In a recent essay entitled Cold War II, Noam Chomsky uses a metaphor to explain the probability of Iran actually using a nuclear weapon to attack Europe. He likens it to the probability of “Europe being hit by an asteroid”. Lets quantify this statement by doing some calculations.
Europe’s surface area (including parts of Russia) is approximately 10 million square km. Earth’s surface area is estimated to be approximately 510 million square km. This means that the probability of an asteroid actually hitting Europe is less then 2% of the probability of an asteroid actually hitting the Earth. What is the probability of an asteroid actually hitting the Earth?
According to Perry A. Gerakines, an assistant professor in the department of physics at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, “at the current rate of impacts, we would expect about one large asteroid to impact Earth every 100 million years.” Since Europe contains only 2% of the total surface area of the Earth, this means that the probability of an asteroid hitting Europe is 1 in 5 billion. That’s 1 in 5,000,000,000.
One would have to assume scientists and mathematicians working at the Pentagon know this, so why do they want to install a Missile Defense System in Europe, which according to Chomsky: “ratchets the threat of war a few notches higher, in the Middle East and elsewhere, with incalculable consequences, and the potential for a terminal nuclear war”? According to the United States, it’s to “knock out incoming ballistic missiles potentially coming from North Korea and Iran”. If we assume that the probability of North Korea attacking Europe with nuclear weapons is that of Iran, then United States tax payers are spending billions of dollars and starting a second cold war, with potentially terminal consequences, based on a probability of 0.00000004% (2 divided by 5 billion). Considering how the US economy is doing, one would think that Americans could find a better way to spend their money.
For those European countries concerned about a nuclear attack from Iran, consider the following: The solution to this quagmire between the United States and Iran is simple: declare the Middle East a nuclear-weapons free zone. This of course the United States will go to war for to prevent, since it would mean that all of its nuclear powered forces would have to vacate the Middle East, and Israel would have to dismantle it’s Nuclear weapons. By not making the region a nuclear-weapons free zone the United States can legitimize its aggressive stance, and demonize a possible nuclear Iran, spreading its Cold War containment policy to Europe.
I would like to leave you with the following quote from one of America's greatest philosophers:
- “…I had a vision of a way we could have no enemies ever again, if you’re interested in this. Anybody interested in hearing this? It’s kind of an interesting theory, and all we have to do is make one decisive act and we can rid the world of all our enemies at once. Here’s what we can do. You know all that money we spend on nuclear weapons and defense every year? Trillions of dollars.
Instead, if we spend that money feeding and clothing the poor of the world, which it would pay for many times over, not one human being excluded … not one … we could as one race explore outer space together in peace, for ever.” -- Bill Hicks: What is the point to Life (2:57)
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