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Monthly Outlook
Close the Monthly Outlook boxPublished at 09:00 on 14th December
All times are GMT (Europe/London, GMT+0000)
(Next update at 09:00 on 21st December)
Written by Jay Wynne
Summary
Cold and quite dry at first. Unsettled later
December started on quite a wet note. With pressure low, there was a series of fronts bringing rain to most parts. During the last week we've seen atmospheric pressure rise, so the fronts have been kept at bay. It's dried up for most but we've also seen some harsh frost along with some dense and stubborn fog.
The same area of high pressure will be near to our shores until the end of the year, resulting in cold but relatively dry conditions. Early next year it stays cold but as pressure begins to fall we will see more changeable, wetter weather.
Monday 14 December 2009 to Sunday 20 December 2009
Cold winds
High pressure centred to the northwest of the UK will generate a cold and brisk north or northeasterly wind. With that temperatures will be on the low side both by day and night. It will feel very cold in the wind.
With the winds coming in over the North Sea, eastern areas are most likely to see some showers. Those showers will probably contain some sleet or snow. Western parts of the UK should be much drier and could fare quite well in terms of sunshine amounts. Elsewhere sunshine amounts will be near normal.
Monday 21 December 2009 to Sunday 27 December 2009
Cold and dry
High pressure dominates and edges a bit further south over the UK. Dry conditions will prevail with frost and fog returning. It stays cold with temperatures well below the norm by day and night.
Rainfall is expected to be in short supply, although there could be some wintry showers in southeast England. Sunshine amounts are are expected to be close to or above average.
Monday 28 December 2009 to Sunday 10 January 2010
Cold but more unsettled
Staying cold but turning more unsettled. Temperatures still below average and with more cloud around, sunshine amounts are also likely to be below average. There could be quite a bit of rain around and with such low temperatures, some snow is also likely.
Confidence in the forecast at this range is quite low.
Next week
Will mid-January bring a thaw to the big freeze?
Monthly forecasting
The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
BBC Weather in association with the Met Office
All times are GMT (Europe/London, GMT+0000)
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