- The Guardian, Thursday 31 December 2009
With tax hikes and service cuts on the horizon, the prime minister's new year promise of a "decade of shared prosperity" will provoke wry smiles. This passing cheer in Gordon Brown's end-to-the-noughties podcast is amplified by the chancellor on our comment pages today. Labour's upbeat claims could prove hard to sustain at a time when the lack of full-time jobs has pushed part-time working to a record high. Pay rises are on the floor, and the twin spectres of eventual hikes in interest rates and market jitters about public debt haunt a recovery which has still not shown up in the hard data.
A true feelgood factor is years away, and the Kirkcaldy brand of new year celebrations will not rouse many voters to cheers. Mr Brown, however, is right to try and make the economy central to the political battle ahead. The electorate's gravest concerns are found on economic terrain, which is the same terrain where the Conservatives look most likely to slip up. For all the cliches about pocket-book voting, the link between economic and political pain is not automatic, but complex. The 1983 and 1992 elections saw Tory incumbents triumph over untrusted opponents in the midst of slumps. Despite squeezed incomes, the electorate felt that handing the reins to the devil they didn't know might have made them even poorer.
Ever since the brief bounce he secured by getting on the front foot at the depth of the crunch, Mr Brown has hoped to cash-in on the fears of cash-strapped voters – by convincing them that the debt-fixation of the other lot could make things very much worse. It was always going to be a hard sell, in part because middle England does not see David Cameron as the same sort of risk as Michael Foot. Until recently, though, the deeper problem was that unemployment was rocketing so rapidly that it already felt like a worst-case scenario, where there was nothing left to lose. Over the last few months, however, the freefall in the labour market seems to have been arrested.
Total unemployment is still likely to rise, but last month's figures showed a small upward tick in the tally of vacancies and a tiny reduction in the dole queue. These hopeful signs may not be sustained, but they confound the hopelessness of six months ago. While the causes are a matter of speculation, Mr Brown can plausibly argue that his mix of flexibility in individual markets and proactive management of the economy as a whole has helped to smooth the roughest edges. Making statistical amelioration feel real is tough – actual wage squeezes are bound to be more noticed than counterfactual threats to jobs that never came to pass. Nonetheless, a focus on jobs may be Mr Brown's last best hope of avoiding being made jobless himself.
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