WEATHER

It's always fun to talk with Joe Bastardi, chief long-range forecaster for WeatherData.com. It could be that we grew up about 30 miles apart on the beautiful Jersey Shore. Or it could be his fascination with Texas weather, stemming from his days at A&M.; Either way, Joe charts his own particular path, even when it puts him at odds with the conventional wisdom.

Now, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminstration's Climate Prediction Center is talking about warmer-than-normal temperatures and drier-than-normal weather in Texas over the next three months -- not what people want to hear with much of state in moderate- or severe-drought.

But Joe thinks there could be a change coming that might bring a bit more rain our way, especially in April, May and June.

"I don't want to promise this, and I don't think West Texas will have a good time at all," he says. "But I think the Dallas area has a chance to break out of this dry pattern."

A strong La Nina pattern -- which means warm and dry weather across the southern plains -- dominated last winter. It's weaker now, and Joe sees early signs that an El Nino pattern could begin developing over the next few months.

"That would improve rainfall somewhat," he said. "I think there might very well be some help coming in mid and late spring. But I'm not optimistic about early spring.

"The first two weeks of March will be very warm from Dallas to Abilene to Amarillo," he said. "March will feel more like April or even May."

But if the rain finally comes, that'll be OK.

After basking in 80-degree afternoon temperatures around Dallas, and in the 90s a bit farther west, we're looking at a sharp change over the weekend -- again.

A cold front that will roll through North Texas overnight means high temperatures Friday will be 20-30 degrees lower than todays, topping out in the 50s and 60s. Another front will slide in on Saturday, with even more cold air and temperatures in the low- to mid-50s, along with blustery winds of 15-25 mph with gusts in the 35 mph range, according to the National Weather Service.

Overnight temperatures could dip below freezing this weekend. But Monday brings another warming trend, with temperatures again nudging the 70s.

UPPER CYCLONE NOW OVER WASHINGTON/IDAHO WILL RIDE INTO THE MIDWEST
ON SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS AND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE RED RIVER TO THE LOWER 60S IN
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.

DEWPOINTS ON SATURDAY WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S...YIELDING
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. 850MB WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KTS SHOULD EASILY MIX TO THE
SURFACE...RESULTING IN SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH AND
GUSTS UP TO 35. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 ON SATURDAY. SEE THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS.

RIDGING ALOFT AND SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARM UP IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

Well, that depends on where you are. The temperature hit 80 at Dallas-Fort Worth International this afternoon, warm but well-shy of record temperatures.

But to the west, temperatures soared into the upper 80s and even into the 90s in places like Breckenridge and Graham, thanks to warm westerly winds. The Dallas area is unlikely to see such temperatures, although highs in the low 80s are possible on Thursday, according to the National Weather Service.

Come Friday, though, cooler air will filter into North Texas, with a chance of showers late Thursday and early Friday as the cold front approaches.

Fans of brisk winter weather, already unhappy with this season's regular run of tempertures in the 70s, can't be happy with the forecast for the next few days. Afternoon highs will flirt with the 80s, which sounds more like February in Sydney, Australia than Dallas, Texas.

But even if we hit 80 -- and current National Weather Service forecasts for downtown Dallas top out at 79 for the next few days -- it wouldn't even come close to a place in the record books. Tuesday's record high, set in 1918, is 93. Wednesday's is a torrid 96, set in 1904. And Thursday's high, set in 1917, is 90.

After Tuesday's damp and dreary weather, a forecast for increased fire danger seems hard to fathom. But that's what we can expect Wednesday, when wind patterns will shift and temperatures will rise into the 70s in many places.

Here's the word from the National Weather Service:

A dryline will roll across the Dallas area overnight, dragging with it very dry air, the humidity levels falling below 25 percent or even lower.

Couple that with a Pacific front pushing through Wednesday, with winds increasing to 20 mph and shifting to the northwest, and conditions could be very conducive for grass fires.

The dryline and front will have no real impact on temperatures, which could soar into the mid- to upper-70s in some areas, though Dallas is more likely to see afternoon temperatures right around 70, or a bit cooler.

That's how the rest of the week shapes up, with a chance of showers Tuesday afternoon and evening -- mostly east of the I-35 corridor -- them warm and dry Wednesday and cooler Thursday into the weekend.

Temperatures will range from Monday's high in the 50s to the 70s on Wednesday, then back to the 50s on Thursday with an early morning low on Friday near freezing. Saturday could see more cold air filtering in. But once past Tuesday, skies should be mostly clear through the week.

All in all, it's not bad for February.

Sailing along as we have this month, comfy in shirt sleeves, the notion of seasonal temperatures sounds downright frosty. They won't last long, but that's what we can expect this weekend and into Monday -- high temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s and lows in the upper 30s and low 40s.

That's about the average range for February temperatures in North Texas. But so far this February, we've been way above normal, much as we have for the last 18 months. Through Wednesday, the average high temperature this month has been 68.7 degrees -- more than 8 degrees above normal. The average low, 45.2 degrees, has been almost as impressive at 6.5 degrees above normal.

Staff writer Dave Levinthal (our man at City Hall) reported that City of Dallas officials sounded tornado sirens about 9:30 p.m. as the line of heavy thunderstorms approached.

Fortunately, the squall came through the city without producing any twisters.

But what about the second set of sirens? Nearly 30 minutes after the storm passed?

Kenny Shaw, Dallas' director of emergency management, explained to Dave in an e-mail:

"We were just giving a lesson to Police Dispatch on how to activate the siren system and accidentally set off some sirens in the City. It only sounded for a few seconds. Sorry for the potential confusion"

Oops.

UPDATE: Hail and winds were minimal. Steady rain now falling.

ORIGINAL POST: 9:41 PM Tue, Feb 10, 2009:

Rain and small hail falling in Uptown right now.

Although there tornadoes have not been spotted in Dallas, storm sirens are now sounding in downtown Dallas as severe weather sweeps through the North Texas region.

"Dallas is not in the 'hot zone' but we are doing this," Kenny Shaw, Dallas' director of emergency management, told us by e-mail a moment ago as strong winds began to pummel the downtown area.

The latest National Weather Service forecast discussion puts the squall line and its potentially severe weather in western parts of the greater Dallas area by early evening. The fast-moving system should be clearing the Interstate 35 corridor by about 10 p.m., the weather service says, and should rumble into East Texas by 3 or 4 a.m.

Heavy rain is possible, but the squall line will be moving so quickly that only about a quarter-inch of rainfall is expected.

The real danger, though, is large hail, damaging winds and isolated strong tornadoes in northeastern Texas, western Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Louisiana, according to the weather service's Storm Prediction Center.

Once the storms clear through the area, we'll still be looking at strong winds -- initially in front of the storms and then from the west-southwest behind the front.

They're definitely on their way, rolling up from the south. But remember, this is just the warmup act for the bad stuff moving in from the west.

The rest of the afternoon could bring scattered showers and storms to the Dallas area, with the severe weather forming to the north and west along an eastern-moving dryline. We're more likely to see the meanest weather beginning this evening, forecasters say.

The National Weather Service has just posted a tornado watch through 8 p.m. for 23 counties immediately north and west of the greater Dallas-Fort Worth area. Here's the info:

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 8
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

TORNADO WATCH 8 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARCHER BAYLOR CALLAHAN
CLAY COOKE EASTLAND
FOARD HARDEMAN HASKELL
JACK JONES KNOX
MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER
SHACKELFORD STEPHENS TAYLOR
THROCKMORTON WICHITA WILBARGER
WISE YOUNG

Or maybe not. But the latest forecast discussion from the National Weather Service in Fort Worth offers cause for concern:

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE REGION WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. STREAMER SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL TEXAS...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EXPECT THIS TYPE OF ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS IS WHEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE TO THE WEST OF THE CWA /FROM CENTRAL OK TO ABILENE/ WITH OTHER POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF THERE. THESE DISCRETE STORMS WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. A SQUALL LINE WILL THEN FORM AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. EMBEDDED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE SQUALL LINE. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE.

A fast-moving storm system now sitting over Southern California looks like it will push a strong squall line through North Texas on Tuesday evening, potentially triggering powerful thunderstorms, damaging winds, hail and maybe even tornadoes.

Ted Ryan of the National Weather Service in Fort Worth provides the details: "It looks like we'll start to destabilize Tuesday afternoon -- the atmosphere is ripe for severe thunderstorms and we'll probably have a few as early as the afternoon. But the main show will probably hold off until evening."

The best chance for severe storms is probably from 6 p.m. to midnight, he said, with the squall line moving from west to east in very favorable conditions favorable for hail, high winds and isolated tornadoes.

Given the potential for serious storms, Ryan recommends keeping current with the latest forecasts Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Clouds are flying across the sky this early afternoon, driven hard by southerly winds that measured a sustained 30 mph around 1 p.m. with gusts pushing 40.

Now, the winds usually taper off toward sunset, but not tonight. The National Weather Service's latest update keeps the wind advisory until 10 p.m., and the forecast discussion says the weather bureau might need to extend that until midnight, then resurrect it again on Saturday.

With the clouds and wind, it sure doesn't feel like we'll see those low 70s this afternoon -- can you have wind chill at 70 degrees? But temperatures are in the upper 60s around Dallas already, and there's a chance for more sun this afternoon. So 70 could be in reach.

The warm weather pattern across the Dallas area, with afternoon highs in the 70 degree range, looks like it will be around for at least a few days, with temperatures conspicuously above the seasonal mid-50s. But strong southerly winds will accompany the warmth, with a wind advisory possible Friday afternoon, when the National Weather Service expects breezes of 25 knots.

And that leads to the third part of the forecast. Those southerly winds will push moisture north as well, enough that showers will be possible by Sunday evening, and squalls on Monday, with possible damaging winds. Close behind that system is another, possibly arriving by Wednesday, with yet another chance of showers and thunderstorms, potentially severe, the National Weather Service says.

But moderate drought conditions have settled in over the Dallas area -- with much more extreme drought in South-Central Texas -- and the three-month forecast doesn't hold a lot of promise.

Dallas County hangs on the line between "developing drought" and "drought persists or intensifies" in the forecast period from mid-January to April, and much of Texas gets the same dry word.

Since those abundant rainfalls in the first half of 2007, which filled area lakes to overflowing, the rainfall deficit in the Dallas area has climbed above nine inches. Since August 2007, the official rainfall total is 41.35 inches. Normal for the period would be 50.23 inches.

In case you missed the news, Punxsutawney Phil, famed prognosticator and weather sage, saw his shadow on Groundhog Day and predicted six more weeks of winter, which, not so coincidentally, pretty much matches what the calendar says.

And based on the winter we've had so far, that's pretty good news -- especially for the heating bill. Since winter began on Dec. 21, the daily high temperature has been on average six degrees above normal. Lows have been fairly close to the average -- 3 degrees warmer in late December and 1 degree warmer in January.

Sure, there's been the occasional ice storm, freezing fog and other weirdness. But there have also been a fair number of days in the 70s and a couple in the 80s.

So six more weeks of winter? Bring it on!

Spotted some thunderstorms on the radar Sunday night as that cold front blew through, but all well to the southeast of Big D. And from the looks of the forecast, that could be the last real chance of rain for the rest of the week.

According to the National Weather Service, temperatures will be in the seasonal range -- mid 30s to mid 50s -- for the next couple of days before warming toward the weekend. But as for rainfall, well, there isn't much chance.

The weather service posted "fire danger" warnings south of Interstate 20 today, and by Thursday afternoon, with temperatures rising and a southerly breeze blowing, we could see critical fire weather conditions in place.

Atmospheric moisture will increase with some high clouds Thursday night and linger into the weekend, easing the fire threat. But the first real chance of rain won't come until Sunday, the weather service said.

True, January continued an 18-month warmer-than-usual trend around Dallas. But elsewhere, it was a much different story.

According to www.planalytics.com, January's mean temperatures were the lowest in five years in the U.S. and across North America, and over the continent, it was the fifth driest in 50 years.

The coldest weather was mainly in the Northeast and Midwest, But as with Dallas, the West and Southwest reported mostly warmer than usual temperatures in January.

The occasional ice storm notwithstanding, January is certain to become the 18th consecutive warmer-than-normal month around Dallas.

Except for a couple of exceptions last year, it also continues a pattern of drier-than-normal weather, too.

The run began in August 2007, when the torrential spring and early summer rains finally abated, and the warmth shows no signs of stopping.

The January numbers don't include numbers from today or tomorrow, but since both are expected to be considerably warmer than the normal high of 55 -- about 60 today and 70 Saturday -- they certainly won't alter the trend.

Be careful out there, because with the return of dry weather and a brisk westerly wind, the danger of grass fires is with us again. Yeah, we had ice and rain and stuff just a day or two ago, but not a lot when you melt it all down. And we've been drier than usual for months.

The risk of fires is likely to last through Saturday, at least, when temperatures will push 70 across much of North Texas. Sunday should be cooler, with appropriately seasonal temperatures in the mid-50s and a slight chance of rain Sunday evening into Monday morning east of Interstate 35 -- but no ice.

After the weekend warmup, temperatures should be mostly seasonal -- 30s overnight, 50s in the afternoon.