Last year the Atlanta Falcons went on and on about how they loved Glenn Dorsey and right up through the morning of the draft they were going to take him with the #3 pick. Then when the moment of truth finally came they realized their quarterbacks were Chris Redman and Joey Harrington and they selected Matt Ryan. I think a similar thing will happen in Detroit this year. The Lions new front office regime will strongly consider Aaron Curry and Jason Smith and talk them up to the media but ultimately they will remember that Daunte Culpepper is their current starter and that revelation will prompt them to do the right thing. Then again these are the Detroit Lions and they didn’t just go 0-16 by making smart decisions on Draft Day… The “Golden Rule of the NFL Draft”
is that unless you already have a franchise quarterback you don’t pass on one and the Lions don’t have one. There are no sure things in the NFL Draft, especially when it comes to quarterbacks, but Matthew Stafford is potentially the type of player you can build a team around and he has everything you look for physically along with top intangibles to boot. Some will make the case that it’s senseless to draft a quarterback if you can’t protect him but Falcons fans were saying the exact same thing last year about Matt Ryan. The Lions still have two more premium picks (#20 and #33) to beef up their offensive line and worst-case there is absolutely nothing wrong with letting the 21-year-old Stafford sit on the bench and learn for a year while they improve the supporting cast around him. The most important thing is that they get a stud signal caller in the fold. If for some reason the Lions don't select Stafford here it'll be a monumental mistake.
It’s widely believed that had the Miami Dolphins not selected Jake Long with the #1 overall pick last year the Rams were poised to grab him #2. With Orlando Pace no longer in the picture left tackle is even more of a need this time around and St. Louis will most likely decide between Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe. On one hand the Rams may feel more comfortable with Monroe, who hails from the same Virginia program they selected Chris Long out of a year ago, but ultimately Smith’s upside gives him the slight edge.
A great athlete and former tight end who actually had 6 receptions for 70 yards (11.7 avg.) and 1 touchdown as a redshirt freshman in 2005, Smith is still somewhat raw but he has a world of potential and also possesses the top-notch work ethic and intangibles to maximize it. That is a great combination. Aaron Curry will also receive some consideration here and Michael Crabtree could be in the mix as a replacement for Torry Holt but by all accounts the Rams are leaning heavily towards selecting an offensive tackle. The only question is which one.
New general manager Scott Pioli showed once again why he is one of the best in the business by trading for Matt Cassel so now that their issues at quarterback are solved Kansas City is free to address another position in round one. This may not be a flashy choice but Pioli come over from New England and they almost always emphasized substance over style. Even with the addition of Mike Vrabel the Chiefs still need at least one more linebacker and Aaron Curry is as good as they come. Almost everyone seems to agree that Curry is one of the best prospects available in this draft and it’s pretty rare to see such a uniform consensus on a player.
Also, when Pioli was in New England the Patriots always placed a high value on versatility and Curry’s ability to play outside or inside in either a 4-3 or 3-4 scheme should only add to his allure. Think of Curry as the Chiefs very own Jerod Mayo. After setting the NFL’s all-time record for fewest sacks in a season last year the Chiefs would be remiss to not at least consider a pass rusher like Brian Orakpo and to a lesser degree Michael Crabtree, Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe might draw some interest as well. However, at this point it sure looks like the stars are aligning and Curry will land in Kansas City.
For the longest time it looked as though the Seahawks and Michael Crabtree were a match made in NFL Draft Heaven but the signing of T.J. Houshmandzadeh to a five-year, $40 million contract put an end to all of that. Now Seattle is a real wild card and while nobody really knows what direction they will go offensive tackle seems to be the best bet. Barring something unforeseen one of the top two offensive tackles should still be available and with Walter Jones
now 35-years-old and coming off microfracture knee surgery it may be time to secure their future at left tackle. Virginia is quickly developing a reputation as a left tackle factory and Eugene Monroe will attempt to follow in the footsteps of former Cavs D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Branden Albert. Monroe isn’t flashy but while he may not have as much upside as some of the other top blockers in this draft he has a high floor and that can be a good thing when you're talking about giving a guy $30 million in guaranteed money. Monroe is just a solid, all-around left tackle and anyone who questions his talent should remember that it was his play that kept Albert inside at guard in college. The other main possibility here may be B.J. Raji and not only could the Seahawks use an impact player in the middle of their defense but the Seattle organization has also shown a tendency to invest major free agent and draft resources on defensive linemen over the years. Could quarterback be a darkhorse ???
Unless their prayers get answered the Browns won’t have a shot at tabbing Aaron Curry to address their need at linebacker so they have to resort to Plan B. Last season the Browns got a grand total of 8.0 sacks from their outside linebackers (just 5.0 from the starters) so it’s obvious they need to bring in a pass rusher. Brian Orakpo is often referred to as a “Workout Warrior” and while there is no question he is an extremely impressive physical specimen it’s not like he hasn’t been getting the job done on the field as well. In fact, as a senior he was a dominant force for the Longhorns, racking up 19.0 TFL and 11.5 Sacks en route to winning the Nagurski Trophy (nation's top defensive player), Lombardi Award (nation's top lineman) and the Hendricks Award (nation's top defensive end).
In last year’s draft new Browns head coach Eric Mangini selected Vernon Gholston 6th overall and while that didn’t work out he may be inclined to try his luck again with Orakpo. Cleveland could also use some help in the secondary at both cornerback and free safety so Malcolm Jenkins could be a possibility and don’t completely rule out Chris “Beanie” Wells either. Keep an eye on the Braylon Edwards situation too because if the rumors are true and he really is on the trading block then Michael Crabtree may be an option as well.
To say that the Bengals had some offensive line issues in 2008 would be a major understatement. In fact, Cincy finished 29th in the league in rushing and 30th in sacks allowed. To make matters worse they lost starting right tackle Stacy Andrews as a free agent this offseason. Starting left tackle Levi Jones is almost 30-years-old and injuries have really begun to take their toll on his play, to the point where there has even been talk that he’ll be cut before next season. Even if second-year man Anthony Collins is able to replace him the Bengals will still need another top blocker and Andre Smith could be their man. On talent alone most agree that Smith is one of the 3-5 best players in this draft but concerns about his
height, conditioning and maturity have really turned some teams off. After his disasterous weekend at the Scouting Combine there is a chance that Smith will fall out of the Top 10 but Cincinnati has shown time and time again that they are willing to ignore those types of character red flags. The Bengals could also be intrigued with B.J. Raji, who they coached at the Senior Bowl, and putting him alongside Domata Peko would really fortify the middle of their defensive line. After finishing 30th in the league in sacks last year Cincinnati might also be in the market for a pass rusher so keep an eye on Brian Orakpo too.
There is always a surprise or two on Draft Day and this could be one of them. Most feel that Michael Crabtree is a mortal lock to be the first wide receiver chosen but as Lee Corso would say “Not so fast my friend”. The Raiders desperately need a top pass catcher and even though Javon Walker will be brought back next year he was a monumental disappointment in 2008 and Johnnie Lee Higgins actually led the team in catches by a wideout with a whopping 22. However, while most have Crabtree rated as the best receiver in this draft Al Davis may be one of the few who does not. Above all else Davis loves speed and not only is that Crabtree’s greatest weakness but we won’t even have a hard forty time
on him before the draft since he’ll be unable to work out due to a foot injury. On the other hand Jeremy Maclin is a true blazer with legit 4.3 speed and is also the best return man in this draft. Do you think it’s possible that Maclin will remind Mr. Davis of one of his all-time favorite Raiders, Tim Brown? Oakland could also use a top offensive tackle or a pass rusher such as Brian Orakpo, Everette Brown or Aaron Maybin but they have to give JaMarcus Russell some weapons to throw to and they might have their choice of wideouts. Don’t be surprised if they defy conventional wisdom and go with Maclin over Crabtree.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: MICHAEL CRABTREE, WR, TEXAS TECH
The Jaguars haven’t had a lot of luck with first round wideouts but that shouldn’t stop them from getting back on the horse. In terms of value the Jags would be very fortunate to find Crabtree still on the board since there are some who feel he is the best player in this entire draft. With that said it wouldn’t be a total surprise if he fell into Jacksonville’s lap considering the needs of teams selecting ahead of them along with the concerns about his speed and health. Matt Jones started to show some signs of life last year but he is really the only legitimate weapon they have at receiver and none of their returning pass catchers caught more than two touchdowns in 2008. Michael Crabtree
averaged 1.6 touchdowns per game during his college career. The Jags still haven’t adequately replaced Marcus Stroud so B.J. Raji could be an intriguing option at defensive tackle alongside John Henderson. Even though they signed Tra Thomas as a free agent he is going to be 35-years-old next season so they may still want to bring in a left tackle of the future. Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe will almost assuredly be gone but they could reach for Michael Oher, who they coached at the Senior Bowl, and play him at guard until it’s time to replace Thomas.
GREEN BAY PACKERS: EVERETTE BROWN, OLB, FLORIDA ST.
The Packers are making the radical conversion to a 3-4 defense this year and it appears as though they will use this pick to acquire a piece to aid in that transition. Even before the scheme change was announced it was obvious that Green Bay needed another pass rusher since they ranked in the bottom 25% of the league in sacks last season. Aaron Kampman will be moved to outside linebacker but they still need somebody opposite him and there should be some good options available here. Whether or not Brian Orakpo will be on the board is debatable but at the very least they should have a crack at both Everette Brown and Aaron Maybin.
The Cheeseheads didn’t have much luck the last time they selected a Seminole pass rusher in the Top 10 (uber-bust Jamal Reynolds) but as they say “If at first you don’t succeed try, try again”. Even though Brown played defensive end in college most feel he is best suited to be a 3-4 outside linebacker in the pros but while there may be some question as to what position he will play there is no doubt about his ability to get after the quarterback. Even though he came out as a junior and was only a full-time starter for one season Brown still managed to accumulate 46.5 TFL and 23.0 Sacks during his college career. Green Bay could also consider Tyson Jackson, who is a prototypical five-technique, Malcolm Jenkins or perhaps even B.J. Raji if they don’t feel Ryan Pickett is capable of being a 3-4 nose tackle. Don’t rule out a trade down either because Ted Thompson loves to stockpile draft picks and there could be a few teams interested in moving ahead of San Francisco to try and steal away Mark Sanchez.
Even though Shaun Hill has shown some flashes the past couple of years the jury is still very much out on whether he can be a championship quarterback in the NFL and it may be telling that Niners head coach Mike Singletary has refused to commit to him. Maybe San Francisco could get by with Hill and maybe they can’t but if Mark Sanchez is still on the board at #10 it would probably be a moot point. A local kid with the elite intangibles that Singletary covets,
Sanchez has all the tools to be a great quarterback in the NFL and he is the type of guy you can build a team around both on as well as off the field. Mark Sanchez may have been born to be the face of this franchise. Sanchez only started 16 games in college, which is definitely a concern, but had he gone back to USC for another year he might have been the #1 overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft. The 49’ers desperately need a right tackle after leading the league in sacks allowed last year and they could use a pass rusher as well but if Sanchez is still available all bets are off and everything else will have to wait.
Only four teams recorded fewer sacks than the Buffalo Bills in 2008 so look for them to make finding a pass rusher a top priority on Draft Day. It wasn’t long ago that Aaron Schobel was considered to be one of the best defensive ends in the league but after averaging 10 sacks a year his first six seasons he has only registered 7.5 combined the last two years. And the situation is even more dire opposite him!
Aaron Maybin opted to enter the draft after a redshirt sophomore season in which he emerged as one of the premier pass rushers in the nation and racked up 20.0 TFL and 12.0 Sacks.. Physically Maybin probably isn’t ready for the rigors of the NFL but he is a great athlete with outstanding quickness and still has a ton of upside. It’s still not clear whether Maybin will be a 4-3 defensive end or a 3-4 outside linebacker in the pros but the Bills run a defensive scheme similar to that of the Colts and Indy has done all right with a couple of undersized ends named Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. Maybin might require a year or two of development but in the meantime he could excel as a situational pass rusher. Buffalo also needs a tight end but this is probably too high for Brandon Pettigrew and since that is one of the strongest positions in this draft they should be able to get a good one who can start for them in the second or third round.
New defensive coordinator Mike Nolan plans to implement his trademark 3-4 scheme in Denver but at this point they don’t have the true nose tackle that is essential to running it effectively. After his dominating performance at the Senior Bowl there is definitely a chance B.J. Raji will come off the board in the Top 5-10 overall but it wouldn’t be a huge upset if he didn’t either. With that said it’s hard to image him falling any further than this. While Raji is certainly capable of excelling in a 4-3 defense
most seem to feel his best fit will be as a 3-4 space-eater, where he can use his squatty 6-1, 334 pound frame to take on and occupy blockers. If Raji is gone the Broncos still have plenty of other defensive needs they can address here, including defensive end (Tyson Jackson), inside linebacker (Rey Maualuga) and outside linebacker (Brian Orakpo / Everette Brown / Aaron Maybin). One way or another look for the Broncos to go defense early and often in this draft and they could very well use every single one of their choices on that side of the ball. Yes, their defense is that bad.
The Redskins addressed one defensive line need with the signing of Albert Haynesworth but they created another by releasing Jason Taylor. Not that the 34-year-old Taylor wouldn’t have had to be replaced in the near future anyway… However, there is now a big hole opposite Andre Carter and while the common perception is that Tyson Jackson is a five-technique in a 3-4 scheme he could also excel at left defensive end in a 4-3. In fact, the 6-4, 296 pound Jackson would serve as a nice compliment to Carter, who is more of an undersized pass rusher, and could even kick inside to tackle in passing situations.
If available Brian Orakpo, Everette Brown and Aaron Maybin would all be possibilities here as well. After cutting ties with Marcus Washington the Redskins also need an outside linebacker so watch out for Brian Cushing, who would be an ideal fit for them on the strongside. The Skins have some issues along their offensive line as well, especially outside where Chris Samuels is almost 32-years-old and right tackle is a mess, so they could target Michael Oher. This may also be a worst-case scenario for Andre Smith if he begins to slide a bit.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: MALCOLM JENKINS, CB-S, OHIO ST.
If nothing else you have to give the Saints an “A” for effort when it comes to their secondary. However, despite investing major free agent dollars and a number of premium draft picks on cornerbacks and safeties in recent years New Orleans pass coverage really hasn’t gotten much better. In fact, they ranked in the bottom third of the league in that category once again in 2008. It looks as though the Saints found a keeper in Tracy Porter
last year but they need some more help and would be extremely fortunate to find Malcolm Jenkins still on the board. The top defensive back prospect in this draft, Jenkins played cornerback in college but there are some who feel he will have to move to free safety in the NFL due to his lack of ideal timed speed. That shouldn’t be an issue for New Orleans though because they have issues at both spots! If Jenkins is gone the Saints could turn their attention to Vontae Davis or perhaps opt for a upgrade over Scott Fujita / Scott Shanle at outside linebacker.
After addressing their #1 need by signing free agent defensive end Antonio Smith the Texans are now free to look in another direction with this pick. New defensive coordinator Frank Bush both played linebacker and coached the position in the NFL so the team might want to provide him with a protégé’ to groom. Sure Zach Diles was playing pretty well last year before getting injured but it’s not like he’s a Pro Bowler and on the other side there is no guarantee that last year’s fourth round pick Xavier Adibi will be able to replace cap casualty Morlon Greenwood.
Brian Cushing is a very good all-around ‘backer with a sculpted physique and as long as he can continue to stay healthy he'd certainly be an upgrade over what they currently have at the position. Houston could also look to bring in another playmaker at wide receiver or a defensive back and don’t rule out another pass rusher either. Some feel Chris “Beanie” Wells will be in the mix here as well but even though he would be a perfect compliment to Steve Slaton and give the Texans a potent “Thunder & Lighting” attack it doesn’t sound like they plan to use an early round pick on a running back.
Lately it’s been difficult to predict what the Chargers will do in round one because they really don’t have many glaring holes. In fact, you can make the case that top to bottom no team in the league is as well stocked as San Diego. With that said no team is perfect and there are definitely some areas where the Chargers could stand to improve. Inside linebacker is a perfect example because even though they have a bunch of solid players there they lack a true impact performer. Rey Maualuga
is big, physical and plays the game with a nasty demeanor and he would be an ideal fit in San Diego’s scheme. Perhaps he could even follow in the footsteps of another former Trojan who found success with the Chargers organization by the name of Junior Seau. After losing Igor Olshansky as a free agent San Diego could be in the market for a defensive end and Tyson Jackson would make a lot of sense. Also, if LaDainian Tomlinson is sent packing they could use this pick on a running back such as Chris “Beanie” Wells or Knowshon Moreno to team up with the 5-6, 181 pound Darren Sproles.
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