Open Mind

Open Thread #12

April 2, 2009 · 84 Comments

Open thread #11 is getting very big, so here’s a new one for faster loading.

→ 84 CommentsCategories: Global Warming

Open Thread #11

March 7, 2009 · 552 Comments

Here’s a new open thread.

Also a notice: I’ve been so intensely busy lately I haven’t had much time for the blog. This condition will continue for at least another week (I hope, not much longer than that), at which time I intend to resume blogging on a regular basis. In the meantime, carry on with discussion; I’ll try to be diligent moderating comments.

→ 552 CommentsCategories: Global Warming

Ellensburg

February 21, 2009 · 71 Comments

A RealClimate reader recently posted this comment:


It is such a simple thing. Go to the NOAA website and download the last 50 years of temperature data from your small local airports. Here in Ellensburg, our winters traditionally hit 20 below zero (8 in 10 years). We barely hit zero this winter. And we have never been below -10 in the last 12 years. The data is there and NONE of you are looking at it! NOT A DAMN ONE OF YOU! Note also that here in Ellensburg at the Bowers Air Field, our data shows one in ten winters to 30 below zero. This since records began in the 30’s. It is so phucking blatant and none of you are looking at it. You people have your head stuck so far in your books you cannot see the real world around you. WE ALREADY HAVE A 20 PLUS DEGREE TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN ELLENSBURG, WASHINGTON. The sumnmer data is the same. For fourty years since the 30’s our highs were in the 80’s and rarely in the 90’s. Last summer, as in the previous ten summers, we have hit over 110! I do not know what else to tell you idiots. The data is right there in front of youand you so called ‘professionals’ have entirely lost all credability for not doing your SIMPLE homework. God forbid.

It elicited these responses from the moderators:

<blockquote
[Response: Please calm down. You’ll find dispassionate analysis far more persuasive here. - gavin]

[Response: 14. Try not to fall into the same trap as many denialists, thinking that things are “obvious” based on this or that set of limited observations. Attribution is very much more a sophisticated and comprehensive business.-Jim]

Indeed it is! And trends are not exactly trivial, either.

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The Audacity of Hope

February 14, 2009 · 192 Comments

Yesterday I looked for something to watch on TV. After rejecting the soap operas and talk-TV, I settled on what looked like a crime drama. In the opening scene, three kids (two boys and a girl, in their early teens) are on a playground when they’re accosted by three other kids. The victims try to walk away, but the thugs pursue them, insult them, then demand the girl give up her cell phone. She pleads, “Please, I don’t want to lose it.” The psycho thug replies, “What’d you call me? Loser?”

Then he takes out a gun. After threatening them while talking trash, he shoots the girl. Then he makes the two boys get on their knees, and shoots them in the head.

It was in fact some kind of crime drama. I didn’t watch because I was sickened by the opening. Who the hell — who in his right mind, with even the slightest shred of decency — would think that this, on TV for all to see (including kids), is entertainment? Maybe you can tell, I’m upset about it.

My wife is also upset, for a different reason. She enjoys online gaming in a virtual world called “Second Life.” It enables people to create characters and interact in numerous ways, mostly good clean (and sometimes very bawdy) fun. But the one thing she doesn’t like is something called “Gor.” It’s fantasy slave ownership and abuse. Some enjoy pretending to be the master, some enjoy pretending to be the slave. Yesterday she encountered a shop which sells “skins” (textures and colors for one’s character), but this shop featured skins which show bruises, lacerations, wounds, so that people can enhace their fantasies of being physically abused by their “owners.”

This too is thought by some to be “entertainment.”

I understand the thrill of danger, the excitement that accompanies the forbidden. I understand indulging one’s reptilian brain at the expense of reason. But I had hoped that human beings were different from beasts, in that we understood that the thrill of the senses was inferior and the power of spirit and intellect was superior. That we could rise above our animal ancestry, forbear that which hot blood craves in favor of higher pursuits; that we could not just strive for, but actually achieve, nobility. I wonder.

Then I get a comment like this: “While we are all aguing about whether or not, the reality is you are not going to stop this from ocuring! You are all talkers of the great time waste.

This too makes me wonder. Is the human race so blind? Is there no hope? Do we not even deserve to be saved from ourselves?

My spirit despairs at such resignation. And the fact that I’ve recently been assaulted by bad TV portraying the worst kind of cruelty as a prelude to entertainment, that my wife has witnessed the willingness of people, for the sake of a cheap thrill, to invite the kind of abuse that should never be tolerated, doesn’t help.

But I have a message for every nay-sayer and advocate of “there’s nothing we can do about it.” I refuse to resign. I do not accept the inevitability of failure. But the way I feel right now, it takes a lot of audacity to be hopeful.

I accept that global warming is going to be a lot of pain for a lot of people. But I will allow my intellect to overrule my anger because it knows that what we do does make a difference. The more we change for the better, the better the future will be. Although the future is not likely to be good, there’s no excuse for not doing what we can to prevent its being worse.

If you don’t want to do anything about global warming … get the hell out of the way of those of us who do.

→ 192 CommentsCategories: Global Warming

Australia 5+1

February 10, 2009 · 154 Comments

I recently posted about the heat wave in southern Australia. I emphasized that what’s really important is not the short-term events but the long-term trend, and showed that Melbourne, in addition to experience a brutally hot short-term event, also showed a long-term warming trend both in its mean and max temperatures. The data for Melbourne go back to 1855, and the strong increase in temperature was a recent phenomenon (especially for max temperature).

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→ 154 CommentsCategories: Global Warming
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Entropy

February 10, 2009 · 22 Comments

As King of the mythical land of Gilder, you’re invited to all the best royal weddings. You don’t much care for that sort of thing, but you’ve just received an invitation to celebrate the nuptuals of Prince Humperdink and Princess Buttercup in the neighboring (and bitter rival) country of Florin. Not to go, or even to arrive late, would be taken as an affront, and wars have started on less provocation, so in the interest of peace you decide you must attend.

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→ 22 CommentsCategories: mathematics
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Fire Down Below

February 8, 2009 · 95 Comments

Since it’s winter, the blogosphere has been assaulted with endless reports of “It was so cold last night!” and “The snowfall has been massive” and “5th-coldest winter in Michigan ever!” These are often followed by “Global warming is bull” and “Al Gore is a big fat liar.”

Such posts reveal ignorance about what global warming is: it’s about the long-term trend, not the short-term events. They also reveal the narrowest possible perspective (one might even say, no perspective at all) because your own backyard is not the globe. I actually commented on one such post (about the x-th coldest winter in location y) by pointing out that at the very moment of the post, southern Australia was sweltering through its worst heat wave ever. Despite the comment being nothing more than a matter-of-fact report on actual facts, the blogger decided not to let it appear. I guess a more global perspective didn’t fit into his world-view.

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More on Glacier Mass Balance

February 6, 2009 · 20 Comments

I’ve taken a brief look at more of the data provided by Mauri Pelto, for the average mass balance of a larger number of glaciers than included in the representative sample of 30 glaciers; this is a “quickie” report on what it shows.

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Glacier Mass Balance

February 3, 2009 · 53 Comments

Mauri Pelto was kind enough to provide a link to some data shown in a recent RealClimate post about glacier mass balance. The upshot of that post is that the scientific community is finally getting a good database of glacier mass balance measurements. Although only a small fraction of glaciers are measured, there are enough of them, and their geographic distribution is sufficient, to get a picture of the changes in glaciers worldwide. And that picture is quite clear.

Keep reading →

→ 53 CommentsCategories: Global Warming
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Open Thread #10

January 31, 2009 · 395 Comments

As was pointed out, some threads are getting prohibitively long. So here’s an open thread to continue discussion.

→ 395 CommentsCategories: Global Warming