Starting Monday, March 2 (this upcoming Monday) Abrams and Bettes is going to 3 hours, 7-10pm ET! We have some new segments planned and we want your involvement in the show. I always thought it would be fun to do the show with a live studio audience, but since that isn't possible the closest we can get to it is using your emails and "tweets." You can follow us on by searching for abramsandbettes and look for a Facebook page, that's coming soon!

One of the new segments we will have is called "Yourcasting." We want to answer your weather questions, especially those based on weather photos and video you've taken. Send in the below information and we'll answer it live on air. It's important that you send in ALL the below information!

Name
City
Photo/Video
Question/comment you want answered/discussed
Picture of yourself suitable for TV via picture or webcam

Start sending them in to abramsandbettes@weather.com, so we can have some ready for the first week in our new timeslot!

That's the name of a weekly podcast hosted by James Spann, a TV meteorologist in Alabama. Yes, that James Spann. You might recall him achieving international notoriety a couple of years ago. It had something to do with a certain, uh, TWC blog, in response to which he posted one of his own (as did I). The Drudge Report linked to his blog, and the rest, as they say, is history. In fact, comments to the entry continue getting posted two years later -- it's the gift that keeps on giving!

Last month after a presentation I gave at the Steamboat Weather Summit, Dr. Frank Marks, Director of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (HRD), said that he was quite intrigued by the content. Frank has been a guest on the WeatherBrains show in the past and said he thought I ought to be on it, and asked if it was okay if he contacted James in that regard. I said yes, so Frank connected us.

James and another host, Kevin Selle, and I subsequently had a nice set of email exchanges, during which they extended an invitation and I accepted.

The taping was this past Monday night, and the show now exists in perpetuity on the WeatherBrains website, from which the audio can be streamed (icon) or downloaded ("Episode 161" link).

As I reflect on it a few days later, I'm wondering whether in the broadcast/online media there's previously been a discussion of quite that nature: meteorologists having a climate conversation with other meteorologists (no climate scientists involved), including two (James and me) who have the points of view we do, have been so open with our views on global warming, and have the history that we have. I suppose that it must be the first time, especially since I'm apparently the only one publicly "going there" to the extent I have in linking larger-scale changes in climate -- regardless of the cause(s) of those changes -- with day-to-day weather.

As I said at the end of the interview, which they graciously let go longer than is usually the case on the program, there are some who would probably have questioned my wisdom if not my sanity for going into the lions' den like that! However, I found the interactions with James and Kevin as well as co-hosts Brian Peters and J.B. Elliot to be constructive, and I think it's important for meteorologists with different points of view on climate change to be talking to each other as well as doing due diligence in understanding the state of the science.

Furthermore, there is apparently an increasingly deep chasm and in some cases a passionate polarization between [broadcast] meteorologists and climate scientists, and to try to help bridge that gap I'm participating in an exciting venture under the auspices of the Yale Forum on Climate Change and the Media in which workshops in April and June will bring members of those groups together.

The WeatherBrains discussion was an interesting one and the hosts and I didn't agree on everything, but we all did agree that it was a worthwhile dialogue to have, and I appreciated the opportunity to talk about the nature of the weather patterns and events I've documented in my ever-growing compendium of cases.

Starting Monday, March 2 (this upcoming Monday) Abrams and Bettes is going to 3 hours, 7-10pm ET! We have some new segments planned and we want your involvement in the show. I always thought it would be fun to do the show with a live studio audience, but since that isn't possible the closest we can get to it is using your emails and "tweets." You can follow us on by searching for abramsandbettes and look for a Facebook page, that's coming soon!

One of the new segments we will have is called "Yourcasting." We want to answer your weather questions, especially those based on weather photos and video you've taken. Send in the below information and we'll answer it live on air. It's important that you send in ALL the below information!

Name
City
Photo/Video
Question/comment you want answered/discussed
Picture of yourself suitable for TV via picture or webcam

Start sending them in to abramsandbettes@weather.com, so we can have some ready for the first week in our new timeslot!

Lately I have seen a lot of articles and write-ups about burying power lines across the country. From hurricane prone areas, to ice prone areas, to wind prone areas, etc..... Just Google the topic and articles will pop up. I had heard that it costs about $1 million per mile to buy power lines. So I did a little research and found this on the FPL (Florida Power and Light FAQ's)....

"The two key drivers contributing to the cost calculations are labor and materials. Depending on these factors, underground facilities can cost anywhere from $500,000 per mile to more than $4 million per mile. While these figures have a considerable amount of variability, there is a process in place where we generate a "ballpark" estimate to assist in determining the magnitude of the cost a community may be considering."

So how does that compare to overhead lines? I found the below information in this article....

"But the expense of installing underground lines, which can be almost 10 times the cost of new overhead power lines, is the major factor nationwide in whether utilities bury existing lines, said Mike Hyland, vice president of engineering at the American Public Power Association."

That same article talks about the millions spent on tree trimming and the cost to maintain the lines and it mentions that the life span of the underground lines is 20 years less than overhead lines and that the underground lines can still sustain damage.

They have even considered it in the Pacific NW!

I haven't done the math, but it would be interesting to sit down and run the numbers to see which method would be best and most cost effective in the long run, buried or overhead lines. What do you think? Are you for the overhead or buried lines? Let us know by blogging back or emailing us.

Wow -- Lilapsophile -- looks like we should be giving you admin rights to the blog site you are one hundred percent correct, but we'll get to that.

First, since I asked for pictures a couple of days ago, I have to give props to my girl Mary for providing a couple of photos of that snow in Maine. This picture is from Farmington, Maine and I'd like to ask why Mary's mother in law Ruth decided to take this picture from the safety of her house. Come on Ruth -- WE WANT TO REALLY SEE THE SNOW ... GET OUT THERE! Regardless, that was an impressive snowstorm nonetheless and almost makes me miss the northeast (not quite though)! Remember if you ever have any weather photos you want to share, head on over to the Weather Warriors portion of weather.com because we would all love to see em!

OK, so where was I? As Tornado Week winds down (aw sad), the correct answer for all three questions I asked is FALSE. I suppose I could have tried a little harder to trick you guys but believe it or not these are three of the most repeated myths I hear when I meet people outside of The Weather Channel.

So, while Lila answered the questions very much correctly, I'll just give a quick wrap up recap:

1 --
Myth - Areas near rivers, lakes, and mountains are safe from tornadoes.
Truth - No place is safe from tornadoes. In the late 1980's, a tornado swept through Yellowstone National Park leaving a path of destruction up and down a 10,000 ft. mountain.

2 -- (This is one of my personal favorites and I have to admit -- the myth sounds much cooler than the truth ... this is what I always believed when I was a little kid falling in love with violent weather)

Myth - The low pressure with a tornado causes buildings to "explode" as the tornado passes overhead.
Truth -- Violent winds and debris slamming into buildings cause most structural damage.

3 --
Myth - Windows should be opened before a tornado approaches to equalize pressure and minimize damage.
Truth -- Opening windows allows damaging winds to enter the structure. Leave the windows alone; instead, immediately go to a safe place.

So there you go! NOAA has a great little tornado section on their page here if you are interested in learning a bit more.

Anyway, that was a fun game and Lila I'm going to figure out a way to get you some kind of prize (check's in the mail so to speak). Hopefully you guys learned a little something, and are enjoying Tornado Week.

Remember new episodes of Storm Stories are rolling out over the next few weeks so stay tuned.

And just because I always wanted to be one of the cool kids (you know, like Steph and Mike), I'm Twittering now. You can find me at -- jmielcarz. So if you have any behind the scenes questions, fire away, and I'll do my best to get you an answer as long as it doesn't involve anything that questions my moral fibers (which are pretty weak anyway, so give it a shot). Have a great weekend everyone!!

PS -- Don't forget the Disney promotion that has been running the past few weeks is coming to a close, so make sure you enter to win an amazing chance to lead a Disney parade over at:

And since I'm a child (an only child at that), I'll be more than happy to tag along if you are looking for a "plus one"! (Just don't tell my bosses because I'm pretty sure its against the rules.)

We're in the midst of Tornado Week at The Weather Channel. One segment of the Tornado Special featured the Tri-State tornado of March 18, 1925, which rolled across parts of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana. It was the deadliest tornado in United States history, killing 695, and had the longest path, at least 219 miles. It may have been one of fastest-moving, traveling up to 73 mph at times. It was up to a mile wide.

The Tri-State tornado literally struck without warning. It got me to thinking about how far we've come.

There were no tornado watches or warnings issued in 1925. The Weather Bureau (now the National Weather Service) had banned use of the word tornado in the late 1880s out of fear of causing a panic by the public. That ban wouldn't be lifted until 1938. And the first military tornado forecast wasn't made until 1948. The Weather Bureau began issuing public tornado watches in 1952.

Issuing tornado watches even in 1952 was a real challenge. There were surface and upper-air observations, taken by weather balloon -- as now -- but many of the other tools in use today were not available. Satellites didn't come onto the scene until the 1960s. Computer models of the atmosphere didn't begin until the 1960s, and the first ones were really crude.

Tornado warnings now are based primarily on radar. But there were no weather radars operational in the United States until the 1950s. Doppler radar, able to detect the winds within the thunderstorm, wasn't operational until the early 1990s. And even if there had been radar in 1925, people would have had to get warnings almost by "word of mouth." Commercial radio broadcasting was in its infancy. There was no NOAA Weather Radio with tone alert to signal approaching danger. Commercial television didn't really get rolling until 1939. Some people had telephones, and officials in one city might have sent a telegram to its neighbor, if the tornado didn't knock down the telegraph lines.

The "head-in-the-sand" philosophy by the Weather Bureau, in an era prior to television, meant that public awareness wasn't what it is today. Most people got their information -- even weather forecasts -- from newspapers. They had some knowledge of tornadoes, but most people associated the term with a narrow funnel. The Tri-State tornado was so wide that residents didn't recognize the approaching storm as a tornado. Instead they thought it was just a low-hanging cloud or a fog bank.

Future Doppler radars will be able to scan the sky every minute (instead of about 5 minutes now), and computers now have the resolution to predict the individual thunderstorms that spawn tornadoes. All of the advances in technology have made us safer from tornadoes. But until we all have in-home tornado shelters and get personalized tornado warnings -- like TWC's NOTIFY! or a reverse-911 type system, we won't be absolutely safe.

Well you have heard me complain about the poor state of affairs hurricane prone homes are in along U.S. coasts, few are wind resistant. I believe mitigation is our savior from hurricanes. I liken U.S. energy consumption to our hurricane problem. We are extremely wasteful! Some energy experts have estimated that up to 75% of electricity used in the U.S. could be saved through energy efficiency actions! Below, I give you my interpretation of how we might reduce U.S. energy consumption by doing a few very simple things.

First, how is most of U.S. energy used? Roughly 28% is used by transportation, 21% by homes, 33% by industry and 17% is by commercial use. So nearly half "we the people" consume directly via home use and driving. It turns out that much of what I say about homes and transportation below apply to industry and commercial energy users as well.

Reduction in home energy consumption via efficiency can result in great savings. A list of home energy use is estimated below. The U.S. Department of Energy is one source of this information in this blog.

Home energy use is split approximately in the following way:

1) Home heating/cooling 53%
2) Lighting & appliances 24%
3) Water Heating 17%
4) Other 5%

Each fraction varies depending on the characteristics of your home, apartment, condo or duplex and what climate regime you live in within the U.S.

Shamefully, currently almost half of U.S. homes have single pane windows! Energy consumption for home heating and cooling is huge; especially in very cold and very warm climate regions of the U.S. Much of that energy consumption is sailing out the windows and through the attic!

According to the U.S. government an "Energy Star" qualified homes use at least 30% less energy in heating, cooling and hot water than other homes. What is "Energy Star" you ask?

It is basically a more efficient home in 5 ways:

1. Effective Insulation
2. High-Performance Windows
3. Tight Construction and Ducts
4. Efficient Heating and Cooling Equipment
5. Efficient Products

It is possible to make your home more efficient than the average Energy Star home with upgrades beyond their basic requirements. For example, housing experts estimate that 25% to 35% of home heat can be lost through doors and windows and "adequate" attic insulation can save 30% on home energy bills. Exact savings depends upon how your home is built (number of windows, amount of insulation) and what climate you live in (e.g. mild Southern California or hot summer/cold winter mid-west America).

The ultimate example of an energy efficient home is that of my favorite singer/song writer for the past 40 years, Jackson Browne. He has built a home that is self-sufficient; it is wind and solar powered which has allowed him to be completely disconnected from any mainstream power grid! Now that's a guy who practices what he preaches; "No Nukes" for Jackson Browne. That makes me admire him even more. I realize that most of us have no means to build our own self-sufficient home, but we can surely follow Jackson Browne's lead and upgrade to more efficient what we have! Some upgrades can be done during necessary home maintenance, for example add some solar panels while you replace your old roof or make sure you put in energy saving windows when you remodel the kitchen or living room. Of course part of the problem in America today is that people don't live in one place very long and do not want to put money into a home they will sell in a year or two. It turns out that the resale value of the home usually rises as you add energy saving windows, new roof, attic insulation, etc. so you are not necessarily throwing you money away. In the long run most of these items pay for themselves are environmentally friendly and of course reduce America's reliance on foreign oil!

Just remember we don't have to change where or how we live, just make our homes more "energy efficient" and be "energy conscience!" For example let me assume you take a 5 minute shower. Surely you can do the same job of cleaning yourself in 4 minutes and 15 seconds with just a small effort on your part! That would save approximately 10% of your home water heating bill (some is used by your washing machine and dish washer) and therefore about 2% of total home energy consumption would be saved by you reducing your 5 minute shower time by 45 seconds! Of course let's not forget that a leaky toilet can waste more than 10,000 gallons of water a year and a drippy faucet that leaks barely enough water to fill a soda bottle every 30 minutes will waste more than 2,000 gallons of water a year. Fix those leaks! Gee, the average energy inefficient home is reminiscent of the average non-wind resistant home in Florida. There seems to be a theme in here somewhere, namely we are not doing things right!

Enough said about our energy inefficient homes. Let me move on to transportation. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) average gas mileage for new vehicles sold in the U.S. has gone from 23.1 mpg in 1980 to a whopping 24.7 mph in 2004; a meager 7% increase in 25 years. Worse is that we have increased our daily compute to and from work by about 20% since 1980 and in most locations traffic congestion has increased making that commute less efficient. The net result (even if we neglect the huge increase in number of autos on the road since 1980) is that net vehicle gas consumption for most Americans has increased since 1980, not decreased.

There are many ways to make our transportation more energy efficient. We can use public transportation, trains/subways/etc. if they are available. These tend to be a great source of transportation in areas that have huge traffic problems and have a very confined final destination (e.g. New York City). They are less useful and less desirable in already built large sprawling cities with highly varied destinations (e.g. greater Los Angeles, and Houston). Rapid transit systems are very expensive and take years to build, especially in areas that are already heavily populated. I am not saying we should not expand them; just that it takes a long time and a lot of money to do it. Of course we can make vehicles more gas efficient; that approach seems to be the latest rage (as it was in 1974 during that great gas shortage). In addition to that obvious tact, I will add a simple, immediate approach not invoking any change in how we get around or what we get around in. For a moment, let's assume we are stuck with the cars we currently have.

We can make "driving conditions" far more gas efficient. I show below (from Edmunds.com) a chart of a few cars representative of our current on road quiver, with EPA gas mileage estimates and mileage estimates that Edmunds actually measured in "real life conditions."

Of note is the significant difference because EPA mileage estimates from standardized tests of cars on treadmills and real life mileage estimates. Real life driving conditions typically have more traffic, more stop and go driving than do EPA test conditions. The difference between EPA gas mileage estimates and Edmunds.com gas mileage estimates is what I call "driving condition inefficiency." Specifically, stop lights require stops and starts that reduce gas mileage. Also restarts from a stop in traffic are delayed by driver response to the cars ahead of you, hence the delay you (the 10th car back) experience before you can start after the light turns green. This inefficiency reduces gas mileage. You know as well as I do that you have at least a few traffic lights in your area that even in the middle of the night when everyone is sleeping require you to stop and wait, wasting gas in the process. You get zero gas mileage when you are idling (except in a few unique hybrids that turn off when stopped)! I have threatened to destroy one stop light that always makes me stop and wait, even at 3am on my way to The Weather Channel to fight a hurricane!

In a nut shell driving condition inefficiency amounts to approximately 5 mpg, and occasionally a 100% increase (doubling) of gas usage occurs compared to EPA estimates. By doing nothing more than making traffic stops and starts less frequently, we "could" improve average auto gas mileage by at least 5 mpg or more depending on your city! That requires NO change in auto gas mileage efficiency, no change in fuel type and no change in vehicle type, rather just the cost of a more educated stop light or series of stop lights that make driving conditions more efficient. With U.S. vehicle gas consumption somewhere around 200 million gallons annually, a 5 mpg driving efficiency from stops and starts alone could reduce U.S. vehicle gas consumption by about 20% or 40 million gallons per year! That efficiency would also shorten your commute time and would probably reduce road rage too.

So let me recap; more energy efficient homes and businesses could save a conservative 30% of U.S. consumption of 72% of the energy it uses, while more efficient driving conditions could save 20% of the remaining 28% of U.S. energy use. The combination equates to a 25% reduction in U.S. energy consumption without changing any energy use methodology! Everything else is a bonus. We are wasteful, we can do better, and we don't have to change our lives to do make a huge dent in consumption. We just have to be more efficient!

Starting Monday, March 2 (this upcoming Monday) Abrams and Bettes is going to 3 hours, 7-10pm ET! We have some new segments planned and we want your involvement in the show. I always thought it would be fun to do the show with a live studio audience, but since that isn't possible the closest we can get to it is using your emails and "tweets." You can follow us on by searching for abramsandbettes and look for a Facebook page, that's coming soon!

One of the new segments we will have is called "Yourcasting." We want to answer your weather questions, especially those based on weather photos and video you've taken. Send in the below information and we'll answer it live on air. It's important that you send in ALL the below information!

Name
City
Photo/Video
Question/comment you want answered/discussed
Picture of yourself suitable for TV via picture or webcam

Start sending them in to abramsandbettes@weather.com, so we can have some ready for the first week in our new timeslot!

Ever notice cloud patterns that look just like waves in the ocean? As you've probably guessed, it's no coincidence; air and water often behave in remarkably similar ways. In fact, much of what describes the motion of the atmosphere is in the realm of fluid dynamics. And there are specific instances in which clouds very nearly mimic waves or stream flows, in displays that are both fleeting and spectacular.

One example is gravity waves, which are essentially areas of repetitive vertical displacement, caused by a triggering mechanism, such as a thunderstorm. We've all thrown a rock into a pond, and in that case, the rock is the trigger. The atmosphere works similarly, but stability is what allows the waves to flourish. When the atmosphere is unstable, air will simply continue to rise once displaced. But in a stable atmosphere, in which air is not inclined to rise, air will rise in response to a triggering mechanism, temporarily. Because that parcel is colder, and thus heavier than the surrounding air, eventually it will sink. And more importantly, momentum causes that motion to overshoot the point of equilibrium. So the process repeats, up and down, until equilibrium wins and the motion is dampened.

Here is a time-lapse video of the jaw-dropping gravity waves that occurred over Tama, Iowa in May of 2006 (photo below). Note that the cloud motion, toward the northwest, is not at all related to the motion of the waves, which transverse the sky from west to east.



Isn't that amazing? And here's another type of wave called an undular bore; these linear, tube like clouds form in areas of greater shear, where winds increase with increasing height, such that the waves generate a rolling motion, much like cresting waves in an angry sea. These also occurred in Iowa, in October 2007:



That group of waves, also known as a train, showed up quite well on NEXRAD (Doppler radar):



Somewhat less dramatic instances of undular bores are not terribly uncommon; many of you have seen a sky like the one in the photograph below, which was taken in San Angelo, Texas in October of last year. Notice how sinking air creates a well-defined separation between the clouds:


(courtesy Kimberly Hoeppner and Amy McCullough, NWS San Angelo)

And, as is often the case, the clouds presented nicely in this visible satellite photo:


(courtesy NWS San Angelo)

Another type of atmospheric wave is the Kelvin-Helmholtz "breaking" wave cloud, as photographed below in Laramie, Wyoming. These are typically short-lived formations that occur when there is shear between two layers of different density, which creates a rolling motion along the interface. Such turbulence is quite common in clear air (as we know from commercial air travel), but it's not often revealed by clouds:



And shear can can create horizontal motion as well. The satellite photo below shows Guadalupe island, off the west coast of Mexico's Baja California Peninsula. In the wake of the island is a vortex street, comprised of a chain of eddies called von Karman vortices. Each vortex is born out of the interaction of the shear layers, as the flow directed around the island is moving more quickly than the air just behind it.



Like tiny whirlpools in a river, just downstream from a rock, that's fluid dynamics!

Abrams and Bettes are on Twitter and we want you to join and "follow" us! One of our bosses gave us the challenge to get 10,000 "followers" in 90 days, as of now we have 107! It's really easy and a lot of fun. We "tweet" when we get into work and let you know what will be on the show and use your "tweets," as they call them, during the show and put them on-air! We are new to Twitter and still learning the in's and out's, but overall it's easy. Look forward to "tweeting" with you! We are also still learning the lingo, but we did learn that a "tweet" is what you write on Twitter!

In order to "follow" us search for abramsandbettes

Hey guys, long time no talk! And while I'm here to talk a little bit about Tornado week, wow -- how about that snow in Maine?! If anyone has pictures from northern Maine I'd love to see them so please upload them to our Weather Warriors page! 30 inches of snow in portions of the state ... talk about a winter wonderland!

If you are a snow lover enjoy it while you can because another storm is headed your way for the end of the week and thanks to what we're predicting as the storm track, it's looking to be primarily a rain maker. Right now we have the storm tracking over the eastern Great Lakes which will allow some warm air to wrap into the east side of the storm while we'll see snow on the western side ... unfortunately that means you better carve up that fresh power in Northern Vermont and New Hampshire while you still can if you're a skier or snowboarder.

Ok so how's that for a digression?! Anyway, while tornadoes can and do form anytime of the year, what is typically thought of as tornado season is still a little bit away. However, it's never too early to get people ready and prepared for one of nature's most deadly forces. So as you've undoubtedly noticed by promotions on air and online tis the season for Tornado Week. Most importantly that means exciting news for fans of Storm Stories, because after far too long we've got brand new tornado themed episodes of the show along with tornado vignettes airing throughout the day (where hopefully you'll learn something)!

So this is where it gets fun (forced fun = real fun). In my hopeless pursuit to become a game show host in my next life -- let's play a little game -- I'm going to give you a couple of statements -- you guys tell me if these statements are true or false and I'll come back on Wednesday with some answers. Oooooh, sounds so fun doesn't it (almost as if it's real fun and not forced)?!

So here we go (insert fast paced theme music here please...go on...insert it...I'll wait...OK GO!):

1. Areas near rivers, lakes, and mountains are safe from tornadoes.

2. The low pressure with a tornado causes buildings to "explode" as the tornado passes overhead.

3. Windows should be opened before a tornado approaches to equalize pressure and minimize damage.

I could go on and on but this seems like a good starting point, maybe I'll bring more fun to the party mid week. So while you are mulling over these answers, don't forget to tell all your friends, family and maybe even a few strangers along the way about the return of Storm Stories and I'll be back midweek to catch up with you and see how everyone is enjoying Tornado Week. Seriously people, send pictures of winter weather!

Take care and if someone can tell me where I misplaced my weekend, I'd be very thankful!

Let's break that title down ...

"Cyclogenesis" means as it sounds: the genesis of a cyclone. Or in other words, the [in this case rapid] development of a low pressure system.

There's a particular breed of them along the East Coast of the United States, with a subspecies that has an origination as an "Alberta Clipper." Alberta Clippers are so named because they, well, come from Alberta and, like Clipper ships, move quickly.

Definitions typically cite Clippers as also bringing light snow, but that's not always the case. In the Midwest and Great Lakes, as was the case on Saturday, snowfall rates can be briefly high even though the heavy snow usually doesn't last too long and amounts don't add up too terribly much. And every once in awhile, a Clipper, which can swing down from Manitoba or Saskatchewan as well as Alberta, will slow down and intensify along the New England coast.

The current cyclone is a classic case of all of the above, plus it's one involving "secondary" redevelopment.

The sequence of maps below shows the evolution on Sunday.

First, this model analysis depicts a low moving across the Great Lakes:

Then as the "primary" low continued east, there was a hint of a secondary low beginning to take shape in eastern Virginia:

Followed by two approximately equal lows:

And finally the secondary coastal low rapidly took over last evening and became the primary:

Followed by a rapid pressure drop (these maps are all in 6-hour intervals):

The central pressure has since dropped further, to ~984 millibars (29.06").

A similar process occured aloft, per this model forecast for this morning. "X" marks the spots of the old and new upper lows:

All leading to intense snowfall rates and totals (up to 25" reported so far, at Bridgton, ME) along with gusty winds, and this vivid, circular radar image from shortly after midnight. That's not a true partial eyewall like one would see in a tropical cyclone, as the satellite image from shortly thereafter did not show hard convection (deep thunderstorms) immediately surrounding the center, but the radar image is at least enough to evoke thoughts of hurricane season .... the start of which in the Atlantic basin, BTW, is only a little more than three months away :-o ...

[10AM MONDAY UPDATE: More than 140,000 homes & businesses are reported to be without power in Maine.]

[Click on radar image for larger version; source: GRLevelX]

*** Update from Friday morning Feb 20 - The National Weather Service has reclassified the tornado at Tyrone as a strong EF3 (160 mph), downgraded from the preliminary EF4 mentioned below. ***

Softball size hail and an EF4 tornado -- that's what February 18 brought to Georgia! The EF4 tornado hit Tyrone in Wilkes County in eastern Georgia, east of Atlanta, and was the first F4/EF4-rated tornado in Georgia during February since 1940!

Weather Warrior KRHaney of Tyrone in Fayette County, western Georgia, submitted the photo of the hailstones below -- after they had melted for 20 minutes! 3" diameter hail fell there. It was a terrible evening to be living in a community named Tyrone in Georgia!

The storm that spawned these hailstones previously produced softball-sized hail at Palmetto in Coweta County and prior to that across the state border near Ranburne, Cleburne County, eastern Alabama. The hail was spawned by a supercell thunderstorm -- one having a large, persistent, strong, rotating updraft. The strong and long-lasting updrafts of a supercell can have air rising at over 100 mph and allow huge hail to develop, suspended until the stone becomes so heavy that it falls to the ground.

The supercell that spawned the hail above is shown in radar below (GRLevelX). The curving, hook-like shape of the storm is indicative of the rotation of the supercell. Softball-sized hail (4.25" diameter) fell from the storm at this time northwest of Ranburne. The violet and white colors indicate the areas with large hail falling to the ground.

That white line above shows a slice that I've taken through the storm -- a cross section, shown below. I drew it along the approximate path of the inflow and updraft to the thunderstorm toward the north-northeast, which I've sketched on the diagram with the white arrow. The thunderstorm top is at about 35,000 feet (35 kft). Notice that there is a flat violet layer at about 13,000 feet. That's where hail is being generated and being suspended aloft in the top portion of the tilted updraft, migrating slowly upward and toward the right. It then gets so big that it falls to the ground.

Softball-sized hail is pretty rare. During the past 10 years, the whole United States has averaged just 35 reports of softball hail, and just one of those during the month of February.

Looking back to that hail picture, you see different sizes, shapes, and compositions of the hailstones. It raises some questions that I'll try to answer.

Why are some hailstones larger than others? Hail grows very large by being suspended aloft by strong updrafts that can exceed 100 mph. They are "levitated" much like the puck in an air hockey game. Water drops that have been chilled to temperatures below freezing -- called "supercooled" -- are lighter and rise in the updraft and collide with the hailstone. They freeze onto the hail, making it grow. Once the hail gets too big to be suspended aloft, it falls to the ground. So a storm with a stronger updraft can grow bigger hail. The same thunderstorm can grow big hail near its strong updraft center and smaller hail on its weaker flanking areas.

Why are some hailstones nearly spherical and smooth, while others are jagged or bumpy? Jagged stones can develop when light little pea-sized hailstones get carried upward and bang into and freeze onto the bigger stone. Spherical stones grow just by coatings of supercooled drops. I think a scientist did some research a while back, though, that found it was possible for jagged stones to also form somehow with just the right bombarding by supercooled drops.

Why are some hailstones nearly clear and others opaque? This probably involves the rate of freezing and the size of the supercooled drops. Tiny supercooled drops tend to freeze into a milky color because of fast freezing that traps embedded air pockets. A clear, glaze appearance tends to involve larger supercooled drops that freeze a bit more slowly without trapped air bubbles.

Softball-sized hail can be deadly. The last fatality in the United States was in the Dallas-Fort Worth area in March 2000. There have been 3 deaths since 1930.

When storms approach, get indoors - stay safe!

To the hour, potent dynamics (wind energy) are sweeping across the exact same region exactly one week later! This graphic shows a core of strong winds aloft slicing over Tennessee at noon CST last Wednesday (left) and noon CST today (right).

[Source of images: wright-weather.com]

Given typical spacing and speed of weather systems, having something similar occur seven days later does happen more often than you might think, but *no* two weather events are *exactly* the same, and that's the case this time.

As I wrote about last week, that explosion of energy brought everything from the strongest February tornado on record in Oklahoma to an Ike-like blast of wind from Kentucky across the Northeast, to a phenomenal rash of severe straight-line winds produced by lines of thunderstorms last Wednesday afternoon and evening (below).

This week, in addition to that core of winds aloft being not quite as strong and oriented a llittle differently, the atmosphere started out much less unstable, with last week's system having swept the Gulf Coast clean of warmth and humidity. It surged back north Tuesday night but did so only aloft, which led to "elevated" instability. Thunderstorms from the south-central states to Kentucky and Tennessee brought locally heavy rain and a few reports of hail and gusty winds, but nothing too bad since the storms were sort of disconnected from the Earth's surface where cool air hung tough.

There's more "surface-based" instability this (Wednesday) afternoon, and an increased number of severe weather reports are coming in.

In areas such as eastern Kentucky, though, which was hit particularly hard last Wednesday by widespread damaging winds (from thunderstorms, separate from the Ike-like winds), today most of the severe thunderstorms have been in the form of large hail. Farther south, closer to the Gulf Coast and with warmer and more humid air as fuel for the storms, there's a heightened tornado threat this evening and overnight, and at the moment of this posting, there are storms just west of Atlanta, including an impressive supercell (rotating thunderstorm) crossing the border from Alabama into Georgia. Damage has been reported in Anniston from that storm.

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UPDATE 9:45 PM WED

As of this hour, 70 reports of large hail and 20 reports of wind damage, mainly of the tree / power line variety; just a couple of possible short-lived tornadoes. This is not a situation in which the storms dissipate at sunset, so we'll need to remain vigilant for more severe weather overnight in the Southeast.

UPDATE 11PM

Reports of more significant damage are coming in from Georgia ... we'll have to wait until the daytime on Thursday but given the damage descriptions and the appearance of the storms on radar, it is likely that there were tornadoes involved, not just straight-line winds.

UPDATE 10AM THU

Here's the latest map of yesterday's and last night's severe weather reports; keep in mind that a few of the wind damage reports (blue) are likely to be designated to have been tornadoes after damage surveys are conducted today.

In regard to the red dots, which denote tornado reports, a large and destructive twister developed in extreme south Georgia after midnight as an intense rotating supercell formed within a line of thunderstorms:

It brings back memories of another overnight episode in mid-February (2000) in the same general region (Camilla, which was hit again in March 2003). This NWS radar image shows the supercell (circled) which led to many fatalities; shortly after the time of this image another supercell developed to the southwest and moved over the same locations.

UPDATE 5PM THU

One of the tornadoes in Georgia, in Wilkes County, has been rated an EF4 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale of 0 to 5.

There have now been two EF4s in Georgia within a year, the other being near Darien on Mother's Day (May 11) in 2008. Prior to that the last F4s in the state were during the November 22, 1992 outbreak and the April 3, 1974 Superoutbreak.

UPDATE 1PM FRI FEB 20

Of little consolation to the people whose home was completely destroyed, but the Wilkes County tornado has been re-rated as an EF3.
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Meanwhile, check this out:

That cyclone, to the east of the one producing the inclement weather in the U.S., has a central pressure which has dropped down to an estimated 960 millibars (28.25"), peak winds of hurricane force (74+ mph), and a very large wind field that per Dr. Lyons' estimates have likely produced wave heights as high as 45'+. If this storm had been centered, say, just east of Atlantic City rather than just clipping the extreme eastern Canadian Maritimes, then *that* would have been one to tell the grandchildren about! (On, BTW, the 30th anniversary of the first Presidents' Day Snowstorm.)

Here are a few pictures of some of the animals from Sea World/Busch Gardens that were on the show. We found out some really interesting facts about these animals and weather.

We learned that the box turtle closed up when threatened by predators and weather. These turtles also go into a mild hibernation.

The penguins have air in-between their feathers to help insulate them. So when they fluff up they are getting rid of that insulation. This is the same concept we as humans use when we wear layers. Layers help trap air and insulate us!

The lynx's paws are made specifically for walking on the snow, they are unusually large and padded.

Chinchilla's have oversized ears and they take in heat and distribute it through their body!

We use a microwave to heat our food, but owl's sit on their food to defrost it!

We hope you enjoyed the show. If you have any show ideas send them along....of course they have to be weather related!

I'm off to speak at the National Storm Chaser Convention in Denver, Colorado this weekend, February 14-15.
The organizers are planning to air the convention on streaming video, in case you can't make it. You can read more about it here.

Have any chase experiences that you'd like to share? We'd love to hear them.

Happy Valentines Day!

Okay, so maybe we aren't getting lions, tigers, and bears, but we are getting some special visitors to Abrams and Bettes Beyond the Forecast! On Monday, February 16th we are welcoming 5 friends from Busch Gardens and Sea World, a Canada Lynx, an Eastern Box Turtle, a chinchilla, a Great Horned Owl, and Magellanic Penguins Pete and Penny!

We'll discuss how weather affects our furry friends. We hope you can join us beginning at 7:00pm. Email us questions for our guests and tune in to see the answers!

You can't tell a book by its cover, one of those convenient phases used fairly often in the English language. If you are like me, you have probably heard this phrase every since you were a little kid (my dad had/has a tone of them), and occasionally through various circumstances in your life the phrase comes to reality for you. Yes, I remember a girl in my sixth grade class, many of the boys made fun of her because she was not particularly attractive. Oh course like most sixth grade boys that tainted my view of her, at least until the 1965 Christmas music program in the school auditorium. Yes, there she was up on the stage with a brief solo of "Silent Night." Wow, what a voice she had singing like a nightingale. My image of her instantly changed from homely to beautiful! To this day I still remember her and her beautiful voice, and of course the phrase you can't tell a book by its cover hit home then and has done so hundreds of times in my life since then.

OK so what does this have to do with weather and hurricanes you ask? Well yesterday I was examining tropical cyclone "Gael" in the southwest Indian Ocean. The satellite image of Gael that I was looking at is shown below. It looked like a fizzling, weak, low cloud swirl dying a miserable death as it moved away from the tropics to become a non-tropical cyclone. But after that fabulous version of Silent Night, and with quite a bit of scientific training, I have never let the look of a circulation taint my view of how strong it is. Yet in tropical meteorology this is somewhat an inconsistent statement. We always talk about how the organization of the hurricane on satellite imagery often characterizes its intensity, symmetric, tightly wound hurricanes are intense, asymmetric, ragged looking hurricanes are weak. The Dvorak hurricane intensity estimation technique is based on these patterns and has been in use for more than 30 years.

So when you look at this poorly organized, ragged looking, mostly low cloud swirl on satellite imagery one has a tendency to think it is not much more than a remnant dud circulation on its last leg. If you were in a ship in the high seas caught in it, you would have a very different view.

Below the satellite image is a satellite "scatterometer" estimate of the surface winds in this dying circulation. The satellite shoots a signal to the ocean processes the return signal into a surface wind (the details are too long to cover here). The resolution of the scatterometer winds is usually fairly low, it averages out strong winds in a very narrow zone (like an eyewall) with weaker surrounding winds...assuming it can seem them (it cannot get wind estimates in heavy rain areas). This satellite derived wind map if you can see the details indicates the circulation still has 75 mph sustained surface winds in the circulation on its left side (a black triangle is 50 knots, a long bar is 10 knots, a half bar is 5 knots and one knot is about 1.15 mph).

Wow, how can it be that this pathetic looking low pressure area is so strong with such a poor looking satellite cloud pattern? Well, you can't tell a book by its cover sometimes, and this is one of them. You see when hurricanes weaken very often their satellite cloud pattern rapidly falls from tight and organized to a disheveled pattern, but it takes the surface winds a while to "spin-down" and slow.

So unless you are an expert at satellite weather analysis and interpretation (similar to a radiologist looking for broken bones in a hospital), or you know the Dvorak hurricane classification technique very well (it accounts for the typical slow spin-down of winds after the pattern begins to fallen apart), don't discount what appears to be a remnant weak circulation as it might end up surprising you with some very strong winds. Thank you sixth grade girl for singing a beautiful song, I have never forgotten it or you!

Last week I embedded an image of a model forecast of a vicious core of winds about 3 1/2 miles above the Earth's surface (left map below), and given this afternoon's analysis (right map), that model prediction was quite accurate.

[Source of images: wright-weather.com]

The winds are very potent a bit lower than that level as well and some of that velocity is blasting down in the form of powerful gusts. The sustained winds are strong too as a result of the intensifying low pressure system sweeping across the region.

Yesterday, in the midst of blogging about the wild weather including the devastating tornadoes, I noted the similarity to the remnants of Hurricane Ike, and given what's going on today it's worth elaborating on that in this separate entry.

On the weather map from earlier this (Wednesday) afternoon, I've outlined the area of 40+ mph gusts (orange) and 50-60+ mph wind gusts (red).

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THURSDAY AFTERNOON ADDENDUM

In reading Gil's comment, it became apparent to me that I had perhaps not made the point clearly enough that the winds to which I was referring were occuring mainly separate from the gusts produced by the thunderstorms/rainbands, and in fact were mainly associated with sunshine.

At the time of the surface map, here is a satellite image on which I've duplicated (at least to the precision I can with my crude drawing!) the orange/red wind areas.

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At the time, the peak gust was 62 mph (55 knots) at Paducah, Kentucky. Since then, gusts have been measured up to 73 mph (63 knots, just 1 knot/mph shy of hurricane force) in Owensboro and Bowling Green.

Here is a table from the National Hurricane Center's official Ike report listing many of the peak gusts from the hurricane's inland remnants, and the 55-63 knots measured today are very similar to what's on the chart below ...

What's more, I've placed red dots where Owensboro and Bowling Green are located on the map below, and, amazingly, they fall squarely in the middle of both the Ike and ice storm damage swaths -- the last thing folks there need!

There are slews of reports of damage (mainly trees and power lines but also some structural damage) coming in from western and central Kentucky and thereabouts, as well as from a line of severe thunderstorms and rainsqualls that has blasted across central and eastern Kentucky and Tennessee out ahead of those strong non-thunderstorm "pressure gradient" winds.

Though hopefully not quite as extreme, the windy weather will progress toward the northeast tonight into Thursday.

UPDATE 10PM EST WED

As represented by the blue dots in the eastern swath above, there have been an extraordinary number of severe wind (58+ mph and/or damage) reports today for that far north and this time of year. And that's only what was associated with the thunderstorms and rainband, not the non-tstm pressure gradient!

I've combined the Storm Prediction Center's maps for Tuesday and Wednesday, with a total of more than 500 reports, 300 of those today. The gap between the two severe weather swaths occurred during the morning, due to insufficient instability. However, as soon as the sun started heating the lower atmosphere things got out of hand again, albeit in a different way than yesterday.

Speaking of which, in addition to being the deadliest tornado in Oklahoma in February, the Lone Grove twister has been rated an EF4 on the scale from EF0 to EF5, making it also the strongest Oklahoma tornado in February in the historical record since 1880.

UPDATE 4PM EST THU FEB 12

Here is a set of measurements aloft from 7:00 this morning over Long Island, showing the altitude (starting with the surface at 20 meters) and the wind speed in knots:

m knot
20 7
222 42
305 56

So even though winds were light at the time on the ground -- 8 mph (7 knots), they were as high as 48 mph (42 knots) a couple hundred meters up and 64 mph (56 knots) at 305 meters, or 1000 feet.

That wind transfered down to the surface as soon as the sun's heat mixed the atmosphere up a bit, and peak gusts in the Northeast today, while a hair shy of those to the southwest yesterday, have been consistently blasting in approximately that range (upper 40s to mid 60s in mph).

By: Cameron Brown, weather.com contributor

The 2009 ice storm will go down in the history books as one of the most destructive and life-interrupting storms in Kentucky's history. Its impacts reached far and wide across the state, with the most significant damage done in western & central KY. The clean-up will take months. People cringe with each additional weather threat -- such as the potential severe weather this week -- as further wind and/or ice could cause additional problems statewide.

Property damage is widespread. My parents had a small shed destroyed by a tree, and have trees and branches down throughout their 5-acre property. Other family members had a large tree branch fall and poke holes in their roof. A tree fell into the living room of a friend's house; fortunately, the family was in their bedrooms at the time. Every Kentuckian has similar stories to share.

Many schools were out for up to 2 weeks, so school calendars will likely carry into summer. In Lexington, road conditions were treacherous for the first couple of days, but the road crews did a great job of keeping most primary roads passable. Walking on city sidewalks was pretty dangerous, both due to icy conditions on the ground and falling branches from above.

I doubt there are many Kentuckians who were not at least secondarily affected by the power outages. My wife and I live in Lexington and were blessed that our power stayed on throughout the storm (underground utilities helped!). Many of our family members in Elizabethtown were not as fortunate. For over a week much of Hardin County was without power, and for three days without water, making living conditions almost unbearable. The water towers lost power, and back-up supplies failed. Once water was restored, a "boil advisory" was issued; but that was a difficult mandate for thousands without power.

Our house served as a shelter for family members for about a week. I would venture a guess that at least half of homes with power became temporary housing for others at some point during the past couple of weeks. As of today, I still have family in western KY that has been without power for two weeks, and emergency shelters are still in operation to aid storm victims.

Without question, the ice storm of 2009 will have a long-lasting impact on the state. However, the "serve others first" mentality of Kentuckians has shined through the entire experience, and I know it will continue to do so in the days ahead.

Were you affected by this historic ice storm? We realize after the ice storm, hundreds of thousands were left without power for days if not weeks. It is during these times that the best of human nature is on full display.

We'd love for you to share the hardships along with the good that came out of this devastating storm. If you would like, please share in the comments section your own personal account of the storm and its aftermath.

[Updates (latest as of 7am EST Wednesday), including info and commentary on the Oklahoma tornadoes, follow original 5pm Tuesday entry.]

We were having our evening programming meeting at The Weather Channel a little while ago when our attention was suddenly riveted to the video monitor as TWC took a live feed of a tornado. This was the classic supercell which produced the tornado, just north of Oklahoma City:

[Image source: GRLevelX]

The first damage photographs are just coming in; it's unclear whether the one below of a restaurant was taken in the wake of that particular tornado, but it's in the greater Oklahoma City area. There are reports of more serious damage than what's shown in this photo. Hopefully there haven't been any fatalities.

[AP photo]

So the severe weather I wrote about in my most recent entry has begun already by mid-afternoon today (Tuesday), and it's part of a supercharged atmosphere from a record-setting barometric pressure in Sioux Falls to wild winds in Europe.

The North Atlantic storm I noted in the addendum to my entry the other day slammed onshore Monday night (pressure analysis below), bringing massive power outages in France, and damage and casualties in Switzerland.

[Image source: wright-weather.com]

Meanwhile, in the States ...

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
930 PM CST MON FEB 9 2009

..RECORD MONTHLY MINIMUM PRESSURE BROKEN THIS EVENING

WITH AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ... THE PRESSURE AT SIOUX FALLS HAS BEEN FALLING ALL DAY. BY SHORTLY AFTER 7 PM CST...THE PRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO EQUAL 29.03 INCHES...WHICH WAS THE LOWEST PRESSURE EVER RECORDED IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THIS RECORD WAS ORIGINALLY SET ON FEBRUARY 23RD 1977. THE PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO FALL TO 28.96 INCHES AT 930 PM CST THIS EVENING.

I would have thought that in that part of the country at this time of year, the pressure would have dropped to that level before, but apparently not!

It was associated with the big, classic, spirally swirl on the water vapor satellite image below. That is what became of the orange-circled disturbance in the graphic I embedded in my most recent entry. The feature I've circled in red below (the second one from the other day) looks relatively innocuous, but it's not.

That's the disturbance which will scream northeastward during the next couple of days with its nasty core of winds aloft. Those winds will transfer down to the surface by way of intense thunderstorms.

You're just not gonna have that potent a system bulleting across with such rapidity and interacting with an unstable atmosphere, and not have at least some problems result. And, by the way, most of this episode of severe weather is occurring north of where is typical for midwinter.

The greatest threat of long-track and/or particularly strong tornadoes will be this evening and overnight in south-central states, due to the presence of humid, unstable air in addition to all of the wind energy. This scenario is *not* one in which the thunderstorms dissipate at sunset -- the threat will continue overnight.

The radar below from a short time ago was enough to create a sense of deja vu (May 3, 1999), with the train of supercells and hook echoes in central Oklahoma.

This is February, though, not May, with less heat in the atmosphere, so hopefully the outcome this time won't be nearly as bad, and the most recent radar imagery shows the activity becoming more linear rather than discrete supercells.

On Wednesday as the system blasts across the Ohio Valley, eastern Great Lakes, and Mid-South, the instability will be less robust, with the situation more conducive to severe straight-line winds than supercell tornadoes. However, some tornadoes are still possible tomorrow, and there'll be severe straight-line winds (and hail) tonight in addition to any tornadoes which form.

There could even be an Ike-like core of strong non-thunderstorm winds during the day Wednesday near where the surface low tracks as the cyclone intensifies, affecting some of the area which was hit by both Ike and the ice storm.

Then on Thursday, even though the severe thunderstorm and tornado threat will be over, strong winds around the backside of the low pressure system will buffet the eastern Great Lakes, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic.

In the meantime, some tornado preparedness tips are here -- stay safe, everyone!

UPDATE 1:30 AM EST WED FEB 11

The good news is that as of this hour the outbreak hasn't even begun to rival the May 3, 1999 one. The bad news is that tragically, there are reports of at least four fatalities (possibly as many as eight) and dozens of injuries in Lone Grove, just west of Ardmore, Oklahoma, which is south of Oklahoma City near the Texas border. Per stats which Dr. Forbes checked, that would make this the deadliest tornado on record (going back to 1880) in Oklahoma in February.

That innocuous-looking upper-level disturbance is now not-so-innocuous looking, as it's taken on the "bowling ball" appearance I noted in my previous entry, ahead of which is a long line of thunderstorms with frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, blinding downpours, and in some places hail and/or damaging winds.

Ironically, in terms of the outbreak as a whole, what happened Tuesday afternoon and early evening was a precursor to the main event, which is underway, but there was such spin in the atmosphere and just enough instability that things got out of hand with a couple of the supercell thunderstorms.

Now the activity is mainly in the form of a long line, but there could still be tornadoes embedded in that squall line overnight in addition to the blasts of straight-line winds. Those winds are capable of doing their own share of damage (such as the roof which was recently blown off in Waco), tapping into that vicious core of energy aloft as the storms scream eastward at upwards of 50 miles per hour.

UPDATE 7AM EDT WED

This is what I wrote a couple of years ago in the wake of the Riegelwood, North Carolina tornado, and it now bears repeating:

"... one of the numerous stunning and captivating things about tornadoes is the way they can put a small town on the map, as headlines blare the tale of death and destruction.

"Countless places that are great, hard-working, closely-knit communities but not very well-known outside the local area have suddenly become recognized far and wide within hours after tornadoes strike, ever more so in the age of the Internet in which news that is made somewhere is instantly transmitted 'round the world.

"Long after the media has moved on to the next Big Story, the residents of these towns and small cities and suburbs are still pulling together on the long road toward recovery from damage and oftentimes tragedy, and the twister's legacy will forever be a part of that location's history and its inhabitants' psyche."

It's happened again, this time with Lone Grove, Oklahoma.

The news this morning is not good, with the death toll from the tornado there reported to be at least eight and possibly as high as 15 people.

The National Weather Service issued a statement with the statistics Dr. Forbes referred to, so it's now official in regard to making February-in-Oklahoma history.

In addition, while still falling far short, February 10, 2009 continues to bring a sense of deja vu with respect to May 3, 1999.

There were two swaths of wind damage overnight, one in northern Arkansas and southwest Missouri, including in the area affected by the ice storm, and another from northeast Texas into northwest Louisiana and extreme southern Arkansas. All in all, preliminarily more than 160 reports of severe thunderstorm winds, tornadoes, and large hail yesterday and last night.

For the moment, things have calmed down a little, with locally heavy rain and gusty winds, but no reports during the past couple of hours meeting the official severe criteria (tornadoes, hail 3/4" diameter or larger, or severe thunderstorm winds of 50 knots / 58 mph and/or producing damage).

However, additional severe weather is expected as the day wears on.

Well the title says it all -- one day half the country is bundled up in 15 layers of Snuggies and building igloos in their front yard - fast forward 7 short days, those igloos melt (bad idea) and people are wondering why they bought those strange blanket looking things in the first place.

Long story short, it seems as if Old Man Winter decided to pack up and go on a ski vacation to the Rockies for a few days. Check out some of these stats over the past week:

Before heading off to snowboard in Aspen Mr. Winter has the cold streaming all the way down into Florida last week -- in fact Tallahassee, FL tied a monthly low on February 5th of only 14 degrees!

Meanwhile the high temperature in Louisville, KY last Monday (February 2) was 42 degrees (right around average), yet the high temperature yesterday (February 9) tied the record high temperature of 70 (set in 1965 if you are looking for bonus points). OK so maybe that doesn't sound THAT impressive since it was just a TIE after all (sorry Philadelphia Eagles) so how about this one. I'll give you 6 full temperature points on the old record. Last Monday Moline, IL didn't even break freezing at 31 degrees but they started this week off on Monday by shattering their old high temperature of 56 by soaring into the 60s and topping out at 62 degrees for the day!

And spring break continues today (Tuesday the 10th) where we have a couple of records that could easily fall. All the way from Detroit to Tampa we are calling for another warm day. Grand Rapids you can almost count on hitting it. Your old record high is 54 set back in 1966 and we're calling for 60 today!

So I guess the question I have for all of my weather engaged friends reading this is ... do you LIKE this little break from old man winter or does it kind of get you out of the spirit of the season too quickly. And what have you been doing differently that would have never crossed your mind just days ago (i.e. -- cooking out, playing golf, etc.). For example, the first thing my dad does when there is a glimmer of warmth is he spends literally an hour washing his car to get all of the salt and muck off of his car. Even though with all of the snow melt on the streets his car will be dirty again .5 seconds after leaving the driveway, but that's neither here nor there. Clearly pops needs his head examined, but hey ... that's his thing ... what's yours? In addition it would be great if you could send some of your favorite unseasonably warm weather pictures over here to Weather Warriors and maybe I can post them in my next blog!

Anyway if your answer to the above question was the later (gets me out of the winter mood) have no fear because the spring fling is about to come to a pretty dramatic end. In fact on Wednesday you can expect blustery -- much colder conditions with Friday high temperatures only in the upper 30s...so I guess we'll be saying the same thing next week -- what a difference a week makes!

[Sunday and Monday updates follow original entry.]

Early last week I wrote about scary ingredients that were present for a major meteorological maelstrom, in that case an ice storm. Then this past Sunday I posted an entry on falsely-alarming hype being perpetrated about an alleged upcoming Colossal Groundhogzilla Megastorm (CGM, not to be confused with GCM, which stands for General Circulation Model or Global Climate Model).

Thus the title of this entry. There's now another weather situation brewing which has a lot of potential. In fact, we might be looking at a remarkable series of events -- one (two) for the ages: a historic ice storm, followed, while people are still recovering, by a major severe thunderstorm and/or tornado outbreak in/near the same region.

That is to say, we already have an icy one for the ages, and even if the upcoming thundery episode falls short of being extreme like last February's Super Tuesday outbreak but nonetheless is significant, the one-two punch would be historically noteworthy given the rarity of such a back-to-back combo. Too far south and it's hard to get a severe ice storm; too far north, and at least until recent years it's been hard to get a significant midwinter severe thunderstorm / tornado outbreak. Having one right after another in the same place? Doubly difficult.

Yet in a fascinating coincidence, last year it happened in the same region ... in reverse: a significant, though not extreme, ice storm occurred on February 11-12, a week after the Super Tuesday outbreak.

As my bio on weather.com says, I have the words "weather communication" in my title. Per my CGM entry, a fundamental rule of weather forecast communication is to convey both the amount of seriousness appropriate to the situation and the degree of uncertainty. What do we know? What do we not yet know?

There are always inherent unknowns for a storm system several days in advance, and last week the computer forecast models were horrid in that time frame. Plus, with severe "convection," critical details can be elusive even a few hours in advance. So for the upcoming event I don't want to be deluded into unwarranted hype myself such as what I blogged about.

That having been said, let's examine the situation ...

An upper-level trough and surface low swinging out of the southwest U.S. on Sunday and Monday with a bit o' severe weather will not be followed by cooler & drier air any farther east than the Plains. That means the Gulf of Mexico will be left "open for business," with increasing moisture and warmth continuing to stream northbound and leading to an unstable atmosphere.

Then, to use a sports object appropriated by meteorologists in describing potent, well-rounded upper-level disturbances, a "bowling ball" will eject out of the Southwest late Tuesday and Wednesday. That will further increase the atmospheric instability.

In terms of the dynamics (wind energy), there are some differences with the Super Tuesday 2008 outbreak. On the other hand there are disconcerting similarities, such as the strength of the velocity core a few miles up, which looks nasty in this model's projection:

[Image source: wright-weather.com]

The evolution of the pattern is somewhat complicated, but for a couple of days now there's been fairly decent model consistency, and all of the longer-range ones are now showing something similar with the generalities by midweek.

And there's the matter of the "ensembles." The ensemble approach entails running the same model multiple times but with slightly different initial conditions, to represent the limitations in accurately and precisely observing the current state of the atmosphere. There are no panaceas in weather forecasting, and that includes using ensembles to assess the amount of uncertainty, but they can at least provide for it some degree of objectivity and quantification.

Last week when the main longer-range U.S. model was bullish, many of its ensemble members were indicating a dud instead of a CGM; this time they're all similar to the operational run, just a bit different in the details of location and timing.

That seems to be the primary question at this point: exactly where, when, and to what degree the deep instability interacts with the dynamics (low level and mid-upper level jet streams), including specifically where that happens relative to the ice storm area from eastern Oklahoma to northern Arkansas, Kentucky, and thereabouts.

Bottom line:

We're highly confident that there's going to be a bout of intense thunderstorms during the middle of next week, starting in the south-central states and heading east-northeast from there. The trickiness this time involves small-scale intricate details, rather than the large-scale interactions necessary for the CGM to have occurred.

What's uncertain, as is always the case ahead of time, particularly this far in advance, is the number/intensity of tornadoes, and that vs. severe straight-line winds. It's also still a bit early to be too precise with the geographical specifics.

The best-case outcome would be that the activity isn't too serious as it ramps up late Tuesday and Tuesday night, and by the time the sun's heating adds additional energy Wednesday afternoon the main dynamics have outrun the most robust instability. Even in a worst-case scenario -- a major tornado outbreak -- twisters' size by nature means that an infinitesimally small percentage of the land area affected by the overall weather system would actually be hit by a tornado. And even with a squall line producing widespread straight-line wind damage, it's likely that far fewer people would lose power than was the case with Ike and the ice storm.

Nevertheless that would be of little consolation, especially for people still reeling and perhaps even experiencing post-traumatic stress disorder in the wake of the Ike and ice disasters. Merely being under a tornado watch or warning is the last thing folks there need, and we don't want anything bad to happen outside the ice storm area either.

So while it'd be great if this whole thing turns out to be another big false alarm, let's be prepared for that to not be the case given that the odds, at the time of this posting late Friday night, appear to be against that. Expect a stormy Tuesday night and Wednesday with lots of lightning flashing; thunder crashing; torrents of rain; and in some places stones of hail falling and strong straight or twisty winds blowing. We can hope that the event is an underachiever compared to its full potential, but I'd be surprised (wouldn't be the first time in my career!) if there isn't at least some damaging weather.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON ADDENDUM

And meanwhile ... over the North Atlantic ... this currently-innocuous wave on a front is forecast by all models to intensify dramatically into a powerful cyclone as it heads for western Europe, with its central pressure in millibars getting down to the 970s or possibly 960s (which equals about 28.5-28.8") before "making landfall."

The forecast map below depicts an exceptionally potent core of winds a few thousand feet up over France Monday night with velocities of more than 90 mph, which would mean that in addition to strong sustained winds at the surface there could be some wicked gusts transferring down from aloft.

UPDATE SUNDAY 12:30 PM EST

N/c from what I first posted. Though critical uncertainties still remain (e.g. will this be mainly a straight-line wind event or will there be strong tornadoes, and in either case which towns/cities will be most affected?), the weather pattern is still on track for a significant severe weather episode.

The dynamics (elements of wind energy) are exceptional, while the instability is limited given that we're still in midwinter and the air won't be as warm as if this were occurring in, say, April or May. Nevertheless, temperatures in advance of this system are warmer than average for this time of year; in fact, there were slews of record highs set yesterday.

Given the capricious, small-scale nature of the phenomena, and the intricate combination of ingredients necessary to produce them, ya never know with severe thunderstorms and tornadoes until the event is underway or even over whether it'll be an underachiever or an overachiever. We can still keep our fingers crossed that this one ends up being the former, but unfortunately an outcome of no severe weather at all is not an option.

The water vapor satellite image below shows the setup beginning to unfold, with the first disturbance I mentioned in the original entry (orange circle below) priming the pump. The upstream one (red circle) is the main protagonist; it will plunge south to take the place of the first one at the "base of the trough" over the southwest U.S., then eject rapidly northeast Tuesday night and Wednesday and vigorously agitate the atmosphere along its path.

MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE

In addition to the severe thunderstorms and tornadoes ...

The surface cyclone will become intense and large, with most models forecasting a central pressure down to ~980 millibars or even in the 970s (below 29" of mercury) as it moves into Canada, which will create a strong pressure gradient across an increasingly wide area ahead of and behind the cold front and low pressure center. (Generally, the greater the pressure gradient, the higher the wind.) Plus, wind fields aloft, throughout the lowest couple miles of the atmosphere, will be quite strong.

Thus expect very windy weather (sustained and gusts, with the potential for power outages in some places) spreading from the Ohio Valley and thereabouts on Wednesday across the eastern Great Lakes and portions of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Wednesday night into Thursday.

The good news is that we are going to bring you another "Cantore Stories" episode. The bad news (for us, the producers of the show) we went to International Falls, MN. Now nothing against International Falls but its called the "Icebox of the Nation" for a reason. It's regarded as the coldest town in the continental U.S. Try using a video camera when it is -24 degrees! Ouch!

Here we are (Howard on the left, Jim on the right) hard at work!

But, the highlights of the trip included ice fishing and the polar plunge (more on that later). To go fishing, you have to travel on ice roads on frozen Rainy Lake. Now, it is a little nerve-wracking to be told to keep your windows down and seat belts unbuckled ("just in case").

Once you get out on the frozen lake, you encounter hundreds of fish houses. They are all heated to some degree and many include beds, satellite TV and mini-kitchens. Of course, there are three or four fishing holes drilled in the ice inside the fish house?All the comforts of home as you drop a line! Not exactly what we envisioned about ice fishing!

We were treated to an International Falls delicacy while fishing?a bacon, onion and walleye sandwich. It is tradition to eat these while ice fishing...The bacon is fried first and then the breaded walleye is cooked in the bacon grease. Meanwhile, the onion is soaking in lemon juice...Slap all that on a piece of buttered white bread and mmm good!

Now to the polar plunge! We witnessed seven people, dressed only in swimsuits and bikinis jump into the frozen lake. The air temperature was about 10 degrees that day and the water temperature was about 35 degrees. Very refreshing! One guy even did a cannonball into the water! About the water, it took a construction crew several hours to chainsaw a hole in the ice big enough for these intrepid folks to enter. How did these people get up the courage? Well, the "before plunge" sauna and a couple of "adult beverages" seemed to warm them up to the task...

The Polar Plunge!

Jim Gagne in front of the ice hole.

Interviewing one of the brave.

We had to check this thing out up close!

Write us back and let us know if you've ever been to International Falls or been a part of a "polar plunge"! And hopefully you'll tune in for the show because it should be a good one.

Howard Sappington, Senior Executive Producer
Jim Gagne, Senior Producer

Maybe this blog is aimed more at builders, developers and politicians rather than at you J.Q. Public, you decide. Sometimes things amaze each of us. For me when it comes to hurricanes it never ceases to amaze me how we never seem to learn from the past or present, rather we just sit and wait for the forecast of our future, as if we have no clue what it will bring. It reminds me of Charles Dickens' classic tale "A Christmas Carol." Ebenezer Scrooge after dismissing Christmas as "bah, humbug" settles into a sleep on Christmas Eve only to be visited by spirits/ghosts; one from his past, one from his present and finally one from his future. The most amazing thing to me in this great story has always been why it took that final spirit, the spirit of Christmas future (which shows to Ebenezer a dead Tiny Tim along with a dark and flowerless grave that is his own) before he is able to see his selfish ways. And most importantly to change away from his retched existence before it is too late to save Tiny Tim or to save himself. What a great story, that surely makes everyone joyful and filled with kindness when Ebenezer awakens to Christmas morning, not too late to send the biggest turkey in town to Tiny Tim's family and to joyfully share his wealth with everyone he meets that magic day. Yes, transformations are possible if you believe this Dickens tale. I have read his book and I have seen the story in many forms with a variety of actors on TV for more 50 years. I never grow tired of watching; it still remains one of my favorite books/movies. Charles Dickens was a genius; he really had to have known the behavior of man well to have known that final spirit of Christmas future was necessary to change the behavior of Ebenezer Scrooge!

I liken this story to hurricanes. I know you are saying "he's lost my mind," but read on before you make that final judgment. You see, we are visited by ghosts of hurricanes past and ghosts of hurricanes present, but it ends there. We never seem to be able to realize the ghosts of future hurricanes will come. Unfortunately, as Charles Dickens so cleverly wrote, that is the ghost that makes all the difference. So let me show you a few hurricane ghosts with hope it will change your mind about how we the USA deal with hurricanes.

We look back to August 1983, a small hurricane forms off the coast of Texas and it's named Alicia. For many of you this is the distant past, you weren't born yet or you had no interest in the coast as you lived hundreds of miles from it. But I was there; I had finished my Ph.D. and a post-doc position and took a job in Houston forecasting waves and tropical cyclones for oil companies around the world. Hurricane Alicia strengthened to CAT 3 with a very sudden burst just offshore and blew across Galveston and Houston wrecking havoc on windows, trees, rooftops and power lines across that city. Surge devastated portions of the coast. I lost part of my roof and my new condo was flooded. When I fixed it, I made sure that could not happen again. Fortunately Alicia was small, but if you were in the eyewall winds like I was you remember the details vividly. I remember some vague details about the "great hurricane of 1900" were awakened by news media as Alicia neared the coast, but other than a few very old people no one remembered that past hurricane except through a few old photos, few listened. It was miserable to have no power in August and part of September in Houston after Alicia, not to mention part of my roof missing.

In 2001 a weak tropical storm with similar name "Allison" appeared to be an uneventful weak little thing, until it stalled over Houston and dumped 37 inches of rain on parts of that city causing a massive flood. A different damage footprint, but for some it caused far worse damage than Alicia had caused, yet in real time it was a real surprise to many as all tropical storm advisories had been cancelled and much of the rain fell at night!

Now, let's fast forward to 2008 and what I will call hurricanes present. Alicia and Allison had become distant memories to many, and to others it was never more than a few quotes about statistics from past tropical cyclones. Very large hurricane Ike struck the upper Texas coast wrecking havoc once again on Galveston, and the Bolivar Peninsula. To many it was the first time this had ever happened in the area. They were not there for Alicia in '83 or for Allison in ?01 and surely not there for the great 1900 hurricane. And for those that remembered Alicia, this weaker CAT 2 hurricane Ike could not possibly be as bad as CAT 3 Alicia had been. But the footprint of hurricane impacts is highly varied and dependent not only on wind speed, but also on hurricane size, on waves, and on rainfall. Water rose as high as 20 feet in some areas, portions of beach communities were washed away by high water and 30 to 40 foot waves, leaving remnant home foundations as identifiers to those returning to see what had happened. Some refused to leave and became part of the floating rubble. Yes it was a horrible recent event still fresh in our minds. Yet what are we doing, are we building back to the ways in the same locations as we had before Ike came, as we still try to do in many ways in New Orleans, Gulfport and Biloxi Mississippi after hurricane Katrina?

You see, no one wants to look at the future, especially when we have exactly what we want today. Ebenezer sure resisted looking forward hiding behind his stacks of money; in fact he never would have looked at his future if he had not been forced to through that wild, vivid dream! So the similarity I draw between my hurricanes and Charles Dickens' Ebenezer stops before hurricanes of the future! Few of us ever look forward at potential future hurricane disasters. Unfortunately, I cannot show you a future hurricane, but if I could perhaps I might rise to Dickens status in history. That is not going to happen and that is where the similarity stops. That critical ghost, the ghost of future hurricanes can never be shown to you, and I fear that because it cannot you will never be transformed! But I ask anyway, how can us scientists get through to all of you who rebuild after a hurricane? Hurricanes of the future will come again, that I can promise. When the next one comes and what its footprint looks like no one can say for sure. If only I were as clever and as ingenious as Charles Dickens perhaps, perhaps I might awaken you from your dream to live perilously on the beach, and to transform you to realize, like Ebenezer did after he saw his future, we are on borrowed time if we do not change our building practices!