... (For the week of Aug 24th through Aug 30th) This past week was another pretty good week of predictions where I nailed the track and intensity of Hurricane Bill. I called for a cat 1 hurricane to hit New Foundland as the only landfall of the eye and for it to pass safely between Bermuda and the U.S. I called for a cat 4 hurricane which Bill reached while N.E of the Leeward Isl. I called for the remnants of Ana to move into the northern Gulf & possibly regenerate into a weak T.S which it did not. I also called for Danny to form out in the Atlantic and that never happened. The 75% for last week was due to the perfect score on Bill which gives me 95% so far for the year my best effort in 10 years to date. As Bill exits the picture while becoming extratropical , I am watching an area of disturbed weather east of the Leeward Islands. Most models develop this system & move it towards the S.E.U.S and then NNE. Of course the tricky part with a system like this is that it has not even developed yet so we don't know where the center is. The wave is on the east side of an upper level low that is drifting west. Shear of 20 to 30 mph should resist any significant development while it moves WNW. The same trough that kicked Bill N.E is still lingering and with this wave moving quickly I think this system will also move more N.W & then North. I expect Danny to form N.E of the Bahamas & then head north towards the outer banks. Another strong trough should develop on the east coast by the weekend & take Danny north staying just offshore. I think a strong enough high should remain N.E of Bermuda to steer Danny due north or just east of North into the Cape Cod area & right up into Maine. I expect no more than cat 1 status north of the Bahamas but I could really blow this & it could develop quickly but no models explosively develop this system. Some models are hinting at another Cape Verde system forming in the Atlantic & heading towards the Leeward Island by the weekend. There is a weak wave near Africa right now that does have a high pressure aloft so it is possible. I will call for Erika to form into a tropical storm by the weekend. Elsewhere I do not see any named storms forming.|
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|2003, jims top 5 #1)Halifax NS (Juan) #2)Cozumel (Claudette), #3)Brownsville (Erika), #4)Oviedo DR (Odette) #5)Elizabeth city N.C (Isabel).|
2004 top 5 #1)Ft Walton/Pensacola (Ivan) ,#2)Cape hatteras (Gaston),#3)Acklins Isl BH (Frances), #4)Cozumel (0),#5)Cabo Corrientes Cuba (Ivan).
2005 top 5 Punta Allen MX (Emily), #2)Gulfport MS (Katrina), #3)Pascagoula MS (Katrina), #4)Vero bch (0), #5)Biloxi MS (Katrina) "notice the Mississippi heavy leaning"
2006 top 5 #1)vero bch (Ernesto), #2)Pascagoula MS(0), #3) Sable Isl NS (0), #4)Mobile Al (0), #5)Cape Hatteras (0),
2007 top 5 #1)Elizabeth city NC (Gabrielle), #2)Belize (Dean),#3)Bluefields Nicaragua (0), #4)Antigua (0), #5)Martinique(Dean).
2008 top 5 #1)St Martin (Omar), #2)Antigua/guadeloupe (0), #3)Grand Bahama (0), #4) Destin (0), #5) Vero to Lake worth (Fay) .
VERY HIGH THREAT.......Grand Bahama Island.....Cancun Mexico.....Bluefields Nicaragua.....Ft Lauderdale Florida.....Pascagoula Mississippi.....
HIGH THREATLake Worth Florida.....Destin to Ft Walton Florida(T.S Claudette).....Mobile Alabama.....Boca Raton Florida.....Guadeloupe.....Cat Island Bahamas.....
MODERATE THREAT...Tampico Mexico.....Deerfield bch Florida.....Gulfport Mississippi.....Delray beach Florida.....Grenada.....Biloxi Mississippi.....Cape Cod Massachusetts.....Elizabeth city North Carolina.....Boynton beach Florida.....
La Pesca Mexico.....Acklins Isl Bahamas.....Merida Mexico.....Bimini Bahamas.....Beaufort South Carolina.....Miami Florida.....Key Largo Florida.....Florida City Florida.....Spring Hill Florida.....
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