Hurricane TV

Jim's predictions for the week!!

DISCLAIMER:These weekly predictions are just for fun(although I may be right from time to time) DISCLAIMER:I am not a meteorologist,I am not a forecaster,forecasters have degrees.I check satellite,Models & upper air flows to make my decisions ,basically throwing the dice. Sometimes I may notice something the forecast models do not pick up on. For official advisories and forecast's go to The National hurricane center.
Updated every Monday.(Times may vary) but there will be updated predictions for significant hurricane threats
Accuracy basis per week=0%=a storm forms a day or two after saying no development or completely off on every aspect of current system for the week & something else forms I did not predictor nothing forms & I predicted a named storm---30%= may get 1 thing right such as strength, but way wrong on direction & or time of landfall.---50%= after predicting no development a storm forms on the 5th day of period or I am right on strength & off on movement or visa versa---70%=after predicting no development a storm forms on 6th day of forecast or everything right except strength & or a bit off of movement of system.---100%= I predict no development & nothing happens or I predict everything pretty accurate except for just off on movement give or take 100 miles off or so..
WEEK#1==100%--#2=100%--#3=100%--#4=100%--#5=100%--#6=100%--#7=100%--#8=90%--#9=100%--#10=100%--#11=75%--#12=75% =1140..so far for the 2009 season 95.00%
Season accuracy after the 2001 Hurricane season 70.77%
Season accuracy after the 2002 Hurricane season 75.20%
Season accuracy after the 2003 Hurricane season 53.20%
Season accuracy after the 2004 Hurricane season 68.87%
Season accuracy after the 2005 Hurricane season 51.56%
Season accuracy after the 2006 Hurricane season 70.62%
Season accuracy after the 2007 Hurricane season 72.76%
Season accuracy after the 2008 Hurricane season 58.46%

Predictions from Monday stay up no matter how bad until the following Sunday or Monday,this is the challenge of a 6/7 day forecast
... (For the week of Aug 24th through Aug 30th) This past week was another pretty good week of predictions where I nailed the track and intensity of Hurricane Bill. I called for a cat 1 hurricane to hit New Foundland as the only landfall of the eye and for it to pass safely between Bermuda and the U.S. I called for a cat 4 hurricane which Bill reached while N.E of the Leeward Isl. I called for the remnants of Ana to move into the northern Gulf & possibly regenerate into a weak T.S which it did not. I also called for Danny to form out in the Atlantic and that never happened. The 75% for last week was due to the perfect score on Bill which gives me 95% so far for the year my best effort in 10 years to date. As Bill exits the picture while becoming extratropical , I am watching an area of disturbed weather east of the Leeward Islands. Most models develop this system & move it towards the S.E.U.S and then NNE. Of course the tricky part with a system like this is that it has not even developed yet so we don't know where the center is. The wave is on the east side of an upper level low that is drifting west. Shear of 20 to 30 mph should resist any significant development while it moves WNW. The same trough that kicked Bill N.E is still lingering and with this wave moving quickly I think this system will also move more N.W & then North. I expect Danny to form N.E of the Bahamas & then head north towards the outer banks. Another strong trough should develop on the east coast by the weekend & take Danny north staying just offshore. I think a strong enough high should remain N.E of Bermuda to steer Danny due north or just east of North into the Cape Cod area & right up into Maine. I expect no more than cat 1 status north of the Bahamas but I could really blow this & it could develop quickly but no models explosively develop this system. Some models are hinting at another Cape Verde system forming in the Atlantic & heading towards the Leeward Island by the weekend. There is a weak wave near Africa right now that does have a high pressure aloft so it is possible. I will call for Erika to form into a tropical storm by the weekend. Elsewhere I do not see any named storms forming.
Be sure to check out my tropical update videos right here


2003, jims top 5 #1)Halifax NS (Juan) #2)Cozumel (Claudette), #3)Brownsville (Erika), #4)Oviedo DR (Odette) #5)Elizabeth city N.C (Isabel).
2004 top 5 #1)Ft Walton/Pensacola (Ivan) ,#2)Cape hatteras (Gaston),#3)Acklins Isl BH (Frances), #4)Cozumel (0),#5)Cabo Corrientes Cuba (Ivan).
2005 top 5 Punta Allen MX (Emily), #2)Gulfport MS (Katrina), #3)Pascagoula MS (Katrina), #4)Vero bch (0), #5)Biloxi MS (Katrina) "notice the Mississippi heavy leaning"
2006 top 5 #1)vero bch (Ernesto), #2)Pascagoula MS(0), #3) Sable Isl NS (0), #4)Mobile Al (0), #5)Cape Hatteras (0),
2007 top 5 #1)Elizabeth city NC (Gabrielle), #2)Belize (Dean),#3)Bluefields Nicaragua (0), #4)Antigua (0), #5)Martinique(Dean).
2008 top 5 #1)St Martin (Omar), #2)Antigua/guadeloupe (0), #3)Grand Bahama (0), #4) Destin (0), #5) Vero to Lake worth (Fay) .

Picks for the 2009 season based on 13 or more named storms

VERY HIGH THREAT.......Grand Bahama Island.....Cancun Mexico.....Bluefields Nicaragua.....Ft Lauderdale Florida.....Pascagoula Mississippi.....
HIGH THREATLake Worth Florida.....Destin to Ft Walton Florida(T.S Claudette).....Mobile Alabama.....Boca Raton Florida.....Guadeloupe.....Cat Island Bahamas.....
MODERATE THREAT...Tampico Mexico.....Deerfield bch Florida.....Gulfport Mississippi.....Delray beach Florida.....Grenada.....Biloxi Mississippi.....Cape Cod Massachusetts.....Elizabeth city North Carolina.....Boynton beach Florida.....
Ticking timebomb.....Barbados

Picks for the 2009 season based on a slow season of 9 to 12 named storms

La Pesca Mexico.....Acklins Isl Bahamas.....Merida Mexico.....Bimini Bahamas.....Beaufort South Carolina.....Miami Florida.....Key Largo Florida.....Florida City Florida.....Spring Hill Florida.....
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During this week back in?

MODELS / PREDICTIONS

24 hour AVN model
current upper level winds
48 hour atlantic AVN model
upper level winds in 48 hrs
GFS/NGM/NAM models up to 11days,SW Atl basin
Long range model runs
NAM (North American Mesoscale) 5 day loop
ECMWF Euorpean model (fox tampa)
ECMWF model animated
Navy FNMOC world WXMAP Nogaps
Animated versions of gfs,cmc,nogaps,gfdl,wrf
Animated versions of cmc,gfs,gfdl,nogaps,
UKMET via wyoming.edu

Scatterometer storm surface winds
Current & past winds at all levels
NOAA quikscat
forecaster Derek Ortt's opinions on the current storm
Crown Weather services Graphical model layouts
Tropical cyclone formation potential
African dust animation
is it warm or cold core system?
BOUY & SHIP DATA

(MAP)Buoy data

Ocean pressures from sailwx.info
Sea level pressure anomalies
Nowcast make your own maps
MJO forecast
caribbean obs Get observations from Caribbean Islands & Mexico here
Waves coming off of Africa
weather Observations of waves in africa
closeup satelites of waves in Africa

enhanced African waves (fenmoc)>

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

sea surface temperatures(global daily)
Great atlantic water temp map from weatherunderground
Closeup water temp map of NE US
Closeup water temp map of SE US
SST animation NOAA atlantic basin
Easier to read water temp maps from TPC(although not updated as often as above link)
Here you can run animated historical water temps for the Atlantic basin from USF.
NCEP hurricane potential, from SSTs to water temps
World ocean temperature anomalies over the past 12 weeks
SST Depths and heat potential (AOML)
keep track of the MJO (moisture)here
TIDES & SATELLITE LOOPS
Wave forecast's for western Atlantic basin
Expected high tides for areas affected by tropical systems listed in alphabetical order
Naval map of wave heights
Color enhanced vapor loop
moving vapor loops from CIMSS

Water vapor earth scan lab channel 3 LSU


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