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Similarity Scores

Similarity scores are not my concept. Bill James introduced them nearly 15 years ago, and I lifted his methodology from his book The Politics of Glory (p. 86-106). To compare one player to another, start at 1000 points and then you subtract points based on the statistical differences of each player.

Batters

One point for each difference of 20 games played.
One point for each difference of 75 at bats.
One point for each difference of 10 runs scored.
One point for each difference of 15 hits.
One point for each difference of 5 doubles.
One point for each difference of 4 triples.
One point for each difference of 2 home runs.
One point for each difference of 10 RBI.
One point for each difference of 25 walks.
One point for each difference of 150 strikeouts.
One point for each difference of 20 stolen bases.
One point for each difference of .001 in batting average.
One point for each difference of .002 in slugging percentage.

To this there is a positional adjustment. Each position has a value, and you subtract the difference between the two players position. James just uses primary position, but I computed an average position for players who had more than one primary position. (See Ernie Banks)

240 - Catcher
168 - Shortstop
132 - Second Base
84 - Third Base
48 - Outfield (James distinguishes, but I don't have that data incorporated at the moment)
12 - First Base
0 - DH

Pitchers

Start with a thousand and then subtract the following deductions.

One point for each difference of 1 win.
One point for each difference of 2 losses.
One point for each difference of .002 in winning percentage (max 100 points).
One point for each difference of .02 in ERA (max 100 points).
One point for each difference of 10 games pitched.
One point for each difference of 20 starts.
One point for each difference of 20 complete games.
One point for each difference of 50 innings pitched.
One point for each difference of 50 hits allowed.
One point for each difference of 30 strikeouts.
One point for each difference of 10 walks.
One point for each difference of 5 shutouts.
One point for each difference of 3 saves.

If they throw with a different hand and are starters subtract 10, relievers 25. For relievers you half the winning percentage penalty and the winning percentage penalty can up to 1.5 times the wins and losses penalty. Relievers are defined as more relief appearances than starts and less than 4.00 innings per appearance.

I plugged all this into my database, to create the lists you see on the player pages. Note that a player must have 100 innings pitched or 300 at bats before being considered and to be truly accurate you need to look at whole careers, but it is fun to speculate all the same.

Age Based Similarity Scores

These values are computed in the exact same manner as the above manner. However, instead of comparing an active player's career to the entire career of retired players, we only compare the active player's career to the retired player's career when they were the same age as the active player. This gives more interesting lists for the active players because we get an idea of what path the player is taking.

This doesn't mean that Vladimir Guerrero was as valuable as Willie Mays over his first three seasons - just that their numbers are similar. The league's offensive levels and defensive value affect those measurements.

Age Path Similar Players

I've then gone through and for each season a player played computed who was the most similar player at that point in his career. I only have room to show the most similar player, but it can show players who peaked at early or late ages. Ruben Sierra comes to mind.

Stats updated through October 30, 2008.

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