Top Stories: Latest SAG vs SAG Batman Goes Batshit Trouble For IATSE ICM’s Sam Cohn Retires Michigan Movie Studio Paramount vs Sony Sundance Good/Bad News Peter Chernin Leavin’? Hollywood Agency Layoffs Moviedom’s $1B January ‘G.I. Joe’ Sneak Peek Geek Oscar Boycott?            Top Stories: Latest SAG vs SAG Batman Goes Batshit Trouble For IATSE ICM’s Sam Cohn Retires Michigan Movie Studio Paramount vs Sony Sundance Good/Bad News Peter Chernin Leavin’? Hollywood Agency Layoffs Moviedom’s $1B January ‘G.I. Joe’ Sneak Peek Geek Oscar Boycott?            Top Stories: Latest SAG vs SAG Batman Goes Batshit Trouble For IATSE ICM’s Sam Cohn Retires Michigan Movie Studio Paramount vs Sony Sundance Good/Bad News Peter Chernin Leavin’? Hollywood Agency Layoffs Moviedom’s $1B January ‘G.I. Joe’ Sneak Peek Geek Oscar Boycott?            Top Stories: Latest SAG vs SAG Batman Goes Batshit Trouble For IATSE ICM’s Sam Cohn Retires Michigan Movie Studio Paramount vs Sony Sundance Good/Bad News Peter Chernin Leavin’? Hollywood Agency Layoffs Moviedom’s $1B January ‘G.I. Joe’ Sneak Peek Geek Oscar Boycott?            Top Stories: Latest SAG vs SAG Batman Goes Batshit Trouble For IATSE ICM’s Sam Cohn Retires Michigan Movie Studio Paramount vs Sony Sundance Good/Bad News Peter Chernin Leavin’? Hollywood Agency Layoffs Moviedom’s $1B January ‘G.I. Joe’ Sneak Peek Geek Oscar Boycott?            Top Stories: Latest SAG vs SAG Batman Goes Batshit Trouble For IATSE ICM’s Sam Cohn Retires Michigan Movie Studio Paramount vs Sony Sundance Good/Bad News Peter Chernin Leavin’? Hollywood Agency Layoffs Moviedom’s $1B January ‘G.I. Joe’ Sneak Peek Geek Oscar Boycott?           

Furious Horror Film Fans Target Lionsgate

I give TV and movie fans a lot of credit: when they get mad, they scare the crap out of the moguls. That's happening at Lionsgate where the studio's phones and email accounts are jammed with angry fans for the past week. They're making a stink because new Lionsgate topper Joe Drake appears to be dumping all of ex-prez Peter Block's movies. That includes Midnight Meat Train, the adaptation of the Barker short story that's a fan fave. Supposedly the trailer tested higher than any film in Lionsgate history. But when Drake took over, he promptly bumped Midnight Meat Train from its May 16th release date. The result was that Rogue Pictures' The Strangers (which was skedded two weekends later) had zero competition in the hard-R category. And guess who was exec producer of The Strangers? Joe Drake.

Then, the websites, Shock Til You Drop and Fangoria found out Lionsgate is planning only a 100 theater run on August 1st to merely fulfill the contractual obligation with Lakeshore Entertainment. The plan is to release the DVD immediately after. So fans are asking if Drake is such a dummy that he'd intentionally sink what to them is a sure-thing hit. And they want to know if the studio that was built on horror gross (both the gory and cash kinds) is going to bite the hand that's fed it so well in favor of four Tyler Perry movies a year.

The result is a lot of anti-Lionsgate blogging in Horrorville by fans, by self-appointed horror flick experts, and also by Barker himself. "I would passionately encourage everybody who cares about my work to use this chance to change the minds of the folks at Lionsgate," Barker, whose Midnight Picture Show company co-produced the film, recently stated on the Clive Barker's Revelations website. "I really think, this late in the day, that grassroots support for our movie could significantly improve our chances of reaching a much bigger audience theatrically." Lakeshore, too, is pushing hard. Midnight Meat Train is described as a cold, unyielding but also stylish slasher film that relishes exploitive gross-out gags. Not my kind of pic, to be sure. Especially when director Ryuhei Kitamura making his U.S. debut promised as much gore, if not more, as Saw and HostelSo I'd be a hypocrite not to applaud Lionsgate for wanting to move away from extreme hard-R. On the other hand, Lionsgate is far behind in studio market share right now. In the meantime, given the active imaginations of Clive Barker fans, I have this image in my head of Jon Feltheimer under the desk crouching in terror every time the phone rings...  

COMEDIES KICK BUTT! 'Kung Fu Panda' $60M Wkd; Adam Sandler's 'Zohan' $40M; #4 'Sex And The City' Nears $100M Cume

 

SUNDAY AM: North American box office gross expanded bigger than expected this weekend -- a gargantuan 25% more dollars taken in than the same weekend last year. DreamWorks Animation's feisty pot-bellied Kung Fu Panda distributed by Paramount led the way, fighting to a $60 million finish after opening to $20.3 million Friday and $22.5 million Saturday in very wide release at 4,114 theaters. This made the Jack Black-voiced toon Dreamworks Animation's all-time non-sequel opening, overpowering 2004 Shark Tale's $47.6M, and 2005 Madagascar's $47.2M (the latter over Memorial Weekend). The two studios were surprised how much the PG panda pic played like a non-family film. "More like a live action film than a traditional animated film where you normally get a Friday number, then a huge bump on Saturday," a Paramount insider told me. "But our Friday was bigger than we expected because we got more of a general audience. I attribute it to people loving pandas and Jack Black being a big star." Interestingly, exit polls showed that 55% of the audience was female, and 51% over age 25, and 71% age 17 and older.

Best of all, the toon has the next two weekends to itself before Disney/Pixar's Wall-E opens. Kung Fu Panda's success just goes to show that DreamWorks Animations' strategy of making 90-minute toons is shrewd: not only can theaters get in a lot of screenings, but both parents and offspring can sit through anything that short without too much squirming. (Actually, this panda received rave reviews.) Plus, I have a pet theory: almost any animated film featuring characters with fur does better at the box office. Anyway, with great tracking showing big awareness and wanna-see by parents and kids, Kung Fu Panda performed better than expected. 

Also exceeding expectations was Adam Sandler's PG-13 You Don't Mess With The Zohan, a Sony picture which Judd Apatow co-wrote under his banner. The highly original comedy about an Israeli spy turned NYC hairdresser with kickboxing moves had some really funny ads, though reviews were mostly terrible (only 35% positive among critics on RottenTomatoes.com). But this is Sandler and Apatow, branded together. So audiences responded: evenly split 51% female and 49% male; 51% over 25 years old. Zohan opened with $14.9 million Friday and $14 million Saturday from 3,462 theaters. for a $40M weekend. That's less than 2003's $42.2M Anger Management. But this is why the Sandler gets paid the mega-salary: because time and time again, his star power can open a comedy for a reliable $40M opening, give or take a few bucks. This is Sandler's 5th film to open to $40 Million or more and his 9th  title to open north of $30 million (Waterboy, Big Daddy, Click, The Longest Yard, 50 First Dates, I Now Pronounce You Chuck and LarryAnger Management, Mr. Deeds)Zohan is one of two near back-to-back laffers which Sandler and Apatow, long roommates before they were famous, are making together. (Photos of movie-goers and ticket-buyers by Jim Stevenson.)

As for the follow-up to last weekend's No. 1 Sex And The City, the HBO Films / New Line / Warner Bros' ultimate chick flick was No. 4, down 63% one week later to $21.3M in expanded 3,325 runs and a new cumulative of $99.2M.

The rest of the Top 10 were holdovers. Here's the chart:

1. Kung Fu Panda (DreamWorks Animation/Paramount) -- 3-day Wkd: $60M, Cume: $60M
2. You Don't Mess With The Zohan (Sony) -- 3-day Wkd: $40M, Cume $40M 
3. Indiana Jones 4 (Paramount) -- 3-Day Wkd: $22.8M, Cume: $253M
4. Sex And The City (HBO Films/New Line/WB) -- 3-day Wkd: $21.3M, Cume: $99.2M
5. The Strangers (Universal) -- 3-day Wkd $9.2M, Cume: $37.6M
6. Iron Man (Paramount) -- 3-Day Wkd: $7.5M, Cume: $288.8M
7. Chronicles of Narnia 2 (Disney) -- 3-Day Wkd: $5.5M, Cume: $125.8M
8. What Happens In Vegas (Fox) -- 3-Day Wkd: $3.4M, Cume: $72.2M
9. Baby Mama (Universal) -- 3-Day Wkd: $779K, Cume: $57.9M
10. Made Of Honor (Sony) -- 3-Day Wkd: $775K, Cume: $44.6M

'The Women' Trailer...

So here's The Women trailer that was playing with Sex And The City over the weekend. I find it funny, but I'd redo it to appeal more to the psychographic of SATC's two-quadrant audience. (Did you notice that the main lyrics to the Duffy song "Mercy" on the soundtrack of the trailer for The Women were: "Why won't you release me... I'm begging you for mercy"?) I've found out that The Women's budget was only $16.5 million, not the $18 million previously circulating. Wow, that's cheap. As I reported yesterday, Warner Bros is now going to "take another look" at marketing and distributing it in wide release: (See my previous post: Why Won't Warner Embrace 'The Women'? Or Will It? And What Other Female Film Isn't Getting Love There?

Box Office Update: Owen Wilson Bullied; 'Horton' No. 1 Again; 'Tyler Perry's Browns' #2, 'Shutter' (#3), 'Drillbit' (#4)

owen-wilson-2.jpgSUNDAY AM: Fox's family fare holdover Horton Hears A Who! rose to No. 1 again this Easter Weekend with a big $25.1 million haul, this time with $10.2 million Friday, $9.2 million Saturday and an estimated $5.6 million Sunday from 3,961 venues. That gives the Dr. Seuss toon a big box office cume of $86.4 mil after only a week in theaters. Meet The Browns starring writer/director/actor Tyler Perry's alter ego Madea as well as icon Angela Bassett opened in 2nd place for Lionsgate with $20.2 million this weekend from 2,006 plays. As we've seen before with Perry's pics, 65% of his moviegoers tend to be African-American, though there is still plenty of crossover because of family-oriented themes. Perry further cements his status as one of Hollywood's most reliable box office brands, A surprise for No. 3 was New Regency's Thai horror film Shutter, because of its PG-13 rating and aggressive Internet ad campaign. Distributed by Fox, the newcomer took in $10.7 million from 2,753 dates. All easily bested Paramount's Owen Wilson starrer Drillbit Taylor which placed only 4th: hurt by the star's refusal to dopublicity and the fact it plays young, the PG-13 tween comedy from Judd Apatow and Seth Rogen opened with $10.2 million despite a wide release of 3,056 runs. Meanwhile, I hear that Fox Searchlight/The Weinstein Co's new release Under The Same Moon, from writer/producer Ligiah Villalobos, had a record-breaking opening weekend for a Spanish language film, with $2.6 million in 266 venues here. It was also crushing in Mexico, making $1.6 million from 350 screens - - #3 behind only Horton and 10,000 BC, and the highest opening for a Mexican title in 2008.

The rest of the Top 10 from Friday's box office were holdovers. Here's the chart:

  1. 1. Horton Hears A Who!/Fox $10.2M Fri, $9.2M Sat, $5.6M Sun (cume $86.4M)
  2. 2. Meet The Browns/Lionsgate $8.1M Fri, $7.2M Sat, $4.7M Sun ($20.2M)
  3. 3. Shutter/New Regency-Fox $4.6M Fri, $3.7M Sat, $2.3M Sun ($10.7M)
  4. 4. Drillbit Taylor/Paramount $4.0M Fri, $3.7M Sat, $2.4M Sun ($10.2M)
  5. 5. 10,000 BC/Warner $3.1M Fri, $3.4M Sat, $2.3M Sun ($76.3M)
  6. 6. Never Back Down/Summit $1.8M Fri, $1.7M Sat, $1.1M Sun ($16.7M)
  7. 7. College Road Trip/Disney $1.8M Fri, $1.7M Sat, $1.1M Sun ($32.0M)
  8. 8. The Bank Job/Lionsgate $1.3M Fri, $1.7M Sat, $1.1M Sun ($19.4M)
  9. 9. Vantage Point/Sony $1.3M Fri, $1.5M Sat, $950K Sun ($65.2M)
  10. 10. Under The Same Moon/Fox Searchlight-The Weinstein Co $700K Fri, $1.0M Sat, $872K Sun ($3.3M)
    ---
    FRIDAY AM: Weekend Prediction is Madea Will Bully Owen

meetthebrowns_galleryposter.jpgFox's holdover Horton Hears A Who! should hang on for No. 1 because it's Easter weekend: expect between $24M-$30M million from 3,961 theaters and the toon to be down only 30% from its huge opening Friday-through-Sunday. Even though Paramount's Drillbit Taylor is playing in 1,000 more venues, it's still going to trail badly behind Lionsgate's Meet The Browns from writer/director/actor Tyler Perry.

As we've seen before with Perry's pics, while 65% of his moviegoers tend to be African-American, there is still plenty of crossover because of family-oriented themes. (Last October, his PG-13 Why Did I Get Married doubled the gross receipts of Triple-A List star George Clooney's R-rated Michael Clayton.) Perry is now one of Hollywood's most reliable box office brands, able to tap into a deep reservoir of comedic mayhem and melodrama that his moviegoers love. He's also critic-proof because his shtick is wearing thin for reviewers. Perry's movies starring his character Madea do very, very well -- and she's in Meet The Browns alongside class act Angela Bassett. That strong combo is why my analysts predict between high teens and low $20s (as in millions) from 2,006 theaters (although one studio marketer thinks it could get tally close to $30M).

Paramount doesn't expect its Drillbit Taylor to do much beyond low teens in 3,056 dates, and my box office gurus agree the weekend box office should range from $11M to $14M. Sure, the $30 million movie bears the Judd Apatow-Seth Rogen imprimatur, but as one analyst told me, "you've seen this plot a million times." shutter_galleryposter.jpg(The pic pays homage to Tony Bill's 1980 classic of this genre My Bodyguard with a cameo by its star Adam Baldwin.) With a running time of only 1 hour, 42 minutes, and just a PG-13 rating (most of Apatow's fare is R), Drillbit Taylor can withstand star Owen Wilson ducking publicity or those terrible reviews. After all, it's aimed at the tween boy crowd. "They're really hard to reach with television, but 12 million of them go to the movies and that's enough for the movie to play," one studio marketer told me. "These young people are really viral. If they go and like it, it'll catch on."

New Regency's Shutter (Thai horror without the graphic gore) launched an aggressive web ad campaign to make the review-challenged pic look like The Ring and The Grudge since it comes from the same executive producers. My box office gurus say it's not in good shape tracking-wise. Distributor Fox only expects $6M but others think it can do $8M-$10M in 2,753 venues because of its PG-13 rating. Basically, this movie only exists to answer the question: Where do the careers of Dawson's Creek has-beens go to die?

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Ed Norton And Marvel In 'Hulk'-ing Feud

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The Incredible Hulk trailer is on its way. It debuts Wednesday night at 9:56 pm on all the MTV channels and Spike TV and VH1. It gets shown Thursday at ShoWest. And it plays this weekend in front of Universal pics in the theaters. (But it's also being teased on YouTube now.) I'm told the pic's producer-screenwriter-star Edward Norton helped get the trailer ready last week and loves it.

hulk2.jpgBut does he also love the movie? Not yet.

I'm told that's because Norton and Marvel are clashing over how to cut the pic. Insiders say Norton was "promised tremendous involvement and access" after Marvel invited him into the core team to rewrite Zak Penn's script. Says one insider, "There's a lot of posturing going on between Edward's camp and Marvel over how you edit the final version." Sources also tell me that, starting last night and continuing at least throughout today, the actor will be holed up with Marvel Studios chairman David Maisel, Marvel Studios president of production Kevin Feige, and director Louis Leterrier to try to "reach an amicable resolution" to this $150+ million film feud.

Some insiders blame Marvel for not accepting Norton's POV about the movie. "There's a problem. Marvel won't listen to Norton about the cut," one source claims. But Norton has bonafides: he did that uncredited rewrite of Frida for his then girlfriend Selma Hayek and made his directorial debut on Keeping the Faith.

Some blame Norton, known to be prickly. Remember his problems with Paramount over The Italian Job and with director Tony Kaye over American History X? "Never let an actor write a script," one insider commented. "Marvel made a mistake letting the wolf into the hen house."

hulk1.jpgBut I say that, after Ang Lee's troubled The Hulk left audiences cold, The Incredible Hulk needs Edward Norton's warm support if the pic's gonna have any street cred. Some fear things blowing up to the point where Norton might not publicize the movie. And Marvel is petrified that the new Hulk may be judged "prematurely and unfairly." (Or that bloggers will start claiming the Hulk franchise is cursed.)

Right now, Marvel is said to be about 4 to 5 weeks away from locking the movie for its June 13th release by Universal whose top execs haven't yet seen it ("though some marketing guys have been working off a rough cut that's in pretty good shape," I'm told). "At this stage you always have discussions about what's in the film and what's not going to be in the film. Everyone's very passionate, and Edward is very opinionated." Said another source, "There is a very healthy exchange of ideas going on. Discussions now are even more heated. But some of Ed's best movies have had this exact dynamic to them. Everyone's in the process of figuring it out and working it out. But I expect it'll all get resolved pretty quickly."

How About Choosing The Worst Trailers?

reel.gifLet's see which TV network decides to turn this into the next awards show. The 12th Annual Hollywood Film Festival announced today the launch of the "Hollywood Trailer Festival" and "Hollywood Trailer Awards," claiming to be the first major festival honoring feature film previews. (As opposed to the established Golden Trailer Awards.) The idea is to recognize creativity and innovation in feature film previews in 12 categories: Best Action, Best Animation, Best Comedy, Best Documentary, Best Drama, Best Horror, Best Independent, Best Romance, Best Thriller, Most Original, Best Blockbuster and Best Trailer of the Decade. A panel of Hollywood notables will judge and select the nominees and winners. Five nominees in each category will be announced on October 6, and the winners will be honored during the 12th Annual Hollywood Film Festival, which take place from October 22 to October 27. (Hint: The festival and awards presenter is Starz Entertainment, a wholly owned subsidiary of Liberty Media Corporation. So given the nasty history of John Malone and Rupert Murdoch, I'd say the Fox network is a non-starter for televising it.)

#1 'American Gangster' Bullies Box Office; Seinfeld's 'Bee Movie' Buzzes To #2 Spot

agposters.JPG 

SUNDAY AM: Universal's American Gangster was a real monster at the domestic box office this weekend, gunning down all the competition for $46.3 million in gross receipts at 3,054 theaters. beemovie8.jpgThe Imagine production filled with Oscar winners & nominees -- written by Steven Zaillian, directed by Ridley Scott and starring Denzel Washington and Russell Crowe -- raked in $16 million Friday and $17.8 million Saturday (up 11%). That makes this biopic drama the 2nd biggest R-rated motion picture opening in history for a movie that's more than 2 1/2-hours long (behind Troy's $46.8M but ahead of Gladiator's $34.8M). It's also Denzel's and Russell's career best opening ever, and the second biggest drama in history to open in November (behind Eight Mile's $51.2M but ahead of Jarhead's $27.7M).

"This is as great as I could possibly have dreamed," a studio source told me. Indeed, there were huge sighs of relief around Universal which had been trying bigtime all week to lower expectations for American Gangster's debut for a myriad reasons. Not the least of which was the sudden appearance of a pirated copy on the Internet, plus a fall slump with many R-rated dramas failing to gain traction. But American Gangster was the highest grossing film of Fall 2007 (ahead of Saw IV's $31.7M), its large gross generated by an audience that was more than 50% over 30 years old.denzel_washington12.jpg But this weekend ends all that with the biggest anticipated box office from Friday through Sunday since 2007's record-breaking summer. Busy like a bee -- specifically Jerry Seinfeld's PG-rated Bee Movie which opened a big No. 2 this weekend. My sources say the DreamWorks Animation toon distributed by Paramount took in around $10.2 million Friday from 3,928 venues but then really buzzed during Saturday kiddie matinees to take in $17 million (up a whopping 66% that day). This animated pic aimed at a four-quadrant audience enjoyed a honey of a $39.1 million weekend. Still, with a running time of only 90 minutes, Bee Movie was able to squeeze in many more showings than American Gangster which clocks in at 2 hours 38 minutes.

gangster4.jpgBoth big hits had very different marketing strategies. The team behind American Gangster started way back at the very beginning of the summer with only one trailer (tagged to Ocean's Thirteen) and then staying with just that ad until only two weeks ago. This was a major departure for the studio. But a single clip especially resonated -- bad guy Denzel showing what a good son he is by buying his mother a house. "This most talked-about scene was one of many powerful  suggestions of the complexity of the film," a Universal insider told me. The team behind the movie also wanted to draw on all the similarities to last year's Oscar-winner The Departed, which also centered on cops and gangsters, also starred marquee actors and had a famous director, also earned an R rating, and also received stellar reviews (80% positive for American Gangster on Rotten Tomatoes). The Departed not only opened to $26.7 million from almost the same number of theaters but went on to earn $132+M domestically and $289+M worldwide. Icing on American Gangster's cake was when hip hop impresario JayZ personally created an album inspired by it. And its plot about a Harlem crime boss, plus young African American actors in supporting roles, appealed to urban audiences. Moviegoers were ethnically diverse with 44% Caucasians and 36% African Americans.

beemovie9.jpgIn contrast, Jerry Seinfeld, who voiced and co-wrote and produced, went anywhere and everywhere promoting his new movie almost to the point of overexposure. (Jerry got busted for his arrogant appearance on Larry King who's part of the pic; the viral video was all over the Internet Friday.)  He also did anything and everything to market it, including pitch MickeyD. As a result, the Bee Movie is that rare toon trying to cash in on both the kid market (with animation) and the adult market (with Seinfeld fans). "There's nothing traditionally family about Jerry's position in the marketplace," an exec told me tonight. So, despite so-so reviews (55% positive) and no records set, Bee Movie did B+ biz. I've learned the pic proved strongest with moviegoers under 25, especially young families and young parents. It skewed slightly more female than male. Across the board, the biggest draw was its type of movie, animation. And the No. 2 reason was Seinfeld himself. "Jerry was so intrinsically linked to the movie," a Paramount insider told me today.

The only other newcomer at the box office was New Line's Martian Child starring John Cusack in what barely qualified as a Lifetime TV movie instead of in 2,020 big screen theaters. It's yet another flop for Bob Shaye's company, coming in only 6th with $1.1 million Friday and dropping to 7th after Saturday's paltry $1.5 million for what was a disastrous $3.5 mil weekend.

The rest of the top 10 were familiar titles. Here's the chart:

  1. 1. American Gangster  $16M Fri, $17.8M Sat, [wkd $46.3M], (cume $46.3M)
  2. 2. Bee Movie  $10.2M Fri, $17M Sat, [wkd $39.1M], (cume $39.1M)
  3. 3. Saw IV  $3.6M Fri, $4.4M Sat, [wkd $10.6M], (cume $50.6M)
  4. 4. Dan In Real Life  $2.6M Fri, $3.6M Sat [wkd $8.1M], (cume $22.9M)
  5. 5. 30 Days Of Night  $1.2M Fri, $1.6M Sat, [wkd $4M], (cume $34.2M)
  6. 6. The Game Plan  $1.0M Fri, $1.9M Sat, [wkd $3.8M], (cume $81.9M)
  7. 7. Martian Child  $1.1M Fri, $1.5M Sat, [wkd $3.6M], (cume $3.6M)
  8. 8. Michael Clayton  $853K Fri, $1.3M Sat, [wkd $2.9M], (cume $33.2M)
  9. 9. Why Did I Get Married?  $751K Fri, $1.3M Sat, [wkd $2.7M], (cume $51.2M)
  10. 10. Gone Baby Gone  $687K Fri, $1M Sat, [wkd $2.3M], (cume $14.8M)

Weekend Predictions: Five Films Fighting

filmsbattle.JPG

Competition is finally heating up at the megaplex again after the September/October movie box office is way down compared to last year's. (I blame all the sports on TV right now.) This weekend, five movies -- newcomers, holdovers, some going wide -- will compete for gross receipts. Let's look first at what's opening. whydidigetmarried_gallerytheatrical.jpgSony at the Cannes Film Festival paid $11 million for the domestic rights to We Own The Night (from Mark Cuban's 2929 Productions) and is hoping for at least a $12 million debut this weekend. I hear the tracking for the Joaquin Phoenix and Mark Wahlberg starrer in 2,362 theaters still isn't good, despite a crackling though muted ad campaign and the tempting pairing of those two terrific actors. But reviews of the pic (62% among the Cream Of The Crop critics on Rotten Tomatoes) are only mixed. So it'll probably end up No. 3. Instead, awareness is very high for Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married from Lionsgate opening in 2,011 dates. His films do reliably well so my box office gurus expect this pic to be No. 2. Universal's Elizabeth: The Golden Age is getting a lot of media attention and Oscar buzz but only opening in 1,951 venues. If those are in urban areas and college towns, then its per screen average should be very high. If not...

My analysts forsee Warner's very adult legal drama Michael Clayton, which expands into 2,511 theaters this weekend, as the No. 1 film. If not, then George Clooney's popularity as an actor isn't what the media or Hollywood thinks it is. americangangster_gallerytheatrical.jpgAfter all, the movie is one of the best reviewed this early fall: 90% on Rotten Tomatoes. But consider -- except for his ensemble franchise Ocean's 11, 12 & 13 or the similarly ensemble A Perfect Storm, I can't name one George Clooney movie that opened big at the box office. (But you don't hear Warner execs vowing to stop making him the star of their pics...)

Disney's family fare The Game Plan should continue strong thanks to Saturday matinees. And DreamWorks / Paramount's The Heartbreak Kid remake will continue to fall apart.

As for the future, tracking is on overload with so many pics coming up. Looking big: Imagine / Universal's American Gangster (Nov 2nd), Jerry Seinfeld's Bee Movie (Nov 2nd) for DreamWorks / Paramount, and Lionsgate's Saw IV (Oct 26th)

Movie Mogul Mayhem: Aviv vs Shmuger

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Instead of just two movies competing at the box office this Friday, there are two moguls slugging it out. Vying for No. 1 will be The Game Plan from Disney, and The Kingdom from Universal. But the behind the scenes catfight is what's really interesting because both titles are the first films greenlit by their respective and recently installed (as in 2006) studio chieftains. The Game Plan was part of the trio of films (including Dan in Real Life + National Treasure: Book of Secrets) that Walt Disney Studios Motion Picture Production Prez Oren Aviv OK'ed for his first slate. At Universal Pictures, The Kingdom was in chairman Marc Shmuger's first slate as well. So there's an undeclared war between them and their signature films for bragging rights. Right now, distribution (between 2,700-2,800 theaters) and marketing money (about $30+ mil each) are even steven. But the pics are apples vs oranges: PG-rated family fare featuring The Rock (and a terrible trailer) vs R-rated action drama starring Jamie Foxx (and a kick ass ad campaign). Awareness for The Game Plan is tracking better than for The Kingdom, but the latter movie (appealing mainly to men older than 25) has Oscar buzz and should stick around longer.   

Putting Summer 2007 On The Couch...

Hollywood has no institutional memory. One of the reasons that the vast majority of its execs aren’t in therapy, and should be, is because they don’t want to talk about the past even if it’s prologue. They’re purposefully amnesiac. Otherwise, they’d have to confront the lunatic decisions they make over and over again (since repeating the same behavior and expecting different results is one definition of insanity). Which is why I want to revisit Summer 2007 whose $4.18 billion worth of threequels and blockbusters smashed the May 1st through Labor Day domestic box office gross record. (Not adjusted for inflation or ticket prices, however, which is why Hollywood stats have as many asterisks these days as does baseball.) It’s not that Hollywood denizens started doing everything right. It’s more like they just started doing less things wrong. The product is still terrible. The process is still tainted. The system is still broken. Feed it with praise and its players will never engage in the introspection necessary to ask, “What the hell are we doing even playing this rotten game?” So let me review what Hollywood learned during its summer vacation:

Don’t make threequels with cast and director intact: So the first Spider-Man and Pirates Of The Caribbean and Rush Hour were humongous hits. And the sequels made even more moolah than the originals primarily because original stars Tobey Maguire, Johnny Depp and Chris Tucker were on board as well as repeat helmers Sam Raimi, Gore Verbinski and, yes, even Brett Ratner. samraimi.jpgThe consistency certainly helped make the pics into profitable franchises in the first place. But by the time the threequels rolled around, the budgets became as bloated as the talent's salaries. Chris Tucker shook down New Line for a new pay record on Rush Hour 3, while Brett Ratner brought the studio to its knees when he went wildly overbudget. And both Spidey 3 and Pirates 3 broke the $300 mil cost barrier not counting marketing costs. Then again, directors Raimi and Verbinski respectively were allowed to do pretty much anything they wanted, even making absurdly ass-numbingly long pics, because the studios were so desperate to keep the franchises going. No one wants to get off the gravy train, but if the fourquels are ever going to see the light of day, hire hungrier helmers whom the studios can more easily bludgeon into obedience and/or hotter younger stars to freshen the franchises.

Don’t make expensive comedies: The whole point of greenlighting laughers is supposed to be because they’re cheap. They’re the K-Mart of motion pictures, not the Neiman Marcus (aka Needless Mark-Up). Judd Apatow’s Knocked Up cost only $30 mil. His Superbad was only $20 mil. tomjesus.JPGConstrast that to Evan Almighty’s $210 mil. If a comedy has to rely on CGI for humor instead of spittakes and pratfalls, don’t make that script.

Don’t go after the religious market: There’s no surer guarantee of box office disaster than to make a movie aimed at appealing to The Passion Of The Christ audience. Look, that pic evolved from Mel Gibson’s deeply felt religious beliefs – not from a pitch meeting. Universal moguls dragged out every trick in the Christian playbook to Hail Mary make and market Evan Almighty's tired Noah’s Ark retelling. But the Passion crowd wants stories based on the New Testament. Heathen Hollywood didn’t comprehend that.

chef_remy.jpgDon’t forget that the toys are more important than the toons: Granted, summer kiddie matinees are one of Hollywood’s most profitable traditions. But Sony still lost $50 mil on its underperforming Surf’s Up animated pic this summer. Then again, Pixar films have lost their magic and each keeps earning less than the previous one. At least last summer’s Cars was a merchandising bonanza. Not so with this summer’s Ratatouille because even Disney can't market a kitchen rat. I still don’t understand why Remy wasn’t transformed into Lucy Lapin or Gary Grenouille.

Don’t expect niche audience pics to gross over $200 mil: One of the reasons so many tentpoles did so well this summer is that they appealed simultaneously to several generations of moviegoers. Of course, wide demos went to see Spidey 3 and Pirates 3 and Shrek The Third. But also Transformers whose toys and toons were first introduced back in 1984. So not only did today’s tykes, tweens and teens want to see the bots battle, but so did guys in their 20s and 30s and 40s for whom nostalgia was the big draw.

Don’t bank on stale mythologies: Just as 300 breathed new life into tiresome toga tales, so did Pirates of the Caribbean provide a fresh take on what long hair, eye makeup and nice jewelry can do for a guy at sea. elianimation.gifThis summer’s handful of original pics helped reinvent the anti-hero, whether robots or Seth Rogan or EPA head Russ Cargill. Of course, I keep waiting in vain for comic book films to flop, but then I don’t do geek.

Don’t think the public wants torture porn: Gore icon Eli Roth is blaming piracy and critics for his Hostel Part II’s lousy box office, warning that the R-rated horror film is in serious jeopardy. But he got it all wrong even before the summer started when he wished in interviews that "hopefully we'll get to a point where there are absolutely no restrictions on any kind of violence in movies”. Horror flicks are alive and well as long as they don’t venture into torture porn hell. Problem is, Hollywood filmmakers are such an inbred bunch that they make films more for each other than for the audience so they always want to push the boundaries set by their rivals. In the case of torture porn, don’t. It’s icky.

joliepearl.jpgDon’t believe in summer counterprogramming: The chances were nil that an adult-oriented downer movie like A Mighty Heart could do well, especially when sexy star Angelina Jolie dresses down and dons a horrible wig, if the alternatives at the megaplex are super robots, super heroes and super sperm. Talk about idiocy. Release those small, important, politically-themed Oscar hopeful films in the fall.

Don’t make chick flicks that even chicks won’t go to see: When I saw the ads for Evening and Georgia Rule and No Reservations and Lucky You, I gagged. Hey, I love a good romance,. But don’t stretch credulity and cast a real-life glamour gal like Catherine Zeta-Jones as a working single mother with boyfriend problems.

Don’t make movies starring Lindsay Lohan: This summer provided proof her act has worn thin. Moviegoers gave an "F" to Lindsay Lohan's horror flick I Know Who Killed Me. lindsaylohan.jpgAnd 70-year-old Jane Fonda beat the 20-year-old head-to-head at the box office while starring in the same movie when exit polls showed 53% of the audience for Georgia Rule went to see Jane Fonda (even though she was channeling her father Henry), and only 34% went to see Lindsay Lohan (whose price quote sank by half after this summer).

Don’t make commercial movies with Nicole Kidman: When John Cusack can open a horror film (1408), and Nicole can’t (The Invasion), this actress has officially become box office poison. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: Nicole should be paying film companies to hire her, not the other way around. I don’t care if she can act: she’s the female equivalent of Sean Penn. Let her finance her own films from now on.

Don’t think you can skate with a lousy trailer: Ads will always be the bedrock of a movie’s marketing campaign, and they’ve never been more important because of all the competition and clutter. Rush Hour 3 and I Now Pronounce You Chuck And Larry would have been stillborn had it not been for summer trailers funnier than the pics themselves. Stardust and Balls of Fury had terrible trailers and were flops at the box office.

judd_apatow.jpgDon’t forget that Judd Apatow is officially now a mogul: More bowing and scraping to him is therefore called for. And a bigger bonus than the $1 mil Universal forked over. I hear Amy Pascal is serious about having Sony buy him his own country.

Don’t expect the international box office to save Hollywood summers forever: Yeah, French and Russian TV sucks worse than NBC. But one of these days, and probably sooner rather than later, entertainment choices in Bolivia and Bahrain will become as myriad as those in the U.S., and foreigners will find better ways to amuse themselves than sitting through American crap like Daddy Day Camp.

What Do Peter Morton & Paramount Have In Common? A Movie That's Gonna Bomb

stardust_bigreleaseposter.jpgThere are two things you may not know about Stardust, opening this weekend. 1) Good thing Brad Grey is vacationing in Europe with his family. Because he'll miss the pic's disastrous domestic opening this weekend. Even budgeted without marketing costs at $70 million (which sounds way low to me because of all the special effects excess), director Matthew Vaughn's adventure romance fantasy is tracking horribly for its Friday opening in 2,300 theaters. "The over/under this weekend is at $15 million," one of my box office gurus tells me. Yikes! Plus, the trailers starring Claire Danes, Robert DeNiro, Michelle Pfeiffer and Sienna Miller have to be among the worst I've ever seen. (They remind me of the promos for that huge Terry Gilliam bomb, The Adventures Of Baron Munchausen, though Stardust's producers prefer to compare their pic to Princess Bride on steroids.) Anyway, though it'll do nil biz domestically, Paramount is still "very bullish" on the pic's chances overseas because of the international cast. But, seriously, look at all the Paramount-branded bombs this year: last weekend's Hot Rod, plus Next, Shooter and Zodiac (a leftover from the Sherry Lansing era). Yet the studio is now first place in market share only because of DreamWorks, which is about to cross the $1 billion mark at the domestic box office this year.

morton2.jpg2) So here's the silver lining: I'm told Paramount is only into the pic for $35 million because it's distributing worldwide through PPI for the studio's full fee. The other 50% was financed mostly by Peter Morton with Vaughn's UK-based MARV Films and Ingenious Film Partners, one of the biggest UK players in movie financing. Yes, that Peter Morton, of Hard Rock Cafe and Las Vegas hotel fame. You see, Vaughn is a longtime Morton family friend who bussed tables at the Hard Rock Cafe before Peter started him in showbiz. The Layer Cake helmer also is married to supermodel Claudia Schiffer who read Neil Gaiman's famed novel when she was pregnant and thought her husband should make it into a film.

Comic-Con: The Ultimate Hollywood Orgy

comicon.JPGI don't do geek. But that doesn't matter because this weekend most Hollywood studios are pushing ALL their movie and other entertainment product at Comic-Con in San Diego. It's like, let's throw mud against the wall and see what sticks. (Which explains why Owen Wilson's latest comedy Drillbit Taylor to the Get Smart remake are poised for convention traction.) The result is that the true Comic-Con oriented product gets lost in the orgy of all the other stuff being promo-ed. On the other hand, the 120,000+ fans are incredibly grateful since they don't get out much. (Just kidding.) Said one Warner's insider to me, "So cool to see fans respond to content. There's a great energy and makes me proud that I work in this biz. Some days it can feel like I'm just in insurance." Check out my sister paper OC Weekly's Comic-Con blog. In the meantime, here's my studio-by-studio roundup:

SONY
sony_pictures_logo.jpgThere's a hot ticket screening of Superbad tonight followed by a Q&A with Judd Apatow, Greg Mottola, Seth Rogen, etc. The trailer for Walk Hard will be shown beforehand. On Saturday, Sony's panel starts with footage of Resident Evil: Extinction, with a special appearance by Milla Jovovich as well as the world premiere of the trailer. Sony is also showing footage of 30 Days Of Night with an appearance by producer Sam Raimi. Sony's home entertainment division is hosting a “Blu-ray Experience” event including director Eli Roth and Ray Harryhausen (his legendary 20 Million Miles To Earth is being released on Blu-ray). Imageworks and Sony Online Entertainment divisions hold a panel discussion and screening of special footage of Spider-Man 3. Also, Sony will preview its hottest upcoming games.

DISNEY
disney-logo2.jpgWalt Disney Pictures is presenting The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian and Disney / Pixar’s WALL•E in Hall H on Saturday. The Caspian filmmakers will present never-before-seen footage of the second installment of the epic fantasy-adventure series, with appearances by director Andrew Adamson, producer Mark Johnson, WETA Workshop’s Richard Taylor, creature supervisor Howard Berger, visual effects supervisor Dean Wright, and costume designer Isis Mussenden. For WALL•E , Academy Award-winning director Andrew Stanton (Finding Nemo) and Academy Award-winning sound designer Ben Burtt (Star Wars, ET) present exclusive footage of Disney / Pixar’s next adventure.

WARNER
warnerbroslogo-200.jpgSome people don't realize that Warner Bros owns DC Comics, the ground zero of Comic-Con. So tons of panels and activities around the DC Comics' books and projects are planned. On the movie side, the studio held its theatrical preview featuring The Invasion, One Missed Call, 10,000 BC, Whiteout, Speed Racer, Get Smart, Trick R Treat and Watchman.  Steve Carell and The Rock from Get Smart were huge hits there. Clips played great. (But the studio made the decision early on not to use Comic-Con to present The Dark Knight or its highly anticipated I Am Legend.) Other promos include TV previews of some of Warner's new and returning shows as well as DVD pushes (300 includes a huge screening at Petco Park), animation series and games previews.

PARAMOUNT
paramount-logo.jpgParamount's slate totally killed at Comic-Con. The studio pulled out all the stops promoting its J.J. Abrams' reimagined Star Trek with surprise star Leonard Nimoy as one of two Mr. Spocks (the other is Zachary Quinto, who plays Sylar on Heroes) appearing to wild surprise, Iron Man, and Indy 4 complete via satellite with Harrison Ford and Steven Spielberg who intro'ed Karen Allen with much fanfare. Altogether, Paramount, DreamWorks and Nickolodeon unveiled exclusive movie footage and major casting announcements. First scenes of Iron Man was shown by director John Favreau as was the world premiere trailers for Beowulf and Drillbit Taylor. The afternoon panel included appearances by Hot Rod director Akiva Schaffer and actors Andy Samberg and Jorma Taccone, Neil Gaiman with a clip from the film version of his graphic novel Stardust screened Thursday. A trailer from The Spiderwick Chronicles was followed by a Q&A with the film’s director Mark Waters, Oscar-winning special effects whiz Phil Tippett and authors of the books. And the first poster art for Tim Burton’s Sweeney Todd starring Johnny Depp was revealed.

MGM
mgmlogosmall.jpgMGM is bringing down talent from Pathology for a panel on Sunday with a sizzle reel and Q-&-A. The film stars Milo Ventimiglia, Alyssa Milano, Michael Weston, Lauren Lee Smith, was written and directed by the writers of Crank, Mark Neveldine and Brian Taylor and directed by Marc Schoelermann. There'll be a lot of promotion around Stargate and its various series and titles.

UNIVERSAL 
universal_logo12.jpgThe studio is staying low-key. There's just a Q&A panel with the cast and filmmakers of The Incredible Hulk including Edward Norton, Liv Tyler, director Louis Leterrier and producers Avi Arad and Gale Anne Hurd as well as Kevin Feige of Marvel.

20TH CENTURY FOX
chicagocritics1.jpgThere were "aw's" when fans heard that 20th cancelled its big theatrical preview without giving a reason to the assembled masses. But Hollywood had already been told one week before the confab kickoff. Problem was the footage Fox wanted to show for several of its pics just wasn't ready or else too violent. So no studio push for Alien vs. Predator 2, Hitman, Jumper, Babylon A.D., The Dark Is Rising and City of Ember. Also no planned Fox montages for R-rated AVP and Hitman. Instead, 20th's home video division, Fox TV, Fox Atomic and Fox Searchlight are presenting.

Tracking: Simpsons $50M, Bourne $40M

thesimpsonsmovie_bigfinalposter.jpg bourneultimatum_bigreleaseposter.jpg

The Simpsons Movie tracking for its July 27th release is looking very strong, with estimates coming in to me of a $50+ opening weekend. I don't see a single misstep by Fox when it comes to marketing this toon so far: the plot is still somewhat secret, the bloggers are overheated, the 7-Eleven reverse product placement is epic. And the pic's appeal, like the TV series, crosses all ages, races, creeds and ethnicities. "Huge hit" is everyone's analysis, and the foreign gross receipts will be massive.

Universal is already anticipating a big new Matt Damon The Bourne Ultimatum for August 3rd. And they're right: my box office analysts are projecting a $40+ million opening for this threequel in the profitable franchise. That's great for a PG-13 thriller light on CGI these days -- and bigger than Bourne #2 (the June 2002 original The Bourne Identity which opened to $27 mil), but not Bourne #1 (the July 2004 sequel The Bourne Supremacy which debuted to $53 mil). The bad news is that a lot of tentpoles will still be going strong in theaters come August, and I hear reshoots made the price of this Bourne creep upwards. With the new pic billed as the last of this Jason Bourne trilogy, it's a veritable must-see. 

Finally, New Line's Rush Hour 3 came on tracking looking "strong" for August 10th. Too early for numbers. But for weeks and weeks, the trailers have been praised for being especially funny.

Germany Bans Tom's Latest Film Just As Cruise's UA Starts High-Profile Campaign

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2ND UPDATE: According to United Artists, Germany's reported opposition to UA's movie-in-the-works Valkyrie filming at military sites has less to do with its star Cruise's being a "dangerous" Scientology and more to do with fuss and bother. Yes It's Clear, Tom Cruise, Perfectly Clear

UPDATE: United Artists CEO Paula Wagner responds to Germany nixing the studio's new pic from filming at military sites because its star Tom Cruise is a Scientologist. (The German government has long claimed Scientology is a cult out to make money. Cruise, Travolta and other celeb members have lobbied U.S. leaders to pressure Germany to stop its anti-Scientology campaign.) Although the Defense Ministry has not yet received official requests from United Artists, Valkyrie "will not be allowed to film at German military sites if Count Stauffenberg is played by Tom Cruise, who has publicly professed to being a member of the Scientology cult," a Defense Ministry spokesman said today. The movie is about Stauffenberg's heroic involvement in the real-life 1944 "July Plot" to assassinate Hitler; it was supposed to start filming in Berlin next month. Today, Paula Wagner responded: "Aside from his obvious admiration of the man he is portraying, Mr. Cruise’s personal beliefs have absolutely no bearing on the movie’s plot, themes, or content. And even though we could shoot the movie anywhere in the world, we believe Germany is the only place we can truly do the story justice." 

uasmaller.jpgThat reborn studio, United Artists, is showing its first trailer for a movie, choosing to showcase before Fox's Live Free Or Die Hard. It's a teaser for the political drama directed by Robert Redford Lions for Lambs starring Tom Cruise, Meryl Streep, and Redford which debuts in November. The pic is about how injuries sustained by two Army rangers behind enemy lines in Afghanistan set off a sequence of events involving a congressman, a journalist, and a college professor. This is the first of what appears to be the start of a campaign to raise the profile of UA, basically Tom's giant fuck-you to Sumner Redstone. Both Cruise and his producing partner Paula Wagner are UA directors and shareholders after striking a deal to run and revive it with parent company MGM. First, they reworked the UA logo (still unveiled). Now Wagner this month gave an interview to the Financial Times. She talked again how the team is closing in on $500 million in production financing being arranged by Merrill Lynch. streepredford.JPGAfter months and months of promises about it, I hear it will close before the end of this month. She said the plan is to make only four pics a year. To publicize the studio formed back in 1919 by Hollywood actors, Wagner showed the FT journo a clip reel of classic scenes from some of UA's best-known films complete with stirring music: The African QueenSome Like it HotDr NoOne Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest and The Great Escape. The other movie on UA's slate is the World War II drama based on the true story of the "July plot" to assassinate Hitler, Valkyrie, which stars Cruise along with Kenneth Branagh. It starts shooting in Berlin on July 19th and reunites the Usual Suspects team: director Bryan Singer and writers Chris McQuarrie and Nathan Alexander. Already, the studio has hired two veterans: ex Paramount exec Don Granger, who also served as production head at Cruise/Wagner Prods, as UA's prez of production, and Disney movie marketer and publicist Dennis Rice as UA's prez of worldwide marketing and publicity.

  1. The 411 On Tom's Partner Paula Wagner
  2. Anything Happen While I Was Sleeping?
  3. Who's Crazier: Viacom or Tom Cruise?

Finke/LA Weekly: Blockbusters Cometh

In my latest lalogo.gif column, The Blockbusters Cometh, some of the biggest Hollywood movies expected to earn $4.5 billion from May through August are too long and too costly, and their plots uneven. A lot of spirituality is written into stories, which, if overdone, could be nauseating. Some small dramas seem inappropriate for summer releases, too many toons could mean animation overload, and a lot of horror pics and chick flicks won’t see daylight in the shadow of all the tent-pole releases.

Welcome to the 2007 Summer Movie Season...

summer1b.jpgMay 4: Not only did Warner Bros. wait to release the Curtis Hanson–directed Lucky You two years after it wrapped, but they dumped it opposite that man-boy in a spider suit. The execs obviously share my opinion that a Drew Barrymore–Eric Bana combo can’t open a movie. As for Spider-Man 3, its 140-minute running time is ass-numbing, even though director Sam Raimi ties up loose ends from SM1 and SM2. On the other hand, For the U.S. market, Sony Pictures has made 11,000+ prints and rounded up 4,000+ theaters to show the film as well as sneak it in major cities around the country with Thursday midnight showings. (At Pacific’s The Grove Stadium 14 in Los Angeles, screenings will start at 12:01 a.m., 12:05 a.m., 12:10 a.m., 12:15 a.m. and 12:20 a.m.) Obviously, the studio is doing everything it can to ensure that the threequel makes over $100-plus mil its opening weekend, before any bad word of mouth sets in. (SM1 took in $114 mil and SM2 $88 mil.) But privately, Sony dreams of a greedy $150 mil debut, given the pic’s hefty $300-plus-mil unofficial price tag.

May 11: Spider-Man 3 gets another clear shot because nothing big is opening. Universal is counterprogramming with the chick flick Georgia Rule and a terrific cast of Jane Fonda, Felicity Huffman and Lindsay Lohan. But Garry Marshall has gone a long time between hits. Fox Atomic scares up the horror sequel 28 Days Later.

May 18: The buzz on DreamWorks Animation's Shrek the Third has been that it’s nowhere near as good as the first or second installment. You know expectations are supersoft when an insider jokes that the movie should build its marketing campaign around the toon’s running time. “Parents, it’s only 81 minutes!” Talk is that Eddie Murphy snagged $25 mil to be a jackass again. Right now, tracking shows that the pic will be big, but not Spider-Man 3 or Pirates 3 big, even with, or in spite of, Justin Timberlake voicing. (more...)

'Spider-Man 3' Tracking "Thru The Roof"! Black Spidey Looks Bigger Than 1 And 2

spiderman3_refredposter.jpgEXCLUSIVE (refresh for latest): It's very early, still. But I'm told the first round of tracking for Spider-Man 3 is better than the first pulse that was registered for either Spidey 1 or 2 pics in this all-important Sony franchise. Remember: the first two had a combined worldwide theatrical gross of $1.6 billion: $821.7 million for Spider-Man 1 and $783.7 mil for Spider-Man 2. "The early awareness and indicators are through the roof," one box office guru told me. Said another expert: "With so many other movies struggling for attention this year, SM3 came on [tracking] with over 90% awareness and over 20% first choice a month out." The big upside for Spider-Man 3, I'm told, is that moviergoers are responding like crazy to director Sam Raimi's dark and disturbing "Black Spidey" very cool iconography that characterizes the third installment along with its tag line "The Greatest Battle Lies Within." With great trailers, aggressive Internet and TV promotion, and a storyline which the other two films seemed to building towards, Spider-Man 3 should amass a $100+ million opening weekend in the United States beginning May 4th because, based on tracking, "the number is massive," I'm told. tobey_maguire6.jpg(SM1 had a $114 mil opening weekend and SM2 $88 mil.) The new pic's release will be a global event. Spider-Man 3 will debut first in China before it officially opens in North America. Since comic book caper kicks off the 2007 summer movie season, this is clearly going to be a banner year at the box office -- probably the biggest in cinematic history -- given all the sequels, prequels and tentpole pics being released. (See my LA Weekly column Orgy Of Sequels Climaxing In 2007.) There's one downside: Wall Street film financing experts tell me that, based on SM3's budget, it may well be the most expensive film ever made. Sony privately is admitting to a budget of $250 mil, but analysts tell me it's more like $300+ mil. (The previous $$$ record-holder is Warner's remake of Charlie And The Chocolate Factory which cost about $272 mil, analysts say.) And that's even without the promotion and advertising costs which are said to be another $75+ mil. (more...)

'Die Hard 4' Trailer Is Fox Record-Breaker

bruce_willis21.jpgGet ready with all those Minoxidil jokes before this pic opens June 27th. But I'm told the exclusive-to-Yahoo full trailer for Live Free Or Die Hard has tested higher than the trailers for any action movie in Fox history. And that's saying a lot: I still remember the stunned-into-silence impact on audiences that the studio's Independence Day trailer had back in 1996 when U.S. landmarks like the Empire State Building and the White House were shown blowing up. And that was pre-9/11. But, seriously, this DH4 trailer is better than that? This isn't Bruce married to Demi anymore (yeah, the last Die Hard installment was that long ago, back in 1995), it's Bruce post-Pulp Fiction who nowadays makes movies not many people go to see anymore. But he's also kept himself in kick-ass shape with no obviously discernible plastic surgery to mess up his face like Sly Stallone or Michael Douglas. The question is whether there's nostalgia for John McClane still battling terrorists -- see how ahead of his time he was? -- not to mention the inevitable John McClane vs Jack Bauer internet arguments. Supposedly, it has all the testosterone of the originals, only in slicker and more CG-wiz packaging bruce_willis11.jpgsince it's directed by Len Wiseman (Underworld I and II) and not that dinosaur (and Pellicano Scandal perjurer) John McTiernan or even Renny Harlin, who's been MIA from major movies. But I think it's the humor quotient that will ultimately decide its box office prospects. That's what made Die Hard such an irrestistible franchise, because the 1st installment packed a lot of punch lines. The fact that Kevin Smith (Clerks, Jay and Silent Bob) is in it bodes well. I gotta say, though, it remains to be seen how smart it was to cast Justin Long as Bruce's baby-faced sidekick because a little of him goes a long way. (You know -- Warren P. Cheswick from Ed, the geek on those annoying PC vs Apple ads, the cut-up who  thinks he's making laugh-riot comments on VH1 I Love The 80s series.) I think Topher Grace would have been a much better choice? But, oops, he's already in Spidey 3.  

DHD's Top Movie Trailers Seen Right Now

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  • Shrek the Third
  • Transformers
  • Spider-Man 3
  • Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer
  • Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End
  • Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
  • Live Free or Die Hard
  • Grindhouse
  • Ghost Rider
  • Sunshine