Christmas Reading

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By Barry Ritholtz - December 25th, 2009, 4:00PM

I hope everyone is enjoying the holiday festivities. I managed to relax and do very little work today. But I did come across quite a number of interesting articles — these are worth a read, regardless of the holidays:

China Raises GDP Estimates, Closing in on Japan as Second-Biggest Economy (Bloomberg)

Stadium Boom Deepens Municipal Woes (NYT) In case you didn’t realize what a giant scam municiple funded stadiums were. Enormous transfer of wealth from taxpayers to the ultra-wealthy

U.S. Uncaps Support for Fannie, Freddie (WSJ)

What I Learned in 2009 (Barron’s)

Year in Review: Lessons from History–No Way Back to Cheap, Easy Credit (IMF)

The Elves Leave Middle Earth – Sodas Are No Longer Free What it means when successful startups start cutting back on the perks.

Fast, cheap, happy health care (MarketPlace) fascinating discussion of cheap affordable healthcare

New Film Ignites Debate on Ratings Policy: MPAA shows just how out of touch it is by slapping an R rating on Its Complicated, the new Merrill Streep/Alec Baldwin comedy. Why? Because they smoke a joint in one scene. Welcome to 1972!

Wired for War: Interesting new blog about the “Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 21st” Century

• My favorite holiday story this year: Chicago man’s friends gift-wrap everything he owns; An instant classic in prankdom (Chicago Sun Times)


What’s on your reading list?

Seasons Greetings!

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By Barry Ritholtz - December 25th, 2009, 2:00PM

My friend Lauren Stransky who owns the graphic design company, Stransky Studios Inc., is a terrific designer. Given her clients, you’ve probably seen her commercial work (but not known it). This was her holiday card, which I, with permission, have appropriated.

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You can see more samples of her work here:
www.stranskystudios.com
Graphic Design + Web + Branding + Logos + PPT Presentations
studio: 845-225-0057

Some Favorite Movies for Christmas

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By Barry Ritholtz - December 25th, 2009, 10:45AM

Merry Christmas morn. I trust you slept well?

Earlier this week, we discussed two of my favorite holiday movies — A Christmas Story, and my suggestion, Elf Dylan Ratigan show. (Be sure to watch Santa Announcement and The Angry Elf clips).

That got me thinking about some holiday favorites. I pinged a few movie buddies, and here is the list of both non-traditional xmas movies and good old fashioned family fare.

I don’t know what your plans might be for today — the only places that are open will be Chinese Restaurants and Movie theaters — but I plan on firing up the DVD player for some seasonal amusement.

My holiday movie list, form top to bottom, is as follows:

Elf: The movie: Will Farrell plays a man child raised as an elf at the North Pole. He is sent to the US to “find himself.” The casting is also inspired: James Caan, Bob Newhart, Edward Asner, Mary Steenburgen, Zooey Deschanel, Amy Sedaris, Andy Richter, Kyle Gass, Artie Lange, Leon Redbone.

Its Farrell at his hysterical, “committed performance” best.

A Christmas Story -  Formerly a cult classic, a gentle, satirical look at the early the late 1930s or early 1940s Christmas — long before irony was hip. Its amusing that this has become a modern classic, as it was overlooked for so long. Released in the era before Irony was ubiquitous, it now seems as traditional as they come, with just a hint of subversiveness. (Its 2nd only because I have seen it so many times . . . )

Bad Santa – Depravity of a hilarious kind, one of many great xmas caper films. Billy Bob Thornton plays a miserable conman who with his partner, pose as Santa and his Little Helper to rob department stores on Christmas Eve. But they run into problems when the conman befriends a troubled kid . . . Bonus flick: The Ice Harvest – Billy Bob and John Cusack in another caper comedy that’s more more noir than noel.)

Gremlins – Joe Dante’s 1984  American black comedy/horror film. I loved Phoebe Cates’ terrible Christmas memory told completely deadpan. No wonder critics didn’t get it. (Read the film criticism 25 years later for laughs).

Never forget the film’s most heartfelt holiday lesson: RTFM!

Home Alone – You have to love a holiday comedy that revels in sheer physical abuse of its antagonists, 3 Stooges style. The middle of the film — a 30 minute sequence of brutality where the bad guys — Joe Pesci and Daniel Stern — get demolished by 8 year old Macaulay Culkin.

Written by John Hughs, its his 2nd best film after Ferris Bueller’s Day Off.

The Nightmare Before Christmas – A stop motion fantasy film conceived and directed by Tim Burton Xmas Xraziness

The Ref – Another Xmas caper comedy, with a twist: Denis Leary (accidentally) takes a dysfunctional married couple hostage on Christmas Eve. The couple –played wonderfully by Kevin Spacey and Judy Davis — argue incessantly, and Leary becomes the accidental ref between them. A Christmas movie that reminds us its really all about family . . .

Scrooged – A funny, dark take on Charles Dickens’ A Christmas Carol. David Johansen is the ghost of Christmas past, and Carol Kane plays the ghost of Christmas present. Cameos include Robert Goulet, John Houseman, Lee Majors, along with “street musicians” Miles Davis, Larry Carlton, David Sanborn and Paul Shaffer. Al Green and Annie Lennox sing “Put a Little Love in Your Heart.”

The Muppet Christmas Carol – one of the better adaptations of the Dickens story

Santa Clause – ’cause every top 10 list requires a 10th item . . .

Lets not forget the top 10 classics:

It’s a Wonderful Life
Bells of St Marys
Bishop’s Wife
Miracle on 34th St
Holiday inn
Christmas Carol (1951 version is best)
White Xmas
Babes in Toyland (March of the Wooden Soldiers)
We’re No Angels
Christmas in Connecticut

Holiday Open Thread

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By Barry Ritholtz - December 24th, 2009, 6:15PM

So.

What say we give this stock market/investing thingie a break for a day, and spend the next 24 hours discussing “other.”

How is your holiday season going?

Anyone traveling this week? Seeing friends and family?

Did y’all shop til you dropped, or not-so-much? Spend less or more than usual?

Any one do any big counter-cyclical spending?

Got any plans for New Years?

What is the general gestalt around your nape neck of the woods?

The telephones are open, with operators standing by.

What say ye?

WWKD ?

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By Barry Ritholtz - December 24th, 2009, 2:15PM

Pardon the blasphemy, but this has to be the most amusingly titled book I’ve come across in years: What Would Keith Richards Do?: Daily Affirmations from a Rock and Roll Survivor.

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Enjoy your holidays!

S&P500 Bottoms vs Recessions

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By Barry Ritholtz - December 24th, 2009, 11:45AM

Over the past week, relatively good economic news (headlines, anyway) have some people discussing a recovery in 2010.

That got me thinking: If the market bottomed in March 09, how often does that anticipate an economic recovery ?

Ron Griess (of The Chart Store) had the answer.  Typically, the markets bottom 3, 4 or 5 months in advance of the recession’s end. However, it has been as much as 7 months (1954) and in 2001, the market did not bottom until 12 months after the recession’s end.

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S&P500 Bottoms vs Recessions

click for bigger chart

12,000th Post

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By Barry Ritholtz - December 24th, 2009, 10:15AM

Hey, while no one was looking on Tuesday, we passed our 12,000th post.

Truly insane . . .

Should Investment Firms Bet Against Their Clients?

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By Barry Ritholtz - December 24th, 2009, 6:42AM

“The simultaneous selling of securities to customers and shorting them because they believed they were going to default is the most cynical use of credit information that I have ever seen. When you buy protection against an event that you have a hand in causing, you are buying fire insurance on someone else’s house and then committing arson.”

-Sylvain R. Raynes, structured finance expert at R & R Consulting

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Should investment banks make bets against their own clients? How about when they create new synthetic products, sell that to their clients, and then make bets that their own products will collapse?

Those questions get a once over from Gretchen Morgenson and Louise Story in a long, front page piece in the NYT.

Of course, front and center in this mess is Goldman Sachs. Their PR people must be putting in big overtime hours these days.

Goldman points out that the C.D.O.’s were made to satisfy client demand for such products (at least for those folks who had an optimistic view of the housing market). Further, Goldman says their clients knew they might be taking the other side of bets against the mortgages that underlay the securities. GS’ last defense: Buyers of synthetic mortgage C.D.O.’s were well financed, sophisticated investors .

Here’s an excerpt:

“Mr. Egol, a Princeton graduate, had risen to prominence inside the bank by creating mortgage-related securities, named Abacus, that were at first intended to protect Goldman from investment losses if the housing market collapsed. As the market soured, Goldman created even more of these securities, enabling it to pocket huge profits.

Goldman’s own clients who bought them, however, were less fortunate.

Pension funds and insurance companies lost billions of dollars on securities that they believed were solid investments, according to former Goldman employees with direct knowledge of the deals who asked not to be identified because they have confidentiality agreements with the firm.

Note that other firms, such as Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley, also sold synthetic collateralized debt obligations and then bet against them. But no one else bet as much againstt heir own clients, and profited fromt hose bets, as Goldman Sachs did.

Congressional investigators, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and FINRA are all making inquiries into whether these “disastrously performing securities” violated any securities laws for “fair dealing.”

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click for larger graphic

Courtesy of NYT

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Source:
Banks Bundled Bad Debt, Bet Against It and Won
GRETCHEN MORGENSON and LOUISE STORY
NYT, December 23, 2009

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/24/business/24trading.html

Worldometers

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By Barry Ritholtz - December 23rd, 2009, 3:23PM

This set of global data is updated in real time; Things like:

Current World Population
Births this year
Births today
Deaths this year
Deaths today
Net population growth for today

How cool is THAT ?

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click for interactive graphic

You’ve Been Binged

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By Barry Ritholtz - December 23rd, 2009, 11:59AM

Alt headline: WTF Is This Bing Icon Doing on My BlackBerry ?

I haven’t seen much on this anywhere in the media: Most of my office suddenly noticed today that these damn Bing icons things on their BlackBerrys. And, you cannot delete the sticky little buggers (but you can hide it). If you want to use Google, there is no longer any app for that — you have to go to Google.com.

Apparently, this began getting rolled out back in November. It seemed to have gone wide recently.

I am totally offended by the latest stupidity of Verizon: I’m not sure who to be more upset at: Microsoft, for wanting to hijack my mobile device, or Verizon, for giving them permission. I used to think Mister Softee epitomized evil, but it now looks like they have a little buddy.

And in true Microsoft fashion, a spate of problems have come along with this new Icon. Are they related? I don’t know, but it sure as hell wouldn’t surprise me.

Time to go open source — this could be the greatest thing for competitors to these two behemoths ever . . .

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You can file an FCC complaint here

http://esupport.fcc.gov/complaints.htm