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Dick Morris Maps 2008

Political analyst extraordinaire DICK MORRIS plots out the critical states that may determine whether John McCain or Barack Obama becomes the next president. As we near the wire, it could be an Obama landslide or a finish that's too close to call.

McCain's Numbers

82

 

votes for McCain

+ 51

 

leaning McCain

133

 

McCain

Obama's Numbers

291

 

votes for Obama

+ 64

 

leaning Obama

355

 

Obama

50 'tossup'
electoral votes.

270 total electoral votes needed to win.

Dick Morris' Analysis of the Map

The past week has been a roller-coaster ride, with Obama surging and McCain falling at the beginning of the week, only to see McCain rebound during the weekend. And the roller coaster ends up exactly where it started on Oct. 20: with Obama 5 points ahead. Realclearpolitics.com Web site awards Obama 7 point lead, but the three major daily tracking polls — Zogby, Rasmussen, and Gallup — all have Obama's lead down to 5.

Zogby had Obama as much as 12 ahead late last week, before McCain closed the gap to 5. Rasmussen had the Democrat up by 8, while Gallup said Obama was 6 ahead. Both of those polls now have Obama's margin down to 5 points.

 

So the electoral map is unchanged from last week. We still see normally Republican states such as Louisiana, Arizona, Tennessee, West Virginia, and North Carolina as tossups; and some Republican states such as Virginia, Missouri, Arkansas, and Colorado as leaning to Obama. Also, Ohio and Florida remain in Obama's column.

But this election is in flux. It is now well within the realm of possibility that it will turn either into an Obama landslide, or a razor-thin margin going either way.

 

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