last 31 save opportunities, the longest current streak in the major leagues. The last save Gonzalez blew was on June 25, 2004 at Cincinnati.

17. Hard to believe the A’s are having such a successful season considering that their leadoff hitters rank last in the majors in batting average and on-base percentage and tied for the fourth fewest walks.

18. Here’s one that baseball writers will have a struggle with: Is Jim Thome a future Hall of Famer? Thome hit his 521st career home run on Tuesday, tying Hall of Famers Ted Williams and Willie McCovey for 16th on the all-time list.

19. With all the talk about the Cubs, people are missing a big story with the White Sox. The White Sox lead the major leagues with a 3.34 ERA and their starters lead the major leagues with 45 quality starts and rank second with a 3.63 ERA. Meanwhile their bullpen leads the American League with a 2.62 ERA. The last time Chicago led the AL and the major leagues in bullpen ERA was in 1991 (2.85).

20. Toronto has played in 29 one-run games – the most in the AL – but are only 11-18 in those contests (5-11 on the road).

21. In his 19-year career, Robin Roberts started 609 games and completed 305 of them. He also gave up 505 home runs, the most in major league history.

22. In their rookie seasons, John Smoltz was 2-7 with a 5.48 ERA, Tom Glavine (7-17, 4.56), Greg Maddux (6-14, 5.61), and Randy Johnson was 7-13, with a 4.82.

23. Approaching the one year anniversary of Mike Hargrove’s abrupt resignation from the Seattle Mariners. He’s now coaching semi-pro ball in Liberal, Kansas (talk about oxymorons!). I wonder if John McLaren will join his staff.

24. Indians pitchers have surrendered seven grand slams, offered up by seven different pitchers: Rafael Betancourt, Joe Borowski, Paul Byrd, Jorge Julio, Aaron Laffey, Edward Mujica and C.C. Sabathia.

25. Happy birthday Sunday to Jeff Idelson (formerly of Newton, MA) – new president of the Hall of Fame.

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide. Autographed first editions are available by contacting, Bill@billy-ball.com or order directly from Acta Sports, http://www.actasports.com/detail.html?&id=3427 or from your favorite bookstore.

Carlos Quentin

• Outfielder
• Chicago White Sox
• DOB: 08/28/1982
• Height/Weight: 6’1″/225lb
• Bats/Throws: Right/Right
• Body Type: Strong body, durable XL frame

Categorization

• Current: Average
• Projected: Average/Good

Categorization Scale:

• Elite: top player at his position (Alex Rodriguez, George Brett, Mike Schmidt)
• Premium: top five at his position (Wade Boggs)
• Good: top 10 at his position; occasional All-Star
• Average: everyday position player
• Key role: part-time or platoon player

GRADES (20-80 scale)

Overall: 55

Batting: 55

• Power: 65
• Contact: 55
• Average: 50

Running: 45

• Speed: 50
• Base Running: 45 
• Instinct: 45

Fielding: 50

• Hands: 50
• Footwork: 50
• Range: 50  

Throwing: 55

• Release: 55
• Arm Strength: 60
• Arm Accuracy: 45

Overall

After two years of disappointment in Arizona, 25-year-old White Sox outfielder Carlos Quentin would appear to be realizing the potential he showed in the minors – where he produced a line of .313/.413/.527 in 379 games. In 240 at bats with the White Sox, Quentin has a line of .271/.382/.530 and is among the league leader in several categories:

• 7th in runs (47)
• 2nd in home runs (17)
• 2nd in RBIs (56)
• 8th in slugging (.530)
• 7th in Adjusted OPS+ (141)

Quentin has the physical tools to be an everyday player at the Major League level and is finally showing he can use them effectively. He plays hard every day. He has above average power and fits the role of a right fielder or left fielder on a championship club. He had off-season surgery on his left shoulder to repair a torn labrum and torn rotator cuff, and it looks like it made a significant difference in his production.

Quentin’s consistent production at the plate has been a big reason why the White Sox are atop the American League Central standings, despite the woes of Paul Konerko (.215 batting average), Juan Uribe (.203), Nick Swisher (.230) and Jim Thome (.228). Quentin has taken an aggressive approach to hitting by driving balls to all parts of the field. He started the year batting seventh in the line-up and is now batting third. Quentin is hitting the ball down in the zone well and is capable of driving it out of the park from left field to right field.

But wait – don’t get too excited.

While Quentin is having a very good year, he projects to topping out as just an average to possibly good player. Because he wasn’t well known in the American League to start of the season, Quentin got some good pitches to hit – or at least better than what he would have seen in the National League. The more exposure American League pitchers and scouts get to Quentin, the more they’ll identify his strengths and weaknesses; and they’ll adjust their attack plan accordingly. Quentin’s production will slow down, and looking at his monthly splits, we see this trend already occurring:

Long term, Quentin projects to be somewhere around the level of Twins outfielders Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer. If he continues to improve, he could max out at around Trot Nixon’s peak.

Strengths

• Plus power (25+ HR)
• Strong arm
• “Gamer-type” attitude and approach
• Poise and maturity to hit in the middle of the lineup
• Can get on-base even when not hitting (high walk rate and gets hit by a lot of pitches)

Weaknesses

• Streaky hitter
• Tends to chase pitches out of the strike zone
• Arm accuracy is below average

Successful pitcher plan

The key to subduing Quentin is to use fastballs over 90mph above the belt in combination with breaking pitches on the outer half of the plate. Quentin starts from a crouched position and many times raises up his head and upper body to hit the high pitch. This move creates a long swing and as a result he doesn’t drive it as much.

Another good way for left-handers to attack Quentin is with a good change-up. When a pitcher pitches to contact, the goal is to make sure the batter doesn’t get good or “square” contact. A good change-up will be effective at keeping Quentin off balance and unable to make square contact because his stance has him so spread out.

Unsuccessful pitcher plan

The place not to pitch Quentin is down in the strike zone. The low center of gravity within his very crouched stance provides quickness from his strong legs and the ability to drive the low ball. Because he’s in that crouch, Quentin moves his body less versus low pitches and as a result recognizes more pitches and shifts his weight easier.

Hitting Mechanics

Quentin is an aggressive hitter. He stands close to the plate with an open stance. He is crouched with his legs spread out, so he needs just a short stride to get square to the throw of the pitcher. Quentin’s setup allows him to stay balanced and follow through with his swing more consistently against low pitches. Quentin’s stance, which he changed this year, also limits his head movements, and this allows him to recognize more pitches and be better able to make contact against strikes of various types.

He was called “The Natural” on the cover of Sports Illustrated shortly after being called up to the majors in 2005.  Three years after pinning that cover on their walls, many Braves fans are calling for Jeff Francoeur to be dropped in the lineup, benched, dropped to the minors or traded. Let’s look at some of the options.

Should Francoeur be dropped in the lineup?  Francoeur usually alternates lineup slots with catcher Brian McCann.  Against right-handers, McCann bats fifth and Francoeur sixth.  Against lefties, vice versa.  Prior to this season, there was good reason for this.  For their careers against right-handers, Francoeur is hitting .264 with a .301 OBP and a .428 SLG and McCann is hitting .301 with a .362 OBP and a .513 SLG.  Against lefties for their careers, Francoeur is hitting .305 with a .351 OBP and a .522 SLG while McCann is hitting .289 with a .344 OBP and a .483 SLG. 

This season, however, Francoeur has struggled mightily against both righties and lefties, while McCann has excelled against both.  For the season, Francoeur is batting .253 with a .303 OBP and a .413 SLG while McCann has hit .305 with a .380 OBP and a .564 SLG.  Making matters worse, over his last 53 games, Francoeur is batting .242 with a .299 OBP and a .374 SLG.  Based upon the performance this season, Francoeur should never bat ahead of McCann, regardless of who is pitching. 

Should Francoeur bat lower than sixth?  If Mark Kotsay was healthy and Matt Diaz was healthy and performing as he had in the two previous seasons, Francoeur should be dropped lower in the order.  Kotsay and Diaz, however, aren’t healthy and Diaz wasn’t performing even when he was in the lineup.  In the absence of Kotsay and Diaz, manager Bobby Cox has been playing Gregor Blanco, Greg Norton, Omar Infante and Josh Anderson in left and center.  None of those four players, over the course of 162 games, figure to put up numbers better than Francoeur. Thus, they should not bat ahead of Francoeur. 

Should Francoeur be benched or be sent to the minors?  Unfortunately, the injury depleted Braves don’t have anyone better in their system to replace Francoeur.  As mentioned above, Kotsay and Diaz are injured and Blanco, Anderson, Norton and Infante aren’t better hitters or players.  Hotshot outfield prospect Jordan Schafer was suspended for 50 games for using HGH and has only played 10 games above A ball.  Prospects Jason Heyward and Gorkys Hernandez are still too young and are only playing A ball.  Prospect Brandon Jones has struggled at AAA Richmond this year.  The options to replace Francoeur are nonexistent.  Even if they did have someone within their system good enough or were able to trade for one, that player would be needed to play left field, a position where the Braves have an anemic .303 OBP and a .315 SLG for the season. 

Unfortunately, the Braves are stuck with him killing the lineup batting sixth.  Francoeur’s 79 at bats with runners-in-scoring-position (RISP) are the most in the National League and the second most in the majors behind only Dustin Pedroia of the Boston Red Sox.  Francoeur is only hitting .228 with a .267 OBP and a .367 SLG with RISP.  That is very unusual for Francoeur.  For his career, in 558 plate appearances with RISP, Francoeur has batted .315 with a .364 OBP and a .508 SLG.  For a Braves team that is 3-17 in one run games thus far, Francoeur’s problems with RISP have been costly and glaring.  It seems as if every time the Braves get something going in a close game, Francoeur comes to the plate to kill the rally by stranding baserunners.  If Francoeur had produced as in years past, perhaps the Braves would have four or five extra wins in those one run.  And a 32-33 Braves team sure could have benefited from those extra wins. 

Since they’re stuck with Francoeur, how do they get him turned around?  For one, be patient.  He’s still only 24 years old.  Many notable hitters such as Dale Murphy, Ron Gant, Joe Carter, Roberto Clemente and Alfonso Soriano struggled at similar ages before blossoming into stars.  Patience is also important because in 2006 and 2007 Francoeur suffered similar struggles early in the season before finishing strong.  Through the first 81 games of 2006, Francoeur had a .250 average with a .269 OBP and a .429 SLG.  Over his last 81 games of 2006, Francoeur hit .270 with a .318 OBP and a .470 SLG.  Through the first 78 games of 2007, Francoeur hit .273 with a .318 OBP and a .429 SLG.  Over his last 84 games of 2007, Francoeur hit .311 with a .355 OBP and a .473 SLG. 

If Francoeur is to turn things around this season, he needs to tune out his critics who believe his fatal flaw is his aggression as a hitter.  As a young developing hitter, he is best off staying true to himself by maintaining his aggression and gradually learning more plate discipline as he gets older and more experienced.  More important than improved plate discipline is mechanical perfection.  His mechanical flaws are causing too many strikeouts and batted balls to land softly in gloves.  He has poor balance at the plate this season.  His hind leg seems to go out from under him, causing a hitch in his swing.  It almost seems that he is too conscious of the criticism that he is pull happy.  Like a pitcher who alters his mechanics so that he can “push” or “aim” the ball for a strike, Francoeur seems to have altered his mechanics to hit the ball to right more.  Of course, the result is that he isn’t hitting balls the other way and isn’t pulling balls with authority either. 

Most of all, Francoeur needs to stop trying to be everything to everyone on the field and off of it.  He has been famous since the age of 16 in the Atlanta area because of his high school football and baseball exploits.  Unless he becomes the next Chipper Jones, which he won’t, he’ll never be able to live up to the hype.  It almost seems that he wants to justify the hype by becoming a superstar overnight the way he was in his first two months in the majors in 2005.  He needs to realize that, for now, he is not that kind of hitter.  Maybe someday in his prime he will have two or three seasons where he puts up a .350 OBP and a .550 SLG and becomes an elite hitter.  His prime, however, is still three seasons away.  For now, he just needs to be content that he is a young and flawed, but nevertheless a valuable slugger who will maybe someday develop into an elite one. And that’s okay – for now. 

Of course, that’s easier said than done.  Francoeur is due to be arbitration eligible in this upcoming offseason.  He has refused to agree to multi-year contracts offered him by the Braves.  This has increased the pressure to justify his contractual desires.  He’s best off putting the financial concerns aside until he becomes a free agent a few offseasons from now.  Luckily for him, when he becomes a free agent, he will have just entered his prime.  There’s no better time to finally become a superstar than the season before you become a free agent.  So why try to rush things now just because you are about to become arbitration eligible? 

The multi-million dollar question is should the Braves bother expending the time, labor and monetary resources needed to continue to develop Francoeur while he is a flawed, mediocre corner outfielder in the hopes that in 2011 he may finally blossom into a superstar during his contract year?  Or should they trade him now while he still has value?  It may not make sense to invest so much into the development of an arbitration eligible mediocre performer if he is only going to walk away and let another team enjoy his prime years (if he ever has any).  But then again, you can’t get rid of Francoeur if you don’t have anyone in your system who can be even as mediocre as Francoeur is now.

It doesn’t take much to distract me. Yesterday it was a simple statement regarding the 0-20 slump that Chase Utley of the Phillies found himself in: “Ted Williams went 0 for 20,” Phils’ manager Charlie Manuel said. “Those are things you work through. It’s all part of it. It’s the everyday grind.”

It was the first part of Manuel’s comment, “Ted Williams went 0 for 20,” that sent me down the Google Highway. When did Ted Williams go 0 for 20?

On Google I found Ted talking with Leigh Montville about hitting slumps, particularly the one Tony Gwynn was experiencing at the time of the interview (August, 1998):

LM: What would bring a slump to you - a little change in your mechanics?TW: I might run into a little period where I’m really ripping the ball and pulling it good and hitting them 420, now I’m gonna hit one 450 and all of a sudden I’m uggh too much and all of a sudden I’m getting pitched tough to. I’d lay in bed and I’d think, “Oh boy, why am I not hitting? I remember a couple weeks ago I was hitting real good and I remember a couple pitches I hit that boy I was really quick on that.” Then things would start coming back to me and I’d say, “I’m getting too big, I’m not keeping my head on the ball.” And all of a sudden I might get out of it but you can’t do it sometimes for a long period, just like Gwynn today. He’s been in this thing he’s in for three weeks.

LM: You would never swing at a ball out of the strike zone.TW: I tried not to. I got criticized. One of the biggest writers in the country, and one of the smarties I think, George Will, politically I’m with him all the way, but baseballically he don’t know too much about hitting or playing.

I found that in 1947 Williams was slumping and he told Time magazine that someone suggested that he back away from the plate a few inches more. “Snarled Williams: ‘I get all that sort of advice from newspapermen who can’t hit, from pitchers and from .250 hitters. I’m not changing my position at the plate.’”

I read that Babe Ruth said, “Scallions are the greatest cure for a batting slump ever invented.”

I read about William Aloysius “Bill” Bergen who played for 11 years (1901-1911) and had a career batting average of .170 – the all-time lowest for any position player who was a legitimate regular. Between June 29, 1909 and July 17, 1909, Bergen went 0 for 46 – the record for the longest consecutive hitless streak.

I learned that Pete Siegel, a Southern California hypnotherapist who has worked with numerous major leaguers, including Damion Easley, Tim Salmon and Scott Spiezio said, “A slump is a life-crippling, life-crushing experience.”

Hall of Famers went into slumps. Even Cal Ripken, Jr. had a streak of 0-for-29 stretch in April, 1988. Mike Schmidt topped that going 0 for 30 for the 1988 Phils. That’s nothing compared to Luis Aparicio who went 0 for 44 with the Boston Red Sox in 1971.

Robin Ventura, in his rookie season in 1990, had 41 hitless at bats with the White Sox. Last season, with the Red Sox, Julio Lugo went hitless in 33 straight at-bats between singles on June 14 vs. Colorado and July 3 vs. Tampa Bay. Boomer Scott went 0 for 35 with the 1978 BoSox.

In 2005, Ichiro went 0-24 for the M’s and Andruw Jones last season went 0-21. Jose Cruz, Jr. holds the Pirates record going 0-37.

This season, New York Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano had a hitless streak of 17 at-bats and Yankees’ catcher Jose Molina had a 0-23 streak earlier this season as well. In 2004, Yankees captain Derek Jeter broke a 0-32 slump with a home run. That was the longest slump for the Yankees since Jimmy Wynn went 0 for 32 in 1977. Yogi Berra had an 0-32 stretch which he also broke with a home run. Bernie Williams once went 0-23 and Don Mattingly went 0-21 from 4/21 to 4/25/1993

Alex Rodriguez had a postseason hitless streak of 18 at-bats that he broke in 2007. Gil Hodges went 0-21 in the 1952 World Series prompting call for prayers in churches all over Brooklyn. In 2000, the Mariners’ catcher Dan Wilson’s soft single stopped a record 42 at-bat hitless streak for him in postseason play and a 26 at-bat hitless streak in the LCS. Marv Owen went 0-for-31 for Detroit in 1934 and ‘35 post-seasons.

Willie Mays went 0 for his first 12 major league at bats before homering against Warren Spahn. Barry B*nds’ worst oh-fer was 0-22. Fellow steroid user, Jose Cans*co went 0 for 40 when he was the A’s in 1980.

In 1984, Mets exec Tony Bernazard was playing for the Indians and he went 0 for 44. The manager he helped fire, Willie Randolph, went 0 for 30 with the Yanks in 1988 to end the season. In 1989, he started off 0 for 3 compiling a 0 for 33 streak altogether.

Larry Stone wrote in an article for Baseball Digest that when Tim Naehring was mired in an 0-for-39 slump with the Boston Red Sox in 1991, he had his barber carve “hit” into the back of his scalp. Ozzie Guillen sprinkled eye drops on his bats “so they could see the ball good.”

Dave Campbell, the baseball analyst/broadcaster, once went 0 for 45 in 1973, doing it for three teams. He started it with the Padres, was traded to the Cardinals for whom he went 0 for 21 and ended it with the Astros. On the subject of broadcasters, Joe Morgan when he was with the Phils in 1983 went 0 for 35 and Buck Martinez went 0 for 32 with the Brewers in 1978.

No hitless conversation would be complete without pitcher Bob Buhl’s 1962 season. Buhl started the season with Milwaukee Braves and went 0 for 1. He had ended the 1961 season with Braves 0 for 2 so when he was traded to the Cubs he was in a 0 for 3 “slump.” Pitching for the Cubs that season, Buhl was 12-13. At the plate he was 0 for 69, making him 0 for 72 overall. In his 16th at bat of the 1963 season, on May 8, Buhl singled off the Pirates’ Al McBean. Buhl finished his career hitting a robust .089.

But my searching to this point has not been able to verify Charlie Manuel’s statement about Teddy Ballgame. So now it’s your turn. Email me at Bill@Billy-Ball.com and share with me what you can dig up about hitting slumps and next week I’ll write a follow-up article.

Oh-fer goodness sakes, somebody should be able to find this, don’t you think?

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide. Autographed first editions are available by contacting, Bill@billy-ball.com or order directly from Acta Sports, http://www.actasports.com/detail.html?&id=3427 or from your favorite bookstore.

Dear Jerry,

Congratulations on your recent promotion to manager of the New York Mets. I have already said a prayer for you, and I will be sure to light a candle for you on Sunday as well. 

You probably have already been warned about staying on Tony Bernazard’s good side, and going to the SNY Gift shop and loading up on Loudmouths T-shirts and an SNY cap to wear at all times when you’re not in a Mets uniform. However, those things alone may not be enough to enhance your job security.

As a show of good faith, we at Mets Merized Online wanted to give you these additional 10 tips with the hope that you take them to heart because your livelihood may depend on it.    

1. Keep your friends close and your enemies 3,000 miles away.

2. If you ever see a machete lying around in the backroom, run like hell.

3. Pitch counts may be hazardous to your health. Ignore them at all times.

4. If you’re going to scold one of your young stars, don’t do it in front of the cameras.

5. Stick up for your players on close plays so that in turn they might stick up for you.

6. Never answer your telephone at 3:00 AM unless it’s for some good phone sex. 

7. If the Wilpons don’t return your phone calls, start worrying and upload your resume on monster.com.

8. Write a letter to congress explaining why you think every Sunday should be Fathers Day.

9. When Ian O’Connor comes around, only mention race when referring to the New York Marathon.

10. When SNY points the camera at you during ball games, show them your pearly whites and jump up and down like your hair’s on fire.

We hope you consider this good advice during your tenure as Mets manager. All of us at Mets Merized Online wish you the best of luck as you begin you new journey.

Sincerely,

Mets Merized Online

P.S. Any chance you can send me a Mr. Met signed baseball?

What Might Have Been

When I was a kid, I had a baseball card that I absolutely loved. On it was Ron Guidry and J.R. Richard – ERA leaders. I didn’t really care about Richard; I was only interested in Louisiana Lightning. He was a Yankee, went 25-3, so that was all I needed to know. Years later, I found out that Richard had a dominating fastball which got him about a strikeout an inning, and that he averaged a sick 281 innings a season between 1976 and 1979. But at 10 years old, that meant nothing to me. J.R. Richard wasn’t a Yankee, so I didn’t care.

Two years later, Richard suffered a stroke playing catch before a game and never pitched in the majors again.

A few years after that, I was riding a bus home from high school. Finals were over, it was turning summer out, and I was reading a paper about how the hated Celtics, who had just won the championship, had taken a super-talented forward to pair with McHale and Bird. Mike Krzyzewski said of this forward that he and Michael Jordan were the two most talented players to ever play in the ACC. His name was Len Bias. Two days after the Celtics selected him first in the draft, he was dead from a cocaine overdose. The Celtics hadn’t won another championship since until the other night.

Potential Lost

It is always upsetting when we see budding talent lost or squandered – when possibilities seem endless and the promise of amazing deeds await us. But it might even be worse when it is a young athlete. When someone is capable of true grace on a field of play, and then that talent is lost, it seems like a crime.

Go watch Grant Hill before ankle injuries robbed him of his talent. Go watch him and tell me he wasn’t put on this earth to play the game of basketball, and that injuries robbed us of one of the best all-around players to ever play the game.

Go check out Doc Gooden, circa 1985, when he was just 21. Check out his absolutely sick high fastball and his leg-buckling sweeping curve. Check him out that year when he won the National League Triple Crown for pitchers, with 24 wins, 268 K’s, and a 1.53 ERA. Then try to figure out how he won only 194 games in his career. How he never won 20 games again. Try not to feel sad about it.

In sports, unfortunately, this happens all too often. Because of injuries, drugs or any other numbers of reasons, guys who seem like the next Michael Jordan, Dick Butkus, or Mickey Mantle lose the battle with fate. It happens all too often, yet I am still just as saddened each and every time it happens.

Take Rocco Baldelli of the Tampa Bay Rays. Debuting in 2003, when he was just 21, Rocco seemed like the centerfielder of the future for the Rays. Athletic, someone “who mans centerfield like a young Joe DiMaggio” with a sweet stroke and with the potential to grow into a decent home run hitter, Rays fans saw him teaming with Carl Crawford as a young duo to build around.

Unfortunately, Baldelli must have walked under a ladder behind a black cat while breaking a mirror. After the 2004 season, Baldelli tore an ACL and missed the beginning of the 2005 season. Then he injured his elbow and required Tommy John surgery, and he missed the entire 2005 season and missed a big chunk of the 2006 season – though he looked great in the action he did see, hitting 16 HRs in just 92 games. The 2007 season was a wash as well, as hamstring injuries lingered all season and kept him from making any real contribution. It has since turned out that Baldelli has been suffering from a mitochondrial disorder that has kept him in a constant state of fatigue. His baseball career is in serious jeopardy and it’s unknown if he can ever play again.

There’s also Mark Prior who won 18 games in 2003 when he was 23, and has won just 20 games since due to injuries. Or how about Monica Seles, who won the French Open when she was 16, for two years absolutely dominated women’s tennis—with a 55-1 win-loss record in Grand Slam tournaments—until some psycho stabbed her in the back and forced her into semi-retirement and has never been the same since. Of course, there is Michael Vick, who, while overrated as a quarterback, was nonetheless a brilliant athlete and a mega talent. That is, until he decided to hang some dogs and flush his talent down the toilet.

When It Had Been Effortless

Speaking as someone who can never glide to the basket like Grant Hill, or throw a 75-yard bomb like Vick, or glide through centerfield to catch a deep drive like Baldelli – and who has always blunted his sadness that he can’t do these things by idolizing those who can do them with ease and grace – it saddens me when people who can do these things lose the ability to do them.

Ernest Hemingway, in his memoir, “A Moveable Feast”, wrote about F. Scott Fitzgerald in a passage I’ll never forget, both for its beauty and for its horror.

“His talent was as natural as the pattern that was made by the dust on a butterfly’s wings. At one time he understood it no more than the butterfly did and he did not know when it was brushed or marred. Later he became conscious of his damaged wings and of their construction and he learned to think and could not fly anymore because the love of flight was gone and he could only remember when it had been effortless.”

In 1991, picking first in the amateur baseball draft, the Yankees took Brien Taylor, a 19-year-old lefty who threw lightning bolts and who swaggered on the mound because he knew he was the real deal. Scott Boras, agent to hundreds of athletes, says of him, “Brien Taylor, still to this day, is the best high school pitcher I’ve seen in my life.” In his senior season at high school, Taylor struck out 213 guys in 88 innings with a fastball that touched 99 mph. At Class A Fort Lauderdale, he struck out 187 in 161 innings and posted a 2.57 ERA. The next year, as a 21-year-old at Double-A Albany-Colonie, Taylor went 13-7 with a 3.48 ERA and struck out almost a hitter an inning. Baseball America had named him the game’s best prospect.

After his second year in the minors, Taylor went home for the winter. Getting into a fistfight with his cousin, a known felon and loser, Taylor throws a punch with his thunderbolt-throwing left arm and misses. Taylor suffered a torn capsule and torn labrum and had his arm examined by famed surgeon Dr. Frank Jobe. Jobe later calls it one of the worst injuries he has ever seen. After the surgery, Taylor’s fastball topped out at 91. He never had an ERA below 6.00 again. He currently does odd jobs and lives with his parents in his hometown.

“Out There Was What I Was Born To Do…”

The reason I’ve been thinking of J.R. Richard, Brien Taylor and Len Bias was because of Josh Hamilton. Hamilton was the Rays’ first (and number one) draft pick for the franchise in the 1999 draft. He was picked right ahead of Josh Beckett. An absolute can’t-miss phenom, Hamilton didn’t drink, didn’t smoke, and was called by scouts, “the best pure athlete they’ve ever seen.”

Three years later, Hamilton was out of baseball due to cocaine and crack. He says that he spent most of his time out of baseball walking the streets of Raleigh looking for dealers who could give him some crack. He says he would sometimes wake up surrounded by other junkies whom he didn’t know. “The best pure athlete” was a crack junkie who didn’t change his clothes, lost 60 pounds off his athlete’s physique, and was nowhere near the game he was born to play.

But then the impossible happened. Hamilton stopped doing drugs. He got himself a job at a baseball facility scrubbing toilets and raking the field, so that he could use the facilities at night. At night he slept on an air mattress in an office overlooking the field. “It was hard to look out at that field,” he says. “Out there was what I was born to do, but because of decisions I made, I couldn’t do it.”

But he did do it. In 2007, after three years of suspensions, and four years since he stepped onto a field, Hamilton was reinstated to play baseball. Picked up by the Reds, Hamilton batted .292 with 19 HRs in under 300 ABs. This year, he’s batting .300 and has a slugging percentage of .562. It was as if Hamilton had never left the game.

The story of Hamilton is amazing. Nobody comes back from crack addiction. Eddie Guardado, a former and current teammate of Hamilton, said this: “I don’t think people understand the sort of odds Josh overcame to make it. My brother was a heroin addict who died from drugs … So for Josh to return from all those years of not playing baseball – having barely picked up a bat – and perform at that level, well, it tells you what kind of player he is.”

There’s a poem I like by John Greenleaf Whittier. Whittier was a Quaker and a fierce abolitionist, but he was also a poet. The poem is entitled Maud Miller, and is quite long, but the lines I like are these:

And for him who sat by the chimney lug,
Dozing and grumbling o’er pipe and mug,

A manly form at her side she saw,
And joy was duty and love was law.

Then she took up her burden of life again,
Saying only, “It might have been.”

Alas for maiden, alas for judge,
For rich repiner and household drudge!

God pity them both! and pity us all,
Who vainly the dreams of youth recall;

For of all sad words of tongue or pen,
The saddest are these: “It might have been!”

What might have been for Taylor, Richard and Bias. Sad isn’t a big enough word when you think what they could have accomplished, what joy they could have had and given. Because frankly, for me, not an athlete, but a fan, there is nothing like watching the grace and beauty of someone doing what they were put on this earth to do.

Read more by Paul at www.andaplayertobenamedlater.blogspot.com

Throughout Willie Randolph’s tenure as Mets manager he was rude, condescending and paranoid to all New York Mets stakeholders. He never connected with the media and had trouble managing upward with his superiors in the front office. The one constant in Willie’s corner, up until last June, were the 25 men in the clubhouse. Once he lost those guys he was a lonely man on an island using his time focused on protecting his job and reputation. The sad part about this whole fiasco is how the mainstream media, the very ones that were subjected to Randolph’s daily rudeness, are now making him out to be an undeserving victim.

The facts can’t lie in this situation. Since June 1st 2007 up until this past Monday the Mets have had 88 wins and 91 losses. They have played sloppy and uninspired baseball, and that’s turned Shea Stadium into a cauldron of negativity. All through this Willie responded with nasty bromides about how he is a “winner”, “know’s his guys” and “sees a turnaround coming”. These types of responses belong in the leadership handbook of most fortune 500 companies. At least the fans get paid to hear empty suits preach nonsense at their jobs, at Shea you have the privilege of spending a few hundred bucks with your family to see the residual effect of that garbage. The biggest indictment should be the player quote from Bob Klapisch of “The Record” who outlined a veteran responding to Willie criticism by saying that “He would be here longer than Willie”.

I am not going to defend the way Omar Minaya handled the firing of Willie Randolph, but let’s be honest, is there really ever a good way to fire a person? The only mistake Omar made in this whole situation is not doing this sooner and allowing the stench of September 2007 to linger in the Mets’ clubhouse. It was the loyalty he felt to Willie that extended the stay of execution past Memorial Day weekend. The media had their fill of bashing Willie and now was intent on targeting Omar and their favorite whipping boy: Jeff Wilpon. Neither deserved as much heat nor the photo shopped pictures of knives, clown noses or chickens. The only thing that they should be chastised for is allowing a hack like Tony Bernazard to still be running around the clubhouse. That story has been hashed out and is for another day.

It’s always easy to blame the bosses. Trust me, I have had to fire people in my professional life, and it’s the toughest thing to do. I doubt most of the people who are focusing on Omar and the Wilpon’s understand the politics and logistics of removing someone from their position. I saw Omar Minaya show genuine pain during his press conference. He knew that he would be criticized and understood how his decision impacted another man’s life.

In the end my biggest disappointment is with the mainstream and independent media. No one has even tried to see the other side of the story. I understand the mainstream’s position in having to sell newspapers, but where are my brethren in the independent media? Even my former colleague, Mark Healey of Gotham Baseball Magazine, used this situation to write an agenda driven story on Tony Bernazard. Although a great read I believe he, rather than use four year old sources and information to make an analogy between Al Goldis and Bernazard, should have been defending the Wilpon’s and reminding everyone of why Willie was fired.

Mark has always been the first to defend ownership, but this time he chose to bury that support in another column. This disappoints me because I thought he understood the difficult position upper management has been put in and would use this pulpit to educate his readers. I guess I will have to be that lone voice in a sea of dissenters. In the end I will be bashed, criticized, and mocked for this, but honestly I don’t care: Willie Randolph got what he deserved and let’s not forget how deserving an ax he received. Instead of criticizing Mets management it’s about time someone lauded them for starting the turnaround.

I met Sidney Ponson one time at a restaurant in Fort Lauderdale, FL in October 2006. At the restaurant, the owner likens himself to a DJ, constantly spinning tunes, and always announces his “celebrity” clientele. Ponson was drinking water (not alcohol) and he didn’t punch me like I was an Aruban judge. Sidney was pleasant, receptive and engaging in conversation. Based upon last month’s reports from Texas, he isn’t like this all the time.

When I happened into Sidney Ponson, the New York Yankees, who had released Ponson 7 weeks earlier, were in the midst of losing the ALDS to the Detroit Tigers.

The Yankees did not need Sidney Ponson then and they do not need him now.

Brian Cashman made a statement for the future when did not trade Phil Hughes, Jeffrey Marquez, Dan McCutchen and Melky Cabrera for Johan Santana. It was the right way to go then, and after Chien-Ming Wang’s injury, it’s the right way to go now.

Then why sign Sidney Ponson to a minor league deal? It appears he improved his pitching to where he was 4-1, 3.88 ERA in Texas before he was released due to “disrespectful and adverse reactions to situations unbecoming of teammates.” Is that the type of attitude you want to show your young pitchers at Triple A? If the job is to build from within, then you need the young players to be given the opportunity to pitch. The young players are the Yankees’ future – not a 31-year-old Sidney Ponson.

It appears the Yankees are telling McCutchen, Marquez and Alan Horne – we do not think you are good enough, so we will sign a two-time DUI guy who has a history of putting himself over his team. As it is now, the Yanks don’t have enough innings for all their pitching prospects in Double and Triple A, because the Kei Igawa overreaction mistake is still pitching.

Instead of letting the future determine the Yankee season, Cashman is using another retread in the vein of coming up with “the next Aaron Small.”

Aaron Small is out of baseball now and Sidney Ponson should be, too.

With the Yankees experiencing a recent rash of injuries to their pitching staff, most recently, the disabling of Chien-Ming Wang, the Yankees became the most recent club willing to take a gamble on Sidney Ponson. The hope is that the 31-year-old right hander can put together the combination of consistency, health and stuff that enabled him to win 17 games in 2003. On Wednesday, Ponson was inked to a minor league contract and is scheduled to report to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre to begin his audition for the Bronx Bombers’ rotation.

Ponson began the 2008 season with the Texas Rangers’ Triple-A Affiliate before being recalled on April 26th. Ponson was immediately inserted into the Rangers rotation and, while inconsistent, contributed with four wins in nine starts. He was designated for assignment after three subpar starts between May 26 & June 4. In total, Ponson compiled a 4-1 record with a 3.88 ERA in nine starts spanning 55.7 innings.

The Yankees’ top starter in 2007, Wang was recently relegated to the Disabled List with a partially torn tendon in his right foot, leaving only Mike Mussina and Andy Pettitte as bona fide starters in the rotation. In recent weeks, the Yankees have also placed right handed starter Ian Kennedy and righty reliever Christ Britton on the DL and have dug deep into the organization’s depth chart by adding Billy Traber, Scott Patterson and Dan Giese to the roster.

This deep digging has caused Yankees GM Brian Cashman to explore options for adding depth, and that exploration led to Ponson. With a spattering of good starts in Arlington, Ponson impressed Cashman enough to get another shot at pitching in the Bigs again this season. This is Cashman’s second attempt at getting Ponson to perform in the Bronx, having signed Ponson in 2006 after he had been released by the St. Louis Cardinals. In ’06, the gamble didn’t pay off as Ponson compiled a 10.47 ERA in 16.1 innings with the Yankees in five games, three of which were starts.

The Yankees have decided to take a chance on 31-year-old oft-troubled righty Sidney Ponson.  Ponson was 4-1 with a 3.88 ERA this season with the Rangers in nine starts and 55.7 innings.

The Rangers released Ponson reportedly because of clashes with teammates and his manager and for a disturbance at a Florida hotel bar. 

Something else to keep in mind, though: Ponson gave up 15 runs in his final three starts with Texas.  He gave up four or more runs in six of his nine starts.  The games in which he pitched well were against Kansas City, Seattle and Minnesota.  He has yet to start a game this season against a team that currently ranks higher than sixth in its league in runs scored.  Ponson wasn’t fooling any hitters.  Opposing batters hit .307/.353/.429 against him so far this season. 

Call me a cynic but it’s hard to imagine the Rangers would have released him had he truly pitched like a guy who was 4-1 with a 3.88 ERA.  Now, the Yankees – a team that ranks eighth in both ERA and runs allowed and obviously desperate for pitching – have decided to take a chance on this troubled man who is really not that good a pitcher.

It’s a low-risk signing for Cashman and the Yankees.  With Wang, Kennedy and Hughes all injured, Cashman had to do something, if for no other reason but to show that he is trying something.  You throw a guy like that on to the Triple-A roster and hope he surprises everyone.  At the very least, the Yankees have a guy who can start the second game of a two-park doubleheader as he likely will next Friday against the Mets.  We’ll just have to wait and see if he lasts much longer after that.

Before I vent my unsolicited, unprovoked and just downright unnatural anger toward Washington General Manager Jim Bowden, I wanted to say this about the Mets situation:

Kudos to Mets GM Omar Minaya for being unabashedly weasel-like in his dismissal of Willie Randolph (and that’s sarcasm, folks). Well, I shouldn’t say that with certainty. After all, there is the scenario in which Minaya was ordered to handle the firing the way he did, and if that’s the case and Omar didn’t protest, then he’s gutless, not weasel-like. Either way, I imagine it will be hard for Omar to get another decent job in baseball after he gets fired this year.

Okay, on to Bowden, who makes Omar look pretty decent. If you have some extra time, do me a favor. Go to the Nationals page on Baseball Reference and tell me how many guys you would want on your team. I’ve given Giants GM Brian Sabean a bunch of crap for being incompetent (and he is), but at least that guy has Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain on the roster.

The Nationals? Look at some of the re-treads, personality-challenged and/or talent-challenged players taking space up the active roster:

• Felipe Lopez
• Wily Mo Pena
• Johnny Estrada
• Willie Harris
• Austin Kearns (hitting .187!)
• Aaron Boone (he’s gotten 135 at bats!)
• Elijah Dukes
• Ron Belliard
• Odalis Perez

That’s a lot of junk. A lot of junk. If you were starting a team, would you want any of those guys on your team?

So how many Nationals players would I want taking up space on my roster? How about just three:

Jon Rauch: He’s shown over the past four years that he’s a quality reliever, and this year he is showing talent as a closer. He’s just 29, so he should have some good life left in that arm.

Jesus Flores: The 23-year-old catcher has an OPS+ of 143 in 109 at bats this year. Pretty damn good. Of course, the Rule 5 pick from the Mets (good one, Omar) had an OPS+ of 78 last year in 180 at bats and was actually hitting just .153 in 59 AAA at bats before his call-up this year. But he’s shown enough to earn a roster spot for now, even if he’ll end up being just a back-up catcher. He does have the “We’re the Mets, and we think this guy is as bad as Brian Bannister and Jeff Keppinger” thing going for him.

Lastings Milledge: Another 23-year-old dumped by the Mets onto the Nationals, he has a line of just .254/.320/.369 (OPS+ of 82) this year. But he’s had success in the minors and has a bucketful of tools. And his development was hurt by Omar by premature call-ups. Why was Lastings playing in the Bigs at age 21?

What about Ryan Zimmerman and Chad Cordero? They fit nicely into my “It’s really weird they’re trending down at such a young age – better hurry up and deal them” category. Third baseman Zimmerman is decent, though overrated. He’s just 23, but his three year OPS+ trend of 114, 107 and 87 doesn’t inspire confidence. Same for the injured closer Cordero, whose batting average against increased from .198 to .215 to .260 from 2005 to 2007.

Sure, there are some spare parts on the Nationals’ roster that have some value (Christian Guzman, Nick Johnson – if healthy, Dmitri Young), but would you trade for them? Would you give up anything to get them? You shouldn’t. Perhaps that should be a new stat: % of roster deemed as having trade value. The Nationals would surely be at the bottom of the league in that stat.

While with the Reds, Jim Bowden earned the moniker “Trader Jim” for his liking of the trade route. For his contribution to the Nationals, Bowden deserves a new moniker – that of “Trash Collector.”

After two years of disappointment in Arizona, 25-year-old White Sox outfielder Carlos Quentin would appear to be realizing the potential he showed in the minors – where he produced a line of .313/.413/.527 in 379 games. In 240 at bats with the White Sox, Quentin has a line of .267/.376/.521 and is among the league leader in several categories:

• 8th in runs (44)
• 4th in home runs (16)
• 2nd in RBIs (55)
• 10th in slugging (.521)
• 10th in Adjusted OPS+

But wait – don’t get too excited.

While Quentin is having a very good year, he projects to topping out as just an average to possibly good player. Because he wasn’t well known in the American League to start of the season, Quentin got some good pitches to hit – or at least better than what he would have seen in the National League. The more exposure American League pitchers and scouts get to Quentin, the more they’ll identify his strengths and weaknesses; and they’ll adjust their attack plan accordingly. Quentin’s production will slow down, and looking at his monthly splits, we see this trend already occurring:

Long term, Quentin projects to be somewhere around the level of Twins outfielders Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer. If he continues to improve, he could max out at around Trot Nixon’s peak.

Bad Match-ups

Quentin will struggle with pitchers who can use in combination a 90+mph fastball and a good breaking pitch over the outer half of the plate. Quentin starts from a crouched position and many times raises his head and upper body up to hit the high pitch. This move creates a long swing and as a result he doesn’t drive it as much.

Another bad match-up for Quentin is a left-hander with a good change-up. When a pitcher pitches to contact, the goal is to make sure the batter doesn’t get good or “square” contact. A good change-up will be effective at keeping Quentin off balance and unable to make square contact because his stance has him so spread out.

Recommendation

If Quentin is on your team, try to trade him for a struggling veteran like Vladimir Guerrero or Chone Figgins. Or try to sell real high and get Carl Crawford; it can’t hurt to try. If you can’t trade him, sit him against lefties and watch him carefully against righties.

How can MLB call the schedule fair when the Yankees play Pittsburgh two years in a row? Why should the team with one of the lowest payrolls play the team with the highest in back to back years?

Maybe it’s because the schedule is made up in New York, by New Yorkers, who want to make it easier for their team.

The Red Sox play division leaders in Philadelphia and Arizona, and the Yankees play Pittsburgh and San Diego.

Why should the Yankees play the Mets six times every year? The Giants and Jets don’t play each other extra times.

Baseball needs a balanced schedule, with 15 teams in each league.

I like to think of the NBA as the warm-up act for MLB. Major sports’ longest season is finally over (although I drive my daughter to soccer 10 months a year!), and for the next few weeks baseball has the stage to itself (at least until the NFL opens up their sweat camps).

But congratulations are due to the NBA’s marquee franchise, the Boston Celtics, as they get to hang their 17th championship banner. Seventeen is a lot in any sport, and so here is a recounting of the years the Boston Celtics won their championships and the baseball champions of that year as well.

1957

• The Celtics defeated the St. Louis Hawks in double overtime in Game 7.
• The Milwaukee Braves defeated the Yankees in seven games. Lew Burdette was the winning pitcher in Games 2, 5 and 7.

1959

• The Celtics swept the Lakers, the Minnesota Lakers (yeah, that’s how they got their name).
• The Dodgers won their first World Championship in Los Angeles defeating the White Sox in six games. Reliever Larry Sherry was MVP. Other than big Ted, the ChiSox were “Klu”-less.

1960

• It was the Celtics over the Hawks in Game 7 again. In the finale, Bill Russell pulled down 35 rebounds.
• Was it the greatest walkoff ever? Jim Kaplan thinks so. Bill Mazeroski in the bottom of the 9th in Game 7 homers and the Pittsburgh Pirates defeat the New York Yankees, despite being outscored 55-27.

1961

• Sam Jones hit a basket with two seconds remaining and the Celtics held on to win Game 7, 109-107, over the Philadelphia Warriors led by Wilt Chamberlain. Chamberlain had averaged 50.4 points and 25.7 rebounds for the Philadelphia Warriors that year.
• Was this the greatest Yankee team ever? The New Yorkers topped the Cincinnati Redlegs in five games. Whitey Ford was the MVP with two wins and an ERA of 0.00.

1962

• After the Celts topped the now Los Angeles Lakers in OT in Game 7, Boston had now won a record four straight championships and five in the previous six seasons.
• This was the greatest walkoff Series that didn’t happen. Willie McCovey left the tying and winning runs in scoring position when he lined out to Bobby Richardson to end the 1-0 Game 7. The Yanks topped the San Francisco Giants. Ralph Terry, who gave up Mazeroski’s homer, was the Game 7 winner and Series MVP.

1963

• Boston over LA in six in Cousy’s last season.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers swept the Yanks with one of the greatest exhibitions of pitching ever. In the four games they outscored the Yanks, 12-4.

1964

• The Celts again defeating Wilt Chamberlain and the San Francisco Warriors in the title series.
• This was the end for the Yankees in this era. The Cardinals took the Series in seven games. Following the Series, the Yanks fired their manager, Yogi Berra, and hired the Cardinals’ manager Johnny Keane. It was not a keen idea.

1965

• The Celtics earned their seventh consecutive championship defeating the Lakers in five.
• Another great World Series, another Dodgers win, another great performance by Series MVP Sandy Koufax. LA won in seven over the Minnesota Twins. Koufax was 2-1 in the Series with an ERA of 0.38.

1966

• The Celtics again over the Lakers, in seven games this time. It was Red Auerbach’s grand finale.
• The Dodgers got a dose of their own medicine being swept by the Baltimore Orioles, whose pitching only permitted two runs in Game 1 and none after that.

1968

• Once again the Celtics beat the Los Angeles Lakers in six games. Boston captured its ninth title in 10 years. Bill Russell was at the helm.
• Another great Series saw the Detroit Tigers win in seven over the Cardinals. Mickey Lolich won three games for Detroit, throwing three complete games and allowing only five earned runs.

1969

• In Game 7, played at The Forum in Los Angeles, the Celtics built a 17-point fourth-quarter lead, then held off a Lakers rally to win the championship by two points.
• The Amazin’ Mets defeated the Orioles in five games. The Mets starters were Seaver, Koosman and Gentry and a guy by the name of Nolan Ryan who pitched relief. The great Donn Clendenon was the MVP hitting .357 with three homers.

1974

• Celtics faced off against Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and the Milwaukee Bucks. But Dave Cowens was the hero in Game 7, scoring 28 points as the Celtics brought the title back to Boston for the first time in five years.
• This all-California Series saw the Oakland A’s top the LA Dodgers in five games. Rollie Fingers won one game and saved two others to become the MVP.

1976

• Boston won their 13th NBA championship defeating the Phoenix Suns in six games. Game 5 went to three overtimes.
• The Spirit of ’76 was exemplified by the Reds as they swept the Yankees. Johnny Bench led the Big Red Machine hitting .533 with two homers and six ribbies. Bench was one of seven Reds to hit over .300 in the Series.

1981

• Boston won the series 4 games to 2 over the Houston Rockets. Cedric Maxwell was the MVP helped by three guys named, Bird, McHale and Parish.
• The Dodgers defeated the Yankees in six games and they shared the MVP among three of the victors. Ron Cey, who hit .350; Pedro Guerrero who had two homers and seven RBI; and Steve Yeager, who had two homers were the co-winners.

1984

• The Big Three led the Celts to a seven game win, once again over the Lakers.
• This was a five-gamer with the Tigers overwhelming the Padres. Alan Trammell was the MVP hitting .450 with a pair of homers.

1986

• Despite Houston’s “Twin Towers,” Hakeem Olajuwon and Ralph Sampson, Boston took the series in six games. It was the club’s 16th NBA title. In his first year with the Celtics, Bill Walton won the NBA Sixth Man Award.
• It was so close to being a dual Boston championship but then came Game 6 and Calvin Schiraldi and Bob Stanley whose gaffes were represented by Bill Buckner. It was the Mets in seven. I can still picture Jesse Orosco celebrating.

2008

• After a long hiatus, it was Boston vs. LA in the finals and the result was so very familiar to Celtics fans as they won in six games. The 39-point margin in the finale surpassed the NBA record set by the Celtics in a 129-96 rout of the Lakers in Game 5 of the 1965 Finals. The Big Three this season (Kevin Garnett, Series MVP Paul Pierce and Ray Allen) combined for 69 points, 21 rebounds, 16 assists and eight steals.
• As for baseball? The season is still young and now it’s time for center stage.

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide. Autographed first editions are available by contacting, Bill@billy-ball.com or order directly from Acta Sports, http://www.actasports.com/detail.html?&id=3427 or from your favorite bookstore.

There are six retired jersey numbers on the Braves upper outfield wall at Turner Memorial Stadium.

• First in our hearts and minds is 3 – what Dale Murphy wore from 1976-1990.
• The winningest left-handed pitcher of all time, Warren Spahn, wore 21 for 356 of his 363 career victories.
• 42 is Jackie Robinson’s number, retired by every major league team in 1997.
• 44 belongs to “The People’s Home Run King” – Hank Aaron.
• Hall of Fame knuckler Phil Niekro wore 35 during his career with the Braves.

But who wore number 41? Ask the average modern Braves fan, and they probably couldn’t tell you.

The answer is Eddie Mathews – the most prolific Braves player ever, and the face of the franchise for the 50’s and early 60’s. He, of whom Ty Cobb once said, “I’ve only known three or four perfect swings in my time. This lad has one of them.”

Mathews is the only man to have played for the Braves in all three of their homes: Boston, Milwaukee and Atlanta. Add to that the three seasons he managed the team (72-74) and you would be hard-pressed to find someone who had more Braves-blue running through his veins.

Growing up in Southern California, Mathews was a natural athlete and had to choose between college football scholarships and being drafted by the Braves. Fortunately for us, he signed with the Braves on the night of his high school graduation in 1949.

In a strange twist, Mathews spent most of his minor league time in Atlanta, before the Braves moved there from Milwaukee. The Atlanta Crackers were the popular and successful minor league team that was a farm affiliate of the Boston/Milwaukee Braves from 1950-1958, and in their last season of 1965, they had the same relationship with the Atlanta Braves. (Incidentally, “Cracker” was not a derogatory or even racially descriptive term at the time, but rather a post-Civil War phrase applied to Georgians).

Mathews sped through the minors and claimed the starting third base role in the Braves’ last year in Boston – 1952. The move to Brew City suited him just fine, as he hit 47 long balls and captured the Home Run Crown in 1953. This auspicious beginning of his career attracted so much attention that he was selected for the cover of the first issue of a new magazine. That new magazine was called Sports Illustrated.

And it wouldn’t be his last time on the cover.

Mathews’ career reached its height in 1957 as he helped lead the Braves to their first world championship since 1914. When students of the game discuss all-time greatest third basemen, his name is always mentioned. And his defensive prowess was only matched by his raw power behind the plate.

In fact, Between 1954 and 1966 he and Braves teammate Hank Aaron hit 863 home runs (Aaron 442, Mathews 421), moving ahead of the Yankees duo of Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig as the all-time leaders in major league history.

Mathews finished his Braves career in 1966, the team’s first season in Atlanta, and wept the day he was informed he was to be traded. Prior to the move to Atlanta, he and Hank Aaron served as goodwill ambassadors/public relations men, making many public appearances in Atlanta, paving the way for the franchise move—the first ever professional franchise move to that region of the country.

Interestingly, the Braves were to move in 1965, but a Milwaukee car salesman named Bud Selig helped enact a court injunction that delayed the move for a year.

Mathews played the 1967 season for the Astros and then the championship-winning 1968 Tigers.

Elected to Cooperstown as a first-ballot entry in 1978, he was later ranked number 63 on The Sporting News list of Baseball’s Greatest Players, and he was nominated as a finalist for the Major League Baseball All-Century Team.

None too shabby.

Besides the retired jersey section, Mathews’ very visage is displayed on the outfield wall at the stadium. He looks like an intense young man, blessed with talent and proud to wear the uniform. And if anybody deserves to be a permanent part of a Braves stadium, it’s Eddie.

Mathews Career Numbers and Ranks

• 2,391 games played (77th all-time)
• 1,509 runs (61st)
• 4,349 total bases (47th)
• 512 home runs (20th)
• 1,453 RBIs (53rd)
• 1,444 walks (21st)
• 1,487 strikeouts (48th)
• 143 adjusted OPS+ (57th)
• 1,716 runs created (41st)
• 547 adjusted batting runs (31st)
• 53.5 batting wins (29th)

Sometimes in life things just don’t work out the way you’d hoped.  Sometimes, two great people can’t stay married, but they are still great people.  Sometimes, two exceptionally talented entrepreneurs reach an impasse and have to dissolve a business ventures, but they remain talented entrepreneurs.

For fans of Willie Randolph, the first time manager’s dismissal might seem to be a failure by the one-time Yankee great to deliver in his new baseball role.  Having been a integral part of Yankee teams throughout his playing career and then as a member of Joe Torre’s coaching staff during a time of Yankee glory, Randolph had the weight of lofty expectations. Fans expected him to step to the helm as the Mets manager and become the glue that led the Mets to their first world championship since 1986.  It didn’t happen in the skipper’s two plus seasons managing the club and so the skeptics will have their say.

But just like a failed marriage between two good people, the failure of Randolph’s managerial stint and his ability to mesh with the Mets’ talent and chemistry doesn’t spell failure of either the team or of Randolph.

The Yankee teams in which Willie understudied Joe Torre were teams filled with energy and tenacity.  Torre’s calm, composed and deflecting demeanor offered a necessary contrast that was a great compass in keeping the teams high’s from reaching too high and their lows from dipping too low.  Randolph’s calm and composed demeanor, one that clearly parallels Torre’s, has been correlated by his critics to a lack of passion.

The reality is that Randolph’s make-up simply didn’t match up with what the Mets have needed.  Right now, the Mets lack the tenacity and fire that the Yankees teams of the late 90’s and early 00’s had plenty of.  The current Mets need to get that energy from an energetic and outwardly passionate manager … if only Billy Martin were around. Boy, what he could do for this Mets club.

The mismatch between the Mets and Willie Randolph should be nothing more than a speed bump in what will be a brilliant managerial career.  In 15 years, Randolph’s name will be used in the same sentence as the names LaRussa and Torre when speaking about his track record and successes as a big league skipper.

Randolph fans needn’t feel let down, nor should Mets fans.  Sometimes, a front office takes a chance and the magic doesn’t happen.  With two thirds of the season to go, Mets fans can hope that the new chemistry the team is sure to be experimenting with under Jerry Manuel’s guidance may generate that spark.  With decades of managing in front of him, Randolph can expect the same for himself in the seasons ahead. 

“Try not to become a man of success but rather to become a man of value.” – Albert Einstein

It has been said on many different occasions by many different people that Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa is a baseball savant. In his 1990 book, “Men At Work: the Craft of Baseball”, George Will breaks down the game through the mind of some of baseball’s truly great thinkers, including, you guessed it, Tony LaRussa, whom Will goes out of his way to call a genius. Some 15 years later, Buzz Bissinger would take his turn at praising LaRussa’s baseball I.Q., this time in his 2006 bestseller “Three Nights in August.”

No manager achieves success alone, and fewer still achieve the kind of success that has come the way of one Anthony LaRussa, Jr. So what is it that has allowed LaRussa to become arguably the greatest manager of all time? What is his edge? Is it his old school approach mixed with new school thought? Is it a dynamic sense of in-game understanding seldom seen by lesser managers? Or is it something else all together?

Allow me to pull back the curtain to expose the wizard.

Allow me to introduce you to the unheralded genius of Dave Duncan.

Duncan has been by LaRussa’s side through thick and thin for the better part of 25 years, coming on board as LaRussa’s pitching coach with the White Sox in 1982. It was the very next year, 1983, that saw the beginning of a trend. It saw the Tony LaRussa helmed and the Dave Duncan pitching coached White Sox not only win the American League West, but one of their staff, La Marr Hoyt, bring home the AL Cy Young Award. Hoyt went 24-10 with only 31 walks in 260 innings pitched. Hoyt’s teammate Richard Dotson finished 4th in the voting that same year, going 22-7 with a 3.23 ERA. Both Hoyt and Dotson had success while pitching under Duncan but faltered under other leadership. This would be the modus operandi of a Dave Duncan lead pitching staff for years to come.

What started in Chicago followed them to Oakland and is now residing in St. Louis. The Duncan “Plan”, if you want to call it that, is simple: take journeyman and under-achieving hurlers and turn them into world beaters by pressing just the right set of buttons, mentally and physically. One might call this type of action a Midas Touch. At first glance, it would seem like an impossible objective to achieve. To his credit, most likely through the use of magic elixirs, Druid incantations, or ancient Mayan prayer dances, Dave Duncan has figured out how to do this. The proof is in the statistical pudding. Here are a few examples of the good:

Richard Dotson, White Sox: Under Dave Duncan he was 70-55. Under other pitching coaches he was 49-66.

Storm Davis, Athletics: Under Duncan, 35-14 with a career high in strikeouts in 1988. The rest of his career with Baltimore, San Diego, Kansas City and Detroit, Davis was 78-82.

Bob Welch, Athletics: A semi-success before coming to Oakland and Duncan, Welch was 115-86 for the first ten years of his career with the Dodgers. When he joined the A’s, and Duncan and LaRussa, he became phenomenal, going 96-60, pitching the three best seasons of his career in Oakland culminating in 1990 when he won 27 games – the most since Denny McClain’s 31 in 1968 – and the American League Cy Young Award.

Mike Moore, Athletics: While in Oakland he was 66-46, winning a career high 19 games in 1989 while setting a career low in ERA with 2.61 and making his only All Star Game appearance. The rest of his career, in Seattle and Detroit, he was 95-130.

Matt Morris, Cardinals: Morris is a prime example of what Duncan can do for a pitcher. From his first day in the big leagues through 2005, Dave Duncan was Matt Morris’ pitching coach. During that span Matty Mo went 101-62, never having a losing season. From 2006 through 2008 Morris went 20-30 with the Giants and Pirates and has since retired from baseball.

Kent Bottenfield, Cardinals: While in St. Louis in 1999 Bottenfield went 18-7 with a career high in strikeouts. Bottenfield’s overall career record was 46-49.

Woody Williams, Cardinals: In 3.5 seasons with the Cardinals, and Duncan and LaRussa, Williams was 45-22, including a 7-1, 2.28 ERA half season in 2001. For the rest of his career Williams is 87-94.

Chris Carpenter, Cardinals: Prior to joining the Duncan/LaRussa lead Cardinals, Carpenter was 49-40 with Toronto. Since arriving in Missouri Carpenter is 51-19, winning the 2005 National League Cy Young Award and setting single season bests in wins, ERA, K’s and innings pitched. Carpenter finished third in the Cy Young balloting just one year later.

Jeff Suppan, Cardinals: While pitching in Boston, KC, Arizona, and Pittsburgh and currently in Milwaukee, Suppan’s record is a cumulative 79-98. In three years in St. Louis with Duncan guiding the way he was 44-26 with his two lowest single season ERA’s. He was also the NLCS MVP in 2006.

Jeff Weaver, Cardinals: A problem case everywhere he has pitched throughout his career, Weaver was sent to the Cards by the Angels for minor leaguer Terry Evans. Weaver went on to dominate in the 2006 playoffs, pitching 29 and 2/3rd innings, winning five games with an ERA under 3.00 and surrendering only nine walks and striking out 19. Weaver dominated game 5 of the 2006 World Series as the Cardinals went on to their 10th World Championship. Since then Weaver has moved on to Seattle and back to his under-achieving ways, going 7-13 for the Mariners in 2007.

And those were merely the good examples. Let’s move on to the great.

Dave Stewart, Athletics: Before coming to Oakland in 1986, Dave Stewart had an explosive arm and little else going for him. He was used as both a starter and a middle reliever with little success and flashes of untapped potential with the Dodgers, Rangers and Phillies from 1981-1985. With the A’s, and Dave Duncan whispering the magic words in his ear, Stewart became a pitching God, winning 20 or more games in every season from 1987 to 1990. While in Oakland, Stewart was 110-73. For the rest of his career he was 58-56. He was the 1989 World Series MVP and the 1990 ALCS MVP.

Dennis Eckersley, Athletics and Cardinals: Eck is the poster child for what Dave Duncan can do for a pitcher whose career is not as good as it should be. Eckersley was a solid pitcher from 1975-1986, compiling a 159-130 record for the Indians, Red Sox and Cubbies. He was traded to the A’s for three minor leaguers on April 3rd, 1987. Duncan and LaRussa immediately converted Eckersley into their closer and the rest is history. Eck would go on to save 386 games for A’s and Cardinals from 1987 to 1997. His career ERA as a starter was 3.67. His career ERA for Duncan and LaRussa as a closer was 2.96. He was the 1992 American League MVP and Cy Young Award winner. In 2004, Dennis Eckersley, largely because of the foresight of Dave Duncan, was elected to Cooperstown.

Between 1983 and 2006, ten different pitchers received votes for the Cy Young Award while pitching under Dave Duncan. All of those who received votes WERE NOT, until Dave Duncan became their pitching coach, Cy Young caliber pitchers.

What all of these men, as well as many others who have pitched for Dave Duncan over the years, have in common is, for whatever the reason, they pitched their best for him. Dave Duncan turned each of these men into pitchers to be reckoned with. There has never been a Roger Clemens, or a Randy Johnson or Greg Maddux on a Dave Duncan led staff. He takes what he is given and turns it into the closest thing resembling a Clemens or Johnson or Maddux as possible. And he’s done it with outstanding results. I don’t believe there is another pitching coach alive who can boast of that claim.

Look at the 2008 St. Louis Cardinals. As of this writing the Cards are 42-29, largely because of a massively over-achieving pitching staff lead by Kyle Lohse, Braden Looper, Todd Wellemeyer and, of course, Dave Duncan.

Dave Duncan is Tony LaRussa’s right hand man. He is the Pippen to LaRussa’s Jordan. Tony LaRussa has become arguably the greatest manager to ever live because he was wise enough to see what Dave Duncan can bring to the table. We may never know what the real secret to their success is. How do they bring out the Pedro Martinez hidden in the Pedro Astacios of the world? Was it a deal with the devil? Is there a magic lamp hidden in the bullpen in Busch Stadium with some wishes left in it?

Regardless of how it was achieved, the next time you hear someone talk about the greatness of Tony LaRussa, jump in and remind them that Dave Duncan is responsible for a great deal of that success, even if he is using Brazilian voodoo rituals and stolen leprechaun gold to pull it off.

Editor’s Note: Join us at 10PM EST Tuesday night for a live chat during the Mets-Angels game to discuss Randolph’s firing and the future of the Mets: http://www.dugoutcentral.com/chat/chat.php?chatID=25  

It’s tough being a Mets’ fan.

I went to sleep around 1:30 A.M. on Tuesday morning, with a felling of optimism because the Mets had won a game against the Angels in which they weren’t favored to win. Well I’m thinking to myself, maybe they can stabilize this thing and maybe they can get someone to play leftfield and when Church comes back, maybe they can make a push to the wild card.

Then when I turned on the radio Tuesday morning, I heard that Willie Randolph had been fired at 3:00 A.M Eastern daylight time. The Mets organization has done some gutless and classless things in their history, but this has to go down as one of the worst.

Randolph was allowed to wander around the Mets clubhouse with the sword of Damocles sitting above his head for the last two weeks. Instead of making a decision one way or another, they let Randolph meet with the media every day and answer silly questions on his employment status.

Then when it seams that Willie is safe, that he has escaped the chopping block, they let him fly 3,000 miles away, and wait until the end of the game, and then fire him at 3:00 A.M. Eastern time so that the New York Papers wouldn’t be able to publish this story.

It’s easy to see that this decision was made a few days ago. They waited until the Mets were on the West Coast to make this announcement. They waited until 3:00 a.m. to make the announcement so that the New York papers wouldn’t have time to print this story. They waited until Mike Pelfrey was starting a game presuming he would lose (they were wrong). Also, they could let the new manager take over the team on Tuesday when Johan Santana was starting. How convenient.

I’ve always been of the opinion that field managers get too much credit when they win and receive too much blame when the team struggles. Baseball managers pretty much all follow the same line of strategy on the field. Baseball for a number of reasons is much less innovative than football or basketball, so it’s not like a baseball manager will come up with some new radical defensive alignment or offensive strategy.

Take Joe Torre. He managed for 15 years with only one playoff appearance (1982 N.L. west division) under his belt. Then he manages the Yankees and all of as sudden he’s a genius?

Here are a couple of points in defense of Willie Randolph:

• Is it Willie’s fault that Ryan Church was allowed to fly to Colorado after he had his second concussion in three months?
• Is it Willie’s fault that Carlos Delgado has the second lowest OPS+ (93) of any starting first basemen in the National League?
• Is it Willie’s fault that his catcher has an OPS+ of 75?
• Did Willie sign a 32-year-old second basemen with bad knees to a 4-year/$24M contract?
• Did Willie sign a 41-year-old left fielder to an $8M contract – someone who never plays?
• Was it Willie’s fault that his options for left and right field were Endy Chavez (OPS+ of 43), Marlon Anderson (32), and Fernando Tatis (67)?
• Did Willie Randolph sign Pedro Martinez to a four-year/$45M contract?
• Was it Willie’s fault that Pedro was out for the first two months of the season?
• Was it Willie’s fault that Oliver Perez has an ERA+ of 81?
• Was it Willie’s fault that Mike Pelfrey has an ERA+ of 87?
• Was it Willie’s fault that Aaron Heilman has an ERA+ of 72?
• Was it Willie’s fault that the Mets had the third oldest batter’s age and the oldest pitcher’s age in 2007?

How is he supposed to win games with Delgado, Chavez, Anderson, Schneider and the Pitcher batting five through nine?

I’ve never quite understood why the Manager gets the lion share of the blame when a team struggles. The General Manager signs the players, the ownership approved the signings, and the players play the game. If anything, the field manager is probably one of the least responsible parties for the success or failure of a club.

Randolph wasn’t perfect. He seemed unable to trust young players. Lastings Milledge never seemed to get as much trust and playing time as a Marlon Anderson or Damion Easley. Philip Humber was left to waste unused during the Mets collapse last year. He continually went back to Guillermo Mota last year even though he finished the season with a 5.77 ERA.

I think Minaya and Bernazard should be fired at the end of the year and let’s start fresh next year.

Like I said, “It’s tough being a Mets fan”.

Editor’s Note: Join us at 10PM EST Tuesday night for a live chat during the Mets-Angels game to discuss Randolph’s firing and the future of the Mets: http://www.dugoutcentral.com/chat/chat.php?chatID=25 

Waiting for Willie Randolph to finally be asked to leave as manager of the New York Mets has been like waiting for Hillary Clinton to finally be asked to leave the Democratic race for president. It really got to the point where I started to refer to Randolph as “Willary.”

Well, last night Willie finally got the axe, the axe, the axe, and like everything the Mets have done in this agonizing process, they even made the firing awkward and painful. The Supreme Court would be within its purview to regard this as cruel and unusual punishment.

The Mets completed a homestand on Sunday, defeating the Texas Rangers in the second game of a doubleheader (ahh, the joys of interleague play). They then headed out to Anaheim to play the Angels. They then defeated the Angels, 9-6 last night. And no, if you thought you missed the firing, you didn’t.

Only after the Mets cross-country trip, only after their victory over the AL West leading Angels, only then did GM Omar Minaya (who is more than a little complicit in the horrible make-up of this team) call Randolph in and fire him. The time on the press announcement that I received says “3:14 AM.”

Buster Olney of ESPN.com on his blog writes that earlier on Monday, Minaya and his assistant, Tony Bernazard, walked around the lobby of the team hotel “like grim reapers.” He adds, “And after weeks of leak-fed speculation and board room back-stabbing and indecision, they did their bidding, fired manager Willie Randolph, pitching coach Rick Peterson and first-base coach Tom Nieto.”

Even the writers of “The Sopranos” could not have invented a more recklessly handled hit.”

Mike Vaccaro of the New York Post called it an “Amazin’ Act of Cowardice.” He writes, “What a crowd, these bums are, all of them, from the Wilpons at the top to Omar Minaya down below, all of them who conspired to botch this firing worse than any firing has ever been botched. Ever. You wouldn’t trust these guys to run a 7-11, let alone a National League baseball team. What a joke. What a cowardly, dastardly joke.

A midnight massacre.

A 3 a.m. thrashing.

Disgraceful. Utterly, completely, disgraceful.”

He’s right, well all except the part of dissin’ 7-11.

Jim Baumbach of Newsday is equally disgusted with the ways this was handled and speculates about the Mets distorted rationale for the cowardly act, “Here’s the sick part: By announcing at 3 a.m., the Mets undoubtedly figured they’d just miss the last deadlines for New York City newspapers, meaning there would be another 24 hours before the next day’s newspaper is published. So this way maybe something else can happen in the world and they won’t have to see their manager’s firing plastered all over the back pages, because it’s day-old news.”

Please understand that nobody is disagreeing with the decision to fire Randolph. Even though Randolph, the 18th manager in the team’s history (it began as a joke with Casey Stengel at the helm), had the second best winning percentage in franchise history (Randolph was 302-253 .544, only Davey Johnson’s .588 was better), he was clearly struggling to motivate his team. And everyone, including the managers themselves, understand that managers are hired to be fired and after the great collapse of ’07 and the lackluster play this season, Randolph was ripe, in fact, over-ripe. It’s just the way this was handled that makes it so transparent that the problems that exist with the New York Mets run from the field upward, way past the manager. But as everyone knows, you can’t fire the players and you can’t fire the owners.

So good luck to bench coach Jerry Manuel who has been named the team’s interim manager, and to Ken Oberkfell, Dan Warthen and Luis Aguayo, who will join the staff to replace pitching coach Rick Peterson and first base coach Tom Nieto, who were also let go in the wee hours of the night. You guys are going to need it. This Mets team might respond to Manuel and, in this parity season, the Mets are still only 6.5 games out in the NL East and only 7 games back in the Wild Card hunt, this team can still make some noise.

We know the Mets certainly have the talent to be in first place, but the only thing this team leads the league in is in lack of class.

Good luck, Willary.

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide. Autographed first editions are available by contacting, Bill@billy-ball.com or order directly from Acta Sports, http://www.actasports.com/detail.html?&id=3427 or from your favorite bookstore.

Okay, that headline isn’t based on fact; it’s based on logic.

“High-ranking, unnamed sources” haven’t told me current Red Sox Vice President Ben Cherington is going to be the next Mariners General Manager. Ben didn’t call me, nor did a friend who saw Ben in the airport headed out west. They don’t have to. I know Cherington will be the next Mariners’ GM because it just makes sense.

If you don’t want the details about why, just read this next paragraph and stop.

The Mariners haven’t been able to build an organization. But that I mean creating the systems and processes that catalyze player development and enable good decision-making. Four teams have shown this talent: Boston, Arizona, New York (the Yankees, of course – but this will only continue with Cashman on board) and the Angels. Arizona’s GM came from the Boston organization. Cherington, despite being just 34 has 10 years of experience with the Sox. Cherington’s boss, Theo Epstein, is also 34, so Cherington isn’t going to get a promotion anytime soon. So assuming Cherington wants to ascend the baseball management ladder, he’ll want to move on at some point. And when better to leave when at a high point? And despite their struggles this year, Seattle is a good opportunity: good stadium, deep pocketed owners and King Felix.

You can sign off now, or read more on Bavasi’s inability to create an effective organization.

Here is the team’s record during Bavasi’s tenure:

Actually, if you remove 2008, the trend is an impressively positive one, giving the impression that Bavasi was building an effective organization like the Red Sox and Diamondbacks have done. But hold on a minute! It’s not true.

Rather than being a young team that is maturing, as the team’s performance from 2004 to 2008 would indicate, today’s Mariners are largely devoid of players that have value over the next three to five years. There’s no influx of young talent that is the hallmark of a well-run team. Throw in poor decision-making in trades and free agent signings, and you have the complete troika of poor baseball management.

A quick look at the roster Bavasi constructed shows that the Mariners don’t have a chance to compete over the next couple of years and need to rebuild

• Catcher – Kenji Johjima: Extending a 32-year-old, .303 slugging catcher for 3-years, $24M was gross mismanagement. Why, Bill? Why?
• 1B – Richie Sexson: The 33-year-old is doing his best Dave Kingman imitation, hitting a combined .210 in 2007 and 2008; Bavasi’s 4-year, $50M deal with Sexson was another strike against him.
• 2B – Jose Lopez: A decent, but not good second baseman; with a terrible on-base percentage (.308), the 24-year-old is better as a fantasy player
• 3B – Adrian Beltre: The poster child for peaking in a walk year. Take out his 2004, and he is what he is: .260/.320/.430. Not what you want for 5-years, $64M. Another strike.
• SS – Yuniesky Betancourt: An average shortstop, both offensively and defensively. He’s not a concern.
• LF – Raul Ibanez: The 36-year-old is a good if unspectacular producer, though he is slumping a bit this year with a 109 OPS+ after 125 and 121 the past two years. Given the Mariners’ need to re-build, Ibanez offers the most value to a contender and should be the first person the new GM looks to deal.
• CF – Ichiro Suzuki: Not to re-hash the discussion, but Ichiro is overrated as a player. But he’s a money-making machine and is here to stay.
• RF – Wladimir Balentien: The 23-year-old is hitting just .196, but he’s had some nice seasons in the minors and deserves a chance to play in the majors this year. He has growth potential, at least, which no one else on this list has.
• DH – Jose Vidro. The 33-year-old is a terrible player now, especially for a DH. A 62 OPS+ is a waste of a roster space. Jeff Clement needs to be the full-time DH. Well, he needs to be the catcher, but Bavasi just signed Johjima to that extension. Clement like Vidro has upside.

So of the 10 main offensive assets collected by Bavasi, two have upside and the remaining eight are what they are. That’s not a good sign for a last-place team.

As for the starting rotation:

• Carlos Silva: If a guy isn’t good enough to get drafted in fantasy leagues, he’s probably not worth $48M over 4 years. I’m just saying. Shouldn’t that be a stat available to GM’s who are contemplating a free agent signing: % ownership in Yahoo! Leagues? Another big strike for Bavasi. Here’s advice offered to GMs about Silva in the offseason. Bavasi didn’t listen.
• Felix Hernandez: A stud, plain and simple. The Mariner’s biggest asset, short and long-term.
• Miguel Batista: A league-average pitcher who had a good year last year and is atrocious this year (6.09 ERA). He’s a good #4 starter or great #5 starter who you don’t want pitching in the post-season. That 1.481 career WHIP and low strikeout rate scare the hell out of me. Batista is not a building block.
• Jarrod Washburn: See Batista, Miguel.
• Erik Bedard: Oops. I was expecting a big year from Bedard, but instead his ERA is up a full run and his walk rate is up 50%. Of the players Bavasi gave up for him, George Sherrill has 22 saves, Adam Jones is not unexpectedly struggling in center and the three young minor league pitchers are doing okay to good. This is a trade to make to put a team over the top and it looks like Bavasi thought this described his team. He was wrong.

As for the bullpen, Putz is struggling, but should do better. And Bavasi has accumulated some good arms in Brandon Morrow and Ryan Rowland-Smith.

So at the conclusion of the Bill Bavasi tenure, the Mariners are left with:

• Four pieces to build around: Hernandez, Ichiro, Putz and Morrow, with Clement being a potential fifth
• Some good trade pieces: Bedard and Ibanez
• A lot of junk: Johjima, Sexson, Vidro, Silva and Washburn.
• A depleted minor league system

That’s not a recipe for success, either in the short or long-term, and it’s why Bavasi got fired. It’s also why Seattle should strongly consider hiring Ben Cherington or possibly Red Sox Assistant General Manager Jed Hoyer. Both have been with the Sox long enough to know how to build an organization the right way. Look at how former Red Sox assistant General Manager Josh Byrnes has worked out for Arizona.

Rent-A-Wells

Well, it appears that Chien-Ming Wang may be gone for the season, and the question is what the Yankees will do for a replacement. Losing an ace to injury is like losing the family car to an accident: finding an affordable replacement is never easy. You don’t want to spend a fortune, but you still need something to get you from here to there and back. That’s the concept behind Rent-a-Wreck, the neighborhood car rental company. It’s a mean of renting a car that’s not exactly perfect.

That got me thinking of what the pitching equivalent can be. How can the Yankees “rent” a pitcher who can, hopefully get them successfully through the season? That led to think that perhaps the solution is “Rent-a-Wells,” bringing back David Wells to see if he has anything left.

Like the cars, anybody who has ever read anything about David Wells knows that he is far from perfect. Yet just over 10 years ago, for one game, he was. On May 17, 1998, just three days shy of his 35th birthday, facing the Minnesota Twins, Wells achieved perfection.

There was a crowd of 49,820 at Yankee Stadium that day, most looking forward to receiving a free Beanie Baby. However they ended up seeing the 13th perfect game in modern major league history as the Yankees beat the Twins 4-0. The last perfect game at Yankee Stadium had been thrown by Don Larsen. Larsen and Wells coincidentally both attended Point Loma High School in San Diego.

Wells struck out 11 and was dominant that night. The Yankees fielders made no exceptionally tough plays. Bernie Williams had three hits including a home run. Wells (5-1) went to a three-ball count on four batters, coming back from a 3-0 on Matt Lawton in the 4th.

For the record, MSG Network announcers Jim Kaat and Ken Singleton from the 6th inning on, uttered the words ”perfect,” ”perfect game” or ”no-hitter” 28 times. Five times in the 8th and 9th innings, a camera zoomed in on the outfield scoreboard to show the Twins’ 0-0-0 line. Twenty times while the Yankees were at bat in the 7th and 8th innings, the camera found Wells in the dugout.

Bob Wolff, who called the last four and a half innings of Don Larsen’s World Series perfect game in 1956, backed the decision by MSG Network’s Ken Singleton and Jim Kaat to speak openly about the perfect game and not hide behind language. Wolff recalled the reaction to Red Barber’s letting the obvious cat out of the bag during a no-hitter. “A cascade of mail came in criticizing him, but he said he was being an honest reporter,’” Wolff said. For the Larsen game, Wolff used his language carefully, conveying what was happening without saying the magic words.

“I watched the last three innings, and I was excited as if I were calling it myself,” Wolff said. “In both cases, all of a sudden, you see a pitcher in so much command, he makes it look easy. Larsen had a lot of easy ground balls and one tough flyout to Mantle. Wells was just breezing along, like Larsen.” “When I was watching Wells, I wasn’t so concerned about him losing the no-hitter as I was about the perfect game. When he got behind a few hitters, I was hoping he wouldn’t be so fine and walk anybody.”

Wells fell behind eight of the last nine batters he faced, including Paul Molitor. “I had a pretty good at-bat working,” the 21-year veteran Molitor said. “I laid off some close pitches. We got to 3-1. I was taking because we were down, 2-0, at the time. I was trying not to concern myself with the no-hitter. I figured if I got on base, we’d get the tying run to the plate.”

Wells had thrown two curveballs and two fastballs in getting to 3-1. On the fifth pitch, Molitor said, ”he painted me a good fastball away.” Tim McClelland, the plate umpire, called the pitch strike two even though Molitor said it was “very similar” to the third pitch Wells had thrown him, which McClelland called a ball.

But now it was 3-2, and Wells had another chance to give up his perfection. “He came back with another pitch out there that might have been borderline,” Molitor said. But Molitor was taking no chances. He swung at the fastball, but missed. “I didn’t want to take a pitch that was that close,” he said. “I don’t think anybody wanted to take anything too close with two strikes today. He certainly had an aggressively umpired game. I’m certain the way the game was going, it would have been difficult for him not to call a strike.”

Harvey Frommer writes that between innings, Wells sat next to David Cone (who would pitch a perfect game 14 months later), who was a calming influence. Wells was dying to make conversation with someone, anyone, in the dugout. Wells sat down next to Darryl Strawberry, who got up and walked away. In the seventh inning, Cone told him: “It is time to break out the knuckleball.” Wells laughed, a big if nervous one. “I started getting really nervous,” Wells recalled. “I knew what was going on. I was hoping the fans would kind of shush a little bit. They were making me nervous.”

The Twins made it easy in the 9th. Rookie Jon Shave flew out to Paul O’Neill in right. Javier Valentin struck out. And moments after Pat Meares popped a fly to right that O’Neill caught. Wells pumped his left fist twice at the ground and he was swarmed by his teammates and was carried off the field. “This is great, Jorge, this is great,” he yelled to catcher Jorge Posada over and over.

“We let some fastballs go, we chased some curveballs in the dirt,” an admiring Twins Manager Tom Kelly said. “To pitch a perfect game, you have to have the pitches working. It’s not by accident. We were trying to get an icebreaker, something to get us going, a little hit here or there. But he was ahead of the count mostly on everybody. We were cheering and rooting for each other, but nothing good happened.”

Kelly said he didn’t see Wells getting any help from umpire McClelland. “He worked for it,” Kelly said. “This guy has the charisma for something like this. He doesn’t have the most picturesque frame to look at, he’s left-handed, his shirt’s half open. Give the guy an awful lot of credit.”

It was to be a magical season for Wells and the Yankees. Wells ended up setting an American League record of 38 consecutive outs over three games. Wells went 18-4, including going 11-1 at home, with a 3.49 ERA and threw five shutouts as the Yankees won a league record 114 wins. Wells was perfect in the post-season going 4-0 as the Yanks won the World Series.

Wells wrote in his autobiography that he was half-drunk for this game, but later amended it to “hung-over”. He misquoted himself.

Billy Crystal walked into the clubhouse after the game, walked over to the ecstatic Wells and asked: “I got here late, what happened?”

After he emerged from the dugout to acknowledge one last and long salute from the crowd, a phone call awaited him. Don Larsen was on the line.

Larsen told the New York Times: “He won’t forget it. He’ll think about it every day of his life, just like I do.”

David Wells said, “To pitch a perfect game wearing pinstripes at Yankee Stadium, it’s unbelievable. Growing up a Yankee fan, to come out here and make history, it really is a dream come true.”

Even with all the mileage, he might be worth a test drive.

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide. Autographed first editions are available by contacting, Bill@billy-ball.com or order directly from Acta Sports, http://www.actasports.com/detail.html?&id=3427 or from your favorite bookstore.

The Blue Jays have a strong starting rotation and a strong bullpen, but they are stuck in the quagmire that is .500 thanks to an anemic offense. The solution is Barry Bonds.

After watching the Toronto Blue Jays during the last few weeks, it is patently obvious why many baseball prognosticators picked the Blue Jays to win the American League wild card or even the AL East. The Blue Jays pitching appears to be the real deal with Roy Halladay, AJ Burnett and Shaun Marcum forming a potent top three, while Dustin McGowan and Jesse Litsch are likely the best 4 and 5 starters in baseball.

So far this season Halladay (8-6, 3.09 ERA) is his usual self, Burnett (6-6, 4.90 ERA) most importantly is healthy and Marcum (5-3, 2.43 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) is among the AL’s ERA leaders. Despite some tough luck (and no run support) McGowan (5-4, 3.92 ERA) has pitched well and all Litsch has done is fashion a 7-3 record and 3.70 ERA in 13 starts. McGowan, Marcum and Litsch were forced into duty last season when injuries decimated the Blue Jay staff, and the experience helped them become a bright young trio of pitchers this year.

While the starting rotation is strong, the bullpen might even be better. Even with the injuries to last season’s de-facto closers Jeremy Accardo and Casey Janssen, the 2008 bullpen is strong with B.J. Ryan, Brian Tallet, Scott Downs and Jesse Carlson. Accardo saved 30 games last year replacing Ryan, who missed 2007 from Tommy John surgery, but Accardo missed the last month with his own elbow related injury. Meanwhile Janssen (70 g, 2.35 ERA, 6 saves in 2007) is out for the season with a torn rotator cuff.

Set up men Tallet, Downs and Carlson (all lefthanders) have a combined 1.99 ERA in 83 appearances. Ryan has 14 saves, but has uncharacteristically has had some control issues.

While the rotation and bullpen have been keeping the Blue Jays in most games, the offense has had problems. Despite a decent team batting average of .259 (8th in the AL), the Blue Jays are 12th in the AL in runs scored (286) and tied for last in HR’s (46). Their slugging percentage is a dismal .378.

Their record stands at 35-36, and they are eight games back of Boston in the AL East, and six games behind the wildcard leading Rays. The Blue Jays need something to boost their prospects to perform up to their lofty pre-season expectations:

THE BLUE JAYS NEED BARRY BONDS.

During the spring, Toronto DH Frank Thomas didn’t hit very well; his bat speed looked very slow and he was subsequently released by the Blue Jays. Even after Thomas’ release, Toronto is mostly a right handed hitting lineup, especially when it comes to their expected power threats. These power threats, however, have been slow to materialize, leaving a void in power production.

Toronto needs a strong lefty presence to balance out the potential power of righties Vernon Wells, Alex Rios and Scott Rolen.

Wells is just off the disabled list from a broken wrist and has provided a small boost with 7-16 and 2 HR’s in his first four games back. After signing a huge deal early in the season, Rios has only 3 HR’s, 26 RBI’s and OPS of .708 – almost 100 points below his career number. Rolen had his own hand injury in April and has only 3 HR’s and 17 RBI’s.

Lefty’s Greg Zaun, Lyle Overbay and Matt Stairs are adequate major league hitters, but offer limited power and run production. Thus far in 2008, the Three Amigo Lefty’s have totaled 16 HR’s and 62 RBI’s, while each having an OPS of under .800. Last season, only Stairs offered any meaningful production with 21 HR and .289, but he is 40 years old and cannot be counted on to play every day. Those three hitters just don’t scare people. The recent signing of Brad Wilkerson, a Seattle Mariner castoff, hasn’t had the necessary offensive impact. He just can’t hit anymore – and neither can the other lefties. After the release of HOFer Thomas, Stairs has actually regressed during his full time as DH.

Barry Bonds would vastly improve the Blue Jay lineup, but his knees and age make him incapable of playing every day in the outfield. Bonds needs to be a full time DH and would provide more production than the 40-year-old Stairs. Plus, the usual contenders Red Sox, Yankees and now the Rays all have mostly right-handed starters and will throw right-handed relievers against the Jays. The Yankees don’t even have a LH pitcher in their bullpen. I guess the Blue Jays have cornered the LH reliever market!

When, and if, divisional foes Jon Lester or Andy Pettitte or Scott Kazmir throw against the Jays, Bonds could have a much-needed rest from the Sky Dome carpet.

The Blue Jays are well equipped to handle the attention, his personality and temperament that Bonds usually demands. The Jays locker room is a nice mix of veterans and young players who have started to make their stride as major leaguers, especially a team with good, young pitching. Newcomers Rolen and David Eckstein were obtained to help control the clubhouse and they, plus team veterans Wells, Rios, Roy Halladay and Stairs (if kept around), would hold rank over Bonds. Most importantly, this team needs a new bat – a lefty bat.

If Bonds were signed the inevitable media blitz would occur, but because it’s a small Canadian market team, this media wave would die down after a short while, especially when Bonds passes all of his close batting milestones.

As a Yankee fan, I can’t believe I am trying to help the Jays, but it’s a great deal for them … if they can get Bonds on their own terms. What’s a one-year deal for $5M (with incentives) when you have $100M tied up between Burnett and Ryan, and threw $65 million more at Rios? Imagine Bonds pummeling balls off the Green Monster and powering balls into Yankee Stadium’s upper deck – like he did on June 8, 2002.

Speaking of upper decks, Bonds on the Blue Jays would put more fannies in the upper deck of the Rogers Center, virtually paying for Bonds’ salary.

This speculation is all predicated on Bonds taking a one-year deal for reduced money, but having nice incentives in the contract. The Jays should offer Barry a contract to the end of the season for $1 million per month plus incentives for production, playing time, character maintenance, etc. In order to get the full salary, he would need to be willing to keep his ego in check, and if he doesn’t – he gets cut.

Barry Bonds needs the balance of this season to achieve some even numbered milestones such as 3,000 games, 3,000 hits and 2,000 RBI’s. Plus, he has the chance to help a team make a playoff run and the chance to play again in Fenway Park and the last season of Yankee Stadium. Oh, and after pleading not guilty last week, Bonds’ legal troubles were put off to after the 2008 season.

If the Blue Jays called with an offer, Bonds would be stupid to say no … and the Blue Jays would be stupid not to make that call.

Well the second week of the season is underway and the Sanford Mainers now stand in at 3-4 going into tonight’s game against the Lowell All-Americans. Although the season a week in, the players we have aren’t yet all together. We are short in the infield and outfielders are having to play some unnatural positions. We already have 20 errors on the season, but I think we’ll come around.

Mark Micowski (Univ. Of Vermont) leads our team in BA at .444, going 8 for 18 with a double and 2 RBI. We also have some power as I mentioned before with 3 home runs being hit in our not so hitter friendly yard here in Sanford, and by three different players. Our pitching staff is led (at least statistically) by Pat Lehman (George Washington Univ.) with a 0.00 ERA in 2 starts and 12.1 innings. He has 13 K’s against just 4 walks; batters are only hitting .114 against him.

A highlight this week was playing against team USA, which will face seven NECBL teams before finalizing their 22-man roster. The North Shore Navigators (enjoying their inaugural season in the NECBL) out of Lynn, MA actually defeated Team USA 6-3. There are even some NECBL alumni enjoying spots on Team USA’s roster this season.

The NECBL’s only remaining undefeated team is the Keene Swamp Bats. Keene has enjoyed a team ERA of 1.83 going in to tonight. As a staff they have 48 Ks in 192 at bats. They have walked 18. Their team BA is .276 and they have 54 hits in 196 at bats. They are always a fun team to watch. Their home field is very unique, with it only being 350ft to dead center because of a parking lot. They also draw a great crowd. This week and next will be when we start to determine the playmakers for the NECBL. And they will be updated weekly by me over the next few weeks.

Again, having my team located in Sanford, I do have favorites and I am excited to see that the Mainers are swinging big sticks. The batters have real power and we’ve seen a home run in each home game thus far. We usually see one or two home runs all season long. This could be a record year in Sanford for home runs.

Judged on what I have seen thus far in the season there is some good talent in the league. So visit the NECBL website to find a team close to you, and go enjoy a great night of baseball for very little money. Keep in mind the season ends the first week of August so don’t delay. It’s always a fantastic time and good opportunity to see some great collegiate talent.

I’m not just a baseball nut; I’m also an unabashed political junkie. I read two newspapers a day in print and countless others on-line every day. During my work day, when my television is on in the background, it’s either a ballgame or MSNBC. I DVR the NBC Nightly News and all three Sunday news shows. During the evenings, it’s Chris Mathews, Keith Olberman, the Daily Show and Colbert. Yet, with all these alternatives available to me, I simply cannot imagine what life will be like going forward without the presence of Tim Russert.

Russert had been the moderator of “Meet the Press,” the oldest continuous program on television, since 1991 and had been the NBC Washington bureau chief before that, starting in 1984. Under Russert, “Meet the Press” was the premier place for newsmakers and political candidates to make their case to the nation. If you couldn’t pass Tim’s muster, you couldn’t win approval of the people because, in spite of experience, his law degree, his prestige, he was one of us. He was us.

Like my mom, Tim Russert was from Buffalo, New York and was a constant cheerleader for the city. Periodically, I stick a political statement in Billy-Ball and invariably I hear from you how much you love Billy-Ball, but “please, keep my political views to myself.” I can only imagine the grief that Russert would hear when at the end of Meet the Press he would say, “Go Bills,” or “Go Sabres.” His boyish enthusiasm for the things he loved and felt so sincere about simply could not be denied.

He loved baseball as well and was deeply involved in the sport, far beyond being a Yankees fan and Washington Nationals season ticket holder. Jane Forbes Clark, the chairman of the Baseball Hall of Fame said:

We are shocked and deeply saddened to learn of Tim’s sudden passing. He was an integral member of our Board of Directors and its executive committee, and he cared about the Hall of Fame and its mission so much. We’ll miss Tim’s critical thinking and his unsurpassed passion for the game tremendously.

MLB.com reported how Russert said he was thrilled when he was selected to the Hall of Fame Board. “Baseball has been central to my life, as a son and as a father,” he said at the time. “I am honored to join the Board of the Hall of Fame to help preserve the history of baseball and educate a new generation about the glory of the game.”

He would go to Nationals games and sit next to his friend, and Sunday morning rival, Bob Schieffer, the host of CBS’s “Face the Nation.” Several years ago, Mr. Schieffer recalled on the air how a minor league baseball team held a one-night “Bob Schieffer bobble-head doll” promotion. “The next day on my desk was a little box with a bobble-head doll of Russert,” Mr. Schieffer remembers. “It was his way of saying, ‘Just so you know I have one, too.’ ”

Russert, who worked with Brian Williams as a presidential debate host, even served in that capacity in last summer’s “debate” for President of Red Sox Nation. Red Sox CEO Larry Lucchino released a statement:

On behalf of John Henry, Tom Werner, and the entire Boston Red Sox organization, I express our deep sadness and profound grief at the news of the passing of Tim Russert.  We extend our deepest sympathies to his family including his wife, Maureen, and his son, Luke, who always made him so proud.   Tim was a passionate fan of baseball, a great friend of the Red Sox, and a dear and beloved personal friend to many of us.  He left us far, far too soon, but he leaves a gigantic legacy of professionalism, journalistic excellence, authenticity and friendship that will inspire us and generations to follow us.  Red Sox Nation mourns the loss of Tim Russert more than we can express.

In the tribute shows to Russert we would often see a picture of him with Yogi Berra taken in 2004, when his CNBC weekend interview show featured a panel including Yogi, Whitey Ford, Jim Palmer and Roger Cl*m*ns. The show was shot in front of a live audience at the Yogi Berra Museum and Learning Center on the campus of Montclair State University in Montclair, N.J.

Commissioner Bud Selig issued the statement:

I am deeply saddened by the sudden passing of Tim Russert. He was one of the great journalists of our generation and a great fan of baseball. His untimely passing leaves a great void for our nation and Major League Baseball. All of us in Major League Baseball mourn Tim, and we send our sympathy and condolences to his family and friends.

And George Steinbrenner said:

I join millions of others in mourning Tim’s passing. He loved the game of baseball and was a true friend of the Yankees and mine. Tim always batted in the cleanup spot for the media and always hit for the fences. May God bless him and his family.

It always comes back to Tim Russert’s family, who he treasured above all else. His dad, Big Russ, his wife, journalist Maureen Orth, and his son Luke, who just graduated from Boston College with whom he would talk to, text, and IM daily, invariably about baseball and other sports.

He regarded Meet the Press as his second son. I understand how a labor of love can be that important.

Tim Russert was a great icon of American journalism.

He was a great icon of America.

He was a great icon.

As my daughter, Elizabeth Chuck, who works for NBC and MCNBC News, so perfectly put it, “It feels like Sunday died.”

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide. Autographed first editions are available by contacting, Bill@billy-ball.com or order directly from Acta Sports, http://www.actasports.com/detail.html?&id=3427 or from your favorite bookstore.

Depending on the severity of his foot injury, it appears that Chien-Ming Wang will be out for an indefinite period. If the foot is merely sprained, Wang could miss up to three weeks, but if Wang suffered a Lisfranc fracture, then the Yankees ace could be out for the season. A Lisfranc fracture is basically a dislocation of the small bones at the top of the foot located between the ankle and toes. Yankee relief pitcher Brian Bruney suffered a Lisfranc fracture seven weeks ago and there is no definite date for his return.

Either way, Wang is going to at least miss his next couple of starts. This is a huge blow for the Yankees, who for the first time all year have reached four games over .500 with a 37-33 record. Wang is 54-20 over his brief four-year career, and his .730 winning percentage is BEST ALL TIME for pitchers with at least 50 career wins.

Those are tough numbers to duplicate.

So where do the Yankees turn to replace Wang if he is out for an extended period?

Typical, short-sighted Yankee fans will want GM Brian Cashman to go out and trade for Cleveland’s C.C. Sabathia – he of the big arm and big body. Despite his current 5-8 record, Sabathia is 4-3 with a 2.21 ERA over his last 11 starts with two complete game shutouts. But, Sabathia is a free agent after this season and trading for Sabathia will cost at least two top minor league pitchers (out of a pool of AAA pitchers Alan Horne and Daniel McCutchen and stud reliever Mark Melancon) and a top position player or two (Austin Jackson or Brett Gardner). Other marginal pitchers such as Bronson Arroyo, Shawn Chacon and Randy Wolf, who the Yanks face tomorrow night, will also cost several prospects.

Too rich for my blood. Better to keep the players, and if the organization really wants Sabathia, just spend the $100 million or so this off season.

Although the pressure to get a front line starter to replace Wang will be tremendous, the Yankees need to take a page out of the playbook of fellow Eastern Division foes Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox and look internally.

In 2007 the Blue Jays suffered early season injuries to starters AJ Burnett (what else is new?), Gustavo Chacin (#3 starter) and even ace Roy Halladay, who missed three weeks with an emergency appendectomy. The Blue Jays promoted Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum and Jesse Litsch last year and now those three pitchers comprise 60% of the 2008 rotation and are 17-10 this year. When the Red Sox lost Curt Schilling this season, suffered injuries to Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka and missed starts from Josh Beckett, the Red Sox brought up Justin Masterson from AA Portland.

There is no reason to trade a boatload of talent for C. C. Sabathia. The Yankees have talent in the minors.

While youngsters Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes did not perform early in the season, the Yankees still need to go with internal talent. Dan Giese, Daniel McCutchen or Alan Horne should get the opportunity to start. Under no circumstance should Kei Igawa ever get the nod. Giese, who finished yesterday’s game, is the likely candidate, having piggybacked Joba Chamberlain in his first two starts. Giese has both started (for AAA Scranton) and long relieved (for the parent club) this season. He is also already on the 25 and 40 man rosters.

But, the Yankees might elect to keep Giese in that long reliever lot while bringing up McCutchen or Horne. After a few shaky outings after being called up to AAA, McCutchen threw a CG shutout Saturday. Meanwhile, Horne has pitched effectively in his two starts since returning from a biceps injury but has only made four AAA starts in his career. Both McCutchen and Horne would need to be added to the 25 and 40 man rosters, obviously replacing Wang on the 25, but unless Wang is placed on the 60 day DL, another move would need to be made on the 40. Jonathan Albaladejo could be transferred to the 60 day DL or the Yankees could drop AAA catcher Chris Stewart or release or trade the suddenly persona non grata Shelley Duncan.

Bottom line is that the Yankees do not need to go outside the organization to find a starting pitcher. They have enough talent to promote a youngster to the rotation, but they need enough guts and patience to make the correct move. Current veteran starters Pettitte and Mussina have pitched well recently, while Joba has improved every start in his transition to the rotation. Darrell Rasner, despite a bad start in Oakland, is serviceable as the fourth starter.

Keep the talent in the organization, let the kids pitch and leave Sabathia alone.

“I believe in the church of baseball.” - Annie Savoy

On June 15, 2008, possibly the greatest fictional baseball story ever told will turn 20 years old. Not quite legally old enough to buy beer, but young and fresh enough on every viewing to keep us smiling and laughing and loving every minute of it, BULL DURHAM is still, two decades later, the best baseball movie every made.

We should all be thankful that writer/director Ron Shelton was a baseball fan, or better still, a former minor league farm hand in the Orioles organization. He would turn his time in the minors and that love of the game into his first feature length film; a tale of baseball and manhood and love and more baseball and more manhood and commitment and manhood and baseball.

Twenty years ago we were introduced to Crash Davis, a career journeyman minor leaguer with nearly 250 minor league homers and enough baseball wit and wisdom to fill up a Major League ballpark. We also met Annie Savoy, a part time teacher and full time church of baseball worshiper who spends the minor league season seducing one lucky ballplayer in hopes of getting that player prepared for the big leagues. She and Crash are burdened with the same task: preparing Ebby Calvin “Nuke” LaLoosh (the organization’s top pitching prospect, a pitcher with a million dollar arm and a five cent head), for his inevitable call up to “the show”.

Shelton’s premise for BULL DURHAM was actually taken from the ancient Greek dark comedy LYSISTRATA, which, loosely translated means “she who disbands armies”. In LYSISTRATA, the female characters all dominate the male characters through the use of sex as a tool to control men, the idea being that even in a man’s world, woman are truly in control.

Shelton took the concept to minor league baseball and with huge success. At the time, baseball films were considered a huge financial risk. Orion Films nonetheless took a chance on Shelton and his script, financing BULL DURHAM for what is considered a shoe string budget by Hollywood standards at $9 million dollars. Most of the actors, including leads Kevin Costner, Susan Sarandon and Tim Robbins all took less money to play ball with Shelton and his wonderful script. In the end, BULL DURHAM raked in over $50 million dollars at the U.S. box office and brought Ron Shelton an Academy Award nomination for his original screenplay.

Over the years, we have all discovered that BULL DURHAM is much more than a simple movie about men, woman and the national pastime. It has become a primary source for answers to many of life’s greatest questions. Here is a sampling of some of the things that one will learn from the BULL DURHAM experience:

• Making love is like hitting a baseball; you just need to relax and concentrate.
• There should be a Constitutional Amendment outlawing astro-turf and the DH.
• Doc Gooden takes off his socks prior to having sex.
• Think classy and you’ll be classy. This means no fungus on your shower shoes.
• Strikeouts are boring and fascist; ground ball outs are more Democratic.
• Baseball is a simple game. You throw the ball, you hit the ball, and you catch the ball.
• Woman don’t get wooly, they get weary.
• The lava lizards of the Galapagos Islands breathe through their eyelids.
• Never (expletive deleted) with a winning streak.
• When you get in a fight with a drunk never hit him with your pitching hand.
• Sometimes you win. Sometimes you lose. Sometimes it rains.

And most importantly…

• Whatever you do, don’t think. It can only hurt the ball club.

Twenty years later BULL DURHAM is still on top of its game. And for baseball fans, it gives us a little piece of what baseball is really all about. It’s about the dreams of young men just starting out, and older men who respect the game more than anything else. It’s about the commitment to your team, whomever and whatever that team is. It’s about trying to keep your head straight even though there are pretty girls around every corner. It’s about finishing what you’ve started. And most of all, it’s about baseball.

In the end, what more can you ask for.

The biggest surprise so far this season is the Tampa Bay Rays. Most probably think it’s because of their fast start in the standings. That was unexpected to a certain extent, but what is puzzling is the lack of credibility they are given by the mainstream media. WFAN’s Mike Francesa was quoted last week as saying the Rays “will never beat the Yankees in August and September”. He went as far to say they will finish minimum five games behind the Bombers. Nationally everyone is in love with the Cubs, Phillies and Red Sox. I’m taking a different stance and think the Rays are here to stay. It wasn’t too long ago that we said a certain team in Detroit was a fad.

Many criticized their enthusiasm in spring training when Elliot Johnson injured Francisco Cervelli at home plate. Teams with established winning pedigrees treat spring training differently than up and coming groups. The Rays needed to establish a winning culture right out of the gate and that hardnosed play at the plate was symbolic of their new attitude. The youthful enthusiasm and scrappy nature of this ballclub has helped them overcome talent gaps and make winning infectious.

Of course having a young left handed stud (close your eyes Mets fans) like Scott Kazmir to build around helps immensely. His miniscule ERA and near automatic quality start takes the pressure off of the developing Matt Garza, James Shields and Andy Sonnanstine. Let’s not forget former prospect Edwin Jackson, who is having a career year and finally living up to his potential. When you factor in the veteran bullpen, that so far has withstood an injury to their closer, you realize there are enough arms to compete in the AL East.

On the offensive side you have a good balance of speed, power, and experience. BJ Upton and Carl Crawford give opposing pitchers fits with their complete offensive game. Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena (now hurt) provide the heavy lumber. Cliff Floyd and Eric Hinske have championship experience necessary during those tough “dog days” of August and the pressure cooker of September. You have to like the mix of youth and experience on the Rays roster.

Let’s not forget the leadership of Joe Madden. Each year the Rays have improved under Maddon. Many thought Scott Kazmir would never stick around, but he loved the team and Maddon so much he signed an extension. The commitment to Longoria long term sheds the “tight-wad” image of prior Rays ownership. Scott Sternberg has the team, for the first time, committed to a long term plan that includes winning ballgames. Just as important, he is working on a new facility that should finally make going to a Ray’s game more enjoyable. That will not impact the team in 2008, but it will help in recruiting key free agents with the extra revenue a new stadium will generate.

So while those in the media, specifically New York, discount the Rays, I will continue to watch them closely. I believe they are here to stay this season, much like the Tigers in 2006. We all know how that story ended: a World Series appearance.

Mike Silva is a freelance writer and radio host. His is the host of a New York baseball show called NY Baseball Digest that you can find at www.nybaseballdigest.com

“Waste no tears for me. I wasn’t born too early. I was born right on time.” – Jon Jordan “Buck” O’Neil

Occasionally a person or a group of people will actually come up with an idea that just plain works. I wish that Major League Baseball came up with said type of “idea” more frequently than a J.D. Salinger appearance, but frankly, they don’t. It is sad but true. So when Bud Selig and his “yes” men finally get something right, we should stand up and take notice. Last past Thursday was one of those times.

Prior to the 2008 First-Year Player Draft, Major League Baseball held a Negro Leagues Player Draft honoring surviving Negro League players who never had the opportunity to play in the Majors. The Negro League Draft was the brainchild of Hall of Famer Dave Winfield, now a Vice President with the San Diego Padres. Winfield, like a lot of us, was deeply saddened at the passing of the Negro Leagues greatest ambassador, Buck O’Neil in October of 2006. After O’Neil’s death, Winfield felt obligated to keep Buck’s dream of honoring the Negro Leagues alive. Winfield felt the Negro League Draft was the best way to do so.

The idea was met with open arms by Baseball Commissioner Bud Selig and Baseball Executive Vice President Jimmie Solomon. So, on June 5th thirty former Negro League players were drafted one by one by all thirty Major League ball clubs. As each team was announced and each player’s name was called, you could sense that this was special. This was LIVING baseball history.

Here are the players who made this moment so memorable.

Bob Mitchell, Pitcher (Drafted by the Arizona Diamondbacks). Mitchell pitched for the Kansas City Monarchs in the 1950’s just as the Negro Leagues were winding down.

James Moore, First Base (Atlanta Braves). Moore is regarded as one of the slickest fielding first sackers in Negro League history. At different times in his career, “Red” Moore played alongside Hall of Famers Willie Wells, Ray Dandridge and Mule Suttles.

Walt Owens, Pitcher (Chicago Cubs). When Walt wasn’t on the mound for the Detroit Stars, he could be found playing first base.

Charlie Davis, Pitcher (Cincinnati Reds). After pitching for the Memphis Red Sox, “Whip” Davis went on to manage the Rockdale Rawhides in the 1950’s.

Mack Pride, Jr., Pitcher (Colorado Rockies). The younger brother of country music legend Charley Pride, “Mack the Knife” pitched for both the Memphis Red Sox and the Kansas City Monarchs.

Enrique Maroto, Pitcher (Florida Marlins). Maroto pitched for the Monarchs in the 1950’s and was signed to contracts by the St. Louis Cardinals and the Washington Senators but never made it to the big leagues.

Bill Blair, Pitcher (Houston Astros). Blair pitched for the Detroit Stars and the Indianapolis Clowns from 1946 to 1951. Prior to his black baseball career Blair served his country during WWII and then toured with Jesse Owens and the Harlem Globetrotters.

Andrew Porter, Pitcher (Los Angeles Dodgers). Porter had a long and successful Negro League career. He was one of the mainstays in the Elite Giants rotation during the 1930’s. He played in two Negro League East/West All Star games, the second coming eighteen years after the first (1932 and 1950). He is the second oldest living professional ballplayer at the tender age of 97 (Born March 11, 1911).

Joseph B. Scott, Outfielder (Milwaukee Brewers). Scott was a tough and gritty outfielder who was known for his trademark hustle while with the NY Black Yankees and the Memphis Red Sox. He was the first black man to play in Wrigley Field, having done so in a high school championship game.

Robert Scott, Pitcher (New York Mets). Scott spent five years in black baseball finishing his career barnstorming with the Jackie Robinson All Stars.

Mahlon Duckett, Infielder (Philadelphia Phillies). Duckett was a versatile infielder, having played both second and third base for the Philadelphia Stars and the Homestead Grays. He broke into the Negro Leagues at the age of 17.

James Tillman, Catcher (Pittsburgh Pirates). Tillman played in three campaigns (1941 to 1943) and was the Homestead Grays back up catcher filling in for the legendary Josh Gibson.

Joe Henry, Infielder (St. Louis Cardinals). “Prince” Henry played second and third base for four teams in the 1950’s, as black baseball was coming to an end.

Walter McCoy, Pitcher (San Diego Padres). McCoy was a sandlot star in San Diego before pitching for the American Giants in the mind 1940’s.

Carlos Manuel Santiago, Shortstop (San Francisco Giants). A slick fielding Cuban shortstop, Santiago caught the eye of Atlanta Black Crackers manager John Beckwith in 1945. He played with many Negro League teams in the late 1940’s and early 1950’s, including the New York Cubans.

Mamie Johnson, Pitcher (Washington Nationals). Mamie “Peanut” Johnson was one of three women who played for the Indianapolis Clowns from 1953 to 1955. Standing just 5’4’’ and weighing in at 120 pounds, Johnson won 33 games in her three year career.

Bert Simmons, Pitcher (Baltimore Orioles). Simmons is a WWII veteran who joined the Baltimore Elite Giants in the 1950’s. When he wasn’t pitching for them, he could be found roaming the outfield.

Jim Colzie, Pitcher (Boston Red Sox). Pitching in seven seasons for the Indianapolis Clowns and Atlanta Black Crackers, Colzie’s shining moment came in 1947 when he pitched head to head against and beat Hall of Famer Satchel Paige.

Hank Presswood, Shortstop/Third Base (Chicago White Sox). Presswood started his career with the Cleveland Buckeyes as a shortstop in 1948 and finished his career as a third baseman for manager Buck O’Neil and the Kansas City Monarchs.

Otha Bailey, Catcher (Cleveland Indians). Bailey had a reputation for calling a good game for five teams over nine Negro League seasons. He was nicknamed “Lil Catch” because of his overall small size.

Cecil Kaiser, Pitcher (Detroit Tigers). Kaiser was the dictionary definition of a barnstorming ballplayer, having played in the United States, Mexico, Cuba, Puerto Rico, Panama and the Dominican Republic for the Pittsburgh Crawfords and the Homestead Grays.

Ulysses Holliman, Pitcher (Kansas City Royals). Nicknamed “Slim”, Holliman pitched for Birmingham and Baltimore from 1948 to 1956. The pinnacle of his career came in 1951 as he was selected to pitch in the East/West Negro League All Star Game.

Neale Henderson, Shortstop (Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim). “Bobo” Henderson was a southern California product who signed with the Kansas City Monarchs in 1949. Later in his career he played for a Barnstorming team managed by all-time Negro League great James “Cool Papa” Bell.

Bill Bell, Pitcher (Minnesota Twins). Bell played for the Kansas City Monarchs starting in 1949. “Lefty”, as his teammates called him, had an uncanny ability to paint the corners and work the count in his favor.

Emilio Navarro, Shortstop/Second Base (New York Yankees). “Millito” Navarro was the first Puerto Rican born player to play in the Negro Leagues. During his career with the Cuban Stars, he was a super slick glove man known for his soft hands and quick feet. Emilio was born on September 26, 1905. He is, at 102 years old, the oldest living former professional ballplayer.

Irvin Castille, Shortstop (Oakland Athletics). Castille is known to spend hours at card shows and ballgames signing autographs and sharing stories from his days with the Birmingham Black Barons in the early 1950’s.

John Miles, Third Base/Outfield (Seattle Mariners). Legendary black baseball manager Candy Jim Taylor gave Miles his nickname of “Mule” for his ability to hit mountainous, all-or-nothing home runs for the Chicago American Giants.

Walter Lee Gibbons, Pitcher (Tampa Bay Rays). Gibbons started his career in 1941, pitching first for the Philadelphia Stars and then the New York Black Yankees. He left baseball to serve his country in WWII but returned in mid 1940’s to pitch with the Indianapolis Clowns. After pitching two seasons with the Clowns, Gibbons again left baseball to serve his country, this time in the Korean War. He would return from Korea to play in a semi-pro league in South Dakota.

Charley Pride, Pitcher (Texas Rangers). Starting his career in the sandlots of Memphis, Pride was noted for his wicked curve ball. After playing for the Memphis Red Sox and the Birmingham Black Barons, Pride would leave baseball and go on to a hugely successful career in country music. His greatest baseball moment came during a spring training game in the 1970’s. As a special guest invitee of the Rangers, Pride went 1 for 2 off Baltimore ace and Hall of Famer Jim Palmer.

Harold Gould, Pitcher (Toronto Blue Jays). A solid right-handed hurler, Gould started his Negro League career with the Philadelphia Stars in 1946. He is originally from Gouldtown, New Jersey, a town named after one of his ancestors.

We should all give thanks to Dave Winfield and Major League Baseball for giving the lady and twenty nine gentlemen who were drafted on this day the recognition that is long overdue to them. They are now what they never had the chance to be before. They are Major League Baseball players.

Join me in applauding them.

Earlier this week Don Ehrke wrote a thought-provoking piece on whether Bill James should be in the Hall of Fame.

I was wondering, first of all, if everyone agrees that the way baseball is understood by fans, media and coaches has changed over the past 30 years or so as a direct consequence of innovative statistical research?
 
Even if the research hasn’t always been that innovative and perhaps it’s just a result of exposure to a greater number of people, but isn’t someone responsible for this renaissance?
 
I am aware of Alan Roth who recently passed away. He worked as Branch Rickey’s right-hand stat man and provided statistical analysis for the Dodgers. He focused on on-base percentage and looked at how batters fared against certain pitchers and in particular situations – data that used to be obscure to the general baseball public.
 
Very little is obscure nowadays. We have a plethora of data: OPS, OPS+, win shares, VORP, fielding statistics, batter performance against pitchers the first, second, third and fourth times up, etc. And this data has changed our baseball consciousnesses. Shouldn’t this change and the forces behind the change be recognized? If it’s not Bill James, then who should it be?
 
Most baseball fans have a very basic understanding of what is going on during a game. They don’t possess the spirit or intelligence to delve deeper into circumstances and conditions on their own. I am one of these fans, and I can’t think of anyone other than Bill James or Alan Roth who planted this fictional chip in my brain that has changed the way I watch and understand baseball – and done it in an entertaining way.
 
I am not intimidated by Mr. James. I find his writings to be very readable. He provokes no feelings of jealousy from my end (and I suspect this emotion is what is behind some of the animosity toward him), and no desire to spearhead a civil war between traditionalists watching games and stat heads watching numbers. I find it impossible to believe that the insights drummed up by those using statistics originate from someone who never watches games. I find the entire discussion ridiculous. Why would someone waste their time crunching baseball numbers if they didn’t love baseball? There is more money to be made on the stock market.
 
The addition of statistical depths to the daily baseball scorecard provides fans in 2008 with a multi-dimensional landscape in which to view the reality of baseball. I think we are spoiled with information. The change has been quick and mind blowing.
 
Again, if it’s not Bill James wearing the statistical crown, who should it be?

They have the perfect storyteller as their broadcaster, a color named after their team, and a deep history of changing the game in one way or another. They play in the perfect baseball climate, and you can even get all the food you can eat when you sit in right field. Whether it’s their six World Series Championships or the stadium that was so great that the Mets are designing their new field after it (Ebbets Field), the Los Angeles Dodgers have plenty of things to brag about.

It doesn’t matter if you need big time storylines or interesting quirks. They are a team that has it all. Why would I, a Red Sox fan, be speaking such high praise about another franchise? I feel that as a true baseball fan, I am required to appreciate a great organization like the one the Dodgers have been for the entirety of their existence.

Jackie Robinson and Branch Rickey were the two men who inspired a league-wide respect for the Dodgers, even if it took some time to get over the differences some teams had on the issue of player race. The Dodgers have had some great class acts over the years, whether it be Robinson, Rickey, Roy Campanella or now Joe Torre. They have some of the game’s most memorable moments, including Kirk Gibson’s pinch hit home run, and their intense, century-long rivalry with the Giants. They had a pretty strong rivalry with the Yankees as well, so the anti-Bombers crowd has something to cheer for. That works well for me, as does one of the Dodgers’ many third basemen right now – my favorite player, Nomar Garciaparra.

There are plenty of reasons to love the Dodgers. Even if they’re not your favorite (or even second favorite) team, you can easily enjoy the history of this great franchise.

Does anybody have any other reasons to like the Dodgers, or another team that deserves some attention?

Here’s a 25-fact roster for you.

1. The All-Star Game may actually mean something this year if the Red Sox and the Cubs get that far. The Sox have the best home record in the AL and the Cubs have the best home record in the NL.
2. Is it just me or don’t you think if David Ortiz is out for an extended period of time that Ken Griffey, Jr. would make a great addition to the Red Sox lineup?
3. The last time the Cubs were no-hit was Sept. 9, 1965 when the Dodgers’ Sandy Koufax threw a perfect game against them in what may have been the best pitched game of all-time. The Dodgers got only one hit in their 1-0 victory. Bob Hendley was the complete game loser giving up just one walk and an unearned run.
4. Speaking of the Cubs, Alfonso Soriano will miss 6 weeks plus with a broken hand. The Cubbies went 9-5 earlier this season when Alfonso was on the DL.
5. Since 1998, the AL West has been won by the Seattle Mariners once, Texas Rangers twice, the Oakland A’s three times, and the Los Angeles Angels four times.
6. Seven teams have an average age of under 28 years old, with Arizona and Florida, the homes for many retirees, the youngest in MLB at 27.6. There are six teams with an average age of 30.0 or older, with the oldest being the Mets and Astros at 30.8.
7. The Twins have been carrying 13 pitchers forcing them to use starter Kevin Slowey as a pinch-runner. Is there a more inappropriate last name for a pinch-runner?
8. The Red Sox have been shut out five times already this season. They were blanked seven times in all of 2007.
9. A rookie is defined by MLB as a player who during a previous season or seasons, has (a) not exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the major leagues; or (b) not accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a major league club or clubs during the period of a 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service). This is why the Orioles Adam Jones is not a rookie. In two visits with the Seattle Mariners in 2006 and 2007 he had 74 and 65 at bats, putting him nine over the limit.
10. Confirming what you already know, Alex Rodriguez is simply not a clutch hitter. Through Thursday, with Runners In Scoring Position A-Rod is hitting .229, and with RISP and two outs, Rodriguez is a paltry .190.
11. Giants’ infielder Emmanuel Burriss who attended Wilson High, is believed to be the first graduate of a Washington, D.C., public high school to reach the major leagues in 38 years. The district has not produced a player of any prominence since Maury Wills graduated from Cardozo High School.
12. Speaking of the Giants, while I’m not a big fan of the Quality Start stat (devised by sportswriter John Lowe, in which a starting pitcher is credited with a quality start if he pitches at least six innings and allows three or fewer earned runs) you have to hand it to San Fran starter Tim Lincecum who has started 13 games this season and all 13 are of the QS variety. That accounts for his 8-1 record and 1.99 ERA. Interestingly enough, Daisuke Matsuzaka, who is 8-0 with a 2.53 ERA, only has five quality starts this season.
13. This past week, the Padres celebrated a “Groundhog Day” moment when they became the first major league team to win four consecutive games by a 2-1 score.
14. Speaking of the Padres, when Michael Barrett homered last Saturday night, it was the first homer by a Padres catcher in 233 at bats.
15. The Texas Rangers, led by their Triple Crown candidate Josh Hamilton, lead the majors in runs, hits, doubles, total bases, RBI, batting average, slugging percentage and OPS. All of this is a good thing because they are dead last in ERA.
16. The Hall of Fame celebrated their 69th anniversary on June 12, and it should be noted that there has never been a unanimous choice for the Hall. (Tom Seaver came closest with 98.84 percent of the votes, not receiving the assent of five voters.) As amazing as that is, it is even more shocking that 11 of the first 226 voters did not vote for Babe Ruth or Honus Wagner and four did not vote for Ty Cobb.
17. Yankee relievers Mariano Rivera, Edwar Ramírez and José Veras visited Alcatraz Island on Wednesday, meeting one of the few surviving prisoners. It was so scary,” Veras said. “I don’t know how people can survive there for 5 or 7 or 10 years. It was unbelievable. Amazing.” That’s the same thing people say about playing for the Yankees.
18. Dontrelle Willis, 22-28 the last two years, has walked 191 batters in 440 innings. Sandy Koufax in the last three years of his career (72-22) walked 201 batters in 881.2 innings.
19. The Mets have six switch-hitters on their roster (Raul Casanova, Luis Castillo, Abraham Nunez, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, and Angel Pagan) while the Cubs and Brewers have none.
20. The NY Times’ Tyler Kepner tells us that Jason Giambi was in the stands at Dodger Stadium for Game 1 of the 1988 World Series, when a hobbling Kirk Gibson smashed his pinch-hit, game-ending home run.
21. Omar Vizquel is the only player besides Johnny Damon to get six hits in a game at Yankee Stadium, going 6-for-7 with Cleveland on Aug. 31, 2004. Myril Hoag also went 6-for-6 for New York on June 6, 1934, at Boston, and Gerald Williams was 6-for-8 in a 15-inning game May 1, 1996, at Baltimore.
22. The Red Sox are the ?rst major league team from Boston to play a regular season game in Cincinnati since 8/28/1952, when the Reds beat the Boston Braves 5-4 in 11 innings.
23. In honor of the last week’s draft let’s raise our glasses to toast Steve Chilcott, the only position player taken with the number one pick who never played an inning in the major leagues. Chilcott was the New York Mets’ top pick in 1966. While we’re at it, here’s to Brien Taylor, the only pitcher taken with the number one pick by the Yankees (1991), who never reached the majors. Both had major injuries while in the minors.
24. June 11 was the Mets’ Jose Reyes 25th birthday. Reyes had 257 career stolen bases and 57 triples before turning 25. The only other player in major league history who had at least 250 stolen bases and at least 50 triples before his 25th birthday was Ty Cobb, who had 344 stolen bases and 89 triples when he turned 25-years-old in 1911. Reyes has five triples this season and needs only five more triples to tie Mookie Wilson for the most in Mets history.
25. If all the players who ever played baseball were arranged in alphabetical order, Red Sox reliever David Aardsma would be first and Dutch Zwilling (of the Chicago Cubs, Chicago Whales, and Chicago White Sox, 1910-1916) would be last.

Bill Chuck is the creator of Billy-Ball.com and, with Jim Kaplan, is the author of the book, “Walk-Offs, Last Licks, and Final Outs – Baseball’s Grand (and not so Grand) Finales,” with a Foreword by Jon Miller, published by ACTA Sports, and available worldwide. Autographed first editions are available by contacting, Bill@billy-ball.com or order directly from Acta Sports, http://www.actasports.com/detail.html?&id=3427 or from your favorite bookstore.

The White Sox seem to be all about their manager, at least as far as the media is concerned. Almost on a daily basis we are treated to another Ozzie rant as he has criticized the cross town rival Cubs and their fans, his own GM Kenny Williams, most of his players and the media. He would yell at a puppy on his day off. It’s becoming more and more apparent that there is a method to his madness: take the pressure off the players. The season is long and the pressure in a sports mad town like Chicago can be crippling, especially when your team is struggling.

The White Sox are in first place in what was predicted to be perhaps baseball’s strongest division but so far this season has been one of mediocrity. The starting pitching has been unexpectedly rock solid considering how bad Mark Buehrle has been, as youngsters John Danks and Gavin Floyd have been much better than hoped for. Javier Vasquez has been solid and Jose Contreras seems finally injury free. Closer Bobby Jenks hasn’t been the power strikeout closer we’ve seen over the past couple of years but has 15 saves and an ERA of 2.05. The middle relief has been used more than manager Guillen would like, but it too has been solid.

So far it’s been the lack of clutch hitting and offensive fundamentals, (failure to move runners over or get them in from third with less than two out), that has hurt the offense. Jim Thome’s age seems to be catching up with him as pitchers around the league pound him inside. He’s either unwilling or unable to adjust. Orlando Cabrera is having his worst season both defensively and at the plate (when he’s not arguing with official scorers or knocking management), and Nick Swisher and Paul Konerko have been unproductive. Joe Crede’s back has held up and though he’s making too many errors, his bat has been one the few productive parts of the batting order. Off season trade acquisition Carlos Quentin and playing in a very weak division have been the saviors of this team.

The Twins lost Johan Santana and Tori Hunter this past off season and made a big trade with Tampa Bay, giving up Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett and getting Delmon Young. They did keep closer Joe Nathan, ending the notion (at least for now) that the trading of Santana was the beginning of a fire sale. The main bounty received for Santana, Carlos Gomez, has shown tremendous speed in center and on the bases (he recently scored from second on a sacrifice fly to center), but Young has been just okay in left and at the plate. The biggest concern offensively for the Twins is their brutal lack of power. Joe Mauer has hit only two and Young has none! Justin Morneau leads the team with ten while Jason Kubel is second with six. There hasn’t been much in the way of doubles either with only three players in double figures. Alexi Casilla has surprised and Matt Tolbert has taken over for the .189 hitting Adam Everett at shortstop. The Twins have had to scrap and claw to score runs thus far in a park that is a good one for hitters. Closer Joe Nathan has been his usual strikeout closer – one of baseball’s best.

The loss of middle reliever Pat Neshek will be difficult to overcome. The off season hope that Francisco Liriano could come back from major arm surgery and make up for the loss of Santana has thus far proven to be false, and Nick Blackburn has emerged as the leader of the starters. Livan Hernandez, on the comeback trail, looked good early, but now the league is beginning to catch up to him. Glen Perkins has helped this often patched together rotation, while Biff Bonser has been ineffective. Manager Ron Gardenhire has had to mix and match all season long.

The Tigers have played so poorly in all aspects of the game that there is even talk that manager Jim Leyland’s job might be in jeopardy if their struggles continue. Detroit added star third baseman Miguel Cabrera over the winter, but he was so bad at third that Leyland moved him to first base. He hasn’t been much better there, and they had to move Carlos Guillen to third to replace him. The Tigers knew going in that their bullpen was potentially a problem because of off season injuries but couldn’t have foreseen the collapse of their starters or a lack of offence. The injury to leadoff hitter and sparkplug Curtis Granderson was blamed for the terrible start by the Tigers. The team is playing lackluster baseball and seems to be standing around hoping something will get them going.

Only Miguel Ordonez, Carlos Guillen and Placido Polanco have done much of anything, and Cabrera has only eight home runs. There’s been little clutch hitting, poor fundamentals offensively and on defense and mental lapses. As bad as the hitting has been, the pitching has been worse, especially the starters. Justin Verlander, Kenny Rogers and Nate Robertson have been killing the team and Jeremy Bonderman hasn’t been much better. Despite the out of necessity overuse of the bullpen, Aquilino Lopez and Bobby Seay have been good. Detroit had better hope that this season will turn out to be just a bump in the road, or it could be a long few years ahead for this team that just three years ago was finally turning things around.

The Indians pitching has been generally good, at times even brilliant. Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez and company have not. Cleveland has scored three runs or less in 30 of their 54 games. Everyone is wondering where Hafner has been the last season and a half, and there are whispers that he might be one of those players who loses it all at once. Martinez has been bothered all season by a sore hamstring, perhaps explaining his zero home runs this season. That’s not good, especially from your cleanup hitter. Ben Francisco is hitting and Grady Sizemore has been okay. Asdrubal Cabrera has been hit hard by the sophomore jinx, (sent to Triple A June 9th), Jhonny Peralta has been home runs or nothing and Ryan Garko has been barely average and Casey Blake bad.

Pitching has saved the Indians so far, and Cliff Lee has been one of the more pleasant surprises of the season. He’s 9-1 and hasn’t allowed much of anything. Ace C.C. Sabathia, after a rough couple of initial starts, has been red hot. Jake Westbrook was put on the DL recently and what looked like nothing to be too concerned about now seems far more serious. Francisco Carmona is proving that last season huge breakout for him wasn’t entirely a fluke, although I suspect he’s been more lucky than good. He has fifteen more walks than strikeouts this season, and that will catch up to him soon. Neither Joe Borowski nor Rafael Betancourt has been any good as closers, and manager Eric Wedge’s search for a closer continues.

The Royals are young and prone to long losing streaks and much frustration. I’m still a bit confused by the choice of Trey Hillman as manager (probably my low opinion of Japanese baseball), but he is proving to be patient with this young team and the pitching staff seems to be coming along. The Gil Meche signing has proven to be an astute one, although his stats aren’t impressive so far. Zack Greinke has overcome his fears, Brian Bannister has been a pleasant surprise and number one pick and rookie Luke Hochevar has been okay. Throwing young starters into the proverbial meat grinder will either toughen them mentally and give them valuable experience for when the Royals are again (hopefully) competitive, or it will strip them of their confidence.

The Royals’ defense is poor and their hitting isn’t much better. Hillman has stood behind his players through the worst of times (eleven game losing streak) and is laying the groundwork for the future with a perhaps unrealistic goal of contention in 2010. Joakim Soria has been one of baseball’s best closers and the trade for Kyle Davies has looked good. The Hideo Nomo and Brent Tomko experiments are proving to be a disaster – and are an example that Royals management hasn’t completely gotten over their incompetent ways of the past 20 years.

Alex Gordon has yet to break out after almost a major league season and a half, but he is slowly improving. Kansas City needs Gordon to find his potential soon both from a public relations standpoint and a won lost standpoint. Hopes were/are that he will soon be a player in the mold and with the impact of the Reds’ Jay Bruce. Billy Butler was for some reason blamed for the team’s lack of power and was sent down, (he wasn’t tearing up the league but he wasn’t alone), and short stop Tony Pena seems to have lost his starting job by hitting only .154. Jose Guillen, after blasting his team mates for their poor play, has begun to hit and Mark Grudzielanek has been his typical veteran presence self. The Royals still have too many spare part players out on the field every day. The rest of the league can’t wait to play them. They are as good as the Tigers, and in many seasons that would be cause for excitement in Kansas City. Just not in 2008.

“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.” – Aldous Huxley

From year to year when the Academy Award Nominations are announced, showcasing the best in that particular years’ cinematic entertainment, there is always a little film that slides in and pulls just a little bit of recognition away from the big boys. For every THE DEPARTED, there’s a LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE. For every NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN there’s a JUNO. For every Martin Scorsese there’s a Jason Reitman.

So in a year where Chase Utley, Lance Berkman, and Chipper Jones are putting up monstrous numbers in the National League, for your consideration I give you…

Ryan Ludwick.

And like those little films that get nominated for the Oscar, Ludwick should get some serious consideration for his league’s top honor at the end of the year.

On June 11th, the day the Cardinals placed all-universe slugger Albert Pujols on the DL with a calf injury; Ludwick hit his team leading 16th home run, good for 6th in the National League.

His other numbers through June 11th were just as spicy. Ludwick was 6th in the National League in batting with a .321 average, 2nd in Slugging with a lofty .684 and his On-Base Percentage was a robust .393.

Ludwick is in the top ten in virtually every offensive statistic in the National League. His 52 runs batted in are good for 4th place. His 37 extra-base hits are good for 6th place. And for all you Sabermetric types out there, his 1.055 OPS is good for 4th place. And he currently has 51 Runs Created, good for 10th in the NL.

When you consider that this is Ludwick’s first season as a full time player, the numbers become even more impressive. Prior to this year, Ryan Ludwick had one season in which he had over 300 at-bats, and that was last year as a part time bench player, part time starter. If no injuries cut him down this year, Ludwick will easily get between 550 and 600 plate appearances.

If Ludwick stays on his current pace, in games played, plate appearances and overall statistical output, his final 2008 numbers should look something like this:

• At-bats: 550
• Hits: 175
• Doubles; 49
• Home Runs: 41
• Runs Batted In: 127
• Runs scored: 104
• Steals: 10
• Bases on Balls: 65
• Batting Average: .314
• On-base Percentage: .387
• Slugging Percentage: .618
• OPS: 1.005

Add to those numbers this interesting fact: Ludwick is on pace to ground into only 6 double plays for the entire 2008 season. Throw in his solid if not spectacular play in right field and you have not only an All Star in the making but most definitely a legitimate MVP candidate.

For those of you who are still not convinced Mr. Ludwick has the look of a Most Valuable Player, take this into consideration: The numbers that Ludwick is putting up are very similar to the numbers his perennial MVP candidate teammate Albert Pujols puts up year in and year out. And Pujols, from 2001 to 2006, finished no lower than 4th in the NL MVP voting.

Now, I realize that Utley, Berkman and Chipper will all most likely, if they don’t get hurt and continue on their current paces, have as good if not better season than Ludwick. But they were all supposed to have great seasons. Ludwick’s year is like that little film I described earlier. It catches everyone off guard. This may be to his advantage come voting time.

The next three to six weeks will really tell the tale. Pujols will be gone for at least 15 games, and maybe twice that. If the Cardinals fall, and drop off of the radar in his absence, Ludwick will be just another player having a nice individual season.

But if the Cardinals keep pace, or better still, catch and pass the Cubs in that time span, and Ludwick leads the charge on the field and in the batter’s box, he will have to be taken more than seriously.

He may be the front runner.

There’s a vast array of statistics available to analyze and interpret offensive performance. But I’ve come up with a simple statistic that seems to be missing from the current toolkit. It’s a ratio measuring how many runners a team puts on base will actually score over the course of a season.

I’ll call this scoring efficiency, and it’s calculated by dividing (runners left on base) by (runs scored). It comes from the basic notion that the most offensively successful teams are those that are the most efficient at bringing their runners home. It was inspired by the frustration of listening to some Mariners broadcasts a few weeks ago and realizing how often they were getting eight or more hits in a game while scoring at most a few runs in the game.

The scoring efficiency ratio doesn’t account for park effects, or a team’s double plays, times caught stealing, or the other ways a base runner can be put out. You would, of course, need to tweak the numbers a bit to account for those factors.  And, teams with an exceptionally high or low number of homers could see skewed ratios because homers score someone who wasn’t on base. But homers tend to largely offset a team’s double plays and caught stealings, helping erase the distortion created by those factors. So the ratio, even though it could use some refinement, still gives a pretty good accounting for how well a team converts its times on base into runs scored.

Of course it makes sense that good offenses will generally lead their team to winning seasons. And it seems to make sense that good offenses, even though they should leave more runners on, will more than make up for that by scoring a larger percentage of their runners than basement dwellers. To see the extent to which this might be true, I’ve used data on team won-lost records, runs scored, and runners left on base for the 1989, 2001, and 2002 seasons. Clearly the sheer number of runs scored is the simplest and perhaps best way to judge a team’s offense. But, while you’d need to analyze data from many more seasons to know whether it’s true, these three seasons certainly show at least a fairly consistent inverse relationship between the scoring efficiency ratio and winning percentage.

There’s the caveat that this ratio is just one element that might explain why a team succeeds. The 2002 A’s, after all, won 103 games despite a 1.5 ratio that ranked near the bottom of the AL. But, teams winning 90 or more games in these three years are usually among the top of the scoring efficiency ratio. And, their exceptionally high scoring efficiency ratios point to one of the big reasons why both the ’89 Dodgers and the ’01 Mets failed to return to the postseason.

One of the odd things to notice in these charts is that from 1989 to 2001 and 2002 the number of runners being left on remained pretty much constant even though the number of runs being scored rose significantly. Again, the power explosion that happened in the interval probably explains most and maybe all of this narrowing of the ratio. The low number for LOB is 1,024 by the Expos in ’01, and the high is 1,308 by the Red Sox in ’89. Compare that to the gap between the 927 runs for Mariners in ’01 and the 554 runs for the Dodgers in ’89. This surprised me, but apparently the level of batting averages and walks drawn by teams remains more consistent than slugging percentages do, and that’s what creates the disparity. Also, over these three years the National League posted higher ratios than the American League, presumably because of the difference between the pitcher hitting and the DH hitting.

It would be interesting to go back through the decades to see if the first disparity persists and if the ratios for the two leagues converge in the absence of a DH. Neither Baseball Reference nor Retrosheet appear to have team LOB data beyond the box scores for individual games, although it must be collected somewhere. Here’s the LOB data for the three seasons, with 1989 coming thanks to Athlon’s Baseball ’90 preview. You can find your way to team LOB data for seasons from 2001 onward yourself at http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/stats-archive.htm.

Editor’s Note: Read more about the topic at Retrosheet http://retrosheet.org/Research/BinghamB/Whats%20so%20bad.pdf

Ichiro is overrated – there can be no doubt about that. He has a great arm, produces a great batting average and steals efficiently. But when are we living? 1950? When batting average was the king of evaluation tools? I think not. Production is the name of the game, and Ichiro simply doesn’t produce at the rate with which he should, given his reputation and his salary.

Ichiro has an OPS+ this year of 104, so basically he’s just a teeny bit above league average. David DeJesus is at 113 and Tony Clark is at 100. Point made? Yes, I know OPS doesn’t take defense and steals in consideration, but Ichiro would have to be stealing a base every time he’s on board and/or not letting anything touch the centerfield grass to have much more value than DeJesus right now.

But Ichiro is having a down year, you clamor? Yes, he is, but not by that much. His career OPS+ is 118 – good for just 43rd among active hitters. Here’s who Ichiro is surrounded by in that list:

• 39. Cliff Floyd (119)
• 39. Luis Gonzalez (119)
• 39. Matt Stairs (119)
• 39. Mike Sweeney (119)
• 43. Ichiro Suzuki (118)
• 44. Eric Chavez (117)
• 45. Carlos Beltran (116)

For the record, Tony Clark is 56th on this list at 113.

Again, these numbers don’t take into consideration steals and defense, but even without them, Ichiro should be far above the Cliff Floyds and Mike Sweeneys of the world given his reputation and $17M salary.

Irregardless (as those Bostonians like to say – improperly), of salary, here are 12 outfielders I’d rather have manning the outfield than Ichiro.

1. Ryan Braun – after a slow start, the 24-year old has an OPS+ of 129
2. Lance Berkman – career OPS+ of 149; one of the best hitters over the past decade
3. BJ Upton – his career OPS+ is approaching Ichiro’s (116 versus 118), and the best is ahead for the 23-year-old
4. Magglio Ordonez – career OPS+ of 129; give me a slugger over a slap-hitter any day
5. Manny Ramirez – he plays the fool, but 600 home runs and 2,000 RBIs are a possibility; a career OPS+ of 154
6. Nick Markakis – just 24, playing on a bad team and improving his OPS+ each year (106, 121 and now 138)
7. Hunter Pence – another young one; he struggled early and his OPS+ is just 105, but I have faith
8. Corey Hart – can steal a base, hit the long one and hit for average; the 26-year-old has a career OPS+ of 115 and is on the uptick
9. Josh Hamilton – speaking of uptick, he has an OPS+ of 152 this year and possibly might get better
10. Pat Burrell – the anti-Ichiro: someone who’s been the target of fans despite producing; since 2005, his OPS+ has been 128, 122, 127 and now 156.
11. Jason Bay – people (including yours truly) got too down on him last year when he was recovering from injury; his career OPS+ is 131 and he’s at 146 this year.
12. Vladimir Guerrero – slumped early, but his OPS+ is still 117; heating up now; 147 career OPS+

And here are some guys who come close:

• Alfonso Soriano – well, maybe not; even before the injury Soriano was one of those guys I always associate with underperformance
• Carl Crawford – hasn’t taken that step from bordering on really good to really good; has his development stopped?
• Grady Sizemore – see Crawford above
• Carlos Beltran – his OPS+ is just 116; seems like it should be higher; hitting in the .260’s and .270s will do that to you
• Adam Dunn – OPS+ of 130, but I’m a little scared; couldn’t he drive that batting average up a bit or learn how to hit a sac fly?
• Aaron Rowand – he’s proving that last year wasn’t a fluke
• Justin Upton - an OPS+ of 104 is pretty dang impressive for a 20-year-old
• Barry Bonds – I almost put him in the first list; for one season, who would make more of a positive impact: Bonds or Ichiro?

Guys who the jury is still out on

• Nate McClouth
• Jacoby Ellsbury
• Carlos Quentin
• Ryan Church
• Jay Bruce

Guys who should be better but aren’t

• Alex Rios – what happened?
• Andruw Jones – could have gone done as one of the greatest; may go down as a joke
• Matt Holiday – maybe he should be a column; his career OPS+ at home is 131; on the road it’s 68. Don’t sign him to a big deal, Colorado, and buyer beware. He’s not that good of a player.
• Carlos Lee – CC, I mean Carlos, should be better. His career OPS+ is just 114. Fewer burgers = better OPS+.

Guys who I have no clue about (and I’m scared of for putting in this category)

• Milton Bradley – having a great year, but you never know what might happen; am I being too negative here? – should I watch my back?

With two+ months of the season gone let’s take a quick look at how everyone is doing, or not doing. As everyone knows, there have been many surprises, some good and some not so good and we’ve seen some very good young players having a big early season impact. There have been some key injuries, debate and instant replay and no managerial firings.

The Rays are in first place – or they were recently – and they’ve been doing it the old fashioned way: pitching and defense. No one on offense is tearing it up, but they’ve had some great clutch hitting. And to this point Carlos Pena seems to be proving that perhaps last year’s monster season was an exception and not the rule. B.J. Upton has finally found a position, and playing every day seems to have relaxed him and let his considerable natural talents finally surface. Dioner Navarro has become the hitter several scouts thought he could be – not just a good defensive player. The Delmon Young trade is so far proving to be a good one for the Rays as Bartlett has stabilized the shortstop position and Matt Garza has been steady in the starting rotation. New closer Troy Percival (now on the DL) has done the job on the field and in the clubhouse. Rookie Evan Longoria is finding his way at the plate and has played a solid third base. Scott Kazmir has been lights out, Jamie Shields is reaching his potential and Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine have helped out at the rotation’s back end. The Rays’ defense is what has really made the difference. They have committed only 28 errors – best in the American League. Manager Joe Maddon has this team believing, and that could be bad news for the Red Sox and the Yankees.

The Red Sox have been unbeatable at home and not so good on the road. They are in their usual spot, at or near the top in the AL East, but the Dice K and David Ortiz injuries, if long term, might be too much for even their productive farm system to overcome. Dice K was finally pitching like the Red Sox had hoped for in 2007, and while Ortiz didn’t have the power numbers of the last few seasons, he was still producing. Manny hit number 500 and is doing his usual clutch hitting and J.D. Drew is still in the lineup and producing. Kevin Youkilis and Mike Lowell are repeating last season’s fine offensive performances and even Coco Crisp has contributed. Jonathan Papelbon is again lights out and John Lester and veteran Bartolo Colon have picked up the slack for the missing Curt Schilling and inconsistent John Beckett. Sean Casey has done a very nice job and will be counted on more heavily as Ortiz recovers. Jacoby Ellsbury has begun to hit and already has 28 steals; he, along with Dustin Pedroia, are having solid sophomore seasons. They’ll be right there at the end and have already shown they can beat the Rays, at least at home.

The Blue Jays can’t seem to hit much this year and have again been hit by key injuries, although not as many and not for the extended periods of time as in 2007. Scott Rolen has been very good and has been healthy since his early season DL trip. David Eckstein, although batting ninth in the order now and coming off an injury, is still the sparkplug the Jays hoped for when they signed him over the winter. Alex Rios has been unproductive power and RBI wise, but some of that is due to his batting in the leadoff spot for a time. Still, it’s a big drop from last year’s breakout season and something that must be of concern to Blue Jays officials. Vernon Wells missed a month due to injury but still leads the team in RBIs (27). It’s been the pitching that has the Jays still in the race for the east. Toronto has the third lowest ERA (3.49) and most complete games (7). Doc Halladay is back to his old self, and while A.J. Burnett has been his usual inconsistent self, he has remained healthy. B.J. Ryan is back as the closer and his awesome self and Shawn Marcum, Jesse Litsch and Dustin McGowan have been at least solid all season. The middle relief has been outstanding this season. If this team ever gets the offense going, they could be dangerous.

The Yankees are starting to hit, and the return of Jorge Posada can only be good news. The young starting pitchers, except for Joba Chamberlain, (forget his first start of the season), have been disappointing so far, but Mariano Rivera is still pitching like a kid. And Chien Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte and, yes, even Mike Mussina are getting the job done. The Yankees have had some pleasant surprises with middle relief, (Chris Britton and Brian Bruney), but LaTroy Hawkins has been brutal and Kyle Farnsworth typically inconsistent. If Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy had been able to do their jobs, the Yankees would have left Joba in the set-up role, where he was unhittable. If the Yankees get to the playoffs, it will be at the hands of the offense. That’s what happened last year, and they’re starting to roll again. Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano are having a down year, but their track record is too solid for that to continue.

The Orioles seem to be buying what manager Dave Trembley is selling. But even getting the maximum effort out of his players won’t help Trembley and the Orioles that much; they just don’t have the players to contend. They’re still saddled with players like Melvin Mora, Ramon Hernandez and Jay Payton. Offense remains a problem, and the starting pitching scares me after Jeremy Guthrie. Daniel Cabrera continues to be very good or very bad, with walks still a problem. But in the bullpen, closer George Sherrill has 19 saves and Matt Albers has an ERA of 2.01. Andrew Loewen is hurt again and thus far the centre piece of the Erik Bedard trade, Adam Jones, hasn’t. But Jones is young and Trembley, to his credit, is sticking with him. Baltimore still doesn’t have a major league shortstop or first baseman and are only a Brian Roberts or Nick Markakis injury away from dropping permanently into last place.

I’m still a little emotionally drained from last night’s Mets win. I think it may have been the first time in my entire life as a Mets fan, that I didn’t jump out of my seat, pump my fist in the air, and yell out a big “YEAH”, like I usually do when we win the game on a walk-off hit … especially when it’s a home run … especially when it’s in extra innings.

Relief. That was the only emotion I felt. Rather than listening to the post-game show on SNY like I normally do, I instead turned off my TV and hit the sack.

I don’t know exactly why I felt that way. I assume it was due in part because of my feelings for the way Mike Pelfrey pitched. He showed me his heart and in return my own heart opened up for his brilliant performance. At the time, it was the best game I had watched all season. I was proud also of the great plays the Mets made in the field to support Pelfrey. Prouder even of the timely hitting. I was seeing the best effort the Mets had delivered all season long. And then I saw Willie Randolph heading toward the mound in the ninth inning – the same mound where Mike Pelfrey was wrapping up the most storied and spectacular win of the season for the New York Mets.

The Mets let a brilliant moment escape them last night. Although the Mets won, had the game ended as a complete game shutout by their first round draft pick, Mike Pelfrey, it would have been more than just a win. It would have been one for the ages. It would have been one of those magical Mets moments that we could have reflected upon someday, saying “I remember that game like it was yesterday. It was the day the 2008 Mets came alive and went on to win the World Series. It was the day that Mike Pelfrey became the ace of the staff.”

They say a win is a win, and last night was certainly an example of that. You usually say those words to console yourself after an ugly win. The truth of the matter is that all wins are not created equal. Last night could have been a magical win. An electrifying win. An unforgettable win. A win to top all other wins.

That’s why I’m not jumping for joy. We missed a golden opportunity to do something that could have resonated for years and years to come. We missed that opportunity by just one-half inning. Only three outs. Only one awe-inspiring moment.

Mike Pelfrey deserved the chance to deliver a performance that would have etched his name in Mets fans’ hearts forever. He deserved a chance at Mets immortality. All of you saw the look on his face after that home run. Some of you may have seen him walking alone as left the dugout and slowly made his way down the tunnel and into the clubhouse with his head staring at the ground the entire way. His spirit was crushed. He knew he could have finished the game and he believed he had it in him to get that complete game shutout.

Instead of celebrating Pelfrey’s coming out party, we all took a deep breath as we watched Beltran’s homer disappear into the night, and we all let out a collective sigh of relief when it sailed over the wall. Relief. That’s all I felt. Relief.

Read more by Joe D. at http://metsmerizedonline.com.

Watching a baseball team win for the first time is analogous to dating. Initially, the prospect seems perfect – they all do at first – and we’re bursting with hope and anticipation. Then, after closer scrutiny, one notices little flaws – peculiar comments and habits or a below average bullpen. We convince ourselves that these shortcomings aren’t too serious; after all, no one’s perfect. Then comes the first ugly incident – an intense argument or horrendous road trip – and we realize that maybe this isn’t “the one.”

Of course, eventually we do find “the one” and, similarly, sometimes the baseball team lives up too our hopes.

Are the Tampa Bay Rays a summer romance certain to go wrong or are they a “keeper?”

One method of addressing this question is to determine whether the Rays are over-performing (and thus likely to falter) or if they’re playing at a level commensurate with their ability. The tables below list Rays’ players career OPS+ (or ERA+ for pitchers) as well as their 2007 and 2008 OPS+.

(minimum 75 at bats)

(minimum 20 games or 30 innings pitched)

Among Rays’ batters only Eric Hinske, Dioner Navarro and Gabe Gross are performing significantly above their established level of production. Hinske is finally performing again at the level that won him Rookie of the Year honors in 2002. While his 2008 production exceeds his career record, it’s not a performance level that he’s never previously approached – Hinske is not certain to decline.

The same cannot be said of Navarro. A career .247 hitter prior to 2008, Navarro is enjoying the best season of his career. A positive observation is that Navarro is only 24, so he may still be in the process of determining his typical production. Nevertheless, it’s likely that Navarro will slow down during the second half of the season.

Likewise, Gabe Gross has an OPS+ of 118 (in only 90 at bats) since arriving from Milwaukee; this will probably decrease toward career norms as he collects more plate appearances.

Interestingly, three players – Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena (currently on the 15 day disabled list), and Jason Bartlett – have posted an OPS+ well below their career norms. As well as the Rays have played in 2008, they’ll improve should these three players return to their established production levels.

It’s more good news among Rays’ starting pitchers. Only the young Edwin Jackson, in his second season as a starter, is performing above expectations. He may decline or he may be maturing into the pitcher he’ll become – the remainder of the 2008 season will tell us which direction he’s heading.

Scott Kazmir won’t maintain his staggering 298 ERA+, but one would expect him to remain the outstanding pitcher that he is.

If there’s cause for concern, it resides in the Rays’ much-heralded bullpen. Gary Glover, J.P. Howell and Dan Wheeler are all pitching far better than their career norms. This makes them candidates to decline over the coming months. Added to the Rays’ list of worries is the health of Troy Percival, currently on the 15 day disabled list. Can the Rays’ continue to rely on Percival, who’ll be 39 in August, to close games?

So what are the Rays’ prospects for the rest of 2008?

The Rays’ performance shouldn’t be surprising. Most of the Rays’ are playing at levels that match their previously established ability. In terms of OPS+, Evan Longoria gives the 2008 Rays a marked advantage over the 2007 model. The Rays’ lineup appears sound and may even get better if Carl Crawford gets on track.

The starting pitching is also performing according to expectations; the relief corps, on the other hand, is over-achieving.

In terms of correlating 2008 OPS+ and ERA+ to career norms, the Rays are legitimate contenders to win their division. In the final analysis, of course, there are many factors that OPS+ and ERA+ cannot capture. The Rays play intelligent baseball – “smart” doesn’t slump. Will they stay away from injury? Will they continue to mature? So what if some of the Rays’ relievers are having career years – show us a championship team that doesn’t include players enjoying abnormally productive seasons – radical departures from career norms do occur. There’s also experience; of the 22 players listed in the charts above only six (Bartlett, Hinske, Floyd, Miller, Percival and Wheeler) have appeared in the post-season. Will the Rays be able to handle the strain of a pennant race?

If dating and baseball are analogous we won’t know until September whether the Rays are a “keeper.” In the meantime, they’re certainly worth asking out again

Reprinted with permission of www.YESNetwork.com. Part III in a Three-Part Series; read Part I and Part II

Yankees legend, YES analyst, shares inspirational story in his new book

When it comes to Bobby & Kay, higher powers are their partners. The family of Dr. Samuel Hassenbusch made an unexpected trip to New York, just to say hello.

Dr. Hassenbusch was a Houston neurosurgeon who developed glioblastoma, the same deadly brain cancer he treated. Nearly three years after he was diagnosed and nine months after cancerous cells recurred, Dr. Hassenbusch lost his battle in January at the age of 54. The Murcers learned of his plight during a televised interview with Katie Couric last March and arranged a meeting before receiving treatment at Anderson.

Dr. Hassenbusch’s message was, “Life doesn’t have to end just because you have cancer,” recalls Kay. Seeing how he coped with glioblastoma was a beacon of hope.

“That was like, ‘Oh my gosh!’ That’s when Bobby decided, ‘I want to be the same guy for somebody else,’” Kay said. “Sam was very much instrumental, and told Bobby about setting goals and what to do in their very first meeting. He was extremely important to us.”

There was Rhonda, Dr. Hassenbusch’s wife of 35 years, with her three children at the front of the line. Dr. and Mrs. Hassenbusch took 33 business trips in 33 months, which included a speaking engagement from the Capital. Sam loved baseball, and loved Bobby more. Their common thread is defying the odds. Sam was given 12 months to live, he survived 33. Another person close to Brain Tumor Foundation of New York executive director Zeesy Schnur was given mere months. He lived a full and quality life for six more years.

“Every new patient is a new hope and longer time,” Rhonda Hassenbusch said. “My husband wanted to get out there that you set your goals, you keep going and don’t let them give you a death sentence. You use the cards you’re dealt and move with them.”

And so Bobby’s battle is ongoing. In their roles as NYC Brain Tumor Foundation spokespersons, Bobby and Kay created public service announcements about early detection set to launch this summer, which encourage people to see their doctors, get screened and ask the right questions. On November 19, Bobby will be honored at The Brain Tumor Foundation Dinner – The Journey Begins at the Pierre hotel in New York City.

“I told our president,” said Schnur, present for Wednesday’s book signing, “I wish you had seen this. There was such a love and warmth for Bobby. It was palpable.”

It’s fitting that Bobby is playing a different type of hero. When he debuted with the Yankees in 1965, he was hailed as the next Mickey Mantle at a time when the franchise’s latest dynasty had ended and the team fell to sixth-place finish at 77-85.

“The Yankees were anxious for a hero and Murcer fit the bill perfectly,” Negron said. “When you look at pictures of him in a Yankee uniform in those days, nobody ever looked better in a Yankee uniform. Bobby Murcer was cool. He was the next Mickey Mantle, and in class dignity and pride, he was every bit of that times 10.”

Bobby’s aura hasn’t faded with time. Rather, he and Kay are guiding lights. One fan approached Kay and asked her to sign his book. Kay obliged and added the universal symbol for hugs and kisses (xo). “My little thing,” she said. Bobby’s little thing has been standing up to an insidious disease like the schoolyard bully with bark but no bite. The bell curve for Bobby’s form of glioblastoma is 14 months. He’s been working and living with it for 17 and counting, because Bobby Murcer has never – and will never – accept defeat.

More to the point, there is a lot more work to be done.

“God continues to keep me around,” Bobby said. “I think he has something for me to do.”

Jon Lane is the lead editorial producer for the YES Network’s Official Web site. A veteran writer with more than 13 years of experience, Jon has covered the Yankees since 2003 and has had articles published in ESPN The Magazine, Newsday, Yankees Magazine and College and Pro Football Newsweekly, among other publications.

Chipper Jones

• Atlanta Braves
• Third base

Categorization

• Elite

Categorization Scale:

• Elite: top player at his position (Alex Rodriguez, George Brett, Mike Schmidt)
• Premium: top five at his position (Wade Boggs)
• Good: top 10 at his position; occasional All-Star
• Average: everyday position player
• Key role: part-time or platoon player

Grades (20-80 scale)

Overall:  70

Batting: 70

• Power: 65
• Contact: 75
• Average: 70

Running: 60

• Speed: 60
• Base Running:  70 
• Instinct: 80

Fielding: 75

• Hands: 80
• Footwork: 70
• Range: 65  

Throwing: 70

• Release: 75
• Arm Strength: 65
• Arm Accuracy: 80

Overall

Chipper Jones has been an elite player for the past decade – a consistent force in the middle of the Braves’ line-up and a Gold Glove caliber defender. He has finished in the top 25 of the National League MVP vote in 11 of his 13 full seasons.

He ranks ninth in career Adjusted OPS+ (the sum of a batter’s on-base percentage and slugging percentage, adjusted for the batter’s era and ballpark, with 100 being average), which puts the future Hall of Famer in good company:

Active Adjusted OPS+ leaders (minimum 3,000 plate appearances)

1. Albert Pujols: 168
2. Frank Thomas: 157
3. Manny Ramirez: 154
4. Lance Berkman: 149
5. Jim Thome: 149
6. Alex Rodriguez: 148
7. Jason Giambi: 147
8. Vladimir Guerrero: 147
9. Chipper Jones: 145
10. Todd Helton: 142

Though a strained leg muscle has slowed Jones down recently, he’s having the best year of his career. Jones’ National League rankings:

• 1st in Batting Average (.420)
• 1st in On-Base Percentage (.506)
• 8th in Runs (44)
• 3rd in Total Bases (149)
• 9th in Home Runs (15)
• 1st in Adjusted OPS+ (212)

Advance Update

There are three reasons for Jones’ success this year and on an ongoing basis:

1. Mechanics. Chipper has a good start to his swing, which means he is short to that ball. In other words, he has a more direct path to the contact point. The opposite would be a loop, where the batter gets underneath from the start of his swing and has a more indirect, and usually more inconsistent, path to the ball. Being short to the ball enables Jones to hit the ball to all parts of the field and wait longer before committing to swinging. He thus gets a better read on each pitch.

2. Experience. Chipper’s experience helps him in ways that are difficult to measure. He knows the game, knows particular situations and has a good command on the pitchers he faces. That gives him an advantage in individual match-ups.

3. Good fortune. It’s a good time to be a major leaguer with the talent of a Chipper Jones because of the poor state of pitching. Most teams struggle to develop and field strong pitching staffs (despite the vast resources available to them), as witnessed by the fact that the following were Opening Day starters this year:

• Odalis Perez (Washington)
• Jeremy Guthrie (Baltimore)
• Gil Meche (Kansas City)
• Livan Hernandez (Minnesota)
• Kevin Millwood (Texas)
• Ian Snell (Pittsburgh)
• Mark Hendrickson (Tampa Bay)
• Kip Wells (Colorado)
• Kyle Lohse (St. Louis)

Strengths

• Clutch performer
• Power from both sides of the plate (.566 slugging as a lefty and .508 as a righty for his career)
• Plus defender, capable of playing third base, left field and first base
• Great instincts on the bases
• Can hit to all fields, which makes him more difficult to defend
• Large hitting zone, which enables him to take advantage of more mistake pitches

Weaknesses

• Injuries have been a problem with Jones since 2003. After playing in 153 games in 2003, he’s tallied 137, 109, 110 and 134 since. He’s missed just six games this year, but he’s been struggling with a leg strain.
• No longer has great speed and isn’t much of a base stealing threat. He had 97 steals in his first six seasons, but has only 39 over the past eight seasons, including this year.
• Defensively he’s lost a step from his range.

Defense

Chipper has some of the best angles to the ground balls of any third baseman. He’s able to move right or left better than moving forward and backward, which is okay since as a third baseman most balls are hit to his left or right. Chipper reads the first hop as well as anyone in the game, and he’s able to anticipate based on the start of a hitter’s swing.

More Numbers

Jones’ career rankings among active players:

• 14th in Games (1,954)
• 9th in Batting Average (.310)
• 9th in On-Base Percentage (.407)
• 11th in Slugging Percentage (.550)
• 13th in Runs (1,340)
• 11th in Home Runs (401)
• 12th in RBIs (1,340)
• 6th in Walks (1,191)
  

With the MLB draft behind us and the NECBL season just beginning, the Sanford Mainers are off to a 2-0 in baseball’s summer session.

The first victory came Saturday night, as catcher Kevin Reimer homered to lead the Mainers to a 2-1 victory over the Lowell All Americans.

This year’s team has the look and feel of a power-hitting team. Though Sanford’s field isn’t friendly to right-handed batters (415 feet to center field), the short right porch (just 295 feet) makes it conducive to lefties. But they’ll have to pull it straight down the line, because the right-field wall juts out quickly.

With the feel of a power-hitting team comes the look of a team that isn’t going to be good on the bases. That could be a problem because Coach Brown loves to steal. In Sunday’s 5-3 win over the Danbury Westerners, four Mainers were caught stealing. But this is just the first week, and Coach Brown likes to push the players quickly and early to see what he has to work with. He’ll adjust.

Three former Mainers were selected in the MLB draft. With the 994th overall pick the Oakland A’s took RHP Shawn Haviland from Harvard. Jeremy Beckham (brother to #1 overall pick Tim Beckham) went with the 503rd pick (17th round), joining his brother with the Rays. The Reds selected Tyler Stovall with the 599th pick. We hosted Stovall last here (I wrote about him here), and he’s a great kid – easy to root for. Hopefully Haviland, Beckham and Stovall will join former Mainers Andy Sonnanstine and Kevin Slowey in The Show.

What’s Going on With Miguel Cabrera, Vlad Guerrero and C.C. Sabathia?

Miguel Cabrera isn’t having the year that his fantasy owners wanted. He’s slugging just .453 after being at .568 and .565 the past two years. But if you’re in a keeper league, there’s no reason to panic. Ride it out. His struggles are understandable considering:

• He’s playing in a new league and doesn’t yet know the pitchers. He’ll make the proper adjustments soon enough.
• The Tigers haven’t played well, and Cabrera is probably pressing some to make up for the offensive woes of Gary Sheffield, Curtis Granderson and to a lesser extent Ivan Rodriguez.
• Signing the big contract and the pressure that comes with the enhance expectations probably means Cabrera is pressing even more.

Recommendation: Hold/Buy. If you’re thinking of trading Cabrera, you’ll probably only get offers from owners looking to buy cheap. No sense in doing that, especially in keeper leagues. Cabrera is just 25 and has a lot of talent. After he adjusts to the new league, his numbers should be back to where they were in Florida, though his home run count may be a tad lower due to the effects of playing at Comerica Park. Of course, if someone else owns Cabrera, see what you can get him for.

**********

Vlad Guerrero, like Miguel Cabrera, is disappointing fantasy owners. He’s slugging just .460 – well below his career average of .575. So what’s going on?

1. Although he is a prolific bad ball hitter, Guerrero is chasing too many pitches out of the zone – even for him. It looks like he’s trying too hard to make things happen.
2. He’s been battling nagging injuries throughout the season, and his body isn’t doing what he wants it to; that again makes a player press too much.
3. He misses the injured Chone Figgins, the Angels’ sparkplug, who’s played just once since May 3rd.

Recommendation: Hold/Buy. If Guerrero had struggled last year, maybe his early problems this year would be indicative of a trend. But he didn’t struggle last year – he finished third in AL MVP voting. Once he gets Figgins back in front of him and when some of the nagging injuries heal, he’ll be fine. And if the injuries don’t heal, he’ll find a way to come close to his normal numbers; he’s a hard worker and will do whatever it takes to succeed. Expect Guerrero to end up close to his normal numbers: 30 home runs, 120 RBIs and a .300+ batting average.

**********

With his terrible start this year – his free agency walk year – C.C. Sabathia has probably cost himself a good amount of change. But that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t shy from acquiring him on the cheap, or semi-cheap. Yes, he has a 4.34 ERA – up from 3.22 and 3.21 the previous two years. Yes, his walk rate has doubled (2.8 per nine innings versus 1.4 a year ago). But throw out his first four starts, after which his ERA stood at a terrible 13.50, and over the past 10 starts his ERA has been 2.09 and his walk rate has been 1.7/nine innings. He’s just 4-5 over those starts, but that’s a function of the Indians offense, not Sabathia. In other words, Sabathia is pitching like Sabathia.

Recommendation: A Big Hold if you already own him, and a “You Can Give it The Old College Try” Buy. But after his recent performance, including his shutout over the Twins last night, it’s going to be tough to pry him away from the owner that’s still steaming over Sabathia’s early attack on the team ERA.

Willie Fraser was California’s first round pick (15th overall) in the 1985 draft. He pitched eight years in the Majors, for the Angels, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Marlins and Expos, and three in Japan with the Orix Blue Wave. He was part of Orix’s 1996 championship team. Willie played professionally for 15 years and never was on the disabled list. Since his playing days he has been a scout and consultant. Have a question for Willie? Email him at writers@dugoutcentral.com.

Chris Donnels also contributed to this report.

I’ve completely had it with this Mets roster. I’m tired of the same old tired players playing the same old tired baseball. It’s not that I don’t like guys like Damion Easley, Marlon Anderson, Moises Alou and all the other tired old veterans, I just think we have too many players like this. I feel like we went from having one Julio Franco in 2006 to a dozen of them in 2008. I just can’t take it anymore.

I have become so envious of every team we play who has rookies and second year players who contribute to their team’s success, just like the Mets did when Wright and Reyes first came up. We don’t need all of the kids to be instant stars, and God knows the veterans we have been enduring are not stars, but I can take a .245 average and 8 home runs and 30 RBI from a rookie and let out a big smile, as opposed to seeing that kind of production from a player who is getting paid $16M.

The Mets need a major shake-up. We need a full throttle infusion of youth and exuberance, and it’s available to us free of charge right in our own minor league system.

It’s time to pull the plug on the life support machines that are populating a good portion of the roster. It’s time to bring up Mike Carp and Chris Aguila and treat the fans to some good old fashioned fun and excitement. Call up Jon Niese and a couple of the other young relievers and give them a shot. Some minor league numbers for you:

Mike Carp, 1B: .351, 9 HR, 38 RBI
Chris Aguila, OF: .308, 17 HR, 40 RBI
Valentino Pascucci, OF: .298, 11 HR, 29 RBI
Tony Armas, P: 2.09 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 82 IP, 66 K, 16 BB

These players may or may not succeed right away, but they would at least be a breath of fresh air. Armas and Pascucci have already been around the block a few times, but they’re looking for fresh starts. Armas should get a shot at filling a rotation spot, while Pascucci could fill in at right field and provide a boost from the bench.

Carp and Aguila have skyrocketed back into phenom status this season and look ready for the challenge. We would need to move Delgado and part ways with half of our current bench in order to give them plenty of playing time and valuable at-bats.

Aguila could play every day in left field, and would add a solid right handed bat to the lineup. It would mean the end of an everyday job for Alou, who would become a great bat on our bench and occasional starter. Carp would take over at first base and hopefully a Delgado trade could net us a couple of mid level prospects that could help us down the road.

I know I’m just rambling, and that the truth is that none of these scenarios are likely to play out. But if the mere thought of such moves is exciting, imagine how exciting they’d be if they actually happened.

Read more from Joe D. at http://metsmerizedonline.com.