Fantasy Football Advice

The Fantasy Football Knights of the Roundtable have gathered here to help conquer the evil questions that plague the realm of Fantasy Footballia.  Below you will find the metaphorical swords to slay your opponents, metaphorically.

Sleepers:

Eli Manning, New York Giants

The Buccaneers have given up 282 yards per game through the air and a league high 10 yards per reception.  They are also picking defensive backs off the street which only works some of the time.  I am not a fan of Eli, especially in fantasy, but sometimes the numbers just are too obvious.  Little bro is 5th in the league in yardage and has found a new favorite target in Mario Manningham.

Mike Sims-Walker, Jacksonville Jaguars

With Troy Williamson out Sim-Walker will get to face the porous Houston defense.  And since the Jags D isn’t exactly the reincarnation of Lott, Woodson, Green and “Night Trane” Lane, Schaub and company should be able to keep the Jags passing which is where they need to be for Sims-Walker to get some garbage time receptions like he did last week.

Jermichael Finley, Green Bay Packers

The Rams are giving up 80 yards a game to tight ends and are just all around bad.  They rank 29th in DVOA against TE’s according to our friends over at Football Outsiders. The Packers are going to put it to the Rams after losing at home to Cincinnati. And they always seem to have trouble with TE’s whose names seem to be one thing, but switch up right in the middle.

Busts:

Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos

I have hopes for Marshall to finally get in gear, but that usually doesn’t happen against the Raiders’ all world cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha.  And it’s also not a given that he’ll get that much time in the McDaniels wide receiver rotation. It is almost a blessing that he’ll be covered by Asomugha so you don’t have to run him out there based solely on his potential.

Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals

After a hard fought win at Green Bay I see the Bengals having a let down game against the Steelers who won’t want to go 1-2 on the year.  The Steelers linebackers will get to Palmer early and often and he has to be a little gun shy of black and gold things heading toward his legs.

Vincanthe Shiancoe, Minnesota Vikings

The 49ers have given up a big 22 yards a game to TE’s and Favre hasn’t been targeting Shiancoe like I thought he would.  Adrian Peterson gets all the attention.  It’s just not fair!

Quarterbacks — Matt Schauf, Rapid Draft.com

Sleeper: Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia Eagles

I’m not sure you can still qualify for “sleeper” status a week after you throw for 391 yards, but many folks might look at Kolb’s Week 2 totals as an aberration — a product of being required to throw to try to keep up with and then catch the Saints. Well, he probably won’t toss it 51 times again this week, but Kolb would seem to be a pretty good bet for at least 35 attempts — especially with Brian Westbrook a bit gimpy.

Had someone graciously stopped last week’s game at the half, you’d have seen a debut starter go 14-for-22 for 196 yards, a touchdown and a 107.4 rating. This week’s opponent, Kansas City, would have much worse pass-defense numbers if it hadn’t been lucky enough to get JaMarcus Russell in Week 2. Joe Flacco carved up the Chiefs for 307 yards and three touchdowns in Week 1. If you’re like me (in one league) and have both Donovan McNabb and Matt Hasselbeck likely on the shelf, Kolb looks like a waiver-wire beacon.

Bust: Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals

It’s always risky to go searching for a fantasy replacement for Warner, but it also doesn’t seem like a good idea to dream of big Week 3 numbers. A year after setting an NFL record by allowing just six touchdown passes, the Colts have gone two games this season without allowing one. That’s easier to do when you start with Jacksonville and Miami, but only three other defenses have matched that.

Perhaps even more promising, the Niners sacked Warner three times in the season opener and hit him eight times in all without a single rusher who can get to the point as quickly as Dwight Freeney or Robert Mathis. Warner could pad his yardage totals this week if he has to keep up with the Colts passing attack we saw Monday night, but expecting more than one touchdown toss seems unwise.

Running Backs — Bryan Fontaine, RookieBlitz.com

Sleeper: Felix Jones, Dallas Cowboys

Felix Jones proved that his Week 1 injury concerns wouldn’t hamper him against the Giants.  Jones makes a great flex player with his ability to take a limited number of touches for big plays.  Jones scampered for a 56 yard gain in the 3^rd quarter and later scored the go-ahead touchdown after Marion Barber limped off the field.  Early reports have Barber missing two games because of his injury, though there is an outside chance he could still be a game time decision.  If Barber misses any time, Jones instantly becomes a strong RB2 play this week against the injury riddled Panthers defense on Monday Night Football.  Even in a 60/40 split with Tashard Choice, Jones could still rack up 150 total yards and a score.  Should Barber still play, Felix Jones still makes a fine flex option.

Bust: Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers

For the second week in a row Fast Willie Parker looked washed up.  It’s hard to explain what has happened but he doesn’t have the same burst he has had in the past and looks lost on the field.  Rashard Mendenhall is still learning the game otherwise Parker probably wouldn’t be seeing the field much if at all.  Mewelde Moore has taken a larger role lately because of Parker’s ineffectiveness.  Coach Tomlin values veterans so Parker won’t be kicked to the curb, but his usefulness as a starter on your fantasy team has run its course.  He should be benched in the Steelers Week 3 matchup with the tougher than advertised Bengals defense.

Wide Receivers — Jim Day, Fantasy Football Whiz

Sleeper: Steve Smith, New York Giants

Smith is coming off a great game that was basically overshadowed by Mario Manningham. The Bucs have been beaten up in the air so far, having allowed 583 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2 weeks. I’m looking for the Bucs to move a safety over to Manningham’s side and allow more room for Smith to move. Smith has quietly become a guy you probably shouldn’t sit, at least until the Giants get their running game moving. I’m looking for Smith to be a solid WR3 with possible WR2 numbers possible.

Bust: Derrick Mason, Baltimore Ravens

Mason has gotten off to a slow start, but in his last game against Cleveland he recorded 9 receptions for 136 yards and a touchdown. Don’t look for those numbers this week. Cleveland’s secondary has been playing solid ball, but their rushing defense has given up over 200 yards per game and 5 touchdowns. I look for Baltimore’s 3-headed rushing monster to dominate this game and take the ball out of Flacco’s hands early. Don’t think that this is the week that Mason breaks out.

Tight Ends — Greg Deitz, Big Troph.com

Sleeper: Brent Celek, Philadelphia Eagles

Celek went over the 100 yard mark for the first time this season against New Orleans in week two and it was the second time he eclipsed the century mark in his career. Young quarterbacks like to rely on their tight end as a safety valve and with Kevin Kolb most likely getting the start again this weekend, I expect Celek to take off for another big game against Kansas City in week three. Star wide receiver DeSean Jackson has been nursing an achy groin all week and even if he does go, he might not be at full strength, which will mean more pass opportunities for Celek who has averaged over 11 yards per catch in his career.

Bust: Greg Olsen, Chicago Bears

Coming into the year, Greg Olsen was labeled as a breakout talent by many people throughout the fantasy community including myself. Unfortunately, while he showed some signs of life last week with 44 yards receiving, the road this week doesn’t get any easier for the third year tight end. He is going up against a Seattle defense that has not given up a passing touchdown yet and has only allowed 147 passing yards per game through the first two weeks. Granted, Seattle faced off against Marc Bulger and Shaun Hill (neither of which are even close to being Cutler) but stifling two passing attacks that much only means bad things for opponents. Olsen will bust out at some point this year when the Bears offense finds a rhythm, but it will not happen this week.

Tashard Choice went off last year after the Cat and the Barbarian were both out of commission. That was against actual defenses and if Barber is out next week the team Choice will face, Carolina, has yet to show signs of an actual defense.  Of course reports on Marion Barber vary from day to day to 2 weeks.  Do you waste a waiver priority on Choice?  Well, it is your, um, selection, but I am putting a waiver claim on him where I need a spot starter with upside and waiting on him in other leagues.  Weigh your options and how badly you need a running back.  Just remember that Dallas plays on Monday night and if Barber is a game time decision, well, you could get screwed.

And now, the rest of the story:

Matt Hasselbeck: The news doesn’t sound good for Hass’ ribs and his name doesn’t sound too good for Glen Beck either.  Oh and while we’re at it the entire Seahawks organization isn’t too happy about him getting hurt because they were horrible without him last year. He says he wants to play, but we don’t always get what we want.

Mike Bell: His MRI showed a MCL sprain.  I wouldn’t count on him.  Pierre Thomas owners have been in mourning for a while and PT really needs to get out there and perform well to lift their veils.

Ronnie Brown: He went all wildcat wild on Monday night.  That made me happy. I’ve seen what Brown can do for me and I’ll sign for that even if I am taking a nap.

Byron Leftwich: So this guy takes about a minute winding up to throw and he’s thrown the ball 90+ times this year so you extrapolate that and he spends about 36 days a year just winding up to throw a ball!  Kinda puts things in perspective doesn’t it?  The Bucs D has hit the skids and Lord Byron will serve out some poetic justice, but not too much, just enough for a bye week spot starter.

Justin Forsett: He is worth a flier especially in deeper leagues.  He has home run speed and was targeted in the passing game against the 49ers.  Jones is the starter, but I think Forsett earned himself more touches.

Julian Edelman: Is this the name of a NFL player?  Yeah, he caught 8 passes for 98 yards last week, don’t you read the papers?  If Welker is ok for week 3 Edelman is dead weight, if not, he is live weight which is much easier to carry, especially on your rosters.

Marcedes Lewis: There are too many good TE’s to choose from this season.  Lewis drops the ball, not like when you forget the coversheet on the TPS reports, but like when the ball is thrown to you and you put your hands together to catch it, but it falls to the ground with a deafening thud.  see Ted Ginn Jr.  But even with that he can get open and run after the catch and he’s being targeted.

Antonio Bryant can duck every fantasy gamer he is jack knifing. Languishing members, not of productive, quality razzballers, sigh til unhinged victories waiver xylophonically, yes zealously.  Huh?  Anyway, Bryant’s injury will keep him out for a while, but supposedly it doesn’t have anything to do with his offseason surgery.  With Leftwich throwing like the world is about to end (it’s not?) I’m still holding out hope.  You can get him at an extremely low price, but I’d wait, he may be dropped soon.

If you missed the initial “Sleeper Math” post, you can read it here.

Let’s remind ourselves of the formula:

Sleeper Rating = Amount of Talent (Individual + Team Support) + Opportunity

Now that we have two weeks of regular season play under our belts things have changed. As I wrote about in a previous post this is a new era where our drafts are behind us and we start getting paranoid about our studs not panning out. Some players haven’t put up numbers and that is a good thing. So all the players I’m going to talk about here I look at within a “buy low” framework.

Tier I

Calvin Johnson 19 (10+9) – Everyone expects production similar to Andre Johnson. I think that is reasonable. Don’t talk to me about how he has no quarterback and is on a bad team. Last year he had a worse QB, worse offense around him, and the worst team possible (0-16) yet he put up huge numbers. Strong work ethic, physical specimen, etc. But all the negativity I just rebutted; you can bet some owners are very nervous about those things. Play psychological warfare and see if you can steal him for a couple good players.

Steve Slaton 17 (9+8) – He has disappointed thus far but the offense looked dynamite last week. The yards, receptions, and touchdowns will be there. Astute owners and people who drafted him too high (1^st round reachers) won’t cough him up but luckily most people are nervous nellies. If you get in to negotiations make sure you play up the fact that Chris Brown is listed as the short distance back and will snake TD’s from Slaton (personally I’m not all that concerned about this but other people are).

Marshawn Lynch 16 (8+8) – Is that Fred Jackson out there or Brian Westbrook? It’s been hard to tell through the first two weeks and you can bet that there are some Lynch owners getting very nervous about it. Personally I think Lynch is going to come in guns blazing, be the feature back, and get all the goal line carries. You can get him extremely cheap right now.

Wes Welker 16 (7+9) – This is for PPR only! If you own Welker in non-PPR odds are you overpaid for him. The Patriots offense isn’t what it was in 2007 but it’s also better than it’s been the first few weeks. Welker missed week 2 but it doesn’t seem like his injury will keep him out of any more games. From here on out he’ll be back to his old tricks and catching 6-10 balls every single week.

Brandon Marshall 16 (9+7) – The tough call here is whether or not Marshall will get the number of targets he needs to be his elite self. So far he hasn’t been spectacular but the reality is he’s as physically gifted as any other receiver in football. Owners should be willing to give a discount on him.

Tier II

Mario Manningham 16 (8+8) – I can’t list this guy as a Tier III Sleeper even though he went undrafted in all but the deepest leagues. The cat is out of the bag about his talent and the Giants willingness to give him massive numbers of targets. You are going to have to give up something decent to get him. There will be a lot of smart fantasy owners this season who trade for him and seemingly give up “too much” but end up getting the better end of the bargain.

LeSean McCoy 15 (9+6) – Westbrook’s injury status is still uncertain. If he winds up missing significant time McCoy could deliver 2^nd round value. I would be willing to pay for that type of potential production. He might be the best stash in fantasy football right now.

Percy Harvin 15 (8+7) – Still listed as the #3 on the depth chart in a lot of places but you and I both know how Brett Favre feels about turning young, nubile WR’s in to studs- he loves it. It is evident that Harvin is a superior player to Berrian and Sidney Rice and I just see him potentially being a breakout rookie.

Eddie Royal 15 (8+7) – The lack of targets in the first few weeks kill his value. Even so he is listed as the #1 receiver on the depth chart and the Broncos used him like crazy in the preseason. Dude’s got a lot of talent and he’s not a bad player to take a chance on considering the pass-happy offense that Josh McDaniel’s is integrating in Denver.

Ahmad Bradshaw 15 (8+7) I am downgrading his skill a little bit from the previous post. I am not convinced he has “Sproles-like” explosiveness. Even so the Giants offense is going to be respectable this season and Brandon Jacobs continues to punish his body along with defenders he collides with. Bradshaw hasn’t done anything spectacular thus far which should lower his asking price unless you are in leagues full of Giants fans like I am. Then you have to give up Brees to get him.

Tier III

Chansi Stuckey 14 (7+7) – I really like what I’ve seen so far this season from Stuckey. I also like what I’ve seen out of Mark Sanchez’s willingness to target him in the Red Zone and on deep routes. There are worse stashes out there.

Nate Washington 14 (7+7) – He looked really solid this weekend after missing the Titans first game. They looked to get him the ball a lot more than Justin Gage and I’m not sure how seriously to consider that yet. Either way he’s worth tucking on your bench if you have room and need receiver depth.

Laurent Robinson 14 (8+6) – Another receiver that played a really nice game on Sunday. He’s usurped Donnie Avery as the #1 in St. Louis and his skill set could turn out to be better than advertised. I would love to rate him higher but St. Louis looks atrocious.  It is very difficult to find #1 WR’s on the waiver wire. Here’s one.

Louis Murphy 14 (7+7) – What’s with all the receivers??? Look it’s not my fault they’re all coming out of the woodwork. Plus if you read my first “Sleeper Math” you’ll see that I nailed a lot of the running backs and whiffed on receivers ergo the imbalance in Tier III this time around. Isn’t it funny how when guys get drafted high and get a big contract they just aren’t hungry *cough* Darrius Heyward-Bey *cough.* Louis Murphy is yet another dude who wants that big contract and so he’s willing to fight and claw for everything he can get. He is now the #1 but again here’s another atrocious Offense.

Jerious Norwood 13 (8+5) – I can’t end this post without giving you a RB stash. Here’s another Sproles-clone for you and he’s in a decent Offense. Michael Turner had 28 carries last week. Do the Falcons have some sort of bet riding on how quickly they can get this dude injured? Maybe you’re one of those old dudes who don’t believe that a lot of carries increases your chances of getting injured. If, however, you like facts vs. glorifying a twisted view of the past I suggest stashing Norwood for when Turner wears down or worse.

You can follow me on twitter: @Razzball_Drew

Monday Night Football has lost some of it’s mystique for me now that I am older and don’t wear big headed charactertures of my favorite players on my shirts.  (Those Bash Brother shirts were ironic, huh?).  But with Jon Gruden taking over for Mr. Potato Head I am actually looking forward to watching as well as listening to the game, well, if I could somehow turn down Jaws’ used car sales-voice I would be happier.  My wife always asks why football announcers scream all of the time and I just can’t give her a good answer.  Jaws could learn something from Vin Scully, well, all of us could really.  Anyway, Gruden is good.  He knows what he’s talking about and he gives it to us straight.  Here’s hoping he doesn’t go back to coaching soon.

There is a game tonight and one with some interesting fantasy questions to answer.  You all know my Ronnie Brown love.  It is still true and strong and spectacular.  I can’t say I am thrilled about Ricky Williams getting so many looks, but this is the way football is played now and I knew it was there, lurking like a doctor’s appointment.  I see a good game from him against the Sanders-less Colts.  I hope Pennington can at least try to stretch the field with his noodle arm and give Ronnie some running room.  Chad is hurting Ginn Jr. and Bess and whoever else is playing wide receiver on a given day, and the Colts pass D is their strength.  I look for Bess to be helpful in ppr tonight, but big yardage from either will be asking a little too much. So stop asking!

The Dolphins D stopped Michael Turner in week one and should be able to keep Addai’s yardage down.  But he’s always a threat to get in the endzone with that offense.  Wayne will be Wayne and Peyton will be Peyton, and they’ll do what they do, but it’s going to be interesting to see who Manning favors in the #2 slot.  I tend to keep my #2 slot free of receivers, but I don’t judge.  Garcon, Collie and Baskett should see some work, but Garcon should be the starter.  Predicting his game is very tough, but he will get single coverage and if he can take advantage he could have a good game.  It’s a gamble and probably depends on how your matchup looks coming into this game. If you have the choice between Garcon and Bess and need 12 points to win or just 5 points to win I’d go Garcon with the former and Bess with the latter.

If I was one for prognostication I’d say the Colts will win tonight, but I’m more interested in the how and the who and the whaddayoudo!!

Mike Bell had a nice game against a good Philly D and then got himself injured.  We have to wait on the MRI, but it looks like he could miss some time or at least be limited.  The Saint’s running back situation is making my head hurt.  This gives Pierre Thomas owners a little hope as well as Bush owners.  Predicting this one is nearly impossible so we’ll have to keep a close eye on MRI’s and practices and tea leaves.

Steve Slaton: I’m going to give him another chance.  He’s faced two good run D’s in NY and Tennessee.  I can’t say I’m giddy with his play, but with the explosiveness of that offense you have to hold out hope and I think buying low is a good idea.

Mario Manningham: He looked great last night.  He has to be considered the Giants #1 receiver right now.  Pick him up unless you hate yourself.

Kevin Kolb: Well, I didn’t expect 51 pass attempts and 391 yards passing.  But that happens when you play the Saints.  He didn’t hurt Desean Jackson like I thought, but 3 picks isn’t exactly what you want to see.  They play the Chiefs next week and McNabb is doubtful to play so at least we now know he isn’t going to destroy everyone’s fantasy value.

Darren Sproles: He wasn’t used like a feature back, but he was used like he should be, on the edges and in the passing game.  If LT gets healthy you are still going to see Sproles all over the place.  Think Being John Malkovich, but with Sproles around every corner.

Brian Westbrook: He hurt his ankle.  We knew it was going to happen.  It will probably make him a game time decision which is where Westbrook feels most comfortable.  McCoy would have decent value next week if Westbrook doesn’t play.

Marion Barber: He had a turf snake jump up and bite his quad.  I have no clue how long he’ll be out, but Felix Jones could be huge if he is out for long.  And a big Felix Jones would be really hard to stop.

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