Gwynne Dyer is probably one of the most respected military analysts in the world. His book “War” and the accompanying TV series solidified his place in history as a prolific writer and communicator. He can state the obvious insanity of the proliferation of war in a manner that can be understood even by the least among us.
One of his recent pieces, Bush's hawks size up Iran, outlines a scenario of possible events that will transpire if the United States attacks Iran. I can only assume that since Mr. Dyer’s commentaries are syndicated to so many newspapers around the world, he is restricted by space, and limited to a certain number of words. This allows him to describe only the minimum consequences of certain conflicts. In this article especially, he happens to describe the best case scenario that one could envision: A catastrophic global economic collapse that will force the United States to halt its bombardment of Iran. The end result of which would be that the “US would suffer a far greater humiliation than it did in Vietnam, while Iran would emerge as the undisputed arbiter of the region”.
To meet his editorial guidelines and save space, what Mr. Dyer must have left on the cutting room floor are the following:
- The boundaries that we see on world maps marking the territories of countries are just what we see - lines on a piece of paper. Iranians are not confined to lines drawn by European powers decades ago. Iranians live not only in Iran but also, en masse, in all the countries in the region. Certain parts of Iran’s neighbors even speak dialects of Farsi. So if the United States bombs Iran, since there is no way they have any intentions of invading, they would be declaring war on parts of every country surrounding Iran. This would mean that the United States would be at war with every country in the region since civil war would breakout in all the US installed puppet regimes. This could explain why the United States has created a new map of the Middle East.
- Not only are Iranians spread out in the region, they are also living, en masse, in the rest of the world. The Iranian Diaspora Population map shows that approximately 2.5 million live in the US alone, 700,000 in Canada, 300,000 in the UK, and 2 million in India. If a war breakouts between the US and Iran then what transpired with the internment of Japanese Americans and Canadians during World War II would become a distant memory and a travesty that will be repeated. Unfortunately it appears that the United States is prepared for this scenario, since it has already built 800 FEMA prison camps which are fully operational and ready to receive prisoners.
A question does come to mind however; will a nation of Christians and non-Muslims be able to prevent genocide during this World War? I personally doubt it, because the threat from those who are of Middle Eastern descent will be a real one that Western governments will exploit.
click map to enlarge - source - If the United States attacks Iran, then Iran could stop exporting oil and/or “get tough and close down all oil-tanker traffic that comes within range of (its) missiles–which would mean little or no oil from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, or the smaller Gulf states”. This is a very likely scenario, but what exactly does “global oil rationing, industrial shutdowns, and the end of the present economic era” mean? One way to fully understand the impact of such an event is to look at Africa. The population of Africa at the present is approximately 1 billion. According to a recent presentation at a United Nations conference, it is estimated that “nearly 75% of the continent could come to rely on some sort of food aid by 2025”. If there is “global oil rationing” then it is safe to assume that feeding Africans would become a low priority operation for the rest of the world. This could mean that 750 million people could starve to death in Africa.
- Just to put things into perspective, making sure that it is fully understood what the impact of an attack on Iran really means, consider this. The United States has already stated that they will use nuclear weapons in an aerial bombardment campaign against Iran. Since the creation of the atomic bomb, it has been accepted that once nuclear weapons are used again in any war, then they will continue to be used until there is no one left to kill. As the saying goes, you do not bring a knife to a gunfight, so once a nuclear weapon has been used on any country then that country and its people have a right to use nuclear weapons in retaliation. Albert Einstein once said, “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones”. I personally hope that we will not fulfill Einstein’s prophecy.
click map to enlarge
click map to enlarge - source
After reading countless articles by Mr. Dyer, I now finally understand how he has been able to educate so many people over the years. He presents an optimistic point of view, making his work accessible to the majority.
Gwynne Dyer’s commentary on Iran was not meant to let us know how many people would die if the US attacked Iran, it was meant to let us know who would win. He predicts that Iran would end up being the victor. However, considering that hundreds of millions of people would actually die if the US starts a war with Iran, my conclusion is that no one would be the winner of such a conflict.
So even though Mr. Dyer’s secret appears to be his optimistic analysis of the final outcome of conflicts between warring nations, I do not believe hoping for the best case scenario will manifest the least amount of death and destruction.
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Gwynne Dyer's credibility is not really in question here; he is an expert in his field. You can disagree with him if you wish but that doesn’t take away from his credibility.
What he wrote in his piece regarding Iran was accurate but only on a superficial level; he did not go into detail as to why or how the US would lose a war with Iran. This post present some food for thought for anyone that still believes a war with Iran will actually be contained in that region.
As for Mr. Dyer’s quote, I suggest that you analyze it further, what he is stating is actually taking place right now.