Denver faces another must win game against a team with a losing record.  The Los Angeles Clippers are basically healthy for practically the first time all season.  However, scoring machine Zach Randolph will miss the game tonight while he is attending his funeral of his father back in Indiana.  

The Nuggets have traditionally had a hard time handling Chris Kaman.  Nene is the only Nugget who has the girth to keep him from getting great post up position and off the boards.  Eric Gordon is already an offensive force.  I do not recommend leaving him to help, but if they have to they better rotate back quickly.  Baron Davis has the talent to dominate games, but he is either to banged up or not interested enough to do so lately.  The other Clipper who likes to play against the Nuggets is Al Thornton.  He posted one of his three 30 point games of the season and his only double digit rebounding game against Denver in the second game of the season.  The last time Thornton played in Denver he threw down a 33 and 12 on the Nuggets.

Kenyon Martin has been listed as 50/50 to play tonight, but I sure wish they would list him as 0/100 until they know his back is 100%.  The silver lining is we have another game to enjoy the contributions of Renaldo Balkman.

The biggest plotline though is Marcus Camby’s return to Denver.  To his credit he has continued his charitable work here.  As far as his play on the court he is still putting up similar numbers to what he earned as a Nugget.  In the handful of Clipper games I have watched this season where Camby has played he seems to be working harder on defending the pick and roll.  I have ragged on Camby’s post defense for a long, long time so Nene had better take it to him in the post.  

Denver Nuggets Game Notes

Previous Matchups:  Game 2 - Den 113 LAC 103 OT | Game 15 - Den 106 LAC 105

Featured Blogs:  ClipperBlog | Clips Nation

I cannot believe I did not notice this sooner, but it just donned on me that I did not remember seeing Dahntay Jones play at all against the Thunder last night.  A quick glance at the box score shows that Jones had the DNP Coach’s Decision.

Could it be that George Karl has decided to give Jones’ minutes to Renaldo Balkman? 

With Kenyon Martin out and Anthony Carter returning to the rotation we probably cannot use last night’s game as a template for how minutes will be handed out for the remainder of the season.  Also, Jones started the game before against the Rockets because he was a better matchup against the Rockets’ pair of swingmen Ron Artest and Shane Battier.

A quick glance at the Player Efficiency Ratings shows that the Nuggets bench is full of a bunch of below average players.  Professor Hollinger sets the average PER rating to 15 and Anthony Carter (10.94), Linas Kleiza (13.10) and J.R. Smith (14.64) are all below average players.  Dahntay Jones’ 9.07 PER is the worst out of the Nuggets’ rotation players.  (To be fair, PER does not rate defensive ability outside of blocks and steals and as a result it probably sells players like Jones a little short.)

Renaldo Balkman’s PER is 17.55.

The question I have been asking myself lately is how much better would the Nuggets be if Balkman was getting more of Kleiza’s minutes.  The question I should have been asking is how much better would the Nuggets be if Balkman was getting Jones’ minutes.  I am not saying play Balkman 17 minutes a night at shooting guard, but if we allow Chauncey Billups, J.R. Smith and Anthony Carter to play the 96 minutes available between the two guard spots, have Kleiza back up Melo for 12 to 15 minutes a night, have Chris Andersen back up Nene for 18 to 22 minutes a game and then give Balkman another 18 to 22 minutes behind Kenyon that is a pretty stout rotation.  On some nights Balkman can also help fill in at shooting guard depending on matchups. 

As loyal reader Nuggets4 pointed out in the comments from the game recap Karl is still making references that the reason Balkman does not play more is because of his “spotty defense” and lack of a jump shot.  The only time I saw Renaldo get out of position last night was when his man made a relatively slow cut to the rim and it appeared that Renaldo decided to pass him off to the weak side low defender while he stayed at the strong side elbow so that he could run out at a potential three point shooter.  The result was Balkman’s man was open under the hoop and scored an easy layup, but at least there seemed to be some semblance of a team defense thought process behind his decision even if it was a bad one. 

Balkman does not have a good jumper, but he knows it and rarely takes it.  Kenyon Martin does not have a good jumper, but he chucks it up constantly.  I love the way Balkman plays offense.  He is always around the rim and has a knack for finding cracks in the opposition’s interior defense.  I understand why Karl wishes Balkman could shoot a midrange jumper.  Good outside shooting can open up the middle.  Do not discount what Balkman does do though.  His ability to find open areas and score in the paint breaks the defense down from its core, which is much more devastating.  Balkman’s true shooting percentage (adjusting shooting percentage to include threes and free throws) is third on the Nuggets at 59.2% behind Nene’s 63.9% (and falling) and Birdman’s 60.6%.

I will give Dahntay Jones credit.  He has never been thought of as a defensive stopper at any point in his career, but he realized that was the role he would need to play to earn minutes with the Nuggets and he has worked hard to develop that aspect of his game.  While he has had some great games as a one on one defender, he is not a night in and night out defensive stalwart plus he is not a high quality team defender.  However, if Balkman can get 20 plus minutes a night and Jones gets more DNP Coach’s Decisions I think the Nuggets would reap some pretty good benefits.

Getting in touch with our inner stat geek

Kevin Pelton over at Basketball Prospectus has been cranking out some great stuff as of late.  He came up with a formula to determine what teams are the most inconsistent as far as beating the teams they should be beating by as many points as they should beat them by.  Using adjusted expected scoring differentials Denver is considered the third least consistent team in the NBA.  Confused?  Just read it.  I promise it will help having a smart person explain it instead of having me try to do it.

Kevin has also taken a look at how a team’s average age impacts their defensive abilities using the Portland Trailblazers as the inspiration.

5280 article on George Karl

I am pretty sure I am the last Nuggets related blog to post a link to this piece on Karl, but if you have not read it yet, I highly encourage you to check it out.  Also head on over to Denver Stiffs as Andrew has an interview with the author Robert Sanchez.

NBA players like Chauncey

Sports Illustrated has conducted a poll with NBA players on what point guard they would pay to see.  Look who shows up tied for third.

A little humor to close the day

I never saw that Tokyo Drift movie, but I probably would have if there were scenes like that in it.

Box Score | Highlights

It sure was nice to beat the Oklahoma City Thunder in a game that did not require a last second shot for once.  Denver was in control from start to finish, but before we get too carried away with an easy win against a less than stellar squad, let’s take a look at how Denver did in the areas we highlighted earlier this afternoon.

The Nuggets definitely cranked up the running game.  Led by the return of Anthony Carter and the aggressiveness of Linas Kleiza and Renaldo Balkman Denver posted 25 fast break points.  That is the most they have scored in a single game since February 6 in Washington, which was 16 games ago, when they accumulated 27.

The pace factor was a relatively slow 90.7, but that is most likely due to the number of offensive rebounds, the two teams combined to nab 33 offensive boards and offensive rebounds prolong possessions.  We can tell from the fast break points, and from simply watching the game itself that both teams ran early and often.

The Nuggets addressed the issue of declining assist totals by playing unselfishly and earning good shots.  18 of the Nuggets 22 first half baskets were assisted.  For the game they finished with 33 assists on 42 makes and 22 of those 33 assists were on shots converted at the rim.  The movement and passing, especially in the first half, was outstanding.  One of my frustrations lately with Chauncey Billups was that he rarely makes imaginative passes.  It has been weeks since I saw him throw a pass that took me by surprise.  He even made some nice passes to the roller off the pick and roll.  Tonight was as good of a passing game as Denver has put together in a long time.

The other primary pitfall on offense was the fact the Nuggets had been shooting blanks.  Against the Thunder they shot 50% for the game and that was made possible by the fact they shot 64% at the rim.  They also shot 50% between fifteen feet and the charge circle.  As I pointed out earlier today that range is typically the least accurate of the four areas we analyzed (layups, charge circle to fifteen feet, fifteen feet to the three point line and behind the arc).  The key to shooting that well was the fact that the shots they took from that range were mostly wide open looks.  As we moved further away from the rim their shooting on long twos and threes was not spectacular.  The Nuggets shot 35.7% on both long twos and threes, but that beat their pathetic percentages from the previous ten games. 

Another positive sign was 47% of Denver’s shots were layups.  That is up from their season average of 44.5%.  Denver was incredibly aggressive in the first half as 56.8% of their shots attempted were layups.  Part of the reason for that increase I believe is the Thunder lack a shot blocking presence in the lane and the Nuggets felt comfortable attacking the rim (Tyson Chandler anyone?).

While the Nuggets made progress on offense there is less of a reason to be excited about their defense.  The two areas I sited where Denver has fallen off were in committing shooting fouls and defending the three.  Denver sent the Thunder to the line 32 times where they amazingly made 30 of them.  Those 32 free throws were slightly higher than the Nuggets had been allowing during their 11 game slump and Oklahoma City attempted one more free throw than Denver.   

The Nuggets would appear to have defended the three pretty well as Oklahoma City made only 3 of 13 attempts.  A closer look reveals the Nuggets contested only four of the Thunder’s 13 attempts from behind the arc.  They did miss all four of those attempts and only made three of the nine open attempts, but that ratio of open shots to contested ones was not good a better shooting team will make a much higher percentage of their open threes.

As I mentioned this afternoon the real issue was with the Nuggets’ poor rotations and overall team defense.  The Thunder do not have any deadly three point shooters with Kevin Durant out of action and because of that when they played drive and kick the recipient of the pass either took a midrange jumper or drove.  Both of those plays are easier to defend than a three point attempt because there is not as much ground to cover.  The few times the Nuggets were required to rotate they did not do a particularly good job.

Overall Nuggets fans should just be happy with a win in which the Nuggets were not seriously threatened.  On the other hand there were some red flags.  Aside from the tendency to foul and their inability to consistently challenge Oklahoma City’s three point attempts the Nuggets yet again struggled to hold the lead.  Denver built up a 42-23 second quarter lead and saw the Thunder gnaw it down to five in roughly six minutes.  The key was another problem we have seen in the past and that was the Nuggets inability to defend the fast break.  Earl Watson continually drove through the Nuggets sluggish transition defense as he was allowed to drive as deep in the lane as he pleased.  The one time Anthony Carter tried to stop him about 16 feet from the rim AC never even moved his feet and was called for a tripping foul.  It was not just Carter though all of the Nuggets’ guards were guilty.  J.R. was the worst offender and Chauncey was only slightly better as he at least made Watson change directions before making a layup. 

The Nuggets built up another 19 point lead in the fourth quarter, but once again allowed the Thunder to whittle it down to nine with over three minutes left in the fourth quarter.  Their inability to put the game completely out of reach is unsettling. 

The Nuggets have four more games against subpar teams to get these kinks worked out.  Both the Jazz and Trail Blazers lost tonight and it is tempting to get excited about the Nuggets’ prospects to win the division again.  Before I anoint the Nuggets favorites again they will have to prove to me that they have addressed all of the problems we have dealt with today. 

Additional Game 66 Nuggets

• Fourteen of the Nuggets first 16 shots were layups or dunks.  You cannot complain about that.
• Anthony Carter sure showed what he can do when he is on his game.  He did a great job fueling the running game as he racked up a season high 12 assists.  He made great decisions with the ball and he has not passed ahead to whoever was streaking up the floor that well since last season.  I vote for AC only playing every fifth game.
• Linas Kleiza did a great job running the floor and only took two threes.  He actually displayed a midrange game and was able to get to the line nine times.  The last time he shot more than seven free throws was mid November.  I can deal with the Kleiza we saw tonight even though he did miss a couple of layups.
• I need more Renaldo Balkman like Christopher Walken needs more cowbell.  As I wrote in the game thread how can any coach watch him play and not think to himself, “I have to get this guy on the floor for 20 to 24 minutes a game.”?  One of the concerns is his apparent lack of offense, but he creates offense by hitting the offensive glass, running the floor and finding open space in the defense.
• As promising as the Nuggets play on offense was I think we all suspect the Nuggets will forget how much easier it is to score when they play unselfishly, move the ball and move without the ball the way they did tonight.  As soon as they face a tougher foe it will be back to superhero basketball.  Stand back, I’ll handl this!

Mindboggling Game Stats

Pace Factor:  90.7 – Slow for a game in Denver, but understandable due to the high offensive rebound rate.

Defensive Efficiency:  109.2 – Not as strong a performance as we hoped for, but they did hold the Thunder to 40.2% shooting.  However, if Durant had played this number would obviously have been much higher.

Offensive Efficiency:  123.5 – Very good offensive performance, but we already knew that.

Featured Blog:  Daily Thunder

Even without Kevin Durant the Thudner are rolling.  Jeff Green is back and Russell Westbrook, Thabo Sefolosha and Nenad Krstic are all playing well.  Even Kyle Weaver is hitting his threes.

No Kenyon tonight (as I pointed out he tweaked his back on the first play of the second half against Houston), but Anthony Carter is going to play.  

Denver Nuggets Game Notes

Featured Blogs:  Daily Thunder

Previous Matchups:  Game 34 - Den 122 OKC 120 | Game 49 - Den 114 OKC 113

Only a couple of weeks ago I would be expecting the Denver Nuggets to blow out the Kevin Durant-less Oklahoma City Thunder.  At this point I am just hoping for a victory.

Instead of a standard game preview I decided to address where exactly the Nuggets have been floundering and I will toss out a game thread later.  There has been a great deal written about the Nuggets crumbling season and the reasons behind it.  I think we can narrow the reasons for their collapse down to their play in three areas, offense, defense and the transition game.  There, that was easy.

I have broken down many of the Nuggets stats this season into games one through 54, at which point the Nuggets were 37-17, and games 55 through 65 during which the Nuggets are 3-8.  Some of the data supports some of the issues we have with the team (giving up too many open threes) and some of the data does not (taking more jump shots), but I think as a whole it paints a pretty clear picture.

Let’s start out with the transition game as it has the smallest amount of data, yet displays a clear discrepancy between the way the Nuggets started the season and the style they have been playing as of late.  The Nuggets’ pace factor through game 54 was 93.3.  Over the past eleven games they have a pace factor of 91.4 so clearly they are averaging almost two fewer possessions a game. 

The difference goes deeper than simply pace.  Their production from running has nearly flat lined.   Fast break points do not necessarily correlate to winning games, however, these numbers are quite telling.  Through the first 54 games of the season the Nuggets had an average of 17 fast break points a game to their opponents 11 which obviously converts to a six point advantage for the Nuggets in transition offense.  Over the last 11 games the Nuggets are only averaging nine fast break points a game, but their opponents, despite the games being played at a slower pace, have upped their average up to 12 fast break points per game.  The Nuggets have gone from being a plus six in fast break points to a minus three.  That is a nine point swing and it is a big reason why the Nuggets are struggling on offense.

That is not their only problem on offense.  There has been a lot of press about how their assist numbers have been dwindling.  I personally do not track team assists per game and I do not have time to plow through all that data this afternoon.  I believe it is safe to say that between the information from Benjamin Hochman  and others we can see that the Nuggets offense is getting more and more stationary and driven by isolations.

The primary problem is Denver is simply not making shots.  After shooting 47.2% through the first 54 games of the season the Nuggets have only made 43.3% of their shots over their 11 game slide.  Many of us have voiced the belief that Denver is getting jump shot happy.  That was certainly my sense from watching the games.  However, my research has shown that is not the case.

By looking at the team Hot Spot data available on NBA.com  I compared the last ten games to their season shooting stats.  (One thing to take note of is the Hot Spot data only allowed me to look at the previous ten games instead of the previous 11 games so unlike in the rest of this post this data breaks down the season into games one through 55 and 56 through 65.)  The Nuggets percentage of shots at the rim has remained exactly the same through the last ten games as it was during the first 55 games of the season.  They attempted 44.5% of their shots at the rim in games one through 55 and in games 56 through 65.  The Nuggets percentage of shots within 15 feet of the hoop has actually risen from 11.2% of all shots up through game 55 to 12.1% of their shots over the last ten games.  Shots taken between fifteen feet and the three point line have stayed almost exactly the same moving down slightly from 22.2% to 22.1%.  The percentage of shots that have come from behind the three point line actually fell from 22.2% in the first 55 games down to 21.4% in the previous ten contests.  The data shows that the Nuggets are taking slightly fewer shots from 15 feet and out and a few more from 15 feet and in during the last ten games.  One thing to take note of is the 15 feet and in range, the only zone that saw an increase in the percentage of shots taken, is by far the least efficient zone to shoot from so that is not necessarily a good thing.

Going from zone to zone the Nuggets shooting has fallen off the face of the earth.  Even though they are taking the same percentage of shots from in close they are making 4.5% fewer over the previous ten games than in the first 55 (59.3% to 54.8%).  Their shooting percentage on shots 15 feet and in has fallen by 1.8% (33.1% to 31.3%).  Their percentage on jumpers inside the three point line, but outside 15 feet has fallen 4.6% (40.4% to 35.8%) and their percentage on thee pointers has decreased by 4.4% (37.4% to 32.9%).

This team wide shooting slump has resulted in an offensive efficiency rating over the previous 11 games of 107.3.  That is down from their 110.4 rating they earned over the first 54 games.  Part of the reason for this is flat out poor shooting.  They are getting open looks and missing them.  I think there is another more frightening element involving the dropping assist totals.  Because the offense is becoming more stagnant and more isolation dependent the Nuggets are settling for tougher, better defended shots.  They are getting roughly the same shots playing one on one, but instead of using movement and crisp passing to ensure that shot is an open one, the shots are more heavily contested due to the forced offense that results from one on one play.

It is not only the offense, but the defense that is faltering.  After 54 games the Nuggets had a defensive efficiency of 106.0.  Over their 11 game slump that number has risen to 113.0!  They are giving up seven more points per 100 possessions than over the first 54 games of the season.  Denver’s field goal percentage allowed has only changed slightly from 43.9% to 44.6%.  That is not a huge increase.  In fact, it is a pretty minimal one.  That is actually a difference of less than one made shot a game.  So how is it that they are giving up so many more points per 100 possessions?

One reason is fouling.  Denver sent their opponents to the line 26.1 times per game over the first 54 games of the season.  That number has risen to 30.1 in the last 11 games.  Right there is an extra three points per game and a little more than three points per 100 possessions (due to the fact that the average game has fewer than 100 possessions).  The Nuggets shot an average of 4.4 more free throws a game than their opponents while they were winning, but that advantage has disappeared over the previous 11 games and it is entirely due to their opponents getting more trips to the line.  The Nuggets average free throw attempts per game has only dropped from 30.4 to 30.2.

The other area where the data shows the Nuggets’ are failing on defense is their three point shooting defense has gone from decent to atrocious.  Denver’s opponents made 35.6% of their three pointers in the first 54 games of the season.  That number ballooned to 39.3% in the last 11 games.  With the Nuggets’ opponents taking an average of 19.5 threes a night that difference results in an additional 0.8 threes a game which converts to 2.3 more points allowed a game.  Once again that number is accentuated even more in their defensive efficiency rating due to the fact that there are fewer than 100 possessions in their average game.  I believe the combination of what we have seen empirically and what the data is telling us is the Nuggets rotations have crumbled to the point where they are either poor or altogether nonexistent.  Strangely enough the Nuggets are actually holding their opponents to a lower shooting percentage on their two point shots allowing 46.6% in the first 54 games, but only 46.3% in the last 11.

What does all this tell us?  Well, pretty much what we already knew from watching the games.  Denver needs to get back to running on offense, working together to earn quality looks and get back to communicating and working together on defense.  The only area where we had been complaining that was proven wrong was the belief the Nuggets had been attempting more jump shots during the last 11 games than the first 54.  Even so, I think we would still like to see more layups and fewer jumpers.  

The Denver Nuggets just completed a disastrous stretch where they actually lost five games in only nine days.  I understand how physically demanding such a stretch is and how the Nuggets were short handed playing without Kenyon Martin in three of those games and Anthony Carter in four.  Those are all just excuses.  Denver has managed to play very well other times during this season while playing six games in nine days.  What matters is at a time in the year where other teams are raising their level of play (Utah, New Orleans, Portland and San Antonio all come to mind) Denver is playing as poorly as they have all season.

I have two reactions to tonight’s loss against the Houston Rockets.  First, I would argue while many fans are waiving the white flag the season is not over.  The Nuggets have now completed one of the most difficult portions of their schedule and while they are floundering they have a great opportunity to collect themselves and go on an immediate five game winning streak.  Their next five games are comprised of contests against the Thunder, Clippers and Nets at home, a road game against the Grizzlies and then they return to Denver to play the Wizards.  A five game winning streak will put them right back at 20 games over .500 where they were when this debacle first began in Chicago.  If they can rebuild some confidence and recapture the efficiency on both ends of the floor which made them such a strong team the first three and a half months of the season 52 or 53 wins is still well within reach.  With the talent on this team and with the schedule providing them with a plethora of winnable games I feel very good guaranteeing that the Nuggets will make the playoffs.

While the season is not over my second reaction following the loss to the Rockets is, well, the season is over.  With the stink bomb the Nuggets dropped on us the past couple of weeks they have almost completely destroyed any chance of earning home court advantage in the playoffs.  I have a difficult time envisioning a scenario where they catch the Spurs, Jazz or Hornets.  Plus with the loss last night they have lost the season series to the Rockets making it even more difficult to surpass them in the standings.  In order to earn home court advantage the Nuggets would have to overtake two of those four teams.  At this point almost any best case scenario we can construct leaves the Nuggets playing either the Spurs, Jazz or Hornets in the first round.  Because of that I am afraid there is little hope of Denver reaching the second round.  (The one caveat I will add is if the Trail Blazers manage to crash the party and earn a top four seed and end up matched up against Denver in the first round.  I would welcome that series no matter who has home court advantage.  However, I do not see Portland finishing that highly in the standings as a likely outcome.)

What is most alarming is the Nuggets seem to be at a complete loss as to why they are losing games.  After dropping last night’s contest to Houston Carmelo Anthony is quoted as saying, ”I can’t really pinpoint what’s going on.”  If they want to figure out why they are losing all the Nuggets need to do is throw in some game film of their home win against the Jazz or of the second half in Philadelphia and then put in the tape from last night.   The differences will be obvious and they all revolve around mental focus and the desire to do what is necessary to win.  Do not get me wrong, Denver has played very hard in the fourth quarters of both the Kings and Rockets losses, but that is not enough.  We are 65 games into the season and they do not seem to have figured that out.

You may be thinking to yourself that I am panicking and am way out of line.  Let me say this.  I do my best to stay on an even keel on this blog and remain consistent in my coverage of the team.  I try to remove emotion from the equation and give thoughtful analysis.  The season is long and it is not always easy to keep from getting too high when things are going well or too low during tough stretches such as this one.  I sat on this post for at least 12 hours since writing it trying to decide whether or not I wanted to publish it.  What it came down to is this is my honest assessment of the current situation and if it is what I truly believe, I would be cheating both myself and you all by not posting it.  After all, I proclaimed last season that the Nuggets would lose in the first round again after the fifth game of the campaign.  If I was confident that I was not jumping to conclusions at that point in the season I should fell alright arriving at the same determination in March this season.  What the Nuggets have displayed for us since the All-Star break is all the proof I need to see.

Of course I have been wrong before and I hope I am wrong now.  There is still over a fifth of the season remaining and things can change quickly.  Look where Utah was fifteen games ago and where they are now.  The same thing can happen for the Nuggets.  As I have said over and over the schedule is still set up in their favor, but they have to step up and earn wins.  Teams like Sacramento are not going to just roll over and thank Denver for blessing them with the honor of their presence.  The opportunity to claim home court advantage and win the Northwest Division title is still there as long as the Nuggets take every second of every game seriously from here on out.  I just wish I thought they had it in them.

Prove me wrong Denver, I beg you.

Box Score | Highlights

I am not here to make excuses for the Denver Nuggets.  However, knowing the Nuggets were playing their fourth game in five nights against a hot team made victory in this game a long shot.  I think many of the mistakes the Nuggets made tonight were a result of fatigue.

When the body and mind are tired they get lazy and look for shortcuts.  On defense that means laying off your man and not helping your teammates.  Offensively it means standing and watching resulting in the one or two passes and shoot style that is the bane of our existence. 

It is difficult to pick what side of the court the Nuggets lost this game on.  Nene did as good a job as any Nugget ever has on Yao by using his strength to keep him from getting position in the paint.  They gave up a few too many open looks from behind the arc and Houston scored almost at will in the second and third quarters.  However, Denver’s overall defensive numbers for the game were very strong.  Overall it was a good performance however, the subpar effort in the middle quarters cost them the game.

Offensively Denver took the second and third quarters off too.  After building up a ten point lead the Nuggets slowly stopped moving and passing.  The offense became much too stagnant.  Even though the defense could have been better had they made more than 38.1% of their shots, if they even equal the Rockets’ 42.5% they win the game. 

In the end basketball comes down to making shots.  Whether you are facing tough defense or nonexistent defense you need to knock down shots.  The Nuggets missed more layups than I care to track.  They also missed numerous open jumpers.  On one second quarter possession J.R. drove the lane and missed a right handed layup, Birdman missed the tip, but Nene was able to corral the rebound and passed it to Jason Hart.  Hart passed it to Melo on the right wing who drove in and kicked a pass out to J.R. who had no one near him in the right corner.  J.R. missed the open three, but Nene tipped the rebound to Melo who was all alone at the middle of the free throw line and he missed the wide open jumper.  You cannot fail to capitalize on chances like that.

As in the Kings game the Nuggets tried to crank up the intensity and make a late run and just like in the Kings game it was too little too late.  I have no idea why they continue to play a turn it on when it matters style after it has failed game after game since the All-Star break.  If they do not learn their lesson soon it will be too late.

The Nuggets are now a game behind Utah and Portland for the division lead.  They have a day off before Oklahoma City comes to the Pepsi Center.  The Nuggets had better get enough rest so that they can focus for an entire 48 minutes.  They cannot afford to forfeit prolonged stretches of the game to their opponent.  They cannot afford to give away another game to a sub .500 team and hold out any hope that this season will provide a different ending than any of the previous five. 

Additional Game 65 Nuggets

• Driving home from work I heard a replay of an Interview on 104.3 The Fan with Chris Dempsey from the Denver Post.  He claimed in the interview that Kenyon Martin was a good week away from playing again.  I have taken the position that Martin needs to sit out as long as necessary to ensure he is healthy for the playoffs.  I was afraid the current losing streak would provide motivation for Martin to return to early.  Lo and behold look who was in the starting lineup tonight.  Kenyon played somewhat effectively and accumulated 24:05 on the floor.  I am afraid he did come back too soon.  During the very first possession of the third quarter he was on the right side of the hoop and Luis Scola pushed him under the basket after a shot by Yao.  Kenyon jumped up and reached back over his head to try to get the rebound.  I have seen Kenyon struggle with his back enough to see his upright stance after landing was a sign his back was barking at him again.  Kenyon remained in the game another seven minutes, but one he checked out with 4:18 left in the third, he never checked back in.
• I was hoping Balkman’s performance had earned him some additional playing time, but with the return of Kenyon he saw absolutely no burn.  George Karl did manage to find over 21 minutes of floor time for Linas Kleiza though. 
• Yao’s length really bothered Nene.  He missed numerous layups around the basket and a dunk because of Yao’s size.
• This was the sixth time the Nuggets have played six games in nine days and it was the worst performance they have produced in those six situations posting a 1-5 record.  They went 4-2 from November 13-21, 2-4 from November 26-December 4, 2-4 from December 15-23, 5-1 from December 26 -January 3 and 5-1 from February 3-11.  The Nuggets do not have any more six games in nine night sets for the remainder of the season.  They also do not have any more four game in five night stretches either.
• With 3:58 left in the third quarter J.R. Smith missed a layup attempt over Yao as he chased the rebound down near the Rockets bench he swing his fist in frustration and yelled something at the ref.  He must have said the magic word because three Rockets simultaneously leapt up off the bench and practically chased the ref down the sideline yelling at him to call the technical.  It really was pretty funny to watch their reaction.
• Entering tonight’s game Shane Battier had missed 18 consecutive three point shots.  I predicted he would make at least three.  I was wrong, he only made two, but his second one was the decisive shot of the night when he put the Rockets up seven with a minute left.  Denver did pull to within two, but they had to start fouling to stop the clock.  If Battier misses that three the game is completely different and maybe Denver even pulls off the unlikely comeback.

Mindboggling Game Stats

Pace Factor:  94.7

Defensive Efficiency:  102.4

Offensive Efficiency:  100.3

Featured Blogs:  Rockets Buzz | The Dream Shake

Once again I am sad to say that I as I write this I have little hope for a Nuggets victory tonight.  This is the fourth game in the past seven where I feel like the Nuggets are likely to lose.  Of course, they won one of those four games (against the Lakers), but now they have lost two of the three games that were thought to be nearly sure things (at Indiana and at Sacramento).  The Nuggets are 4-7 after the All-Star break and tonight is their fourth game in five nights. 

Of course the Houston Rockets have not been sitting at home on the couch as it is their third game in four nights.  The Rockets have been hot winning nine of their previous 11 games, but looking at the schedule they have had a very heavy dosage of home games.  They have played 18 of their previous 26 games at home and in the eight road contests during that stretch they are only 2-6.

Maybe the Nuggets have a chance after all. 

The Nuggets have always struggled to cover Yao as do most teams thanks to the shortage of mobile 7’6” athletes in the NBA.  Poor Chris Andersen probably had to sit in an ice bath for 24 hours after the beating he took from Yao’s shoulders the last time these two matched up.

The other Rockets to look our for include Shane Battier who has only hit one of his 20 three point attempts in March so you know he is going to drain at least three tonight.  He loves shooting in Denver for some reason.  The Rockets other Nugget killer, Tracy McGrady, is out for the season and I believe Ron Artest is much easier to defend than McGrady.  However the Rockets’ winning streak coincided with McGrady’s departure from the lineup.  The other player that scares me is Aaron Brooks who seems to shoot well against the Nuggets and his quickness makes it impossible for Chauncey to contain him.

The Nuggets were clearly down after their loss last night in Sacramento and aparently at a loss for answers.  It will be interesting to see how they respond. 

Both Kenyon Martin and Anthony Carter are still listed as questionable and I would not expect either one to play. 

I am not going to say this game is unwinnable for Denver, but pulling out a victory will be a tall task. 

Denver Nuggets Game Notes

Previous Matchups:  Game 18 – Den 104 Hou 94 | Game 25 – Den 96 Hou 108
Game 42 – Den 113 Hou 115

Featured Blogs:  Rockets Buzz | The Dream Shake

Take this with you:  The Nuggets confidence is shattered, but even in the midst of their second half collapse they have won three straight at home.  Hopefully a return to the Pepsi Center is what they need to get back on track.

Box Score | Highlights

Sorry for the belated and brief post.  The Nuggets deserve to be skewered for their performance last night.  Sadly I just do not have the time to go all out on them.  The four games in five nights is not only tough on the players, it is tough on the bloggers too.

I have no idea how the Denver Nuggets could play the way they did in Sacramento knowing that a loss drops them out of first place in the division.  You could tell as the game wore on that they realized they were in danger of losing to the worst team in the Western Conference and they tried to crank up the intensity as time ran down.  The problem was the Kings realized early on that it was their night.  As the threes started to fall the entire team was filled with confidence.  By the end of the game when the Nuggets were finally challenging the Kings’ shooters, it was too late, they were all dialed in. 

Offensively the Nuggets played their lazy perimeter game involving one or maybe two passes and a jump shot until the final minutes when Chauncey Billups realized he better start going to the basket.  Last night I thought at key portions of the game Chauncey was trying to force his offense by posting up on Will Solomon, which resulted in the offense becoming even more stagnant.  Billups finally started going at the rim during the fourth quarter and the Nuggets shot 15 free throws in the final stanza as a result, but it was too little too late.

After starting the season dominating the lesser teams in the NBA Denver has now lost to five sub .500 teams since the All-Star break and Detroit was under .500 when they beat Denver earlier in the week.  I listed out the sub .500 teams left on the schedule and Denver has a great opportunity to take advantage of those games and reinsert themselves back amongst the elite of the west, but if they continue to play uninspired ball in the first quarter and give these teams hope they may not be able to take advantage of their relatively easy finishing schedule.

Additional Game 64 Nuggets

• One cliché you hear in the NBA is never foul a jump shooter.  Apparently that is not one of the sayings the Nuggets are familiar with.  How many times did the Nuggets foul a King taking a shot from 18 feet or further?  Five?  Six?  The number is probably even higher than that.  If you are concerned about a player’s outside shot you do not play five feet off and then lunge at him when he brings the ball up. 
• J.R. continued to be aggressive on offense.  He tried to force his way to the rim through the teeth of the defense resulting in a couple of turnovers, but his attacking style is quickly becoming a staple of the Nuggets offense.  He seemed to be looking to shoot almost every time though and he finished the game with zero assists.

Mindboggling Game Stats

Pace Factor:  94.6

Defensive Efficiency:  120.5 – I am guessing that is one of the worst defensive efficiencies the Kings have dropped on someone all season long.

Offensive Efficiency:  112.1 – That should have been good enough.

Featured Blog:  Sactown Royalty

Here is a partial list of teams the Denver Nuggets will play over their final 19 games.  Sacramento (twice), Oklahoma City (twice), the Clippers (twice), New Jersey, Memphis, Washington, Golden State, New York, Minnesota.  Those are twelve games the Nuggets should win.  It starts tonight with the Kings.

Denver Nuggets Game Notes

Previous Matchups:  Game 21:  Den 118 Sac 85 | Game 43:  Den 18 Sac 99

Featured Blog:  Sactown Royalty